Clay Holmes made his Cubs debut against the Royals on Saturday. It probably wasn’t the box score line he was looking for, but seeing as it was his first start since taking a comebacker that broke his leg in mid-May, it was perfectly fine. He threw four innings, giving up four runs (all earned) on six hits while walking two and striking out one. Here’s more about that outing directly from Holmes:
Even if there are a few starts where Holmes needs to shake the rust off like his first outing, the Cubs clearly see something in his arsenal that should work well with their elite defense. Today let’s dive into the numbers behind this trade that sent one of their top prospects back to the Mets in Jefferson Rojas.
The arsenal
Holmes is your classic sinker ball pitcher. He throws his sinker, which averages 94 miles per hour, about 50 percent of the time. You know what that means: ground balls. You don’t even really have to squint to see what the Cubs front office sees in this move: ground balls with an elite defense are more likely to be outs. You can see all of Holmes’ pitches along with their velocity in this screengrab from Baseball Savant:
This is a pitcher who tinkers a bit. There have been changes to his arsenal over the last few years, but it’s mainly in how much he throws a certain pitch. The biggest thing to look at in Holmes’ pitches is that his role shifted considerably from 2024, when he was an elite reliever with the Yankees to 2025 when he became a credible starter with the Mets. You can see how Holmes’ pitch mix has changed over time below:
The stats
Holmes can tinker all he wants if he winds up with ground ball rates like the ones he’s had over the past few seasons for the Cubs. These numbers were truly eye-popping to me. I ran a FanGraphs leaderboard for every pitcher’s ground ball rates since 2021 split by season for pitchers with at least 50 innings a season. Holmes has four of the top 15 seasons out of 1961 total seasons (yes, really). His worst ground ball rate (2025 with the Mets) is still in the top 10 percent, ranking 119th. There is elite in a single season and then there is elite over time. Holmes is elite over time, and I am dreaming on the double plays he’s going to have turned behind him already. You can see key stats from his last six seasons below:
Season
Name
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
xERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
2021
Clay Holmes
– – –
8
4
0
69
0
70
10.03
3.73
0.64
.273
68.35%
68.72%
15.63%
3.60
2.91
3.28
3.16
1.1
2022
Clay Holmes
NYY
7
4
20
62
0
63.2
9.19
2.83
0.28
.262
74.44%
75.76%
10.00%
2.54
2.40
2.85
2.90
1.2
2023
Clay Holmes
NYY
4
4
24
66
0
63
10.14
3.29
0.29
.301
74.12%
65.45%
7.14%
2.86
2.84
2.65
2.97
1.6
2024
Clay Holmes
NYY
3
5
30
67
0
63
9.71
3.14
0.57
.322
70.53%
64.97%
11.76%
3.14
3.25
3.02
3.01
1.2
2025
Clay Holmes
NYM
12
8
0
33
31
165.2
7.01
3.59
0.76
.280
74.02%
55.76%
10.53%
3.53
4.33
4.11
4.25
1.9
2026
Clay Holmes
– – –
4
5
0
10
10
56.2
7.31
3.18
0.64
.259
79.80%
57.93%
9.30%
2.86
4.22
3.50
3.73
1.1
Select stats
Holmes isn’t going to strike out a large number of batters (although he’ll probably strike out more than one every four innings like his Cubs debut) but he also isn’t going to walk a bunch of batters. His hard hit rate was up to 44.8 percent before the injury with the Mets, which is certainly something to keep an eye on going forward. He did give up eight hard hit balls against the Royals, but honestly more than half of that was Jac Caglianone having the game of his life, so I’m not terribly worried about that as a trend going forward. The Cubs are banking on Holmes limiting the walks and and turning those ground balls, hard hit or not, into outs.
The return
This was the most groan-inducing return in what was generally a great trade deadline for the Cubs front office. Pitching was expensive, and admittedly, the Cubs also got Tyrone Taylor (more on him later this week) in this deal. However, Jefferson Rojas was a top prospect in the Cubs system for a reason. Don’t just take it from me, here’s what FanGraphs most recent write-up of the 21-year-old says:
Rojas had a monster half-season at High-A in 2025, walking nearly as often as he struck out and slashing 278/.379/.492. While it was his second spin through the level, his look on both sides of the ball was enough for us to elevate him into the Top 100 in the middle of the year and hold him there through the offseason despite a really rough late-season performance at Double-A Knoxville.
Back with the Smokies to start 2026, Rojas has produced a great early-season statline but has been striking out much more than is usual for him, albeit in a very small sample made all the smaller by time off for a minor thumb issue for which he was not placed on the IL. In the days preceding his shutdown, he was very error-prone on defense (flubs, throwing inaccuracy). While Rojas isn’t going to win any Gold Gloves (his range and hands are only fair), he has the body control and arm strength to make up for his shortcomings, and he projects to stay at shortstop.
On offense, Rojas has tended to be an above-average contact hitter with excellent plate coverage. He’s frequently geared to pull and was swinging inside a lot of sliders in the lead up to list publication, but this wasn’t an issue for him last year, when he had roughly average chase and miss rates against righty slide pieces. While he’ll occasionally get extended on a pitch away from him and drive it to right field, most of Rojas’ contact is directed toward the left field foul pole, where he hooks lots of doubles and potential homers. Though he’s young, Rojas is already a pretty physical guy, and he isn’t likely to add substantial strength without it nerfing some of his mobility on defense. Here he projects to have an average hit/power combo seasoned by plus plate discipline, which should be enough for him to play every day at shortstop. His timeline — we’re looking at a post-2026 40-man addition and (slow playing it) a 2028 debut — overlaps with the team’s other infielders enough that Rojas should be considered a prime trade candidate, especially if the Cubs’ hot start is a true indication of their contender status.
Takeaways
As I said in my grading the trade deadline article, the problem isn’t that the Cubs moved Rojas, it’s that the return for a prospect of Rojas’ caliber used to be controllable starting pitching rather than rentals. To put this in perspective, Rojas was immediately FanGraphs’ top prospect in the Mets organization and while prospects aren’t promises this could be a kid we all watch in the All-Star Game someday and bemoan the Cubs front office giving him up for rentals. The flip side of that is that the Cubs have a shot to win it all now, and those seasons are precious. Props to Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins for going for it this trade deadline. I think we’d all rather sigh watching Rojas slug against the Cubs in 2028 than sigh watching the Cubs fall one pitcher and a right-handed bat short of winning the NLCS in 2026.
There’s currently no timeline on Rushing’s return, as it will depend on whether the 25-year-old backstop will need to get surgery to fix the elbow tear.
If Rushing does need surgery, it will mean his 2026 season is over. But he doesn’t believe that will be necessary, which he made very clear on Monday.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Dalton Rushing (68) scores a run against the Los Angeles Angels. Wally Skalij for CA Post
“I don’t have to go lay on a table and get my arm cut open. That’s a good thing. That’s where we’re at right now,” Rushing said on Monday night, per The Athletic.
He added that doctors are, “not worried about anything structurally right now,” which is a big reason why he’s optimistic about not needing surgery.
Any degree of torn UCL in their throwing arms almost certainly means surgery and a nine to 12-month recovery for a pitcher. But because position players aren’t so dependent on throwing (especially when it comes to velocity), they can sometimes play through the injury, or at least delay when they need to get surgery and return to the field.
Los Angeles could use Rushing back in their lineup as soon as possible, given that their starting catcher, Will Smith, has been on the 60-day injured list since June with an inflamed disc in his neck. But it seems that Smith close be nearing a return in the relatively near future.
Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing catches a ball during the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners on July 30, 2026. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/Shutterstock
The Dodgers have lose eight of their past 10 games but still hold a commanding 7.5 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West.
Los Angeles, - July 11: Pitcher Blake Snell #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers works out on the mound prior to a baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Snell who is is currently on the 60-day injured list recovering from elbow surgery as he underwent an operation in mid-May to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images
LOS ANGELES — For the third consecutive season, Blake Snell is returning from an injury in the second half of the season. He’ll be activated off the 60-day injured list on Tuesday to start against the Kansas City Royals, and the Dodgers are looking for another strong finishing kick, which has become the norm for Snell.
“The goal is five and 75, but to get him through five innings would be great,” manager Dave Roberts said Monday. “I think if we could get him through five [Tuesday], which would be great and which he expects, we should be able to treat him like a normal starter, given that he has an extra day or two between those starts.”
Snell’s talent has been evident for his entire career, but staying on the field hasn’t been his hallmark. Of his 11 major league season he’s reached 130 innings twice, and won a Cy Young Award in both seasons — 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays and 2023 with the San Diego Padres.
In 2025, the first season of Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers, he only made 11 regular season starts, and won’t quite reach that number this year. But the Dodgers are more concerned about Snell being one of their postseason rotation anchors, as he was last year with three Game 1 starts, a 3.18 ERA and a Dodgers postseason record with 41 strikeouts.
Strong finishes have been an annual tradition for Snell of late, usually after returning from injury. In 2024 with the San Francisco Giants Snell was sidelined by a left groin strain, last year with the Dodgers was shoulder inflammation, and this year the last three months were spent rehabbing from May arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow to remove loose bodies.
“It’s been a long season for me. I can’t wait to getting back to pitching and figuring everything out again, just seeing how good I can be,” Snell told Kirsten Watson on SportsNet LA over the weekend in Arizona. “I only have so many games to see that, so I’m excited to get good really quickly and help the team win.”
Here are Snell’s finishing kicks for those seasons, plus his 2023 Cy Young Award season:
“I feel very confident. I had a good conversation with him [Sunday], and he’s on a mission,” Roberts said of Snell. “I like when great, talented players have that mindset. He hasn’t unfortunately been a part of this whole season, but from here on out it’s a sprint, and he’s very focused.”
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 10: Josh Hader #71 of the Houston Astros pitches against the San Francisco Giants ninth inning at Oracle Park on August 10, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thien-An Truong/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The latest news and notes about the Houston Astros:
Josh Hader pitched more than 1 inning for the first time this season, something that at the beginning of the year, Astros manager Joe Espada said he would not do this season:
Josh Hader, who threw 11 pitches in the ninth inning, is back out for the 10th. It is his first multi-inning appearance since his return from injury.
Josh Hader had not pitched two innings since returning in June but did so Monday in a key development for the Astros' playoff chase. https://t.co/6zluaXyidE
Yordan Alvarez continues to climb the Astros record books (he would go on to pass Gurriel with a single in the 6th):
This was the 866th hit of Yordan Alvarez's career, tying him with fellow Cuban Yuli Gurriel for 21st place on the Astros organization's all-time list. pic.twitter.com/kXZb4xt7Vz
LeBron James is expected to make his debut with the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, October 20, at Madison Square Garden, where the Sixers will face the defending champion New York Knicks on the opening night of the 2026 NBA season.
"This is my last decision. I’m not going for money. I’m not going for family. What am I really playing for at this point? I still want to sacrifice. I still want to work. I still want to grind. I still want to compete, to win, and to have a chance at the feeling of winning another championship," James said in a thread on X on July 24.
"I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team, and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time."
The 2026 NBA season tips off with a tripleheader on NBC and Peacock, featuring a star-studded lineup. First at 3:00 PM ET, Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics face Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons. Then at 7:00 PM, Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks receive their championship rings before hosting James, Jaylen Brown, and the 76ers at the Garden. At 9:30 PM, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder go head-to-head with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in a rematch of the 2026 Western Conference Finals.
See below for additional information on how to watch the 2026 NBA season on NBC and Peacock.
With the rollout of the 2026-27 NBA schedule, the league will again take its game overseas with a two games in Europe and one in Mexico, all of which were previously announced in May.
The first game is set Jan. 14, 2027 at Accor Arena in Paris, in what should be a boisterous homecoming for Wembanyama. The rematch will take place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, on Jan. 17. The last time the NBA played a regular-season game in Paris was in January 2025 when the Spurs and the Indiana Pacers split their two-game series.
The NBA is also returning to Mexico for a regular-season contest that will pit three-time league MVP Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets against two-time All-Star Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers on Nov. 7 at Mexico City Arena in Mexico City. It will be the 16th regular-season contest played in the country.
The league will return to Paris and Berlin for regular-season games in the 2027-28 season.
According to Batters-Box’s current-season dataset, Johnson draws a Rangers lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating, making Texas the highest-rated offense and the only elite-rated team on today’s slate.
The Angels starter has posted a 7.25 ERA, 6.34 xERA and 1.66 WHIP over his last five starts. During that span, opposing hitters have also generated a 14.5% barrel rate against him.
In 198 games with a rating of at least 0.445, the Rangers have scored 4+ runs 56.1% of the time dating back to 2024. While that number covers an entire game, the underlying data starts with the opposing starting pitcher.
The superstar pitcher has struggled a ton against left-handed hitters. Over the last 60 lefties Skenes has faced, they are generating a 52% hard-hit rate, 14% barrel rate, and 65.5% elevation rate. During that stretch, those lefties have posted a .386 xBA, .670 xSLG, and .399 wOBA. Over the last 30 he has faced, those numbers are even worse.
Conine has been swinging it well over his last 10 games, posting a .257 ISO, 45% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 80% elevation rate.
The young outfielder enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box while also covering over 77% of Skenes' pitches. In 20 games with an elite rating this season, he has surpassed this prop 60% of the time.
Win or lose, this is a great bet. Play this to -150, or bet Conine's hit prop down to -120.
The superstar enters tonight with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while also covering over 60% of Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett’s pitch mix. Over his last 25 elite ratings on the road, Caminero has surpassed this prop 60% of the time.
Barnett has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 66.7% elevation rate to right-handed hitters at home this season. Over his last 60 batters faced, those hitters are producing a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate and 66.7% elevation rate. They also own a .333 xBA, .559 xSLG and .278 ISO during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Caminero has posted a .632 SLG and .395 ISO, while generating a 57% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
I'd play this down to -130 if you're willing to pay the juice, or bet his home run and double props individually.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: RAYS, NBCSCA
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 381-747, -19.9 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 09: Trent Grisham #12 talks to Heliot Ramos #34 and Spencer Jones #78 of the New York Yankees during the game against the Atlanta Braves at Yankee Stadium on August 9, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This roadtrip has loomed large since last year, when the schedule first came out. Regardless of how the standings would look, we knew a nine-game slate against the Yankees, Astros and Brewers would be brutal. A year and change later, it’s still scary, but the silver lining of the 50th Flop is that it’s deadened much of the terror. I won’t speak for everyone, but this weekend I personally released my remaining hope (and subsequent frustrations) like a small coterie of bedraggled, mostly flightless pigeons. As a friend pointed out yesterday, going 3-6 on this trip would feel like a big win. We’ve written plenty on this site about the power and beauty of holding hope and expectations, but at this point, with what this team has shown, it’s freeing to look at each remaining game as simply a day with baseball.
I don’t know, dude. They’re the Yankees, what more do you want me to say? They’ve won a lot of baseball games. Not as many as they have in the past, and definitely not as many as the Rays, which has to annoy them, but mostly is just messing up the Wild Card race.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Trent Grisham
CF
L
390
16.9%
12.3%
0.178
98
Ben Rice
DH
L
483
25.1%
12.0%
0.288
148
Heliot Ramos
LF
R
327
27.2%
5.5%
0.157
97
Luis García Jr.
1B
L
395
15.7%
4.6%
0.271
132
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2B
L
431
31.1%
10.0%
0.180
92
Spencer Jones
RF
L
133
35.3%
11.3%
0.178
94
George Lombard Jr. (MiLB)
SS
R
358
21.2%
16.8%
0.215
140
Ryan McMahon
3B
L
283
30.4%
7.8%
0.160
84
Austin Wells
C
L
268
26.5%
11.2%
0.124
63
I look forward to the 2044 court case, when Aaron Judge sues Ben Rice for siphoning his health this season. With Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton all shelved with various maladies, the Yankees focused on bringing in some potent bats at the trade deadline. They added Luis García Jr. and Heliot Ramos and called up their top prospect George Lombard Jr. García is in the midst of a huge power breakout this year and Lombard should be the shortstop of the future after Anthony Volpe flamed out.
The new man in the starting rotation, Ryan Weathers is a product of the Marlins pitching development pipeline. He’s struggled with a bunch of different injuries over the last few years but none of them have required surgery. His raw stuff leveled up during spring training last year, adding a tick of velocity to his entire repertoire and adding a ton of movement to his changeup and sweeper. We didn’t get to see that revamped arsenal in action for very long before a lat strain derailed his season. His raw stuff was even more impressive this spring; his fastball was regularly touching 99 mph, which would make him one of the hardest throwing left-handed pitchers in all of baseball. His two secondary pitches are fantastic at generating whiffs and he’s confident enough with his changeup to use it against both righties and lefties. There’s a lot of unfulfilled promise with Weathers — he’s yet to prove that he can stay healthy and that all this raw stuff can produce outs regularly — but he’ll get an opportunity to prove it all with the Yankees this year.
Weathers has had a bit of an up-and-down season for the Yankees, but he’s stayed healthy and has posted back-to-back scoreless outings. In his first start of the season way back in April, he held the Mariners to just a single run in 4.1 innings, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out seven.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Will Warren
114
23.0%
7.5%
12.7%
43.3%
4.18
3.85
Bryce Miller
79
25.8%
4.9%
13.1%
37.8%
3.08
3.83
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
35.3%
38.7%
93.7
110
96
96
0.298
Sinker
36.7%
18.6%
93.3
103
137
104
0.360
Changeup
0.9%
20.4%
87.0
97
99
123
0.259
Curveball
1.7%
7.4%
81.3
106
Sweeper
25.5%
14.9%
84.1
97
63
82
0.399
Thanks to the injury to Gerrit Cole last spring, Will Warren earned a spot in the Yankees rotation out of the gate last year and posted a solid first full season in the big leagues. His 4.44 ERA was a bit higher than his 4.07 FIP, but his peripherals gave him a solid foundation to build off of. This year, he’s taken a small step forward. His ERA and FIP are still a little out of sync, but he’s cut his walk rate by nearly two points while maintaining his excellent strikeout rate. His low arm slot gives his pitches plenty of horizontal movement and his four-seam adds a generous amount of ride for his arm angle. He’s got a pretty good sweeper to pair with his fastball, but it can get hit around a bit, especially by left-handed batters.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Max Fried
81.1
24.0%
8.0%
1.4%
48.5%
2.88
2.40
Logan Gilbert
139.1
26.4%
5.8%
11.9%
37.7%
3.42
3.57
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
18.8%
17.8%
95.0
102
102
112
0.259
Sinker
14.1%
45.1%
93.2
108
126
121
0.268
Cutter
28.1%
7.0%
91.9
101
121
120
0.226
Changeup
16.2%
0.7%
85.6
102
94
78
0.241
Curveball
14.9%
7.3%
73.9
118
87
125
0.218
Slider
1.1%
2.8%
84.4
Sweeper
6.9%
19.2%
80.1
110
78
139
0.178
From a previous series preview:
After signing a massive eight-year free agent deal with the Yankees in December 2024, Max Fried posted one of the best seasons of his career in New York. His velocity was up two ticks and he rejiggered his pitch mix to emphasize his cutter against right-handed batters. With two fantastic breaking balls, a solid changeup, and three different fastball looks, he’s got a weapon for any situation. If he needs a swing and miss, he’ll turn to one of the best curveballs in baseball. If he needs a groundball out, he’ll go to his sinker or changeup. That deep repertoire paired with excellent command makes him one of the toughest pitchers to face in the AL.
A bone bruise on his throwing elbow interrupted Max Fried’s season in May. He missed a month and a half of the season but recently returned from the IL at the end of July. He’s leaned pretty heavily on his cutter this year and it’s been one of the most effective pitches in the majors. Back in April, he held the Mariners scoreless across seven innings, allowing just three hits while striking out six.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Astros
61-59
0.508
—
-25
L-W-L-L-W
Rangers
60-59
0.504
0.5
-33
W-W-W-L-W
Mariners
56-63
0.471
4.5
-19
W-L-L-L-L
Athletics
47-72
0.395
13.5
-168
L-L-W-W-L
Angels
45-74
0.378
15.5
-94
W-W-L-L-L
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Yankees
66-52
0.559
+7.0
+82
W-L-W-W-L
Red Sox
64-54
0.542
+4.5
+83
W-W-L-L-L
Rangers
60-59
0.504
—
-30
W-W-W-L-W
Tigers
58-60
0.492
1.5
+87
L-W-L-W-W
Twins
59-61
0.492
1.5
-31
W-W-L-L-W
Guardians
58-61
0.487
2.0
-27
L-L-W-L-L
Don’t look at this. That’s not healthy. Maybe leave this alone for a little bit. We can check back before they go to Houston, maybe.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 04: Chairman and CEO John Sherman of the Kansas City Royals is seen prior to a game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on September 04, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country.
Earlier this week, John Sherman sat down for a recorded interview with Josh Vernier of 96.5 FM The Fan. During the course of the interview, Sherman provided something of a state of the union address for the team. Royals Rundown covered it extensively in their latest podcast, but the aspect I want to focus on today is his assertion that J.J. Picollo’s assertion that the team intends to compete next year is accurate.
I was heartened by the fact that Sherman seemed to acknowledge the amount of work the team needs to do in order to achieve that goal. He noted that they only have three healthy starting pitchers under contract, that the bullpen needs a complete overhaul, and the lineup probably needs an addition or two. However, he also seemed to take for granted that the team would be healthier and that the younger players would continue to get better.
He also indicated that the team believes they can improve the bullpen without spending a lot of money. It’s true that very good relievers can often be had at low cost and that even the expensive relievers can have bad years. Check out the Dodgers’ attempts to fortify their own bullpen last year with Tanner Scott and this year with Edwin Díaz. And finding five or more (definitely more) relievers in a single offseason is a big task. To say nothing of making the other changes. The Mets tried to do a similarly-sized overhaul of their own team in the past offseason, and they’re one of the few teams nearly as bad as the Royals this year.
Still, Sherman said the team knew it would have to spend some serious money, especially in the rotation. Does that mean they’ll be in the running for Tarik Skubal or Casey Mize? Only time will tell. Either way, are you feeling better after hearing him speak?
COLUMBUS, OHIO - JUNE 18, 2026: Yanquiel Fernández #51 and Oswaldo Cabrera #95 of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders look on during the eighth inning against the Columbus Clippers at Huntington Park on June 18, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
We’ve reached a big part of the minor league calendar, as this past week marked the debuts of eight members of the Yankees’ 2026 draft class in A-ball, which also coincided with a number of position player promotions. While the prep bats and all pitchers will likely be held back until 2027, it’s a great time to get to see these newbies in action.
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Record: 24-13 (61-50), 0.5 GA in the International League East after a 2-4 week against the Rochester Red Wings (Nationals)
Run differential: +43 (+46)
Coming up: Away @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies)
The RailRiders’ eight-game winning streak unceremoniously ended with a dominant week by Rochester, slowing the momentum of a team that has been one of the best in Triple-A for several weeks. Scranton lost four consecutive games by a total of 29 runs from Wednesday to Saturday before rallying back from a late deficit to salvage the series finale on Sunday.
Deadline reinforcements by the Yankees have a trickle-down effect on the Triple-A team, which has seen its roster utterly decimated by injuries, promotions, and opt-outs over the course of the season. With the recent demotions of Anthony Volpe, Jasson Domínguez, and Max Schuemann, however, they have as much offensive talent as you could ask for. All three came up big this week, with the former two both homering and the latter putting up two three-hit games. The recent signings of Christian Bethancourt (who has been red hot since joining the org) and veteran Mitch Garver only bolster it:
The RailRiders’ lineup took its lumps with injuries forcing call-ups and opt-outs, but things look as good as they’ve been all season for the current International League leaders. pic.twitter.com/kHA3O6BhYz
— Yankees Prospect Watch (@NYY_Prospects) August 7, 2026
Both of the games they won were tossed by the same man, as Brendan Beck got the bookend starts on Tuesday and Sunday and seemed to be the only RailRiders pitcher to slow down that Rochester offense, striking out a career-high 12 on Tuesday. None of the veterans held up in the other three starts, while Elmer Rodríguez’s recent stretch of strong starts came to a screeching halt with five walks in four choppy innings. We also saw Carlos Rodón get back on the mound on Saturday, but he was ineffective in 2.2 innings.
Overall, it was a nightmare week for the bullpen, with the exception of a strong week by Bradley Hanner, who’s probably the next man up in the Scranton Shuffle outside of Angel Chivilli, who also looked good in his one outing. Eric Reyzelman, Chris Kean, and Zach Messinger all struggled.
Record: 18-21 (55-53), 5 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 2-4 week against the Akron RubberDucks (Guardians)
Run differential: -14 (+22)
Coming up: Home vs. New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays)
It was a mess of a week for Somerset, who won back-to-back one-run games on Wednesday and Thursday before getting blasted in every other game, including a 14-run bludgeoning on Tuesday. For a team who’s shown such great highs, their lows are going to likely keep them out of the postseason.
The offense got a major boost this week with the promotion of resurgent 21-year-old prospect Roderick Arias, who’s been one of the best hitters in the system since the start of June. His first week in Double-A went well, as he went 9-for-25 with five RBI and three extra-base hits. His reduced strikeout rate has also been a major development. It was a good week for Josh Moylan (7-for-22, HR, 5 RBI, 4 XBH), Coby Morales, and DJ Gladney, who only missed a week with his prior injury.
Things didn’t go well for the starting rotation this week. Cade Smith got the bookend starts and struggled with command, allowing nine runs in nine innings. Chase Hampton’s (3 IP, 5 R) struggles continued, Ben Hess (4.2 IP, 6 R) had a rare blowup start, and Rory Fox’s (5.2 IP, 5 R) second Double-A start wasn’t one to remember. The one constant remains Xavier Rivas, who’s quickly pushing to be one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, tossing a quality start with six strikeouts.
You either had it or you didn’t this week in the bullpen. Michael Arias, Matt Keating, and Harrison Cohen certainly didn’t have it, but Kevin Stevens, Geoffrey Gilbert, and Hayden Merda did, with the latter tossing 3.1 scoreless innings with four strikeouts.
Record: 21-21 (51-55), 4 GB in the South Atlantic League North after a 4-2 week against the Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
Run differential: +28 (+37)
Coming up: Home vs. Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals)
The only full-season affiliate with a winning week, the Renegades rode some fresh faces to a strong offensive week, averaging 8.5 runs per game on the week. In the series finale on Sunday, they secured a series win with a 15-12 marathon victory in 12 innings that saw four combined home runs in extras. Fun!
The offense got an infusion of talent with the promotions of Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek and UDFA backstop David McCann, with the latter mashing three homers this week in what’s been a great debut season. The incumbents were also a big part of things, as Eric Genther (7-for-18, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 3 XBH) and Core Jackson (7-for-19, 6 BB, 3 XBH) had great weeks. We also saw a 2026 draft class sighting, as UDFA Maika Niu (5-for-12, HR, 7 RBI) and 20th-rounder Dean Toigo (5-for-14, 3 RBI, 2 XBH) made their pro debuts at the level, getting big hits. It was also an unbelievable week on the basepaths, as they went 31-for-31 on stolen bases as a team.
On the pitching end, it was up and down. Franyer Herrera had one of his worst outings of the year and Allen Facundo struggled with command despite nine strikeouts in 4.1 innings, but they got solid starts out of Bryce Cunningham (5 IP, 3 R), Sean Paul Liñan (4 IP, 1 R), and Luis Serna (5 IP, 0 R), while welcoming back 2025 fourth-rounder Pico Kohn back from a multi-month absence. He didn’t finish the third inning as he continues to build up, but it’s a good sign for a guy who the team needs to break out in 2027.
Record: 27-14 (59-42), 3.5 GA in the Florida State League West after a 3-3 week against the Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
Run differential: +52 (+75)
Coming up: Away @ Dunedin Blue Jays (Blue Jays)
Tampa still has not lost a series since mid-June, with that streak narrowly surviving against Clearwater after being swept in a Friday doubleheader before winning back-to-back games over the weekend to secure the split and keep them firmly in a playoff spot with a few weeks to go.
A large part of the offense that got them here has moved on to Hudson Valley, so in their place, they have the rookie ball call-ups that came up last week and six 2026 draftees, including fourth-rounder Paul Gutierrez-Contreras II and fifth-rounder Bear Harrison. The former flashed some extremely impressive exit velocities, while the latter had a few big hits. 11th-rounder Anthony Potestio (4-for-9, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB) performed best, Luis Puello had a clutch two-homer game late in the week, and Yostin Pena kept producing until a potential injury on Saturday; hold your breath.
In the rotation this week, nobody except J.T. Etheridge (0.2 IP, 3 R) left with anything to complain about. Sabier Marte (3.2 IP, 3 R) lagged behind, but everyone else looked good, even recent call-up Edinzo Marquez, who allowed one run in four innings after a spectacular return to the level last week. Tyler Boudreau (5.2 IP, 3 R) finished an out shy of a quality start, and Wyatt Parliament allowed just one run in five innings, but the star of the show was the six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts for Justin West in the best start of his brief professional career.
A few FCL call-ups made their Single-A debuts this week, with the best of the bunch being Rafael Arias’ 2.1 scoreless innings. The real storyline, though, was the return of converted catcher Antonio Gomez. Once considered one of the best defensive backstop prospects in recent memory, he’s since converted to a fireball reliever, throwing a truly alien fastball at 100 mph and 18 inches of induced vertical break. The 24-year-old might have an MLB career path after all.
🎙️Antonio Gomez makes 2026 debut….😮💨😮💨😮💨😮💨
Throws 6 pitches and Ks first 2: FB 99.6, FB 100, FB 99.8 CTR 88.5, FB 100.6, FB 100.7
DSL Yankees: Record: 29-19, 3 GB in DSL East after a 4-1 week Run differential: +124
DSL Bombers: Record: 21-27, 11.5 GB in DSL Southeast after a 1-3 week Run differential: +8
The DSL Yankees have the second-best run differential in the 60-team league, yet are currently 14th in winning percentage. Makes sense. They had a great week, headlined by truly ridiculous offensive performances by Juan Torres (12-for-21, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB, 2 SB, 1 2B) and Isaias Castillo, who is now one of five players in DSL history to hit 14+ home runs in a season. Torres, with seven games left, is now fifth all-time in RBIs by a DSL player. After several years of really struggling to find genuine talent in the D.R. complex, the Yankees are hitting home runs in 2026.
A truly special hitting season in the DSL this year.
Isaias Castillo has the franchise record in homers.
Yostin Pena was on pace to hammer the all-time DSL RBI record pre-promotion.
Juan Torres’ .388 BA would be the highest by a qualified DSL Yankee ever.
— Yankees Prospect Watch (@NYY_Prospects) August 8, 2026
Griffin Herring of the Hartford Yard Goats reacts during a Minor League Baseball game at TD Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater, United States, on July 1, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
After revealing the players who appeared on a single ballot yesterday, it’s time to write about some players that were named on multiple ballots but fell short from Honorable Mention Purple Row Prospect (HM PuRP) status in the pre-season 2026 voting. Today, I’ll reveal players who got support on anywhere from two and five ballots of the 29 cast in this edition of PuRPs voting. As you’ll see, it’s a group that’s littered with pre-season PuRPs who have been crowded out by newcomers to the system.
For each player, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), as well as notes on their 2026 season. For the sake of full disclosure, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the day the article is posted.
Multi-Ballot Players
56. Michael Prosecky(0.6 points, 2 ballots) — The 25-year-old lefty pitcher was the pre-season number 25 PuRP but he barely got consideration in the mid-season vote during a year in which he missed two months due to injury. Prosecky was a reliever in college for Louisville but transitioned to the rotation after signing for a $300k bonus in 2022 as a 6th rounder. As a prospect, Prosecky pairs a deceptive low to mid-90s fastball with a high spin rate curveball, slider, and change-up.
This season, Prosecky has largely been back in the bullpen in a return engagement with Double-A Hartford, where he is league-average age. He made three April relief appearances before spending two months on the shelf with an injury. After a short rehab with the ACL team, Prosecky has been back with Hartford, often pitching in multi-inning spurts. In all, Prosecky has made 12 appearances this year with Hartford, totaling 20.2 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 rate, and 5.7 BB/9 rate. That’s not going to stand out in a year in which Prosecky will again be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.
Prosecky is a fun watch. He’s a high-slot guy with a Bugs Bunny sinking change and a slow curve that practically takes a nap on its way to the plate. Arm strength is an ongoing concern here, as he touched 95 at times but was sitting in the upper 80s by the end of last season. His fastball doesn’t have bat-missing shape, but he does hide the ball well, so it’s a viable weapon if he can just keep it in the 90s. While his command isn’t bad, it isn’t sharp either, and the result is a lot of nibbling and more fastballs leaking over the heart of the plate than he can afford. It’s the skill set of a crafty lefty who isn’t quite crafty enough to start. He projects as a spot starter or swingman, roles Prosecky will likely be ready for by 2027.
Thus far in 2026, the strikeouts and command that make the above profile work just haven’t been there in the results, plus he’s not currently in the starting rotation. I still have Prosecky hanging around in my 35+ FV tier, but he didn’t make my list.
52. Oscar Pujols (2.2 points, 2 ballots) — The 19-year-old right-handed pitcher drops here after being the number 30 PuRP in the pre-season. Pujols was Colorado’s top international free agent pitcher signing in the 2024 period, receiving a $600k bonus. The 6’2”, 165-pound starter is in the upper 80s/low 90s now and boasts a promising curveball when he is healthy. In 2026, that hasn’t been the case, as Pujols just made his first appearance of the season earlier this week with a scoreless inning in the Dominican Summer League.
Pujols has been excellent in the DSL but only really registered close to a full season in 2024. In total, he has just 36 innings as a professional across three years, with a 1.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 rate, and 1.8 BB/9 rate. I’m glad Pujols has made it back onto the mound in 2026, but I’ll need to see more before he’s back in consideration for my list in the off-season.
51. Douglas Veliz(2.2 points, 2 ballots) — The 17-year-old Venezuelan righty catcher wasn’t a heralded signing this off-season at just $50k, but he’s made the most of his opportunities so far in the DSL this year. In 110 plate appearances split between Colorado’s two DSL teams, Veliz has shown excellent patience en route to a .307/.527/.467 line that includes a homer (163 wRC+). The 5’10” slugger walks in nearly 23% of his PA so far against a 14% strikeout rate. Even in a league where command is difficult to find, Veliz’s plate discipline numbers are encouraging and he’s thrown out nearly a third of would-be base stealers from behind the plate.
Given the lack of scouting love that is implied by the lower signing bonus, I’m going to see if Veliz can continue his offensive tear a longer time (and ideally at a higher level) before I put him on my list. Regardless, Veliz has gotten a lot of attention so far with his sterling start.
50. Jordy Vargas (6.0 points, 5 ballots) — The 22-year-old Dominican right-handed pitcher is another pre-season PuRP, coming in at No. 21 in January. Vargas boasts a pitch mix that includes a mid-90s fastball, a potential plus curveball, a promising change, and the ability to throw them for strikes consistently. At least, he did before Tommy John surgery wiped out half of 2023 and all of 2024.
An uneven and abbreviated 2025 didn’t fully answer the question of if the arsenal was back and Vargas was unprotected and unselected in the 2025 Rule 5 Draft. Thomas Harding picks up the story from there in his profile of Vargas from early November 2025. Per that piece, Vargas spent time in the Rockies’ pitching performance lab in Arizona and worked on his form. By the time fall instructs rolled around, he seemed to be rounding back into form.
This year, Vargas has stayed healthy all season and at times has gotten some strong results in High-A Spokane, where he is 1.2 years younger than league average. It hasn’t been a smooth ride though, as Vargas has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 rate, and 5.6 BB/9 rate in 88.2 innings across 20 starts.
Three years ago, Vargas was one of the top teenage pitching prospects in baseball. With a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a hammer curve, and an athletic frame, he had the arm strength and physical projection of a mid-rotation starter with a chance for more. Unfortunately, he blew out that summer in the Cal League, didn’t return until 2025, and hasn’t looked like his old self since getting back on the mound. His velocity is down a few ticks, and the corresponding decrease in sharpness on his breaking stuff has rendered what were once plus offerings fringy or average. Once a great strike-thrower, his control collapsed at High-A last year, and he’s been hit around on the backfields this spring. There are enough ingredients — athleticism, feel for spin, vague hopes of a bounce back — to keep Vargas on the radar, but the arrow is down substantially here.
It’s been good to see Vargas stay healthy and get some High-A hitters out, but it’s not the kind of unambiguous success that will secure him a 40-man roster spot this off-season in his second exposure to the Rule 5 draft. He’s still a 40 FV arm for me, but the system is deep right now and he didn’t make my list.
49. Yujanyer Herrera (6.9 points, 3 ballots) — The 22-year-old Venezuelan right-handed pitcher, who was a trade acquisition in 2024 for Nick Mears after getting signed for only $10k in 2019 by the Brewers, was the No. 22 PuRP in the pre-season list. Like Vargas above him, Herrera was on his way to a breakout year, only to be felled by Tommy John surgery (his was after the 2024 season) and then struggle this year for High-A Spokane, where he is about 1.2 years younger than league average.
In 64.1 frames across 18 games, Herrera has a 6.02 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 rate, and 5.7 BB/9 rate with 12 homers allowed — though his 5.06 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky to get those results.
[Herrera is] still throwing hard [after TJ surgery] with a sinker/slider mix and a good starter’s delivery. Herrera was on track to be one of the team’s better pitching prospects, and if the stuff and control he showed before the injury are still there in the spring, he’s a sleeper to watch.
MLB Pipeline ranks Herrera 24th in the system as a 40 FV player, highlighted by a 55 slider grade:
Herrera did return in time for instructional league play and was providing some optimism by dialing his fastball up to 97-98 mph in shorter stints. Before the injury, he was usually in the 92-94 mph range, getting groundball outs when he sinks it, but relying on his hard slider as his main out pitch. His feel to spin also helps him land a slightly slower curve and he has a changeup that he hadn’t committed to before he got hurt.
The new pitching group with the Rockies are excited about working with Herrera because of his ability to shape different pitches, all coming out of the same slot. He got in some competitive innings in winter ball and he’ll pitch most of the 2026 season at age 22, trying to show he has the stuff and command to stick in a rotation.
Herrera is listed at 175 pounds, but he looks more like 250. He’s a slow-twitch, below-average athlete who has struggled to throw strikes at various points during his career. Even though he has mostly started, his effort level and the way he falls and spins off the mound have made him scattered in a way that’s almost always better suited for the bullpen. His stuff looks down a tick or two this spring, but in shorter stints, he could have two 60’s in the holster, as he touched the upper 90s and his slider missed a ton of bats back in 2024, even though visually it looks more average or 55 than plus. He has experimented with a change but hasn’t used it a ton, and neither the action nor the arm speed scream “projectable.” He’s a middle relief prospect who could move quickly if he’s moved to the bullpen.
Herrera is approaching minor league free agency if the Rockies don’t add him to the 40-man roster, so one way or another some action will be required if both parties want to continue on together in 2027. He’s another one of the 35+ FV arm brigade that the Rockies will need to sort through over the next couple of months as they make Rule 5 decisions.
48. Carlos Vielma (8.1 points, 3 ballots) — The 5’10” lefty hitting, righty throwing Venezuelan third baseman, who turns 17 tomorrow, was acquired from the White Sox in the Brenton Doyle trade earlier this month. The Rockies targeted Vielma in large part due to a scalding professional debut since signing earlier this year to a $400k bonus with Chicago. Playing in the DSL, Vielma has a fantastic .368/.519/.500 batting line with a homer in 156 plate appearances between Chicago and Colorado’s teams, including a 10-17 mark so far with the Rockies org, good for an overall 150 wRC+.
Vielma is a stocky 5-foot-10 infielder who played every infield position except shortstop in the DSL, looking slick (at least for the time being) at both second and third base. There’s not much power now, and Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report indicates that we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for Vielma to develop corner infield-worthy power down the line. But what he does have excellent hand-eye coordination and bat control.
Vielma is far enough away that the range of outcomes is wide, but if he can continue to produce at this level offensively once he comes stateside, that will be worth paying attention to. He’s an infielder in the 35+ FV tier for me.
47. Derek Bernard(11.5 points, 5 ballots) — The just-turned 21-year-old Dominican is a lefty-hitting, righty-throwing corner outfielder who is repeating at Low-A Fresno, where he is 1.1 years younger than league average. Bernard was signed as an infielder for a $185k signing bonus in 2022 that was structured in a way such that it was advantageous tax-wise for him to spend multiple seasons in the DSL (because he was largely raised in Brooklyn). He has produced an above average offensive line at every level so far as a pro.
This year, Bernard has hit .271/.368/.423 in 334 plate appearances in Fresno (he had a three week IL stint in June with a short ACL rehab stint) with eight homers among his 25 extra base hits, good for a 105 wRC+. He’s walking in over 13% of plate appearances while striking out in about 25% of them.
Bernard is a volatile prospect with a mix of big tools and significant hit risk. At the plate, he’s a compact, explosive athlete with an enticing blend of short arms and above-average raw power. For better or worse, the 20-year-old swings very hard. He produces big exit velocities when he squares one up (his max was just shy of 113 mph last year), but the effort level involved seems to limit his barrel accuracy. It’s a steep swing, and Bernard doesn’t manipulate the path much, though plus bat speed lets him get away with it and stay competitive on fastballs up. He’s an aggressive hitter and will expand the zone, but he seems to recognize spin okay and can adjust off the fastball. He isn’t awful against lefties, but he has run noticeable platoon splits thus far.
All of these competing traits played to a truce at Low-A Fresno last year, as he managed to hit .302, though with just six homers. His 24.4% strikeout rate and 67% contact rate are both concerning, but were also improvements over his marks on the complex in 2024 (32% and 65%). Even if directionally positive, it’s tough to project a player with that much swing and miss as a regular, particularly since Bernard is more of a doubles hitter at this point. Defensively, he’s faster than most players already confined to a corner, and his speed, arm, and average instincts should get him to a 55 on that side of the ball. Add it up, and you have the makings of a good platoon outfielder.
Bernard has shown enough to be ranked 27th on my list as a 40 FV player because of the power/walks/athleticism combo, plus excellent exit velocity numbers. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible this off-season and hasn’t yet made it to High-A, so the Rockies will need to consider if he requires a 40-man roster spot soon.
46. Eiberson Castellano (12.8 points, 4 ballots) — The 25-year-old right-handed Venezuelan pitcher was signed by the Rockies this off-season as a free agent. Castellano was signed for just $10k back in 2018 by the Phillies, though he didn’t get into any professional games until 2021. He was a Rule 5 pick in late 2024 by the Twins but was returned to the Phillies before the season began. Castellano left the Phillies organization after 2025 in search of a big league role, which he (briefly) found this year with the Rockies.
This season, Castellano was initially assigned to Double-A Hartford, where in ten starts and 53 innings he showed well, producing a 2.72 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 4.6 BB/9 rate. He was promoted to Triple-A Albuquerque in early June, where he promptly threw six scoreless innings of one hit ball with two walks and seven strikeouts in his debut there. That was enough for the Rockies to add Castellano to the 40-man roster on June 13th and bring him up for his Major League debut the next day, where he threw three scoreless innings in relief in Colorado’s blowout 23-9 win in a hitter’s haven in Las Vegas to get a save (and produce 0.1 rWAR).
The Rockies sent Castellano down the next day, where he has since operated as a de facto starter after an opener. In ten total appearances in Triple-A, Castellano has a 5.30 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 rate, and 5.3 BB/9 rate in 37.1 innings in a Pacific Coast League that is an offensive paradise. He’s a candidate to get some more work at the big league level down the stretch if needed.
[Castellano] got some run with the big league club this spring, where he flashed his usual mix of sharp breaking balls as well as an improved change with sink and tail. It’s somewhat unusual for a pitcher to generate sharp break in both directions, but the Venezuelan righty is able to do it, and his curve in particular has aesthetically pleasing late bite. While he has average arm strength, Castellano’s fastballs don’t really play and he sometimes has trouble setting up his secondaries. That and below-average command likely ticket him for the bullpen in the long run, though he has the arsenal depth to start and Colorado has used him in a length role thus far. If starting is what he wants to do, he’s certainly found the right org to get an opportunity. He has the ceiling of a no. 4 or 5, and regardless of role, he has a shot to debut in the back half of 2026.
Castellano represents good starter depth and has two intriguing breaking pitches that give him a good bullpen fallback, which is worth a 40 FV designation and a place just off my main ballot.
45. Cole Messina (13.2 points, 4 ballots) — The 23-year-old righty catcher was the No. 26 PuRP in the pre-season list. The 6’0”, 230-pound Messina, who signed for a slot bonus of just over $1 million after getting picked 77th overall in 2024, came to the Rockies after two-straight successful years in the toughest conference in NCAA baseball at South Carolina. As a prospect, Messina combines decent plate discipline with good power potential and leadership qualities behind the dish. Unfortunately, the bat just hasn’t produced consistently as a pro.
This year, Messina was assigned to Double-A Hartford, where he is 0.7 years younger than league average. In 284 plate appearances, his .212/.317/.327 line with four homers represents a 75 wRC+. Behind the dish, he’s committed eight errors, allowed three passed balls, and has thrown out 26% of 49 would-be base stealers this year.
It’s a power-over-hit profile for Messina, with more strength than bat speed in his right-handed swing. He can punish mistakes, though he didn’t get to much power in 2025, and he did limit his strikeouts while drawing walks. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing with a leg kick, and at times, a bat wrap to go along with questions about his ability to make adjustments.
Because of his catch-and-throw skills, Messina has a high floor as a future backup at the big league level. More athletic than you’d think — he stole 14 bases in 2025 — pitchers love throwing to him. He’s an excellent receiver who calls a good game and has an arm that threw out 40 percent of potential basestealers last year. If he can iron out his swing and his approach to improve the offensive part of his game, he could be a glove-first regular.
Messina is making a lot of contact with below-average bat speed, a tightrope that will narrow further at every level. He can really throw, and caught 40% of base stealers last year. Those skills together give him the tool set of a club’s third or fourth catcher.
Messina hasn’t yet manifested the skill set that got him noticed as a collegian, which is why he wasn’t in consideration for my list. With that written, Messina’s defensive floor and leadership skills could certainly see him to an up and down reserve big league role in the future.
44. Sebastian Blanco (14 points, 5 ballots) — The 18-year-old Venezuelan shortstop was one of the Rockies’ top targets in the 2025 international free agent class, signing for a $600k bonus. After signing, the 6’1” righty hitter tore up the DSL (143 wRC+) and got moved stateside for 2026.
Blanco was a key piece to Colorado’s championship ACL team this year, where his .293/.388/.432 batting line with three homers was worth 105 wRC+, not bad for a player who was 1.6 years younger than league average. After the ACL season concluded a few weeks ago, Blanco was one of the few prospects who moved straight to full season ball at Low-A Fresno, where he is 3.1 years younger than league average. Blanco has understandably struggled in a small sample but has shown some plate discipline, hitting .167/.364/.167 in 34 plate appearances so far (67 wRC+) while playing second and third base in deference to Ashly Andujar and Wilder Dalis.
At the plate, [Blanco] makes a ton of contact, 82% last year, with feel for the barrel and advanced pitch recognition skills. He hasn’t grown into much power or bat speed yet, but he has time on his side and some physical development left. Defensively, he has quick hands, clean actions, and a strong arm; he looked solid at short in my brief look, and scouts I sourced expect him to stay there. There’s everyday upside if he has enough growth ahead of him to add meaningfully more power, with a utility projection if he winds up with a lighter bat. He’s among the more intriguing hitters in the ACL this year.
Blanco is a 6-foot-1, solidly built middle infielder who has already shown a solid approach and feel for hitting. He walked nearly as often as he struck out during his debut, really limiting his swing-and-miss. He has bat speed with a short right-handed swing and has already displayed some ability to drive the ball with carry off his bat. He made good swing decisions during his debut which led to a ton of quality contact, and there could be more power to come as he fills out.
The infielder, who will play all of 2026 at age 18, manned shortstop almost exclusively last year and has a chance to stay there with average speed and excellent instincts. He likely could handle moving anywhere on the infield in the future because of his feel for the game.
Blanco is an arrow-up player after 2026 and I ranked him 24th on my list as a 40 FV player. He should be back at Fresno next season and is a clear player to watch among what is an exciting wave of Latin American signees in the lower minors for the Rockies.
42. Griffin Herring (14 points, 5 ballots) — The 23-year-old lefty pitcher hasn’t had the 2026 we hoped for. Acquired as part of the Ryan McMahon trade last year from the Yankees, Herring had a wonderful debut pro season last year, rising all the way to High-A with very strong numbers. It was so good that Herring was the No. 10 PuRP in the pre-season list. So why is he off the list entirely at mid-season? It’s been an odd season for the 6’2” pitcher, who got nearly $800k as a 6th rounder from the Yankees in 2024.
Herring was assigned to Double-A Hartford (where he is 1.9 years younger than league average) to begin the year. He made one appearance, getting knocked around for four runs in three innings, then was absent for a month for what has to be injury reasons, though he didn’t go to the IL. A month later, Herring resurfaced in the ACL, where he made four relatively short appearances in May. He returned to Hartford in late May, where he worked mostly as a reliever and struggled with his command.
In total, Herring made 12 appearances for Hartford this year with a 8.87 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 rate, and a 9.6 BB/9 rate in 23.1 innings. The latest twist is that Herring was assigned to the ACL team (after their season was done) two weeks ago, no doubt to get some attention in Colorado’s pitching lab. Herring wasn’t known for his wildness leading into this year (though there were some command concerns) and still has his strikeout stuff, so let’s hope this move helps unlock his 2025 form.
Herring struck out 31.4 percent of batters he faced last year, the seventh-best strikeout rate among all qualifying starters in the minors. He sits 90-92 from a very high slot that gives him a ton of deception, working with a short slider that generates a ton of whiffs and an average changeup. He’s almost certainly a reliever between the slot and the below-average fastball, but could get there quickly and be valuable in any kind of once-through-the-order role. I wish he’d been traded to the Reds; I’m worried in Denver, he’ll get smoked.
Herring came over to Colorado in the Ryan McMahon deal. The southpaw does his best to give hitters a weird look, and to be clear, that’s intended as high praise. He works on the extreme third base side of the rubber, where, like a swimmer testing the water on a cool day, he barely dips his big toe on to the slab. He has a big crossfire that helps him hide the ball, and there’s a little hitch at the top of his release to further challenge a hitter’s timing. He gets down the mound well and has plus extension; a very high release adds one more wrinkle to the puzzle.
All of that deception seems to be helping, as Herring mowed over Low- and High-A hitters with mostly average stuff last year. His fastball sits 89-92 and barely touches higher, but it generates plenty of whiffs and chases despite the velocity. His best sliders are above average, with tight shape and spin that makes the break come late. His changeups have good fade, but he has to lower his slot to generate the movement; we’ll see if better hitters notice and spit on it.
We’d feel better about Herring’s prospects if he was able to locate this mix surgically, as command and deception together can compensate for below-average arm strength. His control is ahead of his command, though, as he often misses the target even when he’s hitting the plate, and he’s prone to missing badly. The whole package is more intriguing than convincing — though to be fair, it is very intriguing — but if you’re inclined, you can talk yourself into projecting the command to arrive late, as he may still be acclimating to the adjustments he’s made in pro ball (he’s changed his placement on the rubber, raised his slot, and is throwing more breaking balls). He projects as a no. 5, with more variance than your typical soft-tossing lefty.
Herring has taken a big step back this year, but he’s still a 40 FV pitcher in my eyes, ranking 29th on my list. Let’s hope he unlocks something over the off-season or at least before the Rockies need to make a 40-man roster decision after the 2027 season.
Tune back in tomorrow to see more multi-ballot players!
In a starting pitching landscape filled with uncertainty and inconsistency, Paul Skenes was supposed to be a given. He was the consensus top prospect in the 2023 MLB Draft, blitzed through the minor leagues in just 17 starts, and posted sub-2.00 ERA seasons in each of his first two MLB years. He came into this season just 24 years old and set to dominate the sport for years to come.
But somewhere along the way, things went sideways.
It began on Opening Day, when Skenes couldn't even make it out of the first inning against the Mets, allowing five runs on four hits in two-thirds of an inning. People wondered whether his participation in the World Baseball Classic had caused him to ramp up too quickly in the offseason. Yet, that Opening Day game was characterized by poor defense and bad luck and seemed like more of a fluke than anything.
Skenes allowed more than one run in just one of his next eight starts, and it seemed like we were right back on track.
Yet, here we are, on August 11, asking ourselves how Skenes could possibly have a 3.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 129.2 innings for the Pirates this year. How could he also take that big of a step backwards while also increasing his strikeout rate and K-BB% from last year while posting an identical swinging strike rate (SwStr%)? None of it seems to add up, so it's time we dig in a little deeper to find out what's wrong with Paul Skenes in 2026.
Mechanical Changes
We can get into Skenes' fastball velocity and individual pitch performance, and we will, but underlying all of this, there's one mechanical change that could connect everything. Skenes has increased his arm angle by three degrees this season (see image below), and it's up on every single pitch he throws.
Statcast
It's unclear why this has happened. You can read theories that he has put on too much weight or that he's compensating for a dead arm, but none of that has been reported. So all we know is that Skenes has raised his arm angle three degrees, and it's led to small shape changes on all of his pitches. His four-seam fastball has 1.4 inches more rise and 1.6 inches less arm-side run. His sweeper has 1.4 inches less sweep. His changeup has 1.3 inches less arm-side run and 1.2 inches less drop. His sinker has 2.1 inches more rise. You get the point.
The shape changes have led to changes in how close batters are getting to his pitches. Thanks to Statcast's new Swing Timing Leaderboard, we can see just how much batters miss Skenes' pitches by. The biggest change has been with his slider. In 2025, hitters missed his slider by 5.1 inches on average, but they are missing by 3.1 inches on average in 2026. His sweeper miss distance fell from 4.6 inches to 3.8 inches, the same exact numbers as his changeup, and his sinker miss distance fell from 1.7 inches to 1.2 inches.
So, across the board (except on his four-seamer), hitters are swinging and missing by less on each individual pitch than they were in 2025. But here's the deal: they're still swinging and missing. We have more data on this later, but, for example, hitters are whiffing MORE on his slider this year despite the miss distance being smaller. Which is actually useful because it's telling us that hitters getting closer to the ball isn't translating into more contact overall, but when they do make contact, the quality of contact has gotten better.
Skenes’ Quality of Contact is Getting Worse
This is another confusing situation because Skenes isn't actually getting hit much harder. His average exit velocity allowed is 87.4 mph, which is up just 0.1 mph from last year. His xwOBA on contact is .346, up from .328 last year and well below the .369 league average. His barrel rate has gone up 1.2%, but he's still sporting an above-average 6.8% barrel rate, and his hard-hit rate allowed actually improved to 39.3% from last year's 40.1%.
So it's not simply that Skenes is getting hit harder, but it's that hitters are making the most of their contact more often.
Skenes is throwing pitches in the heart of the zone less often than the MLB average; however, hitters are swinging at those pitches far more often than average, suggesting batters may be trying to be more aggressive against Skenes this season. Skenes' early called strike rate has fallen from 20.8% to 18%, which would support the idea that hitters are trying to be more aggressive when he comes into the zone at the beginning of counts.
Statcast
On pitches in the heart of the strike zone, he's giving up a .477 xwOBA this season, which is up significantly from .371 last year. A simple Statcast search also shows that, on pitches in the heart of the zone, Skenes is giving up batted balls with nearly a 2 mph increase in exit velocity and a significant increase in xSLG (see image below). All of which is to say that even though the overall quality of contact against Skenes isn't massively different from 2025, hitters are taking advantage of his mistakes or when he comes into the zone far more often than they did in previous years.
Statcast
Skenes’ Sinker Could be the Main Issue
If you're looking for a pitch that could be at the root of Skenes' larger issues, it might be his sinker. I mentioned above that his sinker shape has changed slightly from last season, and his release height on the pitch has also increased from 1.94 feet to 2.29 feet. That could be impacting his command. Last year, Skenes had just a 43.6% zone rate on his sinker, which was 7th percentile among starting pitchers. Yet, the pitch missed more bats than the average sinker and rarely gave up any barrels. This season, his zone rate has increased to 47.8%, but throwing more sinkers in the zone has not been good for Skenes.
The command of his sinker in the zone has been an issue. According to Pitcher List data, Skenes has thrown his sinker middle on the x-axis (meaning not away or inside) 31.7% of the time this season. He only did that 25.7% in 2024 and 27.1% of the time last year. He's also thrown his sinker in the middle on the y-axis (meaning not up or down) 31.3% of the time this year. That's up from 24.4% last year and 23.5% in 2024. So Skenes is zoning his sinker far more often than he ever has before, locating it in the middle of the zone more than he has before, and has seen his hard-hit rate on the pitch spike to 54.5% and his barrel rate increase to 4.5% (up from 2.9%).
Why has Skenes' sinker command started to fail him? Is it due to the mechanical changes? Is it a conscious approach shift? Whatever it is, his whiff rate and swinging strike rates on the pitch have collapsed, and hitters have a 90.6% contact rate and 95% zone contact rate on the pitch. That's up from 79.6% and 89.8%, respectively, in 2025.
That's not going to work.
Statcast
Skenes’ Four-Seamer Usage Has Changed
Perhaps the biggest difference for Skenes from 2025 to 2026 has been his four-seam locations and usage.
As I mentioned above, Skenes has added vertical movement to his four-seamer this year and is clearly trying to elevate it more often than he did in 2025. He has a 72.2% high location on his four-seamer this year, up from 50.3% last year. That's a massive jump. Skenes has also seen his whiff rate increase meaningfully from 23.9% to 27.7%, while his swinging strike rate has gone from 15.2% to 17%. So you can talk all you want about his four-seam velocity being down, but the pitch is a much better swing-and-miss pitch this year.
Yet, what's interesting is that Skenes has not been more effective with the four-seamer inside the zone but is actually elevating it above the strike zone more than before.
His rate of high fastballs in the strike zone has gone from 30.1% in 2025 to 30.5% in 2026. However, his rate of four-seam fastballs above the zone has
nearly doubled, from 20.8% to 38.7%. That's a big reason the O-Swing% on his four-seamer has climbed from 29.1% to 39% while his called strike rate has fallen from 17.2% to 12.9%. Skenes is intentionally (we assume) missing above the zone with his four-seamer to get whiffs, but, surprisingly, it hasn't actually led him to more success in two-strike counts. Skenes is actually throwing the four-seamer less often in two-strike counts, and despite getting more chases outside of the zone in those counts, his PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout, is basically the same as last year.
In two-strike counts alone, his rate of above-the-zone four-seamers has gone from 30.9% to 47.6%. So even though he's getting many more chases outside of the zone, he's just throwing so many more fastballs above the zone that the overall success of that pitch in two-strike counts is unchanged because batters are also laying off enough of them. He's also seen a decrease in strikes and whiffs in the top third of the strike zone because he's attacking above that more often now.
Statcast
So Skenes' fastball has become a better swing-and-miss pitch overall and in two-strike counts, but the improvement is offset by an increase in his rate of elevated four-seamers, which has led to no real improvement as a two-strike pitch. Pitcher List also has his "Quality Pitch" percentage on his four-seamer dropping from 50.6% to 47.2%, so he may need to be less aggressive with how often he attacks above the strike zone.
That similar conundrum is true of the contact results against his four-seamer. By elevating the four-seamer more often, his hard-hit rate and xwOBA are down. However, his HR/FB rate on four-seamers has gone up from 8.3% to 11.6%, allowing the same number of fly-ball home runs off his four-seamer (5) off fewer total fly balls.
So his four-seamer is missing more bats, but not missing more bats in two-strike counts. It's allowing less hard contact but also allowing more home runs on that limited contact. It's getting tons of chases outside of the zone but perhaps too often being thrown outside of the zone. Another confusing mix of both good and bad that has become consistent in this deep dive.
Slider is Missing Bats But Also Getting Hit Hard, Sweeper is Not Getting Low
The last pitches we'll dig into in detail are his sliders.
For starters, his sweeper has seen its swinging strike rate fall from 14.8% to 12.2%. Skenes is throwing it in the zone less often, and it's returning fewer strikes. Perhaps that could also be because of the shape change we discussed all the way at the beginning, but his command of the pitch has gotten less precise. Last year, he threw the sweeper low in the zone 51.7% of the time, but that has fallen to just 44.3% this season. As a result, his two-strike chase rate has plummeted from 22.4% to 13.9%, and he's stopped throwing the sweeper in two-strike counts as often.
His slider has seen its swinging strike rate improve from 15.7% to 22.7%, and its locations are much better, with a 28% increase in low location rate. As a result, Skenes is using that slider 49.1% of the time in two-strike counts, up from 23.3% last year, and it has a 30% PutAway Rate and 36.3% two-strike chase rate, both of which are well above average.
All of that seems great, but his hard-hit rate on the slider has more than doubled, from 17.6% to 40.0%, and his xwOBA has nearly doubled too. So he's locating his slider better, has cut his mistake rate on the pitch in half, is missing far more bats, but also giving up much harder contact on the pitch. The average location rates we see on Pitcher List may be masking a split where Skenes has some really good locations and some real mistakes; however, the mistake rate is down, which makes that harder to believe. We could just be seeing a small-sample effect, since we're only talking about 18-25 total balls in play on the slider across both seasons.
He’s Suffering from Some Bad Luck/Poor Defense
The last component here is simply that Skenes has been dealing with some bad luck and a poor defense.
He has a .292 xOBA but a .270 xwOBA, which is actually flipped from what happened in 2024 and 2025. He also has a .223 batting average against but a .208 xBA. His xERA of 3.00 and his SIERA of 3.07 are nearly a full run better than his actual ERA of 3.96. These don't seem like massive gaps, but his actual results are worse than the contact quality alone explains.
The Pirates team defense has also declined in 2026. Last year they ranked 7th in the majors in Outs Above Average at +18, but this year they are 23rd (-14). They also rank 22nd in Defensive Runs Saved at -1, while they finished 10th last season with a Defensive Runs Saved of +32. Those are massive swings, not marginal ones.
This was part of the gamble the Pirates took in the offseason when they tried to improve their offense. Signing Marcell Ozuna to be their DH meant that Ryan O'Hearn had to play the outfield a lot. Even when Ozuna was no longer a part of the lineup, the Pirates had replaced Ke'Bryan Hayes at third base and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop with players who are a clear defensive downgrade.
Last year, Hayes put up a +15 Outs Above Average at third base, while Jared Triolo had a +6 at shortstop and Kiner-Falefa was +1. Nick Gonzales was also a +4 Outs Above Average at second base, but he has been a -6 at third base. That's a gap of 21 from Hayes to Gonzales. Meanwhile, Triolo's defense at shortstop got worse, and Konnor Griffin graded out really poorly in his starts as well before he got hurt.
Statcast
Final Takeaway on Paul Skenes
My takeaway after this long deep dive is that Paul Skenes is not broken and has not lost his stuff. His strikeout ability is arguably better than it was last year, and his general approach of using his four-seamer up in the zone and his slider/splitter beneath it makes tons of sense. He's also not allowing that much more contact or harder contact, but hitters are making the most of the contact they're getting in a way that wasn't true in previous seasons. Pair that with a mechanical shift that has led to shape changes and worse locations on a few pitches, and you get a picture of a few minor tweaks combining with bad luck and poor defense to snowball into a worst-case scenario.
Maybe Skenes is pitching through an injury. Maybe this will be a lost season until he can do a biomechanical deep dive and fix his arm angle change. However, it's also just as likely that the luck starts to bounce his way, his command slowly gets back to levels we've seen previously, and he ends the season on a hot stretch.
It's just impossible to say which way things will go for Skenes this season because the whole year has been a riddle that doesn't quite make sense.
Blake Snell makes his long-awaited return tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who sit as a heavy -257 moneyline favorite against the visiting Kansas City Royals. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium.
With Michael Wacha struggling, my Royals vs Dodgers predictions expect LA to take the second game of this series.
Who will win Royals vs Dodgers tonight: Dodgers -1.5 (-121)
Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha enters tonight’s start in poor form. He carries a 4.31 xERA across his last four starts while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate during that span.
Wacha now faces a Los Angeles Dodgers offense that hasa 105 wRC+ at home this season.
As for Blake Snell, he’ll be on a pitch count after a prolonged absence, and the Royals own a very average 96 wRC+ against left-handers. LA’s bullpen should be involved earlier tonight, but that is manageable with the relief corps recording a 2.97 xERA over the last week.
I’ll play this pick up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Kansas City’s bullpen issues are not just a recent blip. The Royals own a 5.25 FIP on the season and a nearly identical 5.21 FIP over the last week, giving the Dodgers a massive edge later in the evening.
Royals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)
Wacha is shaky lately, and Snell’s pitch count should create an earlier bullpen game for Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a 4.64 FIP over the last week while allowing 1.27 HR/9.
Kansas City’s bullpen is an even bigger concern, sporting a 5.21 FIP and 1.44 HR/9 in that same span.
I’ll play this pick down to -110.
Royals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Kyle Tucker (+344)
2026 has been a difficult year for Kyle Tucker, but he’s swinging it with authority right now. The slugger owns a .400 ISO over his last six games, smacking two home runs during that span.
Tucker is consistently getting the ball in the air, boasting a 52.6% fly-ball rate over the last week. That matters against Wacha and the Royals bullpen. Wacha owns a 48.6% fly-ball rate over the last month, and he’s surrendered 1.09 HR/9.
KC’s relief corps has given up 1.77 HR/9 over the last two weeks while allowing 40.7% of its contact in the air. Whether it comes against Wacha or a reliever, Tucker has a clear path to connect on No. 12 tonight.
Playable to +300.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 47-57, -16.09 units
Over/Under bets: 57-44, +6.34 units
Royals vs Dodgers weather
Weather at Dodger Stadium looks clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 78°F to around 73°F later in the game.
Winds are moderate early, around 9 mph before easing closer to 6 mph, and rain chances sit at just 1%. Overall, conditions look neutral with no delay concern.
Royals vs Dodgers odds
Moneyline: Royals +245 | Dodgers -257
Run line: Royals +1.5 (+113) | Dodgers -1.5 (-121)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-103) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Royals vs Dodgers trend
The Over is 4-0-1 in the Royals' last five games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Royals vs Dodgers and game info
Location
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif.
Date
Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026
First pitch
10:10 p.m. ET
TV
Royals.TV, SportsNet LA
Royals starting pitcher
Michael Wacha (5-8, 3.44 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher
Blake Snell (0-1, 12.00 ERA)
Royals vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
We’re deep in the offseason. A summer of hype around new recruits and NBA Draft anticipation has now become quiet. To pass time, let’s take a look at the Illini’s returning core and their closest NBA comparisons.
David Mirkovic: Julius Randle
Mirkovic and Randle are almost identical when it comes to their body frames, with Mirk sitting at 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds and Randle at 6-foot-8 and 250. The similarities are also seen in what they do with their bodies: they both love to play bully-ball. With both of them lacking elite verticals above the rim, they instead utilize their frames to fight through contact, dominate the glass and get buckets at the rim.
Julius Randle combines the bully-ball aspect of his game with his ability to knock down shots from the perimeter, making 33% of his 3-point shots throughout his career. David Mirkovic does the same, stretching defenses out to the arc to contest his triples when it isn’t working for him in the paint. Mirk shot 37.5% from long-range last season, attempting around four per game. Randle also attempted around four per game last season. Obviously, neither is a spot-up shooter, but they both pose a scoring threat from the paint and the perimeter.
Both of them are primarily power forwards, but they both can act as point forwards. Randle occasionally initiates the offense from the perimeter and is able to grab a defensive rebound and push coast-to-coast. Mirkovic’s background as a point guard gives him similar traits, and they both possess high IQ and passing vision as power forwards.
Additionally, they both use their physicality to excel at grabbing rebounds. Julius Randle career rebounds per game sit at 8.9, and Mirkovic snagged 8 per game in his freshman season.
Zvonimir Ivisic: Mo Bamba
Frame-wise, Z and Mo are both freakishly lengthy. Zvonimir sits at 7-foot-2 and around 245-250 pounds, and Bamba at 7-foot and 230. But that’s not where the swatting abilities come from. Zvonimir Ivisic’s wingspan is speculated to be around 7-foot-5 or greater, and Mo Bamba’s 7-foot-10 wingspan is one of the largest ever recorded at the NBA Draft combine.
As basketball players, they both primarily thrive at one thing: protecting the rim. They excel with their timing, reflexes and length to reject shots around the cylinder. Bamba has swatted roughly 6.5% of two-point attempts while on the floor throughout his NBA career, and Z’s 12.6% block rate ranked No. 4 nationally last season.
Beyond rim protection, they both carry themselves as stretch 5s on offense, spacing the floor by offering a 3-point threat from the wing and forcing bigs to leave the paint. Bamba’s career 3-point percentage sits at 35%, while Zvonimir has made 33.6% of his triples so far throughout his NCAA career.
Neither of them are seen posting-up in the paint often, but they still score in the interior by catching lobs, running the floor in transition and crashing the boards for putback dunks.
Tomislav Ivisic: Nikola Vucevic
Tomislav Ivisic and Nikola Vucevic’s styles of play are practically the same. The one thing setting them apart is the height difference: Tomislav’s 7-foot-1 frame towers over Vuc’s 6-foot-9 frame.
Still, they score in the same ways. They both love a good pick-and-pop at the top of the key to offer a shot option and make space for guards in the lane. And when they’re given the ball there, they’ll knock down most of their triples from the top of the key. Vucevic has made 35% of his career triple attempts, and Tomislav 32% in his Illini career. Last season, Tomislav attempted 4.7 3-pointers per game while Vucevic attempted 4.2 per game.
If the long-range shots aren’t going down, the pick-and-pop can turn into a pick-and-roll, but with a short roll. They both like to open themselves up to the free throw line for a floater instead of fighting through contact in the paint.
Even though they don’t usually invite contact, they both possess shifty skills in the post for interior scoring and rely on their footwork, fakes, hook shots and creativity.
Beyond scoring, these two centers love to playmake from the elbow and utilize their vision to find cutters.
Andrej Stojakovic: DeMar DeRozan
DeMar and Andrej are both 6-foot-6, though DeMar’s 220 pounds is a little heavier than Stojakovic’s 205.
One thing they’re both unusually skilled at is relieving pressure late in the shot clock. They like to demand the ball at the perimeter, then use their isolation skills and explosive athleticism to bail their team out for a layup or midrange.
That same explosive athleticism helps them soar in the air vertically. DeMar recorded a 38.5-inch vertical at the 2009 NBA Draft combine, while Andrej recorded a 41.5-inch vertical in this year’s combine. That bounce gives both of them the ability to finish violently and posterize players in the paint, as Stojakovic did multiple times last season and DeMar did frequently in his Raptor years.
Their body control allows them to finish off a lot of tough buckets in the mid-paint. Both take, and make, tough layups, floaters and short pull-ups while adjusting their bodies midair.
Most of their scoring comes from these types of buckets, along with midrange shots closer to the arc and free throws from fouls drawn. Stojakovic was more comfortable knocking down the triple in his first two collegiate years than his first season as an Illini. At Stanford and Cal, he averaged 3.8 3-point attempts per game and made 32.2% of them. Last season, he only took 2.4 3-pointers per game and made just 24.4% of them.
DeRozan on the other hand, attempted just 1.7 3-pointers per game and shot 28.8% from behind the arc during his nine seasons as a Toronto Raptor. As a Chicago Bull and Sacramento King, DeRozan attempted 2.4 3-pointers per game and made 33% of them.
They both have the capability to knock down the triple, but cannot always find the rhythm.
Jake Davis: Shane Battier
Battier has two inches and 10 pounds on Jake Davis, but they play almost identically. Both glue guys use their high basketball IQ and positioning to slide into help defense, take charges and close out on shots on one side of the court, and cut backdoor and make the extra pass on the other.
Beyond their intelligence on the court, their hustle and grit don’t always show up on the box score. They both box out, crash the glass and fight for loose balls relentlessly through toughness.
Lastly, but certainly not least, they’re both primarily known for one thing: knocking down the catch-and-shoot corner triple and being absolutely elite at it. Davis shot 40.6% from behind the arc last season, knocking down 54 out of his 133 attempts. In the 2012-13 season with the Miami Heat, Shane Battier shot 43% from 3-point range, nailing 103 of his 276 attempts.
TCR readers, do you agree or disagree with these comparisons? Offer your own in the comments below!