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Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers had another slightly underwhelming week, as they swept the Rockies in Colorado and won an extra-innings slugfest on Monday night in Las Vegas but ultimately dropped their series with the A’s. Elsewhere in the division, the bottom three teams (Pirates, Cubs, and Reds) struggled, but the Cardinals continue to surprise, as they’ve closed the gap in the division. The Brewers are now back home as they’ll welcome the Phillies and Guardians over the next week.

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Since most of the conversation lately seem to have zigged towards the Nolan Gorman question and somewhat the Riley O’Brien question, I decided to zag in another direction. My curiosity? Of the minor leagues prospects we’ve been watching, who has the most interesting pitch shape metrics (ie. the under the hood stuff)? We seem to be far enough into the season to have built up some stats that can stand up to Small Sample Size (SSS) scrutiny. Since I do the daily down on the Farm Reports, I see the various pitcher usage and line score results every day. That has made me curious about some things that might be going on beyond the line score.

That real-time curiosity met up with a longer-term, nagging deficiency in my knowledge set. It goes like this: Every so often as prospect watcher like @KareemSSN will post an interesting tidbit on a pitcher with stuff I find really cool. He is pretty good at explaining things, but one of things that has frustrated me is I can look at a chart like this and lack the context of what is good, what is bad and what is irrelevant and I have to re-remember all that and I can’t find a reliable source for reference. So I set out to build my own reference, so when something like this pops up, I can open my reference card and interpolate if an SI spin of 2038 with an HB of 13.7 is good, bad or irrelevant. In this case, it’s not great, but very relevant to gauging a Slider’s potential effectiveness.

I’m going to start with a set of numbers similar to what is above, although I can’t help myself and add a few and delete some others. I’m going to pull all the pitch data for our Low-A and AAA pitching prospects and see who has elite level metrics in any of the categories. I will be dropping VREL, Ext and Chase and add in some expected performance measures like xwOBA, xBA, along with actual measures like K and BB rate.

My first crack at this will be to discover which Low-A pitchers have top 10th percentile metrics. This is a “who has a tool that sticks out” kind of question. For those pitchers with a notable metric, I will show a comparison not only to their league, but AAA and MLB standards for the same metric. For fun, I will also include a notable non-Cardinal prospect in the analysis (Seth Hernandez) to give some context to some of the numbers you will see.

A couple of quick notes on the data:

1. The data comes from Baseball Savant (probably not surprising). The minor league side only has data for Low-A and AAA pitchers, so my research will unfortunately exclude High-A and AA pitchers. We have to wait for Liam Doyle to get to Memphis before we get to look under the hood.
2. I’d love to use Chase%, but I can not find it in the exported set that comes from Savant. If anyone has any pointers, let me know.
3. I arbitrarily set a cut off at 50 pitches … any pitcher with less than 50 pitches in that league is excluded. It helped make the data manageable, and also smoothed out most major league rehab pitchers. I’m not comparing prospects to veteran MLB pitchers, I’m comparing them to their peers.
4. The vertical and horizontal movement ranks are non-intuitive. Whereas a low xBA is good (top 10th percentile) and a high xBA is bad (bottom 10th percentile), when it comes to direction, either extreme can be good, depending on the pitch type. For example, a high positive on the horizontal axis on a Sinker (SI) can produce a top 10th percentile, whereas a high negative on the same axis coupled with a Slider (SL) can produce a bottom 10th percentile result, which is equally good, given the pitch type.

Low-A Metric Leader Board

The above table depicts 12 Palm Beach (Low-A) pitches who have at least one pitch metric in the top 10th percentile of their league. These represent the tools the Cardinals have to work with and develop.

The thirteen pitcher is a proxy – Seth Hernandez. If you’ve never heard of him, you will. He is what scouts dream of when it comes to pitch metrics:

• (FF) Four seam fastball that has top 10th percentile in velo AND horizontal movement
• (SL) Slider with top tenth percentile in whiff rate and horizontal movement
• (CH) with top tenth spin rate and whiff rate

With that primer, let’s look at Cardinal Low-A prospects:

• Alex Breckheimer has elite command with his four seamer w/ a top 10th percentile walk rate.
• Cade Crossland’s spin rate and horizontal break on his change-up (CH) are top 10th. His curve (CU) has elite whiff rate and elite horizontal break (90th percentile). This is one of those counter-intuitive ones where the large negative number is a great number. In an odd one, his slider (SL) has a really odd outlier horizontal break – it breaks into RH hitters. That will need fixing.
• Antoni Cuello has top 10th horizontal break on his FF and SL, and has a superior K rate with that slider. It is a put away pitch.
• Dylan Driessen has top 10th percentile induced vertical break on this 4-seam fastball (FF). I always get this backwards but I think this means it has “ride” or “hop” to it. He also has exceptional command over his slider (SL).
• Kaden Echemann has an even better curve (CU) that Crossland with 16” of downward break. Memories of Uncle Charlie with this one.
• Jack Martinez has unusual break on his slider. It doesn’t miss bats, and walks lots of guys, so I don’t see this 10th percentile rating as all that helpful.
• Jacob Odle carries top tenth percentile on both his FF. He had one of the hardest curves in the league, too, before he advanced to High-A.
• John Shelagowski has elite horizontal break on his FF and has elite and near-elite characteristics on his slider (SL).
• Tyler Van Dyke’s FF really rides in on RH batter, with a high K and low walk rate (the velo itself is pedestrian). He also carries very good command characteristics on his SL.
• Ethan Young carries top tenth percentile characteristics on his SI, CH and FF. Looks a little like Seth Hernandez, huh?

Performance Matters

Stuff (and the underlying metrics which show it) are one thing. Performance is another. Which pitchers (in Low-A Palm Beach) are getting the most out of their stuff? Let’s look more at performance outcomes as see how they rate.

In the above table, you will see many of the same names and pitches, this time with how those pitches are performing in real games. There are few new names, as some guys without top 10th percentile stuff are still getting top tenth percentile results, such as Nelfy Ynfante, who really limits hard contact without any top tier stuff.

Some notes:

• Crossland’s change and curve perform well. Sure enough, that odd slider does not.
• Odle’s FF seems to perform a bit worse that the metrics suggest it should.
• Van Dyke’s command sets him apart.
• Jack Martinez seems to get more out of his FF that the metrics suggest he should.
• Ethan Young, with 4 pitches on this chart, should become a name to remember. How many low-A pitchers do you remember that already have 4 average or better offerings?

Summary

So I’m ending this just with Low-A pitchers. Round 2 will include AAA pitchers, in similar format, depending on how commenters react to this first go. This hopefully provides you with some names to watch for, some reasons to watch for them and some explanation about why these guys keep getting used in priority situations.

Closing

Oh, yeah. Remember that cheat sheet I keep looking for to remember what is a really good pitch metric…like for when someone tell us so-and-so’s sinker (SI) breaks arm side 18”. Is that good? Is it elite? Below is an MLB chart and indeed, anything above 17.9” is top tenth percentile. This is for all pitchers in the MLB in 2026.

One interesting thing I think I see in this data. There really doesn’t seem to be a lot a difference in top tenth pitch metrics (spin rate, horizontal break, etc.) between Low-A and MLB. Is that a reasonable look? That tells me that location, command and sequencing is what they learn coming up the ladder, but the raw materials are pretty much in place in Low-A. Valid observation?

Long-term, I might spiff this up by blanking out more irrelevant columns. For example, percentile rank is not crucial for velocity on a Knuckle Curve. For most breaking/off speed pitches, the offset from the FF/SI is more crucial, as well as the spin direction (which isn’t in the data set, as far as I can tell).

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

The path to getting there might not have been ideal, but the Orioles salvaged a split with the Mariners in the opening series of their seven-game homestand. The O’s have snapped a four-game losing streak by winning their last two, taking last night’s finale by a 7-5 score. A six-run third inning did the heavy lifting for the Birds, who held on despite Kyle Bradish’s second straight lousy start thanks to a great effort by the bullpen. Check out Alex Church’s recap of all the action.

The O’s are right back where they started the homestand, at four games under .500. It’s not exactly where they want to be. Things could be better. But they could also be worse! #analysis

The Orioles arguably could have won all four games of the series. Both of their losses were by one or two runs, and if just one or two things had gone differently in each game, the O’s could’ve made a huge statement with a sweep of the first-place Mariners. But baseball doesn’t work that way, especially not 2026 Orioles baseball. Even in their almost-wins, they keep making some dumb mistakes, like Blaze Alexander getting thrown out to erase a potential sac fly on Monday, or Gunnar Henderson first-pitch hacking into a groundout with the bases loaded in a tie game in the ninth on Tuesday.

We’ve seen what the Orioles can look like when they’re firing on all cylinders. They’ve got the talent to go on an extended run, but most of the time the biggest obstacle they need to overcome is themselves. The fundamental mistakes — sloppy defense, sloppy baserunning, failures with RISP — are holding them back. If they clean up some of that stuff more consistently, they can certainly make a postseason push in an American League that has very few dominant teams.

For now, the O’s will try to extend their modest winning streak as they welcome the Padres to Camden Yards for the first time since 2024, when San Diego took two of three. The Pads have a winning record overall but have been struggling for a couple of weeks now, just 4-12 in their last 16 games. Their offense in particular has struggled badly, nobody more so than former Oriole Manny Machado, who’s hitting .172 with a .597 OPS.

This series is the Orioles’ for the taking, and a good opportunity for the Birds to inch closer to that elusive .500 mark. Will it happen? It’s hard to predict anything with this team.

Links

Rutschman makes impactful return to lineup, Cowser and Alonso homer, Wells comes to rescue in Orioles’ 7-5 win (updated) – School of Roch

It’s great to have Adley back! But also, uh, what exactly is happening in that photo?

Should Orioles manager Craig Albernaz be more demonstrative with umpires? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

It does seem like Albernaz isn’t particularly expressive with umps when arguing calls. Then again, he is still recovering from taking a baseball off the face a couple months ago. I’d probably be trying to avoid any unnecessary facial movement, too.

Jon Meoli: Cut a year ago by Seattle, Leody Taveras has turned his career around with the Orioles – The Baltimore Banner

Every year it seems there’s some journeyman veteran who makes the O’s roster as an afterthought and ends up being a much bigger contributor than expected. Leody Taveras is that guy.

Pham plans to opt out of Minors deal with O’s (source) – MLB.com

(monotone voice) No. Wait. Don’t go. How will we ever survive?

In his return to majors with the Angels, Trey Mancini authors another comeback story – The Athletic

A great story from Ken Rosenthal about the beloved former Oriole, who just made it back to the majors for the first time since 2023 after nearly retiring earlier this season. I’ll be rooting hard for Trey, and I don’t think I’m the only one.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! You share your day with two former Orioles: Baltimore-born outfielder Damon Buford (56) and catcher Dave Skaggs (75).

On this date in 1986, Orioles DH Juan Beníquez hit three home runs in one game, an especially unlikely feat considering that he hit only six in his entire O’s career. The O’s lost the game anyway, 7-5, to the Yankees.

On this date in 2004, in the first game of a doubleheader at Camden Yards, the Orioles’ Rafael Palmeiro hit his 536th and 537th career homers while the Giants’ Barry Bonds hit his 675th. It marked only the third time in MLB history that two members of the 500-homer club went deep in the same game. Once again, the O’s lost, 9-6, in 11 innings.

Random Orioles game of the day

On June 12, 2006, the Orioles beat the Blue Jays in Toronto, 6-4. Starter Kris Benson delivered a quality start, working six innings and giving up three runs, all of them coming on a pair of Alex Ríos homers. His battery mate, Ramón Hernández, went 3-for-5 and was a triple shy of the cycle to lead a well-balanced O’s offense. Chris Ray got the save in the ninth despite giving up a homer to former and future Oriole Gregg Zaun. The win improved the O’s to 30-35, but they never got even within five games of .500 again for the rest of the season.

The Detroit Tigers wrapped up their homestand on Thursday afternoon with an 11-0 shellacking of the Minnesota Twins to give the team its seventh win in nine tries so far in June. Already, AJ Hinch and Co. have exceeded their win total for May with just under 2/3 of the month remaining.

Not too shabby.

Now, the Motor City Kitties hit the road for another big series against a fellow American League Central rival — the Cleveland Guardians — starting on Friday night at Progressive Field. The Guards have experienced an opposite level of success in June, winning just three of their nine games so far while bringing a four-game losing streak into the weekend that includes a three-game sweep at home against the New York Yankees.

The Tigers will open up with right-hander Jack Flaherty, who was cruising through five innings against the Seattle Mariners last time out before getting knocked out in the sixth. The 30-year-old’s final line saw him surrender three runs on six hits and a walk while striking out seven over five frames in what eventually turned out to be a 5-4 victory for Detroit.

Flaherty last faced Cleveland in the 2025 AL Wildcard series, in which he gave his team 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball on three hits and two walks while striking out four in a 6-3 team win.

Up against him for the Guardians will be fellow righty Tanner Bibee, who is coming off his best start of the year on the road against the Texas Rangers. The 27-year-old gave his team eight frames of shutout ball on three hits and two walks while striking out just three to earn his first and only win of the 2026 campaign.

That effort just barely outdid his previous performance against Detroit this season back on May 20, when he also went eight innings, surrendering just one run on four hits and a walk while striking out three. However, the Olde English D ultimately prevailed that day in 10 innings, 3-2.

Take a look below at how the two match up on Friday night.

Detroit Tigers (29-40) vs. Cleveland Guardians (37-33)

Time (ET): 7:10 p.m.
Place: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 70: RHP Jack Flaherty (1-7, 5.31 ERA) vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (1-7, 4.09 ERA)

FLAHERTY

BIBEE

The Phillies now head to Wisco for a set against the Brewers. I’ve heard that actual Wisconsinites never say “Wisco”. Is that true? As you can tell (or maybe not?) from my use of the term, I am not from Wisconsin.

Onto the links.

Phillies news

The Phillies are going to have some All-Stars for the hometown All-Star Game. But how many?

Look! Who’s over there, cresting that Hill? Why, it’s the newest Phillie.

Jhoan Duran has done a lot of work for the Phillies. Here’s how he keeps himself ready to do it. ($)

Cristopher Sánchez followed in the footsteps of Grover Cleveland Alexander, then surpassed him. ($)

MLB news

Shohei Ohtani left last night’s contest early with an injury…

…and so did Justin Wrobleski.

Tarik Skubal is returning to the Tigers on Saturday.

Aroldis Chapman wants an apology from Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It’s mock draft season!

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Damon Buford, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1939 – In front of a record crowd of 23,864 fans at Ruppert Stadium in Newark, NJ, Lou Gehrig plays his last game in a Yankee uniform when he participates in an exhibition contest against the Kansas City Blues, the team’s American Association farm club. The “Iron Horse”, playing only three innings and batting eighth, grounds out weakly to second base in his only at-bat, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

• 1880 Worcester Ruby Legs pitcher Lee Richmond throws the first perfect game in MLB history in a 1-0 win over the Cleveland Blues at the Agricultural County Fair Grounds in Worcester
• 1928 – Lou Gehrig of the New York Yankees collects 14 total bases with two triples and two home runs in a 15-7 victory over the Chicago White Sox.
• 1970 – Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Dock Ellis no-hits the San Diego Padres, 2-0. Ellis receives all his support on two home runs by Willie Stargell. Ellis will later claim that he was suffering from the after-effects of his previous night’s LSD trip while pitching this gem.
• 1975 – Oakland Athletics outfielder Billy Williams hits his 400th career home run.
• 1990 MLB Oakland A’s outfielder Rickey Henderson becomes the second to steal 900 bases.
• 1990 Orioles Cal Ripken plays in his 1,308th consecutive game to move past Everett Scott into second place on the all-time list.
• 2010 – Derek Jeter homers twice and Jorge Posada hits a grand slam in New York’s 9-3 win over Houston. 

Cubs Birthdays:Hunter Bigge, Aaron Civale, Sean Newcomb, Dallas Beeler, Damon Buford*, Bob Thorpe, Jack Cusick, Otto Knabe, John Stedronsky. Also notable: Bill Foster HOF.

Today in history:

• 1923 – Harry Houdini frees himself from a straight jacket while suspended upside down, 40 feet (12 m) above ground in NYC.
• 1930 – German boxer Max Schmeling beats Jack Sharkey by disqualification in 4 rounds in NYC for vacant NBA, NYSAC, The Ring and lineal heavyweight titles; first time title won on a foul.
• 1931 – Al Capone is indicted on 5,000 counts of prohibition violations and perjury.
• 1979 – Kevin St Onge throws a playing card a record 185 ft-1 inch; record broken in 1992.
• 1981 – Larry Holmes TKOs Leon Spinks in 3 for WBC heavyweight boxing title.
• 1987 – US President Ronald Reagan challenges Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down” the Berlin wall.
• 2008 – Patrick Kane receives the Calder Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year.

Today in music history:

• 1909 – “Shine On, Harvest Moon” by Ada Jones & Billy Murray hits #1.
• 1965 – Queen Elizabeth’s Birthday Honours List names The Beatles as MBEs (Members of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire); dozens of past winners return medals in protest.
• 1966 – Dave Clark Five sets record as they appear for 12th time on “The Ed Sullivan Show.”
• 1970 – Rocker and blues singer Janis Joplin debuts in Kentucky.
• 1990 – Mariah Carey‘s self-titled debut album is released.
• 1993 – “Three Little Pigs” by Green Jelly hits #17.
• 2008 – Coldplay release their 4th studio album ” Viva la Vida or Death” (winner of 3 Grammys).

*pictured.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are addressing some season-long problems in the bullpen by calling up number seven prospect Antwone Kelly ahead of this weekend’s series against the Miami Marlins.

The 22-year-old right-hander had a 4.50 ERA and a 1.481 WHIP at Triple-A Indianapolis this season, which are hardly sparkling numbers, but as the team continues to middle along with a 4.45 ERA as a bullpen, some reinforcement arms were needed. He did pitch over 100 innings last year with a 3.02 ERA, which helped his cause.

Kelly has a fastball that reaches triple digits and averages 97.6 mph in the Minors, and he also employs a change-up and a cutter. He began the year in the starting rotation for Indianapolis, but was then moved to the bullpen.

The 20th-ranked Pirates bullpen needs all the help they can get, having two major blowups within the past week, giving up a 10-run inning to the Los Angeles Dodgers and blowing 9-5 eighth inning lead to the Houston Astros. The bullpen seems to be getting worse, not better, which is why some fresh bullpen arms were needed. Whether Aruban native Kelly is part of the answer or not remains to be seen, but we’ll be set to find out this weekend against the Marlins.

The Bucs have three home games against Miami this weekend, playing Friday at 6:40pm, Saturday at 4:05pm and Sunday at 12:15pm. We’ll see Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Paul Skenes taking the mound this weekend as starters. Once we get to the bullpen, there’s a good chance Kelly makes his debut. Stay tuned.