Red Sox should make a run at AL East crown after 7-1 road trip originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
A little over a week ago, after letting games against the Marlins and Orioles slip away in ugly fashion, it was fair to question whether the Red Sox could — as the saying goes — take care of business down the stretch.
The eight-game road trip that followed wiped away most of the doubt that might have cropped up. As a result, the Red Sox can now set their sights a bit higher than simply hanging on to a wild-card spot in the American League.
And if they want to get greedy, they can place the AL East crown in their crosshairs.
The Red Sox completed a four-game sweep in Baltimore on Thursday, eking out a second consecutive 3-2 victory. They outscored the Orioles 15-7 after outscoring the Yankees 21-11 in four games over the weekend.
Thursday’s win featured Garrett Crochet allowing two runs over six innings, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela each making a game-changing double play, Romy Gonzalez delivering a clutch game-winning RBI in the eighth (against a righty, no less), and Steven Matz locking down his first save as a member of the Red Sox (and just the second save of his career).
“I feel great,” manager Alex Cora said postgame, per NESN. “It’s hard to do. To beat a team in the big leagues four times in a row, you know, it’s hard. To go 7-1, New York, Baltimore, against the pitching that we faced, it was a great road trip.”
With Toronto off on Thursday, the Red Sox were able to gain a half-game in the standings. They’re 3.5 games out of first place, having picked up 2.5 games since Aug. 19.
And while the Red Sox playing strong baseball will be their biggest asset moving forward, the schedule should be a major help, too.
While they will face NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes on Friday night, they should be able to handle the last-place Pirates in a weekend series at Fenway. The Pirates are 21 games under .500 overall, but they’re 20-46 on the road — a winning percentage of just .303. They’re 15-37 (.288) in road games not started by Skenes, and just 5-9 in his road starts.
The Red Sox will then host the perfectly .500 Cleveland Guardians for three games before heading out west to face the Diamondbacks (66-69) and Athletics (63-72).
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, will have a rougher go of things. They’ll host the Brewers, who own the best record in baseball, before heading to Cincinnati to face the 68-66 Reds and then to New York to face the 73-60 Yankees. The Blue Jays then return home to face the AL-West-leading Astros (74-60) before finally getting a respite with a home series against the Orioles.
The Red Sox’ next series against a team that’s currently over .500 will come when they return from Sacramento … but they’ll facing the Yankees, against whom they are 8-2 this season. After that, they’ll host the A’s for three more games before heading to Tampa. They’re also 8-2 against the Rays this year.
All told, that’s 21 games where the Red Sox should go about 13-8 or 14-7. If they pull off the latter and if the Blue Jays go 12-10 over their next 22, it would set up a series in Toronto between the two teams with first place on the line, with Toronto’s lead cut down to a single game.
In that scenario, the Blue Jays may have the advantage for the final weekend of the regular season, as they’ll be hosting the Rays while the Red Sox will be hosting the Tigers.
But separating from specifics, the point is much simpler: Just making the playoffs is no longer the mission. The Red Sox now have a 96.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. They are making the playoffs, barring a 2011-style meltdown.
The more interesting story over the season’s final month will be whether they can actually push the Blue Jays to the final days of the season for the AL East title. Even if they end up falling a game or two short, making that push should set the foundation for an offseason of investment from ownership and the front office. It’ll be a lot easier for them to be convinced that a World Series run is possible next season if the current roster maximizes its opportunity this season.
With a 7-1 record on the road against divisional opponents over the last eight days, they’ve altered the outlook. What they do over the next seven series will determine what, exactly, that will mean.
