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All 30 MLB teams are in action tonight, and I've got MLB picks for all 15 games.

Here are my favorite leans and looks for MLB moneyline predictions for Tuesday, June 23, featuring the underdog Rockies.

MLB moneyline picks for June 23

Matchup	Pick
Astros vs Blue Jays	+120
Royals vs Rays	+170
Yankees vs Tigers	-106
Rangers vs Marlins	-147
Mariners vs Pirates	+115
Phillies vs Nationals	-156
Brewers vs Reds	-102
Cubs vs Mets	-106
Dodgers vs Twins	+160
Guardians vs White Sox	-104
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals	-106
Red Sox vs Rockies	+150
Orioles vs Angels	-135
Braves vs Padres	-106
Athletics vs Giants	+125

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-23.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 23

Astros vs Blue Jays: Astros (+120)

Astros win probability: 46%

Shane Bieber makes his first start of the season, and while Houston’s offense has been inconsistent lately, this is still a spot I am hesitant to trust a pitcher who has not taken a major-league mound since November 1, 2025.

Early-season timing, rhythm, and command are always questions in a return like this.

On the other side, Peter Lambert has been steady and serviceable for the Astros, giving them a more stable and warmed-up option in this matchup.

In a spot that could swing on execution rather than talent, I prefer the arm that is already in midseason form and operating with a defined recent workload.

Royals vs Rays: Royals (+170)

Royals win probability: 37%

“But Colby, you said you could never trust this offense yesterday.”

Yeah, I still do not fully trust them, but over their last 12 games, they have posted a 135 wRC+, .825 OPS, and a .362 wOBA while also generating a 33.6% hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, the Rays have cooled off over that same stretch, sitting under a 34% hard-hit rate and below a 6% barrel rate.

Tampa Bay left-hander Shane McClanahan has been inconsistent lately, while Royals right-hander Luinder Avila has also shown some volatility. Away from home, McClanahan has been much sharper, owning a 1.80 ERA, 3.16 xERA, and a 1.08 WHIP.

I will side with the hotter offense in this spot.

Yankees vs Tigers: Yankees (-106)

Yankees win probability: 52%

Casey Mize has been strong for the Tigers this season, but I still cannot trust their offense. Over their last six games, Detroit has posted a 96 wRC+, .682 OPS, and .146 ISO, showing limited impact at the plate.

On the other side, the Yankees offense has stayed consistent, producing a 121 wRC+, .791 OPS, and .348 wOBA over their last 12 games. Carlos Rodon has also been steady overall, carrying a 3.50 ERA on the season with a 3.37 expected ERA.

In this matchup, I will side with the more consistent offense.

Rangers vs Marlins: Marlins (-147)

Marlins win probability: 60%

Cal Quantrill makes his first start of the season after working out of the bullpen, carrying a 3.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in that role. Miami’s offense has been productive lately, and this is a spot where I can see their bats staying hot against a below-average arm.

Sandy Alcantara has not been at his sharpest this season, but I would still rather trust him in this matchup than Quantrill. The veteran right-hander's recent profile raises concern, with a 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate over his last few outings.

In a game with scoring potential on both sides, I will side with the Marlins offense.

Mariners vs Pirates: Pirates (+115)

Pirates win probability: 46%

I will happily take the Rally Rats in this spot at home. They have played their best baseball all season in their own ballpark and are seeing the ball well lately.

Mitch Keller has been fairly unreliable, but I view this as a spot where Pittsburgh’s offense can be the driving force behind a win.

Seattle has been ice cold over its last 12 games, posting a 70 wRC+, .087 ISO, and just a 31.5% hard-hit rate. George Kirby has also struggled in his recent outings, carrying a 5.60 ERA and a .161 WHIP over his last five starts.

I expect this Pirates offense to get on top of his stuff early and often.

Phillies vs Nationals: Phillies (-156)

Phillies win probability: 61%

Nationals right-hander Zack Littell profiles for trouble in this spot.

At home this season he carries a 6.31 ERA and 6.96 xERA while allowing a 45% hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate, all indicators of sustained damage risk. With that in mind, Bryce Harper stands out individually, and it also strengthens the case for backing the full Phillies offense.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has been excellent on the road, posting a 1.55 ERA while limiting hard contact consistently.

Even with the elevated price, the underlying profile and matchup point toward Philadelphia as the side worth backing.

Brewers vs Reds: Brewers (-102)

Brewers win probability: 50%

This one came down to the wire last night, but I still believe the Brewers are the right side here.

Cincinnati right-hander Nick Lodolo has been shaky at home this season, carrying a 7.27 ERA and 6.76 xERA while allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels to opposing hitters. On the other side, Brandon Sproat has not been much better, but he limits free passes and benefits from a lower BABIP profile.

Offensively, Cincinnati has been ice cold over the last 20 games, posting an 87 wRC+, 26.3% strikeout rate, and a .675 OPS as a team. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has stayed locked in with a 131 wRC+, .819 OPS, and .182 ISO over that same stretch.

Once again, this comes down to the more consistent offense, and that edge clearly belongs to Milwaukee.

Cubs vs Mets: Mets (-106)

Mets win probability: 52%

My MLB player props are already high on Juan Soto to do damage at the dish tonight, especially given how much Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera has struggled since returning from injury.

On the other side, Kodai Senga has also been inconsistent, so this is less about trusting either arm and more about targeting the spot.

The Cubs have been swinging it well, but I am leaning into the Mets offense to jump on Cabrera early and set the tone in this one.

Dodgers vs Twins: Twins (+160)

Twins win probability: 38%

As surprising as it is to say, the Twins have been rolling lately. Over their last 12 games, they are posting a .380 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and an .811 OPS, showing real life at the plate.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have cooled off over their last six games with a .300 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and .664 OPS.

Los Angeles sends southpaw Justin Wrobleski to the mound, who carries a 4.61 expected ERA on the road while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and a 9.29% barrel rate to opposing hitters. For Minnesota, Kendry Rojas gets the ball with a 1.26 ERA this season, though the walk rate is a concern.

Even so, given how hot the Twins offense has been, I am willing to take the shot on their bats continuing to produce.

Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-104)

Guardians win probability: 51%

Guardians right-hander Parker Messick has been excellent this season, entering today with one of the highest pitcher ratings on the slate. On the other side, Sean Burke takes the mound for the White Sox, and he has not been the most consistent option in their rotation.

Chicago also comes in off a walk-off win last night, which adds a potential letdown spot into the mix. Burke has shown vulnerability to hard contact, and I expect Cleveland to take advantage and get to him early this evening.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-106)

Cardinals win probability: 49%

It is the Cardinals again, and I am very high on Ivan Herrera in this spot against Eduardo Rodriguez. That alone makes it hard to ignore the rest of the St. Louis lineup.

Per Batters-Box, the Cardinals rank as the seventh highest rated offense on the slate, while Rodriguez enters with the fourth-worst pitcher rating in the current season sample. That is a tough combination to overlook.

Arizona’s offense has cooled off over the last few weeks, while St. Louis has been one of the hotter lineups in baseball recently. In a spot like this, I want the offense that is trending up, and that points directly to the Cardinals.

Red Sox vs Rockies: Rockies (+150)

Rockies win probability: 40%

Run it back with the Rockies.

Simply put, the Red Sox have looked lifeless at the plate, while Colorado is starting to find some rhythm offensively. Even with last night coming down to a walk-off win, I am still willing to back the Rockies here at plus money.

At +150, the price is too strong to ignore given the current form on both sides. Colorado’s offense is showing signs of life, and in a spot like this, I am willing to ride the hotter bats and fade a Boston lineup that just has not been consistent.

Orioles vs Angels: Orioles (-135)

Orioles win probability: 57%

Simply put, this is a fade of a struggling arm in a favorable matchup. Ryan Johnson has been ice cold for the Angels, carrying a 12.83 ERA and 2.33 WHIP on the season, making it difficult to trust him in any competitive spot.

On the other side, the Orioles offense has started to heat up, posting a 116 wRC+, .195 ISO, and .339 wOBA over their last 12 games, showing real improvement at the plate.

The Angels lineup does not offer much resistance here either, with only two strong-rated hitters in this matchup. In a spot like this, I will side with the Orioles offense against a pitcher I am fading.

Braves vs Padres: Braves (-106)

Braves win probability: 52%

If German Marquez is on the mound tonight for the Padres, the Braves are an automatic look for me. He owns a 10.38 ERA at home this season while allowing a near 50% hard-hit rate and an 11.11% barrel rate to opposing hitters, which is a tough combination to trust in any matchup.

According to Batters-Box, Atlanta also brings seven elite-rated bats into this spot against him, which is more than enough firepower to create damage throughout the lineup.

Athletics vs Giants: Athletics (+125)

Athletics win probability: 44%

Aaron Civale is on the mound for the Athletics this evening, but I am not fully willing to trust that clubhouse with everything going on around Rafael Devers.

Instead, I am willing to take a shot fading Robbie Ray at plus money. The Athletics offense has been swinging it well lately, and getting value against a pitcher who has not been at his sharpest this season feels like the right side.

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The New York Yankees are -110 favorites on the road against the Detroit Tigers tonight at Comerica Park, with the total set at 7.5 for the middle game of a three-game series.

New York limps in having dropped three straight and four of its last five, while Detroit rides a four-game winning streak.

My Yankees vs Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 23, expect those trends to continue.

Who will win Yankees vs Tigers today: Tigers (-104)

I've faded Carlos Rodon a good deal this season, and I'm doing it again, backing the Detroit Tigers. He has elite strikeout stuff, but there's a notable issue in this matchup.

His Bottom 9th percentile walk rate at just over 13% puts free runners on against a Tigers offense that has heated up as of late and does a good job of putting the ball into play. 

Casey Mize has historically handled this group with a 3.63 ERA across four career starts, including two quality starts against the New York Yankees last season.

That makes sense, too, given his swing-and-miss stuff that has peaked this season with a 25%+ strikeout rate. I'd play this to -120.

COVERS INTEL:Carlos Rodon's average exit velocity allowed sits in the 8th percentile in 2026 at 90.9 mph.

Yankees vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-116)

Both starters carry command issues, and both lineups are built to exploit them. 

Mize returned from his second IL stint of the season last Wednesday and admitted his last outing was undone by too many three-ball counts — allowing three runs in just over four innings against a similar-hitting-profile team in the Houston Astros.

The Yankees lineup still has Paul Goldschmidt turning time back with a .898 OPS and Ben Rice (.389 xwOBA) doing damage. While I think Mize has some success, he'll give up enough here with the Tigers doing the heavy lifting. Play to 8.

Yankees vs Tigers weather

Temps are expected to hover around 70 degrees F come game time, with little chance of rain and slight winds.

Yankees vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -115 | Tigers +100
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Tigers +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Tigers trend

The Detroit Tigers have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Tigers.

How to watch Yankees vs Tigers and game info

Yankees vs Tigers latest injuries

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

We are aren’t yet to the 2026 season’s halfway point yet, with the Reds having played 77 games so far. We are still at the point where it’s recent memory to point out that TJ Friedl was the team’s starting CF for over half of those games (39), and the team’s leadoff hitter for nearly half of them (35).

It both feels like ages since Friedl was optioned to AAA Louisville after his awful start to the year and that he was an everyday regular for years just minutes ago. However, the timing of his play falling off a cliff coinciding with several other factors begs the question of not just if we’ll see him back with the Reds at some point this season, but if we’ll ever see him in a Cincinnati Reds uniform again.

Friedl, who’ll turn 31 in August, is making some $3.8 million this season after his first trip through the arbitration process over the winter. The nature of the arbitration system dictates that he’ll get at least that, and likely a raise, when he goes through it next winter – if the Reds choose to tender him a contract for the year he’ll turn 32.

As his offensive production cratered this year, it’s worth pointing out that some of the things that also showed significant diminishment, too. His sprint speed dipped to just the 32nd percentile, per Baseball Savant, down to just 26.7 feet per second – decidedly not bueno for a guy with little power who plays a premium defensive position and typically bats atop the order. Just three seasons ago (before his hamstring problems), he was at 28.3 feet per second, and his range metrics were much, much better accordingly. Father time, as we know, may not be linear, but is undefeated.

Beyond that, Blake Dunn has simply been better in CF than Friedl, and has the speed and baserunning chops to lap him. Dane Myers has beenprecisely the addition the Reds hoped from the right-side of the plate in that mix, while the corner spots in the outfield seem seized by JJ Bleday and a resurgent Noelvi Marte. And if the Reds want to add another left-handed outfielder to the mix, they’ve got Hector Rodriguez on the 40-man roster and on a heater himself at AAA right now, too.

Friedl’s path back to the active roster in 2026 seems overgrown with obstacles galore. His age and contract situation make seeing him tendered a contract this winter cloudy, at best. That means the Reds might well try to trade him for whatever they can get before the August 3rd deadline, though for all the reasons I’ve already laid out above they might not get any takers.

TJ owns an .840 OPS in the 15 games he’s played at AAA, so he’s not been nearly as bad down there as he was with the Reds. He has popped 3 homers, and is slugging .492. There’s obviously a chance that there are tweaks he’s made to make him more akin to the guy who posted a 2.4 bWAR season at the big league level just last year while owning a .364 OBP. The issue is, though, that he’s running out of time to make that impression sink in deep enough with the Reds brass before they have to make the call.

So, what say you for this week’s MLB Reacts question? Has TJ played his last game for the Reds, or not?

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The YRFI-NRFI props have been good to me over the last few weeks, so let's try to keep the good juju rolling!

Here are my favorite NRFI predictions and MLB picks for today's slate, featuring a prediction for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals. 

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-142
/ - YRFI	-121
/ - YRFI	-121

Guardians at White Sox: NRFI (-142)

This one may be a sweat, but I think it is the right side.

Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has been vulnerable in the first inning, allowing eight runs across 11 starts this season. However, the Cleveland Guardians have also struggled to generate early offense, ranking 24th in first inning runs and averaging just 0.37 runs in the first inning on the road.

Surprisingly, the White Sox have been even worse at home than they are on the road when it comes to early scoring, producing only 0.43 first inning runs at home.

They draw Parker Messick, who enters today with an elite pitcher rating and has yet to allow a first inning run through 15 starts. Opposing hitters are batting just .100 with a .182 OBP and .140 SLG against him in the opening frame.

I think the top half will be the sweatiest part of this bet, but I still believe the NRFI is the right move here.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, CLEG

Rangers at Marlins: YRFI (-121)

I am not going to lie to you, Cal Quantrill got me here.

The Texas Rangers starter brings a poorly-rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact into this evening, as he draws three elite rated Miami Marlins bats and two more with strong ratings. This will be his first start of the season after working out of the bullpen for Texas.

He owns a 3.68 lifetime ERA, while opposing hitters have posted a .410 SLG and .703 OPS. With the Marlins offense seeing the ball well lately, I trust them in this spot against a struggling veteran profile.

On the other side, Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Fish. So far this season, he has allowed 10 runs through 16 innings, carrying a 5.72 ERA. Opposing hitters are slashing .308/.446/.764 against him.

The Rangers bring two strongly-rated bats to the table, which I think is enough to do damage against the former Cy Young winner.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, RSN

Diamondbacks at Cardinals: YRFI (-121)

This matchup as a whole sets up for an offensive spike, with seven hitters in this game grading out as at least strong on Batters-Box. On the current season dataset, there are five elite-rated bats and two more in the strong tier.

On the mound, the Arizona Diamondbacks send left hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled in the first inning with a 6.00 ERA, allowing 10 runs across 15 starts. Opposing hitters are posting a .276 batting average, .382 OBP, .534 SLG, and .917 OPS against him. He has also issued 10 walks over that span.

The St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy, who has been more stable early, allowing six runs through 14 starts with a 3.86 ERA and just six walks in that sample.

Arizona has not been swinging the hottest bats of late, but the matchup sets up well enough against Leahy to keep them in play. On the other side, the Cardinals have been red-hot, which is ultimately the angle I am leaning on to do the scoring here.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, ARID

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Jac Caglianone is fully in the running for AL player of the month for June, with just a week left. As of this morning, he is third in the AL in wRC+ behind only his Team Italy teammate Dominic Canzone and Yordan Alvarez, who could become the AL MVP favorite if Bobby Witt Jr. misses significant time with his knee injury. While he’s not a burner and isn’t rated particularly well defensively, he still edges out both of those players in fWAR. Dillon Dingler, with superior defense at the catcher position, is the only player higher than Jac there. Perhaps most importantly for today’s question, though, only two players in the AL have hit more jacks than Jac in the month of June: Nick Kurtz and Byron Buxton.

It’s a good time to jump on the Jac Wagon, is what I’m saying.

But as June wraps up, we all begin to turn our thoughts to the upcoming All-Star festivities. Bobby seems primed to finally get his first start at Shortstop in the Midsummer Classic. It’s not entirely clear which, if any other Royals, might join him on the roster. Jac seems like a possibility, but you don’t actually have to be an All-Star to be invited to participate in the Home Run Derby.

Last year’s derby featured Oneil Cruz, despite the fact that he was not an All-Star. It wasn’t evenly split among AL and NL, with 5 AL players participating to 3 NL. The AL participants were first, fourth, fifth, eighth, and fifteenth on the home run leaderboard for their league. The NL players were sixth, seventeenth, and twenty-second. In fact, the only real criterion for participating is that people have to want to see you smack dingers, and who do you want to watch hit dingers right now more than Jac Caglianone?

To that end, I’ll make a bit of a clarification about the term “deserves” in the following poll. Since there are no criteria, use your own! Maybe you think Jac doesn’t deserve it because he’s barely in the top 25 in the AL for home runs. Or maybe you think he does deserve it because you’re a Royals fan. The point is, vote your heart, but vote. And, of course, don’t forget to vote Jac, Bobby, and the rest of the Royals to the All-Star Game!

Five weeks ago, the Giants took 2 out of 3 from these Athletics and were a bad, but not completely embarrassing 20-27. That series ended with a 10-1 blowout that looked so good that all the Giants seemed to get healthy from it. Adrian Houser even got the win thanks to 6 innings of 1-run ball. Since then, the Giants have gone 11-19, Adrian Houser has been demoted to the bullpen, and even the vestiges of the notion that this season might wind up being at least a little entertaining have long since withered away. The Athletics are not a good baseball team (they have the same -54 run differential), but they are a far cry from whatever the Giants are supposed to be.

So, it should be an interesting series at Oracle Park this week! The Giants return home after a 40% decent road trip while the Athletics work their way through a strange part of their schedule. Technically, they’ve just concluded a 13-game homestand, and with these 3 in San Francisco, even though they’re in West Sacramento now, that’s still basically an extension of the homestand. But 6 of these games were technically in Summerlin, Nevada as a special showcase for their future home crowd. They went 4-2 during this stretch, and just 3-4 upon returning to Sutter Health Park.

Anyway, the A’s Shea Langeliers leads all American League catchers in All-Star voting (1,414,697 in the first batch of ballots, +577,408 over Alejandro Kirk) while first baseman Nick Kurtz is 4th in the AL first base vote race, trailing Munetaka Murakami for 3rd by ~150,000 votes. Kurtz has followed up his Rookie of the Year 2025 with another stellar season — 19 home runs in 353 PA with a triple slash of .290/.439/.556. He is the sixth-most valuable player according to FanGraphs’ fWAR (3.5). Langeliers is 28th (2.4 fWAR) on a .271/.333/.521 line — he also has 19 home runs (321 PA). He trails in overall value at the catching position behind Detroit’s Dillon Dingler (3.6 fWAR) and Adley Rutschman (2.3), but there he is leading the pack for the moment. They are the primary engine of the A’s lineup, too, as West Sac is just 10th in runs scored (364) and 7th in wRC+ (105). They’re also one of the worst defenses in the sport (-25.1 Defensive Runs Above Average — 28th in MLB).

Thanks to their ballpark — well, at least in part — the Athletics’ pitching is actually worse than the Giants. Their team ERA of 5.04 trails only Colorado in all of MLB. Their +3.1 fWAR is just half a win worse than the Giants’ pitching value (3.6 — 25th). But the Athletics actually get much better away from their home park(s). Their team road ERA of 3.67 is fourth-best in MLB (though, their 4.18 xFIP is only 14th). They also have a 20-17 road record, which is currently the second-best road record in MLB behind only the Yankees. The Giants are 14-20 at home.

How relieved is John Fisher right now? The Giants are villains, his cursed stadium project is now proceeding apace, and there’s probably going to be a lockout that “right-sizes” labor costs going forward. The hatred towards him will probably fade and who cares about Oakland and those fans? This is the bet the Giants are making, that time plus inertia will carry them through any controversy. Most sports team owners seem to have settled into an adversarial relationship with their fans, realizing that they can treat them like paypigs and come away richer and entirely unscathed. Such is the story of the 21st century and wealthy, right?

But while the Giants and Athletics have owners who are no different from the rest of the world, it’s rare that you get to see former “crosstown” rivals where the fan bases would teeter-totter the moral high ground get shoved together when both franchises are on the same moral plain. It’s a series that far fewer people have cared about than ever before, even if these teams have quickly become a mirror for each other.

Who: San Francisco Giants (31-46) vs. Athletics (38-40)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Tuesday & Wednesday at 6:45pm PT, Thursday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None

Projected starters
Tuesday: Robbie Ray (LHP 5-6, 4.07 ERA) vs. Aaron Civale (RHP 5-3, 4.91 ERA)
Wednesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 1-7, 6.04 ERA) vs. Gage Jump (LHP 3-1, 2.37 ERA)
Thursday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.15 ERA) vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP 3-7, 5.55 ERA)

Players to watch

Athletics

Jacob Wilson: The shortstop dislocated his shoulder and was on the IL before the last series, and up to that point he’d been having “the sophomore slump,” following his 2025 rookie season (where he placed 2nd behind teammate Nick Kurtz) of .311/.355/.444 with .292/.311/.398 through his first 39 games of 2026 (168 PA). Since being activated on June 12th, he’s just 8-for-35 with a homer, 2 doubles and 4 walks and 4 strikeouts (.229/.308/.371), but in the just concluded 4-game series against the Angels, he was 4-for-16 with that homer, one of those doubles, and 2 walks and 2 strikeouts (.250/.333/.500). He also had this cool slide to avoid a tag at home plate:

Jeff McNeil: The Mets’ attempt to shakeup their roster blew up in their faces this season, but it’s not like David Stearns didn’t have some idea of what he was doing. The 34-year old McNeil was clearly on the downside of his career, but he has fallen waaaaay off he cliff, going from a better than league average hitter for his career to nearly 30% below the average. He has, historically, tormented the Giants, but in that series at Sutter Health Park, he was just 2-for-8 with a double and pair of RBI. And since that series, over hist last 96 PA, he’s hitting just .172/.250/.253. But! He’s a career .345/.409/.536 hitter at Oracle Park.

Gage Jump: The A’s Competitive Balance Round B pick of the 2024 draft is already up in the majors and looks like a real stud. He’s the team’s #3 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and #38 in the entire sport. It feels like he should be higher? A lefty starter who averages 96 mph with his four seamer and has swing and miss breaking pitches on top of a changeup? Nasty, nasty, nasty. Rafael Devers leads the starting lineup in pitches seen with 95+ mph velocity, experiencing that pitch 26.5% of the time. He’s hitting .231 against that sort of velocity. Luis Arraez is second among the starters at 24.1%, but he’s hitting .431. That they’re both lefties and Gage is a lefty could be a pretty compelling reason why this will be a tough matchup.

Giants

Tyler Mahle: Adrian Houser to the bullpen is what gets Mahle a start coming back from the IL. The Giants need to try to salvage his value because there is a high probability that he is tradeable if he bounces back. He made one appearance for the River Cats, walking 5 while striking out 3 and allowing a run. Okay, so, yeah, maybe it’s unlikely he bounces back.

Rafael Devers: Wednesday’s game against Gage Jump seems like a great time to sit Devers, especially after his emotional outburst on Sunday, but going back to the Cubs series at Wrigley Field (14 games, 62 PA), he’s been working hard to make me eat some crow after writing about how he’s unlikely to hit much better this season: .231/.355/.538 (.893 OPS), 4 homers, 4 doubles, 10 walks, 16 strikeouts.

Willy Adames: That series at Sutter Health Park marked Adames’s turnaround. He had a .592 OPS going into the series and since then (32 games, 137 PA), he’s slashing .230/.285/.532 (.816). Technically, a .285 on base percentage is bad. A 3:1 strikeouts to walk ratio is also bad. That the streak is really only a 20 game segment, as his last 12 games (49 PA) is a bad line of .083/.102/.208. He has just 1 walk and 16 strikeouts. He’sjust 4-for-his-last-48. A total disaster.

Prediction time

The Giants will do something really dumb. An A will hit a home run.

Maikel Garcia has been banged up for the last month, and today the Royals finally placed him on the 10-day Injured List with a left hand muscle strain. Before that, Garcia had been dealing with a hamstring strain earlier this month. Infielder Josh Rojas was recalled from Triple-A Omaha.

Garcia told reporters he had been dealing with hand soreness since a series against the Cardinals in mid-May. He exited a game last Tuesday in Washington when he reaggravated the injury, and and was out until Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. He was 0-for-5 that day, but went 1-for-4 last night against the Rays. Garcia has appeared in 69 games this year, and is hitting .261/.320/.373 with three home runs, good for 1.6 rWAR.

Rojas is an eight-year MLB veteran, who has hit .241/.317/.352 in his career with the Diamondbacks, Mariners, and White Sox. He was up briefly for the Royals earlier this year, appearing in two games and going 1-for-5. The left-handed hitter is capable of playing all over the field, and was hitting .251/.313/.445 with eight home runs in 58 games for Omaha.

The Royals are also without shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who is nursing a knee injury but has not yet been placed on the Injured List. That leaves them with Rojas, Isaac Collins, Nick Loftin, Michael Massey, and Tyler Tolbert as the only healthy infielders on the roster, in addition to first baseman Jac Caglianone. Witt is wearing a brace on his knee, but took grounders yesterday and hit for the first time since injuring it on Thursday.

The Cincinnati Reds formally activated Elly De La Cruz from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday morning ahead of the team’s second game against the Milwaukee Brewers of this series. In doing so, the Reds add back their perennial All Star and offensive anchor, hopefully helping hoist a lineup back into respecability after it has limped through the three weeks without him.

In doing so, though, the Reds did not option to AAA the guy who’d been called up to replace him.

Cincinnati opted to keep infielder Edwin Arroyo on the club, instead optioning the struggling Will Benson to Louisville as the other end of the transaction. For once, it finally seems the Reds chose to go with the ‘keep the 26 best players you have on the roster’ method to a roster move than they did ‘make sure guys we want for the future get as many PA as they possibly can’ route they’ve taken so many times before.

With Elly back, it certainly doesn’t look as if the Reds have a clear path to play Arroyo a lot. Elly will take shortstop back, Matt McLain – who posted an .807 OPS in the time Elly was sidelined – will slide back over to his customary 2B. Edwin can play some 3B, in theory, but that’s where Eugenio Suarez and Sal Stewart get most of the reps, while Stewart will have company at 1B with Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe in the mix, too.

If anything, it’s reflection of just how sturdy the team’s outfield is a the moment. Blake Dunn has looked perfectly cromulent in CF, actually hitting RHP better than LHP and providing increased speed and defense at the position over what they’d had earlier in the year. Noelvi Marte has hit .267/.313/.556 (.868 OPS) since being recalled as the team’s primary RF, while JJ Bleday’s breakout season is taking place in LF. Steer, who’ll also see time at 2B, has therefore seen his time as an outfielder dwindle since Marte’s return, while Benson had basically been benched altogether.

What Arroyo does bring to the table for manager Terry Francona is pretty elite defense, should the Reds need it late in the game at any point on the diamond, as well as the ability to hit from both sides of the plate late in games. Benson did not provide either of those things. I also get the impression that Tito would be willing to send Arroyo up there to bunt in a big spot, something that a) I don’t get the feeling he’d do with Benson and b) something that I acknowledge I hope won’t happen at all at any point.

It also begs the question – will the Reds ease Elly back into playing shortstop on a regular basis to help monitor his hamstring issue? Might we see him as the team’s DH a bit more often? If that’s the case, then prioritizing defense up the middle would see Arroyo/McLain take SS/2B as theirs on an often enough basis to make keeping their prized young infield prospect on the roster instead of down at AAA getting 4-5 PA every single day.

We’ll find out in the coming weeks. What’s most important, though, is that the Reds now have their best player back for a crucial stretch of baseball.

TODAY’S GAME: The Astros and Blue Jays will play the 2nd game of this 3-game set this afternoon at Rogers Centre.

RHP Peter Lambert (6-4) will start for the Astros as he takes on Jays RHP Shane Bieber, who is making is 1st start of the season.

Today is Lambert’s 1st career start and 2nd app. vs. TOR (other app. was in relief at Rogers Centre-3.0 IP, 0 R, 4/12/24).

RIDING THE LAMBO: Today’s Astros starter RHP Peter Lambert will make his 12th start/app. of the season.

He has pitched well as of late, posting a 4-0 record in his last 5 starts with a 2.83 ERA (9ER/28.2IP).

In his most recent start on June 17 vs. DET, he allowed 1 run on just 2 hits in 7.0 innings of work to earn the win in a 4-2 Astros victory (0 BB, 5 SO).

Lambert’s 4 wins since May 24 are tied for tops in the Majors in that span.

Lambert pitched last year for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in the NPB, posting a 3.98 ERA (55ER/124.1IP) with 111 strikeouts in 23 appearances in Japan.

He began this season at Triple A Sugar Land (1.84 ERA in three appearances) before being called up April 17.

ROAD TRIPPIN: Today is the 2nd game of a 7-game road trip for the Astros, during which they will visit TOR (3G) and DET (4G), respectively.

Road Success: The Astros are 10-7 in their last 3 road trips combined…they have have posted a 16-13 record on the road since going 1-9 on their 1st road trip of the 2026 season.

Road Raking: The Astros are T-1st in the AL in road batting avg. at .251…they also rank 2nd in road SLG (.414) and OPS (.740) and 3rd in road HR (52) and OBP (.325).

ASTROS-BLUE JAYS: The Astros were 4-2 vs. TOR in 2025 (3-0 at home, 1-2 at TOR).

HOU pitched very well vs. TOR last season, posting a 1.86 ERA (11ER/53.1IP) vs. them in 6 games while allowing just 31 hits in 53.1 IP for a .169 opponent batting avg.

Jays hitters were just 32×189 vs. HOU pitching overall last season.

Recent Success: Including last night’s game, the Astros have won 6 of 9 and 8 of their last 12 vs. TOR.

LAST NIGHT’S RECAP: The Astros were topped by the Blue Jays in last night’s series opener, 4-2.

RHP Hunter Brown started the game, but had no decision (3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 SO).

Jeremy Pena (1×2, R), Isaac Paredes (1×3, RBI) and Jose Altuve (1×3, RBI) contributed offensively.

An RBI-single by Jose Altuve in the 6th inning tied the game at 2-2, before TOR added single runs in the 7th and 8th innings to pull ahead.

Astros hitters were limited to just 5 singles by Blue Jays hurlers.

CLOSE CALLS: The Astros are now 14-10 in two-run games and 8-4 in one-run games.

THE SLOW TURNAROUND: Over the last month (May 21-June 22), the Astros are 17-12 (.586), which is T-2nd-best in the AL in that span.

RECENT STROS: The Astros have won 4 of 6 and 6 of their last 10 games.

HISTORIC HOMERS: Per Elias, Yordan Alvarez’ 25 HR are tied for the 2nd-most in franchise history through the club’s 1st 80 games.

The record for HR through the club’s 1st 81 games is 27, set by Lance Berkman in 2002.

Most HR thru 80 Team Games
26 – J. Bagwell, 1994 & 1999
25 – Y. Alvarez, 2026
25 – L. Berkman, 2002

Most HR thru 81 Team Games
27 – L. Berkman, 2002
26 – J. Bagwell, 1994 & 1999

ALL-STAR VOTING: Yordan Alvarez leads all AL DH’s in All-Star voting, per MLB’s update yesterday.

His 1,974,459 votes rank 2nd in the AL and 3rd overall in the Majors.

ROCKIN AT ROGERS: In his last 15 games at Rogers Centre, Yordan Alvarez has 7 HR and 16 RBI and is hitting .370 (19×50) in that span with an .860 SLG and a 1.362 OPS.

PEN PALS: Since May 15, the Astros bullpen has the best ERA in the AL with a 2.82 clip (39R/124.2IP). The Astros are 20-15 since May 15.

OKERT’S 0’S: LHP Steven Okert has not allowed a run in his last 15.0 innings, which is the longest scoreless streak by an Astros hurler this season.

His streak, which spans 12 apps., is the longest cons. inning scoreless streak since RHP AJ Blubaugh recorded 22.1 cons. scoreless innings from Aug. 23, 2025-March 26, 2026.

In Okert’s current streak, which began on May 23 at CHC, he has allowed just 4 hits in those 15.0 innings pitched.

HADERADE: In his 8 appearances since coming of the IL on June 3, opponents are just 2×26 off LHP Josh Hader.

Hader has posted a 1.13 ERA (1ER/8IP) and is 5-for-5 in save opportunities (.077 opp. avg., .038 WHIP).

ON THE DEFENSIVE: The Astros have the best fielding pct. in the AL at .989 and are tied with the A’s for the fewest errors committed with 30.

1B Christian Walker has led the way, as he has not committed an error in his 77 games played at 1B.

Dating back to last season, Walker has not made an error in his last 99 games at 1B (last error was August 23 at BAL).

POSITIVE IMPACT: Since SS Jeremy Peña returned to the lineup on May 18, the Astros have gone 18-14, while Peña has hit .297 (35×118) with 5 doubles, 6 homers and 18 RBI in 32 games.

TAPPING FOR SUCCESS: Astros batters have won an MLB-best 55 ABS challenges and lead the Majors in challenge success rate (60%).

Isaac Paredes (9-for-9) has the most successful challenges in the Majors without losing one.

Jose Altuve has been successful on 14-of-19 challenges (74%), ranking 2nd in the Majors in successful challenges.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Tuesday, June 23, 3:07 p.m. CT

Location: Rodgers Centre, Toronto, ON

TV: Space City Home Network

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

Let’s start this off with some good news: If the Braves play straight-up mediocre .500 baseball from this point forward, they should still have enough wins to get them back into the Postseason. The fantastic level of form that they reached during late-March and throughout April and most of May has essentially ensured that the Braves have a nice little “nest-egg” of sorts to play with as far as their Postseason chances go.

PECOTA still has the Braves at a 74 percent chance of winning the NL East and a 98 percent chance of making the Postseason in some form. FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds also paints a rosy picture by giving them an 80 percent chance of winning the division and a 97 percent chance of making the Postseason. In the grand scheme of things, it’s fine. It may be “Blackheart” Lio Rush’s version of “fine” but it’s fine nonetheless.

With that being said, it’s hard not to feel a bit alarmed by what we’ve seen from the Braves since mid-May. There were concerns about the starting rotation heading into this season and while the rotation did a fantastic job early on in order to dispel most of those concerns, they’ve finally started to rear their ugly head and it’s been pretty concerning! Since May 18, Atlanta’s rotation has collectively produced an ERA of 5.20 (ERA- 125) and a FIP of 4.64 (113 FIP-). Both of those numbers are near the bottom of Major League Baseball and a lot of that has to do with the fact that outside of former White Sox hurlers Chris Sale and Martín Pérez, the rest of the rotation has been struggling mightily.

Grant Holmes looked better on Monday night but he still has trouble getting through two turns on the lineup on any given night, much less getting any deeper than that. Spencer Strider was pretty inconsistent while he was healthy and now he’s out for the foreseeable future and it doesn’t help that JR Ritchie has essentially been baptized by fire as Strider’s replacement. Bryce Elder’s magical ride has come to a screeching halt and his most recent start where he got blown up for eight runs in a single inning of six innings of work represented the clear nadir for both Elder and this rotation at the moment.

Sale (60 ERA-, 42 FIP-) and Pérez (81 ERA-, 80 FIP-) are the only regulars who have an ERA- and FIP- below the league average of 100 since May 18 — everybody else is far over. Grant Holmes is the “best” of the bunch with an ERA- of 116 and a FIP- of 158. As bad as Elder has been (169 ERA-, 121 FIP-), Strider was actually a little worse with an equivalent ERA- of 169 and a worse FIP- of 157. JR Ritchie has tried his best but so far that’s resulted in an ERA- of 240 and a FIP- of 187.

The bullpen has essentially been carrying the pitching staff since mid-May, as they are currently leading baseball in ERA- since May 18 (65) and are top-five in FIP- at 85. No matter who they’ve called upon in the bullpen (whether it’s been high-leverage guys like Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez or Dylan Lee or the rest of the relievers like Dylan Dodd, Reynaldo López, Tyler Kinley, Didier Fuentes and even Carlos Carrasco being called upon to eat innings), everybody’s known their role and gotten the job done while the rotation has largely struggled. Their performance has been one of the only things keeping this current downturn in form from being an actual mid-season collapse.

As a matter of fact, the bullpen may be the one thing holding this entire team together at the moment because the offense has absolutely cratered for about a month or so. From Opening Day until May 17, the Braves as a team hit .265/.328/.444 with a wOBA of .337 and a wRC+ of 113 with the team wRC+ being second in all of baseball only behind the Dodgers. Ever since May 18, however, things have changed drastically. Atlanta has been hitting .232/.296/.377 at the plate with a wOBA of .306 and a team wRC+ of 87. Ever since mid-May, Atlanta has essentially been rolling out the third-worst offense in all of baseball with only the Padres and the Guardians being worse.

Now, a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that Drake Baldwin was missing for quite some time during that span and also Ronald Acuña Jr. has also been sitting on the sidelines for long stretches as well. It also didn’t help that during that period when both Baldwin and Sean Murphy were gone, Atlanta actively decided to play throwback National League baseball where they were effectively using the catcher as the pitchers’ spot in the lineup.

Bless Sandy León and Austin Wynns for trying but León putting up a wRC+ of -84 in 37 plate appearances is truly astonishing and it was also painful to see Wynns add to that with a -73 wRC+ over 14 additional plate appearances. It’s clear with the addition of Joey Bart that the Braves have done a complete 180 in what they value in backup catchers since clearly León’s defense and experience behind the plate was not enough to overcome the overall black hole of plate production that he was delivering during his time out there.

Also, Ha-Seong Kim’s plate performance has been shocking and not in a good way. Any time where the Braves put out León and Kim at the same time, there were going to be two hitters in the lineup where it would’ve been a shock to see them get a hit. It’s something you just can’t have and it’s why the light-hitting Jorge Mateo has been getting plenty of opportunities and why Atlanta has also been desperate to keep Mauricio Dubón in the lineup no matter where he plays.

Things got to the point where Matt Olson played right field at the tail end of a game last week because of the domino effect of substitutions that resulted in Walt Weiss making sure that Kim didn’t have to take an at-bat while the field shuffling was going on. He’s got to get it going soon but it’s also one of those cases where it’s tough to keep giving him plate appearances while he’s this terrible at the plate.

Atlanta has been getting positive contributions from Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr. (when healthy), Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubón but it’s clear that they can’t carry the team when there are multiple hitters carrying a negative wRC+. Austin Riley’s inability to get going has also been frustrating to observe as well. Guys like Mike Yastrzemski, Eli White, the aforementioned Mateo and Dominic Smith are trying their best but it’s also clear that they are in a position where they need to perform out of their shoes in order to keep the offense afloat on a nightly basis in recent times.

I’ve regularly had Alex Anthopoulos’s preseason opinion on this team running through my mind for most of this season. He was right when he said that if this team was going to bounce back, the offense would need to return to good form after spending the better part of two years wandering in the wilderness. We saw that play out with the scalding-hot start that this team got off to to begin the season. Now we’re seeing the offense’s fortunes coincide with the team’s fortunes and it’s frustrating to see.

With all of that being said, I do have real hope that Atlanta’s offense will get things together. While watching them struggle lately has been truly frustrating, it’s not a hopeless situation. On the other hand, the starting rotation needs help and they need it badly. Folks have been screaming about the need to add to this rotation since this past offseason and now it has become glaringly clear what needs to be addressed at the deadline. I’ve already stated my opinion on whether or not the Brave should go after Tarik Skubal if the opportunity presents itself but even if they don’t swing for the fences in that regard, it’s clear that Atlanta should be trying to figure out a way to improve this rotation between now and the deadline.

Whether that’s simply bringing up Hurston Waldrep or going after some arms from teams that are planning on selling at the deadline (and there will be a handful), if the Braves are going to be serious about confirming their Postseason spot and also hopefully doing some damage when they get there, the rotation has to be improved. The bullpen is carrying the load for the pitching staff and the lineup has shown that they can make it happen at the plate for a decently-long stretch. On paper, the rotation has been the weak spot for the longest time and now they’ve mostly come crashing back down to earth after spending the early portion of this season in glorious orbit.

It’s clear that the Braves aren’t going to simply walk away with the division now that the Phillies are showing some real signs of being serious in recent weeks. The Braves still have a fairly nice lead in the division and as long as they don’t truly collapse then the Postseason is well within their grasp. This is a resilient bunch so I’d imagine that they will fight through this rough patch and get back to something close to what we saw from them earlier this season.

Still, it’s becoming very clear that the team won’t be able to simply put it into cruise control down the stretch. There are some real concerns with this team at the moment and hopefully we’ll see them get addressed at some point soon. We’ll see what happens, though.

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is heating up and profiles well for continued success against Houston Astros starter Peter Lambert, making Over 1.5 total bases for Vladdy my favorite play tonight.

Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Tuesday, June 23 matchup.

Astros vs Blue Jays predictions

Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Peter Lambert. 

The Houston Astros starter primarily throws a fastball/sinker/slider combination, which is a pitch mix that Vladdy has handled well this season, with a .314 batting average and a .331 BABIP.

Lambert has also allowed solid contact at a 7.5% rate, which is 1.6% above league average.

Guerrero Jr. is barreling the baseball more efficiently lately, too, which has seen an uptick in production over the last two weeks where he owns a .409 average and a .591 SLG.

Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has eclipsed this number in four of his last five games with a .526 SLG over this stretch, showing serious signs of a turnaround, which gives me confidence in his market.

I’d bet Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases down to +100. 

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA, and owns a 137 WRC+ over his last 20 at-bats.

Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

George Springer is turning a corner, too, sporting a .351 average and 1.090 OPS over his last 10 games, recording a hit in eight of those outings. Additionally, he’s historically hit well against Lambert‘s pitch mix. 

I’ll also add Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits. He owns a .375 average against Lambert's pitches since June 1, while recording at least one hit in 13 of 18 games this month.

Astros vs Blue Jays SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• George Springer Over 0.5 hits
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits

Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)

Okamoto profiles well against Lambert, who gives up a lot of solid contact, while ranking in the 48th percentile in hard-hit rate.

This all plays into Okamoto’s strengths, as he barrels the ball as well as anyone on the Jays roster and leads the team with 17 home runs while owning a .553 SLG and a 58.1% hard-hit rate against Lambert's pitch mix.

Additionally, Lambert has surrendered six home runs over his last seven-outings.

Despite the good matchup for Okamoto, the home run market is volatile, so I’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

Astros vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Houston +112 | Toronto -132
• Run line: Houston +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Astros vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info

Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Astros vs Blue Jays weather

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The Dodgers got about as good of a pitching game as they could have hoped for in the series opener against the Minnesota Twins. Eric Lauer followed an opener on Monday, in part to avoid having him face Byron Buxton three times. Buxton proved why by hitting his 25th home run of the season in the first inning against said opener, Will Klein.

Lauer entered a 1-1 game in the second inning and got all the way through the seventh with no runs and no hits on his ledger, and a 2-1 lead.

The only other time a Los Angeles Dodgers reliever pitched at least six innings without allowing a hit was Dave Stewart on August 9, 1982, pitching the final six frames of a 13-inning win over the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium.

That Stewart performance was part of a chaotic pennant race for the Dodgers, who trailed the Atlanta Braves by 10 games as late as July 28. The Stewart game was the seventh straight win that brought them to within a half-game of Atlanta. The Dodgers would claim first place the next day, only 13 days after that 10-game deficit.

Six other Brooklyn Dodgers pitchers logged at least six hitless innings in relief:

• Ed Reulbach, August 13, 1913 vs. Pirates
• Elmer Brown, September 26, 1913 vs. Giants
• Doug McWeeny, May 6, 1926 at Cardinals
• Jack Banta, June 24, 1949 at Pirates (6 2/3 innings)
• Carl Erskine, September 5, 1949 vs. Braves (7 innings)
• Bob Milliken, September 9, 1953 at Reds (8 1/3 innings)

The longest of these hitless relief outings was by Bob Milliken in 1953. He took over for rookie Johnny Podres with two outs in the first innings — looked like an injury of some sort, as Podres didn’t pitch again for 13 days — then finished out the game by recording the final 25 outs.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Twins
• Ballpark: Target Field, Minneapolis
• Time: 4:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, TBS (out of market)
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Count me shocked that the Mariners were able to win one of their games against that trio of lefty starters the Red Sox rolled out last weekend. That win on Sunday wrapped up a 3-3 homestand and pushed the team another game ahead of their division rivals. Now the team embarks on a midwest road trip through Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

With a ton of young talent matriculating into the big leagues and a starting rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, the Pirates looked poised to break out of their long rebuilding cycle this year. They actually spent money on a few free agents in the offseason and traded for some more talent to bolster the lineup. They were rewarded with a quick start to the season, running a 16-11 record through April 25. They’ve fallen back towards .500 since then, though they’re still in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt. 

The Pirates signed Ryan O’Hearn to the largest free agent contract for a position player in franchise history this offseason. That’s pretty incredible from an organizational standpoint and that it ended up being O’Hearn who set that record. To his credit, O’Hearn has been a solid first baseman and corner outfielder for the past three years and he’s been just as good for the Pirates this season, rocking a 115 wRC+. They also traded for Brandon Lowe and that has worked out wonderfully; he’s leading the team in home runs with a 126 wRC+. Among the holdovers from last year, Bryan Reynolds has bounced back from a dismal season in 2025 to lead the team with a 145 wRC+. Unfortunately for the Pirates, young phenom Konnor Griffin has been sidelined with a forearm injury for the past month.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Mitch Keller has been a solid, if uninspiring mid-rotation starter for the last five years. He’s also been incredibly consistent in that time; his FIP hasn’t risen above 4.08 and hasn’t fallen below 3.80. Despite that consistency, his peripherals look the worst they’ve been since 2021; his strikeout rate has fallen to 18.4% and his walk rate has jumped up to 8.8%. Only some good home run luck has allowed him to keep his FIP inside that range mentioned above. He’s always been a tinkerer, and this year, he’s reintroduced a cutter to his repertoire. The real issue is that his other two fastballs have been crushed by opposing batters and the rest of his secondary pitches haven’t been able to make up the difference.

Between Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin, and a host of other top prospects on the Pirates roster, it’s been easy to overlook Braxton Ashcraft. He was a top prospect in his own right and had a strong debut season last year, compiling a 2.71 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 18 relief appearances and eight starts. The Pirates were pretty cautious with his workload last year but have given him a full-time role in the starting rotation this year and he’s run with the opportunity. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls that more than make up for the lack of a strong fastball. Nearly half of his pitch mix is made up of those breaking balls, and their quality is such that he doesn’t really need an offspeed pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay. He can just spin a curveball or bury a slider to a lefty and generate enough swing and miss to thrive.

Among the non-Skenes pitching prospects in Pittsburgh’s pipeline, Bubba Chandler had the most hype. And while Ashcraft is having the type of season we expected from Chandler, Chandler probably has the higher ceiling once he fully develops. A lack of command is the biggest area he needs to address — an issue that’s led to a 13.1% walk rate this year. His fastball is fantastic with velocity and carry at the top of the zone. His tremendous arm speed helps his changeup really play up, though he’s still working on developing his trio of breaking balls. Once he figures out his command and finds a bit more consistency, he’ll be a top of the rotation arm for the Pirates. Until then, he’s a work-in-progress.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers managed to climb back into a tie with the Athletics after winning their weekend series against the Padres and winning the first game of a series against the Marlins yesterday night. For their part, the Athletics wound up splitting their four-game series against the Angels last weekend and will start a three-game set against the Giants tonight. The Astros are also lurking at 3.5 games back in the division; they won their series against the Guardians over the weekend but dropped the first game of their series against the Blue Jays yesterday.