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It's Dinger Tuesday, and I'm back on the longball beat, combing for the best four-baggers and MLB player props. 

Max Scherzer is one of the more generous pitchers on today's slate, and there are some big Royals prices, while Aaron Nola's reverse splits are giving value to right-handed Seattle bats. 

Plus, Yandy Diaz's price is 250 points longer than yesterday in what might be a better matchup.

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, Aug. 25.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Vinnie Pasquantino	+600
Randy Arozarena	+538
Yandy Diaz	+800
💲Today's HR parlay	+35085

Home run pick: Vinnie Pasquantino (+600)

Max Scherzer has the worst HR/9 of all MLB starters today since the beginning of last season, and that's saying something with Aaron Nola getting the ball today.

Scherzer enjoyed a good run after coming back from the IL, but just got shellacked for seven runs in his last start. He owns an 8.33 ERA at Rogers Center this year with nine dingers allowed in 27 innings of work.

All Royals batters get a good look today, but Vinnie Pasquantino at +600 was the easy choice. He doesn't have as many homers (2) as Jac Caglianone (5) in August, but his slugging (.769) paces the team and is third in baseball this month.

He missed 17 games with a wrist injury, but has a 1.218 OPS in his seven games back with two dingers and six extra-base hits. 

There is a lot of meat on this HR bone with the fair price around +450.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, Royals.TV

Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+538)

With Aaron Nola and his home-run gifts on display today, the Mariners were one of the first places I looked for HR prices.

Nola has ripped off back-to-back strong starts, but has still allowed the most dingers in baseball and is coming off a 100-pitch outing — the first time in 21 starts he's reached triple digits. He averages 91 pitches per start this season, and the efficiency could take a hit on the road today.

Right-handers have also handled Nola well, posting a better average against him than lefties since 2024, which is why I'm landing on Randy Arozarena at +538 with a fair price of +475. He leads the team in HR/FB rate (25.9%), HardHit% (41.9%), and SLG (.579) this month.

He's also gone deep seven times in August, with only three other hitters clubbing more.

It's a great price on a reverse-split pitcher who has been a HR gift, especially on Dinger Tuesday.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSP

Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+800)

Sometimes it's all about price, and that's where I am with Yandy Diaz vs. Jackson Jobe on Tuesday night at +700 or better.

It's a favorable matchup against Jobe, who has allowed two dingers over 14 innings this year and should see his ground-ball rate regress closer to his career numbers.

Diaz hits right-handed pitching well, with an OPS that's five points better than against lefties, which is why I'm scratching my head over why today's HR price is 250 points longer than yesterday's in a similar, if not better, matchup.

It's a .300 hitter with 25-HR potential getting priced like a No. 9 hitter in a good matchup. Sign me up.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, DSN

Today’s HR combo

Vinnie Pasquantino	Trade Now +35085
Randy Arozarena
Yandy Diaz

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A full slate means plenty of MLB player props to sift through.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25, including why Coby Mayo will torment Matthew Liberatore this evening.

Player	Pick	Odds
Alec Burleson	Over 1.5 total bases	-102
Coby Mayo	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	+111
Jackson Jobe	Under 3.5 strikeouts	-132

Alec Burleson Over 1.5 total bases (-102)

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has been hitting the cover off the ball over his last 10 games, but he has failed to leave the yard in eight of them.

Still, he has a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 10.3% barrel rate over that span, along with a .605 SLG and .237 ISO.

This evening, he draws Baltimore Orioles veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has struggled in his most recent starts, sporting a 5.25 xERA, 1.79 WHIP, and just a 15.6% strikeout rate.

The last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced own a .328 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .454 xwOBA. Burleson covers almost 100% of Bassitt's arsenal, according to Batters-Box, where he also owns an elite rating.

Do not take this lower than the current number.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, MASN

Coby Mayo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+111)

Sticking with this Orioles vs. Cardinals matchup, Coby Mayo finds himself in a great spot against Matthew Liberatore, who has been struggling against right-handed hitters as of late.

So far this season on the road against them, he is allowing a 67.9% elevation rate and 40.6% hard hit rate. The last 60 he has faced own a .315 xBA, .497 xSLG and a 10.8% barrel rate.

Mayo has been on a tear over his last ten games, producing a 55% hard hit rate and 20% barrel rate, while posting a .591 xSLG and .258 ISO. In his last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he has a .764 SLG and .455 ISO.

Getting this prop above +110 is a gift. Anything above even money is a go.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, MASN

Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 strikeouts (-132)

One of the hardest teams in baseball to strike out is the Tampa Bay Rays, who currently own the lowest strikeout rate on the season.

Over their last 21 games, they own the second-lowest. On top of that, during that stretch, they also own the highest contact rate in baseball at 81.8%.

This evening, they draw Detroit Tigers righty Jackson Jobe, who has struggled a ton since returning from injury. On the year, he owns a 5.49 xERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 18% strikeout rate.

With the Rays having eight bats with a strikeout rate under 20%, including six under 17.9%, Jobe should struggle to even sniff four strikeouts this evening.

Take this down to -135.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DSN, RAYS

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December 2023 was a transformative month for the Dodgers, who signed Shohei Ohtani to the largest contract in baseball history and signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the largest pitching contract in history. But they also traded forand extended Tyler Glasnow in a move that proved Brad Paisley contributes more to the Dodgers than ensuring extra-inningWorld Series games.

Much like with Blake Snell, the Dodgers knew what they were getting in Glasnow — a pitcher who is mostly excellent when healthy, but one who likely won’t pitch a full season. That’s held true for Glasnow, whose 134 innings in 2024 is his career high, and only his third season out of 11 reaching 100 innings.

Since the start of 2024, Glasnow has a 3.27 ERA and 2.87 xERA in 47 starts, and among the 172 major league pitchers with at least 200 innings since then ranks eighth in strikeout rate (31.2 percent) and 12th in strikeout-minus-walk rate (22.4 percent).

Glasnow was a stabilizing force to start this season, making six full starts before leaving his May 6 start after only one inning with back spasms. Among qualified pitchers at the time, Glasnow ranked 22nd in ERA (2.72), fifth in xERA (2.61), fourth in strikeout rate (33.1 percent), and seventh in strikeout-minus-walk rate (24.3 percent).

During his four-start rehab assignment, Glasnow was sharp with a 1.32 ERA and 20 strikeouts with four walks in 13 2/3 innings, including 17 strikeouts over his final two starts with Oklahoma City.

He’ll be pitching on five days rest in the series opener against the Braves.

Paul Gervase was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on Monday to make roster room for Glasnow.

Last season, Glasnow missed 10 weeks in the middle of the season with shoulder inflammation, then returned with a 2.86 ERA and 2.88 xERA in his final 13 regular season starts, then had a 1.69 ERA and 3.77 xERA in three starts and three relief appearances in October.

Tuesday will be the first of potentially six more starts in the regular season for Glasnow, to see what kind of finishing kick he has for this year. Glasnow is another piece of the Voltron Dodgers starting rotation that is nearly fully formed, joining Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, and Blake Snell.

Whether Ohtani is back on the mound this weekend in Detroit or later, he’ll be building up over the final four-plus weeks of the season to join them. But here are the 2026 numbers for those five pitchers.

The Dodgers’ rotation is a load-bearing piece of their potential championship structure, and getting Glasnow back gets them that much closer to fully operational. If there’s a singular reason to get excited about what’s possible in October, these starting pitchers are it.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Braves
• Ballpark: Truist Park, Atlanta
• Start time: 4:15 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, TBS
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Tyler Glasnow is back in the Dodgers rotation, activated off the injured list on Tuesday to start the series opener against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. To make roster room for Glasnow, right-hander Paul Gervase was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on Monday’s off day.

Gervase was active for all three games against the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, but did not pitch in a series in which Dodgers starting pitchers totaled 19 1/3 innings.

The 6’10 Gervase, who was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2025 trade deadline — a deal that also included catchers Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia, both of whom have since left and returned to the Dodgers — has been called up for four stints in the majors this season, and pitched in four of the 21 games for which he was active. In those four games Gervase has a 2.35 ERA with eight strikeouts and five walks in 7 2/3 innings.

The 26-year-old in Triple-A this year has a 4.86 ERA and three saves in his 31 games for Oklahoma City, with 46 strikeouts and 31 walks in 37 innings.

Glasnow was on the 60-day injured list, but did not need to make a corresponding move for the 40-man roster, because Jonathan Hernández was designated for assignment last Wednesday.

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The Chicago Cubs are priced as -112 moneyline favorites tonight at Chase Field when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. 

With Clay Holmes in good form, I'm backing Chicago in my Cubs vs Diamondbacks predictions as they search for their third straight victory.

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25. 

Who will win Cubs vs Diamondbacks today: Cubs (-112)

Clay Holmes has looked solid since coming over to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. The veteran has posted a 3.17 FIP across his last two outings, limiting walks and not allowing a single home run during that span.

Holmes has also held opponents to a 2.6% barrel rate, and while the Arizona Diamondbacks are swinging it relatively well, Holmes has the profile to contain them.

Brandon Pfaadt, meanwhile, owns a respectable 3.80 FIP over his previous two appearances, but he has given up 2.13 HR/9. That is dangerous against a Cubs lineup showing legitimate power, collecting a .261 ISO over its last six games.

While both arms are keeping their respective teams in games, Chicago’s home run upside gives the Cubs a slight edge against Pfaadt.

Play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubbies are raking right now with a 140 wRC+ across the last week. Their season average sits at +114. Chicago's offensive form gives it a clear upper hand. 

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)

I'm liking the Over tonight. Chicago’s bullpen has been excellent lately — which keeps this from being a slam-dunk angle — but both lineups are swinging it well enough to push this number.

The Cubs have been especially dangerous as I discussed earlier, while Arizona sits at a strong 116 wRC+ in the last week. Pfaadt’s recent home run issues also give Chicago a clear early scoring path.

The biggest factor is Arizona’s bullpen, which owns a 6.57 FIP over its last 26 2/3 frames while allowing 2.36 HR/9.

I’ll play this pick up to -120.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+355)

Pete Crow-Armstrong is an NL MVP candidate for a reason, and he’s scorching hot at the moment. The slugger has cracked three bombs in his last six games while posting a .417 ISO.

What really stands out is his 24.5-degree average launch angle during that span. He consistently puts the ball in the air, which is a dangerous setup against Pfaadt amid his HR issues. 

Arizona’s bullpen has also been vulnerable to the long ball lately, giving PCA another path to leave the yard.

Chase Field may not be the easiest park to take deep, but Crow-Armstrong’s current profile gives him a real chance at No. 34.

Play this pick down to +300. 

Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather

Chase Field weather is extremely hot but clear, with temperatures falling from 110°F to 102°F throughout the game window. Humidity is low, winds are light around 3-6 mph, and POP sits at 0%, so there’s no delay concern. If the roof is closed, weather impact is minimal; if open, the heat could slightly help carry.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -112 | Diamondbacks +101
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+152) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-168)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-103) | Under 8.5 (-107)

Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Cubs vs Diamondbacks and game info

Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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The Jays start a three-game series against the AL Central last-place Kansas City Royals. The Royals are 58-74. But in August,, they are 12-9, and on an eight-game winning streak.

On the season, they are 10th in the AL in runs scored, at 4.24 runs/game (Jays are last at 3.95).

In runs allowed, they are 13th at 4.93 (the Jays are 7th at 4.36 runs/game).

Starting pitchers:

• Seth Lugo (5-7, 4.71) vs. Max Scherzer (1-6, 7.40). Lugo has been hit hard in his last four starts, giving up 18 runs in 21.2 innings.
• Randy Dobnak (2-1, 1.58 vs. Shane Bieber (5-2, 4.53). Dobnak is coming off two starts where he didn’t allow an earned run. But he only went 10.2 innings, allowing 10 hits, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts.
• Noah Cameron (8-8, 4.02) vs. Likely a bullpen day with Spencer Arrighetti getting the bulk role. Cameron had a complete-game shutout and then threw five innings of shutout ball in his last two starts, allowing just 3 hits in 14 innings, with 4 walks and 10 strikeouts.

Isn’t it just our luck to be playing a last-place team when they are on an eight-game win streak?

They have averaged 6.25 runs per game in the win streak. And they have allowed just 3.37 runs per game. In the win streak:

• Not surprisingly, Bobby Witt Jr. has been hitting terrific, .344/.447/.656 with 3 home runs.
• Jac Caglianone is hitting .333/.391/.429.
• Michael Massey is hitting .429/.478/.667 with a home run
• Even Sal Perez is hitting well, .345/.367/.517 with a home run, a steal (how?) and 6 RBI, during the win streak. He’s having a poor season, with a -0.3 bWAR and a .643 OPS.

The Royals have a couple of ‘old friends’:

• Nate Pearson came to them at the trade deadline, and he has been excellent since the trade with the Astros, posting a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 innings. He does have 5 walks in those innings, so he’s still Nate, but he’s holding batters to a .140/.260/.186 line, much better than the .225/.345/.296 line he had with the Astros. He has 2 saves as a Royal, one more and he’d tied his career mark with the Jays, just not in this series.
• Luke Maile is also on their roster as backup catcher (or third catcher, really, behind Carter Jensen and Sal Perez, who has played 44 games behind the plate). Maile is hitting much as he did for us, .179.

Late in the game options:

Lucas Erceg was their closer, but he was shipped to the minors last week. He was having a rough time, with a 6.23 ERA.

Pearson, Steven Cruz (4.17 ERA, but 5 saves and a 3.45 ERA in the last month), Alex Lange (5.86 ERA), John Schreiber (3.80 ERA, with 4 holds and a win in August), and recent signing Craig Kimbrel (0 ERA and 1 save in 5 appearances)

Their bullpen has been an issue, with a 5.21 ERA, but it’s been better lately.

In reality, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are close to comparably good teams this season.

The Braves are not as good as their 45-21 record through the first two-plus months of the season, nor as bad as their 31-34 record since.

The Phillies certainly aren’t as bad as their 9-19 start which got manager Rob Thomson fired, but also aren’t as good as their 36-20 May/June or their recent nine-game win streak.

It happened in an unexpected way but the NL East race is likely to finish as expected over the next five weeks, with the Braves and Phillies battling it out after the high-rolling Mets made a stunning exit basically from the onset of the season.

I think we all knew deep down it wasn’t going to be as easy as it looked for the Braves when they leapt out to a 6.5-game division lead at the end of April.

In all likelihood, the division race will come down to the seven remaining games between the Braves and Phillies (four in Philadelphia Sept. 4-7, three in Atlanta Sept. 11-13).

It’s fitting, because not only are the two comparably good teams, they are also similarly built in a few ways. Both offenses are built around a few key players, rely on hitting homers (each top 11 in baseball this season) and don’t take a ton of walks (both bottom 10 in on-base percentage).

While you hear a lot about the Phillies’ top starters in Cristopher Sanchez (16-4, 2.62 ERA), Zach Wheeler (10-4, 2.92) and Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.35), their lack of strong options behind that trio means Philadelphia actually has a worse ERA for starters (3.97, 12th in majors) than Atlanta (3.72, seventh), a testament to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner when factoring in Atlanta’s myriad pitching injuries this season.

The Braves were expected to have a better bullpen and that has certainly played out, with the fourth-best reliever ERA in baseball (3.44) while the Phillies are languishing in 21st (4.31).

All that to say, even with Philadelphia’s remarkable recent run of success, the Braves still match up favorably on paper.

One just has to hope Atlanta has worked its way out of its current hitting slump before the Phillies come to town in a week and a half.

The good news, of sorts, is that this isn’t expected to be a race for a postseason spot. The Braves have a 99.1% chance to make the postseason, per Baseball Reference. And the other good news for Atlanta is that it does still have a three-and-a-half game cushion over the Phillies — not nearly the 9.5 games it was just over a week ago, but not nothing either.

The bad news for the Braves is that their chances of a postseason bye into the divisional round have fallen precipitously during their recent skid.

Atlanta is four games back of the Dodgers and five back of the Brewers, now with just a 15.2% chance of earning a wild-card bye.

That also puts more pressure on the division race. With the Braves just one game better than the Cubs, it’s entirely possible they don’t finish in the top NL wild-card spot and are forced to hit the road for a wild-card series should they fail to protect their season-long division lead.

The Phillies are looking to run their streak of NL East titles to three. The Braves are looking for their first postseason series victory since they won the World Series in 2021.

The vibes aren’t great now, but even the last five weeks of the regular season leave plenty of runway for a few more mood swings in each direction based on a strong or weak run of performance for the Braves.

The Royals have won eight in a row, and although its probably too late to make a real run, it can offer some hope for fans. There are, of course, plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Royals’ second-half surge. There is nothing to play for, so these games can be downplayed a bit. But historically, teams that have gone from this bad in the first half to this good in the second half have often had something real going on. So I went looking at how often these dramatic turnarounds have translated into success the following season.

It may seem like the Royals frequently play well once they’re well out of the race and its meaningless, but that isn’t necessarily the case. David Lesky wrote about this popular presumption three years ago:

Since 1995, there have been 27 seasons with a first half and a second half. So I’m excluding 2020 here. Of those 27 seasons, the Royals in the second half have posted a winning percentage of .450+ and had a second-half winning percentage that was at least 40 points higher than the first half a total of SIX times. Two of those six were in 2013 and 2014 and they actually did mean something.

And to take that even further, this year’s Royals team is not just playing better than they did in the first half, they have improved more than almost any other team in club history. Only nine Royals teams had a losing record at the All-Star break, and winning record in second-half games. This year’s Royals have the third-best record in the second half out of all of those teams.

One team made the playoffs due to a hot second half – the odd split-half post-season of 1981, where the team was allowed to reset after a terrible start. Three teams made the playoffs the following season – 1979, 1984, and 2013. the two teams who couldn’t sustain their success are the 2021 team that regressed to lose 97 games the next year under Mike Matheny, and the 1996 team that lost 97 games the next year despite adding veterans Jeff King, Jay Bell, and Chili Davis.

How does this hot second half compare to all MLB teams? I looked at splits since 2000 – 30 teams before this year had a losing record in the first half, and went on to have a .560 winning percentage or better in the second half. The Royals and Red Sox are both achieving that mark this year.

Does the hot second half carry over into the next season? Of the 30 prior teams, 22 would have a winning record the next season, and 14 made the playoffs (the Guardians got better in the second half of 2025, we will see if they can make a run this year). Notably, the 2013 Royals went 43-49 in the first half, but played .614 ball in the second half. They made a late run and nearly made the playoffs with a young team that included Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon. The core of that team took the momentum into next season, winning their first pennant in 29 years.

As you can see, the Royals are on pace to become just the fourth team since 2000 to play worse than .400 in the first half, and better than .560 in the second half. The other three:

• The 2000 Astros had the “Killer B’s” (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Lance Berkman) and a fearsome lineup, but one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball that caused them to go 30-57 in the first half. They underperformed their run differential that season, so their second half was likely them playing up to their true talent level. The next season they won 93 games and took the division with a much improved pitching staff.
• The 2002 Blue Jays fired manager Buck Martinez after a 20-33 start and didn’t really take off under new manager Carlos Tosca until late August. They won 25 of their final 36 games and finished 78-84. Carlos Delgado was one of the best hitters in baseball in the second half, and the pitching went from god awful (despite an All- Star season from Roy Halladay), to not-totally-terrible. The Jays carried over that hot month to win 86 games the next year, but missed the playoffs under Tosca.
• The 2012 Padres went on an eight-game winning streak in August (sound familiar?) and got a monster second-half from Chase Headley, who became an MVP candidate. Carlos Quentin was healthy in the second half and hit, and Yonder Alonso went on a late surge. The Padres couldn’t follow up the success however, they got off to another poor start in 2013 and finished 76-86.

All of this comes with some caveats. The Royals have played just 35 second-half games, still a bit of a small sample size. Just a week and a half ago, they had a losing record in the second half. They have gone on a hot stretch against three teams with losing records – the Angels, Athletics, and Tigers.

But if the Royals can continue to play this well, it could portend good things for next year. A lineup with Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Carter Jensen can be pretty dangerous. Noah Cameron may have figured something out. Michael Wacha is still steady. Randy Dobnak may be a real find. The bullpen….well, let’s address that next year.

None of this guarantees the Royals will suddenly become a contender in 2027. But the history suggests this kind of turnaround is worth paying attention to, and the Royals have enough young talent that there are reasons to believe this might not just be a hot streak.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rockies fans and fans across the country.

Kyle Freeland has been a member of the Colorado Rockies since he was drafted eighth overall in 2014 out of the University of Evansville. The Denver native made his MLB debut on April 7, 2017, against the Los Angeles Dodgers and has seen ups and downs during his tenure.

Freeland is in the final year of a five-year, $64.5 million contract and was just placed on the 15-day IL with cervical radiculopathy (a pinched nerve in his neck). It was unlikely that his 170-inning option was going to vest, but now that is all but impossible.

So our question to you is this: Where will Kyle Freeland pitch in 2027? Will he stay with the Rockies? Will he pitch with another MLB team? Might he go to an international league, such as the NPB or KBO? Or will he retire?

Let us know your thoughts!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

In the top of the third inning during the Red Sox’s victory in Miami Monday night, Ceddanne Rafaela watched a 2-2 sinker blow right past him for a called third strike with runners in scoring position. Wanting to extend the AB, Ceddy tapped his helmet and called for a challenge of what was very clearly a pitch that landed in the zone. The automatic ball-strike system confirmed it, and Boston was down a challenge on the night. It didn’t come back to hurt us, of course, but still: not ideal.

In that moment, I thought, “Hmm, Ceddanne isn’t really good at this ABS thing yet, huh?” None of that is to criticize Rafaela’s game; he should get down-ballot MVP votes by the time the season is over. He’s made great strides on offense and his defense is, as usual, stellar. It’s just that he’s gotta work on the challenge thing. None of us are perfect, right? I gotta lay off the carbs and get more active, we all have things we want to improve about ourselves. My doctor would probably tell me that myissue is “more important” than a professional baseball player’s ability to challenge a ball/strike call, but I digress.

That incident (and less so Wilyer Abreu’s successful challenge last night) got me wondering how the Red Sox have statistically fared in this brave new ABS world. Anecdotally, I feel like I’m not the only one who’s felt that we’ve been behind the eight ball basically from the jump this season when it comes to challenging pitches, but I wanted to see for certain. We’re about five months into the campaign now; that sample size is more than big enough to see how we’re doing.

If I could only use one word to describe the Red Sox’s 2026 ABS performance entering Monday’s games, it would be “fourteenth.” According to Baseball Savant, Boston as a team has the 14th most successful challenge rate in MLB for hitters as well as defenders (so, pitchers and catchers combined—though catchers take up the lion’s share of those challenges, with 4,398 catcher challenges leading into Monday across the bigs versus just 144 for pitchers). They’ve had a success rate at the plate of juuuuuuuust under 50% (63 won and 64 lost prior to Monday, and we went 1/2 on those offensive challenges in Miami last night) along with a 60% success rate in the field. The league-wide averages for those rates has been 48% and 58%, respectively.

The Sox are a bit more gun-shy than most when it comes to actually pulling the trigger on an ABS challenge. Their 4.4% challenge rate on offense leading into Monday’s action was the 15th highest in the league—so, right smack in the middle of the majors—while their 2.1% defensive challenge rate is the 10th lowest in baseball. Boston’s actual run value on overturns on their challenges minus their expected run value was -1.7 leading into play on Monday (can I stop prefacing all of these stats with the fact that they weren’t updated after game one in Miami? I think you get it by now), which is 23rd best in baseball. How they calculate that exactly, I’m not sure, but I feel like it’s worth mentioning.

As for specific players, your mind has not been playing tricks on you if you had the same thought I did regarding Mista Rafaela. He is, statistically speaking, the worst ABS challenging hitter on the team by a considerable margin. His net run value versus expectation (again, not 100% sure how you calculate that, but it’s late and I’m tired) is -2.1. Hell, that might be worse by the time the list on Savant updates in the morning. The two next closest guys at the bottom of the list are Willson Conteras (-1.6) and Andruw Monasterio (-1.0). Mona’s only challenged six pitches (and he’s lost five), while Contreras is rocking a 7-13 W-L record on ABS challenges at the plate. Ceddy’s got six wins and 18 (!!!!) losses—yikes.

The good news is that basically everybody else on the roster is above average when it comes to challenging balls and strikes. Mickey Gasper, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Nick Sogard, Wilyer Abreu, Anthony Siegler, and Caleb Durbin are all guys who have tapped their helmets at least four times and have come out with a success rate higher than the league average of 48%. Durbin specifically seems to be awesome at this; he’s 13/20 on ABS calls. It’s just Ceddy’s 23 challenges and Contreras’ 20 challenges bringing the success rate down.

Durbin actually ranks in the top 10-in baseball for net ABS overturns versus expected with 5.7. Rafaela in that very same metric, meanwhile, ranks………..well, dead fuckin’ last in MLB with -10. Not to be totally outdone: Contreras is fifth-worst in baseball there with -7.3.

For what it’s worth: no one else on the team besides Durbin, Rafaela, and Contreras has double-digit offensive challenges.

With the catchers behind the plate: Connor Wong has a 64% success rate on 39 challenges (-1.6 overturns over expected), while Adley Rutschman has a 69% (nice) success rate on 13 challenges (1.8 overturns over expected) during his time in Boston.

That clearly doesn’t tell the full story about Rutschman, though, since he’s in the top-10 in the league in that expected metric. While in Baltimore, Adley had 10.5 overturns vs. expected; his 12.4 ABS overturns over expectation has been good for sixth in baseball. One thing to keep an eye on as the season winds down: Rutschman’s challenge rate in Baltimore was 1.3% (almost a full percentage point below what would be his expected challenge rate), while his challenge rate within his small Boston sample size had been 3.3% prior to Monday (almost a full percentage point above the expected rate). Maybe the Sox brain trust is persuading Adley—who we already know is a very capable defender—to trust his judgement of the zone more often?

The entire Red Sox pitching staff has challenged exactly four (4) pitches from the mound in 2026. Ryan Watson won one challenge, Sonny Gray is .500 on his two challenges, and Ranger Suarez lost one challenge. It is not even worth diving into that sample size to try and make a point about it, but I just thought it was funny that we’ve only got four instances of that happening to us.

So, what does this ABS data tell us? What are we able to deduce from the 1,000+ words that I just wrote and you just read?

Uh…………………..don’t let Ceddy and Willson touch their heads as often, I guess? Or let Adley and Caleb touch their heads more often? You tell me in the comments below.

One more thing before I sign off here: I’m in on ABS now. I think I’ve said that before on OTM, but I want to say it again. I was quite skeptical at first, but I like the current system in place as is. Limit the challenges, make it strategic in that sense, but keep this for the long haul. Let me know what you think about ‘em, but I’m a fan.

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Cal Raleigh came alive last night to mash not one, not two, but THREE home runs. With the Philadelphia Phillies trotting out home run machine Aaron Nola, more fireworks are expected in Seattle tonight.

Josh Inglis is targeting the Over in that game as one of our three MLB expert picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: PHI/SEA o7.5	+100
Jon Metler: LAD ML	-150
Dustin Saracini: TOR ML	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Mariners Over 7.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

This Over is trading at 50 cents on Polymarket but is much shorter at traditional books. Even then, it still isn't enough at this total. The fair price is 60 cents, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number moves to a flat 8 before first pitch.

This might be the best pitching matchup in the series to target the Over. Aaron Nola remains one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball and is coming off a 100-pitch outing, his highest workload in 21 starts. He's also allowed more home runs than any pitcher in baseball this season.

George Kirby hasn't been much better lately, allowing 19 runs over his last five starts while failing to record 16 outs in four of them.

Cal Raleigh has an offensive pulse after three dingers last night, and only the Red Sox have scored more runs in August than the Philadelphia Phillies. 

THE BAT is projecting 9.35 runs tonight in Seattle.

Todd Cordell has a full breakdown waiting with his Phillies vs. Mariners predictions.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Mariners.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

This series is worth keeping an eye on, with two of the National League's top teams potentially giving us a preview of a postseason matchup.

Bryce Elder gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and the matchup sets up well for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Elder relies heavily on his sinker at the bottom of the zone to generate ground balls and get outs, but that's a difficult pitch to live on against this lineup.

Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy are three of the most dangerous left-handed bats in baseball, and they all have swing paths designed to elevate pitches down in the zone. If Elder misses his spot and the sinker leaks over the inner half, the Dodgers can turn that mistake into damage.

The Dodgers are trading at 60 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 63 cents, giving us a meaningful edge at the current number.

Check out Jason Wilson's Dodgers vs. Braves predictions for an opposing take.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: TBS

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

If the Toronto Blue Jays want to earn the second Wild Card — they're currently 2.0 games back — they need to beat teams like the Kansas City Royals.

While the Royals have won eight straight, the Jays are catching them with the struggling Seth Lugo on the bump tonight. The former ace has allowed five earned runs in three of his last four starts and is in the middle of the worst season of his career, sporting a career-high 5.18 xERA and .280 xBA.

He's simply not missing bats, and the Jays are about to take advantage at home.

I'd play this up to 58 cents at Polymarket, and ride with a bounce-back performance from Max Scherzer.

For a thorough look at this game, consult Dustin's complete Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Royals.TV, Sportsnet

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in White Sox fans and fans across the country.

It might not be the best time to ask this, as the White Sox have been just a 50/50 team so far in the second half, but this week we’re looking ahead to where the team finishes in the playoff race. As of now, the White Sox are sitting pretty, 2 ½ games up in the AL Central. And by virtue of the AL West being dog food, that first-place positioning means the White Sox are the AL’s No. 2 seed despite only the fourth-best record.

But, with 31 games remaining, will the White Sox be able to keep their loftly placement? Everything (but, realistically, getting hot and taking over the No. 1 seed) is on the table:

For most of this season, the only National Leaguers who seemed to be getting any play when it came to the Rookie of the Year talk were Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Reds catcher Sal Stewart.

They were the ones who started hot, were being covered the most, and whose betting odds were far and away the best.

We wrote last week about why that was curious, as we detailed the serious candidacy of Mets right fielder Carson Benge, who has remained on fire in the week since. 

On Aug, 18, Benge's odds to win the award (via BetMGM) were +1400. Now, his odds are up to +650. He's still not being properly recognized, but that's an argument for another day.

Today's argument is for Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has surged into the conversation -- perhaps because it became apparent that two uncharacteristically bad starts three months ago shouldn't define his season.

McLean is still tinkering with his pitch mix while working to harness his otherworldly stuff. His arsenal includes three fastball variations, a curve, a changeup, and a sweeper, and he has fought himself at times this season as he works his way into games. 

As he decides which of his pitches to rely on most, McLean's two-seam and four-seam fastball usage has ticked up while he has used his sweeper much less often (throwing it 13.2 percent of the time this season after using it 25.7 percent of the time in 2025). And a look at his advanced stats via Baseball Savant show that McLean's fastball run value is in the 98th percentile, which is near the very top of the league. 

As part of the learning process, McLean has sometimes found himself on the ropes early before locking in and shutting down the opposition.

In his two most recent outings, McLean gave up just one run in 12.0 innings but worked around plenty of traffic on the bases -- due in large part to walking four batters in each start.

But when you put it all together, McLean has been nails. And he is in rarefied air when it comes to rookie starting pitchers.

Over his first 26 starts of the season, here's how the numbers look:

IP: 148.2
ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.14
K's: 168 (10.2 per nine)
H/9: 6.8
BAA: .208
HR/9: 0.9
BB/9: 3.5

McLean, who has moxie and a bulldog mentality to go along with his phenomenal stuff, has also been pitching deeper into games as the season has gone on, completing 6.0 innings or more in 11 of his last 12 starts. Overall this year, McLean has gone 6.0 innings or more 17 times.

What he's doing is impressive enough when you single him out as a rookie, but McLean's numbers also handle scrutiny when you remove him from that category.

Here's how McLean ranks in the NL when it comes to all qualified starting pitchers:

BAA: 3rd
H/9: 4th
K's: 6th
ERA: 7th
IP: 8th

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have a better BAA than McLean? Jacob Misiorowski and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have allowed fewer hits than McLean? Misiorowski, Yamamoto, Chris Sale, and Chase Burns.

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have struck out more batters than McLean? Misiorowski, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Cade Cavalli.

So while McLean's Rookie of the Year case is strong, his case as simply one of the best and most dominant pitchers in the NL is also legitimate.

Given how Wetherholt and Stewart's candidacies have been viewed for a while, and factoring in how highly a large swath of the voters still value RBI (Stewart is currently leading the league with 98), it will likely be an uphill battle for either McLean or Benge to nab the award.

But both of them have a serious case over Stewart (who plays half of his games in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball) and Wetherholt (who has a .681 OPS since May 1).

For McLean to nab the award, he would probably have to be dominant from now through the end of the season, pushing his ERA under 3.00 as his strikeout totals continue to open eyes.

But when you consider that McLean has a 1.97 ERA in 59.1 innings over his last 10 starts dating back to June 30, him spinning a bunch of gems between now and when the regular season concludes on Sept. 27 wouldn't come as a surprise.