How will Thomson have Phillies attack Dodgers in NLDS? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
If you ever get the chance to play poker with Phillies manager Rob Thomson, be leery. If his demeanor over the past month or so when it comes to the playoffs is anything close to what it would be at the card table, good luck getting a read on him.
Thomson has been playing his thoughts on his team when it comes to the playoffs very close to the vest, from the roster, starting pitching, bullpen and the lineup. You know the answers are in his head, but they certainly aren’t about to be shared with anyone who, in his mind, doesn’t need to know.
The only leak in his secrecy has been that Cristopher Sanchez will be the Game 1 starter when his club faces the Dodgers in a best-of-five National League Division Series starting on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. Beyond that, well, it’s up to us to speculate. So that’s just what we’ll do here.
Roster
Because there is a day off between all games except Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, the bullpen will have plenty of time to rest and everyone should be available for just about every game. Therefore, I believe Thomson will go with 14 hitters and 12 pitchers for his 26-man roster in this series.
Thomson does use his bullpen a lot come playoff time, maybe even excessively, so the 12-man may surprise some, but because of the amount of rest in which they are going into the series and the way the schedule is laid out, I think that’s how he will go. So here it is:
Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Edmundo Sosa, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, Max Kepler, Nick Castellanos, Rafael Marchan, Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson.
Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Walker Buehler, Tanner Banks, Matt Strahm, David Robertson, Orion Kerkering, Jhoan Duran, Tim Mayza.
Starters
As we know, Sanchez is the No. 1 and will go every fifth day, maybe even sooner if elimination is on the table. That much is guaranteed. It seemed that having a Sanchez, Suarez, Luzardo trio to begin the series would be almost a given as the three have been the stabilizing factors among the starters since Zack Wheeler went down with his season-ending injury back in mid-August.
Also, Sanchez and Luzardo are power pitchers and having the command-centered, lighter throwing Suarez in between would probably be a strategic way to go for Thomson. But there are other factors that have to be considered.
First, Suarez has proven to be a big-game pitcher, particularly when it comes to the playoffs. As Thomson likes to say, Suarez has a heart-rate that doesn’t change, no matter the circumstances of the game. That may lend itself to Thomson wanting Suarez to start a Game 3 on the road in Los Angeles, where no matter the outcome of the first two games, is going to be a pressured situation. Suarez boasts a 2.84 ERA on the road and pitched well out in Los Angeles last month in the division-clinching win, when he allowed seven hits and three runs in six innings.
Another factor is this. Thomson has an extremely high level of confidence and loyalty to Nola, who looked phenomenal in his last start of the season against Minnesota when he went eight innings, allowed two hits and one earned run while striking out nine. It’s just a gut feeling, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finds a spot for the veteran right-hander to start one of these games, even though a three-man rotation is doable with the schedule.
Bullpen
The single certainty about the ‘pen is that Duran will close out games for Thomson. And don’t be surprised, in fact expect it, that he will be called on to get four, maybe even five outs at times during this playoff run. But getting to him with whom seems to be a pretty good problem that Thomson has right now.
Let’s assume that in these playoffs all relief appearances are high-leverage, because, well, that’s playoff baseball.
For most of the season, Kerkering has been the first right-hander that Thomson has called upon. However, since being brought to the team in early August, Robertson has earned the trust of his manager and even leaped ahead of Kerkering as the first righty out of the ‘pen.
Kerkering didn’t help his case late in the season as in four appearances from Sept. 15 to 24, he allowed four earned runs on six hits in four innings. However, in two appearances to end the season, Kerkering faced four hitters and struck out each of them, perhaps garnering his manager’s faith once again.
From the left side, it’s pretty much a given that Strahm is the first lefty that will be called upon. Strahm has given up just one earned run in his last 11 outings, which encompasses 11 innings. Thomson also has Banks in left-handed situations, and he has been very good. He is more the lefty who will come in with runners on base, and he’s been quite effective, having not allowed a run in his past seven outings.
How Thomson will use Walker or Buehler remains to be seen. Should they need a long reliever in any of the games, those are the first choices. Beyond that, it would be hard to imagine either coming in for an inning or so to get outs. If that is the case, Buehler is the first choice there.
Lineup
We all know Thomson’s propensity for changing his lineup, never more so than this season. After Turner, Schwarber and Harper, the rest of the lineup has been changed numerous times, pending on hot hitters and slumping ones. Also, how much platooning will the manager do during the postseason? Will Sosa and Stott share duties at second base? What about Castellanos and Kepler?
The Dodgers will throw right-hander Shohei Ohtani at the Phillies to begin the series on Saturday, so the outfield will most likely be Marsh in left, Bader in center and Kepler in right. Game 2 would probably be a start for Dodgers’ left-hander Blake Snell, which would may mean Sosa and Castellanos in the lineup. That deserves watching, however, as Stott has been swinging the bat very well lately and is a premier defensive second baseman.
As for the order after the first three, I think it’s a safe bet that the hot-hitting Bohm remains in the cleanup spot. Since returning from a shoulder injury nine games ago, the third baseman has gone 17 for 37 (.459) with eight RBI.
After that, Thomson may do the lefty-righty thing with Marsh and Realmuto and Kepler, Bader and Stott. Bader has cooled a bit with just four hits in his last 30 at-bats, but his comfort level will probably be higher now that Turner is back. Bader can now be a catalyst for the bottom of the order for Thomson, the role they envisioned for him when he was brought over at the trade deadline.
