Melbourne ran on to the MCG to a pyrotechnics show, lashings of Bon Scott and a cacophony of boos. It was notionally Melbourne’s home game, but it was Carlton’s crowd. The Demons were the higher ranked team and had the songs after goals, but the Blues were the ones riding the wave and had the game’s tune.
For the first hour however, it seemed as though the brand of football Blues coach Josh Fraser has cultivated may not hold up in a knockout game. When Melbourne moved the ball, they moved it with purpose, with precision and with speed. Carlton’s ball movement was more laboured and slipshod. Their entries into the forward 50 were as shallow as the boundary umpires’ throw-ins. Blues captain Patrick Cripps was forced to ruck at times, which was like watching Daniel Day-Lewis bob up in an episode of Hey Dad. Most of their early goals came through sheer will. The Blues bludgeoned their way to parity, but the Demons still looked the superior team.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 22: Asdrubal Cabrera #13 of the New York Mets celebrates after hitting a game winning walk-off three run home run in the bottom of the twelfth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on September 22, 2016 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) | Getty Images
No matter what marker you use – whether the calendar flipping to August, the Trade Deadline, or August 15 (as Keith Hernandez recently explained on a broadcast), we’re officially in the stretch run of the regular season. While the 2026 Mets may not have much to compete for, there’s still a thrill in watching established stars and up-and-comers alike slam on the gas pedal to cross the season’s finish line on a high note.
In that spirit, I’ve selected a roster of position players who put together some of the best stretch runs in Mets history, primarily weighing individual performance with a slight edge given towards those who made a meaningful impact on a playoff-bound team. I looked at players’ performances only from Game 113 on (in a normal 162-game season, that’s the final 50 games) and put those stats in italics under each player’s bolded name in their entry. Only time will tell whether Carson Benge (currently batting .343 with a 1.009 OPS since entering the 50-game stretch on August 9) might make his way onto the list by season’s end.
Without further ado, here is my All-Stretch-Run team…
C – MIKE PIAZZA, 1998 .378 avg, 1.169 OPS, 13 HR, 48 RBI
Piazza hit the ground running from the moment he landed in New York via trade on May 22, posting 5.4 bWAR in just 109 games while maintaining a .348 average. As the season wound down, he only seemed to get better, batting .326 in July, .347 in August, and .378 in Sept/Oct. The future Hall of Famer had other tremendous stretch runs, particularly in ’99 and ’01, but his introduction to Mets fans late in ’98 still stands as his best.
Was it an absurdly offense-rich environment? Sure. But Pete Alonso’s stretch of 19 homers in 50 games as he raced to set the franchise home run record and then the all-time rookie home run record is still a marvel. Alonso’s 2021 and 2025 stretch runs were arguably more impressive showings as an all-around hitter in more pitching-friendly seasons, but 2019’s home run total is simply too awesome to beat.
In his lone All-Star season, the 26-year-old Alfonzo entered the break batting .318 with a .955 OPS, both of which would have been career-best marks had he simply maintained them. Instead, he raised them over a stellar second half, finishing with a .324 average and .967 OPS. In the postseason, he reached safely in 13 of 14 games as the Mets made their way to the World Series for the first time in 14 seasons.
Wright’s 2007 season was about as close as you can get to a video-game player – not only because of his stellar numbers, but because of how comically well-rounded they were. .325 batting average. 30 homers. 34 stolen bases. 107 RBI. Wright became the third Met to win a Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger Award in the same season (after Keith Hernandez in 1984 and Carlos Beltrán in 2006), and the second Met to start an All-Star Game at third base (after Howard Johnson in 1989). While the Mets may have infamously collapsed down the stretch, Wright kept rolling, capping perhaps the greatest season from a position player in franchise history.
As the injury-riddled 2016 Mets willed their way to a Wild Card berth, Cabrera – a free-agent signing the offseason prior – transformed into the slugger at the heart of their lineup. The 30-year-old’s signature moment of the ’16 stretch run (and of his entire Mets tenure) came on September 22, when he crushed a walk-off three-run homer off Phillies reliever Edubray Ramos, capping one of the wackiest games in Citi Field history and fueling further bad blood between the two feud-prone clubs.
Céspedes’s 17 homers with the Mets after being acquired minutes before the Trade Deadline on July 31 don’t tell the full story. It wasn’t just about the volume of Céspedes’s production, it was the timing of it. Each blast seemed to be clutcher than the last, whether he was setting the franchise record for team homers in a game, pulling off a hat trick during a slugfest at Coors Field, or effectively putting the Nationals’ playoff aspirations to bed with a homer off a frustrated Drew Storen.
By most rate stats, Beltrán’s 2008 stretch run was actually superior to his ’07 run, but this one stands out because of the 50 RBI – the most in franchise history for a player over the final 50 games of the regular season. Beltrán was also playing elite defense, en route to his second of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards with the Mets.
How do you go from an All-Star snub to an MVP finalist? You hit 18 homers and steal 22 bases over the season’s final 50 games (a 58/71 full-season pace) while also walking a whopping 43 times. The 2025 season didn’t end the way the Mets had hoped, but Soto’s dominant stretch run was a welcome sight after mild stumbles out of the gate during his first campaign in Queens.
BE – GARY CARTER, 1985 .312 avg, .986 OPS, 15 HR, 39 RBI
Carter ended his first Mets season with a crescendo, batting .320 with 13 homers in September and October as the club tried to chase down the first-place Cardinals in the NL East. That stretch included a three-homer game in San Diego on September 3, which at the time marked just the fifth three-homer game in Mets history (and is still the only one by a catcher).
BE – JOHN OLERUD, 1998 .378 avg, 1.041 OPS, 7 HR, 27 RBI
No, this is not a typo, and no, I didn’t accidentally copy Mike Piazza’s batting average from earlier in the article; the 1998 Mets somehow had two players bat exactly .378 over the final 50 games of the 1998 season. Olerud’s surge helped him land at a .354 average by the season’s end, a mark which overtook Cleon Jones’ record of 29 years (.340 in 1969) as the highest single-season batting average in Mets history.
BE – FRANCISCO LINDOR, 2024 .329 avg, .998 OPS, 11 HR, 27 RBI
Putting a team on your back is a hard enough task; doing so while battling lower back soreness makes the feat even more impressive, and even more legendary. Whether breaking up a no-hitter and tying the game with one swing in Toronto or clinching a playoff spot with late-game heroics in Game 161 in Atlanta, Lindor did everything he possibly could to will the scrappy Grimace-powered squad to glory.
New Mets prospect Sammy Stafura’s all-time favorite Mets third baseman, Davis benefits this bench in his flexibility to really play anywhere on the diamond. He showed promise with the bat throughout his four-year Mets tenure, but never more so than in late 2019, after earning a full-time role rather than just platooning against lefties. Davis delivered one of the team’s many electrifying late-season walk-off wins with a tenth-inning double against Cleveland on August 21.
Maybe this article should just be called “The 2007 Mets, and also some other people.” The 41-year-old Alou joins Wright and Beltran representing the ’07 contingent on this roster for his late-season efforts after missing two and a half months with injury. With all these hitters going on tears as the regular-season calendar wound down, one might wonder how the Mets went 25-25 over their last 50 games and 5-12 over their last 18.
Having a father who was a former player and one of the best pitching coaches in baseball history certainly helped, but Shelley Duncan always has wanted to be a manager.
Duncan is in his fourth season with the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, and on Friday night in Worcester, Massachusetts, he managed his 1,000th career game in the minor leagues. It was a successful one too, as the RailRiders blanked the Red Sox, 2-0, behind the combined three-hit shutout by Alexander Cornielle and Bradley Hanner.
“Managing 1,000 games personally is really cool,” Duncan said. “When I think about it, it gives me that feel sometimes of when my gut is screaming at me and the conscious part of my brain might have doubt. Just that feeling of you’ve managed 1,000 games, trust it. It gives me an extra layer of confidence in decisions. It kills a lot of thoughts and negative doubts. It’s a really cool feeling to have. I can’t explain it. You just have that feeling that you’ve done something enough, it allows you to trust yourself more. It liberates your mind a lot and frees you up. It’s not a pride-ego thing. It’s a really cool feeling that’s hard to explain. That’s why it’s special.”
Duncan, 46, was drafted by the New York Yankees in the second round in 2001. He worked his way up through the farm system and made his major league debut in the Bronx on July 20, 2007.
He spent seven seasons in the major leagues: three with the Yankees, three with Cleveland and one with Tampa Bay. He played 330 games and batted .226 with 43 home runs and 144 RBI.
But even while he was playing, he thought about managing. Growing up, he was obsessed with leadership and learning about people who are at the top of their field or industry and what makes them special. He wanted to combine that with his passion for baseball.
“From a young age, I’ve always tried to look at the game from the lens of a manager,” Duncan said. “Even in my playing career, I didn’t take for granted playing for the good managers I played for and tried to learn as much as I can from every one of them, knowing that my career after playing could be longer as a coach or manager. I knew this is where ultimately the real future would be.”
So after his playing days ended in June 2014, Duncan began his managerial career in 2015 in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization. He spent two seasons with the High-A Hillsboro Hops, one year with the Low-A Visalia Rawhide and one with the Double-A Jackson Generals. He compiled a record of 231-199 and won league championships with Hillsboro in 2015 and Jackson in 2018.
For two seasons (2019-20) he worked with the Toronto Blue Jays as a major league field coordinator and a scout. Then he was an analytics coordinator with the Chicago White Sox for two seasons (2021-22). In 2023, he returned to the dugout and to the organization where he began his playing career. He has a record of 317-254 with the RailRiders. Last season, he led them to the International League championship series and was named the IL Manager of the Year.
Through Saturday, his overall managerial record is 548-453.
500 at the helm. 🏆 Tonight, we honored reigning IL Mananger of the Year Shelley Duncan for earning his 500th managerial win with a commemorative plaque.
Thank you, Skip, for the leadership, passion, and winning culture you bring to the clubhouse every day. Here’s to many more! pic.twitter.com/7PiT41aSpk
One might think coming back to manage at a place where he had so much success as a player — in 2009, he was the IL MVP with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre — would be special, and it is. But Duncan said the true meaning isn’t in the Yankees name, but rather the people within the organization.
“When I came back here in ’23, even though it had been 13, 14 years it felt like I was back with family,” Duncan said. “A feeling of being with people you can trust and be the best version of yourself; you don’t have to be anybody different. That’s where the meaning comes from. It’s being with the group of people I’m with, not the name on the jersey.”
Of course, Shelley’s father is Dave Duncan, who spent 30 seasons as pitching coach with Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa in Chicago, Oakland and St. Louis. That meant Shelley got to be around LaRussa as a kid. But he also has tried to take a little bit of something from every manager for whom he played.
“As a player, you start learning that there isn’t one right way,” Duncan said. “Tony LaRussa was successful doing things his way, Joe Torre was successful doing things his way, Joe Madden was successful doing things his way. All those guys had different styles to deliver success, but ultimately it was all based on the personnel they had. They were the best managers they could be for the group of guys they had. It wasn’t the players molding their system. They did what was best for those players.
“The cool thing about it is whatever group of guys I have, whatever situation, I don’t expect the players to morph into me. I try to create an environment and make decisions that’s best for them. You use lessons and experiences from every single manager and how different they were.”
Whenever he has the chance to tell a player he is being promoted to the major leagues, especially for the first time, Duncan still gets goosebumps. The one he remembers most is his first one in 2018 — pitcher Yoan Lopez.
“He was a castoff in the (Arizona) organization,” Duncan said. “They sent him to me all the way down in A-ball. They were fed up with him. Something we did with him changed his trajectory and he became a new person. He got everything together in Double-A. He was having such a good year, they called him straight up from Double-A. Getting to see a guy that was completely cast off, at the bottom of the barrel, make it is something I won’t forget.”
Asked what other highlights stand out for him in his managerial career, Duncan said it is not the wins, the championships nor the awards. Rather, it is seeing players and coaches he has been with have success both in and out of baseball.
“It sounds cliche, but it’s true,” Duncan said. “The moments that stand out more than anything are seeing the ones I’ve had success with down the road. Not just players or coaches I’ve coached who coach in the big leagues. Seeing players who are done playing baseball and they go into professional life and send me messages, talking about things they’ve gone through and experiences that we’ve had that have helped them be better in their career outside baseball. Those are the ones that are the most meaningful. No games, no individual stuff. None of that. It’s seeing people succeed.”
Some day, Duncan would like to manage in the major leagues. Deep down, he believes he would be good at it. However, it has to be the right time and circumstance.
“GMs find the right managers for the right situation,” Duncan said. “You could have the best manager in the whole entire world and it not be the right personality, the right guy for that situation. The GM has to hire somebody that he wants to be with every single day. There has to be a trust and a bond. Not everybody’s a match, so respect that. I’m not a match for everyone. There might be a managing job out there one day that I wouldn’t want because it’s not the job you’re going into, it’s the people you’re going into. People are the most important thing.”
George Springer can do no wrong at the plate right now, so I'm rocking with one of the hottest bats in baseball as part of my Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction.
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for their series finale as a +120 underdog at BET99. Can they close the 1.5-game gap in the Wild Card race?
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30, and win another same-game parlay.
Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions
Mariners vs Blue Jays best bet: George Springer Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
George Springer owns an .839 OPS in August for the Toronto Blue Jays and has played a huge role in their run to the Wild Card. He's registered eight hits (two homers, two extra-base hits) over his last four games and is on another level right now.
He's cashed this bet in three straight games, and he's in line to make it four straight this afternoon.
I'd play this to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Struggling with the long ball? The Mariners' ace comes into the matinee coughing up six homers in his last five starts. Toronto needs to capitalize when he elevates his four-seamer today — hitters own a .501 xSLG against his heater.
Mariners vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Springer owns strong numbers in this matchup, and so does Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who's 7-for-23 (.322 xBA) with two doubles and three homers against Gilbert, while rocking an astronomical .690 xSLG.
With these two dominating Gilbert and a strong performance from Max Scherzer, we shouldn't have an issue keeping this one close.
Mariners vs Blue Jays SGP
Blue Jays +1.5
George Springer Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
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Mariners vs Blue Jays home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+575)
Today could very well be the day Vladdy hits his first home run at home. He's hit three off Gilbert in his career already (he owns an average exit velocity of 98 MPH in this matchup), and owns a .721 OPS during day games.
Let's give our guy one more chance to climb out of this hole.
2026 Transparency Record
Best bets: 8-9, +1.77 units
SGPs: 3-14, -0.95 units
Mariners vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Mariners (-140) | Blue Jays (+120)
Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+120) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Mariners vs Blue Jays trend
The Under is 7-1 in the Blue Jays' last eight games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Mariners vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026
First pitch
1:37 p.m. ET
TV
Mariners.TV, SN
Mariners starting pitcher
Logan Gilbert (11-7, 3.36 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Max Scherzer (1-7, 7.02 ERA)
Mariners vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mariners vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 29: Arizona Diamondbacks INF Ildemaro Vargas (6) makes a nice diving stop late during game 2 of a doubleheader between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants on August 29, 2026, at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Diamondbacks News
Kelly Twirls Timely Gem, Nootbar Comes Up Huge Merrill Kelly got the nod for the first game of a day-night double header in San Francisco. The veteran right-hander put his tough August struggles behind him and gave the Snakes seven innings of shutout, two-hit baseball. Lars Nootbar provided the timely offense for the victory, coming in to pinch-hit in the seventh where he launched a splash-down grand slam.
Diamondbacks’ Offense Struggles in Nightcap The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks both sent rookies to the mound for the second half of their day-night double header. Yunior Marte out-dueled Mitch Bratt as the Diamondbacks were unable to solve the young Giants rookie.
Diamondbacks Players Meet with Team Officials in Advance of Marte’s Return Veteran players from the Diamondbacks have met with team officials to discuss the return of Ketel Marte, which appears to be set for Monday. Indications are that the team is prepared to welcome the embattled second baseman back to the squad.
Corbin Burnes' outing is now over:
2 IP | 0 H | 0 R | 0 BB | 0 K
Only had to throw 17 pitches; I imagine he finishes it off in the bullpen.
— Diamondbacks Prospects 🐍 (@dbacksprospectz) August 30, 2026
Other Baseball News
Luis Rengifo Injures Knee, Likely Done for Season Just as the Arizona Diamondbacks are preparing to welcome back Ketel Marte and possibly Corbin Burnes for the run-in to the playoffs, the San Diego Padres lost the lead, the game, and ne of their better players on a non-contact injury to Luis Rengifo as he tried to run down a Tamps Bay base runner in a wild seventh inning.
The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs close their series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, with Chicago carrying a 56% win probability at Wrigley Field.
Chicago has the home-field advantage, but the starting pitching matchup gives Cincinnati a legitimate path to an upset.
I’m backing the Reds while also targeting another high-scoring game in my Reds vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30.
Who will win Reds vs Cubs today: Reds moneyline (42%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Am I sprinting to make this bet? No, but I have to take a shot on the Cincinnati Reds at this price against the Chicago Cubs. I'd play it to 45%.
Chase Burns ranks in the 99th percentile in breaking-ball run value, with his slider generating the whiffs that drive his elite strikeout numbers. Chicago has several hitters who have struggled against breaking stuff, giving Burns a clear way to attack this lineup.
Shota Imanaga throws his four-seamer more than 40% of the time and has allowed a .452 xSLG and 43.5% hard-hit rate with the pitch. Cincinnati has been producing strong contact lately, and has multiple hitters capable of attacking that fastball.
That gives the Reds enough of an offensive matchup advantage for a small moneyline lean.
COVERS INTEL:Burns owns an elite breaking-ball profile while Imanaga’s fastball, his most frequently used pitch, has allowed a .452 xSLG.
Reds vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (49%)
Chicago owns a 135 wRC+ over the last seven days, while Cincinnati sits at 129, and the first two games of this series have already produced 40 combined runs.
Burns is capable of dominating, but Chicago’s disciplined approach creates a path to more traffic and an earlier bullpen entry.
On the other side, Imanaga’s fly-ball profile is a much cleaner weakness to attack. He has already allowed 30 home runs while ranking near the bottom of MLB in both barrel suppression and ground-ball rate.
Add warm temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, and there are multiple paths to another high-scoring game.
I’m playing the Over for 2 units.
Reds vs Cubs home run prediction: Sal Stewart (22%)
Imanaga's four-seamer has allowed opponents a 43.5% hard-hit rate. Stewart projects for a .348 xwOBA against four-seamers in this matchup and has already homered in both games of this series.
With Imanaga’s fly-ball profile and favorable conditions at Wrigley, Stewart is my preferred Cincinnati home run target.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 47-45, +2.90 units
Over/Under bets: 53-39, +15.44 units
Reds vs Cubs weather
Temperatures should sit in the low 80s around first pitch with double-digit winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, creating a favorable environment for power and overall run scoring.
Reds vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: Reds 42% | Cubs 59%
Run line: Reds +1.5 | Cubs -1.5
Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Reds vs Cubs trend
Over is 5-0 in Imanaga's last five starts during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs.
How to watch Reds vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026
First pitch
7:20 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Reds starting pitcher
Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA)
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 09: Pitcher River Ryan #77 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning of the spring training game at American Family Fields of Phoenix on March 09, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Detroit Tigers have done a nearly miraculous job climbing out of the hole they dug for themselves back in May. A 33-22 run now has them right in the thick of the hunt for the final wild card spot in the American League, and the division is still just 4.5 games out of reach after back-to-back losses to the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox on Friday and Saturday.
After trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the trade deadline and not pursuing any relief help, the front office conceded that this was all quite a long shot, at least too long to pass up the opportunity to restock the organization with team-controlled young talent. Yet the opportunity to get to the postseason and shoot their shot remains intact, and the one player the Tigers acquired at the deadline may prove decisive for their chances, one way or the other.
The Tigers have played .600 ball for the past 11 weeks. That’s not easy to sustain when one considers the injuries they’ve continued to deal with, the lack of a consistently dominant relief arm, and the fact that they dealt away Skubal and Mize along the way. They’ve gotten boosts along the way from rookies like Hao-Yu Lee, Max Clark, Ben Malgeri, and particularly Eduardo Valencia, while the return of Jackson Jobe, who still has development ahead of him at 24 years of age, should continue to stabilize the rotation.
Riley Greene is already rehabbing toward a return from the injured list, while any of Brant Hurter, Kerry Carpenter or Jack Flaherty could provide a boost, at least in terms of depth. But other than Greene, the only player with huge impact potential when and if he returns healthy is right-hander River Ryan. The Tigers might be able to sneak into the postseason without him, but any real chance of a deep run likely relies on their newest arm.
Ryan, who will turn 28 on Monday, has been on the injured list with a right hamstring strain since his last Triple-A start on June 17. His ETA to return has generally been slated for the end of August, but as he’ll probably need a rehab start or two to get tuned up, we should see him back on the mound for the Toledo Mud Hens next week if that’s still the timetable.
Manager A.J. Hinch had a reasonably positive report on that front when he spoke to reporters on Friday. By his account, Ryan is working through a progression of bullpens leading back to a rehab assignment, saying that his velocity looks great and that his recovery has gone even better. Let’s hope so. Still, the subtext in the comments is that there are still live bullpen sessions ahead of him before an actual rehab assignment. That feels like it pushes the timetable just a bit into September.
A.J. Hinch on River Ryan: "He's doing great. I watched video of his bullpen the other day. There's a set of bullpens he's going to do before he gets to competition and lives. The numbers are pretty eye-popping. Velocity has been great. His recovery has been even better."
If Ryan is healthy, he immediately challenges Troy Melton for best stuff on the Tigers pitching staff. Let’s just do a quick comparison between the two.
Ryan averaged 97.7 mph on his fourseam fastball in his limited action this season with 6.6 feet of extension to the plate, with 15.4 inches of induced vertical break.
Melton is averaging 96.3 mph with 6.8 feet of extension to the plate with 15.1 inches of induced vertical break.
Both fourseamers lack the kind of eye-popping riding action that misses bats in the strike zone, but their velocity and extension counterbalance that to a degree. As we’ve seen regularly from Melton, he can get whiffs at the top and above the strike zone, but he has to set hitters up well with his secondary stuff to really get them chasing the heater. The same is true for Ryan. In fact, these are very comparable fourseamers all around. Ryan generally has a tick more gas, but otherwise the two pitches profile very similarly. They even release their fastball at roughly 5.6 feet off the ground, starting it on the same plane to home plate. Melton will mix in a few more sinkers than Ryan does, but they both use the pitch to jam right-handers and help keep hitters off the fourseamer a bit.
The comparisons hold up throughout each pitcher’s breaking stuff as well. Ryan’s 94 mph cutter is a huge weapon for him, just as Melton’s increased cutter velo, up to 92.2 mph average this season, and better command of the pitch have made it a major part of his arsenal in a breakout year for him. Even the vertical and horizontal movement on the two pitches are very similar. Ryan’s is just that little bit harder, giving him an edge, although Melton’s been throwing his harder as the year has unfolded.
Things start to diverge a bit between them in terms of sliders. Ryan averages 91.3 mph with his slider, while Melton averages 86.8 mph. Melton gets a few extra inches of horizontal break, but both pitches feature similar depth. Typically, harder is better with sliders, but because they both have a cutter, again I think this is kind of a wash. Melton’s increased velocity separation between the two pitches arguably gives him a little edge there.
Where Ryan gets an edge back is in terms of curveballs. Melton’s is a solid 78-79 mph knuckle curve with solid depth, whereas Ryan throws his at 83.3 mph with four inches more depth. Ryan’s is much more usable as a bat-missing power curve, while Melton can get whiffs, but it’s more of a change of pace pitch for him.
Finally, their changeups are both 89 mph as well. I’m belaboring the point a bit, but you see the picture here. These two are very comparable pitchers. Ryan just has a bit of extra heat on most of his stuff and a better curveball, while Melton has shown better command and probably deserves a bit of a nod toward his changeup, simply in the fact that he’s more comfortable throwing it regularly.
Other characteristics that distinguish them are that Melton walks fewer hitters and attacks the zone more. Ryan doesn’t give up many homers, certainly less than Melton has in his pro career. Those two things may well be related. Even their deliveries aren’t too dissimilar, with both using a pretty short, explosive arm stroke to their release point.
By now you see the appeal. The Tigers could very well add in a second Troy Melton in a few weeks, possibly even a bit of a turbo-charged version of Melton. This is why River Ryan is such a big piece of the puzzle, both for this season and for assessing how well Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg did in the Tarik Skubal trade. If River Ryan comes back healthy and puts together a few years of relatively good health, the trade is wildly lopsided in the Tigers’ favor. If the injuries keep cropping up even with Tommy John surgery well behind him? Well, that deal is going to age more poorly, although certainly Zyhir Hope could make it all worthwhile anyway.
More germane to the moment, the River Ryan acquisition could also be the piece that carries them to the postseason. The Tigers dealt away Skubal, and they made no other moves to shore up their bullpen or rotation to give them a fighting chance at reaching the postseason and perhaps going on a run. Getting Hurter and Flaherty back could potentially help them down the stretch drive, but it’s Ryan who can put this pitching staff over the top at a point in the season when plenty of teams’ pitching staffs are starting to run out of gas.
The Tigers are going to have a lot of crucial decisions in the coming weeks. Adding Riley Greene, Flaherty, and Hurter back into the mix are obvious. Less obvious are decisions like whether Matt Vierling or Kerry Carpenter can help them or not, and who to demote or release in their stead. Their biggest decision in August has already been made, however. The Tigers bet big on the risk/reward upside of River Ryan at the deadline, and his presence and performance, or the lack thereof, may well be the deciding factor in whether the Tigers can complete an unlikely run to the postseason or not.
The Minnesota Twins will look to avoid a crushing AL Central sweep this afternoon against the Chicago White Sox.
Minnesota's offense profiles very well in August, making them a team I want to buy with my White Sox vs. Twins predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30.
Who will win White Sox vs Twins today: Twins moneyline (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
This unit sits 18th in xERA this month and has been tasked with pitching more innings than any other ‘pen.
A couple of their lefties are unlikely to be available, meaning the Twins will see plenty of righties. That’s good news, as they’re sporting a .330 xwOBA vs. RHP in August, sixth-best.
Zebby Matthews has pitched much better at home (3.51 ERA), and the Twins will be in good shape if that continues.
Back Minnesota to 57%.
COVERS INTEL:The Twins rank second in Ideal Attack Angle during the month of August.
White Sox vs Twins Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (53%)
The Over is very appealing in this game.
Relief pitching tends to be volatile, and it’s hard to imagine arm after arm coming in and pitching cleanly for the White Sox against a Twins offense that – forget handedness – sits fifth in xwOBA this month.
Matthews owns a 5.04 ERA and has allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings. It’s difficult for him to get out of games unscathed.
This total just isn’t high enough for a battle between teams with O/U records of 77-58 and 76-58.
Play to 56%.
White Sox vs Twins home run prediction: Kody Clemens (16%)
Kody Clemens has been the top source of power for the Twins in August. He’s paced the team with a 10.9% barrel rate, a 48.4% hard hit rate, and an impressive .517 xSLG.
He is consistently making quality contact, and will be a tough out for an overworked bullpen that has allowed the fifth-most barrels in the majors this season.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 93-86, -12.70 units
Over/Under bets: 91-82-6, -2.71 units
White Sox vs Twins weather
Warm temperatures in the mid 80s are expected, albeit with wind blowing in. Relatively neutral impact on scoring.
White Sox vs Twins odds
Moneyline: White Sox 47% | Twins 54%
Run line: White Sox +1.5 (63%) | Twins -1.5 (38%)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52%) | Under 8.5 (49%)
White Sox vs Twins trend
Chicago has only hit the Under in 22 of its last 50 games (-8.8 units, -16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins.
How to watch White Sox vs Twins and game info
Location
Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026
First pitch
2:10 p.m. ET
TV
CHSN, Twins.TV
White Sox starting pitcher
Jordan Hicks (2-1, 3.83 ERA)
Twins starting pitcher
Zebby Matthews (8-8, 4.86 ERA)
White Sox vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Mark Slater gets in touch: “I will be following the Chelsea vs Brighton match particulary, but am happy to see a Joy Division quote in the opening paragraphs. In Chelsea’s case, Brighton and Hove Albion, Manchester City, and Aston Villa most recently...”
Tom: “A+++ for getting Joy Division into the Sunday MBM.”
The Los Angeles Dodgers own the league’s best win percentage against sub-.500 teams, and I expect them to build on it this afternoon as 63% favorites.
Let’s break down why with my Dodgers vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30, with first pitch at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Who will win Dodgers vs Tigers today: Los Angeles Dodgers (63%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Detroit Tigers have fallen off a cliff offensively. They sit 28th in OPS vs. RHP over the last 20 games, and it’ll be tough to claw their way out of their struggles against Tyler Glasnow.
The veteran righty has managed a 2.10 ERA over four starts vs. teams that ranked Bottom 15 in OPS the prior 20 games.
Glasnow has suppressed runs effectively against struggling offenses, and the Dodgers have a bullpen that sits seventh in xERA this month backing him up. There is no easy path to scoring for the Tigers.
Valdez forces a lot of balls in the dirt at the worst of times, and he has hit a new level the past 30 days. He has forced a ground-ball rate of 60.2%, making it difficult to hit for power — as evident by his 0.57 HR/9.
I’d play this to 56%.
Dodgers vs Tigers home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez (13%)
Relative to his season outputs against Valdez’s pitch mix, his exit velocity is up 3.3 mph, while his hard-hit rate has spiked 7.9% over the last 25 at-bats.
Hernandez has historically hit lefties very well, and he owns a .263 ISO against Valdez over 19 career at-bats.
He's taken high-end southpaws like Chris Sale and Payton Tolle at least 350 feet this month. He’s been knocking on the door, and this is a nice look.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 93-86, -12.70 units
Over/Under bets: 91-82-6, -2.71 units
Dodgers vs Tigers weather
Temperatures are expected to sit in the 70s with winds blowing west and showers expected. Boost to the pitchers.
Dodgers vs Tigers odds
Moneyline: Dodgers 63% | Tigers 38%
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (49%) | Tigers +1.5 (52%)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)
Dodgers vs Tigers trend
Detroit has cashed the game total Under in 13 of the last 20 games (+6.40 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Tigers.
How to watch Dodgers vs Tigers and game info
Location
Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Date
Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026
First pitch
1:40 p.m. ET
TV
SNLA, DSN
Dodgers starting pitcher
Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 3.02 ERA)
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez (8-9, 4.35 ERA)
Dodgers vs Tigers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Afternoon everyone and welcome to the Arnold Mühren derby. It’s a game that looms larger now than it did before the season began. Then, it seemed like a surprising choice for the Sunday-teatime slot, but since last weekend it has looked rather shrewd. Ipswich hit the ground running with a win over Sunderland, while Manchester United slipped on a banana skin at Hull.
Michael Carrick still has his proud record of winning two-thirds of his matches as United boss (in both his stints). And one of the things his team did well last season was bouncing back from disappointment. After losing at Newcastle, they beat Villa at Old Trafford; after losing to Leeds at home, they went to Chelsea and won.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 02: Emmet Sheehan #80 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Boston Red Sox at Dodger Stadium on August 02, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The ins and outs of Saturday night in the Dodgers minor leagues.
Player of the day
Emmet Sheehan continued to roll in Triple-A, this time with seven strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Sheehan allowed a run, the only tally against him in his last three starts for Oklahoma City, with five hits and two walks against him on Saturday.
Sheehan in his last three games has allowed one run in 17 1/3 innings, with 24 strikeouts and six walks.
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Zach Ehrhard homered in the eighth inning, giving the Comets a win over the El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres).
After catching three games this week, Will Smith doubled twice in his four at-bats on Saturday as the designated hitter.
Justin Wrobleski joined the Comets on a rehab assignment and got four outs in relief, his expected role once he rejoins the Dodgers in September and into October. Wrobleski allowed a run on three hits in the eighth inning, then got the first out of the ninth, and struck out two in his outing.
In the seventh inning for El Paso, old friend Brent Honeywell allowed the tying and go-ahead runs to score thanks to a pair of errors in a 25-pitch frame. It was his first game action in 22 months, since Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, batting injuries for the better part of two years in between.
Double-A Tulsa
The Drillers scored four runs in the 11th inning to top the Midland RockHounds (A’s). Tulsa struck out 19 times on the night but also had 16 hits and nine walks in 11 innings, plating 10 runs.
Taylor Young doubled home a run in the 11th inning, after singling with three walks, reaching base five times with a stolen base. Jake Gelof homered and had a sacrifice fly before his two-run single adding insurance runs in the 11th, giving him four RBI on the night.
Elijah Hainline also homered for Tulsa. Jose Izarra, playing right field, doubled twice and stole a base. Kole Myers singled twice, walked twice, and stole a base.
Josue De Paula doubled, singled, and scored a pair of runs. His second run came as the free runner in the 10th inning, his 100th run scored of the season. De Paula is one RBI away from the century mark there as well, after previous career highs of 69 runs scored and 62 RBI, both set in 2024.
Jacob Kmatz, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline in the Hunter Feduccia/Jack Suwinski swap, allowed only one run on three hits in his first eight appearances for Tulsa. But on Saturday, Kmatz allowed a run on three hits to tie things up in the eighth. But it could have been a lot worse, as the run was already in and the bases were loaded with nobody out, but Kmatz induced a force out at home, an easy flyout, and a strikeout to strand three.
Payton Martin returned after two and a half weeks on the injured list, and struck out three in two scoreless innings of relief working around a single and walk. It’s just the fifth appearance out of the bullpen in 76 career games in four professional seasons pitching. Martin in his previous seven starts before landing on the IL allowed 33 runs in 31 1/3 innings.
High-A Great Lakes
The Loons scored in five of eight innings at home to blow out the Lansing Lugnuts (A’s). Mairo Martinus hit a three-run home run and Charles Davalan hit a two-run shot. Martinus, like De Paula in Double-A, scored his 99th and 100th runs on the season on Saturday.
Eduardo Quintero and Emil Morales each doubled and singled, with Morales up to 115 RBI in 111 games this season between Great Lakes and Class-A Ontario. Not to be outdone, third baseman Eduardo Guerrero had three hits, driving in two and scoring a pair.
Isaac Ayon accepted that bounty of offense and allowed just a run on three hits in his five innings for the win.
Class-A Ontario
Catcher Conner O’Neal and Ching-Hsien Ko each homered in the ninth inning, breaking a tie in the Tower Buzzers’ road win over the Stockton Ports (A’s). Ko’s was a two-run shot.
Ontario didn’t score until the seventh inning on a solo home run by second baseman Kellon Lindsey. The 2024 first-round draft pick homered six times in his first 59 professional games between last year and this year. But since July 18, Lindsey has eight home runs in his last 33 games, hitting .250/.413/.508.
Starter Luis Gamez on the day before his 20th birthday closed out his teens in style with four scoreless innings and six strikeouts, working around four walks and a single.
Jecsua Liborius struck out two in a scoreless ninth inning to earn his 11th save.
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 29: Dylan Crews #3 of the Washington Nationals is doused with water by Andrés Chaparro #87 and CJ Abrams #5 after driving in the game winning run with a single in the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 29, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It took until August 29th, but the Washington Nationals finally got their first walk off win. The hit came from Dylan Crews, a guy who really needed a big moment, making things even better. After the game, Crews said that this was probably his best moment since becoming a big leaguer. It is a big statement, but it is tough to disagree.
Nationals first walk-off win of 2026 ✅ Dylan Crews' first career walk-off hit ✅ Orlando Ribalta's first Major League win ✅ pic.twitter.com/gMnbRWJpAF
— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) August 29, 2026
Since being the number two overall pick, Dylan Crews’ pro career has not been as smooth as most anticipated. After being good, not great in the upper minors, Crews was rushed to the big leagues where he has struggled. It was so bad that Crews did not make the team out of camp.
Since being recalled in mid May, Crews has had some moments, but has not put it all together. For the season, the former LSU star is hitting .223 with 10 homers and a .660 OPS. However, he came up to the plate in the bottom of the 10th inning with a clean slate. The bases were loaded with two outs. It was up to Dylan Crews to end this game and finally give the Nats a walkoff.
That is exactly what the 24 year old did, ripping a low liner just past the second baseman. This was the swing that Dylan Crews desperately needed. As he got mobbed by his teammates, he smiled in a way that we have not seen him smile since he was an LSU Tiger.
Final: Nationals 5, Marlins 4 (10)
There it is: Dylan Crews walks off the Marlins in the 10th. That might be the biggest smile we've seen from him since he arrived in DC. The biggest hit, too. Big moment.
For a guy who has been humbled by the baseball gods for the first time in his life at the MLB level, that had to feel so good. Crews said the gatorade shower was colder than he expected and he almost fell over from the direct hit. However, I have a feeling that none of this bothered him.
All season long, the Nats have really struggled to get that big hit late in games. For an offense that has been so explosive, this has been a weird phenomenon. Even yesterday, it felt like a lot of guys were pressing. After the Marlins erased the Nats 4-0 lead, it seemed like the Nats bats were in a state of shock like we have seen so many times this season.
After Orlando Ribalta put up a 0 in the 10th, the offense looked like they were ready to send things to the 11th. CJ Abrams struck out on 3 pitches and Abimelec Ortiz popped up the first pitch. It just looked like more of the same from this Nats offense.
However, Jose Tena and Daylen Lile both put together outstanding AB’s, which Crews made sure to point out. Both of them worked crucial walks, which set up DC3 for his big moment. Crews told me that his plan of attack was to try and get on top of Michael Petersen’s rising fastball and hit a low liner. That is exactly what he did and Crews called game.
Moments like this make it harder to give up on the number 2 pick. Even though the results have not come yet, you can see the talent. I am still not 100% sure if he puts it all together in DC, but there is a reason you give players like this a lot of chances. Hopefully this can be a catalyst for him moving forward.
I know everyone is so up and down on Dylan Crews, and rightfully so.
But man, it would be so awesome if a moment like that could boost his confidence and allow him to finish this year on a high note.
I just can’t give up on him until he’s not in the organization anymore.
This last month of play is important for a lot of Nationals players, but Crews might be at the top of the list. He needs to prove he can hit right handed pitching and show consistency at the big league level. Crews’ pedigree and flashes will give him plenty of opportunity, but he does not have forever to figure it out.
A strong finish to the season could establish Crews as an everyday starter in a still crowded Nats outfield. Before yesterday, he never had that one moment that fans could cling on to. However, that changed in a big way. When the Nats needed a hero with the bases loaded and two outs, Dylan Crews was the guy who delivered.
That was what we were supposed to get when he was drafted out of LSU. He was known for his clutch hitting and leadership. It has been a very slow burn so far, but who knows, maybe we just saw the turning point in Dylan Crews’ Washington Nationals career.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Jacob Wilson #5 of the Athletics throws to first base for the out during the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Sutter Health Park on August 16, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Mariners continued to prove the doubters correct yesterday by losing an incredibly winnable game and securing a series loss in Toronto. Logan Gilbert will go against Max Scherzer at 10:37 PST to try to find some momentum to take to Boston.
Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson will be getting surgery to repair his persistent shoulder injury in a couple weeks. Wilson has only played eighty games this season and has been unable to match his All-Star rookie season when he’s been on the field. It is currently unclear if Wilson will miss any of the 2027 season.
Padres infielder Luis Rengifo had to be carted off the field with a sprained knee after he planted awkwardly to make a throw home. Rengifo will undergo a full evaluation back in San Diego as soon as possible.
The New York Mets placed outfielder Luis Robert Jr. on waivers yesterday. Robert is owed slightly under $5 million for the rest of the season.
On Friday, it was reported by Mark Feinsand that the Cubs had DFA’d relief pitcher Hoby Milner. It turned out that the Cubs hadn’t DFA’d Milner but had instead placed him waivers, an error that Feinsand quickly corrected about three hours later. Then, about 25 hours after that correction, the Cubs announced they had DFA’d Hoby Milner. Truly hilarious series of events.
Former Mariners pitcher Justin Topa was DFA’d by the Yankees after the first game of their doubleheader yesterday to make room for the return of Max Fried.
Former Mariner Cade Marlowe signed a minor league contract with the Angels yesterday, rejoining the franchise after being released by them on Friday following Marlowe exercising his opt-out.
The flyover before a rugby match in Cape Town cut it extremely close, with one of the pilots bringing the plane within twelve meters of the roof of the stadium!
Two planes were involved in a very close call doing a flyover before South Africa faced New Zealand in Cape Town ✈️ pic.twitter.com/Ylggc9LyR6
We’ll start with a Heroes and Goats Note for those of you who follow the minutia. Trent Thornton’s disaster Friday ended up landing as the fifth-worst WPA game score of the season by a Cub pitcher, leaving Webb with the top four spots. Going backward through history, Daniel Palencia had two of the top four last year. Hector Neris had two of the three worst scores in 2024. I could not immediately eyeball the closer in 2023. In 2022, David Robertson won the Rizzo Award. In 2021, Craig Kimbrel finished fourth. We don’t talk about the 2020 season. In 2019, Kimbrel had the two worst WPA game scores. In 2018 Pedro Strop won the Rizzo. In 2017, Wade Davis finished fourth for the Rizzo and also had the worst WPA game score of the year. So there is a quick and dirty tour of relievers and Heroes and Goats. They do get a lot of opportunity to accumulate WPA. The best ones do anyway. 100 H&G points, the first ever issued to all of you who can eyeball the closers in those boring Cub years where I didn’t immediately identify them (without going to any source).
Now back to the regularly scheduled action. Today was a flashback to an era gone by for me. Not because so many Cubs greats were in attendance at the game. I just thought my favorite TV show was showing a rerun today. It was the one where the good guys kicked butt start to finish. Not really a classic Hollywood script. Oh, there was a little fake inserted drama there towards the end of the first act. Where it seemed like this would be another tired episode where the bad guys had all of the fun. But really, just an old school romp for the good guys. At least when your favorite show is in reruns, they show a classic. I’m always here for it when the superstar hits three homers.
If you didn’t watch the Marquee broadcast with sound, you missed the line of the day. Greg Maddux was interviewed early and confirmed that he does still watch a fair bit of baseball. But then he said without missing a beat that he turns the sound off and just watches the game. I think Boog nearly choked on that one. He definitely didn’t miss it and asked a clarifying question to which Maddux quickly added that he does listen when John Smoltz is calling the game. I could also clearly picture his straight face when talking about PitchCom and that back in the day they got a LITTLE latitude off the plate. I think whole rivers ran between batters and the corners of the plate at times when those 90’s Braves teams were pitching. As if they weren’t lethal enough.
Listening to Maddux, Anthony Rizzo and Jon Lester all visit was fun. It was an entertaining broadcast. All joking aside, it ended up being one of the more entertaining games of the year. While this script has played out in SO many games this year, obviously it never gets old. I don’t know that there is much value to running the score up. I don’t imagine Seiya Suzuki is going to reminisce about the day he teed off on a position player. But the game goes on and I can’t see not trying to succeed regardless of what the guys on the other side are doing. The Cubs have split their last six games, getting shut out once. Also, they’ve scored 55 runs over that time. So unbelievable. This team has an immense ability to pile it on.
I’m pretty sure the drama has left the room. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be the MVP. We’ve seen all of the experts change lanes over the last few weeks. Pete has so many impressive statistics. I see where Shohei Ohtani is going to maybe start pitching some innings down the stretch. I’m not sure it matters. People are using Pete to dump on WAR as a stat (including Anthony Rizzo). But he’s also right with the league leaders on WPA and he just has so many metrics pointing his way. He seems very likely now to reach 40/40. At some point, the defense and baserunning offsets Ohtani’s pitching numbers enough for him to win.
While I’m ranting on statistics and awards, let me say something about Sal Stewart. First, a disclaimer, I don’t watch nearly enough other baseball to have a hands on opinion regarding NL Rookie of the Year. Sal Stewart’s case is heating up because he leads the majors in runs batted in. Let’s flip Alex Bregman and Sal Stewart for a second. Stewart is a rookie on the Cubs, batting third and he bats with more traffic than any player in the major leagues. I don’t recall if Bregman is still there, but I know he was. But, in that spot, Stewart’s RBI would largely be context driven because he’s just batting with traffic all of the time. But they aren’t flipped. Stewart plays for the Reds. He might see the most traffic of any player on the Reds. The Reds are fourth from the bottom in on-base percentage. They have fewer men on base than all but two NL teams. And Stewart leads the league in RBI. Yes, RBI need context. The context is holy cow. If there are other reasons for Stewart not being RoY, that’s fine. But do not discount than man’s RBI. It’s impressive. (That stat by the way, Bregman has batted with 419 runners on base. Sal Stewart has batted with 365 runners on base, which is just nominally over an average number of runners – 357).
THREE POSITIVES:
I miss having something on PCA every day. He tailed a little for a while there. Such are the problems when you unlock god-mode in a game, right? He was back in the zone today though. Four hits, three homers, six runs driven in four runs scored. Now fourth in the majors in homers, none of the top 10 have even 20 steals. OPS is second. I understand the value of pitching. But Ohtani would have to be throwing a ton of innings. Pete has the Jordan argument. He is the best offensive player in the National League. Also he is arguably the best defensive player in the National League. Also, we’ve moved away from this definition a fair bit, but the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball if Ohtani misses the entire season injured. The Cubs are ordinary without Pete. Their pitching manages what it does (which isn’t great anyway) in large part because balls go to die in center.
Carson Kelly, double, homer, walk, four runs driven in, three scored.
Alex Bregman, single, double, homer, hit by pitch, three runs driven in, run scored.
I could list a half dozen other players easily, but I just HAVE to hat tip Tyrone Taylor for a four-hit game with three runs scored and Ryan Zeferjahn, four up and four down while the game was still competitive.
Game 136, August 29: Cubs 17, Reds 5 (77-59)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.238). 4-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R
Hero: Alex Bregman (.156). 3-5, HR, 2B, HBP, 3 RBI, R
Sidekick: Pedro Ramirez (.113). 2-3, 2 BB, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.138). 5 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 R, 7 K (W 3-1)
Goat: Michael Busch (-.053). 0-6
Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.041). 1-5, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Eugenio Suarez’s two-run homer in the second. Yeah, that’s never happened before. Cut the Cub lead to one. (.141)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s two-run homer in the first. Extended the Cub lead to three. (.135)
Note: 88 WPA events were recorded in this game. 19 of them registered .000. Nico Hoerner’s RBI single was the last event that registered any WPA.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 135 Winner: Seiya Suzuki received 24 of 38 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Pete Crow-Armstrong +29
Alex Bregman +22
Ben Brown +13.5
Javier Assad +12
Shōta Imanaga +11
Edward Cabrera -12.5
Jameson Taillon -13
Nico Hoerner -15
Dansby Swanson -17
Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers win (up eight on Cubs ). Phillies win (one back of Cubs). Diamondbacks split a double header (five behind Cubs). Dodgers lost (four ahead of Cubs). Padres lost (five back). Braves won (four up).
Up Next: 1-1 to start this 13 game stretch. The Cubs can win the series Sunday night. Shōta Imanaga (8-9, 3.78) was flipped with Gausman and given extra rest after a rough start in Seattle that the Cubs ended up winning by 17 after he left. He’s still 3-1 with a 2.65 over his last seven. He definitely has shown signs of wearing down, allowing eight earned runs in 12.2 innings over his last three starts. It would be great to get him back on track. Hopefully the wind is a little more tame after two big offensive days in a row.
23-year-old righty Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77) goes for the Reds. He’s tailing a bit (3-2, 3.41 over seven) and allowed five runs in 3.2 innings last time against the lowly Giants. Kudos to the Giants, I can’t remember too many times in my years where I’ve looked for a negative adjective for them. Chase has missed the Cubs so far this year. They saw him briefly last year in September in relief. He allowed three hits and a run in 1.1 innings. Nico Hoerner was the only current Cub who had a hit against him (an RBI single). Looking through his numbers, the Angels got him for five runs in 5.1 innings in April, the Pirates got him for five runs in six innings in June, the Guardians got him for five runs (one earned) in five innings in July, and the Nationals got him for five runs in 5.1 early August. He’s been roughed up in three of his last six starts and two of those were on the road. He’s 6-2 with a 3.53 on the road. He’s 9-3 with a 2.81 at night.
With this pitching matchup, Fangraphs still has the Cubs at 53.3 percent to win this game. That may even be tweaked upwards after a lopsided win in the series. I think the Cubs can win this one. But Imanaga has got to limit the damage and the Cubs have to work the pitch count.
COVERS INTEL: Struggling with the long ball? The Mariners' ace comes into the matinee coughing up six homers in his last five starts. Toronto needs to capitalize when he elevates his four-seamer today — hitters own a 
