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Do Heat have edge over Celtics in potential Giannis Antetokounmpo trade? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Now that the NBA Finals are over, the biggest story in basketball is the future of Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Antetokounmpo has played the first 13 years of his career with the Bucks and led the franchise to a championship in 2021 — its first since 1971.

But it appears his time in Milwaukee could be comingto an end, and with the 2026 NBA Draft set to begin next Tuesday, a deal could potentially happen in the short term.

The two teams most often mentioned in Antetokounmpo trade rumors over the last few weeks have been the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.

The Heat are seemingly always in the mix when a huge star is rumored to be available. The Celtics need an upgrade at center and have the ability to put together a compelling trade package. And unlike several other contenders, the C’s still control a bunch of their future first-round picks.

So, which team has the edge in the race for Antetokounmpo? What’s the latest on this situation? The Boston Globe’s Gary Washburn provided an update on Monday’s edition of NBC Sports Boston’s Boston Sports Tonight.

“I don’t think (Giannis) is going to be a Celtic, and that’s just from what I’m hearing,’ Washburn said. “I think the Celtics are gauging what it would take to get Giannis to Boston and trying to figure out whether they want to move Jaylen Brown.”

Washburn later added: “I do think Miami has the edge on this, but I do think Boston is kinda sniffing around and finding out could you even acquire Giannis without sacrificing Jaylen? That would be a big question. What is exactly Milwaukee looking for? Who is the third team involved? Because it’s gonna have to be a third team involved.”

Tim Reynolds, a Miami-based NBA writer for the Associated Press, gave the following update on X late Monday night.

There’s no question that Antetokounmpo is still an elite player entering his age 32 season. His record speaks for itself: Two league MVPs, 10 All-Star appearances, nine All-NBA appearances (seven first team), a Finals MVP and one championship, among other accolades.

Antetokounmpo is also two years older than Brown and more injury prone. The Bucks star played in only 36 games last season and has appeared in 70-plus games in a single season only once since 2019. Antetokounmpo also has advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once since 2022, and outside of the 2021 title, the Bucks have been perennial playoff underachievers.

We also have plenty of evidence that the duo of Brown and Jayson Tatum is championship-caliber. They have played in five Eastern Conference Finals and two NBA Finals (one title in 2024) together.

Either way, it’ll be fascinating to watch the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes play out. A top-five player being traded always shifts the balance of power in the league.

The offseason is officially upon us and the Dallas Mavericks have both a coaching hire and two draft picks to think about in the near term. Regarding the former, it is now being reported that no fewer than five candidates are known to be on the Mavericks’ radar. Those names include Micah Nori, Royal Ivey, Jama Mahlalela, Tony Dobbins and Terry Stotts.

The following is a high-level overview of each candidate and their coaching resume.

Micah Nori – Minnesota Timberwolves

The 52-year old Nori has been an assistant coaching fixture in the NBA for 17 straight seasons. He spent his first four with the Toronto Raptors, followed by two with the Sacramento Kings, three with the Denver Nuggets, three with the Detroit Pistons and the prior five years with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

His time spent in Toronto is of particular note, as it was there he assisted under head coaches Jay Triano and Dwane Casey. Ironically, the former is a current assistant coach for the Mavs (though that may be short lived after the departure of Jason Kidd) and the latter was an assistant for Dallas when the Mavs won the championship in 2011. More relevant however, is Nori’s brief bit of time crossing over with Masai Ujiri when the current Mavs’ President was the assistant GM in Toronto. Mavs’ fans are familiar with Nori from their 2024 Playoffs matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves. During that series, Nori worked the sideline as a de facto head coach for the Timberwolves while Chris Finch sat second row as he recovered from a knee injury.

Simply put, Nori has been around the block and worked with some of the best coaches and best players in the game today, making his candidacy highly plausible.

Royal Ivey – Houston Rockets

Ivey, at age 44, has accumulated a solid 10-year assistant coaching career of his own, following a 10-year playing career in the NBA. He spent two years with the Oklahoma City Thunder, then two with the New York Knicks, followed by three with the Brooklyn Nets and three with the Houston Rockets.

Ivey was born in New York, but has ties to Texas by way of his collegiate playing days at the University of Texas at Austin. Something of a journeyman in his NBA playing days, Ivey quickly transitioned to a coaching career where he has been ever since. Beyond assistant coaching in the NBA, Ivey served as head coach of the South Sudan national team, eventually coaching the team in its first-ever Olympic berth in 2024.

Ivey may not be getting quite as much attention as someone like Nori, but he brings his own unique experiences from his time both at home and abroad.

Jama Mahlalela – Toronto Raptors

Aside from a two-year stint as an assistant coach with the Golden State Warriors from 2021-2023, the 46-year old has spent significant time with the Toronto Raptors. His tenure began back in 2006 as part of the community development team and then served as Director of Basketball Operations for NBA Asia. Beginning in 2013 and for five-straight years, Mahlalela was back serving as an assistant coach in the North, then took on the head coaching reigns for the Raptors’ G-League affiliate. From there, it was another year as an assistant with the Raptors, then the aforementioned Warriors stint, then a return to the Raptors for the past three years.

Although he was technically uninvolved with the Raptors during their 2019 championship run, as he was concerned with his head coaching duties with the G-League team, he did net himself a more direct championship in his short run with the Warriors as an assistant in 2022. He brings a unique resume with his time spent in Hong Kong running NBA Asia overseeing clinics and other developmental programs.

Mahlalela has a diverse background and is certainly very familiar with Ujiri from their overlapping time in Toronto, making him another candidate with direct ties to the current Mavs’ regime.

Tony Dobbins – Boston Celtics

The 44-year old Dobbins has the least extensive coaching resume of the group, having been an assistant coach with the Boston Celtics for the past six years.

Dobbins went undrafted in the 2004 NBA Draft, but nonetheless had himself a playing career in both the G-League and overseas until 2017. Beginning in 2020, he kicked off his coaching career as an assistant with the Celtics, where he has been ever since. His championship ring came at the expense of the Mavericks in 2024 giving him some hardware like others on this list.

Dobbins arguably has less than the others in terms of experience, yet has been part of a highly regarded franchise and got himself a ring in relatively short order.

Terry Stotts – Golden State Warriors

We previously covered Stotts in a standalone article earlier this month, so we’ll avoid a redundancy here. Suffice it to say, Stotts is a basketball lifer with strong connections to the Mavericks’ 2011 championship team. He was an assistant coach under Rick Carlisle at the time, before moving on to become head coach for the Portland Trailblazers for nine seasons.

I invite you to follow me @_80MPH on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.

Should the Hawks keep their eighth overall pick, they’ll have an opportunity to draft one of a handful of ‘second tier’ prospects in one of the most hyped draft classes in a long time.

Today, we’ll be taking a look at Keaton Wagler, a 19-year-old 6-foot-5 guard from Illinois that has rocketed into the lottery discussion over the past 12 months in the very strong 2026 NBA Draft. In his lone college season, he averaged 17.9 points, 4.2 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 45% from the field, 40% from three, and 80% from the free throw line.

Wagler is a silky ball handler and a savvy pick-and-roll operator, but he comes with questions about his high-end athleticism, off-ball engagement, and fit in an NBA team defense. Let’s dive into the good and bad in a player the Hawks could still see on the board after the first seven picks.

Offense

Keaton Wagler isn’t a point guard by trade, but he operated on the ball as the focal point of the Illinois offense due to his offensive gifts. Like a lot of right-handed players, he prefers to go left to get to his shots. Still, he’s a steady operator on the ball who can comfortably change pace like a point guard — whether pushing in transition or resetting the action in halfcourt sets.

Although his first step isn’t overly explosive, he can self-create at an NBA-level already with an array of hesitation dribbles, crossover and step backs pull up jumpers. He does well to get skinny dribbling in traffic and is great at keeping his dribble alive even when pressured. He shot 40% from three on 5.9 attempts per game, and with his smooth shooting mechanics and deep range, that mark was no fluke:

When he gets all the way to the rim, he’s skillful finisher with either hand — although his 58% scoring efficiency at the rim could stand to improve. Still, the frequency with which he gets to the rim off the dribble is among the best in the class, and with some added bulk on his frame, one can imagine his conversion rate on those attempts will increase:

Additionally, he’ll step into the league as an advanced catch-and-shoot artist already with the ability to find gaps in the defense around the arc.

But one area of improvement going forward will be his efficiency from floater range, especially considering the trees that exist on NBA teams at the next level. He doesn’t look comfortable lofting balls higher when shooting from just outside the restricted area, and per databallr, he shot below 50% from between three and seven feet from the rim.

Other than that, his Illinois shot profile is readymade for 2020s basketball — very little mid-range fat and a heavy dose of rim (35% of shot attempts within five feet) and three (48% of shot attempts). He also sported a healthy .476 free throw rate in his one-and-done season with the Illini. These factors, plus of course being an elite shot-maker, helped him manage a 60% true shooting percentage in his one-and-done season.

Wagler isn’t a transcendent passer or anything, but he sees the floor well and typically makes the correct pass when needed. Last season, he averaged 7.6 assists per 100 possessions against just 3.2 turnovers per 100 possessions — a healthy 2.4:1 ratio. He should settle into being a secondary playmaker at the next level with some upside on a team with a primary creator already in place.

Handling ball pressure is a big asset for Wagler, and you rarely see silly turnovers or misreads when doubles come his direction. His pick-and-roll game is advanced with the ability to hit bigs with pocket passes or spray passes to the corner if defenses over-help. But his biggest asset is the ability to find space for his step back three-point, and his reading of screen coverages combined with his shooting off the dribble will create real gravity to open up his teammates.

I do worry about his tunnel vision when driving into the lane. He’s not a very good passer out of drives or from under the rim at the moment, and that combined with his issues finishing through traffic could spell trouble initially at the next level:

Still, the overall offensive package is worthy of him going top 5 in my humble opinion. He’s a player that blends scoring, relocation for kickout threes, and playmaking in an enticing package for scouts and bloggers alike.

Defense

Wagler measured 6’5” without shoes at the NBA Combine with just a 6’6.25” wingspan underlining his average-at-best measurables. There has been a lot of handwringing about his lack of physicality and explosion — and these are real concerns — but he did register a 36-inch max vertical, 11.05-second lane agility run, and 3.00-second shuttle run which were all strong marks for guards of his general stature.

At the moment, he’s not quick enough to guard NBA point guards and he’s not strong enough to switch and credibly guard bigger NBA athletes. But in time, and with a concerted effort in his strength and conditioning program to fill out his slight frame, he could be a positive player on this end even if not a high-level one.

Defensively, his lack of strength is serious issue at the moment. He’s often bullied when defending drives more often than you’d like to see from a wing defender:

But he can sometimes use his wiry 188-pound frame to cause disruption despite low steals numbers. He processes plays on the defensive end rather well and is typically in the right position to make plays.

He manages to affect some shots both when closing out on the perimeter and even sometimes in rim protection duty (0.7 blocks per 100 possessions). I think he’ll eventually be a solid enough team defender with enough awareness to rotate and help when needed. But at the moment, he’s fairly prone to lapses on this end.

The upper body frailty shows up when navigating screens as well. He’ll have to get a lot stronger so as to not get walled off by basic on-ball screens.

The defensive motor can run a bit hot and cold, especially when defending off the ball, so keeping him engaged possession after possession will be a focus for his next coaching staff. But there have never been any red flags over his work ethic or competitiveness. I do believe he’ll work his way into being a team defender that doesn’t get picked on in time.

Wagler was a high usage player on team that stormed into the final four, playing in all 37 games and averaging 34 minutes per contest. I think this heavy workload sapped his ability to make plays on the defensive end, especially for a player who isn’t fully physically mature.

Ultimately, he’s not a particularly impactful or versatile defender coming into the league — one who will likely be assigned to the weakest opposing perimeter player. But there is a development path there for him to turn some heads defensively down the road.

Possible fit on the Hawks

I won’t mince words: if Wagler is sitting there available when the Hawks draft at 8, in my mind he’ll be the best player available — barring something crazy happening. He won’t go top 4, and there’s a chance all of the Clippers, Nets, and Kings all pass on him for high players on their respective boards, but I believe Wagler’s upside is as high as anyone’s in this draft not named Boozer, Dybantsa, Peterson or Wilson.

I try not to get too caught up in player comparisons, but he is in a similar mold to CJ McCollum — a two-guard with the on-ball creative skills to be an efficient 20-plus per-game scorer in the NBA. But his size and playmaking both have projectable potential beyond that of the veteran who buoyed the Hawks down the stretch of last season.

Although the Knicks’ title run has made the first-round series against them seem less disastrous, Atlanta could still use more ball handling and pull up shooting. Wagler would be a great fit in the backcourt with Dyson Daniels, who is obviously more pass-first and much more defensive-minded in that duo.

In total, among the ‘next tier’ of guys including Mikel Brown Jr., Aday Mara, and Kingston Flemings, Wagler’s skillful package on offense gives him the edge on my big board.

Since posting the YODA Big Board, the number one question I’ve gotten is about the somewhat unorthodox ranking of University of Michigan big guys — Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr.

Below are there ranks according to Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA), my stat-based draft analysis tool, and the Rookie Scale Consensus Mock Draft:

Why the disconnect?

To answer that question, let’s back up and look at how YODA works. As previously written, YODA is calculated using box score stats, objective measures of physical tools from the draft combine, as objective as I could find (or develop) measures of level of competition, expected NBA position, and age. All that information roils around in the spreadsheet and spits out a single score for each prospect.

Deciding on a future position is the least objective part of the process — it definitely involves some art. For example, a coach might consider a player a forward in his program even if the player doesn’t have the shooting, ball handling or playmaking necessary to play that position in the NBA. If a guy can’t make threes — or doesn’t even take them, he’s going to have to play center in the NBA, even if he’s skinny as a rake or 6-6.

Flip side of the coin, a 6-6, 250 pound collegiate “center” probably won’t succeed in the middle at the NBA unless he has extreme physical tools (long arms, outlandish leaping or agility) or has previously unrevealed skills like the ability to knock down threes consistently.

Anyway, In terms of raw statistical production, Lendeborg comes out on top. By a little. If we say Lendeborg’s stats rate a 10, Johnson’s are worth a bit over 9, and Mara’s right about 9. All of them put up impressive numbers consistent with players who successfully transition to the NBA.

Johnson and Mara rebounded a bit better. Lendeborg shot well (with three-point range) and did more playmaking (though Mara’s assists were excellent for a center), and all three showed strength as defensive playmakers — Lendeborg and Johnson with steals and blocks; Mara with 4.4 blocks per 40 minutes. All things being equal, Lendeborg’s production score was slightly more impressive than the other two.

But all things are not equal. I mean, level of competition is exactly equal for these three, but trying to determine who’s going to have the best NBA career involves a few more steps.

Age matters. When it comes to the NBA Draft, younger is better. Player peak and career trajectory research indicates that players typically make their biggest leaps in their early 20s, peak around 26-27 and then more or less maintain into their early 30s. At which point, most players get worse or get injured — or both.

In arguing against age restrictions to enter the NBA Draft, former Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban once said he wanted the option to pick high school players. He said he’d rather have players develop in his organization with professional coaches than on a college campus.

In terms of age, Johnson has the advantage (he’s 20), followed by Mara (21), and Lendeborg (23). Lendeborg is on the old side for a top NBA prospect. That’s not to say he won’t succeed (or even have a long career) — plenty of players have started their NBA careers as old or older and gone on to great things. Some have started late and had long careers.

But YODA (and eyeball scouts) has to consider the norm. And the norm is that 23-year-olds don’t make Big Jumps in production the way a 20-year-old would.

That 23-year-old can and will get better. But, on average, he has less room to get better because he’s already had more time to develop — physically, skills, experience, etc. And it comes into play when assessing statistical production. Did he post the great numbers because he’s a great player or because he’s 2-4 years older than most of his competitors?

Lendeborg was slightly more productive overall than his younger teammates. That age difference closes the gap. Basically, YODA is less impressed by Lendeborg’s production than it would be if a 20-year-old put up the exact same numbers against the exact same competition.

In predicting who will make the best NBA player, physical tools matter as well. They’re not everything, but they do make a difference.

Mara is massive, measuring 7-3 in socks with a 7-6 wingspan at the combine. Johnson measured 6-9, but with a 7.3.5 wingspan — just 2.5 inches shorter than Mara’s. Lendeborg was shortest (6-8.75), though he also had a wingspan above 7-3.

The way this ends up in YODA is that Mara’s and Lendeborg’s scores get bumps for size (Lendeborg helped a bit by my estimation that he’ll play more forward in the NBA than center), while Johnson gets neither bump nor ding. He’s basically right in the normal range for an NBA big.

Agility and leaping ability are important attributes, and at the combine Johnson established a clear advantage. He scored well enough to get bumps in both categories. Mara got dings in both — he was slow and ground-bound. Lendeborg was in the normal range for a forward on agility but got dinged for subpar vertical measures.

So, the way things look to YODA, the three Michigan big guys have comparable overall statistical production against equally challenging competition. Johnson gets the higher scorer because he’s younger and has better physical tools. Lendeborg is next because of his positional versatility. Mara brings up the rear (and rates as a late first or early second in most draft classes) because while he’s huge and was productive in college, he was slow and jumped poorly as compared to other center prospects.

Predicting who will be the better NBA player is not strictly about who was the best college player. Those other factors have to be considered. And in the case of the Michigan bigs, the YODA system has somewhat different predictions than others.

This just warmed my heart:

Just two days after a heartbreaking ending to their 2025-2026 campaign, Victor Wembanyama and Julian Champagnie visited Methodist Children’s Hospital. They brought smiles and lifted the spirits of several young patients.

Wembanyama, who has broken records and exceeded expectations all season, had comparisons to the greatest all-time players at each turn.

Julian Champagnie also set Spurs franchises records for three-pointers in a single game (11), in a season (195) and in the postseason (61).

While the duo were bringing smiles, they also handed out some Spurs shirts and collectibles.

Known for their community outreach, the Spurs are no strangers to making appearances, especially to those experiencing hardships. It’s a wonderful opportunity to bond with fans and spread some joy.

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