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Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
• A June swoon so far
• Awful
• Fake it and maybe make it
• With some luck, back on the horse
• Dwelling in the dog days of August
• All we do is accumulate wins
• Slouching towards the NL East title

In September’s latter half, the Braves did a big thing: they clinched their first NL East title in three seasons (but seventh in nine seasons under the current Front Office). They did so with a sweep of the Astros in Houston, while dropping every other series they played. Of course, that sounds more woeful than it was, as it was really one series win against a contender, one series loss to a contender, and then six meaningless games where the Braves largely played their regulars but goofed around on the pitching end, and didn’t really do anything that well in the process.

So, as a result, the stats from their 5-5 end to the month (after a 7-7 start) are kind of meaningless. The Braves didn’t end their 2026 regular season on a high note, but… no one’s gonna remember that either way, given that the season’s story was pretty much written before these last few weeks, anyway. If the Braves have a postseason run, or if they don’t, these last two weeks won’t really matter to anyone either way.

Probably the biggest thing to note is that the Braves didn’t collapse. Collapsing is kind of hard to do when you win a bunch of games you shouldn’t in aggregate, but there was no karmic payback or anything. The 2026 Braves started with division odds of about 1-in-3, which shot up to 3-in-4 and higher in mid-April and stayed there until late June. They were coin flip-y with a slight edge around the All-Star Break, were up to nearly unity in mid-August, and then bounced around some more in the 70-95 percent range until becoming basically a sure thing once they fended off the Phillies. The clinch was just a formality, really.

How did the Braves do recently?

Keeping in mind that these stats don’t really tell a useful story given that the Braves largely mailed it in for six of ten games in this span, they were:

• 23rd in position player value — 21st in wRC+, 17th in xwOBA, 11th defensively
• 24th in pitching value (inclusive of goofing off, as noted) — 17th in ERA-, 26th in FIP-, and 11th in xFIP-, with no real difference between the rotation and bullpen.

So, what can you say, really? Of the four games that mattered, the Braves were favored in one but won three; if the remaining six, they were favored in five and won two. Eh.

How are the Braves doing on the season?

Well, they won 94 games and clinched the NL East with six games to go. They finished those same six games ahead of the Phillies, whom they’ll play in the Wild Card round best-of-three. 94 wins is good for MLB’s fourth-best record, and they also had MLB’s fifth-best run differential, but just the tenth-best BaseRuns-based record. (Only the Reds, Rays, and Phillies outperformed BaseRuns by more this season.) My own personal amusement is that if you went solely off BaseRuns, the NL playoff field would feature the Dodgers, Brewers, and Marlins as the division winners, and the Cubs, Pirates, and Braves as the Wild Card teams. (Of course, some of that would need to be rejiggered given that the Braves probably don’t goof off for six games if they trail the Marlins by a game.)

The overall team ranks are not kind to the Braves as far as the 2026 season goes.

• 21st in position player fWAR
• 20th in wOBA and wRC+; 14th in xwOBA
• Sixth in defensive value (yay)
• 13th in pitching fWAR (17th rotation, 12th bullpen)
• Fifth in ERA- (seventh, fourth)
• 15th in FIP- (17th, 12th)
• 11th in xFIP- (14th, 11th)

Yeah, this is not really a good team. While anything can happen in a short series, it’s easy to say that when the Braves lost those sets to the Phillies in 2022 and 2023, it was baseball being baseball, and the Braves were a better team. In 2026… sure, one or the other is better by some specific paradigm, but neither seems particularly good at all.

By the way, the 21st finish in position player fWAR was the team’s lowest since it also did so in 2017. The same goes for its hitting outputs (25th in 2017); hitting inputs had their lowest rank since the 2018 team finished 18th. I don’t know what’s going to happen this offseason, but this team needs a clear reinvention of its offensive wheel, with whatever strategic and personnel moves are needed to get there. Changes weren’t warranted from 2024 to 2025, and things somehow got worse this year, which I would never have guessed given how 2025 transpired.

How are the hitters doing?

Yeesh.

Three of the team’s good bats picked it up over these last two weeks. Mauricio Dubon decided to add some wild xwOBA overperformance for fun. Matt Olson could’ve had a better run, but whatever — he ended up with a really rough September in the end. But all the guys that struggled? Well, they pretty much struggled, except for seven PAs of Dominic Smith. Ozzie Albies absolutely collapsed. Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Ha-Seong Kim remained mired in their doldrums. Put this all together, and the seasonal lines look kinda nasty for a lot of these ten guys who crossed the 200 PA threshold.

Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin were legit. No complaints about Ronald Acuña Jr. or Mauricio Dubon. I won’t even touch Murphy and Kim, who maybe could’ve solved things with enough time (Murphy’s bat speed is a real problem). But, the inability to do much to help Riley, to play Smith for 300 PAs despite obvious backsliding in his offensive approach that led to him hitting poorly, Mike Yastrzemski running into a career-worst year… like I said, there are a lot of issues to address.

At least almost everyone basically ended up where expected but for Dubon, and no one fell into some kind of horrendous xwOBA underperformance trap.

How are the pitchers doing?

Let’s also include the relievers, I guess.

Everyone got kinda shelled HR/FB-wise these last two weeks, but whatever. Chris Sale was still awesome, everyone else was meh or worse, especially when including the homers.

On the season, this was a team with Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, and a bunch of standout relief performances… and that’s about it. Martin Perez was surprisingly helpful, even if he got there in an annoying way. Some guys were pretty awful; the Braves had the latitude to part ways with Tyler Kinley before he could do even more damage, but JR Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver really didn’t take any huge steps forward. Smith-Shawver only had like 30 innings, so not a huge deal, but it was kind of a bummer to not see more from Ritchie despite repeated chances.

If I had to give special shoutouts this season, I’d go:

• Michael Harris II — led the team in both fWAR thanks to his defense, but also WPA despite not having the best overall batting line. Harris had a weird year where he had an insane .442 xwOBA in April but then it declined every month afterwards, dipping under .300 in August… but he bounced back with a pretty big September (.337) despite some underperformance.
• Chris Sale – duh. While WPA does not really “accrue” to the pitcher because it includes defensive plays made behind the pitcher, it’s telling that Sale and the defense had a “shutdown” in 15 of his 27 outings, while only posting any negative WPA in seven outings, and a “meltdown”-level WPA in just three of them.
• Didier Fuentes, who finished second in actual shutdowns and meltdowns, but nonetheless tied Dylan Lee with 2.1 fWAR, which ranks second on the team overall behind Sale.

All that said, with all the various struggles, I do think this was basically the Season of Chris Sale for the Braves, as he was consistently, unequivocally good.

And now, we let the tournament take over.

They are in the playoffs. Let’s not dwell too much on the how; let’s just focus on the fact that they are in. That’s all they need to make some noise in the playoffs.

Three up

Zack Wheeler – Imagine this season without an Ace level Wheeler. He was always going to come back from the injury he had, if only because the trainers and medical staff of the Phillies were never really worried that it would end his career. How he would perform was an altogether different question. Would he be the Ace the team had relied on for many years, or something of a shell of himself? No one really knew until he actually started pitching….and then we knew. He was the one that the team would depend on each and every time. Many people outside of the organization point to the firing of Rob Thomson as the turning point of this season, but the real ones know: once Wheeler returned, that’s when it all changed.

Aaron Nola – I’m not going to get down on a guy that asked for the ball on short rest when the team needed someone to step up. Nola may have gotten blitzed in that start Saturday night, but good on him for wanting to do something to help the team. His resurgence this season was one of the reasons they are still playing baseball. Imagine if he was the bad version of Nola. Does this team make the playoffs at all?

Bryson Stott – The only bat worthy of this tier, Stott was good this week, boosted by his 3 for 3 performance on Sunday. While it will be how the stars fare against the Braves that determines if they are able to advance to meet the Dodgers, the complimentary bats like Stott and Alec Bohm also have to show something of a pulse if they expect to do anything.

Three down

Jose Alvarado – Let’s ask the true question when it comes to Alvarado: was Saturday night the final time we see him in a Phillies uniform? One can argue that there really is no reason to pitch him in the playoffs outside of a mop up appearance. Tanner Banks and Tim Mayza are more than likely ahead of him on the left handed pecking order if a southpaw is needed in the next week, so there really is no reason to call on him when the game is on the line. He might still have decent stuff (I’d argue he doesn’t), but the absolute loss of knowing where that stuff is going means he cannot be put into leverage situations, situations that abound in the playoffs. He was good when they needed him to be, but his time here is at an end.

J.T. Realmuto – Yes he had the big hit Sunday, arguably the biggest one, but boy is he bad right now. One could spin it in a positive direction and say he had bad luck, but that would be strictly looking at data and not watching with your eyes. He is not right at the plate.

Alec Bohm – Another that really isn’t swinging a good bat either, Bohm might be the key to the lineup outside of the big three. Hitting behind that trio, especially against Chris Sale, Bohm is going to have to have a key hit or two if they have a chance to steal Game 1.

Another installment of Yankees-Red Sox in October? Yes, please! 

For the seventh time, these familiar rivals meet in the playoffs and, if the past is any indication, we’re due for more history, another slice of perma-angst for at least one fanbase, and maybe a new pejorative nickname or two. 

In this best-of-three AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, both teams must cope with injuries to huge hitters. Will Aaron Judge make the Yankee roster? Willson Contreras returned to the Red Sox lineup Sunday after missing eight games, but he’s got a bruised right hand that could hinder his thump.

Runs could be at a premium, because both teams have sharp pitching staffs. The Yanks (93-68) had the best starter ERA in baseball and the Red Sox (87-75) recorded the best bullpen ERA.

It may all come down to who melts in the October cauldron. Or who soars.

Each team has won three of the previous postseason meetings, so perhaps we can consider this a "Game 7" scenario? And nothing interesting ever happens in a Game 7, right? 

It’s so on. 

WHAT THE YANKEES HAVE GOING FOR THEM

Judge usually leads this department, but he’s iffy with a calf injury. He’s pledged to be on the roster, but even if he is, can he be impactful? 

With that swirling, the Yanks’ strength is clearly their starting rotation, led by Game 1 starter Cam Schlittler, the Massachusetts kid who shreds the Sox. You can expect the Twit-wits of New England to seethe at him on social media, but Schlittler seems built to handle online smoke. 

And he can certainly handle the mound. Schlittler, who will win the AL Cy Young Award after an amazing regular season, allowed one run or fewer in 21 of his 33 starts and became the fourth Yankee starter to finish a season with a sub-2.00 ERA (1.95). Over his last nine starts, he pitched to a 1.17 ERA.

Schlittler had a 0.74 ERA against Boston in four starts this season, and you might remember a certain October outing last year in which he was overpowering for eight shutout innings as the Yanks dispatched the Sox in a winner-take-all Game 3. 

The Yanks weighed whether Schlittler should start the first or second game — overthink much, Yankee braintrust? — before making the obvious choice. They’re loaded in Game 2, too, when Max Fried (2.80 ERA in 20 starts) goes. 

If Game 3 is necessary, Gerrit Cole will start. Cole has had some blips this season. But he’s been good his last two starts. Plus, it’s Gerrit Cole. 

The rotation is backed by a bullpen that had a strong regular season as Paul Blackburn (1.69 ERA) and Brent Headrick (2.18) emerged behind closer David Bednar. Will Warren will move from the rotation to the bullpen and could provide key length. Going into Game 1, the Yanks will have had three consecutive days off, thanks to last weekend’s Nor’easter, and the rest might mitigate some of the relief workload concerns that have bloomed late. 

With Judge only playing 66 games, Ben Rice (41 homers, .897 OPS) was the key cog in an offense that was eighth in runs per game (4.59). 

WHAT THE RED SOX HAVE GOING FOR THEM

Boston has both the best bullpen in baseball by ERA (3.00) and enough quality starters — Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez — to make things very difficult for the Yankees. 

The Yankees never seemed to know what to do with Gray when he was a Yankee from 2017-18, but he’s been terrific everywhere else and tied for the MLB lead with 18 wins this year and had a 2.72 ERA. The mustachioed Tolle, a lefty who pitches with a nifty joie de vivre, allowed one run and four hits over 13 innings in two starts against the Yanks. Suarez, another lefty, had a 3.22 ERA during the regular season, but the Yankees bashed him (6.06 ERA in three outings).

Without Judge, the Yanks’ lineup tilts too left-handed, which theoretically should make them vulnerable to lefty starters. But they were 35-20 in games started by a left-hander. 

The Boston rotation usually features Garrett Crochet, who put the Yankees on the brink of a quick exit last October with a masterful Game 1 performance. But after an injury-plagued year, he won’t start in this series. Problem is, he could be part of the Sox bullpen arsenal, which is already lethal. 

Ageless closer Aroldis Chapman (remember him?) is still dishing heat and hard looks. He had 35 saves, a 1.92 ERA and a 12.4 K/9. Garrett Whitlock, whom the Sox plucked from the Yankees in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, has a 1.72 ERA. The Red Sox bullpen gave up the fewest home runs of any relief corps in the majors this year.

THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…

Their rotation continues to thrive and their power plays. The Yankees hit 223 home runs during the regular season, second in MLB to only the Houston Astros, despite missing Judge for so long. Home runs can dwindle in October, but they can also wreck a series, and if Rice slugs, watch out. If he doesn’t, there were 10 other Yankees who hit double-digit home runs this season and that doesn’t include Luis García Jr., who hit seven of his 30 with the Yanks after a deadline trade from Washington. 

Could Giancarlo Stanton finally return from injury and hit a big October laser? He’s done it before. 

Of course, as any Yankee fan will tell you, the pinstriped offense sometimes sputters if the ball isn’t soaring out of the park. But they’re capable of the speed game, too, after finishing sixth in stolen bases. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. had 41 steals and José Caballero added 34, so perhaps they can manufacture runs if their lightning sags.

THE RED SOX WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…

Yanks-Sox is fertile ground for a mega breakout (see Schlittler, Cam, from last October) and one of the most talented players on either team is Roman Anthony, the 22-year-old Red Sox outfielder. He’s had an injury-marred season but this might be his chance. Anthony had a 1.008 OPS over his final eight games. What if he goes bonkers at the Stadium? 

As noted, the Red Sox can really pitch. And they play strong defense, too — they were sixth-best in Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run Value. Can they score enough, though, especially if their best hitter, Contreras (.901 OPS) is compromised? Will Anthony help provide the answer? 

PREDICTION

Yankees in three. 

This is rivalry business, so there’s little chance of a sweep. Each team will face the brink, but the Yankees will shove the Red Sox over it by, well, shoving. Pitching, we mean.

The Red Sox averaged the second-fewest runs (4.25) of any playoff team and they’ll have a hard time plating enough against the Yanks.

The Yankees are comfortable at the Stadium, where they were 46-34 this season and 4-2 against the Red Sox, including winning three of four in late August.

Is that real intel or real insignificant? We’ll see, but it’s compelling that the Yankees blew out the Sox twice in that series and also won a 1-0 game that was started by, you guessed it — Schlittler.

The Cincinnati Reds just wrapped up the 21st regular season since the above note was penned by the then-new ownership group. It was a five-point plan built on the back of nebulous subjectivity aside from the one concrete declaration emboldened at the top – We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati.

After 21 seasons, there are only two ways with which you can grade that singular, objective declaration. The ownership group, spearheaded by the Castellini family, is either officially lying, or officially a failure.

By no definition of championship baseball have they approached achieving said goal. Even if you squint, reduce the assertion to the divisional level, and parse through the annals of baseball history, you need to go back fourteen seasons to even find the Reds atop their own. There have been no World Series appearances, let alone titles. There have been no National League Championship Series claimed, and zero appearances there. They have not won a playoff series since back in 1995, which also coincides with the last time the team actually won a home playoff game in their own park.

Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in Cincinnati in 31 years. Frank Viola turned 66 years old this year, and that 66 year old man played on the team that last won a playoff game in Cincinnati – in a stadium that was reduced to rubble 25 years ago.

This is not rekindling the Reds Nation spirit. This is the literal definition of resting while we are unhappy.

They have built one of the least respected organizations in baseball.

Sell the team, Bob and Phil.

Astros fans, after 162 games, your team is once again the champion of the American League West.

So how are you feeling? Excited? Relieved? Optimistic? Still concerned? Or are you simply hopeful that this team has another October run left in it?

Whatever your answer, here’s what matters most:

They’re in.

And once you’re in, you have a chance.

It certainly wasn’t pretty. This Astros team clawed, scratched, fought and struggled its way to the finish line. There were times when they looked exhausted. There were times when the pitching staff appeared to be running on fumes. There were stretches when the offense couldn’t find consistency and moments when it looked like all the energy required to dig out of another early-season hole had finally caught up with them.

But when they absolutely had to get it done, they did.

The Houston Astros are American League West champions.

Now the question changes. Can they get hot? Can they go on another October run? Can they somehow add another chapter to this incredible Golden Era of Astros baseball?

I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.

Get In and See What Happens

The Astros aren’t entering the postseason as some flawless juggernaut. Far from it.

We’ve spent an entire season talking about their shortcomings. The roster construction. The revolving door in the outfield. The injuries. The inconsistent starting pitching. A bullpen that carried an enormous workload and at times looked completely out of gas.

None of those concerns suddenly disappear because Houston won the division, but neither does everything this team accomplished.

They were knocked down repeatedly and kept getting back up. They dug themselves another enormous hole and somehow climbed out of it. They reached the finish line battered and bruised, but they reached it as division champions.

There’s something to be said for that, and now none of the struggles that came before matter.

It’s October.

You Have the MVP

Here’s a pretty good place to start if you’re searching for reasons to believe:

The Astros have the American League Most Valuable Player. Yordan Alvarez has been the centerpiece of this offense all season, and now he gets the opportunity to do it on baseball’s biggest stage.

In October, one superstar can change a series. One swing can change a game. One hot hitter can carry an entire lineup for a week. The Astros have that guy.

The rest of the offense doesn’t need to suddenly become the greatest lineup in baseball. It just needs to continue doing enough around Yordan to score runs and give this team an opportunity to win.

That’s what they’ve done for much of the season. Now they need to do it when the games matter most.

It All Comes Down to Pitching

For all the discussion about the offense, I believe Houston’s postseason fate ultimately comes down to one thing: Pitching.

Which starting pitchers can Joe Espada trust? Who can give him five, six or seven quality innings? Who has the ability to take the baseball in a postseason game and dominate? Perhaps most importantly, which bullpen arms still have enough left in the tank?

The last question is the one that concerns me most.

The Astros asked an enormous amount from their bullpen this season. Those relievers were forced to cover innings when starters couldn’t get deep into games, and they helped keep this season alive while Houston fought its way back into contention. Now they’re being asked for more.

Postseason baseball magnifies the importance of every bullpen decision. Managers are quicker to pull starters. Matchups become more important. High-leverage relievers can be asked to pitch on consecutive days, and sometimes the difference between advancing and going home comes down to which bullpen can record the final nine outs.

Houston doesn’t need every reliever to suddenly become dominant, but it needs enough of them.

Give This Team Its Credit

I’ve been critical of this team throughout the season. I’ve questioned the roster. I’ve questioned the front office. I’ve questioned whether the bullpen could survive its workload and whether the Astros had enough left in the tank to finish the job. Those questions were fair.

But so is giving this team credit now. I’m proud of the fight they’ve shown. I’m proud of the veteran leadership that helped get them here. I’m proud of the way this group refused to allow its season to disappear when it easily could have.

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez and the other veterans in that clubhouse know what October baseball feels like. They know what it takes to win when every pitch matters. That experience means something now.

Joe Espada deserves credit, too.

He took an imperfect roster, navigated injuries, survived an inconsistent rotation and an overworked bullpen, and somehow got this team across the finish line as division champions.

That’s an accomplishment.

Why Not the Astros?

Do I think this is the best Astros team we’ve seen during this Golden Era? No. Do I think they’re entering October without legitimate concerns? Absolutely not.

But that’s not the question anymore. The question is whether they’re good enough to win a postseason series. Then another. And maybe another.

There’s a part of me that looks at the experience in this clubhouse, the presence of the American League MVP and everything this team survived just to get here and believes they have enough to at least make another run at the American League Championship Series.

After that? Who knows?

That’s the beauty of postseason baseball.

You don’t have to dominate for six months anymore. You have to be better than the team in the other dugout for a few days. The Astros survived 162 games. They won the American League West. They gave themselves a chance.

Now let’s find out if there’s one more October run left in this Golden Era of Houston Astros baseball.

Astros fans, how are you feeling?

Are you simply happy they survived and got in? Do you believe this team can make a run to the ALCS, or do you think they have enough left to go even further?

October is here.

Why not the Astros?