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The Philadelphia Phillies (60%) will send Zack Wheeler to the mound as they look to snap out of a two-game losing skid.

He should give them the pitching advantage opposite of Martin Perez, whose 3.05 ERA does not at all align with a 28th percentile ranking in xERA.

That's one of the reasons I'm backing the home team with my Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (61%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Zack Wheeler is in a sneaky-good spot to get back on track against the Atlanta Braves. They have quietly struggled against righties over the last month, sitting 25th in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA. 

I have higher expectations for the Philadelphia Phillies offense against Martin Perez. He continues to be a prime regression candidate, posting a 2.28 ERA the past 30 days despite a ballooning 4.99 xERA.

The Phillies have hit lefties well, and are 14-4 as favorites against a southpaw starter with an ERA above 3.00.

Play to 63%.

COVERS INTEL: The Braves are 25th in batting average on the road against righties the past month. It'll be difficult to get going against Wheeler, who's held opponents to a .198 average at home.

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)

Wheeler has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts against teams outside the Top-10 in OBP against righties.

The Braves sit 14th on the season and 21st across the past 20 games, making this a spot where we should expect a quality start.

For his faults, Perez deserves credit for high-end barrel suppression. He’s in the 86th percentile on the year, and that will help him limit homers and quick-strike offense.

Both teams also have rested bullpens after their starters pitched six innings Friday on the back of off days on Thursday.

I’m buying to 56%. 

Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Trea Turner (17%)

Trea Turner has a nice history against Perez, hitting .294 with an ISO just under .300.

He is also in excellent form facing Perez’ pitch mix. Turner’s average exit velocity is up nearly four miles per hour over the last 25 plate appearances, and his hard hit rate has soared to nearly 70% along the way.

He has fared especially well against changeups and sinkers, which are Perez’ two most-used pitches.

Braves vs Phillies weather

Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with winds blowing left-to-right. No real impact on scoring.

Braves vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Braves 41% | Phillies 60%
• Run line: Braves +1.5 (60%) | Phillies -1.5 (41%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Braves vs Phillies trend

The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info

Braves vs Phillies latest injuries

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (50%) have enjoyed a ton of success with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, winning 11 of 14 starts.

With the Houston Astros offense struggling to string together hits against right-handed pitching, I'm happy to back Arizona with my Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Astros today: Arizona Diamondbacks (51%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Brandon Pfaadt’s recent dip in play is only natural when facing a gauntlet that includes the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies.

The Houston Astros do not belong in that conversation offensively. They rank dead last in wOBA vs. righties the past month, and their xwOBA is actually lower than the results they’ve garnered.

I have more faith in the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. They sit 16th in wOBA over the same span and are facing the inexperienced Ethan Pecko, who has not been able to keep runners off the bases (1.54 WHIP).

Back Arizona to 53%.

COVERS INTEL:Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 91st percentile in walk rate, making opposing offenses earn everything they get.

Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)

The Diamondbacks are seeing righties well, ranking ninth in barrel rate over the past month. Pecko has given up a ton of quality contact (10.3% barrel rate, 51.3% hard-hit rate), and the Diamondbacks should take full advantage of that.

Pfaadt has given up five homers over his past three starts, and he ranks in the 44th percentile in barrel suppression this season.

Houston may not be stringing together hits right now, but only the Nationals have more homers against right-handed pitching at home. They have power to contribute.

Play the Over to 52%.

Diamondbacks vs Astros home run prediction: Nolan Arenado (15%)

Sinkers and fastballs account for nearly 65% of Pecko’s pitches against right-handed batters. That sets up favorably for Nolan Arenado, who possesses ISOs above .230 when facing each of those pitches.

We’re still dealing with small sample sizes with Pecko, but he ranks in the 5th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xSLG, and ISO. He is giving up a ton of good, hard contact, and Arenado is a good candidate to take advantage.

Diamondbacks vs Astros weather

This game will be played indoors.

Diamondbacks vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks 50% | Astros 51%
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%) | Astros +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)

Diamondbacks vs Astros trend

Arizona has hit the moneyline in 15 of the last 24 away games (+10.90 units, 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Astros and game info

Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries

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Rays 7, Rangers 6

• A one run loss.
• Though it was a game that probably shouldn’t have been as close as it ended up being, that the Rangers were fortunate to be that close in.
• An underwhelming performance by Kumar Rocker, whose consistent inconsistency continues to be a hallmark of his season.
• Texas went with the ultra-rare double-opener, utilizing Trevor Williams for the first inning and Robby Ahlstrom for the second before turning to Rocker.
• Rocker inherited a 1-0 lead, then gave up a homer to the second batter he faced, resulting in his first career blown save.
• In his last appearance, Rocker needed 86 pitches to go just three innings. This time around, he didn’t walk anyone and struck out just three batters, resulting in much shorter plate appearances, on average, with the result being that he threw just 73 pitches to get through five innings.
• He gave up six runs on those five innings, though, so…
• We got to see three Rangers pitchers in the ninth inning, which is always fun. After Tyler Alexander, who had pitched the eighth inning, retired Taylor Walls to start the inning, Chase Silseth came in, faced three batters, and retired none of them, with one run scoring. Key trade deadline day acquisition Adam Macko was summoned to get the final two outs.
• Silseth’s misadventure turned a one run deficit into a two run deficit, which became relevant when the Rangers scored one run, but not two runs, in the bottom of the ninth.
• The one run was driven in by Elias Diaz, and a particularly amusing element of this game is that Diaz drove in five of the six runs the Rangers scored.
• Yes, that Elias Diaz.
• Diaz had turned a dull blowout into a close game with a grand slam in the seventh, making what had been a 6-1 game into a 6-5 game.
• This was the first grand slam of the year for the Rangers.
• It was also just the sixth extra base hit the Rangers have had with the bases loaded in 2026.
• It boosted the Rangers’ slash line on the season with the bases loaded to .225/.240/.304.
• The league as a whole, as a point of reference, is slashing .274/.313/.437 with the bases loaded.
• The Rangers, as a team, are slashing .243/.318/.399 this season. The league as a whole is slashing .244/.318/.400.
• If you’re wondering why the Rangers are 26th in the majors in runs scored per game despite having essentially a league-average slash line…well, the performance with the bases loaded isn’t the whole reason, but it certainly is a significant factor.
• The Rangers have scored 50 runs fewer than the average MLB team. Maybe I should go estimate how many more runs they’d have scored this year if they’d been just average in bases loaded situations.
• Anyway, Diaz’s ninth inning RBI came on a sacrifice fly. Jake Burger and Evan Carter drew walks to start the ninth, leading Skip Schumaker to send Nicky Lopez into the game as a pinch hitter for Cody Freeman to bunt the runners to second and third.
• The decision to bunt there was debatable, and maybe the Rangers should have just taken their chances with Freeman at the plate rather than give up an out to move the tying run to second base. Diaz and Justin Foscue were up behind Freeman, though, so its not like you’re super-enthused about the Rangers’ chances of walking it off regardless.
• I know the coterie of Nicky Lopez fans on LSB were excited to see him in the game, though. Its now been over two weeks since his last start, though this is his ninth appearance in that time. If you are tuning into games to watch Nicky Lopez, you probably don’t need to tune in until the later innings.
• Ezequiel Duran was responsible for the other Ranger run, on a home run, his 17th of the season. It was the first run of the game, and teased us into thinking the Rangers were going to win, what with their stellar record when scoring first.
• Texas, incidentally, was 1 for 2 with runners in scoring position in the game. Kind of amazing they scored six runs, given that.
• Corey Seager had a pair of hits, the only Ranger to record more than one hit.
• Jake Burger drew three walks to go along with his one hit, so that’s fun.
• Evan Carter had a hit and a walk. Good job, Evan.
• He also picked up an error that led to an unearned run, though, so, you know, mixed bag for Full Count Carter in this game.
• Trevor Williams hit 92.2 mph with his fastball. Robby Ahlstrom reached 94.3 mph with his fastball. Kumar Rocker touched 96.3 with his fastball, averaging 94.9 mph, and 96.2 mph, averaging 95.0 mph, with his sinker. Tyler Alexander maxed out at 92.6 mph with his fastball. Chase Silseth’s sinker hit 98.2 mph. Adam Macko’s fastball topped out at 95.5 mph.
• Elias Diaz had a 105.5 mph groundout to go with his 103.4 mph grand slam. Ezequiel Duran had a 104.7 mph groundout and a 104.2 mph home run.
• Anyway. Now to start a new winning streak.

Some Guardians fans took in two baseball games yesterday and saw two, joyous walk-off wins against the Tigers.

From Brayan Rocchio’s slam:

To Brayan Rocchio’s walk-off:

To Travis Bazzana’s game-tying two-run mash:

To Travis Bazzana’s walk-off:

To heroics all day from the bullpen including Erik Sabrowski, Daniel Espino and Hunter Gaddis all throwing two innings a-piece, it was a day to remember at Progressive Field. Let’s hope tonight is another one.

The Guardians are 9-2 against the Tigers this season. With Williams and Messick starting these last two games, need to find a way to make it 11-2.

Chase DeLauter left yesterday’s game with wrist pain. Stephen Vogt was typically optimistic he would avoid the IL. Same for Angel Martinez who left with a bruised shoulder after colliding with Rocchio.

Bench coach Tony Arnerich AGAIN called for a stupid bunt in Vogt’s absence (ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire about a pitch clock violation). Having Rocchio bunt period is dumb but with Bailey on second and the Tigers clearly playing the bunt, it was especially inane. I don’t like what I have seen of his strategic mind.

Around MLB:

The White Sox, Astros and Blue Jays won, the Twins, Rangers and Orioles lost. The Guardians are a game up on the Blue Jays (who have a very easy September schedule also) and 2.5 games behind the White Sox.

In the preview to this game that I posted Friday afternoon, I wrote:

Personally, if I were making the decisions for the Cubs, I would not have Shōta Imanaga make this start.

Well. Couldn’t be happier to have been wrong about that. Imanaga had one of his best outings of the 2026 season, allowing just three hits and one run and NO home runs in six strong innings, and the Cubs defeated the Marlins 6-1. This was accomplished after the usually long-haired Japanese left-hander got a short haircut. Cause and effect? Probably not, but whatever it takes, it’s very important for the Chicago Cubs to have good Shōta back. Hope he sticks around through October.

The Cubs scored first in this one. In the top of the second, Alex Bregman led off with a single, but got picked off. That was followed by singles by Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, putting runners on first and third. Pedro Ramirez then hit into a force play, scoring Happ [VIDEO].

I’d probably be more unhappy with that pickoff if the Cubs hadn’t gone on to win the game rather easily.

Imanaga and Marlins starter Janson Junk matched zeroes for three more innings until the Cubs broke the game open in the sixth. Junk was replaced by Jack Ralston, who walked Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA immediately took off for second and recorded his 33rd steal of the year. One out later, Michael Busch and Bregman walked to load the bases.

One more free pass, to Happ, scored PCA to make it 2-0 [VIDEO].

With the bases still loaded, Hoerner singled to make it 3-0 [VIDEO].

Ramirez followed with this sac fly and the Cubs led by four [VIDEO].

Imanaga set down the Marlins in order in the bottom of the sixth — but only because of this spectacular catch by PCA [VIDEO].

I don’t think any other center fielder in MLB makes that catch. PCA continues to do things every single day that amaze me. This freeze frame from the catch tells the story:

In the top of the seventh, he led off with a double, advanced to third on a fly ball and scored on a wild pitch that made it 5-0.

I thought Imanaga would be removed after six, but Craig Counsell let him stay in to face the left-handed hitting Griffin Conine, who singled. Then Imanaga was taken out after 94 pitches. Here’s more on Imanaga’s evening [VIDEO].

Aaron Civale replaced Imanaga and allowed a double that sent Conine to third, where he scored on a ground out to make it 5-1.

That’s where the game stayed until the top of the ninth, when Michael Busch homered, his 18th [VIDEO].

That ball was absolutely demolished [VIDEO].

It would be really good for Busch — and, of course, the team — if he could show that sort of power the rest of the way, and in the postseason. The Cubs could use the guy who hit 34 homers last year and four more in eight postseason games.

Civale finished up with three scoreless innings, earning his second save. Here’s the final out [VIDEO].

Civale, for his part, has been really good in relief since his acquisition July 18. In 12 appearances covering 26.1 innings for the Cubs: 1.37 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, only one home run and a walk rate of just 7.3 percent. He could be a really valuable bullpen piece in the postseason. A note on Civale’s three-inning save from BCB’s JohnW53:

Aaron Civale’s save was the Cubs’ fifth this season of at least three innings. Javier Assad has two, one of four innings. Colin Rea and Jordan Wicks have the others.

The Cubs had five all of last season: one each by Ben Brown, Civale, Chris Flexen, Rea and Wicks.

Here are some postgame comments from Nico [VIDEO].

You can see that “freeze frame” Nico is talking about above. Fact from this game about Nico from John:

Nico Hoerner’s three-hit game was his 13th of the season with at least three, one ahead of Alex Bregman’s 12. Pete Crow-Armstrong has 11; Seiya Suzuki, 10; and eight others have two to seven.

Hoerner has had 66 games with three or more hits since he joined the Cubs in 2019. Ian Happ is a distant second, with 51. Suzuki has 43; Crow-Armstrong, 29; Dansby Swanson, 26; and Michael Busch, 25.

And here are postgame remarks from Counsell [VIDEO].

The Cubs moved back into the top wild card spot by half a game with this win and the Phillies loss Friday.

Javier Assad is going to return from exile Triple-A Iowa to start Saturday’s game against the Marlins. (I’m assuming Tyler Ferguson will be optioned to Iowa to make room on the active roster; we’ll find out for sure later today.) Ryan Gusto starts for Miami. Game time Saturday is 3:10 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Rays last night 7-6.

Evan Grant writes about the Rangers’ comeback that fell short and where it leaves them the playoff hunt

Kennedi Landry writes about the continued struggles of Kumar Rocker.

Corey Seager swings at a lot of first pitches and other teams are taking advantage.

Caden Scarborough has been shut down for the year with an elbow issue.

Grant has injury updates on several Rangers, including Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Jung.

He also has an update on Sebastian Walcott.

The Rangers released their 2027 spring training schedule, so there’s that.

And finally Skip Schumaker hisself is the latest guest on the DMN Rangers podcast.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers take on the Rays again tonight at 5:05 with Jacob deGrom on the hill for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

Chris Sale has needed to counter Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Brandon Pfaadt, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob Misiorowski in the last month. While the Braves haven’t beaten them all with Sale leading the way, the results have been terrific.

How about 67 strikeouts, 4 walks and 1 home run allowed in 52 innings pitched in the second half? He had a second half FIP of 0.88 coming into last night’s game. My back-of-the-envelope math says it is 1.23 right now. I checked back to 1974, which is far as I could check via Fangraphs. That is the lowest second-half FIP of any Braves starting pitcher in that time span. I mean, Greg Maddux was transcendent, but he can’t hang with a 67/4 walk-to-strikeout ratio (at least not very often). Though a 1.23 FIP is not the lowest in the second half for players with 20 innings pitched. Paul Assenmacher has a second half FIP of 0.78 in 1989. He somehow didn’t give up a dinger in that huge home run year.

So is Chris Sale having the best second half season in Braves history? The first player that I thought might have beaten it was John Smoltz in 1991. But I feel that his second half felt amazing because of how poor he was in the first half, and he helped lead the Braves to the World Series. If his run continues, I think it might be Sale’s honor to grab and maybe pick up another Cy Young in the process.

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Today's MLB player props home run analysis will focus on three well-known sluggers. 

Juan Soto is first, followed by NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, and last year's HR king, Cal Raleigh, who is starting to wake up. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Juan Soto	24%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	20%

Home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)

Juan Soto is a strong home run target thanks to his current batted-ball profile. The New York Mets slugger has gone deep twice over the last week while posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate.

His 24.4-degree average launch angle has also translated into a massive 64.3% fly-ball rate, giving him plenty of lift.

Anthony Molina has allowed two homers over his last three appearances and plenty of air contact recently, while the San Francisco Giants bullpen is not untouchable.

Soto has multiple paths to leave Citi Field.

Play this pick down to 28%.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area

Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (26%)

Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to show why he belongs in the NL MVP conversation. The slugger has smacked six home runs over his last six games while posting an eye-popping .667 ISO.

PCA has a 55% fly-ball rate during that span, and 54.5% of those fly balls have left the yard. That is not a typo. He also owns a 30% barrel rate over the last week, showing he is consistently squaring up the baseball.

Ryan Gusto has had home run issues at times this season, and the Miami Marlins’ relief corps has also given up 1.23 HR/9 over its last 22 frames.

PCA has two clear paths to another bomb.

Play this pick up to 25%.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network

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The Giants out hit the Mets 12 to 9, and outwalked them 6 to 4. They had 14 opportunities with at least one runner in scoring position with four hits; the Mets had just two in eight. San Francisco had one Rafael Devers, who went 3-for-4 with 5 RBIs, New York had no Devers. 

What the Mets had, in outscoring the Giants 10 to 6, were homers. Five of them. And, as us baseball-savvy people know, homers are a good way to score runs. Guaranteed, ya know? One swing, one run at least. Efficient. Quick, majestic sparks that momentarily defy the rules of the world that keep us all earth bound, that force the opposing team to crane their necks and visibly deflate as it rises.

Four batters into the bottom half of the 1st inning, Mark Vientos put New York up by three runs, and the recently re-inflated Giants were back to losing air.  

By the end of the 2nd, things had gotten worse. The Mets were up by 7. Francisco Alvarez back-spun a Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson four-seamer over the right field wall with one out. A walk, a balk, and fielding error by Christian Koss (a real 2026 special) set the table for another run to score on a fielder’s choice before Bo Bichette showed another baseball the door.

That long ball proved to be the decisive coup. Seven runs in — a total that proved out of reach despite the Giants offense putting up a fight against starter Nolan McLean through the middle frames. The fact that McLean had a sweat going, that his adrenaline coursed out of him in one throat-straining, expletive-laced holler of triumph when he froze Christian Koss to end the 6th, as if he just fanned Shohei Ohtani with the bases-loaded in the NLCS, is a testament to the offense’s prickliness.

The adjective “spunk” was used in the broadcast booth to describe the fight of this young, ragtag group: Rafy Devers and the Boys. This kind of outburst from a man who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June. McLean strolled onto the mound Friday night having allowed just two runs over his last four starts (25 IP). He had completed six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, and yet the Giants bats, even down five runs, were under his skin. They made him work.  At least two runners reached base in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings. The right-hander needed 30 pitches to get through the 3rd. Turner Hill was a pest. He couldn’t figure out a way to retire Devers, who walked in the 1st, led-off the 5th with a double, and scored two with a double in the 3rd. 

The offense had McLean in the pot. Things simmered, just never boiled. Jung Hoo Lee was a factor there.

Previous trips to the Big City, Lee’s performances had sports writers giddy with Broadway puns: Lee on the marquee; Lee in lights; Lee belting out the hits. I took it a step further after a power outburst in Yankee Stadium, suggesting his bat somehow dictated the barometric pressure over the Bronx. On his last trip to Flushing, Lee collected seven hits over a three game series. 

Not so on Friday night. His at-bats didn’t ratchet up the pressure, they let it dissipate. They didn’t bring the storm for the Giants, rather quelled it for the Mets.

Batting with two on and two out in the 3rd (a split he’s hitting over .300 in), Lee rolled a ground ball to second to end the inning. In the 5th, with the bases loaded and nobody out, a situation primed for Lee’s contact skills to shine, McLean three-pitched him. Perhaps expecting McLean’s devastating and deceptive “no-hump” curveball, Lee ended up watching two sinkers zip by right over the middle of the plate Three pitches later Drew Cavanaugh rolled into a rally-killing double play. Facing lefty reliever Jefry Yan in the 7th, he fanned again with runners on. 

That’s seven stranded in total for Lee. The team collectively would leave 11 on base. Unproductive outs kill: they struck out 11 times, compared to New York’s 4.

Devers’ RBI double would be the only runs against McLean. He’d deliver the only other significant swing for San Francisco five innings later in the 8th when his 8-pitch scruff with Austin Warren ended with another baseball deposited in the bleachers. 

But that was all that could be mustered. San Francisco peaked at six runs, laboriously building and rebuilding momentum, while New York jumped out ahead and never had to look back. Their offense front-loaded their work against Wilkinson, and against a respectable Yunior Marte (3 ER, 5 IP), lazily extended their lead with ho-hum homers from Francisco Lindor and Alvarez in the 6th and 8th.

Devers’s two run double, his three run homer —it was all just catch-up. Despite the obvious will he exerted on the field — picking a tough, in-between hop in an attempt to start a desperately needed double play; swearing at himself in the dugout after being retired for the first, and only time; fouling off pitch-after-2-strike-pitch against Warren, reacting to each offering “missed” by slapping his helmet to his thigh, chastising the barrel of his bat — the red-hot vet could only make up ground, not pull his team level. One swing can only do so much when you’re fighting gravity, a fight the Giants were in since the 1st, and have been in for months now.

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The Cleveland Guardians (59%) have beaten up on sub .500 teams this season, posting a strong 46-32 record when they host the Detroit Tigers. 

With a more in-form offense and a high-end starting pitcher taking the mound, my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks are backing Cleveland to clinch a series victory with another win tonight.

Who will win Tigers vs Guardians today: Cleveland Guardians (60%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

To say the Detroit Tigers are struggling against left-handed pitching would be an understatement. 

They’ve hit just .219 over the past month while striking out more than 25% of the time. Their advanced numbers are equally as alarming, with the offense sitting 29th in xwOBA.

Now they draw Parker Messick, who ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value. Not a great spot to get off the mat.

The Cleveland Guardians slot eighth in xwOBA against lefties the last 30 days, and showed the ability to get to Detroit’s bullpen in two come-from-behind wins Friday.

Back the Guardians to 61%.

COVERS INTEL: Messick's 91st percentile barrel rate should play extremely well against a Tigers lineup sitting last in barrel% vs. lefties over the last month.

Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (58%)

Messick is a tough nut to crack for any offense, but he’s made life especially miserable when facing poor offenses.

He has faced eight Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. lefties. The results are remarkably good, with Messick allowing two runs or less in all eight.

I don’t see Detroit scoring much in this spot, which puts a lot of pressure on the Guardians.

Framber Valdez is an elite ground ball generator, and his barrel rate has improved to 5.1% over the past 30 days. 

He shouldn’t give up much power, making the Under attractive up to 60%.

Tigers vs Guardians home run prediction: Jo Adell (17%)

Jo Adell crushes left-handed pitching. He has managed a .278 ISO and .949 OPS this year, and his numbers are trending even further upwards.

He has hit .342 with a .368 ISO and 19.2% barrel rate against southpaws over his last 25 games. Those outputs are out of this world.

Adell also has a great track record against Valdez, going 7-25 (.280 BA) with five extra-base hits. 

Valdez’ high-ground ball rate does not scare me in this matchup.

Tigers vs Guardians weather

Temperatures are expected to sit in the low 70s with winds blowing in. Advantage to the pitchers.

Tigers vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Tigers 42% | Guardians 59%
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (61%) | Guardians -1.5 (40%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)

Tigers vs Guardians trend

Cleveland has won nine of the past 13 games (+3.90 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.

How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info

Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries

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As the Yankees enter the season’s final month, a bullpen that’s been a strength throughout the year is running on fumes. Injuries to Fernando Cruz and Kervin Castro have further strained an already thin unit, forcing the Yankees to get creative in adding some veteran talent from outside their organization for the stretch run.

As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward using the following ranking system:

• 5: As confident as one can be in a reliever, the most fickle position in baseball
• 4: High degree of confidence, but some trepidation remains
• 3: Glass half full or glass half empty? The choice is yours
• 2: Major concerns here, though perhaps a glimmer of hope
• 1: Absolute zero — usually reserved for those with a minimal track record

Statistics below are from August 6-September 2.

The Closer

David Bednar

Recent stats: 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 11 SO, 1.60 FIP, 6 Saves (in 7 opportunities)

After a couple of days off and with the rest of the bullpen gassed, Bednar came in to eat the eighth inning of what was then a 7-1 blowout at the hands of the Angels on Monday. He allowed three runs, inflating his stats in garbage time. The right-hander allowed only one other earned run all August, though, cementing his status as one of the game’s most reliable closers.

Confidence level: 5

No one in baseball has finished more games than Bednar’s 50 this year, and he’s done it while blowing just three saves. He isn’t as flashy as some of the game’s other elite late-inning arms, but he’s been as effective as any of them.

The Set-Up Men

Brent Headrick

Recent stats: 12 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 SO, 2.76 FIP

It’s been a choppier month than we’ve seen before from Headrick this year. Opponents hit .345 with a 1.015 OPS against him in August, a red flag for a pitcher who’s made the second-most appearances in baseball. Still, even after his uneven stretch, the southpaw’s ERA sits below 2.00.

Confidence level: 5

Headrick has shown enough to receive the benefit of the doubt here. Especially after the injury to Cruz, who was among MLB’s most-used relievers before his injury, fatigue is a legitimate concern. But in a tight AL East race, expect Boone to continue deploying his fireman in big spots.

Paul Blackburn

Recent stats: 15.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 14 SO, 2.27 FIP

It’s been a rapid ascent for Blackburn, who began the season as the last man out of the bullpen and is now one of Boone’s most trusted relievers. He hasn’t skipped a beat since moving into a high-leverage role, allowing no earned runs across his last 16 appearances dating back to late July.

Confidence level: 4

Like other Yankees reclamation projects before him, Blackburn has been able to leverage his sinker into a skyrocketing ground ball rate. There’s no reason at this point to believe the tweaks he’s made are not sustainable.

The Middle Relievers

Michael Fulmer

Recent stats: 3.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 4 SO, 6.10 FIP

A week and change ago, Fulmer was out of a job after the Angels cut him loose. Now, he’s the Yankees’ new shiny toy, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman relaying that the team feels they saw things in his video that other teams missed. With a dearth of options, he’s been thrown right into the fire. The early results have not been encouraging.

Confidence level: 2

Fulmer has only made four appearance for the Yankees, so it’s too soon to say how valuable he will be. Any return to form would be a remarkable comeback for the 33-year-old, who’s appeared only sporadically in MLB since 2023.

Tim Hill

Recent stats: 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3 SO, 4.40 FIP

Formerly ol’ reliable in this column, Hill’s stock took a major hit after a disastrous run from mid-May through mid-July in which he allowed 18 runs in 18 innings. He’s been better since, deployed strategically in mostly in lower-leverage spots.

Confidence level: 3

Hill is not a back-end reliever, and that should be OK. The crafty lefty still serves a useful role, particularly against lefty batters, who are hitting .205 with a .575 OPS against him this year.

John Schreiber

Recent stats: 8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 5 SO, 3.33 FIP (with Kansas City and New York)

Another new kid on the block, Schreiber made his Yankees debut on Tuesday, pitching a clean ninth to close out a victory against the Angels. The 32-year-old brings with him a long track record of steady bullpen performance, including this season. Schreiber posted a 3.65 ERA and 117 ERA+ in 56 appearances with Kansas City before they placed him on waivers as they drifted out of contention.

Confidence level: 2.5

Some of Schreiber’s underlying metrics — including a .254 BABIP and 36:22 K:BB ratio with Kansas City — are cause for concern. Still, considering the Yankees got him for nothing, he’s a quality pickup given the slim pickings at this point in the season.

The Long Reliever

Ryan Yarbrough

Recent stats: 9 IP, 5.00 ERA, 9 SO, 2.10 FIP

Yarbrough has been something of a shadow starter for most of the season, appearing once a week or so to pitch multiple innings in relief and then retreating to obscurity in the bullpen. A four-run blowup against the Red Sox last week jumped his season ERA nearly a half-run, underscoring the limits of his bag of tricks.

Confidence index: 2.5

Come playoff time, Yarbrough should only be seeing action if a game is out of hand. He’s been a perfectly serviceable placeholder this year, helping eat innings in a bullpen that’s seen its high performers used frequently.

The Mop-Up Man

Luis Gil

Recent stats: 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 12 SO (including minor leagues)

Gil’s wilderness period is over. After a disastrous start to the year for the Yankees and nearly four months spent on the IL, the team decided to bring their former Rookie of the Year back in a relief role. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings across five appearances in the minors, and he made his return to the big leagues last Monday, allowing one run in two innings of work.

Confidence level: 1

Gil’s is such a bizarre case that it’s difficult to place any stock in him. While unquestionably talented, the 27-year-old has endured consecutive lost seasons. Until he can prove otherwise, his superlative 2024 campaign is the clear outlier. Time will tell if he can reinvent himself in his new role.

Meet the Mets

The Amazins opened a series against one of the few teams in the National League with a worse record than them in the San Francisco Giants, and they proved to be the superior mediocre team in game one with a 10-6 victory. Nolan McLean tossed six innings while giving up just two runs, and the Mets’ bats slugged a whopping five homers—including two from Francisco Alvarez.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, MLB.com

The Mets officially announced that Jonah Tong will be recalled to the major leagues for a start on Monday.

David Stearns expressed optimism about the young core that has been propelling the Mets to their decent run over the past month.

Stearns also offered some comments on the team’s tentative thoughts regarding the 2027 infield.

The plan remains for Andy Green to return to the front office at season’s end, when a search for a full-time manager will begin.

A.J. Ewing sat last night as he continues to endure a rough second half.

The Mets may have traded away half their relief corps at the deadline, but the bullpen has actually performed better since then.

The Mets revealed their tentative 2027 spring training schedule which may very well be impacted by the impending lockout.

Around the National League East

The Braves further cemented their NL East lead with a 5-2 win over the Phillies.

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller will finally take the field today after dealing with a back injury all season.

The Marlins’s effort to get themselves into the playoff picture took a hit with a 6-1 loss to the Cubs.

The Nationals fell to the Dodgers 5-3 despite some promising performances from a couple of their young pitchers.

Around Major League Baseball

The mighty Dodgers are facing some questions heading into the postseason.

This year’s playoff race has been impacted by numerous stars having down seasons compared to last year.

Arte Moreno is no longer the owner of the Angels after several years of meddling dragged the organization down.

CBS Sports published a thought-provoking article about Driveline and its hitting philosophy which has taken over many MLB clubs—for good and for ill.

Shohei Ohtani missed another game last night and might have an IL stint in his future.

The Rays have suffered a serious injury blow, as Shane McClanahan is hitting the injured list due to forearm tightness.

Justin Verlander is still determined to make his return to the mound for the Tigers before the end of the season.

The Yankees announced some of their plans for how they will commemorate the 25th anniversary of 9/11 this year.

Trent Grisham exited last night’s game with a right hamstring injury that could sideline him for a bit.

Minor league theme nights are all the rage these days, and one New Jersey team got in on the fun with a Sopranos themed night.

The Mets may have had a tough season, but at least they haven’t lost 40 consecutive games like the Red Pocket Mobiles in the Pioneer League.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore previewed the weekend battle of not-so-giants featuring the Giants.

Joe Sokolowski provided his weekly installment of This Week in Mets Quotes.

The A Pod of Their Own crew discussed the expanded roster and everything else going on with the Mets this week on their latest episode.

This Date in Mets History

Rubén Tejada hit the first of what would be ten career major league home runs on this date in 2010.

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The New York Mets are priced as a heavy 64% moneyline favorite for today's game at Citi Field against the San Francisco Giants, with Zac Thornton on the hill. 

With Thornton consistently inducing weak contact, my Giants vs. Mets predictions are eyeing New York to grab their third straight victory. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5. 

Who will win Giants vs Mets today: Mets (65%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Zac Thornton has been excellent for the New York Mets, giving them a strong starting point tonight. Across his last 11 1/3 innings, the rookie owns a 2.91 FIP while holding opponents to a 28.6% hard-hit rate and 2.9% barrel rate.

The San Francisco Giants are in respectable offensive form, but they have struggled badly against left-handers, posting an 85 wRC+ this season.

Anthony Molina has held his own lately with a 3.80 xERA over his last two outings, but he does not typically work deep.

That brings the Giants’ bullpen in early, and the Mets’ offense owns a 103 wRC+ recently after scoring 20 runs over its last two games.

New York has the edge.

Play up to 65%.

COVERS INTEL: Thornton has walked just1.80 batters per nine innings at home this season, showing stronger command than his 2.53 road BB/9. That control should matter against a Giants lineup that is vulnerable vs lefties. 

Giants vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)

I’m leaning Over 7.5 here, even with San Francisco’s issues against left-handed pitching.

Both offenses are sitting slightly above league average lately, and New York’s lineup has clearly woken up. The Mets also get an early look at Molina before San Francisco’s bullpen is forced into action.

Neither relief corps is falling apart, with New York posting a 3.87 FIP over its last 44 innings and San Francisco sitting in a similar range recently.

However, at 7.5, the number is low enough for one productive Mets night to carry this Over.

Play this pick up to 58%.

Giants vs Mets home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)

Juan Soto is a great play today.

The slugger has posted loud numbers lately, smacking two homers in the last week with a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate. On top of that, his average launch angle during that span sits at 24.4 degrees.

That has translated to an impressive 64.3% FB rate, and Molina has allowed two bombs in his last three appearances. The righty has also allowed 56% of his contact through the air in the last two weeks, and the Giants' pen isn't untouchable, either. 

Play down to 28%. 

Giants vs Mets weather

Weather at Citi Field looks clean for first pitch, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 80°F to 76°F. Winds sit around 8–9 mph, and rain chances are minimal at 0–2%. No delay concerns, with mostly neutral hitting conditions.

Giants vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Giants 37% | Mets 64%
• Run line: Giants +1.5 (56%) | Mets -1.5 (45%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (54%) | Under 7.5 (45%)

Giants vs Mets trend

The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Mets.

How to watch Giants vs Mets and game info

Giants vs Mets latest injuries

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