Most years, the outcome of the NBA Draft Lottery doesn't impact the top of the draft board too much — Cooper Flagg was going No. 1 last year and didn't matter which team the ping pong balls favored. Most years are like that.
This year is different. With three (some might say four) players in the top tier of the draft, which team wins the lottery could go a long way in deciding which player gets selected first. Here is the first NBC Sports Mock Draft of the year — there will be more coming (future ones working with the strong team of writers at Rotoworld).
[Note: This was done without consideration of which team will be drafting in which spot, a pointless exercise before the draft lottery.]
1. AJ Dybantsa (BYU)
It's not just the impressive season-long stats — 24.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists per game — or the way he showed out in big games (36 points against Baylor, 35 against Arizona, 28 against Houston), or even that he's maybe the best athlete in the draft as a 6'9" wing player, the archetype most in demand around the NBA right now. What has impressed most is the way Dybantsa can get downhill, create space and hit tough shots when needed. This isn't new, a year ago at the Nike Hoops Summit, he didn't push it in the first half, let the game come to him, then in the third quarter took over, getting to the rim or his spots at will. He has great footwork for a young player, and a comfort level shooting contested shots — and his decision making on when to pass out of those tough shots to open teammates seems to be improving, according to scouts who spoke with NBC Sports. His jumper is also looking better. Who goes No. 1 may ultimately depend on the NBA Draft Lottery and which team lands that pick, but right now Dybantsa seems to be on top of a lot of boards.
2. Darryn Peterson (Kansas)
The question isn't Peterson's talent or potential — it's elite, he is the best playmaker in this class (even if Kansas has him off the ball more), and there are plenty of scouts who still have him atop their draft board — but his health and availability have become talking points. When NBC Sports talked to scouts and team officials about Peterson's yo-yo availability, the cramping that has kept him from finishing some games, and concerns that he is not looking as explosive as he did a year ago, the response is always a variation of "we want to see the medicals." At the NBA Draft Combine, Peterson will undergo a full medical workup, and teams are being patient until then, with many believing the tests will show he was slowed by trying to play through something that is not a long-term issue.
Peterson's talent is unquestioned. He's averaging 19.9 points a game this season while shooting 38.7% from beyond the arc, plus grabbing 4.2 rebounds a game. The 6'5" guard is an incredible shot creator and maker, and a lot of scouts feel Peterson has been held back with the Jayhawks because of their system and lack of floor spacing. Unless the medical reports start waving red flags, Peterson is almost a lock as a top-two pick.
3. Cameron Boozer (Duke)
Boozer plays with the polish and feel for the game you might expect from someone who grew up the son of a very good NBA player (Carlos Boozer was a two-time All-Star). Of the top players near the draft, Boozer has the highest floor — he is going to be a very good, productive pro. He just does everything well: Shooting, rebounding, setting picks, using angles, passing, all of it. When I saw him a year ago at the Nike Hoops Summit, he had 22 points (with a couple of 3-pointers), 16 rebounds, six assists, and a block. That game played into Boozer's reputation as just a winner — the USA would not have beaten the World without Boozer's all-around contributions.
While there are scenarios where Boozer might go No. 1, most likely he goes third because many scouts are not convinced his ceiling is as high, or even that he is a true No. 1 option on a championship team (and as a big he doesn't create his shot the same way as Peterson or Dybantsa). The comp I have heard scouts use is young Kevin Love, but in terms of impact, he may be more like Pau Gasol next to Kobe. That said, whoever lands Boozer is going to get a very good player who can help immediately.
4. Caleb Wilson, North Carolina
Wilson was in the midst of a breakout season with the Tar Heels — averaging 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds a game on 57.8% shooting — until a fractured hand ended his season. Before that injury, he was consistently impressive all season, including dropping 24 on Kansas and 23 on Duke and outplaying Peterson and Boozer in those games. Wilson is a 6'10" forward who is athletic, powerful, and while he needs to develop his shot (25% from 3-point range), his motor and upside have scouts very intrigued, and he likely is the first guy taken after the top three.
5. Kingston Flemings (Houston)
Before this season tipped off, Fleming was in the mid-20s or lower on most draft boards — the kind of player who often stays in college another season because the NIL money is similar to what an NBA salary would be. However, his play has pushed him way up draft boards and now he is a lock one-and-done. He's always been explosive and able to get to the rim, but he's shown a good pull-up jumper this season. Flemming, at 6'4", also has the physical build of a good two-way guard. He's averaging 16.5 points and 5.4 assists a game, and is shooting 37.6% from 3-point range. In what will be a string of guards taken between five and nine, Kingston seems like the safest bet.
6. Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville)
I am slightly higher on Brown than the consensus. I fell in love with his game and his skill as a scorer and shot creator — especially with his use of ball-screens — after watching him at the Nike Hoops Summit. I believe his game is better suited for the pace and space of the NBA than what is happening in Kentucky. The question with Brown has been consistency (and missing eight games with a back issue didn't help things), but when he is rolling — like his 45 points with 3-pointers against NC State — he is dynamic offensively. Brown has to get stronger, play better defense and be consistent, but I believe he is a player teams may regret passing on.
7. Keaton Wagler (Illinois)
Nobody has shot up draft boards like the 6'6" guard from Illinois, a guy who was not in the top 100 in his class a year ago is now projected to be taken in the top six or seven. He's thrived as a point guard for Illinois and, for the season, is averaging 17.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, while shooting 41% from 3-point range. He needs to get stronger and prove he can defend at the NBA level, but he can play on and off the ball and has shown he has room to improve.
8. Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas)
The SEC Player of the Year just keeps on silencing critics with his play on the court — how hard and smart he plays is going to have coaches pushing to pick him. Acuff is averaging 22.2 points and 6.4 assists per game, he is an old-school true point guard who is a great floor general but can also get a team a bucket. The concerns are that he is just 6'2" — smaller guards have struggled in the NBA of late — and he is the worst defender in the lottery. That said, it's easy to envision him thriving when running an NBA offense, and he could help a lot of teams drafting in this range.
9. Nate Ament (Tennessee)
Ament is a great pick at No. 9 — a 6'10" forward who can dribble, pass and shoot. He can face up on the perimeter and has a quick first step to get into the lane. He averaged 17.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game for the Volunteers, although he has been out since late February with a leg injury. He has the tools to be an All-Star in the NBA, but he's got to get stronger, improve his shot creation, and become more consistent. That said, players with his size and skill set tend to stick around in the NBA for a long time.
10. Koa Peat (Arizona)
There is a drop off after the top nine in this draft, but there are still good players with real potential, and Peat is at the top of my list. However, he could slide down this draft board because he is a polarizing prospect and whoever takes him is betting on his potential and their player development program. He's a 6'8" forward who scored 30 in the first game of his college career (against a good Florida team) and 25 in his last one (Colorado), and is averaging 13.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He's a 6'8" forward who is a physical rebounder, is a good passer, but has had injuries and is shooting just 31.6% from 3-point range this season. Teams expect a 6'8" forward to knock down 3s. If a team can develop him, Peat will be a great pick.
11. Brayden Burries (Arizona)
Burries has been one of the real risers in this draft, a 6'4" guard who leads the Wildcats in scoring, a player who isn't flashy but is efficient. What scouts NBC Sports spoke with like about him is that he can play on and off the ball, he can knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers but also attack closeouts, and he gets downhill off screens and has a midrange pull-up game. The question is how well his game translates to the next level, he's an undersized two-guard at the NBA level and not the kind of explosive athlete teams seek. He's a top-20 pick in this draft, but he could slide a little on draft night depending on which teams are doing the selecting.
12. Thomas Haugh (Florida)
One impact of the current CBA and its apron is that teams from the late-lottery onward are taking a hard look at older players who can step in and help immediately. Enter 22-year-old junior Thomas Haugh of Florida. As anyone who watched him help Florida to a national title last year will remember, he has a well-rounded game, is a 6'9" forward, and is exactly the kind of player who can play minutes off the bench for a team next season. He is a high-motor player who makes plays on both ends of the court, can be physical inside, and has improved his perimeter game, hitting 34.4% from 3-point range. He's averaging 17.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game; he's fantastic in transition and is a straight-line drive kind of guy. He's not creating his own shot, but he can fit in a system and help.
13. Braylon Mullins (UConn)
You can't go wrong taking the best shooter in the draft. Mullins is a 6'6" two guard who has an incredibly quick release and is shooting 36.4% from 3-point range this season despite teams loading up on him. Injuries led to a slow start to the season, but he is averaging 12 points a game. The questions about him on the next level are all about defense, if he can't defend well enough it's hard to keep him on the floor. If, after the pre-draft process, he doesn't think he's going in the lottery, Mullins could return to UConn, star for them and go higher a year from now in what is considered a thinner draft.
14. Jayden Quaintance (Kentucky)
This is the point in the draft when rolling the dice on a raw player with all the physical tools is a good plan. Quaintance is exactly that, a 6'10" big man with the potential to be a defensive force in the NBA. He's also played just four games, 67 total minutes this season, as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered last season. He pushed to try to get back, but those four games showed he was not ready. Where Quaintance gets drafted will all come down to the medical reports out of the draft combine and his workouts with teams, but it only takes one team to fall in love with his potential to see him go in the lottery.
