Worldwide Sports News

Ever since Artemis II launched a little over two weeks ago, I’ve felt an itch in my bones. The itch for Kerbal Space Program. I finally gave in tonight, while watching the Seattle Mariners get swept by their legally mandated rivals, the San Diego Padres. Tonight’s 5-2 loss comes on the heel’s of last night’s 9th inning disaster and puts a sour taste in the team’s mouth as they head back north. But whereas last night the Mariners were gallant right up to the bitter end, tonight’s game they were just goofus. It almost looked like the game of baseball was alien to them.

For those not in the know, in the video game Kerbal Space Program, the player takes on the task of guiding little green aliens to outer space using real rocket science and orbital mechanics. It is not an easy game, nor a simple one, but it is, and this is important, incredibly goofy. The rockets wobble and explode, the buildings burn, the satellites crash, and through it all the little green guys just keep smiling. And, in a strange way, I see either the Seattle Mariners in them, or Kerbals in the Mariners. Watch this old announcement trailer and see if you catch my meaning.

When Brendan Donovan led off the game with a walk, it was a nominal liftoff. And then he detached his boosters before they were out of fuel, and got himself picked off at first for the second out of the inning. Whoops. Later on, Luke Raley hit a nice line drive in the second inning, but activated the parachutes too early. So instead of banging a double off the wall, he allowed Fernando Tatís Jr. to make a shoestring catch to end the inning.

In KSP, the player’s main adversaries are two forces of nature: atmospheric drag and gravity. But for the Mariners, the padres have been playing so well and are on such a streak that they may as well be considered forces of nature, as inexorable as the force that guides the arc of a home run ball. Or in the case of the Padres, a bunch of annoying seeing-eye ground balls that get through for singles and score a run. But hey look! One of them hit a hot shot to Naylor at first! Now he can turn a double play!

Uh-oh, Josh dropped it. There he learned a valuable KSP lesson: you can’t go too fast too low. Just Josh rushing to transfer the ball while still in a crouch caused him to drop the ball, your rocket going too fast too low in the atmosphere is just going to waste fuel and produce unnecessary heating. In rocket science, just as in baseball, it’s often better to slow down, take your time, and take some of the (atmospheric) pressure off yourself. But because Josh wasn’t able to turn that double play and end the inning, one run scored directly, and then two more Padres came across the plate to make it a 4-0 ballgame.

Offensively, the Mariners looked a little lost at the plate, as if Walker Buehler’s sweeper was as incomprehensible to them as the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation. I mean, what part of Δu = V_eqln (mf/me) − g₀ ⋅ tb is hard to understand? The Mariners made two big threats. The threat in the 4th failed to even go suborbital as a pair of leadoff singles by Donovan and Raleigh were left stranded.

The threat in the 6th succeeded in breaking through the atmosphere, however. This time, after a pair of leadoff singles by Young and Donovan, Cal hit a line drive that made splashdown in right field and scored Cole Young easily. Now finally mortal, the Padres were forced to replace Buehler.

Julio followed up Cal’s Apollo mission with an Artemis mission, also hitting a line drive into right that scored a runner from third. Now, with runners on first and second with nobody out, then the bases loaded with one out, the Mariners were poised to finally enter orbit a tie or take the lead from the Padres. But then they ran out of fuel. Connor Joe pinch hit for Luke Raley and struck out on a high fastball, and J.P. hit a routine groundball to end the inning. There would be no orbit and, for the Mariners, no more spaceflights. They’d never get so close to the Padres again.

In fact, the Padres managed to rub some salt in the wound in the 7th when, with runners on second and third, Cole Young lost a pop up in the San Diego sky and dropped it, giving the Friars another run.

Mercifully, that inning, and the remaining two, were soon ended, completing the San Diego sweep putting the Seattle Space Program on hold. Perhaps its time to go back to the drawing board in the Vehicle Assembly Building and start over with a new design. Put Julio at first base. Make Cal pitch. Have George Kirby play shortstop. That’s the kind of thing I do in KSP when my rocket just flat out isn’t working. And you know what? It usually works.

The Mariners return home tomorrow for a 3-game set against the Texas Rangers. After also being swept by Texas a couple weeks ago, some wins against a divisional rival are exactly what this team needs right now. The most demoralized fans among you would say that beating the Rangers this weekend is a dream. But what can I say? I like to shoot for the moon.

The Atlanta Braves’ day off began with another bullpen shuffle, and this time, right-hander Ian Hamilton got the call. In addition to his selection, the club optioned lefty Hayden Harris to Triple-A Gwinnett and designated righty Osvaldo Bido for assignment. 

30-year-old Hamilton joined the Braves in December of last year and has yet to make his Atlanta debut. He’s thrown just 6.1 innings in Gwinnett this season, where he owns a 2.84 ERA. He’s given up just one base on balls and whiffed nine. 

Harris was called up earlier this week and did not get a shot at big league action. As for Bido, the move is a direct result of his lackluster outing against Miami.

More Braves News:

The Braves, who have yet to lose a series, are beginning a road trip full of NL East foes, and first, they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game set. 

Bryce Elder has been effective early this season and is shaping up to be a regular in the starting rotation.

Jim Jarvis is on a nine-game hitting streak down in Triple-A. More in the minor league recap. 

Luke Williams has rejoined the Braves on a minor-league deal, per the transaction log. He was designated for assignment earlier this week and elected free agency.

MLB News:

The Washington Nationals acquired left-hander Richard Lovelady from the New York Mets in exchange for cash. The Mets designated him for assignment over the weekend. 

From the Feed:

Brian Snitker will be inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame on April 25, and there’s a slate of special guests that will be in attendance.

The Colorado Rockies entered their series finale in Houston against the Astros needing a win in the worst way. Losers of six straight on the road, the Rockies could have ended their road trip with seven consecutive losses with a daunting match-up against the Los Angeles Dodgers quickly approaching.

The Rockies got the memo. Despite a shaky start from opener Juan Mejia, the Rockies pitching was largely excellent. They held the strong Astros offense to just two runs on their way to a victory that no doubt resonated in the clubhouse.

Cold Open

With the Rockies scuttling to get the most out of their pitching staff due to injuries and heavy bullpen use during this road trip, righty Juan Mejia was begged as the opener. Mejia threw just over half of his 30 pitches for strikes and recorded two strikeouts, but three singles and a hit by pitch helped the Astros jump head to an early lead. Mejia was pulled after recording just two outs.

Cut to the Chase

Chase Dollander turned in one of the best performances of his young career operating in bulk relief of Juan Mejia. Dollander consistently dialed up high velocity on his fastball—regularly hitting 100 MPH—and induced a 44% whiff rate on the pitch. He also made strong use of his slider and changeup (with 40% and 43% whiff rates, respectively) as he struck out a career high nine batters in 5.1 scoreless innings.

Dollander held the Astros hitless until his final inning of work. In the sixth inning a leadoff walk to Isaac Paredes and a double deflected off the glove of third baseman Kyle Karros had runners on second and third with no outs. Dollander proceeded to bear down with a gutsy finish. After getting noted Rockies killer Christian Walker to ground out without advancing the runners, Dollander struck out the next two batters to end the inning with no damage done.

See what happens when you don’t strike out 15 times?

Tonight was one of the Rockies’ most disciplined games at the plate so far this season. The Rockies struck out just five times against the combined Astros bullpen—including the opener Ryan Weiss—while chasing significantly less than previous games over this road trip. They also drew six walks.

Unfortunately, that didn’t necessarily equate to runs. The Rockies scored just three runs on nine hits, going 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and leaving nine men stranded.

Tyler Freeman, Hunter Goodman, and Brenton Doyle were the Rockies’ heroes at the plate. Freeman went 3-for-5 with an RBI without striking out—though he did ground into a momentum-killing double-play—while Hunter Goodman both went 2-for-3 with a walk. Doyle put his speed to good use with two stolen bases while Goodman hit his fifth home run of the season.

Bend, but don’t break.

Dollander gave way to Jaden Hill, Jimmy Herget, and Victor Vodnik. All three relievers faced traffic but kept the Astros off the board. Hill walked two and gave up a hit, but managed to navigate the inning unscathed while Herget also gave up a walk. Vodnik also issued a walk, and a towering fly ball off the bat of Isaac Paredes gave Rockies fans flashbacks as it looked like they were about to be walked off yet again. However, the ball fell into Mickey Moniak’s glove at the wall and Vodnik earned his second save of the season.

Coming Up Next

The Rockies are heading back to what might be a chilly and snow-touched Coors Field tomorrow to start a four-game series against the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers. Tomoyuki Sugano 菅野 智之 will make the start for the Rockies, looking to continue building on his excellent start.Tyler Glasnow will go for the Dodgers. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM MDT.

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By now, you have probably heard that Parker Messick threw 8 n0-hit innings against the Orioles. What more is there to say?

Messick is such a special competitor. And, at this point, I find myself wishing Austin Hedges could catch all our pitchers because he seems to get them all to dominate. Messick kept hitters guessing all game long. 36% of Messick’s four-seamers were either called-strikes or whiffs, and 29% of his cutters. And, with that said, I don’t understand how anyone ever makes contact on his changeup.

Now, with 106 pitches, manager Stephen Vogt rightly let Messick try to get a no-hitter, but Leody Tavares got a 103.5 mph single past Juan Brito and then Blaze Alexander hit another ball hard for a single. Vogt got Cade Smith at that point, who continues to make things interesting in the 9th. He allowed a single, a sac fly to Gunnar Henderson that was very close to a grand slam, and a double to Pete Alonso, before getting a pop fly and a groundout. The final groundout was the hardest struck ball of the game at 107 mph, and Juan Brito made a nice sliding play and throw from a seated position. Hopefully that helps the young infielder flush the memory of his atrocious play in the bottom of the 9th in St. Louis that cost the Guardians a game.

Cade Smith needs to begin locating his secondary stuff more consistently or we may be in for a Joe Borowski year in the Guardians’ closer position. Cade, no one wants to go full Borowski. Reel it in, buddy. IN CARL WE TRUST.

Jose Ramirez smoked a two-run homer in the first on the first pitch he saw of the night. That was good to see. Jose also got a single and a walk as his OPS climbs steadily back toward .800 plus. Brayan Rocchio had a double, Steven Kwan and George Valera both had two hits. It has been nice to see the Guardians win some games as Chase DeLauter goes through a hitting adjustment period.

This was a great win. I hope the Guardians can figure out a way to beat the Orioles three times this week and help me shake the bad taste that Cardinals’ series left with me. Watching Parker Messick absolutely carve up other teams already went a long way to helping in that effort.

Sometimes you need a clickbaity title for fun, and sometimes the extreme title is actually justified. This might be one of those times.

In the early going, there aren’t a tremendous amount of statistics that mean much of anything, or at least that mean enough to re-evaluate what we think about a player.

As an example, here are the statistical leaders by various metrics:

• wRC+: Danny Serretti (200)
• BA: José Mejía (.406)
• OBP: Kayson Cunningham (.533)
• SLG: Manuel Pena (.778)
• Line Drive Percentage: Jose Alpuria (58.3%)

With the exception of Alpuria (who has 30 plate appearances) none of these players have reached 50 plate appearances yet, and it takes at least 60 plate appearances for any of the available stats at lower levels to mean anything. So hats off to Cunningham, getting on base more than half of the time, but it’s probably unsustainable.

Only four hitters (all at Reno, of course) have reached the requisite 60 plate appearances for their stats to mean anything, and it isn’t all of their stats.

The first stat that means anything is bat speed, for the simple reason that bat speed has nothing to do with results or luck. Unfortunately, we don’t have bat speeds for hitters in AAA. The next stat to becoming meaningful is hard hit rate and exit velocity, and by the time 60 plate appearances are reached, strikeout rate becomes meaningful. BABIP, when combined with the exit velocities and hard hit rates, has a meaning, but the meaning lies in the interpretation, as BABIP is a stat which varies widely from year to year and really tells us nothing other than how lucky or unlucky a player has been.

There’s two more stats that are ancillary to these, one of which is fairly well known and the other of which is not as well known. Launch angle is the average angle at which the ball leaves the bat; ground balls have negative launch angles, statcast defines line drives as batted balls with a launch angle between 10 and 25 degrees, but an ideal launch angle is probably in the 15-35 degree range, depending on exit velocity. Too high a launch angle and the batted ball is a harmless fly out or pop up; too low a launch angle and there’s no chance at a home run.

Not as well known are various permutations of exit velocity. Tom Tango (the brain power behind a lot of Baseball Savant) views average exit velocity as a useless stat, for the simple reason that it is measuring a lot of useless data. Baseball Savant provides a stat called “adjusted exit velocity” which measures batted balls in relation to a cutoff point of 88 MPH, below which velocity means practically nothing. Tango prefers EV50, an average of the 50% hardest hit balls. That’s what I have here (only easily available on prospectsavant.com) but keep in mind as well that batted balls below 88 MPH are regarded as valueless in terms of exit velocity. It will be important later

As mentioned above, four players have reached 60 plate appearances and some preliminary conclusions can be drawn. I’ll cover them without names at first, because our opinions of these players certainly cloud our perceptions.

Before going further, please quickly vote on which of these players is having the best season so far.

Now to provide a little bit of context for these stats. Players A-C have all been top-100 prospects at one time or another, but their history on the one stat that means something and can be compared throughout their career is quite different. Player A has carried a strikeout rate of just under 20% through his career prior to this season. Player B has been even lower, at about 15%. Player C, on the other hand, had a sky high 30% strikeout rate prior to this season. And Player D, the lone player among these who has never been a top-100 prospect, posted a 13.5% strikeout rate prior to this season.

Unfortunately, we do not have the numbers for hard hit rates or exit velocity at previous levels, nor do we have bat speed numbers at any level.

Player A is Tommy Troy. He’s got a slash of .317/.408/.417, which are some good numbers, but not eye-popping for Reno. He’s only hitting the ball hard a quarter of the time, and his EV50 is below the cutoff point for value of 88 MPH, and not by a little bit. Despite that, he’s managed to post a BABIP of .429, which is partially attributable to his speed, but is mostly a function of luck.

Player B is Ryan Waldschmidt. That incredible .311/.417/.557 slash line is being upheld by high BABIP despite three problems. His strikeout rate is close to 30%, which is basically double what he’s done in his career previously. His average launch angle is 24 degrees, and while the average is a good number, having that high of an average indicates a lot of high fly balls or pop-ups. And his EV50 is in the bottom half of minor leaguers with Statcast data. In order for the top 50% of his batted balls to average out to 89.6 MPH, he has to hit a lot of balls below the dreaded 88 MPH. Note that I am not saying that he’s not playing well; he’s having a great season in many ways. I am saying that a player who is expected to be a key part of the franchise for years to come does not need to be called up to the major leagues when experiencing struggles he’s never dealt with before, regardless of how gaudy the numbers are. He’s going to figure it out and be fine, but people really need to pump the brakes on calling for his promotion.

Player C, and the most surprising for me, was Kristian Robinson. His slash of .240/.350/.460 doesn’t look like much, but remember his BABIP is 100 points lower than any of the other three. He still strikes out too much, but it’s at least come down to respectability (and he’s striking out less often than Waldschmidt, something I never thought I’d type in a million years) and walking more than any of the other three, although walk rate isn’t really predictive at this point. He’s the only player in this group who would be expected (based on his quality of contact) to post better numbers than he is posting. He’s smashing line drives the other way, and despite concerns about his speed diminishing, he’s still got quality wheels. While his EV50 is in the 88^th percentile, that is either among all batters or all qualified batters; among players with at least 50 plate appearances, he has the fourth best adjusted exit velocity.

Player D is LuJames Groover. His .359/.440/.453 slash may be more sustainable than other hitters with his underlying numbers simply because of the type of hitter he is, but given his lack of speed (sprint speed is not available at AAA, but his Fangraphs speed score is catcher level) he needs to hit for more power. But he makes a ton of contact and isn’t striking out. But he’s also not hitting the ball hard, and it’s been shown time and again that the best predictor of a successful big league career is how hard a player hits the ball.

It’s hard (or perhaps impossible) to have much faith in Robinson at this point. But it would be proper to note that his stint in AAA last season saw a similar reduction in strikeout rate (it actually started in Amarillo) but that was combined with lower exit velocities. He still swings and misses a ton. Still, according to the statistics that mean something at this early point, he’s the hitter in Reno who looks the most big league ready, with Groover close behind.

Hopefully the Diamondbacks will not need any position players called up in the near future, especially with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. nearing a return. But if they do, I believe that they would be better served calling up Robinson at the moment (depending on positional needs, of course) than they would be breaking the glass on Waldschmidt.

One final note: this was written prior to the games on Wednesday, and I’m not going to update all the numbers, although they have changed somewhat. Waldschmidt walked twice, while Robinson struck out twice, meaning that Waldschmidt’s strikeout rate has dropped below Robinson’s. But Robinson also hit two balls over 105 MPH, both for singles, and given that he hit no other balls, his EV50 has increased even further and his hard hit rate likely reached 50%. Groover and Troy both failed to pick up a hit.

All systems nominal: Cal Raleigh (=.09 WPA)

Scrub the launch, we’ve got a problem: Luis Castillo (-.25 WPA)

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