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It’s the rubber match of a three-game set between the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks and host Milwaukee Brewers.

My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers predictions and free MLB picks side with the visitors, who own the advantage in the pitching matchup on Thursday, April 30.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Brewers today: Diamondbacks moneyline (+112)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to win a series for the first time in four sets, sending Canadian Michael Soroka to the bump.

At 4-0, the righty leads the team in wins and boasts a crisp 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Soroka is blistering the opposition with an 11.06 K/9, leading the Arizona staff with 34 strikeouts. His slurve is especially lethal, creating a 35.8% whiff rate.

Brandon Woodruff will start for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he's coming off his first loss of the year. The veteran also hasn't been his best to date, boasting a 20% strikeout rate that would rank as his lowest since tossing 43 innings in his rookie season back in 2017.

He's simply not missing bats like he used to, and that will haunt him against Corbin Carroll & Co.

COVERS INTEL: The Diamondbacks are hitting .270 vs Woodruff, with a .778 OPS. Carroll is 4-for-8 with a triple, while Ketel Marte is 4-for-12 (.333) with a pair of doubles.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-125)

Offense has been the name of the game in this series, with the two teams combining for 23 runs through the first two games.

Even with Soroka on the mound, he will eventually need to turn it over to a bullpen that ranks Bottom-4 in the National League in ERA (4.93).

Woodruff lasted just five innings after surrendering three runs and five hits, and his bullpen is just middle of the pack with a 3.94 ERA.

These teams have cashed the Over in four of the last six head-to-head meetings, and the lowest total of the series is worth taking a run at in the finale.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +113 | Brewers -117
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+194) | Brewers +1.5 (-213)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Brewers and game info

Diamondbacks vs Brewers latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather

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Last year, the Braves randomly swept the Tigers late in the year, pulling down the relatively competitive team into their own 2025 muck for a bit. This year, the Braves are rocking and rolling and having a great time, and can sweep the Tigers again with a successful performance on Thursday afternoon.

The Braves largely cruised to a 5-2 victory in the series opener, and then won the series when Matt Olson hit a walkoff two-run homer off old pal Kenley Jansen to deliver a victory in a game started by reigning Cy Young awardee Tarik Skubal. Will they have more heroics in store for us today, or will it be another ho-hum, wire-to-wire win? Or, dare they actually lose a game? We’ll see.

On the hill for Atlanta will be Bryce Elder, who comes in with a 47/77/92 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). That line is surprising in some ways, especially because his fWAR is a top-30 mark among starters in baseball right now due to his teeny-tiny HR/FB rate. Elder really turned heads during his first four starts of the year, where he was stellar in three of them, but he’s been more in line with expectations in the two since. He had a 6/2 K/BB ratio and gave up a homer against the Nationals, and then had a very weird game where he lasted seven frames but managed just a 2/1 K/BB ratio against the Phillies, which was the Braves’ most recent loss.

Opposing Elder and the Braves will be Framber Valdez, who is, in some ways, having a pretty unusual start to his year. Valdez signed a large, $115 million, three-year (ish, it’s a little complicated) deal with the Tigers relatively late in the offseason, after concerns about his personality cooled his market coming off another 4 fWAR year. Before free agency, Valdez was a model of consistency, between 3.7 and 4.4 fWAR over his past four seasons, with FIP- and xFIP- marks all tightly clustered between 75 and 82 in all four seasons. That’s kind of absurd when you think about it.

But, 2026 has been a different story so far as Valdez takes the ball in a uniform other than the one he wore for all eight prior seasons of his career: his strikeouts are down, his walks are up, hitters are finding it easier to elevate against him, and he’s getting by in part because of a low HR/FB. His line is 81/90/104, which vaguely resembles his 79/80/77 line over the past four seasons, but definitely not on the back of his pitching. In his six starts, three have been good, one has been so-so, and two have been problematic — including his most recent, where the Reds thrashed him and chased him after just 13 outs, while he posted a 4/5 K/BB ratio and gave up a homer. Even if the Braves battle Valdez to a relative standstill, they’ll still have a chance against a beleaguered and ineffective Detroit bullpen, so don’t count them out if Elder hangs in there, even if Valdez is lulling them to sleep with his sinker in the middle innings.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, April 30, 12:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv (and Braves.tv if you’re in-market, etc.)

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

At what point do the Houston Astros decide enough is enough?

This question isn’t just about the players on the field, it extends to leadership at every level, from the manager to the front office. Around Major League Baseball, we’ve already seen organizations take decisive action. The Boston Red Sox recently made sweeping changes, moving on from Alex Cora and much of his coaching staff due to a lack of results. The Philadelphia Phillies have also made headlines with similar decisions.

That raises a pressing question in Houston: will owner Jim Crane follow suit?

A Front Office Under Pressure

Both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are in the final year of their contracts. For Brown in particular, the scrutiny has intensified.

Throughout his tenure, there’s been a lingering sense of uncertainty surrounding his decision-making. While there have been occasional successes, the broader question remains: has he consistently done enough to improve the team?

That concern is magnified when looking at the offseason. The Astros’ need for pitching help was clear. With departures like Framber Valdez looming and multiple arms returning from injury, the expectation was that Houston would aggressively reinforce its rotation and bullpen.

Instead, Brown took a different approach, one that is now under heavy criticism.

Pitching Problems Mount

One of the most notable moves was the signing of Tatsuya Imai. So far, that decision has not paid off. His struggles have now extended to his rehab stint last night in Double-A Corpus Christi. He couldn’t even throw 3 innings, gave up 5 runs on 6 hits including a home run and only threw 31 strikes in 59 pitches. His inability to pitch deep into games or maintain control, as well as his documented struggles to adjust to Major League baseball and life in the United States. There is real reason to question whether he can figure things out and contribute at the major league level.

Meanwhile, injuries to key pitchers like Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier have left the rotation in flux. The constant shuffling has placed enormous strain on the bullpen, as they are being pressed into extended action and thus, taxing the arms that have actually been effective. As a whole, the staff has the worst ERA in baseball, allowing nearly six runs per game.

This is particularly troubling given Brown’s offseason confidence in the team’s pitching depth, a belief that now appears misplaced.

Missed Opportunities in the Lineup

Pitching isn’t the only issue. The Astros also entered the season with a clear need for a corner outfielder to balance a roster heavy on infield talent. Despite that, no significant addition was made.

This is where frustration deepens. Across sports, general managers on the hot seat often take bold risks to improve their teams in the short term. In Houston’s case, that urgency has been noticeably absent.

A Team Worth Saving

Ironically, the Astros’ offense has been one of the bright spots. They remain among the more productive lineups in baseball, good enough to keep the team within striking distance in the division. But at a certain point, you have to either go out and get what you need, or press the reset button and start to sell off what you have.

That’s what makes the current situation so frustrating. Even with their struggles, the Astros are still only a few games out of first place. There is time to turn things around, but only if meaningful changes are made.

Is Change Inevitable?

For Dana Brown, the message is clear: act now or risk being shown the door.

Joe Espada’s situation is more nuanced. As manager, he’s working with the roster he’s been given. However, in professional sports, managers often become the scapegoat when teams underperform. With his contract also expiring, he may not be immune to change.

One possible replacement already exists within the organization. Bench coach Omar Lopez, fresh off a World Baseball Classic victory and widely respected in the clubhouse, could be a logical candidate if Crane decides to make a move. Is it fair, no, but life isn’t fair and firing Espada may be Crane’s first move in an attempt to shake things up.

The Clock Is Ticking

Ultimately, the Astros find themselves at a crossroads. Between underperforming acquisitions, a struggling pitching staff, and expiring contracts in leadership, the pressure is building.

With a strong offense keeping them competitive, the opportunity to salvage the season still exists. But time is running out.

If improvements don’t come soon, it may only be a matter of time before Jim Crane makes sweeping changes in an effort to jumpstart the remainder of the 2026 campaign.

Arguably the Phillies’ biggest weakness in the start to a season that’s been full of them is left-handed pitching. As a team, they’re dead last in batting average (.180), OPS (.567), and wRC+ (61) against lefties. They have yet to win a game against a non-opener left-handed starting pitcher. Clearly, the Phillies need all the help they can get against lefties.

Could Randal Grichuk be of some assistance? The 34-year-old outfielder was designated for assignment by the New York Yankees yesterday after hitting .194 with a .534 OPS in 16 games played. Grichuk, who signed a one year, $2.5M minor league deal with New York in the offseason, is a right-handed hitting platoon option who has had success against lefties in the past. For his career, Grichuk owns a .268/.318/.498 batting line against left-handed pitching over the course of his 13-year career in the majors.

Grichuk’s most recent success came in 2024 as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He played in 106 games for Arizona and hit .291 with an .875 OPS and 12 home runs while being deployed in a platoon. Grichuk particularly mashed lefties, hitting .319 with a .913 OPS across 184 plate appearances. He re-signed with the D-Backs for 2025 but didn’t have the same level of success, hitting .240 with a .734 OPS in 70 games. His numbers against lefties drastically declined, with his average falling to .226 and his OPS dropping to .737. Grichuk was traded at the 2025 deadline to the Royals and cratered while in Kansas City, hitting .206 with a .566 OPS in 43 games. If you look at the sample size that dates back to his arrival in Kansas City and includes his time in New York this season, Grichuk is hitting .200 with a .556 OPS over his last 140 plate appearances with a 22.9% strikeout rate.

But the Phillies don’t currently have definitively better options. The team talked up Otto Kemp for the right-handed platoon role at every given opportunity over the offseason, but he has already been demoted to Triple-A after going 2 for 20 with 9 strikeouts in 10 games while playing brutal defense in the outfield. Felix Reyes is currently occupying Kemp’s role as Brandon Marsh’s platoon partner, but his results have not been much better. The surprising call-up hit a home run off of Chris Sale in his first at-bat, but has since collected just two hits, both of which were singles. Reyes’ tendency from his minor league career of chasing outside of the zone has carried over to the majors, as he’s swung at an alarming 58.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone through his first five games in the big leagues.

So, should the Phillies be interested in Randal Grichuk? Is he worth the flier to see if the Phillies can alleviate some of their struggles against left-handed pitching?

The Royals announced two major pitching injuries before yesterday’s 5-2 loss.

Right-handers Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna had elbow surgeries on Wednesday, with Bergert undergoing a full ulnar collateral ligament repair (Tommy John) and Kudrna – the Royals’ No. 9 prospect – undergoing an olecranon stress fracture repair on his elbow. Both are expected to miss the rest of the season.

Bergert was expected to be a major contributor for the Royals in ‘26 after they acquired him, along with Stephen Kolek, from the Padres at last year’s Trade Deadline. Bergert opened the season in Triple-A Omaha but was viewed as No. 1 on the depth chart should the Royals need a starter in the big leagues or even a fresh arm in the bullpen.

Kudrna made just one start that lasted two innings in Triple-A this year before he was placed on the IL on April 6. The olecranon is the bony tip of the elbow, and it can fracture due to overuse, typically in throwing athletes. The surgical option typically involves placing screws into the elbow to stabilize the fracture.

If you didn’t stay up late on Tuesday night, the Salvy splash got a little wild.

Columbia Fireflies SS Josh Hammond got a shoutout for being the hottest hitting prospect for the Royals currently.

Taken with the 28th overall pick last year as a North Carolina prepster, Hammond hasn’t needed any time to settle into his first full season with a .316/.398/.526 line through 20 games with Single-A Columbia. His eight doubles are third-most in the Carolina League, while his 11 extra-base hits are tied for fifth-most. The right-handed slugger was considered to have above-average power potential coming out of the Draft, and it may not be long until more of his hard-hit balls leave the yard as he gets even more comfortable this summer.

Royals Keep explained why the Royals are platooning a lot of their hitters.

Kevin O’Brien talked on why the Royals need to improve their road offense, which hasn’t been corrected yet in Sacramento.

Nathan Church of the Cardinals is robbing game winners left and right.

The Braves keep winning, and Kenley Jansen keeps giving up walk-off dingers.

Could Padres closer Mason Miller really win the NL Cy Young award this year?

D-Backs Ildemaro Vargas extends his hit streak to 25 games.

The Marlins turned one of the most improbable double plays to win the game and series against the Dodgers.

Today’s song of the day is Baker Street by Gerry Rafferty.

In the Mets’ loss to the Nationals yesterday, several of the team’s most glaring deficiencies were on full display, but David Peterson and Sean Manaea, the team’s pair of struggling left-handed pitchers, stood out the most. Neither pitcher looks competitive at the moment, and while the team’s lineup might be its downfall anyway, it sure would be nice to see the Mets putting capable pitchers out there on a daily basis.

Across seven appearances, two of which came out of the bullpen, Peterson has thrown 30.1 innings with a 6.53 ERA. Manaea has thrown 22.0 innings with a 6.55 ERA. Combined, they’ve thrown 19.4 percent of the Mets’ innings so far, making their combined contribution to the team’s struggles fairly significant. And the underlying metrics on their Statcast pages don’t look good, even as metrics like FIP and DRA suggest that both pitchers have been better than their ERAs would suggest.

If there’s any hope remaining in the Mets’ season, the team can’t just wait to see if both of these pitchers end up finding better results. But with both pitchers no longer having options thanks to their considerable major league service time, there are only two ways to get them off the active roster: placing them on the injured list, which the team did with Kodai Senga this week, or designating them for assignment and exposing them to waivers. In the latter scenario, they’d have the option of declining an outright assignment to Syracuse even if they were to clear.

Manaea has the remainder of this season and all of next season remaining on his three-year deal with the Mets that pays him $25 million per year. Should the team go the DFA route and lose him, it would be eating even more money than it is on the failed Frankie Montas contract that paid $34 million over the course of last season and this season. Peterson wouldn’t require eating nearly as much money, as he’s earning $8.1 million this year before he’s eligible for free agency following the season.

If the team goes either route to get either pitcher off the active roster, there’s also the issue of replacing them. With Manaea, that’s really not too much of a concern, as he’s essentially been used as a mop-up man, and his diminished stuff has gotten exposed in a big way lately. The Mets might feel like they need to have at least one long reliever in their bullpen, but any potentially useful reliever—Austin Warren is the one who comes to mind at the moment—would be an upgrade.

And if a keeping a long reliever in the mix is a priority, that might mean Tobias Myers is kind of stuck in that role, even if it would be awfully tempting to move him into Peterson’s rotation spot as a full-on starting pitcher rather than having him open for Peterson like he did a couple of times recently.

As for pitching prospects in the upper minors, Jonah Tong doesn’t look quite ready to get another major league look just yet. His strikeout rate remains phenomenal thus far in Triple-A, but he’s still working on walk and home run issues and currently has a 5.68 ERA for Syracuse. Jack Wenninger, who’s slated to start one of Syracuse’s games in a doubleheader today, has a much shinier 2.16 ERA for Syracuse so far this year. But his walk rate is an issue, and his last start saw him lose some velocity in the third inning while totally losing the strike zone. At minimum, you’d think he needs a strong outing today to get considered for a call-up in the near future.

Whatever the case, though, it seems like the Mets really should try doing something. The team’s biggest roster moves thus far have all involved the injured list. At the time of this writing, the organization continues to support manager Carlos Mendoza, even as the Red Sox and Phillies have fired their managers for similarly disappointing starts to the 2026 season.

Exercising patience beats reacting in a knee-jerk fashion, but staying the course with a team that collectively has a broken GPS seems like a bad plan.

Hickory starter Aidan Deakins threw 5.1 shutout innings, striking out four and walking four.

Yolfram Castillo and Daniel Flames each had a hit. In 10 innings, the Crawdads hitters struck out 15 times.

Hickory box score

Dalton Pence started for Hub City, allowing three runs on three solo homers while striking out six in five innings. Joey Danielson allowed two runs in an inning.

Malcolm Moore was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Maxton Martin had a double. Rafe Perich was 2 for 4 with a double and a walk.

Hub City box score

25 year old Aussie Blake Townsend started for Frisco, allowing two runs in four innings, striking out three and walking three.

Dylan Dreiling had a hit and a stolen base. Keith Jones II had a homer. Ian Moller had a hit and a walk.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter Josh Stephan struck out five and walked four in 4.1 IP, allowing one run. Emiliano Teodo went 0.2 IP, walking two, striking out one and allowing two runs. Thomas Ireland struck out two in a shutout inning. Alexis Diaz struck out two in a scoreless inning.

Cam Cauley had a double and a walk. Michael Helman was 2 for 5 with a homer and a stolen base. Justin Foscue had a hit and a walk.

Round Rock box score

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Almost half of the MLB schedule today starts before 1:00 p.m. ET, so we're starting nice and early with our MLB best bets, based on prices available at Polymarket.

Read on to see why our expert MLB picks start by targeting early offense in the first leg of the Astros/Orioles doubleheader, then look at the Reds to roll over a so-so starting pitcher and Arizona to win in a spot it appears mispriced.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: HOU/BAL YRFI (G1)	-113
Neil Parker: CIN -1.5	+127
Joe Osborne: ARI ML	+117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/Orioles YRFI (Game 1)

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

The total in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles is 9.5, and the YRFI is trading at just -113 — I’m in. This is the best pitching matchup to target for early offense: Chris Bassitt has had issues with Yordan Alvarez, who has taken him deep five times in 22 at-bats. On the other side, Peter Lambert is likely punching above his weight early, and I’m not buying the turnaround after prior struggles. There are command concerns on both sides that point to traffic on the bases early — this sets up well for runs in the opening frame (and throughout the game).

Neil Parker's expert pick: Reds -1.5

Price: 44¢ (+127) at Polymarket

The Colorado Rockies rank 22nd in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws — so I’m expecting Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to string together some scoreless innings this afternoon, as he's a better pitcher than his .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate indicate. Colorado counters with Michael Lorenzen, a run-of-the-mill righty with a 4.20 ERA across 551 1/3 innings since transitioning to a full-time starter in 2022.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks ML

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

Sign me up for the Arizona Diamondbacks as a small dog when they have a clear edge in both starting pitching and hitting. Mike Soroka is in the midst of a breakout season, after injuries stalled his career, and Arizona is 4-1 in his starts as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of them. He's in a great spot to carve up a struggling Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks 28th in OPS over the past two weeks. Milwaukee SP Brandon Woodruff has been solid, but Arizona’s offense — fourth in OPS over the past two weeks — can give him trouble.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Rangers 3, Yankees 0

• Good Nathan Eovaldi has entered the chat.
• Nathan Eovaldi kicked much ass on Wednesday afternoon.
• A much needed outing, given the bumpiness of recent performances.
• And I mean, really, Nate wasn’t going to let himself get outdueled by some dude named Elmer, right?
• Seven Ks, just one walk, seven innings. 20 swinging strikes on 102 pitches.
• Eovaldi largely stayed away from his fastball (thrown 10 times out of 102 pitches) and his sinker (5 times), going with a splitter/cutter/curveball mix. 12 of his swings and misses came on the splitter, 6 on the cutter.
• Eovaldi’s ERA on the year is now 4.76, with a 4.38 xERA.
• Big ups to Jacob Latz for the two inning save. Woo Jakey L!!!!!!!!
• This is the third shutout for the Rangers this year, and the first time they’ve shut out a team other than the Mariners.
• Offensively, a day after the Rangers were 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position, Texas went 4 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Not surprisingly, that led to more runs.
• Only three, which isn’t ideal, but still.
• Josh Jung continues to carry the team on his back, as a bases loaded single in the fifth brought home the Rangers’ first two runs, breaking a scoreless tie.
• Jung is now slashing .317/.381/.545 on the season.
• Brandon Nimmo had an infield single to load the bases right before the Jung single, and ended up leaving the game for Sam Haggerty due to a hamstring issue, so apparently we had to sacrifice Brandon Nimmo to get runs scored.
• Nimmo, fortunately, is believed to be day-to-day, so hopefully he’ll be in the lineup at some point this weekend in Detroit.
• Haggerty, meanwhile, singled home the third run of the game in the seventh, so good job, Sam!
• Ezequiel Duran, getting the rare start against a righthander, was 2 for 2 with a double and a walk, raising his slash line on the season to .288/.354/.424.
• Duran has been splitting time in left field with Alejandro Osuna during Wyatt Langford’s absence. Langford is expected to be activated this weekend at some point, however, which will result in Osuna going back to AAA and Langford taking over the left field role.
• With Josh Smith’s current struggles, however, Duran could end up getting more playing time at second base.
• Nathan Eovaldi topped out at 95.6 mph with his fastball, averaging 94.5 mph. Jacob Latz touched 96.6 mph with his fastball.
• Joc Pederson had a 105.1 mph ground out and a 103.9 mph fly out. Corey Seager had a 102.8 mph GIDP. Jake Burger had a 100.8 mph ground out.
• Heading into an off day with a victory is always a good thing.

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This afternoon is loaded with ball games, and my top MLB player props have you covered for the action Thursday, April 30.

My two favorite MLB picks feature Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez, and Philadelphia Phillies favorite Bryce Harper in favorable pitching matchups today.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	Over 1.5 total bases	-102
Bryce Harper	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-105
Andrew Abbott	Over 4.5 strikeouts	-145

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-102)

It’s been a rough start for Baltimore Orioles righty Chris Bassitt, with his 6.75 ERA reinforced by a 6.25 xFIP, a monster .472 wOBA, and .246 ISO to left-handed hitters. Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez has posted .463 wOBA and .338 ISO against right-handed arms this season, and he’s teed off on Bassitt for five home runs across 25 at-bats with a monster 1.598 OPS.

• Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, SCHN

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105)

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper is heating up to go Over the number in this market in five of his past seven games with six runs, seven hits, and eight RBI, and he’s put up a rock-solid .407 wOBA against righties for the year.

This is also a soft pitching matchup with San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb searching for answers on the mound. He’s surrendered a beefy 49.1% hard-hit rate, and left-handed hitters have squared off for a .372 wOBA. Harper has also launched a pair of home runs against Webb while going 4-for-8 at the dish.

• Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, NBCSBA

Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 strikeouts (-145)

With the Colorado Rockies sporting a 22nd-ranked wOBA and striking out at the second-highest clip against lefties, this is a solid bounce-back opportunity for Cincinnati Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott.

There’s no sugarcoating Abbott's poor start, but he’s set to improve on his unsustainable .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate, and his 8.3 K/9 and 22.2 K% across his first 75 career starts are well above his respective 5.97 and 14.3% marks to start 2026. Simply put, the Reds' lefty has sunnier days ahead. 

• Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, COLR

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Yankees picked up their fourth consecutive series win, taking the first two games from the Rangers at Globe Life Field. The offense may have gotten on the plane back to New York early as they got shut out by Nathan Eovaldi in the series finale, but they can still be proud of a 7-2 showing on the road trip. All three games in Arlington turned into tense affairs, including on Tuesday night with Fernando Cruz on in relief.

We join Cruz facing former Yankees farmhand Ezequiel Duran in a high leverage jam in the bottom of the eighth. There are runners on first and second after he surrendered a Josh Jung single and Corey Seager walk to open the frame. However, he’s gotten two outs on a force out by Joc Pederson followed by a strikeout of Jake Burger to put him three strikes away from escaping this sticky situation.

After giving up the Jung single on a first-pitch four-seamer, it appeared that Cruz resolved to only throw his splitter for the rest of the inning.

This one is a doozy, looking like a low strike out of Cruz’s hand before falling off the table. He makes Duran look silly on a pitch that bounces just beyond home plate, the hitter clearly not expecting something off-speed to start the AB.

After Cruz induces such a wild swing and miss, Austin Wells sets a target in the exact same location looking to see if they can extract the same result.

I’m not certain that Cruz intended to throw this pitch here for a called strike — in fact as the age-old mantra “see it low, let it go; see it high, let it fly,” tells us, you generally do not want to throw your splitter up in the zone because those pitches can get launched a mile. However, it achieved the desired result, Duran giving up early on a pitch that looks high above the zone only for the late downward tilt to nip the top edge of the zone for the strike looking. The added bonus of landing your offspeed in the zone for a called strike is changing the hitter’s eye level, opening a lot more opportunity later in the AB for chase out of the zone.

Cruz immediately has the count leverage firmly in his favor, 0-2, and is just a strike away from escaping the jam unscathed. Duran has already shown a willingness to chase the splitter below the zone — Cruz just needs to execute a similar pitch to the first one he threw.

Cruz executes his pitch to the spot he intends, Duran just does a good job to adjust his bat-path mid-swing to spoil the splitter foul. If we’re being nitpicky, Cruz would ideally like this pitch about six inches lower in a location where Duran cannot make contact, but there was no harm done as the count remains 0-2.

It must be obvious to Duran at this point that Cruz is going to keep spamming splitters until he gets the out or Duran gets on base. It’s one thing knowing what pitch is coming, but Cruz’s splitter is so nasty with such late and abrupt downward movement that you’d be hard-pressed to do damage even knowing that it is coming.

Cruz rips off an absolute beauty of a splitter to finish off the AB. The pitch is on the bottom edge of the zone so Duran has to swing, but he’s nowhere close to making contact, whiffing to strand the base runners at first and second.

Here’s the full sequence:

While the approach of throwing 16 straight splitters after the Jung leadoff single worked for Cruz in this case, you’d feel a lot more comfortable if Cruz had at least one more pitch that he trusted. The four-seamer is getting clobbered so far this season so you would think Cruz is the ideal candidate to incorporate the sinker that is doing the rounds across almost the entire Yankees pitching room. He’s never really trusted his slider in his two seasons in pinstripes despite the pitch exhibiting the eighth-most horizontal break vs. average of any slider in MLB. I feel that establishing a comfort level with one or both of those pitches can give Cruz another weapon while also increasing the effectiveness of the splitter.

The Yankees bullpen outside of Tim Hill has not done much to inspire a ton of confidence through the first month of games. Jake Bird throws too many of his breaking balls down the middle, you can reliably pencil Camilo Doval to give up a homer every appearance, and even David Bednar is an exhausting, edge-of-disaster experience closing out games. Cruz walks entirely too many batters (almost 18-percent!) to feel comfortable as the designated setup man. But if he can find another pitch he can reliably throw for strikes without getting crushed to set up the splitter, I’d feel a lot better about him in the eighth inning.

I’ve always been fascinated by disasters: Hurricanes, tornadoes, the Hindenburg, Titanic, 9/11, wars, engineering failures, the list goes on. The bigger this disaster, the more I’m drawn to it. They’re compelling not only because of the long list of factors that usually have to line up to cause the catastrophe, but also because they provide a blueprint into how to prepare for the next one, or even outright prevent it.

So I guess it’s rather perfect that I’m a fan of the Boston Red Sox. Few organizations in sports do disaster quite like this one. Even after four World Series titles in the John Henry era, this team still has that thing in their DNA that when they start going bad, things explode in spectacular and catastrophic fashion.

This April has been a special level of disaster across the board, and one of the disasters within the disaster has been Brayan Bello. I mean, what the hell is going on with this guy? He was a competent starter just last summer, and now he’s a straight up arsonist on the mound.

Yesterday, he went into the game against the Blue Jays with a 9.00 ERA, and it went UP! And if that wasn’t enough to raise your blood pressure, he pouted all the way off the mound when Chad Tracy went to go get him in an attempt to keep the game in hand (although some would argue that with this offense the score was already insurmountable).

There have been so many hideous surprises with the Sox this year that I don’t think we’ve really gotten enough time to fully digest how insanely terrible Brayan Bello has been out of the gate. It’s been one gutless performance after the next, and it usually comes attached with an attitude that’s been almost as lousy as the pitching.

In six starts, he has the second highest ERA of any Red Sox starter through that many games in a season in franchise history. He’s failed to make it through the five innings in all but one outing, he completely lost track of the count in the game in Houston, and the team has a run differential of negative 20 in his starts.

If you want to go back even further, this garbage started in his outing in the postseason last October against the Yankees when he was bounced after just 2.1 innings in a sneaky bleak and borderline abysmal performance. As I wrote in January about that game when I wanted to trade him:

Bello faced just 11 batters, failed to get five of them out, didn’t strike out a soul, couldn’t keep Ben Rice in the ballpark, and was largely saved from complete disaster by an Anthony Volpe double play in the second inning, and Alex Cora’s quick hook in the third.

This is crazy to think about when you consider Bello had a 3.32 ERA last year and made it through at least five innings in 23 of his 28 starts. Now he’s so terrible and unreliable, the Sox need to find a way to get him out of the rotation as soon as possible before he can do any more damage. He’s not just losing games, he’s making them completely unwinnable even if most of the rest of the roster would happen to do their job.

But of course, because this is Red Sox baseball and they’re prone to disasters, they pretty much have to let Brayan Bello make his next start with Garrett Crochet going on IL. Since the rotation is also without Johan Oviedo, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Tyler Uberstine and has to wait until May 6th before Sonny Gray is eligible to come off the IL, it creates this really annoying dynamic over the next five games if you want to get Brayan Bello out of the rotation.

If you assume Jake Bennett makes his major league debut on Friday at Fenway and then the other three healthy starters just follow suit, it leaves you one game short of getting back to Gray’s date. Here’s how it breaks down with Bello having to fill that May 5th game in Detroit.

This is really annoying because with the off day today, it feels like there should be some way to manipulate things and get Bello off the carousel, but short of a rainout, there’s just one too many games to cover.

So it would seem the only other option here would be to go with a bullpen game since Bello pretty much makes every game he starts a mini bullpen game anyway, right?

Well, not exactly. If you take a look at the how opposing starters are lining up for the next handful of games, the Red Sox are once again likely to catch reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal on the Monday, May 4th game. This presents Boston with a unique opportunity to pull off an Art of War trick by using today’s off day to move up Brayan Bello’s next start to Monday where he’d still be on normal rest. (And really, rest should be no problem because he only lasted 63 pitches in Wednesday’s atrocious outing anyway.)

I mean, if you likely to lose any game of that Detroit series where Skubal or Bello starts, why not put them on the same day? If your opponent has an Ace of Spades on the table, you might as well throw out your two of clubs if you have that option. Wouldn’t you much rather lose that Monday game 13-1 and reset things for the rest of the series instead of losing 3-2 on Monday and then something like 12-5 on Tuesday?

Also, Brayan Bello kind of deserves to be fed to the lions — Or I guess Tigers in this case. You put your teammates in a horrible situation time and time again? How about we put you in a horrible situation and make you face Skubal?

After that, if he stinks again and Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle look decent (with both guys going on extra rest in this proposed pitching plan), you can use one of the two options Bello has left and send his unreliable butt down the Mass Pike to Worcester.

After playing 13 straight games, the Dodgers off day couldn’t come at a better time. The offense specifically needs time to regroup. After scoring a total of 22 runs against the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, the Dodgers manages just eight runs total against the Miami Marlins, in which the Fish won 2-of-3 games at Dodger Stadium for the first time since 2018.

“I don’t think we’re collectively swinging the bats the way we were early,” Roberts said. “Sort of started in Colorado, I think. It’s one of those things where hitting is definitely cyclical. In total, we we’re at the top, near the top. The last 10 days, it just hasn’t been synced up. We just haven’t got those hits when we needed them.”

Cyclical is one way to put it. The Dodgers seemed like maybe they got their bats going in the hour game series at Coors Field, only to have them go cold again in San Francisco. Then they erupted again against the Cubs, and went flat against the Marlins.

Taking into account the pitchers they were facing, the Dodgers just haven’t had consistent, patient at bats. That is one of the tactics the Marlins deployed against the Dodgers, patience and working their at bats.

Even as the Marlins did their best to styme the Dodgers pitching staff, they only scored nine runs total over the series. An offense as high powered as the Dodgers’ should have had no problem scoring more than them in at least two if not all of the games.

Doug Padilla of the OC Register covers many of the ways the Dodgers are currently slumping at the plate.

Freddie Freeman is one of the Dodgers currently most Going Through It. In his last seven games, Freeman has as many strikeouts as he has hits. He also owns a .138 BA over that same time span.

“I would have fixed it by now if I knew,” he said through gritted teeth when asked what the problem was. “I had pitches to hit. I just didn’t hit ’em. I mean, I had strikes, I swung at the strikes, I didn’t hit the strikes, so…”

Freeman’s at bat in the bottom of the ninth resulted in a bizarre double play which ended the game in the Marlins’ favor. Just another, albeit odd, example of the Dodgers leaving multiple men in scoring position.

Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times details other players that are also slumping, which unfortunately right now seems to be most of the lineup.

The Dodgers are hoping that the upcoming road trip to St. Louis and Houston will help their offense get back on track, and back up their pitching staff who has been holding up their end of the bargain.