This is either the most hopeful or depressing statistic for Spurs fans watching the NBA Finals: Through four games, the point differential is Knicks +8.
It may be a little of both. This has been an intense, close NBA Finals, with three of the four games decided by four points or less. Yet San Antonio finds itself down 3-1 and on the verge of its season ending due to a combination of the Knicks' grit and maturity in the clutch versus the Spurs' self-inflicted wounds and mistakes of youth.
"There's no avoiding what's happened," Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said. "There's no avoiding all four games have been winnable games. There's no avoiding we're down 3-1. There's no avoiding ways that we could be better. There's nobody that's going to be harder on ourselves and accountable to ourselves than the people in the locker room and each other. That's what helped us get to where we are, and how the group is built. There's no circumstance that will change that."
Will the NBA Finals end Saturday night in San Antonio, where the party from 7th Ave. in Manhattan would overtake the Riverwalk — there are going to be a lot of Knicks fans at the game — or can the Spurs finally win a game at home? There are two key things to watch in Game 5.
Can Spurs rebound emotionally?
I have a theory about NBA playoff series: There comes a point in nearly every series when one team realizes they are beaten, usually long before Game 6 or 7. They don't have the answers to the questions the other team is posing. The players and coaches never say it out loud — players don't make it to this level without being fierce competitors — but you can see it in body language and their eyes. They know.
The Spurs had that look after Game 4, a gut-punch loss in which they blew a 29-point lead (and, more disturbingly, a 20-point lead with 9:30 left in the game).
Usually, after a loss like that, the end comes pretty quickly, as it could for the Spurs in Game 5 on their home court. However, these young Spurs have shown a genuine resilience this postseason — they won Game 7 on the road in Oklahoma City. They won a game in Madison Square Garden. If you told me these Spurs showed that resilience on Saturday night and bounced back with a double-digit win, it would not be shocking. If San Antonio lost by double digits, that's not shocking either.
I've seen one team turn things around after having that defeated look: LeBron James and the Cavaliers against the Warriors in 2016. The Spurs are saying all the right things, exactly what you expect them to say, about following in the Cavs' footsteps and forging their own epic comeback.
"Absolutely. Everybody thinks, everybody knows, we're going to do it," Victor Wembanyama said, almost as if he was trying to manifest the outcome.
"One game at a time. Just one game at a time..." Devin Vassell said. "So we need to go 1-0, and whatever we need to do for that to happen, we've got to do that."
Saying the right thing is one thing, doing it on the court — especially when adversity hits, as it inevitably will — is something else entirely. These Spurs have shown toughness and resilience throughout the playoffs, but can they do it when the Knicks smell blood in the water?
Because these Knicks have the feel of a team of destiny, a team on a historic run. On the other side of that coin, can the Knicks avoid human nature, which is to relax a little after a win, especially knowing they can head home for a potential coronation in Game 6? Like the Spurs, they are saying all the right things.
"The biggest thing is everybody has to stay present," coach Mike Brown said. "You have to be present. You can't think about the outcome. It's about the process, the next play, the next play, the next play."
We'll see which team shows more emotional maturity on Saturday night.
Touching the paint
There has been one defining factor in all four games: The team driving the lane, touching the paint or getting it inside to their big men, then scoring (and drawing fouls) or spraying the ball out to shooters is the team that takes control.
There was no better example than Game 4, when the Spurs scored 24 points in the paint in the first half on their way to a 27-point lead. Then they became less aggressive in the second half, settled for far too many 3-pointers and pull-up jumpers, Wembanyama became tentative after picking up a flagrant foul on Towns (leaving him one flagrant from a suspension), and the Spurs scored just four points in the paint in the second half. Meanwhile, it was the Knicks behind Jalen Brunson who got downhill and into the paint in the second half, sparking their comeback win.
By Game 5 of a series, there are not a lot of technical adjustments left to be made. Both teams know their opponent, the game plan and what they need to do. It's just that doing it against an elite defense in a very physical series is something else entirely. Both teams will execute their game plan for stretches, then not for others.
"I think what you can do when you do move the ball and allow the IQ to flow and the ball to flow is you allow great shots to happen, especially when you're touching the paint or having movement on the offense and allowing the defense to make a mistake, instead of us having to make a tough shot or a great shot," Karl-Anthony Towns said.
Which team touches the paint, moves the ball and plays to their strengths on Saturday night will determine whether the Finals head to another game in New York or whether the Knicks' destiny can wait no longer.
