To be fair, yesterday’s defeat wasn’t too bad, as these things go. It was a one-run loss on the road, to a team ahead of us in the standings, and was entirely due to the absence of any clutch hits – not something over which it’s generally believed a team has much control. As noted in the recap comments, the “Deserve to Win” was skewed massively in favor of the Diamondbacks. It was certainly better than getting thumped at home by the Twins. But moral victories only go so far, and Arizona find themselves at risk of falling below the .500 mark, for the first time in over a month.
The last time the D-backs dipped under an even record was in mid-May. Victory on May 17 in Coors Field pulled them up to 22-23, and kick-started a five-game winning streak for the team. Modest, but Arizona hasn’t had one any longer than that since August 2024. Since then, the team has dipped to .500 on a couple of occasions, before and during the series in Cincinnati. However, the Diamondbacks won on both occasions, to avoid slipping to a losing record. The Cardinals promise to be a tougher opponent, but the team does have their ace, Eduardo Rodriguez, going this afternoon.
The turnaround in E-Rod is remarkable. Over the four seasons combined previous to this one, he made 82 starts, and was worth a total of four bWAR. The great bulk of that (3,2) came in 2023. But he’s already at 2.8 bWAR, and we’re not even quite at the half-way mark in 2026. I am a little bit nervous, since he seems afflicted by the K-phobia which has impacted many of our pitchers (most notably Merrill Kelly). Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is a career low 6.6 per nine innings, and he’s benefiting from a .256 BABIP, also a career low. That’s despite a 27% line-drive rate, exactly in line with his figure each of the previous three seasons. Fingers crossed, because given our rotation, the last thing we need is regression.
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