
It’s been a consistent refrain for weeks now as the Yankee offense has limped through the summer: the lineup will soon improve (NARRATOR: It has not improved). Aaron Boone and the Yankees have maintained their belief that things will turn around for the sputtering unit despite watching the bats flail night after night, every run scored feeling like a precious, nonrenewable resource.
Ultimately, though the offense has not improved of its own volition over the last two months, the impending returns of Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge, will all but force the lineup to get better. So let’s dare to dream a little bit today; how good do you think the Yankee offense will be if it gets back to full strength by the end of the season?
First, we can look at what that trio of veteran bats themselves are likely to add to the lineup. At the moment, the ZiPS projection system at FanGraphs pegs Stanton for a 111 wRC+ the rest of the way, Bellinger for a 121 mark, and the incomparable Judge at 175. Anything close to that level of production would be miles better than what most of the offense has done since Judge went down.
Then, there are the plausible multiplicative effects that getting legitimate bats back into the lineup could have. Adding Judge, Bellinger, and Stanton onto the card could add some protection for the hitters that have struggled in their absence, though the effects of lineup protection are often overstated. However, to lean on a separate baseball adage, hitting is contagious. Better players in the lineup means more runners on base, and more runners on base means more advantageous spots for hitters; the league OPS with runners on is more than 40 points this year than the league OPS with no on one base. Hitting begets hitting, something that we may have forgotten after two months of futility.
As hard as it can be to imagine when watching a recent Yankee game, with the scoreline inevitably heading into the eighth inning tied at 1-1, the ceiling here is high. On May 31st, the day Judge was at last sidelined with a rib fracture that had bothered him for over a month, the Yankees had a 117 wRC+ and .342 expected wOBA, both marks tops in the AL and second in MLB, while their position player unit as a whole led baseball in fWAR. This was a team that had already seen Stanton go down, and had not received anything resembling the best version of Judge, the three-time MVP suffering through a slump in the five weeks he played post-injury. In spite of all that, the club’s offense remained elite, thanks to impressive contributions from the likes of Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt.
That looks to me like the fun scenario, the one where getting healthy sparks the Yankee offense to its previous highs. The bear case, of course, isn’t too hard to see. So many of the club’s hitters have floundered in the time since their captain went down, and it’s possible their slumps continue even as the team gets healthier. It’s also possible that Stanton, at 36, is cooked, that Bellinger needs time to get his rhythm back after missing weeks with a hamstring injury, and most of all, that Judge, who may not be fully healed from his rib fracture when he returns and could also need a few weeks to get his timing up to speed, isn’t the Destroyer of Worlds that we’re accustomed to if he comes back in September.
What’s your feeling? In a month’s time, will we see a fully revitalized Yankee offense, reinvigorated after the injection of three sluggers? Will the struggles continue even as the team gets healthier? Or will we find a middle ground, where the club’s offense improves to something better than average, but not to the level it showed at the start of the year? Let us know in the comments below.
It’ll be a busy day on the site as the Yankees get back in action. It’s a three-game set in Baltimore, which Jeff will preview this morning, before Sam runs down last night’s action in the Rivalry Roundup. Matt profiles Burleigh Grimes, born on this day 133 years ago and one of the game’s last spitballers, and Michael recaps the week that was down on the farm, before Peter’s At-bat of the Week, which features, you guessed it, Ben Rice’s game-changing swing in Toronto on Sunday.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
TV: YES Network, MASN
Venue: Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

















