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Foster Griffin has been hit or miss as a starter for the Guardians, but, tonight, he has a chance to be a hero.

The Guardians will play the Orioles tonight, the Twins, the White Sox, the Athletics, the Red Sox and the Royals to conclude the season. Tonight is their last chance to impact a team in (somewhat) competition with them for the third wildcard and a chance to steal a road series while the White Sox play a spunky Pirates’ team. Getting this series would be crucial to giving the Guardians a boost going into the final leg of their road trip.

Griffin’s best pitch this year is his cutter. The Orioles are ranked 27th against cutters this season (don’t look at who is ranked 28th). Of course, the competing issue in this realm is that the Orioles are tenth against LHP this season with a 102 wRC+. Coby Mayo has a 212 wRC+ and Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a 196 wRC+ vs. LHP this season, and, of course, Pete Alonso is one of the best right-handed sluggers in the game; he has only a 117 wRC+ vs. southpaws this season but this include nine homers. Griffin is going to need to navigate these three hitters effectively to survive five-six innings and give the bullpen (which had to pitch four and a third innings yesterday) a chance to do their part. Though the Orioles, as a whole, hit sinkers well, Alonso, Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have struggled vs. sinkers and cutters this year, all below average. If Griffin can locate those two offerings well, he will give himself a chance to neutralize these three biggest threats to his ability to deliver a good performance.

With that said, a word to Stephen Vogt – if Griffin can get through four innings with the lead, don’t be afraid to have a quick hook ready for him if he runs into trouble in the fifth. Griffin has been a LOT worse in the fifth and suffers a good bit with the third-time-through-the-order-penalty (5.47 ERA compared to 2.77 ERA in innings 1-4). Tim Herrin and Craig Yoho both threw 17 pitches yesterday so should be available if needed for a limited appearance, and Cade Smith should be fine with the off-day approaching tomorrow. Hunter Gaddis threw over 20 pitches, so it’s likely Erik Sabrowski should be seen as the eighth inning guy. With the expanded roster, giving Daniel Espino, Franco Aleman or even Matt Festa a clean inning in the fifth and then bridging the next two innings with whoever is not chosen for that task and having Yoho and Herrin available to finish off a handedness-based matchup in the sixth or seventh should be feasible if the team even makes a predetermination to remove Griffin in the fifth with a lead or tie.

Griffin reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Nationals to see if he can land a bigger payday in free agency. Good for him, it’s likely his only shot for a payday. This kind of game tonight – in a tight playoff hunt against a solid offensive foe – is a chance for him to demonstrate to all prospective teams in the offseason that he’s a reliable option who deserves to get a multi-year, lucrative deal. Last start, Griffin was demonstrative toward Angel Genao after a groundball got through the infield. Tonight, he needs to worry about his own darn self. This is your chance to show why Cleveland acquired you and why you should be considered one of the top free agent starting pitchers in November. The ball’s in your glove.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are a modest home favorite to sweep their three-game series against the Chicago Cubs ahead of the 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch at American Family Field on Wednesday, Sept. 9.

My top Cubs vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks anticipate the two offenses sending this total Over the number in a Cubs win tonight.

Who will win Cubs vs Brewers today: Cubs moneyline (45.9%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Chicago Cubs have taken consecutive tough-luck losses, and I’m anticipating veteran righty Kevin Gausman building off his statement start against the Milwaukee Brewers last time out to lead the North Siders to victory tonight.

Chicago has stranded 17 runners through the first two games of the series, and it’ll see Milwaukee righty Logan Henderson for the second time in less than a week.

The Cubbies are fifth in wOBA and third in ISO against righties for the campaign, and they also pace the majors in xwOBA and wRC+ over the past 30 days, so I’m expecting them to plate more base runners in the series finale.

Finally, with a travel day ahead, I expect the Cubbies to leave it all on the field to avoid a series sweep, and I'd back the Chicago moneyline at 48.8%.

COVERS INTEL: The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers respectively rank first and fourth in wOBA and second and first in on-base percentage this season.

Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (51.2%)

In addition to the highlighted success of the Chicago offense, the Brewers have also been rolling at the dish.

Milwaukee paces the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the year, and they also rank second in wOBA and eighth in xwOBA over the past 30 days.

The Cubbies have played to the Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI), too, so I’d recommend the Over 7.5 to 53.5%.

Cubs vs Brewers home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (23.9%)

Cubbies star Pete Crow-Armstrong took Henderson deep last week, and his .316 ISO against righties is second in the majors.

Additionally, Crow-Armstrong paces the league with 20 homers and a .395 ISO in the second half.

Cubs vs Brewers weather

The roof is expected to be closed at American Family Field tonight because of lingering cloudy conditions and a 20-35% chance of scattered morning or early-evening showers, with the climate-controlled indoor temperature set to a perfect 72°F.

Status of the movable roof at American Family Field is available on the official website of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cubs vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Cubs 47.6% | Brewers 56.5%
• Run line: Cubs +1.5 (64.3%) | Brewers -1.5 (39.2%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52.5%) | Under 7.5 (52.5%)

Cubs vs Brewers trend

The Chicago Cubs have won 25 of their past 40 road games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers.

How to watch Cubs vs Brewers and game info

Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country.

Elly De La Cruz has not yet reached Tungsten Arm O’Doyle levels of legendry just yet, but he’s close. In the dark of the night on Tuesday while plying his trade against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Elly swatted a gargantuan 444 foot homer off of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal that left the baseball world once again in awe, doing so as the Reds fell 3-2 to drop their second straight game (and the series as a whole) against the Evil Empire out west.

He also added a relay throw from shallow CF that nailed Teoscar Hernandez at the plate, a throw that Statcast measured at a whopping 105.3 mph.

The arm is completely ridiculous. That’s effectively peak Aroldis Chapman on the mound, and it comes from a guy who now leads all of Major League Baseball in average, slugging percentage, and OPS against left-handed pitching just one year after the switch-hitter saw prompts for him from idiots to consider abandoning hitting right-handed altogether.

Though he missed a few weeks due to injury and recently was relegated to DH-only duties due to a quad strain, there are now only four (4!) players across MLB who have been more valuable than Elly, per FanGraphs. He’s been a 5.3 fWAR, 5.0 bWAR player so far this season, joining Eric Davis and Joe Morgan as the only three players in Reds history to post multiple 25 homer, 25 steal seasons.

Still, he somehow has his doubters. People will point to the errors at SS, the lack of stealing 67 bases again, and the still-untapped upside he clearly possesses as the reasons why, among other silliness. For whatever reason, it seems some folks still choose to discount what Elly provides both the Reds and the masses as the Reds themselves continue to languish in the cellar of the NL Central.

I want to hear it from you, though. What grade would you give Elly for his 2026 performance? Just how good as Cincinnati’s superstar been in your eyes?

Let us know in the poll below!

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Baseball all day LONG!

My MLB moneyline predictions for today's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Milwaukee Brewers.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9.

MLB moneyline picks for September 9

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Twins vs Tigers	46%
Blue Jays vs Athletics	64%
Cardinals vs Giants	55%
Nationals vs Padres	63%
Rangers vs Mariners	42%
Guardians vs Orioles	52%
Astros vs Phillies	41%
Mets vs Marlins	54%
Angels vs Red Sox	34%
Rockies vs Yankees	69%
Rays vs Braves	46%
Diamondbacks vs Royals	48%
Pirates vs White Sox	56%
Cubs vs Brewers	55%
Reds vs Dodgers	28%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 9.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 9

Twins vs Tigers: Twins 

Twins win probability: 46%

There is nothing gravitating me toward wanting to back the Tigers in this one. Why would you want to pay juice for a team that has had a wRC+ below 85 for over 21 games now?

Sure, the Twins have an 80 over their last six, but over their last 21, they are above 100. Plus, Zebby Matthews has found his footing late in the season, owning a 2.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP while allowing very minimal hard contact.

Trust the Twins.

Blue Jays vs Athletics: Blue Jays 

Blue Jays win probability: 64%

Paying this much juice for the Blue Jays has not been the most fun bet to make this season. However, their bats have come alive over their last 21 games, posting a 120 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .777 OPS.

It looks like Toronto is going with a bullpen game on the bump this afternoon, which could make things a little sweaty, but it is the Blue Jays or nothing here.

Cardinals vs Giants: Cardinals 

Cardinals win probability: 55%

The road team speaks to me more in this matchup, as Andre Pallante has been pretty solid across his last five starts, posting a 2.51 ERA while limiting hard-hit balls.

The Birds' bats have been much hotter than the Giants' over the last week-plus, and Blade Tidwell has been allowing a concerning amount of barrels over his last three starts.

Give me the Cardinals. 

Nationals vs Padres: Padres 

Padres win probability: 63%

Walker Buehler has been a breath of fresh air over his last five outings, sporting a 2.57 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while limiting hitters to just a 28% hard-hit rate.

The Padres' bats have gone a bit cold, but the Nationals are much colder, posting just a 78 wRC+, .639 OPS, and a near 28% strikeout rate over their last six games.

Pay the juice.

Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers 

Rangers win probability: 42%

Cody Bradford may not have looked the sexiest across his last few starts, but the Rangers' bats are far too hot to fade at the moment.

Kade Anderson has a 5.40 ERA through three starts while owning a 2.94 xERA, so he could be due for some progression. But with how hot the Rangers are at the plate, it shouldn't be today.

Guardians vs Orioles: Guardians  

Guardians win probability: 52%

The Orioles' near 30% strikeout rate and 79 wRC+ over their last week of play are a major turnoff in this spot. Sure, Foster Griffin is not a strikeout pitcher, but he has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls for the Guardians over his last few outings.

The team playing better baseball over their last six, 12, and 21 games is the Guardians.

Astros vs Phillies: Astros 

Astros win probability: 41%

The Cristopher Sanchez tax is in full effect today, as the Phillies are a heavy favorite. However, their lineup has been ice cold, posting just a 74 wRC+, .279 wOBA, and .633 OPS over their last six games.

Houston has not been much better, but Hunter Brown has been nails for the Astros. The right-hander has posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing just a 6.38% barrel rate.

Take the dog.

Mets vs Marlins: Marlins

Marlins win probability: 54%

In Janson Junk we trust!

The Marlins right-hander has been extremely solid over his last few starts, and he draws a Mets lineup that has been swinging a hot bat. If Junk can keep New York in check, the Marlins should have a favorable matchup on the other side against Robert Stock.

Stock owns a 6.52 ERA over his last three outings, and Miami should have an opportunity to put some pressure on him early. If Junk can do his part against this Mets lineup, I like the Fightin' Fish to come out on top.

Angels vs Red Sox: Angels

Angels win probability: 34%

The Ryan Johnson disrespect has gone too far!

The Angels starter has been excellent over his last five starts, posting a 1.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while allowing a hard-hit rate under 40%.

Sure, Red Sox starter Jake Bennett has been great, but the Angels seemed just fine in last night's 6-1 win.

Give the dogs a chance!

Rockies vs Yankees: Yankees

Yankees win probability: 69%

Death. Taxes. Why on earth would we ever back Tomoyuki Sugano?

Yankees right-hander Will Warren has been very solid in his most recent starts, while Sugano owns a 9.69 ERA over his last three.

Yankees or nothing.

Rays vs Braves: Rays 

Rays win probability: 46%

The Rays as a dog? Yes, please!

Football must really be back, because why on earth would the Braves be a favorite here with Reynaldo Lopez on the bump? He owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Griffin Jax has a 2.75 xERA over his last five starts while allowing just a 5.63% barrel rate. The Rays' bats are also much hotter than the Braves' at this point in time.

Rays or nothing.

Diamondbacks vs Royals: Royals

Royals win probability: 48%

Royals or nothing here.

It is perplexing as to why a team with a 70 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and .116 ISO, with a pitcher who owns a 5.40 ERA on the mound this evening, is a road favorite.

The Royals' bats have been scorching hot, so keep leaning into that. 

Pirates vs White Sox: White Sox 

White Sox win probability: 56%

This White Sox team has to bounce back after last night's blowout loss. They could lose the Central if they do not put their heads down and get back to work now!

Right-hander Davis Martin has not been the greatest over his last few starts, but he has been nails all season long at the Rate. Hopefully, this team can bring the juice, as they typically do after a big loss.

Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers 

Brewers win probability: 55%

This should be a good old-fashioned pitchers' duel, as both big-glove Kevin Gausman and Logan Henderson have been lights out over their last few starts.

The Cubs' offense has started to dip over their last six games, as they own a sub-100 wRC+, .314 wOBA, and .139 ISO.

With the Cubs' horrendous bullpen, the lean will always go to the other team when they are cold at the dish.

Reds vs Dodgers: Reds

Reds win probability: 28%

We are not paying that much juice for any team to win a game. Give me the red-hot Reds bats as a major underdog.

Luckily for us, the Dodgers' bats have been a little cold as of late, barely barreling the ball or making hard contact. No reason to pay all that juice.

GO REDS GO!

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As October draws near for teams in playoff contention, they are starting to use this time to put their bullpen in a pecking order. They have had a season’s worth of data and observation to determine which of the players in the bullpen are worthy of logging those high stress innings that come with pitching in the postseason. Maybe there were some recent callups that they would like to see in bigger spots to check for resiliency, to check to see how the nerves will hold up when the lights get a little brighter. Nothing can replicated the pressures of playoff baseball until the situation actually comes up, but in some games, there are ways to get players as close as possible, so that’s what teams try to do.

The Phillies are no strangers to this. Recently, they have begun trying things out with Alex McFarlane, putting him into spots that are at least close to mirroring those that he could be used in in October. At times, he has responded with aplomb:

Other times, he has not succeeded:

What has become more obvious is that the coaching staff has preferred that McFarlane come up in those spots instead of another young right hander that has good stuff.

The Phillies did not lose Friday night’s game against the Braves thanks to Orion Kerkering. When he came into the game that night, the team was already down a run, so his job was simply to hold the fort. The offense was stifled for most of the evening, even though they had a few chances to do damage against Braves starter Chris Sale. Yet when the team was in a higher leverage spot, it was McFarlane that called upon to get the more difficult part of the Braves’ order (Michael Harris, Ronald Acuna, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies), making Kerkering’s job of simply holding down the fort a bit easier. He wasn’t facing slouches that would slot into the order against him, but it’s not the same quintet that McFarlane faced.

And yet, once again, Kerkering came up short, allowing a two run home run to Mauricio Dubon that essentially salted the game away for Atlanta and gave them a series opening win.

This has become something of a regular pattern for Kerkering of late. He has struggled when put into games late, positing a 4.50 ERA in innings seven through nine. That’s 23rd among pitchers that have between 35 and 50 innings pitched in those final three frames, but they are skewed slightly by his only throwing four innings in the ninth inning. For his season, Kerkering has allowed:

• 4.70 ERA in 15 1/3 innings pitched in the seventh inning
• 4.72 ERA in 26 2/3 innings pitched in the eighth inning

He has not pitched well when called on late in games. The trust that he will be able to right the ship in time for more meaningful games has dwindled to the point where one should openly wonder the coaching staff would trust him.

They should not. Orion Kerkering should not be put in high leverage situations any longer.

The problem is that there are issues the Phillies are having in those spots. Prior to the season, Brad Keller was signed following a highly successful 2025 season in which he was one of the best relievers in the game in those same innings with the Cubs. Giving Keller those big spots in front of Duran gave the Phillies, at least on paper, an edge when it came to closing down games. Once Keller got off to a slow start then eventually succumbed to injury, the Phillies were forced into plan B. Luckily for them, Jonathan Bowlan has had a very good season in a trade with the Royals, becoming Don Mattingly’s preferred option in the eighth when the team has a lead.

However, Bowlan cannot pitch every game and has himself shown signs of weariness of late, giving up home runs in three of his last four outings. That’s why the team has been looking elsewhere for someone to start handling those high leverage spots. At first it was Kerkering, but he has not demonstrated with any kind of consistency that he is an answer in those situations. Does that put the Phillies in a sizeable disadvantage? Of course it does. Going to October thinking that only a few options currently sitting in the bullpen can handle any kind of leverage situation has to be frustrating. They will continue to try out McFarlane thanks to his superior stuff and the fact that many teams probably haven’t seen much of him yet thanks to his newness to the league.

One thing that they can’t do is put Kerkering in those spots. Handling the fifth, sixth innings, when there is still time to make things change in the game? Those are the places where he needs to live for the forseeable future.

So long as it’s not a high leverage spot, that’ll do just fine.

If you had just a little bit less than five months, you win the prize. The question? How long can a pretty good team last with no bullpen? With smoke and mirrors and grit and perseverance, they held in there for a long time. The bullpen was never good, but for most of the year it was largely functional. My concern all along ended up being well founded. The dynamic offense was covering up a lot of weaknesses. Through the whole first half of the season, the team largely wasn’t playing any “standard” type of game where the team is leading after six and hands it to the bullpen. When you pair that with a mountain of injuries, no pitcher really ever settled into any kind of role.

Then, around midseason Jacob Webb got insanely hot. He was the less heralded of the two offseason bullpen acquisitions. Phil Maton, long since gone to injury after months of ineffectiveness, was the one with the pedigree. Maton has a contract that runs past this year. I’m sure Cub fans will welcome him back next year with open arms and minds. Alas, that’s a conversation for another day. But Webb, he dominated for a couple of months there. And for a second time, this team covered for their ineptitude in the bullpen.

To give credit where credit is due, the Cubs probably found a half dozen guys this year who I find really intriguing. The problem was, every single one of them got overexposed. They all ended up in bigger roles and in bigger situations than was intended for them. Some of them succumbed to injury, some to ineffectiveness and only one or two remain mostly effective.

As the season has worn on and the games increasingly the games feel like postseason games, the bullpen is increasingly exposed. The result is a heaping handful of late season blown saves. I say that with some irony. I’ve defended the team a fair bit. The blown save statistic gets more and more useless as teams go to relievers earlier and earlier. If you are spouting Cub blown saves, I’m always going to ask you if you are aware of the fifth inning blown save in what I believe was a 2-1 game. What decade was it when you expected any team to allow a reliever to throw 4+ innings in a one run game?

In my best sarcastic voice, I can’t wait for a team to use two openers and then a bulk guy. That would allow the guy who pitches the largest number of innings to potentially be credited with a save in relief for someone who only faces a few batters in relief. I’m sure official scorers don’t want more decisions on their plate, but they should absolutely be given discretion as to if a blown save applies. The rule of thumb? Was it plausible that the reliever would finish the game?

Rant aside though, dating back to the Mariners series, there have been a whole series of legit blown saves. Of course there were some legit ones before that, but since that series in Seattle, it has felt like every save was blown. That’s not true. When I stop and think for a minute, I remember Ryan Zeferjahn’s save clearly. There have been a few. But there haven’t been nearly enough. This year’s Cub season is almost certain to end with a combo platter of one of their own pitchers going into the game with what appears to be a fire extinguisher and turn out to be straight pouring gasoline on a fire. Then, the other team’s effective closer will blow the Cubs away, leaving them shaking their head.

In the post mortem for this season, it’s going to be interesting to simultaneously have loved the aggressive trade deadline that netted players that solved real problems for this team while also being frustrated that the team didn’t obtain a legit closer. I’d feel 100 times better with Ryan Rolison and Trent Thornton working the sixth inning, Zeferjahn the seventh, Webb the eighth and some acquired closer working the ninth.

So much frustration. Somehow, this game would have been better with a run scoring in the bottom of the eighth and a 2-1 victory closed out by Trevor Megill. Chasing Megill, failing to score more against DL Hall and then watching the Cub bullpen blowing the ninth and tenth innings was downright awful. Baseball is a cruel, cruel mistress.

Three Positives:

• Aaron Civale faced six batters, retired all of them and struck out the first four. I understand there have been some observations about leverage. He faced six batters in a tie game against the team with the best record in baseball.
• Carson Kelly came through with a pinch-hit, two-run double in the ninth to give the Cubs the lead.
• Michael Conforto came off of the bench for a match-up platoon. He was hit by a pitch and drew a walk. The Cubs only had 12 base runners all day, seven hits, three walks and two hit batters.

Game 146, September 8: Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (81-65)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Carson Kelly (.239). 1-1, 2B, 2 RBI
• Hero: Aaron Civale (.164). 2 IP, 6 BF, 4 K
• Sidekick: Michael Conforto (.156). 0-0, BB, HBP

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jacob Webb (-.407). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 2 R
• Goat: Alex Bregman (-.387). 0-5
• Kid: Caleb Thielbar (-.188). 0.1 IP, 2 H, BB, R (0 ER), K

WPA Play of the Game: Jackson Chourio’s two-run homer with two outs in the ninth to tie the game. (.491)

Cubs Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run double in the top of the ninth inning. (.240)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 147 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 33 of 74 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +27
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
• Michael Conforto +15
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Seiya Suzuki -15
• Nico Hoerner -17
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: Phillies lose (0.5 games up on Cubs). Braves lose (5.5 up). Diamondbacks win (3 back). Brewers win (nine up). Padres win (3.5 back). Dodgers win (7.5 up).

Up Next: The Cubs will try to salvage a win in this series and a split of their road trip. They are 5-7 since their last off day. They are 7-12 in their last 19. Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38) starts for the Cubs. He’s won his last three starts, including one against the Brewers. He allowed one run over seven in that one. Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48) starts for the Brewers. He lost that game to Gausman, despite only allowing three hits and two runs over seven innings.

Find a win. That first Wild Card is still very much within the Cubs’ grasp, but they’ve got to get back to winning games. Maybe, the offense will break out. They haven’t done so now since August 31 when they scored 17 against the Brewers.

Morning, all!

The Ranger have used an off day to tweak their rotation to maximize the number of starts for their hottest hand, Cal Quantrill

Both Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi are nearing returns from the IL in time to participate in the Rangers’ last, desperate push for a playoff spot.

Evan Grant has whipped up a recipe to get the Rangers into the playoffs but the number one ingredient is ““stop sucking on the road.”

Skip Schumaker sent a message to the team leaders Tuesday, telling them they only have one chance at 2026.

The message must have landed as the Rangers opened their series against Seattle yesterday with a 10-5 win.

And finally, here’s a baseball joke about chorale that Adam wanted me to share.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers get the chance to tee off on Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder tonight, and the Over for that contest headlines our MLB expert picks on Wednesday, Sept. 9.

A trio of moneyline predictions round out our MLB picks for the slate, with action kicking off this afternoon and rolling all the way to the wee hours of the night.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: ATH ML	37%
Jon Metler: ATL ML	54%
Neil Parker: TEX ML	43%
Joe Osborne: CIN/LAD o8.5	50%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: A's moneyline

Price: 37¢ at Polymarket

Do the Toronto Blue Jays deserve to be a bigger favorite today than yesterday, going from Jose Soriano to a bullpen day?

This offense still can't pull away from bad pitching, and now it has to get on a plane and head home to open a circled series against the Orioles.

Braydon Fisher gets the start but will go one or two frames before likely handing the ball to Michael Lorenzen, Brendon Little, and/or Paul Sewald. There is no good Toronto arm to piggyback and eat big innings.

The Athletics are going with the same approach, but at least I'm getting 13 percentage points better than a 50% probability with them against the Jays. I don't see this as a 63/37 game when both teams will be using a ton of arms and the Jays are in a tough schedule spot.

This isn't much different than the Dylan Cease start price. I see this as 60/40, at best, for Toronto.

Ethan Diamandas has more with his Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, NBC Sports California

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 54¢ at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves are trading as 54% favorites on Polymarket in their matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, and I see an edge because I price Atlanta closer to 57%. 

Two things I particularly like about this matchup for the Braves will help neutralize Tampa Bay's speed and running game.

First, Reynaldo Lopez isn't afraid to challenge hitters with velocity at the top of the zone, making it more difficult for the Rays' slap hitters to put the ball on the ground and beat out plays at first base. Second, Sean Murphy has a quick transfer and an elite pop time, limiting Tampa Bay's running game once the Rays get runners on base.

For an opposing angle, check out Jason Wilson's Rays vs. Braves predictions.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rays.TV, BravesVsn

Neil Parker's expert pick: Rangers moneyline

Price: 43¢ at Polymarket

While big things are ahead for Seattle Mariners prized prospect Kade Anderson, he lands in a tough matchup against the rolling Texas Rangers.

Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and also sits eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game.

Anderson has also underwhelmed at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup, and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike rate.

With the Mariners ranking last in wOBA against lefties, 24th in the overall metric, and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I recommend the Texas moneyline up to 44%.

For more on this game, Neil has a complete set of Rangers vs. Mariners predictions waiting for you.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Reds at Dodgers Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

The Los Angeles Dodgers are heating up at the right time and are in a great spot to tee off on the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff.

Rhett Lowder has been obliterated on the road, where he owns a 6.79 ERA. He's backed by a struggling bullpen that has a 6.23 ERA over the past two weeks.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a tougher assignment, but Cincinnati’s lineup is red-hot, ranking first in OPS over the past week and should make him work.

With the Reds capable of contributing and Los Angeles positioned to do serious damage, expect the teams to combine for at least nine runs.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Reds.TV, SportsNet LA

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The Toronto Blue Jays go for another important win against the Athletics this afternoon, and Sutter Health Park gives their lineup one of the best hitting environments in baseball.

Toronto is a -180 favorite, with first pitch set for 3:05 p.m. ET. Both clubs are using openers, but the Blue Jays have the deeper pitching setup and enter in much better form.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions and MLB picks for this Wednesday, Sept. 9 matchup.

Blue Jays vs A’s predictions

Blue Jays vs A’s best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays enter Wednesday 7-3 over their last 10 games, scoring 52 runs while batting .277 with a .347 OBP. Five of those seven wins came by multiple runs, and I like Toronto to create that separation again against baseball’s worst pitching staff.

Brady Basso will open for the Athletics, but he hasn't worked more than three innings in any appearance this season. That puts a large portion of this game on an Oakland staff that has struggled badly to keep the ball in the yard at home.

Toronto is also opening with Braydon Fisher, but John Schneider has the better bullpen situation. Fisher owns a 3.20 ERA, while José Soriano worked seven innings yesterday and Spencer Miles handled the final two. With an off-day Thursday, Schneider can be aggressive with his available relievers.

At the same -115 price as Over 9, I’d rather back the better team to win by two than rely on Oakland to do its share of the scoring.

COVERS INTEL: Oakland’s pitchers own a 6.33 ERA at Sutter Health Park and have surrendered 135 home runs in 70 games there.

Blue Jays vs A’s same-game parlay (SGP)

For the SGP, I’m leaning into Toronto’s middle of the order. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk both draw a favorable start against left-hander Brady Basso and should get multiple cracks at an Athletics staff that's struggled badly at home.

Guerrero is batting .283 with a .383 OBP against lefties this season, while Kirk has been even better from a contact standpoint at .308. Basso has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .305 against him with a 5.40 ERA in those matchups.

Both total base props also benefit from Sutter Health Park, which has played as the most hitter-friendly stadium in baseball this season. If Vlad and Kirk are both piling up bases in the heart of the order, it naturally supports the final leg of the parlay, a Toronto win.

Blue Jays vs A’s SGP

• Blue Jays -1.5
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total baes
• Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 total bases

Blue Jays vs A’s home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+300)

Kazuma Okamoto is the shortest home run price on the board, and this is a spot where I’m willing to pay for the best power bat. Okamoto hit his 30th home run of the season Tuesday and appears locked into one of his power surges.

He also draws an excellent opening matchup against Basso, who's allowed all three of his home runs this season to right-handed hitters. Basso leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it roughly 44% of the time, and that plays directly into Okamoto’s strength. He owns a .562 slugging percentage against four-seamerswith a 52.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch.

The park only strengthens the case. Sutter Health Park carries a 129 home run factor, and Oakland has allowed nearly two homers per home game this season. I’d rather back Toronto’s best power threat in an ideal environment than chase a longer number on a weaker home run profile.

Blue Jays vs A’s odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -180 | Athletics +155
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (-115) | Athletics +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-115)

Blue Jays vs A’s trend

The Blue Jays are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have scored 52 runs over that stretch, while Oakland’s pitching staff owns a 6.33 ERA at Sutter Health Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. A’s.

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