Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

MAILBAG: This communique from Rangers Fan In Florida – Sir Al Greenberg – points an accusatory finger at Artemi Panarin: 

"Interestingly," says Greenberg, `'the Rangers' late season – and commendable – victory rush coincides with the trading of Breadman Panarin. Considering Artemi's importance to the team, his plus-minus mark of MINUS - 16 hurt the Blueshirts."

Perhaps more than we ever imagined.

Like The Maven, Sir Alan questions aspects of GM Chris Drury's "Retooling" or whatever you choose to call the full-speed ahead youth movement.

"They have a heck of a prospect in (left wing) Adam Sýkora but I'm baffled by the fact that they let him rot in Hartford when he could have flourished in New York. Same with Gabe Perreault, Jaroslav Chmelař and Noah Laba."

Thanks for the "heads-up" Brother Greenberg, too bad you weren't in the general manager's chair; this team could have made the playoffs! 

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Bundle up for today's MLB best bets, with a cold front sweeping across the league today.

Tuesday will be one of the coldest days for baseball in recent history with eight games played in the 40s, including five that will dip into the 30s.

Home runs per game and the estimated weather effect on similar slates over the years: pic.twitter.com/SBLRjoseXS

— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) April 7, 2026

Despite the frigid temps, we've polled our baseball experts for their favorite MLB picks today — and thanks to prediction markets like Polymarket, bettors all over the country can join us on the action as well!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: LAD/TOR u7.5	+113
Neil Parker: WAS ML	-104
Joe Osborne: NYY -1.5	-104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers/Blue Jays Under 7.5

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

The Toronto Blue Jays' offense is in a tough stretch, scoring just 10 runs during their current five-game losing streak, and now they draw a difficult matchup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. On the other side, Kevin Gausman, who has cashed the Under in both of his starts so far, should be given a long leash, with Toronto leaning on its A-bullpen behind him after burning the B arms yesterday. Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a potent lineup, but Toronto’s high-leverage arms should be able to limit scoring late — and with the Dodgers also resting their top bullpen options last night, run production in the final innings should be limited.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Nationals moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

There’s a screaming statistical correction coming for Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore, and the Nationals lineup is set to serve it. Liberatore’s 1.64 ERA through two starts is saddled with a 5.28 xFIP, and both his .216 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate are going to take hits tonight against a Washington lineup that paces the majors in on-base percentage and ranks third in wOBA against southpaws.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Yankees -1.5

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

Cam Schlittler couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season, allowing zero earned runs with just three total baserunners and 15 strikeouts across two road outings. He’s supported by a rested bullpen that ranks first in FIP, while the offense is rolling with 5+ runs scored in five straight games. They’ve also dominated A’s starter Aaron Civale, posting a 1.095 OPS in 59 combined at-bats — plus, all seven of the Yankees' wins have come by at least two runs.

More MLB best bets for today

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Man, if the Dodgers offense had been this hot the last time they were in Toronto, the series would not have gone seven games. But then I suppose we would’ve been robbed of all that amazing drama.

Coming into the middle game of the Blue Jays series, the Dodgers have scored eight or more runs in every game of this first road trip of the season.

On Tuesday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto returns to the mound where he last stood as a World Series champion. Dodger fans remember his heroics, going six innings in Game 6 and then pitching the Dodgers to the championship by handling extra innings duties just a day later. Overall, Yamamoto had an incredible 1.02 ERA against the Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series. The team is looking for both Yamamoto and the offense to continue their dominance.

Will Smith returns to the lineup after having two days in a row off to rest his legs. Dalton Rushing has filled in splendidly, going 5-for-7 with including three home runs.

That hot offense will face Kevin Gausman, who so far this season has a miniscule 0.75 ERA with 21 strikeouts over just 12 innings. Starter Max Scherzer lasted just two innings in Monday’s game, so the Blue Jays will be hoping for a lot of length out of Gausman. It will be interesting to see which one of these factions wins out. Yamamoto famously doesn’t get a lot of run support.

Yamamoto vs Gausman is a replay of Games 2 and 6 of the 2025 World Series.

In fairness to the Blue Jays, half of the team has been sidelined by the flu, and quite a few more are injured, so they are definitely not playing with a full tank of gas. Still, it is fun to watch this high powered and highly paid offense do what it is supposed to do.

So, apply all of the normal thoughts to this game – Dodgers have scored so many for the last four games they are due for no offense, especially since Yamamoto is pitching. Regardless hopefully it will be an impressive outing by both pitchers, as the last four Dodger games have been blowouts.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Blue Jays
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre, Toronto
• Time: 4:07 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, TBS
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

It’s my first regular season gamethread of the year. We’ve made it! Last week’s Tuesday was an off day, so it’s the first Tuesday game of the year. Honored to be back.

Now, we will all be watching this one from the comfort of our homes and, let’s be honest, offices. But if you made the poor decision to go to Progressive Field in downtown Cleveland, you’re going to get temps in the 30s in what will be a very uncomfortable baseball game. I don’t know why you’d buy a ticket to see any Great Lakes sports team in early April, because whether it’s Detroit or Chicago or Cleveland this is what you might get.

Noah Cameron will take the mound for Kansas City, with Jensen getting catching duties. Gavin Williams will be taking the mound for Cleveland.

Royals 4/7 lineup

Guardians 4/7 lineup

Also, side note—do you think the Guardians reached out to Marvel to see if they could snag the @Guardians username for the Guardians of the Galaxy Twitter account? They barely post. Kind of lame the Guardians had to grab the @CleGuardians username, but “kind of lame” is an apt description for the club, so. Maybe it matches up.

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The Tony Vitello era careened off the tracks before it ever truly got started, leaving the San Francisco Giants with a 3-8 record and in desperate need of a win as they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. 

Christopher Sanchez takes the mound for the visitors, while Robbie Ray gets the nod for the home team. 

My Phillies vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 7 are targeting San Francisco to get back on track at a good price in a low-scoring contest.

Who will win Phillies vs Giants today: Giants (+132)

The Philadelphia Phillies have been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Cristopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been unusually hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate).

For as bad as the San Francisco Giants have been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.

COVERS INTEL: Ray has found success against Philadelphia’s lineup in the past, holding their projected lineup to 20-for-87 (.230) with 30 strikeouts.

Phillies vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-105)

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69) but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Phillies vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia -156 | San Francisco +132
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | San Francisco +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7

Phillies vs Giants trend

Philadelphia has hit the Under in 44 of its last 79 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Giants.

How to watch Phillies vs Giants and game info

Phillies vs Giants latest injuries

Phillies vs Giants weather

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The latest news on your Houston Astros and from around MLB:

The Astros had a plan for yesterday’s game, a game that would have been started by Hunter Brown had he not been injured. The plan didn’t seem like a good one, and it was executed even worse:

The most damning information in this article would be these:

Houston’s coaching staff intended to deploy two pitchers against the Colorado Rockies: Weiss and a 27-year-old right-hander named Cody Bolton. Neither right-hander is stretched out beyond 65 or so pitches, but the team hoped piggybacking them could cover 27 outs and conserve an overworked group of relievers.

Weiss is still learning the nuances of relieving and being ready at any moment of a game. Before this season, he had not made a professional relief appearance since 2023. Weiss sported a 3.16 ERA across 46 starts during the past two KBO seasons.

If Weiss was going to pitch Monday regardless of his role, logic suggested starting him for no other reason than allowing him to maintain his routine. That Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller tabbed Bolton, and not Weiss, to start the game seemed curious. Bolton had never started a major-league game, but had made 35 relief appearances. He finished Houston’s sixth game of the season with three scoreless innings.

With a 3×5 performance, Jose Altuve picked up career hit 2400. (and 2401 and 2402).

Cam Smith’s 462-foot HR was the ninth longest in Astros history. Here are the Top 8:

The Astros will go forward with plans for a 6-man rotation starting April 10:

Cody Bolton stayed in the game after taking a laser to the back in the first inning. The Astros sent him for imaging after the game as a precaution.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good:

Do the Angels have an ace in Jose Soriano?

This hasn’t happened in over 30 years!

I’m willing to bet Jung Hoo Lee has had worse job requirements:

She’s a lefty!

The Nationals hit 3 eighth inning HRs to take the lead on the Cardinals. (Spoiler Alert: Nats won.)

Cal Raleigh vs Jacob deGrom. 12 pitches. Epic Battle. But in the end, there can be only one:

Willson Contreras vs Brandon Woodruff. The rivalry you didn’t know you needed, until now.

Contreras later came in spikes up on a slide into 2nd:

Contreras was still hot after the game:

Brewers’ Christian Yelich essentially called Contreras act tired (start 2:22):

Woodruff called Contreras’ actions a big act:

Max Scherzer only lasted 2 innings yesterday before he removed due to forearm discomfort, but Blue Jays think he will make his next start.

This is terrific accidental comedy. The word anos without the tilde above the “n” doesn’t mean years, it means something very, very different. Something dead center of where you sit down. But Happy Birthday!

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox face off in the second game of a three-game set at Fenway Park on Tuesday night.

Milwaukee took the series opener, and my Brewers vs. Red Sox predictions are backing the visitors to win again behind a strong effort from Jacob Misiorowski.

Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague showdown on April 7.

Who will win Brewers vs Red Sox today: Brewers moneyline (+136)

The 2-8 Boston Red Sox are favored because ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound, but the difference in the starters isn't as big as you might think. 

Milwaukee Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski has allowed three runs on six hits with 18 strikeouts through 11 innings. The analytics indicate those numbers are sustainable with the hard-throwing 24-year-old allowing an xBA of .167. 

Milwaukee has a big edge with its lineup ranked third in the majors in OPS (.813) and second in runs per game (6.80).

With the Brewers boasting an 8-2 record, they have value as road dogs. 

COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski is in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%). Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and dead-last in whiff rate (33.3%).

Brewers vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-110)

Crochet pitched to a sparkling 2.59 ERA in 32 starts last year. He's coming off an ugly start, but that was against a Houston team that usually crushes lefties.

The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up should bounce back with a better performance at home.

Misiorowski and a strong Milwaukee bullpen will also shut down a Boston lineup that averages just 3.60 runs per game with an OPS of .682. 

Misiorowski struggles with control at times, but the Red Sox are just 26th in walk rate and will chase pitches outside the strike zone.

Brewers vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Milwaukee +138 | Boston -144
• Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-163) | Boston -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+133) | Under 7.5 (-138)

Brewers vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have gone Under their team total in 48 of their last 78 games at home (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Brewers vs Red Sox and game info

Brewers vs Red Sox latest injuries

Brewers vs Red Sox weather

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Monday night’s game between the Brewers and Red Sox got chippy out of nowhere.

With two runners on and no outs, Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras stepped to the plate against veteran starter Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff’s first pitch was a high-and-tight sinker just a couple of inches inside. Contreras, known for crowding the strike zone, couldn’t get his hands away in time.

It wasn’t immediately clear whether Contreras was actually hit by the pitch, so Milwaukee elected to challenge the ruling on the field. Replay evidence wasn’t strong enough to overturn the call, so Contreras was awarded first base.

MLB.com reporter Adam McCalvy later asked Brewers catcher William Contreras, Willson’s younger brother, whether or not he thought the pitch actually hit the elder Contreras:

Wm. Contreras:“They said it hit him, so it’s a hit-by-pitch.”

McCalvy:From (your) crouch at home plate, did (you) hear anything?

Wm. Contreras:“No.”

Take a look for yourself:

Contreras was irate, slowly walking down the first base line while shouting at Woodruff. He didn’t stop upon reaching the bag, with two Red Sox coaches and first base umpire John Tumpane getting in front of Contreras to try and calm him down.

The next batter was cleanup hitter Wilyer Abreu, who hit a grounder to second baseman Brice Turang for a potential double play ball. Turang flipped the ball to shortstop David Hamilton, who was covering second. As Hamilton tried to turn the double play, Contreras came in with his spikes up, ripping up his pant leg and leaving him doubled over in pain.

Contreras explained his reaction in a postgame interview.

“It’s the 24th time (the Brewers) have hit me in my career. It’s the sixth time that (Brandon Woodruff) has hit me, and they always say, ‘I’m not trying to hit you.’ That gets old. So next time they hit me again, I’m going to take one of them out. That’s a message.”

It’s pretty clear what Contreras is getting at. He thinks the Brewers are doing this on purpose. That’s… a pretty serious claim, one that naturally leads to a question:

Are the Brewers doing this on purpose?

First, let’s start with a few simpler questions.

Does Willson Contreras get hit a lot?

Contreras, a lifelong National League player until this season, has ranked in the top 10 in the NL in hit-by-pitches in each of the last six seasons.

What about on a per-game basis?

Contreras has played 1,089 career Major League Baseball games, totaling 4,318 plate appearances. He’s been hit by 131 pitches. In other words, Contreras has been hit by a pitch in about 12% of the games he’s played in.

Since 2018, hit-by-pitch rates have been rising. The average batter now gets plunked 10 times per 1,000 plate appearances, or 1%. Contreras has been plunked 131 times in 4,318 plate appearances, or roughly 3%.

So yes, he gets hit by pitches a lot — three times as much as the average player.

Contreras is also widely considered to be a player who “crowds the plate.” He stands very close to the plate, so pitches that might not hit someone with a more open stance are more likely to hit him.

Does Woodruff hit a lot of batters?

Brandon Woodruff has hit 33 batters over 755 2/3 career innings pitched. Per Baseball Reference, pitchers average about 0.04 hit batters per inning. 33 divided by 755 2/3 works out to 0.044 hit batters per inning, or just slightly more than average.

It’s worth noting that four of the six Woodruff v. Contreras hit-by-pitches have come on sinkers, while the other two have come on fastballs. Both pitches are characterized by arm-side run, which means they break in on right-handed batters. If Woodruff misses with a sinker a couple of inches off the plate, he’s more likely to hit Contreras than he is the average batter. As you can see on the scatter plot of all six hit-by-pitches, only one of them is an egregious miss.

To quote Bob Uecker, these all look like he tried the corner and missed.

Does Contreras get hit by pitches more when facing the Brewers?

Contreras has been hit 24 times in 468 career plate appearances against the Brewers, which works out to 5.1% of the time. So, also yes. Here’s the pitch chart of every Contreras hit-by-pitch against Milwaukee:

The vast majority of these pitches are sinkers or four-seam fastballs, which isn’t a coincidence. The Brewers are a smart organization. The conventional approach against a hitter who crowds the plate is to establish the inner half early by throwing hard pitches that run in on the hands, forcing the hitter to back off the plate while creating weak contact — jam shots, broken bats, etc. When you’re consistently attacking inside with pitches that have arm-side run, misses tend to come further in than intended.

I also want to point out that none of these pitches are at the head (dirty, potentially intentional) or feet (more respectful, but still potentially intentional). All of these pitches — save for that Devin Williams changeup, which just looks like a miss — follow the pattern that you would expect when a pitcher is attacking Contreras. Tried the corner and missed.

So, are these hit-by-pitches intentional, as Contreras implies?

Probably not, no. But I did just say the Brewers are a smart organization, and it would be very smart of the Brewers to disguise their malicious beanings of Contreras to avoid repercussions.

I don’t get paid enough to break down every career Contreras vs. Brewers hit-by-pitch, so let’s look at every Contreras vs. Woodruff hit by pitch:

Contreras v. Woodruff: A Brief Beef History

Twitter has everything, including a video of every time Woodruff has drilled Contreras:

HBP #1: The catcher sets up on the inside corner, Woodruff misses his spot by a few inches, Contreras is in on the plate and gets hit in the elbow. Verdict: Unintentional.

HBP #2: Contreras is off the plate a bit more; it looks like the ball just gets away from Woody. The catcher sets up low and inside, but he misses high and inside. If the Brewers were trying to bean Contreras, they probably would have set up high and inside to provide more plausible deniability. Verdict: Unintentional.

HPB #3: Contreras is in on the plate, the catcher sets up high and inside, Woodruff’s pitch comes in at the height of the catcher’s glove but misses the plate by a couple of inches, Contreras stands there and takes it off the elbow guard. If Contreras had tried to get out of the way at all, it wouldn’t have hit him. That’s not a bad thing; the smart thing to do as a baseball player is to take the free base, but it also provides more evidence that this hit-by-pitch was, in fact, unintentional.

HBP #4: Contreras’ elbow is basically on the plate, and the pitch is close enough that he swings at it. Verdict: Unintentional.

HBP #5: It’s a little hard to tell because of the angle this was filmed at, but it doesn’t appear that Contreras is egregiously close to the plate. However, thanks to Statcast, you can tell that the ball looks to be right off the edge of the batter’s box when it hit him. Verdict: Unintentional.

Conclusion

The Brewers do not have a vendetta against Willson Contreras. They are not trying to intentionally injure the older brother of their All-Star catcher. They are trying to win baseball games.

The Diamondbacks’ first ten games have been remarkably undefinitive as far as answering any questions one might have had about the team. Pitchers that have been expected to be good have been bad and vice versa. Hitters who were expected to be bad have been worse, and hitters that were expected to be. It all shakes out to a 5-5 record ten games in. But given that all three series were against contenders (and the favorite to win it all) I can’t be too terribly upset. Some areas of concern nevertheless.

In New York, the Mets find themselves in three way tie for first place with the Phillies and Marlins, with the Braves a mere half game behind. They haven’t had a particularly difficult strength of schedule so far, however, having faced the Pirates, Cardinals, and Giants. Honestly, with that schedule, only being 6-4 is something of a disappointment for a team that is built to be a real contender.

Game 1 — 4/7, 1:10 PM — Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA/115 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.35 ERA/94 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP)

Gallen is perhaps the epitome of the Diamondbacks season thus far. He pitched well for three innings on Opening Day, then gave up a big inning. In his second start, he followed it up with a six inning, four hit scoreless outing. There is also the quality of opponent to consider as well. The blow up was against the most stacked team since I turned on force trades on MLB 2k, and the second start was merely against a good team. One thing that does stand out is the near complete lack of strikeouts so far. He’s only recorded four in two starts/10 IP.

A big free agent acquisition for the Mets, Peralta hasn’t made the best first impression so far. His season has mirrored Gallen’s for the most part, actually, but giving up four runs in five innings to the Dodgers would be understandable, four runs to the Pirates is less so. He followed it up with a one run performance against the Cardinals, so it’s in the process of balancing out. Unlike Gallen, though, the strike out pitch is working for Peralta, as he has racked up seven in both starts so far.

Game 2 — 4/8, 1:10 PM — Ryne Nelson (0-1, 5.79 ERA/72 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP) vs. David Peterson (0-1, 4.66 ERA/89 ERA+, 1.96 WHIP)

Ryne Nelson was passed over for the Opening Day start. Ryne Nelson has done nothing to make Lovullo and Hazen regret that decision since. In both of his starts so far he has pitched 4 2/3 inning. The first start against the Dodgers he gave up four runs. His second start… a whopping second. Sure, he wasn’t helped at all by some truly crappy defense behind him, but he didn’t help himself either. It was an ugly game, and he shouldered at least some of the blame for it. He’ll be looking for a bounce back in this series, but it won’t be a soft landing to make it happen.

David Peterson was a first round draft pick for the Mets way back in 2017, and while he’s been a feature of the Mets rotation since he joined the big league club back in 2020, he’s never consistently lived up to that draft selection. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this season he’s had two starts. One was a scoreless outing against Pittsburgh, but the Giants lit him up for six runs in the other start. Only difference between everyone else I’ve mentioned here is that he had his starts backwards. Good start first, bad start second. Other than that, he fits right in.

Game 3 — 4/8, 4:10 PM — Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Nolan McLean (1-0, 2.61 ERA/157 ERA+, 0.87 WHIP)

Today I learned that you can’t have an ERA+ if you haven’t given up a run. The Diamondbacks erstwhile ace takes the mound in the series finale. I’m not sure if it’s his noticably leaner physique, still amped up from the World Baseball Classic, or just finally healthy, but this version of Eduardo Rodriguez is the best case scenario from him. He pitched five scoreless against the Dodgers, and then he leveled it up with seven scoreless against the Braves. His strikeouts are lower than normal, but so are his walks, so his SO/BB is 2.67 compared to his career at 2.85. I don’t know how long this is going to continue, but it sure is fun in the meantime.

McLean was a mid season callup for the Mets and pitched incredibly well in the eight starts he got in. He had an ERA+ of 197, giving up 13 runs in 48 innings pitched. He isn’t quite as dominate so far this season, but he is still holding his own and then some. Look for a start of five innings and two earned runs from the young righty.

Conclusion

I like the Diamondbacks odds this series. Gallen pitched very well in NYC last season, and I think he’ll continue where he left off against the Tigers. E-rod might not continue his scoreless streak, but there’s no reason to think that he isn’t going to continue pitching well anyway. Nelson is a bit of a concern, though. On the flip side, the offense is catching a couple of these pitchers at the right time, and maybe some of our bigger hitters can use the opportunity to get right. Either way, I think the Dbacks take the series 2-1.

After the team’s first full week, plus a little, the Royals are 5-5. That’s not where they want to be, but there are some positive takeaways from that first week. The losses still count, but they were never going to go 162-0. Even the most optimistic Royals fan can’t look at this team and expect them to even win 100. So the important thing is that, when they take a loss, they get something from it to help them win more games later.

The Royals haven’t been swept yet

Like the header says, the Royals have yet to lose every game in a series. More than that, they have yet to even lose three in a row, while they do have a modest three-game winning streak.

Sure, it’s a low bar to clear, but here’s a list of teams that haven’t managed to clear it:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Detroit Tigers
• Baltimore Orioles
• Athletics
• Boston Red Sox
• Chicago White Sox
• Texas Rangers
• Washington Nationals
• San Francisco Giants
• Colorado Rockies

Do you think the Tigers have given up on their season over a sweep? Have the Red Sox? Of course not. The Blue Jays got swept by the WHITE SOX.* But they’re not going to give in, either. And the Royals have, by at least one metric, played better than all of them. 

*Yes, I am aware that the White Sox aren’t as bad this year as the last couple, but they’re still not good.

The Royals have played stiff competition

There may have been reason to think the Royals had a soft-ish schedule to start the season to begin the year, but two weeks into the season, it looks like that may not have been the case. 

While the team has lost two of their series, the Brewers are tied for the best record in baseball. Atlanta is a couple of losses behind them, but has been unlucky by two losses, according to run differentials. The Royals are 2-4 against two of the best teams currently going in the sport. They took out the division-leading Guardians in their opener, too.

They could have won the Atlanta series if Carlos Estévez had looked like himself. They scored the same number of runs against the Brewers as they allowed. They could have easily won on Sunday if any of Kris Bubic, Matt Strahm, or Lucas Erceg had pitched as well as we know they are capable of. Or even if they had managed to get a timely hit from Bobby Witt Jr. instead of a strikeout. They took out the division-leading Guardians in their opener. Speaking of the offense… 

The outfield is hitting

Royals outfielders are collectively hitting .277/.354/.406, for a wRC+ of 122, eighth-best in baseball. Remember, that was our biggest question for the offense coming in. We all said if they were hitting, the sky was the limit. Well, they are.

Jac Caglianone looked like one of the best hitters in the sport for the first few games, and he’s still not even elevating yet. He had a “bad weekend” against the Brewers that still saw him reach base four times. Isaac Collins appears to have picked up almost exactly where he left off last season – minus the cold stretch to close out the year. And we all know what Kyle Isbel has been doing; he looks like an MVP. Maybe none of them will play quite that well for the entire season, but if we can even see them do it in stretches, the offense should ultimately be fine. Assuming we aren’t ready to give up on the stars.

Maikel Garcia seems to have found another gear. To begin the season, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have been the biggest problems in the Royals’ lineup. It just so happens they’re batting second and third, so they’re failing in the biggest spots. But is anyone REALLY concerned about them? They are now nearly famous for their slow starts; March and April are by far their worst career monthly splits. It would be nice if they could hit earlier, but if they’re the only problem in April, you’ve got to feel good about where the season is going to end up.

Salvador Perez is perhaps the biggest concern, but not in any way that hasn’t been true since last year. He’s miscast as the cleanup hitter but could be a stud in the six-spot. If Collins and Caglianone keep hitting, that could become a reality sooner rather than later.

The bullpen has flashed

The relief corps has been scary for KC this year; they have a 6.17 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. But they also have the 15th-best xERA at 3.99, and pretty much every other advanced metric says they’re pitching better than their numbers to some degree or another. 

I think it’s reasonable to argue that the bullpen is probably the weakest position group the Royals have this year, but every single reliever who has appeared for KC has at least one really impressive appearance. And you can also throw out a lot of their work as irrelevant to the team’s future. The six runs given up by Estévez aren’t representative, nor are the final three innings of relief in last Wednesday’s mud bowl. That pretty much leaves Erceg and Strahm from Sunday and Cruz’s appearance on Thursday as the problem points.

Unfortunately, that means that there is no one in the “circle of trust” right now who can nearly guarantee a clean inning. But, because every single reliever – minus the IL-bound Estévez – has had at least one really solid relief appearance, it’s easy to see how any or maybe even all of them could be in the circle of trust as the season exits some of this early-year weirdness.

And if any of them stop showing flashes, Mason Black, Mitch Spence, Eric Cerantola, and Dennis Colleran Jr. all look like guys who could pitch some innings out of the bullpen and help the team out. To say nothing of Luinder Avila, who looked great in the bullpen last year, something less than great in his first career MLB start, and was not immediately demoted following that start – meaning he’s likely now in the bullpen, too, with Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the IL over the weekend.

The 2026 Royals are far from a perfect club. Everything has not yet completely come together. But more than a week into the season, you can already see the team beginning to become the shape we had all hoped they might. The season could yet be derailed in any number of ways, but for now, some of the hope is paying off, and there’s as much reason to think that will continue to be true as ever.

So, we’re just over 10 games into the season for the Atlanta Braves and the on-paper results have been encouraging — even if the on-field results have the Braves just one game over .500 as they look to avoid dipping below that mark as they deal with the seemingly impossible task of winning baseball games in the state of California.

Let’s start with the good, which is that the pitching has been outstanding so far. Through 11 games, Atlanta’s pitching staff has an ERA of 2.23 (57 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.29 (82 FIP-). If I had to predict it, I’d imagine that the ERA will move closer to the FIP as the season progresses but as long as both the ERA- and FIP- stay well below 100, Atlanta is on track to be much improved in the pitching department. There’s plenty of room to improve on last season, which is when they finished with an ERA of 4.36 (103 ERA-) and a FIP of 4.20 (103 FIP-) and assuming that what we’re currently seeing from Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López is real, that improvement should be on its way.

In fact, I’d say that the best early story so far has been Bryce Elder’s apparent improvement. Of course he’s not going to carry a 0.00 ERA over the course of this entire season and he’s going to have a rough day eventually (everybody has rough days — just look at what happened to Chris Sale last night. Yikes!) but the fact that he’s carried his strong end-of-season form from 2025 over into 2026 is certainly encouraging to see. Maybe there’s something to getting advice from Greg Maddux, himself.

The bullpen (outside of Joel Payamps) has been chugging along just fine as well and they’ve been helped by performances from Osvaldo Bido and Martín Pérez being able to go out there and eat plenty of innings when called upon. Having long relief like that could go a long way towards preserving the rest of the bullpen and helping to ensure that we don’t see such a revolving door for this staff like we did in 2025 when the Braves set records for the sheer number of guys they were sending out there to pitch.

Can things get better? Of course. Chris Sale still hasn’t really gotten it going just yet, the fifth spot of the rotation is still in a bit of flux and I already mentioned Joel Payamps and his tough start to the season right now (a 20.16 xERA is jarring to see, early or not). Still, it’s encouraging and also lends a tiny bit of credence to my personal theory that good health alone would give this pitching staff a huge boost. As long as guys continue going out there, tis pitching staff should be fine.

The staff has also benefited from getting some great defense behind them as well, which is always encouraging to see. Being tough to score on (whether it’s via lockdown pitching or lights-out defense) can go a long way towards making this team a serious candidate to play some important baseball games once we get into September and October.

Now we get into the offense, which is doing “fine” on paper but as we all know, “fine” has never ben the standard for the bats around here. Through 11 games so far, the Braves are hitting .249/.319/.414 as a unit with a .732 OPS, a .165 Isolated Power number and 106 wRC+. That number has them tied for 10th in all of baseball with the Pittsburgh Pirates — and it’s honestly a testament to how well the rest of the Pirates are hitting that they’ve gotten that high considering that former Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has started this season looking like one of the worst hitters in baseball.

Still, as evidenced by the fact that the Braves have been scoring their runs in fits and starts, it’s something that could definitely do with improvement. They have a walk rate of 9.2 percent along with a strikeout rate of 19 percent. It’s interesting because the Dodgers have a similar BB/K split but the Dodgers are making up for it by absolutely crushing the ball to the tune of a .299/.366/.523 team slash line with .224 in Isolated Power and 149 team wRC+. If you’re going to have that type of split, you better be mashing the ball every night and that hasn’t quite been the case for the Braves so far outside of a couple of really big games.

Drake Baldwin has gotten off to an excellent start and we’ve also seen some unexpected contributions from guys like Marucio Dubón and Dominic Smith. One of those two guys was seemingly a glove-first guy and the other is a guy who came on as a non-roster invitee and made the team, so getting stuff from them has been bonus. You’d also expect that the reigning NL Rookie of the Year would be crushing it as well, as Baldwin is now taking strides to being recognized as one of the best-hitting catchers in the game right now.

The issue is that the rest of Atlanta’s stars have been scuffling right out of the gate. Matt Olson has been doing fine and Ozzie Albies has been faring okay, himself. The problem right now is that Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Austin Riley have been wandering in the wilderness to begin the season. Acuña is currently sitting on 51 wRC+ so far and that’s the high mark for this trio, which tells you just how rough it’s been for these three guys so far.

I’d imagine that we’re going to see Acuña and Riley get going at some point but I think we’re at the point now where seeing Harris struggle like this is concerning. Sure it’s early but we’ve also seen this before from Harris when it comes to starting the season off in poor fashion. He’s certainly got just as much potential to bounce back but the question is whether or not he’ll do it as quickly as Acuña or Riley should bounce back. I don’t think that anybody around here has the appetite for seeing another 70 or 80 games of Harris trying to figure it out at the plate while serving as a void of offense in the lineup. I hope he can get it together soon but if I had to say I was worried about anybody in the lineup right now, it’s Money Mike.

Now granted, we’re still only talking about 11 games — a drop in the bucket when it comes to this long, winding river of a regular season. However, there’s already been some stuff that’s worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. Can Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López Mauricio Dubón and Dominic Smith keep this up? When will the star players on this team wake up? When will we see Didier Fuentes again? Will getting their injured players back be a boon for this squad? Will the Braves win more than one (1) game in California this season? Do the new City Connects have an option for powder blue pants? Okay, maybe the last question isn’t as pressing as the rest but it’ll certainly be intriguing to see if and when we’ll get answers to these early questions.