I feel like this is an area where some interesting debate could take place.
Is it the frontrunner, Gavin Williams? Or do his walk tendencies disrupt that?
Is it a return to form for Tanner Bibee?
It it a fulfillment of potential for Joey Cantillo?
Is it a continuation of a strong rookie debut for Parker Messick?
Let us know who and why in the comments below!
The Mets fell to the Cardinals 6-0 and are now 2-2 in Grapefruit League action. Jonah Tong saw his first game action of spring and gave up a three-run home run in 2.2 innings of work. One of the candidates to make the bullpen, Adbert Alzolay, had a successful appearance in his one inning. Carson Benge was the standout on offense on an otherwise lackluster day. Benge went 3-for-3 with all three hits coming with two strikes.
Carson Benge hates striking out, which helps fuel him when he is down in the count.
Jonah Tong is in the process of developing a cutter, which he debuted against the Cardinals.
Brett Baty is happy to play anywhere in the field, hoping his versatility will keep him in the lineup.
Francisco Alvarez got the start at DH and will get behind the plate soon.
Francisco Lindor got the stitches from his surgery removed from his hand, and he is still on track for Opening Day.
Comedian John Oliver’s son was heartbroken when Pete Alonso left for the the Orioles, so now the Polar Bear is trying to convince him to become a Baltimore fan.
Bryce Elder was solid in his spring start for the Braves.
The Marlins’ bullpen has a few roles up for grabs with a few arms competing for spots.
New Phillie Brad Keller thinks moving to the bullpen helped revitalize his career with the Cubs, and he hopes he can be a key contributer in Philadelphia.
The Nationals have started off spring playing well, but their defense still could use some improvement.
The Yankees are retiring CC Sabathia’s number with a ceremony in September.
Harrison Bader left an apology note after his home run ball dented a food truck.
During his game Josh Naylor made sure to greet and welcome home-plate umpire Jen Pawol, who became the first woman in history to umpire an MLB regular-season game last season.
Who are the top hitting prospects for each team?
Brian Salvatore wondered why Ji Hwan Bae is a Met.
Happy birthday, Kevin Plawecki!
Finding value is a huge part of fantasy baseball success. While you need to hit on your early-round picks, finding key contributors late in the draft is a surefire way to rocket up your standings. For me, the best place to find value is with starting pitching. I started this article three years ago to identify some starting pitchers who weren’t getting enough love in drafts. In that first season in 2023, I was able to hit on Kyle Bradish, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Miller, and the next year, we hit on Jared Jones and Reese Olson, andthen last year, we landed on Lucas Giolito and Jack Leiter, who both finished inside the top 65 starters, but missed on Zebby Matthews, Jose Soriano, and Max Meyer.
The premise for this article came from The Process, by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell. In the book, they report that, in 12-team leagues, 45% of undrafted pitchers finish the season in the top 108 starting pitchers. They also found that 20% of undrafted pitchers in 12-team leagues end up inside the top 25 in season-long value and that 50% of undrafted pitchers will have top-25 weekly value at some point in the season. If you can find one of those pitchers who finishes with top 25 value, woo boy.
The goal for today is to try to unearth who those pitchers might be. Even though the top 108 pitchers drafted in these leagues include relievers, we’re going to focus on just starting pitchers who are being drafted outside of the top 108 pitchers because, statistically speaking, it’s far more likely for a starter to catapult into the top 25 than for an undrafted reliever.
For me, there are a few things that I’m looking for when trying to find a starting pitcher who could jump to the top of the heap.
The ADP used is from February 11th to February 26th in NFBC Online Championships, which is 23 drafts.
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
I just wanted to briefly mention Joey Cantillo, who is being drafted as the 106th pitcher off the board in February drafts, which puts him close to this cut-off but not eligible. I wrote about him in my post-hype pitchers article, and I really like him for this season. I also really like Kodai Senga, who is the 105th pitcher being drafted, and Troy Melton, but I think he's the 7th starting pitcher in Detroit, so he's just a name to keep an eye on if injuries give him a shot in the rotation.
Chance at 130 innings: Right off the bat, we have a small knock against Ashcraft. He has never thrown more than 118 innings in a professional season, in part because he had Tommy John surgery in 2021, but also because he had meniscus surgery in 2020 and injured his non-throwing shoulder in 2019. However, that 118-inning season was just last year, which means that 130 innings is well within his reach this season, and I'm not overly concerned with his innings.
Strikeout Upside: Ashcraft had a 24% strikeout rate last year, with a 16.1% K-BB% and a 13.2% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). That's pretty solid. His slider is a strong swing-and-miss pitch to righties with a 21% SwStr% and a 25% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch ends in a strikeout. He uses that slider 35% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, and because it acts more like a cutter, he can dot it in the zone or throw it off the plate. It gives him plenty of strikeout upside to righties. To lefties, he can also go to his slider. It is his most used two-strike pitch to lefties and has a 21% PutAway Rate, which is above-average. However, he also has a curve that is a hard-diving 84 mph offering that he can command in the zone or bury underneath it. That pitch also has a 24% PutAway rate versus lefties, which gives him multiple avenues to attack them.
Fastball Success: This is another slight issue for Ashcraft. His four-seam fastball is below-average. It sits at 97 mph, but Ashcraft has below-average extension on it, just average vertical movement, and it's relatively flat, but he keeps it low in the zone more than you'd like. He can throw it for strikes, but it gets hit hard by both righties and lefties. Righties do far more damage on the four-seamer, which is relevant because Ashcraft added in a sinker that he uses just as often to righties as his four-seamer. That sinker not only limits hard contact but also induces a surprising number of whiffs to righties. I'd really love to see this become his primary fastball to righties because he needs to limit the use of that four-seamer.
Deep Pitch Mix: Ashcraft has five pitches, but really only four because he didn't throw his changeup enough in 2025. He has three pitches he can throw to lefties (four-seam, curve, and slider), and he uses all four of his main pitches to righties. Considering his four-seam fastball is a below-average pitch, I do worry a little bit about his approach to lefties. If we consider his slider to be a cutter, then he at least has one fastball variation to lefties. However, a changeup or another pitch that he can throw away would be beneficial and could add more strikeout upside.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 2/10.I think Ashcraft will be solid, but I don't have tons of confidence that he has the strikeout upside to vault into the top 25 since he is also on a team that may not get him double-digit wins.
Chance at 130 innings: We’ve seen Sean Manaea do this before, so there should be no doubt about his ability to put up volume. The only reason he didn’t last year was because of an injury that delayed his start to the season, and then the Mets decided to bring him back as more of a piggyback starter after they had already called up their young starting pitching prospects. The left-hander pitched 181.1 innings in 2024 and finished as the 21st-ranked starting pitcher, according to FanGraph's Player Rater, so we know he has it in him.
Strikeout Upside: Even in a poor season last year, Manaea posted a 28.5% strikeout rate and 14.1% SwStr%, so he showed the ability to miss bats. A big part of that is a four-seam fastball that posted a 15.2% SwStr% to righties. I expect Manaea to go back to the sinker more in 2026, which means that he can use the four-seamer as a swing-and-miss pitch late in the count more often. He also has a sweeper that carves up lefties, and a changeup that had a league average SwStr% to righties in 2024 and had a strong PutAway Rate in a small sample in 2025. This isn't the profile of a major strikeout arm, but getting back to about one strikeout per inning makes sense to me.
Fastball Success: We covered above that his fastballs are solid pitches. The four-seamer misses plenty of bats against righties, but it also gets hit harder because he struggles to get it inside on their hands. The sinker was a better strike fastball for him in 2024, which helped him to get ahead in the count. In 2024, he also did a great job of getting his four-seamer up to left-handed hitters, which paired well with the sinker that he could run in on their hands. When they work as a pair, it gives Manaea a solid fastball foundation.
Deep Pitch Mix: If we go back to 2024, because Manaea was hurt for most of last season, the left-hander used four pitches to righties in his sinker, sweeper, four-seam, and changeup. He also mixed in a cutter 8% of the time and a harder slider 6% of the time. He was predominantly just a sinker and sweeper to lefties, but he did use his four-seamer 11% of the time, while mixing in his other offerings around 5%. I'd expect him to get back to that deep mix, which has always been crucial to his success.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. We've seen him do it before, and the Mets have so many unproven or erratic starters that they are going to count on Manaea for length to help save their bullpen.
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns toNBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Chance at 130 innings: Zebby threw 116 innings last year while battling through some injuries and threw 134.2 innings in 2024, so he should have no problem pushing close to 150. I already thought he was a better fit in the rotation than Taj Bradley or Simeon Woods-Richardson, and then Pablo Lopez got hurt, which opened up another spot. I think Zebby is all but assured a spot in Minnesota's rotation to start the season.
Strikeout Upside: Zebby’s slider is a plus pitch. It had a 22% SwStr% last year, and it’s effective to both righties and lefties because it’s a hard, gyro slider. He throws it often in two-strike counts to all hitters, and it has plus PutAway Rates to both, with an elite 28% rate to lefties. Having a platoon neutral secondary like that is an awesome foundation. He also has a cutter, which gets swings and misses against lefties, but he uses it low in the zone 51% of the time, and it gets hit hard, so it's not a true asset yet. I’d like to see him jam lefties inside with it more and at least use it up and down the zone because I know he likes to use it to set up the slider against lefties because it can be hard to tell the difference. His changeup is just average, but it doesn’t get hit hard, and his curveball actually grades out as a decent pitch, but one that he struggles to command as well as we’d like. So, really, he posted a solid 14% SwStr% in 2025, but his swings and misses are reliant on the slider and the four-seam fastball unless another pitch improves.
Fastball Success: In his final start of last season, Zebby was sitting just under 96 mph with his four-seam fastball. That’s one mph up from 2024. It’s a flat fastball with mediocre extension that he commands well in the zone, which leads to above-average swinging strike rates against both righties and lefties. I understand that it’s not an elite fastball, and it did get hit hard last year, but he has proven that he can miss bats with it, especially if he starts to use the cutter and sinker more often to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer. I do love that he has three fastball variations.
Deep Pitch Mix: Having three fastball variations and an elite secondary is a good foundation for success. He's four-seam, slider, cutter to righties, with the sinker mixed in 9% of the time, and his curve and change both around 6%. That's basically a four-pitch mix. Against lefties, he uses the four-seam almost 40% of the time, and the slider 21% of the time, plus his change and cutter 15% of the time, for a more true four-pitch mix. But that's more than enough pitches to keep hitters of each handedness guessing.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. I see the pieces there, and Zebby's underlying metrics suggest he was better than his results last year. Some improvement in cutter location or some tweak to the changeup or curve could unlock another level for him.
Chance at 130 innings: Messick is another pitcher whose draft price is impacted by the fact that he's not projected to start the season in the rotation. That final spot is, according to FanGraphs, projected to go to Logan Allen, but here's the thing: I think Messick is just better. The 25-year-old pitched to a 2.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 38/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 big league innings last year. He threw 138.1 innings overall last season and 133.2 innings in 2024. I don't think there would be any limit on his innings if he wins a spot in this rotation.
Strikeout Upside: Messick had a 19.4% K-BB% and 12% SwStr% in his seven starts last year, but I believe there is enough strikeout upside here because, wait for it, he's a lefty with a really good changeup. It had a 16.1% SwStr% against righties, and he got league-average called strike rates on it and also used it 44% of the time in two-strike counts while registering an 18.3% PutAway Rate, which was above league average. His four-seamer also had above-average swinging strike rates to righties, and even though he only used it 26% of the time in two-strike counts, it had an absurd 26% PutAway Rate, which suggests that it plays well up in the zone as a complementary two-strike weapon. Against lefties, his four-seamer performed even better, with a 33% PutAway Rate, but he primarily used a slider, which didn't get many two-strike swings and misses. However, his curve had a 27% SwStr% against lefties overall and a 33.3% PutAway rate, so perhaps that's a pitch he can rely on more often against lefties in 2026.
Fastball Success: Messick's four-seam fastball grades out well despite being just 93 mph. He has league-average extension on the pitch but solid vertical movement and a flat attack angle. He gets it up in the zone well against lefties and has a whippy delivery while hiding the ball behind his back, which makes it tough for hitters to pick up. He also does a good job pounding the zone with the fastball, so it's not only a good foundation pitch to get ahead in the counts, but he can miss bats with it when he needs to go to it for strikeouts too.
Deep Pitch Mix: Messick is basically a five-pitch pitcher to right-handed hitters, using his four-seam, changeup, and curveball primarily, but he also uses his slider 9.5% of the time and his sinker 9% of the time. Against lefties, he's really only a three-pitch pitcher, using his four-seam, slider, and sinker; although, I think there is a path forward to slightly increasing his curveball usage and being a true four-pitch arm to lefties, which would give him a truly deep arsenal.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. Messick has most of what we look for in a late-round breakout pick. He has a deep arsenal and a track record of missing bats in the minors. His starting spot might be the biggest question mark in addition to pitching on a team that has no problem going to its bullpen early in a game.
Chance at 130 innings: Painter threw 106.2 innings last year in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, so 130 innings is well within his reach. He's currently listed as the number five starter in Philadelphia, but I'm not a Taijuan Walker believer, so it wouldn't surprise me if Painter was really more of their fourth starter and remained in the rotation when Zack Wheeler eventually returns.
Strikeout Upside: Painter has a big fastball that hit triple-digits in the minors last season. J.T. Realmuto had some really nice things to say about how easy the fastball comes out of Painter’s hand, and also compared Painter to Wheeler in terms of the way that he can attack the edges with plus stuff. Ralmuto also noted that "last year, he was just leaving some balls in the middle of the plate or getting behind in some counts" as he struggled with command post-surgery. Again, we should expect command struggles in the first year after surgery, so that doesn't concern us. We care about the fact that he can attack the strike zone with his arsenal that also features a plus slider that he can throw in the zone and for whiffs. He also has a slower sweeper that he can use for whiffs to righties and has been messing around with his changeup to add more drop and get more whiffs to lefties.
Fastball Success: You'd think, because his four-seam sits around 97 mph, that it's an elite pitch, but it's not really. It has 17 inches of vertical break, which we like to see, but he has below-average extension, and his command of it isn't ideal, and he struggles to get it in on the hands of lefties. I'd love to see him elevate that pitch more often, and perhaps another year removed from Tommy John surgery will allow him to do that. If his fastball can be more "good" than "OK," then he has a real chance to break out with his strong collection of secondaries.
Deep Pitch Mix: Painter has a legitimate six-pitch mix. In the minors, he attacked righties with a four-seam, slider, and curve, and then mixed in his sweeper and sinker. Against lefties, he went with a four-seam primarily and then threw his curve, slider, and changeup all around 15%. That makes him essentially a four-pitch pitcher to both righties and lefties, and we love that. Does he carry that over against big league hitters?
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. His upside is about as high as anybody on this list. Can he put it all together in his first taste of MLB action?
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns toNBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Chance at 130 innings: I know people think of Seymour as a reliever because 14 of his 19 appearances with Tampa Bay last year came out of the pen, but he is actually a starting pitching prospect that they brought up to pitch out of the bullpen because their rotation was full. He threw 145.1 innings in 2024 as a full-time starter and threw 143 innings last year, split between the major and minor leagues. There is no innings cap on him this season. Your only argument against him getting innings is that you believe both Joe Boyle and Steven Matz will beat him out for a spot in the rotation, and I just don't.
Strikeout Upside: Like a few pitchers in this article, Ian Seymour is a SWATCH. He used his changeup 32% of the time last year and threw it to both righties and lefties. To lefties, he keeps it in the zone often, locating it well in the lower third of the zone but not always inside. It still boasts an above-average SwStr% and a plus PutAway Rate, but it’s more of a strike pitch because he also has a sweeper that he uses 43% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties. Against righties, Seymour keeps his changeup in the zone far less often, but it gets a tremendous 20% SwStr% because of all the chases he gets by keeping the pitch low and away. He uses it almost 40% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and has an 84th percentile PutAway Rate on it. It’s a great offering.
Fastball Success: His four-seam fastball is a good pitch against lefties and a mediocre pitch against righties. However, he keeps it up in the zone well to righties, which is important because that’s also where he throws a cutter that he uses 27% of the time to righties. That fastball pairing is really just about limiting damage and then setting him up to use the changeup. He also has a sinker that he’ll mix in to lefties, so he has a deep enough arsenal to get ahead in counts and then set up his lethal weapon. All of that is enticing.
Deep Pitch Mix: Seymour will use primarily three pitches to righties (four-seam, changeup, and cutter), but the changeup is so elite that I think that's plenty. Against lefties, he has five pitches that he uses at least 10% of the time: four-seamer (29%), changeup (24%), sweeper (22%), sinker (15%), and cutter (10%). That's more than enough offerings for me.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. I really like Seymour this year. I think we're in for a legit breakout. This would be a 6 or 7 grade if I knew for certain he had a starting spot.
Chance at 130 innings: We’ve seen Detmers do this before, so there is very little doubt he can reach 130 innings. Oftentimes, we make the mistake of extrapolating total innings pitched for a reliever moving into the rotation and assuming that he'll follow up a 66-inning season with something around 110 innings, but that's not how it works. Pitching at max effort multiple times a week is just as taxing, if not more, on your arm than starting once every five days. Detmers has thrown 148.2 innings before and could easily do it again.
Strikeout Upside: From June 1st on last year, Detmers posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate. His slider eats up lefties with a 24% SwStr%. As a reliever, Detmers also went to his curve more often. He threw it 15% of the time to righties as a starter in 2024, but 25% of the time in 2025. The pitch doesn’t really miss bats, but he threw it 76% of the time early in counts, where he was able to pound the strike zone and produced a 93rd-percentile called strike rate. That would help take pressure off of the four-seam fastball and set up his slider, which had a 75th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties. His four-seam fastball also had a 90th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties as Detmers got it up in the zone far more often. So while we should feel confident that Detmers can strike out lefties, his ability to strike out righties will be linked to whether or not his approach carries over and if he can use secondary pitches to set up his four-seamer or slider for whiffs. However, he did throw a changeup to righties 20% of the time in 2024 and registered a near 17% SwStr% on it and an above-average PutAway Rate, so maybe he brings that back in.
Fastball Success: Detmer's four-seam fastball is fine. It sits around 94 mph with below-average extension but good vertical movement and is flat enough to succeed up in the zone, which is where he attacked way more often in 2025. At least against righties. That's part of the reason his four-seamer had a 19% SwStr% to righties last year, and I think he'll stick with that approach. He relied on his slider far more against lefties, and I think Detmers can be slider/curve focused to lefties and just mix in his four-seam and sinker to keep them honest.
Deep Pitch Mix: Detmers will rely mostly on his four-seam, slider, and curve to righties, but if he brings that changeup back in, he'd have four offerings that he can use at least 15% of the time to righties. Lefties are likely to see mainly sliders, which I'm OK with, but he'll also use the four-seamer and curve and add in the sinker about 7% of the time. It's not the deepest mix you've seen, but it's plenty deep enough.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. Detmers was a former top prospect who may have taken a circuitous route to putting it all together, but there's a compelling argument that time in the bullpen may have sharpened his approach enough to get the most out of his stuff.
Chance at 130 innings: Eflin dealt with a lower back injury throughout the 2025 season. It may have begun as he was trying to pitch through a lat strain and was compensating in ways that aggravated his back, but he wound up having to undergo lumbar microdiscectomy surgery, which is a "minimally invasive" procedure that removes a portion of a slipped disc in the lower back that had been pressing on the nerve. Eflin began throwing again in December and is a full participant in spring training, so we shouldn't see much risk for innings.
Strikeout Upside: For this section, I think we need to look beyond 2025. We know that Eflin was pitching through injuries last year, but he had a 26.5% strikeout rate in 2023, and I think there is enough here to at least push a 21% mark, which would give him about 8 K/9. Last year, his sweeper had a nearly 22% SwStr% to righties, and his curve posted an above-average 14.5% mark to righties. Neither one of those pitches delivered in two-strike counts, but I think that likely has a lot to do with the location not being as precise as Eflin wanted it. Likely due to the back injury. Against lefties, his curve also posted a 17% SwStr%, but again, failed to deliver in two-strike counts. There isn't tons of strikeout upside here, but Eflin does have two pitches that he can miss bats with, so there is a foundation to work from.
Fastball Success: Eflin is a cutter/sinker guy primarily, but he does use a four-seam fastball 15% of the time against lefties as well, so we're dealing with three fastballs here. He relies mainly on the sinker to righties and the cutter to lefties, and while those pitches don't miss bats, he does a good enough job of locating both in the zone, and they both limit hard contact. The sinker in particular has been a good groundball pitch for him against righties, so I like that combo as a foundation for his arsenal.
Deep Pitch Mix: This is partially where Eflin shines. He throws six pitches at least 9% of the time to righties, led by his sinker, sweeper, and curve. He also throws five pitches at least 15% of the time to lefties, led by the cutter, changeup, and curve. That's a really deep pitch mix that can help mess with a hitter's timing and keep them off the barrel. It's also part of the season that Eflin posted such strong WHIPs from 2022-2024, and I believe he can do that again.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. There isn't a lot of strikeout upside here, which makes it hard to see a huge ceiling, but the only people pushing Eflin for innings in Baltimore are Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, and Brandon Young. The path for Eflin is 150-170 innings of solid ratios on a good team that pushes him to 12-14 wins. That is how you get a top 25 season, but I think you're more likely to just get a solid top 50 season, which still makes him worth where he's being drafted.
Chance at 130 innings: Between his MLB action and his Triple-A innings, Latz threw 101 innings last year, so a jump to 130 isn't that crazy, and it's more likely that he reaches 150 innings. Now, that is something that he hasn't done in professional baseball, but Latz only has one major injury, with an elbow sprain back in 2019. He has just been in a hybrid role in the past, but I think this year he has a good shot to stick in the starting rotation.
Strikeout Upside: Latz had just a 22% strikeout rate last year, so you may not believe that there's too much upside here, but he also had a 14.6% swinging strike rate, which is really appealing. As a left-handed pitcher, he has a changeup that he throws 30% of the time to righties and posts a 21.6% SwStr%. He only uses it in two-strike counts to righties 29% of the time, but it has an above-average PutAway Rate, so I think we could see some strikeout growth if he leans on the changeup more. His slider has also performed well in two-strike counts to righties, so he does have multiple avenues to attack them. It's actually lefties who hit his slider better because it doesn't have sweeper break. It had just league-average swinging strike rates to lefties and below league-average PutAway Rate, so the real issue for Latz may be how he gets swings and misses against lefties.
Fastball Success: Latz's fastball is a solid pitch. It sits at 94 mph with above-average extension and elite vertical break, which gives it a flat attack angle. He uses it up in the zone well, particularly against righties, which is why the swinging strike rate is higher against them. The pitch doesn't perform as well to lefties, but he attacks the zone with it well. If he had a sinker that he could jam inside to lefties, that might not only make the four-seam play up more but also set up the slider away even better. That could be a crucial pitch for Latz to develop.
Deep Pitch Mix: At the end of the day, Latz has a true three-pitch mix to righties, while mixing in the curveball about 8% of the time, but is just a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, while using his changeup 9% of the time against them. This is another place where we can come back to a sinker being a good addition for Latz, so we should keep an eye out for that. As it stands, Latz has a good fastball and a plus changeup to righties, and we saw guys like Noah Cameron ride that to a strong season in 2025. Latz could duplicate that type of success even without the sinker, but I think he'll need to improve his swing-and-miss to lefties to truly break out.
Confidence to finish in the top 25: 2/10.
Tolle rocketed through the Red Sox system last season, beginning the year in High-A and then finishing by throwing 16.1 innings for the Red Sox. It's the type of rapid ascent that usually denotes a clear breakout season on the horizon, but the Red Sox added so much depth to their starting rotation this offseason that Tolle seems likely to begin the year in Triple-A. However, if he does get a chance to pitch for the Red Sox, he's absolutely somebody to watch. At 6'6", 250 pounds, Tolle is a huge dude, and his four-seam fastball could be the pitch in the minor leagues. He can command it well in the zone, and he also posted an absurd 23% swinging-strike rate. The pitch has elite extension, which helps the average velocity play up. In fact, many of the metrics on the fastball don't stand out, but the arm angle and his command of it help it to produce elite results. He also adds to that a slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Those pitches certainly need refinement, but the Red Sox were working on that last year. He changed his changeup into a kick change, added a curveball, and then also added a cutter, which he used a ton in his brief MLB sample size. It often takes a while for new pitches to click, and last season was Tolle's first season ever in professional baseball, so it makes sense to assume there will be continued growth in 2026.
Robbie Snelling may be the starting pitching prospect in Miami who gets an MLB chance first, but Thomas White is the higher upside option. The 17th overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, finished last season by just annihilating Double-A hitters, which earned him two starts in Triple-A. On the season, he had a 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 145/51 K/BB ratio in 89.2 innings. He's always been good, but his strikeout rate jumped to the next level this season because of the addition of a kick-changeup. As you've read a bunch of times in this article, left-handed pitchers with elite changeups tend to be really hard to hit, and we can add Thomas White to that list. The pitch had some consistency issues last year, but it was his first year with the new grip, and I think it will be a major piece to complement his good four-seam fastball, gyro slider that he can command well inside the zone, and sweeper that he uses for swings and misses. Miami has a few weak links in its rotation now, so it wouldn't be crazy for White to get an MLB start before June is done.
Edwin Díaz pitched a scoreless frame in his Dodgers debut on Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields, working around a single with a strikeout in the fourth inning.
The plan is for Díaz to pitch once more for the Dodgers this week before joining Puerto Rico for the World Baseball Classic.
“I had to ramp up a little more quickly than normal,” Díaz said Wednesday of his offseason, as shown on SportsNet LA. “I prepared myself in the offseason to be ready right now, and I’m feeling really good and ready to go.”
Roki Sasaki threw a cutter 11 times in his 36 pitches on Wednesday against Arizona, a pitch per Baseball Savant he did not throw at all last regular season. That was among the things the second-year Dodger was working on in his first outing, but he showed similar results to his starts last season, with poor fastball command. In all, Sasaki allowed three runs on three hits, including a pair of doubles, and two walks. He struck out three but also threw more balls (19) than strikes (17).
From David Brandt at Associated Press:
“I thought he was overthrowing,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I haven’t seen that all spring. It’s probably just getting into live competition. I thought he was a little too bullish on the fastball, but he was getting behind in the first inning.”
River Ryan on Wednesday pitched in his first game since August 10, 2024, part of the long road back from Tommy John surgery. He pitched a scoreless inning with a strikeout, working around a walk, and threw more balls (11) than strikes (eight), but was an important milestone nonetheless.
“It was a big step just to get out there and compete against another team. I still think he’s a ways away as far as fine tuning, but just to get out there in compete mode and not rehab mode, that’s a good thing,” Roberts said, as shown on SportsNet LA. “He’s off to a good start, he feels good. Just kind of honing in those pitches and he’ll be just fine.”
He’s also in Dodgers camp with his brother Ryder, a non-roster invitee, who as Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register noted was the Ryan brothers’ first time as teammates since 2014, when the pair were in high school together. From Plunkett:
“Hopefully our schedules line up so we can throw in the same game,” River said. “That would be really cool.”
Dodgers announcers Stephen Nelson and José Mota will call Pool C in the World Baseball Classic in Tokyo, on the world feed.
Last week, Camden Chat’s Tyler Young wrote of Kyle Bradish: “All of this offseason talk around the Orioles’ ‘need’ for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house.”
I’d venture to say they might even have two.
That belief, of course, depends on how much you’re banking on Trevor Rogers’ 2025 breakthrough being sustainable. The lefty, who’d been all but written off after his rough O’s debut in 2024, was a revelation last year, breaking franchise and MLB records on his way to a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts and earning Most Valuable Oriole honors. He was the Birds’ shining light in an otherwise dismal season, and he’ll most certainly be starting one of the Orioles’ first two games of the year.
The projection systems, though, are not sold that Rogers has turned into a true ace.
While even the most optimistic Orioles fans probably aren’t expecting Rogers to post a 1.81 mark again, the projections predict a particularly sharp regression of more than 200 points of ERA. They also forecast that even if he gets 7-8 more starts than last year, he’ll be worth far less than the 3.3 WAR he posted in 2025.
The projections don’t have any vendetta or personal beef against Rogers. Remember: they aren’t human. They’re just formulas, spitting out numbers based on a whole bunch of data. And in this case, Rogers’ less-than-stellar career up until 2025 waters down the projections for his 2026 season. In his three previous years, he posted ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92. And his 2025 stats, while mind-blowing, came in just 18 starts, just over half of a season’s worth. So it’s no surprise that the emotionless, unfeeling computers aren’t predicting great things for his 2026 campaign.
But what about you, Camden Chatters? What do you think Rogers is capable of this season? Let us know in the comments.
Chase DeLauter was a last minute scratch in yesterday’s Spring Training game against the Texas Rangers. All reports are saying the scratch was out of an abundance of caution when DeLauter reported lower body soreness following the heavy on-field activity to open camp. DeLauter was already not scheduled to play today.
Yesterday also saw Steven Kwan playing center field. Unfortunately the game was not televised or broadcasted anywhere so there is nothing to really report on his performance.
José is already looking to be in great form, having hit two home runs so far this Spring. He technically hit three, but the umps called on a ground rule double, proving they too need Spring Training to get warmed up.
Off the field, José continues to be as great as he is on the field. José teamed up with Franklin Sports to release his own line of limited edition batting gloves. In addition to releasing his own design, José is donating 75 pairs of batting gloves to the Cleveland RBI baseball and softball teams.
The ABS challenge system is in full display at Spring Training. Multiple major league players are testing their eye by utilizing the system previously only reserved for the minor leagues. There has been some entertaining results, including Matt Olson challenging a Paul Skenes pitch that was originally ruled a strike and overturned to a ball.
LGFT CC Sabathia’s number will be retired by the New York Yankees this September.
When I added Nathan Church to the vote, I compared him to Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak. I’d like to apologize for doing so. I ridiculed those choices and I’m not going to do the same for Church. I don’t know where Church will place on my list, but him being on the list makes sense. He appears to be a defensive-oriented prospect who we hope can hit, who in fact did hit a lot in both AA and AAA and he’s still going to be 25-years-old. He certainly fits the profile of a top 20 prospect in a way I don’t think the other two did. This may be the first year where the voters don’t make an outright bad choice, so good job so far!
Comparable Player Poll
I’m going to do something a bit more unconventional for this vote. You see I couldn’t figure out a good player to compare Hancel Rincon with. Namely, I couldn’t figure out a vote where the result didn’t already seem obvious to me. Unless you guys are significantly higher or lower on him than I think anyway. So I’m forcing him into a vote here today. It is a vote between him and two pitchers who won their own three-person polls.
Andrew Dutkanych IV was drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft, and was widely considered a higher round talent who dropped because he had Tommy John surgery earlier that year. Last year, in mostly rehab appearances, he showed swing-and-miss, but also some control problems in 9 total appearances, 6 of them in Low A. He’ll be 22 this season.
Mason Molina was also drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft by the Brewers. He lasted two appearances and was traded to the Rangers for middle reliever Grant Anderson. He saw time in both Low A and High A before being included in a trade for Phil Maton. He had a lot of swing and miss, but also had some control problems in High A. He’ll be 22 this season.
Hancel Rincon was not drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft, but was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2019. The pandemic delayed his progress and he found himself still in the DSL in the 2021 season. He didn’t show much as a prospect until this past season when he pitched well in High A and then pitched REALLY well in AA until an injury ended his season prematurely. He will be 24.
New Add
Sometimes, I’m forced to pay attention when I run a player in a comparable player poll – and they absolutely wipe out the competition. I ran Won-Bin Cho, who ranked 21st on last year’s list (I think? He ran against Max Rajcic for the 20th best prospect, but the results are lost to history), Zach Levenson, and Colton Ledbetter against each other. Ledbetter received more than half the vote. That got my attention.
Now I don’t think you guys think Cho is the 21st best prospect – it’s a better system and you might have possibly lowered your opinion of him – nonetheless when a guy easily wins a vote against that guy, I feel there’s a possibility you consider him a top 20 prospect. So I’m listening to what the votes are telling me. The votes are telling me to add Colton Ledbetter to the voting.
Jesus Baez, IF – 21
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
I really appreciate the players who I add to the list and leave pretty quickly, because I run out of new things to say at a certain point and that point was quite a few votes ago for Baez. You understand the deal. He is very young for his level, and seemingly acts like it, but performance-wise, it’s kind of hard to argue against the kid. Likely to end up at either 2B or 3B, although that is true for just about any notable infield prospect thanks to the presence of Masyn Winn.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP
Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command
It’s always tough to judge a prospect like Fajardo, who is sort of absurdly young for the level he will pitch at in 2026. Granted, they might put him back in Low A, because he only made 13 starts and he is still only 19. But he is at least on the doorstep to High A. He’s already built up to throw 71 innings and at the lower levels, he missed a lot of bats. All of these are good signs. The scouting numbers are sort of underwhelming, but hard to scoff at 50 potential command and an elite out pitch at the same time.
Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA
Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command
Let’s hope we get good news on Henderson, but for now we are firmly in the uncertain stage. I’ve mentioned it before, but for some reason Henderson’s injury, even if serious, feels like a slight hiccup to me – I’m currently not worried long-term about his injury-proneness. But I don’t have a good reason for that. Feels like a rite of passage for all pitchers. But, it is not guaranteed that he will have a serious injury either. Good luck in figuring out how to weigh this information for your vote.
Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP
Didn’t pitch
Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command
It’s possible I feel that way about Henderson because my comparison point is Cooper Hjerpe. Hjerpe has a higher upside, but has had significant issues with injuries. We’re hoping that the Tommy John solved those issues, that all the previous injuries were in some way connected to the fact that his arm needed to be repaired. Thus repaired, he can be healthy for at least some stretch of time. And we should find out this year somewhat – he had the surgery in April of last year, so he should pitch in 2026.
Colton Ledbetter, 24 – OF
Stats (AA): 535 PAs, .265/.337/.378, 9.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, .114 ISO, .339 BABIP, 112 wRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 50/50 Fielding
You might be mistaken for double checking his stats and scouting numbers, because they don’t exactly line up. It makes more sense if you include his 2024 into the equation. He had actual power in High A, but struck out quite a bit. Actually his 2024 season lines up pretty well with the scouting. It doesn’t mean the scouting is outdated, because the effort to strike out less by Ledbetter seemingly led to a big drop in power. The power may not exist without the bad hit tool. Of course if he manages to maintain the K rate and add power, well then we may have something here.
Chen-Wei Lin, 24 – RHP
Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.17 xFIP
High A: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA/4.80 FIP/2.76 xFIP
What a crazy season. Limited by injuries – you’ll notice the innings per start is pretty low – he struggled with control all season. Walked a lot of guys. But he also struck out a lot of guys and I actually find it crazy that he struck out 20 of the 48 batters he faced in Springfield. Other things went wrong, but that’s a lot of strikeouts. I’d like his stats a lot more if he had thrown 5 innings per start.
Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF
No stats
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 25/50 Game Power, 40/55 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 25/50 Fielding
I apologize, when I re-added Mitchell to the voting, I don’t think I realized he now had scouting numbers on his Fangraphs pages. Mitchell was drafted out of high school, so we should probably expect him to play in the complex leagues, although he is really, really worth paying attention to if the Cardinals send him to full-season Low A ball out the gate. He might be kept in minor league camp later even if they plan for him to start in Low A, just because it’s tough to jump from a high school baseball schedule to a 5 month schedule in A ball.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Scouting (Baseball Savant): /45 Hit, /55 Power, /55 Arm, /45 Field
Thank you to Steve in Alabama – not a random guy I met from Alabama, that is the username of a commentator here – for sharing that Baseball Savant has given Ortiz some scouting grades. He wondered if those were current or potential, but I am relatively sure those are potential grades. They aren’t giving a guy in High A a current power number of 55. And it more less tracks with his stats as well. He has shown swing-and-miss and that is considered his weakness so it makes sense he has a 45 hit tool. Power actually seems high, but I’ll certainly take it, and keep in mind both Low A and High A are not good places for power hitters. And I don’t believe his defense is considered anything to write home about either.
Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field
Presumably, Padilla will be spending the 2026 season in full-season Low A. That means he’ll be at Palm Beach, an incredibly hard place to have power. I would not not necessarily expect his potential power to show up and really any increase in power, however marginal, should be seen as a huge positive given the difficult run environment he will be entering. But yeah as things stand, it doesn’t seem like 2026 will answer the question on Padilla’s power and if it does, he’s going to be way higher on this list next season.
Tai Peete, OF – 20
Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+
Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding
You guys still surprise me sometimes, but I also feel like I have a pretty good handle on prospects that this community likes and prospects this community will not like. And I was pretty sure this community wasn’t going to vote for Peete. You guys value performance and proximity probably more than a typical outlet will and it’s not hard to see why, but Peete has neither of those things going for him. He’s a scout pick. Scout picks require a bit more faith than someone actually performing.
Anne Rogers writes about the pitchers working on new pitches this spring.
Add Schreiber to the list of pitchers working on a kick-changeup, a pitch he introduced last season but then worked on consistently the entire offseason. The right-hander posted a 3.80 ERA and will be a reliever the Royals turn to in middle- to high-leverage situations again, but he has to be able to get lefties out. Last season, left-handed batters had a .754 OPS in 111 plate appearances against Schreiber compared to a .671 OPS in 154 plate appearances for right-handers. With his four-seam, sinker, sweeper and cutter, Schreiber has the east-to-west movement plot covered.
Stephen Kolek was scratched from his outing on Wednesday due to tightness in his side.
“If they can figure out what it is [inside at the complex], we’ll have an answer,” manager Matt Quatraro said. “If not, we’ll have to get him more testing. But we were just being cautious and not forcing him out there.”
Jaylon Thompson writes about how Noah Cameron is preparing for his sophomore season.
So this offseason, Cameron did some scouting of his own — some self-scouting. He went back and looked at some of his starts with the Royals and found that his optimal success came from suppressing his pitch count and being effective in the strike zone.
“I think in the minor leagues, it’s pitch however long you can and have as good of stats as you can,” he said. “You know, feel the best and that’s all you can do. But here (in the majors), it doesn’t matter how you feel and how sexy your stats are. It’s just to help the team, pitch deep and limit their runs. That’s just the name of the game.”
Pete Grathoff writes that Royals broadcasts this year could feature drones.
Craig Brown writes about whether Bailey Falter can add velocity to his repertoire.
Touching 96 mph is a nice goal and everything, but I feel like it’s important to note that Falter has topped 95 mph with his fastballs just twice in his major league career. He did it one time last season, on a sinker, right before he was traded to Kansas City. Of course, all these guys are looking to add velocity these days…and visiting different pitching labs and training facilities with their own coaches to find that edge that will get them a tick more. Especially guys who know they are fighting for a spot on the club and the rotation. This will be an interesting development to monitor going forward.
David Lesky writes about Seth Lugo’s first spring start.
Nothing was in the middle. Last year, after the break, it felt like he was either missing big out of the zone or leaving a pitch right in the middle of the plate to get crushed. I think if my math is right, he’ll make one more start in Royals camp before leaving for the WBC, though I may be off on that, depending on how the Royals set that up. But I’ll be curious to watch the command and that slider in his next outing. It’s easy to lament giving him $20 million per year for the next two, and it would hurt if he pitches like he did in August again, but if he can give the Royals even just league average for 175 innings per year, that’s a reasonable cost to pay for that
And Witt’s drive to improve is relentless. J.J. Picollo, the head of baseball operations for the Royals, wrote in a text, “[Witt] is so easy to deal with because he takes such good care of himself that we have little-to-no concern. More of what we discuss with him is how we can keep him fresh and strong throughout the season.
“Some of the finer points of base stealing are things that are always being discussed, but he is clearly a very good baserunner.”
He is clearly very good at everything.
Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep wonders if the curve is the key to Lugo’s success.
Buster Olney at ESPN ranks Bobby Witt Jr. as the top shortstop in the game.
And Witt’s drive to improve is relentless. J.J. Picollo, the head of baseball operations for the Royals, wrote in a text, “[Witt] is so easy to deal with because he takes such good care of himself that we have little-to-no concern. More of what we discuss with him is how we can keep him fresh and strong throughout the season.
“Some of the finer points of base stealing are things that are always being discussed, but he is clearly a very good baserunner.”
He is clearly very good at everything.
Keith Law ranks Carter Jensen tops on his rookies list.
Jensen has a long history of getting on base, the power is real and he’s a strong defensive catcher. I understand the desire for loyalty, especially given Perez’s tie to the 2015 World Series winning team, but Jensen should be the Royals’ primary catcher this year, with Perez backing him up and maybe playing some first or DHing if there’s a need. Assuming the Royals go that route, Jensen will be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.
The Yankees are still open to adding a platoon bat.
The Padres shut down pitcher Matt Waldron after a hemorrhoid procedure.
Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day.
Angels owner Arte Moreno says fans don’t really care about winning that much.
What are teams paying per-win in free agency these days?
Tarik Skubal will only pitch once for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
The Yankees will retire the number of pitcher CC Sabathia.
The Pirates are open to a long-term deal with top prospect Konnor Griffin.
Should the Rays have a 5.5-man rotation?
Harrison Bader dents a food truck with a home run, and signs the truck.
An umpire has five consecutive pitches overturned on ABS challenges.
Would you let Jacob Misiorowski throw a fastball to hit an apple on your head?
MLB players want to participate in the 2028 Summer Olympics.
How Salt Lake City is becoming a frontrunner for MLB expansion. [$]
The NFL is not expected to get a proposal to ban the “tush push.”
Bodø/Glimt pulls off one of the biggest upsets in Champions League history, knocking out Inter Milan.
An FCC study shows TV station consolidation has led to lower quality for viewers.
Phil Collins, Lauryn Hill, Mariah Carey, Oasis, and Pink are among the nominees for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
Do we really need this much protein?
Your song of the day is Sebadoah with On Fire.
Over the last few years, we have seen a number of rule changes to Major League Baseball. This year is no different, with the addition of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) at the major league level.
It was originally implemented in the minors starting in 2022, and a few stadiums began using it in spring training last year. It has also been used in the Arizona Fall League since 2024, and they added a “check swing challenge system” last year that may be on the horizon.
MLB players and fans got their first glimpse of the future at the 2025 All-Star Game when the system was implemented.
But the Colorado Rockies got their first taste of it last Friday with the start of spring training games. Opinions varied, but, overall, players and coaches think it’s a good addition to MLB — plus, many of them first experienced ABS in Triple-A Albuquerque.
“I think it’s good,” said Warren Schaeffer. “I’m looking forward to seeing how each team handles it differently. It’s definitely a point of strategy, and each team is going to do it differently.”
Brenton Doyle sees in it a way to keep everyone honest.
“It keeps umpires accountable here and there,” Doyle said, “and when [the umpires] do miss, they know you know where they’re missing. So I think it’s a good reminder for them, and it’s also a chance for us to maybe get some good out of it, too.”
For Hunter Goodman, it’s a way to empower hitters.
“I think it’s interesting,” said Goodman. “But I think in those big situations – in big games – it gives the player the power if they think something was wrong versus getting rung up in a big situation. Now you have the power to say, ‘Alright, I think that was wrong.’ So I think it’ll be cool to see. I think there’ll be some fan interaction with it, and that’ll be exciting as well. I think it’ll be fun.”
Goodman also offered some insight as to how the Rockies are practicing with it during spring training.
“In some of the live at-bats, we would have the TrackMan up, and I’d catch a pitch and be like, ‘That’s a strike,’” he said. “And then we look at the TrackMan and see what it was and stuff like that.
“Or even our hitters sometimes in lives, (with) the pitching coach or the hitting coach calling pitches,” he continued, “and then they call one and the hitters say, ‘I think that was off,’ and then you look at the TrackMan. So we’re trying to figure it out in different ways.”
Tanner Gordon said they’ve discussed a slightly different ABS strategy for pitchers..
“We’ve talked about just kind of feeling out the game,” Gordon said. “Obviously, you’re not going to challenge the second pitch of the first inning, but a high-stakes pitch, maybe. Maybe with the game on the line, maybe in the seventh or eighth inning that can turn the game one way or another.”
“You definitely want to use it in key situations,” Braxton Fulford added, “big counts, 1-1 counts are a big one. There’s a big difference between a 2-1 count and a 1-2 count.
“Same thing offensively,” he continued. “If you have runners on base and it’s late in the game, you want to use it in those key situations as opposed to just using it. Early in the game, when you think it might be a strike, might not be the best time to use it.”
Fulford was also part of two challenges on Friday – one that went his way and one that went the other way.
“I was struck out on an ABS strike, and then I got one myself, which is a good feeling,” he said. “You think it’s a strike, but you could never do anything before, and now if you think it’s a strike, you can challenge it and get it overturned. It’s kind of a big momentum swing for you and your team.”
Jordan Beck and Kyle Karros acknowledged the inconsistencies they’ve faced with it, but overall are still in favor.
“I think when I was out there on Day 1 (in Triple-A), it seemed like it was pitcher friendly that day because the catcher was, like, 4-for-4 or something,” Beck said. “But I think it’s good. Pitchers still have to throw strikes and stuff, and hitters need to know their zones as well, so I think it’s good.”
“Friday was a unique day,” Karros said. “I feel like literally every single ABS challenge was called a ball and then overturned into a strike — oftentimes two strikes — and that was the end of your at-bat, which feels a little weird just waiting to see if you get punched out. But I think it’s going to be good.”
Karros also acknowledged that he never used it in Triple-A because he wasn’t sure it was a worthwhile skill to learn.
“I felt like it didn’t really make sense to use it,” he said. “If we [didn’t] use it in the big leagues, why would I use it in Triple-A? So I didn’t use it at all then, but I know some guys were challenging.”
He did say he will “100%” start challenging now, though.
Like everything else, Schaeffer has a plan and a framework for teaching his players how to navigate the ABS system effectively.
“It’s not in the hard rules but more about education of the players in terms of game situations and general game awareness, especially in the minor leagues when you’re trying to develop more game awareness,” Schaeffer said.
“When to use it in a higher leverage situation, and if it wasn’t used in a higher leverage situation, it was a conversation behind closed doors about getting better decisions made. Pitchers were not allowed to challenge because of, I think, for obvious reasons, in terms of their body’s moving, their head’s moving, the catcher’s moving the ball… there’s a bunch of different things. And the catcher pretty much knows the strike zone back there.”
Goodman also acknowledged that everyone is experimenting and getting used to the new system.
“During spring training, everybody’s trying to figure things out, whether it’s hitting or pitching or defensive stuff,” he said. “So it’s a great time for us as catchers and hitters to figure out the zone and challenge things and see where we’re at.”
So far, the Rockies have been part of 23 challenges so far and have won 10.
This will be a story to watch in 2026.
Over the weekend, Patrick Saunders and I walked across the concourse into “enemy territory” to chat with an old friend wearing a different uniform. Nolan Arenado is turning 35 in a few months, but is hoping to bounce back after a down year in St. Louis. Warren Schaeffer offered some memories of their playing days, as well, and is excited to play against him in a different role.
My take will run next week on the SB Nation MLB home page, so be on the lookout!
Amador looking to make noise in Rockies’ 2B battle | MLB.com
Adael Amador is one of many young Rockies fighting to break camp this year. After a meteoric rise, the middle infielder hit a snag as soon as he hit the majors and seems to be slowly fading behind other players who are more MLB-ready. Warren Schaeffer and Josh Byrnes offer their insights as to what Amador could bring to the table in 2026, and the 23-year-old himself says “my confidence was always high.”
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It is far, far, far too early to make any proclamations about the San Francisco Giants, positive or negative. It’s far, far, far too early to make any proclamations about any of their players, save for things like “Logan Webb is awesome,” and “Jung Hoo Lee is cool” and “Does Christian Koss have a book club and if so how can I join.”
But so far, things have looked excellent for the position player acquisitions that Buster Posey and Zack Minasian made this offseason. Second Baseman Luis Arráez has hit 3-6 with a double, and generally played decent defense. Center fielder Harrison Bader has hit 4-9 with a double, a walk, and a home run so impressive that it caused property damage.
Things haven’t been quite as pretty on the pitching front. Reliever Sam Hentges has dealt with an injury setback, and is unlikely to be available for Opening Day. Starter Tyler Mahle is sick, and we haven’t seen him pitch yet. And starter Adrian Houser made his spring debut on Wednesday and gave up four baserunners, including a home run, in two innings, with no strikeouts. On the other hand, many of the NRI relievers, like Caleb Kilian and Michael Fulmer, have pitched well.
Again: it’s too early. Far, far, far too early. It will be too early this time next month, too, and even this time in April. Bader and Arráez might end up having awful seasons while Mahle and Houser make 30 starts each and garner Cy Young votes.
But while it’s many months too early to judge these players, it’s never too early to predict them. So … which offseason signing will look best when the season is over?
I don’t mean the player who will increase the win total the most, per se. More the player who we’ll get to the end of the season and say, “Yeah, Posey and Minasian were cooking with that one.”
For me, it’s a non-roster player: reliever Gregory Santos. I’ve been a big believer in Santos for years, and was sad when the Giants got rid of him due to roster logistics. He was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2023, and it’s not like he fell off the last two years — he was just injured. And those injuries weren’t even to his arm, so there’s a strong reason to believe that he’ll bounce back this year if he can stay healthy. We’ve already seen it, as he breezed past 100 mph in his preseason debut.
And if he does pitch well, the Giants will have him under team control for two more seasons after this one.
So that’s my pick. What’s yours?
Sources say that Michael Conforto has agreed to a minor-league deal. Terms were unavailable at press time. Tyler Austin isn’t going to be available for a while, and per Maddie Lee, Jonathan Long is also nursing an injury. That tweet is in The Feed. Some kinda roster jenga would seem to be in order. We await clarity.
The Cubs are going to host the first HBCU game. “The matchup features a Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) game between Prairie View A&M University and Alabama A&M University.“ More.
And then.
Lotta former Cubs on that Rockies squad, and they were apparently bent on getting even. Q (two scoreless innings), Willi Castro, Nicky Lopez, enjoy the moral victory. There won’t be many real ones this year. Jameson Taillon and Caleb Thielbar got roughed up but they’ll be back to fix whatever their issues were. Thielbar right now has a 33.75 ERA in .1 innings of work.
The Cubs scored a few runs of their own. But that was too many gopher balls. Poor little guys.
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Food For Thought:
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Meet the new battery, same as the old battery.
William Contreras is locked in as the Brewers’ starter, ready for his fourth season behind the plate in Milwaukee. And after speculation throughout the fall and winter about who the backup catcher would be, whether that would be one of a slim group of free agents, a young prospect on the rise, or some other sort of acquisition, the Brewers seemingly ended that discussion by bringing back 33-year-old Gary Sánchez.
Could there be other options involved? Maybe so. Let’s check it out. For reference, here’s last year’s catcher preview.
To say that William Contreras’ 2025 was a disappointment would be a bit bold. Via the measure of WAR, Contreras was still the second-best catcher in the National League and the second-best position player on the Brewers. A 111 OPS+ was a step back (it was 124 in 2023 and 130 in 2024), but that’s still good production for a player who rates pretty well as a defensive catcher.
My level of concern about Contreras’ offensive game is low. There was concern last year about a fractured finger that seemed to be a long-term issue, but he reportedly got that fixed this offseason. That was blamed in part for some of Contreras’ issues driving the ball last year, and it’s true; at the All-Star Break, Contreras was hitting just .245/.351/.347 with six homers through 90 games. But he came back from the break rejuvenated, and from then until the end of the season, he hit .281/.361/.472 with 11 homers in 60 games — that batting line is nearly identical to the .281/.365/.466 line he had in 2024, when he won his second straight Silver Slugger and finished fifth in MVP voting.
This recovery bears out not just in the surface-level stats but in the Statcast data, too. Prior to the All-Star break, Contreras’ average exit velocity was 89.8 mph. After the break, it was 93 mph. A 93 average exit velocity, over the course of the full season last year, would’ve been tied for 14th in the majors.
Entering his age-28 season, Contreras should again be among the best catchers in the league. Before the 2025 season, I wondered if Contreras could work his way into the top three of the MVP discussion in 2026, and I still think there’s reason to ask that question. If the Brewers are as good as we think they can be — which would apparently be a surprise to the awards-voting media yet again — their best player is likely to get some examination for MVP, even if a pitching-again Shohei Ohtani seems destined for his fifth award. That player might be Brice Turang or Jackson Chourio, but there’s a very good chance that it’s Contreras. Also on his side here are the old-timey “narrative” elements: with the loss of Willy Adames before last season and Freddy Peralta before this one, Contreras likely takes the mantle as the obvious leader of this team, non-Christian-Yelich division.
Here’s a question: Should we start to consider William Contreras as the best catcher in franchise history? That title almost certainly belongs to Jonathan Lucroy, who caught for the Brewers from 2010 until he was sent to the Rangers at the 2016 trade deadline. The answer to this question might depend on your views on Baseball Reference’s version of catcher WAR versus FanGraphs’ version; via BRef, Lucroy earned 17.2 WAR in six-and-a-half-ish seasons. But he was also an early hero of the pitch-framing revolution, which factors into FanGraphs’ version of WAR, and that paints Lucroy as a superstar, giving him almost 35 WAR over that six-plus-year stretch.
So, maybe you don’t think Contreras can catch Lucroy if he doesn’t sign an extension. But Contreras has earned 15 fWAR and 12.4 bWAR through three seasons with the Brewers, and while Lucroy at his best was about as good an offensive player as Contreras has been, Contreras has done it more consistently. Contreras is already the second-best catcher in team history, by my estimation, despite the high profiles of Hall-of-Famer Ted Simmons and No. 1 overall pick B.J. Surhoff; a strong season in 2026 could make us at least ask the question as it relates to Lucroy.
It’s hard for me to believe that Gary Sánchez is only 33. If you’d have asked me earlier this offseason, I probably would’ve guessed like 37. He’s in his 12th year in the majors! It feels like it’s been a long time.
As mentioned at the top, Sánchez served as Contreras’ backup in 2024. That season was a mixed bag for Sánchez: he ended up doing a lot of work as the designated hitter, and while he did hit 11 home runs, it was a disappointing season in light of what he’d done in 2023, when he hit 19 homers in just 72 games with the Padres.
Sánchez left the Brewers after 2024 and signed with the Baltimore Orioles for last season, but things went off the rails quickly; he struggled badly out of the gate, got hurt, came back in June, and went crazy, with a .353/.411/.686 batting line, five homers and 20 RBI in his first 14 games back, then went 0 for his next 10, got hurt again, and didn’t play again for the rest of the season. He finished the season with just 29 games played.
Sánchez hasn’t played 100 games in a season since 2022 in Minnesota, and he hasn’t had an OPS+ above 100 in a season in which he played 100 games since 2019. Sánchez can still get into a baseball — his 93.3 average exit velocity in 2025, while in a tiny sample, would’ve ranked tied for ninth in the league, and even in his poorer seasons over the last several years, he’s had pretty solid Statcast numbers. The Sánchez of the last few years has had a walk percentage of 8.2%, which is fine — it was a little higher earlier in his career, so we shouldn’t worry about Sánchez as a free swinger.
The Brewers have seemingly prioritized offense over defense the last few years with their backup catchers, which is a bit of a “zag” from traditional norms; but Sánchez, Eric Haase, and Danny Jansen are all — to some degree — offensive options. (Jansen has traditionally been a good defensive catcher, but the numbers over the last few years aren’t as good.) Sánchez is not likely to be a great asset behind the plate, but the Brewers aren’t going to ask him to catch all that much — in the scenario in which Contreras were to get injured for any length of time, and the Brewers needed a long-term backup, Jeferson Quero would likely figure to take a large amount of the playing time.
Sánchez on defense should be good enough to not really harm the team, and the team doesn’t have him around for defense, really; they have him as a veteran presence to work well with all their young pitchers and to occasionally hit a baseball very far. He can do both of those things.
Speaking of Quero!
The Brewers’ 23-year-old catcher was, as we all know, a consensus top-40 prospect prior to the 2024 season, then injured his throwing shoulder on the first day of the season and missed basically a year and a half. He made it back in the second half of last season and performed reasonably well at Triple-A Nashville for 58 games.
But there is some real concern over that throwing arm: by all accounts, both quantitative and otherwise, Quero is not throwing nearly as well as he was before the injury. That is a big deal: Quero’s arm was touted as perhaps his strongest tool, the thing that made him special as a defensive catcher, and the reason he was in the top 40 on prospect lists.
Part of me wonders if a catcher in 2026 should be able to become a top-40 prospect based almost solely on the strength of their arm, so if it is the case that Quero is now far less heralded as a prospect because of concerns over the arm, maybe he was too high to begin with. But even if he isn’t going to be Pudge Rodríguez back there, there’s still a future for Quero with the Brewers. Maybe he won’t become a star, but he projects as a guy who can be about league-average offensively, and pre-injury scouting reports also praise his receiving and rapport with pitchers.
There is perhaps less confidence that the Brewers have their long-term, post-Contreras catcher in Quero, but he should still be able to be a solid player. If Contreras or Gary Sánchez spend any extended amount of time on the injured list this year, it’s likely that we’ll get a look at Quero in the big leagues.
For a couple of weeks, it looked like the 2025 Cub, who was signed to a minor league deal with an invite to big-league camp, would start the season as the Brewers’ backup catcher. But Sánchez’s signing likely means that only a spring-training injury to either of the more-established options will give McGuire a shot.
McGuire isn’t a good hitter, but he can hit a homer every now and then, and he has a good defensive reputation. It was somewhat surprising that he wasn’t able to find a major-league deal this offseason, and I’d be surprised if there isn’t at least some demand for him somewhere in the league at the end of spring training, assuming he doesn’t make the Brewers.
It is not clear whether there are opt-outs — which are pretty common for veterans on minor league contracts — in McGuire’s minor-league deal. So there is a chance that even if he doesn’t make the Brewers’ 40-man roster, he could go to Triple-A Nashville as insurance for Contreras and/or Sánchez. But the Brewers will certainly want Quero to be getting reps there, so if McGuire has an end-of-spring-training opt-out, I’d expect him to use it if, as expected, he doesn’t make the team.
Marco Dinges isn’t going to play for the Brewers this year, but I just wanted to add him to the end of this post. Dinges, who hasn’t played above High-A, has some work to do defensively, but in 2025, he hit .300/.416/.514 with 13 homers in 77 games across two levels — a 161 wRC+. He’s an extremely patient hitter with real power. If he can fine-tune his defense and gain more experience as a catcher in 2026, it’s not out of the question that he could vault himself ahead of Quero as the presumed “catcher of the future,” in much the same way Lucroy once vaulted past the more highly touted Ángel Salomé.
The 2026 Yankees are defined, at least so far, by continuity: the organization opted not to make a major splash this winter, with all but two members of last year’s ALDS roster returning for this year’s campaign. Even in such an inactive offseason, though, a number of players find themselves in new uniforms this season. While no truly big-ticket players have departed this winter, there has still been enough turnover for us to take our annual look throughout the league to check out old friends in their new threads.
Arguably the biggest departure of the winter was Luke Weaver. A former starting pitcher who reinvented himself as a dynamic reliever and became a fan favorite both for his fun personality and his strong performance as the closer during the Yankees’ trip to the World Series in 2024, Weaver signed a two-year, $22 million deal to join former Yankees closer Clay Holmes in Queens.
Of course, Weaver wasn’t the only former Yankees closer to make the trip across town this winter. Two weeks prior to Weaver’s signing, Devin Williams inked his own three-year, $51 million contract with the Mets. While very few Yankees fans will lament Williams’ departure, as he never quite got into a groove with the Bombers, this does continue a rather strange trend in recent years of the Mets targeting former Yankees in free agency.
The longest-tenured Yankee to depart this winter, Jonathan Loáisiga joined the Arizona Diamondbacks on a minor league deal after his team option was declined in November. Johnny Lasagna looks to bounce back after struggling in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Ian Hamilton joined the Atlanta Braves organization on a minor league deal after being non-tendered in November. He spent three years with the Yankees, starting with an elite 2023, a solid 2024, and a lackluster 2025.
Acquired from the Chicago Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline, Mark Leiter Jr. was left off the postseason roster in 2024, then added as an injury replacement, and got critical outs as the Yankees defeated the Cleveland Guardians to punch their ticket to their first World Series since 2009. Unfortunately, that would be the highlight of his career in pinstripes. Due to his inconsistency, the Bombers opted to non-tender him this past winter, and he inked a deal with the Athletics.
Sensing a theme, here? The sixth Yankee reliever to depart in free agency this year, Scott Effross was supposed to be a dominant reliever with several years of team control when the Yankees acquired him from the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline. Unfortunately, the injury bug got him, and he wound up making just 27 appearances across four seasons in pinstripes. Looking to revamp the bullpen, the Yankees non-tendered him in the winter, and he found himself in Detroit on a minor league deal.
The only non-reliever to depart this winter, Austin Slater was acquired at the trade deadline last year to give the Yankees some pop against lefties. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just 14 appearances, and while the Yankees had some interest in bringing him back, he opted for a minor league deal with the Detroit Tigers, where he is competing for the fourth outfield spot.
Several Yankees prospects departed this winter, most of them as a result of minor trades. These include Dillon Lewis, Dylan Jasso, and Brendan Jones, who were traded to the Marlins for Ryan Weathers, and T.J. Rumfield, who is now a Rockie.
Hello, friends.
Today marks exactly one month until Orioles Opening Day! The team will be playing exhibition games from now through March 23 to get ready for that. After yesterday’s 4-3 victory over the Rays, the Orioles are now 3-2-1 in Grapefruit League action. Awaiting today is a 1:05 game against the Tigers that will be broadcast on MASN. Dean Kremer is lined up as today’s starter. A day farther out, Shane Baz will get into his first organized spring game as Friday’s starting pitcher.
Yesterday’s win saw three scoreless innings from Trevor Rogers, who’s yet to allow a run in spring action. For anyone who was looking for a reason to believe that he’ll be able to pick up where he left off at the end of last season, that’s really not a bad thing to latch onto. It’s less outlandish of a belief now that we’ve seen him do what he did last year.
Another early spring standout is Tyler O’Neill. There’s a guy who was not exactly showing us success last year. It’s early and it doesn’t matter yet, and staying healthy might be his biggest issue rather than performance anyway. Still, O’Neill seems to be taking good at-bats and getting good results early on. One path to a better team in 2026 is to have last winter’s big signing start to get that contract out from being a waste.
If you’d already given up prospect Vance Honeycutt, the 2024 first rounder, as a bust, you might not have noticed that he’s gotten a pair of spring training homers, including one yesterday. He stunk in 2025, there’s no getting around that, and same as any of these other guys, it doesn’t matter yet. Still, it has to be nice for him after a tough year to get a positive early vibe from 2026. It will take a lot more homering in real games for this to connect into anything. I like the start.
With a few players leaving camp to participate in the World Baseball Classic – including O’Neill, who’ll be joining Team Canada – there’s going to be a bit more room for prospects to get playing time this year. If Honeycutt or others are able to take advantage of that, good for them.
More notes from Orioles 4-3 win over Rays (School of Roch)
Roch Kubatko runs through more of the stuff from yesterday’s game. It wasn’t all positive, with Andrew Kittredge having a bit of a clunker.
Orioles believe bullpen’s a strength: “I think we’re going to surprise some people” (Baltimore Baseball)
Gotta love a dose of spring training optimism.
Pete Alonso broke this comedian’s son’s heart, and now wants him to be an Orioles fan (Orioles.com)
This is about the son of John Oliver, host of Last Week Tonight and a Mets fan, now getting a personal appeal from the Polar Bear to change fandoms with him. I’ve watched Oliver’s show and I think he’s absolutely ready to experience Orioles fandom.
Taylor Ward learned to embrace change. Then he got traded. (The Baltimore Sun)
I keep forgetting that the Orioles traded for Taylor Ward. I hope he doesn’t make me wish I could forget when the season happens. Although that’s also up to Grayson Rodriguez, who the O’s traded to the Angels.
Nothing of particular note has happened on this day in Orioles history. Unless there’s bad news, that probably won’t be changing today.
There is one lone former Oriole with a birthday today. Happy 49th birthday to 2001-02 pitcher Josh Towers, who had a 5.05 ERA in 29 games across his two seasons with the team.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: playwright/poet Christopher Marlowe (1564), author Victor Hugo (1802), blue jeans manufacturer Levi Strauss (1829), cereal creator John Harvey Kellogg (1852), chemical maker Herbert Henry Dow (1866), animator Tex Avery (1908), musician Fats Domino (1928), and musician Johnny Cash (1932).
In 1616, the Catholic Church officially banned Galileo Galilei from teaching that the Earth orbits the sun.
In 1815, Napoleon Bonaparte escaped from the island of Elba, where he had been exiled following his defeat a year prior.
In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson signed legislation that established Grand Canyon National Park. Exactly a decade later, President Calvin Coolidge signed legislation establishing Grand Teton National Park.
I received a random book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. I’ll ask a question each time it’s my turn in this space until I run out of questions or I forget. I’m skipping stupid questions; we’re already on question 48 today. The book gives multiple choice answers but that would be too easy for us, wouldn’t it? Here’s today’s question:
Which pitcher’s 15 wins led the 2005 Orioles?
If you are answering the question early in the day, please be considerate and place your guess behind spoiler text so that others arriving later can still make a fresh guess. Thank you!
The answer to Sunday’s question: which year did the B&O Warehouse open? 1904!
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on February 26. Have a safe Thursday.
It was nice to see a healthy dose of Phillies regulars in the game yesterday. It’s hard to stay tuned into spring training games, especially this early, but seeing some of the players you recognize helps. Well at least it will until most of them leave for the World Baseball Classic next week.
On to the links.