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Big slate Monday! There is so much to get into with the MLB player propsmarket.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31, including why Rafael Devers is going to light up Bryce Elder.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 earned runs | +119 | |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -107 | |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -136 |
Ryan Gusto Over 2.5 earned runs (+119)
The Washington Nationals find themselves in a great bounce-back spot against Miami Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who's been pretty solid over his last few starts, but he has some telling underlying metrics that the Nationals should be able to exploit.
Despite Gusto's 1.26 ERA over his last three starts, he owns a 4.58 xERA while allowing a hard-hit rate of nearly 44%. On top of that, in his last three road starts, Gusto is allowing a 46% hard-hit rate, 10.8% barrel rate, and 32.4% elevation rate, while allowing 2.13 HR/9.
Over the Nationals' last six games, they have a strikeout rate under 20%, a wRC+ above 100, and a walk rate north of 10%. They should be able to get out to an early lead with how well this lineup has been seeing the ball.
Take this down to +110.
Home run sprinkles: Daylen Lile & Abimelec Ortiz
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Jake Burger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-107)
Running it back with the Burger man after he cashed on an RBI single with a .105 xBA. He then followed that up with a 369-foot flyout to the warning track. Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger has been making a ton of hard contact, and is ready for a big outing at the plate tonight.
In Burger’s last 10 games, he owns a .648 xSLG and .250 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate.
This evening, he draws Athletics left-hander Gage Jump, who's dealt with some speed bumps against right-handed hitters this season. The last 60 righties he's faced are making nearly 10% barrel and 66% elevation rates, while owning a .328 xBA, .515 xSLG, and .204 ISO.
Burger, in his last 30 at-bats versus a left-handed pitcher, sports a .714 SLG, 1.047 OPS, and .428 ISO, generating a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate.
Take this down to -110, or pivot to Over 1.5 total bases at plus money. And yes, sprinkle the home run, too.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, NBCSCA
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-136)
The second-highest-rated hitter in this matchup according to Batters-Box happens to be San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. The big fella enters with over 81% arsenal coverage against Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder.
He also goes Over this prop above 55.51% of his elite ratings on Batters-Box, a 272-game sample size.
Devers has been on an absolute tear over his last 10 games, sporting a .684 SLG and .342 ISO while generating a 13% barrel rate. Across his last 10 batted balls, he's hit four above 104 mph. His last three batted balls have all been base hits, while having an exit velocity north of 106 mph.
The last 60 lefties Elder has taken on own a .354 xBA, .522 xSLG, and .333 xwOBA. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Devers owns an .880 SLG and 1.447 OPS, while maintaining a 65% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate.
The Giants slugger should be able to connect with something tonight, and hopefully it leaves the park. Take this down to -140, or take his bases.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSBA, BravesVsn
- Prop picks: 447-886, -13.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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