The Texas Rangers, ranked third in the AL West with a 16-18 record, face the New York Yankees, who are first in the AL East with a 24-11 record. Starting pitchers are Jacob deGrom for Texas, with a 2.01 ERA, and Elmer Rodríguez for New York, with a 4.50 ERA.
The Minnesota Wild face the Colorado Avalanche in Game 2 of their second-round NHL playoff series. The Avalanche won a wild 9-6 game in the series opener on Sunday. Fourteen different players scored the 15 total goals in the game. Colorado had four goals in the final period to win.
How to watch Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - APRIL 2: Austin Reaves #15 of the Los Angeles Lakers handles the ball during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on April 2, 2026 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
After a pair of frustrating first round exits in recent years, the Lakers exorcised some demons in a cathartic win over the Rockets.
Awaiting them now, though, is the best team in the NBA in the Thunder. To say the Lakers had limited success against OKC in the regular season would be an understatement.
In the two meetings in Oklahoma, LA trailed by 30 before halftime. The only close game between the two sides was when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the likely back-to-back MVP, was out. Even if the Lakers were without Luka Dončić in that contest — a situation they’ll be in for at least the start of this series — it’s going to take a dramatic improvement from the purple and gold to make this a competitive series.
Predictably, when I fielded questions for the mailbag, all of them were about this upcoming series, ranging from how the Lakers close the gap and what the rotations are going to look like.
So, let’s dive in.
Walter Burns
What needs to improve more compared to the regular season blowouts against OKC: the defense or the offense?
Definitely the offense. The biggest takeaway from those two games in Oklahoma City was how much the Lakers’ offense was out of whack.
The Thunder feast off turnovers. At their worst, LA is prone to bad turnovers. We saw it often in the last series against the Rockets. If they commit those unforced errors against the Thunder, it’s curtains.
In multiple games, Houston used those turnovers to get back into the game, particularly in Games 1 and 2. Oklahoma City will use those turnovers to blow the game open.
Concerningly, Austin struggled mightily in those games, turning the ball over. He’s going to have to handle the ball a lot in this series. It’s going to be a huge ask considering it’s only going to be his third game back, but if the Lakers want to have any chance, they’re going to have to replicate their performance in Game 6 against Houston by being smart and taking care of the ball.
Because if you toss a lazy pass into the post, the Thunder are sprinting the other way for a huge dunk.
Walter Burns
Against the Thunders athletic bodies, should Jarred Vanderbilt get an increased role? I’m guessing Adou — what a dunk in game 6 — is not ready yet (and perhaps never will)?
I actually wonder how much Vando will play in this series. The Thunder do have athletic wings, but the issues, as always, are going to come on the other end. If the Lakers are going to have a center on the floor that isn’t a floor-spacer, then Vando is forced into one of the corners.
Oklahoma City is one of the best help defenses in the league. Adding a player on that end they don’t have to worry about only strengthens their defense.
It will allow them to either hide one of their centers in Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren on Vando or it will allow them to have a player like Alex Caruso or Cason Wallace play free safety and ball hawk.
The old adage goes trust eight, play nine. I think the Lakers’ eight are going to be the starters — Austin, Marcus Smart, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton — along with Jaxson Hayes, Jake LaRavia and Luke Kennard. Vando is the ninth guy that’s going to have to earn some trust.
As for the Adou point, he’s still pretty far away. I know he’s a fun intriguing prospect and I’m very excited to see him in Summer League, but it seems unlikely he’s going to see the court. If things are really going haywire with Vando and the Lakers really need a body out there, maybe. But in that case, I still think they’d turn to even Bronny James before Adou.
scooter
During March there was a clear pecking order on offense: Luka as ball dominant PG; AR as off-guard who would relieve LD of ball burden at times; LBJ as 3rd option, cutting to the basket etc.
Now, for this series, assuming AR’s good health, does he take LD’s role as primary initiator, or will it be like the start of the season with the lead guys alternating?
I think Austin is going to be the lead ballhandler, but I also think LeBron is going to do a lot of playmaking this round, too.
While the Thunder have a bunch of athletic wings, they don’t have many players built to slow down LeBron. The Lakers have unlocked some things with him in the post and I think they can find ways to exploit that against a smaller OKC team.
Austin also isn’t going to have the legs to be as on-ball as he was earlier in the year. Not with so little time back and heading into a playoff series that’s going to be physically demanding.
It’s going to have to be a different dynamic than it was in March, certainly. No one is going to be as ball-dominant as Luka was, but it won’t be quite as egalitarian as it was early in the Rockets series either. Expect a lot lower usage for Marcus and Luke.
What I loved about Vogel was his willingness to go to the bench for matchups in the playoffs and start guys because it was the best basketball move. Ty Lue is where he is today because when his number was called to stop Iverson, he was ready. I don’t get that vibe from JJ but hope that I am wrong. Trying the same things we did during the regular season would real bad. We have to show them new looks and a lot of them. All that said, Smart and Ayton playing out of their minds would also solve a lot of our problems.
One of my favorite traits about the bubble Lakers was their adaptability. Whatever a series called for, they had the solution. It just required them to drop Game 1 to figure things out. But by Game 2, the staff and players knew what needed to be done.
Being concerned about Redick’s adaptability is fair. It’s going to hang over him for a while after playing five players in a second half of a playoff game.
But I think the Rockets series showed that he can adapt. Take Game 6, for example. The Lakers went from doubling Alperen Şengün to playing single coverage against him. It was a bold call and required big performances from Ayton and Hayes. But it was the right call as it stalled out the Rockets’ offense.
JJ is still a second-year coach. In the 2019-20 season, Vogel was in his ninth year as a head coach after eight years as an assistant. That’s a library of knowledge he had that Redick didn’t.
In my book, Redick wiped away a fair amount of concerns about his playoff performance with that Rockets series, where he coached laps around Ime Udoka, even if that’s not hard to do.
fluminense
How much money do you think that Bill Simmons, John Hollinger and others lost after betting that the Lakers would lose in the first round and the Celtics would advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs?
DENVER, CO - MAY 3: Jonah Heim #20 of the Atlanta Braves throws to first for an out in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on May 3, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Catcher Jonah Heim, who signed with the Atlanta Braves this offseason after being non-tendered by the Texas Rangers, was traded to the Athletics yesterday for cash considerations.
Heim went to camp with the Braves on a minor league deal, but with veteran Sean Murphy starting the year on the injured list, Heim was on the Opening Day roster for Atlanta as the backup to Drake Baldwin. Murphy was activated yesterday, so Heim was designated for assignment, and then promptly traded to the A’s.
Both Heim and Murphy, incidentally, originally debuted with Oakland. Murphy was a third round pick of the A’s and spent four seasons in the majors with them before being traded to the Braves in a weird three team deal that saw the A’s get an underwhelming package of five players highlighted by Esteury Ruiz. The Milwaukee Brewers, the third team in the deal, got catcher William Contreras from Atlanta.
Heim, meanwhile, was originally drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2013, was traded to the Rays at the 2016 trade deadline, and then was sent to Oakland as the player to be named later in the Joey Wendle trade. Heim then was traded to Texas in February, 2021, as part of the Khris Davis/Elvis Andrus trade.
Heim is slashing .231/.311/.410 in 45 plate appearances so far this season, and is taking the active roster spot of Shea Langeliers, who has been placed on paternity leave. 35 year old veteran Austin Wynns has been backing up Langeliers this season, but has a 244 OPS in 39 plate appearances, and so Heim may ultimately end up replacing Wynns as the primary backup catcher.
LeBron James and the Lakers begin Round 2 of their quest for an NBA Title tonight but standing in their way are the defending champs, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minus Luka Dončić, LeBron and co. are heavy underdogs. OKC dominated the league and their treatment of the Lakers was no exception. The Thunder went 4-0 this season against Los Angeles winning by a whopping 29.3 points per game.
As if they needed more momentum and confidence, the Thunder probably got some of both in Round 1, sweeping the Suns in convincing fashion. Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander averaged 33.8 points and 8.0 assists in the four-game sweep, but their elite defense that was their calling card during the regular season, was the underlying storyline in Round 1. With home‑court advantage and a week of rest, the Thunder enter this game fully prepared and firmly in control of the narrative.
Los Angeles arrives in Oklahoma City after grinding through a six‑game series against Houston, capped by a 98–78 win in Game 6. LeBron James continues to carry the Lakers, scoring 28 points in the closeout game, but as alluded to earlier, the team remains severely shorthanded. Luka Dončić is still out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and has not progressed to full‑contact work, leaving the Lakers without their leading scorer and playmaker. The Lakers withstood a Rockets’ team in the Opening Round, but they will need to defend in this series if they even hope to contend and take even a couple games.
Matchup‑wise, the Thunder present problems at every level. Gilgeous‑Alexander is widely viewed as simply the toughest defensive assignment in the league, and OKC’s depth—featuring Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Ajay Mitchell—allows them to sustain pressure for 48 minutes. The Lakers, meanwhile, must rely heavily on LeBron and hope for strong contributions from the supporting cast including Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. OKC has religiously collapsed around Lebron to force others to beat them…and they have failed to do so.
Ultimately, the Lakers face an uphill battle. They are on short rest, missing a superstar, and entering an arena where OKC went 34–7 this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, are healthy enough, rested, and playing with the confidence of defending champions. For Los Angeles to keep this competitive, they’ll need a vintage LeBron performance, disciplined defense, and unexpected scoring from their supporting cast. Otherwise, Oklahoma City’s pace, depth, and two‑way dominance could make this another lopsided chapter in a matchup that has been one‑sided all year.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Thunder vs. Lakers
Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Time: 8:30PM EST
Site: Paycom Center
City: Oklahoma City, OK
Network/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
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Game Odds: Thunder vs. Lakers
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder (-1100), Los Angeles Lakers (+700)
Spread: Thunder -15.5
Total: 213.5 points
This game opened Thunder -15.5 with the Game Total set at 214.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Thunder vs. Lakers
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Luguentz Dort
C Isaiah Hartenstein
SF Jalen Williams
PF Chet Holmgren
Los Angeles Lakers
PG Marcus Smart
SG Austin Reaves
C Deandre Ayton
PF Rui Hachimura
SF LeBron James
Injury Report: Thunder vs. Lakers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Williams (hamstring) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
Thomas Sorber (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Doncic (hamstring) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Thunder vs. Lakers
The Lakers are 27-17 on the road this season
The Thunder are 36-7 at home this season
The Lakers are 49-38-1 ATS this season
OKC is 41-44-1 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 47 of the Thunder’s 86 games this season (47-39)
The OVER has cashed in 44 of the Lakers’ 88 games this season (44-44)
Chet Holmgren grabbed 12 rebounds in Game 4 against the Suns and averaged 8.5 rebounds per game in the series
Lu Dort scored in single digits in each game in Round 1 “highlighted” by his 1 point in Game 4
Rui Hachimura was 17-29 from beyond the arc in the First Round including 5-7 in the closeout game
Austin Reaves had 4 blocks in his 2 games in the First Round against the Suns
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s Thunder and Lakers’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Thunder -15.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 214.5
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The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-16) and Arizona Diamondbacks (16-17) meet for a three-game series at Chase Field. These two teams are headed in different directions lately. The Pirates have won the last three games, while the Diamondbacks have dropped the previous four.
Arizona is back at home after six straight road games. Arizona is on a four-game losing streak and has been outscored 29-10 in that stretch. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in the last six games and hitting .227 in that span (25th) with 39 hits (24th).
Pittsburgh is coming off a three-game sweep over Cincinnati. The Pirates outscored the Reds, 27-8 in those three games. Pittsburgh is 5-5 in the last 10 games and 7-4 in the last 11 road games.
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Pirates at Diamondbacks
Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Time: 9:40 PM EST
Site: Chase Field
City: Phoenix, AZ
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
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The Pirates’ Nick Gonzales is hitting .328 with 38 hits and 43 total bases over 116 at-bats
The Pirates’ Marcell Ozuna is hitting .189 with 21 hits and 32 strikeouts over 111 at-bats
The Diamondbacks’ Ildemaro Vargas is hitting .382 with 39 hits and 67 total bases over 102 at-bats
The Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte is hitting .214 with 27 hits and 28 strikeouts over 126 at-bats
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Giants
The Pirates are 20-15 ATS this season
The Diamondbacks are 21-12 ATS this season, ranking second-best
The Diamondbacks are 20-12-1 to the Over this season, ranking fifth-best
The Pirates are 20-15 to the Over this season
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Pirates and the Diamondbacks
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday's game two between the Pirates and the Diamondbacks:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Pirates on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Pirates at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Over on the Game Total of 9.0
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Feb 27, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) drive past Cleveland Cavaliers guard Jaylon Tyson (20) in the first half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
The rivalry between the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers stretches back so far that you have to conjure up names like Žydrūnas Ilgauskas, Darko Miličić, and LeBron James (remember that old timer?). It was the Detroit Pistons that delayed James’ ascension to title winner, which compelled his migration to South Beach, it was James who single-handedly killed the Going to Work Pistons with 25 consecutive points in 2007.
Both franchises experienced some low lows (Detroit’s much more extended), and both are among the top of the East thanks to some smart roster building and a pivotal player from the 2021 NBA Draft — Cade Cunningham for the Pistons and Evan Mobley for the Cavs.
Cleveland won 64 games last year, got bounced in the second round, and made a win-now trade for James Harden at the trade deadline. Detroit won 60 games this year and is looking at toppling the Cavs as the next step in its title-contending narrative.
The Cavs, though, don’t seem to think much of the Pistons.
In reviewing the four-game season series, it was hard to glean much from either side thanks to injuries. Each side won two, and every win has an asterisk because of key pieces missing from the starting lineup. The most recent was a 122-119 overtime win for Detroit when the Cavs were missing five rotation players, including its backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Harden.
The Cavs lost, but they had plenty to say after the game … anonymously, of course.
“They aren’t in our class,” said one anonymous player to Cleveland.com after the game.
Chris Fedor, the beat writer for the Cavs for many years, follows that up with, “Another player said he didn’t believe Detroit would even be Cleveland’s toughest matchup in the playoffs.”
I’d call it unshakeable confidence if only the players were brave enough to put a name to their words.
For better and for worse, the Pistons don’t do anything anonymously. They say it with their chest, and they aren’t afraid to get physical.
The key to this series is bringing that physicality without pushing it too far. Harden can get you in foul trouble, Ausar Thompson. Donovan Mitchell can make you regret gambling for that steal, Javonte Green. Sam Merrill will make you regret over-helping, Cade Cunningham. Isaiah Stewart can get you ejected, Isaiah Stewart.
The Pistons have a decided size advantage on the wings, and the double-big matchup between Jalen Duren and Jarrett Allen, and Isaiah Stewart (and Tobias Harris) against Evan Mobley will be the key to the series.
Detroit needs to take care of the ball, Cunningham chief among them, and they need to find a way to impose their will in a way they couldn’t manage to against the Orlando Magic until the final six quarters of the series. The Pistons need to keep building up its postseason narrative while ensuring they make the Cavs play down to theirs.
Mitchell, Harden, Mobley, and the Cavaliers are incredibly talented. But they are the ones who haven’t been able to deliver when it matters. Mitchell averages 27.8 points in the playoffs but has never escaped the conference semifinals. Harden has never missed the postseason but has only made the conference finals twice since leaving Oklahoma City in 2012. Its been four early playoff exits for the Cavs the past four seasons.
The series is there for the taking. The Pistons just need to deliver on the floor and not focus on soundbites.
The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first game of their Western Conference semifinal series. The Lakers beat the Rockets 4-2 in the first round while the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. The Thunder are favored with a spread of -15.5 and an over/under of 213.5.
How to watch Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -1111 (88.0%) / Los Angeles Lakers +700 (12.0%)
Over/Under: 213.5
Series schedule
Game 1: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (Tuesday May 5, 8:30 ET, NBC/Peacock) Game 2: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (Thursday May 7, 9:30 ET, Prime Video) Game 3: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles (Saturday May 9, 8:30 ET, ABC) Game 4: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles (Monday May 11, 10:30 ET, Prime Video) Game 5: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (Wednesday May 13)* Game 6: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles (Saturday May 16)* Game 7: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (Monday May 18)*
Our MLB best bets for May 5 start with another fade of a struggling squad, as well as banking on runs in the Bronx, despite Jacob deGrom taking the mound.
See why our expert MLB picks love the value of these two plays at Polymarket — and check back later as we add more predictions for Tuesday's action.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rangers/Yankees Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium are prime for runs, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left field and THE BAT projecting over 10 runs in this matchup. The fair price on Over 8.5 sits around -130. Jacob deGrom is always a concern, but he’s still working on a ~90-pitch leash, and the New York Yankees just saw him on April 28. On the other side, Elmer Rodriguez had an inefficient outing vs. the Texas Rangers last week — and could be in trouble again, especially with a familiarity edge for hitters on both sides.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
I don't think the Los Angeles Angels should be favored over anyone right now. After a promising start to the season, they've lost 13 of their last 15 games! Over the last two weeks, LA ranks 25th in OPS and 27th in bullpen ERA, while the Chicago White Sox sit in the top eight in both categories and have the edge on the mound tonight. Erick Fedde has been solid with a 3.24 ERA, while the Angels turn to youngster Sam Aldegheri, who's been rocked for a 7.77 ERA in AAA this season — and a 6.35 ERA in limited MLB action across the last three years.
Neil Parker's expert pick: White Sox/Angels NRFI
Price: 51¢ (-102) at Polymarket
White Sox starter Erick Fedde has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .385 OPS in the opening frame and pitched a scoreless first in three of his four starts, including last time out against these Angels. Los Angeles counters with lefty Sam Aldegheri, and he’ll have the benefit of the Chicago lineup seeing him for the first time. So, while Aldegheri’s MLB and Triple A numbers are nothing to write home about, the Pale Hose sport a .231 batting average in the first frame and score in the first inning at a league-average 28.57% rate.
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The AL Cy Young award betting market was reshaped once again by Monday’s news of Detroit Tigers ace pitcher Tarik Skubal needing elbow surgery.
Key Takeaways
Skubal was a +250 favorite last week and is now off the board.
There is no timetable yet for his return from elbow surgery.
Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler is now the market’s favorite at +200.
Not only are all three 2025 top vote getters (Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Hunter Brown) currently on the injured list, but Skubal and Crochet were co-favorites at +350 to win the award when BetMGM opened its market earlier this year.
The Tigers today placed LHP Tarik Skubal on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to May 1) with loose bodies in his left elbow. RHP Ty Madden (#36) has been recalled from Triple-A Toledo.
Skubal, who won the award last year, got as short as +175 after the first week of the regular season and was the +250 favorite heading into this week in the Cy Young odds.
By Monday afternoon, Skubal was off the board at BetMGM. There is no timetable yet for the return of the fiery left-hander, who is having loose bodies removed from his elbow.
New favorite
New York Yankees hurler Cam Schlittler was installed as the new AL Cy Young award favorite on Monday afternoon and was as low as +200 on Tuesday morning. Teammate Max Fried was listed second with odds of +350, Toronto’s Dylan Cease was placed fourth at +500, while Los Angeles Angels ace Jose Soriano was fifth at +550.
Odds spiked to +1,200 on Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom.
Crochet had fallen to over +6,000 before he was sidelined with shoulder inflammation, and he is not currently listed on BetMGM’s board. The Red Sox expect Crochet back this month.
Brown, who could return to the Astros in June, has massive odds of +20,000 to win the Cy Young.
Moving on up
The week before Skubal went on the IL, he led BetMGM’s AL Cy Young award market with 9.8% of the tickets. Skubal was second in handle (11.8%) behind Soriano’s 14.5% of the money.
Schlittler has seen his odds shorten quickly over the last few weeks. He opened at +10,000 and was down to +3,000 when the season began. A hot start got Schlittler down to +450 last week, tying him for second on the odds list with Soriano.
Schlittler has a 5-1 record and leads the AL with a 1.52 ERA. He’s tied for third in the AL in strikeouts (53) and has allowed just one home run over eight starts.
The Cleveland Cavaliers meet the Detroit Pistons in the first game of their Eastern Conference semifinals series. The Pistons and Cavs each won Game 7s in the first round to advance, beating the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors, respectively. The Pistons are favored in Game 1 by 3.5 points. The over/under for this Eastern Conference matchup is set at 215.5.
How to watch Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
Moneyline: Detroit Pistons -159 (59.1%) / Cleveland Cavaliers +135 (40.9%)
Over/Under: 215.5
Series schedule
Game 1: Cleveland at Detroit (Tuesday May 5, 7 ET, Peacock/NBCSN) Game 2: Cleveland at Detroit (Thursday May 7, 7 ET, Prime Video) Game 3: Detroit at Cleveland (Saturday May 9, 3 ET, NBC/Peacock) Game 4: Detroit at Cleveland (Monday May 11, 8 ET, NBC/Peacock) Game 5: Cleveland at Detroit (Wednesday May 13)* Game 6: Detroit at Cleveland (Friday May 15)* Game 7: Cleveland at Detroit (Sunday May 17)*
Another week in the books, another week A.J. Ewing is our Player of the Week. That’s three total weeks now, and his second in a row. This is Ewing’s first week in Triple-A, however, and the infielder/outfielder didn’t miss a beat upon being promoted.
Now that he is in Triple-A, we have some concrete statcast data. Rather than the first-hand and secondary hand anecdotal evidence such as “he hits the ball hard”, based on the eye and ear test, we can say that so far, Ewing is averaging a 92.4 MPH exit velocity in 20 batted ball events, with a high-water mark of 108.8 MPH and an average launch angle of 12-degrees. Roughly one third of his batted ball events have resulted in the ball being put in play with an exit velocity above 100 MPH and exactly half of them have resulted in the ball being put in play with an exit velocity over 95 MPH.
Ewing has almost reversed his batted ball data in the week he’s been in Syracuse, running a 29.4% line drive rate, 35.3% groundball rate, and a 35.3% flyball rate while logging 23.5% of his hits to his pull side, 29.4% of his hits up the middle, and 47.1% of his hits to the opposite field. Compare to his time in Binghamton earlier in April, where he had a 22.4% line drive rate, 55.1% groundball rate, and a 22.4% flyball rate while logging 46.9% of his hits to his pull side, 28.6% of his hits up the middle, and 24.5% to the opposite field. Since both are small sample sizes that are diametrically opposite of each other, looking to the totality of his 2025 at the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels to try to gauge which Ewing is more likely to be the real Ewing when the samples become large enough to normalize, I would say that his Binghamton numbers are closer to the player he is than his current Syracuse numbers.
In Major League Baseball this season, there are currently only a handful of players who have similar batted ball profiles to Ewing, with line drive rates around 25%, groundball rates around 50%, and flyball rates around 25% and have been able to maintain a BABIP of .350 or better a month plus into the season: Garrett Mitchell, Chase Meidroth, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Nick Gonzalez. All of those players currently range from just about average to well above-average. That puts Ewing in good company, but I highlight this more to show that there are very few players who have such a batted ball profile in the first place. By hitting the ball on the ground less, and increasing his line drive rate and/or flyball rate, he widen the tightrope that he has to establish himself as a viable major league caliber player.
Jonah Tong
Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (Triple-A)
After allowing the first two batters he faced to get on base via a walk and an error, Jonah Tong recorded 16 straight outs before allowing another baserunner, walking a batter and then allowing his first hit of the game in the sixth inning. That’s partially why his season so far is a bit deceptive; Outside of two truly poor outings, Tong hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 5.68 ERA coming into this game or his 4.60 ERA leaving it suggests and it is because of this that I really haven’t been too worried about him.
Overall, Tong has still been stingy allowing hits, and while his walk rate is up- command problems is a known issue with Tong, perhaps exacerbated right now by the Triple-A baseball/environment- his strikeout rate is up even more. With 44 punchouts Tong is tied for the International League lead and leads the Mets minor league system by a considerable margin. In the system, his 6.0 H/9 is also fourth among pitchers who have made at least three starts this season, behind Channing Austin, Nicolas Carreno, and Irving Cota. His LOB% is a poor 60.6%, over 10% lower than the general MLB average of 73%, meaning that Tong is being disproportionately burned by relievers failing to convert outs and strand the runners that he is leaving on base; if you bump his LOB% up by 10%, his ERA drops by two runs to a more palatable looking 4.02 ERA.
Further calming my agita, nothing has obviously backed up when you look at the right-hander’s pitch metrics; all of his pitches still show fringe-average or better.
His four-seam fastball is still a plus pitch, possessing premium mid-90s velocity that he holds deep into games and elite induced vertical break. So far, while the on-the-field results have been strong, he is not getting the same amount of swings-and-misses against it that he did last season, running a 27.9% Whiff% with his fastball, well below the 41.1% Whiff% he posted last season in Triple-A but a bit better than the 22.3% Whiff% he posted at the major league level.
His recently added cutter has similar characteristics, sitting in the low-90s and featuring above-average induced vertical break in addition to its average-for-a-cutter 4.1 inches of glove-side movement, but the results haven’t quite been there yet. Most of the damage batters have done against Tong have come from his cutter- they are hitting .261/.346/.478 against it with very few whiffs, a 24.4% to be exact.
His changeup is still an above-average pitch. Featuring 13.9 inches of arm-side break, average for a Vulcan change- though he throws a unique variant on that changeup variant, a two-seam Vulcan, if you will- Tong’s features almost double the amount of vertical break other Vulcan changeups possess. Combined with the high arm slot that he throws from, and the 1:45 spin axis the pitch is thrown on, and his is not only pick up on out of the hand but possesses true above-average movement to boot. Batters are not hitting it hard, and the pitch has a strong 35.6% Whiff% at present.
His curveball is still an average pitch, sitting in the high-70s and featuring 57.8 inches of vertical drop, making it massive near 12-6 bender. It can sometimes get loopier and lose its bite, but even when it does, Tong is able to command the pitch effectively to have it fall in for strikes or to hit the shadow of the zone, setting up his next pitch in his sequence. Batters are not hitting the pitch hard, and the pitch has a 30.4% Whiff%.
His slider is used extremely sparingly, but still projects to be average offering when he does throw it. With 7.2 inches of glove-side movement and 47 inches of vertical drop on average, the pitch has above-average movement in both regards. His inability to command this pitch in particular detracts from its overall effectiveness, prompting the right-hander to both not throw it much and to throw it for balls when he does.
There is ample evidence to suggest that Tong is going to improve from his middling beginning of the year, and with the weather warming up soon and the right-hander getting more experience in Triple-A under his belt, I would expect him to get out of this funk sooner rather than later.
Holy cow. 42 years of watching baseball prepares you for so many things. So many days, you “feel” what is going to happen next. Obviously, I liked this matchup on paper for this game. Chase Petty has a pretty decent pedigree, but he hadn’t yet established himself at the major league level. I doubt any memoirs will be written about his first 2026 start, 5.2 innings and three runs allowed. But against a Cub offense that has been terrific, four hits and two walks in just shy of six innings is a good outcome. Cub starter Edward Cabrera bested him by just one out. But he allowed the same three runs and two walks. But his outing came with nine hits. The Reds had constant traffic and save for one inning, Petty was real effective.
So it was that as this one got into the late innings and after Ben Brown yielded a run in the eighth, this one felt like it might be a loss. But then, that pesky Cub offense loaded the bases in the eighth. Maybe. Maybe they could at least tie it. But when they left the bases loaded, you could feel it deflate. And why not, really? The Reds had basically an 84 percent chance to win after the eighth inning.
I saw Ryan Rolison pitch for the first time. What an impressive performance it was. He faced three batters, struck them all out and then had some serious vibes going as he walked off the field. It will be so easy to do, but we shouldn’t overlook how important it is to go lock it down in that spot. It changes the whole energy of the inning if that is a two run (or more) deficit in the bottom of the ninth. Still, this Reds team is in contention through this point in the season, basically because they’ve won literally every close game that they have played. This was a tall task. Even after Rolison froze that lead at one, the Cubs still had only a 19.5 percent chance of winning heading to the bottom of the ninth.
The data I saw said that the ball Pete Crow-Armstrong hit to start the ninth inning would have been a homer in 17 parks. Credit for Pete for busting it out of the box and getting a relatively easy triple after the ball dropped against the wall. The biggest drama there was him holding on to the base after a full speed slide into third. Additional kudos for Pete coming through after two quick strikes on him. After his triple, the Cubs jumped all of the way up to 58.3 percent chance of winning. That was about as big of a WPA play as we’ve seen. At least for a few more batters.
Then Dansby Swanson struck out. That dropped the Cubs back down to a 40.9 percent chance of winning. Outs are SO valuable. So valuable, in fact, that when Nico Hoerner hit the decently deep fly ball that I’m sure most of us expected, the chance of winning only bounced up to 53.4 percent. A tie game with two outs in the ninth is largely a coin flip.
You had to expect Michael Conforto to get to bat for Matt Shaw in that spot. What I would never have guessed is that Michael Conforto, in what has been a pretty decent career, had never hit a walk-off homer. His 180th career homer isn’t an insane number to never have one. With a career that has seen him go from the Mets to the Giants to the Dodgers (and now the Cubs), it feels like he’s been around some good teams. In a season of amazing things, Michael’s first ever walk-off homer is also his first homer for the Cubs. He crushed it, too. There wasn’t a lot of drama in it getting out. I’m fully aware of the late career bench players the Cubs have had in recent years. I also know that at 32 years old, he wasn’t very valuable for the Dodgers and wasn’t playing by the time they reached the postseason (despite 122 games started for them).
From Cabrera’s quality start, to Seiya Suzuki’s monstrous three-run, game-tying homer, to Rolison’s dominant inning, to PCA’s triple, to Nico’s sacrifice fly to Conforto’s walk-off, this one was thrilling throughout. It feels like the term “playoff baseball” maybe gets thrown around too easily. But, this felt like a big game for May 4. Every one of those contributions I mentioned above and several others that helped set the stage contributed to an exciting and fulfilling game.
Six straight wins. 12 straight wins at home. 16 of 19 overall. This team is blazing hot. In the division that has been the best one in baseball so far, the Cubs are creating a little space in the standings. What a time to be alive!
Three Positives:
It feels impossible to pick just three. Conforto has to get this top spot for the game winner. Great moment for him. Great moment for the team.
Pete Crow-Armstrong started the rally with his triple and then scored. The OPS trickles up to .667.
Seiya Suzuki for the giant three-run homer. He had a single and a walk as well. It isn’t often that a three-run, game-tying homer while down three gets upstaged by not one but two other high value plays.
The Cubs ended up with six hits and six walks. That’s a pretty good performance by the Reds pitching staff.
Game 35, May 4: Cubs 5, Reds 4 (23-12)
WPA Graph
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Conforto (.466). 1-1, HR, RBI, R
3rd largest WPA score of the year. Conforto also has the 2nd highest (4/19 against the Mets)
Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.29). 1-4, 3B, R
Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.26). 2-3, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.27). 0-4
Goat: Ben Brown (-.20). IP, 5 BF, H, BB, ER, K
Kid: Carson Kelly (-.17). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Conforto’s walk-off, game-winning homer. (.466)
*Reds Play of the Game: Ke’Bryan Hayes hir a two-out, two-run home in the second gave the Reds a three-run lead. (.199)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 34 Winner: Michael Bush received 43% of the votes (94 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Michael Conforto +10
Nico Hoerner +9.5
Shōta Imanaga +7
Pete Crow-Armstrong/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton/Jacob Webb -6
Matt Shaw -9
Seiya Suzuki -11
Current Win Pace: 106.45
Up Next: Game two of the four-game set between these two teams. Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41, 34.2 IP) makes his seventh start of the season. Last time he allowed three runs over seven innings of work, allowing only three hits and one walk at San Diego. The Reds start 26-year-old Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97, 34.2 IP) who will be making his eighth start of the season. Abbott was the second round pick of the Reds in 2021 (53rd overall). The Cubs are only 5-5 when the other team starts a lefty but 18-7 when they start a righty.
Bringing back a discussion that ran through much of last season, the Cubs actually have a pretty considerable lead on best OPS versus lefties at .830. They have an .037 lead on the Dodgers. That same gap again would drop down to ninth. So the Cubs have separated from the pack that way. They are .056 behind the Braves against righties (.761). This same exact phenomenon existed all of last year. The Cubs hit lefties well, but don’t end up winning for whatever variety of reasons.
13 in a row at home would be an amazing feat. I don’t know about you, but I’m just fine if they want to keep on going.
Boston, MA - May 1: Boston Red Sox left fielder Roman Anthony walks in the dugout before the game. The Boston Red Sox played the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on May 1, 2026. (Photo by Finn Gomez/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Much has been made about the fact that the Red Sox lineup was essentially constructed around the belief that Roman Anthony, despite not yet hitting his 22nd birthday, would perform like one of the best hitters in the game this year. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened yet. Anthony is slashing just .229/.354/.321 (though the underlying metrics suggest he hasn’t been nearly that bad) and the lineup’s been struggling to score with him at the top of it. But now, for a few days at least, it will need to find a way to score without him at all. Anthony has flown back to Boston to see a specialist after leaving last night’s game with right wrist discomfort. X-rays conducted in Detroit last night were negative, which is certainly great to hear, but the Sox can’t afford to take any chances. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)
That’s not the only injury the Sox are monitoring right now. Lefty reliever Danny Coulombe has been placed on the 15-day IL with cervical spasms, and he has absolutely no idea how he got them. “Old age?” Coulombe guessed. “I think when you sleep on a lot of different pillows, sometimes you just tweak things. I don’t have anything else.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
Brayan Bello is not injured; he’s just been terrible. In an attempt to help him fight his way out of his funk, Bello will not start tonight’s game, but will instead follow Jovani Moran as an opener. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
So how are things going with the starters who are injured? Everything went swimmingly when Sonny Gray threw a bullpen over the weekend, and he is expected to be activated and start tomorrow night’s game against the Tigers. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, feels good after being forced out of a recent game due to hamstring tightness, while Garrett Crochet is playing catch to rebuild arm strength after going on the IL with shoulder inflammation. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)
Interim manager Chad Tracy isn’t going to have much success without health from his big arms, no matter what changes he implements. But here’s an early look at some of those changes anyway, with the most impactful one being that he’s dealing with the outfield logjam by keeping Masataka Yoshida on the bench to use as a pinch-hitter. (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)
Tracy’s reasoning for benching Yoshida is based on the fact that the three other outfield/DH options have better all-around skill sets and provide more ways to win. Jarren Duran’s home run last night was the key hit in the game and a reminder of just how much he can help the Sox win when he’s firing. (WEEI)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 15: J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies (wearing #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson) looks on during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The automated ball and strike system is here to stay, and we’ve already seen its impact around baseball. It seems that the general consensus between players, fans, and media after one month of the new system is that it’s a welcome improvement that also adds a bit of a new strategy wrinkle to games. So, let’s take this opportunity to see how the Phillies have utilized their ABS challenges and how successful they’ve been after the month of April.
As a team, the Phillies are near the bottom of the league in total number of challenges issued, with their 59 challenges entering play on Monday ranking 25th in baseball. They’ve been correct in their challenge 51% of the time, putting them at 21st in baseball. For comparison, the Minnesota Twins have issued the most challenges with 97 but they’ve only been correct 54% of the time, putting them 13th in accuracy. Meanwhile the Arizona Diamondbacks have been the most accurate in their challenges, as they were correct 64% of the time despite ranking 28th in total challenges issued.
As may have been expected, J.T. Realmuto has been one of the best at challenging pitches as a catcher. He’s done it seven times and has been correct six times. It’s a small sample as Realmuto has just returned from the injured list, but his 86% success rate has him tied for fifth best among catchers who have issued at least five challenges so far. However, the Phillies other two catchers have not had the same amount of success. Garrett Stubbs has only issued two challenges, getting one right and one wrong. Rafael Marchán meanwhile has challenged 16 pitches in his 16 games in the majors this year and has a 50%-win rate. That half and half win percentage ties Marchán for the ninth worst rate among all catchers who have issued at least 15 challenges.
An early trend league wide is that many teams are not allowing their pitchers to challenge pitches. It’s a logical position, as pitchers could be too emotional or not in a good position to actually see where the pitch ended up. However, the Phillies are one team that has allowed their pitches to challenge, and Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are among the league leaders in challenges issued. Of course, the league lead is only three challenges held by old friend Gregory Soto. Nevertheless, Sánchez and Luzardo have both challenged two pitches with the former being 0-2 and the latter being 1-1. Zach Pop was the first and only other Phillies pitcher to challenge this year and he was unsuccessful on one attempt.
Phillies hitters have issued 29 challenges, placing them 19th among all teams. Their 48%-win rate is among the top half of the league though, ranking 12th best. Kyle Schwarber has issued the most challenges as a hitter for the Phillies with 8 which also puts him in an eight-way tie for the fifth most among all hitters league wide. Schwarber has won five challenges and lost three, giving him a success rate of 63% that is 12th best among all hitters who have issued at least five challenges. He’s also the only Phillies hitter to attempt a challenge more than three times, with Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Justin Crawford all tied for second place. Bohm has been the most successful of that group, going 2-3 while Harper and Turner are both 1-3. Crawford so far is 0-3 and is the only Phillies to have issued more than one challenge that has not been correct yet, an interesting early development considering Crawford played with the ABS all of last season in Triple-A. He wasn’t particularly good at it there either though, as Crawford went 3-10 on challenges in 2025.
These are just some of the early trends through one month of the ABS system. It will be fascinating to see if teams and players adjust their strategies as everyone around Major League Baseball gets more comfortable with the idea of being able to challenge balls and strikes.
