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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves in the Bronx on Friday...

5 things to watch

Matching up with a division leader

The Yankees' schedule after the All-Star break has been tough. Every series has seen them match up against a playoff team or a team that is in the hunt, and New York has held its own.

After taking two of three from the Phillies, they went 4-3 in Chicago against the White Sox and Cubs. But after dropping their series against the Cardinals, the Yankees will now see the NL East-leading Braves.

Atlanta has won seven games in a row and is currently the No. 2 seed in the National League. 

Similar to the Dodgers series, this could be a potential World Series preview.

Finally a break

The Yankees have an off day Thursday, their first in 13 days. 

It allows the overworked bullpen to reset and perhaps the day off can give the lineup a chance to get a blow after struggling for much of the last few weeks. 

The Yanks have scored more than three runs just twice over their last nine games. And their series finale against the Cardinals on Wednesday left a lot to be desired -- 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and 11 left on base.

Can newcomers get going?

It's only been a few games, and Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos are still getting acclimated to life in pinstripes. 

This will be a good test against a Braves rotation that should include Chris Sale pitching one of these games.

Garcia is 3-for-11 with a home run in his first three games since being acquired, while Ramos is 1-for-7 in his first two. 

Both sluggers were acquired at the deadline to boost the anemic offense and while they've had moments, the Yankees need them to get rolling in their new attire to help New York get back to its winning ways.

Lombard's development

George Lombard Jr. had an amazing debut and a solid second game, and will look to keep that momentum going over the weekend.

Although we shouldn't expect the shortstop to be a world-beater at the plate, at least not yet, he'll get his real first test with a Braves team that can deploy some major arms, especially out of the bullpen. 

Let's see Lombard continue to get used to major league pitching, while his already-elite defense continues to shine.

Cam not good at home

Cam Schlittler is the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young, but he was roughed up his last time out. The Cardinals scored four runs in three innings off the right-hander earlier this week, and Schlittler will look to bounce back.

While Schlittler usually doesn't have two bad starts in a row, it's worth monitoring how he pitches at home. He has a 1.10 ERA on the road, but a 4.32 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season.

Can he buck that trend this Sunday?

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Luis Garcia Jr.

Garcia nearly had his Yankee moment in his first game, and has hits in each game he's appeared in since the trade. That should continue this weekend.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best game?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler will bounce back. He hasn't really had back-to-back clunkers this season.

Which Braves player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Matt Olson

Olson is having a great season and it'll be hard to keep him from going yard this weekend.

Kyle Schwarber has been arguably the Phillies best and most consistent hitter this season, but even he too is not immune to slumps. In Schwarber’s case, he has not homered since July 18th and has hit only three round trippers since the start of July across a total of 112 plate appearances. To his credit, he still has a healthy on-base percentage over that span at .349, but the Phillies are at their best when Schwarber is slugging.

The 33-year-old Schwarber missed two games in June with what has been reported as an unspecified back injury and has completely changed his pre-game routine because of it, opting to hit indoors rather than out on the field as described in a recent article by Matt Gelb of the Athletic. In that article published on August 2nd, Schwarber insists that he is not hurt but also acknowledges that it will take time to return to 100%.

The back ailment, something Schwarber played through, was probably a bigger deal than anyone acknowledged.

“When you come back from an issue like that, it’s not going to be 100 percent right away,” Schwarber said. “That’s the thing about that. You’re not going to feel like you were right before it. I wish I did. But you’re going to find a way to get through it.”

From Matt Gelb in the Athletic.

There are other more tactile factors to Schwarber’s slump, such as his swing percentage on pitches outside the zone rising coupled with an uptake in general whiffs, but the mysterious back injury still casts a specter of doubt that maybe it too is playing a part in Schwarber’s power outage.

So, what’s your concern level about Kyle Schwarber’s health? Is the previous back injury a bigger deal than it was initially made out to be? Or is this just a run of the mill slump that comes for every player at some point?

This is a really quick one because I uh… forgot… yesterday (and today), until now.

The Braves basically acquired three guys at the Trade Deadline. One has already appeared, two have not.

Which will have the biggest impact? Define that however you want.

Draftees, trades, and graduations have really shaken things up in the Twins organization this month as the system has added and lost a bunch of notable prospects. The top of the list remains loaded high-minors talent that is likely to contribute to the major league team in 2027 or potentially as early as this fall.

No. 3 pick Vahn Lackey headlines the list of additions, but there are a handful of 2026 draftees scattered throughout the top 40. The month of August has kicked off with the surprise departure of Dasan Hill, but he has effectively been replaced by another high-upside flamethrower in Ethan Wachsmann. There is a lot to unpack with this evolving system and as always, we begin at the top…

1. OF Walker Jenkins (AAA)

We have gotten modest offensive production from Walker Jenkins since he returned from injury towards the end of June, but that’s really a testament to how steady and polished of a player he is at just 21 years old. Jenkins is batting .298 with an .839 OPS since returning, which is impressive in itself, but his peripheral numbers are even better.

He has maintained an elite zone contact rate of nearly 95% all season while striking out at a 15% clip, and his 106 MPH 90th percentile EV is very healthy. There is above-average power potential if he can elevate the ball more consistently. Jenkins has been more aggressive in the strike zone lately, which is limiting his walk rate but leading to a stronger power output. It’s also noteworthy that the platoon splits have been pretty drastic. His only slight issue against righties is chasing changeups a bit too much, but he’s posting elite contact rates and producing a ton of power. Lefties are giving Jenkins some real fits. He’s making enough contact to be a passable hitter there, but is yet to find any power.

He is still playing almost strictly center field as he nears a major league debut. His plus arm likely fits best in right field, but I expect him to be the secondary center fielder behind Buxton, and he has the range and instincts to be solid there. Don’t worry about the lack of elite production at the plate, Walker Jenkins is a polished five tool prospect and is absolutely ready for the big leagues.

2. C Vahn Lackey (A)

Vahn Lackey just started playing in the Twins system and we will get a good look at him in the lower levels over the final month and a half. It has been one hell of a year for Lackey, who broke out at Georgia Tech and became the No. 3 overall pick in the draft this summer. He opens as my No. 2 Twins prospect, but a close 2nd to Walker Jenkins.

Lackey has a borderline plus hit tool. He crushes fastballs, but has had some issues against offspeed. His loud leg kick may be contributing to those issues, making it difficult for him to adjust to less velocity. His power has developed in a big way as well this year. He has posted exit velocities north of 110 MPH and has a good feel for pulling fly balls. His swing decisions will be interesting to watch as his sample size builds because he showed much improved patience this spring, nearly doubling his walk rate from last season while continuing to cut his strikeout rate.

The defense is equally or maybe even more impressive. He is a unique athlete at the catcher position. He is a threat on the bases and shows off excellent lateral movement skills behind the dish. With a plus arm and advanced receiving and blocking, there is plus potential at catcher. The defensive potential and continued development at the plate make Lackey an elite prospect and a guy who is still trending up. There is legit Adley Rutschman-esque No. 1 MLB prospect potential here if the bat translates well. Home run pick by the Twins.

3. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (AAA)

Are we finally getting close to an Emmanuel Rodriguez debut? E-Rod is back from his thumb surgery and could really provide some thump to the Twins lineup down the stretch. He is crushing Triple-A, slashing .247/.417/.506 for a 137 wRC+ in 25 games this year.

He possesses 70 grade raw power and his 118.3 MPH max EV and 111.3 90th percentile EV remain among the few best in the world. His contact rates are concerning, but a mature approach and excellent swing decisions help reduce the hit tool issues. Defensively, he has good range and a plus arm. There is solid center field talent here, but it’s unclear how the outfield situation will shake out going forward with Buxton, Jenkins, and Rodriguez among others.

The offensive ceiling is undeniable, which is why I’ve kept him at the top of the rankings despite all of the injuries. At 23 years old, E-Rod already holds one of the most powerful bats in the world and complements it with a couple of other quality tools.

4. SS Kaelen Culpepper (AAA)

Kaelen Culpepper was rolling and seemed just days away from his major league debut until a glute injury sent him to the IL in the middle of June. He is back in action now, but the injury put a wrench in a season that was looking very promising.

Culpepper has a borderline plus hit tool, posting zone contact rates close to 90% with a good batted ball profile. His max EV around 110 MPH and 90th percentile around 104 are around MLB average, and his quality feel for pulling fly balls gives him a good chance for average or better power production. The swing decisions and plate approach are the most concerning part of his game. He has cut down on his swing rates this year and is a more patient hitter, but the swing decisions remain poor.

Kaelen is a good runner and has proven to be an effective bag-stealer on good volume. He’s a smooth and reliable defender that has spent most of his time at shortstop this year. Projects as a quality shortstop who will start there when he debuts, but may get pushed off the position by Marek Houston. Culpepper is a great fit at third base as well, where his plus arm will absolutely play.

5. SS Marek Houston (AA)

The Twins’ 2025 1st round pick just keeps getting better and better as he quickly pushes towards the top of the minor leagues. Houston slashed .358/.429/.611 with a 159 wRC+ with the Wind Surge in July and has shown no signs of slowing down.

While there is fringy raw power is his bat, Houston is making the most of it by consistently finding the barrel and displaying functional gap power. His hit tool is above average, running overall contact rates around 80%. I’ve been most impressed with his approach this year. He’s a patient hitter with excellent spin recognition, always looking comfortable at the plate and putting together mature at-bats.

His defense is silky smooth. Houston is a plus defender at short and seems to be a lock to take over the Twins shortstop job when he reaches the majors. He’s also a plus runner who is on pace to steal nearly 60 bags this season. While much of the value was initially expected to come on the defensive side, the bat has broken out this year and is pushing Marek firmly into top 100 prospect rankings. A 2027 debut is expected, and the chances of him making the Opening Day roster are increasing every day.

6. LHP Kendry Rojas (MLB)

After being acquired in the Louie Varland trade last July, Kendry Rojas had a rough go in his first taste of Triple-A, but he came back this year with improved stuff. His fastball has ticked up and we are seeing improvements with his slider.

Despite the high walk rates, I am fairly impressed with Kendry’s feel for command. He is consistently keeping the fastball up in the zone, slider in the chase area, and changeup down and away from righties. He was nibbling too much early on, but has cranked up the aggressiveness lately as I think he’s realizing he can get away with more in the zone than he thought.

The fastball is sitting around 96 and topping 98 with some good life at the top of the zone. Slider has turned into a deadly whiff pitch in the upper 80s while the changeup has been barreled a bit too much this year, but has added some depth and grades out as an above-average offering against righties. He’s working a hybrid role this year, throwing 2-4 innings at a time, sometimes as the starter and others as a follower. There is mid rotation potential if he can throw enough strikes, but it may be beneficial to add another pitch given that he only has two distinct velocities at the moment. If he doesn’t work out as a starter, there could be some real gas as a lefty bullpen arm. Not a finished product, but a fun player with good stuff and a lot of potential at 23 years old.

7. RHP Charlee Soto (A+)

Charlee Soto briefly returned from injury in June but was sent back to the IL after forearm soreness continued to be an issue. He is now back on a throwing program, but we likely won’t see much more of him on the mound this year. Still, I’m obsessed with the profile.

The injuries are starting to pile up, but at 6’3” with a linebacker build, there is no doubt that he has the frame to handle high velocity. The fastball has pushed into the upper 90s and averaged 98.1 MPH in his two short starts this year. It’s a sinker-type that fills up the zone and generates ground balls. The secondaries are what makes Charlee Soto so intriguing. He speeds you up with the high velocity and then picks you apart with three plus secondaries. He has always had a natural changeup feel, generating 17 inches of horizontal movement in the upper 80s with excellent command. He has a cutter in the upper 80s and a slider in the mid 80s, both generating plus depth with spin rates around 2,400.

He is developing solid command and has filled up the strike zone in his first few years in the pros. It is firmly frontline starter profile if he can build up a workload while staying healthy. Soto is still just 20 years old with probably the most talented arm in the system.

8. C Eduardo Tait (A+)

Eduardo Tait drops a bit in the rankings this month as we just aren’t seeing much improvement from him throughout this season. He finally turns 20 this month and is still firmly on track in his development even if he starts next season at High-A.

Tait batted .250 with a .749 OPS in July, running average contact rates with a free-swinging approach. His 70 grade power is already looking legit as he is now up to 18 homers on the season. The hit tool is fringy but looks like it will be good enough to support his elite power. His chase rate has climbed over 40% this year. Approach improvements are a necessity for Tait to find sustained success in the majors. With a plus arm, there is a good chance for him to develop into a playable catcher. His blocking and receiving have work to do, but Tait is still early in his development and has plenty of time to get there.

It has been a frustrating season for the young backstop, but he is still one of the most advanced teenage hitters in the world and has superstar potential. Its a comparable profile to Salvador Perez or Hunter Goodman as an aggressive power hitter who can provide some thump to the middle of a lineup while playing passable defense at the most important position on the diamond.

9. RHP Riley Quick (AA)

Riley Quick has struggled with walks and homers in his first professional season, but the stuff is some of the best in the organization. He has dealt with blisters on his throwing hand all season, which could be contributing to the command issues. Still, he put up elite strikeout rates in the low minors and now has pushed his way up to Double-A, where his stuff will get a real challenge.

While his fastball has good velocity in the 94-97 range, his wide and whippy delivery best accommodates a sinker type that fills up the strike zone and generates ground balls with lower whiff rates. His secondaries do the heavy lifting, led by a mid 80 slider that generates elite whiff rates with spin rates around 2,800 and some nasty two-plane break. He throws a harder cutter and a slower curveball that are solid offerings and add a couple more layers to keep hitters off-balance. His changeup is also a huge weapon, possessing elite depth in the upper 80s, but he has struggled to command the pitch at times.

Quick maxed out at 62 innings in his junior year at Alabama after getting Tommy John in 2024. He is already approaching that number this year and it will take a few years for him to build up a starter workload. Definitely high reliever risk here, but Riley Quick has frontline starter upside if he can stay healthy and throw enough strikes.

10. C Carson Tinney (A)

2026 2nd round pick Carson Tinney didn’t waste any time showing Twins fans what he can do when he was sent to Fort Myers. His first hit as a pro was a home run with an exit velocity of 114.9 MPH, the hardest-hit ball in Mighty Mussels franchise history and harder than any ball hit by a Twins player this season.

There is a lot of whiff in his big righty swing, but Tinney mitigates those issues with an extremely patient approach and low chase rates. His 70 grade power is arguably the best in the entire 2026 draft, and he’s already putting it on display. It is TBD exactly where the hit tool stands, but his 80% zone contact rate at Texas gives me hope that his contact skills are good enough to let the power flourish.

He is a bit lumbery with his big frame, not a great athlete behind the dish, but he has a good arm and enough technical skill to make me believe he can be a passable catcher. Otherwise, the Twins may explore a move to first base. He has a good chance to mash his way through the low minors pretty quickly, but the upper levels will provide a much better litmus test as soon as next season. Huge upside in his bat, but some clear hit tool concerns.

11. RHP Adrian Bohorquez (A+)

The flamethrowing righty has struggled with command in his return from a forearm strain, but he showed last year that he can be a strike-thrower, and the stuff is very exciting. Bohorquez has found some more velo in 2026, sitting 96-98 with his fastball. He gets quality carry towards the top of the zone and has shown he can maintain velocity deep into outings. His slider in the upper 80s and a curveball in the low 80s both generate elite whiff rates, possessing plus spin and sharp break. His power changeup in the low 90s is a bit flat but gets a ton of ground contact. Bohorquez has been dominant against righties, but has really struggled to generate whiffs against lefties. If he can’t find more success with the changeup, there is significant reliever risk. Still, the stuff is excellent and would fit seamlessly into the back end of a bullpen.

12. 3B/OF Brandon Winokur (AA)

Brandon Winokur’s first taste of Double-A has gone quite well. Contact rates have remained concerning, but he’s producing power and showing great signs of development in both the infield and outfield. His chase rates have climbed and his 74% zone contact is poor, but he is still 21 with plus power potential that he’s tapping into more this summer. With a plus arm and above-average legs, Winokur projects to be an asset at third base or in the outfield, and I think he can be a legit center fielder. Now in Double-A, the lack of a hit tool is still not slowing his production. With flashy raw tools, there is plenty of value in a power/defense profile.

13. OF Hendry Mendez (AAA)

Hendry Mendez has settled down after a hot spring, but it’s an interesting profile from the 6’3” lefty outfielder. His flat and violent swing creates plus contact rates and a lot of hard ground balls, which has led to batting averages around .300 since joining the Twins organization last July. With a max EV of 112 MPH and a 90th around 105, Mendez has above-average raw pop, but the ground ball rates severely limit his functional power. Swing decisions continue to be excellent. He is aggressive in the strike zone while maintaining a chase rate around 20%. He lacks speed and defensive instincts as the Saints have strictly played him in left field and DH this year. The bat has .300 AVG potential and he puts together tough at-bats. The Twins may explore some swing adjustments to try to tap into the raw power more, but even in his current state, Mendez is almost a guaranteed big league hitter.

14. RHP Ethan Wachsmann (DRAFT)

The Twins paid $2.25M (slot value $1.05M) to pry 18-year-old Ethan Wachsmann away from Wake Forest in the 3rd round. The 6’5” righty is raw but oozing with arm talent. He has a fairly easy delivery from a 3/4 arm slot. The ball pops out of his hand, sitting upper 90s and running up to 100 with a lot of spin. Likely looking at more of a sinker type similar to Charlee Soto unless there are some mechanical changes. He has a trio of secondaries that have flashed some fun potential, but are very raw at the moment. The most enticing is the curveball around 80, which is highly inconsistent but has flashed spin rates as high as 2,900 with sharp two-plane break. He has a harder cutterish slider in the mid 80s and an upper 80s changeup that kills spin and has flashed some quality fade. There is a long way to go, as we have seen with Dasan Hill and Charlee Soto, but the velocity and spin with his big frame make Ethan Wachsmann an incredibly exciting pitching prospect.

15. RHP Ryan Gallagher (AAA)

The numbers are not pretty for Ryan Gallagher this year, but he has really started to find success lately. His 4.12 ERA and 4.19 FIP in July was well above-average for the International League, and he kicked off August with 9 strikeouts over 6 innings of one-run ball. Gallagher is starting to find the strike zone more consistently while missing barrels. His fastball sits 91-94 and has struggled to miss bats, but is filling up the zone and generating weak air contact. The mid 80s cutter has been the biggest contributor to his newfound success as it has added some depth and he is locating it well away from righties to generate a 48% whiff rate in July. His changeup has elite velo separation from the fastball at 79-81 and gets quality depth, which has made it a dangerous whiff pitch against both lefties and righties. A curveball around 80 has been hit hard at times, but is a solid fourth offering. Lefties have teed off on Gallagher this year despite the success of his changeup. He looks like a solid end of the rotation starter that can eat innings, but may need to add a tick to the fastball to give him a better shot at big league success.

16. OF Yasser Mercedes (A+)

Some deficiencies have shown through for Yasser Mercedes, but it was ultimately a productive month of July. He batted .284 with an .865 OPS on the month, hitting for good power but running a 30.6% strikeout rate. There are clear hit tool concerns with Yasser and the swing decisions have looked poor as well, but the raw power and quality of contact has been so incredibly impressive. It’s easy plus power and he’s a plus runner who has stolen 41 bags so far this season. He has a big arm, but lacks instincts in the outfield and likely fits best in right field. Mercedes is oozing with raw talent, but the 21-year-old needs to show he can keep up this production down the stretch in order to stay on track.

17. RHP Brett Renfrow (DRAFT)

6’3” right-hander Brett Renfrow made 15 starts with 70+ innings in each of his three season at Virginia Tech. He will be ready to hit the ground running next year, where his smooth mechanics, quality strike-throwing, and 4 pitch arsenal should allow him to eat innings as a high-probability starter. He gets good extension down the mound on his fastball that sits low 90s and tops out around 97 with good carry and spin. Renfrow has a good feel for spin on the breaking balls, featuring a mid 80s slider with some good bite and a little late sweep. The curveball can be a nice 4th offering in the low 80s. The changeup has shown good iVB separation from the fastball, but is still developing a feel. There is a baseline as a quality reliever here with the carry fastball and good slider. If that fastball can creep up into the mid 90s more consistently and we get some changeup development, I see mid rotation upside here.

18. C/OF Khadim Diaw (AA)

The Twins have gotten nonstop production out of Khadim Diaw since he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2024. He has fringy power, but the hit tool is looking borderline plus this year and has translated seamlessly to Double-A. His 85% zone contact and 84% overall contact in Double-A are strong numbers, and he pairs it with great swing decisions. He’s a good athlete with an interesting utility catcher profile as well. I question his arm at catcher, but his blocking and receiving has developed nicely. He can play a good corner outfield and potentially a passable center field while filling in at catcher. We will see if Diaw can hit enough at the major league level, but the minor league production has been great, and he provides some valuable defensive versatility. He turns 23 at the end of the month.

19. RHP James Ellwanger (A)

The 2025 3rd round pick underwent Tommy John in June and will now spend the entire offseason and potentially a portion of next year rehabbing. He turns 23 next season and has just 11 professional innings under his belt, but it’s 11 scoreless innings at that, and Ellwanger has very intriguing stuff. The fastball is mid 90s but lacks quality shape, which is limiting its swing-and-miss potential. His low 80s curveball is the best pitch with some sharp two-plane break. A cutter in the low 90s has potential and his changeup flashes plus with elite depth. Ellwanger threw an adequate amount of strikes in April, but it was a lot of spray-and-pray with poor precision. The velocity and feel for spin makes for exciting potential, but command concerns and now a torn UCL make him more likely than not a reliever.

20. OF Eduardo Beltre (A)

I dropped Eduardo Beltre down my rankings a little bit earlier this summer, but I’ve had a renewed belief in him despite the fact that he hasn’t played since April due to a knee injury and is out for the season. There are some concerns with swing decisions, but he has shown off plus power potential since his debut season in the DSL where he jacked 11 homers in 43 games at age 17. He already has a strong build and is running exit velocities up to 110 MPH. It’s a small sample size, but his 83% zone contact rate this season gives me hope that there is a playable hit tool, and his strikeout rates were manageable during his time in rookie ball. Beltre is a good athlete who can steal some bags. He has split time across all three outfield spots, and his plus arm and quality range project to fit nicely into a corner spot with some playable center field defense. Losing nearly a full season this early in his career is a tough break, but Eduardo Beltre is a toolsy right-handed hitter with some real slugger potential.

21. SS Quentin Young (A)

One look at the monstrous swing and you can tell that Quentin Young has big power with a lot of swing-and-miss. His 113 MPH max exit velocity and 108 MPH 90th at 19 years old are unbelievable. You can slap an easy 65 or 70 grade power tool on him. Meanwhile, his 44% strikeout rate and 62% zone contact rate are in the 5th percentile and give him a bleak outlook. Given how much effort is involved in Young’s swing and how many moving parts there are, I think some swing adjustments are likely to be made to add some more control to his swing, which would be beneficial even if it sacrifices some power. He’s playing mostly shortstop so far as a solid athlete with a rocket arm. He’s raw defensively, but projects well at third base. Huge potential here but he won’t sniff the majors, or even the upper minors, until we see significant hit tool improvements.

22. UTIL Ben Ross (AAA)

I continue to warm up on Ben Ross, who has really found success with his bat in 2026 and can be a rock solid bench piece for the Twins. He has a fringy hit tool and limited power, but elite swing decisions have allowed Ross to put together good at-bats and make the most of his limited offensive talent. He won’t be a good major league hitter, but if he can hit just a little bit, then he will stick on a roster as a good runner and plus utility defender. He has played all over the infield and outfield this year, possessing the arm, range, and instincts to provide value wherever the team needs him. Ross makes a lot of sense to be a September call-up.

23. 2B/SS Kyle DeBarge (AA)

It’s been a tough season for Kyle DeBarge, but he trended in the right direction in July, running into more contact and producing some functional power. He’s a smaller right-handed hitter with good legs and a defense-first profile. The strikeout numbers have elevated this year, but there is hope for an average hit tool, which we have seen more this summer. He is a patient hitter with below-average raw power, but he hits the ball hard consistently and has a good feel for pulling fly balls. He has the defensive actions to be an excellent middle infielder. While his arm may not be good enough to stick at short, he could provide value as a backup shortstop who spends more time at second. A good runner who stole 66 bags in 2025 and will be a threat to steal. There is hope that the bat can provide respectable production, and if so, DeBarge will be a big league middle infielder for a long time.

24. C/1B Enrique Jimenez (A+)

After a significant hamstring strain suffered on July 24th, Enrique Jimenez is likely done for the season. He has played just 40 games and saw some elevated whiff rates when me moved up to High-A, but I’m very intrigued by the switch-hitting bat. He gets a lot of elevation in his swing, which contributed to the fringy hit tool. He has a good chance for at least average power production, running exit velocities up to 107 MPH with a great feel for pulling fly balls. He also has a very patient and mature approach, maintaining low chase rates while being fairly aggressive in the strike zone. He has limited movement skills behind the dish and an average arm, but is showing good development and projects to at least be passable there. It’s early for Jimenez and injuries really slowed him down this year, but I like his potential as a quality backup catcher.

25. RHP Marco Raya (MLB)

After getting into a groove for a couple months, Marco Raya hit the IL in early July with a minor shoulder injury and has once again been struggling with walks and homers in Triple-A since returning. His fastball sits mid 90s with a little cut, but is a deadzone pitch that continues to be hit hard. He tosses a curveball and sweeper in the mid 80s, both generating a ton of whiff with sharp break and elite spin rates but have been barreled at a high rate. His power changeup around 90s has remained an effective pitch as well with great depth. He throws it almost strictly to lefties and locates it well away from them, generating lots of whiff and weak contact. Raya has the stuff of a high leverage bullpen arm, but needs to find more consistency in his command.

26. RHP Alejandro Hidalgo (AAA)

Alejandro Hidalgo has been ravaged by home runs this year, but an average barrel rate and some really impressive statcast data suggest he has been remarkably unlucky. Hidalgo works a nice three pitch mix. His fastball sits 95-97 with good ride, missing bats at the top of the zone. His cutter in the upper 80s is an above-average pitch, running strong chase and whiff rates. His changeup has been the prize this year. It doesn’t have particularly impressive shape, but in the mid 80s, the arm action and velo separation make it extremely difficult for hitters to wait back on. Hidalgo has dropped his walk rate throughout the year and is showing encouraging signs in the command department. It has been a wild ride of a minor league career, but he is still just 23 years old and has developed nicely this year. If he doesn’t debut this fall, the Twins will have an interesting decision to make with Hidalgo, who is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and likely to get some looks from other teams.

27. RHP Matt Barr (A)

The start of Matt Barr’s pro career has been a roller coaster ride as he gets back into sync after a stress fracture in his arm during spring training. It’s a high-effort delivery with command concerns. His fastball sits in the 93-95 range with deadzone tendancies, but can give hitters some tough angles with his wide release point. He doesn’t throw a changeup, but has a trio of nasty high-spin breaking balls. The best is a two-plane slider in the mid 80s that almost is more of a sweeper. The pitch gets 2,800 RPMs and is already looking unhittable in Single-A. His cutter in the upper 80s looks like a plus pitch, getting sharp sweep with elite spin rates. He mixes in a curveball around 80 that looks like a fine fourth pitch. The 2 year JuCo product is very young with plenty of time to develop. The lack of a changeup along with command concerns make Barr a probable reliever, but with how good the breaking balls are, he might be able to make it work if we see fastball improvements. He will be a very fun player to watch develop over the next few years.

28. OF Luis Fragoza (A)

Luis Fragoza came out of nowhere in year 3, reaching Single-A in late May and taking off. He is a solid athlete at 6’1”, playing across the outfield but also seeing time as a corner infielder (and looking pretty good). The righty is flashing above-average raw power and has hit 11 homers in 61 games this year. Lackluster swing decisions are a concern and have led to a walk rate around 6% with a 27% strikeout rate. There are hit tool questions, but I think he has a pretty smooth operation in his swing, and his 82% zone contact this season has climbed even higher throughout the summer. He may not have the arm of a good third baseman, but would fit well in a corner outfield spot. It’s very early for Fragoza, but the production and raw talent as a teenager is impossible to ignore.

29. OF/1B Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB)

Gabriel Gonzalez has settled in nicely at first base, but it puts his plus arm to minimal use and he likely won’t hit enough to provide positive value at the position. His contact rates looked good throughout July, but the lack of quality contact and chase-heavy approach remain detrimental to his outlook. If he can really lean into the hit tool or find some playable power, there could be a solid major league bat, but with limited speed and defense, nothing about his profile is a guaranteed major league asset right now.

30. RHP Eli Jones (AA)

This is Eli Jones’ first appearance on my top 40, and he has skyrocketed into the No. 30 spot despite not pitching since May due to injury. Jones has slipped my mind this season, but I’m warming up to the idea of him as one of the Twins’ top true starting pitching prospects. He is a 6’1” righty with a deep repertoire and heavy strike-throwing. He posted a 4.39 ERA and 3.50 FIP on good volume this spring before the injury. He leads with a sinker, which has pushed more consistently into the mid 90s and generates a ton of ground contact. The 4-seamer is mixed in as well and can generate some whiff at the top of the zone. Jones has a trio of average breaking balls with distinct shapes and velocities, also having a lot of success against lefties with his mid 80s changeup. Not a flashy prospect, but a pitchability arm with decent stuff and excellent strike-throwing. Eli Jones is destined for the back end of a major league rotation if he can continue on this upward trajectory.

31. OF Kala’i Rosario (AAA)

Kala’i Rosario dominated Double-A all summer last year after a rough month of April, but the whiff rates have shot back up this season as he has not been able to build on the 2025 success. Rosario possesses plus raw power from the right side of the plate with an extremely patient approach, but the hit tool creates significant doubt that he will be able to find major league success as a hitter. He has worked to improve as a runner, shattering his career high in steals with 32 last season and is a solid athlete. His good arm and decent range give me hope that he can be an average corner outfielder. There is some real slugging potential in a corner outfield spot if things go Rosario’s way, but the hit tool continues to be a limitation.

32. RHP Reed Moring (A+)

The 2025 15th round pick was called up to Cedar Rapids in July after a strong Single-A showing where he posted a 2.60 ERA and 3.39 FIP over 52 innings. His fastball sits low 90s with good ride, a pitch that could really do some damage if Moring can work it into the mid 90s. He has a big league slider, getting some good bite in the mid 80s, but has caught far too much of the strike zone with it this year, leading to some hard contact. The changeup kills spin and generates great vertical separation from the fastball. It will be a huge pitch for him against lefties as he gets more comfortable using it. A slower 12-6 curve is mixed in as well and has been effective. Moring has been a strike-thrower to a fault this year, but his stuff has mid-rotation potential if he can improve his command and work around the edges more effectively. Really hopeful for this late-round selection one year in.

33. RHP Tommy LaPour (DRAFT)

The Twins 4th round draft pick is 6’4” with a strong build and a heavy fastball. The heater sits 92-96 with good carry and has flashed up to 100. His best secondary is the changeup, which gets excellent vertical separation in the upper 80s. The slider is fringy and is a questionable third pitch. LaPour commanded the arsenal well in 2025, but lost it a bit this year after an elbow injury cost him most of the spring. There is some starter potential here, but we are more likely looking at a reliever who’s plus potential fastball gives him a high floor. Development of a reliable breaking ball will be key.

34. RHP Steele Murdock (DRAFT)

The Twins drafted Steele Murdock at the top of the 5th round in July, and there is some intriguing talent in this right-handed arm. He struggled with walks at UCSD but posted 12.7 K/9 this year, backed by a plus slider in the low 80s. Spin rates sit in the 2,500 range with sharp bite, generating excellent whiff rates. He leads with a unique cut fastball that gets good carry in the low-to-mid 90s and has flashed up to 99 MPH. Occasionally throws a mid 70s curveball, but it’s mainly a two-pitch mix. He will need to broaden the repertoire and throw more strikes if he wants to stick as a starter, but the reliever profile is already looking very strong. For what it’s worth, he dominated the Cape last summer as a closer, posting a 2.16 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

35. OF Teilon Serrano (FCL)

Big raw tools from lefty outfielder Teilon Serrano at just 18 years old, and they have been accompanied by real production in two years of rookie ball. Extremely patient hitter with hit tool concerns, finishing with a 27.3% walk rate and 30.4% strikeout rate in the FCL this season. He has plus power potential, already registering exit velocities north of 109 MPH. He’s a good athlete who has split time between all three outfield spots. A long way out, but there is value in an athletic outfielder with a high-upside bat.

36. OF Yovanny Duran (A)

The 18-year-old switch-hitting outfielder was just promoted after dominating the FCL to the tune of a 146 wRC+ while stealing 36 bags in 52 games. He’s 5’11” with a thin frame and it’s unclear how much raw power there is to tap into, but it’s possible that we could see him develop average pop as he matures. A patient hitter with hope for an average hit tool. Duran has primarily been a center fielder and may have the range to stick there. Not as toolsy as Serrano, but a well-rounded player who is already showing elite production at a very young age.

37. RHP Santiago Castellanos (FCL)

Patience is a virtue with Santiago Castellanos, who dominated the DSL at 16 years old and is one of the more well-rounded international pitchers we have seen come through the Twins system in recent years. His 3 pitch mix is led by a 92-95 MPH fastball with some lively riding action at the top of the zone. It has plus potential as a heater that has ran up to 97 in his teenage years. The slider flashes good bite in the mid 80s while the changeup already has great feel with wicked fade. Its an above-average arsenal across the board that Castellanos throws for a lot of strikes. He is freshly 18 and looks like a really intriguing arm that will hopefully infiltrate full-season ball at some point next season.

38. RHP Thomas Burns (DRAFT)

Thomas Burns is a really fun pick by the Twins in the 8th round. Burns worked strictly as a reliever at Texas this past spring and tallied a ridiculous 43 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. He is 6’3” with a very high-effort delivery that produced some nasty stuff. The fastball is 70 grade, sitting upper 90s with elite carry, overpowering hitters and generating a 40% whiff rate. He tosses a cutter in the upper 80s with above-average traits but a lack of command. The changeup has flashed good specs, but has no feel. Burns already has big league stuff and could make his major league debut as early as next year. His lack of command gives some reason for concern, but the upside out of the bullpen is awesome.

39. OF Jayson Bass (A+)

At 20 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder has turned into a big slugger in the lower levels this season. Jayson Bass generates great bat speed and has ran exit velocities over 110 MPH this season with consistent hard contact and a good feel for making quality contact in the air. His 79% zone contact rate creates hit tool concerns and his aggressive, chase-heavy approach doesn’t help either. The power will have to carry his offensive profile and it’s looking like it might be able to. Bass runs fairly well, stealing 22 bags so far this season. He has played primarily right field where his good arm and solid range fit nicely, but he has also spent some time at first base. Like Fragoza, Jayson Bass wasn’t really on my radar until he started producing in Single-A, but he is here now and looking like a high-upside bat.

40. LHP Garrett Horn (A+)

Garrett Horn was drafted in the 6th round by the Rangers in 2024 and came over in exchange for Danny Coulombe at last year’s trade deadline. The 6’2” lefty has only thrown 16 innings this year due to some shoulder issues, but he is one of the most intriguing lefty arms in the system. The fastball is borderline plus, sitting 92-95 with good extension and elite carry in 3-4 innings starts. Horn pairs it with a good slider in the low 80s that has been a devastating pitch against lefties, and he can morph it into a cutter in the upper 80s. He has struggled with walks since joining the Twins’ org. It is firmly a reliever profile, but one that has a chance to be highly productive in that role. After an injury-riddled season, it may be time to move Garrett Horn to a bullpen role, where he could climb through the minors and debut as soon as 2027.

The Mets conclude a three-game series against the Guardians in Cleveland on Wednesday afternoon at 1:10 on SNY.

Mets Notes

• Carson Benge has a .789 OPS in 170 plate appearances dating back to June 18
• Devin Williams has a 2.61 ERA (2.66 FIP) in 20.2 innings over his last 21 appearances dating back to May 27
• Nolan McLean has a 1.49 ERA in 36.1 innings over his last six starts

Today's Lineups

Up until July 20th, Yankees trade acquisition Ryan Weathers was sporting a disappointing 4.40 ERA in 102.1 innings. His four-seam fastball was getting battered, and he was allowing too many home runs to have a chance at sustained success. Baseball, however, is a game of adjustments. The talented left-hander has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and 18.2 frames, with 13 hits, no homers, five walks, and 17 punchouts. He seems like a completely different pitcher, much less vulnerable, and has dropped his season ERA to 3.79 over that span.

What changed? Well, if you have a fastball that has surrendered a .628 xSLG (expected slugging percentage) and a .408 xwOBA, you just don’t throw it very often, as our own Peter Brody suggested a few weeks ago. The writer prescribed more sinkers and fewer four-seamers as the recipe for success. Let’s see Weathers’ pitch mix in his last start on Tuesday, when he held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless for six frames, conceding just four hits and a walk while fanning six:

Changeup: 30 percent

Sinker: 25 percent

Sweeper: 24 percent

Slider: 14 percent

Four-seam fastball: 8 percent

That’s right, Weathers went from throwing 45.3 percent four-seamers last year (his most frequently used offering in his last season with the Marlins) to just eight percent in his most recent outing with the Yankees. For reference, he threw nine percent heaters on July 30th and 10 percent on the 25th. You can easily see the trend.

New York Daily News reporter Gary Phillips asked Weathers why he is throwing fewer four-seamers, and his response left us with an all-time quote: “The other pitches stay in the ballpark.” Sometimes, the best way to grow is not necessarily trying to improve a pitch, but instead, getting to know one’s limitations and being open to embracing change. And that’s precisely what Weathers is doing.

Yes, he can throw the ball very hard on his day, but sheer velocity is far from the only factor behind a solid fastball these days. Deception, ride, command… There are just so many variables, and it’s clear that the pitch wasn’t cutting it for Weathers.

The red line in this graphic indicates Weathers’ four-seamer usage through the years, including the 2026 campaign. It’s easy to see how it tumbles this season:

You can expect the trend to continue, especially because the secondary pitches are working. Sometimes, you will see Weathers featuring more changeups, and other times, it will be his sinker or his sweeper. It will depend on his feel for his repertoire that day, and especially on the foe: certain teams are more susceptible to changeups, others suffer more with sweepers.

It needs to be pointed out, however, that Weathers’ changeup is looking better than ever, and so is his slider. Both pitches had a 40 percent whiff rate in his last start, and with this combo working, he can attack lefties and righties with confidence, as he did on Tuesday:

It will be very interesting to see if this extreme no-fastball approach (well, no four-seamers, at least) can be sustainable over time and if it can lead to a full-fledged breakout in the second half. It’s important to note, however, that a few heaters per start can effectively help him keep hitters honest. On Tuesday, Weathers threw seven of them, earning a whiff (on two swings) and two called strikes for a solid 43 percent CSW%.

Weathers is clearly a candidate to be moved to the relief duties when everybody is healthy in the Yankees’ staff. He would be open to such a move, saying that his job is “when Boonie hands me the ball, that’s when I’m supposed to go pitch. When he takes it out of my hand, that’s when I’m done pitching.” However, if he keeps giving the Bombers six or seven scoreless frames every five days, perhaps they will have to reconsider.

Meet the Mets

The Mets scored the tying run in the ninth to force extras and then won it in the tenth. Christian Scott was solid in his start, and both Jefry Yan and Chayce McDermott threw scoreless innings in their Mets debut. Jorge Polanco hit his first home run since his return from the IL to help the team win its series against the Guardians.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Daily News, LoHud, MLB.com, NY Post

It’s been a long road to the majors for Yan, but he finally was given an opportunity after the Mets sell-off at the deadline.

Yan did his famous strikeout celebration after he picked up his first two major league strikeouts.

Freddy Peralta reportedly helped Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor come to a truce, but Soto denies that such a meeting ever took place.

Jonah Tong gave up five solo home runs in his unfortunate start with Syracuse.

The Mets held onto Luis Robert Jr., and while he most likely won’t be on the roster next year, he will play every day with Soto on the IL.

Around the National League East

The Braves defeated the Marlins 4-2 to win their seventh in a row backed by a strong performance by Bryce Elder.

The Marlins traded prospect Jacob Berry to the Royals in exchange for cash considerations.

The Phillies fell 10-4 to the Nationals in extra innings with Brooks Raley giving up the game-tying home run in the seventh.

Before the game,the Nationals DFA’d righty Zack Littell, who was brought in during the offseason.

Around Major League Baseball

It was a very busy trade deadline with some surprising teams selling despite being in the playoff race.

Yankeers slugger Aaron Judge is confident he will return this season from his fractured rib after getting cleared to do light activities.

The Pirates released Marcell Ozuna after he hit just .203 this season.

The Reds placed Hunter Greene on the IL with right elbow soreness after he made just five starts coming off his last IL stint.

Garrett Crochet is open to pitching out of the bullpen for the Red Sox once he returns from the IL next month.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1975 the Mets fired Yogi Berra as team skipper.

Baseball America updated its top 100 prospects now that the trade deadline has passed. The Dodgers have six prospects in the top 100, and that’s without No. 39 Zyhir Hope, now with the Detroit Tigers courtesy of the Tarik Skubal trade.

Of note in the six Dodgers prospects in the BA top 100 are Christian Zazueta, who launched up to 24th overall after not named to any top-100 lists in the offseason, plus Zach Root and Charles Davalan, the Dodgers’ first two draft picks in 2025 out of Arkansas, picked 40th and 41st overall.

Dodgers in Baseball America updated top 100 prospects

• 4th: Josue De Paula OF
• 16th: Eduardo Quintero OF
• 19th: Mike Sirota OF
• 24th: Christian Zazueta RHP
• 29th: Emil Morales SS
• 67th: Zach Root LHP
• 89th: Charles Davalan OF

Since getting promoted to Double-A Tulsa in June, Zazueta has allowed six home runs with a 4.13 ERA in six starts, but he also had an eye-popping 37.4-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate in Double-A and 31.5 percent on the season that ranks third among all minor league pitchers with at least 50 innings this season.

“Even after a quick rise in our last update, Zazueta is still on a rocket to the top,” wrote Josh Norris at Baseball America on Wednesday. “The righthander hasn’t missed a beat since moving from High-A to Double-A, where he’s struck out 39 and walked just two over his first 24 innings.”

Davalan is notable as he thrives in High-A Great Lakes, hitting .292/.410/.525 with a 140 wRC+ on the season, including an eye-popping .370/.457/.790 with a 203 wRC+, eight home runs and 16 extra-base hits in 20 games in July.

“Over the course of the month, Davalan showed all of his tools, hitting for a high average, walking at a high rate and hitting for power,” Geoff Pontes wrote last week at Baseball America. “As of July 30, Davalan is in the midst of a streak of eight games in which he’s had multiple hits. He’s showing signs of a potential 60-plus-grade hit tool, even if he’s stuck at his current level due to the outrageous outfield talent in Tulsa.”

That multi-hit streak for Davalan got to nine games on Saturday.

On Wednesday, Davalan was named Midwest League player of the month for July.

Zion Rose, the Royals 1st round pick last month, debuted last night in Quad Cities, the Royals High-A affiliate, he went 0-5 with a pair of strikeouts.

Michael Lombardi (4.2 IP) and Jhon Reyes (2.1 IP) threw a combined no-hitter in the second game of the Columbia Fireflies doubleheader last night, the Royals Low-A affiliate.

Michael Massey played hero last night with his go-ahead homer in Royals 2-1 win over Minnesota, making up for a fielding blunder earlier in the game.

Kansas City Royals second baseman Michael Massey made an uncharacteristic defensive blunder Wednesday night. In the fourth inning, Massey got caught in between while fielding a groundball from Twins outfielder Kody Clemens. As Twins designated hitter Josh Bell, who walked to begin the frame, barreled toward second base, Massey attempted to tag him in the basepaths.

Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star wrote about some seemingly unbreakable Royals records.

Noah Cameron was once again unhittable last night, throwing 8 innings of one-run ball against the Twins.

This version of Noah Cameron is what he and the Royals have wanted to see all year, what they hope to see the rest of this season – and what they need to see next season. Cameron tossed eight innings of one-run ball in the Royals’ 2-1 win over the Twins on Wednesday night, matching his career high in innings that he set last week against this same Twins team and matching his career high in strikeouts (nine) that he set on July 11 against the Orioles.

It also marked back-to-back starts of eight innings for Cameron and just one earned run in his last 23 innings since July 24.

Michael Wacha didn’t get traded on Monday, here is what Anne Rogers wrote about it.

Even though it would have taken an offer that “wowed us and knocked our socks off,” for Wacha, as general manager J.J. Picollo put it, it can still be unnerving for a player to see their name in trade rumors. There’s uncertainty that this time of year can bring on and off the field with so many players on the move.

“I never really let myself dive into those rumors too much,” Wacha said. “It just feels good to still be here in Kansas City. We’ve grown to love this city, and we feel like it’s where we need to be. Extremely excited to still be here with these guys. I feel like we still have a great group of guys in here that know how to compete and know how to play baseball at a high level. That’s what I’m expecting moving forward.”

Wacha said he talked with Picollo “a little bit” leading up to the Deadline, with Picollo letting him know of any developments. But the Royals were as transparent with Wacha as they were with other teams and publicly: It was going to take a lot for them to move on from the starter. They were looking for Major League talent in return, and it was a high enough bar that conversations didn’t move forward much, if at all.

The Red Sox and Sonny Gray are unstoppable currently, as Gray wins 14th decision, Red Sox win 7th straight

Mets reliever Jefry Yan is pure entertainment on the mound

Former Tigers starter, Casey Mize had a tough debut in San Diego

Miles Mikolas came through in the clutch at the plate ahead of scheduled Thursday start for the Nationals

Aaron Judge makes progress to return

For what it’s worth, Lane Thomas is 0-4 since being traded by the Royals to the Braves.

Today’s song of the day is Seven Nation Army by the White Stripes

Since the Colorado Rockies new front office took the reins of the organization, I have assumed they have been operating with an eye towards building a contention window starting in 2029 at the absolute earliest.

However, their actions at the trade deadline earlier this week seem incongruous with that assumption.

It wasn’t until reading the following from Paul DePodesta’s post trade deadline comments that a possible explanation started to crystalize: “We had a set price in mind of what it would take to acquire any of our players. We think we got a lot of good players here. We think we have the foundation of something that has a chance to be pretty good.”

It would seem that the front office believes the players they have in house are better than the outside consensus and that the potential for the foundation of a competitive club is already in place. Their actions lend credence to this assertion about what their thinking is.

The only impending free agent they traded this week was Antonio Senzatela. All four starting pitchers on expiring contracts were retained. I don’t think we can read too much into this given the specifics of those starting pitchers.

• Kyle Freeland and Michael Lorenzen both have an ERA of nearly seven.
• Jose Quintana has been injured for most of the season.
• Tomoyuki Sugano has solid surface level production, but his underlying metrics continue to look rough.

Given that, it’s not shocking that none of these pitchers attracted a return worth pursuing even for a fully rebuilding club.

What didn’t make sense if the team were in full sell mode was this:

• Keeping all three players set to be a free agent after next season (Mickey Moniak, Willi Castro, & Jimmy Herget).
• Keeping three corner outfielders aged 28 or older (Moniak, Jake McCarthy, and Troy Johnston) despite having another four potentially interesting players at Triple-A for those positions (Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP), Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP), Sterlin Thompson (No. 13 PuRP), and Jordan Beck).
• Extending Moniak for only a single extra season.

To top it off, the only players other than Senzatela that the Rockies did move were under team control for three or more seasons and coming off poor recent play. Instead of getting what they could for a year-and-a-half of Moniak, they sold low on three-and-a-half years of Brenton Doyle. Instead of getting what they could for a year-and-a-half of Herget, they instead found teams interested in tinkering with the raw upside of three-plus years of Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik.

The Rockies didn’t operate like a team attempting to maximize total talent in the organization by punting on the next couple seasons. Instead, they operated as if they see a path to a competitive window opening within the two seasons that they have Moniak and McCarthy under contract.

The immediate reaction to that possibility is, instinctively, incredulity.

Whether or not that initial reaction is warranted, or purely ingrained by almost a decade of the franchise seeming directionless, is up for debate. It’s worth considering what it would take for this team to be plausibly fighting for a wildcard spot before McCarthy and Moniak are set to become free agents after 2028.

In his post-trade deadline presser, DePodesta said, “In June, we were a very good offensive club, one of the best in baseball. I think the best maybe offensive club we’ve had here in a month in a long period of time. So we do feel like it’s coming together,” which isn’t too much of an exaggeration. The lineup was fifth in runs scored June and tenth in July. There are a number of encouraging signs offensively on the big league club and some more percolating in the high minors.

It is possible to squint and see a lineup capable of competing for a third wild card over the next couple seasons if things break right.

The pitching, on the other hand, is another story entirely.

Since I wrote about the potential 2027 rotation in mid-June, a number of factors have trended in a positive direction for Rockies pitching:

• Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP) has immediately looked like a potential mid-rotation starter in the majors.
• The draft netted the Rockies a couple of the higher-ceiling arms in the organization with Logan Reddeman and Tyler Putnam.
• The Doyle trade brought back a nearly major-league-ready starter in Mason Adams.
• A handful of potential back-of-the-rotation-type prospects (Jack Mahoney, Konnor Eaton (No. 28 PuRP), and Eiberson Castellano) have continued to put up strong numbers in the high minors.

It’s possible that the Rockies will have enough in-house options available to field a full starting rotation over the next two seasons barring injuries. That rotation would have an incredibly low ceiling, but you can squint and see a baseline of at least enough potential innings to muddle through.

Even given the most optimistic view of the rotation, however, it’s hard to envision a version that is genuinely able to be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of either 2027 or 2028 using only in-house options. If the team wants to win before players like Moniak and McCarthy are gone, they will need to invest a lot of money into luring impact free agents to Colorado within the next year and a half.

The idea of that happening seems far fetched given the Rockies recent track record but, when considering their payroll commitments beyond this year, it’s not actually that unthinkable.

Kris Bryant is the only player the Rockies have slated to make more than $8.5 million next year. They only have four guaranteed major-league deals for players who are beyond their arbitration years. Their total estimated payroll in 2027, other than arbitration-eligible players, is just $71 million. This is a club that has run a payroll between $119 and $170 million dollars every season this decade.

They will have a significant amount of money to spend this offseason and/or the next.

Given the way the Rockies approached the deadline and the comments about thinking that the foundation of the lineup is pretty good, it suddenly seems reasonable to assume that the DePodesta-led front office intends to spend aggressively much sooner than previously expected.

Obviously, this is all muddled further by the upcoming CBA negotiations. Depending on how things shake out with the next contract between the league and the players union, the economic landscape could become radically different than it currently looks.

With Rockies owner Dick Monfort a key figure on the league’s side of negotiations, however, it is entirely conceivable that he would want to make a show of investing into the team’s payroll after a deal is struck. Essentially that exact thing happened after the lockout in 2022 when the Rockies shockingly splurged on Bryant’s seven-year deal.

If a similar pattern unfolds this go around, let’s hope that the current front office is able to use the financial flexibility afforded to them much more effectively than the previous one. The last time a Rockies front office thought to spend their way out of a questionable major league roster the return was three straight 100-loss seasons.

In Rockies Land, we have a knee-jerk reaction that assumes the team is making mistakes. In fairness, the team earned that reaction but it’s worth remembering that the past doesn’t always need to be the future.

The Rockies not acting like a fully rebuilding team right now seems out of step with how many “smart” teams have approached situations like this… but not every good team tanked in order to build their talent pipeline.

Before the Los Angeles Dodgers current dynasty started, they threw money at the major league roster while also building the developmental system underneath it. It’s not impossible to do both at once. It’s just much more difficult. It requires either a ruthless diligence in trading every player at the peak of their value like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers, or a willingness to spend money to a degree that those teams can’t or simply won’t.

In the comments of yesterday’s Rockpile, OhioRockie alluded to “building the plane while flying it.” In effect, that’s exactly what I think DePodesta and Byrnes are trying to do: rebuild the farm system for long-term sustainability while simultaneously trying to put together a wildcard-capable roster for the short-term. If the Rockies are willing to commit to pumping money into both projects, they could accomplish both with smart investments.

If they are going to try that, though, they need to commit to it fully despite the cost and difficulty. Attempting to go down that road and then balking at the combined cost of players and infrastructure would cause them to fall back into the familiar pattern of misguided attempts to paper over fundamentally bad rosters while also stunting the potential growth of the farm system.

On the Farm

Triple-A:Albuquerque Isotopes 7, Sugar Land Space Cowboys 6

This was a game of debuts!

After pitching to a 1.99 ERA over 68 innings at Double-A, Jack Mahoney took the mound for the Isotopes for the first time since being promoted to Triple-A. His first start was a success as he got through five PCL innings while only allowing two runs both of which came on as a result of a fourth inning home run from Space Cowboy CJ Alexander. The same can not be said for Mark Manfredi’s debut for the team after having been traded for Senzatela earlier in the week. Manfredi came in to pitch the eighth inning but did not manage to finish it on his own after allowing the Sugar Lands final four runs of the game.

At the plate Connor Norby made his debut for the team after coming over in the Vodnik trade on Monday. Norby made a great first impression on the Isotopes with a walk in the first and then a home run in the third. Not to be outdone by someone who just arrived, Veen (No. 9 PuRP) added a double and home run of his own bringing his season totals to 32 and 21 respectively. Overall the Isotopes combined for 11 hits, six of them for extra bases, and three walks to plate seven runs en route to their 56th victory.

Double-A:Binghamton Rumble Ponies 3, Hartford Yard Goats 1

A low scoring affair in Binghamton. Sam Weatherly acted as the opener and managed to get through two innings on 35 pitches. He allowed all three runs that the Rumble Ponies would score before giving way to Cade Denton who pitched five scoreless innings.

The real story was Binghamton starter R.J. Gordon mowing down Yard Goats. Gordon collected ten strikouts in just six innings of work and only allowed a single run, via a home run from right fielder Braylen Wimmer. Other than that home run the Yard Goats bats were largely silent collecting a total of four hits and a single walk.

High-A:Eugene Emeralds 5, Spokane Indians 1

Angel Jimenez’s struggled again in his third start at High-A. He threw 75 pitches and allowed three home runs in just four innings before being pulled. The trio of relievers that came in after Jimenez managed to keep the game relatively close as the only other run scored was a solo shot allowed by Seth Clausen. The solid relief pitching was not enough to make up for a dearth of offense as the team scattered only three hits, one of which was a double from Tanner Thach, and scored only a single run.

Low-A:Fresno Grizzlies 5, Visalia Rawhide 1

Brady Parker kept the Rawhide at bay by tossing six innings of one run ball while striking out five. This was more than enough leeway for the Grizzlies lineup to hit their way to victory. The lineup as a whole combined for ten hits and four walks though only Juan Martinez’ fourth inning triple went for extra bases. No one exemplified this death by a thousand cuts style offense more than Ashly Andujar (No. 20 PuRP) who led off and collected four hits and a pair of RBI.

After staying put at deadline, Moniak signs 2-year extension with Rockies | MLB.com

In case you hadn’t had a chance to look at the particulars of the Moniak extension, Thomas Harding has you covered.

TA: The new Rockies, same as the old rockies | Baseball Prospectus ($)

Mario Delgado Genzor digs through the Rockies trade deadline transactions as a whole and tries, as I just did, to make sense of what the plan moving forward is. It’s absolutely worth reading even if you’ve seen my thoughts above as it includes much more in-depth takes on each of the individual transactions.

McCarthy’s Charlie vibes have Rox thinking they found their leadoff answer | MLB.com

Now that the trade deadline is over it’s time to actually move on to talking about the actual baseball on the field. Here’s another piece from Thomas Harding digging into lineup construction and what McCarthy brings to the leadoff spot.

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Triple-A: Buffalo Bisons (Blue Jays) 7, Norfolk Tides 6

Oof. This one was a heartbreaker for the Tides, who carried a four-run lead into the bottom of the ninth and then coughed up five for a walkoff loss. Poor Yaqui Rivera was charged with all five runs, giving up four singles, a double, and two walks while recording just two outs. The game ended when Cam Sanders uncorked a wild pitch with the bases loaded.

Long before that, starter Nestor German gutted through 5.2 innings, putting nine runners on base but limiting the Bisons to two runs. Newly acquired reliever Codi Heuer pitched a perfect inning in his organizational debut, and lefty Nick Raquet retired all four batters he faced.

The Tides were pretty productive offensively. Reed Trimble continued to impress with a hit, two walks, and two RBIs. Payton Eeles had a pair of hits and even Sam Huff got in on the action, reaching base thrice. Unfortunately not joining the fun was Enrique Bradfield Jr., who went 0-for-5 to drop his OPS to .663. He also committed a throwing error.

Box score

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 8, Harrisburg Senators (Nationals) 1 — Game 1

In the opener of a doubleheader, the Baysox busted out the bats early and often, putting up crooked numbers in the first, third, and fourth innings. The top of the lineup did the bulk of the damage. Brandon Butterworth, Wehiwa Aloy, and Anderson De Los Santos were a combined 5-for-9 with all eight RBIs. What’s more, all of them hit home runs — and Aloy hit two. Those were his first two dingers at the Double-A level. He’s pretty good!

With ample run support, starter Sebastian Gongora cruised to victory, holding Harrisburg to one run in five innings. Of note, Joe Glassey, who just pitched for the Baysox four days earlier, pitched against them in this game. (The O’s traded him to the Nationals on Monday for Christian Franklin.) He worked a scoreless inning against his former teammates.

Box score

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 2, Harrisburg Senators 1 — Game 2

In a makeup of a June rainout, Chesapeake completed the doubleheader sweep in the nightcap. The Baysox had just three extra-base hits but strung them all together in the third inning, with doubles by Frederick Bencosme, Tavian Josenberger, and Aron Estrada plating their only two runs of the game. Aloy was 0-for-1 but walked twice.

The Chesapeake pitching staff made the slim lead stand up. Christian Heberholz worked five scoreless innings, and after Keagan Gillies gave up a solo homer in the sixth, Brock Moore worked a scoreless seventh for the save in his organizational debut. The O’s acquired Moore from the Mariners as part of the Taylor Ward trade.

Box score

High-A: Frederick Keys 10, Jersey Shore BlueClaws (Phillies) 9

Frederick let a six-run advantage slip away in the seventh, but rallied back to score the go-ahead run in the ninth. All’s well that ends well. The Keys could’ve given themselves a lot more breathing room if they hadn’t committed four errors and a passed ball in the game, which led to a staggering seven unearned runs.

Third baseman Randal Diaz committed two of those errors, but he also went 3-for-4 at the plate and drove in five runs, so I suppose he can be forgiven. Center fielder Enddy Azocar, part of the Adley Rutschman trade — a phrase that I still can’t get used to typing — went 2-for-5. Azocar has five hits in his first two games in the O’s organization, so he’s made a good first impression. The Keys also wreaked havoc on the basepaths with seven stolen bases.

Boston Bateman, who left his previous start with right hip flexor discomfort, was limited to two innings in his return. He certainly made the most of them, striking out six of the seven batters he faced. Christian Rodriguez handled the next four and was tagged for six runs, but only two earned. Todd Kniebbe struck out the side in the ninth for the save.

Box score

Low-A: Fredericksburg Nationals 5, Delmarva Shorebirds 4 — 10 inn.

You know what’s weirder than losing on a walkoff wild pitch, like the Tides did? Well, how about losing on a walkoff balk? That’s exactly what happened to the Shorebirds in the 10th inning in Fredericksburg. With runners at the corners, Zac Lampton was charged with a balk to bring the winning run home. You can’t just be up there and just doin’ a balk like that.

It was a well-balanced offensive attack for the Shorebirds, as eight of the nine batters had at least one hit. Leadoff man Jaiden Lo Re had a particularly nice night, doubling twice, and Jordan Sanchez homered. On the mound, starter Andrew Herbert gave up three runs in five frames, and long reliever Adrian Heredia worked four innings of one-run ball.

Box score

Thursday’s scheduled games:

• Norfolk: at Buffalo, 6:35 PM. Starter: Trey Gibson (2-5, 3.55)
• Chesapeake: vs. Harrisburg, 6:35 PM. Starter: Joseph Dzierwa (2-1, 2.88)
• Frederick: at Jersey Shore, 7:05 PM. Starter: Stephen Still (0-1, 3.38)
• Delmarva: at Fredericksburg, 6:35 PM. Starter: TBD