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With the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline just a week away, questions abound about whether or not the Pittsburgh Pirates will be buyers or sellers. The Bucs currently sit at 54-52 and are just a single game out of the Wild Card spot.

There have been rumors that Oneil Cruz is on the market, making the Bucs sellers, but a Ben Cherington quote from Sunday actually leads one to believe that the Bucs are buying. Here’s what BCGM had to say:

“We’re at a point in the season now where it’s a pretty good foundation. We know a lot about the team. It’s hard to imagine that much would happen in the next week to eight days that would really shift it in one way or another,” 

“I think we’re pretty well into it by now. So, I think it’s pretty clear what we’re going to try to do, and I don’t expect that an outcome day to day between now and then is going to change it much.”

“We have the resources to win games and be playing baseball in October. We have to go do our jobs, and I don’t think anything’s changed. We believe this team is capable of doing that. We gotta continue to do the work to actually make that a reality.”

So from the sounds of that, it seems like Cherington is ready to buy for the Bucs playoff chances as we head into this last week before the deadline. The Bucs could certainly use more bullpen help. Another bat could make a difference with all of the injuries the Bucs have had, but the most important piece heading down the stretch is another arm.

So what do you think about Cherington’s comments, BD? Are the Pirates going to be buyers in this last week? Or is that simply lip service by the Bucs GM? Has he painted himself in a corner here? What happens now if the Bucs don’t make major moves?

Tell us your thoughts!

The Angels are reportedly open for business, so let’s talk about a frequently mentioned potential Guardians’ trade target: Jo Adell.

Adell’s role is clear – he is a strictly platoon hitter put on the earth to mash lefty pitching. This season, despite having a 92 wRC+ overall, the 27 year-old right handed hitter has a 164 wRC+ against lefties. For his career, he has a 118 wRC+ against lefties including a .505 slugging percentage, including a 152 wRC+ against LHP from 2024-2026. He’s a below average fielder in the corner outfield positions, but not unplayable out there.

The Red Sox just traded a promising starting pitching prospect in Connelly Early for a right-handed hitter in Curtis Mead… so the price for lefty mashers is high. Now, Mead is under control through 2031 and Adell is only under control through 2027, so the price to acquire Adell should be significantly lower. The Guardians should be able to get Adell without touching a top five prospect in their system. The system is still deep enough to get the Angels an arm or a bat in prospect capital or even both that would make moving Adell the sensible move. And, under the new GM, the Angels may be willing to be senisble! Immediately, the Guardians could then let go of David Fry and get Adell AB’s in left, right and at DH against LHP.

The news this morning is that the Guardians are pursuing hitters, with some potential interest in a reunion with Lane Thomas who is currently on a heater with the Royals. I would much prefer they get a younger version of Thomas’s lefty mashing in Adell and let Stephen Vogt do his best platooning/pinch-hitting to get Adell the maximum amount of at-bats against the southpaws teams keep leveraging against Cleveland.

Let me know what you think about Adell in the comments below!

Texas Rangers lineup for July 27, 2026 against the Seattle Mariners: starting pitchers are Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and George Kirby for the Mariners.

The Rangers play the finale of both the series against the Mariners and their seven game homestand in a rare Monday matinee game today. If the Rangers win, they go to 2.5 up on Seattle in the division, and will have won the series and have a winning homestand. If the Rangers lose, they will be just 0.5 up on Seattle in the division, and will have split the series and have a losing homestand.

So let’s try to win this one.

The lineup:

Pederson — DH

Langford — LF

Duran — SS

Nimmo — RF

Carter — CF

Burger — 1B

Lopez — 2B

Smith — 3B

Diaz — C

1:35 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +111 underdogs.

Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing some of the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. Without further ado, let the stat party begin.

MONDAY

Freddy Peralta made his 85th start at American Family Field in Milwaukee, marking the third-most all-time at the ballpark behind Ben Sheets (113) and Yovani Gallardo (108).

The homecoming didn’t quite go as planned, as Peralta surrendered five or more earned runs for the fourth time this season. That’s already the most such games Peralta has had in any season of his career.

Jacob Misiorowski fired 26 pitches at 100+ mph against the Mets. That’s the second-most 100+ mph pitches the Mets have seen from a single pitcher in a single game in the Statcast era (since 2015), trailing only Hunter Greene’s 30 in Cincinnati on September 7, 2025.

TUESDAY

Zac Thornton has now thrown 18 consecutive scoreless innings, the most by a Mets rookie since Steven Matz’s 19 from May 20-May 31, 2016, a streak that began against the Brewers. (credit: Jolly Olive)

After returning from the IL on Monday, Luis Robert Jr. wasted no time showing off his talents, crushing a homer with an exit velocity of 112.2 mph and a Statcast-projected distance of 451 feet. That’s the Mets’ hardest-hit homer of the season, and tied for their longest with Brett Baty’s homer off Jake Irvin in Washington on May 18.

The Mets earned just their second regular-season win at American Family Field since September 21, 2022, having gone through a 1-10 stretch at the ballpark. Their other win also came via a shutout started by a left-handed pitcher, when David Peterson went seven scoreless to save the bullpen during Game 160 on September 29, 2024.

WEDNESDAY

Logan Henderson generated nine whiffs against the Mets via his changeup. That’s the most whiffs the Mets have had on an opposing pitcher’s changeup since whiffing nine times facing Cristopher Sánchez’s changeup on September 15, 2024.

FRIDAY

Francisco Alvarez hit his 60th career home run, tying John Milner for the fourth-most by a Met before their 25th birthday behind Darryl Strawberry (108), David Wright (97), and Ed Kranepool (62).

Roki Sasaki racked up 21 whiffs against the Mets. Only three other pitchers have recorded 21+ whiffs in a game against the Mets this season. Two of them are fellow Dodgers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (23 on April 14) and Shohei Ohtani (22 on April 15), while the other is Logan Gilbert (21 on June 2).

SATURDAY

Nolan McLean posted his fifth consecutive quality start, the most by a Met since David Peterson (5) from July 3-August 1, 2025, and the most by a Met right-hander since Kodai Senga (8) from August 7-September 20, 2023. It was also McLean’s seventh consecutive start in which he completed at least six innings, the longest such streak by a Met since Sean Manaea (8) from August 16-September 21, 2024.

McLean registered eight whiffs via his curveball. No Met right-hander has recorded that many whiffs on pitches classified as curveballs since Noah Syndergaard on August 19, 2015, in Baltimore.

Freddie Freeman seventh-inning single marked his 250th career hit vs. the Mets, ranking ninth all-time behind Pete Rose (396), Lou Brock (289), Jimmy Rollins (281), Chipper Jones (265), Tony Gwynn (263), Willie Davis (256), Andre Dawson (256), and Larry Bowa (254). Freeman would record his 251st and 252nd hits against the Mets on Sunday.

Freeman also recorded his 75th career multi-hit game against the Mets, the sixth-most all-time behind Pete Rose (113), Jimmy Rollins (84), Tony Gwynn (81), Chipper Jones (81), and Lou Brock (78). Freeman would record his 76th multi-hit performance against the Mets the next day.

SUNDAY

Tyrone Taylor hit a three-run homer in the sixth, while Marcus Semien hit a three-run homer in the seventh. It’s the first time the Mets hit multiple three-run homers or grand slams in the same game since August 29, 2025, when Brandon Nimmo and Luis Torrens each hit three-run shots in a 19-9 rout over the Marlins at Citi Field. It was the first time the Mets hit a three-run homer or grand slam in back-to-back innings since April 28, 2025 in Washington, when Brandon Nimmo hit a three-run homer in the sixth and a grand slam in the seventh.

Only two Mets have hit multiple three-run homers this season. One is Juan Soto, who has two three-run shots out of 21 homers overall. The other is Tyrone Taylor, who has three three-run shots out of just eight homers overall.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:

Zac Thornton ranks second on the Mets’ all-time strikeout leaderboard among pitchers with his homophonic first name:

Zack Wheeler (726)
Zac Thornton (17)
Zach Muckenhirn (3)

Honorable mentions to Pat Zachry (391) and Anthony Swarzak (31).

The MLB 2026 trade deadline of Monday, August 3 at 4:00 p.m. MDT is fast approaching.

Rumors suggest that in addition to trading Seth Halvorsen to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Colorado Rockies plan to be very active this year. Here’s what Bob Nightengale wrote yesterday:

The Colorado Rockies will be popular at the trade deadline. They are letting teams know that pitchers Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano are available, as well as position players Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy and Willi Castro.

Historically, we’ve limited trade-deadline discussion threads to just prior to the deadline, but this is a new front office that appears to be in the mood to deal, so we thought we’d try a daily thread this year in the week leading up to the deadline.

As the day progresses, we’ll keep this tracker updated with the most pertinent rumors and the biggest deals that come to fruition. We’ll also post a new thread daily through Monday.

The Colorado Rockies have an off-day, but there will (hopefully!) be plenty of action off the field.

Rumors of the day

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

As many of you know, my dad lives in San Francisco and I visit him often.

Thus I was in San Francisco this past weekend while the Cubs were in Pittsburgh, and I took the opportunity to go to the Giants/Angels game Saturday at Oracle Park. Mainly just because I love baseball — and I must love it a lot to go see two of the worst teams in baseball play — but also to check out Robbie Ray, who started for the Giants on Saturday and who is almost certainly on the trade market.

Ray is 34 and has had an up-and-down career. He threw pretty well for the Diamondbacks for a number of years, then was traded to the Blue Jays during the pandemic season in 2020. Staying in Toronto in 2021, he had a breakout season and won the AL Cy Young Award.

That got him a multi-year deal with the Mariners, where he had one decent year and then got hurt. He had Tommy John surgery and made only one start in 2023, then was traded to the Giants where he made just seven starts in 2024.

Returned to health, Ray had a good year in 2025 and is doing that again this year. And he’s been really good over his last six starts: 1.06 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, only one home run in 43.1 innings.

Ray threw six shutout innings against the Angels Saturday and it looked effortless. Okay, so Angels, they’re not very good. Mike Trout was the only Angel who did anything much against Ray, two singles and a walk.

Ray’s ERA away from Oracle Park is 4.35, which is a bit scary until you notice that it’s skewed by one really bad start at Chase Field (nine earned runs in 4.1 innings). In his nine other road starts he has a 3.07 ERA, so I think he’d be just fine pitching for the Cubs.

Ray is a pending free agent who is making $25 million this year. That would leave somewhere around $8 million or so remaining on his deal. The Cubs can afford to take that on, and if they did they’d likely not have to send much of a prospect to the Giants in return.

I asked Josh to help me out here because I have no idea what the Giants would ask for, or could get, for two months of Robbie Ray. He suggested Will Sanders and Angel Cepeda, and sure, I’d do that.

What would you send to the Giants for Robbie Ray?

Should the Detroit Tigers decide to keep Tarik Skubal through the August 3 trade deadline without signing him to a contract extension, they will still face one of the most complicated roster decisions of the Scott Harris era. As discussed previously, should Skubal decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere this winter, the Tigers would receive very different compensation depending upon one critical factor: whether they finish the 2026 season above or below the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

For a revenue-sharing recipient like Detroit, remaining below the threshold means receiving a supplemental first-round draft pick. Finishing above it drops that compensation all the way to a pick after the fourth round. That makes every dollar matter.

Based on the best publicly available payroll tracking, the Tigers currently project to finish the season with a Competitive Balance Tax payroll between approximately $245.6 million and $246 million. That puts them roughly $2 million above the $244 million threshold. This is according to Cot’s contracts, and MLBR’s payroll tracker. (Note: Roster Resource and Spotrac do not exactly track each roster move during the season).

The luxury tax itself is almost insignificant. The Tigers would owe only about $300,000.

The real penalty is losing one of the most valuable draft picks available under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

With only 58 days remaining in the regular season, Detroit doesn’t need to eliminate $2 million in annual salary. It needs to remove approximately $6.3 million in annual salary from its books for the remainder of the season to net the prorated salary of $2 million. Any salary acquired before the deadline increases that number.

That’s where the problem begins.

Only eight players besides Skubal earn enough this season to accomplish the task by themselves:

• Javier Baez
• Gleyber Torres
• Framber Valdez
• Jack Flaherty
• Kenley Jansen
• Kyle Finnegan
• Justin Verlander
• Drew Anderson

Even trading Casey Mize would fall just short, despite his $6.15 million salary, because they’d only be clearing his salary over the final 54 days of the season. Trading Anderson who receives $7 million for the season, would clear enough salary, as long as they don’t add any salary back for the rest of the season. As erratic as he’s been, the Tigers do not have any notable relief options in Toledo other than possibly Beau Brieske if he can get it going.

Unfortunately for Scott Harris, identifying contracts isn’t the difficult part.

Finding one he can move without damaging the team and taking them completely out of the wild card and divisional hunts is the problem.

No one is trading for Justin Verlander and he’s currently still injured. Javier Baez is not worth his contract much less any surplus value. Jack Flaherty is really the ideal candidate for a move like this and trading him could both clear enough payroll and return a decent prospect as well. Unfortunately, he too is currently on the injured list. Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan have both experienced uneven stretches this season, but the Tigers also need reliable late-inning relief if they hope to make a deep October run.

That leaves Gleyber Torres.

From a payroll standpoint, Torres is the cleanest solution. His $6.8 million salary would move Detroit comfortably below the CBT threshold, assuming little salary comes back in return. As an impending free agent, he also represents one of the club’s few veterans with meaningful trade value.

The baseball decision is much more difficult.

Torres has been one of Detroit’s best hitters this season, posting a 128 wRC+, one of only four Tigers above league average offensively. The Tigers could replace him internally with a combination of Javier Baez, Colt Keith and Zack McKinstry, but the numbers suggest that would be a downgrade in the lineup during a pennant race.

That’s the Catch-22.

If the Tigers keep Tarik Skubal, they are signaling that 2026 is about winning a championship, not maximizing long-term assets. Yet preserving the supplemental first-round compensation pick for a potential Skubal departure may require subtracting from the very roster they believe can win that championship.

The irony is that Scott Harris may have to act as both buyer and seller.

The ideal trade wouldn’t simply reduce payroll. It would reduce payroll while returning a player capable of helping Detroit win now. Every dollar of salary taken back, however, chips away at the payroll savings, making the balancing act even more difficult.

A supplemental first-round draft pick is hardly insignificant. Kevin McGonigle and Nick Castellanos both entered the organization through compensation selections. If both Skubal and Casey Mize ultimately declined qualifying offers and signed contracts exceeding $50 million elsewhere, Detroit could receive two supplemental first-round picks—but only if it finishes below the CBT threshold.

Payroll calculations themselves remain an inexact science. Cot’s Contracts attempts to track individual player obligations throughout the season and currently places Detroit around $246 million. MLB Trade Rumors maintains a tracker that estimates approximately $245.6 million. Major League Baseball’s official CBT accounting won’t be finalized until after the season and includes estimates for player benefits, bonuses, and other adjustments that aren’t publicly available. That uncertainty alone gives Detroit every reason to create a cushion rather than trying to finish a few thousand dollars below the line.

Payroll for CBT purposes differs from current MLB payroll in three main respects:

CBT payroll uses average annual value of multi year contracts, as well as all the salaries of players on the 40 man roster and those who were on the roster but have since been removed, and the calculation includes an estimated $18 million for the club’s share of player benefits plus their $1.6 million share of the pre arbitration bonus pool.

In case you’re wondering about the impact of the pending lockout of the players as MLB owners or sue a salary cap, don’t expect any changes to this year’s free agent class in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Even the proposals that both sides have made thus far would leave the current system in place for this winter.

For that reason, don’t be surprised if the Tigers make a move that seems puzzling at first glance. A trade motivated in part by payroll management may not bring back a headline prospect or even equal on-field value. The goal may simply be to thread the needle: stay below the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, preserve a supplemental first-round draft pick, and still field the strongest possible team for what they hope will be a long October. Or, they could make the obvious move and trade Tarik Skubal for pitching help, opening enough payroll space in order to make a trade to fill other needs and try to sneak into the playoffs anyway without their ace.

The Atlanta Braves' grip on the National League East loosened as they weathered the absence of Ronald Acuña Jr. Now, the former NL MVP is back, just as they started to flourish without him.

The Braves activated Acuña from the injured list ahead of their Monday, July 27 game at the New York Mets, ending his 38-game absence from the lineup while he recovered from a left hamstring strain.

Acuña was hurt June 9, and the Braves held a nine-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the East. The Braves dropped 12 of their first 16 games without their leadoff hitter, and the Phillies cut the lead down to two games on multiple occasions.

But Atlanta has won 13 of its past 22 and steadily built its East margin back up to 5 1/2 games. The club is expected to pursue pitching upgrades and perhaps explore shortstop options as the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches.

Twelve years ago today:

The Blue Jays acquired Colby Rasmus in a multi-player deal.

The transaction unfolded in two distinct acts.

Act One:

Toronto sent veteran reliever Jason Frasor and prospect Zach Stewart to the White Sox in exchange for pitcher Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen—who was nearly Canadian, given his father’s Ontario roots and his stint with Team Canada in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Teahen finished the season with the Blue Jays, posting a .190/.261/.286 line over 27 games, which marked the end of his MLB career.

Frasor returned to Toronto for the 2012 season, then played for the Rangers, Royals, and Braves before retiring after 2015. He still holds the franchise record for most games pitched, with 505 appearances—a mark unlikely to be challenged soon (Yimi Garcia is our active leader at 185 game).

Stewart struggled in the majors, pitching 103 innings with a 6.82 ERA.

Act Two:

A few hours later, Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson, and Marc Rzepczynski were traded to St. Louis in exchange for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller,Brian Tallet, and P.J. Walters.

The Cardinals wanted to strengthen their bullpen, and manager Tony La Russa had grown weary of Rasmus. Colby was, for lack of a better word, unique. His personality couldn’t have been more different from La Russa’s. La Russa was outspoken about Colby, and Colby wasn’t one to ignore criticism.

For GM Alex Anthopoulos, the trade was an opportunity to buy low on a talented player.

Jackson went 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for the Cardinals post-trade. In the playoffs, he started four games, posting a 1-1 record and a 5.60 ERA over 17.2 innings. After the season, Edwin signed with the Nationals as a free agent and went on to pitch for numerous teams—including the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Padres, Orioles, Nationals (again), Blue Jays (briefly), and Tigers—before concluding his 17-year MLB career.

Dotel posted a 3.28 ERA in 29 games with the Cardinals. He signed with the Tigers for 2012, had a strong season, but was out of baseball after struggling early in 2013.

Rzepczynski—or ‘Scrabble’—had a 3.97 ERA in 28 appearances for the Cardinals in 2011. He stayed with them through 2012 but was traded to Cleveland after a rocky start in 2013. Marc later pitched for the Padres, A’s, Nationals, Mariners, and returned to Cleveland, last appearing in the majors in 2018.

Patterson wasn’t among my favourite Blue Jays. He struggled offensively (.287 OBP at the time), had questionable defense in left field, and wasn’t a strong base runner (13 steals, caught 8 times). He often swung at pitches over his head—occasionally connecting—but, surprisingly, many preferred him to Edwin Encarnacion at the time. After the trade, Corey hit .157/.189/.235 in 44 games for the Cardinals, marking the end of his MLB career.

As for Colby, he never became a star, but he was a solid contributor. Over four seasons, he played 408 games for Toronto, hitting .234/.295/.433 with 66 home runs. His best year came in 2013, when he hit .276/.338/.501 with 22 homers.

I was a fan, perhaps because I appreciate players who don’t quite fit the mold. I’ll always have a soft spot for him. He sometimes struggled with the pressures and relentless criticism of MLB life, but he was a good person.

After the trade, DanUpBaby, from Viva El Birdos, sent us an operating manual for Colby. I found this to be true:

Your COLBY RASMUS comes equipped with HOME RUN ACTION, INTERMITTENTLY IMPRESSIVE DEFENSE ACTION, and DEBATABLY USEFUL SPEED ACTION. Please do not expose your COLBY RASMUS to direct sunlight, fans of MAKING THINGS HAPPEN on offense or TONY LA RUSSA.

Over time, we got small glimpses into his personality, which I found entertaining. His changing hairstyles, however, I enjoyed less.

After leaving Toronto following the 2014 season, Colby spent two years with the Astros, started 2017 with the Rays but left mid-season, then began 2018 with the Orioles before retiring in July. This retirement appears final, and I hope he’s happy now.

He finished his career with a .241/.310/.436 slash line, 166 home runs, and a 20.2 bWAR across 1,092 games.

It is also Max Scherzer’s 42 birthday.

And he’s also starting tonight. Generally I say, if you are a gambler, bet on the team with a pitcher having a birthday. But, Scherzer has had a rough time of it, and he’s just back from the IL. Add in that he’s 42, and I don’t think he’d be a great bet.

He is also Shea Hillenbrand’s birthday. He’s 51.

He’s mostly famous for writing ‘sinking ship’ on the clubhouse chalk board and getting in a fight with John Gibbons. As a Jay he hit .294/.342/.460 with 30 home runs in 233 games. Not bad, not good enough for the headache he was for each organization that he played for.

Career he played in 943 games, hit .284/.321/.440 with 108 home runs across six teams.

Two years ago:

The Jays traded Nate Pearson to the Cubs for Josh Rivera and Yohendrick Piñango. Piñango, you know about. Rivera is playing in Buffalo this year, hitting .216/.289/.385 as an utility infielder.

Pearson has bounced from team to team, Cubs, Royals, Astros and back to the Royals now. He’s basically the pitcher we traded, throws hard, but walks too many.

And we traded Danny Jansen to the Red Sox for Gilberto Batista, Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino

Batista is a pitcher who is having a rough time in Vancouver (8.22 ERA). Coffey is an infielder who is hitting .223/.307/.335 for the Fisher Cats. Paulino is in the Mets organization now, playing in the low minors.

Jansen? He’s gone from the Red Sox to the Rays, to the Brewers and now he’s with the Rangers. He’s hitting .171/.277/.309 in 41 games for Texas.

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The Cincinnati Reds head into tonight's series opener against the Cleveland Guardians as a deserving -150 moneyline favorite behind their ace, Chase Burns. 

With Slade Cecconi in poor form, my Guardians vs Reds predictions are eyeing Cincy to grab a victory here. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, July 27. 

Who will win Guardians vs Reds today: Reds moneyline (-155)

Slade Cecconi is struggling lately for the Cleveland Guardians. The righty owns a 5.48 xERA across his last four appearances, allowing 1.40 HR/9 and an alarming 47.8% hard-hit rate. 

As for Chase Burns, he continues to shove. The Cincinnati Reds stud has a 3.66 FIP over the last month, limiting opponents to a 37.7% hard-hit rate.

Also, more than half of Cleveland's lineuphas a run value of one or fewer against the four-seam fastball, which Burns throws over 57% of the time. 

I'll play this pick up to -160. 

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians have produced just a 28.7% hard-hit rate over their last seven games, well below their 34.4% season average. That gives Burns a strong path to control contact with his four-seamer-heavy approach.

Guardians vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-112)

The Under is the better angle here. While Cecconi is vulnerable, Cincinnati’s offense has not shown enough recent form to suggest they'll explode offensively. The Reds have posted a 59 wRC+ and .131 ISO over the last week.

Cleveland has been better but still not elite, carrying a 96 wRC+ and .169 ISO over its last seven games. Burns also has a strong matchup against a Guardians lineup that has not made much loud contact lately.

The bullpens support a lower-scoring script, too. Cincinnati’s relief corps owns a 3.65 xERA over the last week, while Cleveland’s bullpen has posted a 3.16 FIP during that span.

I'll play this pick up to -130. 

Guardians vs Reds weather

Conditions should be warm and humid in Cincinnati tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 89°F at first pitch into the low 80s later in the game. Winds look light around 5–7 mph, and rain chances stay low. Weather should have minimal impact on scoring or ball carry.

Guardians vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Guardians +144 | Reds -150
• Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-144) | Reds -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Guardians vs Reds trend

The Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Cincinnati. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Reds.

How to watch Guardians vs Reds and game info

Guardians vs Reds latest injuries

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It's a fairly full MLB slate this Monday, July 27, featuring some of the best teams in baseball.

Before you dig in and make your predictions, be sure to consult our MLB expert picks, featuring the New York Yankees moneyline vs. the Chicago White Sox.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: NYY ML	-138
Joe Osborne: ARI ML	+101
Jason Wilson: CHC/STL o9.5	-103

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline (-138)

Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket

Noah Schultz may be a towering 6-foot-10 left-handed starter for the Chicago White Sox who throws from an uncomfortable three-quarter arm slot, but I think his size and delivery could actually work against him on Monday.

The New York Yankees will likely stack the lineup with right-handed bats like Jose Caballero, Anthony Volpe, and Jasson Dominguez, all of whom can create problems on the basepaths. They're also far from the only speed threats in the lineup, as Jazz Chisholm Jr. has already swiped 27 bases this season. 

Pitchers who stand 6-foot-10 don't always get the ball to home plate quickly, and I think this version of the Yankees' offense is built to take advantage. If New York can get runners on base early, it has the speed to pressure Schultz, force mistakes, and ignite the running game.

The Yankees are trading as a 58-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 63-cent favorite in this matchup.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: YES, CHSN

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline (+101)

Price: 49.8¢ (+101) at Polymarket

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a great spot to open the week with a win as a small underdog in Pittsburgh.

Merrill Kelly has looked like a top-line starter in July, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of his four starts this month. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense has gone ice-cold, ranking 29th in OPS over the past week.

Arizona's bats are trending in the opposite direction, sitting second in OPS in that same span, and they should capitalize on Mitch Keller, who owns a bloated 5.68 ERA at home.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: DBacks.TV, SNP

Jason Wilson's expert pick: Cubs vs Cardinals Over 9.5 (-103)

Price: 50.7¢ (-103) at Polymarket

Despite the St. Louis Cardinals' recent team-wide slump, Chicago Cubs left-hander David Peterson and his 5.97 ERA (5.23 xERA) is the perfect cure for what ails them. 

Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera have both excelled against left-handed pitching all season, and outfielder Nelson Velazquez has shown off his power stroke with four longballs off southpaws in 59 plate appearances. 

The Cardinals haven't announced an official starter, but it's Matthew Liberatore's turn in the rotation, and that could go poorly. The lefty has had a disappointing 2026, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and in the 24th or lower in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He doesn't miss a lot of bats and is getting walloped when opposing hitters make contact.

The Cubs boast the second-best team wRC+ against lefties (119) this season, with Seiya Suzuki (.321/.416/.571, six home runs) leading the charge, and Pete Crow-Armstrong bucking traditional lefty-lefty splits by hitting .285 with five homers of his own in these matchups. 

Double-digit scoring is on tap at Busch Stadium tonight.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• How to watch: MARQ, Cardinals.TV

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Three times over the past 25 years, the New York Yankees have spun a trade for one of the best young hitters on the planet, made available by his former team in order to dump his salary, despite the fact that their team captain played the same position. Most recently, it was Juan Soto, acquired for one magical season from the San Diego Padres prior to the 2024 season. Before that, it was Giancarlo Stanton, brought in to give the Yankees arguably the two best power hitters in the game in 2018. But the original version of this story took place 22 years ago this past February, when the Bronx Bombers — in desperate need of a third baseman after the incumbent, Aaron Boone, was injured playing basketball in the offseason — reeled in arguably the best player in the game of baseball, Alex Rodriguez.

Now nearly a decade since he last stepped in the batter’s box at Yankee Stadium, the legacy of A-Rod continues to spark debate, as fans question whether the otherworldly performance in his prime was worth the controversy of his decline.

Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez
Born: July 27, 1975 (New York, NY)
Yankees Tenure: 2004-16

Born in Washington Heights and raised in the Dominican Republic and Miami, Rodriguez put himself on the map at Christopher Columbus High School (freshman year) and Westminster Christian School (sophomore, junior, and senior years), playing shortstop for the baseball team and both wide receiver and quarterback for the football team. While it was his prowess on the diamond that would earn him international acclaim and numerous accolades — he played for Team USA in the 1992 World Junior Championship — his performance on the gridiron was so impressive that, when the University of Miami offered A-Rod a baseball scholarship, the football team stepped in with the goal of turning him into a two-sport athlete.

Unfortunately for Miami, however, the Seattle Mariners had other ideas, selecting A-Rod as the first overall pick of the 1993 MLB Draft. That would prove to be the right decision, as just thirteen months later, Rodriguez made his Major League debut against the Boston Red Sox — the first player to debut at the age of 18 in fifteen years. While he was unspectacular in his first cup of coffee that year, or in his limited time on the roster during the strike-shortened 1995 season, he had done just enough to be penciled in as the starting shortstop to start the 1996 season. And that year, he began to craft the legend of A-Rod. In a lineup that featured future Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Martinez, the 20-year-old Rodriguez was arguably the best player on the team, posting an absurd .358/.414/.631 slash line to become the third youngest player to win the batting title in AL history (and on top of that, he hit 36 home runs, too!).

Rodriguez spent the next four seasons on the Mariners, over which span he posted a .304/.372/.560 slash line, hit 148 home runs, won three silver sluggers, went to three Midsummer Classics, and joined the 40/40 club. Despite his performance, and despite having a stacked lineup, Seattle failed to even reach .500 in two of those seasons, and would lose to the Yankees in the 2000 ALCS.

During the 2000-2001 offseason, everyone assumed that Rodriguez would return to New York and sign with his childhood team, the Mets. But a host of demands from agent Scott Boras spooked Mets general manager Steve Phillips, who feared that Rodriguez’s presence would turn the club into a 24-player team, that also had A-Rod. And so, instead, the superstar shortstop inked a record-breaking, 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers, a deal that doubled the previous record for the largest contract in American sports, Kevin Garnett’s $126 million deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

To this day the contract ranks 19th in Major League history according to Baseball-Reference (and that’s without adjusting for inflation!).

For his part, Rodriguez certainly held up his end of the bargain for Texas. From 2001 to 2003, he slashed .305/.396/.615, hit 156 home runs, went to three All-Star Games, received two Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers, and won the 2003 AL MVP despite playing on a last-place team. Even so, the Rangers struggled to put a team around him, and after three seasons, decided that investing a full quarter of the payroll in one player wasn’t good roster-building. Immediately after the 2003 World Series, they put him on the trade block, spinning a deal with the Red Sox that the MLBPA ultimately vetoed because it would set the precedent that players could return guaranteed money. Once that deal fell through, the Yankees — suddenly in need of a third baseman, and upon learning that A-Rod was willing to switch positions — swooped in and acquired him, sending a package headlined by Alfonso Soriano the other way.

The baseball world, to say the least, was shocked.

Despite a 2004 postseason that we will ignore in all aspects, Rodriguez proved immediately why the Yankees made the right decision trading for him. Over his first four seasons in the Bronx, he posted a .303/.403/.573 slash line, blasted 173 home runs, went to four All-Star games, won two AL MVPs, and accrued an absurd 30.9 rWAR. He piled on highlight after highlight, hitting three homers and driving in ten runs in one night, recording his 2000th career hit and 500th career homer (becoming the youngest player to do the latter), and walking it off twice early in 2007. Nonetheless, cracks began to appear in the foundation, as the player whose contract was so famous that Night at the Museum would make a joke about it, earned himself a reputation as a postseason choker, as he had just seven hits in 54 plate appearances across 13 postseason games after 2004.

All of that would pale, however, in comparison to the two major controversies about to hit A-Rod, both of his own creation. On October 28, 2007, during Game 4 of the World Series, Boras announced that Rodriguez had opted out of his deal and would become a free agent. The announcement angered literally everyone, from the league that felt A-Rod was trying to upstage the World Series, to the Yankees who felt betrayed after Rodriguez had spent the year telling them he intended not to opt out, to (allegedly) A-Rod himself, who to this day blames Boras for acting contrary to his wishes (for what it’s worth, the Rodriguez/Boras relationship fell apart after this — perhaps some evidence that he’s telling the truth). At the end of the day, though, Mariano Rivera patched things up between Rodriguez and the Yankees, helping bring the two sides together on a new 10-year, $275 million deal that would keep him in pinstripes for the rest of his career.

Had that been the end of the controversy, we would look back at it as just a weird quirk in a career full of them. In February 2009, however, Sports Illustrated released a report identifying A-Rod as one of the 104 players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, news that shook the baseball world and, indeed, even the nation — recently-elected President Obama even commented on it! For his part, Rodriguez owned up to the mistake, acknowledging that, although it was a different era, he was “stupid” and “naïve.” Perhaps, again, if this was the end of the controversy, he could have rehabilitated his reputation, gotten his number retired by the Yankees, and ended up in Cooperstown — especially since the 2009 season saw Rodriguez finally shake the “postseason choker” reputation, as he went 19-for-52 with six home runs and 12 walks, including a massive two-run homer in Game 3 of the World Series and a game-winning double in Game 4.

Things began to crumble around Rodriguez following the 2009 season, even as he passed the 600-homer threshold. While he was still a good hitter, injuries began to sap his power at the plate and his range at the hot corner, and limited him to just 137 games in 2010, 99 in 2011, and 122 in 2012. Joe Girardi famously benched him in favor of Raúl Ibáñez and Eric Chavez at critical moments in the intense ALDS matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. Then, as the Yankees were swept by the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS, he was spotted flirting with fans during the game.

Somehow, it got even worse. That December, it was revealed that Rodriguez needed hip surgery that would sideline him for the first half of the 2013 season — prompting the Yankees to acquire former Red Sox first baseman/third baseman Kevin Youkilis, which to this day feels like a crime against The Rivalry. Days afterwards, the Biogenesis scandal broke, and Rodriguez began to pick fights with literally everybody, including the players’ union and the Yankees organization.

Despite the threat of legal action against his own ballclub, though, and appealing a 211-game suspension, A-Rod returned to the Yankees lineup on August 5, 2013, giving a sluggish Yankees lineup a jolt and crafting some memorable moments — such as the time Girardi melted down at the umpire for refusing to eject Ryan Dempster, only to see Rodriguez get his vengeance later in the game.

Following the 2013 season, Rodriguez went off onto his year-long sabbatical, during which time Rodriguez went and enrolled in classes at Miami, and for most of us, that was that. I mean, how often does a 39-year-old infielder with a bad hip return to the Majors after missing an entire season? The answer, as it turns out, is exactly once. Rodriguez turned back the clock a little bit in 2015, blasting 33 homers, joining the 3,000 Hit Club, and putting together his best season since 2009 as the Yankees’ full-time designated hitter.

Unfortunately, Father Time came for Rodriguez the following season. The team worked with the struggling 41-year-old on as soft a midseason departure as one could’ve likely hoped given the circumstances. They announced his forthcoming departure a week in advance, honored him in a pregame ceremony before his final game on August 12th, and he got a double against the Rays for his final career hit. He played third base in the ninth one last time, and walked off the field to a very nice hand. The Yankees then designated him for assignment and promoted one of their prospects, outfielder Aaron Judge. Good move.

Since his retirement, Rodriguez has stayed in the game of baseball, most often serving as an analyst for ESPN and Fox — mixing in the occasional nugget with some bizarresoundbites. While his No. 13 remains in circulation, and he has yet to receive even a plaque in Monument Park, A-Rod’s apology tour has arguably been his greatest achievement: in fact, I know multiple Red Sox fans who have told me that they hate how much they enjoy A-Rod these days. And that is, itself, a pretty cool legacy.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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David Peterson's results have improved with the Chicago Cubs, but his underlying numbers remain poor.

I don't think the Chicago Cubs deserve to be -120 favorites with Peterson on the mound, and my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks on Monday, July 27, reflect that.

Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: St. Louis Cardinals (+100)

David Peterson owns a 5.57 ERA, 5.60 SIERA, and 12.6 K% over the last 30 days. He is in horrendous form.

The St. Louis Cardinals have not hit lefties consistently of late, but I’m not sure it matters. They faced Peterson twice recently and combined for 16 runs while knocking him out before completing four innings on both occasions.

Matthew Liberatore has started pitching a little better, conceding three runs or fewer in three of his past four starts — including against the Chicago Cubs.

Back the Cardinals to -110.

COVERS INTEL:Peterson sits at the 19th percentile in K%, playing into the hands of a Cardinals lineup with the second-lowest K% vs. lefties.

Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-110)

Opponents are hammering Peterson to the tune of a 44.1% hard-hit rate over the last month, which is the second-highest output among today’s starting pitchers.

Peterson is having a miserable time striking batters out, and the Cardinals excel in avoiding punchouts, making a perfect storm for plenty of good contact.

Liberatore’s 30.2% line-drive rate the past 30 days is alarmingly bad, and doesn’t bode well for his chances of slowing down a Cubs offense sitting in the Top 10 vs. lefties during that stretch.

Bet the Over to -120.

Cubs vs Cardinals weather

Temperatures are expected to approach 100 with slight winds blowing out.

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -120 | Cardinals +100
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+130) | Cardinals +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)

Cubs vs Cardinals trend

Chicago has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of the last 30 games (+4.85 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info

Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.