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August was a profitable month on the dinger home front, but I have big plans for September. Home run props and MLB player props are getting smacked on the way out the door.

Ronel Blanco is somehow back in the MLB, and his HR/9 numbers are some of the worst in all of baseball, while Fernando Tatis Jr. will continue to beat up lefties as Nick Lodolo struggles post-injury. I wrap things up in Washington, where a Braves' bat has caught my eye.

These are my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Colson Montgomery	21.5%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	24.2%
Michael Harris	22%
💲Today's HR parlay	66.98x

Home run prediction: Colson Montgomery (21.5%)

This might not be the only White Sox batter on my home run card. Ronel Blanco is back in the Big Leagues, and among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, he owns the fifth-worst HR/9 at 2.7 and the 11th-worst HR/FB rate at 23.3%.

He also gave up 10 runs and three dingers in his last Triple-A start. He's in perfect dinger form.

I'm skipping Tristan Peters because of the pinch-hit risk and Munetaka Murakami because of his recent form, and taking Colson Montgomery at a price well above three dollars.

He sits one homer shy of 30 and went deep last night against the Houston bullpen, which is also missing four arms today. Montgomery's power numbers over the last two weeks rank behind only Peters, who has been on a mission.

Ultimately, getting a 30-homer guy in the best home run matchup on the board at this price is value town. I have the fair probability around 24-25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Chicago Sports Network

Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24.2%)

Nick Lodolo is a perfect dinger target today.

He's allowed six homers across 16+ innings since returning from the IL as he adjusts to a new curveball grip because of a recurring blister issue.

His 3.31 HR/9 in Aug. is the fifth-worst mark among starters for the month, and his 8.29 xERA might be a sign that he hasn't simply been unlucky of late.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the best right-handed hitter in this San Diego lineup and benefits from a great HR park, with temperatures reaching 91 degrees today.

The Padres outfielder has a .961 OPS against lefties, while his .588 slugging percentage against them ranks among the Top 10 marks in baseball this year.

I'll play this to 27% tonight and think the Padres can stack some runs in a great setting against a pitcher struggling to find his game after the blister issue.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Padres.TV

Home run prediction: Michael Harris (22%)

The Braves have a great home run matchup against Jake Irvin, who is struggling with his command after a six-walk outing. He did manage to keep the ball in the park in that game, but it was his first homerless outing in five straight starts.

Michael Harris is a hot bat, owning the No. 4 slugging percentage in baseball over the last two weeks. He also has plenty of familiarity with Irvin, having faced him 24 times while hitting nearly .300.

He's the Braves' hottest hitter, and his price is on the good side of 25%, where I don't like to go above.

Half of Harris' hits have gone for extra bases dating back to Aug. 23, and 90-degree temperatures with winds blowing out to his pull side only improve the matchup.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: One National or Two local

Best home run combo for Sept. 1

Colson Montgomery	Trade Now 66.98x
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Michael Harris

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Left field has been a revolving door for the San Diego Padres. It hasn’t been for a lack of trying, as Padres manager Craig Stammen has cycled through an endless list to find a replacement for Opening Day starter Ramon Laureano.

As the latest left-field option, Dustin Harris could end the organization’s search for an upgrade. 

Laureano was irreplaceable 

Coming out of spring training, the Friars had a very balanced outfield in Laureano, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. You could argue that it was the best defensive unit in baseball. The one deterrent was the lack of outfield depth on the 40-man roster. 

Gavin Sheets and others have tried to replace Laureano after his season ended with hip surgery. Some of the candidates could provide timely hitting, but none could match his defensive metrics.

Sheets logged the second-most playing time in left field until suffering various foot injuries. He developed plantar fasciitis in his left foot, then sprained the same foot this past weekend in Tampa. His status for the remainder of the season is up in the air.

It is disappointing because Sheets has done everything asked of him this season. If his foot injury limits him to a DH role, then Harris offers some value in left field. 

Let’s introduce Dustin Harris

He is an intriguing late-season addition, but Harris is unknown to the Friar Faithful. 

The Padres took a flyer on him, betting his physical tools would translate well in the majors. Harris has plate discipline, posting an under-9% strike rate and over a 10% walk rate in Triple-A. However, he has below-average power potential, hitting only 89 home runs in eight minor league seasons. 

Since his call-up to the majors, Harris is mashing the baseball. He is hitting .470 (8-17) in the Brown & Gold. The 27-year-old outfielder has above-average speed that allows him to run the bases aggressively. His athleticism will come in handy when attempting to take an extra base on a bloop hit. 

Versatility gives a roster depth and flexibility.  Harris has played at first base, third base, left field, and center field during his time in the minors. He has shown enough range to make plays at each position. 

In recent years, organizations should have valued big-league readiness more than long-term potential. There is nothing wrong with emphasising potential stardom for certain prospects. But teams want young players who want to compete for major league at-bats.

Originally, the Padres thought Harris could become a solid contributor off the bench. But it is hard to ignore the upside he brings to the lineup.

There is nothing like a home run robbery to demolish the morale of an opposing team, but what happened on Monday night between the Orioles and Rockies was downright heartbreaking for Colorado.

Jake McCarthy of the Rockies thought he had a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth — heck, the entire stadium thought he did a well. A deep shot to center field with a man on, it appeared as though home fans would be rewarded for sitting through a two-hour rain delay. Unfortunately for them, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser happened.

There are some moments in sports where everything just happens to come together cosmically to allow a moment to happen. Everything about this robbery wasn’t just picture perfect, it was dang near impossible as Cowser went full Air Jordan on the extension to throw his glove behind his head, over the fence, and just pray the ball would somehow find leather.

The announcers couldn’t even believe it at first, and neither could Rockies manager Warren Schaffer, who said the catch was “like a dang knife in the heart” during his post-game interview. Just an absolute stunner, and one of the best catches you will ever see.

Game Recaps

Phillies, Stott end blazing August with an all-around win vs. D-backs by Michael Reynolds [MLB]

The Phillies closed July having lost four straight games and four straight series, but they opened August with four straight wins and never looked back. 

With a 2-1 victory over the D-backs in Monday’s series opener, the Phillies closed August at 21-7, tied for the 10th-best month by winning percentage in club history. They’ve swept four of their last five series and are riding a five-game heater.

Bryson Stott hits a solo HR, Phillies beat the Diamondbacks 2-1 to cap 21-win August [ESPN]

Stott crushed a 464-foot homer to right field in the second that gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead. Bryce Harper‘s double off the center field wall in the third scored Garrett Stubbs and pushed the advantage to 2-0.

Nola (6-10) pitched into the sixth inning, giving up one run on five hits and two walks, striking out five. The veteran right-hander has given up two runs or less in five straight starts.

Diamondbacks News

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte & Torey Lovullo full press conferences before the Phillies series [Arizona Sports]

Ketel Marte said he had no message for Diamondbacks fans, but they did by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

Boos from the Chase Field crowd overpowered the cheers when Ketel Marte stepped up to the plate on Monday, his first at-bat since his Boston no-show two weeks ago.

Before the game, Marte faced questions from the media, and when asked whether he had a message for Diamondbacks fans, Marte shook his head. Paying more attention to addressing his teammates, he neglected the fanbase that has been cheering him on for 10 years, essentially declining to swing at a meatball.

Diamondbacks Give New Injury Update on Gurriel, Burnes, Gallen & More by Jack Sommers [SI]

Lovullo could not say exactly when and where Burnes would pitch his next outing. It sounded like there was some concern that the velocity was not there yet (down 2 MPH on his signature cutter).

“Every time he throws a pitch, it’s shown at 90-91. It’s not the 92-94 that we know he can get to. It’s not a top end. So I know there’s some that say yes, and I’m in that camp that you’re building up that overall number. And it’s not the same, but we want that big number,” Lovullo said.

Around the League

Cubs set franchise record with nine homers in rout of Brewers by Jordan Bastian [MLB]

The North Siders welcomed the rival Brewers to Wrigley Field for the opener of a crucial four-game series and flexed their propensity for power en route to a 17-3 rout. Alex Bregman went deep three times as part of a nine-homer attack that set a single-game record for home runs in the long, storied history of the Cubs.

The nine homers are tied for the second-most in a game in MLB history since at least 1900, trailing only the 10 homers launched by the Blue Jays on Sept. 14, 1987. Chicago’s 62 homers in August set a one-month record for the team, and are second all-time for a calendar month in baseball history. Only the 2019 Yankees (74 in August) have hit more. 

Chisholm Jr., Yankees criticize Red Sox radio voice Flemming by Alden Gonzalez[ESPN]

There was no radio silence from the Yankees on Monday, a day after comments made by Boston Red Sox play-by-play announcer Will Flemming added some fuel to the longtime rivalry.

In fact, several Yankees players went out of their way to openly criticize Flemming, calling him “unprofessional” and questioning why a radio voice would suggest a team throw at an opposing player.

Flemming, who works for Boston radio station WEEI, first called Jazz Chisholm Jr. a “bush league player” after he stole a pair of bases in the eighth inning of Sunday’s series finale in the Bronx with New York ahead 7-1. He then suggested to WEEI color analyst Will Middlebrooks that Red Sox left-hander Jovani Moran retaliate by beaning Yankees catcher Austin Wells, who was batting at the time.

Padres To Promote Ethan Salas by Anthony Franco [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Padres are calling up top catching prospect Ethan Salas, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Salas, who turned 20 in June, will be the youngest player in the big leagues (assuming no one takes that title from him tomorrow).

The Yankees’ West Coast trip didn’t get off to the best start, opening up their series against the Angels with a 10-1 loss that felt over pretty early. Whether it was a hangover from the blowout win they got on Sunday, the cross-country travel after playing four games in three days, or just a genuine bad night, at the end of the day it counts as an L in the record books all the same. Looking around across the league, there was at least one major rival that didn’t take advantage of their blunder.

Tampa Bay Rays (82-55) 2, New York Mets (62-76) 3

The odds didn’t look great for the Mets upsetting the Rays when they didn’t start Juan Soto for the opener of this series, but as it turned out they still had enough to get the job done. Robert Stock took the ball for the Metropolitans and delivered 5.1 innings without allowing a run, scattering five hits throughout his outing. The only time he came under threat was in the fifth when the first three Rays all got aboard on singles, but Stock managed to induce a weak pop up and a strikeout before Jonathan Aranda lined out to end the frame.

New York had taken the lead an inning earlier, Mark Vientos still managing to bring a run in on a double-play ball, but they remained shut down by Ian Seymour otherwise until the seventh inning. There, Vientos made up for not making the most out of his earlier RBI chance by depositing a ball over the wall in left-center to lead off the inning. Seymour got his 10th strikeout after that, but got hooked after giving up a single to Christopher Morel and had to watch as the Mets stringed a couple more hits together to push the lead to 3-0. Tampa finally got themselves on the scoreboard in the eighth inning against Daniel Duarte, collecting three singles and a walk to generate a pair of runs, but against Kodai Senga in the ninth they wasted a leadoff walk going down in order right after.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (75-63) 9, Seattle Mariners (64-74) 8 (10 innings): Oh Seattle, what a disappointing season you’ve had. The Mariners’ frustrating run continued with an extra-inning loss after they blew a three-run lead late on the road. They scored right away getting a Randy Arozarena leadoff double and a Julio Rodriguez double to follow up, but Mickey Gasper tied it right up with a solo shot in the bottom half of the first (continuing a small sample run that’s nevertheless one of the hottest months a hitter’s ever had). Boston then built their first lead of the night on a Jarren Duran two-run homer in the second, which Seattle immediately cut into with an Arozarena solo shot in the third and tied back up when Arozarena singled in a run in the fifth.

Boston was back at it in the bottom half of the fifth, Ceddanne Rafaela singling in a pair of runs to re-take the lead, but Seattle responded right away with a four-run sixth. Arozarena was again at the center of the offensive push, adding two more runs batted in to lead the way with four overall before Dominic Canzone followed with a two-run double to put the Mariners up 7-5. Cal Raleigh got into the mix in the seventh with a solo shot pushing the lead to three, but Boston was far from dead. Recently reinstated from the IL, Trevor Story doubled in a pair of runs in the eighth to cut the deficit to one before fellow reinforcement Roman Anthony led off the ninth with a triple that ate up Rodriguez out in center. Rafaela brought him home on a sac fly to tie the game and force extras, where the Mariners bunted their Manfred runner over to third before striking out to end their chances. Needing a clean inning, the M’s chose to intentionally walk two batters to get their matchup against Story with the force on everywhere, but Story laced a hit to the wall in center to walk it off.

Chicago White Sox (72-65) 3, Houston Astros (70-68) 6: In a battle of the other two divisions’ leaders, Houston came out on top. Anthony Kay was doing decently for Chicago through three innings, allowing only an unearned run through a couple of groundouts up until that point. In the fourth with a 2-1 lead though, Cam Smith tripled and Nelson Velázquez brought him in with a two-run shot to left to take the lead. Then the fifth inning fully undid him, a trio of singles loading the bases before he walked in a run and got pulled a batter later. Trevor Richards entered to face Smith, but he got his second extra-base hit of the night lining a double to drive in two more runs. Up 6-2, the Astros’ bullpen did a solid job covering 4.1 innings with four pitchers, only allowing a solo shot to Colson Montgomery in the seventh inning.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Texas Rangers (68-70) 8, Athletics (53-85) 1: The Rangers ran this one from the onset, scoring in the second inning and pouring it on over the next three. Elias Díaz and Cody Freeman gave Texas all the offense they’d need when the former grounded a run in and the latter slapped an RBI single in the second, supporting Jacob deGrom as he twirled seven shutout innings and allowed just a single hit all day, a leadoff single in the top of the second that got erased on a double play. The A’s lone run came in the ninth when Jonah Heim ripped a double to put runners on second and third and Darell Hernaiz lifted a sacrifice fly, but they couldn’t scratch any more across as the next two A’s went down without much of a fight.

Baltimore Orioles (69-69) 2, Colorado Rockies (52-86) 1: The Orioles got their lead in the seventh inning when Colton Cowser managed to beat out a double play ball to bring in a run on the force out. Cowser’s contributions didn’t stop there, however: he made the play of the game robbing Jake McCarthy of a potential walk-off home run with two outs in the ninth on a full-extension leap to steal victory out of the jaws of defeat.

With the calendar turning to September, the burning question in Astros fans hearts and minds is “if” they’ll be returning to the postseason.      After all, it’s been an agonizing 23 months since the playoff loss to the Tigers.    

September is a magical time.     For this author, nothing compares to Mike Scott’s no-hitter at the Dome on September 25, 1986 against the Giants.     Scott’s 13 K performance, the roar of the crowd, many of which refused to head to the exits long after the contest was etched in stone, is cemented in my sports fandom.     Clinching the division that day for just the second time in franchise history, and to do it at home was extra special.   

Five years earlier, Nolan Ryan’s fifth no hitter also took place at the Dome.    Ironically, Dusty Baker struck out on three straight pitches to end the one-sided affair.     With the win, Ryan passed Sandy Koufax’s record of four no-no’s.    

1999 saw the Killer B’s era culminate with a third straight NL Central title.     That particular September, they’d win 19 games.     

Of course, the 2019 Astros took a back seat to no one.    They’d win 107 games and the final month of the regular season started off with a bang.     After laboring through the first inning, tossing 21 pitches, Justin Verlander would settle in and throw his third career no hitter.    That would propel Houston to a dominant month from start to finish.    

In terms of saving the best for last, Vanessa Williams would be proud.     Jeff Bagwell would wait until September 30th of the 2000 campaign to launch his 47th.     The blast would come off of Brewers pitcher Everett Stull. Fun fact, Stull would win only 2 games in his brief MLB career.    

There have been monumental surprises in September as well.    Who can forget the unthinkable three game sweep in 2023 to the lowly Royals, who would drop a whopping 102 games that year?      There was also forgotten hero Jason Heyward who stepped in for Yordan Alvarez in securing a division title two seasons ago.     Heyward would not only hit a go-ahead homer against Seattle, but he’d also make some stellar defensive plays throughout their run.    

For the current batch of Astros, the road to the playoffs is a variety snack pack in the grocery store aisle.  On one hand, they’ll face some of the elite, such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves.     The Phillies and White Sox are also marching towards the playoffs.      On the flipside, they’ll face the Royals and A’s, who will be hovering around 100 losses by the time they close the books on the regular season.     Then of course are the dreaded Mariners, who on the 22nd and 23rd of this month will host us for a mini two game series.     Seattle has won 9 out of 11 meetings head-to-head thus far.     

Will the magical moment come from Josh Hader on the final day?    Will it come in dramatic fashion from Yordan Alvarez as he continues his chase for baseball’s triple crown?     One thing is for certain, fasten your seatbelts, it’s sure to be a wild ride.    

This Week in the Minors is our weekly look at notable performances from all over the system, from big-name prospects and less-heralded guys alike. The mission is to answer this simple question: “Who had a good week?”

Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (59-70, 20.5 games back)

The Storm Chasers dropped 4 of 6 in their series against the Iowa Cubs. At the plate, Carson Roccaforte, one of the newer members for Omaha, went 9 for 24, smacking a pair of doubles and homers, driving in 6 and scoring 3 runs. He also stole 4 bases. Peyton Wilson went 7 for 14, with two doubles and a homer, driving in three and scoring three. He also stole 4 bases too. Gavin Cross, who just got back from the IL, went 3 for 13 with two homers.

On the mound, Lucas Braun made 2 starts, totaling 10 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 runs, walking 4 and striking out 9. My pick for the September call-up would be Braun on the pitching side. Matt Moore threw 3.2 scoreless innings of relief, over two outings, striking out 6. Tony Gonsolin, who may get some time in KC before the season is over, made his first appearance, going 3 innings, allowing just a walk, while striking out 3. Lucas Erceg pitched twice, totaling 3 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 runs, striking out 3.

The Storm Chasers return home this week, taking on the St. Paul Saints, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (53-71, 24 games back)

The Naturals split their 6-game series against the Frisco RoughRiders. On the mound, Hunter Owen made one start, going 5.2 innings, allowing 6 hits, 1 run, a walk, striking out 10. In the month of August, Owen struck out 45 batters in 27 innings. In his 5 starts, he posted just a 1.33 ERA. He is a 24-year-old lefty that the Royals drafted in the 4th round in 2023 out of Vanderbilt. Augusto Mendieta had two scoreless outings out of the bullpen, totaling 4.2 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks, but striking out 8. Frank Mozzicato had two more scoreless outings from the bullpen, totaling 4 hitless innings, he did walk 3, but struck out 4. Have the Royals found something with him in the pen? In 8 appearances in August, he went 11.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, walking 10, but striking out 17.

At the plate, Spencer Nivens went 8 for 22, with two doubles, three runs batted in, with 5 runs scored. Luke Pelzer went 6 for 18, with a double and triple, scoring five runs and stealing three bases. Javier Vaz went 5 for 15, with 4 doubles. It’s good to see Vaz back and playing. Hyungchan Um, who has quickly moved from Columbia to Quad Cities to Northwest Arkansas in recent weeks, went 2 for 10.

The Naturals hit the road this week, taking on the Arkansas Travelers. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Quad Cities River Bandits (67-54, 4.5 games back)

The River Bandits won 4 of 6 in their series against the Beloit Sky Carp. The Bandits are 37-21 in the second half, holding a two-game lead over the Sky Carp to win the second half. They control their own destiny to get to the playoffs. At the plate, Blake Mitchell went 4 for 18, with a homer and 5 runs batted in. Ramon Ramirez returned from injury and went 3 for 19, with a homer and 4 runs batted in. Austin Charles went 6 for 18, with two homers, driving in 4 runs. Zion Rose went 4 for 14, with a double and two runs batted in.

On the mound, David Shields went 6 innings, allowing 3 hits, 2 runs, striking out 7 in his lone start of the week. Jordan Woods went 4.2 innings, allowing 5 hits, 1 run, striking out 4. Ethan McElvain threw 3 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out 1. McElvain was the Royals 5th round pick out of Arkansas this year. Kamden Edge threw 3.1 scoreless, hitless innings, striking out 5. L.P. Langevin threw 4 innings, allowing an unearned run to score, but struck out 10 batters. John Means, born in Olathe, Kansas, started his rehab assignment from a torn Achillies. He made 2 starts in the week, totaling 3 innings, allowing 5 hits, 3 runs, walking 1 and striking out 1. Kendry Chourio made one start, going 3 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, striking out 4.

The River Bandits are on the road this week, taking on the Peoria Chiefs. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the last regular season series of the year.

Columbia Fireflies (63-62, 14.5 games back)

The Fireflies won 4 of 6 in their series against the Charleston RiverDogs. On the mound, Shane Van Dam went 4 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run, striking out 3 in his lone start of the week. Van Dam is a 22-year-old right hander, who the Royals took in the 9th round of the 2025 draft out of North Carolina State. Adrian Belen threw 3.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out one. Ryan McDonagh went 4 innings, allowing 1 hit, no runs, striking out 2 in his lone start of the week. Overall, it was a solid week on the mound for the Fireflies whole pitching staff.

At the plate, Tyson Moran went 5 for 16 with a double and triple, scoring 3 runs. Moran is a 20-year-old shortstop, who the Royals took in the 13th round last year from Canada. He just got to Columbia from the ACL. Connor Rasmussen went 5 for 16 with two doubles and a triple, with two RBI’s and 3 runs scored. Ricson Gonzalez went 6 for 11, driving in two and scoring two. Gonzalez is a 21-year-old catcher from Venezuela; he just recently got promoted from the ACL. The Royals signed Gonzalez when he was 17. Daniel Lopez went 4 for 10, scoring a run and driving one in. Lopez is a 20-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic. The Royals signed him when he was just 17 years old.

The Fireflies are on the road this week, taking on the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the final series of the year for the Fireflies.

The Nats are calling up one of the more intriguing hitters in their system. Yohandy Morales was the Nationals second round pick in the 2023 draft. After grinding his way through minors, the 24 year old is finally going to get his first look at the minor leagues. It is tough to say this call up is not deserved.

Morales was one of the biggest stories in the Nats minor league system to start the season. He looked ready for the big leagues after a red hot start to the season, but the Nats were hesitant to call him up. We will get into some of those reasons later, but first let’s start with the positives.

This year Morales has been highly productive. In 104 games at AAA, Morales is hitting .286 with 25 homers and an .882 OPS. The right handed slugger makes consistent hard contact with an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH and a hard hit rate of 52.4%. All this hard contact, combined with lower launch angles allows Morales to consistently run high BABIP’s. Despite being a high strikeout guy, Morales is a .285 career hitter in the minors.

While he is a high strikeout guy, those numbers have gotten better this season. In AAA, his K% has gone from over 30% to 24.4% this year. He has also been able to turn his plus raw power into more actual home runs this year as well. Over half of his 47 MILB homers have come this season.

Morales has not done this by pulling the ball in the air though. His pull air numbers are very low and instead he uses the whole field to go yard. A lot of his best swings are to right-center field. This is both a blessing and a curse.

The ability to use the whole field and use it with authority is a rare gift. However, I think part of this might be due to him not being on time enough. Morales has had real trouble with high velocity, and will only see more of it up in the big leagues.

Honestly, Morales’ offensive profile reminds me quite a bit of Brady House. We saw how House struggled when he first came up. Morales might face similar growing pains. However, it is tough to tell how much he will even play down the stretch.

As a first baseman and third baseman, there is not an obvious spot in the lineup for him. Andres Chaparro, Abimelec Ortiz, Jorbit Vivas and Brady House are all fighting for reps in those positions. We could see him some at DH, but I think he could be more of a part time player.

I am still very interested to see what Morales can do. His profile feels like it should not work, yet to this point he has been a highly productive hitter. He hits a lot of ground balls, chases, whiffs and doesn’t pull the ball. Yet, he has 25 homers on the season and has made it to the big leagues. 

With the lockout looming, it feels like some prospects are being held back. However, Morales had to be put on the 40-man roster anyways at the end of the season. That likely played a role in his call-up. Yo-Yo is an intriguing and somewhat divisive prospect. I am curious to see how this first exposure to the big leagues goes for him.

The San Diego Padres had another big inning. But this time the pitching made the four-run fourth inning stand up and the Padres beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-0 to open their three-game series at Great American Ball Park on Monday.

San Diego was able to get to Cincinnati pitcher Brady Singer in the top of the fourth inning with six consecutive hits, which resulted in four runs. The only troubling part for the Padres was how the inning ended. Another failed bunt attempt that resulted in a pop out to the catcher was the first out of the inning and the inning ended one batter later with a ground ball double play.

The Padres opened the top of the fourth with a singles from Manny Machado and Ty France. With runners on the corners, Jackson Merrill brought home the first run of the game with s single through the right side of the infield. Xander Bogaerts followed with a two-run double and San Diego had a 3-0 lead with a runner in scoring position and still no outs. Dustin Harris brought Bogaerts in with another single and the Padres had a 4-0 advantage. Luis Campusano added the the fifth single of the inning to put runners at first and second. The momentum of the inning seemed to come crashing down when Sung-Mun Song popped a bunt into the air at home plate, which was caught for the first out of the inning. Singer was able to get out of the inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into and inning-ending 5-4-3 double play.

Michael King who had found himself in trouble in the first three innings stranding two runners on base in each frame, locked in with the lead. He worked a scoreless bottom of the fourth, facing just three batters and did the same in the fifth. King returned to the mound in the bottom of the sixth. He found himself in trouble once again and after a hit-by-pitch to put two on with two outs, Padres manager Craig Stammen came out to the mound. King convinced the first-year manager to leave him in the game and he rewarded him for his faith with a first-pitch line drive out to end the frame.

San Diego tacked on an insurance run in the top of the seventh inning after Tatis led off with a double to center field. Machado hit a one-out fly ball to right field, which allowed Tatis to tag up and advance to third. France delivered an RBI-single to give the Padres a 5-0 lead and was followed by Merrill with a single to put two runners on before Bogaerts filed out to end the inning.

King finished with six scoreless innings with just four hits allowed. He also walked three batters and hit two more, but he also recorded six strikeouts. Kyle Hart pitched two scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth innings and Wandy Peralta handled a scoreless ninth to help San Diego snap its three-game losing streak.

The Padres will try to make it two in a row and win the series with he Reds today at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• According to multiple reports, the Padres are calling up top prospect Ethan Salas to make his MLB debut.

• San Diego announced on Monday that Luis Rengifo has a full tear of his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

Baseball News:

• The Chicago Cubs had a historic night and hit nine home runs in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

• The Philadelphia Phillies held on for a 2-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• The Boston Red Sox got a walk-off win over the Seattle Mariners.

• Jacob deGrom allowed one hit over seven innings to lead the Texas Rangers over the Athletics.

Sonny Gray will not start tonight for the Red Sox. He’s not hurt, he’s just getting a little break. “I feel fine,” Gray said. “I think it’s just taking a few days, getting my body recovered, fully recovered, and that was it. Physically, I feel really good. About a month ago, we just talked about it and said, ‘Let’s re-evaluate when we get to [this point].’ So that’s what we did.” The Red Sox have not yet announced who will take the mound tonight, in what will likely be a bullpen game. Reminder: the owners have made September baseball essentially meaningless now.(Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Willson Contreras seems to be in a similar situation with his hamstring. Nothing has happened to it recently and he hasn’t had anything that’s being labeled a setback. Rather, he’s simply been dealing with the balky hamstring for several weeks and is now taking some time to let it recover before the playoffs. “I don’t want to paint the picture that it’s like something way worse happened. Just a recurrence of the same thing,” Chad Tracy said. “The triple, doubleheader, a hard run there. It creeps up again. And he played [Sunday], and just with some irritation again. It’s just to the point where if we need to give him another few days to let it calm down, we’re getting to a point where it’s tough to be short bodies.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Luckily, Mickey Gasper was able to step right in for Contreras and pick up where he left off. Gasper was disappointed but understanding of the initial decision to send him back to Worcester. “GM is a tough job. Guys are coming back, and decisions had to be made,” he said, “so I understood why I was the man out.” But, in light of the fact that he was literally the best hitter in baseball during his time with the big league club, he did ask Craig Breslow what he needed to do to stay up. (Julian Benbow, Boston Globe)

It’s good that Gray and Contreras are getting some rest before the postseason. But you know what’s really restful? A nice, warm hug. Maybe that’s why Payton Tolle was giving them out on the field last night, even to people he’d never met. “It just kind of happened,” Tolle said about his hug with Dominic Canzone. “I was right there in front of him, like, ‘Bring it in for the big one.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

The opposite of a hug is wishing physical violence on someone, which is what WEEI play-by-play man Will Flemming did during Sunday’s game against the Yankees, when he urged Red Sox players to throw at Jazz Chisholm and fight Austin Wells. Needless to say, Flemming has apologized for being a giant ass. Naturally, though, he couldn’t apologize without also taking other people to task for their behavior: “Since I have been receiving nonstop calls and threats,” he wrote on Twitter, “I felt like it was important to hop back on here and say: My comments during yesterday’s broadcast crossed a line. I’m emotional and a fan at heart and that bled into the broadcast.” (Chad Finn, Boston.com)

Rangers 8, A’s 1

• Baseball is fun again.
• And Jacob deGrom was dominant again.
• Bouncing back from a disastrous eight run outing where he was knocked out in the fourth inning, deGrom looked like vintage deGrom once again, facing the minimum 21 batters over seven innings while allowing just one baserunner — Lawrence Butler, on a second inning single — who was then erased on a double play.
• This is the second time in his last three games that deGrom has allowed just one hit.
• What is interesting is that deGrom is generally either quite good, or not good at all. In 18 starts of his 26 starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
• He’s allowed three runs in one start, and four runs in another start.
• In his other six starts he has allowed five runs twice, six runs three times, and eight runs once.
• The home/road splits are pretty extreme for deGrom this year…he has a 2.42 ERA in 13 starts at home, and a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts on the road. His walk rate is higher on the road, his K rate is lower, and 11 of the 17 homers he has allowed have come on the road.
• With 8 Ks, deGrom moved up from 93rd to 88th on the all time strikeout list, passing Catfish Hunter, Dan Haren, Orel Hershiser, Rick Reuschel and Lance Lynn. He’s now 15 behind Aaron Nola, 27 behind Dazzy Vance, 35 behind Sonny Gray, and 52 behind Madison Bumgarner.
• The game was far enough out of reach late that the newly-recalled Robby Ahlstrom and Ben “Power to the” Peoples got to go an inning apiece to finish things out. Ahlstrom faced the minimum, but sadly, Peoples allowed a run on two outs, ending both the shutout and the one hitter.
• Per Statcast, the A’s had a .132 xBA in the game, so it wasn’t as if they were stinging the ball and just seeing it find gloves. Its the second lowest xBA allowed in a game this season by the Rangers, and the 79th lowest in the majors.
• The Rangers scored early and often, putting runs on the board in four of the first five innings and taking a comfy 7-0 lead into the sixth inning.
• Ezequiel Duran, anointed the leadoff man for the first time in his career, was 1 for 4 with a walk, and he is now slashing .273/.331/.448 on the year, which I don’t think any of us were expecting.
• Duran has also started a game in every spot in the batting order this season, 1 through 9. I’m curious as to how often a player does that.
• Justin Foscue homered. Way to go, Justin!
• Cody Freeman had a couple of hits, as he continues to play regularly against lefthanded pitching.
• It occurred to me when I was doing the lineup yesterday that I hadn’t typed in Nicky Lopez’s name for a while. His last start was on August 19 — since then, he has appeared in just six games, coming in in the middle or late innings. The last two times he has entered the game it was late in a blowout in place of Corey Seager, including in this game.
• Seager, incidentally, drew a couple of walks, had a barreled fly out to the wall, and had a hard hit groundout. He’s cooled down from that stretch when he was getting two hits in every game it seemed like, but he’s fine.
• Jacob deGrom touched 98.8 mph with his fastball, averaging 97.6 mph. Robby Ahlstrom’s fastball touched 96.4 mph. Ben Peoples maxed out at 95.3 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 110.9 mph single and a 105.6 mph fly out. Justin Foscue had a 105.7 mph home run. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.6 mph fly out and a 101.5 mph fly out. Jake Burger had a 105.4 mph single amd a 103.2 mph double. Corey Seager had a 105.0 mph fly out. Elias Diaz had a 104.8 mph fly out.
• That’s two in a row. The wins, they must continue.

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The high-flying Los Angeles Dodgers are priced as hefty 62% moneyline favorites tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium as they search for their fourth straight home victory. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. 

My Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions expect L.A. to come out on top here against Michael McGreevy, who is struggling lately. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers (62%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael McGreevy is in a rough spell for the St. Louis Cardinals, giving the Los Angeles Dodgers a clear path tonight. The right-hander has a 5.70 FIP over his last two starts with command and homer issues, plus a 5.02 mark over the last month.

The Dodgers are not in peak offensive form, but their 102 wRC+ at home is enough to attack McGreevy.

Eric Lauer has struggled too, posting a 5.50 xERA over his last two outings, but he rarely works deep, and Los Angeles’ bullpen owns a respectable 4.12 FIP over its previous 18.1 frames.

Against a Cardinals lineup with a 77 wRC+ recently, the Dodgers have the better full-game profile.

Play this pick up to 65%.

COVERS INTEL: Lauerhas been much more consistent at home this season, posting a 4.27 FIP, compared to a 5.96 mark on the road. 

Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (47%)

I’m leaning Under 8.5 here, even with both starters carrying some recent risk.

The Dodgers are not exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now, posting an 88 wRC+ with a poor .084 ISO over the last week. That makes it harder to trust them to fully punish McGreevy, even with his recent command and homer issues.

The Cardinals’ offense is also struggling, and Lauer should not need to be perfect with Los Angeles’ bullpen in decent shape behind him.

The biggest separator is St. Louis’ relief corps, which owns a 2.65 FIP over its last 27 2/3 innings with a 12.04 K/9.

Play this pick up to 55%.

Cardinals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Jordan Walker (22%)

Jordan Walker has not gone deep lately, but the underlying numbers suggest one could be coming. The slugger owns a 56.3% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 23.4-degree launch angle over the last week.

Walker is consistently putting the baseball in the air, and Lauer has allowed 2.08 HR/9 over his previous five appearances with an alarming 51.7% fly-ball rate during that span.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has not allowed many homers recently, but it has given up 46.5% fly balls over the last two weeks.

Walker has a chance to run into one tonight.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Cardinals vs Dodgers weather

Weather at Dodger Stadium looks clean tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 75 F to 67 F. Winds are light to moderate at 7 to 9 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout. No delay concern, with cooler late-game conditions that could slightly limit carry.

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals 39% | Dodgers 62%
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (56%) | Dodgers -1.5 (45%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (54%) | Under 8.5 (47%)

Cardinals vs Dodgers trend

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the game total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Cardinals vs Dodgers and game info

Cardinals vs Dodgers latest injuries

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Good morning.

The DMN’s Nate Sanchez writes about the Texas Rangers closing out August with an excellent performance from Jacob deGrom.

Kennedi Landry writes about deGrom’s seven innings of one-hit ball, which helped the Rangers enter September with a couple of wins in a row.

Jeff Wilson writes about deGrom rebounding from statistically one of his worst outings last week in Chicago to one of his best outings with Texas last evening.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Rangers will have to hope that a couple of last ditch veteran roster reinforcements can arrive sooner rather than later.

McFarland writes that reliever Robert Garcia could be an impact arm upon his return after missing much of the year.

And, the American League is terrible but Russell Dorsey writes that the Rangers could be a threat in October if they make it there.

Have a nice day!

This past offseason, Pete Alonso signed the richest deal in Orioles history, trading Queens for Baltimore and a deal for $155M/five years. Through the 138 games of Alonso’s Orioles career, you could argue the Polar Bear has been underpaid.

Alonso has undoubtedly been the heartbeat of an Orioles team that, after last night’s win in Colorado, sits 0.5 GBof the final AL Wild Card spot. He currently leads the Orioles in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBIs and OPS. He has an outside chance to become the 10th Oriole with 40+ home runs in a season, will undoubtedly top 100 RBIs and should become the first Oriole since Jonathan Villar in 2019 to play all 162 games. If Alonso isn’t voted as the unanimous Most Valuable Oriole at the end of the season, it would be an injustice.

However, his performance during the second half of the season has put him in the conversation for bigger awards. Since July 1st, Alonso is slashing .305/.394/.558 with 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 51 games. After collecting 20 multi-hit games over the first 87 games of the season, Alonso has 17 in those last 51 contests—including his first four-hit game as an Oriole last week in St. Louis. During the last two months, Alonso ranks fifth in the AL in hits, second in home runs, sixth in RBIs and second in OPS.

For most of the season, Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has been the presumptive AL MVP winner. After all, the Astros’ DH is still on pace to complete the American League’s first Triple Crown season since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. However, Alvarez’s grasp on each of those Triple Crown categories has become more and more tenuous of late. Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson (.311) is only five points behind Alvarez (.316) for the AL batting title. After homering twice over the weekend, the Rays’ Junior Caminero tied him with 37 long balls. And after his recent tear, Alonso sits only three RBIs behind Alvarez for the AL RBI lead.

Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the last AL MVP winner from a non-playoff team was Alex Rodriguez on the 2003 Texas Rangers—a fact which could play in Alonso’s favor. The Astros are one of many teams participating in the American League’s musical chair of mediocrity. Though currently leading the AL West, Houston only sits one game above .500 and two games above the second-place Rangers.

MVP awards can be largely narrative-driven. Could Alvarez’s MVP narrative survive both the loss of the Triple Crown and the Astros missing the playoffs? It’s possible, but if both of those came to pass, it’d certainly weaken his presumed stranglehold on this year’s MVP.

The Polar Bear could benefit from the reverse narrative. Should the Orioles complete their turnaround and secure a postseason spot, Alonso will undoubtedly get much of the credit for Baltimore’s unlikely comeback. After all, the Orioles traded away two of their best hitters at the deadline, leaving their prize free-agent acquisition as the only reliable force in their lineup. He’s responded by being a steadying force; one that’s given the other members of this lineup time to rise closer to his level.

Alonso winning the MVP is still probably as likely as when the Orioles had a 13.5% chance to make the playoffs. After all, FanDuel still lists Alvarez as a -20,000 favorite to take home the hardware come season’s end. But Alonso is sitting there with the third-best odds at +4500, just behind Caminero.

The Orioles’ 1B is also fighting against the positional value stigma that comes with playing first. Outside of José Abreu’s MVP from the shortened 2020 season, no 1B has won AL MVP since Justin Morneau twenty years ago. The position’s perceived lack of defensive importance means that 1B often get knocked down a peg in value statistics like WAR. Despite his excellent offensive numbers (and playing the best defense of his career), Alonso currently ranks 15th in bWAR.

In all likelihood, Alonso is on his way to the Orioles’ first top 3 MVP finish since Chris Davis in 2013. The Polar Bear is also likely to become the first 1B since Adrian Gonzalez to win Silver Slugger awards in both the National and American Leagues.

It has already been a debut season to remember for the Polar Bear in Baltimore, one that will hopefully end with an Orioles return to the postseason. And while Alvarez’s advantage in the MVP race is likely too great to overcome, Alonso’s season has been MVP-worthy.