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Big slate Monday! There is so much to get into with the MLB player propsmarket.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31, including why Rafael Devers is going to light up Bryce Elder.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Ryan Gusto	Over 2.5 earned runs	+119
Jake Burger	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-107
Rafael Devers	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-136

Ryan Gusto Over 2.5 earned runs (+119)

The Washington Nationals find themselves in a great bounce-back spot against Miami Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who's been pretty solid over his last few starts, but he has some telling underlying metrics that the Nationals should be able to exploit.

Despite Gusto's 1.26 ERA over his last three starts, he owns a 4.58 xERA while allowing a hard-hit rate of nearly 44%. On top of that, in his last three road starts, Gusto is allowing a 46% hard-hit rate, 10.8% barrel rate, and 32.4% elevation rate, while allowing 2.13 HR/9.

Over the Nationals' last six games, they have a strikeout rate under 20%, a wRC+ above 100, and a walk rate north of 10%. They should be able to get out to an early lead with how well this lineup has been seeing the ball.

Take this down to +110.

Home run sprinkles: Daylen Lile & Abimelec Ortiz

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FS1

Jake Burger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-107)

Running it back with the Burger man after he cashed on an RBI single with a .105 xBA. He then followed that up with a 369-foot flyout to the warning track. Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger has been making a ton of hard contact, and is ready for a big outing at the plate tonight.

In Burger’s last 10 games, he owns a .648 xSLG and .250 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate.

This evening, he draws Athletics left-hander Gage Jump, who's dealt with some speed bumps against right-handed hitters this season. The last 60 righties he's faced are making nearly 10% barrel and 66% elevation rates, while owning a .328 xBA, .515 xSLG, and .204 ISO.

Burger, in his last 30 at-bats versus a left-handed pitcher, sports a .714 SLG, 1.047 OPS, and .428 ISO, generating a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate.

Take this down to -110, or pivot to Over 1.5 total bases at plus money. And yes, sprinkle the home run, too.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, NBCSCA

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-136)

The second-highest-rated hitter in this matchup according to Batters-Box happens to be San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. The big fella enters with over 81% arsenal coverage against Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder.

He also goes Over this prop above 55.51% of his elite ratings on Batters-Box, a 272-game sample size.

Devers has been on an absolute tear over his last 10 games, sporting a .684 SLG and .342 ISO while generating a 13% barrel rate. Across his last 10 batted balls, he's hit four above 104 mph. His last three batted balls have all been base hits, while having an exit velocity north of 106 mph.

The last 60 lefties Elder has taken on own a .354 xBA, .522 xSLG, and .333 xwOBA. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Devers owns an .880 SLG and 1.447 OPS, while maintaining a 65% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate.

The Giants slugger should be able to connect with something tonight, and hopefully it leaves the park. Take this down to -140, or take his bases.

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSBA, BravesVsn

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The Dodgers took their lumps on the road, dropping four of six games in Atlanta and Detroit. Most importantly they dropped all three games to the Braves, squandering the lead the Dodgers previously held over Atlanta for the race to one of the top two seeds in the National League postseason.

Offense was the key culprit in the poor week, with 11 runs scored in the first five games. All five of those games were decided by one run, eliminating any margin of error the Dodgers might have had, with three of the losses coming in the opponent’s last at-bat.

Player of the week

Teoscar Hernández had a productive week and his Sunday home run — his first in 27 days — was one of only two long balls during the week. Honorable mention to Tommy Edman, who hit the other home run and led the team with three RBI.

Pitcher of the week

Tyler Glasnow was fantastic coming off the injured list, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his two starts, with 13 strikeouts against only one walk.

The saving grace of a down week was the Dodgers postseason rotation — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, Glasnow — combining for a 2.15 ERA with 38 strikeouts, five walks, and a 33.9-percent strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings in their five starts.

Week 23 results

2-4 record
17 runs scored (2.83 per game)
15 runs allowed (2.50 per game)
.557 pythagorean win percentage

Year to date

82-55 record
670 runs scored (4.89 per game)
517 runs allowed (3.77 per game)
.616 pythagorean win percentage (84-53)

Miscellany

Rare thefts: Ha-Seong Kim and Michael Harris II each stole second base on Thursday night in Atlanta, with the Harris steal originally called out at second base but overturned upon replay review. Both were off Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and marked the first time in 82 career MLB games — including 81 starts and one legend-cementing relief appearance — that he allowed multiple stolen bases. Even with the two Braves swipes on Thursday, opposing runners this season are have only four stolen bases in 24 starts, and have been caught four times. In his career in those 82 games, Yamamoto has allowed 15 steals in 25 attempts.

Opportunities, cost: The Dodgers had to scratch and claw to score two runs and win on Friday in Detroit, but not for lack of chances. They had nine hits, nine walks, and a hit batter, reaching base 19 times in nine innings, and had multiple people on base in eight of nine frames. It marked the first time the Dodgers reached base least 19 times and didn’t score more than two runs in 14 years, since August 26, 2012 against the Miami Marlins. It was the first time the Dodgers won such a game since August 23, 1989 in Montreal, a classic 22-inning affair in which Rick Dempsey homered for the game’s only run and Expos mascot Youppi was ejected at the urging of Tommy Lasorda. Friday marked the first win in nine innings in such a game since a 2-0 triumph by Brooklyn over the Pittsburgh Pirates at Forbes Field on June 5, 1952.

One oh four: Fireballer Edgardo Henriquez has pitched his way into potential October important innings, including with 11 scoreless appearances out of his last 12 outings. In the eighth inning on Saturday, Henriquez struck out Dillon Dingler looking on a two-seam fastball on the corner.

The 103.6-mph pitch matched the fastest pitch of Henriquez’s career, also done in the sixth inning of June 2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Those are the fastest two pitches of any Dodgers pitcher since 2008, the first year Statcast tracking pitch data.

Transactions

Monday: Reliever Paul Gervase was optioned to Oklahoma City, needing to clear a spot.

Tuesday: That spot was filled when Tyler Glasnow was activated off the 60-day injured list after missing three and a half months with back spasms.

Thursday: After leaving his Wednesday start with a middle-finger blister, Roki Sasaki was placed on the IL and Seth Halvorsen found his way back into the Dodgers bullpen.

Game results

• Tuesday: Braves 4, Dodgers 3
• Wednesday: Braves 6, Dodgers 5
• Thursday: Braves 1, Dodgers 0
• Friday: Dodgers 2, Tigers 1
• Saturday: Tigers 2, Dodgers 1
• Sunday: Dodgers 6, Tigers 1

Previous reviews: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | no reviews for Weeks 14-15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 22

Up next

The Dodgers are back for a nine-game homestand to start the regular season’s final month. This week they run the Matt Adams gauntlet, hosting the Cardinals and Nationals after a Monday off day. The day before Labor Day brings us the rare 7:10 p.m. Sunday start time.

Will Smith and Blake Treinen are likely going to be activated off the 60-day injured list this week, with corresponding moves needed for both to make room on the 40-man roster. On Tuesday, active roster limits expand to 28 players, including 14 pitchers.

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The Boston Red Sox sit as heavy 61% moneyline favorites tonight when they welcome the Seattle Mariners to Fenway Park for a 6:45 first pitch. 

Payton Tolle continues to deal, and my Mariners vs Red Sox predictions expect him to keep it rolling against an inconsistent Seattle lineup. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

Who will win Mariners vs Red Sox today: Red Sox (61%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Boston Red Sox have the more reliable pitching profile tonight with Payton Tolle in strong form. The left-hander owns a 2.99 FIP across his last two starts, and this matchup plays in his favor against a Seattle Mariners lineup that has struggled against southpaws — posting an 87 wRC+ this season.

George Kirby’s underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than his recent results, but the right-hander has still allowed 12 earned runs over his previous three outings. That creates an opening for a Boston lineup that owns a 102 wRC+ at Fenway Park.

With Tolle trending up, the Red Sox have the cleaner edge.

Play this pick up to 62%.

COVERS INTEL: Seattle's 68 wRC+ over the last week is a whole 31 points below their season average of 99. This is a clear opportunity for Tolle to deal. 

Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (52%)

While neither lineup is absolutely flourishing right now, Kirby’s vulnerability and the bullpen profiles have me liking the Over with a low 7.5 total.

Boston’s relief corps owns a 4.71 FIP over the last week while allowing 1.30 HR/9. Seattle’s pen has not been much sharper, posting a 4.60 xERA during that same span.

This feels like the type of game where the Red Sox could do most of the scoring, but the Mariners would not need to chip in much to help push this Over.

Play this pick up to 60%.

Mariners vs Red Sox home run prediction: Julio Rodriguez (16%)

Julio Rodriguez may have just one home run over his last five games, but the underlying metrics are loud. The superstar owns a 20% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate during that span while putting 46.7% of his contact in the air.

Tolle has allowed a 48.3% fly-ball rate at home this season, and the Red Sox bullpen has also given up some home run damage lately.

With Rodriguez’s recent batted-ball profile and Fenway’s friendly left-field dimensions, there’s a real case for the slugger to leave the yard.

Play this pick up to 20%. 

Mariners vs Red Sox weather

Weather at Fenway Park looks clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 75°F to 70°F. Winds are light around 7–8 mph, and rain chances stay very low at 0–4%. No real delay concern, and conditions look mostly neutral for scoring.

Mariners vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Mariners 40% | Red Sox 61%
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (59%) | Red Sox -1.5 (42%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52%) | Under 7.5 (50%)

Mariners vs Red Sox trend

The Boston Red Sox have hit the moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Mariners vs Red Sox and game info

Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Worcester: W, 13-10 (BOX SCORE)

It took eight pitchers and a six-run third inning, but the WooSox staved off the Rail Riders’ (Yankees AAA) late comeback attempt after Wilkes-Barre smacked five homers off the WooSox pitching staff. The offense was super up for the challenge, though, and Kristian Campbell was at the forefront of that challenge, as he had two home runs in his first three times up to the plate and also added a single for a 4-RBI day. He was — obviously, in a 13-run effort for Worcester — far from the only person who was seeing the ball well. Romy Gonzalez also had a three-hit day, a walk, and a swiped bag along with a homer of his own, scoring four times, and IKF and Bret Harris each had multiple RBI’s. This game was tied at 10 going into the 8th, when Romy called game and the team never looked back.

Portland: L, 8-7 (F/10) (BOX SCORE)

The Sea Dogs were walked off in the tenth in the series finale Sunday afternoon but, truth be told, it was impressive that the Sea Dogs even grinded for an extra-inning game after Alex Bouchard gave up five runs to Richmond (Giants AA) via two early home runs. The Sea Dogs also had to use a multitude of pitchers and even ran out of pitchers, as catcher/first-baseman Hudson White came in and got taken for the game-winning run after walking two. Justin Gonzales went 0-for-6 with two strikeouts, but you’re entitled to a game of that caliber after raking so much for a period of time, and Johanfran Garcia picked up the slack anyway; he went 3-for-5 with his 17th home run of the season.

Greenville: W, 12-11 (BOX SCORE)

Offense was not at a premium on the farm as Greenville came back to walk the Emperors (Braves High-A) off with a four-run eighth and a four-run ninth inning, even after Trennor O’Donnell allowed three runs between the seventh and the ninth. Speaking of catchers making some news Sunday, Luke Heyman, who DH’d, had a five-RBI day thanks to his 2-out grand slam in the fifth to tie the game at 4. The game only got so much more interesting from there, as Rome’s winning percentage expected sat at 98% in the top of the seventh, and after some good at-bats from Luke Schaffner and Owen Hull (as usual) who else but Luke Heyman had the game-winning knock.

Salem, Game 1: L, 6-4 (BOX SCORE)

The whole organization is seemingly feeling the burn of the Red Sox playing musical chairs with the pitching depth, even as Salem used game one (originally slated for Wednesday) as essentially, a bullpen game in Fayetteville (Astros A). The RidgeYaks honestly didn’t hit enough to think of winning this, but each team only collected five hits, each stranded six, and each team had two knocks with runners on; it was just a matter of when the hits fell, and Salem giving up the afternoon’s only home run had some bearing, as well.

Salem, Game 2: L, 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Game two was a bit more winnable as Fayetteville only managed two runs, but the runs came early, like, “one in each of the first two innings” early, and Anderson Fermin (who’s 20th birthday is this upcoming week) had Salem’s only run of the game when Martin Shelar would drive him in with one out in the final inning. The team as a whole had a track meet on the basepaths, swiping seven total, including Andrews Opata doing what he does best by grabbing four, putting his season total at 53. Unfortunately, none of those runners would cross the plate, and the comeback fell just short.

Claudell Washington had a darn fine major league career, sticking around for 17 seasons, making a couple of All-Star appearances. More notably, he was part of the World Series champion Oakland Athletics in his rookie season, the third title in a row for the mighty A’s. I can only imagine what that does to the psyche. Unfortunately for Washington, that was his only championship ring.

His time as a Yankee accounts for a fraction of his overall career, playing all or part of four seasons in pinstripes. But in a historical quirk, Washington is a surprisingly significant part of Yankee lore.

Name: Claudell Washington
Born: August 31, 1954 (Los Angeles CA)
Died: June 10, 2020 (Orinda, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1986-1988, 1990

Washington’s career got off to quite the start. As mentioned, the rookie outfielder won a World Series with Oakland in 1974, having just turned 20 years old that August. For his part, though not an everyday starter in the postseason, Washington rose to the moment. He went 7-for-18 in his first taste of playoff baseball.

The next season was the finest of his career by almost any metric. He earned his first All-Star Game nod and the As made another trip to the playoffs, though they fell three games to one to Boston. That was the last time Washington played October baseball for a while.

After one more season in Oakland, Washington bounced around, playing for Texas, the White Sox, the Mets, and the Braves between 1977 and 1985. Unfortunately for him, he’s perhaps best known during that time for a 1985 arrest for possession of marijuana and cocaine. He did permanently etch his name in baseball lore in 1980, however. Washington notched a three-homer game in 1979 for the White Sox. The next season, he repeated the feat, this time for the Mets. By doing so, he became the third man to accomplish that feat in both leagues, joining Babe Ruth and Johnny Mize.

In June 1986, Atlanta dealt him to the Yankees in a trade that saw Ken Griffey, Sr. head to the Braves. Washington re-signed in the Bronx that offseason and was a productive member of the lineup for the next couple years, batting .296/.340/.433 with 39 doubles, 20 homers, 25 stolen bases, and a 111 OPS+ across 228 games.

At the old Metrodome in Minnesota on April 20, 1988, Washington hit the 10,000^th home run in franchise history, making the Yanks the first club to reach that milestone — no small feat considering how much older plenty of the National League teams are in comparison.

That wasn’t his only highlight of the 1988 campaign, either. On September 11th, Washington stepped up to bat against former MVP Willie Hernandez. The Tigers and Yankees endured a marathon in the Bronx, with both sides going scoreless for 10 consecutive innings from the eighth through the 17th. Detroit had finally broken through in the top of the 18th on an RBI single from future Diamondbacks skipper Torey Lovullo.

But Hernandez was tired in his third inning of work and walked Rickey Henderson to lead off the home half. That made Rickey the tying run at first base, always a dangerous proposition. Washington was next up though, and he just ended it right then and there. In terms of innings, it was the latest walk-off homer in Yankees history.

Washington left New York for the Angels after the 1988 season. If Washington was to be believed, the sticking point was $200,000. He told the New York Times:

”I was playing with five or six potential Hall of Famers. That’s rare. All I wanted was a $200,000 buyout for an option year and they wouldn’t agree to it. That’s what it was: $200,000.”

In the end, he returned to New York, albeit more than a year later. In April 1990, the Angels dealt Washington back to the Yanks, who released him that October after 33 unproductive games for the last-place club. It marked the end of his career.

Washington died in June 2020. He had suffered from prostate cancer since 2017.

Claudell Washington’s tenure in New York was brief. But he tallied a couple of the more historic homers in franchise history, too. He was also, according to New York Times reporter Murray Chass, one of the aforementioned Rickey Henderson’s favorite teammates with the Yankees. Happy heavenly birthday, Claudell Washington!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (68-63) won 11-6 (BOX SCORE)

Mayer started for Sugar Land and allowed 4 runs, all in the first inning, but settled down and struck out 10 over 5 innings. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Dezenzo solo home run and Spence 2 run home run. The game stayed 4-3 until the 8th inning when Sugar Land tied it on an error. In the 9th, the offense rallied for 7 runs on a Brooks RBI single, Ferreras 2 run single, Meyers 2 run double and Cole 2 run double. McPherson went 3.2 innings allowing 2 runs and VanWey came on for the final out as Sugar Land won 11-6.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .320 in Triple-A.

• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 2-for-5, R, RBI, SB
• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 2-for-5, R, 2 RBI, SB
• Joey Loperfido, DH: 1-for-4, R, 2B, BB
• Cavan Biggio, 2B: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Jake Meyers, CF: 1-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Zach Dezenzo, 3B: 3-for-5, 2 R, HR, RBI
• Zach Cole, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, SB
• Lucas Spence, LF: 1-for-3, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB

• Bryce Mayer, RHP: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (WIN)
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (58-68) lost 7-5 (BOX SCORE)

Hicks started for the Hooks but struggled allowing 5 runs over 3.2 innings. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring 3 runs on a Schiavone single. The Hooks got 2 more runs in the 5th inning on a Whitaker 2 run home run. Mancini and Langford allowed a run in relief and the offense was unable to score again as the Hooks fell 7-5.

Note: Schiavone had 11 RBI over 6 games this week.

• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 1-for-5, 2 RBI
• Walker Janek, DH: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• Brandon Forrester, 2B: 1-for-4, R
• Chase Call, RF: 2-for-4, R

• James Hicks, RHP: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (42-82)

Game One – won 6-0 (BOX SCORE)

Neyens got Asheville on the board in the first inning with a solo home run. Asheville put 5 runs on the board in the 3rd inning on a Newman RBI single, Huezo 2 run double and Monistere 2 run double. Smith got the start and tossed 5.2 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts. Martin closed it out with a scoreless 1.1 innings as Asheville won 6-0.

Note: Neyens has 20 home runs this season.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB
• Anthony Huezo, LF: 1-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• Jack Moss, 1B: 0-for-3, R, BB, SB
• John Garcia, C: 2-for-3
• Nick Monistere, DH: 1-for-3, 2B, 2 RBI
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 1-for-3, R, SB
• DJ Newman, RF: 1-for-3, R, RBI, BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Game Two – lost 7-2 (BOX SCORE)

Howard started game two for Asheville and was solid allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 6 batters. Asheville got on the board in the 6th inning scoring a run on a wild pitch. Cruz struggled in relief allowing 5 runs while retiring two batters as the Keys extended their lead. Huezo connected on a solo home run in the 7th but that was it as Asheville fell 7-2.

Note: Huezo has a .865 OPS in High-A.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 2B, HR, RBI
• Jack Moss, 1B: 0-for-1, 2 BB
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 1-for-3, 2B

• Dylan Howard, RHP: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-53)

Game One – won 6-4 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Ramirez RBI double and Hughes walk. Weber got the start and went 5 innings allowing 4 runs, all in the 4th inning. In the bottom of the 4th, Hughes connected on a go-ahead grand slam to give the Woodpeckers the lead. Rosario tossed 2 scoreless innings as he closed out the 6-4 win.

Note: Hughes is hitting .343 this season.

• Logan Hughes, RF: 1-for-3, R, HR, 5 RBI, BB
• Aaron Piasecki, LF: 1-for-2, R, 2B, BB
• Arturo Flores, 1B: 1-for-3, R
• German Ramirez, SS: 1-for-3, R, 2B, RBI, BB

• Charlie Weber, RHP: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

Game Two – won 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on an Alvarez sac fly. They got another run in the 2nd inning on a Sierra RBI single. Pichardo got the start and was solid tossing 4 scoreless innings. Butler allowed a run in the 7th but was able to hold on for the save as the Woodpeckers won 2-1, stretching their winning streak to 13 games!

Note: Piasecki is hitting .370 this season.

• Kam Durnin, SS: 1-for-3, R, 3 SB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 1-for-2, RBI
• Aaron Piasecki, DH: 2-for-3, R, 2B
• Juan Sierra, RF: 1-for-3, RBI, SB
• German Ramirez, 2B: 1-for-3, SB

• Jank Pichardo, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Mick Uebelhor, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (WIN)
• Brady Thomas, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
• Taz Butler, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

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It’s a National League Central showdown at Wrigley Field on Monday, Aug. 31, with the Chicago Cubs trailing the visiting Milwaukee Brewers by eight games.

Time is running out for the Cubbies to catch up, and they’re a short 51% home favorite tonight.

My top Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for the North Siders to take the opener of this four-game set, with first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET.

Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (51.1%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Chicago Cubs lead the majors in wOBA and ISO while ranking third in xwOBA and averaging 6.0 runs per game across the past 30 days, and starter Clay Holmes has settled into a groove on the hill with just a single run against through 19 innings over his past three starts. 

Obviously, while the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers also pack punch at the dish, they trail well below the Cubbies with ranks of ninth in wOBA, 26th in ISO and 11th in xwOBA while averaging 4.7 runs per game during the same stretch.

The Chicago lineup also mashes lefties, and Milwaukee southpaw Kyle Harrison has spun a 4.84 xERA and 4.18 xFIP across his past three starts since returning from a forearm injury in early August.

Harrison was also removed from his Aug. 5 start because of bilateral calf cramps, and I’m anticipating the struggles to continue as Harrison inches closer to a new career high in innings pitched.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs pace the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison’s xERA skyrockets to 4.51 on the road compared to his tidy 2.28 mark at American Family Field.

Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (51.7%)

Even with Harrison’s highlighted shortcomings, his overall 3.08 xFIP and 3.23 xERA are high-end marks, and I still expect him to have a solid outing while holding the Cubs largely in check.

Additionally, Holmes has the highest ground-ball rate among pitchers with at least 75 innings while also ranking seventh in poor-contact percentage. As a result, I’m not anticipating Milwaukee putting big numbers on the board, either.

Plus, the Brewers have played to the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI).

Brewers vs Cubs home run prediction: Seiya Suzuki (21.1%)

Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki boasts an elite .239 ISO against lefties, and Harrison has allowed a healthy .518 slugging percentage and .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the highway.

Suzuki has already taken Harrison deep this season, too.

Brewers vs Cubs weather

Warm temperatures (81°F) along with a southwest wind blowing out at 10–12 mph will provide favorable hitting conditions tonight at Wrigley Field. 

Brewers vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Brewers 51.2% | Cubs 53.5%
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (40%) | Cubs +1.5 (61.5%)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51.2%) | Under 9.5 (53.5%)

Brewers vs Cubs trend

The Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 20 of their last 35 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.

How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info

Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The week that started out not so hot ended up being a solid week for the Phillies, the team going 4-2 against the Mariners and Angels. Now they head on to Arizona for a big wild card showdown.

Three up

Bryce Harper – I think one day, we’ll appreciate a little more the dedication Harper has shown to getting on base this season. We know all about the wanting to walk more when he talked about preseason goals, but a lot of times, that’s just talk. Seeing him put that into practice has been impressive. This past week, he continued his on base streak, getting it to 32 games, the longest of his career. Kind of funny how his getting on base has coincided with the team winning.

Edmundo Sosa – Listen, the man only got four plate appearances this week. Sometimes, with a player that is primarily a bench player, that is going to happen. But Edmundo Sosa made those plate appearances count, including his gigantic home run on Friday night to get the team a win.

I’ll miss Edmundo when he’s gone.

The southpaws – Man, how nice is it that the team has two starters like Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo atop the rotation? Yes, there was some concern about Zack Wheeler and how he had fallen off in his recent run of starts, Sunday not included. But the two southpaws leading the way is a nice thing to have, particularly once the playoffs are concerned.

Three down

Brandon Marsh – It kinds of stinks that Marsh has fallen off so much since the All-Star break. One could kind of see it coming, that eventually the hitting against left handed pitching was only going to last so long. But he has really lost his way as the season has progressed. It would be nice to have that one more consistent bat in the lineup that he was providing at the beginning of the season.

Zack Wheeler – What else is there to say?

The inner workings of the team – How many times have players been unavailable like Jhoan Duran wasn’t available the other day in a save situation due to a “stomach ailment”? As a parent of children who are a little older now, I can remember those days where the st___ach b_g went around like wild fire (you never name what it is), so maybe that’s being passed around? Seriously, maybe deep clean Citizens Bank Park before they arrive home.

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The San Diego Padres are priced as 59% moneyline favorites tonight against the Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.

With Singer struggling and Michael King finding his best lately, my Padres vs Reds predictions confidently back San Diego. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

Who will win Padres vs Reds today: Padres (59%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael King gives the San Diego Padres the more trustworthy starting point tonight. The right-hander has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while allowing just 0.66 HR/9 and holding opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate.

That profile gives him a clear edge over Cincinnati Reds righty Brady Singer, who owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span while allowing 1.54 HR/9 and an alarming 53.8% hard-hit rate.

San Diego has not been in great offensive form, but this matchup still creates value. King’s steadier profile and Singer’s recent contact issues make the Padres the cleaner side.

Play this pick up to 62%.

COVERS INTEL: Singer has also had issues at home this season, posting a 5.57 FIP. On the road, that number sits at 4.76. 

Padres vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (55%)

With the total sitting at 9.5, the Under presents value tonight.

Despite Singer’s recent vulnerability, San Diego isn't in the kind of offensive form where I expect a full-on explosion. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been poor, but the Padres would likely need to do most of the damage to push this Over.

The Reds have been respectable offensively lately, posting a 115 wRC+ over the last week, but they still draw a tough matchup against King. San Diego’s relief corps is also dealing, with a 3.17 xERA over the last week and minimal home run damage.

This number feels a bit high.

Play this pick up to 60%.

Padres vs Reds home run prediction: Sal Stewart (18%)

Sal Stewart cannot be stopped right now. He's clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .500 ISO during that span. 

Obviously, the matchup here doesn't have a ton of value, but Stewart has a 60% fly-ball rate over the last week, and King has allowed 40% of his contact through the air over his previous two starts. 

The Padres' pen has also given up 1.17 HR/9 in its last 23 frames. Stewart's 25% barrel rate recently strengthens this play. One mistake could leave the yard.

Play up to 20%.

Padres vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks warm and clear tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 92°F to 84°F. Rain chances sit at just 2%, and winds ease from about 7 mph to 3 mph. No delay concern, and the heat could slightly help carry.

Padres vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Padres 59% | Reds 42%
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (46%) | Reds +1.5 (55%)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (46%) | Under 9.5 (55%)

Padres vs Reds trend

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 45 home games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Reds.

How to watch Padres vs Reds and game info

Padres vs Reds latest injuries

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Center field is one of those defensive positions where the Kansas City Royals have been blessed to have a long history of excellent players.

Between 1970 and 1990, Amos Otis and Willie Wilson played a combined 24,632.2 innings in center—nearly 90% of all center field innings across that two-decade span. From 1995 to 2004, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon combined to play 9,823 innings in center field—nearly 70% of all center field innings in that span. And from 2011 through 2017, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson combined to play 7,728 innings—or just above 75% of all available center field innings. In fact, those six players have played 52% of all regular season center field innings in the entire history of the franchise.

And right below some of those titans has been Kyle Isbel, whose 3,672.1 innings in center field ranks seventh-most in Royals history. In his six years with the team, Isbel has been a reliably great defender and has never posted a Wins Above Replacement figure below 0.5, per Fangraphs’ version of the stat.

But though Isbel has been a solid role player, he’s not a permanent option. Setting aside potential collective bargaining agreement shenanigans, Isbel is set to become a free agent.

It’s true that Isbel’s likely $4 million or so salary next year, his final year of arbitration, won’t break the bank. However, at that price, you have to start looking at Isbel’s production with a little more scrutiny. Isbel’s defense is his calling card, but he doesn’t have a lot of other tools. As a baserunner, he’s only good for eight or so stolen bases a year. As a hitter, he doesn’t hit for average, walk much, or crush extra base hits. And he’s also never been a reliably healthy player, either; he’s averaged 109 games per year over the past five seasons, and he’s never played more than 136.

Now, some of that lack of playing time is due to his pretty extreme splits. Against right-handed pitching in his career, he’s hit .243/.290/.383—not great, but serviceable with his defense. Against left-handed pitching, though, he’s hit a rather abysmal .213/.274/.280—a line that you can’t really have in the lineup at all. And so, even when he is healthy, Isbel rides the pine when a lefty starter is on the bump.

All of this means that Isbel is not a smart free agent re-sign option for Kansas City. Somebody will sign him to be what he really is: a platoon- and defense-first fourth outfielder, a very useful bench option. But for Kansas City to re-up on him as the starting center fielder? That’s a risk.

The real question, then, is who Isbel’s successor, or successors, might be. I’ve discussed Tyler Tolbert before, who might be a late bloomer and could be a platoon option in center field. But frankly, the Royals’ best option to fill in for Isbel is probably Carson Roccaforte. Roccaforte won the organization’s Frank White Defensive Player of the Year award last year for his work in center field, his second consecutive season winning the award.

There’s also the fact that Roccaforte has grown into some rather impressive power. After hitting 18 home runs last year, he’s hit 32 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year.

But Roccaforte does come with some downside—namely, that he strikes out 30% of the time, a figure that could rise in the big leagues.

The other option in Triple-A is the forgotten one: Gavin Cross, the onetime top-10 draft pick who has hit .314/.360/.579 since mid-May in Omaha. Could Cross run in the Royals extensive centerfield grass as a guy who has played mostly corner outfield as a pro? Maybe—but then again, the Royals still have Isbel next year, and in 2030 they’d have their new and ostensibly smaller stadium.

What’s particularly interesting here is that the looming CBA lockout and the Royals’ recent winning streak have thrown a wrench into what could be a very interesting trial period for one of Roccaforte or Cross in September. Of course, the Royals also have another option: getting an outfielder in free agency. But it seems more likely that what money exists should be spent on pitching and maybe a corner outfield bat. And who knows; maybe Isbel will get one last hurrah next year as the starting center fielder. David DeJesus ranks sixth with 4,276.2 career center field innings for the Royals. That number is in range for Isbel to surpass.

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It's the unofficial last week of summer, which might be depressing, but cashing some dingers and MLB player props is the medicine I need on a rainy Monday.

Carson Benge might be lefty-vs-lefty, but the reverse splits are showing a lot of value. Staying with the lefty-vs-lefty theme, Pete Crow-Armstrong's price is a green light today at a windy Wrigley Field.

These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Aug. 31. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carson Benge	11%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	25%

Home run prediction: Carson Benge (11%)

Lefty Ian Seymour is a sneaky home run target today, and I'm looking at a lefty-on-lefty matchup that is much better on paper than most would assume.

Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher, as lefties hit him for a better average and more power. Left-handed hitters go yard once every 15.8 batters against him, compared to once every 32 right-handed batters.

That's a great home run rate for left-handed hitters, who are almost always priced longer when facing southpaws. Finding reverse splits on either a pitcher or hitter can create value, and in this case, we have both.

Carson Benge is the home run target at a price more than 200 points higher than his average number. He's a left-handed bat who hits dingers against right-handers once every 36.4 batters, but that rate jumps to once every 28 batters against lefties this year.

His slugging splits are fairly even, and he might be the second-best hitter in the lineup over the last two weeks, with two homers.

It's a lefty-lefty matchup with a lot of value at this price once you look under the hood, even if the surface-level matchup is priced heavily in favor of the pitcher.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY

Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (25%)

It's another day of backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go yard, and things are aligning for Monday.

Kyle Harrison's sub-3.00 ERA makes this look like a tough matchup on paper, but he gives up homers and has had multiple three-homer games.

The lefty-on-lefty matchup is another spot where the batter has no issues with the splits. PCA has better power numbers against left-handed pitching, while Harrison actually allows a worse average to left-handed hitters.

Crow-Armstrong has moved from 67% to 94% in the NL MVP odds because he's still raking, with a league-leading 10 homers over the last two weeks. Play to 29%.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Brewers.TV

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1926
In a twin bill at Detroit, White Sox infielder Ray Morehart tied a major-league record in cranking out nine hits in 10 at-bats! Morehart went 5-for-6 in the opener, and then capped it off with a 4-for-4 performance in the nightcap. Two of his nine hits were doubles.

Morehead’s five hits fueled a 19-2 win in the opener, which remains tied for the 12th-most runs in a game in franchise history and the 17-run win remains tied for third-biggest ever. The White Sox lost the nightcap, 7-6.

1935
In the highlight of his career, White Sox rookie pitcher Vern Kennedy threw a 5-0 no-hitter against Cleveland, at Comiskey Park. The no-hitter was saved in the ninth inning when with one out, outfielder Al Simmons made a diving catch on a ball. 

Kennedy didn’t even realize he had a no-hitter going until the final out!

Kennedy also had the game-breaking hit in the contest, a bases-loaded triple, driving in three runs in the sixth inning. It was also the first no-hitter in the American League since 1931.

Kennedy’s four walks against just five strikeouts gave him a relatively low game score of 88, which ranks in a tie for 121st in all White Sox starts in history.

1964
White Sox catcher Jerry McNertney was part of the cover shot for Sports Illustrated, in one of the few black-and-white covers ever done by the magazine.

1970
With the White Sox approaching the end of their worst season in franchise history, GM Ed Short was fired after nine years on the job. Short made brilliant offseason deals in 1963 and 1964 to net the club players like Hoyt Wilhelm, Pete Ward, Tommy John and Tommie Agee, but starting in 1968 his moves backfired and lost the club players like Agee, Tommy McCraw, Don Buford and Bob Locker without getting anything substantial in return.

Shorthad started his White Sox career in 1950, when he was hired to serve as publicity director and then later as traveling secretary. In an almost equally-strange move as promoting your PR man/traveling secretary as GM, the White Sox named as Short’s replacement Stu Holcomb, at the time the GM of the Chicago Mustangs NASL soccer club and previously a basketball and football coach.

In just two days, the housecleaning continued as Holcomb told manager Don Gutteridge he would not be brought back for 1971, with Gutteridge resigning as a result. Scouts and other front-office personnel also would be gone, in a massive house cleaning. 

1993
Outfielder Tim Raines became only the second White Sox player to homer from both sides of the plate in the same game. He did it at Yankee Stadium, as he victimized Sterling Hitchcock and Rich Monteleone to help the Sox coast to an 11-3 win. Raines went 3-for-5, with two runs and four RBIs. His home runs came in the fifth and ninth innings. Raines also stole his 744th career base, placing him fourth on the all-time list.

Also in this game, Frank Thomas had a homer that counted as two milestones. It was his 37th of the season, tying Dick Allen and Carlton Fisk for most in team history, as well as Big Frank’s 100th career round-tripper.

2010
Edwin Jackson stopped just one out short of a complete-game, 4-3 win at Cleveland. And in striking out 11, he became just the third White Sox pitcher to punch out double-figure batters in three consecutive games (Ed Walsh, 1910, and Floyd Bannister, 1985).

The win also completed a miraculous career start in Chicago for Jackson, who after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 30 went 3-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 45 strikeouts against eight walks in five starts.

2023
After the firing of both Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, White Sox fans were hoping that owner Jerry Reinsdorf would go out and bring in a top-notch executive from a consistently-winning organization to rebuild the franchise, which sank to new lows both on and off the field.

Instead, Reinsdorf decided to promote former Sox infielder Chris Getz to GM.

Getz had been in charge of the White Sox minor league operation for the past seven years, an operation that usually ranked near the bottom in MLB rankings and failed to develop anyone outside of a few high draft picks to produce for the big league club.

White Sox fans, and even many in the mainstream media, were highly critical of the decision — but not completely shocked, given Reinsdorf’s history.

2024
As August — not September, not October — came to a close, the White Sox tied their all-time franchise losses mark with a 5-3 loss to the Mets. Back-to-back, two-out homers in the first inning ensured that New York would never trail in the game.

The loss dropped the White Sox to 31-106, tying the 1970 White Sox for most losses in team history. They had 25 games left to break the record.

2025
In the sixth inning of a 3-2 White Sox win over the Yankees in Chicago, rookie Colson Montgomery hammered a slider from Luis Gil to center field for a solo home run.

The 412-foot blast for Montgomery gave the shortstop 10 homers in August. That total tied José Abreu in April and June 2014 for the most by a rookie in a calendar month in White Sox history. On the season, it was No. 15 for the former first round draft pick.