Back on July 7, with the Mets toiling at 38-53 and the writing on the wall ahead of an eventual trade deadline, sell-off, I wrote that the lost 2026 season seemed more like an isolated nightmare than the start of a prolonged downturn.
That was a hard sell at the time, given the recent firing of manager Carlos Mendoza and the freshness of the failed campaign -- following an offseason where president of baseball operationsDavid Stearns engineered wholesale changes to the roster and coaching staff.
But the main thesis of my argument was that, while Stearns had seemingly miscalculated a number of things, nearly everything that could have gone wrong had gone wrong.
In April, there was a season-crushing, aberrational 12-game losing streak that coincided with Juan Soto's first calf injury of the year.
Freddy Peralta, acquired in the offseason to help lead the rotation, inexplicably posted a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts for New York before being traded to the Rays, where he has a 7.53 ERA in three starts.
Major injuries hit not only the players who had checkered injury histories (such as Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr.), but those who were almost always healthy (including Francisco Lindorand Soto). New York lost one of its most important pitchers and clubhouse leaders (Clay Holmes) to a freak injury when his leg was broken by a line drive in the middle of May, throwing the rotation into disarray.
Nearly every bounce back candidate (Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson) had flopped.
Bo Bichette, potentially due to a bit of an adjustment period on a new team in a new city while learning a new position, started off very poorly at the plate, and didn't get his legs under him until June.
Through July 7, the Mets had also been unlucky, including a 9-16 record in one-run games that was shocking given how good their bullpen was. In other words, it seemed like something that would revert to the mean -- along with their injury luck and some better performance from players who were too good to be that bad.
New York's BABIP to that point was the second-worst in baseball. And the difference between their wOBA (weighted on-base average) and xwOBA (expected weighted on base average) was also massive. The Mets' xwOBA was .322, which was 11th in MLB. Their actual wOBA was .299, which ranked 29th. That 23-point spread was tied with the Mariners and Reds for biggest gap between actual production and expected production.
To be clear, this is in no way meant to excuse the Mets' play over the first three months of the season, which was often uninspired and sloppy. But it was quite clear that all was not lost, that there was a foundation in place that could help New York turn things around quickly and -- with some offseason reinforcements -- contend again in 2027.
Since July 8, the Mets' record is 20-16. They are 17-13 since the All-Star break, and 11-4 since the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Their record in one-run games during that span is 5-4, with the Mets' outcome in tight contests normalizing.
The Mets' wOBA since July 8 is .319 (11th-best in the majors), while their xwOBA is .309 -- a spread that is more indicative of their talent than the wild 23-point spread they had prior.
Bo Bichette looks like Bo Bichette, with a .313/.357/.457 triple slash since June 18, Lindor (whose career was left for dead by some because he had a rough 10 days to start the season) has an .802 OPS since returning from the IL, Manaea has a 3.71 ERA and has regained his velocity since returning to the rotation on June 13, and Senga is excelling in a late-inning relief role.
If you go all the way back to June 25, which was the day after Lindor was activated from a two-plus month IL stint, the Mets are a .500 team. And if they win on Friday against the White Sox, their record since May 1 will be 49-49. That's nothing to write home about given their initial expectations, but certainly not a hopeless disaster that is doomed for seasons to come.
So it's fair to say things have evened out.
But the most promising thing about the 2026 Mets has been the emergence of the homegrown players who look like they'll be mainstays.
There's Carson Benge coming into his own offensively while unleashing seeds from right field to nail runners at the plate, A.J. Ewing emerging as an answer in the outfield, Nolan McLean displaying moxie and often dominating near the top of the rotation, Christian Scott missing bats at an elite rate in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and Zac Thornton impressing at the back of the rotation.
Since the trade deadline, which saw New York deal nearly one-third of its active roster (including four key bullpen members), the remade relief corps with Senga now at the back end hasn't missed a beat. Left-hander Nate Lavender's swing-and-miss stuff has translated, Daniel Duarte has emerged as a legitimate option, and jumping Jefry Yan is firing 100 mph fastballs.
Meanwhile, most of the prospects the Mets got back in their deadline deals have been on fire since joining the organization. That includes Jefferson Rojas, who could figure prominently in the second base mix next season. Another possible second base option in the near future is Mitch Voit, New York's first-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, who has been having an offensive breakout since being promoted to Binghamton.
With all of this as a backdrop, the Mets are playing a crisp, fun, exciting brand of baseball that has reignited the fanbase -- making these technically meaningless (barring a miracle) late-season games at Citi Field something to look forward to.
That's because when you squint just a bit, it's easy to see that this has been coming together for months, and that many of the players who are helping to author this change should figure prominently in 2027. While this season will not be remembered fondly, it might be a year that is eventually looked back on as the start of things coming together -- even if it took longer for the Mets to get there than they originally hoped.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves haven't performed well on the road this season, 
Alec Burleson
Julio Rodriguez