The 2025-26 season was not one to remember for the New York Rangers, but there’s a small silver lining.
There’s no hiding the fact that the Blueshirts underperformed this season, and to make matters worse, the team’s future is still filled with uncertainty and concern.
However, to close out the year, a glimmer of hope shone upon the Rangers nation in the form of young talent.
Through the latter half of the season, the Rangers called up Jaroslav Chmelař, Adam Sýkora, and Dylan Garand, while signing Drew Fortescue to his entry-level contract and claiming Tye Kartye off waivers.
Noah Laba, who has been with the Rangers for the entire season, and Gabe Perreault, who has been with the team since December, elevated their play to close out the season, with both forwards taking on increased roles.
The emergence of some of these younger players helped contribute to the Rangers’ sudden late-season success.
Over a long home stand starting late in March and extending into April, the Rangers won five of seven games, largely due to the immediate impact of the team’s youth.
Mike Sullivan believes that he’s gotten a large enough sample size from these young players to where he can properly evaluate them during the offseason and have a better understanding of their individual games going into training camp in September.
“Some of these guys got to, got a chunk of games down the stretch and had an opportunity to get their feet wet, so to speak,” Sullivan said. “After you get your first couple of games under your belt, and you're here for more than a week or so, the reality of the league starts to settle in. Some guys have a hard time sustaining it, and other guys don't.
“I thought for the most part, the guys that we called up late in the season here, they did a pretty good job of sustaining a high level of play, and so that's certainly encouraging for us moving forward.”
Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Cubs play a three-game series in Chicago starting on Friday afternoon...
5 things to watch
Offensively bad
During their eight-game losing streak, the Mets have scored 12 runs, which is almost impossible to believe.
In those eight contests, all without Juan Soto, New York has been shut out three times while being held to one or two runs on four occasions.
Against the Dodgers earlier this week, it was starting pitchers Justin Wrobleski (who tossed a career-high eight innings), Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani who gave New York fits.
And it's not like New York has been hitting into much hard luck.
Their hitters have often been in between while missing hittable fastballs, expanding the zone, failing to work the count, and hitting the ball on the ground at an alarming rate.
"We’re not dictating at-bats," Carlos Mendoza said after Wednesday's loss. "Getting beat by fastballs even though there was some good fastballs byOhtani today -- we swung through a lot of them today. We have to be able to put pressure and be in attack mode. Right now, understanding what guys are going through is contagious. At the same time, nobody is feeling sorry for us. We got to be able to dictate at-bats."
Senga looked fantastic in his first two starts of the season, allowing just four runs on nine hits in 11.2 innings while striking out 17.
His last start was different, as the right-hander was touched up by the A's to the tune of seven runs on eight hits (including two home runs) in 2.1 innings.
There was some poor fielding behind Senga against the A's, but his stuff wasn't nearly as good as it was in his first two starts.
Senga generated just six swings and misses on 72 pitches against the A's after getting 12 on 88 pitches against the Giants on April 5 and 17 on 92 pitches against the Cardinals on March 31.
Meanwhile, Senga's average four-seam fastball velocity has been ticking down. It was 97.4 mph against the Cards, 96.0 against the Giants, and 95.6 against the A's.
After going through an 0-for-22 funk that led some to muse about a potential demotion that David Stearns quickly shot down, Benge has started to look more like the hitter he was in spring training.
Benge has hit safely in five of his last six games, and reached base safely in seven of his last eight.
Against the Dodgers on Wednesday, Benge ripped a double and had a would-be single (on a liner to left field) that was turned into a fielder's choice when Francisco Alvarez got tied up between first base and second base and was forced out.
New York Mets left fielder Carson Benge (3) hits a single against the Athletics during the eighth inning at Citi Field. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Benge finding a groove would be a big development for a Mets team that is dealing with huge slumps by Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, and underperformance from most of their other regulars.
Chicago's starting pitching depth is being tested
The Cubs are still without Justin Steele, who underwent UCL surgery early last season.
In 2026, they have lost Cade Horton for the year due to elbow surgery and been without Matthew Boyd, who is working his way back from a biceps issue.
But Chicago has patched things together, due in part to the offseason trade that brought them Edward Cabrera.
Against the Mets, the Cubs will send out Cabrera on Friday, Jameson Taillon on Saturday, and Javier Assad on Sunday.
Cabrera was hit a bit against the Pirates in his last start, but has been tremendous overall, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 16.2 innings over his first three starts.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is going through it
It has been a struggle offensively for PCA since he blew the doors off to start 2025, in a year where he wound up smashing 31 homers.
Over the final two months of last season, Crow-Armstrong slashed just .188/.237/.295 with four home runs in 200 plate appearances.
So far this season, he is hitting .236/.276/.306 with one home run in 72 at-bats.
Crow-Armstrong has been a bit better recently, though, with five hits in his last 14 at-bats.
Defensively, he remains one of the best center fielders in baseball, rating in the 99th percentile in OAA.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Bo Bichette
Bichette is hitting .292 with a .346 OBP since April 3.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Freddy Peralta
Since allowing four runs on Opening Day, Peralta has a 2.81 ERA in 16.0 innings over his last three starts, allowing 10 hits while striking out 18.
Which Cubs player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?
Alex Bregman
Bregman carries a six-game hitting streak into the series.
Second-round bids for the San Diego Padres were due this week, and all first-round bidders submitted new offers, including three of at least $3.5 billion, according to multiple people familiar with the details who were granted anonymity because the details are private. One of the bids approached $4 billion, according to two people.
The Padres and boutique investment bank BDT & MSD, which was retained last November to explore a potential sale of the MLB club, declined to comment. The Times of San Diego was the first to report on second-round bids that “approached $3.5 billion.”
The four finalists for the Padres include José E. Feliciano, whose Clearlake Capital is a backer of Chelsea, and Dan Friedkin, whose Pursuit Sports owns Everton and AS Roma. The other two are Golden State Warriors co-owner Joe Lacob and Detroit Pistons owner Tom Gores, who bought a 27% stake in the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024.
The Padres were valued at $3.1 billion in Sportico’s latest MLB valuations, up 34% over the previous year, thanks to strong results on and off the field. Attendance in 2025 was 3.44 million, which ranked second in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego’s NL West rival. Gross revenue topped $500 million last year, Sporticopreviously reported. The club’s operating income was roughly $20 million.
The record sale price for an MLB franchise is $2.42 billion for Steve Cohen’s purchase of the New York Mets in 2020.
The Padres’ sale is viewed as a litmus test for valuations at a critical time for baseball. Many investors believe MLB teams are undervalued—the revenue multiple is 6.6x in Sportico’s valuations, by far the smallest of the five major U.S. men’s leagues, with potential structural changes coming that could grant owners greater cost certainty—and the Padres’ sales deck projects higher profits under a new CBA. Yet, the league and its players must navigate a labor battle that many believe could result in missed games next year.
The Padres’ owners announced the sale process in November, amid a legal battle between family members of late owner Peter Seidler, who died in 2023. Seidler’s widow, Sheel Kamal Seidler, sued his brothers, Bob and Matt, in Texas probate court, alleging they breached their fiduciary duties as trustees of Peter’s trust. One of the trust’s main assets is the control ownership stake in the Padres. In February, a court filing showed that Sheel has dismissed most of her original claims.
The current Padres ownership group, which includes at least 10 people or entities, bought the team in 2012 for $800 million. The largest stake of roughly 24% is held by the Peter Seidler Trust, with Sheel and her three children the beneficiaries.
The Padres have started the 2026 season 12-6 and sit two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Attendance again ranks second in baseball behind only the Dodgers.
EDITOR’S NOTE: An earlier version of this article ran here at BCB last October. This one has updated giveaway numbers and some information about Cubs gate giveaways from 2026.
I’ve written on this topic previously, but now I’ve got some new information that I wanted to pass along to you.
As you know if you attend Cubs games when there are promotional gate giveaways, the team limits those to the first 10,000 (or “up to” that number, as they generally say) who come to the gates. This has led to many disappointed fans who, for whatever reason, want the giveaway but can’t get to Wrigley Field early enough. In some cases this has produced very long lines to get into the ballpark and some trouble at some gates.
This year, there have already been some criticisms and issues with gate giveaways.
First, the magnet schedule giveaway is generally one of the most popular every year. For most years before 2026, the team gave away 30,000 of these — sometimes each day for the entire opening series. This year? Only 10,000 magnet schedules, and only on Opening Day.
This led to a lot of unhappy fans, as attendance on Opening Day was 39,712. This led to some of these being sold on eBay for as much as $25. This year’s magnet schedule did not have a sponsor — perhaps if the Cubs got a sponsor for that, they could have given away 30,000 of them. I can tell you that a lot of people I know were very disappointed.
There were also issues with two of the early season gate giveaways. One, a “puffer vest” with the Cubs 150th anniversary logo, was actually quite nice — but I heard from quite a few people that the zippers broke easily. I got lucky and got one with a working zipper, but… seems to me the Cubs could have ordered a higher-quality product. This one did have a sponsor (Southwest Airlines) so… how much more could that have cost to get good working zippers?
Last Saturday, a Ben Zobrist bobblehead was given away and the one I got was broken. Fortunately, the Cubs hold back some extras in case this happens and they replaced the one I received. I have seen Cubs staffers toss around the cartons the bobbleheads are shipped in, perhaps breaking some in the process. They really should be more careful with these things.
Overall, though, the biggest issue is having only 10,000 gate giveaway items when the team generally averages over 37,000 fans per game.
This is not the way many other teams do giveaways. I have numbers for you! On Wednesday, I went through the websites of all 29 other teams to see what their policies were for gate giveaways. Many teams, including the Cubs, now have other giveaways that you have to buy a special ticket for, and those are more limited in number. These numbers are only for gate giveaways that are open to all without a special ticket.
Dodgers: 40,000 (except two Shohei Ohtani giveaways that are listed for 54,000 fans) Padres: 40,000 Angels: 25,000 Brewers: 25,000 (some 10,000) Giants: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000) Diamondbacks: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000) Mariners: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000) Nationals: 20,000 Orioles: 20,000 Royals: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000) Pirates: 20,000 (some “all fans”) Yankees: 18,000 Mets: 18,000 (some 15,000) Guardians: 15,000 Cardinals: 15,000 Blue Jays: 15,000 Braves: 15,000 Rockies: 15,000 White Sox: 15,000 Twins: 10,000 Rangers: 10,000 Astros: 10,000 Marlins: 10,000 Rays: 10,000 Red Sox: 7,500
The number that sticks out the most to me in the list above is from the Dodgers. The Dodgers, who lead MLB in attendance every year. The Dodgers, who averaged 49,537 per date in 2025, have 40,000 of every giveaway item, which means that pretty much everyone who wants one would get one.
As noted above, Ohtani items basically go to everyone:
It should be noted that for some of the teams that have smaller numbers, those come close to matching their average attendance. For example, the Orioles have 20,000 giveaway items, their average attendance so far this year 21,362. The Royals, at 20,000 items, are above this year’s attendance average to date of 16,893. Clearly, for teams like this, promotional giveaways might actually draw larger crowds and bump up their averages. That’s not the case for the Cubs, who played to 89.5 percent of capacity in 2025 and who have most of their bobblehead giveaways — the most popular ones — on Saturdays when they’re likely close to sold out anyway. This year, for nine home dates, the Cubs have averaged 32,755, with quite a number of home dates played in very cold weather. That number will almost certainly go up.
The Marlins increased their giveaway item number from 8,000 to 10,000 this year, and so far this year they have averaged 11,713 for 10 home dates. Some other teams giving away more items this year: Giants (from 15,000 to 25,000), Mets (from 15,000 to 18,000, perhaps to match their crosstown rival Yankees) and Mariners (from 15,000 to 20,000).
The only teams that draw well and have as few or fewer giveaway items than the Cubs are the Astros (10,000 giveaways, 33,677 average in 2025) and Red Sox (7,500 giveaways, 34,278 average in 2025).
But most teams have enough for a large percentage of their fans to get popular giveaway items without having to rush to get to the ballpark early, or be disappointed if they can’t. As the Cubs surely know, many fans come to Wrigley from all over the Midwest — should they have to get up at 4 a.m. to drive to Chicago from Iowa just to get a bobblehead?
Occasionally at Wrigley Field, popular gate giveaways draw huge numbers of fans arriving early, creating potential crowd control issues. There’s another popular bobblehead this weekend (Ron Santo) and on Sat., May 24, likely the most popular gate giveaway item of the season, a Ryne Sandberg bobblehead.
Yes, I know the argument — teams want fans in the park early to consume more food and drink. At the same time, enough teams have enough giveaway items for fans that maybe this shouldn’t matter. As noted above, the Cubs (along with almost all other teams) have reduced the number of gate giveaways anyway in recent years, shifting over to the “special ticket” items that have proven to be popular.
The Cubs really should increase the number of gate giveaway items to at least 15,000, or hey, why not match the mighty Yankees at 18,000? Or perhaps to half of the 40,000 the Dodgers give, to 20,000? That would leave far fewer dissatisfied Cubs fans, and there shouldn’t be any additional cost to the team, since the items generally have a sponsor who pays for them. (The Ben Zobrist bobblehead, for example, had Jewel/Osco as its sponsor.)
' "La Guerre a L'Allemande"; Le lendamain de l'explosion,dans salle voisine et exactement semblable, les eleves sages-femmes et les infirmieres continuent leurs soins aux meres et aux nou veaux-nes', 1918. From "L'Album de la Guerre 1914-1919, Volume 2" [L'Illustration, Paris, 1924]. Creator: Unknown. (Photo by The Print Collector/Heritage Images via Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Diamondbacks may have got Merrill Kelly back while in Baltimore. But Arizona still currently have a full dozen players on the injured list. They are evenly split between hitters and pitchers, but two-third of them are on the extended 60-day injured list. With an off-day today, I thought it was a good opportunity to go through the list, and see what the status is of each wounded snake.
Corbin Burnes (IL-60)
It was June 1st 2025 that Burnes threw his last pitch for the D-backs, Tommy John surgery following shortly thereafter. His rehab progress has been steady, though there was never an expectation he would be back in less than a year. The last update from the team had Burnes throwing a twenty-pitch bullpen session on the last day of March. It’ll be a process, Burnes gradually mixing in pitches other than fastballs, and also seeking to build his stamina back up. He could be a valuable addition in the second half, though Jack suggests caution. As Jack does. 🙂 Expected return: All-Star break.
Jordan Lawlar (IL-60)
Probably the most unfortunate injury of the year, Lawlar was hit by a pitch from Atlanta’s Osvaldo Bido, in the same game where he hit his first major-league home-run. While initial X-rays were negative, further examination revealed a fractured wrist, meaning he will be out for 6-8 weeks. Jordan had started off 6-for-18, and had acquitted himself well as an outfielder too. Lawlar seemed to have turned the corner after his rough early time in the bigs, so hopefully he’ll be able to sustain the momentum when he returns. Expected return: late May.
Lourdes Gurriel (IL-10)
The initial expectation was that Gurriell would miss 9-10 months after surgery last September to repair his torn ACL. However, he has speed-run the healing process: indeed, he wanted to be part of the Opening Day roster. Wiser heads prevailed there, but he is now on a rehab assignment with the Double-A Amarillo Sod Poodles. We’ll see how long it takes from there. The maximum length of an assignment like that is twenty days, but I’d not be surprised to see Gurriell back sooner. However, he will probably be DHing initially for the D-backs. Expected return: end of April.
Tyler Locklear (IL-10)
After coming over from the Mariners at the deadline, Locklear hit the IL on September 8, following an unfortunate collision at first base with base runner Connor Wong of Boston. At that time, it was just described as elbow inflammation, but things were apparently worse than originally expected. He ended up having surgery on both shoulder and elbow in early October. There hasn’t been any updates – good or bad – since the beginning of spring training, but his total absence from the preseason would indicated he’s still certainly some way off. Expected return: late May.
Justin Martinez (IL-60)
Not long after ace starting pitcher Burnes had Tommy John in June, we got the news that ace closer Martinez would need more or less the same procedure. He started playing catch in January, but does seem to be a little behind Burnes in his rehab progress. Just before Opening Day, he was still throwing on flat ground, rather than off a mound. That it’s Martinez’s second Tommy John, having previously had the procedure in 2021, may be a factor in him taking additional time to come back. Expected return: late August.
Cristian Mena (IL-60)
Mena has been plagued by issues the past couple of year. In 2024, he was shutdown with a forearm strain at the end of July. The following year, he was done after the first week in June, injuring his right teres major – or “shoulder muscle” as we laymen call it – during the rainy debacle in Cincinnati. It was hoped he would be healthy by spring. But, instead, he was shut down in late February, after suffering more discomfort in the same area. Come the end of spring, he was put back on the 60-day IL, and there has been nothing since. Expected return: no date.
Gabriel Moreno (IL-10)
Since coming to Arizona, Moreno has averaged only 97 games per season. It was just 83 last year, due to a fracture in his right index finger. While the current strained left oblique, incurred on a throw down to second base, isn’t a major injury, it continues an unfortunate trend. As we’ve seen with other players, obliques are potentially tricky things. If Moreno rushes back, it could backfire. So I’ve a feeling he is going to be out for a bit more than the minimum ten days. Expected return: end of April.
A.J. Puk (IL-60)
There’s a couple of reasons Puk will be back before his fellow elbow surgery victims. His injury happened earlier in 2025: he threw his last pitch almost exactly one year ago, on April 17. But his procedure was also different: an internal brace, which is more repair than reconstruction. That has a shorter rehab time, although like Martinez, it is also Puk’s second go around. He previously had Tommy John surgery in April 2018. A.J. has been throwing bullpens, and obviously, stamina will be less a concern than for Burnes. Expected return: mid-June.
Andrew Saalfrank (IL-60)
It appears the baseball gods have not finished punishing Saalfrank. While he had a successful return after serving a gambling suspension, his pitch velocity was well down on previous figures. He pushed through shoulder soreness, but the issue did not resolve itself over the winter. Surgery to clean out the shoulder proved necessary, and that took place in February. It turned out to be the first in a series of dominoes, which ended in the 2026 D-backs bullpen being free from lefties. Expected return: 2027, if there is even a season.
Carlos Santana (IL-10)
I’ve a feeling the oldest active position player in the majors won’t be hurried back. It is only the veteran’s second IL spell since 2014: he missed time in 2022 with ankle bursitis. But when Santana went on the injured list with a right adductor strain, he had gone just 2-for-24 through his first eight games. Ildemaro Vargas and Jose Fernandez have done considerably better than that in Santana’s absence. If that continues, there is a non-zero (though small) chance the team could decide simply to cut bait when Carlos is healthy. Expected return: early May.
Pavin Smith (IL-60)
Smith’s elbow had been a source of bother throughout spring training. He was a late scratch on Opening Day in LA, and though he played in the rest of the first series, the issue lingered. A cortisone shot and rest didn’t fix things, and it was announced on Tuesday that he would have surgery to clear out “loose bodies” in his left elbow. This typically has a recovery time of 6-8 weeks, explaining why the team was able to free up a roster spot for Aramis Garcia by moving Pavin to the 60-day IL. Expected return: mid-June.
Blake Walston (IL-60)
Remember him? He made seven appearances for the team back in 2024. But Walston then had Tommy John surgery in March the following year. On that basis, you’d expect him to be nearing the end of his rehab. However, he got dropped back on the 60-day IL at the start of the season, so is clearly going to miss at least another two months. Unlike everyone else on the list, I was unable to source any updates on Walston’s progress, or lack thereof. I’d be expecting reports of bullpens by now. Still, until proven otherwise, I’m going to assume that no news is good news. Expected return: mid-June.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 15: Jesús Luzardo #44 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after multiple errors during the third inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on April 15, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. All players are wearing the number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For most of a season that, in the grand scheme of things is still in its infancy, most of the angst directed at the Phillies has been towards an inconsistent and maddening offense.
That, of course, makes sense. After all, it has been the lineup that has torpedoed four attempts by this talented team to win a World Series. But in the three-game series the Phils just wrapped up against the Cubs, the pitching staff gave up 28 runs, capped off by Jesus Luzardo’s astonishing implosion Wednesday night:
5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Through 18 games, this vaunted pitching staff’s ERA stands at 4.92, 5th-worst in Major League Baseball. Only the Cardinals (4.94), White Sox (5.02), Nationals (5.89) and Astros (6.17), have been worse. They have allowed a league-high .272 batting average against them. Phillies’ pitchers are every bit as responsible for their -25 run differential that is 3rd-worst in the league.
White Sox (-38)
Giants (-27)
Phillies (-25)
Blue Jays (-24)
It is still very early in the season. Only 18 games have been played. And yes, it does provide some comfort that the defending AL pennant winners (Toronto) are off to the same rough start as the Phils.
If you’re a bit bewildered by the Phillies’ pitchers through the first three weeks of the season, you have every right to be. We’ve seen multiple instances where they like world beaters for long stretches and then are suddenly done in by the big inning or a single lackluster start. As a result, the overall numbers of the individual pitchers don’t look great.
Cristopher Sanchez’ ERA remains a sparkling 2.01 through his first four starts, even though he hasn’t featured his best stuff as of yet. Andrew Painter’s is 3.77, Aaron Nola’s is 4.03, Luzardo’s jumped to a ghastly 7.94 after Wednesday night’s disaster, and Taijuan Walker’s 7.36 ERA is also unsightly.
When the strength of the team is supposed to be the starting rotation, these types of numbers foment an 8-10 start.
But the underlying metrics for the staff indicate they have been, by far, the unluckiest pitching staff in baseball through the season’s first three weeks.
According to Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, their 3.5 fWAR is 2nd-best in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners (3.7). Yes, that’s right, Fangraphs believes the Phillies have the No. 2 pitching staff in baseball thus far. Although their 4.92 ERA is 5th-worst, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.06 is 2nd-best. There is not a single pitcher of note on the entire staff who is out-pitching his underlying metrics.
Cristopher Sanchez: 2.01 ERA, 1.90 FIP (0.11 E-F)
Aaron Nola: 3.56 ERA, 4.03 FIP, (0.47 E-F)
Taijuan Walker: 7.36 ERA, 6.50 FIP (0.87 E-F)
Andrew Painter: 3.77 ERA, 1.55 FIP (2.21 E-F)
Jesus Luzardo: 7.94 ERA, 2.49 FIP (5.05 E-F!!!)
For the uninitiated, FIP uses a formula that factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, filtering out batted ball data that is largely out of a pitcher’s control. No team in baseball has a larger gap between their ERA and FIP than the Phillies. In fact, their 1.86 difference is a full run more than the next closest team, the Astros (0.85). It is not a perfect statistic, but it is useful to help make sense of things when results don’t meet the eye test.
The bullpen has the same issues.
Zach Pop: 3.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP (0.52 E-F)
Jhoan Duran: 1.35 ERA, 0.76 FIP (0.59 E-F)
Tim Mayza: 3.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP (0.73 E-F)
Brad Keller: 4.70 ERA, 3.55 FIP (1.15 E-F)
Kyle Backhus: 7.71 ERA, 6.37 FIP (1.34 E-F)
Tanner Banks: 5.40 ERA, 3.46 FIP (1.94 E-F)
Orion Kerkering: 4.15 ERA, 2.00 FIP (2.15 E-F)
Jonathan Bowlan: 3.36 ERA, 1.30 FIP (2.56 E-F)
Jose Alvarado: 10.50 ERA, 2.49 FIP (8.01 E-F!!!)
Phillies pitchers are striking a ton of guys out, the 3rd-highest rate in baseball (26.2%), while at the same time are the 2nd-stingiest staff in terms of walks (6.7%). They also are a top-10 staff in avoiding home runs, with their 0.84 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) tied with the Dodgers’ staff for 8th.
The reason Phils pitchers are giving up so few home runs is because they are inducing more ground balls than any team in baseball (49.9%). They’re also elite at not allowing hard contact. Their hard-hit rate (29.2%), as calculated by Fangraphs, is 3rd-best in the league and their average exit velocity allowed (87.4 mph) is also the best.
To sum up:
They’re striking out a ton of batters.
They are walking very few.
They don’t allow many home runs because they have the highest ground ball rate in the league.
They are allowing the weakest contact.
This is what you want. You build a staff in order to generate all of these things, which leads to one overriding conclusion.
On the whole, the Phillies have been unlucky.
As a team, the staff has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .359. Folks, that is insanely high and far and away the worst in baseball, a full 32 points higher than the next-closest team (Houston’s .327). BABIP numbers that high never sustain themselves over the course of a full season. Last year, the Phils’ BABIP was 6th-highest, but only sat at .299.
It’s going to come down.
But one issue that may not correct itself to as large a degree is the defense. Over the first three weeks, the staff has been undone by the worst glove work in baseball.
Their -15 Defensive Runs Saved is dead last and their -6 Outs Above Average is tied for 3rd-worst. They’ve committed 14 errors, 4th-most in MLB. Turner was given a rough error that led to the Cubs’ second run on Wednesday night, but over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the Phils’ defense give away too many outs. This is not a strong defensive team by nature, but early on, they’re making life more difficult than usual for their pitchers.
Now, there’s no sugarcoating Luzardo’s performance on Wednesday night. He gave up a ton of hits and allowed a ton of runs, but his average exit velocity allowed was only 86.9 mph, and he generated a 45.5% ground ball rate against the Cubs. Many of the hits were bleeding grounders and bloopers, although to be fair, the Cubs did square some balls up on him in the 3rd and 5th innings. And there are other issues to be concerned about with him.
Luzardo has long had struggles pitching from the stretch (9.22 career ERA with runners on base), and that problem has only been exacerbated in 2026 (24.55 ERA), and there are other issues, too.
Some concerning Jesús Luzardo stats:
1. Opponents are hitting .467 with an OPS over 1.300 when they swing first pitch against Luzardo
2. His fastball is getting smoked right now. The average against his four-seamer is .348 and against his sinker it’s .375.
The good news is Luzardo struggled in a similar fashion last season when the Phillies believed he was tipping his pitches, and they fixed it. While that doesn’t appear to be the problem now, Caleb Cotham is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, and these feel like fixable issues.
As for the rest of the staff, the “back-of-the-baseball-card” numbers should revert to the mean as long as the rest of the underlying data doesn’t change much. The staff has actually been pitching really well, but hasn’t had much to show for it through the first 18 games.
Check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, where Justin Klugh and I discussed this and recapped the Phils’ series against the Cubs and their rough start to the season. Powered by WHYY.
Post lineup in haste, repent at Leasure? | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The White Sox will be trying to salvage a win in a series where they’ve been pretty well thumped in the first two games, and the pitching staff may give a try at keeping the Rays to fewer than eight runs while they’re at it. This will be the first game where there’s no one in the Sox lineup making a major league debut, so maybe experience will come into play.
The Sox presumably have their best starter on the mound, since it’s Anthony Kay’s turn in the rotation, though Jordan Leasure is playing the role of opener. Before you slap your forehead and scream, “Oh, no — not HIM!!” please note that Leasure has given up no runs in his last four appearances, so somebody must have pointed out to him that the object is to keep opponents off the bases.
The Rays counter with veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is 3-0 with a 3.94 ERA and outstanding 0.938 WHIP and held the Yankees to two runs in five innings last time out. Matz will face a White Sox lineup without Colson Montgomery, who struck out four times last night, or any batter with more than 20 at-bats who’s hitting over .203, but with San Antonacci, who was 1-for-3 in his MLB debut last night ,in left and hitting ninth.
Leasure and presumably Kay will face a Rays lineup that has won five in a row, two of them pummels of the Sox and three of them close wins over the Yankees.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 Central, with a chance of thunderstorms theoretically going away about then, with a temp of 71 and winds blowing out to left. Usual broadcast suspects.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 11: Jacob Lopez #57 of the Athletics throws a pitch against the New York Mets during the third inning at Citi Field on April 11, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We are close to game time today in Sacramento as the Athletics prepare to wrap up this four-game series against the Texas Rangers. This afternoon, the Athletics look to win their third-straight game, third-straight series and increase their divisional lead. On the other side, the Rangers seek the series split, hoping to leave town tied atop the standings again.
Last night, the Athletics won 6-5, catapulting into first place in the American League West. Catcher Shea Langeliers and shortstop Jacob Wilson hit two-run home runs in back-to-back innings, giving the hosts a four run lead. Wilson’s run proved to be the game winner. Rangers first baseman Jake Burger’s three-run home run in the eighth inning off A’s reliever Mark Leiter Jr. reduced the visitors deficit to one. That was the closest Texas would get as A’s reliever Joel Kuhnel continued to excel, recording a four-out save.
Left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez takes the mound for the A’s today for his fourth start of the season. He has largely struggled his first three outings, recording a 1-1 record and 7.43 ERA. In Lopez’s last start against the New York Mets, he gave up five runs in five innings, leaving the game after the A’s 7-1 lead was reduced to 7-6. If the A’s want to win this series against their division rivals, the team needs its lanky lefty to put forth his best start of the season. If he struggles again, the A’s may consider moving him to the bullpen or Triple-A Las Vegas in exchange for a better-performing pitcher. After Lopez, high-upside right hander Jack Perkins may make an appearance out of the bullpen, depending on the game’s score and situation.
The Athletics lineup for Game four shakes out like this:
Second baseman Jeff McNeil will bat leadoff today for the first time with the Athletics. Maybe moving first baseman Nick Kurtz to the third spot in the order will snap him out of his early-season slump. Austin Wynns is catching today, yet Langeliers remains in the lineup as the designated hitter in the wake of his 467–foot home run last night. Lastly, Darell Hernáiz gets the start at third base in place of Max Muncy and Carlos Cortes is in right field with usual right fielder Lawrence Butler shifting to center field.
This afternoon will be a Leiter family reunion. Mark Leiter Jr.’s cousin Jack Leiter is the Rangers starting pitcher. The No. 2 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA entering his fourth start of the season. In his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Leiter allowed five runs in only 3 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old has good stuff, but has struggled to find consistent success. In a matchup that could be a high-scoring affair, the A’s offense needs to work counts, make Leiter exert a lot of effort and take advantage of any mistakes he makes.
The Rangers lineup for today’s series finale is missing some notable names, most significantly superstar shortstop Corey Seager, who hit a two-run home run yesterday. Even without Seager, the Rangers still have multiple dangerous hitters in their lineup. First baseman Jake Burger has been a one-man wrecking ball this series. He will likely be licking his chops today as the right-handed hitter gets to face the left-hander Lopez. In addition to Burger, Lopez must be careful when pitching to outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Wyatt Langford.
Let’s win another series today, fellas. Let’s go A’s!
The homers kept pouring in yesterday, marking three straight days with a long ball and a major turnaround in ROI, flipping from -11.1u to +2.6u. Let’s keep the momentum going with more home runs and MLB player props.
I’m double-dipping in this afternoon’s Rangers-A’s AL West matchup, while also targeting Tampa Bay Rays slugger Yandy Díaz in a prime hitter-friendly spot.
These are my favorite home run bets for Thursday, April 16.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Corey Seager
+490
Nick Kurtz
+410
Yandy Diaz
+470
💲Today's HR parlay
+11888
Corey Seager (+490)
Corey Seager to hit a homer at +490 is the best +EV home run prop of the morning, with a fair price around +310, and it’s easy to see why.
He gets a great matchup against A's starter Jacob Lopez, a lefty who isn’t any tougher on same-handed bats. Lopez has already allowed three home runs in 13+ innings, and the setting in Sacramento isn’t doing him any favors. He’s also struggling with control, issuing 13 walks, which can lead to pitches leaking over the heart of the plate.
Jake Burger sits at +370 to go deep but projects for the same home run rate (0.29) as Seager. Almost every Texas Rangers bat is showing +EV for a homer today, suggesting this is a matchup the market hasn’t fully priced in.
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network
Nick Kurtz (+410)
Sticking with the Rangers/Athletics game, Nick Kurtz projects as the best home run bet on the home side at +410, with a fair price around +330/+340. It’s a strong lefty vs. righty matchup, and Kurtz has already taken Jack Leiter deep in just three plate appearances.
The reigning Rookie of the Year hasn’t produced at the surface level, but the underlying power metrics are still there, including the best swing speed on the team and room for growth in his Blast Contact% numbers.
Leiter continues to give up loud contact and is coming off a four-walk, two-homer outing vs. the Dodgers. Plus, not many pitchers enjoy working at Sutter Health Park.
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network
Yandy Diaz (+470)
The home-run setting is strong on the South Side of Chicago today, with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. The Tampa Bay Rays also get the ninth-inning guarantee and a favorable group of arms to target.
Opener Jordan Leasure could go a couple of innings, and two of the six hits he’s allowed have left the yard. He’s expected to hand it off to lefty Anthony Kay, who has posted solid surface numbers but has shown signs of regression.
His command has been shaky with eight walks in 14+ innings, and, to get nerdy, his ideal attack angle rate ranks near the bottom of the league, meaning hitters are consistently getting optimal launch angles against him.
I'm backing Yandy Diaz at +470. He hits at the top of the order and could see five plate appearances. His BlastCon% is the best on the team, and he is red-hot with a hit and an RBI in five straight games. The top of this Tampa Bay lineup could do some damage and might be worth a HR round robin.
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, CHSN
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 5-28, +2.6 units
Today’s HR parlay
Corey Seager
Bet Now +11888
Nick Kurtz
Yandy Diaz
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Apr 14, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Ezequiel Duran (20) fields a ground ball against the Athletics during the sixth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
NEW YORK — Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole will throw around 45 pitches in his first minor league injury rehabilitation start as he inches closer to his return to the mound.
Cole will pitch for Double-A Somerset in the same game shortstop Anthony Volpe is rehabbing a torn labrum in his shoulder.
Cole, a six-time All-Star and the 2023 AL Cy Young award winner, is returning from last year’s reconstructive elbow surgery. He made a pair of one-inning spring training starts on March 18 and 24, and has been facing hitters since.
In his latest session, Cole threw 42 pitches over three simulated innings against batters from High-A Hudson Valley.
“I think we’ll get him to a higher threshold initially, but it’s one step at a time,” manager Aaron Boone said before the Yankees concluded a four-game series with the Angels. “Looking forward to him starting on Friday and we’ll build him from there and then even when he gets back to us we’ll probably be conservative with him but we’ll probably get him to a higher threshold initially.”
The Yankees anticipate Cole will return in June but will gradually build him up and take advantage of rules about the length of minor league rehab assignments for pitchers coming back from injury.
While position players’ minor league rehab assignments are limited to 20 days, pitchers have 30 days and those recovering from Tommy John surgery may receive three consecutive 10-day extensions.
Cole’s last official outing was in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series. He made a pair of spring training starts before undergoing the surgery with Los Angeles Dodgers team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
Cole’s 2024 season debut was delayed until June 19 because of nerve irritation and edema in his right elbow. He went 8-5 with a 3.41 ERA in 17 starts for New York and was 1-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five postseason starts.
Cole is signed to a nine-year, $324 million contract through 2028. He has a 153-80 career record and 3.18 ERA over 317 starts with Pittsburgh (2013-17), Houston (2018-19) and the Yankees (starting in 2020).
Besides Cole, Carlos Rodón will face hitters again and likely will start a rehab assignment next week. Boone said the left-hander will need three rehab games.
Rodón threw 50 pitches to batters over three simulated innings. Rodón is recovering from surgery on Oct. 15 to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and shave a bone spur, and his rehab was slowed by right hamstring tightness.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - APRIL 10: Steven Matz #32 of the Tampa Bay Rays throws against the New York Yankees during the first inning of a baseball game at Tropicana Field on April 10, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Seattle Mariners (8-11) to take on the San Diego Padres (12-6) for the third and final game of the series between AL West opponents. San Diego has won both matchups, 4-1 and 7-6.
San Diego had a formidable comeback last night to win 7-6. The Padres scored five runs in the ninth inning to cap off a 6-2 deficit entering the final frame. The Padres have won seven-straight games and 10 out of the last 11 contests.
Seattle's four-game winning streak was snapped in the last two days versus San Diego, giving the Mariners a 4-2 record over the last six games. The Mariners have now lost seven consecutive road games and have the MLB's worst batting average (.156) away from home despite having the fourth-best ERA (2.99).
Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Mariners at Padres
Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
Time: 8:40 PM EST
Site: Petco Park
City: San Diego, CA
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Mariners at the Padres
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Moneyline: Seattle Mariners (-120), San Diego Padres (+100)
Spread: Mariners -1.5 (+135), Padres +1.5 (-163)
Total: 8.5
Probable starting pitchers for Mariners at Padres
Thursday's pitching matchup (April 16): Luis Castillo vs. Walker Buehler
The Padres’ Xander Bogaerts is hitting .284 with 19 hits, 30 total bases, and three home runs over 67 at-bats
The Padres’ Manny Machado is hitting .185 with 10 hits, 13, strikeouts, and 16 walks over 54 at-bats
The Mariners’ Randy Arozarena is hitting .299 with 20 hits, 27 total bases, and seven RBI over 67 at-bats
The Mariners’ Cal Raleigh is hitting .151 with 11 hits, 28 strikeouts, and nine walks over 73 at-bats
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Mariners at Padres
The Mariners are 7-12 ATS this season
The Padres are 13-5 ATS this season
The Nationals are 9-10 to the Over this season
The Padres are 9-8-1 to the Over this season
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Mariners and the Padres
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Mariners and the Padres.
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Padres on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Padres at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Over on the Game Total of 8.5
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MILWAUKEE, WI - MARCH 29: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat (23) during a game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago White Sox on March 29, 2026, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI. (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After finally snapping a six-game losing streak in last night’s 2-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Brewers have a chance to build a bit of momentum and end the homestand on a high note.
Brandon Sproat gets the ball today as he looks for his first win as a Brewer. The right-hander has a 10.45 ERA through three appearances this season, though his last outing (3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 3 BB in relief) was a significant improvement over the first two. Hopefully he can limit the walks and keep showing signs of improvement against a Blue Jays offense missing George Springer and Alejandro Kirk.
On the mound for Toronto is Patrick Corbin. The veteran lefty had a 4.40 ERA last year, his best mark since the 2019 season. Corbin struggled in his season debut on Saturday, giving up six hits and four earned runs over four innings against the Twins.
Lineup regulars Brandon Lockridge, Brice Turang, and William Contreras make up the top of today’s order. Gary Sánchez, who’s already hit five home runs this season, hits cleanup.
With injuries mounting for the Brewers, the rest of the lineup is pretty thin. Despite snapping the losing streak, Milwaukee still holds the fourth-worst OPS in baseball over the last seven games. Luis Rengifo, Luis Matos, David Hamilton, and Joey Ortiz — hitting fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth respectively — all have an OPS under .600.
Hitting seventh and making his debut as a Milwaukee Brewer is left fielder Greg Jones. Jones is 1-for-7 in his major league career, although his one hit was a 419-foot home run.
First pitch is slated for 12:40 p.m. You can catch the television broadcast on Brewers.TV or listen to the game on WTMJ 620 and the Brewers Radio Network.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 13: A general view of the exterior of the stadium before game one of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 13, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Game three of three with the Brewers. This will take them through their sixth series of the season. So will be starting to see what the Jays are by now. Of course, I’m writing this before the season starts.
Let’s see….I’ve said everything I need to about Milwaukee in the first two GameThreads. And, as you read this, I’m still somewhere in Japan. Hopefully seeing a baseball game. My wife has us going to watch sumo wrestling. I’m totally not interested in it, but she does a lot of things that I like and she’s not interested in.
I’m looking forward to the food though. Tasting different things than I have at home is one of the appeals of travel. I’m not a big fan of sake, but we are going to a tasting and I’m interesting in tasting different types. There are a number of good Japanese Whiskeys and I’m hoping to taste some of those too.
Corey Seager
Nick Kurtz
Yandy Diaz
