DETROIT, MI - MAY 17: Gage Workman #99 of the Detroit Tigers looks on during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park on May 17, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. The Blue Jays defeated the Tigers 4-1. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Happy Wednesday, everyone. While there might not be much to celebrate if you’re looking at the Tigers’ place in the standings, we have a little good news to temper the bad in today’s links. For starters, Tarik Skubal is already throwing bullpens, which has to give anyone a glimmer of hope. Plus, the Tigers have played community heroes by visiting a few charities to show support. I’m leading with the good, because Sports Illustrated also wrote an entire article highlighting how the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball, and while we want to be defensive, they raise some valid points.
We also take a look at news around baseball, including the return of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, and a look at one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball. All that and more in today’s post, so let’s get right into it.
Colt Kieth is having a strong year fueled by a .293 batting average. Yet he hasn’t homered the entire year and has six RBIs in 43 games. Spencer Torkelson, already sent down to the minors once in his career, is carrying a .191 average with 61 strikeouts. Meadows, though injured, hasn’t matured into the player the organization thought he could be and Carpenter has taken a step back from solid production last season.
“Coming to something like this, it transcends baseball.”⁰⁰Former high school teammates Matt Vierling and Jake Burger spent a morning at Gigi's Playhouse Detroit during the Tigers-Rangers series. pic.twitter.com/dfAJ0LM5hW
— Tigers Community (@TigersCommunity) May 18, 2026
"It's incredible to see their resilience and their attitude toward it. Trying to help impact their day in a positive way is special for me."
The Tigers visited survivors at the Children's Hospital of Michigan to meet some of the strongest fans in the game. pic.twitter.com/Jvg9Wv9tsY
CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 21: Gage Wood #41 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on Saturday, March 21, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Phillies have gauged Gage’s progress, and they have found much to be impressed with. The young hurler, less than a year removed from his selection in the first round of the draft, has been sent straight from Low-A Clearwater to Double A Reading. That’s a ringing endorsement from the organization. He had been talked about as a potential fast-mover when he was drafted, and the promotion seems to bear that out. He’s two promotions away from joining the Show, and those promotions could come fast.
Today’s question is: WillGage Wood play for the Phillies this season?
Cheering for a lousy baseball team can be a real drag. As the season progresses, the margin for error shrinks. Outcomes become more crucial as the trade deadline creeps into the picture. It’s an unpleasant scenario where wins provide relief instead of joy. Each defeat hurts more and more as the season evolves into death by 1,000 cuts.
Is that a little dramatic? Maybe. But that’s how it felt last season when the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde after a 15-28 start. The team sunk its season by the end of May, and fans were left with a long wait for another chance to compete in 2026.
The Orioles have yet to completely squander another season, but things don’t look great. The heightened frustration comes with a panic that the winning window could be closing before Baltimore achieves any success in the postseason. The Rays and Yankees appear destined for a competitive division race, and the Blue Jays—not the Orioles—feel like the struggling team that could eventually make a run.
It’s times like these when searching for the positives feels like grasping at straws. The Orioles need some real changes if they’re going to recover from a disappointing start. What exactly could those changes be?
Jackson Holliday made his first start of the season last night. Camden Chat’s John Beers asked yesterday if Jackson Holliday can make this team better. While Holliday probably won’t make a drastic immediate impact, he represents the sole infield reinforcement with Jordan Westburg officially out for the season.
Holliday is a former number one overall draft choice with plenty of untapped potential. The 22-year-old will likely need to shake off a little rust, and the hamate procedure could rob the young infielder of his power for an extended period. Still, Holliday could breakout as a talented table setter if he manages to find the outfield grass more than Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander.
Any significant change in fortune would require significant improvement from the starting rotation. Trevor Rogers has been getting absolutely shelled to the point that many are wondering if he’s tipping his pitches. Rogers inability to put away hitters, especially after his level of dominance last season, doesn’t compute.
Rogers will be a free agent at the end of the season. Last year, he looked like a player that the Orioles could not afford to let walk. He’s been a below replacement level player in 2026.
Speaking of replacements, the rotation has needed a few. Injuries to Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have already carved out a spot for Brandon Young. Young and Povich were the guys penciled in as pitching depth this season. Povich recently received a cortisone injection, and the Orioles have yet to provide a timetable for a return. The lack of additional depth has shifted more youngsters into the picture.
Trey Gibson already made his major league debut. Gibson, Baltimore’s second best pitching prospect according to MLB Pipeline, already has two short big league stints under his belt. The 24-year-old is not currently on the 26-man roster, but he’ll be back at some point with a chance to make an impact. Unfortunately, even replacement-level pitching from Gibson or another Norfolk starter would represent an improvement of Rogers or Chris Bassitt.
There are other Norfolk starters by the way. Nestor German and Levi Wells both rank in the team’s Top 15 prospects. German and Wells look slightly less polished than Gibson, but the trio represent the latest wave of starting pitching hope with guys like Luis De León, Joseph Dzierwa, and Juaron Watts Brown still another click away.
I always find myself looking to these pitching groups when searching for optimism. Dreaming on pitching prospects is a right of passage for struggling teams. It’s more difficult when the team does not prioritize pitching in the draft, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Prospects like Gibson, German and Wells could make a positive impact at some point, but they can’t save the Orioles season. Vintage Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander aren’t walking through that door either. If this team wants to win, the guys already here need to play better. Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have to perform like stars. Rogers and Shane Baz need to pitch to their “Cy Young potential.” Coby Mayo and Colton Cowser have to find a way to hit above the Mendoza line. It really seems to be that simple.
The Orioles are 21-28 with a -57 run differential. I refuse to completely throw in the towel before Memorial Day for the second consecutive year, but the search for optimism continues to be a struggle.
DENVER, CO - MAY 03: Jonah Heim #20 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates while rounding the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the second inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Sunday, May 3, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ray Bahner/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
I’ve created a bit of a dilemma for myself. (Not Jonah Heim related.)
I’m at least reasonably committed to doing the Big Board… but all the questions that I’ve come up with, and that people submitted responses and confidence ratings to, are all scored at the end of the year — except the Braves’ manager one, which is the only one to assign points so far. I’ve wanted to do in-season questions that are resolved and scored sooner, but the 2026 Braves season, as great as it has been, hasn’t lent itself to that for whatever reason. With the Braves dominating, there just hasn’t been much worthwhile, meaty debate on stuff that should or could happen. (I also have a separate dilemma about the best way to score certain things, but… that will be its own series of posts as we get closer to the end of the season and the need for scoring things.)
With that said, I do think Drake Baldwin’s injury and the Braves’ current catching situation lends itself to an in-season question… but, unfortunately, it’s another one that can really only be resolved at the end of the year. Anyway, here goes…
As the Braves waited for Sean Murphy to recover from hip surgery, they signed Jonah Heim to a low-cost ($1.25 million) MLB deal. Heim was an elite defensive catcher from 2021-2023, and the Rangers’ title run coincided with him starting to hit a bit, too, garnering a 4 fWAR season in the process. However, his career fell apart afterwards. Maybe it was the wrist injury he suffered in 2023. Maybe it was something else less overt. But, he went back to not hitting, and more damningly, he went from a cream-of-the-crop defensive catcher to a below-average one. Despite playing for 400+ PAs in both 2024 and 2025, he clocked in below replacement, tallying a combined -0.6 fWAR in the process. His time with the Braves before he was traded was similar despite the small sample of 45 PAs: a .275ish xwOBA, and well below average defensive play. The only reason Heim ended up at +0.1 fWAR in that sample was because he massively outhit his xwOBA in those 45 PAs.
So, that’s Jonah Heim. But, with both Murphy and Baldwin down, the Braves’ other options are… also bad.
Sandy Leon is a 37-year-old veteran of 14 major league seasons who is about as replacement-level as they come. He has a .250ish career xwOBA, and was consistently below replacement from 2019-2025 because he simply can’t hit enough despite the decent defense he sometimes provides. He has a career 0.3 fWAR in 1,752 PAs. He also hasn’t actually provided useful defensive value since 2019, either. It’s not clear why the Braves really wanted Leon rather than some other option, enough to fish him out of the Mexican League when Murphy got hurt again, but here we are.
Chadwick Tromp is 31 years old and is largely a Quad-A catcher. His career xwOBA is even worse than Leon’s (in the .230s). He’s generally gotten positive defensive marks when he’s played enough to accrue them, but he only has 179 career PAs at the big league level. His 0.4 fWAR in that span kinda suggests that he might actually be a serviceable MLB backup catcher, but the problem is that he has a .264 wOBA / .234 xwOBA over those 179 PAs, and if he had a .234 wOBA instead, that positive value probably evaporates. Tromp hasn’t even hit in the minors since 2024. The upside is unclear, if it exists.
The Braves could go outside the organization for temporary help. Unfortunately, there don’t seem to be a lot of options. Guys like Austin Wynns have been on the waiver wire recently, but they’re basically Leon-esque, no hit, some field, veteran options. Heim hasn’t been good in a while but was at least useful once; many of these waiver wire options have rarely gotten MLB exposure and haven’t done much when they have, even if they’ve been around the game for a decade or more.
So, here’s my question to you:
There are two “buckets” of production, for which we’ll use fWAR.
Bucket One is Jonah Heim, since the Braves traded him. (Irrespective of whether he goes anywhere else.) Right now, he has -0.2 fWAR in 20 PAs, which is a bizarrely hilarious -6 fWAR/600 PAs. This bucket consists of that -0.2, plus whatever else Heim does for the rest of the season.
Bucket Two is every non-Baldwin, non-Murphy player the Braves use at catcher this year. This includes Leon, Tromp, and anyone else they use as a stopgap. Leon is currently at -0.1 fWAR (-5.5 fWAR/600, in all of 11 PAs). Tromp had a single in his only PA yesterday, so he’s at 0.1 fWAR in 1 PA. (I’m not pro-rating that, el-oh-el.) This bucket consists of everything Leon, Tromp, and any other guys the Braves acquire to catch do for the team over the course of the season.
Your choices are as follows:
In the below, production means “taking Heim’s rate basis production and applying it over the set of PAs accrued by non-Baldwin, non-Murphy Braves catchers for the rest of the year.” Yes, this is subject to insane variation depending on how much Heim plays. But, there isn’t a better way to do this, I don’t think, because with Heim barely playing for the Athletics, while the Braves are forced to use multiple catchers due to injury, doing a straight-up fWAR basis wouldn’t work.
A: Bucket One (Heim) outproduces Bucket Two (Leon, Tromp, anyone else) by at least 1.0 fWAR. In other words, this is a meaningful difference.
B: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two, but only by 0.5 to 0.9 fWAR. In other words, yeah, better production, but not really enough to swing anything.
C: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two by less than 0.5 fWAR, which includes Bucket Two producing more than Bucket One.
Note that due to the quality of player we’re talking about here, “outproduce” can definitely mean less negative.
As usual with these, please assign a confidence score, where 5 is “I am absolutely certain this will occur” and 1 is “I have no idea but feel like participating in this anyway.” So, an answer would be something like A1 (you think it’d be funny if Heim was more productive but you aren’t staking much on it) or C5 (you are certain that the Braves won’t regret shipping Heim off). I kind of imagine that based on the types of people that have participated in these Big Board-soliciting questions, this will be heavily C3 through C5 rather than any As or Bs, but if you truly believe in Heim, here’s your chance to get some Big Board points and gloat later.
Just remember this old adage when thinking about the Cubs’ 5-2 loss to the Brewers and the current four-game losing streak: No team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. (Conversely, no team is as good as it looks when on a winning streak, and that includes this year’s Cubs.)
So exactly what sort of team is this Cubs team? A team that needs better starting pitching, for one. A team that needs a couple of key hitters to start hitting like they’re capable of. And a team that needs shutdown relief.
All of those things were in evidence Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field.
Everyone knew this was not going to be an easy game with Jacob Misiorowski throwing for Milwaukee. His numbers coming in were ridiculous: Of 202 batters faced before Tuesday, he’d struck out 80 of them — a 39.6 percent strikeout rate. And the Cubs couldn’t do anything with him for the first five innings, even while the first two Cubs hitters of the game reached base. Nico Hoerner walked and Michael Busch reached on an error. All that led to was an 0-for-3 with RISP — just for that inning alone. But the Cubs did make Misiorowski throw 26 pitches in the first inning, and that’s not a bad game plan against the Brewers fireballer — see if you can run up his pitch count and get him out of the game early.
It didn’t work, because over the next four innings, Misiorowski dispatched the Cubs on just 40 total pitches. They managed a single by Seiya Suzuki in the fourth and another single by Dansby Swanson in the fifth. Swanson was erased on a double play.
Meanwhile, Ben Brown didn’t have a terrible start. It wasn’t quite as good as his first two. He allowed seven hits and three runs in five innings, striking out six. The key to both the innings in which the Brewers scored, the first and third, were walks. A one-out walk in the first turned into a manufactured run for Milwaukee. A two-out walk in the third led to another such run, and the other run off Brown was on a wild pitch.
Basically, Brown had to be as good as Misiorowski to give the Cubs a chance, and he wasn’t. That’s not a knock on Brown, who looked decent enough. It’s just that the Cubs couldn’t do anything against Misiorowski. Hoerner, in the first inning, was the only Cubs runner past first base through six.
Jacob Webb threw a scoreless sixth and Caleb Thielbar, just returned from an IL stint, threw a scoreless seventh. So that’s good; perhaps the pen is stabilizing a bit.
Or, maybe it was before Trent Thornton threw the eighth. He allowed a one-out walk and after recording the second out, served up a home-run ball to Brice Turang.
At 5-0 entering the bottom of the eighth, this one appeared hopeless, but the Cubs did put together a rally. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a single and took third when Miguel Amaya doubled into the ivy in left-center.
So the bases are still loaded and the tying run is on base. Moisés Ballesteros, back in the lineup at DH, is the scheduled hitter against lefty Aaron Ashby. Craig Counsell sent Matt Shaw up to bat for Ballesteros, knowing that Pat Murphy would counter with a right-hander, which he did, calling Chad Patrick into the game.
Michael Conforto was sent up to bat for Shaw, which is obviously the matchup Counsell wanted. And Conforto, as you know, has had a flair for the dramatic lately.
Not this time, unfortunately. Conforto hit into a force play to end the inning.
Phil Maton entered the game to throw the ninth and that created visions of this 5-2 game becoming a 7-2 game or worse, given Maton’s recent failures. But Maton retired the Brewers 1-2-3. That provides at least a bit of hope that Maton can become a useful part of the Cubs bullpen.
The Cubs went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth to end it. Swanson thought he had led off with a walk, but Brewers catcher William Contreras challenged the pitch and it wound up strike three [VIDEO].
With the loss and the Cardinals defeating the Pirates, the Cubs drop to third in the NL Central, virtually tied with St. Louis but a few percentage points behind. Both teams are half a game behind the Brewers.
So again… no team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. They just ran into a really good pitcher in this one (Bluesky link):
The Cubs are better than this, and they will win again. Many times. Hopefully, starting tonight at Wrigley Field when they attempt to avoid a sweep. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Kyle Harrison goes for the Brewers. Game time is again 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.
On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Water finds its level. Everything regresses to the mean. Insert your euphemism here. One of the things we notice with numbers is that over time they usually approach what we would have expected. Unfortunately for the Astros catchers, they are left with Christian Vazquez getting regular starts with Yainer Diaz out.
On Monday, we looked at the league average BPO and discovered that is currently sits at .663. Please feel free to go back and read that piece for a primer on bases per out. What we did there is look at the league average BPO, so that we can calculate and BPO+. Since we are introducing a new stat, I will also include OPS+ just to compare the two.
Obviously, that includes a ballpark adjustment for the three catchers as well. The Astros wound up with a 101 overall park factor so far on the season, so we multiply each player’s BPO by .995 (since half of their games are on the road) to get their BPO+. Obviously, some positions will naturally have more production than others. Let’s get this thing started.
Catcher BPO
TB
BB
SB
HBP
Outs
BPO
BPO+
Yainer Diaz
35
3
0
0
83
.458
69
Christian Vazquez
33
7
0
0
65
.615
92
Cesar Salazar
1
2
0
0
10
.300
45
Combined
69
12
0
0
158
.513
77
One of the things we do to measure the efficacy of numbers is to compare them with other numbers we know have value. Yainer Diaz has a 69 OPS+, Vazquez has a 98 OPS+, and Salazar has a -5 OPS+. It is important to note how OPS and BPO are different. OPS is a nice, quick reference for offensive production (it explains approximately 90 percent of the variance in run production), but it has some significant holes.
The primary hole is a math problem that is difficult to get around. A player like Ty Cobb will have a .360 batting average. That means he will have at least a .360 OBP and a slugging percentage of at least .360. That’s a .720 OPS before we have even accounted for anything outside of batting average. Granted, there are no Ty Cobb’s running around, but there is Luis Arreaz of the Giants.
He has a 132 OPS+ due in large part to a .328 average through May 17th. His .807 OPS is not that impressive when you consider that .656 of it is tied up in batting average. His BPO+ is actually 113. I would still rather have him on my team than not, but one is reminiscent of an all-star and the other is reminiscent of a solid regular. That is because one counts batting average twice and the other does it once.
Vazquez’s numbers in April were unsustainable. Every predictive stat told us that. Part of that is that the power numbers just didn’t match the quality of the contact. The other part is that he is a 35 year old catcher that is suddenly playing five games a week. Even those of us that were souring on Diaz ideally wanted a work share between them.
Critics would correctly point out that you can’t have an all-star at every position and these numbers do not account for the defensive contributions of the player. This is where I would point to another feature I write over Battle Red Blog called “The Value of Things.” The concept is the same as the lab. Every player has an appropriate value and when players get their appropriate value then teams are usually able to afford more reinforcements.
Thankfully, Dana Brown did not extend Yainer Diaz like we would have liked to have seen him do after 2023 and 2024. I’d imagine that he will not end up at a 69 BPO+ when the season ends. His OPS+ last season was a 93 and that seems like a reasonable target for him. His OPS+ has dropped every year from 2023 on and it might very well drop to 85 or 90 this season.
From 1980 to 1988, the Astros kept throwing Alan Ashby out as their primary catcher. Each year they kept telling themselves he would only be the guy until they found someone better. In ten seasons (counting 1979) as the primary catcher, Ashby sported a 101 OPS. Diaz will end up being very similar and when you consider the defensive issues, the Astros will continue on with Diaz much the same way they continued on with Ashby all of those years.
Diaz will only be the guy as long as he is affordable and there is no one else better. Once one of those two things ceases to be the case, he will no longer be the regular catcher. With Walker Janek getting off to a rough start in Corpus Christi, there might not be any reinforcements any time soon. Vazquez and Salazar are here as long as they are cheap. That leaves the expansive world outside of Houston to shop for an improvement.
The last consideration will be the collective bargaining agreement. There will almost certainly be changes to the service time issue and that could also come with changes to arbitration and free agency. Diaz currently makes 4.5 million in arbitration. No one gets a pay cut in arbitration. So, Diaz could end up being a non-tender candidate if things don’t improve drastically. Otherwise you are looking at likely six or seven million for a below average catcher. Based on what you see, what are your recommendations?
The Arizona Diamondbacks look to complete the sweep this afternoon against the San Francisco Giants, with first pitch scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.
My Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions are targeting Arizona to get the job done in the series finale, with the improving Merrill Kelly taking the hill.
Who will win Giants vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-127)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have looked solid in this series, winning the opener 12-2 before a 5-3 victory on Tuesday evening. The D-Backs own a 14-9 record at home, and they've gone 5-1 across the last six meetings with the San Francisco Giants.
Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the hosts, and while his 5.91 ERA is concerning, he's been better lately. The right-hander has only allowed two earned runs across his previous two starts, and Kelly even threw a complete-game shutout last week against the Colorado Rockies.
On the other side, Tyler Mahle owns a 1-5 record and 5.59 ERA, and he's given up nine earned runs across his last two outings. Also, Mahle has an alarming 8.38 ERA on the road.
COVERS INTEL: Mahle isn't fooling anyone, with chase and whiff rates that rank in the 25th and 26th percentiles, respectively.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
I don't expect either starter to be completely lights out, but I also don't see the rubber match being high-scoring. Five of their last seven meetings have cashed the Under, and we saw only eight runs scored on Tuesday.
You'll see another Arizona-heavy offensive performance here, similar to the rest of this series. Both bullpens, which have pitched well lately, will hold it down after the starters exit.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 12-11 +2.26 units
Over/Under bets: 14-9, +3.16 units
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Giants +113 | Diamondbacks -136
Run line: Giants +1.5 (-186) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+153)
Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Giants vs Diamondbacks trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Giants vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Wednesday, May 20, 2026
First pitch
3:40 p.m. ET
TV
NBC Sports Bay Area, Diamondbacks.TV
Giants starting pitcher
Tyler Mahle (1-5, 5.59 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Merrill Kelly (3-3, 5.91 ERA)
Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Giants vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Montreal Canadiens head south to face the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final at the Lenovo Center on Thursday, May 21.
My top Canadiens vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks expect Montreal starter Jakub Dubes to face all kinds of rubber from Carolina in the series opener.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes Game 1 prediction
Canadiens vs Hurricanes best bet: Jakub Dobes Over 28.5 saves (-105)
Montreal Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes sports a solid .910 save percentage with 12.17 goals saved above expected across his 14 postseason starts, and he’s about to be busier than ever in Game 1.
The Carolina Hurricanes have recorded a playoff-high 30.9 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five while ranking second in Corsi For percentage, and they also finished the regular season with the second-most shots per game (32.2) and highest CF% at 5-on-5.
So, with Montreal finishing 23rd in CF% at 5-on-5 during the regular season and now sitting 13th in the metric among the 16 postseason teams, Dobes is set to face more than enough rubber to record 29 or more saves in the series opener.
Montreal linemates Ivan Demidov and Alex Newhook tilted the ice in their favor in Round 2 with a 58.2% shot rate at 5-on-5 while combining for 37 shots. Additionally, Demidov recorded two or more in four of seven games, and Newhook had at least two shots six times.
The Carolina Hurricanes have won 20 of their last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Hurricanes.
How to watch Canadiens vs Hurricanes Game 1
Location
Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Date
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Puck drop
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
TNT, Sportsnet
Canadiens vs Hurricanes latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
DENVER, CO - May 19: Texas Rangers designated hitter Joc Pederson (3) asks the dugout for a replay after getting tagged out attempting to stretch a single in the third inning during a game between the Texas Rangers and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on May 19, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Rangers 10, Rockies 0
The Rangers, they are on a run-scoring bonanza.
They Rangers have now scored at least 6 runs in their last three games, and in 5 of their last 7 games.
However, the offense has to wait, because the story of the game has to be Kumar Rocker, right?
Coming into this game, Rocker had allowed 18 runs on the season. 10 of those scored in the first inning. The Rangers decided, well, what if we don’t use Kumar Rocker in the first inning?
So the Opener, which was in vogue in the late-teens, but whose use seems to have waned around MLB of late, got dusted off by Skip Schumaker and put on display Tuesday evening.
Tyler Alexander was the official starter and faced four batters in a scoreless first, setting up Kumar Rocker to come into the game in the second inning and face the #5 batters in the Rockies’ lineup.
Rocker did not get off to the greatest of starts in the second. Ezequiel Tovar smoked a line drive that was tracked down in deep left center, and then Troy Johnston and Tyler (Brother of Cody) Freeman each singled. Second inning Rocker looked a lot like first inning Rocker.
Rocker then struck out Jake McCarthy swinging and Edouard Julien on a 4-3 ground out to end the inning, and end the best scoring chance the Rockies had all game. Colorado didn’t get another batter past first base.
Rocker faced 28 batters in the game. Of the final 25 batters, he gave up a hit to one of them, walked three, and retired the other 21.
It was, without question, the best outing of Rocker’s career, and an outing that reminded us why we were so hyped about Kumar Rocker heading into the 2025 season.
Out of 103 pitches, Rocker threw his slider 44 times, generating 21 swings and 12 whiffs. Rocker had 19 swings and misses overall, easily the most he’s had in a game this season.
The theory behind using an opener is that most starting pitchers are going to end up going through a lineup roughly two-and-a-half times. Using a starter in a traditional role, the top of the lineup — the opponent’s best hitters — will be the ones that a starter will have to face three times. With an opener, your starter gets the third time through the order penalty against the weaker hitters in the lineup, rather than the top of the lineup.
In Rocker’s case, the third time through the order penalty wasn’t an issue — he faced 28 batters in the game. But coming into the game in the second inning, he was able to work out whatever kinks he was dealing with against the bottom of the order, rather than the top of the order.
For the season, Rocker has an 11.25 ERA in the first inning, and a 1.95 ERA from the second inning on.
I am willing to bet the Rangers go with an opener the next time Rocker is scheduled to pitch.
The Rockies also went with an opener, but it didn’t go so well for them. When Sammy Peralta, who started for Colorado, left the game, the bases were loaded with two outs in the first and a pair of runs in.
Things didn’t go a whole lot better for Tanner Gordon, who was the pseudo-starter/bulk guy for the Rockies. He got a groundout to get out of the first and leave the bases loaded — and there was grumbling about the Rangers getting only two runs in, and how this would cost them later in the game, especially with Rocker pitching — but he ultimately gave up 7 runs in 6.1 innings of work.
Weird thing — in those 6.1 innings, Gordon faced 31 batters, but he only used 81 pitches. The Rangers weren’t up there working the count and wearing him down. Gordon was throwing strikes — he walked just one of those 31 batters — and the Rangers were hammering them.
Texas had 16 hits in all, plus 6 walks and a hit batter, so maybe they should have scored more than 10 runs. They were 8 for 17 with runners in scoring position, though, so can’t complain there.
Brandon Nimmo, who has been slumping lately, had a big game, going 3 for 4 with his first home run since April 17, earning a much deserved inning-plus off, with Sam Haggerty taking his place in the field in the eighth.
In the 25 games since that home run in April, Nimmo had been slashing .219/.296/.281. Tuesday’s game raised his season OPS by 36 points, to 775 on the year.
Ezequiel Duran had three more hits, including a pair of doubles. He’s now slashing .298/.358/.476 in one of the more (pleasantly) surprising developments of 2026.
In fact, every starter got a hit in the game, except Alejandro Osuna, who was 0 for 4 with did draw a walk, and Andrew McCutchen, who led off the game with a walk and was pinch hit for in the second.
Joc Pederson, who hit for McCutchen, had four hits, which, per the broadcast, was the most hits in a game in Rangers history for a player who did not start the game.
Speaking of which…it ended up not mattering, due to it being a blowout. However, Skip Schumaker having McCutchen lead off, and then hitting for him with one out in the second, seems questionable to me.
You knew that the Rockies were going to start the game with Peralta, a lefty, as the opener, and then go with the righthanded Tanner Gordon as the bulk guy. That’s why Alejandro Osuna and Evan Carter started, but were batting seventh and ninth, respectively.
So why not start Pederson and hit him towards the bottom of the order as well? Why are you burning one of your four bench guys — and your top righthanded bench bat — for one plate appearance at the beginning of the game, setting yourself to Pederson potentially having to face a lefty in a key situation late in the game?
The counter-argument is that the first batter of any inning is the most important batter of the inning, that you want to get to Peralta and get an early lead for Alexander and Rocker, and so having McCutchen’s one at bat being him leading off the first inning is no different than using a good reliever as an opener. And it worked, as McCutchen drew a walk to start the game and ended up scoring on Duran’s bases loaded double.
But its a decision that I found curious.
Texas remains a game behind the A’s in the West, due to their winning on Tuesday.
However, Texas is now a game up on Seattle, who lost to the ChiSox 2-1 due to allowing a pair of runs in the top of the ninth. That’s gotta sting.
Tyler Alexander hit 92.0 mph with his fastball. Kumar Rocker’s sinker topped out at 94.7 mph, averaging 93.4 mph. Jalen Beeks’ fastball reached 91.8 mph.
Jake Burger had a 109.4 mph ground out. Alejandro Osuna had a 107.7 mph ground out. Brandon Nimmo had a 107.7 mph single and a 104.6 mph home run. Justin Foscue had a 106.9 mph double. Ezequiel Duran had a 106.4 mph single, a 105.4 mph fly out, and a 104.3 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 105.5 mph single and a 100.5 mph ground out. Josh Jung had a 105.4 mph fly out and a 103.0 mph fly out. Danny Jansen had a 101.5 mph double and a 101.2 mph line out.
Now for another win on Wednesday to take the series and head into the off day on a (Rocky Mountain) high note.
The Buffalo Sabres are entering the off-season with multiple pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs). Logan Stanley is among them.
With the Sabres having several left-shot defensemen and Stanley being scratched multiple times during the playoffs, there is a chance that he won't be brought back by Buffalo.
Due to this, let's look at three teams that could target Stanley if he ends up hitting the free-agent market on July 1.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks could be a team to watch when it comes to Stanley this summer. It is no secret that San Jose needs to boost their blueline, and they are entering the off-season with several pending UFA defensemen. Because of this, it would not be surprising if they tried to sign Stanley this off-season. They need more toughness on their blueline.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins should be looking to improve the left side of their defense this off-season. If they signed Stanley, he would have the potential to be a nice addition to both their bottom pairing and penalty kill. Furthermore, at 27 years old, Stanley would be a good fit on a Penguins club that is focused on the future.
Winnipeg Jets
Could the Jets look to reunite with Stanley this off-season? The possibility should not be ruled out. The 6-foot-7 defenseman thrived this season with Winnipeg before being traded to Buffalo, as he posted nine goals and 21 points in 59 games. With this, it would be understandable if the Jets tried to lure their 2016 first-round pick back to Winnipeg if he hits the market.
There are difficult, dubious contract negotiations, and then there are contract negotiations where the hardest part is figuring out how long you want the partnership to last.
For the Philadelphia Flyers and Trevor Zegras, this offseason feels much closer to the latter.
A year ago, the trade that brought Zegras to Philadelphia carried more intrigue than certainty. The talent was obvious, but so was the inconsistency. Around the league, many voices debated whether he was a misunderstood offensive creator trapped in a stagnant environment or a player whose flashy skill set would always outweigh his overall impact. The Flyers believed they could unlock something more complete.
What they ended up discovering was not only a highly productive offensive player, but someone who fit the emotional identity of the organization far better than many expected.
Now, after a season in which Zegras became one of the defining personalities of the Flyers’ resurgence, the organization arrives at a critical but relatively straightforward piece of business: giving him a contract that will solidify his place in Philadelphia in the years to come.
Trevor Zegras on his #Flyers contract extension: “I love playing here, I love the fans, I love our group. I want to be here for a long time, so hopefully that can get worked out over the next couple of months.”
That number might have once felt aggressive to some outside observers who viewed Zegras primarily through the lens of inconsistency or highlight-reel reputation, but the 25-year-old has proven that he is so much more than the injuries and flashiness that defined his early NHL years. When evaluating what he became for the Flyers this season, and what he projects to become entering his prime, it starts to look not only reasonable, but smart.
Because this was not simply a “good statistical season.”
This was the season where Zegras matured into an undeniable foundational piece.
He finished the year as one of the Flyers’ most dynamic offensive drivers, producing in all situations while becoming increasingly trusted in difficult minutes. More importantly, his game evolved far beyond the perception that has followed him since entering the NHL.
The offense is still the headline. It always will be.
Few players in hockey manipulate space the way Zegras does. He changes defensive posture simply by touching the puck. Defenders back off half a stride because they are worried about being embarrassed. Penalty killers hesitate because they know he can thread passes through seams that most players do not even recognize. That hesitation matters at the NHL level. It creates openings that are invisible in the box score but fundamental to offense.
What made Zegras especially valuable to the Flyers, though, was how his creativity complemented the team’s overall structure instead of disrupting it.
Under Rick Tocchet, the Flyers built an identity around pace, layered pressure, and relentless support. Zegras could have been an awkward stylistic fit in theory—a high-risk offensive player on a team obsessed with detail. Instead, he became proof that skill and structure are not mutually exclusive.
His transition play was essential to Philadelphia’s offense all season. The Flyers are not a team loaded with pure one-on-one offensive creators. They generate much of their attack through pressure, retrievals, and layered movement. Zegras gave them something different: controlled entries with possession, east-west playmaking, and the ability to manufacture offense when structure alone was not enough.
That matters enormously in playoff hockey, where systems tighten and teams eventually need players capable of creating something out of nothing. And with the Flyers establishing that playoffs are no longer a lofty, just-out-of-reach goal, that is a key piece of Zegras' value.
Philadelphia Flyers forward Trevor Zegras (46). (Megan DeRuchie-The Hockey News)
Even during stretches where the offense cooled, Zegras remained impactful because of how much defensive attention he demanded. Opponents tracked him differently, and matchups shifted around him. That is star gravity, even when the scoring totals fluctuate.
And importantly for the Flyers, his growth away from the puck was real.
He competed harder along walls. He tracked with more consistency through the neutral zone. He became more engaged physically than he was earlier in his career. Tocchet’s staff pushed him relentlessly on details, a coaching style that Zegras welcomed with open arms.
The Flyers are building a culture that values coachability almost as much as talent. Zegras could have bristled under that environment. Instead, he leaned into it, even asked for it. Tocchet has repeatedly emphasized how much communication exists between coaches and players, and Zegras himself became one of the clearest examples of that relationship working. He sought out video sessions, asked questions, wanted to understand the “why” behind adjustments instead of simply being told what to do.
In Flyers exit interviews, Zegras highlighted how much he worked at becoming a more engaged player to shed the misconceptions of him being an "Instagram hockey player."
"I think that was definitely something that me and Tocc had talked about before the year," he said. "My goal and mindset was just to come in and be coachable wherever they wanted me to play. I did the best of my ability, whether it was the wing or center, whatever it was."
Why the Flyers Should Want Long-Term Security
The salary cap is rising. Young top-six forwards are becoming more expensive every year. Waiting rarely makes elite offensive talent cheaper.
If the Flyers bridge Zegras again—something in the three- or four-year range—they would essentially be betting against their own development process. They would be acknowledging uncertainty about a player who increasingly looks central to everything they are becoming offensively.
A long-term extension now allows them to buy prime years before the market fully explodes.
And make no mistake: if Zegras continues progressing under Tocchet while playing meaningful playoff hockey in Philadelphia, his value is only going up.
There is also the broader organizational picture. The Flyers are no longer simply trying to accumulate young talent for later down the line. They're putting the league on notice now, which also means that they are transitioning into the far more complicated phase of a rebuild: determining which players are pillars and which players are complementary.
Zegras looks like a pillar. Not necessarily because he is arguably the best player on the roster today, but because of the dimensions he adds that are difficult to replicate.
He brings skill, pace, and offensive unpredictability. He is a power play asset, and is growing into a versatile player that can handle the responsibilities of being a winger or a center (a position Danny Briere acknowledged the Flyers still need bodies to fill).
Away from the ice, Zegras also brings personality, marketability, and energy. In the age of social media and for an organization like the Flyers who are building back a great relationship with their fanbase, those qualities are vital.
Philadelphia fell back in love with hockey this season, and Zegras became one of the faces of that emotional reconnection, in part because being a Flyer helped him fall back in love with the game too.
During Flyers exit interviews, he said of the change of scenery from Anaheim to Philadelphia, "It was big for me. Having that excitement about the game was great. Having a passion for winning and success as a team was big, and I think a lost a little bit of that [with Anaheim]. The drive and passion to win, being a really good team—in my opinion, we definitely had a great, successful season."
Fans do not merely appreciate him; they engage with him. Xfinity Mobile Arena is crawling with jerseys emblazoned with 46 on the back on any given game day. Clips of his plays circulate constantly online. National broadcasts gravitate toward him. He is charismatic without feeling manufactured, confident without feeling detached.
Eagles Super Bowl champion Fletcher Cox is in the building! He's repping the #Flyers in a Trevor Zegras jersey. Naturally, Eagles chants follow.
Some stars feel marketed into relevance, but Zegras feels naturally magnetic. For a franchise trying to fully reestablish itself nationally after years of inconsistency, that matters commercially and culturally, and the Flyers know it.
Why the Number Works for Both Sides
An $8 million cap hit positions Zegras appropriately within both his current value and future projection.
It acknowledges that he is not yet a perennial 100-point superstar, but it also recognizes that high-end offensive centers and play-driving forwards entering their prime years simply cost money now.
From Zegras’ perspective, the deal offers life-changing security while still allowing him to cash in significantly before the end of his career. From the Flyers’ perspective, it provides cost certainty through what should be the most productive stretch of his NHL life.
And stylistically, there is reason to believe his game will age well.
Players built entirely around speed can decline abruptly. Players built entirely around finesse can disappear physically in playoff environments. Zegras’ value increasingly comes from processing speed, spatial manipulation, and creativity under pressure. Those traits tend to sustain themselves longer.
Most importantly, though, the Flyers finally look like a place where Zegras can become the best version of himself. That was not always guaranteed.
Some players need structure. Some need freedom. The challenge for organizations is identifying which balance unlocks growth. Philadelphia appears to have found it with Zegras. Tocchet has demanded accountability without suffocating creativity. Veterans like Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, and Travis Sanheim have helped stabilize the room around younger personalities. And Zegras, for perhaps the first time in his NHL career, genuinely looked settled.
Philadelphia Flyers forwards Trevor Zegras (46) and Owen Tippett (74) celebrate the Flyers clinching a playoff spot. (Megan DeRuchie-The Hockey News)
Comfortable players usually become better players, which is why this negotiation should not drag unnecessarily.
The Flyers spent years searching for players capable of changing the emotional temperature of games and seasons. Trevor Zegras became one of those players this year—not without flaws, but undeniably. You do not spend years rebuilding only to hesitate when you finally identify a cornerstone worth building around.
"I would love that," Zegras said of contract talks. "I would love to be here for a long time... I love playing here. I love the fans. I love the group that we have. I hope that that happens over the next couple of months."
Bill Zonnon extended his goal-streak to three games, matching the number of games he has suited up in the AHL to help the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins win the pivotal Game 3 in their best-of-five series against Springfield last night. Here was the Pens’ lineup
— x – Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (@WBSPenguins) May 19, 2026
Rutger McGroarty opened the scoring, notching his second goal of the playoffs in the final minute of the first period. McGroarty jumped out on a shorthanded breakaway and made it count to give WBS the lead.
— x – Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (@WBSPenguins) May 19, 2026
The score would remain that way until the third period until Boko Imama (!!) made a beautiful pass over for Zonnon to finish and extend WBS’s lead to 2-0 with 14 minutes to go.
— x – Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (@WBSPenguins) May 20, 2026
For a while this game looked similar to Game 2 in this series, where WBS took a multi-goal lead and Springfield then made a desperate late comeback effort. The Thunderbirds scored with 3:39 remaining to drop the score to 2-1. They kept pushing as time wound down but in Game 3 there would be no overtime, Wilkes hangs on for a 2-1 win. Sergei Murashov stops 27 of 28 with another strong performance, especially down the stretch in the final segment.
WBS will have the opportunity to close the series out and move onto the winner of Toronto/Cleveland by winning Game 4 tomorrow night.
Up at the NHL level, the Penguins have to be excited to see another strong night from so many important players. Murashov is showing mastery of the AHL level (1.82 GAA, .942 save% in the playoffs) to suggest he’s ready for NHL action. McGroarty scoring while shorthanded gives a reminder that he should be in the conversation for a spot next season. Zonnon is still playing AHL fourth line in his very first taste of pro hockey, but it’s becoming harder to remember the more green aspects of where he’s at in his journey when he scores a goal every game he plays – especially since the AHL is known to be lower scoring hockey than the NHL and goals in the playoffs come at a huge premium. Good run so far for Wilkes, Pittsburgh has to be extremely encouraged to see a lot of the important names for the NHL radar continually show up and stand out in this playoff run.
The Boston Celtics have wasted no time ramping up their pre-draft process, scheduling three additional workouts with potential draft candidates.
According to Hoopshype’s draft workout tracker, Boston has either already hosted or is set to host the following prospects for workouts in the coming days.
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 24: Baba Miller #18 of the Cincinnati Bearcats runs across the court during the first half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena on February 24, 2026 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Baba Miller is one of the more intriguing developmental forwards in this draft cycle because of his rare blend of size, mobility, and perimeter skill. Standing at 6-foot-10, the Spanish forward possesses the raw tools, versatility, and physical profile that NBA teams covet in today’s modern game. He grew up developing in Real Madrid’s youth system just like the most recent Celtics first round pick Hugo Gonzalez.
Miller spent his first two collegiate seasons at Florida State before transferring to Florida Atlantic, where he began to consistently flash the immense potential that once made him a highly regarded international prospect. His strong play there drew increased attention from scouts and ultimately paved the way for his move to Cincinnati, where he put together the most productive season of his collegiate career.
Offensively, Miller’s biggest appeal lies in his guard-like skill set despite nearly being seven feet tall. A former guard before a major growth spurt, he remains comfortable handling the ball in transition, initiating offense, and making advanced reads as a passer. Miller’s 3.7 assists per game and 23.3 AST% ranked in the 99th percentile for his position.
He also proved to be a viable playmaking option out of the post, routinely zipping passes to open teammates and facilitating offense from the interior. His effectiveness in this area has improved as his frame has gradually filled out, though there is still a lot of room for additional strength development. Miller thrives when attacking open space, frequently ripping and running after defensive rebounds and generating quick offense in transition. His 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio ranked in the 97th percentile, though his 2.2 turnovers per game still raise some concerns about decision-making consistency. Even so, I remain very confident in his overall passing ability and feel for the game. With a likely reduction in on-ball responsibilities at the next level and NBA reps, there is reason to believe those turnover numbers should naturally decline. He also finishes efficiently around the basket, converting 71 percent of his attempts at the rim, 60 percent from two-point range overall and slammed home 58 dunks.
Defensively is where Miller projects most favorably at the NBA level. His length, lateral mobility, and instincts allow him to guard multiple positions effectively, ranging from wings to smaller bigs. He is disruptive in passing lanes, rotates well as a help defender, and provides weak-side rim protection thanks to his timing and recovery ability. Even though he’s not a huge stock percentages player, his impact was more than felt on court and through the advanced metrics. He ranked in the 96th percentile in Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) on the defensive side and opponent effective field goal percentage.
Miller also does a great job closing possessions on the glass posting a 27.7 defensive rebound parentage last season.
The biggest concern surrounding Miller remains his offensive consistency, particularly as a shooter. While flashes of perimeter scoring exist, his three-point shot and free-throw percentages have fluctuated throughout his collegiate career, leading some scouts to question whether he can become a reliable floor spacer. During his lone season at Florida Atlantic, he shot 34 percent from a three-point range on 114 attempts, a respectable mark for a player with his size. However, this past season he struggled from deep, shooting a career-low 19 percent from beyond the arc but converted a career-best 66 percent from the free-throw line on 149 attempts.
There is optimism with this organization in particular as the Celtics have a strong recent track record of helping players develop as shooters, with names such as Derrick White (before this year), Grant Williams, and Jordan Walsh all showing notable improvement after arriving in Boston just to name a few. Along with the shooting though, adding strength to his frame and tightening his decision-making under pressure are also viewed as developmental priorities.
Even with those concerns, Miller’s upside continues to intrigue NBA evaluators because players with his combination of size, athletic fluidity, defensive versatility, and playmaking instincts are difficult to find. If his shooting becomes even league average, he has the tools to develop into a valuable two-way rotation forward capable of fitting into multiple lineup constructions.
AUSTIN, TX – JANUARY 29: Houston Cougars guard Emanuel Sharp (21) catches an inbounds pass during the Big 12 college basketball game between Texas Longhorns and Houston Cougars on January 29, 2024, at Moody Center in Austin, Texas. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Emanuel Sharp is one of the most polished and impactful perimeter shooters in college basketball, operating as a high-level scoring guard for the Houston Cougars. Standing at just under 6-foot-3 and around 205 pounds, he brings a strong, compact frame, advanced off-ball instincts, and a reputation as one of the nation’s premier catch-and-shoot threats.
Offensively, Sharp’s game is built around elite shooting gravity. He consistently moves well without the ball, uses screens effectively, and punishes defenses that overcommit elsewhere. His jumper is quick, repeatable, and highly efficient, making him a constant threat from beyond the arc both in spot-up situations and in motion. He’s a smart high IQ ball player that knows how to weaponize his shooting gravity with relocations and slips. The shot is slightly off to the side, which reminds me of Kevin Martin. The elite touch can be reinforced by his career shooting averages of 37 percent from three and 87 percent from the line. Over his college career, he has steadily increased his scoring output, reaching 15.5 points per game in his most recent season.
Beyond the shooting Sharp brings more value than expected. While I never expect him to be a primary creator, he has shown improved comfort attacking closeouts and making simple reads within the flow of the offense. He doesn’t get many attempts at the rim, but when he does, he shows good quickness and he never seems to shy away from contact. He shot 67 percent at the rim last season on 50 shots. His playmaking ability isn’t anything to write home about, but I really value smart players who make sound decisions and don’t turn the ball over. Sharp’s 1.7 assists per game is low for a guard, but there is no doubt about his ability to make quick and correct decisions. He also has averaged less than one turnover per game for the last two seasons (99th percentile in turnover economy).
On defense, he is the hard-nosed, tough, ultra-competitive guard that all Houston perimeter players turn out to be regardless of size. His motor and feel for the game really flash on this end rather than the athleticism and stock rates. While he is not an elite lockdown defender, every trait I mentioned is what I believe can make him playable at that end at the next level. Being just under 6’3” does mean players will have the ability to shoot over him even if he plays solid defense though. His stocky build can help him in these situations, however leading to more jumpshots from taller opponents rather than easy backdowns. Sharp made the Big 12 All-Defensive team last season.
Rafael Castro | 6’9’’ | Center | George Washington | 23
WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 03: Rafael Castro #30 of the George Washington Revolutionaries celebrates during the game against the Maine Black Bears at Charles E. Smith Athletic Center on November 03, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Rafael Castro is a senior big man for the George Washington Revolutionaries who has emerged as one of the more productive and versatile frontcourt players in the Atlantic 10. After beginning his collegiate career at Providence, where his role was limited, Castro transferred to George Washington and developed into a true focal point of the offense on both ends of the floor.
Castro’s selling point is as a rim-to-rim energy big who can be highly disruptive on the defensive end. Offensively, his game is largely built around finishing plays at the rim. He consistently scores in pick-and-roll situations as a roll man, where his soft hands and quick vertical burst make him a reliable target. He also takes advantage of his mobility, using his foot speed to rim run in transition and slip behind opposing bigs when rolling to the basket.
Castro posted strong efficiency numbers in these areas, registering 1.18 points per possession as a roll man and 1.56 points per possession in transition. While he is unlikely to project as a primary hub big at the next level, he can still be utilized effectively as a handoff passer and a stationary Delay facilitator at the top of the key, where he can keep the offense moving with simple, timely reads.
Defensively, Castro brings a blend of size, mobility, and activity that allowed him to be one of the best defensive playmakers in college basketball rather than a traditional anchor big. He can cover the ground quickly and rotate into plays out of nowhere as a help defender. One of Castro’s most impactful traits is his ability to protect the rim through timing rather than sheer size or vertical intimidation alone. He is a strong shot-contester who does a good job of meeting drivers early and altering shots at the point of attack. While he is not an elite one-on-one post stopper against bigger, stronger centers, he consistently competes, stays vertical, and uses his length to make finishing difficult for opposing bigs. Castro seems like someone who would thrive on a team that puts their center on opposing wings who can’t shoot which allows the five to roam and be athletic.
As far as the stock numbers go, Castro averaged 3.5 stocks per game, combining steals and blocks at a high volume for a frontcourt player. His 3.5 steal percentage ranks in the 98th percentile, underscoring his disruptive presence as a help defender and his instincts in jumping passing lanes and digging down on drives. He also posted a 7.9 block percentage, further highlighting his ability to protect the rim and contest shots at a strong rate. He also brings real value as a defensive rebounder and possession-ender. He pursues the ball with energy, boxes out consistently, and uses his mobility to chase down rebounds outside his immediate area.
The main limitation at the next level for Castro is that his frame can be tested against stronger interior scorers, especially in half-court post situations, where he can be nudged off balance or forced into early fouls. He also isn’t a high-volume rim deterrent in the traditional sense, meaning his impact is more about collective defense and disruption than outright paint domination. He also doesn’t stretch the floor, which is completely fine for his archetype, but he will have to provide real value at the things he does well to offset that.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MAY 09: Cam Schlittler #31 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on May 09, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last month, I was given the opportunity to introduce a new series that I have been super excited to explore alongside all of you. It regards a trend we had noticed developing in the Yankees pitching room toward the end of the 2024 season. At that point, the league was still very much in the midst of the four-seamer craze that arose to counter the launch angle revolution. However, something was brewing inside the Yankees pitching lab, and bit by bit we started to see the return of a pitch many thought was made obsolete by this new era of steep swings and high spin — the sinker.
Now, I am thrilled to introduce the first installment in this series about the Yankees’ role in the return of the sinker, and who better to kick things off than perhaps the best pitcher in baseball right now, Cam Schlittler. In analyzing the underpinnings of Schlittler’s meteoric rise, a lot of the focus this season centers on a conversation he had with Gerrit Cole about how to get the most out of his cutter — namely to throw it at max effort. As much as I certainly agree that Schlittler’s newly elite cutter is the principal driver of his success, I also feel that not enough attention gets paid to the adjustments Matt Blake and the rest of the pitching coaches have helped him make on the sinker.
First, let’s start with the physical characteristics of the pitch. In his debut season of 2025, Schlittler’s sinker averaged 97.6 mph, 16.8 inches of vertical drop, and 12.5 inches of arm-side run. This year, it is averaging 97.3 mph, 18.2 inches of vertical drop, and 14.2 inches of arm-side run. There is no appreciable difference in spin rate, spin axis, or active spin from one year to the next, so this extra movement is likely down to a subtle shift in seam orientation at release, taking advantage of seam-shifted wake — turbulence in the laminar air flow across a baseball as it travels through the air caused by a seam’s position independent of the axis of spin — to create more sink and more lateral movement toward the right-handed hitter’s batter’s box.
Next, let’s look at the changes to the pitch’s usage. Schlittler threw the sinker just 6.1-percent of the time in 2025 — that’s up to a 19.1-percent usage rate through ten starts, Schlittler more than tripling the frequency with which he uses the pitch. In 2025, he threw the pitch almost exclusively to righties, only eight of the 76 he threw coming against lefties. The pitch doesn’t have anywhere near as pronounced of a platoon split, Schlittler throwing exactly one-third of his 171 sinkers to lefties. Last season he pretty much only targeted the arm-side edge of the zone with the sinker, burying it in on the hands of right-handed batters. He still tries to jam righties inside with the pitch, but he has also learned to throw it to the glove-side edge of the plate looking to steal a back-door called strike against righties or a front-door called strike against lefties. In this manner, he is able to induce chases and whiffs against sinkers in off the plate against righties and also earn the punch out looking when he starts the sinker in the left-handed batter’s box and allows the arm-side run to carry it into the zone.
Schlittler’s sinker got hit pretty hard in 2025 which perhaps explains his reluctance to use it. Batters were hitting .357 with a 15 degree average launch angle leading to more line drives and fly balls than you would expect against a sinker. This year, they are batting .185 with a zero degree average launch angle, taking the pitch from a 36.4-percent ground ball rate in 2025 to a 67.5-percent ground ball rate in 2026. This is likely down to a combination of factors including Schlittler’s improved command of the pitch, the greater variety of situations and locations he’s willing to throw it, and the improved movement on the pitch.
The most important development with Schlittler’s sinker is the way that it interacts with the other two fastballs in his arsenal, the four-seamer and cutter. A central topic in current pitching research is the importance for pitchers, especially starters, to throw multiple types of fastballs. Schlittler is perhaps the most extreme example of this paradigm, throwing his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker a combined 90.9-percent of the time. It is much harder for the hitter to distinguish one fastball from another than it is to distinguish a fastball from a slider or curveball, meaning that three different pitches that look exactly the same out of the pitcher’s hand can land in very different locations once they get to home plate.
Cam Schlittler, Fastball, Sinker and Cutter overlay
It's tough to hit when you throw 3 different types of fastballs, all in the upper 90s. pic.twitter.com/EBnLvwk09F
I’ve found that Schlittler has become quite adept at tunneling his sinker with his four-seamer. Check out this example below, a two-pitch sequence against Pete Alonso in the beginning of May:
Schlitter throws a four-seamer pretty much down the middle, the velocity taking it right by Alonso. He then aims a sinker at the exact same starting point, yet the pitch ends up almost a foot inside off the plate, leading to a very awkward check-swing strike from Alonso. It’s no wonder Schlittler throws so many fastballs when he can make the hitter look silly like this throwing just gas.
We all know about the massive jump in velocity that earned Schlittler his call-up in 2025. We also have learned about how instrumental Cole’s advice was in turning Schlittler’s cutter into an almost untouchable pitch. But I truly feel that Schlittler’s gains with the sinker are just as important in transforming him into an ace who looks like he can take the league by storm for years to come.
COVERS INTEL: Mahle isn't fooling anyone, with chase and whiff rates that rank in the 
