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It must have been my birthday yesterday, as I hit the double dinger and cashed +5.68 units. However, I'm not blinded by the lights. My eyes are set on the home run and the MLB player props board today, and I want more.

The Orioles might have the best chance at homers today vs. Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, and Mickey Gasper's hot bat meets Bryce Miller's cold arm.

These are my favorite MLBhome run props for Wednesday, Sept. 2.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Gunnar Henderson	19%
Mickey Gasper	13%

Home run prediction: Gunnar Henderson (19%)

I want any piece of the middle of the Baltimore Orioles order at 3.8x or better against Tomoyuki Sugano, and that brings me to Gunnar Henderson. Sugano has the 15th-worst HR/9 in baseball this season, and his xERA is 1.72 points higher than his actual 5.23 ERA. He gets just 32% ground balls and has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts. He has been a home run target all season long.

Henderson might not be Baltimore's hottest bat, but at this price, I'll take a 22-HR hitter who ranks third in slugging over the last two weeks and costs nearly double Pete Alonso's price.

Coors Field is the second-best HR park today, per BallPark Pal. Winds are blowing out to left field, and 90-degree temperatures should help the ball fly. If Sugano doesn't get it done, the Rockies bullpen can, with its No. 26 xFIP and No. 28 xERA on the season.

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, MASN

Home run prediction: Mickey Gasper (13%)

This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries. 

Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors.

Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season.

I'd play this matchup to 5x. Neil Parker also likes some Boston bats to go yard today in his Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, Mariners.TV

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Tightly contested games across the board, including disappointing defensive efforts from both the Loons and Tower Buzzers, stood out on the first day of September.

Player of the day

It’s not every day you see a pitcher covering eight innings in the minor leagues; it’s not every day you see that anywhere, and Adam Serwinowski accomplished that feat in a close win for Tulsa at home over Wichita, helping this dominant Drillers team to go 31 games over .500 and secure their most wins ever (79).

Shortly after setting a career high in innings pitched as a professional, Serwinowski momentarily put behind what has been a disappointing campaign with an ERA north of 5.00 to toss an outstanding start. Serwinowski allowed just two runs in eight innings, dominating in a game in which the Drillers needed no less than that, narrowly beating out the Wind Surge.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Neither starting pitcher was on his game, with Christian Romero and David Davalillo both allowing four runs, but the Comets’ bullpen was as dominant as you’d want by covering 5.2 frames and conceding just a single hit in a 7-4 win. Involved in that great effort from the bullpen, Kris Bubic impressed in his first appearance on a rehab assignment, punching out two.

Matt Gorski and Ryan Fitzgerald hit solo shots in the second and ninth, respectively, but what really made the day for the Comets was a five-run fifth with contributions from all over the order—it included a Fitzgerald then game-tying two-run double, while the go-ahead hit came from Hyeseong Kim, also an RBI double.

Double-A Tulsa

Much like Eric Lauer in the majors, Adam Seriwnowski also allowed a pair of solo shots, but the similarities in these two outings end there, as Seriwnowski otherwise dominated the Wind Surge across eight two-run innings. Serwinowski had been more dominant in a pair of seven-inning outings, but by length, this was his best performance. Serwinowski allowed the Drillers to come from behind and win this game while recording only four hits to score their three runs.

Offensively, Logan Wagner was the big factor for Tulsa, first putting them on the scoreboard with a solo shot in the second and then securing the go-ahead RBI single in the sixth.

Responsible for scoring one of Tulsa’s runs, Kole Wagner didn’t record a hit but caused a lot of problems by drawing three walks in the game.

High-A Great Lakes

When you commit as many errors as you score runs, the chances of winning are rather slim, as it was on display in a Loons 4-3 loss against the Captains. Mairo Martinus, who has had such a nice start to his Great Lakes career, encountered some problems on the field, committing two of those three errors, and in the end, the only earned run allowed by the Loons staff came against the losing pitcher of record, Robby Porco.

Ninth-hole hitter Victor Rodriguez, who came into this game with one home run this season in over 250 at-bats, was responsible for two of the Loons’ three runs, hitting a two-run bomb in the seventh. For a brief moment, that gave the Loons the lead before handing it right back by allowing runs in the seventh and ninth.

Class-A Ontario

Much like the Loons, the Tower Buzzers also didn’t play clean defense and surrendered a late lead en route to a loss, beaten 8 to 6 by the Quakes, who scored all of their runs from the sixth inning onwards. This bullpen collapse, which included three separate blown saves from Camden Wimbish, Accibias Morales, and Devin Bell, meant that Jack O’Connor left his start empty-handed despite tossing five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Relying almost exclusively on the long ball to make something happen, the Tower Buzzers scored four of their six runs via homers, including a Caleb Johnson two-run bomb and solo shots from Joendry Vargas and Jose Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Bryan Gonzalez Garcia and Easton Shelton struggled heavily, with 3 strikeouts each.

Transactions

Outfielders Kyeler Thompson and Jose Gonzalez were assigned to Ontario. The Comets were assigned Alek Thomas as Alex Freeland received a call-up to the bigs, and lastly, Kris Bubic began a rehab assignment with the Comets.

Tuesday’s scores

• Round Rock 4, Oklahoma City 7
• Tulsa 3, Wichita 2
• Lake County 4, Great Lakes 3
• Ontario 6, Rancho Cucamonga 8

Wednesday’s schedule

• 10:05 a.m. PT: Tulsa (Wyatt Crowell) vs. Wichita (Chris Vallimont)
• 3:35 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Will Gagnon) at Lake County (Joey Oakie)
• 4:45 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Cole Irvin) at Round Rock (Winston Santos)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Trey Gregory-Alford)

After winning seven straight games, to include sweeping the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves have lost two games in a row to subpar opponents. With the Phillies on their tale, the Braves need to win games that they are supposed to win to keep the lead, and the game today against the Nationals is one of those games.

Grant Holmes will be taking the mound to face the Nationals for the third time this season.  In his first outing in late May he pitched 5.0 innings and surrendered two earned runs on six hits and recorded a season high ten strikeouts on two walks. His second outing, which took place at the end of July, went 4.2 innings and gave up three earned runs on five hits to include three HRs. He only had four strikeouts in that game.

Holmes should be watching out for Jorbit Vivas and Dylan Crews who both have a HR against him in six at-bats. Daylen Lile has two HRs in four at-bats, so it will be interesting if this because a nemesis scenario as time goes on.

For the season, Holmes has been a reliable arm for the Braves having amassed 128.2 innings of 3.71 ERA ball. If he could get to 6.0 innings today, the bullpen would sure appreciate it.

Brad Lord will be pitching for the Nationals and the players on the Braves roster have mixed against him.  Ozzie Albies has a .929 OPS in nine at-bats, Ronald Acuña has a HR and 1.125 OPS in eight at-bats, Drake Baldwin has a .777 OPS in nine at-bats, and Michael Harris has a HR and 1.000 OPS in nine at-bats. However, Matt Olson leads the team with eleven at-bats against him but only has a .182 OPS. Yes, OPS, not batting average, and no other player with at least four at-bats against Lord has an OPS above .600.

Lord has arguably been one of the bright spots for the Nationals pitching this season with an ERA of 3.75 in 69.2 innings. His underlying metrics show that he has been a bit on the fortunate side with a low strikeout rate of 21.5 percent, a high walk rate of 9.4 percent, and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.12.

Lord has already faced the Braves twice this season. His first outing was in April where he pitched 2.2 innings in relief. He gave up a run on two hits. His second outing was in late May where he came in on long relief where he pitched 3.0 innings and struck out three and gave up zero runs.

Of his thirty-three appearances, only four have been starts, and they have all been in the opener capacity, so the odds heavily favor that happening again today.

Even with injuries it was very apparent last night that the Nationals are still a formidable force on offense. The Braves need to get to Lord early and force him to stay as an opener style performance to get to the weak Nationals bullpen.

This is clearly not a “must win” game, but the Braves really need to win this one with the Phillies being one of the hottest teams in MLB right now playing against a struggling Diamondbacks squad.

First pitch is at 1:05 EDT

Game Info

Game Time: Wednesday, September 2nd, 1:05 pm EDT

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

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The Boston Red Sox are home favorites as they wrap up a three-game clash with the Seattle Mariners this afternoon at Fenway Park.

My Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions expect the home team to capitalize on Bryce Miller's mound struggles to earn a win on Wednesday, Sept. 2, with first pitch slated for 4:10 p.m. ET.

Who will win Mariners vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (56.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Seattle Mariners rank 29th in xwOBA with just 3.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and starter Bryce Miller’s underlying numbers skyrocket away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

His home 2.52 xERA and 3.67 xFIP jump to 3.80 and 4.04 marks, respectively, on the highway, where Miller has also surrendered a .346 wOBA and .239 ISO.

So, with the Boston Red Sox ranking second in wOBA, fourth in ISO and seventh in xwOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, I’m happy to back them to 57.4% this afternoon.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox rank second in bullpen xERA and third in xFIP while pitching the third-most innings in the second half.

Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (51.2%)

While there’s no sugarcoating Boston starter Patrick Sandoval’s 5.32 xERA and 4.59 xFIP across his past seven starts, he’s still allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of those outings.

Additionally, I’m anticipating statistical correction to his .356 BABIP, the ninth-highest mark among all starters with at least 30 innings pitched during the stretch.

With the Mariners also ranking 30th in wOBA against lefties and 21st in wOBA on the highway, this Under 8.5 is in play to 53.5%.

Mariners vs Red Sox home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (16.9%)

Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has a single homer across his past 16 games, and he's a ripe candidate to kick the skid tonight. Abreu has posted a high-end .213 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and Miller has a .236 ISO vs. left-handed hitters on the road.

Mariners vs Red Sox weather

The weather forecast calls for comfortable temperatures hovering around 72 degrees with a crosswind in the 11-mph range. The elements will have little impact at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Mariners vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Mariners 46.5% | Red Sox 57.4%
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (63%) | Red Sox -1.5 (40.8%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (52.4%)

Mariners vs Red Sox trend

The Boston Red Sox have won 34 of their last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Mariners vs Red Sox and game info

Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries

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The Orioles have not overwhelmed teams with their offensive firepower, but the team keeps finding ways to win games. Pete Alonso has generated some AL MVP chatter, and Coby Mayo looks like Barry Bonds against lefties, but the majority of the lineup has provided inconsistent production this season.

So how does a team filled with streaky hitters maximize its chances to win games? It turns to the hot hand at the right time.

The Orioles entered last night’s game in Colorado leading all of baseball with 34 RBIs by pinch hitters. Craig Albernaz, along with the big brains in the front office, have routinely put the right player into the right position at the right time. Guys like Leody Taveras, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers and Tyler O’Neill do not boast above average stat lines, but they have all made the most of their opportunities when grabbing a bat late in games.

The late-inning magic led to Baltimore beat writer Jake Rill proclaiming that a pinch-hitting resurgence was fueling Baltimore’s playoff push. The story featured quotes from Albernaz discussing the mindset of players on the bench. He pointed out the work that players do to stay ready and shared that the team educates hitters on which pitchers they could face in late-game situations.

Rill’s story ran before O’Neill hit the injured list with a rotator cuff strain, but pinch-hitting remains a significant part of Baltimore’s strategy. In fact, Albernaz just picked up two more options to break a game open late.

The Orioles claimed former All Star Luis Robert Jr. to help out down the stretch. Robert Jr. fills a need as a right-handed outfielder with some pop at the dish. Robert Jr. can play all three outfield positions. He’s healthy, and he posted a 128 wRC+ over 75 at bats in August.

Baltimore doesn’t need Robert Jr. to match his 130 OPS+ from 2023, but they committed $5 million because they believe he can make an impact in September. He’s a career .285/.359/.497 hitter against lefties, and he represents a clear offensive improvement over recently acquired rookie Christian Franklin. The Orioles placed Franklin on the 10-day injured list when they activated Robert Jr.

Cowser was the top story in baseball yesterday after his walk-off robbery, but he entered last night’s game slashing .159/.255/.227 against southpaws. The Orioles have turned to Taveras against lefties, but his .203/.274/.244 falls well below Robert Jr. In a way, the move addressed one of Baltimore’s greatest weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball

But Robert Jr. wasn’t the only heavy hitter to join the club yesterday. The Orioles also recalled Heston Kjerstad to serve as a power bat off the bench. The Arkansas product may receive an occasional start in the corner outfield, but he won’t be used as a defensive replacement anytime soon. Baltimore added the former first-round pick to make an impact at the dish. And now, with Pete Alonso in need of extra at bats as the DH, Kjerstad could be limited to pinch-hit opportunities late in games.

With rosters expanding to 28, the Orioles continue to carry three catchers. Carlos Narváez has yet to inspire much confidence at the plate, so look for Baltimore to deploy the bench bats if/when Narváez finds himself in a late-inning situation. Christian Encarnacion Strand remains an intriguing option to deliver a clutch hit, and Basallo could grab a bat on days that Narváez gets the start.

Despite Baltimore’s success, pinch hitting is not the easiest task. It’s difficult for players to remain engaged and not overthink during their only opportunity of the evening. Robert Jr. is a veteran that has played in two big cities, but Kjerstad has less than 300 plate appearances under his belt. The 27-year-old has faced plenty of adversity during his time in professional baseball, and he must feel some extra pressure to perform now that he’s back in the big leagues.

The coaching staff will do its best to keep Kjerstad in the right frame of mind. At a minimum, it pays to have options at this point in the season. Albernaz has made a habit of maximizing his options in the second half, and the Orioles will need to keep riding the hot hand if they hope to make the playoffs.

It got a little weird at times, but the Yankees had control for the vast majority of last night’s game in Anaheim, a welcome return to normalcy after an ugly 10-1 blowout loss on Monday. Homers by Spencer Jones and Jazz Chisholm Jr. got them off on the right foot, and while stranded baserunners and a shaky sixth from Gerrit Cole allowed the Angels to stay in the ballgame, the Bombers pulled away late with some key insurance runs. They thus regained the game they lost on Boston yesterday (they’re now four games ahead of the Red Sox), and remained 4.5 back of Tampa Bay.

Here’s what else was going on around the American League on Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay Rays (83-55) 6, New York Mets (62-77) 2

The Mets might have scored a surprising victory at the Trop on Monday, but for those who have been exposed to more than their fair share of the Mets over the years, the Tuesday night showdown against old friend Freddy Peralta went exactly as expected. The one-time Brewers ace was traded from Queens a month ago when that experiment went sour, and given the opportunity, he of course spun six innings of three-hit ball while fanning seven, getting burned on a Francisco Lindor leadoff homer but really nothing else.

Meanwhile, the Rays got to Sean Manaea via the ol’ “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach. They sprayed 11 hits on him in 5.2 innings, getting their first couple runs on RBI knocks from Junior Caminero and Ryan Vilade before breaking it open a bit with three in the sixth. Nick Fortes doubled down the left-field line to plate Chandler Simpson, Fortes scored on a sacrifice fly, and Yandy Díaz swatted a 396-foot homer to make it a 5-1 game.

Despite the deficit, the Mets did have a chance to get back into this game. Garrett Cleavinger walked the bases loaded with one out in the seventh, bringing Mark Vientos to the plate as the tying run. Kevin Cash called upon Tyler Wells, who got Vientos to foul out before walking Lindor to bring home one of the runners. The moment was there for Juan Soto … and he popped up.

Alas. The Mets never got another man on base, the Rays tacked on an insurance run, and that was that.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (75-64) 6, Seattle Mariners (65-74) 9: Amid an 8-15 tailspin that may have finally put the nail in the coffin for their 2026 season, the Mariners began September on a better note. They’re gonna need more than a few Hail Marys to save themselves, but they at least had the decency to snap their skid against Boston rather than waiting until they left town. The M’s treated September call-up Jedixson Paez like a minor leaguer in his Red Sox debut, blasting him for eight runs on 10 hits in 3.2 innings, with Dominic Canzone and the red-hot Randy Arozarena both going yard. Paez’s fellow rookie Lazaro Montes broke into the bigs in style with an RBI single off Paez in the third for his first career hit; he later took Wyatt Olds deep to check off his first career homer as well.

Bryan Woo tossed six solid innings with one earned run allowed, but because the 2026 Mariners are the 2026 Mariners, not even wins with nine runs scored come easy. Seattle led 9-1 entering the sixth, when Boston plated an unearned run with the help of an error by third baseman Brock Rodden. Eli White hit a two-run double a couple innings later and Yankees legend Jahmai Jones clobbered a two-run shot to make it a 9-6 ballgame in the ninth. So Seattle brought in Andrés Muñoz to slam the door, and he did the job for the final two outs.

Chicago White Sox (73-65) 5, Houston Astros (70-69) 1: The White Sox held serve on their three-game lead over the Guardians in AL Central by punching back after the Astros took the Monday opener. Ronel Blanco was effective in four scoreless innings for Houston, but 88 pitches forced him from the game early. The door was open for the Pale Hose to do damage against Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai, and they obliged, with both Colson Montgomery and Randal Grichuk delivering two-run doubles. Sean Burke delivered 5.1 innings of one-hit shutout ball to lead the way for the White Sox on the mound.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Texas Rangers (69-70) 8, The Athletics (53-86) 5: Houston’s loss allowed the under-.500 Rangers to trim the Astros’ AL West lead back down to one game. Texas has been fortunate to draw the hapless A’s this week at home, and they’ve done what they’ve needed to do. The 8-5 final score belies the fact that Texas led this 8-1 through six thanks in great part in a 4-for-5, five-RBI night from Brandon Nimmo, and three of the A’s runs were scored off former Nationals righty Trevor Williams, who was only signed that day.

Baltimore Orioles (69-70) 2, Colorado Rockies (52-86) 4: It took the O’s just over four months to finally get back to .500 on Monday night with a miraculous catch by Colton Cowser to clinch it. Now they’re right back under after stumbling at Coors. A Jackson Holliday homer in his dad’s old stomping grounds tied it up at 2-2 in the seventh, but Baby Bomber alum T.J. Rumfield struck the decisive blow on a two-run homer after the stretch. The O’s had been just a half-game behind Cleveland for the Wild Card, but now they’re a game and a half back.

Cleveland Guardians (70-68) 6, Toronto Blue Jays (68-71) 1: The Jays entered a three-game set in Cleveland hoping to cut into the Guardians’ lead for the last Wild Card spot and instead took a step back (to 2.5 games behind). Gavin Williams dominated the opener, fanning 13 and allowing just two hits and an unearned run across seven brilliant innings. Patrick Bailey, Angel Genao, and Angel Martínez each hit two-run homers for the Guardians as they turned a 1-0 deficit in the fifth into a 6-1 final.

Happy Wednesday everybody.

Yesterday, the Athletics kicked off their September slate by dropping their fifth straight game and second straight against the Texas Rangers. While the Rangers are vying for postseason baseball, the A’s are on a collision course toward 100-plus losses for the third time in manager Mark Kotsay’s tenure. Given the number of injured players and league worst pitching staff, it seems a matter of when not if the team crosses that benchmark.

Since John Fisher assumed full ownership control of the Athletics in 2016, the club has often overachieved, winning games and making three postseason appearances despite his limited investment in the team.

Before the A’s played last night, the announcement regarding the Los Angeles Angels changing ownership sent shockwaves throughout the sport. It is a particularity bitter pill to swallow for A’s fans, as Fisher will have one less competitor for the worst owner in the league award.

There remains a possibility that Fisher will follow in Arte Moreno’s footsteps and sell the team for a massive amount of money a few years after they get settled in Las Vegas. Until then, fans of the Green and Gold must hope that he increases his investments to keep A’s competitive amidst a changing league.

The new general manager and his staff should receive full authority to upend how this organization operates, from upgrading its player development infrastructure, bolstering its major-league pitching staff and ultimately guiding this historic franchise back to the playoffs.

In the meantime, there are 22 A’s games left before what is expected to be a long, lockout-impacted offseason. Injury-prone outfielder Denzel Clarke seeks to make an impression over the next few weeks, while the team’s young pitchers, including Gage Jump, J.T. Ginn and Elvis Alvarado, aim to end their seasons on a positive note.

Which players are you looking forward to watching over the season’s final stretch? What keeps you coming back despite how this season has unfolded? Also, what qualities should the team look for in its search for a new President of Baseball Operations?

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Rally Too Late in 8-5 Loss to Rangers
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Losing Streak Hits Four, A’s Lose To Rangers 8-1
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Lose 5-3 in Frustrating Performance
• Orioles Defeat A’s 4-3 in 10 Innings
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• A’s Take Series With Finale Win Over Twins 7-4
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Red-hot Bolte looking to build on lessons from rookie season
• ’Kid has been grinding’: Butler’s resurgence, leadership fuel A’s
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• This key change(up) could unlock big success for A’s prospect
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• What Los Angeles Angels sale means for franchise, MLB
• Padres call up 20-year-old catcher Ethan Salas, their No. 1 prospect
• Rutschman out of lineup again with elbow issue that could linger for rest of season
• What’s at stake in September? There’s plenty
• One prospect from each of the 30 MLB teams who deserves more national attention
• Baltimore Orioles claim Luis Robert Jr. from New York Mets
• Luis Rengifo Diagnosed With Torn ACL
• Ketel Marte apologizes to Torey Lovullo, hears boos in return
• Historic NINE homers at Wrigley cap off Cubs’ record-setting (62) August
• White Sox add veteran bats Tommy Pham, Jake Cave
• Here is what the playoff picture looks like entering September
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

This will be a great opportunity for these two A’s minor league prospects to test their skills as they move one step closer to making their big-league debuts.

How do you feel about the Angels’ ownership changing hands?

Further proof of why the A’s should have made more of an effort to retain Sean Newcomb in free agency this past offseason. It also shows just how impactful Nick Kurtz is to this team.

Which of these two All-Stars would you prefer the A’s keep long term?

Good morning everyone!

The Mariners bats came to life yesterday as rookie outfielder Lazaro Montes had a debut to remember in a 9-6 M’s victory over the Red Sox. The two squads are set to square off again today with first pitch at 1:10pm PT.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners are coming off their worst month by run differential in nearly 50 years. Ryan Blake tried to make sense of it all.
• Zach Mason says it’s time for a change around here — the Mariners must fire Humpy.
• Mariners prospect Carlos Jiménez is having a breakout season for the Everett AquaSox. Miguel Riera has the story.

Around the league…

• The Arte Moreno Era is coming to an end in Anaheim — the longtime Angels owner is selling the franchise to Los Angeles Rams owner Stan Kroenke for a record $4 billion valuation.
• Mike Trout was pretty candid in his remarks about the sale, saying this will hopefully “get that winning culture back.”
• The Padres called up top catching prospect Ethan Salas, who is now the youngest active MLB player at just 20 years old.
• Roayls right-hander Carlos Estévez will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery.
• ESPN spoke anonymously to several players to get their unfiltered thoughts on the salary cap and the looming lockout.
• Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray admitted that a recent viral video of him performing as Troy Bolton from High School Musical was in fact him.
• Benjamin Hill broke down the 10 best minor league promotions happening in September.
• Rays slugger Junior Caminero is having a great season — but he’s also grounding into double plays at record pace. Daniel R. Epstein at Baseball Prospectus wonders if he has a shot to make history on that front too. ($)
• Did you know the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had Fangraphs playoff odds greater than 1% in September since 2016? Luke at Bucco Ball yearns for a team that is worth watching late in the season.
• The strange season for Ketel Marte simply won’t end.

Last night we saw two debuts and both went about as well as you could possibly imagine. Yohandy Morales and Jared Simpson were both thrown into the fire, but came out stronger. The two debutants helped lead the Nats to an uplifting win with their families in the crowd. 

Yohandy Morales is the bigger name of the two, but he still had to earn his stripes. After being selected in the second round of the 2023 draft, Morales steadily climbed through the minor leagues. Before this season, he never put up bad numbers, but also never fully broke out.

Like so many Nats prospects, things changed this season. In AAA, Morales finally turned his impressive raw power into consistent home runs. He hit 25 homers at AAA this season. You can make a decent argument that he should have been called up sooner, but he is finally here now. 

Morales found out he was getting called up while he was fishing in the rain with Trey Lipscomb. When Devin Pearson called him, his screen kept freezing. However, the message was eventually received and he called his family.

Morales’ family was in the building last night and went crazy when their boy took AJ Smith-Shawver deep in the third inning. He got a splitter inside and turned his hands inside, driving the ball out to left field. It was a surreal moment for the 24 year old and his family.

Yohandy Morales’ family had to go through a lot to get to this point. His father was a baseball player in Cuba, but eventually defected. He tried to reach the big leagues himself, but could not make it. Instead, his son is the one living out his dream and you could see the emotion when his boy hit that homer.

The slugger’s night was not done after that homer though. He got two more hits including a double that almost went over the wall. Instead it banged half way up the wall and he had to settle for a double. Later in the game, he also got a single, meaning he was only a triple shy of the cycle.

Morales was not the only player to debut last night though. In the 8th round of that same 2023 draft, the Nationals selected Jared Simpson out of Iowa. For most of his career, walks have been a big issue for the lefty. Last season, he walked 57 batters in 52 innings. 

However, he has been in the zone more often this year and that has let him rise through the ranks. Simpson actually spent most of the year in Double-A. After being called up to AAA though, he continued to impress and it earned him a September call-up.

We talked to Simpson before and after the game, and the lefty is quite a funny guy. He said that he knew his stuff played in the MLB when Ronald Acuna fouled off his fastball instead of going yard. Simpson also said that facing Matt Olson was a cool moment because he used him a lot in MLB The Show. 

When Simpson got the call that he was going to the big leagues, he was actually at a Men’s Warehouse in Rochester buying clothes for a buddies wedding. Simpson had to buy some more clothes for his MLB debut too. He did not hide anything from the Men’s Warehouse employees, saying he told them he needed collared shirts because he was going to the big leagues.

Simpson also delivered on the mound. He came into a tight situation, with runners on first and second with nobody out. Simpson started his career with a twin killing, getting Drake Baldwin to ground into a huge double play. He ended the inning by getting Acuna to fly out.

The dream outing continued though. Simpson mowed down the Braves, getting nine outs on just eight hitters. A highlight of his night was painting a slider on the outside corner to Michael Harris to get his first career strikeout. 

Between Erik Tolman and now Simpson, the Nats have a couple new and exciting lefty relievers. Finding effective matchup lefties has been a big problem all season. However, if Tolman and Simpson continue to produce, they could lock down spots for themselves.

Overall, this was a great night for the organization and the two debutants. Neither are the most hyped prospects in the system, but both showed up and produced. That tells you a lot about the development system being put in place. There is true quality depth being built down in the minor leagues.

As we head to 2027 and beyond, hopefully we can see more of these lesser known names make impacts and find big league roles. Pumping out solid big leaguers is a way to find sustainable success. That is exactly what Paul Toboni is looking to do, and so far we are seeing a lot of positive signs. Yohandy Morales and Jared Simpson are just two examples of that.

The San Diego Padres haven’t been doing the best lately. After their ridiculously hot streak, they’ve cooled down significantly, dropping six of their last nine games. The Friars haven’t won a series since they swept the Minnesota Twins in their last homestand. They need a series win against the Cincinnati Reds, and the rubber match is the perfect stage.

Apart from Fernando Tatis Jr.’s two home runs, the Padres weren’t able to muster up much offense in Game 2. Reds starter Nick Lodolo limited the Friars to two runs over six innings before Cincinnati came back with two runs off of San Diego’s bullpen in the eighth inning. It’s the latest in a concerning trend from the Padres’ relievers. Hopefully, the club will be able to turn things around sooner rather than later.

Taking the mound

Brandon Williamson (CIN) v. Casey Mize (SD)

Williamson doesn’t have much experience at the big-league level, having made just 32 starts in parts of three seasons with Cincinnati. Much of that came in 2023, when Williamson made 23 starts for the Reds with a 4.46 ERA. He’s never been particularly effective, but has flashed some decent stuff.

Through six starts this season, Williamson owns a 6.11 ERA (28.0 IP). He’s given up four homers in that time, but has struggled more with command. The lefty has issued 20 walks this season, giving him a 1.64 WHIP. Williamson hasn’t pitched at the major-league level since April 29, so there could be some rust there.

It’s no secret that Mize has struggled as a Padre. Since joining the club, he’s given up an almost unbelievable 21 runs (16 earned). That’s resulted in Mize owning a 6.26 ERA across 23 innings with the Friars. He desperately needs to turn things around, and has proven that he can. Mize was one of the best AL starters, with a 2.70 ERA before being traded to San Diego.

It’s not totally his fault. Mize has been the subject of unfortunate circumstances. He hurt his ankle walking down the dugout steps and wasn’t pitching 100 percent in either start that he made during that time. Apart from his throwing error in his last start, Mize pitched quite well. He surrendered two earned runs across five innings versus the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batter up!

San Diego’s lineup simply couldn’t capitalize on their many scoring opportunities in Tuesday night’s loss. The Friars went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, with all but Tatis struggling to cross home plate. They’ll need their offense working tonight in order to back up Mize.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Samad Taylor, LF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Luis Campusano, C
7. Dustin Harris, DH
8. Xander Bogaerts, SS
9. Jake Cronenworth, 2B

With newcomer Ethan Salas reported to be making his debut on Friday when the Padres return to Petco Park, it seems likelier that Campusano will handle catching duties in the series finale versus Cincinnati. The latter entered yesterday’s Game 2 as a pinch-hitter but will probably start today’s rubber match behind the dish.

Relief corps

Starter Randy Vásquez pitched quite well despite exiting in the fifth inning. He hasn’t been granted the same long leash he was at the beginning of the season, and was taken out by manager Craig Stammen quite early. The Padres went to Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan to finish the game. But it was, surprisingly, Morejon who gave up the game, surrendering two pivotal runs in the eighth inning.

That leaves Jhony Brito, Griffin Canning, Kyle Hart, Mason Miller and Wandy Peralta as options for Stammen to call upon once Mize exits. With the off day on Thursday, the Padres don’t have to worry too much about taxing the ‘pen, but it would be comforting to see a quality start from Mize.

Retail therapy doesn’t work.

We know this, right? Buying something new for yourself — or even just considering buying something new for yourself — can provide a nice little jolt of dopamine. It can brighten up your day and, depending on what it is, help you imagine new and better future versions of yourself. This is true whether it’s something big, like a house, or something small, like a new pair of shoes.

But, ultimately, that jolt of dopamine is only temporary. Material objects — no matter how much we lust over them, no matter what kind of future versions of ourselves they let us imagine — do not actually have the power to fix the underlying and fundamental issues that define the human condition. The existential realities of your life are not altered by a new pair of pants, no matter how comfortably they fit or how how much they make your ass pop.

It’s good to remind ourselves of this every now again. But baseball fans shouldn’t need that reminder. We have the trade deadline.

On the day that Adley Rutschman debuted for the Red Sox, I wrote about the annoying but stubborn fact that, because the trade deadline comes so late in the season and because baseball is a game in which any given player’s impact is mostly felt over the long haul, trade deadline acquisitions are rarely as impactful as we hope they’ll be:

Of the 44 remaining games, Rutschman’s probably only going to start around around 35 of them at most. If he maintains more or less the same level of production over those 35 games as he’s maintained all season, then we’re talking about 3-4 home runs, 6-10 doubles, and 25-30 total hits from Rutschman. That’s not that much!

Well, since that day, the Red Sox have played 22 games. Rutschman has appeared in 15 of them, making only 13 starts. He has just 1 homer, 1 double, and 9 total hits. He is slashing .170/.254/.245. And he’s not going to have much of a chance to bring those numbers up, because we’re going to see even less of him going forward:

I don’t think it’s fair to call the Rutschman trade a failure at this point, or even judge it all. There’s a not very far-fetched scenario wherein he comes back healthy next season and produces at an All-Star level. Maybe he even signs a team-friendly extension. Ten years from now we could look at the Rutschman deal as one of the moves that laid the foundation for a multi-year run of on-field success.

Bu, while it’s still too early to judge the trade overall, it may not be too early to judge the trade deadline — at least with respect to its impact on the 2026 Red Sox.

Viewed through the lens of helping the 2026 team, the Rutschman and Curtis Mead deals have been abject disasters. I’m not suggesting the logic behind the moves was bad — the Mead injury was as freak as it gets — but the results are what they are, and they are ugly.

Eli White has been good as a role player, but he is very much a role player, having had only 33 at-bats. Jake Rogers was fun for a few days. Erik Miller is really the only trade deadline acquisition who has worked out, and he has worked out fantastically. But, even still, middle relievers are only so impactful.

The trade deadline — much like the fall shopping season we find ourselves in right now as summer wanes and a new school year begins — brings with it the promise of renewal. But that promise is rarely kept for long. It’s been one month since the deadline and the 2026 Red Sox are more or less the same team today as they were back then. And guess what? You’re going to be the same person in your new ass-popping jeans, too. That’s not satisfying, but it is an immutable truth about life, one that the Red Sox are learning all over again.

For the first time in nearly three whole months, Will Smith was back in the starting lineup for the start of the Dodgers’ nine-game homestand on Tuesday.

Smith finished the game going 1-5 with a double and two RBI on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, but his impact could only bring so much to the table in what ended up being a 13-8 defeat. The Dodgers are hoping that bringing Smith back into the mix will help invigorate the lineup for the stretch run here in September, and Sonja Chen of MLB.com noted Smith as an “invaluable” part of the starting lineup.

“The experience, the calmness in the box, the managing of the pitching staff — all that stuff is crucial,” manager Dave Roberts said.

Although there were hopes that Shohei Ohtani would pitch over the weekend in Detroit, those chances ultimately fell through as the Dodgers decided to go with Tyler Glasnow for the road trip finale. The Dodgers are still undecided as to when Ohtani will return to the mound, but they do expect to have him back to his two-way duties at some point this season, per Jack Harris of the California Post.

“Obviously, it’s tricky navigating a build-up progression with someone who is also DH’ing by night,” Friedman told the California Post in an interview on Tuesday.

But, the veteran executive added, “he obviously wants to get back out there, helping the team on the mound as well.”

Tuesday turned out to be the roughest outing for Eric Lauer for any home start as a Dodger, as the left-hander allowed seven runs over just three innings, suffering his first loss as a Dodger at home across six starts. Lauer spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA postgame where he discussed how things began to unravel for him, specifically after allowing back-to-back two-out home runs in the second inning.

“I think, overall, my command wasn’t very good— too many misses, too many big misses. I didn’t feel like I really had a good grasp on where the ball was going today, and that obviously hurt. Trying to make in game adjustments, I gotta get better at that, and just making sure I don’t let things compound like that.”

Good morning.

• In a stunning move, Los Angeles Rams owner (among many other teams) Stan Kroenke has agreed to purchase the Los Angeles Angels for a record $4 billion. Rhett Bollinger reports.
• Gabe Lacques writes that with ownership of both the Rams and the Angels, Dodgers owner Mark Walter is no longer the king of LA sports.
• Ryan Phillips believes that Kroenke is the best owner that Angels fans could have hoped for.
• Besides the Rams and Angels, Kroenke owns Arsenal in the Premier League, the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche, the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and other teams. Here’s is a list of his sporting portfolio.
• Brittany Ghiroli notes that with Kroenke buying the Angels, Mets owner Steve Cohen is no longer the richest owner in MLB. (Free The Athletic reg. req.)
• Josh Peter calls soon-former Angels owner Arte Moreno as the “Worst Owner in Baseball.” Yet, as he notes, he bought the team for $183 million in 2003 and is selling it for $4 billion today, so even the worst owner in the game is making out like a bandit.
• Alden Gonzalez and Buster Olney explain what the sale means for the Angels and MLB.
• Russell Dorsey says brighter days are ahead for the Angels and their fans.
• Ken Rosenthal looks at several issues for Kroenke to deal with the Angels (The Athletic sub. req.) but tells Angels fans that the new boss can’t be as bad as the old one.
• Angels star Mike Trout says he’s eager for the “fresh start” that new ownership will bring. (The Athletic sub. req.) He also said he has four years left on his contract and he intends to remain an Angel.
• J.P. Hoonstra has five questions facing the Angels after the sale.
• It’s ironic that shortly before the Angels sale was announced yesterday, The Athletic writers Melody Gutierrez, Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal released about the Dodgers sale to Mark Walter 14 years ago. (The Athletic sub. req.) Walter’s finances have been under question with his sale of the Lakers, and this article claims that MLB owners had questions and were “unlikely” to have approved Walter as owner with his sketchy financing, but their hands were mostly tied by the bankruptcy court judge.
• Matt Snyder thinks that we should all just stop doomcasting. Both the owners and the players have too much to lose for there to be a long, extended work stoppage.
• Following up on a story from Monday, Red Sox radio announcer Will Flemming apologized for calling Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. “bush league” and arguing that Boston should throw at players and start a fight with Chisholm. Sort of. First he took time to complain about all the “calls and threats” he was getting over what he said. Ian Browne reports.
• Chisholm said that he had no desire to talk to Fleming and that not only did he not know who Fleming was but that “I’m still not going to remember who he is after today.”
• Speaking of apologizes, Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte apologized to manager Torey Lovullo for the way he handled his absence last week. Marte was still booed by the home fans at Chase Field.
• Now to games. Brent Maguire explains what is at stake in September.
• Sarah Langs looks at what it means to be in first place on September 1.
• Anthony Castrovince has the ten most iconic records in baseball.
• Ben Clemens is impressed with Mets reliever Nate Lavender, who just made his major league debut on August 4.
• Jay Jaffe looks at how White Sox outfielder Tristan Peters has totally defied (low) expectations in his rookie campaign. Much has been made of how Peters is a former Savannah Banana, although he played for the Bananas when they were still a college wooden bat league team, although they did do a lot of wacky stuff before games and between innings.
• The White Sox also traded for outfielders Tommy Pham and Jake Cave. Both were still eligible to be traded because they were on minor league contracts. Scott Merkin reports.
• Likewise, the Orioles claimed former Mets outfielder Luis Robert Jr. off of waivers. Michael Baumann looks at why Baltimore did this and what they can expect from Robert.
• Bradford Doolittle wants to keep teams with losing records out of the postseason and offers some rules changes to prevent that from happening.
• Despite a terrible season from the Giants, team president Buster Posey announced that first-year manager Tony Vitello will be back next season.
• Guardians right-hander Carlos Hernández has missed all of 2025 after an off-season car accident in his native Venezuela. Hernández now reveals he was texting and driving when the accident happened and wants to serve as an example to others of what not to do.
• I wish it could have happened when the Reds were playing the Cubs, but Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suárez will miss two games as he takes his US citizenship test. Good luck, Geno!
• Beloved French “Voice of the Expos” Jacques Doucet has passed away at 86. Our sympathies go out to his friends, family, and all of you who still consider yourselves an Expos fan.
• And finally, if you want to feel old, 27-year-old Darren Baker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants. (Free The Athletic reg. req.) For those of you too young to remember, don’t rub it in. Also, Baker is the son of Dusty Baker who, at age 3, served as the Giants’ team batboy in the 2002 World Series and almost got run over at the plate were it not for a quick-thinking J.T. Snow. Baker is asked about that incident all the time but he always has the same response—he was too young to remember it.

When Hall of Famer Todd Helton retired after 17 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the carousel of replacements at first base has made for a grueling search to fill his position. For 13 years, the Rockies have tried again and again to find a first baseman who could provide stability and production at first base, but again and again they failed to do so. Helton set the bar high for the position, and no player has quite been able to reach it.

Until now, perhaps.

TJ Rumfield has had a phenomenal year for the Rockies as a rookie. We’ve sung his praises plenty here at Purple Row, as he seems to have solved the riddle of first base for the club and has a compelling case to be in the Rookie of the Year conversations more than he already is.

As the season has progressed, it’s become apparent that Helton and Rumfield share similarities in their playstyles. How similar are their rookie seasons? Let’s dive into some of the numbers and see what we can find.

Surface value

A glimpse at the standard counting stats shows that Helton has the upper hand in nearly every category (more on the other stat in a moment).

In 152 games during his true rookie season in 1998 — after appearing in 35 games in 1997 — Helton proved to be a productive middle-of-the-order bat that could hit for power and drive in runs. He slashed .315/.380/.530 and benefited greatly from the fearsome lineup surrounding him, featuring four of the remaining Blake Street Bombers, and the pre-Humidor environment of Coors Field.

Rumfield has proven to be a steady bat in the lineup despite the statistically weaker lineup than that of the 1998 team. He has some power hiding in his bat, but he focuses on making contact and getting on base, as he is slashing .290/.383/.437, which has helped him keep pace with Helton.

According to Baseball-Reference, their value is nearly identical. Helton accumulated 3.2 rWAR in 1998 while Rumfield currently sits at 3.3 rWAR. FanGraphs has quite a bit more disparity between the values, with Helton accumulating 2.9 fWAR and Rumfield 2.1 fWAR. Helton is the overall better player, which is absolutely reasonable and expected after all, but Rumfield is keeping pace in his own way,

While they aren’t exactly replicas of each other, it’s the similarities that are making Rumfield such an effective player this season and could help him raise his level of play in the seasons to come.

On-base machines

Let’s direct our attention to the ability that made Helton so incredible in his career and has been the highlight of Rumfield’s rookie season: getting on base.

In franchise history, the list of rookies with at least 500 plate appearances and a .380 OBP in a season is as follows:

• 2026: TJ Rumfield (.383)
• 1998: Todd Helton (.380)

That’s it; that’s the list.

As we know, on-base percentage is the rate that a player gets on base by either a hit, a walk, or a hit by a pitch. By both accounts, Rumfield and Helton excel in the two main parts of the stat’s distinctions.

Entering the final month of the season, Rumfield has 136 hits, which leads the Rockies. In 1998, Helton tallied 167 hits, which was good for fourth on the team. Now, Helton was a true hitting machine as he tallied 49 multi-hit games during his rookie year, including several four-hit games. Meanwhile, Rumfield has 34 multi-hit games, including one four-hit game. With 23 September games left to play, Rumfield could have a chance to match Helton’s rookie total, which is second in franchise history behind Troy Tulowitzki’s 2007 season total (177). Rumfield has averaged about 26 hits per month this season, but to match Helton, he needs 31, which would be a month-high this season.

As for the walks, that is where Rumfield takes the crown. Helton was always known for impeccable vision at the plate, and that translated into a solid walk rate throughout his career. In 1998, he managed 53 walks for an 8.9% walk rate, the second-lowest rate of his career. Rumfield currently possesses an 11.6% walk rate while surpassing Helton’s walk total with 63. In fact, Rumfield is likely to overtake Dexter Fowler (67) for most walks in a season by a rookie in franchise history before this week is through.

Plate discipline

The plate discipline is what is so strikingly similar between these two players. Both have been excellent at getting hits and drawing walks, but the process leading up to them is what is so interesting.

It became a trademark for Helton to deliver grinding at-bats because it was so difficult to strike him out. During his rookie season, he struck out just 54 times with a 61.3% strike rate. He was a little more eager to swing the bat back then but still averaged 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, which was above league average. Helton would average about 4.1 pitches per plate appearance the rest of his career. He made plenty of contact (88.5%) and attacked pitchers with a 29.2% swing rate on the first pitch, which isn’t a lot but enough to do damage. Such a contact-oriented approach is what made Helton successful and complemented his ability to hit for power. Let’s not forget he had a .530 slugging percentage that season with 25 home runs and 37 doubles.

Rumfield has also proven to be a stickler at the plate with a quality contact bat. Sure, he has 75 strikeouts, but that is the 24th fewest in baseball this season. Much like Helton, he has a 61.5% strike rate and has averaged 3.77 pitchers per plate appearance. That may be lower than league average this season, but that’s because Rumfield is aggressive with his 42.5% swing rate on first pitches and has a solid 80.3% contact rate. There isn’t a specific stat to indicate how many foul balls either player hit beyond the ones that counted for strikes, but it’s safe to say that Rumfield does swing earlier and more often than Helton, but tends to put more bad pitches in play. Still, Rumfield has managed a .437 SLG with 13 home runs and 26 doubles.

Splits

As mentioned before, Helton thrived at Coors Field in 1998. He mashed to the tune of a .354/.417/.585 slash in 77 games with 13 home runs and 61 RBI. That type of production made the split so drastic on the road, despite Helton putting up quality numbers. In 75 road games, he batted .273/.340/.470 with 12 home runs and 36 RBI. He took advantage of his home ballpark, but Coors Field did not create Helton. He struck out more on the road, but that’s simply because opposing pitchers were terrified of throwing to him at Coors Field, so he walked more.

Rumfield, on the other hand, has been consistent regardless of whether he’s at home or away. At Coors Field, he is slashing .290/.375/.459 with eight home runs; while on the road he is batting .290/.391/.416 with five home runs. Nearly every stat for Rumfield is similar, save for RBI, because he’s just had fewer opportunities on the road. Much like Helton, Coors Field is not defining Rumfield, but rather highlighting that he is a great hitter regardless of where he plays.

The same can be said of the platoon splits. Both players are at their best against right-handed pitching with Helton punishing righties for 20 home runs and a .318 AVG. Rumfield is batting over .300 against righties as well with 11 home runs but his numbers do take a dip against lefties despite being solid enough. He only has two home run, but his .266 AVG and .367 OBP are quality enough numbers to keep him in the lineup every day instead of a platoon. Helton saw fewer opportunities against southpaws in his rookie season, but still bashed them for a .304/.394/.482 slash with five home runs in 133 plate appearances.

Either way, the ability to adapt and find consistency at the plate regardless of the varying factors is a valuable trait that so many Rockies have failed to develop over the team’s history.

Defense

Lastly, let’s touch on defense.

Over the course of his career, Helton won three Gold Gloves and was always regarded as one of the best defensive first basemen of his generation, if not baseball history. As a 24-year-old rookie, his score of 9 Total Zone in runs above average indicates that his fielding saved the Rockies roughly nine runs more than a statistically average major league first baseman would have saved over that same playing time of 146 games.

This gave him a 9.76 Range Factor per 9 innings, which was comfortably higher than the league average of 9.46 for first basemen that year. He committed only 7 errors on 1,317 total chances for a .995 fielding percentage.

Rumfield matches up with an 8 TZ, tying him for the MLB lead among first basemen. Rumfield actually accumulated his eight runs in fewer innings than Helton (982.1 vs 1,208.0). Because Rumfield plays in the modern era, his defense is also validated by modern tracking data, showing an outstanding 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average.

The eye test helps us understand that Helton was a quality receiver at first base, but new metrics help us actually put into context how Rumfield is at manning his position and the growth he still needs to make. In his case, the eye test still holds water, and he’s become a sound first baseman for the Rockies this season and deserves to be a contender for a Gold Glove.

Conclusion

The numbers tell a clear story: Rumfield’s disciplined eye, split-neutral bat, and surprisingly stellar glove match up with Helton’s 1998 campaign in ways few thought possible for a rookie.

While Helton remains a franchise icon whose rookie ceiling was elevated by a legendary surrounding cast, Rumfield is carving out a dynamic identity of his own. He is getting on base at a historic clip, anchoring an infield defense in desperate need of stability, and giving Rockies fans their first genuine taste of long-term answer at first base since Number 17 walked away.

Whether Rumfield takes home the Rookie of the Year hardware or a Gold Glove this fall, one thing is certain: the 13-year search is officially over. The Rockies have finally found their guy at first base, and the best may be yet to come.

On the farm

Triple-A: Tacoma Rainiers 6, Albuquerque Isotopes 3

The Albuquerque Isotopes out-hit Tacoma 11-10, but scored just three runs as they lost 6-3. Every Isotope had a hit, with Bryant Betancourt going 3-for-4. Roc Riggio also contributed his third home run, a solo shot in the sixth inning. The Isotopes went 3-for-5 with runners in scoring position, while the Rainers with 3-for-10 with RISP. It was a bullpen day for Albuquerque as Ryan Miller made the start with two innings of work, giving up a run. Blake Adams followed and took the loss after giving up four runs in the fourth inning. Parker Mushinski then gave up a run in 1.1 innings, followed by a trio of relievers who gave up just one hit.

Double-A:Hartford Yard Goats 5, Reading Fightin’ Phils 3

The Hartford Yard Goats collected 11 hits, but it didn’t pay off until they scored three runs in the seventh inning to take the lead for a 5-3 victory. Andy Perez, Jacob Humphrey, and Cole Messina each had two hits to lead the offense. Perez and Messina both doubled in runs in the seventh and Jared Thomas delivered an RBI single to cap the scoring. On the mound, Sam Weatherly fired two scoreless innings to start the game and was followed by four innings from Cade Denton, who allowed three runs. Victor Juarez and Austin Smith closed out the game with three scoreless innings.

High-A:Everett AquaSox 7, Spokane Indians 1

It was a tough night offensively for the Spokane Indians as they scored just one run on six hits in a 7-1 loss. Spokane’s lone run came in the second inning on an RBI double from Clayton Gray to score Robert Calaz. On the mound, Aiden May made the start, allowing four runs on seven hits over 3.2 innings of work. The bullpen fared better, allowing three runs in three hits over 4.1 innings between four arms.

Low-A:San Jose Giants 8, Fresno Grizzlies 6

Tied 4-4 through the first seven innings, the Fresno Grizzlies and San Jose Giants combined for six runs, with the Giants coming out on top 8-6. Fresno took a brief lead in the bottom of the eighth, but San Jose scored three in the top of the ninth. Ashly Andujar had two hits for Fresno, while Juan Martinez also had two hits and drove in four runs. Sandy Ozuna made the start, allowing three runs through four innings of work. Grif Hughes then delivered four strong innings, allowing just two runs on one hit. Yanzel Correa had a rough night, giving up the three runs on two hits in the ninth.

Rockies Reacts Survey: Where will TJ Rumfield finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting?

Affected by Altitude Episode 223: The Final Countdown (of 2026) | Rocky Mountain Rooftop

This week, Evan Lang and I talk about expectations for the final month of the season, the struggles of Tomoyuki Sugano, and the Cole Carrigg finger incident.

Rockies ‘unlikely’ to call up top prospect Charlie Condon in September ($) | The Denver Post

Due to the looming lock out in December, it would appear the Rockies are going to hold off on calling up Charlie Condon to ensure he can continue utilizing the team’s resources in the offseason and also leave a 40-man spot open for other players they need to protect in the offseason.

Get the best of Purple Row on the new SB Nation app! | Purple Row

In case you missed the news, SB Nation has released a new app! You can easily access the Purple Row community to read articles, participate in game discussion threads, and access other communities.

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Rolando Fernandez, vice president of international scouting & development for the Rockies, has organized a GoFundMe for former Rockies prospect Gabriel Barbosa. Barbosa was recently diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer and is preparing for the arrival of his first child.

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