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The Chicago Cubs are slight favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball, and I’m willing to lay the short moneyline price.

This is a lefty-lefty starter matchup, but Matthew Liberatore’s quality-of-contact issues create the cleaner scoring path for Chicago. Jordan Wicks brings enough volatility to keep the total pointed Over.

Here are my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, May 31.

Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cubs moneyline (-105)

COVERS INTEL:The Cubs have an 11.4% walk rate, while the Cardinals' rate is just 8.7%. This is particularly significant with two erratic pitchers on the mound.

Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122)

I’m playing the Over because both lefties carry run-prevention risk, and I have a stronger conviction in the total than in the side. I would play this up to -132 at 8.5 and down to +100 at 9.

We talked about Liberatore above, and he’s a threat to give up a crooked number at any time. Wicks brings similar danger on the other side, allowing a .309 xBA, .493 xSLG, and 47.1% hard-hit rate against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup with the seventh-best expected slugging percentage.

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -115 | Cardinals -105
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 | Cardinals +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Cubs vs Cardinals trend

The Cubs have cashed the first five innings (F5) team total Under in 15 of their last 20 games for +9.95 units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info

Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries

Cubs vs Cardinals weather

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Things have been a little unpredictable lately with the Cubs. They won their least likely to win game in Pittsburgh while winning a couple where the matchup looked decent. So it’s always nice to win one that looks good on paper. Not only did the Cubs win this one, but it was pretty convincing. If you are someone who didn’t think the Cardinals would be good this year, then just about everything that you saw was on display tonight. They had some suspect defense that contributed to a couple of Cub rallies, their pitching was shaky and there was even a pretty sketchy baserunning decision.

On the other side, all of the things that can be good about this Cub team were on display. Ben Brown dominated, throwing seven. Another time, when he pitches this well, he might get a chance to start the eighth inning. His pitch count wasn’t immense and his pitches per inning was actually pretty low. But he’s still building his pitch count a bit and though I didn’t look at a weather report, he did look to have worked up a pretty good sweat and I saw shorts and tank tops at the park all of the way to the end. So I’ll guess it was a late spring St. Louis night where it was a bit hot and muggy. It wasn’t the right recipe for a rare push of a starter into the eighth inning, but it was adjacent.

Behind Ben, the defense made some nice plays to help keep him out of trouble and that pitch count low. And at the plate, the Cubs showed a bit of a relentless approach and a few timely hits. It shows up as just 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position and 14 left on base. But that’s because the Cubs managed 12 hits, drew thee walks, and were aided by three Cardinal errors. That’s a lot of traffic in a nine-inning game. Cardinal starter Kyle Leahy did a nice job escaping trouble in his 4.1 innings of work. The Cubs did virtually all of their damage with one out in this game, with just one run scoring on a sacrifice fly that was the second out of the inning.

Once again, the leverage went away from this game. Jacob Webb got the eighth inning in what was a three-run lead at the time. Daniel Palencia threw the ninth even though the lead was five by the time he got in there. There just haven’t been any save situations.

The team is 25-18 since starting the team at 7-9. It’s been a crazy path to get here, but that 25-18 stretch is more than a quarter of the season and would be a 94-win pace. So that’s a 94-win pace over their last 43 and an 88-win pace overall. If injuries do not derail this team too badly, I still think they can be a 91-win team (splitting the difference between those two numbers). It’s not always a work of art, but this team still does a lot of things well. If this team stays competitive like this, the front office will add at the deadline, even if it isn’t super flashy. The Brewers are definitely good again, but it remains to be seen if they are run away and hide good again this year. Their pitching looks better this year, but their offense doesn’t feel out of this world.

Buckle up, there’s a wild ride ahead over these last 103 games.

Three Positives:

• Ben Brown threw seven innings, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out six. He looked very good. This Brown with a healthy Justin Steele and Cade Horton is a pipe dream, but it sure would have been interesting.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong will have a cycle some day. He had four hits including a double and a homer in this one. He was also hit by a pitch and made some terrific defensive plays. This was his fourth career four-hit game and second against the Cardinals.
• Ian Happ had a single and a double and scored a run.

Game 59, May 30: Cubs 6, Cardinals 1 (32-27)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ben Brown (.280). 7 IP, 23 BF, 3 H, BB, ER, 6 K (W 2-2)
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.240). 4-5, HR, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, 2 R
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.120). 2-6, RBI, SB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.084). 1-5, 2B, R
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.065). 0-3, 2 BB, R
• Kid: Ian Happ (-.058). 2-5, 2B, R

WPA Play of the Game: With runners on first and second and one out, the Cubs up two, Ben Brown got Ivan Herrera to ground into an around the horn double play to end the inning. (.137)

Cardinals Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and two outs in the fourth, the game was scoreless. Kyle Leahy struck out Dansby Swanson. (.088)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 58 Winner: Ian Happ with 90 of 110 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +21
• Ian Happ +10.5
• Nico Hoerner +10
• Alex Bregman/Brown +9.5
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -13
• Seiya Suzuki -27.5

Current Win Pace: 87.86 wins

Up Next: The third and final game of this series and an off day Monday after 10 straight games. With a win, the Cubs could win this series and salvage four wins over that 10 game stretch and distributing the four wins just about perfectly if you were only going to win four.

Jordan Wicks (0-1, 16.62, 4.1 IP) makes his second start of the season. He’ll hope to bounce back from a horrible first outing. The Cardinals did better against the Cub lefty Friday than they did against the Cub righty Saturday. Though that’s probably as much a Ben Brown thing as anything. Shōta Imanaga didn’t particularly get shelled Friday, but he did fail to come through in the biggest spots.

The Cardinals have 26-year-old lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 4.76, 56.2 IP) starting. The former 16th overall pick by the Rays hasn’t won since May 7. Over his three non wins, he has allowed 11 runs in 14.2 innings of work. Neither of these guys is throwing well. The Cubs have a .731 OPS against left-handed pitchers, good for 10th overall. The Cardinals are at .689, 17th overall, so a bit of an edge for the Cubs. Liberatore had a really nice start against the Cubs in St. Louis last year and was the winner, allowing two runs over seven.

It feels like a slight edge for the Cardinals, but definitely winnable. Get this one and early win projections off of Fangraphs show the Cubs with a chance at five of six on the upcoming homestand. It’ll be fluid, but right at this very minute, the Cubs won’t face a team with a winning record after tomorrow until they see the Brewers at Wrigley Field on June 26. One team in there, the Blue Jays, is likely to be over .500 by the time they face the Cubs if their recent play is not a mirage.

I like the odds of the Cubs positioning themselves really well with a strong June.

We’re almost at the point where you open this page to simply see if Felix Reyes hit another home run. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Buffalo 6, Lehigh Valley 5

Liover Peguero led the way for the Ironpigs, going three for four with a double and an RBI, but shoddy middle relief by Ryan Cusick gave this one to Buffalo. Dylan Carlson had two hits at the top of the order, basically the only life he has shown really since signing a minor league deal with the team in the hopes of cracking the outfield mix. Probably not going to happen.

Oh, and Reyes didn’t homer. Bummer.

Harrisburg 7, Reading 5

Bryan Rincon made his return from the injured list and hit a home run for the Fightin’ Phils, but it wasn’t enough as the Nationals’ affiliate beat up on a Reading bullpen to take the game. Adam Seminaris struck out ten in five innings for Reading, but he also allowed four in those five innings. The Reading offense struck out nine times in this one.

Frederick 3, Jersey Shore 1

Even with center fielder Carter Mathison going three for three and Luis Caucito also chipping in with two hits and an RBI, it was a meager performance for the rest of the offense as they scored a lone run and lost to the keys. The bright spot of the game was the pitching of Luke Gabrysh, who threw five solid, shutout innings, allowing one baserunner on a single hit and striking out six.

Clearwater 6, Dunedin 5

Robert Phelps has been swinging a hot bat with the Threshers and Saturday night was no different. Phelps collected three hits, which included a home run and a double, leading Clearwater to a victory. Will Vierling also had three hits on the evening, one his being a double. The rehabbing Pedro Leon also homered, his on a back to back with Phelps.

The performances helped Ramon Marquez, who started and threw 4 1/3 innings, giving up three runs (one earned) on only three hits, striking out seven and walking one batter. A solid performance from an interesting arm.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (23-33) lost 9-1 (BOX SCORE)

Weiss started for Sugar Land but struggled allowing 5 runs over 3 innings of work. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Nelson RBI single. The pen allowed a few more runs and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 9-1.

Note: Ullola was up to 97.3 MPH in relief.

• Shay Whitcomb, 3B: 1-for-4, 2B
• CJ Alexander, 1B: 1-for-4, R, 2B
• James Nelson, DH: 2-for-4, RBI

• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 3.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Jayden Murray, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (23-27) lost 1-0 (BOX SCORE)

Gillis started for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 1 run over 5 innings while striking out 4. The pen pitched well too getting a scoreless inning from Chirinos and 2 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts from Rodriguez. Unfortunately the offense struggled collecting just five hits as they were shutout in the 1-0 loss.

Note: Holy has 24 SB this season.

• Max Holy, SS: 1-for-2, 2B, 2 BB, SB
• Jason Schiavone, C: 0-for-3, BB, SB
• Pascanel Ferreras, DH: 2-for-4

• Brett Gillis, RHP: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Julio Rodriguez, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (11-38) won 10-8 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning on a Powell solo home run. In the 2nd inning, they scored 6 more runs with 2 runs on an error, Thomas 2 run triple and Moss 2 run single. DeVos got the start and was solid allowing 3 runs, 2 earned, over 5 innings of work. The offense got 3 more runs in the 5th scoring 2 on an error and one on a Daudet RBI groundout. The pen allowed a few runs but held on for the 10-8 win.

Note: Frey is hitting .296 in the month of May.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-4, R, 3B, RBI, BB
• Ethan Frey, DH: 2-for-5, R, 2B, SB
• Caden Powell, RF: 2-for-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-5, R, 2B, 2 RBI, SB
• Kyle Walker, SS: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, BB, SB
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-4, 2 R, RBI, SB
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 1-for-4, RBI, BB, SB

• Nolan DeVos, RHP: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Raimy Rodriguez, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 0.0 IP, 1 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (22-28) won 17-7 (BOX SCORE)

Carrera got the start for the Woodpeckers and went 4 innings allowing 5 runs. The Woodpeckers offense got on the board in the 3rd on a Huezo sac fly. In the 5th they got 3 runs on a Newman 2 run home run and Huezo solo home run. They got 2 more runs in the 6th on Salas and Sierra RBI singles. The offense blew it open in the 7th scoring 8 runs on an Alvarez RBI single, Janek RBI double, Salas 2 run double, Sierra 2 run double, a run on an error and a Huezo RBI triple. in the 8th, Sierra connected on a 3 run home run. MacRae allowed 2 runs, 1 earned, in relief and Cassedy closed out the game with a scoreless 9th as the Woodpeckers won 17-7.

Note: Alvarez is hitting .421 over his last 10 games.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 3-for-4, 2 R, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Xavier Neyens, SS: 1-for-6
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 4-for-6, 3 R, 2B, RBI
• Walker Janek, C: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Nehomar Ochoa, 1B: 0-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Hector Salas, 2B: 3-for-5, 3 R, 2B, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Juan Sierra, RF: 4-for-5, 3 R, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
• DJ Newman, LF: 3-for-5, R, HR, 2 RBI
• German Ramirez, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, BB

• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
• Cole MacRae, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• Brandon Cassedy, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon McPherson – 2:05 CT

CC: Trey Dombroski – 1:05 CT

AV: TBD – 2:05 CT

FV: TBD – 1:00 CT

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Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement prides himself on being a hard out, and he's poised for another big day at the plate against Kyle Bradish.

My Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions explain the best way to target the Toronto infielder.

Here are my top MLB picks for Sunday, May 31.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+130)

Ernie Clement continues to be one of the Toronto Blue Jays' most reliable hitters, owning a .296 average, while recording a hit in 12 of his last 13 outings — with eight extra-base hits in that stretch.

His production against the sinker and slider only strengthens my conviction in his base total tonight. 

Baltimore Orioles starter Kyle Bradish uses a sinker+slider combination, accounting for 81% of his pitches to right-handed batters. 

Clement profiles extremely well against these pitches, owning a .348 average with a .522 slug-rate against them. 

Additionally, Bradish has been victimized by opposing hitters when he’s pitching within the strike zone with an 89% zone-contact rate. Not only does Clement own a 93% zone contact rate this season, but he also owns one of the highest out-of-zone contact rates as well.

I’d play this to +110.

COVERS INTEL: Clement’s consistency at the plate has resulted in a 185 WRC+ over his last 13 outings, averaging 2.3 total bases per game. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has reached base 20 times in his last nine games, including a 4-for-5 game last night. He profiles well against the sinker as well, so I expect him to be on base often again. He’s come around to score seven times in that stretch.

Daulton Varsho is another Blue Jay who profiles well against Bradish’s sinker-slider mix. Varsho enters the matchup with extra-base hits in consecutive games and owns a .333 batting average against those pitches this season.

Blue Jays vs Orioles SGP

• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs

Blue Jays vs Orioles home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+440)

Bradish ranks in the 49th percentile in opponent hard-hit rate (38.9%), resulting in home runs in back-to-back starts, and has been taken deep six times over his last seven outings.

Six of those seven homers have come against his sinker/slider combination, a pitch mix Varsho has hit well this season.

He’s my home run pick for today’s afternoon affair. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Baltimore -130
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-180) | Baltimore -1.5 (+155
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Orioles trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the run line in 13 of their last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Orioles and game info

Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Orioles weather

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After a three-game absence, Ha-Seong Kim returns to the Braves lineup for Sunday afternoon’s series finale in Cincinnati.

Kim, who has struggled to generate momentum with a .095 batting average and no extra-base hits in 12 games and 42 at-bats after starting the season on the injured list, is getting another chance to break out after a breather of sorts to work out of his slump. He’ll hit eighth and play short.

That doesn’t come at the expense of Jorge Mateo sitting, however. Mateo, who has been filling in for Kim, will be the designated hitter for the second time this week to keep his productive bat in the lineup. Mateo is 6-for-16 (.375) with four RBIs in the last four games and delivered his third homer in Saturday night’s win. He’ll hit just ahead of Kim in the seventh spot in the lineup.

Austin Riley is also back in the lineup, hitting sixth and playing third after missing his second start of the season on Saturday. That moves Mauricio Dubon, who filled in on Saturday, back to left field.

Chadwick Tromp is also getting his turn at catcher and hitting ninth in the series finale as Atlanta goes for a sweep to complete what would be a 5-1 road trip.

Braves starter Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46 ERA) has faced the Reds three times but hasn’t done so since 2023. That limits the number of current Cincinnati players who have faced him to just five. Nathaniel Lowe has a team-high six at-bats against the right-hander but only one hit (.167). TJ Friedl (2-for-3) and Eugenio Suarez (2-for-4) have had more success in a smaller sample size, with Suarez providing the only extra-base hits off Strider in a pair of doubles.

Overall, Cincinnati’s hitters are a combined 7-for-18 against Strider (.389) with four RBIs, seven strikeouts and one walk.

The Reds are moving JJ Bleday up three spots to the three-hole of the lineup after he provided their only real offense of the game with a two-run homer in Saturday’s 5-2 loss. Slugging rookie Sal Stewart drops a spot to the cleanup role.

Additionally, leadoff hitter Blake Dunn moves from right field to center, replacing TJ Friedl, who will sit. Will Benson — who is in a 2-for-23 slump — gets the start in right and will hit eighth. P.J. Higgins also replaces Tyler Stephenson behind the plate for his seventh start of the season, hitting ninth.

Reds starter Nick Lodolo has one career start against the Braves last year, giving him a limited but scattered experience against the Braves’ current hitters. No one has more than four at-bats against him (Kim, 1-for-4) and no one has more than one hit or one RBI off him.

Riley has a double and Michael Harris II has a triple, as Braves hitters are a combined 5-for-24 against Lodolo (.208) with three RBIs, 10 strikeouts and two walks.

The smoldering Ronald Acuña Jr., who has four homers in the last three games, has never faced Lodolo.

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The Philadelphia Phillies face the Los Angeles Dodgers this afternoon in a series-deciding game. 

My Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks have Yoshinobu Yamamoto cruising with his splitter-lead approach against a Philadelphia lineup struggling at the dish.

Who will win Phillies vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (-108)

World Series hero Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws his splitter more than any other pitch for a reason — it’s devastating. Opponents have a .173 average and .219 wOBA against the offering.

The Philadelphia Phillies have the fourth-worst runs above average per 100 splitters seen (-1.76), and the third-lowest wRC+ (76) and highest strikeout rate (25.2%) against right-handed pitchers in the last 20 days. 

Yamamoto will cook with his splitter, while the lineup behind him (league-high 121 wRC+ in the L20) will tag up Andrew Painter (5.40 ERA). Given the discrepancies in starting pitching and hitting, I’d play this up to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Philadelphia has the sixth-lowest contact rate and the eighth-highest O-Swing rate in the last 20 days. Yamamoto will pile up whiffs (78th percentile) against this ice-cold lineup..

Phillies vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+107)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’ve recommended the Under in the first two games of this series, and both hit, so let’s go for a third. 

Philadelphia has cashed the Under in eight consecutive games, scoring no more than four runs in any of those games and posting a league-worst 55 wRC+ and .251 wOBA. 

The Phillies have the best bullpen SIERA (2.31) in the last 20 days, and the Dodgers have the third-best FIP (3.13).

I have to bite with plus money available on the Under and multiple data points pointing in that direction.

Phillies vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +185 | Dodgers -225
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-110) | Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Phillies vs Dodgers trend

The Phillies are 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the run line in Andrew Painter’s last eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Phillies vs Dodgers and game info

Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries

Phillies vs Dodgers weather

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The San Diego Padres have had an abundance of problems lately. Their offense has been rough, to say the least. Their starting pitching doesn’t look particularly great. But their bullpen has locked it down. On Saturday against the Washington Nationals, they did not.

After Michael King pitched six beautiful innings, he returned for the seventh and struggled. After giving up a leadoff single to CJ Abrams, José Tena reached on a fielder’s choice that failed to record the out. King lost control after that, issuing a walk to load the bases with no outs before hitting Dylan Crews with a pitch to make it a one-run game.

King likely should have come out before that ever took place, but with the bullpen taxed from Friday’s series opener and King sitting at a low pitch count, he continued to pitch and it led to the monstrosity that would eventually play out.

Bradgley Rodriguez came in and had the worst outing of his MLB career. He induced a ground ball from Drew Millas that should have been a double play. However, Xander Bogaerts failed to touch second base and Crews slid hard into the bag, forcing Bogaerts to fall over.

It only got worse from there. Manager Craig Stammen received the first ejection of his Padres tenure before Rodriguez walked in another run. An out was finally recorded with James Wood striking out and it seemed like the damage might finally be over.

But then Luis García Jr. hit a single to score two runners, making the score 6-3, Washington. Daylen Lile grounded into an RBI force out and Abrams came back up to finally end the inning by striking out. It was a dismal performance from Rodriguez in what has been a phenomenal rookie year thus far.

However, with all that in mind, the Friars slugged three homers and one of them was Fernando Tatis Jr. to end his season-long drought. Good things did happen for the Padres, but that one inning cost them the game. They’ll face off today in the rubber match against the Nationals.

Taking the mound

Zack Littell (WAS) v. Griffin Canning (SD)

Littell was a surprising signing by the Nats this offseason. The righty spent more time on the free agency board than most expected and had to settle for a one-year, $7 million contract with the club.

He hasn’t exactly rewarded that, posting a 5.23 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. But Littell has looked good lately, giving up just three runs over his last 17 innings pitched.

Despite Canning having a phenomenal outing in his last start, he lost because San Diego failed to score a run against the Philadelphia Phillies. Across 6 2/3 innings, Canning only surrendered three runs.

He’s looked better lately after getting off to a rough start. Canning has been saddled with a 7.54 ERA that doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s had some tough luck with balls in play but has performed serviceably. He shouldn’t have any trouble limiting this Washington lineup.

Batter up!

It was beautiful to see Tatis break his homerless streak. It’s been rough going, but the slugger has heated up lately. Tatis is batting .481/.548/.630 with an OPS over 1.000 in his last seven games. Here’s hoping the home runs come in bunches.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Gavin Sheets, 1B
3. Miguel Andujar, DH
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Jackson Merrill, CF
7. Ramón Laureano, LF
8. Nick Castellanos, RF
9. Freddy Fermin, C

Machado, despite his lack of hits (.178 batting average), managed to mash his team-leading 10th homer of the season in Saturday’s game. He owns a .333 career average against Littell (12 at-bats).

The Padres have historically hit Littell well, with a combined .338 batting average and 1.148 OPS against the righty (74 at-bats). If they can rake against him today, a San Diego series victory would be markedly easier.

Relief corps

With the bullpen taxed after Friday’s game, the Friars only used Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta to finish out the game. That ended with an uncharacteristic implosion, but it shouldn’t today.

The Padres have plenty of options to turn to if Canning falters. Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are all available to pitch in relief. If San Diego can clinch the rubber match, Miller will surely come in to pitch the save.

Legitimate signs of hope have been few and far between for Washington Nationals fans since the storybook title run in 2019. Pieces being sold, starting pitching being a revolving door of mediocrity (at best) and inconsistency, and the lack of a true team identity for much of the 2020s.

2026 wasn’t viewed as a turning point going into the season. A makeshift bullpen, a rotation with some steady pieces but lacking star power, and an offense that could flash potential but still contained too many questions to be counted on. Flash forward to today, the Nats are sitting one game over .500 at 30-29 on the last day before the calendar flips to June.

The bullpen continues to leave a lot to be desired, the rotation has just two starters posting a sub-4.00 ERA, and top prospect Dylan Crews, once projected to be one of the driving forces in the lineup, has bounced between AAA and MLB.

But, with all of that being said, the Nats just continue to get it done.

They have gone 4-0-1 in their last 5 series, with a chance to improve to 5-0-1 in the series finale against San Diego on Sunday. Foster Griffin and Cade Cavalli’s return to extended big-league action has anchored the top end of the pitching staff. Multiple relievers have put together runs of being late-inning options who can be counted on.

However, the star of the show is the offense. James Wood continues to be everything Nationals’ fans could’ve hoped for and more, and CJ Abrams is not far behind him. Joey Wiemer and Keibert Ruiz have provided sufficient depth when called upon, and arguably the biggest surprise of the season, Curtis Mead, has yet to stop hammering baseballs whenever given the chance.

Whether it’s offensive explosions, gritty pitching performances, or just doing whatever is possible to add to the win column, the Nats keep doing it.

Fans are back in the stands, with some even bringing the widespread “tarps off” trend into the bleachers. The farm system is producing new developmental success stories left and right. The coaching staff seems to be building a culture worth believing in. Baseball in the nation’s capital is as exciting as it has been in years.

While the National League continues to flex its muscles as the more competitive half of MLB in the standings, the Nats have kept themselves squarely in the middle of the playoff race as the season continues into its middle stages. Sitting 2.0 games back of a playoff spot and 4.0 games clear of the team closest following them, the Miami Marlins, Washington hasn’t wavered as the contenders begin to separate themselves.

A lot can happen from now until the start of October. Seasons can collapse, trades can shake up the foundation of the league, and teams can cement themselves as true competitors as the postseason inches closer. What category the 2026 Washington Nationals will fall into remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. This team refuses to roll over and accept its presumed identity as a rebuilding franchise.

In a sport where the impending Summer can fuel electrifying stretches from the unlikeliest of places, why not the Nats?

The piggyback is the best thing going for the Mariners’ rotation right now.

The Mariners on Sunday will use Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo in a tandem start against the Diamondbacks. Miller will get the ball first and pitch for a while, then Castillo will come out of the bullpen to finish the job. It’s the third attempt at this strategy, and it’s likely the final one for at least a couple weeks. To be entirely up front, I hope it comes back.

I assume you know the story. Miller began the year on the injured list. Emerson Hancock took his spot, as he has in the past. But unlike the past, Hancock has been good — so good that it would be unconscionable to remove him from the rotation. That meant when the Miller returned, there was no natural, five-man rotation spot for him to claim. The Mariners have George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Logan Gilbert as their main trio (with Hancock threatening to make it a quartet), and they have Castillo as their once-great veteran to round out the group. It’s not the best rotation in the league, but it’s a unique rotation, with four or five good starters and no true holes. 

This dynamic created a handful of options: 

1. Keep Miller in Tacoma after his rehab stint was up
2. Release or trade a starter
3. Move a starter to the bullpen
4. Adopt a six-slot rotation
5. Create a tandem start out of a five-slot rotation

The Mariners went with option five, asking Miller and Castillo to “piggyback” their outings, with one throwing half the game and the other taking what remains. They’ve done it twice, and both times it worked. The first, Miller started and Castillo relieved. The Mariners lost because they only scored one run, but together they combined for eight innings, 11 strikeouts, two hits and two runs. The second, Castillo started and Miller relieved. They covered all nine innings with 10 strikeouts, seven hits, and two runs allowed.

The tandem through two starts has thrown 17 innings with a 2.11 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 11.7 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9. That would be the Mariners best starter. The sample size is meaningless, and these numbers will be different by supper time. But there’s a reason it’s working, and there’s a reason it needs to.

The Mariners on the first turn through a lineup have a league-best 2.70 FIP. They’re striking out batters, limiting walks, and justifying their reputation as a dominant pitching organization. It’s across the board, too. Castillo, Miller — all of them — have been good on the first pass.

It gets sticky from there. On the second turn, the Mariners have been worse. This is to be expected: Batters gain an advantage the more they see a pitcher in a game. Five of the Mariners pitchers are still above average on the second pass — Woo has even gotten better — and they’re one of the best teams on this split overall. But Castillo has struggled mightily as soon as the lineup turns over, which is why he was chosen for the tandem.

The wheels come off for most of them on the third turn. The Mariners have been one of the 10 worst rotations by FIP after 18 batters, giving up lots of hard contact and homers. With their early-game excellence, no rotation has faced more batters on the third pass, making the drop quite abrupt. Note that Castillo looks a bit better on this split, but the sample is small because he’s often pulled before or during the third turn. Miller looks bad, too, though he reached the third pass just once in his first outing.

Regardless, we can see whythe Mariners would want to piggyback. They have six pitchers who’ve been great for one turn, they have five pitchers who’ve been good for two turns, and they have just two pitchers who’ve been passable late. The drop-off in quality has been an issue for this group dating back to last season (I even advocated for the piggyback over the winter).

That’s the logic of the strategy. Sticking two starters together allows the Mariners to cluster more innings around those first-pass splits and avoid both the third pass and the low-leverage bullpen. Sure, it may eat up a reliever spot, but because the piggyback can cover three or four turns through the lineup, they can get most or all the job done on their own. The piggyback and a travel day gave the Mariners bullpen two full days of rest this week, and it’s possible they could get a third with another strong performance Sunday.

This is also why I wince at the notion of a six-man rotation. It might solve the issue of needing to hoard quality starting pitchers, but it doesn’t address the fundamental, in-game longevity issue the Mariners face. It may even compound it by adding more games with starters unlikely to finish six, forcing more innings onto the low-leverage bullpen while still eliminating a reliever.

And so I’m disappointed to hear the Mariners will switch to a six-man rotation after Sunday’s piggyback, at least temporarily. The rationale is there are only three off days in June, and the arrangement will help manage their workload. They’re stalling, in other words.

Now, the issue with the piggyback — and the reason the Mariners are stalling — is it’s not popular with the guinea pigs. Miller and Castillo have each expressed dissatisfaction, and there’s been a few awkward shots of the fellas huffing and puffing in the dugout.

For Miller, it’s understandable. He’s been great, and he probably feels that he’s being punished for his injuries. That said, the Mariners aren’t wrong for holding him back initially. I wrote this winter that Miller last year showed a steep decline in velocity and release point on the third pass. It was worth being cautious, allowing him to ease back into the majors and start from a place of success.

And he has. His stuff is sharp and varied, with a massive, unpredictable arsenal chock full of plus pitches. And he’s held a mid- to high-90s fastball for as long as he’s been asked. The good and healthy version of Miller could be the Mariners best pitcher, and he looks good and healthy right now. The shift to the six-man rotation tells me the Mariners agree and are ready to see how he manages a proper workload.

Technically, this gives Castillo a sort of “prove it” period as well, but I think his fate is somewhat sealed at the bottom of the depth chart. He’s a former ace-ish pitcher in the decline phase of his career. What Castillo offers right now is something between a very good swingman and a perfectly fine spot starter. Anything more than that, he gets exposed. Anything more than that, the Mariners are worse for it. To be fair, it’s a unique situation, as Castillo would be a fine mid-rotation starter for many other teams. It’s just here where Castillo represents a notable dip.

But it’s also here where his specific skillset could be a boon. Whether it’s Miller or Hancock or even just a general, rotating piggyback, the Mariners have several pitchers who struggle deep in games. Somebody has to cover those innings, and Castillo remains a highly effective pitcher at medium length. He can still be a weapon for this team. He can still be a rock. Maybe it’s less of a piggyback, and more of a catapult.

This week’s Braves road trip has already been a success.

They’ve won two more series, bringing their series record to 16-2-1 on the season. They became the first team to reach 40 wins with Saturday’s 5-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds, reaching a season-high 21 games above .500.

Atlanta looks to make it a 5-1 road trip in Sunday’s 1:40 p.m. EDT series finale against the Reds at the Great American Ballpark.

The Braves will give the ball to Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46 ERA) as they look for a sweep of Cincinnati.

After a rocky, erratic season debut at Colorado, Strider has found a real rhythm in his last four starts. He’s thrown five-plus innings and allowed three runs or less in his last four starts, winning his last two and three of his last four.

He’s also posted a batting average against of .171 or lower in each of his last four starts, allowing 11 hits over 22 2/3 innings with 26 strikeouts and 10 walks.

Strider has a strong track record against the Cincinnati Reds, albeit not having faced them since 2023. He has a 1-0 record and 2.77 record in three appearances (two starts) with 25 strikeouts to three walks.

The Reds will counter with southpaw Nick Lodolo (1-1, 5.57). Like Strider with his oblique, Lodolo missed the start of the season with a blister. He made his season debut May 8, five days after Strider did and has made one fewer start (four).

Unlike Strider, Lodolo didn’t get off to a very strong delayed start, posting a 7.20 ERA and 0-1 record through his first three outings, striking out 11 and walking nine.

He’s coming off a breakthrough start, however, having thrown a season-high six innings and allowing one run on six hits, striking out seven and walking one in a 7-2 road win over the New York Mets on Monday.

Aside from chase percentage, there’s a whole lot of blue on Lodolo’s Statcast profile.

Lodolo has one career appearance against the Braves in May of 2025. He didn’t factor into the decision after allowing two runs on five hits over six innings (3.00 ERA), striking out seven and walking none in a game Atlanta won 5-4 in 11 innings.

Game Info

Game Time: Sunday, May 31st, 1:40 pm EDT

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Good morning, folks…

The Texas Rangers beat the Kansas City Royals yesterday by a score of 7-6.

Evan Grant writes that the Rangers come from behind victory sets them up to potentially have a winning homestand.

Joc Pederson homered in the win, and is looking like the guy the Rangers thought they were signing.

Evan Carter and Alejandro Osuna were banged up on Saturday, but both appear to be no worse than day-to-day right now.

Corey Seager had a good day Saturday fielding, running and hitting, as he looks to be on track to return to game action before long.

Wyatt Langford started a rehab assignment with Round Rock on Saturday.

A pair of former Rangers — one who we have generally fond memories of, one who we don’t — were enshrined in the New York Mets Hall of Fame on Saturday.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

Columbus Clippers 3, Toledo Mud Hens 1

Clippers improve to 30-25

In a game without many hits, Columbus got its biggest one in the first inning as Bo Naylor had a two-run single to score Kahlil Watson and Juan Brito.

Watson was the only Clipper who reached base safely twice, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Cooper Ingle doubled and Nolan Jones tripled and scored the other run on a sacrifice fly from Angel Genao.

Starting pitcher Pedro Avila was solid, allowing one run on three hits in 5.0 innings. He struck out seven and walked four. 

The bullpen was sensational as Jack Leftwich and Franco Aleman both pitched 2.0 scoreless, hitless innings with just one walk between them while striking out a combined five. 

Akron RubberDucks 10, Richmond Flying Squirrels 3

RubberDucks improve to 27-23

Akron got an offensive eruption with five of its 10 hits going for extra bases on Saturday. 

Joe Lampe had himself a day, going 3-for-4 with a triple, a double, two runs scored and two RBIs. Alfonsin Rosario also was excellent, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and an outfield assist.

Alex Mooney has been playing better of late. He went 2-for-4 with a double, three RBIs and two runs scored while Jose Devers went 2-for-4 with a walk to reach base safely three times.

Starting pitcher Dylan DeLucia had his best outing of the season. He allowed one run (zero earned) on four hits with five strikeouts and one walk in 6.0 innings, yet he didn’t get the win because Akron waited to score seven of its runs in the eighth inning.

Adam Tulloch and Hunter Stanley closed out the win with 2.1 combined scoreless innings of relief.

Lake County Captains 8, Beloit Sky Carp 3

Captains improve to 27-22

The bottom of Lake County’s lineup did all the damage on Saturday. 

Catcher Logun Clark went 2-for-3 with a home run and a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-2 with three walks and a stolen base and Maick Collado went 2-for-3 with a double and two walks.

Tommy Hawke also set the table nicely, going 1-for-4 with a walk and two stolen bases while Aaron Walton doubled. 

Fresh off a strong week, Jace LaViolette backslid by going 0-for-5 with a golden sombrero.

Starting pitcher Rafe Schlesinger pitched well, allowing one run (zero earned) on three hits with five strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings.

Donovan Zsak, Izaak Martinez and Luis Flores combined for 3.1 scoreless innings of relief to close out the win.

Hill City Howlers 7, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 17

Howlers fall to 25-25

The craziest part about this game was based on the final score, you’d have thought starting pitcher Chase Mobley got drilled, but he had one of his best outings of the season. 

Mobley allowed one hit with one strikeout and no walks in 2.0 scoreless innings on 32 pitches.

Zane Petty, on the other hand, was tattooed for five runs on six hits in his 3.0 innings of work. Then reliever Aaron Savery got absolutely destroyed for seven runs on seven hits with three walks and no strikeout sin 1.1 innings. Eudry Alcantara didn’t fare much better, allowing another five runs on six hits in 1.2 innings.

Position player Yerlin Luis ended the onslaught with a scoreless ninth inning.

Offensively, Hill City had some bright spots. Yelferth Castillo had a monster game, going 3-for-4 with two doubles and a walk.

Luis De La Cruz also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double, three RBIs and two steals and Cannon Peebles went 1-for-3 with a double, two walks and a stolen base.

Things are bleak for the New York Mets, towering walk-off home runs from MJ Melendez and a three-game win streak aside. The team has under-performed, been bitten by the injury bug, and overall has been abysmal offensively. The boom-or-bust cycle of the Steve Cohen era is trending once again toward bust in 2026. It’s painful for any fan base to accept the idea of your team being a deadline seller before the summer gets going.

Juan Soto’s continued play at an MVP level might ease some of that pain.

Soto’s last few weeks have been some of the best of his career, and he has appeared like an oasis in the desert that is the Mets’ lineup. It took Soto a while to get going after returning from an early-season calf injury that kept him out for most of April, but he has been spectacular since May 14.

Reaching base safely in the 14 games since then, Soto has been the consistent presence that you would expect from someone earning his astronomical salary. He’s has a 1.310 OPS, eight home runs, 13 RBIs, and 15 runs scored. The kind of hot streak where you could tell your friends that a home run is coming before a Soto at bat, and you just might be right.

Soto’s play as of late has been so impressive that he had Joey Votto singing his praises on a recent MLB Network appearance. Votto compared Soto to Hall of Famer Mel Ott and said that Soto is one of the most important players of the post-integration era.

“I would argue that Juan Soto may be among the best three to five best left-handed hitters of all time,” he added. “Juan Soto is playing against the best players of all time. We’re at the peak of baseball, we’re at the peak of drug testing, we’re at the peak of everything…That’s just my take and he’s been quoted saying that he thinks that he’s the best hitter of all time. I don’t think he’s out of school for that.”

Now that Soto appears to have recovered from injuries and is actively producing, the question for the last-place Mets is: Can the lineup around him help with some of the heavy lifting? So far, the answer is clear no.

New York is 22-19 in games Soto has started, but the team somehow struggles to get wins when he has a big day. In wins, Soto has an .810 OPS with four home runs, and he has a 1.162 OPS with eight home runs in losses. It couldn’t hurt for the rest of the lineup to pile on in games where Soto breaks through or find a way to make teams pay for pitching around him more often.

It can be hard for Mets fans to be positive, and that’s completely reasonable. But maybe Soto at his best and the nearing returns of Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alveraz, and Jorge Polanco can jolt this lineup enough for the club to at least claw back to .500.

If not, the chance to watch Soto is enough for the price of admission and enough to keep tuning in for the rest of the season.

Rangers 7, Royals 6

• What a weird game.
• Kumar Rocker went six shutout innings despite walking more batters (3) than he struck out (2).
• Rocker wasn’t missing bats — he got 9 swings and misses on 85 pitches — and he gave up a good amount of hard contact. And although he’s usually a ground ball pitcher, the Royals put a bunch of balls in the air against him.
• But he still kept Kansas City off the board. The biggest jam he got into was in the third inning, when a single and a pair of walks resulted in a bases loaded, two out situation, but Rocker got Salvador Perez to ground out to end the inning.
• Rocker even ended up retiring the final nine batters he faced. He left the game with a 3-0 lead, and surely, with the Rangers’ bullpen going up against a bad Royals offense, Rocker would end up with the win.
• Right?
• Of course not. Things don’t work out that easily for the Rangers.
• Tyler Alexander and Jakob Junis combined to strike out the side in the seventh. That would be much more exciting news if the Royals didn’t also bat around in the seventh, with a double, four singles and another double plating four runs and turning the 3-0 lead into a 4-3 deficit.
• Alexander did get credit for a Hold, however, because the Rangers were still up when he left the game. This, despite retiring just one of four batters he faced. That’s kind of funny.
• Chris Martin exacerbated things in the eighth inning, issuing a walk to start the inning and then giving up a homer to Carter Jensen.
• Chris Martin is now sporting a 7.84 ERA, a 7.56 xERA and a 6.35 FIP. That makes me sad.
• Texas had gotten on the board in the first on a Josh Jung home run, then scored a pair of unearned runs in the fourth thanks to an E5 on a fielder’s choice that resulted in runners on first and second with no one out. Alejandro Osuna bunted the runners over, but in doing so hurt his finger and ultimately had to leave the game, because of course what the Rangers really need right now is more injured hitters.
• Anyway, the Rangers scored two in the fourth, with offensive catalyst Nicky Lopez singling home the second of those two runs.
• I know y’all are fired up about Nicky Lopez.
• The Rangers rallied in the eighth and were in position to tie the game, as a Jake Burger double, Ezequiel Duran walk, and Danny Jansen double made it a 6-4 game with runners on second and third and one out. Justin Foscue, pinch hitting for Lopez, popped out, and then Michael Helman, for some reason, tried a two out bunt but popped it up for the third out.
• At this point I was all prepared to talk in the thoughts post about how this is what happens when you are relying on the likes of Justin Foscue and Michael Helman to take key at bats and drive home runs late in the game. You fall short and you end up losing and that’s the way it is.
• But instead I can talk about how you should never lose hope, you should never give up, you should always keep believing.
• Joc Pederson led off the ninth with a home run, his eighth of the season, one fewer than he had all last year.
• The Rangers were suddenly down just one.
• Josh Jung smoked a ball into the hole at shortstop that Bobby Witt Jr. made a great diving stop on. Jung, not the fleetest Ranger, seemed like he’d be a dead duck at first base. Witt rushed the throw to first, however, and it went way wide, resulting in Jung getting credit for an infield single.
• Brandon Nimmo then hit a chopper back up the middle. If Lucas Erceg, the Royals reliever, lets it go past him, it is probably a double play. However, Erceg tries to make a play on it, and it caroms off his glove. Nimmo beats the throw to first for an infield single.
• Can you feel the momentum building? Were you sensing a miraculous comeback was at hand?
• Or were you convinced that this was a tease, that the Rangers were just setting things up for a heartbreaking loss?
• Jake Burger swung at a 2-0 pitch but didn’t get good wood on the ball. It ended up working out for the best, as he flared the ball the other way, just beyond the infield into right field, for a game-tying single.
• That set the stage for Ezequiel Duran, who blooped a 1-1 pitch the opposite way. It fell in front of Royals right fielder Jac Caglianone. Brandon Nimmo, at third, broke home once the ball fell in, and slid in ahead of the throw.
• Ballgame. A walk off win.
• And the first ever major league win for Peyton Gray, whose scoreless ninth inning kept the Rangers in position to make the comeback.
• Think how made Royals fans must be about this game. The Pederson homer to get the game within one. Then two infield hits, followed by a flare and a bloop, and your team lost.
• Its just the second time this season that a reliever has gotten walked off while facing at least five batters and retiring none of them. The other one was Jordan Romano against the Angels last month.
• And it is only the second time in Rangers history that the Rangers have walked it off in such a scenario. The only other time was in 2008, when Fernando Rodney faced six Rangers, retired none of them, and was walked off on a Chris Davis bases loaded single.
• Joc Pederson’s homer was 108.0 mph. Brandon Nimmo had a 104.6 mph groundout, a 104.1 mph fly out and a 102.8 mph single. Josh Jung had a 102.2 mph homer and a 101.1 mph single. Jake Burger had a 101.9 mph single.
• Kumar Rocker’s fastball topped out at 94.9 mph, averaging 93.4 mph. Tyler Alexander touched 92.7 mph with his fastball. Jakob Junis hit 94.9 mph with his sinker. Chris Martin’s fastball reached 94.7 mph. Peyton Gray maxed out at 93.6 mph with his fastball.
• Let’s go sweeping on Sunday.