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The Chicago White Sox will look to even their series with the Houston Astros on Tuesday, Sept. 1.

While Houston is a short home favorite ahead of the 8:10 p.m. first pitch, my top White Sox vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks call for Chicago to win tonight.

Who will win White Sox vs Astros today: White Sox moneyline (50.7%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Chicago White Sox have an advantage on the mound and at the dish.

Chicago starter Sean Burke sports a solid 3.71 xERA and 3.86 xFIP, while Houston Astros righty Ronel Blanco checks in with respective 5.44 and 4.98 marks, in addition to carrying negative pitch values on three of his four offerings.

Additionally, the White Sox enter ranked 13th in wOBA and eighth in ISO against righties, and Chicago is also sixth in xwOBA over the past 14 days. 

So, with Houston ranking last in xwOBA during the same stretch, I am anticipating Burke holding the Astros in check enough for the Chicago bats to pull away tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Houston Astros starter Ronel Blanco has surrendered 23 earned runs across 20 2/3 August innings with Triple-A Sugar Land, while allowing opposing hitters to bat .333.

White Sox vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51.2%)

With Chicago set to put up crooked numbers tonight, this Over only needs Houston to chip in, and the Astros are also in line for continued statistical correction at the plate.

Houston is 11th in hard-hit rate with a 27th-ranked BABIP during the highlighted 14-day stretch, so after scoring six runs Monday, I like the Astros to do enough damage to send this total Over the number.

Plus, the White Sox have played to the Over in 26 of their last 45 away games (+5.20 Units / 11% ROI).

White Sox vs Astros home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (24.2%)

It’s been 12 games since Chicago slugger Munetaka Murakami’s last homer, and he lands in the perfect matchup to snap out of the funk tonight.

Blanco has served up a massive .303 ISO to left-handed hitters, and Murakami’s hit 23 of his 29 bombs against righties while posting an equally mammoth .315 ISO.

MLB betting analyst Josh Inglis also pinpointed White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery as a target to go deep in his MLB home run picks.

White Sox vs Astros market report

Here is how the trading volume is coming in on White Sox vs. Astros tonight at Polymarket:

White Sox vs Astros weather

The retractable roof at Daikin Park will be closed for tonight's game.

White Sox vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: White Sox 52.4% | Astros 52.4%
• Run line: White Sox -1.5 (40.8%) | Astros +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (52.4%)

White Sox vs Astros trend

The Chicago White Sox have won 14 of their last 24 away games (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros.

How to watch White Sox vs Astros and game info

White Sox vs Astros latest injuries

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Now that it is September, MLB teams can expand the roster from 26 to 28. The Royals also have an extra roster spot due to losing reliever John Schreiber to the Yankees on waivers. They filled those three spots by adding outfielder Drew Waters, and right-handed pitchers Easton McGee and Nolan Hoffman.

Waters has spent parts of the last four seasons with the Royals, hitting .234/.300/.369 with 14 home runs in 208 games, worth 0.6 rWAR. The 27-year-old switch-hitter has spent the entire season in Triple-A Omaha, hitting .251/.312/.420 with 12 home runs and 17 steals in 98 games.

McGee was up with the Royals earlier this year after he was acquired from the Brewers. He gave up seven runs in 5.1 innings in four games. He has pitched in parts of four MLB seasons with the Rays, Mariners, and Brewers, with a 4.55 ERA in 31.2 innings. The 28-year-old gave up 19 runs in 14 innings for Omaha.

Hoffman was acquired from the Phillies at the July trade deadline for minor leaguer Manuel Colon. He has made four MLB appearances with the Phillies, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings. In 39 minor league games, the 29-year-old has a 4.81 ERA with 54 strikeouts and 26 walks in 43 innings.

Complicating September callups is a looming work stoppage. Players that are added to the 40-man roster become part of the MLBPA, and if there is a lockout, they could be prohibited from team workout facilities, Arizona Fall League participation, or any game action if there is an extended stoppage. The minor league player’s union has a collective bargaining agreement that runs through next year, so non-40-man roster players can still play through a work stoppage.

After a quick flight, the Braves are back in Washington, DC for one last series against the Nationals this season. 

With RHP Jake Irvin on the mound, Walt Weiss is running yet another novel lineup today. 

Drake Baldwin will catch for AJ Smith-Shawver and bat leadoff. Ronald Acuña Jr.’s performance in the Rockies series was a sight for sore eyes, going 6-for-9 at the plate with some great moments in right field. He’ll try to keep the momentum going in the two-hole. Matt Olson is always where you expect him to be, both at first base and hitting third. 

Where in the world is Carmen Sandiego Mauricio Dubón? Well, today, he’ll be found at second base. He drops down a spot from where he’s been batting cleanup, where Michael Harris II will hit instead. It’s just a day off from the field today for Ozzie Albies, as he’s slotted in at sixth as the designated hitter. Austin Riley will follow. Brewer Hicklen gets the start in left field today and Ha-Seong Kim rounds us out at short and batting ninth. 

The Nationals have been without James Wood since August 4 after suffering a mild left oblique strain. But he’s homering in rehab and may be activated for tomorrow’s finale.

Instead, CJ Abrams will lead off for the Nats, followed by RF Dylan Crews and 3B Brady House. Cleanup hitter Daylen Lile is the reigning NL Player of the Week and had a multi-homer game yesterday versus Miami.

With the expansion of rosters, the Nationals selected the contract of corner infield prospect Yohandy Morales. He will make his MLB debut tonight as the designated hitter in the five-hole. Abimelec Ortiz will play first base and hit sixth. Harry Ford will catch for Jake Irvin and hit seventh, Jorbit Vivas will follow and play second base, and center fielder Jacob Young will hit ninth.

First pitch is at 6:45 pm ET.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rays fans and fans across the country.

If you subscribe to the notion that ownership makes all the difference, better days may be in store for Los Angeles Angels fans as the keys to the team transfer from Arte Moreno to Stan Kroenke.

The Angels are changing owners.

And to see just how far this organization has fallen, you only need witness the outpouring across social media. Reactions hammer home the kind of optimism and hope normally relegated to Opening Day frivolity.

Kroenke's ownership into extends well into the sports landscape as he owns the L.A. Rams, Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rapids, Colorado Mammoth and Arsenal. Can he replicate success in the MLB?

Indeed, this certainly seems like a good day to be an Angels fan.

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers on Tuesday activated catcher Will Smith off the 60-day injured list, ending his three-month stint with neck inflammation. They also activated catcher Dalton Rushing and pitcher Justin Wrobleski from the injured list, and called up infielder Alex Freeland on the first day active roster limits expand from 26 players and 13 pitchers to 28 players and 14 pitchers.

Ben Rortvedt was designated for assignment to make room for Smith on both the 40-man and active rosters. Alek Thomas was optioned to Triple-A, which likely means a lot more center field for Tommy Edman with Andy Pages still out with the broken left hand.

In five rehab games last week with Triple-A Oklahoma City, Smith had four hits in 16 at-bats, including a home run and two doubles, hitting .250/.250/.563. He caught 25 innings behind the plate in four games, and served as designated hitter in another game.

Smith last played for the Dodgers on June 5. In the last 73 games, Los Angeles catchers combined to hit .219/.283/.347 with a 74 wRC+ in 270 plate appearances, and a -0.1 FanGraphs WAR, ranking 25th among 30 MLB teams in wRC+ and 26th in fWAR.

Rortvedt was acquired from the Mets just before the August 3 trade deadline, and started nine of the last 24 games, filling in behind the plate alongside fellow trade re-acquisition Hunter Feduccia for four weeks. Rortvedt had five singles in 27 at-bats with the Dodgers, hitting .185/.185/.185.

He’s out of options, which brings us back to a familiar dance between the Dodgers and Rortvedt. Last November, the Dodgers tried to sneak him through waivers but he was claimed by the Reds, then claimed back by the Dodgers in February, only to be lost again on waivers to the Mets nine days later.

One would imagine Rortvedt if he clears waivers this time would stick around, as the Dodgers are the only team for whom he could play in the postseason for this year, as he was in their organization by September 1.

Rushing is back as an extra left-handed bat at the very least, but it will be interesting to see whether he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties only while he works his way back from a partially torn UCL.

Wrobleski made one rehab appearance with Oklahoma City on Saturday, getting four outs in a planned relief appearance. He allowed one run on three hits with two strikeouts, and threw 34 pitches. He was sidelined for two-plus weeks with left forearm inflammation, having last pitched for the Dodgers on August 15.

Freeland made the opening day roster and played the first five weeks of the season in the majors, then another two months from late May until he was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on July 28.

He’s still the team leader on the season with 66 starts and 500 innings at second base, where Freeland posted five Defensive Runs Saved and three Outs Above Average, providing stability on defense.

A shortstop by trade, Freeland this season in Triple-A started 18 games at third, nine games each at shortstop and second base, plus twice as designated hitter.

Freeland in the majors this year hit .231/309/.313 with a 77 wRC+, but did much better as a left-handed batter, hitting .248/.330/.339 with a 90 wRC+, compared to only four hits in 30 at-bats, including a double and two walks batting right-handed.

With Oklahoma City, Freeland this year hit .259/.357/.430 with a 102 wRC+, and in 27 games since last getting optioned hit .257/.362/.358 with a 92 wRC+.

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All aboard for the full slate ahead!

My MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Philadelphia Phillies.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Tuesday, Sept. 1.

MLB moneyline picks for September 1

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Mets vs Rays	55%
Padres vs Reds	55%
Giants vs Pirates	40%
Blue Jays vs Guardians	62%
Braves vs Nationals	38%
Mariners vs Red Sox	55%
Tigers vs Twins	54%
Marlins vs Royals	50%
Brewers vs Cubs	46%
A's vs Rangers	66%
White Sox vs Astros	50%
Orioles vs Rockies	42%
Yankees vs Angels	36%
Phillies vs Diamondbacks	55%
Cardinals vs Dodgers	36%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-1.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 1

Mets vs Rays: Rays 

Rays win probability: 55%

Mets left-hander Sean Manaea has been getting lit up over his last five outings, allowing a 46% hard-hit rate, 17% barrel rate, and 5.29 xERA.

On the other side, Freddy Peralta has been improving since joining the Rays, posting a solid 3.57 ERA, 3.19 xERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Mets’ offense has been pretty lifeless as of late, and with how bad Manaea has been, I expect the Rays’ bats to come to life this evening.

Padres vs Reds: Padres 

Padres win probability: 55%

It feels odd writing Randy Vasquez has been solid enough to trust this evening, but he has. He owns just a 2.98 xERA over his last five starts while also limiting hard-hit balls and barrels during that stretch.

Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo, on the other hand, has been horrible over his last five starts, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP while allowing a 13% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

The Reds’ bats have come alive as of late, but they are still a very strikeout-heavy team. So, I’m taking the more trustworthy offense and the better arm at the moment.

Padres or nothing.

Giants vs Pirates: Giants 

Giants win probability: 40%

Does Paul Skenes have better numbers over his last few starts? Yes. But the Pirates’ bats are ice cold, while the Giants are heating up at the dish.

Plus, when was the last time Skenes got run support from his offense in a start where he shoved? Never.

Take the dog.

Blue Jays vs Guardians: Guardians 

Guardians win probability: 62%

Have the Blue Jays’ bats come alive over their last six games? Yes. However, when your starter owns a 9.35 ERA, a sub-2.00 WHIP and a near 18% walk rate over his last five starts, how can you trust that?

With Spencer Arrighetti on the mound for Toronto, it has to be the Guardians here.

Braves vs Nationals: Nationals 

Nationals win probability: 38%

Both starters this evening have been struggling — with both posting xERAs over 4.40 in their last three starts — making the underdog a little more enticing, especially with the Nationals swinging a hot bat as of late.

Over its last six games, Washington owns a .783 OPS, .181 ISO and 120 wRC+. With how inconsistent the Braves have been, the dog is the more intriguing look here.

Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox 

Red Sox win probability: 55%

Red Sox or nothing here.

With how poorly Bryan Woo pitches away from Seattle, the Red Sox should be able to take advantage of his flaws early and often.

For the full breakdown, check out my Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions.

Tigers vs Twins: Twins 

Twins win probability: 54%

Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp has faced some speed bumps over his last few starts, but his last three outings have produced some strong underlying metrics pointing toward improvement — including a 3.88 xERA and a 2.04% barrel rate.

The Tigers have been so cold at the plate that this is a Twins-or-nothing spot. Over the last week, Detroit owns a 30 wRC+, a .088 ISO and a .462 OPS.

Read more about this matchup in our Tigers vs. Twins predictions.

Marlins vs Royals: Royals

Royals win probability: 50%

There are very few teams in baseball as hot as the Kansas City Royals, and the Marlins are not one of them.

To keep it simple, the Marlins have a wRC+ under 100 over their last 12 games, while the Royals have a wRC+ above 115 over their last 21 games.

Plus, Randy Dobnak has been extremely serviceable for Kansas City. Trust the hot bats against the Fighting Fish.

Brewers vs Cubs: Brewers

Brewers win probability: 46%

Coming off allowing nine home runs and losing 17-3, the Brewers are the lean here, relying only on the idea that the Cubs won’t be able to replicate that offensive production in back-to-back games.

Plus, Matthew Boyd owns a near 6.00 xERA over his last five starts, along with a 12.24% barrel rate.

Brewers are the lean, but find out more in our Brewers vs. Cubs predictions!

A's vs Rangers: Rangers

Rangers win probability: 66%

Even though MacKenzie Gore has been iffy at times with opponents making a ton of contact off him, the Rangers’ bats are red hot and hard to fade right now.

The city-less Athletics have been ice cold, while the Rangers own a .203 ISO, 10.7% barrel rate and 122 wRC+ over their last six games.

The Athletics have not been too great against southpaws this season, so expect Gore to have his way tonight.

White Sox vs Astros: White Sox 

White Sox win probability: 50%

After a tough loss Monday evening, the White Sox should be able to bounce back against Ronel Blanco, who has been pretty brutal over his last five outings — posting a 7.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 11.88% walk rate. At home, it has been even worse, as he owns an 8.10 ERA.

White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has not been much better as of late. However, the way this White Sox team has bounced back after tough losses this season makes it hard to imagine them losing back-to-back games.

Neil Parker also took Chicago in his complete White Sox vs. Astros predictions!

Orioles vs Rockies: Rockies

Rockies win probability: 42%

After Colton Cowser robbed what could have been a walk-off home run from the Rockies last night, they should be ready to get that win back tonight against Kyle Bradish.

The Orioles right-hander has been getting lit up as of late, owning a 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.

On the other hand, despite Gabriel Hughes’ disgusting recent numbers, he has a 3.33 xERA on the season and doesn't give up much hard contact.

The dog is an interesting side here.

Yankees vs Angels: Angels 

Angels win probability: 36%

Simply for the price and how well Grayson Rodriguez has been on the rubber, the Angels are worth the sprinkle.

The Los Angeles right-hander is allowing little to no hard-hit or barreled balls over his last five starts. On top of that, he owns a 2.45 xERA over his last five outings.

Neither offense has been overly impressive, so fading Yankees ace Gerrit Cole feels worth the dabble.

For a deeper dive into this matchup, read our Yankees vs. Angels predictions.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Phillies 

Phillies win probability: 55%

Paying slight juice for a lineup that crushes left-handed pitching, while having Jesus Luzardo on the mound, sounds like a price worth paying today.

Luzardo on the road this season has been lights out, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while allowing little to no hard contact.

Against southpaws, the Phillies own a .334 wOBA, .751 OPS and 110 wRC+ this season. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have just a 90 wRC+, 6.5% barrel rate and 34% hard-hit rate over their last six games.

Our Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions expand on why Philly is the play.

Cardinals vs Dodgers: Cardinals

Cardinals win probability: 36%

At this price, and given how lifeless the Dodgers have been, the Cardinals offer a ton of value.

Over their last 12 games, the Dodgers have a 33% hard-hit rate and 4% barrel rate. They are not hitting the ball with any quality contact, yet they are still being priced as if they are white hot.

Sure, it is the Monstars of L.A., but the Cardinals have Michael McGreevy on the mound, and he has not been allowing much hard contact while owning a 3.39 xERA over his last three starts.

The Cards are worth the sprinkle.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As the Cardinals and their reasonably solid road record (34-32) head to Dodger Stadium, the reigning back-to-back champs are excited by the return of one of their key players, Will Smith. Out since early June with neck inflammation, Smith is finally ready to go and should slot right back into the middle of the batting order that probably needs him far more than anyone would be comfortable with. While the struggles of the offense in the previous month have been well-documented, the lack of production from the right-handed group has been a problem for the majority of the season. Between Smith missing so much time, Andy Pages currently on the shelf, and others underperforming, it hasn’t been easy to say the least.

Recent numbers show both sides struggling, but if we consider the whole season, the Dodgers are second in baseball with a wRC+ of 120 among left-handed hitters—that number drops sharply to an even 100 when it comes to right-handed batters. Now, is it ideal to put this much pressure on a hitter who, albeit superb, wasn’t exactly lighting the league on fire prior to his injury? Probably not. However, you play with the hand that you’re dealt, and given how phenomenal Smith was a season ago, it’s relatively acceptable that the team would still heavily rely on him for right-handed power.

This first game back for Smith arrives with him catching a pitcher whose arrival nearly coincided with his injury. Going on the IL shortly after Eric Lauer was acquired, Smith has only worked with the veteran southpaw once, back when Lauer made his Dodgers debut at home against the Rockies. While this team’s undefeated streak with Lauer on the mound came to an end in August, it’s still standing when it comes to home starts—the Dodgers have won in all five of Lauer’s appearances at Dodger Stadium.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Cardinals
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Start time: 7:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

The Dodgers on Tuesday made a minor trade, sending Triple-A right-hander José Rodríguez to the Toronto Blue Jays for minor league pitcher Sebastian Rodríguez.

I know what you’re thinking — maybe the various minor league affiliates the 25-year-old José Rodríguez pitched at might still have some old Rodríguez jerseys lying around. But the 20-year-old Sebastian Rodríguez is only 5’10, a full eight inches shorter than Jose.

José did well this year, after missing the first two and a half months while recovering from an ACL injury suffered at the end of the 2025 season. With Oklahoma City, Rodríguez had a 3.38 ERA in 21 games with 36 strikeouts and 18 walks and only one home run allowed in 29 1/3 innings.

This was likely the case of the Dodgers getting something in return for someone they might have lost in the Rule 5 Draft, though admittedly with the pending lockout coming on December 1, whether the Rule 5 Draft even happens this offseason is unknown. Either way, José Rodríguez likely didn’t figure to land on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster this offseason.

Rodríguez was listed last December as someone likely to be plucked in the Rule 5 Draft, but he stayed put.

Nicknamed Tibu (or Shark, in English), José Rodríguez was on my radar for the three three-inning saves between High-A Great Lakes and Class-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2024, plus a five-inning save that season for Great Lakes.

Sebastian Rodríguez was signed by Toronto out of Venezuela in June, and pitched in seven games this season in the Dominican Summer League. The right-hander struck out 11 of his 36 batters faced and allowed seven runs (six earned) on six hits and three walks in his first experience pitching professionally. Rodríguez turned 20 years old on August 13.

Somewhere between two emergency call-ups to Triple-A, a disaster day in Albuquerque, and a six-week stint on the injured list, Stu Flesland III put together one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the Colorado Rockies’ minor league system.

The 25-year-old left-hander enters the season’s final stretch with a 3.03 ERA across three levels, a 6-2 record, and an Eastern League Pitcher of the Week award to show for his second half at Double-A Hartford. None of that was the expectation. Flesland was Colorado’s 11th-round pick in 2023 out of Washington, for a modest $150,000 signing bonus — the profile of organizational pitching depth, not a prospect anyone circled for a breakout. Three years later, he’s forcing the issue.

The scenic route to Hartford

Flesland’s 2026 didn’t move in a straight line. He opened the year back at High-A Spokane, the level where he’d logged a full season in 2025, and was mostly excellent in a short look — a 3.63 ERA over 17.1 innings, with a career-high strikeout rate (9.87 K/9) but also his highest walk rate in that stretch (3.63 BB/9). From there, he was Colorado’s answer when Triple-A Albuquerque came up short on arms — summoned twice in the span of about three weeks, making one appearance both times. He went back to Spokane after the first call-up. The second, on May 15, was a disaster on its own — one inning, nine runs, four walks — and this time, rather than sending him back to Spokane again, the Rockies reassigned him straight to Hartford.

He didn’t miss a beat there: 3.1 innings, one run, in his Double-A debut on May 19, then five more relief outings into mid-June, working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (a 5.40 ERA over 11.2 innings in June, with a save mixed in). He then missed time after a June 16 outing. Flesland came back on July 3 as a starter and hasn’t left the rotation since: a 1.53 ERA in July, a 1.29 ERA in August, and a combined 61 strikeouts against 24 walks in 73.2 Double-A innings on the year.

What the numbers say — and what they don’t

The headline ERA is real, but it’s not the whole story, and it’s worth separating what’s earned and what’s been aided by good fortune.

The gain that looks sustainable isn’t the strikeout-to-walk profile — his walk rate is actually up from a year ago, from 6.5% at High-A in 2025 to 8.4% at Double-A this year (basically back to his 2024 level, and his K-BB (13.0% is a step down from last year’s 15.0%. What has genuinely changed is the shape of the contact he’s allowing: his ground-ball rate is a career high of 51.1%, real growth from the 45-46% he ran in each of the previous two full seasons. That’s a different pitcher than the one who finished 2025 in the Northwest League — more of a ground-ball arm, less of a swing-and-miss one — even if it’s not a cleaner strikeout-to-walk pitcher.

The gains that need a caveat: His 1.95 ERA at Hartford is dramatically better than his FIP (3.84) or xFIP (4.44) at the same level — the résumé of a pitcher who’s been helped by a .242 BABIP and an 80.6% strand rate, both of which are well outside what most pitchers sustain over a full season. An ERA- of 41 next to an xFIP of -94 is about as wide a gap as exists in this system, and it’s the single number most likely to normalize as time goes on.

The stuff itself is hard to fully evaluate from the data available: Statcast pitch-tracking only exists from his brief Triple-A cameo — 86 total pitches — showing a four-pitch mix of four-seam (33.7%, 91.0 mph), sinker (8.1%, 91.4 mph), slider (39.5%, 78.9 mph), and changeup (18.6%, 86.1 mph), with a slider-heavy approach.

It’s too small of a sample size to treat as a full scouting report on his repertoire, but the shape — a below-average-velocity fastball paired with a slider he throws almost 40% of the time — is at least consistent with a pitcher who misses more bats than his fastball alone would suggest.

The role question

The full-season starter/reliever split tells its own story about where Colorado sees him right now, or at least where he’s pitched best: as a starter in 2026, Flesland has a 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across 55.1 innings; in relief, a 4.99 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 39.2 innings. Some of that is the sample of a rough Triple-A look, but the gap is large enough, and the second-half rotation results strong enough, that the case for stretching him out as a starter or long reliever looks better than the case for a middle-bullpen arm future — at least based on what he’s shown since Hartford put him in the rotation in July.

At 25, Flesland doesn’t have the prospect pedigree that usually accompanies this kind of run — an 11th-round college arm three years off the draft is not a name most outside the organization are tracking. But a full-season strikeout-to-walk rate north of 12%, a career-high ground-ball rate, and back-to-back sub-2.00 ERA months are the kind of stretch that at least earns a longer look.

Weekly Pebble Report: August 25th-31st

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (3-3, 65-67 Overall)

Albuquerque split six at Round Rock (Texas Rangers) in a series between clubs that arrived with similar records. The Isotopes won three in a row in the middle — including an 11-3 game Thursday in which they trailed 3-1 through seven innings and then scored five in the eighth and five in the ninth — and reached exactly .500 at 65-65 before dropping the last two. Vimael Machín drove in a team-high seven runs, Sterlin Thompson (PuRP No. 16) drew nine walks, and Tyler Freeman homered. Six different Albuquerque pitchers finished the series without allowing an earned run.

⬆️ Stock Up:Condon rediscovers his swing

Charlie Condon (PuRP No. 2) hit .350 across all six games, going 7-for-20 with two doubles, four RBIs, and a club-leading six runs scored. The more telling number is the strikeouts: three in 20 at-bats. He reached base 12 times in all, adding four walks and a hit-by-pitch. It was the sort of week the organization has been waiting for since his cold stretch began.

⬇️ Stock Down: Cande gets hit hard

Jarrod Cande gave up nine hits and seven runs while recording eight outs across two appearances. The second was the damaging one: he entered Sunday’s finale and allowed five hits in two-thirds of an inning, including a three-run homer that turned a 4-1 deficit into a rout. He also walked three in Tuesday’s opener, a game Albuquerque lost on a walk-off. In a series where the bullpen was otherwise excellent, Cande’s two outings accounted for a disproportionate share of the damage.

Upcoming

The Isotopes return to Albuquerque for six games against the Tacoma Rainers (Seattle Mariners)

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (4-2, 61-64 Overall)

Hartford won four of six at New Hampshire (Toronto Blue Jays). The running game was the defining feature — Hartford stole 20 bases across the series, seven of them in Sunday’s finale alone — and the pitching was steady enough that only two starters allowed more than two earned runs. Dyan Jorge drove in six, and Roynier Hernandez, in his first week with the club, added five.

⬆️ Stock Up:Humphrey won’t stop hitting

Jacob Humphrey went 11-for-21 (.524) with multi-hit games in four of his five starts, adding a double, three stolen bases, and three runs scored. Two weeks into his time at Double-A, he is hitting .438 overall. The one caveat is that the production came almost entirely at the top of the order rather than driving runs in — he finished with two RBIs — but as a table-setter he has been close to unmissable, reaching base 14 times in five games.

⬇️ Stock Down: Hill Goes Quiet Against a Familiar Foe

GJ Hill hit .125 across five games, managing two hits in 16 at-bats with no RBI and six strikeouts. What makes it striking is the opponent: Hill hit .412 with two home runs and seven RBIs against these same Fisher Cats a month ago, a performance that earned him a spot in this column. He drew four walks, but a middle-of-the-order bat going a full series without driving in a run is a problem for a club that scored more than six runs only twice.

Upcoming

The Yard Goats will host the Reading Fightin’ Phils (Philadelphia Phillies) for a six-game series.

High-A: Spokane Indians (2-4, 56-69 Overall)

Spokane dropped four of six at Vancouver (Toronto Blue Jays), and one of the losses will sting for a while: a 15-14 defeat in 10 innings Friday in which the Indians trailed 8-0 after two innings, led 14-13 in the tenth, and lost on a balk with two outs. The two clubs combined for 29 runs and 33 hits. Tommy Hopfe hit .391 across all six games, Alan Espinal added three doubles, and Bryson Van Sickle threw seven innings of two-run ball. Kelvin Hidalgo struggled badly at the plate, striking out 11 times in 20 at-bats.

⬆️ Stock Up: May Gives Spokane a Clean Start

Aiden May made one start and made it count, throwing five innings without an earned run in Wednesday’s 5-3 win — the only run against him came unearned. He scattered four hits and walked two. It was a single outing rather than a body of work, and he struck out only one, but on a staff where six different arms allowed at least four runs in an appearance this series, a starter turning in five clean innings was worth something.

⬇️ Stock Down: Brito’s Bat Disappears

Roldy Brito (PuRP No. 3) went 3-for-22 (.136) with eight strikeouts across five games, driving in one run. It’s a stark reversal from the hot bat we’ve seen for much of the latter stages of August. He remained a threat on the bases with two more steals, and he’s still hitting .278 on the season, but that contact that’s made him so effective went missing entirely against Vancouver.

Upcoming

The Indians will return home for a six-game series with the Everett AquaSox (Seattle Mariners)

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (3-3, 68-58 Overall)

Fresno split six at Inland Empire (Los Angeles Angels) in a series where the offense mostly disappeared, and the Grizzlies won anyway. They scored 27 runs across the six games, and eight of those came in a single win. A couple of the victories arrived late: an eight-run night that survived a ninth-inning grand slam and a four-run eighth to break a tie. Cort MacDonald had seven hits, Wilder Dalis (PuRP No. 10) added six, and Ethan Cole threw four scoreless innings with six strikeouts.

⬆️ Stock Up: Natili Provides the Power

Jack Natili (PuRP No. 20) hit .333 over four games with two home runs and three RBIs, going deep in both Friday and Sunday’s games. In a series where the Grizzlies managed more than five runs only twice, Natili accounted for a meaningful share of what damage there was. He has settled into the full-season baseball quickly.

⬇️ Stock Down: Andujar Can’t Get Started

Ashly Andujar went 3-for-21 (.143) across five games without driving in a run, striking out six times from the top of the order. For a series in which Fresno scored 27 runs total and needed late rallies to win two of them, getting nothing from the leadoff spot made the math harder every night. He did double and draw a walk, but he scored just twice in five games and reached base only four times all week.

Upcoming

Fresno will close out the regular season by facing off against the San Jose Giants (San Francisco Giants) for six games.

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Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
• A June swoon so far
• Awful
• Fake it and maybe make it
• With some luck, back on the horse
• Dwelling in the dog days of August

On August 15, the Braves were enjoying an 8-5 month. They then had more or less the road trip from hell, only to return home and sweep the Dodgers and keep it going with another sweep of the Rockies right after. In total, they went 9-6 over August’s second half. That .600 winning percentage is right in line with their overall .594 winning percentage, so nothing strange there. But, the way they got there… I’ll keep saying it, but this is a weird Braves team.

How did the Braves do recently?

This is basically the crux of the weirdness of the month… and year. The Braves finished these two-ish weeks with a matching .298 wOBA and xwOBA. Both of those are bottom ten marks over this span. The defense wasn’t anything special, either, such that the Braves ranked 19th in team position player fWAR in this span.

The team did hit a little better in August as a whole — 17th in xwOBA, 20th in wRC+, 19th in position player fWAR — but again, this was not some kind of strong offensive performance.

Pitching was a little more clear-cut in some ways, and less in others. The Braves finishing third in MLB in pitching fWAR over August’s second half, but that came with a 73/82/97 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) where the success was highly driven by stuff they didn’t control. Going sixth in ERA-, third in FIP-, and tenth in xFIP- for a couple of weeks will play, don’t get me wrong, but it doesn’t quite feel like it really compensated for the poor offense. Both the rotation and bullpen benefited from a low HR/FB, and both ranked highly in fWAR as a result.

For August as a whole, the pitching staff was fifth in MLB in fWAR — second by the rotation, and middle of the pack by the bullpen. For all the hand-wringing about not getting a better starter at the Trade Deadline, the rotation really stepped up… even the rotation’s xFIP- in August of 91 is good for sixth in MLB for the month.

For these two weeks, the Braves’ accumulated WAR suggested an 8-7 record, so they weren’t very far off. (Thanks, pitching staff and lack of fly balls leaving the yard!) For August, where the Braves went 17-11, they should have gone 15-13 by fWAR-based wins. So, yeah, this team is good at outplaying their production, as they have been for a while now.

Schedule and game-by-game odds-wise, again, the Braves should’ve gone 8-7. They did a little better. They didn’t have any groundbreaking upsets either way, but it is worth noting that losing their makeup game against the Giants at home on August’s final day was the team’s second-worst loss in terms of pre-game odds. Not being able to handle the Giants amid a successful season definitely factors into the weird.

How are the Braves doing on the season?

Well, there’s the rub, right? With five months in the books, the Braves are:

• 18th in position player fWAR, including 13th in xwOBA, 16th in wRC+, and ninth in team defense.
• 11th in pitching fWAR, broken down as 15th in the rotation and sixth in the bullpen, with an aggregate fourth, 13th, and 11th in ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, respectively.

Put all this together and through 138 games, the Braves have a team fWAR of 30.0. A replacement-level team would win about 41 of 138 games, and the Braves, by that logic, “should have” 71 wins. But, y’know, the Braves have 82 wins and not 71. Which all circles back to the idea that this team isn’t particularly good at anything except accumulating a bunch of wins without the production to justify it. It’s a hell of a thing to be good at, because it’s not really a skill, just a quirk, but the Braves just keep doing it. Seriously:

• April: 22-10, 19-13 by WAR-wins, +3
• May: 18-10, 15-12 by WAR-wins, +3
• June: 9-14 (ew), 8-15 by WAR-wins, +1 (even in June they did it!)
• July: 16-11, 14-13 by WAR-wins, +2
• August: 17-11, 15-13 by WAR-wins, +2

The 2026 Braves’ most consistent skill has been winning games on and above their production. Yay?

How are the hitters doing?

Boy, what a strange two weeks in this regard. Even stranger than usual.

Only four guys performed well at the plate over the last two weeks: Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy. Of those four, three massively outhit their inputs, while Matt Olson somehow got saddled with a massive underperformance, such that he actually lost a fraction of fWAR. The other guys all kinda sucked, both inputs-wise and outputs-wise. Mauricio Dubon at least outhit his inputs enough to be respectable, but Mike Yastrzemski fell into another underperformance vortex.

For the season as a whole, the breakdown more or less remains what it is at this point. This is a team led by Harris and Olson, with some good production from Baldwin as well. Dubon has been a great fill-in but isn’t anything special as a regular; the best buds of Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña Jr. have kind of cancelled out each other’s inputs-outputs mismatch and have been below-average regulars thus far, which is a shame. We kind of stopped talking about Austin Riley, but he’s back to being bad again. The outfield platoon, such as it is, is in a weird spot: Yastrzemski has been fine against righties and Lane Thomas has crushed lefties… but the Braves’ lack of slavish devotion to a platoon has harmed both of their lines and value.

You can see that other than the aforementioned best buds duo, the wOBAs and xwOBAs have largely normalized for anyone with a decent sample of PAs.

Harris gets a special shoutout for his contributions during these two weeks: only three of his teammates even finished in the positive in terms of WPA (Ha-Seong Kim being one of them, delightful walkoff with two outs and all), and he had more WPA (1.02) than those three combined. He probably won’t catch Olson (2.66) for the team lead in WPA, but it’s not that far (Harris has 2.21). If Chris Sale weren’t around, the debate between Harris and Olson for team MVP would at least be marginally interesting, but… Chris Sale is very much around.

How are the pitchers doing?

The rotation did well these past two weeks, and in August, so the numbers here are mostly gladdening. Sale’s video game numbers aside, Tyler Mahle pitched very well, and Grant Holmes actually chipped in a decent starting performance as well, though a lot of that was HR/FB-driven. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez had basically what-you-expect-from-these-guys-at-this-point stretches. If things keep up, a playoff rotation of Sale-Mahle-Perez seems pretty good, but the “if things keep up” is doing so much work there it’s almost not worth typing. I think that if push comes to shove, the Braves might give Bryce Elder the third spot because he hasn’t come out of the bullpen before, which is a risky proposition given his ongoing homer issues. With this roster, I can see an attempt at letting Elder start and run a bunch of lefties into the opposing lineup, and then the insertion of Perez as soon as there’s any trouble… but again, you’re still banking on Elder not giving up a homer (or like a walk-walk-homer combo) before you do that.

A special shoutout to Didier Fuentes, who didn’t actually pitch super-great (he was good, just not super-great) lately, but managed to rack up over 0.80 WPA in just seven outings, even while having two meltdowns. Also, file under “bet ya didn’t know this”: Raisel Iglesias managed a 5/0 shutdown/meltdown ratio over these past two weeks.

See you in the middle of September!