GUARDIANS AT TIGERS: Messick vs. Montero, discussion

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 12: Angel Genao #17 of the Cleveland Guardians hits a RBI double in the seventh inning in front of Dillon Dingler #13 of the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on August 12, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The next “biggest game of the year” starts now:

Here’s the Guardians’ lineup:

Here’s the Tigers’ lineup:

Let’s go, Guardians!

GameThread: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:10 p.m.

Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Báez (28) bats against Cleveland Guardians during the second inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co

Detroit Tigers (59-61) vs. Cleveland Guardians (59-62)

Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Comerica Park
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media:
Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Keider Montero (8-7, 3.38 ERA) vs. LHP Parker Messick (9-6, 2.57 ERA)

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Aaron Nola vs. corn: Phillies vs. Twins series preview

Sep 4, 2019; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks to their mostly poor play since the All-Star break, the Phillies currently find themselves out of a playoff spot. While there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played, it certainly isn’t early anymore.

The last two opponents they’ve faced have been mediocre, but that didn’t stop the Phillies from dropping both series. They’ll move on to play another mediocrity in the Twins, who may be without their best offensive player in Byron Buxton (currently on the IL, but he is close to a return) and best pitcher in Joe Ryan. Then again, mediocrity would be a step up from what we’ve seen from the Phillies in recent weeks.

The series will be a bit wacky with Thursday night’s opener being the Field of Dreams game (hope you have Netflix), and we’ll have yet another Friday night without a game. Then again, this entire season has been a little wacky for the Phils, so they should be used to it.

Opposition research: Kody Clemens

I understand why the Phillies sold Kody Clemens to the Twins in early 2025. They had a glut of lefthanded hitting outfielders, and while he had been a nice enough bench piece, you never really got a “they have to give this guy a chance to play every day” vibe from him.

He put together a solid season for the Twins in 2025, serving as a utility player who mostly played against righthanded pitching. He wasn’t spectacular, but he was better than Max Kepler who the Phillies handed the left field job to last year.

This season, he’s been an everyday player, and while his on-base percentage is unideal (.280) he’s got a solid .747 OPS with 20 home runs. He also hit an “ultimate grand slam” this year. (Matt Strahm has had a tough time of it this season.)

He’d still be an awkward fit in the Phillies’ outfield alongside fellow lefties Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford, but it’s frustrating to see a player they basically gave away succeeding elsewhere.

Hating on the Twins

After winning World Series titles in 1987 and 1991, it has been a rough few decades for the Twins. Since 1991, they’ve won a total of two playoff series and haven’t gotten past the ALCS. For a while there, they couldn’t even win a single playoff game, dropping 18 in a row.

The Twins rarely sign big free agents, and one of their most notable signings was Carlos Correa, who only chose them because he failed a physical with two other teams. Their current franchise player is Byron Buxton who has been really adamant about staying with the Twins, perhaps because anyone trading for him would likely become enraged when he takes his annual trip to the Injured List.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: Roberto Alomar tied Paul Molitor’s 12 hits in the 1993 World Series. MG77 was correct.

This week’s question: The Phillies defeated the Twins in the 2025 regular series finale by a 2-1 score in ten innings. Who drove in the winning run via a sacrifice fly?

Additional thought about the series

John Stolnis went into more detail about Thursday’s Field of Dreams game, but I’m just hoping the Phillies can play non- embarrassing baseball in this showcase. Maybe they can avoid any horrid fielding mistakes, and Aaron Nola can somehow limit his home runs allowed to one or fewer.

The Twins have Josh Bell on their roster, and we think of him as a Phillie-killer, but they’ve actually kept him in check in recent seasons. Over the past two seasons, he’s batting just .190 with two home runs against them in 23 games. He did take Nola deep once last season, but these days, only hitting one home run off of Nola is probably below average.

Game Thread: Reds (57-62) at White Sox (62-57)

Aug 9, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher Davis Martin (65) delivers the ball during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
The Sox need Good Davis Martin to make an appearance today. | (Matt Marton/IMAGN IMAGES)

Luis Castillo did his best executioner impression last night, slicing up his old squad, and now Chicago heads into the rubber match with a chance to boot the Reds out of town licking their wounds. For that to happen, though, the Sox need Davis Martin to show up as someone other than the batting practice pitcher he’s been lately.

Martin’s season has taken a pretty ugly turn since June, and the recent numbers aren’t doing him any favors. Over his last seven starts, he owns a 7.80 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, and his outing in Boston was especially brutal. Martin was tagged for nine runs over five innings in the 14-2 loss, with the White Sox later saying he had been tipping pitches. Hopefully that explains at least some of the carnage, because Chicago desperately needs him to get back on track. With Castillo giving the bullpen a much-needed breather by tossing seven scoreless innings last night, Martin’s job today is simple: keep the Reds from putting up a crooked number early and give the offense a chance.

Cincinnati counters with lefthander Andrew Abbott, who enters the afternoon 6-7 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers certainly aren’t terrifying, so this feels like an opportunity for the Sox offense to build on last night rather than making another opposing pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate. Abbott has been hittable, and Chicago needs to make him work, get traffic on the bases and — this is always the important part — actually do something with it.

Here’s how Will Venable will send them out against Abbott:

This is how the Reds will line up versus Martin:

Last night belonged to Castillo. Today, the spotlight shifts to Martin. A solid outing would go a long way toward quieting some concerns about his miserable pitching of late, and more importantly, it would give the South Siders a chance to take two of three from Cincinnati. Win the rubber match, take the series and move along. Sounds easy enough, right?

First pitch has been moved up an hour to 12:10 p.m. CDT due to weather. The game will be televised on CHSN and can be heard on ESPN Chicago 1000.

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Cubs vs Nationals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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The Chicago Cubs put on an absolute show yesterday.

Following a 12-run outburst, Kevin Gausman is in the perfect spot against the Washington Nationals to help the blue and white win their fourth straight, so we're running back Chicago on the moneyline (-138 at Polymarket) as part of my Cubs vs. Nationals predictions.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 13, and sweep the board once more.

Who will win Cubs vs Nationals today: Cubs moneyline (-142)

The Chicago Cubs' offense is simply on another level right now. They've scored 30 runs across their last three games and own the highest wRC+ in baseball as a result. In other words, they've been pretty unstoppable.

Enter Washington Nationals starter Cade Cavalli, who's had issues limiting the long ball this season. Over his last five starts, he's surrendered seven homers, and his 40.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the top 20 among qualified starters.

Cavalli's going to play right into the Cubs' power stroke, so expect more traffic on the base paths for Chicago tonight.

I'd play this one up to -150. 

Looking for more plays? Tap into Colby Marchio's MLB moneyline picks for Thursday.

Covers COVERS INTEL:Kevin Gausman's 3.84 xERA is among the best of his career, and he's finding his home in Chicago quite quickly following his trade from the Blue Jays. In his lone start with the Cubs, Gausman tied a season-high seven innings, allowing just two earned runs and four strikeouts. 

Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (-116)

With the Cubs' offense going up against Cavalli, who's prone to the long ball, the Over is the only play today. Not only has the ball been flying off his arm, but Nationals Park is home to the 10th-most homers and third-highest xwOBAcon this year.

Look for Pete Crow-Armstrong to also continue his blistering pace in the NL MVP odds; he's now recorded 12 hits (three homers) over his last eight games.

Cubs vs Nationals home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+365)

Crow-Armstrong enters today cruising toward the NL MVP, owning an elite 12.3% barrel rate, a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a .473 xSLG. His 8.8% solid contact rate is not only a career high, but reflects the offseason adjustments he's made to get to this spot. 

Meanwhile, Cavalli relies heavily on a 97 MPH four-seam fastball, a pitch that PCA has been able to eat up this season. Adding to the case are PCA’s splits — he’s hit 20 of his 27 homers against righties this season.

More home run prediction for Thursday can be found with our resident expert Josh Inglis.

Dustin Saracini's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 3-5, -2.26 units
  • Over/Under bets: 4-4, -0.80 units

Cubs vs Nationals weather

The weather will be perfect for baseball tonight, with temperatures reaching 89F prior to first pitch, giving the ball a little extra air under it.

Cubs vs Nationals odds

  • Moneyline: Cubs (-142) | Nationals (+133)
  • Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+122) | Nationals +1.5 (-127)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-116) | Under 8.5 (+108)

Cubs vs Nationals trend

I'm loving the Over tonight, which is 6-0-1 in the Cubs' last seven games as a road favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Nationals.

How to watch Cubs vs Nationals and game info

LocationNationals Park, Washington, D.C.
DateThursday, August 13, 2026
First pitch4:05 p.m. ET
TVMARQ, Nationals.TV
Cubs starting pitcherKevin Gausman
(6-10, 4.29 ERA)
Nationals starting pitcherCade Cavalli
(9-5, 3.27 ERA)

Cubs vs Nationals latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Ex-Yankees prospect Rob Refsnyder retires at 35 rather than sign with contender

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows A New York Yankees player in a black helmet and uniform with eye black runs on the field, Image 2 shows Seattle Mariners designated hitter Rob Refsnyder reacting after hitting a two-run home run
Refsnyder retires

A former Yankee prospect is calling it a career.

Rob Refsynder, 35, spent three seasons with the Yankees from 2015-2017 and signed a one-year deal worth $6.25 million with the Mariners last offseason. 

A career-worst season in Seattle led to him being released, but rather than sign elsewhere, he opted to pack his bags and end his career early.

Robert Refsnyder played only three seasons with the Yankees but became very useful as a short-side platoon specalist. Getty Images

The righty bat was “real close” to a deal with the Astros before deciding to retire, according to MLB.com.

Refsynder graded out as high as the team’s No. 7 prospect in 2015 alongside other high-end talent that came from the Yankees’ system, as Luis Severino was their top prospect at the time, followed by future three-time MVP Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo, Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. 

He played in 94 games for the Yankees, accumulating just 17 RBIs and two home runs for the Bronx Bombers while failing to leave his mark.

Refsnyder was traded to the division rival Toronto Blue Jays during the 2017 season and was a useful player for the next nine years as he bounced between AL East rivals.

His best seasons came as a utility player for the Red Sox spanning four seasons.

Refsnyder hit .307 in 2022 and blasted a career-high 11 home runs to support a .283 AVG in 2024. 

Seattle Mariners designated hitter Rob Refsnyder reacts after hitting a two-run home run during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. William Liang-Imagn Images

Best known for being a short-side platoon specialist, Refsynder hit .265 with a .787 OPS against lefty pitching in his career, giving teams an incredible value proposition on top of his positional versatility. 

The Mariners hoped he could continue to mash lefties, but Refsynder was instead the midst of a career-worst season in Seattle, hitting .140. 

Rob Refsnyder played some of his best baseball in four seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Getty Images

He previously floated the idea of retirement and the hope of spending more time with his family back in 2024. 

Refsynder is married to his longtime partner, Monica, who swam at the University of Arizona, and they have a son together who was born in 2021.

MLB Field of Dreams – Phillies vs. Twins prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 13

The cornfields of Dyersville, Iowa will provide the backdrop for one of baseball's most anticipated regular-season events tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies (64-58) meet the Minnesota Twins (60-62) in the Field of Dreams game. This year's event marks MLB's return to the iconic Iowa site after a three-year hiatus while a permanent stadium was constructed adjacent to the original movie field.

 

Philadelphia arrives in Iowa looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Phillies scored just one run over the final two games of their three-game series against the Cardinals. The Phillies managed just 11 hits over the last two games. Philly is 5-5 in their last ten games. Minnesota comes to Dyersville just 4-6 in their last ten games but fresh off a series win over the Orioles taking the rubber game 7-5 yesterday. Outside of yesterday’s poor outing by Zack Wheeler, the Phils have been held together of late by sound starting pitching while the Twins’ offense has been keeping them afloat in August averaging 4.8 runs per game.

 

The Phillies take the field second in the NL East, 9.5 games behind Atlanta, while the Twins sit second in the AL Central, 3.5 games behind the division-leading White Sox.

 

Although there was no Field of Dreams Game the last three seasons, the most recent edition took place on August 11, 2022, when the Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-2. That game featured three total home runs, with the Cubs getting homers from Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ while the Reds received a solo shot from Stuart Fairchild. The contest was remembered for the emotional pregame appearance of Ken Griffey Jr. and Ken Griffey Sr. emerging from the cornfield together. The inaugural 2021 Field of Dreams Game remains the event's signature moment, when the White Sox defeated the Yankees 9-8 on Tim Anderson's dramatic walk-off home run. Eight home runs were hit in the first two editions of this game in Dyersville.

 

It will no doubt be interesting to see how the ball carries at the new stadium. Tonight’s starter for Philadelphia, veteran right-hander Aaron Nola (3-9, 5.47 ERA), has been extremely generous to opposing hitters this season allowing 29 home runs over his 24 starts this season. who has endured an unusually difficult season by his standards. Minnesota counters with Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.76 ERA). The model of consistency, the righthander has allowed three or fewer runs in all but one of his last ten starts. Bradley is not immune to giving up the long ball, though, having allowed 17 home runs in 23 starts this season.

 

Under the lights, surrounded by Iowa cornfields and baseball nostalgia, MLB's return to the Field of Dreams promises another memorable chapter in one of the sport's most unique traditions.

 

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Phillies vs. Twins

 

  • Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
  • Time: 7:30PM EST
  • Site: Field of Dreams
  • City: Dyersville, Iowa
  • Network/Streaming: Netflix

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Phillies vs. Twins – August 13

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies (-103), Minnesota Twins (-104)
  • Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+154), Twins +1.5 (-187)
  • Total: 8.5 runs

 

Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Phillies vs. Twins for August 13

  • Phillies: Aaron Nola
    Season Totals: 125.0 IP, 3-9, 5.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 129K, 43 BB
  • Twins: Taj Bradley
    Season Totals: 131.2 IP, 9-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 148K, 55 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Phillies vs. Twins

  • Josh Bell is just 8-41 in his career against Aaron Nola but has gone yard against him 3 times
  • Kyle Schwarber has homered and walked in his only 2 ABs against Taj Bradley
  • Kody Clemens is hitting .128 in August (5-39)
  • Brooks Lee has collected 2 hits in each of his last 4 games (8-17)
  • Bryce Harper has 1 hit but has walked 10 times in his last 4 games (1-9)
  • Luis Arraez is 8-40 since being traded to Philadelphia
  • JT Realmuto was 0-7 in the series against the Cardinals
  • Alec Bohm has hit safely in 3 straight games (5-10)

 

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Phillies and the Twins

 

  • The Twins are 66-56 on the Run Line this season
  • The Phillies are an NL-worst 47-75 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 64 times in games involving Minnesota this season (64-50-8)
  • The OVER has cashed 53 times in games involving the Phillies this season (53-61-8)

 

Expert picks & predictions: 2026 Field of Dreams Game

 

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet for Phillies vs. Twins

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Phillies and the Twins:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Twins on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 8.5.

 

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Payton Tolle attempts to save Red Sox from demoralizing sweep

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - AUGUST 07: Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out a batter to end the sixth inning against the Athletics at Fenway Park on August 07, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images) | Getty Images

TV: NESN

First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET

It’s not time to panic yet. Regression was due, but the Red Sox are on the verge of dropping six consecutive games immediately following a nine-game winning streak. Payton Tolle is the guy the team would love to see put the ballclub back on track as he takes the mound fresh off career-best 14 strikeouts against the Athletics. 

Here’s who the Red Sox will send to the plate behind him Thursday afternoon at Rogers Centre. 

The Blue Jays send the aging Max Scherzer to the hill. While he’s certainly ready for Cooperstown when he hangs up his cleats, he’s never fared well against Boston with a 5.77 ERA in 14 regular season starts against the Red Sox in his career. 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox – Andrew Abbott vs. Davis Martin

CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 6: Andrew Abbott #41 of the Cincinnati Reds walks back to the dugout during the game against the Athletics at Great American Ball Park on August 6, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated the Athletics 6-5. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Cincinnati Reds were completely shut down by the Chicago White Sox on Thursday night in Guaranteed Rate Field, foiled by their old friend Luis Castillo. The offense was miserable, the bullpen couldn’t keep it within slam range, and from start to finish things just looked like a team simply out of gas.

The beauty of baseball, though, is that there’s another chance the very next day.

Andrew Abbott toes the rubber today in the series finale opposite Chicago righty Davis Martin as the Reds look to get back in the win column and take the series. This game will go off at 1:10 PM ET today due to concerns about weather later in the afternoon, as the original start time was slated for 2:10 PM ET. Make sure you don’t accidentally miss an hour of 2026 Cincinnati Reds baseball, folks!

After all, Ke’Bryan Hayes is in the lineup!

Here’s how both clubs will line up to begin:

Today’s Lineups

REDSWHITE SOX
Elly De La Cruz – SSChase Meidroth – 2B
Sal Stewart – 1BRandal Grichuk – DH
JJ Bleday – LFMiguel Vargas – 1B
Tyler Stephenson – CBraden Montgomery – RF
Eugenio Suarez – DHBrenton Doyle – CF
Dane Myers – CFColson Montgomery – 3B
Hector Rodriguez – RFEdgar Quero – C
Matt McLain – 2BSam Antonacci – LF
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3BLuisangel Acuna – SS
Andrew Abbott – LHPDavis Martin – RHP

MLB Strikeout Props & Pitcher Best Bets for Today, Aug. 13

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It was a winning day here yesterday for +1.7 units, and there are plenty of pitcher and MLB player props on tonight's shorter slate. 

Despite a 14-strikeout performance in his last start and numbers that stack up with some of the best in baseball, Payton Tolle's K total still isn't as high as it should be. Jacob deGrom could be dealing with an innings cap, making his Over a tough climb, and Roki Sasaki might finally be turning a corner with his outs market on the rise.

These are my favorite pitcher strikeout props and MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 13.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player PickOdds
Red Sox Payton TolleOver 5.5 strikeouts -111
Rangers Jacob deGromUnder 6.5 strikeouts+101
Dodgers Roki SasakiOver 16.5 outs +101

Strikeout prop: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)

I hate backing a pitcher after a monster game, and Payton Tolle is coming off a career-best 14-strikeout outing. However, even with his 90-pitch leash, 48% of his outs since June 26 have come via the strikeout. He has the third-highest K/9 over that stretch and the fourth-best K% behind some heavy hitters in Dylan Cease and Jacob Misiorowski.

He has shown he can get to this Over even on abbreviated outings, and the Over is a perfect 6-0 on this total over his last six starts.

The Jays aren't a K-heavy team, but their strikeout rate has climbed of late, and this lineup could have five hitters with a K% of 25% or higher this month.

The juice is moving on this Over despite the projections liking the Under. This could close at -135/-140, and I'd buy it down to -120/-125.

  • Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN

Strikeout prop: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts (+101)

The Texas Rangers are keeping the lid on Jacob deGrom, and getting to seven punchouts is going to be damn hard.

The veteran right-hander might have a 15-out cap on him, as he has not gotten over that number in five straight starts. He was at just 88 pitches after five innings in his last game and didn't come back out. To me, that sounds like a blueprint for an oft-injured pitcher the Rangers need healthy if they are going to make the playoffs.

The throttle started in July, and since then, he has 29 Ks in 23 innings. However, he has gone Over this total just twice in five starts and has thrown 88, 91, 90, 97, and 80 pitches. He's going to have to be mighty efficient to get seven of his 15 outs via the K.

At plus money on the Under, the risk is low to see if he has an innings cap. I'm betting this down to -115.

  • Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ABTV, Rangers Sports Network

Pitcher out prop: Roki Sasaki Over 16.5 outs recorded (+101)

The market is moving heavily toward this Over, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closed at 17.5.

Roki Sasaki, the roller-coaster Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher, has gone four straight starts allowing two or fewer runs, which is his best four-game stretch of the season. He's a K-per-inning guy who doesn't allow many hits. Command can be an issue, but pitching on his own mound is always an advantage.

When Sasaki is on, it's a beautiful thing, and I think the market moving toward the Over, coupled with his recent form, makes this the right side at this price and down to -115. The Milwaukee Brewers offense has hit a lull and ranks in the Bottom 10 this month, which only helps.

Sasaki's arrow is pointing up, and we're taking advantage.

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Brewers.TV.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for Aug. 13

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How about another 2-1 SU day for over 10 units last night? The dingers are dinging, and the MLB player props are popping this week. Let's stay hot and get on the good side of zero for the season.

In addition to targeting a pair of bats vs. homer-prone veterans, I'm adding Jake Bauers to go deep in the nightcap against Roki Sasaki and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, Aug. 13. 

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

MLB home run props for today

Player to hit a HROdds
Red Sox Ceddanne Rafaela+550
Twins Royce Lewis+450
Brewers Jake Bauers+450
💲Today's HR parlay+20239

Home run prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela (+550)

Max Scherzer has pitched above expectations since returning to the rotation, but he is still giving up plenty of homers and has the second-worst HR/9 among MLB starters with at least 30 innings. His HR/FB rate is also near the basement of the league. The Red Sox have a great long-ball matchup, and my money is going on Ceddanne Rafaela at +550.

The price is the most appetizing thing here, with other top-end bats shorter than +350 today. Rafaela has five of his 16 homers over the last two weeks, is slugging .632 over those 14 days, and handles righties, meaning likely three plate appearances vs. Scherzer near the top of this order. 

Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras might be the higher-volume picks on a short slate, but getting more than 200 points with Rafaela is my move, and one I'd play to +450.

  • Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN

Home run prediction: Royce Lewis (+450)

It’s a small slate, but HR bettors get Aaron Nola, who has allowed the most dingers in baseball this year, at a makeshift MLB stadium with short fences and nothing but corn in the outfield. Nola is the best home-run target today, as his fall has been spectacular. He’s allowed 10 homers over his last 33 innings across six games, just took a 105-mph laser beam off his knee in his last start, and today’s setting might not help him.

The Iowa Cubs and St. Paul Saints played on this field Tuesday and ripped four combined dingers — the only extra-base hits of the game. In the other two "Field of Dreams" games, played on a different diamond but with a similar layout, there have been seven total homers.

Royce Lewis is the hottest stick in the Minny lineup. He has three homers over the last two weeks and leads the team in slugging (.667), ISO (.278), wOBA (.461), and HardHit% (47.4%). His 76.3-mph swing speed over that stretch is also a Top-25 mark in all of baseball.

Send it to the maize, Royce.

  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Netflix

Home run prediction: Jake Bauers (+450)

The Milwaukee Brewers have only two hitters in their lineup who are actually producing right now: Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio. I'm avoiding the latter today, as he's dealing with a thumb issue and has been pinch-hit for recently.

That leaves Bauers, who is 100 points longer and gets a good HR matchup against Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki. Sasaki is pitching well, but he's still giving up long balls. 

Much like Shota Imanaga earlier this week, when Sasaki does get hit, he gets hit hard — and Bauers can do damage against righties.

The 10-mph winds blowing out to his pull side are just another layer of confirmation. I'd play this to +420 today.

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 31-150, -0.37 units

Best home run combo for Aug. 13

Red Sox Ceddanne RafaelaTrade Now
+20239
Twins Royce Lewis
Brewers Jake Bauers

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: Braxton Ashcraft vs. Tyler Phillips

CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 01: Braxton Ashcraft #35 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 01, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, August 13, 2026, 1:10 p.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing in a Thursday matinee for the series finale against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park.

Getting the start for the Pirates is All-Star Braxton Ashcraft. He is coming off a frustrating game against the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start on August 6th. He gave up four hits and four earned runs in five innings of action as the team lost 5-2 at American Family Field. Now he hopes to get back on track for the Pirates as they close out the road trip.

Countering Ashcraft is Tyler Phillips, who is making his 14th start of the season. Phillip started the season in the bullpen, but he has consistently been part of the rotation since the middle of June. In his last start on August 7, he went four innings, giving up five hits and one earned run in a 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels.

As both teams sit on the outside looking in on the NL wildcard race, games like this could have a lot of weight when the regular season comes to an end. Grabbing wins even when teams are tired at the end of a road trip could be what separates the good from the great.

Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet Pittsburgh

Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA) vs. Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA)

BD community, this is your gameday thread for today’s game. Chime off in the comments section below.

Second Tommy John surgery knocks Hunter Greene out for all of 2027 season

CINCINNATI, OHIO - JULY 31: Hunter Greene #21 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on July 31, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We knew the news on Hunter Greene’s troublesome right elbow wasn’t likely to be good. The odds were always long that the doctors would get in there and find something, anything to salvage, and that a less-invasive procedure could be put together that would get him back on the mound for the Cincinnati Reds in shorter order (relatively speaking).

Internal bracing was reportedly on the table, at least, following last week’s MRI. But when the surgeons got a better look at things yesterday in California, it was revealed that a full UCL replacement was going to be needed.

So, for the second time since being drafted by the Reds back in 2017, Hunter Greene required Tommy John surgery. Wednesday’s procedure means that he’ll need 12-18 months to recover, per The Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer, and that timeline effectively knocks him out for the entirety of the 2027 Cincinnati Reds season.

It’s a brutal, albeit predictable blow to the Reds at this juncture. We’ve effectively seen what this team looks like without Greene for the entirety of this season, and the results have simply not been anywhere good enough. Turns out it’s hard to replace guys capable of putting up 6.0 WAR seasons, as they just simply do not grow on trees.

Greene’s due a raise up to $15.333 million for the 2027 season. So far, I’ve not seen whether or not the Reds carry insurance on that, or to what amount, so it’s hard to say exactly how much this news decimates their ability to spend to build a team without him. Still, there’s almost no chance they can replace his talent and peak production for just that amount elsewhere, meaning a 2027 roster that already needed copious improvements now must find a way to procure one of the rarest types of players on the planet.

Dodgers host Brewers, jockeying for top National League playoff seeding

Los Angeles, CA - October 17: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers moves to third base on a single by teammate Will Smith (not pictured) against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning of game 4 of a National League Championship series baseball game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday, October 18, 2025. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers are coming off a much-needed series win, sweeping the Kansas City Royals, one of the worst teams in baseball in three close games, but now face one of the best with the Milwaukee Brewers coming to Dodger Stadium.

Starting Thursday the Dodgers host a Brewers team with the best record in the National League, a half-game behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the best in baseball. Milwaukee had the best record in MLB last season and home field advantage in the postseason. That didn’t stop the Dodgers from sweeping them in the National League Championship Series, after the Brewers won all six games against Los Angeles in the regular season.

That was an extreme series of outcomes. This year, the Dodgers took two of three games in Milwaukee from May 22-24. The Brewers come to town having just gotten swept in San Diego, which tightened up the top of the National League standings entering Thursday.

  1. Brewers (74-47, +130 run differential)
  2. Braves (73-48, +124)
  3. Dodgers (73-48, +142)
  4. Cubs (71-50, +115)

The division leaders with the two best records get the top two seeds, which comes with a bye directly into the Division Series. That means starting the postseason on Saturday, October 3, having a whole week to set up a pitching staff exactly how you want it.

The third division winner has to play a best-of-three wild card series first, all at their home stadium, from September 29-October 1. Having to play another series makes a postseason run more challenging. The Dodgers saw this firsthand last year, even though they ended it with another championship. In 2024, they had the bye and home field advantage in every series en route to a title.

How the Dodgers play in October will determine how they will fare, though giving themselves every advantage possible is the preferred outcome.

But also they just need to play better, going just 14-17 since July 4, even after the series sweep of Kansas City.

“Thinking about it on the plane [Sunday], we’re a wild card team right now, and we gotta get going, and play with urgency. We’ve got to make sure we don’t get ahead of the playoff situation, and talk about winning now, winning today and winning tomorrow,” manager Dave Roberts said Monday. “That’s the thing we need to get to, and then deal with whatever result. But I think that’s part of the ‘we’re gonna be okay,‘ ‘we’re good.‘ That’s not good enough, and clearly it’s not given how we’ve played in the last month. Across the board we need to play with more urgency, and our guys know that.”

Dodgers vs. Brewers pitching matchups

  • Thursday: Roki Sasaki vs. LHP Shane Drohan, 7:10 p.m. (SportsNet LA, MLB Network)
  • Friday: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. LHP Robert Gasser, 7:10 p.m. (SportsNet LA)
  • Saturday: Justin Wrobleski vs. Jacob Misiorowski, 4:15 p.m. (Fox)
  • Sunday: Tarik Skubal vs. Logan Henderson, 1:10 p.m. (SportsNet LA)

Braves vs. Mets series recap: Better late than never

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 11: Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves hits a two-run homer in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Truist Park on August 11, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

During our weekly preview post, I very politely asked the Atlanta Braves to beat the New York Mets in their final series matchup of the season. In addition to the benefits that come from continuing to win ballgames at this point in the season, it just would’ve been plain nice to see the Braves actually take care of business against New York for once.

It certainly wasn’t going to be the easiest of tasks, considering how well New York had been hitting since the All-Star break and how the rest of the season series had gone up until this particular point in time. As such, the ask seemed more like a polite request instead of a demand. Either way, the Braves granted our wish and now it’s time to discuss just how things went during this series in Cobb County.


Monday, August 10

Mets 8, Braves 5

The first inning nearly proved to be decisive and it also proved to be strange as well. Bryce Elder got tagged for a double by leadoff hitter A.J. Ewing and it took replay officials a ton of time to figure out that a ground-rule double was because of the umpire and not because the ball was lodged under the right-field wall. Once it was 1-0 Mets, there was further controversy when Bryce Elder seemingly signaled for a challenge on a 3-2 pitch that was ruled a walk. Instead of a strike-em-out throw-em-out to end the inning, the inning continued and that set the stage for Elder to tee one up for Brett Baty to crush and make it 5-0 in the eighth inning.

From that point forward, the Braves were busy trying to scratch-and-claw their way back into the contest and for a while, it seemed like it was possible. Even though New York canceled out the two runs that the Braves snatched back in their half of the first inning, the Braves scored three across the fourth and fifth inning to get to within two runs. Drake Baldwin and Ronald Acuña Jr. delivered RBI singles in the fourth inning and then Michael Harris II scored on a wild pitch from Jonathan Pintaro to make it a two-run game in the fifth inning. It was game on!

Unfortunately, the offense came to a screeching halt from the sixth inning onwards. Atlanta had a runner in scoring position in both the seventh and the ninth inning but they couldn’t scratch a run across and once the ninth inning rolled around, they were down three after Jared Young’s sacrifice fly in New York’s half of the ninth gave them an insurance run. The game ended 8-5 and the Mets had clinched the season series against the Braves for the first time since 2017. Woof.

Tuesday, August 11

Braves 4, Mets 0

How about Martín Pérez, y’all? The unheralded hero of this Atlanta rotation is now sitting on a scoreless innings streak of 18 innings after he added six more to that tally on Tuesday night. It certainly wasn’t easy and it definitely required a huge inning-ending double play in the top of the sixth with runners on the corners but Pérez was able to get that ground ball for a defense that has been very adept at getting grounders and turning them for two.

The double play ball helped keep the Braves up 1-0 on the Mets after Ozzie Albies bopped one out at Nolan McLean’s expense in the fifth inning. For seven full innings, that was actually the only hit that the Braves had — and yet they went into the eighth inning up 2-0 after Mauricio Dubón’s sacrifice fly gave Atlanta a precious insurance run.

While fans of Weird Baseball probably would’ve preferred to see the Braves figure out a way to win a game 2-0 with only one hit, fans of the Braves in general were probably very pleased to see Matt Olson absolutely crack one into the Chop House for his 35th dinger of the season. Just like that, the Braves were comfortably ahead and thanks to the combination of Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias all throwing perfect innings, Atlanta’s pitching completed a dominant night and the Braves sauntered to victory.

Wednesday, August 12

Braves 6, Mets 3

You know, Tyler Mahle was probably thinking “Hey man, the Braves did get a starting pitcher at the deadline,” while everybody was upset about how Atlanta handled business during this year’s trade deadline. Mahle was impressive in the Bronx and he picked up where he left off there in his Truist Park debut. He tossed another six innings where he struck out seven Mets batters and only gave up one run while he was out there. So far, so good for the jewel of Atlanta’s trade deadline.

Speaking of the deadline, Mahle had himself some run support thanks to fellow deadline acquisition Lane Thomas. Thomas swatted his first dinger as a Braves player in the second inning to put the Braves in front and that’s where Atlanta would stay for the entire contest. Atlanta was up 3-0 after five innings before Luis Torrens threatened to ruin things in the sixth inning with a solo shot that ended the shutout bid. Luis Robert Jr. smacked one out in the seventh inning to make it 3-2 and just like that, New York had life the game was on a knife-edge again.

Fortunately, the Braves responded immediately with a three-run flurry in their half of the second. Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Riley went back-to-back with solo homers in order to get both of those runs back and then they got an extra run for good measure after Drake Baldwin cashed in a double from Ronald Acuña Jr. with an RBI single off of Jefry Yan. Yan did get a strikeout but he only did the shimmy part of his celebration instead of jumping out of the gym like the Migos in 2012.

New York gave Braves Country one last heart palpitation in the ninth inning, which is when Bo Bichette homered off of Raisel Iglesias to lead off the frame. Carson Benge doubled right after that and then Iggy walked Luis Robert Jr. in order to bring the tying run to the plate with nobody out. Iglesias clamped down from that point forward and the Braves won but hoo boy, things have been getting a bit too interesting with Iggy lately. Also, you knew the Mets weren’t just going to roll over quietly so the drama wasn’t a huge surprise. I am not going to miss seeing this Mets team this year!


So while the Braves had to suffer the ignominy of losing seven whole entire ballgames to the New York Mets here in 2026, they can at least take some solace in the fact that they were able to take care of business in this series and at least pick up a series win. If anything, it proves that this is truly one of those rivalries where you can throw out the records whenever these two teams play. Even during that streak of season series wins dating back to 2017, a series against the Mets usually ended up being tough. You have to give credit to New York for continuing to bring the intensity even in a season where they struggled against nearly everybody else.

Still, the Braves absolutely needed to take care of business and they got the job done. It was certainly encouraging to see Martín Pérez continue to roll on the mound and Tyler Mahle could end up being a true deadline day revelation if he keeps on performing like this. Additionally, Matt Olson swinging his way into a four-way tie at the top of the home run leaderboard has definitely been fun to watch and it would absolutely be great to see him continue to keep swinging at a high level. He’s on track to exceed what he did last season at the plate and it’s great to see him do it for a team that has the Postseason firmly in its sights instead of last year’s team that flailed around for the most part.

Speaking of the Postseason, this was a productive series for Atlanta since Philadelphia dropped a series in St. Louis and the divisional lead is now back up to 9.5 games — just one game behind what was originally their largest lead of the season which came back on May 22 when they were up by 10.5 games. The Braves have been playing some good baseball since the All-Star Break while the Phillies have slowed down from the furious pace that they were setting once Don Mattingly took the reins and now the Braves are back in full control of the division.

These two teams still have seven games to play against each other down the stretch and the Braves are going to have a tough schedule down the stretch but as long as Atlanta can keep it steady, they’ll have the upper hand moving forward. Taking care of business against this Mets team was crucial and hopefully we’ll continue to see the Braves keep it moving in the right direction as they prepare for a tough Diamondbacks squad this weekend.