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Ernie Clement cashed his base total for a sixth time in his last seven games last night, and with a southpaw on the mound for Cleveland today, I’m expecting that trend to continue this afternoon.

Read on for my Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, April 25.

Guardians vs Blue Jays predictions

Guardians vs Blue Jays best bet: Ernie Clement O 1.5 total bases (+110)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement to go Over his base total has been a pretty safe bet over the past week, as he’s 6-1 to the Over in his last seven outings. 

Throughout this seven-game stretch, Clement is averaging 2.57 bases per game with six extra-base hits. 

With a hit rate like that, it’s too much value to pass up his bases total again at plus-money (+110).

Additionally, with Cleveland Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo on the mound, it’s a great matchup for Clement, too. He had a terrific .900 OPS against lefties last season and owns a .317 average against them again so far this year. 

Guardians vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

When Kevin Gausman has his splitter dancing, he’s nearly unhittable. This is often the case when facing this lineup, which owns just a .196 average against him with 26 K’s in 92 at-bats.

I’ll take the Over 5.5 strikeouts tonight for Gausman against a team that struggles against the splitter.

I’ll double down on the Gausman strikeout market by taking Guardians' Bo Naylor to strike out. He struggles against Gausman, going 0-5 in his career with three K’s.  

Guardians vs Blue Jays SGP

• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Bo Naylor Over 0.5 strikeouts

img loading="lazy" width="100%" height="null" src="https://img.covers.com/editorial/2026/jaysmlcbp.jpg" alt="Canada’s best price for Jays"

Guardians vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto. (+425)

I’ll make this a half-unit wager.

Cantillo has been prone to giving up quite a bit of power. He ranks in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 28th percentile in average exit velocity.

Enter Kazuma Okamoto. 

The Jays third-baseman owns a .571 batting average against lefties who throw him that pitch with a 60% hard hit rate. He also owns a 1.107 OPS over the last seven days. 

Guardians vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Cleveland +127 | Toronto -140
• Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-165) | Toronto -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Guardians vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Guardians vs Blue Jays and game info

Guardians vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Guardians vs Blue Jays weather

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Great news — Brent Rooker’s recovery from an oblique strain is way ahead of schedule, so much so that the A’s hinted he could be activated as soon as during this season. With the day off Monday, perhaps the more likely outcome is that Rooker rejoins the team Tuesday when they return home to take on the Kansas City Royals.

Getting Rooker back is definitely a plus for the A’s as he recently hit his 100th HR as an Athletic after just 3+ seasons in the green and gold. He was off to a slow start but was heating up and looking like his old self when he took the fateful swing that landed him on the IL.

Sure Rooker strikes out more than you would ideally like (28.1% for his career) and his slow starts make watching him the first couple weeks of the season painful. But the weakness he brings to a roster is not at the plate where overall you will take him and be glad he’s on your side.

Rooker is not a good fielder, capable of playing the corner outfield but severely limited in his range or overall acumen. His best position is DH, which works well so long as the rest of your players excel in the field. But the 2026 A’s are not built that way. They have multiple players who give back value in the field and you just hope they provide enough offense to make it worthwhile to start them.

The most glaring example is Max Muncy, whom optimists point out is still relatively new to 3B and whom pessimists rebut by noting that his range and his throwing arm have been concerns ever since he turned pro. But now Platinum Glove candidate Denzel Clarke has hit the IL leaving the A’s with outfield decisions to make, and suddenly plus outfield defense is no longer a given.

And there is the matter of Carlos Cortes. Cortes may not wow anyone with his glove but my oh my is he wowing with the bat. With each passing day he is becoming more and more indispensable and his success is looking less and less fluky or driven by small samples.

Cortes’ career body of work is still rooted in “small sample” territory with 161 PAs. Nonetheless, he is currently a career .320/.354/.573 hitter with a 14.9% K rate who only seems to be getting better as he gets more regular playing time.

A glance at Cortes’ Statcast page screams “not a fluke!” and he isn’t even profiling as a platoon player: so far this season Cortes has had 3 plate appearances against LHPs and has produced a single and 2 doubles. He’s 5 for 8 in his career thus far against southpaws.

It seems clear the A’s need to keep Cortes’ bat in the lineup until further notice, at least against RHPs, even though his recent work in RF in Seattle was frighteningly shaky and might have cost the A’s a chance to sweep the series. Right now his bat is so good you have to find a spot for him — even if the ideal one is about to be rightfully claimed by Rooker.

Options do abound for solving this conundrum, they just come with caveats of which we must be emptor. Here are some of the options for a primary alignment:

1. Rooker DH, Soderstrom LF, Butler CF, Cortes RF

This one feels likely and comes at a great cost: Butler is a poor defensive CFer (worse than you might think as he doesn’t get to balls that look like maybe they just weren’t reachable, but which most CFers catch thanks to a better read, route, and speed), and Cortes is certainly worse than Butler in RF. How much is not yet clear — he’s probably much better than he looked in the Seattle dome but he’s slow and a bit awkward in the field. So you have to sacrifice a fair amount of defense to get all 4 bats in the lineup, and one of them, Butler, isn’t even hitting so far this season.

2. Rooker DH, Soderstrom LF, Gelof CF, Cortes RF

This one might best balance keeping your outfield sufficiently speedy and athletic with finding spots for 3 of your best hitters. It also assumes Gelof is as solid as he looks so far in CF, and more significantly it assumes the A’s are willing to sit the outfielder they committed to, just a year ago, with a significant contract extension.

3. Rooker DH, Soderstrom LF, Gelof CF, Butler RF

This one feels unlikely since it puts 2 questionable hitters in the outfield and their best hitter, so far in 2026, on the bench. But Cortes was no more than a 4th outfielder coming into the season and this gives you the best defensive look, so it’s on the table as a “defense first” option that presumes Gelof and Butler might hit far better than they have in the recent past. Certainly both are talented and have shown, over a half season, flashes of brilliance at the plate.

You can find other iterations if you put Rooker in the outfield, but the A’s aren’t going to do that because he is pretty clearly the worst fielding outfielder of the bunch (-22 DRS/-18 OAA career). Cortes is clearly superior so no point in flipping them.

Does one of these 3 options feel to you like the best one, and if so does it seem realistic the A’s might choose it as their most common alignment on the upcoming homestand? Or is there a 4th option you favor, and think might be realistic?

One way or the other the A’s are going to faced with some difficult decisions around how they employ Butler and Cortes, how much they commit to Gelof, and whether they emphasize hitting or outfield defense. It’s a really nice problem to have to get Rooker back in the lineup — and it still creates problems that don’t have obvious or foolproof solutions.

What to do, what to do?

If I asked you to name a great single season from a player in Yankees’ history, you can probably come up with a few strong options. That player will probably also be a legend in franchise history. Feats like Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 with his 56-game hitting streak, Aaron Judge’s 62 homers in 2022, and Ron Guidry’s Cy Young 1978 probably come to mind first. Hell, any one of a number of Babe Ruth campaigns could be your answer.

The thing about individual seasons as opposed to great careers is that it’s possible to have an outstanding season and then somewhat fade back in obscurity. You’re more likely to be a pretty good player overall if you put up a great season, but random successes aren’t unheard of.

In Yankees history, Russ Ford had a couple solid campaigns in general, but then also had one of the best single pitching seasons in franchise history — despite being someone whose name you might not know. With today being his birthday, let’s look back on the original Ford pitching standout and his unbelievable 1910 season.

Russell William “Russ” Ford
Born: April 25, 1883 (Brandon, Manitoba, Canada)
Died: January 24, 1960 (Rockingham, NC)
Yankees Tenure: 1909-13

Born in 1883 to Walter and Ida Ford — the latter of whom was a second cousin of soon-to-be U.S. president Grover Cleveland — Russ Ford was born in Manitoba, Canada. In his childhood, the Ford family — which also featured Russ’ older brother and fellow future big league pitcher Gene — emigrated to the United States and eventually settled in Minneapolis.

While there, he caught the eyes of some teams, and began to pitch in the minor leagues after his schooling. Ford started off his baseball career with the Springfield Senators in 1905. He played the next couple season with them, the Cedar Rapids Rabbits, and the Atlanta Crackers. It was with Atlanta in 1908 where he figured something out that would forever change him as a pitcher.

One day in Atlanta in 1908, Ford was warming up before the game on what had been a rainy day. He was a little bit wild, and one pitch got away from the catcher and struck an upright on the stands which they had been throwing under. After the ball was returned to him, Ford started to notice some odd movement on his next couple throws. He examined the ball and noticed that it had been scuffed up a bit where it had hit the upright. He then started to grip the ball opposite the scuff, and suddenly began to see some severe movement, as he had discovered what was set to take him to the big leagues.

The then-New York Highlanders picked up Ford after the 1908 season, and he ended up making the roster out of spring training for 1909. Tabbed for his MLB debut in the 11th game of the season, Ford ate some innings after Highlanders starter Jack Quinn got knocked out early by the Red Sox. Ford went four innings that day, allowing six runs. Shortly after that, he was assigned to the minor leagues, joining the Jersey City Skeeters. He had a good season there, experimenting with using an emery board to scuff up the ball, leading to him returning to the big leagues for 1910, when he would have his legendary season.

With his emery pitch, Ford hit the ground running when he returned to the big leagues in 1910. After coming out of the bullpen once, he was given his first major league start on April 21st. Tasked holding down that year’s World Series champions, the Philadelphia Athletics, Ford fanned nine batters en route to a complete-game shutout victory. Of Ford’s first nine MLB starts, only one didn’t end in a Yankees win, as he racked up 51 strikeouts across them.

Arguably the most impressive outs of Ford’s rookie season came on July 19th. Facing off against the St. Louis Browns, Ford’s defense behind him let the pitcher down, as an error allowed St. Louis to score a run in the top of the first. After that, Ford was dominant, at one point retiring 19 hitters in a row. As the offense took and grew a lead, Ford continued his dominance, and still had allowed no hits as the game moved to the ninth inning.

After issuing a walk and then getting the first out of the inning, Ford allowed a blooper hit by Danny Hoffman that was headed towards shortstop. However, Highlanders shortstop Roxey Roach misjudged the fly ball, allowing it to gently drop in for a Browns hit. Ford got out of the inning after that, finishing with a one-hitter, but came incredibly close to a no-no, which would’ve been the first in Highlanders/Yankees franchise history.

In total, Ford finished his rookie season with a 26-6 record, a 1.65 ERA (160 ERA+), a 1.87 FIP, 209 strikeouts, and would’ve led the league with just 5.8 H/9, had that been a stat calculated at the time. MLB awards didn’t exist back then, but Ford would’ve been in strong consideration for several of them. He almost certainly would’ve been a Rookie of the Year lock, and while this was the Walter Johnson Era and a Cy Young would’ve been a longshot, he would’ve earned some down-ballot consideration for that and the MVP. Ford’s 26 victories that season also set an AL rookie record, which still stands and will likely never be broken.

From 1911-13, Ford was still somewhere between good and very good, but he never quite matched 1910 again. He dealt with arm fatigue in 1913, which led to the Highlanders/Yankees’ contract offer for 1914 including a sizeable pay cut. That led him to leave the team and jump to the newly founded Federal League with the Buffalo Buffeds. He looked the part in 1914, leading the FL in a number of pitching stats.

However, the leagues all began to ban the use of the emery ball, and that plus Ford’s injury issues led to a massive drop-off in 1915. The Federal League also disbanded after 1915, and no AL or NL team were interested in the pitcher. He played in the minors before a few years but could never get back to close to his best. He eventually left baseball and move to his wife’s native North Carolina, where he passed away in 1960. Years later, the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame honored the Manitoba-born Ford by inducting him in 1989.

Ford was not remotely good enough for long enough to merit induction to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, but that one season in 1910 is a better single season than many Hall of Famers have ever had.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Game time was moved up due to inclement weather. Can this be the shakeup that begins to turn things around for the Sox? We’ll just have to see how this plays out.

How to Watch and Listen

First pitch is at 12:05 PM ET on NESN and WEEI.

Lineups

A Saturday matinee. pic.twitter.com/8lXQowQY5T

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) April 25, 2026

Overall, I think Blake Butera has done a solid job in his first few weeks as Nats manager. Sure, there are some bullpen decisions you could question, but he does not have many great options. However, I thought the Nats first year manager showed his inexperience in a big way last night.

Clearly there was a script to use both Miles Mikolas and Riley Cornelio. After opener PJ Poulin surprisingly got five outs, the ball was handed to Mikolas. The veteran right hander was solid, going 3.2 innings, allowing 2 runs. He was not outstanding, but he gave the Nats a chance to win.

When Mikolas ran into trouble in the 6th inning, Butera turned to Richard Lovelady, not the debuting Cornelio. That move made sense as there was a stack of left handed hitters coming up. The Nats got out of that inning only allowing one run, which set up the 7th inning.

With the Nats holding a 3-2 lead, Butera had a choice. He could either stick to the script and use Cornelio, or use more traditional high leverage relievers. Butera turned to Cornelio, which ended up being a mistake. It was just an unfair spot to put the kid into. Cornelio is a starter by trade, and does not really have experience in the bullpen.

He was inevitably over-amped and did not have his command in this outing. After walking the first two batters of his career, Cornelio then made an error on a bunt hit to him. The White Sox ended up taking the lead in that inning. After the Nats tied the game in the top of the 8th, Butera should have turned to another reliever. I get the plan was to use Cornelio for multiple innings, but it was pretty clear the kid did not have it.

Instead, Butera kept Cornelio in the game. Just like his first inning, Cornelio was erratic and allowed the go-ahead run to score. This was a situation where Butera should have used some feel instead of sticking with a script that was not working.

Blake Butera saw the 7th inning and decided to bring Cornelio back out for the 8th…

This is a really rough couple days for Blake Butera.#Natitude

— SleeperNationals (@SleeperNats) April 25, 2026

That was not the only mistake Butera made last night either. He tried to run the first and third play again, this time with nobody out. It is pretty clear that teams know the Nats have that play in their back pocket. Butera has lost the element of surprise and probably should not run that play for a while.

He also elected not to pinch hit for Nasim Nunez in the top of the 9th inning in a one run game. I get Joey Wiemer and Curtis Mead are better against lefties, but I have more faith in them to make something happen than Nunez. Overall, it was just a rough night for Butera.

The biggest mistake was that Cornelio move though. It was just unfair to the kid, who was clearly emotional after the game. Putting a debuting starting pitcher in a high leverage relief role is just not a smart idea, and it predictably backfired.

The Nationals decided to throw Riley Cornelio into the fire tonight, and it didn’t go well for the rookie, who was holding back tears after taking the loss. https://t.co/4J6vLq9Lpr

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) April 25, 2026

I do not want to rag on Butera too much. I still like Butera as a manager and think he has brought much needed energy to this clubhouse. His youthful enthusiasm is something that has been missing for a couple years now. However, he showed his inexperience last night and hopefully he can learn from his mistake.

The latest news on the Houston Astros and from around MLB:

Some injury updates for the Astros:

Tatsuya Imai threw a bullpen today and “looked good,” manager Joe Espada said.
His next step is a Minor League rehab outing.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 24, 2026

Tatsuya Imai threw 45 pitches in the bullpen today.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 24, 2026

LHP Bennett Sousa will likely be activated tomorrow

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 24, 2026

Astros injury updates: pic.twitter.com/g8psCWbJFn

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) April 24, 2026

What’s behind Yordan’s smashing start?

Yordan Alvarez is pulling the ball at a career-high rate early this season. Astros staff view that not as a conscious effort but a byproduct of other things Alvarez is doing to fuel his torrid start: https://t.co/OhJv2YPgI3

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) April 25, 2026

Yordan Alvarez has crushed the ball tonight pic.twitter.com/9jxfVP2J1q

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

Lance McCullers tried something new to get a better start in the 1st inning. It didn’t work:

Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. changed up his routine pregame with hopes of some better results in the first inning. pic.twitter.com/Bvs1ki5Pcd

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

How ugly was it for Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Yankees Friday? Only 5 swings and misses.

Lance McCullers Jr. against the Yankees: 5+ IP, 6 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 92 pitches, 51 strikes, 31 swings, 5 whiffs, 95.4 mph average exit velocity. After five starts and 25.1 innings, McCullers' ERA is 6.75

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 25, 2026

There’s always a cool down phase after a hot phase. Cam Smith is freezing.

Since his four-hit game on April 11, Cam Smith is 5-for-37.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

None of these numbers are good:

Astros offense:

First 11 games (6-5): .288/.394/.494, 7.0 runs per game
Last 16 games (4-12): .242/.313/.395, 4.0 runs per game

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

Astros are 4-14 in their last 18 games, averaging 4.5 runs per game and giving up 6.6 runs per game in that span.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

The Astros have posted two shutouts this year. In the next game, they gave up 12 runs each times.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 25, 2026

Why do the Astros never have the roof open?

Why won’t the Astros open the roof at Daikin Park? The team wouldn’t make anyone available to discuss. Some players past and present prefer it open. Other teams with roofs — including one in Texas — try to open whenever possible. Story with @SamBlum3 – https://t.co/6Sxn1cit9f

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 24, 2026

Jazz Chisholm should be embarrassed.

Jazz Chisholm challenging a pitch virtually middle-middle…in a 12-4 game.

And then being shocked it wasn't a ball. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/5yr69bVvnA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 25, 2026

It’s getting ugly in Philadelphia

The Phillies lose their 10th-consecutive game, their longest streak since 1999.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) April 25, 2026

Paul Skenes is pretty good. You may have heard:

Paul Skenes with 7 shutout innings. He had a perfect game through 6 2/3 innings.
His career ERA: 2.01
He has now had an MLB-record 23 scoreless starts in his first 63 starts, per @CodifyBaseball

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) April 25, 2026

Has to be the current AL ROY Leader:

Murakami with his 11th HR tonight. He has homered in 6 of his last 7 games https://t.co/VS9jff82Ll

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) April 25, 2026

MUNETAKA MURAKAMI WON’T STOP HOMERING. 🤯

(Via: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/AWyTaVDzYC

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

It’s pretty hot on the North Side:

The Cubs have won 10 in a row.

The last time they had a longer winning streak, it was 2016.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) April 25, 2026

ALEX BREGMAN TIES THE GAME IN LA. 💥

(Via: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/hx7CQSEfD7

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

DANSBY SWANSON GIVES THE CUBS THE LEAD IN THE 9TH! 🐻

Chicago trailed 4-0 through six innings.

(Via: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/DhysEDcHNo

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

Current AL Cy Young leader:

José Soriano's remarkable start continues with five more scoreless innings. Soriano by the numbers this season, with MLB ranks:

IP: 37.2 (1st)
ERA: 0.24 (1st)
Strikeouts: 43 (2nd)
BA: .143 (2nd)
OBP: .223 (5th)
SLG: .175 (1st)
Fastball velocity: 97.2 mph (8th)

Pure dominance.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 22, 2026

The sudden outrage over the Shohei Rule:

Unpacking the ‘Shohei Ohtani Rule,’ and if it’s too much or unfair. https://t.co/tj3yZgvldW

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 24, 2026

"This is not a Dodger thing. It's not an Ohtani thing. It is a bad rule."

Craig Counsell responds to questions about his comments on the "Ohtani Rule."

(Via: @FredoCervantes) pic.twitter.com/uHHTon8CIy

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

Is it possible a trade for a star player could work out bad for both teams?

Interesting read from @extrabaggs: Rafael Devers isn’t hitting fastballs, but Buster Posey doesn’t regret the trade https://t.co/W47i1v9uga

— Jen McCaffrey (@jcmccaffrey) April 24, 2026

Walk it off:

THE REDS WALK IT OFF! 🫨

(Via: @Reds) pic.twitter.com/pVsJAQouqN

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

First career HR for the next great young SS:

KONNOR GRIFFIN HITS HIS FIRST CAREER HOME RUN! 👏

(Via: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/KqM51Uk6Tw

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 25, 2026

Well, I am a fan of Dr. Pepper:

Before MLB cracked down on sticky stuff, pitchers would concoct Dr. Pepper with pine tar in the microwave, says @RossStripling. pic.twitter.com/2dYb0oAA1y

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 24, 2026

Were the Red Sox destined to fail?

The Red Sox ask too much of their young players, says @Ken_Rosenthal.

"I'd never liked where they were going into the season offensively." pic.twitter.com/TZpUdXINtb

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 24, 2026

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The Milwaukee Brewers hope to bounce back on Saturday in the second game of their series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.

They were nearly the victim of a Paul Skenes perfect game last night, but our MLB odds have them favored to continue Pittsburgh’s 15-game streak of alternating victories with defeats.

Here are my Pirates vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for the side and total for Saturday, April 25.

Who will win Pirates vs Brewers today: Brewers (-134)

Jacob Misiorowski has shown some nasty stuff to start the season.

He ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.

Add in an extension that sits in the 99th percentile, and it’s problematic for a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors. The Pirates also chase a fair amount, but have the fifth-lowest chase contact rate.

Mitch Keller is outperforming his xERA and xFIP by nearly a full run. He’s facing a serious platoon disadvantage, and his command issues will be exploited by a Milwaukee Brewers lineup ranked second in walk rate.

Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under pick:  Under 8.5 (-133)

While I expect the Brewers to get to Keller, I am not expecting a high-run output. Milwaukee ranks fourth-worst in both ISO and xwOBA, and third-worst in xwOBAcon.

The Brewers have made up for that by drawing walks and ranking fifth in generating runs on the basepaths. Even so, I can’t see them posting a big number.

Misiorowski’s biggest issue has been home runs, but the Pirates rank just 20th in ISO.

Both bullpens rank in the top half of the league in xFIP and are rested after yesterday’s game. They’ll limit damage in the late innings to push this total Under.

Pirates vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Pirates +122 | Brewers -127
• Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-178) | Brewers +1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Pirates vs Brewers trend

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.

How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info

Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries

Pirates vs Brewers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (14-10) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board scoring a run in the 2nd inning on a Strahm RBI single and a run in the 3rd on an Alexander solo HR. Pecko got the start and was great tossing 3 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts but left after 3 due to possible cramps. In the 5th, Nelson added a solo home run to extend the lead. The offense got some more insurance with 2 runs in the 8th on an error. The pen allowed a couple of runs but held on for the 5-2 win.

Note: Nelson is hitting .326 in Triple-A.

• James Nelson, RF: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• CJ Alexander, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Collin Price, DH: 1-for-3, R, 2B
• Kellen Strahm, CF: 1-for-3, R, RBI, BB
• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-3, BB

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Tom Cosgrove, LHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

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AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (10-8) SUSPENDED

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A+: Asheville Tourists (5-14) lost 9-6 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the 3rd inning on a Daudet solo HR. They got 4 more runs in the 4th on a Call walk, Batista RBI single and Nunez 2 run single. Smith started for Asheville and went 5 innings allowing 6 runs, 5 earned. In the 7th, Holy tied the game with a solo HR. The pen allowed 3 runs over the 8th and 9th innings and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Asheville fell 9-6.

Note: Holy has a .800 OPS this season.

• Alejandro Nunez, DH: 1-for-5, 2 RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 SB
• Chase Call, RF: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Freuddy Batista, C: 1-for-4, R, RBI
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 1-for-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 1-for-3, 2B, BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
• Eurys Martich, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 0 K
• Alain Pena, RHP: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

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A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (7-12) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Ramirez RBI single and a run scoring on a balk. Pentecost got the start and pitched well tossing 5.1 scoreless innings but he left with the trainer mid at-bat. Hopefully nothing too serious. In the 6th, Monistere added an RBI single to extend the lead. After the Pelicans scored one in the 7th, the Woodpeckers responded with 2 runs in the 8th on a Neyens solo home run and Wakefield sac fly. Rosario allowed a run in the 9th inning but held on as the Woodpeckers won 5-2.

Note: Huezo is hitting .310 this season.

• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-3
• Zach Cole, CF: 0-for-3, BB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI, BB, SB
• Anthony Huezo, RF: 2-for-2, 2 R, 2B, 2 BB, 2 SB
• Nick Monistere, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI, SB
• Josh Wakefield, LF: 1-for-3, R, RBI, SB
• German Ramirez, SS: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 SB
• Nehomar Ochoa, 1B: 2-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB, SB

• Gabel Pentecost, RHP: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

---

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Josh Hendrickson – 4:35 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – TBD

AV: TBD – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

It’s actually a pretty unusual season when you don’t have a holy $#@! type of win. 10 game winning streaks? Quite a bit less common. Without doing any research, I’m betting the intersection of those two occurrences? A big comeback during a long streak? Less common. On the road? Against the two-time defending World Champs? We just keep going further into subsets. And with each layer of that, you know that this game was probably a unicorn among unicorns.

If you stayed up and saw the comeback, a hat tip to you. I’m more than a little disappointed that out here on the East Coast, I went to bed after the top of the sixth. I didn’t like the matchup of the Cubs bullpen against the Dodgers relievers with them at home and spotted a four-run lead. My loss. Though I quite enjoyed watching the highlights first thing this morning.

As I’ve said throughout this streak being extended, these longish streaks don’t necessarily make a season a playoff season. The last longish streak like this resulted in an 83-win team. Now that they’ve reached double digits? Now the Cubs are chasing the 2016 team. This team will be done no favors trying to compare to the single most beloved season in basically every living Cub fan’s lives.

I do believe, though, that both of these things can provide a boost to a team. You know there are going to be struggles. There are going to be times when some team that’s going to struggle to win 70 games is going to win a series. When some pitcher who should probably be riding buses in the minors shuts you down. I do believe that it can be a big tool to say hey, we know we can be excellent. We know we won 10 straight games, all against teams that a majority of baseball experts thought were playoff teams. When you are down three or four or five runs in a game. Maybe it’s getting late. But you say hey. We came off the mat and beat the Dodgers in their own park. We’ve been here and we’ve done this.

I’m going to run out of superlatives for what this team is doing. It’s a good problem to have. That the Cubs came back from down four on the road to win against the champs in a game in which their centerfielder had not one but two outfield assists on plays at the plate? That’s insane.

Dansby Swanson and the offense will rightly get all kinds of credit for their six-run outburst (that could so easily have been eight). The defense included one of the more spectacular plays I think I’ve seen by Nico Hoerner. But it can’t be lost that this starts with a guy who I have to admit never entered my Chicago Cubs tunnel vision. Ryan Rolison, who I was completely unfamiliar with previously, threw three scoreless innings allowing just two hits. Part of it is the structure of the game, but I’m going to bet that not too many relievers throw three scoreless innings against the Dodgers this year.

Last note. If you are someone who has ridden Craig Counsell, I’d at least suggest you take a few minutes and reconsider your impression of his abilities. That guy is managing his butt off and he’s killing it. It’s early, but I’ll be surprised when the various outlets that run odds for various things start listing him as one of the favorites for Manager of the Year. Eight Cub pitchers have hit the injured list this month alone. There is no win last night without four scoreless innings from the bullpen. Down four, you were always going to be using the “B” relievers. But after the three-run seventh, you might consider an “A” reliever. After the run in the eighth, you almost certainly go to the main group. And after the two in the ninth, you absolutely run out your best guy to close it. But none of those guys are healthy right now.

Unbelievable. Go Cubs.

Three Positives:

• This is Dansby’s game. Two hits, a triple and a homer. Four runs driven in. Two runs scored. He had a hand in all but one of the runs that scored. How many teams have their ninth hitter say hop on, I got this?
• Ryan Rolison. Only a heroic effort by Dansby kept this one from being my top spot. Unbelievable performance. The second longest outing of his major league career. His previous high for scoreless outing was 2.1 innings. Only his second major league win. While that stat may be flawed, there was no fluke about that win. Good stuff.
• Among a lot of excellent choices, I’m going with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who drew a two-out walk in the seventh to extend the inning for Dansby’s two-run triple that turned into three runs. He was also on board ahead of the game-winner.

Hat tips to Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman and Corbin Martin earning his third career save.

Game 26, April 24: Cubs 6, Dodgers 4 (17-9)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.465). 2-3, HR, 3B, HBP, 4 RBI, 2 R
• 2nd biggest WPA game of the season for the Cubs
• Hero: Ryan Rolison (.159). 3 IP, 10 BG, 2 H, K (W 1-0)
• Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.154). 2-5, HR, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jameson Taillon (-.188). 5 IP, 21 BF, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 R, 4 K
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.114). 0-4
• Kid: Carson Kelly (-.113). 0-3, BB

WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson homers with a runner on first and no outs in the ninth to break a 4-4 tie. (.345)

*Dodgers Play of the Game: Will Smith batted with runners on first and second with two outs in the third and hit a three-run homer. (.276)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 25 Winner: A particularly rare occurrence, Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki tied at 92 votes apiece. I have no data for it, but I think unanimous votes happen more than ties.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Nico Hoerner +7.5
• Michael Conforto/Shōta Imanaga +7
• Seiya Suzuki -8
• Jacob Webb -9
• Pete Crow-Armstrong -13

Current Win Pace: 105.9

Up Next: What do you do for an encore after that? This one is played at a much more reasonable hour. Game two in Los Angeles. The Cubs send Colin Rea (3-0, 3.00, 24 IP) for his third start (in addition to one bulk outing). He’s got a 20:5 strikeout to talk ratio, a 1.04 WHIP and a save for good measure. It would be hard to overstate how much he’s meant to this Cub pitching staff in his year plus here.

Roki Sasaki (0-2, 6.11, 17.2 IP) is the rare modern era Dodger signing that hasn’t worked out (yet). This is his fifth start of the year. His best outing was actually his first one of the year against Cleveland when he allowed a run on four hits and two walks over four innings. He does average nearly a strikeout per inning, but also more than a hit per inning and almost a walk per inning. His numbers simply don’t suggest a high probability of success and if the Cubs are patient, I think they’ll put some runs on the board.

Win one for? Uniform No. 11 has been worn by quite a number of people through the years. There are some great names on that list. Ron Cey was my first No. 11 that I remember. A lot of really fun Cub middle infielders have worn the number. Drew Smyly would have been wearing that number the day of his really enjoyable almost no-hitter. But given the oddity in modern baseball of the manager’s jersey being visible, I certainly did not know that Craig Counsell is currently Cub No. 11. As I think he’s as responsible as anyone for this streak, let’s go win another one for Craig.

Take life a mile at a time. I’m sure I’ve heard or read that somewhere. An ad for a car? The Fast and Furious movies? On those t-shirts they sell at gas stations? It’s something car-related. I haven’t been on a road trip in years, and when I did go on them, I really measured them by rest stops, which isn’t as conducive to pleasant-sounding aphorisms (“take life one visit to an Ohio rest stop at a time” just doesn’t have a good ring to it, even though Ohio has really nice rest stops). Anyway, most baseball players don’t get to take their lives one mile at a time. Their travels occur in big chunks, hopping from one city to the next. The impact of a single mile is hard to see when you’re making multiple journeys by air every month. Alec Bohm and Aaron Nola, though, might be an exception. But not every journey brings you to a happy destination.

Aaron Nola has had it rough for a while now. His 2025 was injury-plagued, injury-shortened, snakebit, whatever terms you prefer. It was to be hoped that an offseason to rest and recover would restore Nola to his previous form —which, yes, could be up and down, but he was highly effective when he was at his best. So far, that hope has been thwarted. Like many of the Phillies’ moundsmen, he’s been a victim of bad luck to some degree, with his xERA (4.67) a little lower than his observed (5.06), and the same for his FIP (4.03 vs. 3.44). A BABIP of .347 explains some of it. But his unspectacular start to the season cannot be blamed entirely on bad luck. In part, it can be blamed on his fastballs.

Nola’s signature has always been the knuckle curve, but he’s made his fastballs—a four seamer, a sinker, and a cutter— do good work for him in the past. But he hasn’t been able to get that same success this season. Even as his curve has returned to form, his fastballs have lagged behind: by fastball run value, he ranks in the 2nd percentile. And yes, it’s still early, and percentiles aren’t so meaningful at this point in the season. But it can be said that very few pitchers are getting less from their fastballs than Nola is right now.

In 2024, Nola’s four-seamer produced a .167 batting average and .316 slugging percentage for hitters. In 2026, it’s .333 and .667. The expected numbers look better (.265, .506), but the regression is still real. He’s allowing a 58.8% hard hit percentage against it too, which would be the highest of his career if it holds. His sinker tells a similar story. His cutter is actually producing results a tad better than in the last two seasons, but on the whole his fastballs have become a problem, fast.

Sometimes the detective work is complicated, requiring judicious, diligent application of the little grey cells. Sometimes the culprit leaves a big, bloody handprint for you. When we look at Nola’s velocity, we see it’s down by about a mile for each of his fastballs, compared to 2024 (and not to 2025, due to the impact of his injury): 91.7 vs. 92.5 for the four-seamer, 86.1 vs. 87.5 for the cutter, 90.8 vs. 91.5 for the sinker. His fastballs were never terribly fast to begin with, and losing an extra mile on them can’t be helping. The movement on his four-seamer and sinker look to be about where they were pre-injury, though the cutter is a different story- at a total of 0.1 inches of horizontal movement , it isn’t really cutting very much, even in the context that his cutters have always had less side to side movement than the average. Given that the performance struggles are centered on the four-seamer and sinker, though the issue here probably isn’t about movement.

It might be about location, though. By the Location+ model, Nola’s location on each of his three fastball types has gone from above average to below average, year over year. If we compare to 2024 instead, since 2025 represented a short, injury-influenced campaign, Nola’s location work has still declined for each of his three fastballs. If we look at Pitching+, a model that takes a more holistic look at a pitch’s characteristics, four-seamer, sinker and cutter have all gone from well above average to just about average, and that’s true whether we compare 2026 to 2025 or 2024. The safest thing to say about Nola’s fastballs is that they’re being hurt by decreased command, and decreased velocity.

And Nola isn’t the only one being hurt by a lost mile. Alec Bohm has struggled mightily to begin the 2026 campaign, slashing a grim .157/.238/.213. His plate discipline is about what it was last season, with his K% and BB% remarkably unchanged. There are some changes under the hood— he’s a lot less likely to swing on the first pitch, and to swing in the zone in general, but those aren’t showing up in the strikeout and walk rates. The more likely explanation for his rough start is what happens when he makes contact. His hard hit rate has dropped by nearly 7.5%. His average exit velocity is down by by nearly 2 MPH. He has barreled the ball just once on 72 batted balls. Why? Again, not a lot of detective work is needed here; let Columbo go take his tousled self elsewhere, let Poirot wax his mustache. Bohm’s average swing speed is down by nearly a mile, from 71.7 MPH to 70.8. Last season, his fast swing rate— the percentage of his swings over 75 MPH— was 18.2%. This season, it’s 12%. Of the Phillies regulars, only Bryson Stott and Justin Crawford are swinging slower, and the two of them take a very different approach at the plate than Bohm does. The lack of power from Bohm’s bat has been an issue in the past, but he was sometimes able to make up for it with good contact. The loss of a mile on his bat speed, however, seems to have put him in a spot where the contact skills can’t quite make up the difference.

It’s still very early, and it would not be surprising in the slightest if Nola and Bohm both improved over the course of the season. Still, the loss of velocity, in pitch or swing, is a worrying sign. The Phillies have promises to keep, and miles to go before they sleep.

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The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles clash at Camden Yards today, with the struggling Garrett Crochet on the hill for the visitors. 

That matchup headlines my favorite MLB picks for today in the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets.

Here are my best free NRFI and YRFI bets for Saturday, April 25.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

Red Sox at Orioles: YRFI (+118)

The Baltimore Orioles exploded for 10 runs in the series opener on Friday, putting up a four-spot in the bottom of the first inning. They’ve now scored a run in the first in back-to-back contests, and Garrett Crochet has been poor lately.

He’s given up 15 earned runs across his last two outings, and the lefty has allowed at least one run in the first inning in both of those starts. The O’s offense is hot right now, and Crochet is having serious trouble missing bats. Trevor Rogers hasn’t given up a single run in the first this season, so the offensive damage here will come from Baltimore against Crochet.

They will jump on him early.

• Time: 12:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN

Mariners at Cardinals: NRFI (-136)

Bryan Woo takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners today, and he’s compiled a 2.25 ERA. The righty is lights out, and he hasn’t surrendered a single run in the first inning this season. On the other side, Matthew Liberatore is coming off a start where he gave up only one earned run, and none in the first.

The St. Louis Cardinals have NRFI scored in two straight, and for Seattle, they’ve failed to score in the first inning in two of their last three. Both of these offenses are also very average so far, and we have two solid arms on the bump.

• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV

Marlins at Giants: NRFI (-160)

It’s Eury Perez vs. Robbie Ray on the mound in Game 2 of this series between the Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants. Perez has a 3-2 YRFI/NRFI record, and he’s had back-to-back scoreless first innings.

As for Ray, he’s only allowed a run in the first inning once this season in five starts, and that was earlier in the campaign. Although it’s a small sample size, Miami is hitting just .117 against Ray. The Giants’ struggling offense is a clear weakness so far as well, and they’ve failed to score a run in the first in three straight contests.

Don’t expect a lot of offense in this one – especially not early on.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area

What is a NRFI bet?

NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.

A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.

NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks-Padres Mexico City Preview
The altitude is poised to play an important role in this division-rival clash. Mexico City’s Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú sits 7,349 feet above sea level. That substantially higher than even Coors Field, which has an elevation of “only” 5289 feet.

Why Mexico City Series Might Spell Trouble for Zac Gallen
The long-time AZ starter is going to need to keep the ball down and perhaps increase the swing and miss he induces in order to keep the ball in the park in Mexico.

Diamondbacks President Speaks About Mexico City Series
Derrick Hall looks forward to the opportunities the series provides the Diamondbacks.

Other Baseball News

Cubs Resilience Overcomes Dodgers, Runs Win-Streak to 10
On the heels of the Mets finally ending a double-digit losing streak, the Cubs have extended their win streak to double-digits.

Updating the Rookie of the Year Races
Munetaka Murakami is starting to make some noise.

White Sox Have Murakami Decision to Make
Despite being tied for the league lead with 11 home runs, it still seems quite premature to be discussing an extension to keep Murakami around on an affordable salary.

Phillies Jettison Taijuan Walker
Old friend alert. Taijuan Walker has been released by the spiraling Phillies after posting a 9.13 ERA through five abysmal starts.

OH MY GOODNESS, NICO HOERNER!

This play will blow your mind 😮 pic.twitter.com/BnacwqKJaC

— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2026