After a historic World Series, the MLB offseason is underway, and we're taking you through the potential markets for some of the biggest stars. So far, we discussed the market and potential landing spots for Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Edwin Diaz, Kyle Tucker,and Bo Bichette, and Matthew Pouliot also ranked every free agent on the market this offseason.
Today, I'm going to continue with the curious case of Dylan Cease. After the 2022 season, it seemed like Dylan Cease had arrived as a perennial ace. He finished second in AL Cy Young voting that season and showed tremendous strikeout upside and command growth. However, he has been unable to match that success and continues to vascillate between good years and bad years. They say beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so we're likely headed into an offseason where some teams view Cease as a potential ace and others will have little interest in signing him for anything close to the deal he's likely set to command.
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Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.
D.J. Short
▶ Cease in Review
2025 was an odd-numbered year, so I guess we should have assumed that Cease was going to disappoint. While that's mostly in jest, Cease's best years have indeed come in 2022 and 2024, while he has struggled in 2023 and 2025.
This past season, he posted a 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 215/71 K/BB ratio. He also had a 1.13 HR/9, which was his highest since 2019, and an inflated .320 BABIP. Everybody will point out that the underlying metrics, like his 3.58 SIERA and 15.6% swinging strike rate (SwStr%), suggest that Cease was pitching better than his surface-level stats, and while that's partially true, there were also real issues that led to his struggles.
For starters, he posted just a 45.4% zone rate on his four-seam fastball. That was the 8th percentile in baseball among starting pitchers. His overall strike rate on his four-seam fastball was slightly better, at the 23rd percentile, but you can't be an effective pitcher if you aren't throwing strikes with your fastball. For comparison's sake, Cease was 25th percentile in zone rate and 33rd percentile in strike rate on his four-seam fastball in 2024, so even though these issues have always been present, they were more pronounced this past season. As a result, Cease posted just a 19% Early Called Strike rate (called strikes in 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1 counts), which was well below the 21.4% league average for starting pitchers, and was not working from a position of strength often enough.
Cease has tried to combat this by adding different types of fastballs, but his prior experiments with a cutter have failed, and the sinker he added this season was used only 5% of the time and had a 4.57 PLV grade, which is below the league average for starting pitchers (4.90). His sinker had just a 12th percentile zone rate and a 25th percentile strike rate, so it had the same struggles in terms of command as his four-seam fastball, but with far less swing and miss.
As a result, Cease remains essentially a two-pitch pitcher. In 2025, he threw his four-seamer and slider a combined 82% of the time. He mixed in the odd curveball, sweeper, and sinker, but those were used sparingly. His curve was almost strictly a weapon for lefties and posted a slightly below-average swinging strike rate while also allowing a .321 batting average and a 15.8% barrel rate. He also only used it 25% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties, so it wasn't really a swing-and-miss pitch for him either.
The sweeper was a pitch he threw almost exclusively to righties, but he used it only 6% of the time against them this season. It, like the curve, also had a below-average swinging strike rate; however, it didn't allow much hard contact and had success in two-strike counts when Cease decided to use it. The issue is that, surprisingly, Cease's sweeper is actually in the zone too often, which is part of the reason it has poor whiff rates but good called strike rates.
Yet, one thing we can say about Cease is that he's durable. He has thrown 884 innings over the last five years and and not dipped below 165.2 innings in any full MLB season. That's incredibly rare in this age of baseball. That kind of durability and consistency will give him even more value on the market.
At the end of the day, Cease remains the same pitcher he's been for years. He's essentially a two-pitch pitcher with poor command of his four-seam fastball, which leads to strong strikeout rates and poor walk rates. 2024 was an example of what can happen when things break right for Cease, and 2025 was an example of how things turn out when things don't go his way. The team that chooses to pony up a big contract for him will have enough confidence in itself and its plan to get the 2024 version more regularly.
▶ Market Outlook
The starting pitcher free agent market is not a robust one, but there are some intriguing names at the top. Cease and Framber Valdez figure to attract the biggest contracts this offseason. However, if Shota Imanaga declines the Cubs' qualifying offer, then he would join them among the top arms on the market. Cease's teammate, Michael King, also possesses top-of-the-rotation upside but has only one year as an MLB starter and battled injuries this season, which could keep his cost down. Ranger Suarez is another talented pitcher, but lacks the upside of Cease and Framber, while Lucas Giolito is coming off a bounce-back season with the Red Sox, but has a long list of injuries behind him.
The rest of the market is filled with pitchers who are more likely to be viewed as back-of-the-rotation starters and wouldn't impact Cease's free agent market.
As a result, Cease has a strong chance to earn the biggest contract this offseason. He will be 30 years old next season, so it's unlikely that a team would give him more than six or seven years, but he should make at least $25 million per season, considering Max Fried signed for just over $27 million per year last season. Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell were the only three pitchers to sign for over $25 million per season AAV last year, and Cease has not proven to be a Cy Young caliber starter yet (apart from the 2022 season), so it would be unlikely that his contract pushes into the $30 million AAV range.
▶ Best Fits
Mets: We know the Mets need and want help at the top of the rotation, and we also know they believe they can fix any starter. They tried giving short-term deals to pitchers like Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, but those didn’t hit last year. Perhaps now they’ll feel enough pressure to dish out a longer-term contract to hopefully land an ace.
Red Sox: Red Sox president of baseball operations Craig Breslow already said this offseason that the team has no interest in adding a number four or five starter. If they are going to add a starter, it’s going to be somebody who can pitch alongside Garrett Crochet at the top of the rotation. Dylan Cease would certainly fit that bill; however, the Red Sox also seem primed to package surplus hitters for a starter like Joe Ryan, which would take them out of the Cease market.
Cubs: The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation starter with Shota Imanaga now a free agent. The team has already been linked to Dylan Cease this offseason, so we know there is interest.
Dodgers: The Dodgers are linked to everybody, right? It would seem like they don’t need a starting pitcher, but with Clayton Kershaw retired and plenty of their other starters continuing to show major health risks, they could certainly look to bring in somebody like Cease.
Orioles: A lack of front-line starting pitching has been a major problem for the Orioles in recent seasons. They should get Grayson Rodriguez back next year, but that likely isn’t enough. If they want to convince people that they’ll spend money in the free agent market, then Dylan Cease could be the best option.
Braves: The Braves could make a big splash in the offseason after missing the postseason this past year. Spencer Strider doesn’t seem to be the same pitcher following his second Tommy John surgery, and both Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach are coming off injuries. Beyond those three names, the rotation is a major question mark, so Cease could provide an emphatic answer to that question.
Contract Prediction
I think the Red Sox will make a trade for a starter, and the Dodgers will spend bigger money on a closer and outfielder, so that leaves the Mets and Cubs as the two likely biggest bidders for Cease. At the end of the day, I just haven't seen the Cubs spend big money to sign a free agent enough times, so I'm going to assume Steve Cohen will pony up and get himself a potential ace for his pitching lab.
Mets- Six years, $151 million
