How should we score the preseason production predictions?

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 29: Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Grant Holmes #66 studies the electronic tablet during the Sunday afternoon MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and the Atlanta Braves on September 29, 2024 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Okay, the Braves clinched the division. It felt like it was a long time coming at some point, and then they reeled off a sweep of the Astros in Houston, and here we are. That it happened without any kind of collapse is a testament to just how profoundly bizarre the 2026 Braves team is: they continue to maintain the fourth-best record despite a below-average wRC+ and position player fWAR rank, carried entirely by pitching and the ability to win when outproduced. (Seriously, after June I figured that the team would collapse if the offense didn’t rebound to notably above average, irrespective of what else happened. Instead, the team continued to be below-average offensively through any cut except something like, mid-July onward, including July-onward, August-onward, and September and the best it could register through any arbitrary starting point through the present was 12th, but here we are. Way to go Braves, sorta.)

But, today, I want to ask about something that many of you may not care about, but has been bugging me for a while.

If you recall, in the offseason, I ran a long series of posts like this. In those posts, I provided some commentary on projected production for a handful of Braves players, and then y’all submitted guesses/prognostications of WAR production for each, as well as a confidence level.

Well, the season is nearly in the books, and it’s time to score them. (There’s also a few other questions scattered in there, including how the Braves’ rotation would perform, their overall record, whether they’d miss Jonah Heim, etc. etc. The question of how to score those is a little different, though related, but probably simpler.) The problem is, I’m not actually sure how to score them. I could pick one of the methods that has rattled around my head, but I figured I’d throw it to you all, in case there’s some kind of consensus or crowdsource-based solution that works better than anything I’ve been able to come up with.

The “issue” is that everyone submitted a single guess, and a single confidence level, but WAR is a cardinal value. Sure, we could score things by just going, “if you were right, you get a point multiplied by your confidence level; if you were wrong, you lose a point multiplied by your confidence level,” but this means that if a guy had a 3-WAR season, someone who picked 4 WAR would lose the same number of points as someone who picked 0 WAR, assuming the confidence was the same. We could do “distance from” but that raises the question of how the math should work — is it like, you get +X (where X is confidence) if you nailed it, you get zero (irrespective of confidence) if you’re 1 WAR off, and you start losing points scaled by confidence for being 2 WAR off or more? Anyway, you get the idea — it’s complicated-ish, or more to the point, there’s just a lot of ways to go about it.

I’d say the two main criteria are: 1) you want to reward people for being closer (and reward less or punish more for being further); and, 2) you want to scale things by confidence. But other than that, how we get there is what I’m soliciting input on.

So, whadda ya got? (For me, discussing this is probably more interesting than whatever else transpires with the Braves at this point.)

Mets Morning News: Leaving Home

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 20: A detail shot of a Howie Rose Retirement logo prior to the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, September 20, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The Mets said their final goodbye to Queens for the 2026 season while Howie Rose said his final goodbyes to the airwaves. I suppose the rest doesn’t matter quite as much.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

With the final home games of the season complete, Howie Rose, voice of the New York Mets is now Howie Rose, retired voice of the New York Mets.

While his retirement remains on schedule and official, Howie Rose’s retirement ceremony will be taking place during next season’s opening weekend, whenever that may be.

A retirement is not complete until there’s a GQ profile and Howie’s retirement is no exception.

With Carlos Beltran and Andy Green on the field this weekend, it was a gathering of former, current, and potentially future Mets managers.

Laura Albanese penned a farewell to Howie Rose as the voice of Mets fans and as a voice who stepped into his broadcast booth.

Around the National League East

The Atlanta Braves handed the Astros a sweep-securing 4-2 loss and, at the same time, clinched their first NL East title since 2024.

Doing what they’ve done best all season, the Washington Nationals bullpen blew a game late and resulted in another loss for the not-quite-last-place team.

Sandy Alcantara, fresh off of closing a game, extended his major league innings lead and that’s just about the end of the good news for the Marlins in their 7-2 loss to the Padres.

Around Major League Baseball

As the last out of the Braves’ clinching win went into the books, the Boston Red Sox secured a postseason spot of their own in one of the season’s most improbable comeback stories.

In the middle of Sunday’s Cubs game, Michael Busch fouled a ball towards the on-deck circle and hit Alex Bregman directly in the cheek, sending the third baseman out of the game and setting him up for a nasty selfie later.

Terrible news for the San Francisco Giants and baseball as a whole, Duane Kuiper announced a diagnosis of throat cancer that has kept him out for a few days, but won’t keep him away from Mike Krukow’s send-off this coming week.

A pair of kicks to the teeth to cap off a failed season, the Blue Jays announced Dylan Cease is getting and MRI and a skipped start while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left Sunday’s game with back tightness.

Jacob Misiorowski made an abbreviated start and got just one step closer to the Cy Young Award as the Milwaukee Brewers set a new franchise record with their 98th win of the season.

The Steinbrenner family is selling 16% of the Yankees at a valuation of more than $12B to private equity firm Apollo.

Curtis Pride, Bob Costas, and Albert Pujols, among others, are at the forefront of a push to get Dummy Hoy, the first deaf major leaguer, a spot on the veteran’s committee ballot and, from there, Cooperstown.

A pair of post-clinch roster moves for the Dodgers included placing Tarik Skubal on the bereavement list and calling up Emmett Sheehan in his place.

This Date in Mets History

On this date 25 years ago, Mike Piazza’s home run had a chance.

Kyle Tucker rests after fouling ball off right knee

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 19: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts to a foul ball off his leg in front of Andrew Knizner #19 of the San Francisco Giants and umpire John Tumpane #74 during the third inning at Dodger Stadium on September 19, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images

LOS ANGELES — Kyle Tucker didn’t start on Sunday, one day after fouling a ball off his right knee, but the Dodgers right fielder insisted that he felt fine. This was more of a chance to pair a rest day for Tucker with Monday’s scheduled off day for the team.

“[The off day] wasn’t planned. I just felt that after he took one off the knee, this would have been 10 in a row for him,” manager Dave Roberts said Sunday. “He’s playing well, played a lot. It’s a chance to give him two days, then six in a row to finish the season.”

The injury was in a much higher spot on his leg than the right shin fracture that cost him two months on the injured list during the 2024 season while with the Houston Astros.

Tucker did pinch-hit in the eighth inning on Sunday, and he’s second on the Dodgers in games played (148), starts (141), and plate appearances (602), trailing only Freddie Freeman in all three categories. Tucker is playing the best baseball of his season at the moment with five home runs in his last 10 starts, hitting .417/.500/.972 since September 9.

Notes

Speaking of playing in the outfield on Tuesday, the Dodgers will likely activate center fielder Andy Pages off the injured list to play in the series opener against the San Diego Padres, after he missed the last 27 games after a fastball broke his left hand on August 21.

Pages at the end of this season will have two years, 155 days of major league service time and will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player, among the top 70 percent in service time among major leaguers with two years but not yet three years of service time. MLB Trade Rumors last week projected the cutoff for Super Two players this offseason to be two years, 134 days.

Longtime Dodgers third base coach Joey Amalfitano and knuckleballer Charlie Hough were honored on the field at Dodger Stadium prior to Sunday’s game as the 2026 winners of the the Tommy Lasorda I Bleed Dodger Blue Award. This is the fifth year of the award, timed close to Lasorda’s birthday, which is Tuesday.

2026 NL Central Power Rankings: Week 26

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Jackson Chourio #11, Garrett Mitchell #5 and Luis Lara #18 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate after a 1-0 victory against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 19, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Welcome to week 26 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (98-58); 5-1 this week; Clinched NL Central

The Brewers just keep rolling, with another 5-1 week as they took two of three from the Pirates in Pittsburgh before sweeping the Orioles on the road, guaranteeing a winning road trip with three games to go.

Jackson Chourio, Bo Naylor, and William Contreras all homered this week, while Joey Ortiz led the team with seven hits, including a double and a triple. It was a fairly balanced attack overall, as 12 players had at least one RBI, led by three apiece for Chourio, Christian Yelich, and Cooper Pratt.

Robert Gasser led the rotation with one of the best starts of his young career, working seven scoreless in a 1-0 win on Saturday night, allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out a pair. Jacob Misiorowski made two short starts, totaling eight scoreless innings with a team-high 11 strikeouts. Shane Drohan, Chad Patrick, Antonio Senzatela, Garrett Stallings, and Abner Uribe all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, totaling 13 2/3 innings with 17 strikeouts.

Milwaukee now wraps up the road trip with three games in Philadelphia before returning home for three games with the Cardinals next weekend.

2. Chicago Cubs (87-69); 4-2 this week; Magic Number of 1 for NL Wild Card

The Cubs had a solid week against the Braves and Reds, taking two of three from both to move to 87-69 on the season and putting them one step closer to clinching a playoff spot, as their magic number sits at just one, meaning they need a win or a D-backs loss to lock things up.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is just stat padding his NL MVP victory at this point, slugging four homers, swiping two bags, and driving in nine as part of a 10-hit week to lead the Cubs. Six others added a homer apiece, including Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki, who each had six hits on the week.

David Peterson, Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, and Matthew Boyd all turned in solid starts this week. Peterson led the way with a pair of victories, allowing two runs over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts, while Imanaga went six innings with one run allowed and eight strikeouts. Gausman went 5 2/3 innings with two runs allowed and six strikeouts, and Boyd went five innings with two runs allowed (one earned) and four strikeouts. Daniel Palencia, Colin Rea, Caleb Thielbar, and Ryan Zeferjahn totaled 7 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out eight.

Chicago closes out the regular season with a three-game set at Wrigley against the Marlins before visiting the Red Sox for three games over the weekend.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (79-77); 4-2 this week; Eliminated from Postseason

The Pirates started the week with a pair of losses against the Brewers but bounced back to win four straight, salvaging the finale against Milwaukee before sweeping the Royals.

Brandon Lowe slugged four homers and drove in eight this week, while Oneil Cruz and Rafael Flores added two homers each. Konnor Griffin tied Cruz and Flores with nine hits this week, with three doubles and four RBIs.

Wilber Dotel turned in the best week among Pittsburgh’s “starters” as he worked as the opener and made two relief appearances, totaling 4 2/3 innings with one run allowed and four strikeouts. Brandon Eisert, Antwone Kelly, Mason Montgomery, and Yohan Ramírez combined for 15 1/3 scoreless innings in relief, striking out 17, with Montgomery picking up three saves.

Pittsburgh wraps up the regular season with three games against the Cardinals at PNC Park before three games in Detroit against their interleague rivals.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (76-80); 2-4 this week; Eliminated from Postseason

The Cardinals had another rough week, going dropping two of three to both the Giants and Nationals to wrap up their home slate for 2026.

Iván Herrera helped guide St. Louis to a win on Sunday with a pair of homers as part of a six-hit week, while Leo Bernal and Alec Burleson also homered this week. Bernal also led the team with nine hits, driving in four.

Quinn Mathews turned in a pair of solid outings, totaling 13 2/3 innings with four runs allowed and 11 strikeouts. Matthew Liberatore also had a quality outing, going six frames with one run allowed and two strikeouts, while George Soriano and Ryne Stanek led the bullpen, totaling 2 2/3 scoreless innings with three strikeouts.

St. Louis spends the last week of the season on the road, as they’ll visit the Pirates and Brewers for three games apiece.

5. Cincinnati Reds (72-84); 2-5 this week; Eliminated from Postseason

The Reds are just waiting for the 2026 season to come to a close, as they’re coming off yet another rough week, losing three of four to the Dodgers and two of three to the Cubs in their final homestand of the season.

Elly De La Cruz led the offense with two homers and a double as part of a seven-hit week, also swiping three bases. JJ Bleday, Dane Myers, and Sal Stewart also homered, with Stewart’s six hits ranking second on the team.

Andrew Abbott had the best start of the week, which isn’t saying much, as he went just 4 2/3 innings with one run allowed and five strikeouts. While the rotation had a rough week, the bullpen fared much better — Tejay Antone, Graham Ashcraft, Brock Burke, Luis Mey, Emilio Pagán, and Tony Santillan totaled 15 scoreless innings, striking out 15.

Cincinnati closes out the year on the road, visiting the Braves and Blue Jays for three games each.

Kansas City Royals news: Carter Jensen sets the Royals rookie home run record

Carter Jensen view from behind. He is pointing his right arm up and to the right at the sky after hitting a home run.
Apr 6, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Carter Jensen (22) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run off Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Peyton Pallette (41) during the sixth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | David Dermer-Imagn Images

The bullpen blew another lead as the Royals dropped the series in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

“I feel bad for the guys because they really competed hard and we could have won all three games,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “In games like this, people always remember the big hit late in the game, but usually these games are won or lost earlier, and we didn’t capitalize on some opportunities. It was a tough weekend and a tough road trip. We didn’t play our best.”

The bullpen also blew a lead on Saturday.

“We go with Cruzy there and we really have a lot of confidence in him,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters in Pittsburgh. “He’s been throwing the ball well and Lowe just had another big hit for them.”

Jaylon Thompson writes the Vinnie Pasquantino capped off a hot series with a pinch-hit home run.

Captain Salvador Perez started Sunday’s game at first base. The Royals are rotating Pasquantino, Perez and Jac Caglianone in the batting order down the stretch. Pasquantino made the moment count. He finished 5-for-9 in the three-game series and has now homered six times in his last 20 games.

“My role is changing a little bit, so trying to get use to that,” Pasquantino told reporters in Pittsburgh. “Felt pretty comfortable. You kind of know in those situations you want to be aggressive. You want to try to get a good pitch to hit. See the situation in the game and try to make something happen.”

John Perotto at MLB.com writes about how Carter Jensen set the club rookie home run record.

However, Kansas City’s loss didn’t completely dampen the evening for Jensen. The 23-year-old catcher’s 25th home run, a solo shot off fellow rookie Bubba Chandler in the third inning, set the franchise single-season rookie record. Bob Hamelin had previously held the mark since 1994, when he connected 24 times in a strike-shortened season. Hamelin, known as “The Hammer,” won the American League Rookie of the Year Award.

“It means a lot to me,” said Jensen, who’s enjoying a milestone-filled season in the leadoff spot. “There is a lot of hard work that is put into this. I don’t think this is the end of my story. I’d like to think that it’s just the beginning. It’s been a really fun ride, especially to take it with such great teammates and coaches.”

MLB Pipeline lists a breakout prospect for each team, with Justin Lamkin for the Royals.

Lamkin showed signs that a breakout was coming in his first Spring Training, and he carried that into the season by moving past High-A Quad Cities after only six starts and striking out 15 over 11 1/3 innings in his first two Double-A starts. His regular season ended there with a shoulder strain, but he’d shown enough when healthy to become Kansas City’s third-ranked pitching prospect. He’s slated to appear in the Arizona Fall League, and his 91-94 mph fastball and 80-83 mph slider (the latter of which had a 55 percent whiff rate in ‘26, per Synergy) along with his above-average control will gain a bigger audience.

On Monday, Kansas City’s Special Committee for Legal Review will review the petition requiring a public vote for a downtown stadium.

The Athletics will interview former Royals executive Mike Groopman for their GM opening.

Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman is sent to the hospital after a foul ball hits him in the face while in the on-deck circle.

The Red Sox, who fired their manager earlier this year, clinch a playoff spot.

The Braves sweep the Astros to clinch a playoff spot.

What does the playoff bracket look like right now and what are the tiebreaker scenarios?

Will Aaron Judge be available for the playoffs?

Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan will miss the last week of the regular season.

Mariners manager Dan Wilson is unlikely to return next year.

The Orioles are unlikely to make changes with executive Mike Elias or manager Craig Albernaz.

How did the Nationals significantly improve their farm system so quickly?

The Giants have 16 players on the 60-day Injured List, which will make for some interesting 40-man roster decisions.

Olivia Miles breaks Caitlin Clark’s WNBA rookie scoring record.

College football fans are falling out of love with pregame shows.

Could Canada join the European Union as an “associate member”?

A study shows quick cancellations are hurting streaming viewership.

An autonomous plane makes a cross-country flight.

Your song of the day is Her’s with What Once Was.

Monday Scaling the Rocks: The Immortal Todd Helton

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 19: Todd Helton looks on after being presented with a bronze statue prior to the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Saturday, September 19, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ray Bahner/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Good morning, Purple Row!

After gathering feedback and doing some deliberating, we’ve decided to make last week’s Rockpile experiments permanent. Since the minor league season has ended, today will be the final daily Pebble Report, but we will continue to post a separate links roundup every morning.

Once the MiLB season starts up again, we will see if we want to keep the links separate or fold them back into the Rockpile. But that’s a future Purple Row problem.

In the meantime, here’s what’s going on with the Rockies and around MLB. (It was a busy weekend!)

Rockies News & Links

Around Baseball

  • Nolan Arenado grand slam lifts Diamondbacks in home finale win over Yankees | Arizona Sports — Nolan Arenado has had a career revival in Sedona Red this year, including hitting a go-ahead grand slam that ultimately proved to be the game winner against the Yankees on Sunday. He has hit 27 home runs this season, the most he’s had since 2023.
  • Umpire Laz Diaz calls out ‘nasty’ MLB climate as he ends storied career | USA Today — Laz Diaz is one of three umpires who are retiring at the end of 2026 after taking a buyout from MLB. The others are Angel Hernandez and C.B. Bucknor. Bob Nightengale got an exclusive interview with Diaz as he finishes up his career, which covers the evolution of the game as well as some of Diaz’s more memorable moments.
  • Cubs’ Alex Bregman undergoing tests after ‘terrible accident’ | ESPN — In a scary moment on Sunday, Alex Bregman was hit in the face by a foul ball while he was standing in the on-deck circle. Bregman underwent X-Rays and CT scans, and it has not yet been determined if he’ll fly back to Chicago with the Cubs, who just finished up a series with the Cincinnati Reds. But Bregman posted an update on Instagram saying he was OK, which is great news.
  • ‘Stayin Alive’ Red Sox cap turnaround, clinch playoff spot | ESPN — The Boston Red Sox have been an excellent story in 2026, as they were 15.5 games out of first place on June 24th and have gone 52-25 since to clinch a playoff berth. According to the article, “The Red Sox are the fourth team to make the playoffs after being 14-or-more games under .500 in a season in the World Series era (since 1903). Two of the three previous instances made the World Series, with the Boston Braves winning it in 1914.”
  • Giants broadcaster Duane Kuiper diagnosed with throat cancer, started treatment last week | The Athletic ($) — Long-time Giants broadcaster Duane Kuiper was diagnosed with throat cancer and has started undergoing treatment. This comes on the heels of Mike Krukow’s retirement announcement. Kuiper will be unable to call the Monday and Wednesday games of the Giants’ final season, but he’ll call Tuesday and the final series against the Dodgers.

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Orioles minor league recap 9/21: Trace Bright pitches a dud in Norfolk’s finale

CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - MARCH 13, 2026: Enrique Bradfield #72 of the Baltimore Orioles bats during the fourth inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

Triple-A: Charlotte Knights (CWS) 7, Norfolk Tides 4

A tough year for Trace Bright concluded with another dud, as the 25-year-old right-hander gave up six runs on three home runs in four innings. Bright started the season with Double-A Chesapeake, posting a 3.82 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in six starts there, but the transition to Triple-A proved tougher. (This isn’t unheard of, just worth noting.) In 21 appearances (20 starts) for Norfolk, Bright went 2-11 with an ERA of 7.70 and a 1.70 WHIP. He gave up lots of hits, as a .315 opposing average and .867 OPS attests, but he also walked more than four batters a game. Adjustments will have to be made.

After Bright’s four six-run innings, the bullpen was pretty good. Christian Heberholz surrendered a run on a hit, a walk, and a sac fly. But after him, Alex Pham, Yaramil Hiraldo and Andrew Magno each threw a scoreless inning. Hiraldo actually finishes the year with a very impressive 1.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 18 appearances for Norfolk. Same deal, 28-year-old left-hander Andrew Magno, who appeared in 47 games and posted an ERA of 1.70.

On offense, the Tides got a really nice day from Enrique Bradfield, who totaled seven bases, tripling and scoring in the first and homering in the fifth. The speedy outfielder finishes the year with a .263 BA and .707 OPS. Third baseman Bryan Ramos doubled home Norfolk’s third run in the sixth inning, and scored the fourth on a wild pitch. Second baseman Aron Estrada was called up to Norfolk only five games ago, but he went 3-for-5 to help pad a really nice 7-for-20 line (.350 BA, .909 OPS) on the season. Same with catcher Ethan Anderson, who singled and walked, leaving him with a .389 BA and 1.309 OPS in five games at Triple-A, too. Tavian Josenberger had two hits and a walk.

The Tides finish the season at 58-89, tenth in the International League East.

Box Score

MLB News Outside The Confines: The final week of the season is here

Sep 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Atlanta Braves players and coaches celebrate in the clubhouse after winning the National League East division title at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Good morning.

Which series are Giants fans most interested in this week?

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JUNE 25: General sky view of Oracle Park before a MLB game between the Athletics and the San Francisco Giants on June 25, 2026 at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Trinity Machan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Good morning, baseball fans!

We have reached the final week of San Francisco Giants baseball for the year. So let’s take a last look at what’s on deck for this week.

First up, the Giants welcome the Minnesota Twins to Oracle Park tonight for a three-game series. After that, they’ll have Thursday off and then the Los Angeles Dodgers come to town for the final series of the year.

As much as I loathe having to watch the Dodgers beat the Giants, I have to say that I’m most interested in that series this week because it will feature all the fanfare of the end of the season. I enjoy the Willie Mac Award ceremony and seeing all of the former players come back to visit. So I’m going with that one.

Which series are you most interested in this week?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants begin this series against the Twins tonight at 6:45 p.m. PT.

A powerful nor’easter will likely create a scheduling nightmare for the Red Sox and Cubs this weekend

BOSTON, MA - MAY 28: Members of the grounds crew pull the tarp as rain falls during a game between the Boston Red Sox and the Miami Marlins on May 28, 2021 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

This is about to get ugly! While the Red Sox are virtually locked into the second AL Wild Card spot and will spend the upcoming week preparing to face the Yankees, the Chicago Cubs — Boston’s opponent this weekend — have major playoff seeding implications on the line.

With just six games to go, the Cubs and Padres are tied with a record of 87-69, just one game ahead of the Phillies, who are 86-70. All three teams are battling for the top Wild Card spot on the NL side of the board, and with it, home field advantage in next week’s Wild Card series. In other words, the Cubs will probably have to play all 162 games before they know where they’ll be situated for their Game 1. And wouldn’t you know it? Amid that uncertainty, here’s comes Mother Nature to inject an entirely new level of chaos.

Below is the overnight run of the EC-AIFS model, and it’s showing (as it has for the last several runs) an intensifying, retrograding nor’easter backing into Boston at the end of the week, and then lasting through the entire weekend.

This is potentially a slow moving, multiday, high wind, heavy rain, coastal flooding event. And no, it’s not some rogue run or outlier solution. The EC-AIFS is one of the best performing models in the business, and some other guidance is actually showing an even stronger storm than this. For instance, here’s what the European and ICON models are showing:

We already went into detail on Saturday here at Over The Monster dissecting why a harsh solution like this was not only possible, but also pretty likely. However, if you want the short version, take a look at the linked up ridging in the image below stretching all the way from the central Atlantic through northern Quebec. This is an enormous blocking pattern, which prevents energy exiting off the east coast from escaping. In time, the trapped energy consolidates, becomes an organized storm, and has no choice but to retrograde back towards the east coast as it builds strength because it’s again blocked by the Canadian High.

Regardless of the details, I can’t stress enough how messy this is going to get for the Red Sox and Cubs if a storm remotely close to what these models are showing materializes.

The Red Sox will have no interest in playing these games at all, particularly with Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez set to go on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday against Cleveland before the weather moves in. That will serve as their final tune up before the rubber meets the road against the Yankees on Tuesday, September 29th.

The entire National League however is — in all likelihood — desperately going to need these games to be played to untangle their Wild Card puzzle. And if we get a massive wash out, the imbalance of the “give a damn” meters between these two clubs is going to be an enormously bad look for MLB.

The Red Sox will be (rightfully) furious if they have to do something like play a make up double header on Monday the 28th, and the Phillies and Padres are going to be (also rightfully) furious if they lose out on home field and have to go to Wrigley because the Cubs got free wins at the finish against a club that absolutely didn’t care about the games.

Either way, MLB is about to have quite an ordeal on its hands, and they may want to start thinking about backup plans right now to prevent an all out fiasco as the season comes to a close.

Yankees Rivalry Roundup: Rays are on the verge of AL East clinch

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 20: Chandler Simpson #14 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates knocking in Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field on September 20, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The weird marathon/sprint that is the baseball season approaches its end. And there is still unfinished business. The Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox have all clinched playoff berths. and Tampa Bay is on the cusp of locking down the AL East, as soon as Tuesday should they beat the Bombers.

The AL Central and AL West, however, could go right down to the wire as Cleveland and Chicago in the former, and intra-state rivals the Astros and the Rangers in the latter, fight for the division. In all likelihood, the third and final Wild Card spot will come from one of those clubs as well, though 2025 AL champion Toronto vaguely lurks as well in the waning days of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays (95-60) 5, Boston Red Sox (84-72) 1

The Rays just keep on winning. Sunday, they came out of the gate strong, putting up a four-spot in the first. A walk, a single, and a hit by pitch loaded the bases with no one out, setting the stage for Jonny DeLuca to double in a pair of runs. That was technically all Tampa Bay needed but they notched two more on a Chandler Simpson single before Boston could finally record an out, let alone escape the frame. Simpson, for his part, sits at a .309 average after Sunday, leaving him well within striking distance of toppling Yordan Alvarez for the AL batting title depending on how the final week plays out.

The win was Tampa Bay’s 55th at home this season, setting a new franchise record for home wins as they continue to enjoy the resurrection of the Trop. The victory, combined with the Yankee loss in the desert Sunday, moved the Rays to six games up with seven games to go, all but settling the question of who will win the American League East this season. For their part, the Red Sox did end up punching their ticket to the playoffs and celebrating at the Trop anyway, backing in when Houston lost to Atlanta.

AL Rock Fight

Chicago White Sox (80-76) 8, Detroit Tigers (73-83) 1: Chicago needed this win. After leading the AL Central for a considerable chunk of the season, they find themselves looking up at Cleveland. A loss would have left them two games back headed into the final week. But five pitchers combined to hold Detroit to a single run and six different Pale Hose drove in at least one run.

Cleveland Guardians (81-75) 1, Athletics (61-95) 0: What a season for Gavin Williams. The Guards’ righty spun seven innings of shutout ball on Sunday, picking up his 14th win of the season in the process. His nine punchouts give him 244, pacing the Junior Circuit. For Cleveland, the win keeps them in front of Chicago, setting the AL Central up for quite the dogfight in the final week of the season.

Texas Rangers (78-78) 2, Toronto Blue Jays (77-79) 7: A four-run seventh inning decided this one as the Blue Jays kept their faint playoff hopes alive, knocking Jacob deGrom out of the game before he finished the fifth. They remain a long shot at three back of Chicago for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the loss leaves Texas clinging to a one-game lead over Houston as the AL West also looks like it could come right down to the wire.

Houston Astros (77-79) 2, Atlanta Braves (92-64) 4: The Braves are doing their best to keep the nightmare scenario (the Astros weaseling their way into the playoffs then going on a heater) from coming to pass. A Mike Yastrzemski three-run dinger in the sixth was the decisive blow. The win also clinched the NL East for Atlanta, something not a single Pinstripe Alley writer predicted prior to the season (the Phillies? What was I thinking?).

Baltimore Orioles (75-81) 0, Milwaukee Brewers (98-58) 3: That’s probably all she wrote for the 2026 Orioles after seven Brewers’ pitchers, including “The Miz,” combined to shut them out. Sunday’s loss leaves them in a formidable hole in the Wild Card race. There’s lots of time for post-mortems but a quick look at the OPS of the Orioles’ young core makes it clear that a combination of regression and failure to launch have a lot to do with their disappointing season.

AL Standings

One fatal flaw on each MLB contender that could derail long playoff run

Entering the last week of the Major League Baseball season, 13 teams are still alive for October, and not one of them would be considered a totally complete team.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball but just one starter behind its ace it can actually trust. The Tampa Bay Rays are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the American League but have a lineup that goes cold at the bottom of the order almost every night. And a few teams, like the New York Yankees, are staring down injuries that can make or break their October.

Last season proved how a fatal flaw can come back and bite a team in October.

The Brewers had the best record in baseball in 2025 then scored one run a game and hit .128 in a four-game National League Championship Series sweep by the Dodgers. It was the lowest batting average in a postseason series of at least three games in MLB history. Their power outage was not a fluke. Milwaukee finished the year in the bottom third of the majors in home runs, covering for it all season with contact and speed. The flaw was there, buried under 97 wins, and it was exploited once the bright lights came on.

Here’s the one fatal flaw that could end each contender’s season:

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have the best record in the American League (95-60, through Sept. 20) and need only a win or a New Yankees loss to clinch the AL East and home field advantage through the ALCS. Their flaw is buried at the bottom of the order. The seventh, eighth and ninth spots in the lineup rank 24th in the majors in OPS. Taylor Walls is hitting .219 with a .609 OPS in 52 games. Jorge Mateo has a .397 OPS in 23 games since Tampa Bay acquired him. The Rays have been burned by this flaw before. In 2023,the bottom of their lineup went 3-for-17 with no runs scored in a two-game sweep by Texas in the Wild Card Series, part of a 33-inning postseason scoreless streak.

New York Yankees

The Yankees lead the majors with a 3.08 bullpen ERA, but Aaron Boone trusts exactly three relievers with a game on the line: closer David Bednar and setup men Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn. Every reinforcement behind them has left doubt in Boone’s mind. New York traded a struggling Camilo Doval away at the deadline instead of adding to the pen, then lost Fernando Cruz to a partial UCL tear in late August. Ryan Weathers, the next man up, hasn't pitched since Aug. 23. Blackburn and Headrick had already thrown 79 and 73 innings heading into Sunday’s game, more than typical setup men carry into a pennant race, let alone October. History carries a warning for the Yankees here. Cleveland’s bullpen led the majors in the second half of 2016, but manager Terry Francona rode just two trusted arms hard, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, through October. Both were spent by Game 7, and Cleveland ended up blowing a 3-1 World Series lead. One bad week from the bullpen and the Yankees are heading to the golf course instead of the World Series.

Boston Red Sox

Boston clinched a playoff berth Sunday, Sept. 20 depite losing and hold the second AL wild card at 84-72, but its bullpen depth beyond three arms is the real question. Justin Slaten is done for the season, a degenerative elbow injury discovered too late to fix with anything but rest. Tyron Guerrero has been out since Sept. 1 with shoulder inflammation. Closer Aroldis Chapman, 34 saves and a 1.95 ERA, is nursing lat tightness, which already forced Garrett Whitlock, an ERA near 1.80 himself, into save situations he's never handled before. Boston gave up infield prospect Marcelo Mayer in August just to get reliever Erik Miller. That's how thin the bullpen was even before the injuries hit.

A thin bullpen is a real weakness in October, as the Orioles showed in 2023. Felix Bautista suffered a season-ending elbow injury just weeks before the playoffs and Baltimore went on to be swept in the American League Division Series.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox lost their lead in the AL Central, and part of the reason is a red flag for the playoffs. If they get in, the worry is that their rotation can't get through a lineup twice. Sean Burke went six innings against Detroit on Sept. 19, the first White Sox starter to complete six innings since Aug. 21. That's nearly a month of bullpen games in disguise. Trade deadline pickup Luis Castillo got pulled from the rotation entirely and moved to relief after his outings collapsed. His replacement, rookie David Sandlin, has an ERA near 7. Anthony Kay has been yanked early in four straight starts. Sean Newcomb, who carried the bullpen for months, has allowed runs in five of his last six outings. Chicago fell out of first place in the AL Central for the first time since early July, and it wasn't the offense that let go.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland's bullpen has no safety net. Closer Cade Smith has carried the group all year, but Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, the two relievers who were supposed to set up in front of him, haven't thrown a competitive pitch all season. Both are on unpaid leave while awaiting a federal trial on pitch-rigging charges – now pushed to November – which puts them out for the postseason, too. The relievers brought in to cover that gap keep breaking down. Colin Holderman aggravated a wrist injury on a rehab outing Sept. 17. Shawn Armstrong, out since July 25 with a calf strain, isn't eligible to be back until Sept. 23. Cleveland is leaning on arms with no October track record to hold leads under the most pressure of the year

Houston Astros

Houston's bridge to Josh Hader has collapsed. The Astros trail Texas by one game in the AL West with six left, and the two setup relievers who were supposed to get games to him are both hurt. Steven Okert, their best setup arm, hasn’t pitched since Sept. 1 with a hamstring strain and won’t be back before the postseason ... if there is one. Enyel De Los Santos joined him on the injured list Sept. 19. That leaves Bennett Sousa, who has a 5.27 ERA and control problems, and Bryan Abreu, who blew a save the same day in a loss that knocked Houston out of a playoff spot. That’s two hurt setup arms and a shaky one left standing. That is not a formula for October.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers lead the AL West by one game over Houston, but the bullpen behind Jacob Latz wasn't built for this. Texas lost two relievers for the season – Carter Baumler and Jalen Beeks – and designated veteran Chris Martin for assignment in August after a 7.00 ERA. That left Latz, a converted starter, as closer by default. He converted nine consecutive saves before blowing one against Boston on Sept. 18. Days later, Skip Schumaker had nobody left in the pen and had to use starter Nathan Eovaldi for relief innings, then Jordan Montgomery for more two days after that.

A starter coming out of the bullpen isn’t that crazy in the playoffs, but a bullpen held together by starters filling in is a screaming warning siren.

Atlanta Braves

Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both had season-ending elbow surgery in late August – Schwellenbach's second in under a year. Bryce Elder had knee surgery in September. Reynaldo López has been on and off the injured list twice, most recently Sept. 15. That is four rotation arms gone and leaves Chris Sale, 14-9 with a 2.18 ERA, and Tyler Mahle, sharp since he arrived from San Francisco, as the only settled postseason starters Atlanta has. The Braves have tried this before. In 2013 they lost Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy to injuries, went into October with only Kris Medlen and Mike Minor as trusted starters and rode 37-year-old Freddy Garcia to a Game 4 exit in a 3-1 NLDS loss.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies traded for Jhoan Duran for just this time of year, and he hasn’t disappointed. The problem for Philadelphia is getting to him.  Orion Kerkering, their setup man for most of the year, got optioned to Triple-A on Sept. 19 after an ERA above 8.00 since the All-Star break. Jonathan Bowlan, who took over the eighth inning, is playing through a groin strain. What's left is rookie Alex McFarlane and September call-up Max Lazar in the highest-leverage innings of the year. Philadelphia holds the last NL wild card spot at 86-70, a game behind the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, with no margin for what comes next.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee may have the best record in baseball – 98-58 through Sunday – but they run out of starters really fast. Jacob Misiorowski is a bona fide ace and the likely NL Cy Young winner, and Logan Henderson has quietly gone 10-3 with an ERA near 2.50 behind him. After that, it's question marks. The Brewers traded Freddy Peralta in January then lost Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester to season-ending surgery. Kyle Harrison was supposed to be the answer behind Misiorowski. He had a 2.57 ERA before the All-Star break. Since then, it's over 7.00, including four earned runs in one and two-thirds innings against Pittsburgh on Sept. 17. Deadline pickup Dustin May is an unproven fourth option with little margin for error. The best record in baseball still needs pitching to win a series.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs will take the best offense in baseball into October – 835 runs scored through Sept. 20, the most in the majors – and pair it with the pitching staff most likely to give a game away. Chicago's pitchers have allowed 227 home runs, also a league high. Cade Horton needed Tommy John surgery in April and won't pitch again this year. Ben Brown was shut down for good in September with a neck injury. Justin Steele hasn't started a big league game since April 2025. Deadline addition Kevin Gausman has a 5.04 ERA in eight starts as a Cub. Clay Holmes had a 1.55 ERA in his first five Cubs starts then allowed eight earned runs in 4⅓ innings against Miami on Sept. 6, leaving Craig Counsell still deciding whether he trusts him in October. It’s happened to a loaded lineup before. The Dodgers scored 906 runs in 2023 – the second most in baseball that season – then watched Lance Lynn set a playoff record allowing four home runs in one inning as Arizona swept them out of the NLDS. Even the best offense in baseball can't outscore its own pitchers giving up home runs like this.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' bullpen problem is bigger than one bad closer. Edwin Diaz posted an 11.85 ERA before a neck injury, then came back Sept. 18 after a rehab stint so bad he retired two of eight batters in one outing. Dave Roberts didn't give him the ninth inning back. His replacement, Tanner Scott, isn't clean either. He blew a save against Miami on Sept. 13, his fourth in 26 chances. Setup man Edgardo Henriquez, who has a 2.85 ERA, went down with a back strain Sept. 14 and won't pitch again this season. A bullpen implosion has cost the Dodgers before. The 106-win 2019 team kept turning to Joe Kelly until he finally served up a series-ending grand slam. Los Angeles clinched its fifth consecutive NL West title with a bullpen nobody trusts yet.

San Diego Padres

Luis Rengifo was hitting .291 with a .784 OPS when he tore his ACL on Aug. 29. He is done for the year, and so is the San Diego bench really. Gavin Sheets has been out with a foot injury since late August. Ramón Laureano's absence has stretched deep into September. The Padres are tied with the Cubs and one game ahead of the Phillies for wild card positioning but sitting on the wrong side of the tiebreakers to both teams. They are filling in with September call-ups instead of players they built the roster around, and there isn’t much season left to figure out if that holds up. The 2012 Yankees tried that when they lost Derek Jeter to a broken ankle in the ALCS opener; they got nothing much from the bench options and were swept by Detroit hitting .157 as a team.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: One fatal flaw on each MLB contender that could derail long playoff run

Phillies news: Jesus Luzardo, Orion Kerkering, Alex Bregman

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 20: Alec Bohm #28, Luis Arraez #4, Bryson Stott #5, and Trea Turner #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrate their 7-2 win against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 20, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images

No games today means the Phillies can’t break my heart once again. With only three games on the schedule for MLB in total today, a lot of teams are getting set before the final sprint to the end of the season. Luckily, the Phillies will be stress free all week!!!

On to the links.

Phillies news:

MLB news:

Tigers return home to host Nationals in penultimate series of 2026

The Detroit Tigers wrapped up their seven-game road trip with an 8-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field, dropping the four-game series to the home team, three games to one. The end of the regular season is mercifully near as the Olde English D returns home to wrap things up.

Next up, the Motor City Kitties head home to welcome the Washington Nationals to Comerica Park for the penultimate series of the summer starting on Monday. The three-game set is one of two in which the Tigers will host National League opponents — a strange way to end the schedule.

Making his Detroit debut in the opener is right-hander River Ryan, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Tarik Skubal trade at the deadline. In the 28-year-old’s two appearances for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens, he posted a solid 3.86 ERA but a disturbingly high 1.71 WHIP over just 4 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits (one home run) and a walk while striking out four of the 20 batters he faced.

For the Nats, left-hander DJ Herz will be making his 2026 debut after missing two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Since the 25-year-old returned to action last month from a June setback, he has a 4.24 ERA over 17 innings in six minor league starts, getting up to 65 pitches in his final appearance; he should be good for about four innings of work.

Take a look below at how these two pitchers performed back in 2024 — the last time either saw major league action.

Detroit Tigers (73-83) vs. Washington Nationals (73-83)

Time (ET): 6:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site:Federal Baseball
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 157: RHP River Ryan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. LHP DJ Herz (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PlayerGIPK%BB%GB%FIPfWAR
Ryan (2024)420.122.211.150.03.360.4
Herz (2024)1988.227.79.436.43.711.7

RYAN

HERZ

Chicago Cubs history unpacked — September 21

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Jeremy Jeffress*, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1934 – The Deans shut out the Dodgers. After Dizzy gives up just three hits in a 13 – 0 victory, allowing no hits until the 8th, Paul wins a no-hitter, 3-0. Diz says: “If’n Paul had told me he was gonna pitch a no-hitter, I’d of throwed one, too,” and 1997 – The Cubs beat the Phils, 11-3, but Curt Schilling racks up eight strikeouts to match J.R. Richard for the most Ks by a National League righty (313). He’ll finish with 319 strikeouts. Ryne Sandberg, in his final game at Wrigley Field, is 2 for 3 before leaving for a pinch runner in the fifth. He makes a curtain call in the seventh when Harry Caray sings “Take Me Out to the Ball Game“, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

Cubs Birthdays:Jeremy Jeffress*, Doug Davis, Jim Todd.

Today in history:

  • 1780 – Benedict Arnold gives British Major John André plans to West Point.
  • 1915 – Cecil Chubb buys the prehistoric monument Stonehenge for £6,600 and later donates it to the British nation.
  • 1955 – In his last fight, undefeated world heavyweight boxing champion Rocky Marciano KOs light heavyweight Archie Moore in the ninth round at Yankee Stadium, NYC.
  • 1970 – “Monday Night Football” created by Roone Arledge, premieres on ABC. Final score: Browns 31, Jets 21.
  • 1976 – Asylum Records releases “Small Change”, the fourth studio album by singer-songwriter Tom Waits; his best-selling album until 1999, features the songs “Tom Traubert’s Blue” and “The Piano Has Been Drinking (Not Me)”.
  • 1985 – Michael Spinks beats Larry Holmes in 15 to become Heavyweight Boxing Champion.
  • 1993 – Melissa Etheridge releases her breakthrough second album “Yes I Am”, featuring the single “I’m the Only One”.
  • 2004 – Green Day releases their album “American Idiot” in the US.
  • 2017 – Discovery of the first brainless animal that sleeps, the jellyfish Cassiopea, with research published in “Current Biology” by Caltech scientists.

*pictured.