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The Padres face the league’s winningest team in the Division Series, but don’t call them underdogs.

It seemed unlikely the Padres would ever make it this far. They closed out June with an eight-game losing streak and limped into the All-Star break with a .500 record. That’s something of a death sentence in the NL West, where the juggernaut Dodgers demand perfection to unseat them at the top. The Padres playoff odds fell as low as 7.4% in the final week of July. Who would or should be fired seemed like it’d be the only relevant conversation in October.

Fast forward to Wednesday: The Padres not only pulled off a convincing sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card round, they were favorites to do so. Their 41-18 record over the final 10 weeks of the season was the best in the majors. In fact, it was 2 1/2 games better than the next best team, the Brewers, who they now face in the Division Series on Saturday. 

But it’s not just a vastly improved record. By WAR, a statistical stand in for “true talent,” no team was better in the second half than the Padres. They posted 21.9 WAR, narrowly besting the Cubs (21.8), Dodgers (21.5), Red Sox (21.4) and Brewers (20.2). It’s one of the great team-level turnarounds this century.

The surge in San Diego isn’t really too complicated. The Padres in the first half scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and posted a 90 wRC+. In the second half, they scored the third most runs and posted a 119 wRC+. With the Cubs out of the picture, the Padres arguably have the best lineup remaining in the postseason field.

It starts with the stars. Fernando Tatís Jr. has been on a torrid pace since a bizarre slump to begin the season. He struggled through May, hitting just .268/.345/.307 without a homer in his first 268 plate appearances. But he was absolutely crushing the ball at the same time, running a hard hit rate as high as 60%. The issue wasn’t so much the contact he was making but where it was going — either into the ground or toward the opposite field. On May 29, Tatís hit his first home run. He proceeded to slug 24 more before the season was up, with a slash line of .303/.368/.549 (153 wRC+). His 5.0 fWAR since that first homer was second best in the majors, behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just as the Padres might have the best lineup remaining in the postseason, Tatís might be the best player.

What changed for him? We can see in the plot below that Tatís shifted his stance in the box, from a closed-and-wide stance early to a more open-and-upright stance the rest of the year. Again, he was already making lots of hard contact, but after the change, his contact was more likely to travel in the air and to the pull side. It’s a lot easier to hit home runs when a batter aims for the shallowest part of the park, and that seemed to be the difference for Tatís this summer.

Jackson Merrill struggles were even more pronounced early in 2026. Through June, Merrill hit .213/.271/.343 (72 wRC+). Since then, he’s hit .299/.338/.544 (141 wRC+). Unlike Tatís, there isn’t a clean narrative as to what changed. His hard hit rate has been strong all year. His strikeout hasn’t really changed, and he’s actually walking a bit less these days. It’s possible he was simply getting unlucky early, and the cyclical nature of baseball has shifted back in his favor. Regardless, the Padres with Merrill and Tatís have one of the great one-two punches in the majors, especially when you consider both players are solid defenders and great base runners.

But it’s more than just one great duo. Ty France seemingly out of nowhere had his best-ever season with a 141 wRC+, after bouncing around on waivers the last two years. Manny Machado hasn’t necessarily been a great hitter all around, but he still hit 30 homers and played excellent defense at third base. Even their platoons seem to be clicking, with guys like Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, and Dustin Harris playing well in limited roles. From top to bottom, things are going really well for the Padres lineup.

On the mound, well, it’s a good thing the Padres have a great lineup. The best thing I can say is they might be better served in these short series. There isn’t a ton of depth here. Michael King has dominated at times throughout his career, and in fact, we saw him spin one of his best-ever outings against the Cubs earlier in the week. But he’s not really a “true ace” more than simply the best starter in San Diego. From there, Nick Pivetta was really impressive this year, albeit in only eight starts — none more than five innings — after missing most of the season with an elbow injury. Then there’s Walker Buhler, who the Padres hope can find his former playoff dominance, even if he’s largely struggled since elbow surgery in 2022. There are other starters who could get a nod in the NLDS, but it’s worth emphasizing those are the three best the Padres have to offer at the moment. Starting pitching is far from a strength.

The good news for the Padres is they happen to have a lockdown bullpen behind them — without a doubt the best in the majors. Everyone knows about Mason Miller, who just finished one of the great reliever seasons in history. His fastball averages 101.4 mph, his slider is unhittable, and he strikes out half the batters he faces. Adrian Morejon serves as something of a 1b option for the Padres, as surely the best lefty reliever in the majors, generating tons of grounders with a heavy sinker and an invsi-ball changeup. One might even call Bradgley Rodriguez a third “one,” as the rare changeup-first pitcher. Honestly, I could just list the entire Padres bullpen: They are deep, varied, and highly effective all the way through.

They’re going to need to be against the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee won 103 games this year as the winningest team in the majors for the second straight season. It was the first time in franchise history they’ve topped triple digits in the win column. Like the Padres, they have a great offense. Like the Padres, they have a great bullpen. But they also happen to have a great rotation and the league’s ace in Jacob Misiorowski. They’re the favorites in the series — and maybe the entire postseason — for a reason. To put it this way, the Padres with their surge have merely reached the level of the Brewers, who have been playing like this all season.

Still, this isn’t your standard 103-game winner versus 91-game winner, where the former is sure to bowl throughout the latter. The Padres are a very good team these days, and far better than their full-season record indicates. At the very least, either team would make a formidable opponent for the Dodgers in the NLCS, should they make it through Atlanta.

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.

No. 51, Jordan Beck (-0.9 rWAR)

I was genuinely expecting a big season from Jordan Beck.

Maybe not a breakout into stardom, but another step forward after a 2025 season in which Beck received an extended opportunity in the major leagues. He played 148 games and hit .258/.317/.416 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases. There were still holes in his offensive game, particularly the strikeouts, but there was enough power and athleticism to believe he could establish himself as part of the Rockies’ outfield moving forward.

His path through the organization seemed to reflect that progress. Beck was briefly optioned to Triple-A in April 2025, returned less than two weeks later and essentially remained an everyday major-league player from there.

A year later, the path reversed.

Beck opened 2026 with the Rockies, struggled, landed on the injured list with a left hamstring strain and, when his rehab assignment ended in late June, was activated and immediately optioned to Albuquerque. By the time he returned in August, his role had changed.

The numbers

Almost nothing went right. Beck hit .200/.261/.291 in 63 games with one home run. His major-league power disappeared, his already-high strikeout rate climbed, and his approach at the plate became increasingly exploitable.

What actually happened

Beck showed some early flashes. On April 14 in Houston, he got a 2-0 four-seam fastball from Colton Gordon and drove it 359 feet to right field.

It was his only home run of the season.

Six days later came his best game of the year. With Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski starting at Coors Field, Warren Schaeffer moved Beck into the leadoff spot. Beck entered the night hitting .122 and immediately roped a double down the third-base line at 98.7 mph. He would then score on a Brenton Doyle double.

He added a check-swing single in the fifth, then put together perhaps his best plate appearance of the night in the seventh. Beck battled Wrobleski for nine pitches, fouled off three pitches with two strikes, worked the count full and lined a curveball to left field at 96.7 mph for a single.

He finished 3-for-4, with a run and an RBI. The Rockies lost the game 12-3.

Nine days later, Beck was again leading off against a left-hander, only this time everything looked different.

The Rockies battered Cincinnati for 13 runs and 15 hits on April 29. Beck was the only Colorado starter who didn’t get a hit, finishing 0-for-6 with two strikeouts while grounding into a double play.

His first plate appearance also offered an early look at a problem that would follow him throughout the season: after fouling off a fastball, Beck swung through consecutive sweepers from Brandon Williamson, the second finishing down and away for strike three.

There were good games. There were bad games. There just was never a run of the good ones.

The season took a larger turn in May when Colorado placed Beck on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. He began a rehab assignment with Albuquerque on June 23 and was activated five days later, but not back onto the Rockies’ active roster. Colorado instead optioned him to Triple-A, where he remained until his Aug. 3 recall.

Beck still had flashes after returning. On Aug. 25 in Washington, he went 2-for-4 against left-hander Andrew Alvarez, including a two-strike curveball he lined into center at 97.4 mph.

Beck later scored on a wild pitch, giving Colorado a 3-1 lead in a game the Rockies won by that score. It was a small glimpse of why left-handed pitching remained the obvious place for Colorado to keep looking for offense from him.

By late September, though, even the good at-bats had trouble turning into anything sustained. On Sept. 24 against Arizona, Beck struck out in each of his first two trips against left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez before putting together one of his better plate appearances of the afternoon in the sixth.

Beck fell behind 1-2, fouled off two pitches, worked the count full and lined a 91.6 mph four-seamer into left field at 103.9 mph for a single.

His next plate appearance lasted three pitches.

Dennis Santana threw Beck three consecutive sliders. Beck swung at all three.

He missed the first.

He foul-tipped the second.

And he chased the third down and away for strike three.

Kevin Ginkel struck him out on another slider down and away in the ninth, leaving Beck 1-for-5 with four strikeouts.

Two days later he doubled, and the following day he singled, and that was it. Beck finished the season exactly on the Mendoza Line at .200.

By then, the bigger change was how the Rockies were using him. Beck appeared in 33 of their final 50 games and started 26, with those opportunities increasingly tilted toward left-handed pitching.

The split made that understandable: He hit just .091/.157/.156 in 83 plate appearances against right-handers, compared with .295/.351/.409 against lefties. But even the favorable matchup wasn’t producing consistent results by the end. After returning from Albuquerque, Beck struck out 21 times in 56 plate appearances against lefties — 37.5% of the time.

His defensive role was fairly narrow, too. Beck’s home was in the corner outfield, where his arm remained the most obvious defensive tool, averaging 88.4 mph. On Sept. 5 against St. Louis, he charged a ball in right field and threw Thomas Saggese out at the plate, with replay confirming the call.

The overall defensive value wasn’t quite as strong as the arm, with Statcast grading Beck at -2 Outs Above Average.

By the end of the season, Beck was no longer functioning as an everyday outfielder. He had become a matchup-dependent corner outfielder who also received opportunities off the bench.

The strike zone kept getting bigger

The biggest change in Beck’s offensive profile wasn’t simply that he struck out more. It was that he started swinging at far more pitches he didn’t need to hit.

His strikeout rate did rise, from 29.6% in 2025 to 31.7% in 2026, but that increase alone doesn’t explain how much his production fell. His bat speed was still there, too, ticking up slightly from 73.2 mph to 73.9 mph.

What changed much more dramatically was his swing decision-making.

Pitchers didn’t radically reinvent the way they attacked Beck. The overall pitch mix remained fairly similar to 2025 outside of an increase in changeup usage, and the location profile wasn’t dramatically different either.

In 2025, 23% of the pitches Beck saw landed in Statcast’s Chase region, outside the edges of the strike zone. In 2026, it was 24%. Beck’s response to those pitches changed dramatically: His swing rate in that region climbed from 22% to 36%.

The same thing happened around the edges of the plate. His swing rate in Statcast’s Shadow region jumped from 53% to 63%, while his overall chase rate climbed from 27.4% to 38.0%.

Pitchers didn’t need to completely change how they attacked Beck. He was increasingly willing to expand the zone himself.

That was only part of the problem. When you look at how Beck performed against specific pitch types, another piece of the decline comes into focus: He wasn’t doing nearly as much damage against fastballs, particularly four-seamers.

Breaking pitches weren’t suddenly a new weakness. Beck’s production against them was fairly similar to 2025. Fastballs were different. He slugged .481 against them in 2025 and just .299 in 2026, while his slugging percentage against four-seamers fell from .521 to .282.

That matters because Beck wasn’t simply missing everything pitchers threw in the strike zone. His swing rate on pitches in the heart of the plate was exactly the same in both seasons at 73%, while his contact rate on pitches inside the zone actually improved slightly from 76.9% to 79.3%.

The contact just wasn’t nearly as dangerous.

His barrel rate fell from 9.6% to 3.7%, his hard-hit rate dropped from 38.5% to 32.1% and his expected slugging percentage fell from roughly .395 to .293.

So Beck was dealing with problems on both ends of the at-bat. He was chasing more pitches he didn’t need to hit, and when pitchers did come back into the zone with something hittable, he wasn’t punishing them the way he had a year earlier.

A hitter can survive a lot of strikeouts if the swings that connect produce damage. In 2025, Beck did enough damage to make the flaws work.

In 2026, he kept the flaws and lost the damage.

Where does Beck stand heading into 2027?

Beck is still only 25 years old, the athleticism and bat speed remain, and he is only one season removed from hitting 16 home runs in 148 games. Seven homers in 26 games with Albuquerque also suggest the physical power hasn’t disappeared.

But if he is going to reestablish himself as more than a matchup-dependent player, simply cutting down on the strikeouts probably isn’t enough. He needs to shrink the zone again while rediscovering the damage he did against hittable pitches in 2025.

That leaves Beck in a very different position than he occupied a year ago. He feels like a realistic change-of-scenery candidate this winter, young enough and with enough previous major-league success that another organization could look at the swing decisions, the platoon splits and the remaining physical tools and believe there is still something to unlock.

The Rockies could reach the same conclusion and give him another opportunity themselves.

I expected Jordan Beck to take another step forward in 2026.

Instead, he had moments, but never momentum.

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The Wild Card series against the Yankees was probably the worst way for the 2026 season to end. Everything that was a problem at any point – struggles to score runs, the bullpen, injuries – all happened at the same time and within a matter of minutes. Two games in a row ended the Red Sox season. This wasn’t the plan. As all the Sox players returned from the WBC to Fort Myers, many riding hot streaks, this looked like a team ready to rocket. Yes, there were questions entering the season. But there were answers that hadn’t been fully formed yet.

After the 2025 season, the Sox were desperate for infield help. Trevor Story, not a guarantee of health or success himself, since arriving in Boston, was coming off a tremendous year, his best for the Red Sox. The rest of the infield was a question mark. Third base was more-or-less vacant after Alex Bregman opted out. Second base was going to be a battle with the future potential of Marcelo Mayer as a leading contestant. First base? Triston Casas? Maybe? Catcher, using the more generous definition of infield, was a tandem based on Carlos Narváez hitting in 2025 and Connor Wong, who couldn’t hit at all. There were at least two guys, which was more than could be said about first base.

Craig Breslow looked at the free agent market. He looked at the trade market. He looked at his own farm system. And in two phases he built the roster that he would live or die with.

We know about phase one. Caleb Durbin was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers. Willson Contreras was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was signed to platoon (kinda) with Mayer.

On the free agent market, the Red Sox went in the opposite direction. The promise/hope was two bats. And they passed on Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette etc. Aside from Contreras there were no big bats.

What Durbin would share with Willson, besides become Mini Bowser to his Bowser, was control. Contreras was guaranteed to be in town through 2027 with an option for 2028. Durbin will not hit free agency until the 2030s. The same with Mayer. Ranger Suarez, on the other side of the ball, also was signed long-term.

As it would turn out Willson Contreras would not even sniff competition from Triston Casas, who would face a series of injuries that would cost him the season. Not that anyone was worried about having too many first basemen. Caleb Durbin would start off slow with the bat, glacial even, but provide solid defense. He’d go on to set a new career high in home runs while, likely, competing for a Gold Glove.

Marcelo Mayer would underperform and then get hurt. Carlos Narváez would revert to his reputation as a bat-second player. While Connor Wong would provide some offense in a bounce-back season, the catcher tandem as a whole was underwater.

Phase two would be at the deadline. With Durbin rounding into form as The Durbinator, Breslow and his team set their sights on second base and catcher. Turning Connelly Early into Curtis Mead gave them another second baseman with control for years to come. And while the sample size is small, Mead hit 17 home runs in just 87 games. Adding a 30-homer threat to second base would be a tremendous pillar of the offense. Mayer would be traded separately, Mead would get hurt, but the plan was in place.

Similarly, the massive all-in prospect trade for Adley Rutschman was for 2026 and 2027. Connor Wong isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season so catcher is set for another year and they have time to evaluate Rutschman or find a replacement before 2028. For Breslow’s plan through this summer, when he didn’t know he’d be extended, that’s all that mattered. Build then best team for what could be his last season if they struggled.

Entering 2027 the Red Sox have two catchers. They have an entire starting infield, plus top prospect Franklin Arias. They have Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu (plus control of Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida, and Kristian Campbell) in the outfield.

The rotation has Payton Tolle, Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, and Jake Bennett. Boston holds an option on Sonny Gray that he can opt out of, but potentially the entire rotation is headed back for 2027. Starters 6-10 might be a concern, but for a healthy Opening Day major league roster, Breslow took care of that already.

We never actually got to see this team assembled together in 2026. Even if Curtis Mead came into the last game of the season while Garrett Crochet was on the mound, Roman was out. This year, unless there is a big trade to accommodate a move, the Hot Stove season won’t be the same. The roster is basically set. Did Breslow see the lockout as an obstacle? Maybe! He might have been thinking that teams would scramble to make moves before and after and he’d be set. For a team that was seeing it’s window open in 2025, it seems too intentional to put together the whole thing one year in with really only the Story to Arias transition as a big roster move to facilitate.

The performance of the team in 2026 was up and down, but overall we saw a number of good years from this group – Tolle, Abreu, Contreras, Rafaela, and Durbin all provide reasons to be optimistic. Roman Anthony had a good run around the hand injury. Six months off sure would be nice to let that heal. There’s reason to think 2027 can be fun. Maybe distributed a little better too.

Your Opening Day 2027 Boston Red Sox:

C: Rutschman, Wong

1: Contreras

2B: Mead, Sogard

SS: Story, Arias

3B: Durbin

OF: Roman, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (if he’s not moved/non-tenderd), Campbell

DH: Yoshida

To begin their quest for a third-straight World Series this postseason, the Dodgers will turn to the one pitcher in their rotation yet to win a championship ring.

Tarik Skubal is expected to be named the team’s starter for Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, a source with knowledge of the situation told the California Post, giving the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner and marquee trade deadline acquisition an immediate opportunity to jump-start the club’s three-peat bid.

The Dodgers, of course, had no bad options for their playoff opener.

Their rotation includes four pitchers who would be No. 1 options on most other clubs, with Skubal being joined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow for this year’s October push.

However, Skubal is set to get the nod, as The Athletic first reported, after increasingly impressive late-season performances with the Dodgers following his blockbuster arrival from the Detroit Tigers in August.

The 29-year-old left-hander posted a 5-2 record and 2.61 ERA in 10 post-deadline starts with the club, improving upon the 7-5 mark and 2.79 ERA he had with the Tigers during a first half that was sidetracked by an elbow procedure that sidelined him for all of May.

Skubal’s best outings came in the final weeks of the regular season, when he spun a pair of scoreless seven-inning starts in two of his final three appearances of the campaign.

Prior to Friday’s news, there was a thought that Yamamoto would be the Dodgers’ Game 1 starter, given his World Series MVP heroics last fall.

But Yamamoto threw extensively in a simulated game on Wednesday, during the club’s bye week workouts. That kept him on his customary once-per-week pitching schedule (his regular-season finale came on the Wednesday before that) and might line him up to pitch in Game 3 in Atlanta next Tuesday instead. Of note: Yamamoto has notably better splits on the road (1.77 ERA) than at home (3.13 ERA) this year.

Snell, who has followed Skubal in the Dodgers’ rotation lately, seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 on Sunday. Glasnow, who pitched in another simulated game Thursday, figures to go in Game 4, and could be an option out of the bullpen this weekend.

While Skubal –– who will be the sport’s top free agent this winter –– has yet to win a World Series, he does have a sterling postseason track record.

In six playoff outings over the last two years with the Tigers, he pitched to a 2.04 ERA while striking out 56 batters in 39 ⅔ innings. Those numbers would be even better if not for his one October clunker, when he gave up five runs in a winner-take-all loss in Game 5 of the 2024 American League Division Series.

That failure has become a motivator for Skubal in the two years since. It has left him with a feeling of unfinished business as he begins another playoff campaign amid new surroundings now.

“Once the months change and the playoffs start, nothing matters,” he said last week. “It’s just about winning that game, and that’s how I treat every single start. Because I’m just trying to put our team in a position to win a baseball game. That won’t change from today, and whenever my next start is.”

The potential downside of being rusty after a long time off pales in comparison to the very real strain an extra series can put on a team’s pitching staff. The protagonists of the only Wild Card round to go all three games, the Atlanta Braves, advanced to face the Dodgers but did so, paying a high price with a pitching staff that went all in for its survival.

In what was quite the opening test against Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and company, the Braves’ starting rotation made a statement that any perceptions that it is too Chris Sale-reliant are an exaggeration. With Sale taking the ball in Game 1, Tyler Mahle in Game 2, and the left-hander Ray Kerr in the winner-take-all Game 3, the Braves’ rotation allowed just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings—with the bulk of those runs coming off Sale, believe it or not.

When the Braves acquired Mahle at the deadline, they clearly saw something in him past the horrendous results he had been putting up for the Giants. Mahle has done better than anyone could have guessed, proving how much the organization matters for some players in certain moments, taking adjustments Atlanta has helped him with—including but not limited to a higher usage of splitters, his primary off-speed pitch—to dominate with a 1.99 ERA in nine regular-season starts.

Nine starts were all it took for Mahle to jump to the front of the line as the number two behind Sale—a position that had been sorely lacking for a Braves team that has seen Spencer Strider never be the same following his injuries, the latest of them taking him out for the year in June, and the same availability issues plague the promising Spencer Schwellenbach. Against the Phillies, Mahle might not have earned the win, but he did everything possible to lead his team there—Mahle held the Phillies to just one run in seven innings, the best start by a pitcher on either side of this three-game set.

Postseason baseball is filled with stories of players who take on a hot stretch and let that carry them to dominance through multiple series. But after one start, it might be too soon to be overly scared of a matchup against Mahle, regardless of how dominant he has been. He is the X-factor for the Braves, who’ll not only need him to perform well but also like an ace if their pitching is to line up with the Dodgers in any way.

From number two to number one, what Sale does goes without saying, but his aggressive usage out of the bullpen in Game 3 of the Wild Card round could potentially affect his rhythm for a Sunday Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium. And more importantly, whether it affects him, the fact that the Braves felt compelled to give him the ball while up 6-2 with only four outs to go tells you all you need to know about their pitching depth.

As far as Sale is concerned, Dodger fans don’t need reminding of his dominance—having witnessed it firsthand when the left-hander put out a vintage performance in a complete-game shutout of Los Angeles back in Atlanta during the regular season. And while Sale may not have yet pitched against the Dodgers in the playoffs as a Brave, there are wounds there from his time in Boston, on the mound for the final pitch of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium.

Projecting how the Braves rotation will line up against the Dodgers, it is clear that Sale gets the ball in Game 2, while Mahle goes in Game 3. The plans for the opening game of the series, though, are unclear as of now, partially because the Braves utilized their next two best starting options in Game 3 of the Wild Card round. Left-hander Ray Kerr looked solid for three-plus innings, and Grant Holmes provided key outs in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen.

For a shorter series against the Phillies, the Braves took only 11 pitchers, meaning an A.J. Smith Shawver could earn the nod for the NLDS and make this first start, or Atlanta could simply look to a bullpen game. Even if Shawver were to get the ball, considering he has come out of the pen near the end of the regular season, it’d be with a short leash.

Based on who the Braves have lined up for Games 2 and 3 of the NLDS and how much certain relievers had to work against the Phillies—including their most utilized setup man, Didier Fuentes, who got the ball in all three games—the opener for the NLDS will be their most challenging game in the entire series. Those of us accustomed to the Dave Roberts method of managing wouldn’t be surprised to see him punt such a game early on if given this set of circumstances. We shall see how Atlanta approaches it: is it able to throw caution to the wind as the underdog or lean into the hand it was dealt?

Moving on from the rotation and on to Fuentes and the rest of this bullpen, Robert Suárez’s recent return from injury gives them a bit more depth in the backend, but the circle of trust is smaller than you’d like—and its propensity to get bitten by the long ball has already come into play in this series. Dylan Lee and Fuentes, two of Atlanta’s most trusted relievers, were responsible for the loss in game 2, with Lee giving up two solo bombs to Harper and Schwarber. While the number four in ERA in the regular season, the Braves’ bullpen was only 19th in HR/9.

Already a very good closer in his time with the Reds and Angels, Raisel Iglesias has raised his game to a new level with the Braves, including earning his second All-Star nod this season. As with the rotation, though, the comparison with the Dodgers is worse when you bring depth to the conversation.

Hopefully you all follow along and have seen the Game 162 Heroes and Goats and you already knew how the final standings ended up, at least at the top and bottom. Kudos to you if you knew by the end of the first inning on Sunday that Alex Bregman had likely secured the Rizzo. In reality, it was probably the second homer that did it. But either way, Bregman wins the closest finish in the 13-year history of the award.

For a reminder of that history of this award, here are the previous 12 years of Rizzo Award finalists. Alternatively titled: “Tom doesn’t make clearly readable/decipherable charts.”

Heroes:

• 2014 Rizzo 47.5 Arrieta 30 Castro 20.5
• 2015 Rizzo 65.5 Arrieta 51 Bryant 39
• 2016 Lester 51.5 Hendricks 37 Rizzo 34.5
• 2017 Rizzo 38 Contreras 34 Bryant 23
• 2018 Strop 22 Hendricks 20 Baez 19.5
• 2019 Rizzo 35 Bryant 34.75 Schwarber 19.25
• 2020 Darvish 19 Hendricks 18 Happ 14.5
• 2021 Schwindel +30 Bryant 26 Wisdom 26
• 2022 Robertson 22.5 Morel 18 Effross 17
• 2023 Bellinger 35 Happ 21.5 Alzolay 18
• 2024 Imanaga 23.5 Suzuki 20.5 Taillon 18
• 2025 Tucker 27 Taillon 24 Boyd 20

Goats:

• 2014 Lake -24 Schierholtz -27.5 Jackson -37
• 2015 Russell -19.5 Ross -21.5 Castro -24
• 2016 Baez -19.5 Russell -21.5 Heyward -48.5
• 2017 Heyward/Baez -19 Lackey -20 Zobrist -21
• 2018 Almora -26.5 Russell -42 Contreras -44
• 2019 Quintana/Almora -15.5 Strop -19.5 Heyward -20
• 2020 Rizzo -8.5 Bryant -10 Baez -22
• 2021 Bote -19 Arrieta -19 Davies -25
• 2022 Ortega -11.5 Gomes -14.5 Heyward -15.5
• 2023 Smyly -18 Mancini -20.5 Taillon -23
• 2024 Mastrobuoni -12 Paredes -14 Morel -20.5
• 2025 Swanson -22.33 Kelly -26 Suzuki -27

And with that, here are the final H&G standings for 2026. Bottom to top, the way it should be done.

Heroes and Goats: (full/final standings)

• Nico Hoerner -18
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Seiya Suzuki -17
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Ryan Zeferjahn -8.5
• Jacob Webb -8
• Ethan Roberts -8
• Pedro Ramirez -8
• Ryan Rolison -7
• Corbin Martin -5
• Michael Busch -4
• Jordan Wicks -3
• Jake Woodford -3
• Justin Dean -2.5
• Matt Shaw -2
• B.J. Murray -2
• Antoine Kelly -2
• Hunter Harvey -2
• Hobie Milner -1.5
• Colin Rea -1
• Miguel Amaya -1
• Gabriel Arias -1
• Drew Pomeranz -1
• Scott Kingery -1
• Tyler Ferguson -1
• Moises Ballesteros -0.5
• Clay Holmes 0
• James Triantos +0.5
• Ty Blach +1
• Braxton Garrett +2
• Bryse Wilson +2
• Cade Horton +2
• Gavin Hollowell +2
• Daniel Palencia +3
• Kevin Alcantara +3
• David Peterson +4
• Matthew Boyd +5.5
• Tyrone Taylor +8
• Ian Happ +8.5
• Trent Thornton +10
• Aaron Civale +10
• Michael Conforto +10
• Javier Assad +11
• Carson Kelly +11.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Shōta Imanaga +15
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
• Alex Bregman +26

At a quick glance here, Alex Bregman was obviously able to make the most impact among free agents, Pete Crow-Armstrong among returning players, Ben Brown was the most unfortunate of the injuries, Javier Assad the most impact of the Iowa shuttle players, Aaron Civale the most impact of the in-season acquisitions, Tyrone Taylor of the deadline day acquisitions, Bryse Wilson the most of the in season waiver wire pickups (and eligible to be on the Milwaukee Brewers postseason roster).

So there you have it. It was a thrilling chapter to add to Heroes and Goats. We’ve had a few boring finishes, but 2026 becomes the year of the last game being decisive and the smallest ever margin of victory. It is fitting and enjoyable to me that the two men most responsible for the on field performance of this team finished number one and two. That doesn’t mean it is homogenous. There are a number of players near the bottom of the standings who I think are largely irreplaceable on this team. And if you go back up and browse history, some amazing Cubs have graced the bottom three in the past.

It feels safe to say that PCA will emerge once again as the favorite to capture this award in 2027, but here’s to hoping that Bregman keeps him honest again and that a few pitchers get more actively into the race.

Thank you everyone for reading. Thank you everyone who took the time to comment. We tend to have a very insightful group here and I appreciate that.