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The next step in profiling Seattle’s shot at defending their AL West throne, and a potential American League pennant bid, comes on the other side of the ball. Seattle’s pitching staff has the easiest task in the sport, in the sense that their hitters face the toughest task. T-Mobile Park, with its predictable dimensions, chilly climate, and SABR-worthy peculiarities in eye of the batting beholder, is a welcoming place for hurlers. But make no mistake, this projects as a worthy group in their own right, as Seattle is joined by only the Dodgers and Blue Jays to have both hitters and pitchers projected in the top-7 of the sport by FanGraphs wins above replacement.

Anchors (complimentary) of the 2021-2024 Seattle Mariners, in 2025 the starting rotation was at times an anchor (derogatory) to the club’s efforts. While a 3.97/4.02/4.03 ERA/FIP/xERA is no great catastrophe as a starting staff, plenty of the club’s numbers fell short of the standard set by this group. A drop of over 60 innings pitched was most damning, with all but Luis Castillo missing time with injury at one point or another among the top five arms from 2024. Bryce Miller will almost certainly open the season on the injured list, and Logan Evans is sidelined with Tommy John to chip into the depth further.

I’ll skip the panic brake pumping and slam the pedal down here, however. Seattle’s rotation is a huge strength, and is poised for a better showing than a season ago to pair with the improved lineup. Bryan Woo’s breakout was a blessing for the M’s, not only for his excellence but an astounding rate of efficiency. The buttery righty is poised to glide through bats once more in his age 26 campaign, even if he’ll likely face a bit more batted ball fortune on occasion than his lifetime .246 BABIP to this point in nearly 400 innings… right? While George Kirby sought to diversify his targets somewhat, Woo relentlessly pounded the zone at a rate surpassing his famously walk-thrifty teammate. Kirby’s biggest question mark is largely superficial: what impact does his lower arm slot have? The righty seems intent on working the edges more, forcing hitters into disadvantageous swings instead of relentlessly pounding the zone. This is a pathway to more strikeouts and, hopefully, better performance away from T-Mobile Park for Kirby in particular, but it’s likely we’ll see an uptick in free passes, albeit hopefully worth the added K’s.

Castillo and Gilbert have the least to alter headed into 2026. For The Rock, it’s mostly a battle against time and a workload that is an outlier in this era. No longer needed to be the ace, Castillo is a lynchpin for Seattle’s efforts all the same, as his capacity to deliver six quality innings every fifth game eases the burden on the bullpen and is a luxury few clubs can boast. Gilbert, despite a halting campaign at times a season ago, is pursuing the same goal as Kirby from the opposite end. Despite great velocity, Gilbert’s four-seam fastball is a get-ahead offering but not a strikeout one. His splitter took over the slack for the deterioration of his slider, seemingly a side effect of his injury issues in 2026. Now sporting the slider and a refreshed cutter, Gilbert’s target is the 200 inning mark he eclipsed in 2024.

The depth will receive some greater shine tomorrow, but suffice to say Emerson Hancock cannot be given much chance in the bullpen as he was late in 2025. While the Georgia righty saw some promise there in short stints, if the M’s hope to avoid the return of the likes of Luis F. Castillo, they’ll hope Hancock can fill in most ably. He is, particularly at home, a fine option in a pinch. Too much, however, and the bullpen could be strained.

That bullpen’s capacity for strain will look familiar at the season’s outset, although more hale than this time a year ago. The back five of the ‘pen introduce southpaw Jose A. Ferrer, the return in the Harry Ford deal with the Nationals whose knack for groundballs will be a test for a Mariners infield that’s not prioritized defensive prowess in its construction. Still, joined by Speier, Bazardo, Brash, and Muñoz, the M’s can boast one of the better pathways from the 6th-9th in MLB. Likely, Seattle hopes to get to bounce back and forth on days between their five most potent arms, keeping 2-3 fresh per night as often as possible. 

The presumed final three also serve that purpose in the inverse. Carlos Vargas, Casey Legumina, and Cooper Criswell all lack minor league options, hence their inclusion on this list, but only Criswell seems assured his role given his capacity for long relief and strong showing this spring.

Vargas and Legumina have been given ample opportunities in Seattle but have found mixed results, leaving hard-throwing righties Cole Wilcox and Yosver Zulueta windows to crack the club. Both hurlers, as well as the M’s bevy of 40-man relievers, have minor league options remaining, leaving them likeliest to begin the season in Triple-A Tacoma as a tiebreaker.

For Seattle to repeat as AL West champions, the pitching staff will need to improve upon a season ago. The most straightforward path is greater durability and performance from the rotation, easing the load on arms like Bazardo whose workload was, particularly by the end of the playoffs, Herculean. The M’s are positioned to be among the best in baseball on both sides of the ball. That’s what good teams do, and your Seattle Mariners are a good team.

The Phillies’ starting rotation was very good in 2025. They led the majors in wins above replacement and had the second lowest ERA (with the lowest FIP). They also had quality depth, as they were able to withstand injuries to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that caused them to miss large chunks of the season. But heading into camp this year, there were reasons to believe they wouldn’t be able to match that performance in 2026, and the rotation might actually turn out to be a weakness.

There was plenty of confidence in the top of the rotation where Cristopher Sanchez has established himself as an ace and Jesus Luzardo looks like a very capable number two, provided that he’s past his injury history. (Based on the extension the Phillies gave him, they certainly seem to think so).

After that, things started to get a little murky. Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season, and Ranger Suarez took a hefty payday and went to Boston. (Good for him, but I was okay with not paying him since he can’t seem to get through a full season healthy.) That left the Phillies with Nola, Andrew Painter, and Taijuan Walker in the Opening Day rotation, and there was uncertainty about all of them.

Nola had an awful 2025, spending much of it on the Injured List, and wasn’t very good most of the time when he did pitch. Painter, in his return from Tommy John surgery had poor numbers in the minors. And Walker is Walker: While he pitched adequately in 2025, he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the year before.

Even more troubling was the lack of depth. With the trade of Mick Abel last year, there doesn’t appear to be anyone in the minors ready to step up and pitch well if the need arises. (To be fair, at this time last year, Abel looked like a failed prospect himself.)

While we should only place so much stock in what we see during the spring, there are signs that things are breaking in the Phillies direction.

Nola came into camp with increased velocity and pitched well in the WBC. If you buy into the “even year Nola” phenomenon, then we could see Nola pitch like he did in 2024 when he received Cy Young Award votes.

The last few starts from Aaron Nola have been incredibly encouraging.

The uptick in velocity looks legit, his body's moving a bit more efficiently and truly commanding every pitch. His arm slot has changed a bit: dropped it a bit/releasing further from his body/lower rel.… pic.twitter.com/3iEAnp0xak

— Joseph Cammisa (@jmcammisa) March 17, 2026

Painter hasn’t yet looked like the future ace we were once promised, but his Spring performance has at least indicated that he can be a viable part of a good rotation this season. There are still questions about his ability to pitch deeper into games, but that’s the case for most pitchers in April these days. He likely won’t see past the fifth inning much -if at all – in the early part of the season.

Walker has looked great this spring, giving up just one run across three appearances, and an additional three scoreless innings pitching for Mexico in the WBC. Given his track record, it’s tough to expect too much from him, but he at least looks like he can once again be a serviceable starter when the team needs him.

Taijuan Walker this spring:

2/26 vs. WSH
2.0 IP | 3 H | 1 ER | 0 BB | 1 K

3/3 vs. ARI
2.1 IP | 2 H | 0 ER | 2 BB | 2 K

3/8 vs. Brazil
3.1 IP | 0 H | 0 ER | 2 BB | 3 K

3/15 vs. ATL
5.0 IP | 3 H | 0 ER | 2 BB | 3 K pic.twitter.com/cUF5cHB9Ek

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) March 15, 2026

In perhaps the best news of the spring, Wheeler has reportedly made great progress in his return from surgery. He’s ahead of schedule and might be back in the Phillies’ rotation in May.

Things are going so well that Phillies will put Zack Wheeler on an official rehab assignment Saturday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Three innings.

— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) March 23, 2026

There’s obviously a lot that could go wrong: Nola might go back to having frequent mid-inning meltdowns and giving up multiple home runs in every start. (To be fair, he gives up a fair share of home runs in his good seasons too.) Painter might be Spencer Howard 2.0 in that he can’t maintain top velocity for more than a couple of innings. Walker might not be able to overcome his lack of stuff and revert to being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And even if he makes it back to the majors, Wheeler might never regain his form that made him one of the best pitchers in the game.

That doesn’t even get into the inevitable injuries that can – and likely will – happen. An injury to either Sanchez or Luzardo would be tough to overcome, and the thought of seeing the likes of Bryse Wilson or Alan Rangel making multiple starts is not a comforting one.

But don’t forget that there’s also a lot that can go right, and based on what we’ve seen this spring, there’s reason to believe that the Phillies will once again have one of the best rotations in baseball.

In a really sad piece of news, the Nationals announced that Josiah Gray has been placed on the 60-Day IL with a Flexor Strain. This is a crushing setback for Gray, who has missed pretty much all of the last two seasons due to Tommy John. Now, the right hander is dealing with yet another arm injury.

The Nationals have made the following roster moves:

-Selected the contract of LHP Cionel Pérez
-Placed RHP Paxton Schultz on the 15-day IL (retro to 3/22) with right elbow inflammation
-Recalled RHP Josiah Gray and placed Gray on the 60-day IL (retro to 3/22) with a right flexor…

— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) March 23, 2026

After being sent to Triple-A, and seemingly being healthy, the Nats dropped this bomb on us yesterday. The team’s 2023 All-Star will be back on the shelf until at least late May due to this injury. At this point, you have to worry about Gray’s future after all of these injuries. 

Before this Tommy John Surgery, Gray was relatively durable in the minors and his early big league career. He made 28 starts in 2022 and 30 in 2023. However, he has only made two starts since then. 

A Flexor Strain was actually what started all of this. That was Gray’s original diagnosis when he went down in April of 2024. However, he eventually had to go under the knife and missed the rest of that season and all of 2025. Now, he is facing a brutal full circle moment.

Hopefully, this Flexor Strain does not lead to another big surgery and is just a relatively minor set back. If you want to be optimistic, we saw Cade Cavalli have a bumpy Tommy John recovery and now he is starting on Opening Day. Hopefully, we can see that sort of come back from Gray.

It is a real bummer for Gray, who was clearly so happy to be back on the field. He said he felt healthy for most of this spring, despite his velocity not being at pre-surgery levels. Maybe that drop in velocity should have been more of a red flag, but the rest of his arsenal looked sharp. Gray also seemed confident that the velocity would eventually come back.

The Nationals have placed Josiah Gray on the 60-day IL with a right flexor strain. Gray, who hasn’t pitched since April 2024, was healthy this spring and optimistic after being optioned to AAA last week. This has to be a crushing blow to him.

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) March 23, 2026

The hope is that Gray can come off the IL after the initial 60 days, but even if he does, the road back to the big leagues will be long. He was going to start the year in AAA anyway, but now he will need even more reps in the minors after the injury setback. 

At this point, you have to wonder if we will ever see that 2023 version of Gray ever again. He is going to miss basically two and a half years at this point. Between the wear and tear on the arm and the rust, it will be a tough road back for the righty. Gray seems like a high character guy, so I have faith that he will put the work in.

However, this news makes that Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade look even worse. In hindsight, that move set the Nats back at least five years. They traded two franchise cornerstones for Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. Between the injuries to Gray and that unfortunate extension to Ruiz, that deal is aging like milk.

This trade really set the Nats back years https://t.co/zyFaTJWtO5

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) March 23, 2026

Even if the Dodgers did not win a championship with those two, they easily won that deal. Scherzer was fantastic for them down the stretch and Turner played some of the best ball of his career in LA. That trade kicked off the Nats rebuild, and immediately put things on the wrong foot.

You can pin some of that on injuries to Gray and Ruiz, but they also just were not as good as they were expected to be. Both seem like high character guys, but the production just has not been there. Maybe, the Nats should have been more honest with themselves and went for higher upside guys who may have been further from the big leagues. Instead, they tried to get big league ready players with hopes of a quick retool.

Now, the Nats have to rebuild the rebuild. This trade is one of the biggest reasons why that is happening, along with poor drafting. I am gutted for Gray, but there is some symbolism in this move. Hopefully, Josiah Gray can bounce back and become a cog in the middle of the Nats rotation again.

With the 2026 Spring Breakout Series coming to an end, MLB Pipeline released their All-Spring Breakout Teams, with a pair of Atlanta Braves prospects making the first team. John Gil made it as the third baseman, which is the position he played in the game, while Garrett Baumann was one of six pitchers selected to the first team.

Check out the All-Spring Breakout First and Second Teams: https://t.co/yuQpi3jboepic.twitter.com/DQWiDl89xh

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 23, 2026

Gil, who went one for three with a homer, walk, and hit by pitch, scored twice and batted in a pair of runs against the Yankees team. Baumann went three innings without allowing a hit or walk and struck out five on just 31 pitches on Saturday night.

This honor for Gil and Baumann comes after both players enjoyed strong springs that have given them a slight up arrow on their prospect status heading into their 2026 seasons. Both of these guys are candidates to open the season in Double-A, and with strong seasons could potentially earn the right to make their big league debuts in the near future.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rangers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Okay folks…spring training is over, Opening Day is two days away, the season is about to kick off.

We are doing one last win total poll heading into the season.

How many regular season games will the 2026 Texas Rangers win?

Cast your vote below…

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

It’s crazy how time flies. I can remember pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training like it was yesterday, and now we’re on the eve of Opening Day! Furthermore, it feels like just last week that we asked the fanbase to evaluate general manager Brian Cashman and the offseason moves that he oversaw, when it fact it’s been a month-and-a-half since we ran our offseason grading poll.

Sitting on the doorstep of the 2026 season, we felt it was the perfect opportunity to take the fanbase’s temperature one last time before meaningful games get underway.

This was one of the busiest spring training periods in recent memory between the World Baseball Classic and normal Grapefruit League schedule. The tournament was a resounding success, with Venezuela narrowly defeating Team USA to secure their first ever WBC crown. Attendance and broadcast records were smashed, with several Yankees representing their nations, including Aaron Judge as captain of Team USA.

There were plenty of developments at the spring training complex as well. Much of the noise coming out of Tampa centered on a trio of exciting prospects. Spencer Jones continued his habit of demolishing spring training pitching, slashing .333/.429/.917 with four home runs, eight RBIs, three stolen bases, a 14.3-percent walk rate and encouraging 28.6-percent strikeout rate, and 227 wRC+ in 28 plate appearances spanning 11 games. Top pitching prospect Elmer Rodríguez affirmed that he is the most polished of the Yankees’ farm arms, making a pair of starts and allowing two runs in six innings without giving up a home run and showcasing his command of a deep arsenal.

However, it was electric pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange who stole headlines, emerging as one of if not the most exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball. He largely dominated opposing major league hitters with his high octane fastball that touched as high as 103 mph, displaying the improvements in command he’s made over the last year. Shelling at the hand of the Cubs notwithstanding, Lagrange’s performances caught the eye of the major league coaching staff, and it’s not out of the question that he could impact the big league club this year. All three prospects were optioned to minor league camp, but their strong springs have positioned each for a potential call-up should reinforcements be needed.

The last week has seen the team finalize the active roster. Jasson Domínguez and Oswaldo Cabrera were optioned to Triple-A while non-roster invitee Randal Grichuk was tendered a major league contract and Rule 5 draftee Cade Winquest still has a chance to break camp with the team. The Yankees acquired Angel Chivilli and Max Schuemann to provide depth in the bullpen and infield, respectively, but promptly optioned the pair to the minors as they give reps at shortstop to Ryan McMahon and are pondering the selection of Brent Headrick’s contract.

The biggest story in terms of roster construction in recent days, however, concerns the starting rotation. Aaron Boone hinted at the possibility of a four-man rotation for the first two turns with the Yankees having four offdays in the first two weeks, including reaffirming their commitment to offseason trade acquisition Ryan Weathers as a member of the rotation despite his rocky spring. This opens the door to the Yankees optioning Luis Gil to Triple-A to open the year, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year hitting the lowest of lows and highest of highs in his final two spring starts.

Speaking of the rotation, there is plenty of reason to be encouraged. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are on time if not ahead of schedule with their throwing programs, the former even making a spring start and reaching as high as 99 mph with his fastball. Will Warren looks to have taken a massive step over the offseason following an up-and-down rookie campaign and was the Yankees’ most consistent starter in spring. Cam Schlittler emerged from an early spring injury scare to look like the pitcher who dominated after his second half call-up.

As for the offense, it’s the exact same group that finished last season. The Yankees kept their starting outfield intact in retaining Trent Grisham on the qualifying offer and bringing Cody Bellinger back into the fold for five years and $162.5 million. It’s fair to criticize the Yankees’ lack of ambition in running it back with the same starting nine, but this was the best offense in baseball last year by runs per game and wRC+ and projects to place in the top-five in terms of runs scored and offensive wins.

It is therefore no surprise that a pair of projection systems have the Yankees as one of the two or three best teams in the AL. FanGraphs projects that they will win the division with the second-most wins (87) in the AL behind the Mariners and the third best playoff odds (70.2-percent) behind the Mariners and Tigers. PECOTA predicts that they will finish second behind the Blue Jays, but still with the third-most wins (88) and third-best playoff odds (67.3-percent) behind Toronto and Seattle.

So now I would like to turn it over to you. How far do you think the Yankees will go in 2026? Can they make it back to the World Series after their early postseason exit last year? Will they miss out on the playoffs entirely? Additionally, we ask that you let us know whether you approve of the job Yankees GM Brian Cashman has done this spring in finalizing the roster. Vote in our polls below:

Linda Surovich: Carson Benge wins ROTY

During the offseason, David Stearns announced that Carson Benge would be given a chance to compete for a spot on the major league roster during spring training. A spot cleared on the roster for him with Brandon Nimmo’s departure and Juan Soto moving to left field this season. The stars were aligning for Benge to seize a roster spot and, so far, he has done nothing to cast doubt in anyone’s mind that he belongs on this team. All he has done is hit and it is his elite hit tool that has earned him the status as the team’s top offensive prospect. Of course, the number one prospect in the organization is Nolan McLean who will also undoubtedly be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but I am predicting that all of Benge’s tools, both offensively and defensively, will be enough to take McLean down for the award.

Brian Salvatore: Kodai Senga posts an ERA below 2.50

One of the biggest follies in baseball prediction is presuming past performance will repeat despite recent examples to the contrary. 2023 Kodai Senga was a revelation for the Mets: 2nd place in the NL Rookie of the Year, some down ballot Cy Young votes, and an All-Star selection in his first MLB season.

But then came 2024, and injuries limited Senga to just one regular season appearance and three mostly ineffective postseason appearances. 2025 started off strong, but another injury caused by trying to cover first base led to missed time and, more importantly, Senga never looked the same once he returned. But before the injury, Senga made 13 starts, putting up a 1.74 ERA in 73.2 innings pitched. Yes, his FIP was more than a run higher, so maybe there was some luck present, but Senga looked much more like the rookie than he did in his frustrating late-2024 appearances.

With stronger up the middle defense, a potential six-man rotation, and a coaching staff more aligned with the front office, things seem like they may be working in Senga’s favor. Already this spring, Senga’s velocity is back up to the high 90s, and his ghost fork is diving out of the strike zone like it did in ‘23. If he can stay healthy, Senga is poised to have a monster season.

My initial bold prediction for Senga was a sub-3.00 ERA, but that’s not bold enough. In 2023, he did just that. In 2025, even with a month and a half of general ineffectiveness, his ERA only topped out at 3.02. So let’s be bolder: Kodai Senga’s ERA will be lower than 2.50 for 2026.

Michael Drago: The Mets will have the best OF in baseball by fWAR

Last year’s outfield – despite having added one of the best players in the game over the past winter – was somewhat frustrating. Juan Soto was every bit as good with the bat as advertised, but he did have some horribly unlucky clutch numbers, and was unsurprisingly terrible in right field. Brandon Nimmo, while not quite fully cooked, certainly showed signs of continued skill degradation. And the less said about the team’s production (or lack thereof) in center field, the better.

But of the many things that will hopefully go better for the 2026 Mets, I’m going to bet on the team’s overall outfield production to be one of the biggest improvements. Soto will have an MVP-caliber season (and might even win it if the voters get tired of giving it to Ohtani every year), as his numbers in clutch situations will revert back to the mean while his shift to left field will result in his defense not being TOO detrimental. Luis Robert Jr. will reclaim his offensive skills and be, at a bare minimum, a solid bat after freeing himself from the stink of the White Sox vibes/coaching staff, and that combined with his elite center field defense will make him a significant improvement over what the Mets got out of the position last year (and of course, the potential for him reaching his previous MVP candidate peak remains there). And in right field, Carson Benge – whether it be at the start of the season or shortly thereafter – will establish himself as a long-term piece for the Amazin’s, providing a well-rounded offensive game along with a strong glove in right field (and meanwhile, Mike Tauchman will either be a serviceable placeholder for Benge or a solid bench piece). It will all add up to being one of the stronger outfield units the Mets have had in recent memory, and it will be the envy of just about every other team in baseball.

Allison McCague: Tobias Myers will stick in the Mets’ rotation

One big difference between this current Mets team and the Mets of one year ago is that their starting pitching is remarkably healthy as we tick closer to Opening Day. I am knocking on all of the wood as I type this; as of this writing, Nolan McLean still has to pitch in the World Baseball Classic final and everyone else has a Grapefruit League appearance or two left before the regular season gets underway. But as of now, the Mets have a full six-man rotation’s worth of healthy major league caliber pitchers (Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson).

That pushes Tobias Myers, also acquired from the Brewers in the Freddy Peralta trade, to the bullpen as the swingman. But I think it won’t be long before Myers finds himself in the rotation full-time and I predict that once he’s there, he’ll stick there. The obvious reason this prediction may not seem that bold on its face is that, well, pitchers break. Even though the rotation is healthy right now, it may not stay that way and we don’t need to look any further than last year’s team or at any other team around the majors to see how important pitching depth is to an organization. Last year, Griffin Canning was an excellent example of the Mets maximizing on a guy’s talent and transforming him into a cromulent fill-in guy when injuries took their toll until injury took him down as well.

The part that is bold here is that I don’t think it will even necessarily take injuries for Myers to force his way up the depth chart. I think Myers is already the third or fourth best starting pitcher the Mets have and that will crystalize sooner rather than later. Sean Manaea’s velocity has been down this spring. Neither the Mets nor Manaea expressed concern about this and it could be nothing, but if he is ineffective in his first few starts, that is already reason enough to limit his innings and give Myers more of a shot. Holmes and McLean are both adjusting to full season workloads. If you put any stock in spring training performance, Myers has been excellent, posting a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts and an increased induced vertical break on his fastball. The Mets are making changes with his arm angle, grip, and pitch mix that make one optimistic we could see a huge performance spike from him this year, which is why I think he’s going to earn a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later and not relinquish it once he does.

Linus Lawrence: Brett Baty posts more than 4.5 WAR in 2026

I think Brett Baty is going to be very good. Not great. He’s not going to win an MVP or anything. But he’ll be really, pretty, very good. My evidence? Here are his WAR/162 rates from each of his four big league seasons thus far:

2022: -4.4
2023: -1.1
2024: 0.9
2025: 3.8

Now I’m no statistician, but that looks to me like a fairly reliable incline. If the pattern continues, he’d be due for ~6 WAR this season. That’s a starling number, and one he’s highly unlikely to reach, especially if his playing time comes more from first base and left field than third base this season. But he’s only 26 years old, a former first-round pick and top prospect, and nowhere near finished developing as a ballplayer. With the Mets’ previous homegrown core of Nimmo, Alonso, and McNeil a thing of the past, it’s time for the baby Mets — Baty, Alvarez, and Vientos — to become the new old guard. David Stearns believes in him. Billy Eppler believed in him. Heck, Brodie Van Wagenen believed in him. So should we.

Thomas Henderson: Jorge Polanco is more valuable than Pete Alonso in 2026 by WAR

One of the more controversial moves, according to a lot of the online fan base and the media at large, was the Mets’ decision to let Pete Alonso take his talents to Baltimore, Maryland, and the subsequent choice to replace him with longtime middle infielder Jorge Polanco. So, since it’s bold prediction season after all, what better way to really dive into that than to make a prediction about both of them?

So, my bold prediction is that Jorge Polanco will have a higher fWAR than Pete Alonso.

It sounds kind of outrageous on its front, as Alonso has a huge reputation and Polanco’s reputation is more of a secondary player. However, I think they are closer than one may think, especially with the impending move to first base for the latter.

Since the 2021 season began, Alonso has amassed a 15.8 fWAR, good for 44th in all of baseball, and Polanco comes in a fair bit lower, with 10 fWAR, making him the 92nd best player in baseball over that same stretch. However, I think the defense will be key for this bold prediction.

Even the most ardent Alonso fan will likely admit he’s never been a gold glove defender, but his Outs Above Average numbers paint a dire picture for the Polar Bear. His -9 OAA ranked as 14th worst in all of baseball last year, and I personally find it hard to believe that it will improve, considering his age and, frankly, his already middling defensive skillset.

On the other hand, Polanco has a much better chance to improve on his middling defensive numbers. He was never a truly excellent defender as a (mostly) middle infielder, but there is historical precedent for a player moving to first base and taking to it.

If you look at last year’s OAA first base leader board, there are plenty of first base converts on that list. Ty France, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Arranda and Bryce Harper are all players who moved to first base, and ended up in the top twelve of first basemen according to OAA. That doesn’t even mention Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went from a truly awful third baseman—we’re talking like -19 OAA in 2019—to a mostly bang average first baseman.
It stands to reason that Jorge Polanco, a below-average to bad middle infielder, can improve his defensive statistics enough to shorten the gap between him and Alonso, according to fWAR. As long as their bats remain similar, and over three of the last four seasons they roughly are, save for a brutal 2024 for Polanco, and it’ll be interesting to see how the defensive side of things comes along for Polanco.

Vasilis Drimalitis: Francisco Alvarez stays healthy and is an NL All-Star

I was initially planning to go intentionally vague with my prediction and say Alvarez will have an “All-Star caliber season”, but that feels like a cop out, so I’m going to go a little bolder than I initially intended. The main point here is that I believe Alvarez finally has the season that Mets fans and the organization have been waiting for. What that means may vary from person-to-person, but first and foremost he stays healthy, puts up elite offensive production for a catcher, and becomes an impact bat, which helps make the bottom half of the Mets’ lineup look considerably better. And let’s put the cherry on top and predict that he’s named to the NL All Star team, for good measure.

Since being ranked the top prospect in all of baseball in 2022, Alvarez has failed to live up to those sky-high expectations. He played 123 games and hit 25 games in 2023, which is the best the Mets have seen from him over the course of a full season. He posted a wRC+ of 96 in 2023, 101 in 2024, and 124 in 2025. Injuries, including many that really boil down to bad luck, have held him back—last year alone, he fractured his left hamate bone during spring training, suffered a UCL sprain in his thumb, and fractured his left pinky after being hit by a pitch during a rehab assignment. That all comes after he tore a ligament in his thumb, costing him two months in 2024. All of that sapped his power, resulting in just 22 home runs combined over the past two seasons.

The second half of his season last year is what really makes me think Alvarez is going to be one of *the guys* for the team. After his return from the minors in the second half of the season, he posted a 157 wRC+ and hit eight homers and nine doubles over 40 games. He slashed .276/.360/.561 and was one of the best hitters on the club. Among all National League catchers with a minimum 100 plate appearances in the second half of the 2025 season, Alvarez had the best wRC+ (157) and the fourth-best fWAR (1.5), proving that, at his best, he can be ranked among the best NL catchers. I expect that to carry over into the year. His luck is also bound to turn around at some point, and this is the year that will happen for Alvarez, keeping him on the field for 110-120 games.

Alvarez’s career-best fWAR is 3.0 in 2025, so I’m going to predict that he surpasses that and finishes top-5 among NL catchers. With the hand and arm injuries behind him, I’ll predict that he also eclipses the 20 home run mark for the second time in his career. Lastly, I’ll say that Alvarez sets a career best mark in wRC+, topping last season.

Lukas Vlahos: The Mets finish 2026 with at least seven top-101 prospects

Per Baseball Prospectus, the Mets currently have seven prospects in the top 101: Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, Jonah Tong, A.J. Ewing, Jacob Reimer, Ryan Clifford, and Will Watson. Three of these are near locks to graduate – McLean, Benge, and Tong – while Clifford has already seen Triple-A and the others are not far behind. It’s within the realm of possibility that five or more of these players graduate.

I’m betting that doesn’t come to pass, that the major league roster will be good enough to prevent all of Ewing, Reimer, Clifford, and Watson from cracking the big leagues for long enough to lose rookie eligibility. Tied to that, I’m also betting that none of them see a significant decline in their prospect stock, nor that any will be traded. The first half of that is born out of conviction in all of these players. The latter half is an estimation that no player worth trading one of these players for will become available at the trade deadline.

That’s only four names though, how do we get the Mets top-101 count back up to seven? Mitch Voit is the obvious addition, even if his post-draft debut was shaky. I’m betting that at least one player from the group of Elian Peña, Eli Serrano (my personal favorite), Jack Wenninger, Jonathan Santucci, and Zach Thornton are in this conversation as well. And beyond that, I’m making a broader bet on Mets development to continue drastically increasing the stock of prospects that are more off the public’s radar to add one final name here. Maybe it’s Antonio Jimenez. Maybe it’s Peter Kussow. It could be Carlos Guzman. Who knows.

There are so many potential paths here and I have such strong conviction in the Mets’ development apparatus at this stage that I am confident they will have at least seven top-101 names once again next offseason.

Morning everyone and happy Tuesday!

We knew since Friday that Luis Severino would be taking the ball on Opening Day. It wasn’t a shock and was well-deserved considering how he’s been pitching over the past few weeks across both Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic. Sevy gets Game 1 but now we know how the rest of the first series will go.

It’s no shock to see left-hander Jeffrey Springs getting the nod for Game 2 on Saturday. The lefty was one of the team’s best pitchers for a majority of the season last year. Outside of a disastrous first month of the season Springs was the anchor in the middle of the rotation that the A’s thought they were getting when they acquired him from the Rays last offseason. We’ll all be hoping that Springs can avoid that rough start this year, though he’ll have a tough task in the Blue Jays. In 12 career appearances against Toronto (5 starts), Springs has a 4.46 ERA, including two starts last year. Springs will be opposed by right-hander Dylan Cease, the high-priced free agent signee who will be making his team debut when he gets the ball. A tough matchup to be sure but if we get mid-season Springs we should be okay.

Surprisingly the A’s will go with right-hander Luis Morales for Game 3 on Sunday. The 23-year-old is one of the prized pitching prospects in the organization and looked good in his big league debut at the end of last year, pitching to a 3.14 ERA in his first 10 games. Things have not been smooth for him this spring however as he’s struggled in most of his appearances. It’s important to remember it’s just spring but still, it’s been a growing concern for A’s fans and he didn’t do anything to assuage those anxieties in yesterday’s spring finale. Hopefully these worries are all for not, but the A’s will be asking a lot of Morales considering he’s so young, has little big league experience and reached his career-high in innings pitched last year at just 89. Morales may have a few short starts throughout the year, if he can keep his spot in the rotation. He’ll be opposed on Sunday in the series finale by left-hander Eric Lauer.

That sets up left-hander Jacob Lopez and right-hander Aaron Civale to take the first two games in the second series of the year when the A’s travel to take on the Atlanta Braves. We don’t know the order but it’d be fair to assume Civale gets Game 4 on account of his veteran status. Lopez was one of the better pitchers the A’s had last year but had an elbow injury hanging over his head all offseason. It seems he’s gotten through camp without any setbacks and so hopefully Lopez is a full-go. If it was based on last year’s results then Lopez would get Game 4 but we’ll have to wait and see how manager Mark Kotsay wants to order the rotation.

It’s getting closer! Enjoy the next few days without baseball guys because once games get going it’s six long months until the end of the season. Marathon, not a race.

Have a good one A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

• Morales’ latest dud raises readiness questions
• A’s wrap spring up with win over White Sox
• A’s trade minor leaguer Cooper Bowman to Rays for Gerlin Rosario
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Observes The Wild Denzelope In Its Natural Habitat
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Toes The Rubber With Pitching Coach Scott Emerson
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Catches Up With Starting Pitcher Jacob Lopez
• Athletics drop one to the White Sox 6-4
• Eyeball Scout Wowed By 12— Win: Lots To Love
• March Reminder: Opening Day Rosters Matter More To The Fans
• A’s Lose To Texas 7-6 in Spring Training Matchup
• Can Muncy’s glove catch up to his bat at third base?

MLB News and Interest:

• Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong agree to contract extension
• Mets phenom Benge makes Opening Day roster
• Top Cardinals prospect Wetherholt makes Opening Day roster
• Braves starter Spencer Strider to begin year on IL
• Astros finalize season-opening rotation
• Nats starter Josiah Gray has flexor strain in elbow
• Andrew McCutchen earns spot on Rangers’ Opening Day roster
• Robot umpires are coming to MLB. Here’s how they work
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

TJ McFarland calling it quits:

Former A's lefty announces retirement https://t.co/NFZCiHxRw6

— Jason Burke (@ByJasonB) March 24, 2026

Jump at Triple-A, Arnold at Double-A to start the year:

A’s No. 3 prospect Gage Jump will begin the regular season at Triple-A Las Vegas, while No. 2 prospect Jamie Arnold will start out at Double-A Midland. pic.twitter.com/7XhRgOfzgt

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) March 23, 2026

A roundup of recent moves:

MOVES
RHP Gunnar Hoglund to IL
RHP Jack Perkins/OF Colby Thomas to LV
LV 2B Cooper Bowman to TB for RHP Gerlin Rosario (unassigned)
LHP Colton Johnson, RHPs Hunter Breault, Tom Reisinger, Drew Conover, Aidan Layton, Dairon DeJesus, OF Cesar Franco releasedhttps://t.co/joKXkyUAPy

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) March 23, 2026

Looking like Ginn got that last roster spot in the bullpen over Perkins. Good or bad?

Only surprise is that Ginn nabbed the final bullpen spot over Perkins, but A's apparently want to keep Perkins stretched out as a starter at Vegas in case he's needed to supplement the rotation… https://t.co/f5Shz8yWYX

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) March 23, 2026

Over the course of the offseason, I settled on a new framing device for how to look at a baseball team and its chances of making the playoffs. The common thought around baseball goes like this: “You’re going to win 54 games, you’re going to lose 54 games. It’s what happens in the other 54 that determines where you end up.” I like to think about winning enough of those 54 games to reach the postseason as answering a sufficient number of “ifs.”

You will win a game if the starting pitcher does well, if the bullpen can lock it down, if the offense can score runs, or if you can get a little lucky. Those statements can all be broken down into more specific questions, and, of course, for any given game, you don’t need all of those if-statements to come true, but you need enough of them to work out. And so it is with the season. That’s why projection systems are so conservative by nature, because you’d have to be nearly perfect to be expected to win 108, and have nearly the worst outcome imaginable to lose that many. But the number of potential answers a team has can make a big difference.

For example, every team that wants to succeed needs to try to answer that first “if” every night; they’ve got to send a starting pitcher to the mound. Last year, the Royals had six possible answers that they felt pretty good about when the season started. That ended up not being enough, and people called it bad luck with injuries. The Dodgers suffered more injuries to their starting rotation, but still won the World Series. Why? Because they had more “ifs” they could use when they rolled snake eyes.

There’s also the matter of the quality of the ifs, of course. In computer programming, an “if statement” is followed by a list of possibilities separated by an AND or an OR. If the options are combined with and, everything has to go right to continue (also known as “returning true”); if they’re combined with an OR, you only need one of them to return true. When I was younger, the ifs would go something like, “If Mark Teahen can move to second AND he can still play good defense AND he can continue improving his bat into his late 20s AND he doesn’t slow down AND someone else can play third, first, left, and rightfield, the Royals can win! That’s simply too many ifs for one player to answer, so you’re not going to get to follow through.

If you prefer betting metaphors, it’s the difference between betting a six-legged parlay and having six individual bets. In the parlay, they’ve all got to cover for you to win any money. If you do six individual bets, and you win some of them, you can still make a profit. (Remember this when you’re considering whether to play a parlay or not, please. Parlays are a sportsbook’s best friend and a bettor’s worst enemy.)

The 2026 Royals have a series of if questions to answer, but there are a lot fewer ANDs than we’ve become accustomed to as Royals fans. And the Royals have as many potential options as they’ve had in the history of my fandom to plug in for the ORs.

If the starting pitcher does well

The bare minimum number of answers necessary for this question is five – the number of starters in a rotation at any given time. However, the reality has always been that you’re going to need more than five; probably closer to ten or even fifteen correct answers over the course of a full season. For each starting pitcher, you basically have to answer two more if questions: if he is healthy and if he pitches well. Here’s how the Royals began 2025:

• Cole Ragans
  • Extremely likely to pitch well
  • Unlikely to be healthy
• Seth Lugo
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Michael Wacha
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Michael Lorenzen
  • Not particularly likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Kris Bubic
  • Quite likely to pitch well
  • Unlikely to be healthy
• Noah Cameron
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Alec Marsh
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Was hurt before the season started
• Kyle Wright
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Extremely unlikely to be healthy, injured shortly into the season

The Royals simply didn’t have enough guys who were likely to satisfy both criteria, and that ended up bearing out in the end. However, things are different in 2026. Ragans, Wacha, and Lugo are all back and in roughly similar positions as last year. Noah Cameron and Kris Bubic are back, but you’d expect more out of both of them than you did entering last season, as long as they remain healthy. They lost Lorenzen, Marsh, and Wright, but look who they added:

• Ryan Bergert
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Stephen Kolek
  • Likely to be average
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Bailey Falter
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Luinder Avila
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Ben Kudrna
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Mitch Spence
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Mason Black
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy

Now, don’t get hung up on how many of those guys are unlikely to pitch well, because not all of them need to. The 2026 Royals don’t have any more ifs for their rotation than the 2025 team did, but they have more potential answers. Soren Petro has spent a lot of time on the Kauffman Corner podcast this offseason asking how things might have gone differently for Luke Hochevar if the Royals had had guys who could start games instead of him, allowing him to shift to the bullpen earlier in his career than he did. If one of these guys turns into a modern-day Luke Hochevar – looking at you, Mason Black – the Royals won’t have to ask if; they’ll be able to find out because they do have someone else who can step into the rotation and give it a shot.

If the bullpen can lock it down

We don’t need to go through that whole exercise from above with every reliever; there are too many of them. But trust me when I say the Royals have more options with better chances of returning true than they’ve ever had before under manager Matt Quatraro. Any of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Alex Lange, Nick Mears, or Matt Strahm might have been the best reliever on the roster at the start of 2024. Heck, this year’s version of Steven Cruz or Luinder Avila might have been, too, and they’re both starting the year in the minors. James McArthur was the Royals’ closer for much of that year, and even if he gets healthy and starts pitching better than he did that season, he might not be able to find much time on the big league roster because of how much more talent the team has available this year. John Schreiber was last year’s third-best reliever and might be this year’s seventh-best.

When you have enough potential answers, the likelihood of getting one right goes way up; that’s just probability. The likelihood of rolling a six on a standard die is 16.7%; the likelihood of rolling at least one six on two standard dice is 30.5%; the likelihood of rolling at least one six on three standard dice is 42.1%. You can never get all the way to 100% probability, no matter how many dice you add, but still, more dice give you better odds, and the Royals have a lot of dice in 2026.

Last year, Carlos Estévez led all of MLB in saves. But if he had gotten injured, the only likely solution for closer would have been Lucas Erceg, who wasn’t pitching as well in 2025 as he did after being acquired in 2024. After him would have been John Schreiber, who isn’t as bad as Royals fans sometimes think, but doesn’t seem likely to thrive in the closer role for very long. But, while there is some concern about Estévez to start the year, there are still half a dozen other guys after him and Erceg who are at least as good as Schreiber that you can try out at the closer job for a short time without feeling like you’re stretching too far. That includes Strahm, who has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three years. If those guys are healthy and pitching well, then they get a chance to come up sixes in the earlier innings, instead, shortening games in a way that the 2015 Royals enjoyed with the option to try out a variety of guys in the fifth and sixth innings because they knew HDH had the back three locked down.

If the offense can score runs

Let’s list the questions the offense needs to answer:

• If Bobby Witt Jr. can be a star
• If Maikel Garcia can be close to as good as he was last year
• If Vinnie Pasquantino can continue to be an RBI machine
• If Salvador Perez can fight off Father Time for another year
• If Jonathan India can bounce back to be playable
• If Isaac Collins can continue to show elite plate discipline
• If Kyle Isbel can still be a defensive force in center field
• If Jac Caglianone can live up to the projections this time
• If Carter Jensen can look like the guy he was in September
• If Lane Thomas can mash lefties again
• If Starling Marte can hit
• If Michael Massey can find his form from 2024 and stay healthy

That’s a lot of ifs, but reading through that list, a lot of them feel pretty likely, yes? Last year, the list included things like “If MJ Melendez’s swing change works” and “If Jonathan India can hit at the highest level he’s ever hit AND play two brand new positions competently”. Things that we either did or should have assumed wouldn’t work. Last year also included “If Bobby Witt Jr. can be a superstar”, which is very different from just being a star, which he still was last year, and feels like his floor.

In a lot of these cases, we’re just asking the players to continue doing what they’ve done. One of the meme-able complaints about Dayton Moore was his seeming belief that everyone would do better next year, and that’s how the team would win. The 2026 Royals mostly don’t need to get better; they just need to be as good as they have recently been.

And, once again, not all of these have to happen. The most obvious example of this is that only one of the three out of Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas, and Starling Marte has to hit to make left field significantly better than last year. When Melendez and Renfroe didn’t succeed last year, the Royals were forced to turn to John Rave and Drew Waters. Now, instead of the first guys through the door, Waters might be gone entirely, and Rave might be third or fourth choice in the minors after several viable-seeming options in the bigs. Second base still looks like a problem because while the team only needs to find success with India or Massey to fix second base, neither seems particularly likely. Still, if everything else works out, that leaves only one hole in a lineup. And a lineup that goes eight deep is still a lineup you can win with.

You want to know what has to happen for the Royals to make the playoffs? So does the team! The old saying goes that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. Every year, the Royals have made a plan to get to the postseason. This year, though, when the Royals’ plans inevitably go awry, they have given themselves more options than ever to figure it out. What needs to happen for the Royals to make it to the playoffs? No one knows for sure, but the Royals seem likely to have answers, regardless.

Happy Tuesday! The Mariners concluded this year’s Spring Training with a 3-10 loss to the San Diego Padres, but a solid outing from starter Luis Castillo was one of the game’s highlights. Castillo pitched five innings and only gave up one run on four hits with five strikeouts. 

We are just two sleeps away from 2026 Opening Day, and first pitch can’t come any sooner. The Mariners will be faced with a number of difficult roster decisions before then, however, including J.P. Crawford’s position at shortstop and Bryce Miller’s rotation spot. With both players battling injuries and a little uncertainty with their status, who do you think will occupy those positions on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster?

In Mariners news…

• Ryan Divish at The Seattle Times details how the baseball journeys of Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have led them to the success they are seeing today.
• Bryce Miller has been progressing quickly through his recovery from oblique inflammation and believes his next step is to pitch a live bullpen session on Friday.

Around the league…

• Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Chicago Cubs are finalizing a long-term contract extension.
• Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider will begin the season on the 10-day IL with a left oblique strain.
• Veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen has made the Texas Rangers’ Opening Day roster in his 18th MLB season.
• RHP John Brebbia has been released from his minor league deal by the Colorado Rockies and will now become a free agent.
• The Athletics have traded infield prospect Cooper Bowman to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for righty pitching prospect Gerlin Rosario.
• Washington Nationals RHP Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a flexor strain and been placed on the 60-day IL.
• Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Gavin Lux will begin the season on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder impingement.
• Mike Petriello at MLB.com breaks down the ABS data from this year’s Spring Training and how it compares to Triple-A data from the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks News

National League Wild Card landscape: What teams do the Diamondbacks have to compete with? by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

The National League has a clear favorite, three rebuilding clubs and a large swath of teams that range from young and promising to perennial contender, which should create a competitive atmosphere.

On Fangraphs, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to lead the NL with 96 wins, but there are 10 teams between 77 and 88 wins where a few breaks can cluster the group together.

One Last-Minute Move the Diamondbacks Could Still Make Before Opening Day by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

There don’t tend to be many legitimately good free agent left-handed relievers just floating out there, unsigned. A move to acquire one would likely either require a trade or taking a flyer on a potential under-the-radar arm. 

One option that is available, as much as D-backs fans might groan at it: former Diamondback Andrew Chafin was recently let go by the Minnesota Twins. 

Chafin pitched to an elite 2.41 ERA in 42 games for the Twins and Nationals in 2025. He posted a 3.51 ERA in 62 games in 2024, one year following his departure from Arizona.

Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster becomes clear, and there are no left-handed relievers by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

“We feel very comfortable with some reverse split guys that can go out there and attack left-hand hitters,” Lovullo said. “The reason for this decision, and this is what I told Brandyn, is that our main pillar is filling up the strike zone. I felt like that was a little inconsistent. … He’s going to be in our bullpen in no time. So that’s the reason.”

Morillo and Ginkel were two arms Lovullo pointed to who could go after lefties, and Hoffmann had reverse splits in the minor leagues, as well.

Around the League

Best mound visit of Baumler’s life – finding out he’s a Major Leaguer by Dave Sessions [MLB]

Baumler induced groundouts from the first two batters he faced, Starling Marte and Jonathan India, before Schumacher suddenly sprung from the dugout steps and went out to the mound for a chat. The Rangers’ infielders converged and Schumaker broke the good news to Baumler – to a visit then filled with laughs and smiles.

Baumler did not allow a run in 9 1/3 innings over eight Cactus League appearances for the Rangers this spring, striking out 10 and walking two. At three levels in Baltimore’s farm system last season, Baumler ​​posted a combined 2.04 ERA in 39 2/3 innings.

MLB Opening Day 2026: A guide to the offseason chaos by Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield [ESPN]

Opening week of the 2026 MLB season has arrived — after an offseason when chaos reigned supreme.

Not long after their historic late-season collapse, the New York Mets started an offseason overhaul that continued throughout the winter. Fresh off their 2025 World Series appearance, the Toronto Blue Jays added an ace to their rotation, the Baltimore Orioles brought in a slugging bat to anchor their lineup, and the Chicago Cubs finally made the big-name free agent signing their fans had been craving.

But in the end, it was the two-time reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers who sent shock waves through the sport by signing the offseason’s No. 1 free agent to a record deal.

2026 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 16-30) by Michael Rosen [FanGraphs]

28. Diamondbacks

With A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Kevin Ginkel — who, to be clear, posted a 7.36 ERA in 2025 while battling intermittent shoulder issues — started the offseason in the pole position to handle much of the team’s high-leverage work. Then his fastball was down two ticks this spring, and he got lit up, so that might’ve been the end of high-leverage Gink.

At least Paul Sewald is back in town. He appears to have added a cutterish pitch to his two-pitch arsenal, and his velocity has actually been up a bit in his brief spring action. Given the trend lines of these two, I’d pick Sewald to emerge as the preferred early-season closer option, but there are a few guys who are perhaps primed to seize the title as they gain a bit more big league experience.

JJ Wetherholt To Make Cardinals’ Opening Day Roster by Darragh McDonald [MLB Trade Rumors]

The news on Wetherholt is notable but not surprising. It has seemed all winter long as though the Cards had planned for him to get a shot in the big leagues. They cleared out their roster this winter by trading guys like Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan. Those trade were partly for cost savings but also to open some playing time for younger players as the Cards are rebuilding and need to assess their young guys in a major league environment.

Wetherholt was one of the main guys who needed some room. The seventh overall pick of the 2024 draft, he climbed to the cusp of the majors last year. He split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, making 496 plate appearances in total. His 14.5% walk rate was excellent and almost as high as his 14.7% strikeout rate. He produced a combined .306/.421/.510 batting line, which translated to a 154 wRC+. He stole 23 bases on the year. His defense at shortstop was considered good enough for him to stay there as a big leaguer but he also played some second and third base.

As the 2026 season drew closer and the annual top 100 lists came out, Wetherholt was in the top 10 of most of them. But at the beginning of the season, the Cards had a fairly crowded infield. Masyn Winn is one of the best defensive shortstops on the majors and is controlled for another four seasons. They had Arenado at third. Donovan could bounce around the diamond but played second base more than any other spot.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates Sent Down Konnor Griffin by Michael McDermott [Mike’s Hardball Blueprint]

In the Prospect Promotion Incentive era, it’s tempting for the Pirates to play their top prospect. A first-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2026, or becoming an MVP finalist by 2028, would have netted Pittsburgh a first-round pick. Considering the Dodgers and Mets are spending like there’s no tomorrow, it would easily be a Top 30 selection.

However, we also have to remember that even with the potential reward of a first-rounder, the six-plus years of control are more valuable. The draft pick is merely a bonus if the timing lines up right for an elite prospect.

The outfield was a problem for the Orioles last year. Early-season injuries to Colton Cowser and Tyler O’Neill meant that the team rarely had their “first string” options all available at the same time. This did allow Ramón Laureano to break out and become a valuable trade chip, but the rest of the replacements struggled to find any consistency.

Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias made the outfield a priority this offseason. He dealt Grayson Rodriguez, and his four years of team control, to the Angels in exchange for veteran slugger Taylor Ward, a player that the GM had apparently been coveting for years. Ward is only expected to be in Baltimore for one year since he hits free agency after the season, but he should provide added power and durability to a lineup that could use both.

Leody Taveras was the other offseason addition. His spot on the roster is not locked in though. He would be the fifth outfielder on the squad, a luxury that many teams don’t utilize. His argument to make the Opening Day team would include his versatility, ability to play centerfield, speed on the bases, and a switch-hitting bat to complement Colton Cowser’s lefty stick.

---

Dylan Beavers

Beavers enters the year with a little bit of a Rookie of the Year buzz. He posted a .934 OPS in Triple-A Norfolk last year, and then had an intriguing 35-game cup of coffee with the Orioles at the end of the year in which he had a .375 on-base percentage. Those performances gave his prospect status a big boost, placing him onto several “Top 100” lists for the first time in his career.

What the rookie’s exact role will be on the team is tough to pin down. He has experience at all three outfield spots, but fits best in the corners. How often will he start ahead of O’Neill and Ward? It’s unclear. At a minimum, he should enter most games at some point to serve as a defensive replacement or pinch runner.

Colton Cowser

The 2025 season was a nightmare for Cowser. He broke his thumb in the first week of the year, forcing him to miss two months. Shortly after returning in June, he fractured his ribs. In what was supposed to be a breakout season for Cowser, he struggled to stay on the field and underperformed (.196/.269/.385) when he was healthy.

It seemed possible going into the offseason that the Orioles would pursue a center field upgrade, pushing Cowser to fight for playing time in the corners. Instead, they added Ward and made Cowser their de facto starting center fielder. It’s a big role in a crucial campaign.

Tyler O’Neill

The Orioles need more out of O’Neill in 2026 than they got in his debut season. Last year, he only played in 54 games, hit nine home runs, and posted a .684 OPS. That’s not good value for the $16.5 million he is earning per season.

O’Neill is making too much money to simply be a platoon bat, but the Orioles could look to protect him a bit more in the season ahead. That could mean getting subbed out in the late innings or seeing more regular time at DH. Beavers is going to deserve regular playing time as well, so some sort of partnership with O’Neill makes sense.

Taylor Ward

The addition of Ward came out of, well, left field. Rodriguez was a player that Orioles fans had grown attached to and still believed in quite a bit. Ward, playing his baseball on the west coast, was a relative unknown that is also due to hit free agency soon. It didn’t seem to make much sense at first blush.

Now, several months and a full spring training removed from the move, things are starting to click. Ward has been a well above-average hitter for five years now and has experience hitting towards the top of a batting order. A nice showing down in Sarasota (.894 OPS) doesn’t hurt either. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is opening the season on the IL for the Angels, citing “dead arm” and further diminished velocities for the decision. There is still plenty of time for this deal to go sideways, but right now it is looking much more logical for the Orioles.

Depth

Whether or not any other dedicated outfielders make the Opening Day squad will depend on how the front office and manager Craig Albernaz feel about the rest of their bench. The roster math right now is tight, depending on if they go forward with 12 or 13 pitchers out of the gate. Unless there is an unreported injury or a potential trade in the next two days, they will probably not be able to carry all of the bench players that have been discussed throughout the spring. Bryan Ramos, who is exclusively an infielder, would seem to be the odd man out despite his strong showing this spring.

Taveras did not have a great spring. He finished with a .205/.226/.304 batting line. But at this point in his career, his value is not in his bat. It’s more about being a late-game upgrade on defense or the bases. Is that worth his $2 million salary? Or could the team get just as much value out of a combination of Beavers, Blaze Alexander, and the eventual call-up of Enrique Bradfield Jr.?

Alexander, acquired from the Diamondbacks right before spring training, is making the team and is likely to see plenty of time at second base as Jackson Holliday rehabs his broke hamate bone. But the O’s used him in center field some this spring, and the Diamondbacks gave him time there last season. Using him as the backup in center would save a roster spot.

It’s a similar consideration for Jeremiah Jackson in the corners. The 25-year-old had a really good camp (.847 OPS), which comes on the heels of an impressive post-trade deadline showing with the big league team last summer (.775 OPS, five home runs). They could use his bat off the bench. Most of his professional work has come on the infield, but he played 34 games in right field last year.

Bradfield is being treated like a player that the Orioles plan to count on rather soon. As of this writing, he is still on the team’s roster and took part in both of their exhibition games against the Nationals this week. With the glove and on the bases, he is ready for the big leagues. But his bat needs some work. He OPS’ed just .512 in 15 games at Triple-A last year, and went 1-for-12 this spring. That doesn’t sound like a player that will make an Opening Day roster, but a strong showing in Triple-A to begin the season could earn him a ticket to Baltimore sometime in the first half of the year.

Heston Kjerstad began the spring on fire, but cooled off in the second half of March. Now he is dealing with hamstring tightness. All of this combines to leave him off of the Opening Day roster and likely to get his first action of the year at Triple-A Norfolk. But if he proves he has shaken the health issues from a season ago, he should get another shot in Baltimore at some point in the year, especially if the offense needs an influx of power.

Reed Trimble was a somewhat surprising addition to the 40-man roster this winter. The 25-year-old has been a legitimate prospect ever since the Orioles selected him 65th overall back in 2021, but his development has been rather slow. That said, he was Rule 5 draft-eligible in December, so it seems the Orioles were worried enough about losing him that they didn’t want to risk it. He hit .257/.352/.503 in Double-A last year, and then spent a month in Triple-A. His ceiling is probably that of a toolsy reserve that can provide solid defense at all three outfield spots. He will need to prove himself in Norfolk first.

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The Orioles do not project to be elite at any one outfield position in 2026. But at a minimum they should be serviceable across the board. FanGraphs gives the following projections by position:

• LF: 2.8 fWAR, sixth-best in MLB
• CF: 3.0 fWAR, 13th in MLB
• RF: 2.4 fWAR, 11th in MLB

That would represent significant improvement in left (0.8 fWAR in 2025) and center (1.2 fWAR in 2024), while it would be about the same production in right (2.5 fWAR in 2025) from a season ago. The Orioles would take that. Ultimately, this team is going to go as far as their infielders, led by Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso, can take them. But they need the outfield to show a certain level of competency and health that they didn’t in 2025.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

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We’re just two days from Opening Day of the 2026 regular season. The Cubs will face the Nationals at Wrigley Field.

Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer has done another makeover of the team over the winter, with Kyle Tucker departing and Alex Bregman arriving being the biggest change.

But Hoyer also acquired a potential top starter, Edward Cabrera, in trade. And despite the departure of key 2025 relievers like Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller, Hoyer has acquired four relievers in free agency who all have had success in the past: Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb and Hunter Harvey.

In the past, Hoyer’s had good luck putting together bullpens, so I think that should work out pretty well.

In this week’s SB Nation Reacts survey, I’d like you to give Hoyer a grade. Honestly, I think this offseason rates an “A,” and I’ve never been a big fan of Hoyer. But he’s put together a win-now type of team that should be able to build on last year’s 92-win club and should be the favorite to win the NL Central.

Cast your vote below and we’ll have the results later this week.