Stephen Vogt is a great manager, but we need to see some adjustment in how he uses David Fry.

Good news on David Fry! He appears to be a solid major league hitter. He has a 112 wRC+ this season and a 110 wRC+ for his career.

Bad news on Guardians’ catchers! The Guards have two amazing defensive catchers who cannot hit a lick – Hedges has a career 51 wRC+ and Bailey has a career 71 wRC+.

Good news! David Fry can play catcher, so he can be put in a catcher position to allow the team not to endure a Patrick Bailey or Austin Hedges at-bat with the game on the line.

Bad news! Stephen Vogt seems to have too much confidence in Bailey and Hedges as hitters (mistake!) and/or not enough confidence in David Fry as a catcher (he may be right!) to optimally employ this strategy. Notably, he can pinch-hit for Bailey or Hedges in the 7th or 8th and then get whichever defensive savant he wants in the game in the 9th to relieve Fry to reduce any defensive risks.

Last night, in the bottom of the fifth last night, Tuesday, May 20th, with right-hander Kyle Finnegan on the mound, Stephen Vogt pinch-hit Travis Bazzana for David Fry, who was in right-field at the time. I am really not sure why he did this, as Finnegan was clearly at the end of his appearance and Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch was likely to bring a lefty in to face a left-handed hitter, as he proceeded to do. Mostly, the issue with this move was the Fry was now unavailable to move to catcher if a pinch-hitter was needed for Patrick Bailey later in the game. This is not an isolated incident, nor is choosing to start David Fry at DH where moving him to catcher requires the team to lose the DH-spot.

Consequently, the worst possible outcome occurred later in the game. Needing one run to tie the game, Patrick Bailey took the most important at-bat of the game for the Guardians with only Petey Halpin and Austin Hedges available on the bench to bat for him. Bailey got the groundball to tie the game, but not without significant travail. Now, Bazzana did single ahead of Bailey’s at-bat to give the team the chance to tie the game, so maybe Vogt wins on this gambit. Yet, it doesn’t change the fact that Vogt and the team need to be clear on this strategem – if at all possible, Fry needs to be kept available to be used in the catcher spot so that Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey do not have the fate of any game resting on their bats unless absolutely necessary.

Stop being confident in Bailey and Hedges to hit with the game on the line. There is AMPLE evidence that neither should be trusted to hit. Optimize David Fry’s presence on this roster by leveraging him into catcher at-bats late in close games. Please and thank you.

On May 21, 1880, a strange thing happened in upstate New York. While playing at Riverside Park in Albany, Lip Pike — playing for the National Association team in Albany in between stints at the professional/semi-professional level — hit a fly ball over the fence in right field and into the nearby river. Outfielder Lon Knight, playing for the visiting Worcester Ruby Legs, hopped in a boat to chase the ball — because, despite the fact that the ball went over the wall, it was still technically a live ball!

These days, when the ball goes over the fence, it is out of play, and depending on whether it gets there on the fly or on a bounce determines whether it’s a home run or a ground-rule double (yes, it’s officially called an automatic double, but, well, old habits die hard). However—like everything in baseball—this rule wasn’t written down on golden tablets handed to Abner Doubleday/Alexander Cartwright/whichever semi-mythological figure you consider to be the founder of baseball, but one that evolved throughout the history of the game. Unfortunately, the Baseball Almanac’s list of rules changes does not give us an exact moment that this rule was created, but we can surmise that it came into existence prior to the National League’s creation in 1876, as on May 2nd of that year, Chicago White Stockings second baseman Ross Barnes hit the first home run in what would become Major League history. But even then, its story was not so simple.

If you have followed my history-of-early-baseball posts over the past few years, you already know that 19th-century baseball was organized very differently than the baseball of today. Rather than a centralized league imposing a particular ruleset, the home team determined the particular rule set the game was played under, with convention dictating the most basic rules, up until the creation of the NL. Indeed, even after the Senior Circuit came into existence, the home teams still had quite a bit of say in how the game was played, as the NL office in its early years focused less on the product on the field and more on bullying other leagues out of existence to ensure a monopoly over the sport (but that’s a story for another day).

We see hints of this still today, where individual ballparks have rules to determine home run/ground rule double/foul ball when the ball hits a catwalk, or gets stuck in the ivy, or any other random thing occurs that is unique to that ballpark. But in the 1800s, even fundamental rules, such as what happened when a ball went over the fence, depended on where the game was played.

Did Lon Knight actually grab a boat and chase down a ball in the river in order to get the ball and try to make a play? In truth, it sounds a bit ridiculous. How slow must the batter have been where hopping the fence, heading into a boat, and setting sail on the river seemed a perfectly reasonable solution? It’s not for nothing that the SABR biography of Knight says “there is undoubtedly some fictitious element to the story.” Since the teams had a limited amount of balls back in those days, it seems more likely to me that Knight hopped in the river not to continue the play, but to continue the game, and that over time, the story grew in its telling. What this story does reinforce, though, is the fact that these rules depended by and large on the ballpark; if a ball over the fence was always a home run, after all, this story could not have come into existence in the version described.

Naturally, some teams took advantage of this. In the early 1880s, the Chicago White Stockings played on a field with short fences (some sources place them less than 200 feet from home plate), and according to convention at the time, batted balls hit over a fence that was less than 250 feet were treated as doubles, not home runs. According to SABR, however, in 1884, Chicago changed their own ground rule so that everything that went over the fence was considered a homer, not a double, resulting in a season in which Ned Williamson hit 27 home runs, a record that would stand until Babe Ruth’s 29-homer season in 1920.

In time, to stop shenanigans such as this, rules surrounding batted balls hit over the fence were ultimately standardized. Originally, in addition to all fly balls that went over the wall being considered home runs, all balls that bounced just once before going over fell into this category, neatly paralleling the fact that, up until 1864 for fair balls and 1883 for foul balls, batted balls caught on one bounce were considered an out; only in 1931 was this rule changed, and the modern-day ground-rule double brought into existence. As such, these days, shenanigans about long fly balls are limited to non-professional games, such as your local little leagues or bar softball games — or, apparently, the Saarikenttä in Finland.

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It's a small slate Thursday, and things have been at their coldest around here of late. It's time to ask sweet Baby Jesus to bless these four-baggers and MLB player props. I don't always look for help, but today it's needed, and one game is getting a lot of attention.

In addition to doubling up on the Rockies-Diamondbacks clash, I'm looking at slugging catcher Shea Langeliers to grab his 13th long ball of the season when he steps in against Jose Soriano and the wobbly Los Angeles Angels bullpen. 

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Hunter Goodman	+447
Corbin Carroll	+445
Shea Langeliers	+350
💲Today's HR parlay	+10600

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+447)

Hunter Goodman is just 1-for-13 in his career against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodríguez, but at this price, there is still plenty of home-run upside today.

First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.

The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.

With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)

The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.

Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.

It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)

Jose Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Shea Langeliers has been a major problem for him.

The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players have a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks (6.60). It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the Bottom 3 in baseball.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, ABTV

Today’s HR parlay

Hunter Goodman	Bet Now +10600
Corbin Carroll
Shea Langeliers

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The New York Mets, ranked fifth in the NL East with a 21-28 record, face the Washington Nationals, who are third in the NL East with a 25-25 record. The game is essentially a pick'em, with the Mets at -115 and the Nationals at -105. Starting pitchers are David Peterson for the Mets, with a 5.40 ERA, and Cade Cavalli for the Nationals, with a 4.05 ERA.

How to watch New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

• Date: Thursday, May 21

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET / 1:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

• TV Channels: NATS, SNY

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• New York Mets: 21-28 (fifth in NL East)

• Washington Nationals: 25-25 (third in NL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Mets -1.5

• Moneyline: Washington Nationals -105 (49.0%) / New York Mets -115 (51.0%)

• Over/Under: 8

Starting pitchers

New York Mets: David Peterson (2-4, ERA: 5.40, K: 46, WHIP: 1.57)

Washington Nationals: Cade Cavalli (2-2, ERA: 4.05, K: 52, WHIP: 1.54)

Weather: 64°F at first pitch

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It's a condensed schedule on a Thursday getaway day, but our expert MLB picks have still found a quartet of prices showing strong value at Polymarket.

See why our baseball experts love the Braves, Jays, and A's to come out victorious tonight... as well as the Mets and Nats going through the motions this afternoon.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: NYM/WAS u8.5	-117
Jon Metler: TOR ML	+133
Neil Parker: ATL ML	-133
Joe Osborne: A's ML	-104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets/Nationals Under 8.5

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor as well, with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket

Braydon Fisher will open for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At 43 cents, I’m more than willing to back Toronto against the New York Yankees, as I make the Blue Jays closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs tonight. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup featuring eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has yet to look sharp since returning from injury, sporting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts and still likely on a restricted pitch count. His fastball-slider combination has historically been vulnerable to right-handed power, and that issue becomes even more concerning when he isn’t at his best. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón, giving the Blue Jays another edge offensively.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate, across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and sits second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: A's moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

This is a great number on the Athletics tonight vs. an Angels team that has lost eight of its last nine games, with the offense bordering on embarrassing. Jose Soriano is crashing back to earth, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 baserunners across his three May starts, while Luis Severino’s numbers remain respectable outside of Sacramento, where he owns a 3.57 ERA. The biggest edge comes offensively, with the A's ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks... and the Angels sitting at 27th. LA’s bullpen has also been a disgrace, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that span.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Toronto Blue Jays, ranked third in the AL East with a 22-27 record, face the New York Yankees, who are second in the AL East with a 30-20 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -150 moneyline compared to the Toronto Blue Jays' +125. Starting pitchers are Braydon Fisher for Toronto, with a 3.08 ERA, and Carlos Rodón for New York, with a 5.63 ERA.

How to watch Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

• Date: Thursday, May 21

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

• TV Channels: MLB Network, YES, SN1

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Toronto Blue Jays: 22-27 (third in AL East)

• New York Yankees: 30-20 (second in AL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5

• Moneyline: New York Yankees -150 / Toronto Blue Jays +125

• Over/Under: 8.0

Starting pitchers

Toronto Blue Jays: Braydon Fisher (2-1, ERA: 3.08, K: 24, WHIP: 1.06)

New York Yankees: Carlos Rodón (0-1, ERA: 5.63, K: 10, WHIP: 1.63)

Weather: 63°F at first pitch

Team News

Triple shy of cycle, red-hot Marte leads dominant D-backs stretch
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/ketel-marte-leads-diamondbacks-to-win-over-giants

Diamondbacks sweep Giants, as Ketel Marte stays hot from walk-off heroicshttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/ketel-marte-stays-hot

Diamondbacks Finish Sweep of Giants Behind Resurgent Ketel Martehttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/diamondbacks-finish-sweep-giants-resurgent-ketel-marte

New Corbin Carroll Update Should Ease Diamondbacks Fans’ Concernshttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/corbin-carroll-update-ease-diamondbacks-fans-concerns

‘Sick of throwing bullpens’: Burnes (UCL surgery) set to face hitters
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/corbin-burnes-to-begin-throwing-to-hitters

The Path Forward for Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks is Clearhttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/the-path-forward-for-ketel-marte-and-the-diamondbacks-is-clear-01ks34xgz1jb

Other Baseball

Rays use 4-run eighth to beat Orioles, complete MLB-best sixth sweep while improving to 21-4 in past 25 games
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/rays-use-4-run-eighth-to-beat-orioles-complete-mlb-best-sixth-sweep-while-improving-to-21-4-in-past-25-games-001219146.html

2026 top 50 MLB prospect rankings update: Made, Emerson, morehttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48825315/top-50-2026-mlb-prospects-rankings-update-jesus-made-leo-de-vries-colt-emerson

Are the White Sox for real? A deep dive into baseball’s Cinderella team
https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-improvements-in-2026-real-or-fluke

History says you can’t score runs without power. This team is proving that wronghttps://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-scoring-runs-without-homers-in-2026

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/may-21

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/May_21

Babies are born without kneecaps. 

Turns out, babies are as soft and delicate as they look. Babies may have more bones than the average fully-grown human, but they definitely won’t be doing any stunts anytime soon. Babies are born with a cartilaginous structure in their knees that will eventually develop into kneecaps by the time they are four years old. 

The smallest ocean is the Arctic ocean.

It is also the shallowest and the coldest ocean among the world’s five ocean basins. The Arctic ocean is about 1.5 times the size of the United States. 

A double rainbow is a mirror image of the first rainbow.

A double rainbow forms when a raindrop has two reflections where one reflection will be at an angle of 42 degrees. However, the sun’s reflection may also cause a second image off the back of the raindrop.

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Today's slate features just seven games, but I've still found value in my MLB player props. 

I'm focusing on strong showings from Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, May 21. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Spencer Strider	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-133
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Over 0.5 runs	-106
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Over 0.5 RBI	+185

Spencer Strider Over 5.5 strikeouts (-133)

Spencer Strider only made his season debut at the beginning of this month, but he's been lights out. The right-hander owns a 2.45 ERA through three starts, and he's struck out 18 hitters in 14 2/3 innings of work. While Strider finished with just four Ks last time out, he cashed the Over in his two other appearances, and both were on the road. 

The Miami Marlins are 12th in team strikeouts, and they're averaging 9.67 punchouts over their previous three contests. Strider hasn't faced many of these Marlins hitters before, but his swing-and-miss stuff is evident right now. He'll rack up the Ks in the series finale here. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, Marlins.TV

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-106)

Ronald Acuna Jr. just returned from injury, and he's made an immediate impact for the Atlanta Braves. The slugger has four runs across his last two games, and he's hit the Over in runs scored in four straight. Acuna had two walks and a hit in the series opener against the Fish, and he registered another base knock on Wednesday. 

The Venezuelan will be licking his chops ahead of tonight's matchup, too. He'll face Sandy Alcantara, against whom he's hitting .342 (13-for-38) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs, and two RBI. He's also drawn eight walks vs. Alcantara, and the Braves are hitting .270 with RISP. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Braves.Vision, Marlins.TV

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+187)

The Toronto Blue Jays take on the New York Yankees again tonight, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be biting at the bit to step up to the plate. Carlos Rodon takes the hill, and Guerrero is 11-for-18 lifetime against the lefty with seven RBI. He's driven in a run in each of the first two games of this series as well. 

The slugger's last three RBI have all been on the road, where he's notched 13 of his 22 RBIs on the year. Rodon has had serious trouble getting Guerrero out, and it's common knowledge that the 27-year-old typically swings it well against the Bronx Bombers overall. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, YES

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