A recent report from The New York Post’s Jon Heyman suggested that the San Diego Padres might return to their former Seidler-spending ways this offseason, even getting into the bidding war for the services of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal has long been sought after by other clubs, and teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets will factor in as well in the bidding. He’s likely to receive the largest free agent contract ever for a pitcher, with most analysts estimating his value to be somewhere around $50 million annually.

That number blows the previous record of $43.33 million (Max Scherzer, Mets), though that was only for three years. Skubal would likely be locked up for much longer than that, and under a no-trade clause.

The war for Skubal

Skubal will, without a doubt, break that record. The only question is by how much.

The sole way that number could be dampened is by injury. He’s never not dominating on the mound, it seems like a certainty in life: death, taxes, and Tarik Skubal going six quality innings. But if he were to require surgery, there would be a major question mark entering free agency. He would likely still garner a large salary, but it could cause the AAV to dip.

Here’s the thing, though. Of the three teams mentioned thus far in the bidding (Dodgers, Mets, Padres), San Diego has the best reason to sign Skubal.

The Dodgers are hardly short on starting pitching, with a rotation headlined by Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even with their injuries they still manage to piece it together every year.

They don’t need the southpaw’s services nearly as much as others, but they’ll be bidders simply because they like to spend. They’ve now picked up a top free agent in three consecutive offseasons, and four of the last five (Freddie Freeman, 2022; Shohei Ohtani, 2023; Roki Sasaki, 2025; Kyle Tucker, 2026).

On the other hand, the Mets desperately need consistent starters. They have a rotation with huge upside, but they’ve largely missed the mark. The only one producing right now is Nolan McLean (who could win NL Rookie of the Year this season).

But — if GM David Stearns manages to keep his job amidst New York’s torrid start to the year — he’s shown a hesitancy to extend pitchers contracts longer than a couple years. Skubal will be looking to attain a bit more length than that.

San Diego has the most compelling case for a true ace like Skubal. Both Michael King and Nick Pivetta have opt-outs in their contracts after this season, and they each seem likely to test free agency. Bob Nightengale of USA Today even wrote that “As long as he’s breathing at the end of the season, [Pivetta will] opt out.”

The Friars, like they do every year, need certainty on the pitching front. They’ve got Vásquez for 2027, but that’s about it. It’s possible they retain Pivetta given the flexor strain that’s kept him off the mound for the foreseeable future. But King will likely walk given he’s pitched like an ace again after an injury-plagued 2025.

A return to the Seidler way

If San Diego is actually in on Skubal this upcoming offseason, it would mark a return to the spending ways of former owner Peter Seidler. He shelled out just about everything he had in order to field a winning team for the Padres. And, although Seidler accomplished his vision, he never got to see the club win a World Series before he passed away in 2023.

José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones would like to see it happen. The two purchased the club for a $3.9 billion valuation with their stake in the club being up to 40%, according to Dennis Lin and Mike Vorkunov of the Athletic.

Other investors will join as minority owners. It seems likely that the Seidler family will retain some level of ownership. Drew Brees and Vuori’s Joe Kudla had been reported to desire joining ownership so they could be in on the club as well. Alfredo Harp Hélu also stated that he will retain his 15% stake in the organization.

But regardless of that, there’s a question of the Feliciano-Jones ownership’s commitment to spending. Feliciano, through his private equity firm Clearlake Capital, has owned Chelsea F.C. of the Premier League. Chelsea has had problems with their ownership in recent years, but they have been the biggest-spending club in the league.

Is Feliciano’s move to the Padres a desire to step out and create something of his own away from the ownership drama with Chelsea? Or was he the cause of Chelsea’s problems and ousted by the other owners to pursue something else?

It’s difficult to say until more is revealed about the two. San Diego has yet to formally announce the sale of the club, as the minority ownership still has to be sorted out. Once it is, the owners of MLB will convene and vote in Feliciano and Jones, though that process is mostly a formality.

But for the Friar Faithful the team being sold is great news. Each offseason, the Padres have felt like they were simply treading water instead of actually competing with other teams. They’ve managed to hold up until now, coming off of consecutive postseason appearances and 90-win seasons, but the Seidler family has pulled back the reins on Peter Seidler’s bodacious spending of the past.

If Feliciano and Jones return to that spending, the Friars might be unstoppable. With rockstar GM A.J. Preller in the manager’s chair for the club (with a bigger wallet to boot), San Diego could be even more of a championship-caliber team than they already are. That makes it easy to dream of Skubal in brown and gold.

Last season, Seaver King swung at 53.1% of pitches in the minors. That is much more than the average big league rate, which hovers around 46%. This over aggression is part of what contributed to a rough first pro season for King. Now, the former first round pick is only swinging at 39.8% of pitches, but is doing much more damage.

In over 500 at bats last season, Seaver King hit just six home runs. Armed with a new approach, King already has four homers, a feat he did not accomplish until the middle of June last year. It is clear that King is hunting for his pitch and driving it when it comes. If he does not get his pitch, he is perfectly content to take it.

Seaver King has gone from an ultra-aggressive hitter to a patient one seemingly overnight. Plate discipline is usually one of those skills that is harder to teach. Guys like Juan Soto are just born with an ability to know the zone, while it is tougher for hitters like Javier Baez. King seemed to fall into that latter category, but so far the Leopard is changing its spots.

By swinging less, King is also inevitably walking more. After walking at a 5.8% clip last season, he is taking free passes over 17% of the time this year. While King is the most extreme example of this, we are seeing less swinging throughout the Nats organization. 

Right now, the Nats have 11 minor league hitters who are walking over 15% of the time. Last season, they only had three, and all of them were either in the Dominican Summer League or the complex, where pitchers don’t throw many strikes. Even if that number drops to 7 or 8, it would be much higher than any season in recent memory.

You can search just about any prospect in the Nats system on Fangraphs, and almost all of them are swinging less. Yeremy Cabrera has cut his swing rate from 45% to 41%. Eli Willits has gone from 46.4% to 44.1%, while Luke Dickerson has gone from 46% to 40%. Devin Fitz-Gerald and Abimelec Ortiz are two other notable players who cut their swing rates down.

There are still some aggressive hitters thriving in the organization right now like Ronny Cruz and Cayden Wallace. However, it is clear that the new front office wants players to swing less and do more when they do swing. After years of watching the Nats ground ball heavy and free swinging offenses, this approach is a breath of fresh air.

The roots of this rebuild are developing at the minor league level, but you can see this philosophy taking hold at the big league level. Plate discipline and contact skills are a big reason why the Nats targeted Jorbit Vivas and Curtis Mead. We are also seeing players like CJ Abrams and Brady House walking more often.

Surprisingly, it feels like the hitting development improvements are having a quicker impact than the pitching development stuff. I figured it would be the other way around, but I am very happy to see Nats hitters having success at all levels of the organization. We are seeing plenty of breakout hitters in the minors like King, Ronny Cruz and Yeremy Cabrera.

I think the new front office is a big part of this success. They are not going to magically turn everyone around, but you want to see consistent success stories. We are seeing those success stories early in the season, and it helps you buy into the front office’s vision.

The Nats walking more often at all levels is no accident. Between the messaging and the new tools at players disposal, this is part of a master plan. Down in Fredericksburg, batters hit off a machine that throws harder and produces nastier stuff than any Low-A arm they will see. 

That should get them ready for the game and make those at bats easier. I remember going to a batting cage and hitting against the hardest level, then going back to a slower one. It was so much easier to hit, and the ball felt so big. That must be what it feels like for these guys during the games.

Nothing beats having a plan and seeing it come to fruition. That is what we are seeing from Paul Toboni and the Nationals. They wanted their guys to swing less, and they have. It has been something that has caused positive change as well. The newly patient Seaver King now has a .944 OPS in AA, far better than the .600 OPS he mustered last year. 

We knew some prospects would benefit from the regime change, we just were not sure who. Now, we have a better idea of who the biggest beneficiaries are. The hyper athletes who needed refinement like Seaver King and Ronny Cruz are coming into their own now that they are being developed by this new regime. Sometimes less is more, and that is what Seaver King and other Nats prospects have learned this season.

Max Scherzer may have to consider another home remedy for his arm woes.

Scherzer, the Blue Jays' 41-year-old right-hander, was placed on the 15-day injured list by Toronto Monday, April 27 due to right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation.

Scherzer, who credited playing the piano with an extended run of good health heading into the 2025 playoffs, was rocked for seven earned runs in 2⅔ innings of his April 24 start. He entered the outing needing one strikeout to become just the second pitcher in the past 24 years to reach 3,500 strikeouts.

But Scherzer failed to register a strikeout in the start, leaving him one shy of the milestone. He has posted a 9.64 ERA in five starts in his 19th major league season.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers look for their fourth win in five games as they open a three-game set at home against the Miami Marlins.

My Marlins vs. Dodgers predictions and free MLB picks have the home team continuing its recent dominance of the visitors.

Who will win Marlins vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)

There’s been nowhere to hide for the Miami Marlins’ pitching staff against one of the best lineups in baseball.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won seven of the last eight against Miami, and plenty of those have been blowouts. L.A. has scored at least seven runs in each of their wins on this run, cracking double digits four times.

That’s not a good sign for Marlins’ starter Chris Paddack, who’s 0-4 with an inflated 6.38 ERA.

The Dodgers' offense is second in the bigs, averaging 5.68 runs per game, so it’s all setting up for another beating on Monday.

COVERS INTEL: Max Muncy has picked up hits in eight of his last 11 games. He’s hit Paddack hard in 15 at-bats, with two doubles and two home runs.

Marlins vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-104)

The Dodgers and Marlins have combined to go Over the total in eight of the last nine meetings, and none of them have been cheapies. 

In fact, the lowest total set between these teams during this stretch has been 8 runs, and it's gone as high as 10 runs twice, with both cashing the Over.

The only concern might be that the Dodgers will trot out ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he wasn’t even that sharp last time out, surrendering a season-high three earned runs while taking the loss against the Giants.

Still, L.A. can do much of the heavy lifting on its own.

Marlins vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +245 | Dodgers -300
• Run line: Marlins +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Marlins vs Dodgers trend

Each of the Marlins' last 11 road games vs the NL West opponents have cashed the Over. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Marlins vs Dodgers and game info

Marlins vs Dodgers latest injuries

Marlins vs Dodgers weather

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For the first time this year, the White Sox have had a week that did not end with a losing record. And the first half of the week brought the first back-to-back series wins of the season. Unfortunately, however, the second half saw a return to a lack of power and run support.

Going into this week, there were home run streaks abound. Munetaka Murakami entered Tuesday with three straight games with a home run, Colson Montgomery had two games, and Miguel Vargas was on the precipice of a streak with one home run. On Tuesday, Sam Antonacci hit his first MLB home run: After a rules check, the inside-the-park home run was confirmed, making for a unique first “long” ball:

By Wednesday, Mune tied the franchise record with five straight games with a home run, Montgomery recorded his fourth, and Vargas hit the trifecta. But even though Thursday brought a cool-down for the trio. Andrew Benintendi picked up the slack with a go-ahead blast in the Phoenix finale.

That win meant for first time since 2021, the White Sox won 10 games before May 1.

When the Pale Hose arrived home on Friday to begin a series with the Nationals, Murakami homered again, moving into a tie for the MLB home-run lead with his 11th of the season:

Then, the home runs stopped, and frankly so did the fun. The power outage resulted in back-to-back extra-innings losses to the Nationals to drop a weekend series in Chicago.

As the hitting peaked for the week, the pitching found a groove.

• Davis Martin added another quality start to his season, pitching 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball on Thursday in Arizona. He walked only one batter and struck out seven. Martin is dominating the race for the title of ace for the 2026 season. If he continues like this for another month or two, he will find himself in Philadelphia for the All-Star Game.
• In Friday’s win against Washington, Erik Fedde came in after Bryan Hudson’s open and threw 5 2/3 innings of three-run baseball. Even though only one of those would be an earned run, he would leave the game in a position to lose. That became a moot point when Antonacci hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth. Fedde’s ERA is less than 3.50 for the first time since April 11.
• Noah Schultz continued to endear South Side fans, with a six-inning outing on Saturday that resulted in two runs for the Nationals against eight strikeouts. He ended up banking the first no-decision of his career.
• On Sunday, Sean Burke was not only efficient but dominant, after Hudson received the honor of opening a second game of the weekend. Burke came on in the second inning and shut Washington down. He only struck out four in 7 1/3 innings, but he gave up no runs during that time to keep the game tied into the bottom of the ninth. He too would not get a decision in the game, as Seranthony Domínguez earned his third loss of the season after giving up two runs in the 10th.

This brings us to the not-so-great pitching moments of the week:

• Jordan Leasure is first on this list. On Friday, the reliever gave up a game-tying home in the top of the eighth to Brady House. He would vulture the win in the game, thanks to Antonacci’s sac fly in the bottom of the inning. However, on Saturday Leasure allowed the Nationals to score four runs in the top of the 10th inning; had he held the inning scoreless, the South Siders could have won, 3-2.
• Domínguez also gets a special shout-out for his poor performance this week due to Sunday’s game. He entered the closing game of the series with three consecutive saves; however, he entered this game with a tied score. Rather than shut the offense down to keep the home offense in the game, the “closer” gave up two runs, including a homer, to earn the loss.
• Honorable mention goes to Anthony Kay, who balked in a run during Wednesday’s 11-7 loss.

Other random news and highlights from the week included:

• A stellar diving play by Everson Pereira in Tuesday’s 11-5 win against the Diamondbacks. The catch saved at least one, if not two runs from scoring:

• Murakami flashed some leather of his own in Thursday’s win to get the second out of the fourth inning:

• Speaking of Murakami, he and Montgomery became the first pair of teammates in MLB history to each hit homers in four consecutive team games. The first baseman is also the only player in baseball history to have 10+ home runs and 20+ walks in their first 25 career games. He may still be batting .232, but he is quickly becoming a fan favorite.

• Reese McGuire was designated for assignment, making way for Drew Romo to make his White Sox debut. The White Sox are not out of all $1.2 million, as the veteran was released early enough in the season that he was owed nothing beyond what he has already been paid. Chris Getz sometimes does work smart.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are making their way to Chicago to begin the week with a three-game set, and from there the White Sox will head to San Diego for the first weekend of May.

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game set beginning Tuesday evening to wrap up their homestand. Milwaukee is coming off a series loss to the Pirates to begin the homestand, though they did pick up their first shutout win on Sunday, taking that one 5-0 behind a strong 12-strikeout showing from Kyle Harrison.

On the other side, Arizona is returning from their series split with the Padres in Mexico City, as they dropped Saturday’s game 6-4 before a comeback win on Sunday. They sit at 15-12 on the season, one game better than the 14-13 Brewers.

Milwaukee’s injured list (luckily) hasn’t grown much, but it also hasn’t shrunk. First baseman Andrew Vaughn and outfielder Jackson Chourio are both on the verge of rehab assignments as they recover from hand injuries, while Quinn Priester made his second rehab outing with Nashville over the weekend. He’s hoping for an early to mid-May return. Relievers Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny are both hoping to return in May, too, while outfielder/DH Christian Yelich is still shelved with a groin strain.

The Diamondbacks are missing a whole bunch of players, so let’s split them up into pitchers and position players. For the pitching staff, Blake Walston (midseason), Andrew Saalfrank (out for the season), Justin Martinez (second half), old friend Corbin Burnes (midseason), A.J. Puk (midseason), and Cristian Mena (TBD) are all out. Offensively, Arizona is without Pavin Smith (TBD), fellow former friend Carlos Santana (TBD), Jordan Lawlar (June), Tyler Locklear (mid-May/early June), and Gabriel Moreno, who is expected to rejoin the team for this series after missing the last couple of weeks with an oblique strain. Right-hander Zac Gallen and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo are also considered day to day with minor injuries, though Gallen is not lined up to pitch in this series.

Offensively, the Brewers haven’t homered in the last week, and they’ve struggled with inconsistency throughout the early going of the season. Brice Turang had a rough week but still led the team with four RBIs, as he’s now hitting .258/.391/.462 with four homers, 18 RBIs, 20 runs, and seven steals this season. Gary Sánchez and Jake Bauers lead the team with five homers. Garrett Mitchell has also shown flashes of his potential, and William Contreras remains a team leader. Beyond that, there isn’t much to say about the Brewer offense. As a team, Milwaukee is hitting .231/.329/.349 (.678 OPS ranks 26th), with 19 homers (tied for last), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 36 steals (first).

Much as Perdomo did a season ago, Ildemaro Vargas has quietly turned into one of the best hitters in baseball this year with Arizona. Over 20 games, he’s hitting .367/.383/.722 with a team-high six homers, 20 RBIs, and 18 runs scored. Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte each have four homers, while Corbin Carroll has three homers, four triples, and four steals. Jose Fernandez also has three homers and a .342 batting average thus far. Adrian Del Castillo, Aramis Garcia, James McCann, Tim Tawa, Jorge Barrosa, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Alek Thomas round out the roster (note: the team also added Jesus Valdez as the 27th man for the Mexico City Series). As a team, Arizona is hitting .255/.310/.426 (.736 OPS ranks seventh), with 27 homers (tied for 20th), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 16 steals (tied for 21st).

Aaron Ashby and Grant Anderson still lead Milwaukee’s bullpen in appearances, with DL Hall turning in a solid 2.31 ERA over 11 outings. Abner Uribe has had some bumps this season, but he looked good over the weekend against Pittsburgh. After a hot start, Angel Zerpa has struggled in recent weeks, while Trevor Megill has had a reverse trajectory. Jake Woodford and Shane Drohan round out the current bullpen depth chart. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.82 team ERA (eighth), including a 3.59 starter ERA (fifth) and a 4.09 bullpen ERA (15th). They’ve struck out 250 batters (ninth) over 240 1/3 innings.

The Arizona bullpen is led by Juan Morillo, who has a 1.98 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. Closer Paul Sewald is a perfect 7-for-7 in save opportunities, but he has a 4.50 ERA and three losses. Former Brewer minor leaguer Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loáisiga have matching 3.29 ERAs over 13 2/3 innings. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, Andrew Hoffman, and swingman Brandon Pfaadt (five appearances, three starts) round out the bullpen. As a staff, the D-backs have a 4.53 team ERA (24th), including a 4.62 starter ERA (25th) and a 4.67 bullpen ERA (22nd). They’ve struck out 204 batters (29th) over 240 1/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, April 28 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Chad Patrick (1-1, 2.35 ERA, 4.37 FIP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (1-1, 9.31 ERA, 9.02 FIP)

Patrick has had a solid season thus far, even if the underlying numbers don’t back that up. He has a 2.35 ERA, with six earned runs on 21 hits and eight walks over 23 innings, striking out just 11. After DL Hall opened for him on Wednesday night in Detroit, he went four innings, getting roughed up for four runs on six hits and a walk, striking out two. A fourth-round pick by these D-backs back in 2021, he made one start against them last season, spanning 4 1/3 innings with no runs allowed on five hits and two walks, striking out three in a no-decision.

Kelly, 37, is in his eighth MLB season. A former three-time draft pick (in 2007, 2009, and 2010), Kelly spent four seasons in Korea before breaking through with Arizona in 2019. He spent his first six full seasons with the D-backs before being traded at last year’s deadline to the Rangers. He returned to Arizona this offseason and, after starting the season on the IL, has made two starts this year. His first start against the Orioles resulted in a win as he allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings with three strikeouts, but his last time out, he got roughed up by the White Sox, allowing eight runs and striking out five over 4 1/3 innings. For the season, he’s totaled 9 2/3 innings with 10 runs allowed on 15 hits (four homers) and seven walks with eight strikeouts. Kelly has made 10 career appearances against the Brewers, with a 5-2 record, a 2.95 ERA, and 60 strikeouts over 61 innings. His only start last season came while with Texas, when he picked up the win despite allowing three runs on 10 hits, striking out six over 5 2/3 innings.

Wednesday, April 29 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Sproat (0-1, 6.45 ERA, 6.02 FIP) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez (2-0, 2.89 ERA, 4.98 FIP)

Sproat, who got out to a horrid start in his first two outings, has looked much better in his last three appearances. He took a no-decision on Thursday in Detroit, as he went 5 1/3 innings with three runs allowed on four hits and two walks, striking out four on 76 pitches. The former second-round pick has never faced the D-backs before.

Rodríguez, 33, is in his third season with the D-backs after signing a four-year, $80 million contract that runs through 2027. While his ERA hovered just over 5.00 in each of his first two seasons in the desert, he’s had more statistical success this season. Even though his 4.98 FIP is near that 5.00 mark, he has a 2.89 ERA with 10 runs allowed (nine earned) and 18 strikeouts over 28 innings through five starts. He’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts (against the Orioles and White Sox), spanning 10 innings with seven strikeouts. Rodríguez has made four career starts against Milwaukee, with an 0-3 record, a 4.58 ERA, and 16 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings. That includes a pair of starts last season — both losses — in which he totaled 8 2/3 innings with eight runs allowed (seven earned) and four strikeouts.

Thursday, April 30 @ 12:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP) vs. RHP Michael Soroka (4-0, 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP)

Woodruff just took his first loss of the season on Friday night against Pittsburgh, as he had the tall task of going head-to-head with Paul Skenes, who has his A-plus-plus stuff in a 6-0 Pirate win. Woodruff allowed three runs in that one, giving up five hits and two walks while striking out three. For the season, he’s totaled 28 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 23 strikeouts. Woodruff has made eight career appearances (seven starts) against Arizona, with a 3-1 record, a 4.81 ERA, and 49 strikeouts over 39 1/3 innings. One of those wins came in his lone appearance against them last August, when he allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings but picked up eight strikeouts in a 7-5 Brewer win.

Soroka, 28, is in his seventh MLB season and with his fifth team. After agreeing to a one-year, $7.5 million deal this offseason, he’s been a bright spot for Arizona early this season. Through five starts, he’s a perfect 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 34 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings. His last start was his lone no-decision of the year, though he still went five innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts in a game the D-backs ultimately lost late. Soroka has made two career appearances against Milwaukee, one with the Braves (2023) and one with the White Sox (2024). In those two appearances, he went 1-1 with seven runs allowed over seven innings, striking out six.

How to Watch & Listen

Tuesday, April 28: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Wednesday, April 29: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Thursday, April 30: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Prediction

I think I’m going to start writing these predictions with the caveat that it really just depends on which Brewer offense shows up. I’ll bet on the Crew, though, and predict they take two of three this week.