The pitch was a slider, up.

With two strikes and two outs, that’s usually a pitcher’s count – but Cam Nelson had been hunting something he could drive all night, and this was it.

“I was just looking for a pitch up, a pitch I could do damage with,” Nelson said. “I saw a breaking pitch up, and I did damage on a pitch I knew I could. From there it just kind of felt pretty surreal. Rounding the bases and all that was pretty awesome.” 

The swing produced his second home run of the year, his first walk-off blast as a professional, and capped another big night for a Fresno Grizzlies club that has been no stranger to late-inning drama in 2026. 

“We’re definitely rolling, especially scoring late in games,” Nelson said. “It’s awesome to have that fire behind all of us.” 

For Colorado Rockies fans who haven’t been tracking the Low-A box scores closely, the 22-year-old outfielder is quietly building one of the more intriguing offensive profiles in the lower minors – not on the strength of loud tools, but on an advanced eye and a knack for being on time. 

A foundation built in two places 

Nelson’s path to pro ball ran through two very different stops. He spent three years at St.Paul’s School in Maryland before transferring to PDG Baseball Academy for his senior season, and he credits each with shaping a different part of his skillset. 

“St Paul’s was really good for me from an academic standpoint. I feel like I really got my ground from there, and it really helped my transition into Wake just for all the classroom things,” he said. “Then going to PDG my senior year, I needed to get a little bit more competition. Playing more games, playing down south, it really helped me prepare for college in both ways.” 

At Wake Forest, Nelson landed in the middle of one of college baseball’s most loaded programs – two trips to regionals and a clubhouse stacked with future high-round picks. Watching former teammates like Nick Kurtz and Chase Burns break through at the big-league level so quickly has not been lost on him. 

“It’s definitely pretty cool to see. Seeing Kurtz in the MVP race right now is pretty awesome, and it’s crazy to think I was playing with him two years ago,” Nelson said. “Same thing with Burns – he’s been throwing really well. It’s awesome to see.” 

More than the name recognition, Nelson says those teams taught him who he needs to be on the field. 

“They were huge from the standpoint of my development, helping me realize I’ve got to fit into a certain role,” he said. “I’m a center fielder, a guy that’s really good at defense and has really good legs. So it’s about trying to make sure I’m not overdoing my role and doing what I can while I’m in the game.” 

Learning from the setbacks 

Ask Nelson about the moments that have shaped him the most, and he doesn’t point to the highlights. He points to the time he spent off the field. 

“The setbacks with injuries have really taken a little toll on me these past few years – dealing with a broken finger, and then some knee issues,” he said. “Those have been times where I’ve had to take some time and think about my game. It was really hard not being out there playing, so for me it was kind of like a mental break, but at the same time I was really just ready to get back out there.” 

That experience has changed how he takes care of his body now that he’s playing more than he ever has.

“I have to stay on top of everything – hip exercises, knee exercises, every single day,” Nelson said. “Especially now that I’m playing five, six games a week, staying on top of all my exercises has been really important.” 

The jump from college to the daily grind of pro ball was an adjustment in its own right. 

“At the start it was a little tough,” he said. “Just recognizing that I needed to have a really solid routine every day.” 

The two-way itch

Like a lot of elite amateurs, Nelson came up as a two-way player and pitched a bit at Wake before settling into the outfield full-time. A part of him still misses the mound.

“There’s a little part of me that does miss it,” he admitted. “I kind of always knew I was going to be an outfielder, just from my tools in general. But I do miss it – coming in and maybe closing a game would be pretty cool.” 

The pitching background pays off in a less obvious way: It sharpened how he reads at-bats from the other side. 

“At least when I face lefties, I think about how they would attack me now,” he said. “Thinking back to how I would attack hitters, I feel like it makes it a little bit easier for me.” 

Discipline as an identity

The headline number in Nelson’s first full season is his patience. Nelson leads the California League in walks and ranks among its top 10 in on-base percentage – and he says that command of the strike zone is nothing new.

“It’s always been a thing I’ve been pretty good at – having good discipline, knowing what pitches I need to swing at, which pitches are good to swing at, and in what counts,” he said. “Especially now, after college, some guys aren’t as sharp as they are up there at the higher level. So I try to make sure I get my pitch early and in the right counts.” 

That foundation set the stage for a breakout May, when his batting average registered roughly 70 points higher from where it sat in April, with fewer strikeouts. Nelson chalks the surge up to a mix of support, repetition, and timing. 

“One, just the support from my teammates and coaches – they’ve been a huge help,” he said. “But for me, being able to get my swing off early has really been helping. We’re facing these guys more than once now, more than twice, so I’m starting to get my grounding. I just know I’ll continue to get better throughout the season.”

A young, hungry group

Nelson is quick to fold his individual progress into a team story. The Grizzlies are young – many of them, like Nelson, are products of last year’s draft class, with others pushing up from complex levels – and that mix has produced a brand of baseball he clearly enjoys being part of.

“It’s been a ton of fun. We have a ton of energy coming to the field every single day,” he said. “A lot of us are just coming out of college, and some guys are coming up from the ACL and DSL, so those guys are hungry and ready to play. It’s a different brand of baseball – very high energy. It’s a team you expect to see a lot of wins from throughout the rest of the season.” 

What he wants Rockies fans to know

For fans just getting acquainted with him, Nelson’s self-scouting report is less about tools than temperament. And the player he grew up emulating tells you a lot about the swing he’s built.

“I’m a very high-energy player. You’re going to get my all out of me every single game – I play every game like it’s my last, and I just want to win.” he said. “Growing up, one of the guys I watched was Bryce Harper. Seeing him get into the league at 19 was something pretty cool to watch, and I was very mesmerized with his left-handed swing. That was one guy I liked watching growing up.” 

As for the organization’s marching orders since drafting him, the message has been refreshingly simple.

“They picked me up for the player I am,” Nelson said. “They told me to go out there and play the brand of baseball I know – get on base, score runs. That’s pretty much it.” 

The ultimate destination, of course, sits a mile above sea level. But Nelson is careful not to let Coors Field pull his focus off the work in front of him.

“That’s definitely the long-term goal – it always has been,” he said. “But at the stage I’m at right now, I’m taking it day by day, trying to be great at all the little things I’m working on at this moment. Once I feel like I’m getting really good at those things, I can start having greater expectations for myself.” 

For now, the formula is working. Get on base, score runs, play with energy – and trust that the rest follows.

Weekly Pebble Report: June 9th-14th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes: (1-5, 35-34 overall)

The Isotopes had a difficult week in Tacoma, dropping five of six games. In typical PCL fashion, the pitching struggled as the ‘Topes allowed nine or more runs in four of the six games they played. The lack of roster continuity has seemingly caught up with Albuquerque, as they’ve now dropped nine of their last 12 games. They now sit just one game above .500, and are 6.0 games back of first place in the PCL.

Stock UP: Charlie Condon

Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) appears to have found his stride as June reaches its midpoint. The highlight of his week came Friday, when he went 4-for-4 with two home runs, five RBIs, and two walks. The 23-year-old has posted a 1.003 OPS across 12 games this month and is showing increasing comfort in the outfield.

Stock Down: Valente Bellozo (3.0 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 2 K, 3 BB)

Valente Bellozo endured another difficult outing in Tacoma this week, as the stat line reflects. It’s a troubling trend for the right-hander, who has allowed 14 earned runs over just 8.1 innings across his last three appearances.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats: (5-2, 35-27 overall)

The Yard Goats continue to grind out wins, largely on the strength of their pitching staff. Strong performances from Jackson Cox and Jack Mahoney led the way this week, helping Hartford maintain the second-best record in the Eastern League.

Stock UP: Jack Mahoney

Jack Mahoney was phenomenal in his lone start this week. The University of South Carolina product tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just one hit while striking out 10 and issuing no walks. Mahoney has been nothing short of excellent since returning from the IL, posting a 0.83 ERA across five starts for Double-A Hartford in 2026.

Stock UP: Jackson Cox

2022 second-round pick Jackson Cox made his Double-A debut this week and appeared to have no trouble with the transition. The 22-year-old right-hander turned in 5.1 strong innings, allowing just three hits while striking out eight in Hartford’s 11-1 victory on Friday. His dominant performance provided an encouraging first glimpse of what he can bring to the Yard Goats’ rotation.

High-A: Spokane Indians (4-2, 27-36 overall)

After a 2-4 start to June, the Indians bounced back in a big way during their trip to Eugene, taking four of six from the league-leading Emeralds to climb back to .500 on the month. It was no easy task, as four of the six contests were decided by a single run. Despite the strong showing, Spokane remains in fifth place in the Northwest League, 14 games behind first-place Eugene.

Stock UP: Max Belyeu

Max Belyeu enjoyed nothing short of a monster week at the plate. The No. 15 PuRP prospect recorded two multi-homer games, driving in seven runs and scoring eight more over the course of the six-game series. The 2025 draft pick now owns a 1.199 OPS in June and continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the system.

Stock UP: Ethan Hedges

Hedges, another member of the Rockies’ 2025 draft class, found success against Eugene this week. The former third-round pick recorded a pair of three-hit performances and slashed .364 over 22 at-bats during the six-game series.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (3-3, 33-30 overall)

Fresno remained three games above .500 and within four games of first place in the California League after a 3-3 week. While the results have cooled somewhat of late, with the Grizzlies going 6-6 in June, they have continued to stay afloat despite being without Ethan Holliday, Derek Bernard, and Clayton Gray.

Stock UP: Bryson Van Sickle

In a week that wasn’t exactly chock-full of storylines in Low-A, Bryson Van Sickle’s performance was impossible to ignore. The Grizzlies reliever tossed seven scoreless innings across two appearances, allowing just two hits while striking out 11. His dominant week earned him California League Pitcher of the Week honors.

Arizona Complex League: ACL Rockies (3-1, 23-8 overall)

The ACL Rockies remained atop the Arizona Complex League standings after a 3-1 week, highlighted by a 22-hit, 22-run outburst on Thursday. Through 31 games, they lead the ACL with a remarkable +90 run differential, further cementing their status as one of the league’s most dominant clubs.

Stock UP: Alessander De La Cruz

The 20-year-old German native enjoyed what was arguably his best four-game stretch of the season, going 9-for-17 (.529) with four extra-base hits, five RBIs, and six runs scored. He was a key contributor in the ACL Rockies’ 22-2 victory on Thursday, finishing 4-for-5 with a double, two walks, two RBIs, and two runs scored.

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The Atlanta Braves are headed home and will face the San Francisco Giants after arguably their worst stretch of the season.

The good news is that the Giants are not good this year, and Drake Baldwin will be back for this series. Time will tell on the Baldwin return if he is back to full strength, but what we do know is that the Braves lack of rotation depth due to injuries is starting to rear its head.

Because of the state of injuries, it appears that Grant Holmes will be getting another start, even though he has proven that he gets absolutely rocked the second he faces a hitter the second time through. The first time Holmes faces a hitter in a game they are averaging a slash line of .187/.256/.280, which is excellent. The second time in a game he faces a hitter they are averaging a slash line of .317/.391/.663. When every single hitter you face averages MVP numbers the second time you face them, that is a recipe for disaster.

If Holmes does indeed get the start (the Braves have swayed recently from their probable pitchers), it will be shocking if Didier Fuentes does not come in to pitch in a long relief role early in the game. Ritchie would potentially have this long relief role if it were not for the Strider injury. Of all the Giants hitters, only four have faced Holmes before and none of them have more than five at-bats. Rafael Devers leads the team with those five at-bats, and he has a .400 average in that span.

Fortunately for the Braves they will be facing Adrian Houser in the midst of arguably the worst season of his career. His 5.54 ERA is the second worst of his career and his 1.538 WHIP is his worst of his career. His expectancy stats (XSTATS) paint the picture that he can’t blame bad luck on his poor performance either. His xERA so far has been 5.44, which is good for bottom 13.0 percent of qualified pitchers. Pretty much every stat that matters is in the bottom 13.0 percent or worse. The only thing he has going for him is his slightly above league average walk rate of 8.1 percent.

Of the players on the Braves’ active roster, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies have faced Houser the most with seventeen and sixteen at-bats respectively. Both players have seen success with Riley hitting .471 with a HR and Albies hitting .375 with a .974 OPS. Michael Harris has a much smaller sample with eight at-bats but has an average of .375 in that span. Surprisingly, Matt Olson has struggled in his eleven at-bats against Houser where he has only hit .182 with a .630 OPS.

The Braves could really use a boost offensively as they have only scored more runs than three other MLB teams in the month of June.

First pitch is at 7:15 EDT

Game Info

Game Time: Tuesday, June 16th, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, , Atlanta, Ga

Watch: BravesVision / Gray TV

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

One of the reasons I felt good about the Kansas City Royals coming into the season was that I was extremely impressed by what we saw from Carter Jensen in September of last year. Jensen came up to the majors and immediately looked like one of the best hitters on the team, sporting a .300/.390/.550 slash line, good for a wRC+ of 159. It wasn’t just the results, but how he achieved them. The left-handed hitter drew nine walks compared to 12 strikeouts and flashed a sweet swing at the plate with some outstanding power. I didn’t expect Jensen to be 60% above league average as a hitter again, but I assumed he would be above average at the plate and behind it as a catcher, which would make him a very valuable player even as a rookie.

Jensen has not been the most disappointing player on the Royals this season – that title can be shared with Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Lucas Erceg, in my opinion. But 40% of the way through the season, he has been a replacement-level player, which falls well short of expectations.

On one hand, this is not particularly surprising. It’s hard to be a rookie in MLB and live up to the expectations that us overeager fans can put on the players. Jensen currently has an 81 wRC+, which is disappointing given what he did last year but right in line with rookie catcher averages.

It’s hard for hitters to adjust to major-league pitching in their first extended taste of the big leagues when pitchers get a chance to study their tendencies and find weaknesses to exploit. That adjustment can be extra difficult on catchers, since they are also spending a lot of time learning on the defensive side of the ball as well.

The biggest sign of pitchers adjusting to Jensen is his increased strikeout percentage. Jensen is striking out in 28.8% of his plate appearances this season after only striking out in 17.4% last season. The catcher is swinging and missing at more pitches; his swinging strike percentage has gone from 10.9% to 12.4%. He is also looking at more pitches in the zone; his called strike percentage is up from 13% in 2025 to 16.5% in 2026.

Looking over Jensen’s Baseball Savant page gives us some more clues as to what might be contributing to the increase in strikeout rate and the adjustments that the 22-year-old will hopefully make as he continues to improve and adjust to MLB pitching. Statcast labels pitches thrown in the middle zone of the plate as “Meatballs,” and these are generally pitches that you want to swing at. Last season, the catcher swung at 79.2% of meatballs, which is above the major-league average of 76.2%. This season, Jensen is only swinging at 68.4% of meatballs.

I appreciate that he is attempting to take pitches and work the count, but this looks like a hitter being a little too cautious and not aggressive enough to me. I think if Jensen can get back to the level of aggressiveness on good pitches to hit that he found last season, he will both strikeout less and start making better contact. That seems achievable and something that should get better with time. I’m not worried currently about Jensen’s future ability at the plate, but for this season we may be watching more of him trying to figure out how to make good swing decisions against the best pitchers in the world.

It’s been the defensive side of the ball for Jensen that has stood out to me most when watching the Royals this season, particularly his blocking. Among 69 qualified catchers, Jensen is second-to-last (only above Logan O’Hoppe) in blocking runs above-average with -7 catching runs. Statcast estimates that Jensen should have 11 wild pitches + passed balls based on the quality of pitches he has received, but instead the catcher has 18. The rookie has struggled in particularly with balls low and to his left, which is a pitch that needs to be blocked to help your pitchers go for strikeouts. He’s had some truly awful blocking attempts. If the Royals were competitive this season, I’d feel like a Carter Jensen passed ball would be a Chekhov’s Gun just sitting there for a clutch moment. It doesn’t look like we will need to worry about it sabotaging this season, however, as there has been plenty of sabotage to go around.

The catcher does have some positive qualities behind the dish. He’s been slightly above-average as a framer, and has been much better than Perez at framing this season. Jensen has a quick pop time is currently in the 80th percentile in Caught Stealing Above Average. His overall defense as a catcher has been around replacement level despite giving away 8 runs with his poor blocking skills, so any improvement to his ability to block pitches is going to make his defense a net positive.

Jensen is skilled and athletic enough to figure out how to move to his left and block tough pitches. I believe that anyone who can make this catch can improve on their blocking ability:

We’ve also seen Bobby Witt Jr. make remarkable strides on defense after a difficult rookie campaign, so we know it can be done. Research by Tom Hanrahan has shown that catchers get better at handling pitchers after their rookie season, which is both encouraging and a reminder that Jensen is juggling a lot by leading off and catching as much as he is.

The struggles Jensen is currently working through seem like solvable issues and somewhat normal for a rookie catcher. I’m still optimistic about his future with the Royals, but watching him so far this season has reminded me that it’s tough to make the leap from Triple-A to MLB, and that I should have factored in more growing pains when estimating how the Royals would perform this season. Jensen looks like a rookie catcher out there, and at least so far, my expectations for something more were overly optimistic.

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Everyone’s favorite quick hitters. I found a couple of first-inning props that should get the sweat going to kick off the evening while still delivering a full thrill ride. 

Let's dive into my favorite NRFI predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, June 16.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - YRFI	-126
/ - NRFI	-142
/ - NRFI	-131

Giants at Braves: YRFI (-126)

One of my favorite matchups on the board today has the potential to produce a ton of runs, and we are all over the YRFI in this one, folks.

San Francisco Giants right-hander Adrian Houser takes the mound against an Atlanta Braves lineup that features seven hitters with at least a strongly rated matchup. Houser also enters the day as the lowest-rated pitcher on Batters-Box, so we have to be rooting for runs here. Through 13 starts this season, he owns a 9.00 ERA in the first inning, while allowing opposing hitters to slash .302/.409/.698.

Things do not get much better for Braves right-hander Grant Holmes, who owns the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate. He will have to navigate a Giants lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters and two more with strongly rated matchups. Through 13 starts, Holmes has posted a 4.83 first-inning ERA, allowing eight runs in those appearances.

With a combined nine elite-rated hitters and three strongly rated hitters in this matchup, I think the -126 price tag makes a lot of sense. I would be comfortable playing this up to -130.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, NBCSBA

Blue Jays at Red Sox: NRFI (-142)

Back-to-back weeks taking an NRFI featuring Boston Red Sox right-hander Payton Tolle, who draws a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has not been making much hard contact or barreling the baseball over its last 12 road games. Meanwhile, Tolle has been nails in the first inning, posting a 2.00 ERA while allowing just two runs through nine starts. Opposing hitters are batting only .194 with a .242 OBP and .419 SLG against him in the opening frame.

On the other side, Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease has also been tremendous in the first inning, sporting a 3.00 ERA while allowing just five runs across 12 starts. Opposing hitters are batting .217 with a .280 OBP and .413 SLG. Cease also gets the luxury of facing a lineup that does not feature a single elite or strong-rated hitter in the current season timeframe ratings at Batters-Box.

Additionally, the Red Sox lineup features eight hitters with strikeout rates above league average and seven hitters with ground-ball rates above league average.

Sure, -142 is a heavily juiced price for an NRFI, but I would still play it at anything near this number. You could also consider pairing it with another prop from today's card.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, Sportsnet

White Sox at Yankees: NRFI (-131)

Series of the week, and I am rooting for a pitching duel in Game 1 between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees, as Gerrit Cole and Davis Martin take the bump for their respective teams.

The White Sox enter this matchup after taking down two of the National League's best, winning a series against the Dodgers this past weekend and the Braves in the series prior. Can they keep the momentum rolling against a red-hot ace?

Early on, I am leaning toward Cole recording a clean first inning. Through four starts this season, nobody has been able to touch him in the opening frame. He owns a 0.00 ERA, while opposing hitters are batting just .083 against him.

Martin has been impressive in the first inning as well. Through 13 starts, he has allowed only two runs in the opening frame, with opposing hitters batting .191 and carrying a .255 slugging percentage.

I am expecting some offensive regression from the White Sox following their first series win over the Dodgers since 2014. Meanwhile, with Aaron Judge out of the Yankees lineup, I think Martin can navigate the first inning cleanly and get in and out without any damage.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, CHSN

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The Mariners return home after a rough road trip with some reinforcements waiting to join the squad. The return of both Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford should alleviate some of the issues plaguing the team over the last few weeks by lengthening the lineup. There are still issues on the pitching staff — Andrés Muñoz’s back issue that forced him from the game on Sunday being the most concerning — but the roster definitely looks a lot stronger with the M’s superstar catcher back on board. 

After splitting a four-game series in Baltimore last week, the Orioles make the trip out to the West Coast this week to wrap up the season series against the Mariners. If you watched any of that series, you’re already familiar with what the O’s bring to the table — nothing much has changed in the four days since these two teams met last.

The biggest change to the O’s lineup already happened last Thursday when Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo returned from their respective minor injuries that had held them out of the first three games of that series in Baltimore. Otherwise, I’ll just paste in what Isabelle wrote about the team below:

The Orioles currently have the fifth-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-highest walk rate paired with some distinctly middle-of-the-road contact numbers. It’s also worth noting that only four players have accrued 200+ plate appearances at this point, indicative of intermittent injury struggles and some reclamation projects. Former AL Rookie of the Year contender and longtime light at the end of the Bad Years in Baltimore Tunnel, Adley Rutschman (“play badly for Adley” is a clever little ditty that will live on in my brain for eternity) had a torrid start, but has cooled in recent weeks. Gunnar Henderson is being propped up by his good defense, Taylor Ward is as annoyingly-decent as ever, and former “friend” Leody Taveras has slashed his strikeout rate by third, which makes him a reasonably functional big leaguer. Their big offensive signing, Pete Alonso, petrified everyone with his frigid start, but he’s since been about what you would expect. Other names to note are Samuel Basallo, their younger, better (?) catcher who had a scorching month at the plate in May; Jackson Holliday, former top prospect and eternal nepo baby, who started the season on the injured list; and Coby Mayo, pressed into service at third after Jordan Westburg’s season-ending elbow surgery.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

Brandon Young graduated from the Orioles’ development pipeline last year after landing sixth on their 2025 prospect list. He’s got above average skills across the board but no clear carrying tool to push his profile above a back-end starter. His fastball is probably his best pitch, though he’s introduced a new slider this year that shows a lot of promise. He’ll also mix in a curveball and a splitter to keep left-handed batters at bay. His strikeout rate isn’t all that impressive, but he’s found some success by limiting the amount of hard contact he allows.

From a previous series preview:

Kyle Bradish looked like he had made the jump to ace-dom back in 2024 but Tommy John surgery derailed his breakout. He returned to the mound late last year and looked like he was ready to pick up exactly where he left off. Things haven’t gone so smoothly this season, however. The key to his success all those years ago were his two breaking balls. His curveball has looked fine this year, but his slider has been knocked around a bunch. The effectiveness of his sinker has also waned a bit because he’s struggled to locate that pitch in the zone. That’s led to a pretty big jump in walk rate to go along with a much lower strikeout rate.

The Orioles traded for Shane Baz this offseason in an effort to bolster their rotation and then signed him to a five-year, $68 million extension after his first start with the ballclub. At one point, Baz was a highly regarded prospect in Tampa Bay’s organization but Tommy John surgery derailed much of his development. Over the last two years since returning from that injury, he’s been merely average rather than transcendent like many thought he’d be as a prospect. With Baltimore, he added a sinker to his repertoire and emphasized his excellent curveball at the expense of his four-seam fastball. It’s a good trade off in theory but he’s struggled through an up-and-down season so far. His strikeout rate is down six points and left-handed batters in particular are crushing his pitches.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics had a weird week in Las Vegas last week, winning four of six on that special “homestand” but losing their game on Sunday by a score of 23-9 against the Rockies. The team returned to Sacramento last night and beat up on the Pirates in the first game of a three game set against Pittsburgh. The Rangers wound up salvaging a single win in their weekend series against the Red Sox but lost the first game of a series against the Twins last night.

The Jays made a trade yesterday. Connor Seabold, who was DFAed, was traded to the Royals for minor league pitcher Denis Samudio and cash.

Samudio is a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher from Panama. He was pitching in the Arizona Complex League (the Arizona equivalent to the Florida Coast League). He’s a little old for that league. He was signed as an international free agent before the 2025 season.

There is a sentence about him in the FanGraphs KC prospects list.

Samudio was an older signee who performed on the complex last year. He throws strikes and touches 95 with some of the best vertical break in the system.

He’s pitched 5.2 innings this year with 3 hits, 2 earned runs (3 unearned), 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. I’d say he was a lottery pick, but anyone who can throw 95 at the start of his professional career might be interesting to watch. He’s been assigned to the Dunedin Blue Jays.

Turning to Seabold, he pitched in 5 games for us in the rotating last-man-in-the-pen role. In 3.1 innings, he allowed 6 hits, 3 earned, 2 walks, and 1 strikeout. He’s played parts of five years in the majors with six different teams (he’s been in nine different organizations). When you are out of options, and you are on the bubble, that’s how things go.

Looking ahead, we have three games in Boston starting tonight.

Starting Pitchers:

• Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91) vs. Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70).
• Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23) vs. Jake Bennett (1-2, 5.28). If I were a betting man, I’d take the over on this game.
• Trey Yesavage (3.3, 3.78) vs. Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03)

How long do they keep going with Max? You know the answer is ‘Longer than we’d like’. But, if he’s crushed again today, I don’t see the point in starting him over Spencer Miles. Neither one is going to get you through 5 innings, but at least Miles could get us there while still within a one-possession game. Or he could come out when Shane Bieber is ready to return (which could be next week).

I get that it is a little more delicate when you are dealing with a future Hall of Famer, but having a starter with an ERA over 10 is not something you can sustain.

We have two players leading their position in All-Star voting. Ernie Clement and Vladimir Guerrero. Ernie deserves to go. Vlad…..not so much. But I do remember Davey Lopes getting voted into the All-Star Game despite a poor season. When asked about it, he said something like, ‘I’m not sure who the All-Star Game is for, the players or the fans.‘ Suggesting that, if it were for the players, his getting voted in would be a bad thing. If it is for the fans, well, they should get the players they want to see.

I remember, even then, not caring about the All-Star game, but thinking it was wrong that Dodgers fans voted more than anyone else, so more of their players went than truly deserved.

Vlad is a personality who will make the game more fun. If you have voting, you sometimes get the wrong person.

Elsewhere in the organization, Ricky Tiedeman pitched today in the FCL, starting the road back, throwing one inning, 5 batters, 2 hits, 1 earned, 2 strikeouts.

I was curious to look; the Jays have had 11 successful sac bunts, one more than league average. That’s only 11 too many. The Rays are at the top with 22. The Yankees have just 1. I hate things that make me want to like Aaron Boone. Fortunately, there are many reasons not to like him.

We are fourth in sac flies with 21; the Royals are on top with 29, the A’s at the bottom with 12.

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Full slate on tap tonight with plenty to dig into.

Here are my favorite MLB player props from the board, featuring some heavy hitters who have been seeing the ball extremely well lately.

See why Juan Soto and others are primed for big offensive performances on Tuesday, June 16.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Juan Soto	Over 1.5 total bases	-118
Kody Clemens	Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI	-113
Bobby Witt Jr.	Over 1.5 total bases	-128

Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-118)

Run it back. Juan Soto did not cash for us last night, going 0-for-2 with two walks, but tonight sets up as a strong bounce-back spot.

The New York Mets slugger draws an even better matchup against Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, who has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters. At home this season against lefties, opposing bats are hitting .362 with a .621 SLG and a .442 wOBA, while lifting the ball 60.5% of the time.

Singer also grades out as one of the weakest arms on the slate, sitting second-worst in Batters-Box’s current season dataset with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout rate.

Soto brings one of the highest arsenal coverage profiles among elite-rated hitters on the slate, covering 92.2% of Singer’s pitch mix. He has also been heating up over the last stretch, posting a .922 OPS with 52.4% hard contact and a 9.5% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

The numbers point toward the over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs, but the price is steep. The cleaner approach is either taking his bases or going straight to a double or homer angle if you want more upside.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, SNY

Kody Clemens Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-113)

Have I found my new favorite player? Maybe. He has only come through for me once so far, but Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens is in a strong spot against Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker, against whom he owns a 100% arsenal coverage.

Rocker has struggled at home against lefties, allowing a 70.6% elevation rate and 44.1% hard contact, while giving up a .425 slugging and .332 wOBA. Overall this season, left-handed hitters have posted a .302 xBA, .529 xSLG, and .359 xwOBA against him, while generating 53.2% hard contact.

Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Clemens has been rolling, hitting .345 with a .862 SLG and 1.229 OPS, along with a 50% hard contact rate and a 16% barrel rate.

Getting an elite-rated hitter who is swinging it like this, with this level of arsenal coverage, below -120 is a gift. I would take this up to -125 if I had to.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, MNNT

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-128)

Mr. Bobby Witt Jr., the pride of the Kansas City Royals, shows up every single day for his team. Now, the question is, does he show up for us?

Witt has been locked in against left-handed pitching for a while now, posting a .321 average with a .921 OPS, along with 61.5% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate. He draws Washington Nationals southpaw Foster Griffin, who has struggled against right-handed bats this season.

Over his last 60 batters faced, those hitters are producing a 46.5% hard contact rate, 14% barrel rate, with a .335 xBA, .696 xSLG, and .341 xwOBA.

Against Griffin’s pitch mix, Witt carries a 92.7% arsenal coverage rating, per Batters-Box. He also grades out strong in this spot, and over the last three seasons in 54 strong-rated spots, he has cleared this prop 50% of the time.

I am interested here, but I would not chase this at a bad number. If you cannot get it below -130, I would rather pivot to his double or home run look straight instead.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NATS, ROYL

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Nearly halfway into the season, the Orioles remain a frustratingly inconsistent team. At times they look great and capable of beating the best teams. Other times they are unable to avoid making silly mistakes against lesser teams and they waste opportunities to stack up wins against that level of competition. At 34-39, it feels like they should be hopelessly out of the race, but, with the state of the AL being what it is this year, they are only 2.5 games out. If they can ever go on a 5+ game winning streak, they should be in a good position.

The trade deadline is still about a month and a half away. In this week’s survey, I want to know where you think this team will land in this back and forth. Will they stay close enough to be buyers, or are they going to fall out and end up as sellers for a second consecutive year?

There is also the Mike Elias track record to consider. He made the 2022 team into sellers even after their July resurgence, an unpopular decision that prompted him to say “it’s liftoff from here,” which I suspect nearly four years later he regrets having said. Even if Elias ends up buying, he’s unlikely to be as aggressive as fans would like. But that’s not the question. Just break it down: Do they buy or do they sell?

Recent Orioles play is probably going to lean the responses in one direction. In asking this question, I’m more interested in seeing how lopsided it is. Perhaps the votes will surprise me. It’s happened before.

(Note: Stats here through June 14, which only matters for comparing the Braves to other teams. In an ideal world, I’d either do this on the 16th, or during the day on the 14th, but we live in something very far from an ideal world.)

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome

I have a colleague that uses the word “correction” a lot. It’s notable because I don’t think she really means “correction” when she says it, but she’s incredible precise with her language, so it stands out. This seems kind of opaque without context, but essentially, any time something breaks a trend or is an unusual micro-pattern within a broader, different macro-pattern, there she goes with “correction.” 2008? Economic correction. Post-pandemic drop in crime? Correction. Maybe “correction” is right, or at least fine. In any case, when talking about the Braves in June, you can see why the word haunts me a bit.

The bottom line is that whether the Braves were good, bad, or mediocre, a 6-5 record over two weeks of play isn’t weird. 6-5 is like, the default record. If a team constantly went 6-5, i.e., splitting ten games and winning the 11th, that’s basically 15 “free” wins over a .500 record, which means an 88-win season. Incidentally, 88 wins is not too far off from what the Braves were projected to do preseason (90ish by FanGraphs’ Steamer/ZiPS blend, lower by stuff like ZiPS alone). So, 6-5 — don’t call it a correction. Or… do?

Because, well, before June, the Braves weren’t playing at an 88-win pace. They also weren’t getting particularly lucky in racking up the victories. They also went 5-1 through their first two series in June… only to run into a very unfortunate road trip that saw them lose likely their two most talented (or at least, highest-ceiling, highest-variance because of that high ceiling) players to injury, and go 1-4 in the process. Whoops.

Is it a correction to go from a 108-win pace to a 105-win pace? (No?) What about from a 110-win pace to a 105-win pace (also probably not). What about from a projected 95-win team estimated to play at an 87-win clip the rest of the way on May 31, to a projected 94-win team estimated to play at an 86-win clip the rest of the way, as of June 15? Well, now I’m just throwing out a bunch of rhetorical questions. The bottom line: the Braves had a bad week. They didn’t bank wins at their previous, breakneck pace. They also suffered some injuries that will make winning harder in the future. Both of those kind of sucked, but they still have MLB’s best record. I guess the message is that if you expect them to play as they have, chances are, your perspective could use a correction. If you expect them to play as a good-not-great team given their surfeit of injuries and the usual talent variations, chances are you won’t get whiplash… and if you do, it’ll be the pleasant kind.

How did the Braves do recently?

Well, that was a very long, 500-word intro. Right to the stats, then. Believe it or not, going 6-5 for a month is a top half performance in MLB. Their production, though, was kinda worse — given what they did, you’d expect them to have gone 5-6 or maybe even 4-7. So, it could’ve been worse. You’ll see what I mean, namely…

• After finishing in the top ten in position player value in both April and May, the Braves are literally dead last in MLB in position player value so far in June. They’re 29th in batting outputs, 28th in batting inputs, and 12th in defensive value.
• On the flip side, the pitching has actually been pretty good. Or, at least, fortunate. Seventh in fWAR (rotation 19th, bullpen eighth, kind of a weird combo but there it is)… but a rankwise breakdown of ninth in ERA-, fifth in FIP-, and 15th in xFIP-. HR/FB on the pitching side comes to the rescue when the bats slumber, I guess. Thanks, HR/FB!

Using game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone somewhere around 5-6 or 6-5, so what they actually did isn’t that surprising. But again, that’s because game-by-game odds will generally slam every team in that .500ish range, since that’s kind of how baseball works. That said, in true double-you-tee-eff fashion, the Braves somehow both lost the game where they were most-favored in this two-week stretch (Chris Sale against the Jays at home), but won the game where they were least-favored (Martin Perez against the Mets in New York). Baseball, man. Weirdly, the Braves are 1-2 in the three games with their pre-game odds over 60 percent, but they’re also 2-3 in games with their pre-game odds below 42 percent.

How did the Braves do recently?

Look, you can’t be dead last at a big thing like position player production for two weeks and not have it mess with your rankings a bit. But, given that two months were in the books before this span, maybe only a bit. Every team has a stumble for a week, it’s a long season.

• The Braves are now seventh in position player value. They’re third in batting inputs, seventh in batting outputs, and seventh in defensive production.
• The Braves are now 12th in pitching value (19th rotation, third bullpen). They have baseball’s best ERA- (still), but are 12th in FIP- and 10th in xFIP-.

How are the hitters doing?

Heh. Well…

It was a good two weeks for Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon… and throw Matt Olson in too if you count “getting super-lucky without doing much to earn it,” too. Aside from Michael Harris II, it was a bad-to-horrific two weeks for everyone else, which is how you get that last-in-MLB-for-two-weeks demerit. Also, note that of the guys who didn’t meet the 17 PA cutoff I’m using for these biweekly check-ins, everyone else was horrendous, too, except for Eli White. The Braves were basically getting half a lineup’s worth of anything over these last two weeks, and that’s not enough.

For the season as a whole, the performance is still pretty strong. Harris and Olson continue to play like surefire All-Stars, Dubon’s defensively-buoyed profile is working as his bat has been fine, and Albies, who legitimately hit well over these two weeks, is combining luck and a defensive resurgence to getting back to good rather than merely playable-ish. Still, the awful June so far has been a drag on a lot of guys. If this keeps up, the Braves will probably have to explore more than just the usual starter/reliever/right-handed bat at the Trade Deadline — they’ll probably stick with Austin Riley, but Yastrzemski might be playing himself out of a permanent strong side platoon fixture, and Dominic Smith can’t afford too many more two-week stretches like the one he just had before he tumbles into 2026 Riley territory value-wise.

Sandy Leon, man. He’s not there to hit but the hitting has been… really far away from basically anyone else, even when the team is struggling.

Another shoutout to Dubon, who not only led the position players in WPA in this two-week stretch, but literally tripled the next-closest WPA tally… which belongs to White, of all people.

How are the pitchers doing?

Not much surprising here. Martin Perez (from the top rope, somehow) switched places with Bryce Elder in the “huh, that was a really good two starts” this time around.

The Braves’ rotation is, in the end, in a really weird place. Chris Sale is Chris Sale, no need for further discussion but for continued gawking at how good he is. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez have both been surprising in their own way; even if Elder is regressing, maybe Perez will simply swap places with him in terms of an arm being more-than-useful for longer than a two-week stretch. Grant Holmes and Spencer Strider were both awful in two outings, but despite Holmes’ horrendous performance after nine batters and the Strider Saga we’ve all come to know and dread, those guys aren’t doing horrendously on the season… except for the homers. On the season as a whole, the Braves haven’t had horrendous HR/FB problems… but the rotation is creeping up there, given what happened to Elder, Holmes, and Strider over the last few weeks.

On the bullpen front, there’s not much of note, other than Didier Fuentes continuing to thrive. Both he and Robert Suarez had three shutdowns and no meltdowns while making five appearances each. Their efforts are a big reason as to how the Braves were even able to manage to go 6-5 in a stretch where only one starter (and not Chris Sale) amassed positive WPA while pitching.

Here’s a weirdo factoid: the Braves have four relievers that already have 0.8 fWAR or more. There are 18 of those guys in baseball right now, period. A majority of teams don’t even have one. The Braves do have this odd issue, where they probably need to use the bullpen more relative to their starters given the disarray in the rotation, but there’s such a steep dropoff between that fearsome quartet and everyone else that you can totally see them just tread water for a bit before they they either feel like they need to wheel hard toward a change in personnel and management, or someone emerges to fill the gap.

Anyway, see you at the end of the month, at which point I hopefully won’t be talking about any full-fledged swoon.