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It’s a light slate across Major League Baseball today, but even with limited MLB player props on the board, a few home run props are clearly standing out.

As always, price drives the card — and today we’re getting both value and form.

Corbin Carroll and Drake Baldwin check both boxes, offering strong market prices to go along with favorable matchups and hot bats.

These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, April 2.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Corbin Carroll	+540
Drake Baldwin	+560

Corbin Carroll (+540)

On a thin slate, Corbin Carroll at +540 stands out as one of the best HR values. Some books have already moved this closer to +350, which is much more in line with fair value, and the FanDuel number is starting to follow.

He faces Reynaldo López, who missed most of last season. While he looked sharp in his opener, he still allowed a home run, and left-handed hitters have historically had success against him.

A return to peak form would be a surprise, with THE BAT projecting a 4.63 ERA and weaker HR prevention than other models.

Carroll already has two homers this season, and was the difference in a 1-0 win over the Detroit Tigers yesterday. When he’s locked in, he has real MVP-level upside.

Chase Field isn’t a top-tier HR park, but Carroll has already gone deep there twice in three games and gets another strong opportunity at a great price.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, BravesVision

Drake Baldwin (+560)

Drake Baldwin is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, leading his team in multiple offensive categories and matching the rest of the lineup with three home runs entering Thursday.

He’s slugging .773 with a 60% hard-hit rate and is hitting in the two-hole. He's already logged five plate appearances in two of his six games, which is more important than it might seem.

Ryne Nelson allowed two home runs in his season debut and relies heavily on contact to get outs — not an ideal profile against a hitter swinging this well.

On a slate with limited late-game options, getting one of the hottest bats at +500 or better is an easy addition to the card.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, BravesVision

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For the second time this season, the San Diego Padres needed to win the third game of a series to avoid a sweep. The Padres did just that with a 7-1 win over the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park on Wednesday. Opening Day starter Nick Pivetta bounced back with a critical performance that resulted in five innings of one-hit baseball.

San Diego struggled on offense throughout the series, but the lineup showed signs of life in the third game of the series against San Francisco. The Padres have been lacking in slug throughout the first five games of the season and have ranked near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category. San Diego had 10 hits in the win over San Francisco and five of those were for extra bases (four doubles and one home run). It was a welcome sight for many of the Friar Faithful and probably for manager Craig Stammen and his team.

The Padres entered the bottom of the eighth inning with a 3-1 lead and Mason Miller had just gotten the final out in the top of the eighth, looking for a four out save. The San Diego offense took all the drama out of the end of the game with a four-run inning that gave the Padres a 7-1 lead heading to the ninth.

Manny Machado started the bottom of the eighth inning with a leadoff double. Ramon Laureano, who had a rest day on Tuesday, homered to make the score, 5-1. Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets walked before Freddy Fermin struck out for the first out of the inning. Bryce Johnson walked to load the bases for Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres leadoff man hit an infield single that could not be handled by Giants pitcher Jose Butto or third baseman Matt Chapman, which allowed a run to score to give San Diego a 6-1 lead. Xander Bogaerts followed with a bases loaded walk to force home a run and push the score to the final of 7-1. The inning ended when Jackson Merrill tapped a ball into fair territory that was fielded by catcher Daniel Susac who touched home and threw to first to end the scoring threat.

Miller came out for the top of the ninth and allowed a single to Luis Arraez before striking out the next three batters to end the game and secure the save. The Padres are off Thursday and will travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox for their Opening Day at Fenway Park on Friday at 11:10 a.m.

Padres News:

• The San Diego minor league system is coming to life for the 2026 season with the El Paso Chihuahuas, San Antonio Missions, Fort Wayne TinCaps and Lake Elsinore Storm all in action this week.

• Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball took a look at what went wrong for San Diego in the loss to San Francisco in the second game of the series. He focused on the diminished defense in left field as a result of Nick Castellanos getting the start over Ramon Laureano, who was given the day off.

• The Padres have gotten off to a 2-4 start to the season, but it isn’t for lack of support from the Friar Faithful. San Diego played six games at Petco Park to start the season and each one was a sellout.

• JP Sears made a start for San Diego Triple-A affiliate El Paso and he delivered a solid outing that lasted five innings. Sung-Mun Song continues his rehab assignment with El Paso and went 1-for-5 with an RBI.

Baseball News:

• Baltimore Orioles catcher Samuel Bassalo challenged a third strike with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, and the ABS System overturned the called ball by the umpire resulting in strike three and the end of the game in a Baltimore win over the Texas Rangers. It’s the first time a game has ended with an ABS challenge.

• Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara needed less than 100 pitches to throw a complete game to lead the Marlis to a win over the Chicago White Sox.

• Zac Gallen and Tarik Skubal went head-to-head when the Arizona Diamondbacks took on the Detroit Tigers, and it was the Arizona right-hander who led his team to a win.

• Cleveland Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams struck out 10 and helped his team beat the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday. Matthew Boyd also recorded 10 strikeouts to lead the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Angels.

• Rookie Justin Crawford capped a Philadelphia Phillies comeback over the Washington Nationals with a walk-off single.

Making his second regular season start as a Met, Freddy Peralta was very sharp on Wednesday afternoon. 

With the series on the line, the right-hander delivered the performance the team was looking for, but his offense couldn’t pick him up and they ended up being walked off by the Cardinals in extras. 

Still, it was an encouraging performance from the Mets’ new ace. 

Peralta picked up Francisco Lindor after he forgot how many outs there were in the bottom of the first, quickly striking out the next batter to end the inning with just five extra pitches thrown.

He then settled into a groove and retired the next nine batters he faced, picking up three more strikeouts along the way, before allowing the first two to reach with a walk and single in the bottom of the fifth. 

The righty was able to work his way out of danger, though, rolling a pair of groundouts and picking up a big strikeout with some help from an ABS challenge. 

He put the first two on again in the sixth, but this time recorded just one out before being pulled from the ballgame.

Peralta was visibly frustrated as he wanted to continue on as Carlos Mendoza walked out and signaled toward the bullpen, but after taking some time, he agreed with the decision afterward.

“I like to compete and I always want to stay in the game,” he said. “I knew that part of the situation I wasn’t able to finish was because I gave up a base hit to the leadoff guy -- at the end of the day, I think it was smart by Mendy.”

Huascar Brazoban entered and allowed a two out RBI knock to Nolan Gorman, but limited the damage to just that to keep the game evened at one heading to the top of the seventh. 

New York, of course, ended up falling in the 11th but it was a strong effort put forward by Peralta with just the one run allowed on three hits and two walks while striking out seven in 5.1 innings. 

"He was really good," Mendoza said. "The changeup usage was pretty impressive, a pitch that he didn’t use until like the fourth in his first outing, but today we went right to it especially with the lefties they had in the lineup.

"There was also life on the fastball, the way he mixed -- he wasn’t afraid to double-up on the changeup and triple-up when he needed to, he got swing-and-misses which made the fastball play a lot more, overall he was just really solid.”

Peralta is lined up to toe the rubber again in Tuesday’s series opener with the Diamondbacks.

Meet the Mets

One day after getting shut out, the Mets could only muster one run in the finale to drop the series against the Cardinals. All their offense came off a solo home run by Juan Soto that followed Francisco Lindor getting picked off. They still had a chance to redeem themselves in both the tenth and eleventh but they could not even push the ghost runner across. The pitching remained solid but this offense has been putrid outside of Opening Day and hopefully they packed their bats for the next series in San Francisco.

Choose your recap:Amazin’ Avenue, Daily News, LoHud, MLB.com, Newsday, NY Post

The good news is that the offense keeps getting chances, but the bad news is that they continuously keep failing to capitalize on those chances.

Meet the new Mets who are making the same mistakes as the old Mets.

Freddy Peralta was good in his second start striking out seven St. Louis batters.

Keith Hernandez is on the IL with a back issue and will miss calling the next five games, but Todd Zeile came to the rescue to fill in calling the games with Gary Cohen.

A rather earnest young Mets fan from Manchester, U.K is vowing to run a mile for every Mets home run hit this season.

Former Met Adam Ottavino is reportedly joining ESPN as an analyst.

Around the National League East

Chris Sale was solid on the mound again for the Braves in their 5-1 win over the Athletics.

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara looked like his former self in Miami’s 10-0 win over the White Sox.

After the game, the Marlins got a birds-eye view of the Artemis II launch from their charter flight.

Justin Crawford got the game-winning walk-off hit in the Phillies 6-5 win over the Nationals.

Despite having a 5-1 lead late, the Washington bullpen could not hold it in Philadelphia.

Around Major League Baseball

Former umpires weighed in on the new ABS system and what challenges it presents for current umpires during the game.

Despite viewers cutting the cord that does not necessarily mean the death of local regional sports networks.

The Pirates are reportedly in talks to extend top prospect Konnor Griffin.

Paul Skenes earned his first win of the season with a good bounceback outing from Opening Day.

Cam Schlittler got his second start of the year and has yet to give up an earned run for the Yankees.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

On the latest episode of A Pod of Their Own, the beginning of the season and the return of J.D. Martinez was discussed.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1984, Davey Johnson made his debut as the manager of the New York Mets.

Watching the Braves’ first six games of the year, it’s hard to really seize on any one thing that cements their identity as distinct from other teams, or the Braves teams that have come before. Not that these things have to come in the first six games, and sometimes, even if they do, it’s not clear that they’re going to be a throughline for the entire season. But, it’s certainly possible — Nick Markakis’ Opening Day walkoff in 2018 was I guess an early sign of the ridiculous team of destiny that particular Braves squad was going to be, the Braves clobbered their opponents in three of their first four games in 2023, Sean Murphy got hurt on Opening Day 2024, the 0-7 start to 2005, you get the idea.

This team so far, though… I don’t know. Any ideas? They’re top ten offensively in both outputs and inputs, but that’s come due to a lot of walks and barely any strikeouts… and the guys that are walking a ton aren’t hitting, except for Drake Baldwin. I guess “Team of Drake Baldwin” is an early contender, as he’s been scorching through these first two series. Another standout aspect so far has been the defense, but that’s about it. The Braves are also a top-ten pitching team, but not in a remarkable way, unless you factor in the defensive contribution to run prevention. And, of course, there’s a potential identity to be mined in “has absolutely no idea what they’re doing on the bases,” but I hope they course-correct there soon.

There’s also the overarching narratives of the pitching staff being barely held together, but that at least hasn’t gotten worse yet. Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes both looked rough here and there, but the Braves didn’t really suffer for it, not yet — and Bryce Elder had a patented Good Elder (Bryce Eldar) start.

Anyway, I guess you can make your predictions here. How will we remember this team in terms of what it did, whether on the field or off?

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Giants play a four-game series in San Francisco starting on Thursday night...

5 things to watch

Will Nolan McLean hit the ground running?

McLean didn't have a great feel for his pitches at the outset of his first start of the season last Sunday against the Pirates, walking the first two batters he faced. The young right-hander was searching a bit over the first three innings, with manager Carlos Mendoza saying McLean didn't really find it until the fourth inning.

Even without his best stuff, McLean performed well, allowing just two runs on four hits while walking two and striking out eight in five innings.

As the game went on, McLean got more comfortable and his stuff started to overwhelm Pittsburgh. 

Five of the last seven outs McLean recorded came via the strikeout -- four swinging and one looking.

On the day, McLean threw 84 pitches (generating 12 swings and misses) while mixing in his full six-itch arsenal. 

Power outage

With Pete Alonso departing for the Orioles, it felt likely that the Mets might not hit as many homers in 2026 as they did in 2025, when they smacked 224 -- good for fifth-most in the majors.

It should also be noted that aside from Opening Day, when the temperature was in the low-70s, the Mets have not played in weather that is optimal for the ball carrying.

Still, they entered play on Wednesday having hit just three home runs in their first five games -- one each by Carson Benge, Francisco Alvarez, and Luis Robert Jr.

It hasn't just been the Mets when it comes to low home run totals in the early going.

Fifteen teams (exactly half the league) entered play on Wednesday with five home runs or fewer, including the Tigers, Yankees Red Sox, and Phillies. 

Is there a bullpen conundrum?

Of the eight pitchers in New York's bullpen, one of them (Sean Manaea) is a starting pitcher whose usage won't be regular, while another (Tobias Myers) is a multi-inning weapon who will often need multiple days off between appearances.

Myers, who has been terrific in his role, is obviously going nowhere.

But it's been a bit of a challenge early on for Mendoza while trying to juggle the rest of the bullpen. 

Add to the above the fact that Brooks Raley is not yet being used on back-to-back days, and the struggles of Richard Lovelady, and you get a bit of a conundrum.

If the Mets' starting pitchers don't regularly start giving the team six or seven innings, it feels like there will have to soon be another arm added to the mix who can pitch far more often than Manaea or Myers are able to, or be a lot more effective than Lovelady.

The Giants' offense has been anemic

San Francisco mustered just 13 runs over the first five games of the season, better than only the Padres, Royals, and Twins.

That included only four runs total in their first four games before erupting for nine runs against the Padres on Tuesday.

The Giants were especially hapless against the Yankees, scoring one run in three games as they were swept in the season-opening series in San Francisco.

Against the Yanks, San Francisco was shut down by Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, and Will Warren. Fried and Schlittler both have great stuff. Warren, not so much. 

Can the Mets get to Logan Webb?

Webb was tagged by the Yankees on Opening Night, allowing seven runs (six earned) on nine hits in five innings.

He was better his second time out, allowing three runs in six innings against the Padres, but struggled with his command as he issued four walks.

Webb had a 3.22 ERA (2.60 FIP) and 1.23 WHIP while tossing an MLB-high 207.0 innings in 2025, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting. 

He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2021, and has had his way with the Mets -- with a 3.21 career ERA in 42.0 innings over seven starts. However, he'll obviously be facing a version of the Mets that is much different than the one he went up against over the last five years. 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto has been locked in at the plate early.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Kodai Senga

Senga's fastball was explosive during his first start of the year on Tuesday against the Cardinals.

Which Giants player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Luis Arraez

Arraez's elite contact rate means his ability to be a pest in any given series is high. 

The Yankees’ pitching staff as a whole has been magnificent, allowing six runs across their first six games and tallying three shutouts in the first five. Max Fried has been at the forefront of this staff-wide domination, not allowing a run across his first two starts and 13.1 innings. His second start of the year came against the Mariners and he looked even more in control than on Opening Day, limiting Seattle to three hits and a walk across seven shutout. His command was sharper at T-Mobile Park than it was at Oracle, allowing him to strike out six batters. While it was certainly encouraging to see the uptick in swing and miss, the moment we’ll zero in on today focuses on his ability to make exactly the pitch needed to induce soft contact and get out of a jam.

We join Fried with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, Josh Naylor having erased a Julio Rodríguez leadoff single with a ground-ball double play. However, after cruising for most of his start, Fried now faces his toughest challenge, a Randy Arozarena HBP and Brendan Donovan single putting runners on first and second as Fried is fighting to hold off the fatigue long enough to complete seven strong.

Fried has already faced Victor Robles twice this game, getting him to fly out on a first-pitch cutter in the second before whiffing him on a changeup in the fifth. After deploying the cutter first pitch in those two encounters, Fried decides on a first-pitch four-seamer here.

Fried misses his spot low and away; reaching back for extra velocity caused him to pull this pitch inside for ball one.

Despite the imperfect execution of the previous pitch, Fried sticks with the four-seamer.

He misses his spot again, but this time over the plate enough to entice Robles to chase. It’s a smart miss, the elevation above the zone causing Robles to foul it back and level the count at 1-1.

After two straight four-seamers up and in, Fried chooses a different type of fastball, this time looking to bury the cutter in on Robles’ hands.

This is awesome pitch sequencing from Fried. Following a pair of consecutive four-seamers off the plate, this looks like a cookie right down the middle. However, unlike the four-seamer which stays on plane vertically while fading slightly to Fried’s arm-side, the cutter has late movement glove-side and down. Robles isn’t able to distinguish this pitch from the two four-seamers that preceded it and is unable to adjust his swing plane. Thus, the ball eats him up inside, Robles getting jammed while the late downward tilt takes the ball even further below the barrel causing him to pound it into the dirt foul at home plate.

Now that Fried has shown Robles a fastball that breaks in on his hands, he has a chance for the punchout looking if he can start a four-seamer in off the plate and tail it back across the inside corner. There’s even an opportunity to get Robles to whiff should he recognize the four-seamer late and still swing.

Fried locates this four-seamer perfectly on the inside edge of the zone. However, it’s just low enough that Robles is able to fight it off foul with practically the handle of the bat to stay alive.

Fried has shown Robles four straight fastballs up and in and has sped up his swing to the velocity of the fastball. That means it is the perfect opportunity to throw his first off-speed pitch of the encounter, Fried choosing a changeup off the plate away looking for the strikeout swinging.

Fried executes the pitch to his spot and is rewarded with a favorable outcome, Robles lining a lazy fly ball to the opposite field to strand the pair of runners. If we’re being picky, the location of the changeup is probably a few inches too high, which is what allowed Robles to make contact instead of whiff. However, this is the magic of managing your misses as a pitcher. Fried made sure that at the very least he commanded this pitch out of the zone away. The changeup is therefore too far away from Robles for him to pull it, while the movement down and away from his barrel prevents him from hitting it with authority to the opposite field. Fried is one of the masters in the game at limiting damaging contact, and pitch is a perfect example of how he does that.

Here’s the full sequence:

Outside of his lone ALDS start against the Blue Jays, Max Fried has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for when they signed him winter before last. He has been an invaluable stabilizing presence at the top of the rotation, giving the Yankees a consistently reliable ace in Gerrit Cole’s absence. If these first two starts are anything to go off, it looks like he is taking his game to an even higher level in his second year in pinstripes, setting the tone for the rest of the pitching staff.