Guardians Salvage Rangers Series

CLEVELAND, OHIO - JULY 01: Catcher Austin Hedges #27 celebrates with closing pitcher Matt Festa #52 of the Cleveland Guardians after the game against the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field on July 01, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Guardians defeated the Rangers 9-4. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Much like in the last game I wrote about, this game, too, has been played by the Guardians quite a few times this year. Look out of whack for the first games of the series, and then suddenly put it all together to salvage the series in the finale. Regardless, I won’t be nearly as negative in today’s recap as I was in my last recap. Let’s start with the pitching.

Cantillo was shaky today, but managed — somehow — to Houdini act his way into a decent start. 5 innings, 2 runs. The command was an issue for him today (5 walks), most notably in the 3rd inning. Walk, walk, single, strikeout, RBI walk. The bases were loaded with 1 out, and the Guardians looked to be on the verge of blowing another lead. But, Cantillo managed to get Rangers’ rookie Cauley to ground into a double play, ending the inning. Cantillo’s only other earned run of the day came in the 6th. He walked the leadoff hitter, and was then pulled for Holdrman. Holderman gave up a single, then two groundouts (the second of which managed to drive in a run). Holderman, like Cantillo, was shaky. Holderman, however, moreso suffered from batted ball luck than command issues. He gave up 3 hits, 2 of which left the bat at less than 80 mph. (The sequence went single, forceout, RBI groundout, double, single, strikeout). One of those groundouts was corralled miraculously by second baseman Daniel Schneemann, preventing more damage that inning.

Herrin pitched the 7th, giving up a single and a walk, but managed to get out of danger by striking out Pederson and getting Smith to ground into a double play.

Sabrowski pitched the 8th, striking out 2 Rangers but unfortunately also giving up a solo homer to Elias Diaz.

Festa pitched the 9th, allowing no baserunners in a 1-2-3 inning.

To the offense.

They actually started out pretty strong today, but finally managed to put runs on the board in the 2nd. Rocchio and Arias both singled to start off the inning, and then Watson struckout. Hedges pulled off a textbook bunt, driving in Rocchio. Schneemann was walked on four pitches, and then Fry did this.

5 runs by the end of the 2nd inning is an almost Herculean task for this Guardians offense, and it’s nice to know that this, in one form or another, is actually possible with this iteration of the lineup.

The Rangers managed to pull within 2 runs of the Guardians (thanks to the bullpen) in the 6th, but the Guardians answered back in the 7th. Kwan hit a triple (?), and then DeLauter (recording his 3rd hit of the day), scorched a ball to right field (110 mph), driving in Kwan. DeLauter stole second, and then Rangers reliever Winston Santos threw a couple oopsies into the dirt. Those wild pitches got DeLauter from second to home in a matter of three pitches. Hoskins walked, and then the Guardians made 3 consecutive outs to end the inning.

Much to Josh Naylor’s chagrin, Austin Hedges hit a home run today. For those keeping track at home, Hedges now has a wRC+ above Naylor’s, and an fWAR total most likely tied with Naylor’s after today’s events. Not bad for a backup to a backup.

The Guardians managed to salvage the series, winning today’s affair 9-4. The White Sox come to town for a very consequential 4-game set starting tomorrow. It’ll be Cecconi vs. Davis Martin.

Dominic Smith at DH and Mike Yastrzemski in RF in Game 2 vs. the Cardinals

ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 28: Dominic Smith #8 and Mike Yastrzemski #18 of the Atlanta Braves celebrate after the game against the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park on March 28, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images

June swoon is OUT. Fly high July is IN.

We would very much like to see the Braves get back to playing watchable baseball. Decent, even, if they feel so inclined. 

With a rough month in the rearview, it’s time for the Braves to take advantage of a little mental reset that the first of July can bring and get back to their winning ways on both sides of the ball. 

One former-White-Sox-pitcher-turned-Braves-starter-turned-bullpen-arm-turned-starter-again follows another with Martín Pérez and Reynaldo López starting these first two games versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Walt Weiss is sticking with the same 1 through 5, 7, and 9 in the order. We saw some signs of life from leadoff man Drake Baldwin last night with his seventh inning single, snapping a 36-at-bat streak. He will be behind the plate for López today. Dominic Smith will DH and hit sixth while Mike Yastrzemski swaps out in Eli White’s spot to play right field and bat eighth ahead of shortstop Jorge Mateo. 

Maybe this will be the magical combination that can put up a crooked number against their opponent (and win). A baseball team cannot sustain itself on weird defensive misplays and Ozzie Albies sac flies alone. (Fun stuff from the game notes: Ozzie’s sac fly last night was his 10th of the season and career high – he’s one of seven Braves with double-digit sac flies in a season. He’s the first to do it since Austin Riley had 11 in 2023.)

Only three current Cardinals have ever faced López before and they will be batting second, third, and sixth. In five collective ABs, they’re batting .000 and have one walk courtesy of Masyn Winn. Alec Burleson gets the start at first bae and bumps down Jordan Walker to the cleanup spot. New face Jimmy Crooks will catch for Michael McGreevy and bat ninth.

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s resurgence critical to Padres' hopes against Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball

Fernando Tatis Jr. is back with a vengeance.

On the latest episode of CC Sabathia’s podcast, MLB According to CC, the Yankees legend previewed how the Padres will stack up against the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball, with San Diego and Los Angeles set to lead one of Star-Spangled Sunday's marquee matchups at 7pm ET on NBC and Peacock.

Sabathia said the Padres “need Tatis driving the ball out of the yard” in order for them to compete, not only in critical four-game series, but as season-long challengers to the Dodgers' NL West supremacy. With Tatis Jr. seemingly free from his early-season struggles, the Padres head to their division rivals with some momentum.

RELATED: How to watch Star-Spangled Sunday on NBC, Peacock: TV/live stream info, schedule, preview for all-day MLB

This weekend's showdown will mark the first time this season the two teams have met in Los Angeles. “Dodgers and Padres fans really go at it,” said the Hall of Famer looking ahead to the series.

The Dodgers are 4-2 against the Padres this season, with better numbers than their division rival in most categories across the board. As of July 1, San Diego sits 12 games outside of first place, leaving the Friars with plenty of work to do in Southern California this weekend. It's the largest gap between the top two teams in any division so far this year.

Mason Miller and Tanner Scott may possess baseball’s best sliders. CC Sabathia dives into both elite pitches, highlighting how he threw his own back in the day.

Watch Star-Spangled Sunday on July 5, where all 15 MLB games will be presented nationally across Peacock, NBC and NBCSN. Every team. Every game. One home.

White Sox can cement "staying power" atop AL Central against Guardians on Star-Spangled Sunday

Very few could have predicted that the Chicago White Sox would lead the AL Central three months into the 2026 season. That's why Hall of Famer CC Sabathia believes they are the "surprise of the summer," entering July as the slight division leader over the Guardians. The youthful White Sox hit the road this weekend for a key division series in Cleveland, which sits just outside of first place, where they'll face off on Star-Spangled Sunday at 2pm ET, with all 15 MLB games available nationally on Peacock, NBC and NBCSN on July 5.

In the latest episode of his podcast, MLB According to CC, Sabathia evaluated the road ahead for the White Sox as they look to stick around in the American League playoff race. It's been a dramatic turnaround for a franchise that has lost 100+ games in each of the past three seasons, headlined by a dismal 2024 where they finished 41-121, the worst record in modern MLB history. The 2026 White Sox are fun and energetic, headlined by a core of young talent which Sabathia described as "a year or maybe two ahead of schedule."

RELATED: How to watch Star-Spangled Sunday on NBC, Peacock: TV/live stream info, schedule, preview for all-day MLB

The White Sox's recent success has largely come via the long ball. Since June 17, the White Sox lead the league in home runs (18, as of July 1). One of the offensive catalysts has been 23-year-old left fielder Sam Antonacci, who is enjoying an excellent rookie campaign with an OPS above .800. Miguel Vargas, Colston Montgomery, and Munetaka Murakami have also had big years at the plate so far in the South Side. All four are 26 years or younger. That's not to mention Braden Montgomery, Jacob Gonzalez, Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, all of whom stand as key pieces of the organization's future.

"When you got a young team like that and they're all feeding off each other, you don't know any better," Sabathia said. "You're just going out every single day trying to win a ball game, it's fun to watch them come out with this much energy."

The White Sox will look to take their momentum into this weekend and the rest of the summer as they chase their first division title since 2021. With just a handful of AL teams above .500 and a Central division that is "treading water," a joyous return to October could be in the cards for the Sox.

Watch Star-Spangled Sunday on July 5, where all 15 MLB games will be presented nationally across Peacock, NBC and NBCSN. Every team. Every game. One home.

44-43 – Rangers see streak snapped with finale loss in Cleveland

Jul 1, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio (4) is safe at home plat as Texas Rangers catcher Elias Diaz (35) loses control of the ball during the second inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers scored four runs but the Cleveland Guardians scored nine runs.

I will simply choose to be glad that A. the Rangers enjoyed a successful road trip against all odds and B. the road trip has now concluded.

Despite this one appearing to be an imminently winnable contest (after all, Texas did have 12 opportunities with RISP of which they only converted three while also leaving nine on base), a MacKenzie Gore flareup inning in the bottom of the second put the Rangers in a 5-0 hole and that’s usually not something teams come back from.

It seemed like the Rangers might, though. They got to within 5-3 in the middle innings and had base runners and chances littered throughout but, in a game reminiscent of darker times from this season, they couldn’t get the big hit to get over the hump.

After getting the first two hitters on in the top of the seventh down a couple runs, Joc Pederson K’d in a pinch hit spot and then Josh Smith hit into a double play. That was the second double play that erased a prime scoring chance for Texas as Cam Cauley was doubled up to end a bases loaded threat in the top of the third.

Cole Winn was in the game for the bottom of the seventh and, well, you know what that usually means. Winn allowed a run and a hit that eventually came around to score to give Cleveland a comfortable lead.

Also, once the wheels kind of came off, Winston Santos finally got to make his MLB debut. After a shaky first few pitches, Santos got through his first inning as a big leaguer technically still sporting a 0.00 ERA despite allowing an inherited run to score. That did not last for long, however, as Santos was asked to finish things off with a second inning and old hero Austin Hedges took him deep for a two-run dong.

The Rangers are beat up. Probably like 60% of the roster would be in Round Rock if the FO had their druthers. They’ve played like 40 games in a row. They’ve played the most road games in baseball so far this season. They’ve played like 80 road games in a row. They’ve won some games they’ve had no business winning. I suppose for today we owe them a blind eye for an ugly afternoon.

Even with everything being familiarly weird for the Texas Rangers, and a blowout loss in this finale, they return home having enjoyed a 7-3 road trip which propelled them back over .500 and atop the AL West.

Player of the Game: Elias Diaz had a couple of hits and a couple of RBIs and also smacked his first home run as a Ranger. Unfortunately it was a solo shot in a 7-3 game and one of the rare moments that the Rangers didn’t have someone on the bases for them to strand.

Up Next: While the rest of the world has come down with a case of World Cup fever, the Rangers probably aren’t as thrilled about it. At least not this weekend.

There’s a World Cup Round of 32 match being played across the home parking lot on Friday which means, instead of getting a day off tomorrow, the Rangers fly out of Cleveland and immediately begin a home series against Detroit tomorrow night before getting their first rest in over two weeks on Friday after which the series will resume on Saturday.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi will pitch for Texas in the opener opposite LHP Framber Valdez. The Thursday evening first pitch from The Shed is scheduled for 7:05 pm CDT and you can catch it on the Rangers Sports Network.

Cavs sign rookie Meleek Thomas to a four-year deal

Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Meleek Thomas (1) shoots in the second half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Cavaliers have signed Meleek Thomas to a four-year, $9.3 million deal. Thomas was selected 34th overall by the Cavs last week in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Thomas played 37 games with Arkansas last year as a freshman. He averaged 15.7 points and 3.8 rebounds as a 6’3” sharpshooting combo-guard. The Cavs are excited to add an efficient shot-maker like Thomas to their roster.

“We were excited that he was available in the second round,” said POBO Koby Altman after selecting Thomas. “Usually, a guy of that caliber of scorer, that level of shot maker, his profile, you get a lot earlier.”

The first three years of the deal, worth $6.4 million, are guaranteed to Thomas.

Thomas shot above 40% from deep as a freshman. His marksmanship is one of the main reasons Cleveland targeted him in the draft despite him being a guard. The Cavs are loaded in the backcourt, but Thomas was too skilled for them to pass on.

Thomas doesn’t view the guards in front of him as obstacles, however. He plans on learning everything he can from Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.

“There’s a lot of great guards on the team ahead of me already, so just learning, pick their brain on what they did when they were rookies,” said Thomas. “Ultimately, all the knowledge that I gain from James, Donovan, any of the guards… me gaining knowledge from the ones that have been here, that’s gonna help me.”

The Cavs aren’t in a position to give Thomas many reps during his rookie season. This is a team that is ready to compete for a title and potentially even welcome home LeBron James (again). That means patience will be key in developing the 19-year-old rookie.

Adding to his 190-pound frame is one of his main goals.

“The Cavs have a great strength program going on, so my physicality… and just some of the high-level things that I might not know that rookies get adjusted to,” said Thomas on his focus for development.

Thomas shows promise as a three-point shooter who took steps forward as a defender last year. Those are two skills that every NBA team can use more of.

Orioles avoid sweep by White Sox as bats show up for Kremer’s return

BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 01: Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after the Baltimore Orioles defeated the Chicago White Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Olivia Vega/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Orioles did not get swept by the White Sox. They decided to try something different in the series finale, getting a good outing from the starting pitcher, a respectable amount of offense, and a clean game on defense. They would be higher up in the standings if they got this more often. On Wednesday afternoon, it was the recipe for a 6-1 victory to avoid the sweep. It’s better than if they’d lost, but there is, of course, a lot of work still to do.

Early in the game, the signs were there of this thing going in a different direction. Starting pitcher Dean Kremer returned from the injured list to make the start after an absence of nearly two and a half months. He allowed a home run on the second pitch he threw. The Orioles trailed immediately in the game, down 1-0 as soon as rookie leadoff man Sam Antonacci finished rounding the bases.

This did not turn out to be the start of a disastrous return for Kremer. He retired the next 11 batters he faced and, with a little help from his friends, even once that streak came to an end, he still kept the White Sox off the board. Kremer’s 11-in-a-row was interrupted with two outs in the fourth inning as outfielder Braden Montgomery came maybe one inch away from hitting a home run. Montgomery hit a fly ball that bounced off the back edge of the right-center field fence padding, close enough that the Sox insisted on a crew chief review to check if this was actually a home run. It wasn’t.

Kremer walked the next batter, Jacob Gonzalez. An ongoing problem for Orioles pitchers this year has been getting that last out to stop a two-out rally from getting out of hand. That was nearly the story again on Wednesday, as Chase Meidroth slashed a line drive the other way towards right field. Tyler O’Neill got a good jump, gave chase, and made a great diving catch to stop Chicago from adding on more runs. No, really, O’Neill did something good. More on that in a moment.

Chicago’s leadoff man reached in the fifth inning. That was Tristan Peters, who hit a single. Helpfully for the Orioles, the White Sox made the tactically poor decision to have shortstop Luisangel Acuña drop an attempted sacrifice bunt. Acuña wasn’t good at it, with Kremer throwing out Peters at second base. Acuña compounded his negative contribution by attempting to steal second base, during which he was thrown out as Adley Rutschman made an excellent throw. Rutschman has now thrown out 15 of 40 runners this year. That’s a 37.5% rate, absolutely elite stuff.

Through all of this, the Orioles offense mustered zero hits. They had nothing to show through the first four innings of the game except for three walks. Better to have the three walks than not, but still. Sheesh. Get some hits!

It was O’Neill who broke the no-hitter before anyone really had to start wondering, “Geez, what if this White Sox pitcher who brought an over 5 ERA into the game throws a no-hitter?” Noah Schultz, a recent top 30ish prospect in the game, also returned from the injured list for this start. Schultz is notable for being 6’10” but more relevant to facing the Orioles, is left-handed. That’s their curse this year.

Schultz threw O’Neill a sweeper that didn’t quite sweep enough. The Canada native did not miss on Canada Day, blasting a mammoth home run 430 feet to left field to tie the game at 1-1.

Within three batters, Schultz’s day was done. The last two he faced were Jackson Holliday and Blaze Alexander, who walked and singled, respectively. Chicago turned to reliever Bryan Hudson to stop the rally. Instead, the Orioles continued the conga line around the bases. Gunnar Henderson added a single to load the bases with one out. Another curse for the Orioles this year, at times, is performance with the bases loaded. Could they write a different story today?

The answer turned out to be yes. Following Henderson, Rutschman hit a line drive that went out to the outfield so fast that there was no opportunity for any runner to advance more than 90 feet. This gave the Orioles a 2-1 lead, one that, it turned out, would be enough to win the game. Thankfully, they kept scoring anyway. Taylor Ward added a sacrifice fly, after which Chicago changed pitchers again. The next reliever, Trevor Richards, brought home a fourth Orioles run as he hurled a wild pitch. You may note that this means the Orioles scored all three runners after first loading the bases with one out. They should try that more often.

Staked to a three-run lead, Kremer gave up a single to the first Sox batter he faced before retiring the next three in order. Though he wasn’t at a high pitch count, the Orioles did not push him beyond six innings in his first start back from the injured list. Kremer’s final line with 79 pitches thrown was six innings with one run allowed on four hits and a walk. Chicago did not score again after their first batter of the game.

Alexander delivered an RBI triple for the fifth Orioles run, and later on, Leody Taveras homered for the third time this season to set the score at its 6-1 final. The O’s had the same number of hits in the game as they did walks, and they made a good showing out of their scoring chances. As we know, this is not guaranteed this year.

Even though the Orioles had a five-run lead, they were warming up closer Ryan Helsley to pitch the ninth inning just to get him an inning of work to keep him from getting rusty. Helsley never made it into the game. His warmup tosses were shut down and MASN cameras showed him sitting back down in the bullpen, holding his right elbow area ominously. After the game, manager Craig Albernaz said there was elbow discomfort. Helsley will get checked out further. That’s a sour lingering taste from a nice win.

The 40-48 Orioles have a day off on Thursday before resuming their season in Cincinnati for a 4th of July weekend series against the Reds. Trevor Rogers and Brady Singer are currently listed as the scheduled starting pitchers for the 7:10 Friday opening game of the series.

**

It has been a tradition for many years on Camden Chat to nominate a Most Birdland Player of the game after every victory. What does “Most Birdland” mean? Each person must search themselves and decide. In some cases, this is the game’s most valuable player. In other cases, it does not. Give us your pick in the comments below.

Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan highlight 2026 MLB Futures Game rosters

TULSA, OKLAHOMA - APRIL 19: Kade Anderson #32 of the Arkansas Travelers sits in the dugout during a game against the Tulsa Drillers at ONEOK Field on April 19, 2026 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan will be teammates once again. No, the Seattle Mariners have not yet called up there top two prospects still in the minor leagues. But during MLB’s All-Star Break, the MLB Futures Game will feature both young hurlers on the American League roster. The game will be held at 9 AM PT/12 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Sunday, July 12th and will be broadcast on NBC (and presumably Peacock).

The two current Double-A Arkansas Travelers will face off against the National League lineup headlined by Milwaukee Brewers SS Jesús Made, Colorado Rockies 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Washington Nationals SS Eli Willits, and Los Angeles Dodgers OF Josue De Paula. They’ll be backed up defensively by Sacramento Athletics top prospect, SS Leo De Vries, as well as Chicago White Sox INF Caleb Bonemer, and a pair of AL East infielders in Yankees SS George Lombard Jr. and Red Sox youngster SS Franklin Arias.

In the newly updated MLB Pipeline prospects rankings, Anderson and Sloan are the 5th and 8th overall prospects in the sport, with Anderson the top pitching prospect in baseball and Sloan only behind Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Seth Hernandez (6th). No other pitchers rank inside the top 20. There is a high likelihood that Anderson, as the top pitching prospect in the sport by the assessment of many, is tasked with starting the game. Both pitching in a home park that’s extremely pitcher-friendly but a league that is otherwise not, they’re putting up performances worthy of the hype.

The 21 year old Anderson has 99 strikeouts against just 10 walks and a hit by pitch in 66.2 innings. His 1.22/1.55/2.58 ERA/FIP/DRA is evidential of total domination (27/33/48 ERA-/FIP-/DRA-, for some Texas League-comparative stats), with his multi-pitch mix including a deceptive fastball that outperforms its velocity consistently and sets up a pair of plus breaking balls and a changeup which will hopefully soon be on display in T-Mobile Park.

Sloan is just 20, and while he physically cuts a distinct profile from Anderson, but his performance has been nearly as impressive. The home run bug has bitten Sloan at times, bumping his 4.11/3.67 ERA/FIP, but his 3.32 DRA (61 DRA-) and FIP- (79) highlight his 72 punchouts and just 12 walks (2 HBP) in 57.0 innings as augurs of excellence. Sloan does this while generating an above-average walk rate that makes him a potential high-efficiency ace down the line.

Nationals’ Cade Cavalli apologizes for telling Willson Contreras to ‘sit down, boy’

BOSTON — Washington Nationals pitcher Cade Cavalli apologized for shouting “sit down, boy” at Boston Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras while instigating a benches’ clearing scrum a night earlier.

“I’m extremely torn up about the way that things were perceived,” Cavalli said. “Obviously, there was no ill intention behind that.”

Cavalli shouted at Contreras after striking him out looking with a full-count pitch in the fourth inning of the Nationals’ 8-1 victory over the Red Sox.

The term “boy” has a racist history in the U.S. Contreras, who is Venezuelan, demurred when asked after the game if he felt there was a racial component to Cavalli’s word choice.

“My teammates know me, my family knows me, this organization knows me,” Cavalli said. “I couldn’t sleep because of it. It hurt my heart, knowing that, if there’s a 13-year-old Black kid in D.C. that sees that — that looked up to me and thinks that he perceived it in a way that wasn’t intended the way that it came out, and then he’s not looking up to me anymore — that hurts my heart.”

When asked, he said he understands the meaning behind the word used.

“There’s a history behind that word, and that’s just something that as a competitor, like in football or basketball, playing whiffle ball with my brother, you don’t understand it,” Cavalli said. “And then it gets perceived in a way that was not my intention, and then you learn from that. It’ll never happen again.”

The 27-year-old right-hander said he didn’t realize the public outcry on social media until he got back to his hotel room.

“I looked at my phone, and I saw what people were saying about me. Saw how torn up my wife was. It hurt my heart,” he said. “I couldn’t believe it. I really couldn’t. Because I know that people know me, and they know my character, and that’s not me. So, it was hard. I truly didn’t sleep last night.”

Contreras was walking back to the dugout after striking out and yelled back at Cavalli: “Are you talking to me?” A few words were exchanged, and he charged the mound. He was stopped before he got to the pitcher. He tried to throw his helmet over a group of players at the righty.

Things settled down quickly after that, though the brief dustup ended with Contreras, Boston interim manager Chad Tracy, Red Sox outfielder Nate Eaton and Washington pitcher Miles Mikolas being ejected.

Cavalli said he hadn’t apologized to Contreras yet, but he hopes he hears his explanation.

“I have not reached out to him. I know that we’re both competitors, I hope that he hears this and he understands that was not what was intended at all,” Cavalli said. “I think he knows that. But if I see him, I want to make sure that he knows that.”

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Wednesday, July 1

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Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can guys like Yordan Alvarez or Jackson Chourio cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?

My best home run props for Wednesday, July 1 certainly hope so.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Astros Yordan Alvarez+225
Brewers Jackson Chourio+361
Marlins Esteury Ruiz+589
💲Today's HR parlay+10387

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+225)

Let me live, people! Yes, it is, in fact, Yordan Alvarez once again.

This evening he draws Minnesota Twins right hander Taj Bradley, who we all know struggles against left handed hitters. Away from home this season, Bradley is allowing lefties to elevate the ball at a 68.8% clip while giving up a 40% hard hit rate.

Over his last 60 left handed hitters faced, those numbers climb to a 53.3% hard hit rate, a 21.1% barrel rate, and a 71.1% elevation rate. During that stretch, lefties have also posted a .690 xSLG and .372 xwOBA against him.

Against Bradley, Alvarez not only owns an elite rating on Batters-Box, but he also covers nearly 90% of Bradley's arsenal. When rated elite this season, Alvarez is leaving the yard 30% of the time.

He has done nothing but scorch baseballs over 105 mph all week, and yesterday one finally left the yard. He is due for more.

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SCHN, MNNT

Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+361)

The Milwaukee Brewers’ young buck finds himself in a great spot against Cincinnati Reds left hander Andrew Abbott, who has struggled against right handed hitters this season. Over his last 90 batters faced, those hitters are generating a 43% hard hit rate and a 13% barrel rate.

During that stretch, Abbott owns a 5.59 xERA, while allowing a .354 xBA, .662 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA.

Jackson Chourio has been on a tear against southpaws. Over his last 60 plate appearances against left handers, he is posting a .345 batting average and .600 slugging percentage with a 1.000 OPS, while generating a 55% hard hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate.

With all the loud contact Abbott has been giving up, I think the future of Milwaukee helps lead the way here.

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ESPN

Home run pick: Esteury Ruiz (+589)

This is more of a fun one due to Esteury Ruiz having the fourth highest matchup rating on Batters-Box as he draws Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Against Freeland, Ruiz only covers around 35% of his arsenal, which is not ideal. However, his expected numbers are far greater, covering over 50%.

Freeland has had zero ounces of fun against right-handed hitters this season. The last 30 he has faced are producing a 45.8% hard hit rate and a 25% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 70.8% of the time. During that stretch, those hitters own a .687 xSLG and a .455 xwOBA.

With the Miami Marlins coming off putting up two touchdowns, I am not expecting much, just for Ruiz to go YA YA.

  • Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Rockies.TV
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 65-237, +9.04 units

Today’s HR parlay

Astros Yordan AlvarezBet Now
+10387
Brewers Jackson Chourio
Marlins Esteury Ruiz

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

José Cuas, Randy Dobnak called up

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 15: Jose Cuas #74 of the Kansas City Royals throws in the sixth inning in game two of a doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium on July 15, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Royals are having a hard time keeping pitchers on the roster in the dog days of summer. The team had a 5.60 ERA during the month of June, third-worst in baseball. Today the continued the roster churn, calling up veteran relievers José Cuas and Randy Dobnak from Triple-A Omaha. The team optioned Eric Cerantola to Omaha and placed pitcher Connor Seabold on the Injured List.

Cuas pitched for the Royals in 2022 and 2023, appearing in 92 games with a 4.08 ERA. The former infielder-turned-pitcher brings a sidearm delivery that generates high groundball rates, although he has struggled with walks at times. The Royals traded him in 2023 to the Cubs for outfielder Nelson Velázquez, and he has bounced around the league since then, pitching in the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Braves organizations. The Royals signed him to a minor league contract last winter and he had a 3.31 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 19 walks in 32.2 innings for Omaha.

The Royals acquired Dobnak from the Mariners for cash considerations two weeks ago. The 31-year-old right-hander had a terrific debut in a limited sample with the Twins in 2019, but has struggled since then. He has pitched in just six big league games since 2021 despite signing a guaranteed long-term contract with the Twins. He had a 4.24 ERA in 13 starts at Triple-A with the Mariners this year, but had an “upward mobility” clause in his minor league contract that required them to offer him to other teams to be placed on another 40-man roster. 

Cerantola has been up in a few stints with the Royals, but struggled mightily in the loss to the Rays Tuesday night, walking six of the nine batters he faced. In four games with the Royals, he has allowed six runs and 10 walks in 5.1 innings. Seabold exited yesterday’s game in the fifth inning and was diagnosed with a right lat strain. In five games with the Royals, he has allowed six runs (five earned).

To make room on the 40-man roster, the team transferred Kris Bubic to the 60-day Injured List. Bubic was to make a rehab start for Omaha tonight, but was scratched and will return to Kansas City for more observation. His stint on the Injured List backdates to May 15, so he would still be eligible to be activated by July 15, if he is healthy.

In addition to Bubic and Seabold, the Royals currently have Cole Ragans, Carlos Estévez, and Nick Mears on the Injured List. The pitching staff has given up 74 runs in their last nine games, including 22 runs on Saturday against the White Sox.

Kristaps Porzingis’ small second-year guarantee makes his contract a big win for Warriors

SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 10: Kristaps Porzingis #7 of the Golden State Warriors plays defense during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 10, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

When the Golden State Warriors signed Kristaps Porzingis to a two-year, $40M deal, it looked like it might be an overpay. Now that the contract details are out, it’s looking like the Dubs got a steal with their sharpshooting Latvian big man.

Porzingis has struggled with a mysterious health problem the last two seasons, which has been identified as Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or POTS. The condition can cause a rapid spike in heart rate when Porzingis sits up or stands, leading to lightheadedness or fatigue. It’s a big reason why Porzingis played only 42 games in 2024-25 and just 32 games last season, where he also struggled with Achilles tendonitis.

However, he’s still a proverbial “unicorn” when he’s on the court. He’s 7-foot-2 and a career 36.4 percent three-point shooter, while blocking 1.8 shots per game. Porzingis didn’t get much court time alongside Steph Curry, but there’s reason to believe his presence could greatly open up the Warriors offense with the scoring threat he provides.

Is it a risk? Yes, but far less than what was originally suspected. If Porzingis can play like he did before his struggle with POTS, $20M is a bargain for him. If he can’t stay on the court, the Warriors have only a minimal, $3M commitment for the 2027-28 season. And by signing Porzingis to his deal before July 1, the Warriors have gained valuable flexibility.

Since Porzingis technically signed an extension, not a new contract, he’s not subject to the normal waiting period to be eligible for trades. In general, teams can’t trade newly-signed free agents until at least Dec. 15. Structuring Porzingis’ deal as an extension, and giving him a pay cut, means his contract becomes immediately movable.

That could be crucial if the team’s longshot pursuit of Anthony Davis and LeBron James gains momentum. A short $20M contract is great for matching salaries, especially with the small buyout. Whether it’s this summer, the trade deadline, or even next June, this contract is a great trade chip.

Warriors vice president Rick “Macklin’s Dad” Celebrini has done well in getting Warriors players back on the court, so there’s reason to be optimistic about what he can do with Porzingis. If Celebrini could work his magic, the Porzingis deal would go from “value contract” to “outright steal.”

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher buy/sell: Andrew Abbott, Trey Yesavage, Emmet Sheehan, more

We're about to head into the All-Star break, which means we're more than halfway through the fantasy baseball season. By now, you know if you have a team that could contend for a title or not, and you know what categories you need to make it happen. If one of your weaknesses is pitching, this article could hopefully help you push your way to the top.

I wanted to look at starting pitchers who have over or underperformed in recent weeks and could be good players to trade for or trade away. I created a leaderboard of some of the most actionable in-season stats (SIERA, K-BB%, Stuff+, and Location+) and sorted for all starters who have thrown at least 20 innings since May 15th. This way, we're not just getting hot or cold stretches from the start of the season, but getting a picture of who this pitcher is now.

After that, I tried to sort not just by SIERA underachievers or overachievers, but I looked at who was well below league-average in K-BB%, Location+, or Stuff+ to see who deserved better or worse results. I then took what I knew about their pitch mixes or recent production and tried to create a list of pitchers who we should want to acquire or want to move on from.

Just a CRUCIAL NOTE that this is not a blind "trade for" to the top list and "trade away" the bottom list. Many pitchers on the bottom list are pitchers who I like but simply believe are currently producing better than we should expect going forward. They would only be pitchers to trade in the right deal, so make sure you read the analysis.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Buy

LEAGUE-WIDE AVERAGES FROM MAY 15th ON: SIERA (4.12), K-BB% (14%), STUFF+ (99), LOCATION+ (102)

NameIPERASIERAK-BB%Stuff+Location+
Emmet Sheehan46.15.2446053.5439710.2102.5057106.9734
Matthew Liberatore40.26.6393453.7585320.17553296.63287102.0414
Jack Flaherty334.0909093.1727410.243056101.5966102.7409
Jared Jones255.764.0327790.145455101.661104.5414
Landen Roupp45.15.9558834.1771580.13235397.61594107.1978
Aaron Nola436.9069774.0847590.149485106.5651105.2208
Kevin Gausman49.24.5302013.7433190.1761993.66544103.5324
Shota Imanaga516.1764714.1906430.13875689.16833112.6005
Eury Pérez25.12.8421053.4174210.210526115.83290.19917
Connor Prielipp52.25.1265824.0548050.14346100.1991101.8704
Brandon Sproat394.8461543.5791740.18518595.11584101.2921
Tatsuya Imai34.13.9320393.1564250.22627787.49572102.0811
Trevor McDonald514.9411773.9655460.11353799.29698100.6634
Sandy Alcantara68.15.0048784.2771530.12286799.86655104.7537
Ryan Weathers54.24.6097563.663420.178261100.5357106.6298
Braxton Ashcraft543.8333332.9440070.244444107.9801111.3702
Jack Perkins236.6521743.7626240.184466101.3674101.2006
Cade Cavalli503.423.0074530.227053103.4822100.9531
Roki Sasaki49.14.1959463.8051390.162562111.1158100.6609
Jake Bennett22.22.7794123.3661640.20689791.52034114.3751

There were a few pitchers who made this list that I'm not sure you can really "Buy." Guys like Jacob deGrom, George Kirby, Eury Perez, Nathan Eovaldi, Bryan Woo, Nolan McLean, Jesus Luzardo, and Gavin Williams. However, if fantasy managers are worried about some recent poor ERA numbers, we wouldn't be. The underlying skills remain strong, and I recorded a video on George Kirby this week, so you can watch that for more detailed analysis. I also don't think people in your league will trade away Braxton Ashcraft, but if anybody is worried about his 3.83 ERA over 54 innings since May 15th, I would be happy to acquire him. There looks to be very little difference between what he's doing over this stretch and what he did at the start of the season. He's still a top 25 starting pitcher for me.

There are also a few guys who made this leaderboard who I wouldn't "Buy" but I also would not sell. Both Shota Imanaga and Sandy Alcantara have better SIERA's than ERAs. Both of them are putting up strong Location+ grades, and Sandy has a league-average Stuff+ rating. In truth, Sandy has just been a solid, slightly above-average starter based on most of his metrics this season. In a shallower format, maybe that's a streamer, but I also think you're fine just holding him and benching him against tougher opponents. Imanaga's stuff has taken a step back of late. His fastball velocity has been mediocre, and some of the iVB is down. Plus, his splitter has not been as effective. Still, I think this is more of a rough patch than anything, and he was fine in his last outing against the Padres. I think Imanaga is just more of an SP3 for your fantasy teams than a potential ace or SP2.

Similarly, some guys are pitching well right now and have underlying metrics that support their current production, but don't suggest any additional steps are coming. Guys like Dustin May, Jake Bennett, and Sean Burke have earned their recent strong production and don't need to be guys you're looking to move on from. If you want a more detailed analysis of them, I spoke with Dustin May two weeks ago and wrote an article about his season, I covered Sean Burke in my starting pitcher streamers article this week, and Jake Bennett was featured in our waiver wire article.

I should also note that Tatsuya Imai made this list when looking at pitchers whose ERA is above their SIERA. Since May 15th, Imai has a 3.15 SIERA but a 3.93 ERA. However, I can't recommend him as a full-on buy. He also has a well-below-average 88 Stuff+ grade since that date, and I covered his recent success in my weekly streamers article, which you can read in full detail here. The abbreviated version is that he remains a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball that doesn't miss bats, and that makes me feel like he remains a risky bet going forward unless we see some more tangible pitch mix changes. You can feel free to gamble on him because his results have been good in his last two starts, and he was great in Japan, but he is a roll of the dice.

Emmet Sheehan - Dodgers

A week ago, I recorded a video about why Sheehan was one of my favorite buy-low candidates. Not much has changed in my view. He has one of the biggest gaps between ERA and SIERA of any starter on this list. His 20% K-BB% since May 15th is far above the league average, and both his Stuff+ and Location+ are above average. His fastball velocity, which was a concern earlier in the year, has settled around 94.5 mph, and he seems to have all the pieces to put together a really good run in the second half.

Jared Jones- Pirates

Listen, you're buying Jones because you know what type of pitcher he can be. His Location+ is actually above-average despite coming off Tommy John surgery, and the 14.5% K-BB% shows that he is missing bats. It's not so much that he's consistently missing his spots, but that he seems to have a few poorly executed pitches every game that just get teed off on. That's not uncommon for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery, and I understand if he's too inconsistent for you to trust right now, but I do think there will be much better days ahead.

Jack Flaherty - Tigers

I recorded a video this week about Flaherty’s return from the injured list. It was a really good outing, and these underlying metrics suggest he's a major buy-low. I'm not ready to go that far. I have no problem in trying to acquire Flaherty, and I do acknowledge that he is missing tons of bats since May 15th. However, a huge part of his last outing was that his four-seam fastball velocity was up around 94 mph, and he was able to pound the strike zone with it up top while landing his secondaries low in the zone. When he does that, he's really good. The issue is that he seems to struggle to do that consistently. I have trouble convincing myself it's different now.

Joey Cantillo - Guardians

I'm gonna cheat and add Cantillo here because we've seen a massive change from him in three games since he added a cutter and leaned into his curveball more. His stats from May 15th on are not enough to get him to qualify, but he might be one of the higher upside arms on this list, and I covered his pitch mix change last week in my streaming starting pitcher article, so check that out for a detailed breakdown.

Aaron Nola - Phillies

Listen, I know Nola has been bad, but a 15% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, and 105 Location+ tell us that so much of the process and raw skills are there. In this week’s streaming starting pitcher article, I talked about his new slider and his decreased use of fastballs, which are good developments. Pitchers that miss bats at the level Nola has been simply don't have ERA's this high. I understand that's not a comfort because he's not delivering right now, but I think the pitch mix changes and the whiffs are a good indication that better days are coming. I would still try to hold in deeper formats and be ready to add in shallower ones.

Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

I recorded a video on Kevin Gausman on Wednesday, and I'm not sure you can "buy" him because most fantasy managers know that he frequently goes through struggle patches where his fastball struggles to miss bats and gets hit hard. Since he has such a limited pitch mix, that can lead to poor results. Yet, on Tuesday, we saw his four-seam velocity back up, and he missed back with both his slider and splitter. He should settle back into the Gausman you expected.

Brandon Sproat - Brewers

I covered Sproat in the same article as Nola, linked above. That was before his start on Tuesday, which was another really solid effort. That's now five straight games where Sproat hasn't issued more than two walks, as the Location+ grade is creeping up. As I mentioned in the article this week, Sproat is doing a better job of commanding his fastball up in the zone and his secondaries at the bottom for whiffs. He had a 17% swinging strike rate in four starts heading into last night and then had a 12% mark last night, so it's been a solid five-start stretch for him. I would encourage you to read the article for the six paragraphs I wrote him, but I think Sproat is starting to figure things out with his arsenal, optimizing his pitch mix for more whiffs and locating his secondary pitches more consistently. We may be seeing a breakout happen here.

Jack Perkins - Athletics

When Perkins moved back into the A's rotation, I wrote about him in my streaming starting pitcher article. In that article, I mentioned that Perkins had a flat four-seam fastball and a good sweeper, but had some struggled against lefties, so his cutter and new gyro slider could be crucial for him. The cutter finds the zone often, and the gyro slider can miss bats. He can then also mix in his four-seam fastball, which is not a great pitch for lefties. At the time, I said I could see how this CAN work, but it hasn’t yet. Well, we've seen two more starts since then, and things have started to click. Since May 15th, Perkins has a 3.76 SIERA, 18.4% K-BB%, and above-average Stuff+ and Location+. When you pair that with the analysis of his overall pitch mix, Perkins is one of my favorite picks for a "breakout" second half.

Cade Cavalli - Nationals

I've said a few times this year that I think Cavalli will be an inconsistent starter who will have periods of strong production when his curveball is leading the way, kind of like we've seen with Framber Valdez, Aaron Nola, and Charlie Morton in recent seasons. However, the curve has been his only plus pitch, and the four-seamer simply doesn't miss bats. Well, recently, the velocity on his four-seamer and sinker is up, and he has introduced a cutter which gives him another strike pitch against lefties. I recorded a video on Cavalli today, but if the cutter command and fastball velocity maintain, we could see a legit second-half breakout.

Roki Sasaki - Dodgers

I covered Sasaki in the same article above that I covered Perkins in. In that article, I mentioned that Sasaki seemed to add vertical movement on his four-seamer and locate it better, and also do a better job locating his slider down in the zone. That has been a big component in his recent success. Now, there have been some inconsistent starts because his location and feel for his pitches comes and goes a bit, but he has earned his recent 4.19 ERA and is probably pitching slightly better than that, so if fantasy managers in your league feel like an implosion is coming, I would still take shares of Sasaki,

Ryan Weathers - Yankees

My podcast partner Nick Pollack did a 20-minute breakout on Ryan Weathers' last start, and my analysis is not going to be as detailed as that, so I encourage you to watch Nick's breakdown. I'm still in on Weathers myself because he continues to miss bats and the Location+ grade is still well above-average, even if we think he's been struggling of late. We know Weathers hasn't pitched a full season before, and there could be some fatigue or inconsistency as the season wears on, but if people have dropped Weathers, I'm OK taking a gamble here.

Jake Bennett - Red Sox

Bennett is coming off two outings against the Rockies in Coors and the Yankees at Fenway. In those outings, he showed the ability to be what Nick Pollack and I refer to as a SWATCH (Southpaw With a Tight Changeup). He has been locating the changeup down and away from righties really well and also peppered the top of the strike zone with four-seamers. He doesn’t throw hard, but his a five-pitch mix that, if commanded well, could be successful from the big left-hander who has elite extension. There will be some ups and downs, but Bennett gets the Angels, White Sox, and Rays next, which could be a decent run, and he might stick in the rotation with Connelly Early's recent elbow injury.

Connor Prielipp - Twins

Prielipp is somebody I was really into when he debuted because I think his slider is a legit elite pitch. The issue is that his four-seam fastball is just average, and his changeup wasn't taking the step forward I wanted. However, he has seemed to settle in lately with a 4.05 SIERA, 14.3% K-BB%, and above-average Stuff+ and Location+. A big part of that has been that his curveball has improved in command and execution of late, which has done the job I wanted the changeup to do. With Mick Abel out for the season, Prielipp should remain in the rotation and is worth an add for his upside.

Landen Roupp - Giants

My recommendation to "buy" on Roupp is tepid. He's had a rough stretch on and off the field of late with a 5.96 ERA and just a 97 Stuff+ since May 15th. I don't think he's that bad of a pitcher, but I don't think he's as good as he was to begin the year. His stuff is not elite, but he has good command and has a pitch mix that can attack all four quadrants with sinkers and cutters up in the zone and changeups and curves at the bottom. I would treat him as a 12-team streamer, but if he were dropped in 15-team leagues during this stretch, I would add him back.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Sell

LEAGUE-WIDE AVERAGES FROM MAY 15th ON: SIERA (4.12), K-BB% (14%), STUFF+ (99), LOCATION+ (102)

NameIPERASIERAK-BB%Stuff+Location+
Andrew Abbott55.12.602414.8578390.09051797.4152104.0044
Eduardo Rodriguez542.1666674.5780640.10280490.92102110.9692
Brandon Young46.12.525184.3992580.11224595.83794102.448
Robbie Ray564.1785725.3096310.0504292.95177100.1241196
Peter Lambert593.5084754.6709980.10245990.18054100.0075
Nick Martinez57.23.2774574.7633420.10833398.54244105.1835
Sonny Gray60.22.0769233.4575730.193277103.474198.83682
J.T. Ginn63.23.1099484.3054060.11940390.83416100.0142
Eric Lauer28.13.4941184.8933030.08620788.29187104.3703
Michael McGreevy563.2142864.5247850.08771982.47284111.5541
Max Meyer552.4545453.6630080.18222298.07958103.994
Spencer Arrighetti513.5294118314.4652498740.11162899.2797851293.41139468
Kyle Leahy523.2884624.4502460.11160790.28183105.755
Shane McClanahan344.54.235770.124183107.893189.95665
Casey Mize342.3823533.2795950.2491.72773112.4134
Trey Yesavage623.6290324.6259140.110236108.891387.13747
Michael Wacha71.13.4065424.2700630.1206996.00412105.5264

There were a few pitchers who qualified that I didn't want to put on here because I don't think you should "Sell" them, but the leaderboard did tell us they wouldn't keep pitching to their impressive current surface-level stats. Guys like Sonny Gray, Chase Burns, Logan Webb, Max Meyer, Bryce Miller, and Gerrit Cole. Even with minor regression, they will all still be very useful starting pitchers for you. Zack Wheeler also made that list, and I think it was important to point out that his 3.37 SIERA is well above his 1.99 ERA. I can't believe he's pitching this week, so I might lean more towards the SIERA than the ERA going forward, but maybe I'm just a doubter.

There are also a few pitchers that you don't need a full breakdown for when I say that they won't keep pitching at this level. Peter Lambert has been a great streamer and has a 3.51 ERA since May 15th, but his Stuff+ grade and his 10.2% K-BB% are below average. He's a low-ceiling play that's better for 15-teamers. Kyle Leahy has a 3.29 ERA in 52 innings since May 15th, but he has well below average stuff and isn't missing many bats at all. It's not a surprise that he has a 4.45 SIERA over this stretch, but I'm not sure you can trade him for anything, so you're just going to ride this out. Same with his teammate Michael McGreevy, who got off to a hot start and has a 3.21 ERA since May 15th but also a 4.52 SIERA. His 82 Stuff+ grade and 8.7% K-BB% are some of the lowest of any pitcher on this entire list, but he makes up for it with a 111 Location+. That's just not a profile I can trust over the course of a full season because I think hitters are too good and start to take advantage of poor stuff. We've also seen Eric Lauer thrive with the Dodgers, and he has a 3.49 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. That comes with a 4.89 SIERA, just an 8.6% K-BB% and an 88 Stuff+ grade. I have Lauer in a few places and am just riding the decent production and good win totals with the Dodgers, but I'm not expecting this to last, and I would recommend you don't either.

Lastly, we all know that Eduardo Rodriguez is not as good as a 2.17 ERA over 54 innings since May 15th. However, I think his 4.58 SIERA is also too high. He's a solid pitcher who is really hitting his spots well right now, and we've seen him put together strong stretches of production throughout his career when he's doing this. We also need to acknowledge that his raw stuff has not gotten any better; it's arguably gotten worse, so if the locations were to start to worsen, we could see some blow-up outings. If you wanted to try and trade him now, I do think he's at peak value, but I also think most managers in your league know that as well, so you may as well ride it out.

Trey Yesavage - Blue Jays

I know people love Yesavage, and he was much hyped coming into this season, but I may use his good last start as a chance to trade him away. His 4.63 SIERA since May 15th is tied to his 87 Location+. Maybe it's the arm injury from earlier in the year or a larger issue for Yesavage, but his command is just not great. He has a limited pitch mix that relies a lot on his splitter, but remember that Yesavage also had an 11.3% walk rate and 1.43 WHIP in his 14 MLB innings in 2025 before the postseason. That's a really small sample size, but so was his postseason success. I think we put a little too much evidence in that postseason and ignored that he had a 15.3% walk rate in Triple-A last year.

Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

You may have dropped Arrighetti already. I did in our 12-team Rotoworld league, so I don't think you can find anybody to trade for him, but you can also just move on in shallower formats. He relies so heavily on his curveball for success that he has no room for error if that pitch is even average. His locations have not been great over the last six weeks, which is why we're seeing the results trend down. He very well could have a hot stretch again later in the summer, but in shallower formats, I don't think you need to hold and wait for that.

Andrew Abbott - Reds

Andrew Abbott could be the face of the underlying metrics versus surface-level stats conversation. For years, we had no idea how he was succeeding against MLB hitters, but he was. Then he was really bad to start this season, and that made some sense, but now he's back to pitching well. However, his 2.60 ERA since May 15th is not supported by his 4.86 SIERA, 9.1% K-BB%, or 97 Stuff+. I know that Abbott succeeds because his curve has proved really hard to hit, and he may always outpitch his peripherals, but I think this strong stretch is the perfect time to try and trade him away and not have to play this game.

Brandon Young - Orioles

I'm just not a believer in Young, and I covered why in detail in my streaming starting pitcher article last week. He has a decent fastball and locates well, but he doesn't miss bats and tries to live on getting weak contact in the zone. For me, that's just not a recipe for continued success at the MLB level unless you have elite locations or a truly deep pitch mix. Young doesn't have those things.

Robbie Ray - Giants

Ray has a 4.17 ERA since May 15th, which may cause you to feel some optimism, but I'd rather use that as a chance to try and trade him for something more stable. He seems to be all over the place from a pitch mix standpoint, leaning far into his sinker despite his four-seamer historically being the far better pitch. His Stuff+ grade is way down over this stretch, and he has just a 5% K-BB% because he's struggling through his pitch mix identity crisis. I'd rather not ride the identity crisis with him.

Nick Martinez - Rays

Coming into the season, you would have never trusted a 3.27 ERA from Martinez over 57.2 innings, but he has pitched well enough this year that I think people are starting to believe. In a 15-teamer, I have no problem holding onto him because he has just been consistent. However, his 4.76 SIERA is due to the fact that his 10.8% K-BB% is well below average and his Stuff+ is too. We know Martinez is not a guy with great raw stuff, and I really try to avoid holding onto pitchers whose K-BB% is so far below average. It's just too much contact allowed for me.

J.T. Ginn - Athletics

I like J.T. Ginn, and I've had him in a few places while he is pitching this well, but I think we always knew that a pitcher with a 21% strikeout rate who pitches in a brutal home park was a bit of a risk. Over his last four starts, we're starting to see some of those cracks. He has a 4.30 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 17% strikeout rate in those four starts, three of which came at home. Batters aren't crushing the ball off of him, but he is giving up a lot of contact and a few home runs. I'm not sure you can get much for him in a trade, but he's still a pitcher I would much rather start in good matchups on the road, and so that limits his fantasy use case for me.

Shane McClanahan - Rays

McLanahan has a 90 Location+ since May 15th, and that maybe shouldn't surprise us given all his past injuries. It's nice that he's back to throwing 96 mph, and that suggests his arm is healthy, but he also hasn't pitched in two years and hasn;t thrown over 115 innings since 2022. There's a good chance that he is starting to fatigue a bit, and that's impacting the locations, which has impacted his strikeouts since he doesn't have the pure stuff he did before. I don't think you HAVE to trade McClanahan because the stuff is improving, and if he gets the command back, he could have a nice run of production. However, I could see the logic in waiting for him to have a couple of good starts and then trade him away for somebody with slightly more reliable health in case the end of the season continues to be inconsistent for Sugar Shane.

Casey Mize - Tigers

I've never been a huge Mize fan, so maybe this is my bias, but his 2.38 ERA since May 15th comes with a 3.28 SIERA and 91 Stuff+. He is missing bats, and the splitter is back to looking like a really strong pitch, but his slider isn't getting whiffs, and even in his 10-strikeout game against the Yankees, he had just 13 total whiffs while getting 10 strikeouts. That's elite efficiency. Much like some of the other recommendations on here, this is not saying Mize is bad or that you need to move on. This is me saying that I still think his overall arsenal makes me think that he's more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher whose strikeout rate will come down to something closer to 24-25%. If you have somebody in your league who believes in his current level, I would entertain making that move.

Aaron Judge still waiting for more scans, no update on Yankees captain’s stress fracture in rib

NEW YORK — Aaron Judge is approaching four weeks since going on the injured list with a stress fracture of his right rib, but the New York Yankees captain has yet to have updated scans.

“I’ve got nothing for you,” Judge said before the Yankees faced the Tigers. “You know how it goes around here — guys can feel good, feel bad, but you’ve got to wait on images. I’ll give you a good update when we get some imaging.”

The three-time AL MVP has not played since May 31 and went on the injured list June 5 after a CT scan, an MRI and a meeting with a specialist.

When the Yankees put Judge on the IL, they said he would have limited activity before getting re-evaluated and having additional imaging in four to six weeks.

“There’s no need to talk about this now,” Judge said. “I know it’s an important topic and a big issue, but I want to give you guys the full story.”

The Yankees are 12-14 without Judge, who is hitting .248 with 17 homers and 38 RBIs. Judge had one homer in his final 18 games before getting sidelined and ended an 11-game homer and RBI drought with a game-ending, two-run drive on May 24 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York won nine of its first 13 games without Judge but are hitting .127 during a six-game losing streak.

“It’s not great,” Judge said. “It’s a little lack of focus. We got to dial it in.”

Including a stint on the COVID-19 injured list in July 2021, Judge is on the IL for the 10th time since debuting on Aug. 13, 2016. He missed 45 games with a fractured right wrist in 2018, 54 games with a strained left oblique in 2019 and 42 games with a fractured toe in 2023 after crashing into a wall while making a catch at Dodger Stadium.

In 2023, the Yankees went 19-23 while Judge was on the injured list. In 2019, they were 37-17 and 25-20 the previous season without him.

Judge is among six players on the IL, including Giancarlo Stanton (strained right calf). Ryan McMahon (throat infection) and Trent Grisham (strained right hamstring) are expected to return against Minnesota, though McMahon was scratched from a minor league rehab game because of food poisoning.

Baseball players propose limiting optional assignments to minors at 3 per season, down from 5

NEW YORK — Baseball players proposed that optional assignments to the minor leagues be cut from a maximum of five per season to three, aimed at reducing roster churn that teams use for their bullpen back ends in an era when relief pitchers throw an increased portion of games.

During a bargaining session Wednesday with Major League Baseball, the union also asked that active rosters be increased to 28 from 26 during the first 15 days of each season, including a maximum of 14 pitchers that would be up from the current 13.

Players also proposed the 60-day injured list open at the time of the November tender deadline rather than the first day players can report to spring training. The change would allow teams to protect more players from the Rule 5 draft during the winter meetings because players on the 60-day IL do not count against the 40-man roster limit.

The union asked that MLB agree to accelerate eligibility for the Rule 5 draft and to ensure the draft will be held this year, even if management locks out players after the current five-year labor contract expires Dec. 1.

It also wants pitchers to be credited with major league service time if they are optioned to the minors during the All-Star break or after a game in which they meet specified performance thresholds.

Players also want a guarantee of access to team performance and video data that is not proprietary.

Owners have proposed a salary cap for the first time since the 1994-95 strike that led to the first cancellation of the World Series in 90 years.

While a lockout next winter is expected, talks are not likely to intensify until late February or early March 2027, when the possibilities of losing regular-season games and revenue near. If regular-season games are lost, negotiations may become a standoff over which side can tolerate the most economic loss.