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The Cardinals system is in a very good place. I don’t know how I personally feel about Brandon Clarke – I genuinely don’t know what my list will be at the end right now – but Clarke is a fringey but probably not actual top 100 prospect. You guys have ranked him 9th in the system! And not in like a “you guys are obviously underrating him” way (although some of you surely feel that way). Nah, the system is that good. He should be like the 5th best prospect in the system and I imagine would be most years I do this. We’re still finishing up the top 10 and getting players who some people think is a top 100 prospect.

1. JJ Wetherholt
2. Liam Doyle
3. Rainiel Rodriguez
4. Quinn Mathews
5. Joshua Baez
6. (or 7) Leonardo Bernal
7. (or 6) Jurrangelo Cjintje
8. Jimmy Crooks
9. Brandon Clarke

Jurrangelo Cjintje

In case you missed Thursday’s vote, Cjintje defeated Jimmy Crooks in a head-to-head as the #7 prospect. Because he was acquired in the middle of this top 20 feature, my solution was to run him head-to-head against all the top prospects until someone defeated him. We started with Crooks, and as you can probably guess by how I listed the current rankings, today it’s Cjintje versus Leonardo Bernal. I gave a full profile, but I’ll just list the scouting report section this time:

Cjintje is technically a switch pitcher, but it is very clear from the scouting and the numbers that he is a far better pitcher right-handed. From the right side, Cjintje throws mid-90s and has topped at 99 mph. He has both a cutter and a sweeper, though the sweeper is the better pitch. He also throws an upper-80s change. From his left side, he is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, throwing low 90s with a solid sweeper. Statistically, it wasn’t close. He walked more than he struck out and allowed 7 homers in 21 innings from the left side, but from the right side he had a 5.0 K/BB ratio and only allowed 3 homers in 34.1 IP.

High A: 19 G (16 GS), 74.2 IP, 26.4 K% 11.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%, .234 BABIP, 4.58 ERA/5.51 FIP/4.33 xFIP

AA: 7 GS, 33.2 IP, 25.5 K%, 11 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .299 BABIP, 2.67 ERA/3.42 FIP/4.01 xFIP

Scouting (FG): 55/60 Fastball, 50/60 Slider, 50/60 Change, 30/40 Command

VOTE HERE

Comparable Player Poll

One very good example of how much better the system is than in years past is that I still have to add multiple players who I feel would certainly be in the voting already. I sort of have a mental image of the quality of the prospect who should be added before the 10th vote. That is a difficult thing to do right now though because there’s probably five guys who fit that description. I won’t necessarily say that applies to both players in today’s vote…. but depending on the results, it may apply to the winner of this poll. Whether I add him on the next vote, well, that’ll be a tough decision. A tough decision that will be helped by knowing where these guys rank relative to each other.

Nathan Church is certainly an interesting case, being ignored in last year’s voting and making a late debut in 2025 due to injury. Once healthy, he killed both AA and AAA. He earned his way onto the MLB roster, appearing in 27 games. To say those 27 games probably went about as poorly as they could is not totally accurate. Offensively, it probably is. But his defense went about as well as possible. In both instances, I would say the small sample size should probably force you to not take either number at face value. (Some of you may have forgot Church was a prospect; this guy did at the beginning!)

You guys should be familiar with Chase Davis, making his second straight appearance in this section. Drafted in the 1st round in 2023, after a disappointing 34 games following the draft, he quickly ascended in 2024, finishing with 8 games in AA. Last year, he did manage an above average hitting line, but it came with not as much power as hoped and an elevated K rate. Defensively, we’re not totally sure, but he played mostly CF so at worst he seems like a good defender in the corners and at best, his defense will create a low bar for his bat to be successful.

VOTE HERE

New Add

I know Tai Peete should be in the voting. I know. However, I’ve been doing this for a few years and he really doesn’t have the profile of someone who will be surprisingly high. I will add him I promise. But he has a couple things going against him, namely his numbers were bad and he literally just got here. So long as I have a candidate who I think might get voted in the very vote where I add that player, I am going to be forced to pick somebody else.

That certainly applies to Tanner Franklin. Of the players I have yet to add, I think he has the best chance of being voted #10. It’s not a high chance, or he’d already be in the voting. But he does have the profile of someone who will be surprisingly high. Or least, I can see a decent percentage of voters thinking he should be on the list very soon, if not now. I don’t really think that’s true of Peete.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

Baez is an interesting prospect, because some parts of him feel contradictory. Read a scouting report, and you’ll likely read about his bad approach at the plate. Statistically, you’d have no idea he had a bad approach at the plate. He walks plenty and doesn’t strike out a lot. He’s fairly mistake-prone, but that could also just be a function of the fact that he has played professional baseball without being able to legally drink.

Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP

Stats: 3 GS, 6 IP, 32.1 K%, 17.9 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.50 ERA/3.95 FIP/4.28 xFIP

Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/55 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 30/40 Command

Franklin compiled those stats at both Low A and High A following getting drafted to slightly increase his innings total to prepare for this upcoming season. I don’t really think the stats themselves mean anything, but it’s nice to be able to share some stats. As you can see, he is a two-pitch pitcher searching for a third pitch to allow him to start. But he’s got a really good first pitch and a fairly strong second pitch as well.

Tink Hence, 23 – RHP

Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command

And here we have another example. Hence is probably a little more unique because of his relatively slight frame – even when he wasn’t getting injured, there was reliever risk. But just because Hence has been around for a while doesn’t mean he’s old yet – he’s the same age as Clarke. And Hence has already had a fantastic season at AA – if he’s healthy for most of this season, I have no doubt most of it will be in AAA. He might start the year in AA just for proof of concept, but he pitched far too good in 2024 to not think he’s ready for AAA. Unless his stuff has diminished because of the injuries.

Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command

Shoutout to Teddy Rugby, who pointed out that Jimmy Crooks’ “problem” as a prospect is that he’s boring. With prospects, it’s all about upside and loud tools. A good to great defensive catcher with a good enough bat is just not exciting. I’m making this comparison, because I think Henderson might be the pitching equivalent. It might be hard to vote for a Henderson when you see the big stuff of a Clarke or Hence or

Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP

Didn’t pitch

Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command

Seriously, we very quickly went from having a very boring stereotypical Cardinals pitching prospect to having a top 20 list littered with high variance, high risk pitching prospects. I think one could even argue Liam Doyle fits this a little: he’d be higher in the top 100 if he weren’t considered a little bit risky. If Clarke had the least concerning injuries, Hjerpe might be on the exact opposite side. Yes, I know he’s not the only who had Tommy John, however he is the only one who has maxed out at 41 innings.

Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 40/45 Curve, 35/40 Change, 45/55 Command

2026 will prove to be an important year for Mautz. I feel like we’ve seen a few of the underwhelming scouting starters who nonetheless manage to pitch well reach AAA and just hit a roadblock. I will say that usually that type of pitcher doesn’t strike out 28.6% of batters in AA however. That gives me more hope that he either has better stuff than what the scouting says or that he’s better at utilizing and knowing his stuff than pitchers in the past. Either way, it’s hard to argue with his results.

Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF

I do not have stats to share with you – I’m sure I can find high school stats, but they aren’t a lot of use on this kind of list. It doesn’t appear Fangraphs has given him scouting grades, I can’t find MLB Pipeline (and I don’t like how they give grades anyway, too high generally). I have access to Baseball Prospectus’ top 20, and while they don’t give Mitchell a scouting grade, I thought just sharing their blurb would suffice:

“Mitchell, a toolsy overslot second-rounder, didn’t play after the draft. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but his swing became one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk he won’t be able to get around against higher velocity fastballs, but his contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there’s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren’t any elite tools here, but he presents a pretty well-rounded infield profile and had an arrow up coming into the draft.”

(The Cardinals announced him as an outfielder, in the interview after the draft, he more or less seemed to confirm he’ll be an outfielder)

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Necessary disclaimer: no available scouting report for Ortiz that I can find. I’m sure that will change soon. But we’re making the list now, and stats is what we have to judge. And what good stats he had. He might be young enough to repeat High A to start the season, so I’ll actually be curious where he’s placed. He clearly hit well enough to start the year in AA. He also had over a .400 BABIP and it wasn’t that many PAs. The surest sign of a prospect to watch for is when they are aggressive with promotions. Both Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson advanced through the system very fast. I almost wish this list were made knowing whether or not he was placed in AA, because I think that would impact where I would place him.

Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS

Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

Padilla is taking a more conventional progression as a prospect, at least so far, and the fact that he was in the same class as Rainiel Rodriguez is doing him no favors in that respect. Just about anybody would pale in comparison to Rodriguez as a prospect at this point. A more conventional progression means time, which means Padilla might be on this top 20 for quite a few years. That said, I trust that 40 fielding grade about as much as I trust Lumon Industries. (Context clues can probably tell even non-Severance watchers what I mean by that)

Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA

AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA

Roby in my opinion was essentially where Hence will be in this upcoming season. Which is both good and bad. We weren’t sure if Roby’s stuff had diminished because his stuff was worse when he did pitch in 2024, but he also barely pitched and likely pitched injured. And then he came to spring and everything returned. And his results matched his stuff in the minors. And then he needed Tommy John. Aside from that last part, I hope Hence looks like Roby next year too.

VOTE HERE

(Little late and I had to repeat the profiles from the last post, because I did not write all of this article before I went to a Super Bowl party)

There’s been rumors for a while now that the Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t done in free agency, and Ben Cherington made good on that rumor this morning, with the Bucs signing DH/left fielder Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $12 million deal, according to ESPN. Ozuna will make $10.5 million in 2026, with a $16 million option for 2027 that has a $1.5 million buyout.

The 35-year-old Ozuna is coming off of a season in which he hit .232 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs with the Atlanta Braves. Ozuna has also hit 100 total homers over his last three seasons and now joins Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe as incoming hitters designed to give the Bucs some offensive oomph to complement their top-notch starting pitcher rotation.

Ozuna also carries 296 lifetime dingers, as well as a .269 lifetime average. He’s also been pretty healthy for his age, playing in 145, 162 and 144 games respectively over the last three seasons. However, Ozuna has struggled in his career when playing in Pittsburgh, hitting .225 with just one homer in 36 games played inside of PNC Park.

In addition to the Braves, Ozuna has also played for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins. He had perhaps his best season of his career with the Marlins in 2017, hitting .312 with 37 homers and 124 RBIs on the year.

This is likely the final signing for the Bucs before pitchers and catchers report later this week. The Pirates have balanced out their offense with another right-handed hitter and continue to add pieces around star pitcher Paul Skenes.

What do you think, BD? Is this signing enough to put the Pirates over the hump to contend in the division? Many were thinking the Bucs to be around a .500 club or slightly better. What does this do to your expectations on the year? Tell us in the comments.

MLB Trade Rumors: The Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to a trade that would send third baseman Caleb Durbin from Milwaukee to Boston in exchange for pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan and utility man David Hamilton, per multiple reports.

This is what happens when spring training is looming. Mickey Gilley used to sing that the girls all get prettier at closing time, a paean to how people get less choosy when there’s an imminent deadline. The Red Sox tried to bring last year’s third baseman, Alex Bregman, back, only to see him go to the Chicago Cubs. As mentioned in the Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal piece linked in the Ozuna post from about a half hour ago, Boston was in discussions on a potential Brendan Donovan trade with the Cardinals, either to get Donovan directly or to acquire Isaac Paredes from the Astros in a three-way deal that would see Donovan go to Houston.

Donovan ended up going to Seattle, and the Red Sox apparently haven’t been able to work anything out for Paredes, whose strong pull tendencies would potentially be a fit at Fenway, with the Green Monster, much as it is in Houston with the Crawford Boxes, leaving Boston still in search of a righthanded hitting infielder.

Thus the pivot to Durbin, who came seemingly out of nowhere in 2025 to finish third in the National League Rookie of the Year balloting. Durbin turns 26 in February, and was originally a 14th round pick in 2021 by the Atlanta Braves from Washington University in St. Louis, where my buddy from high school, Vivek, went to college. He was traded to the Yankees after the 2022 season, along with Indigo Diaz, for Lucas Luetge, then shipped to Milwaukee last offseason in the Devin Williams trade.

Durbin had never made BA’s top 30 prospect list for any of his clubs until cracking the list for Milwaukee prior to the 2025 season, when he was 23rd. He’s a Slappy McSlapperson, someone who doesn’t strike out, doesn’t walk much, and doesn’t hit the ball hard. He slashed .256/.334/.387 in 136 games for the Brewers last year, with OBP being boosted by a league-leading 24 HBPs — he was hit almost as many times as he walked (30). He put up a 2.6 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR. He also played second base and shortstop, and his profile seems to be more like a good utility guy, though if he can consistently put up 2-3 WAR (an open question, I admit) he’s a viable starting third baseman.

The package going back to Milwaukee isn’t terribly inspiring. Milwaukee gets Kyle Harrison, who the Red Sox got from the San Francisco Giants as part of the Rafael Devers trade last summer, a move that ultimately has led to Boston scrambling to field a third baseman this winter. They also got Jordan Hicks, who they foisted upon the ChiSox earlier this month, in that deal. Harrison is a 24 year old lefty and former top prospect who had a middling 2024 season, split his time between AAA and the majors with San Francisco before being traded, and then spent most of his time in the Red Sox org in AAA, getting just two starts and a relief appearance in September.

Drohan, 27, was a fifth rounder out of Florida State in 2020 who struggled early in his career, missed time due to injuries in 2024 and 2025, but had success in 2025, putting up a 2.27 ERA in 47 innings over 12 appearances at AAA. He could be useful, or he could get hurt again. Who knows.

Hamilton, 28, is a Texas native and UT product who was originally drafted by the Brewers in the 8th round in 2019, then traded to Boston after the 2021 season in the Hunter Renfroe/Jackie Bradley Jr. trade. He put up a 2.6 bWAR in just 98 games in 2024 while playing shortstop and slashing .248/.303/.395, then cratered to a .198/.257/.333 slash line in 2025, a cautionary tale, perhaps, for the Durbin believers.

UPDATE — Reports indicate that the Red Sox are also getting infielders Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler and a competitive balance B pick, which appears to be the #67 overall pick.

Monasterio, 28, bounced around a while before signing with Milwaukee as a minor league free agent after the 2021 season. He made his major league debut in 2023, and has spent the past three seasons in a utility role, slashing .250/.321/.351 in 219 games.

Siegler, 26, was a first round pick of the Yankees in 2018, but didn’t make the majors until 2025, with Milwaukee. He slashed .194/.292/.210 in 34 games, primarily at third base, though he also had a .285/.414/.478 slash line in 72 games in AAA, which represents the best season he’s had in the minors in his career.

Both players have options remaining.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Boston Red Sox have a third baseman!

As first reported by Jeff Passan (who else?) the Red Sox have acquired 25-year-old Caleb Durbin in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers. Heading the other way are Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan.

We’ll have more on Durbin soon, but the quick and dirty is that he plays a position of need, bats from the right side of the plate, and had a strong if unspectacular rookie year for the Brewers in 2025, slashing .256/.338/.387 with 11 homers and 18 steals in 136 games. His OPS+ was right at league average at 101, while his WAR numbers were 2.8 from Baseball Reference and 2.6 from FanGraphs.

As his slash line shows, Durbin has very little power. His offensive value comes from a good batting eye and a near elite ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts. The 9.9% strikeout rate he posted last year would have easily been the best mark on the Red Sox, nearly two full points lower than the next best rate, posted by Masataka Yoshida. He’s a pull hitter so moving to Fenway could give him a boost in the power department, but don’t expect too much there, as Durbin is just 5’7 and has an extremely slow bat. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard at all.

Defensively, he’s still learning to play third after bouncing around the diamond throughout the minors (where he actually spent more time at second). He doesn’t have a particularly strong arm and he had exactly zero Outs Above Average last year, making him (duh) exactly average in the field. Given that he’s still relatively new to the position, there might be some room for growth there.

Coming along to Boston in the deal will be Andruw Monasterio, a 28-year-old infielder who has been a Quad-A type for most of his career, Anthony Siegler, a 26-year-old who has split most of his minor league innings between catcher and second base, and a compensation round draft pick. I wouldn’t get too excited about either Monasterio or Siegler — there’s a good chance the Brewers would have DFA’d both of them in the near future.

So here we go: Spring Training is getting underway and it looks like Craig Breslow is done for now. Durbin fills a need, but he’s not exactly the bat the Red Sox wanted going into the offseason. Carry us now, Roman Anthony.

Morning all!

The Super Bowl has come and gone and with that comes the smell of fresh grass and Spring Training! Things are still happening on the free agent and trade markets but soon pitchers and catchers will be reporting and closely followed will be the start of exhibition games. It’s time to play ball!

What do the A’s have in store for us this year? Shortstop Jacob Wilson and first baseman Nick Kurtz are set to be the young cornerstones of the Athletics’ lineup along with veterans Shea Langeliers and DH Brent Rooker, so we have the heart of a playoff-worthy lineup already set. There remain questions regarding a couple positions (mainly third base) but the A’s won’t miss the playoffs because of their hitters.

Where the club will live and die will be on the pitchers. The team has found an interesting arm in Jacob Lopez but he’s just one man and had an injury to end his first full season. The A’s will need more from the guys in-house if we’re going to succeed. Veteran starter Luis Severino looked good at times but also not good at home and he’s not the front-line starter that we need. Lefty Jeffrey Springs was solid throughout the year but like Sevy doesn’t have the front-line upside the A’s need right now. Maybe that player will be Luis Morales but that’s asking a lot of a pitcher who has just 48 innings in the big leagues. But the pitching needs to get better all around, from the starting group to the relief corps. If the A’s sign a veteran starter to hand the ball to every fifth day that helps stabilize things a bit, but does it move the needle in our direction? We need to see improvements from guys like JT Ginn, Mason Barnett, Gunnar Hoglund, and hopefully even Luis Medina, who was once considered the future but lost his 2025 season to Tommy John surgery. Can one of the young guys step up to that challenge? We’ll be finding out soon enough. Who else is ready for baseball?!

Have a good Monday everyone!

A’s Coverage:

• Little Signings Everywhere
• A’s Claim Andy Ibanez, Add Scott Barlow In Busy Roster Shuffle
• Athletics Sign Jacob Wilson to Extension
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Echavarria Takes #9 Spot
• Extensions For Everyone! (Except Kurtz)
• Wilson extension signals shift for A’s ahead of Vegas move
• Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
• De Vries (No. 4 overall) leads Athletics trio on Top 100 Prospects list
• A’s Spring Training Report Date, and everything you need to know
• After monster stats as rookie, Nick Kurtz has a new number in mind: 162
• Projecting Nick Kurtz after Rookie of the Year campaign

MLB News and Interest:

• Mets sign outfielder MJ Melendez to 1-year contract
• Pirates, Red Sox among teams interested in Isaac Paredes
• Former speedster Terrance Gore passes away at 34
• Examining Jordan Hicks’ future with the White Sox
• Yasiel Puig found guilty in gambling probe
• Looking at the Angels’ internal infield options
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Not too sure, but Ibanez does add a different element to the third base question…

Updated odds for the A’s starting 3rd baseman:

Still Muncy’s job to lose. pic.twitter.com/mADUkBsH1D

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) February 7, 2026

Speaking of third base, we should all be focused on Hernaiz during the upcoming WBC:

How much of an impact could Darell Hernaiz playing in the WBC have on the A's roster battle this spring? https://t.co/NQCpAZOSRT

— Jason Burke (@ByJasonB) February 8, 2026

May be controversial, but I don’t think so. We know Brent doesn’t have a bad bone in his body.

Watching my kids sing Disney songs is apparently racist btw https://t.co/v8NFPVrUKa

— Brent Rooker (@Brent_Rooker25) February 9, 2026

As we close in on the opening of spring camp with pitchers and catchers due to report on Wednesday, pitching has rightly been the focus in recent weeks. Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal have kept that group firmly in the spotlight. The position players won’t have to report for a few extra days on February 15, but the attention is going to start turning their way quickly with the pitching staff now in a very good place. There are a few names to key on, but certainly one of them is going to be Kerry Carpenter.

After a down year in which Carpenter’s plate discipline cracked over the course of the season, and now just two years from free agency, the popular slugger could really use a bit of a bounceback season in which he stays healthy for a full year. His team’s ambition to make a deep run in October looks a lot more realistic if he can manage it.

2025 was still a pretty good year at the plate by most players’ standards. Carpenter hit .253 with 26 home runs over 464 plate appearances. He got roughly three-quarters of a season’s worth of at-bats despite a hamstring injury that he tried to play through in June before finally hitting the injured list for much of July. Going a full year without his hamstrings or his back tightening up on him would certainly help his chances of a big season, but he’s never managed a full season without an issue cropping up.

On the downside, Carpenter’s walk rate cratered to just 3.9 percent, producing a pretty miserable .291 on-base percentage that really held down his overall production despite the power. A 115 wRC+ is still well above average, but it was also the worst mark of his pro career. No one expects Carpenter to be an on-base machine, but he’s got to work that back to the .310-.320 OBP range.

His chase rates, which hit career lows in 2024 and looked to have him on track to become a more selective, more dangerous hitter in his late 20’s, spiked 3.5 percent to 34.8 percent, significantly worse than league average. He did make more contact overall, trimming his swinging strike rate a bit, but he also took more called strikes than usual. For a player trying to earn more playing time against left-handed hitters by showing a more mature approach, taking more strikes and swinging at more pitches you can’t drive is decidedly not the path. Carpenter is no longer a young player who might breakout. Instead he just needs to maximize the tools he already has to work with.

Looking through his numbers, there is no smoking gun that really gives cause for concern other than the overall chase rate. His bat speed still looks unchanged, and he was extremely good againt fastballs in 2025 as usual. He posted a strong .385 wOBA against all fastballs in 2025, and a .376 wOBA against fastballs above 94 mph. That is very positive, illustrating that there’s no underlying weakness in his physical ability at the plate. He whiffed a little more against breaking balls in 2025, but he also did more damage against them, which also suggests that a slight down year might just be random variation and possibly the result of playing with a sore hamstring for much of June. He was somewhat streaky in 2025, but his 112 wRC+ in the first half, and his 118 wRC+ in the second half, say he was still reasonably productive throughout the year.

So, plate discipline is one minor area of concern. The other is that fairly lengthy injury history. Going back to 2023, Carpenter dealt with a strained hamstring coming out of camp. He then injured his shoulder in late April and missed six weeks of time on the injured list. In 2024 he missed time from late May to mid-August with a lumbar stress fracture, and then aggravated his left hamstring in the ALDS. Then we had a right hamstring strain in 2025 that plagued him for weeks in late May and throughout June before he finally went on the injured list in July.

On the plus side, Carpenter still has average speed and there’s no sign of him losing a step defensively despite playing through the hamstring issue. He was a negative 3 Outs Above Average in 2025, which is not ideal, but basically par for the course for Carpenter. He was 23rd out of 36 qualifed right fielders, so very far from the bottom of the list. The injuries don’t seem to be cutting into his overall athletic ability. They just keep limiting his total production by putting him on the injured list for a stint every season.

Carpenter is still a valuable, dangerous hitter. He’s still a force in the lineup against right-handed pitching, and his somewhat maligned defense is still just a little below average rather than a problem. For an unheralded ninth round pick back in 2019, he’s already far exceeded expectations. Right-handed pitchers do not want to see Kerry Carpenter up in a big spot late in a game. That much is certain. It’s just getting hard to envision Carpenter getting any better than we’ve already seen from him, or just putting together one big season where everything goes right. He’s tracking more like a player who is at his peak and may start declining over the next year or two. It would be nice to see the trendline flip back the other way.

Season	PA	wRC+	K%	BB%	HR	ISO	fWAR
2023	459	121	25.1	7.0	20	0.194	1.9
2024	295	158	25.3	7.4	18	0.303	2.4
2025	464	115	22.8	3.9	26	0.245	1.5

Projection systems like ZIPS do forecast more walks and a return to a more respectable on-base percentage this season. ZIPS projects a .262/.318/.491 slashline with 24 home runs in 464 plate appearances in 2026. That would do nicely, and is well within Carpenter’s abilities. Combine that with a bit below average defense in right field, and you still have a very good strong side platoon player.

A sticking point for some fans remains Carpenter getting pinch-hit for against left-handers. He holds a miserable 69 wRC+ against lefties in his career, though he’s only had 197 plate appearances against southpaws in his career. His numbers weren’t any better against them in 2025, so you can expect it to continue. A.J. Hinch can’t miss opportunities to put a lefty masher like Jahmai Jones into a prime spot.

This is always the difficulty with having platoons rather than stars who can do it all at several positions. Hinch makes it work and there weren’t many instances during the season in which Carpenter started, was pinch-hit for late in a game, and ultimately missed out on a plate appearance later. Plus, sitting him against left-handed starters means that Hinch can pick a high leverage spot in which to bring Carpenter off the bench, putting opposing managers in a difficult position.

Ultimately, Kerry Carpenter should bounce back a little and otherwise continue to do Kerry Carpenter things. It would just be great to see him get through a full season of good health and really see him max out his production for a season. With two years left to free agency and due to turn 29 in September, it would be very good for him as well. As a fan favorite, and an integral part of the lineup, we’d love to see a huge season from Carpenter, but all he really needs to do is recover a bit of selectivity at the plate this season. If he can manage that, the Tigers will be plenty happy with his production as usual.

Earlier this winter, the Mets signed outfielder Cristian Pache to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, a very standard offseason contract for a player looking to revitalize a stalled major league career. Pache, who last appeared in a major league game in 2024, will look to claim a roster spot after failing to break through with the Diamondbacks last season.

If Pache’s name rings a bell but you can’t quite place him, it’s because he has suited up for many of the Mets’ rivals over the years, making the outfielder no stranger to the National League East. A former top prospect who signed for $1.4 million as an international free agent in 2015—MLB.com ranked him as the tenth-best international free agent at the time—he debuted for the Braves in 2020 and played parts of two seasons for Atlanta. He slashed .119/.157/.209 with a -5 wRC+ and a -0.6 fWAR in 24 games before being traded to the Athletics as part of the Matt Olson trade in March 2022.

He got his most playing time for any singular season in then-Oakland (91 games) and hit .166/.218/.241 with a 33 wRC+ and a -1.0 fWAR, and he was eventually traded to the Phillies for Billy Sullivan. He had his best offensive season in 2023, hitting .238/.319/.417 with a 98 wRC+ and a career-best 0.5 fWAR in 48 games. He started 2024 with Philadelphia but was traded along with Seranthony Domínguez to the Orioles for former Mets offseason target Austin Hays. After just three games, he was designated for assignment and latched on with the Marlins, where he spent the rest of 2024 and hit .183/.234/.283 with a 43 wRC+ and a -0.1 fWAR in 35 games. He signed a minor league game with Arizona and spent the whole year in the minors before electing free agency and ending up with the Mets, which catches us up to the present day.

Pache can play any of the three outfield positions, but he has primarily appeared at center field, appeared in 191 of his 241 career games in center. His primary value is his outfield versatility, and it’s easy to see a world where the Mets thought he could be an ideal fourth outfielder. However, he was signed before the team brought in Luis Robert Jr., whose signing pushed Tyrone Taylor to the fourth outfield position. That makes Pache’s path to Citi Field somewhat more difficult. To make matters more complicated for Pache, the team signed MJ Melendez to a major league deal on Sunday, which puts Melendez one step higher on the depth chart. Melendez is much more adept to the corner outfield spots and would almost assuredly see the time there before Pache does. The team is expected to carry one backup outfielder, as well as a utility player who can cover multiple positions, including the outfield.

Pache’s offense, as previously highlighted, is fairly non-existent. He strikes out a ton (30.8% career K%) and doesn’t walk much (7.2% career BB%). He also doesn’t really steal bases, with five career stolen bases to date while also being caught stealing five times. He doesn’t have much power, with seven homers and a .093 ISO. He is a very strong defender, however, with a 4 OAA in 2024, a 4 OAA in 2023, and a 6 OAA in 2022. His arm strength was in the 92nd percentile in 2022, while he was also above average in OAA and arm value.

Beyond an impressive spring training, Pache likely would only find himself playing for the Mets with an injury to Robert or Taylor, or if the left field options don’t cut it and Taylor mans one of the corners. Beyond that, Pache will likely find himself in Triple-A for much of the year, or off of the club’s roster altogether.

As you will recall, about a year ago MLB and ESPN jointly agreed to void the final three years of their deal.

That would have been it between MLB and the “Worldwide Leader,” but later in 2025 the league and the channel put together another agreement that will keep baseball on ESPN this year, though in somewhat of a different form (for example, the Sunday Night Baseball franchise is moving to NBC).

As part of the new MLB/ESPN agreement, the league licensed the rights to its out-of-market product, MLB.TV, to ESPN.

Drew Lerner of Awful Announcing picks up the story:

Initially, the idea was that fans would not need to use MLB’s app for MLB.tv; they could simply purchase the product through the ESPN app and watch games there. That changed shortly after the deal was announced. For at least the 2026 season, fans will still be able to access MLB.tv directly through MLB’s platforms. But there’s a big catch.

With few exceptions, MLB.tv subscribers will also need to be ESPN Unlimited subscribers to purchase the package. In other words, MLB.tv is now behind a double paywall. You’ll need to purchase MLB.tv, which is priced at $150 per season for new subscribers and $135 for returning subscribers, in addition to the ESPN Unlimited plan, which is $30 per month.

Now, there are some caveats. MLB.tv offers a free month of ESPN Unlimited upon signup. MLB.tv subscribers can cancel the ESPN Unlimited subscription during their free trial and still retain access to MLB.tv throughout the entire season. Likewise, if you already have access to ESPN Unlimited through your cable, satellite, or virtual TV provider, there’s no need to pay the extra $30 per month.

Oh.

Basically, if you are a new subscriber to MLB.TV this year, you’ll have to also sign up for ESPN Unlimited. As noted, at least for 2026 you can cancel ESPN Unlimited within the free trial window (30 days) and still have MLB.TV. It’s unclear whether this will continue for the 2027 season and beyond.

Also:

Additionally, if your MLB.tv subscription is set to be auto-renewed from last season, you will not need an ESPN Unlimited subscription.

So that’s good, at least. According to that, if you are a current MLB.TV subscriber and renewing, this new ESPN subscription requirement won’t apply to you. Again, though, it’s unclear whether this applies to fans who receive MLB.TV as season-ticket holders or get it by being a T-Mobile customer. The T-Mobile deal is still in place, as far as I know, but… who knows for sure, with this new system. It’s also unclear as to what this will do to anyone who buys the single-team version of MLB.TV (for example, if you buy the Cubs-only package).

Drew Lerner concludes:

Regardless, this is insanely confusing for fans. No doubt, several MLB.tv subscribers will be fooled into paying for an ESPN Unlimited subscription they don’t need, either by failing to cancel during the one-month free trial or paying the $30 per month when they already have ESPN Unlimited included in their pay TV bundle.

Absolutely, positively true. This is yet another example of MLB owners and Commissioner Rob Manfred simply pocketing as much money as they can and not caring about the impact on fans, who are, well, their customers. What sort of business does that? (Don’t answer that, it’s a rhetorical question.)

Mainly, I wrote this article as a public service to those of you who subscribe to MLB.TV. Be careful on signup to see what you’re signing up for and if you have to take the “free trial” ESPN Unlimited subscription and don’t want it, make sure you note the date you sign up and cancel within 30 days.

You’re welcome.

I met Clete Boyer once.

In his later years, Boyer spent summers in Cooperstown, and my family went to see the Hall of Fame once almost every summer in the mid-2000s. We had a running joke about Boyer because every time we went, there was a sign in the downtown that said “Clete Boyer: SIGNING TODAY!” as if it was an unusual event. In 2006, we decided to actually go see him once and ask him to sign a baseball. I was going through a weird phase where I was wearing a different team’s hat every other day, even though I was a Yankees fan. So for whatever reason, I had an Astros cap on (National League era) when I met Boyer. He tilted his head and said “You’re wearing the wrong hat.”

I didn’t know what to say. And that’s the story of how I basically blew my only opportunity to meet Clete Boyer, probably the best defensive third baseman in Yankees history. So it goes. Boyer was a two-time World Series champion and a valued member of those early-1960s Yankees teams. It’s been quite awhile since they played, but that doesn’t mean memories of them should fade.

Cletis Leroy Boyer
Born: February 9, 1937 (Cassville, MO)
Died: June 4, 2007 (Lawrenceville, GA)
Yankees Tenure: 1959-66

Being one of 14 children born to Mable and Vern Boyer, it was always going to be difficult for Clete to stand out. 

The Boyers were raised in the small rural town of Alba, Missouri. Vern Boyer supported his family as a marble cutter. Clete was born during the Great Depression and his family life — like many during that period — was filled with hardship. All but one of Mabel Boyer’s children were delivered at home. As David Halberstam later wrote in October 1964, “the Boyers played hard, worked hard, and accepted life as full of hardship and disappointment.”

Those circumstances did not stop the family from making the most of their opportunities. Remarkably, all seven of the Boyer boys would sign major-league contracts. The oldest, Cloyd Boyer, signed with the Cardinals and broke into the majors as a pitcher in 1949. St. Louis had its eye on the Boyers, as all four of Clete’s older brothers would become Cardinals.

It strangely wasn’t the Cards who ended up signing Clete. It was the Kansas City Athletics, who also employed Cloyd Boyer at the time. The A’s inked Clete to a $35,000 deal on May 30, 1955, and because of his value and due to the “bonus baby” rules at the time, they had to keep the 18-year-old on their big-league roster for two years. Even on a lousy team like the A’s, Boyer wasn’t going to see much time, and he was simply going to struggle against MLB pitching. He hit a dismal .226/.278/.269 with a 47 OPS+ in 114 games during his teenage years bouncing around the infield in K.C.

In the 1950s though, the Kansas City A’s were a Yankees farm club in all but name. Owner Arnold Johnson was well-connected with the Yankees’ ownership group, and he had no qualms about sending his best young players to New York for retreads and cash. There was even a rumor that the Yankees gave Johnson the money to sign Boyer as a future investment since they were over slot in ’55. Sure enough, Boyer ended up in pinstripes in 1957 as a not-so-subtle player to be named later in a preposterous 13-player deal. Following the trade, the Yankees sent Boyer to Class-A Binghamton to find his game, no longer hindered by the “bonus baby” tag. 

In Binghamton, Boyer showed power and a knack for the shortstop position. Boyer was promoted to Triple-A in ’58 and continued to show his complete game, batting .284/.353/.494 in 132 games with 22 dingers. Boyer’s big season in Triple-A earned him a spot on the Opening Day roster in ‘59. 

Boyer struggled to find playing time behind Tony Kubek at shortstop. And when he did, he simply did not hit. The Yankees smartly sent Boyer back to Triple-A Richmond to find his footing at the hot corner. The work paid off when Boyer was named the starting third baseman. He was a regular in the 1960 lineup, appearing in 124 games and slugging 14 home runs. The Yankees went on to win the AL pennant and Boyer would appear in his first World Series — but not without drama.

What seems to be a common theme among the non-superstar Yankees of the Casey Stengel Era is that his platoon style of managing was overzealous and often rubbed players the wrong way. Game 1 of the 1960 World Series saw much of the same from Stengel. Trailing in the second inning, Stengel pinch-hit for Boyer — in what would have been his first World Series at-bat. Boyer succinctly summed up his feelings on Stengel: “Everybody hated him. When he came out of his mother, the doctor slapped her.”

Boyer had an .833 OPS in his first World Series, but Stengel only used him in four games. The Yankees fell in seven.

Stengel was let go at the end of the 1960 campaign, and replacement Ralph Houk allowed his regulars to play every day. And while Boyer struggled at the plate, his dominant defensive play continued to come into form. His 353 assists at third base led the league in 1961. Yankees second baseman Bobby Richardson once stated “When I made the double play, I could just about close my eyes, put my glove up and the ball would be there.”

The Yankees walked through the AL to another pennant in 1961. Game 1 of the ’61 Fall Classic would take on a much different tone than Boyer’s Game 1 of the previous season. Boyer made two diving plays in that game — proceeding to throw both runners out from his knees. His two incredible plays helped secure a two-hit shutout for Whitey Ford. Ford later said, “No third baseman ever played better than Clete did in the 1961 Series.”

Boyer was now a World Series champion, and he sought to add another ring to his hand in 1962. He put forth what was likely his best season as a Yankee, batting .272/.331/.413 with 18 homers, a 101 wRC+, and 5.1 fWAR. He was at his defensive peak, as great a third baseman as even longtime coach and former player Frankie Crosetti had seen in 30 years.It wasn’t the easiest task hitting in front of pitchers either and finding pitches to hit, but Boyer found a way to get the job done.

The 1962 season also saw Boyer’s finest Fall Classic. It was another seven-gamer, and this time, he played every contest, rewarding Houk’s faith with a .318/.333/.500 line and a homer in the World Series opener:

With the series on the line in the ninth inning of Game 7 in a 1-0 game and Willie McCovey up with the bases loaded against Bill Mazeroski 1960 World Series walk-off victim Ralph Terry, Boyer later admitted that his knees were shaking at third. Fortunately, McCovey’s liner went straight to Richardson’s glove at second, and the Yankees were champions again.

The next two seasons were a regression at the plate for Boyer. He posted an 83 wRC+ in ’63 and a 57 wRC+ in ’64. Boyer still impressed in the field with flashy defense and the Yankees continued to win pennants, but Boyer and the Yankees fell in back-to-back World Series to the Dodgers and then the Cardinals. 

Despite the loss for Clete, the 1964 World Series was a special one for the Boyer family, as his hot corner counterpart in St. Louis was his brother, Ken. The soon-to-be-named NL MVP was getting his first taste of postseason baseball and did not disappoint. His offensive game was at its peak, including a series-changing grand slam in Game 4. Clete’s series was not as good, but he did manage a ninth-inning homer off the sensational Bob Gibson in Game 7 to keep the series alive, making the duo the first brothers to ever go deep in the same World Series game.

Clete recalled quietly being happy for his brother once the dust had settled, as he was a terrific player and deserving of a championship ring. Baseball was always a family affair, so it was fitting that this scenario played out for the Boyer family. 

Although Clete would never make it back to the World Series, he rebounded in ’65, cracking 18 home runs and posting a 104 wRC+. His production at the plate continued into ’66 but the Yankees were in free-fall. After five consecutive pennants, the Yankees missed the playoffs in ’65 and finished last in ’66. With the new CBS ownership in place and the Yankees going nowhere, the organization decided to move on from Boyer, trading him to Atlanta on November 29, 1966. 

Boyer used the motivation of replacing Braves legend Eddie Mathews, the hitter-friendly confines of “The Launching Pad” (then Atlanta Stadium), and the protection of Joe Torre and Henry Aaron helped propel him to a career-high 26 bombs during his first season in the South. He could never repeat his offensive production from his first season with the Braves but put up solid numbers again in ’69. That was a special one for Boyer, who after years of playing in the same league as Brooks Robinson was able to secure his first Gold Glove award. Reflecting on Boyer years later, Torre said, “He came up during the Brooks Robinson era and didn’t get as much attention because of Brooksie, but he could play third base … Great arm.”

In that inaugural season of divisional play, Boyer’s Braves won the first NL West crown (yes, NL West; it’s a long story). However, the “Miracle Mets” swept them away and Boyer could only record one hit in the last playoff series of his career. By 1971, a public feud between Atlanta GM Paul Richards and Boyer was brewing regarding a contract dispute. Richards had slashed Boyer’s salary in 1970 and 1971, with Richards calling Boyer a “sorry player.” The disdain ultimately led to the buyout of Boyer’s contract.

A unique new opportunity arose for Boyer when the Taiyō Whales of Japan’s Central League reached out to him to see if he would be interested in joining them for the ’72 season. With no MLB offers waiting, the 35-year-old Boyer decided to give it a try. It turned out to be a brilliant decision, as he made double what he was making in Atlanta and took advantage of Japan’s cozy parks, averaging 17 homers and a .437 slugging percentage per season during his four years with Taiyo. While they never sniffed the playoffs, Boyer enjoyed his time there and became one of the first former major leaguers to truly embrace Japanese baseball and culture.

Boyer wanted to stay involved with baseball, and he immediately entered coaching, first with Taiyō in 1976 before eventually returning stateside. When Billy Martin became the skipper of the now-Oakland A’s in 1980, Boyer was tapped to be his third base coach, returning to his original franchise. He remained in that role under multiple Oakland managers through ’85. The Yankees hired Boyer first as a minor-league infield instructor, and then to join Martin again in the dugout in ’88, only to find himself out of the job after Martin’s fifth and final Yankees firing.

The Yankees briefly had Boyer managing their Fort Lauderdale club in ’89, and then Stump Merrill had Boyer on his Yankees coaching staff in ’91. When a young Buck Showalter ascended to the Yankees managerial reins in ’92, he made the 55-year-old Boyer his third-base coach to add an older voice to the clubhouse. He was bumped up to bench coach in ’94 before finally stepping away from the rigors of a 162-game coaching schedule. Boyer remained involved with the Yankees organization through 2003 as an instructor and Old-Timers’ Day regular, and then passed away at age 70 in June 2007 due to complications from a stroke.

Thanks again for the autograph all those years ago, Clete. Rest easy.

Editor’s note: Portions of this article have been adapted from former Pinstripe Alley writer Casey Peterson’s far-more-detailed Top 100 Yankees story on Clete Boyer from 2023 and an earlier 2017 edition of the Top 100 that I worked on myself.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

14. Roc Riggio (294 points, 19 ballots)

Riggio, who was the headline prospect in the Jake Bird trade with the Yankees near last year’s trade deadline, is a decent up-the-middle defender who has both power and patience at the plate, all in a compact 5’9” package. The 23-year-old lefty-hitting, righty-throwing second baseman had a breakout 2025, tearing up High-A and Double-A for the Yankees before joining the Rockies organization (where he didn’t quite keep up that torrid pace).

Riggio was a well-regarded player out of high school, but a commitment to Oklahoma State resulted in a fall to the 11th round in 2021 (though he didn’t sign with the Brewers who had drafted him there). Two strong years with Josh Holliday’s team (including a 1.139 OPS his draft year) led to Riggio getting drafted in the fourth round of 2023 by the Yankees and signing for a $693k bonus that was almost $200k over the slot value.

As a professional, Riggio was solid in his first full year of professional ball in 2024, putting up a walk-heavy 117 wRC+ (.221/.349/.397) with 11 homers and 27 steals in High-A at a league-average age. In 2025, Riggio was delayed a month by a hand injury and went back to High-A. He quickly showed that he had mastered the level, hitting .264/.436/.597 with six homers in 94 plate appearances while walking 21% of the time, which was a 195 wRC+. That earned Riggio a promotion to Double-A, where he was slightly below league average age.

Against upper minors pitching, Riggio kept on hitting well. In 170 plate appearances with New York’s Double-A affiliate, he hit 11 homers and 10 doubles en route to a .261/.335/.542 line (155 wRC+, though he only walked in 8% of PA) before getting traded away to the Rockies at the deadline. Riggio was assigned to Hartford (which is the same league he was beating up on in the Yankees system), where his power surge diminished a bit. Riggio hit .256/.346/.389 with two homers and six doubles in 107 plate appearances (113 wRC+), buoyed by a 13% walk rate. Those Hartford numbers were bolstered by an excellent September in which Riggio put up a .905 OPS in 39 plate appearances. In the field, Riggio committed seven errors in 66 games at second base.

Here’s a look at Riggio’s 2024 offensive and defensive highlights, beginning with a double play that has to be seen to be believed and which shows Riggio’s baseball IQ (as does his straight steal of home later in the video):

There is some divisiveness around Riggio as a prospect. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com has been highest on Riggio, ranking him second in the system and 120th overall in MLB last week (no writeup), while Keith Law of the Athletic didn’t rank Riggio in his top 20 earlier this month. Law wrote that:

Riggio is an undersized second baseman who swings straight up, somehow slugging over .500 in Double-A Somerset in 40 games, then slugging .389 at the same level in Hartford afterward. I don’t think he’s more than an emergency call-up

MLB.com recently ranked Riggio as the ninth best second base prospect in the sport with a 45 FV grade, though without any standout tools:

As an undersized masher who doesn’t get cheated at the plate, Riggio has reminded some of a left-handed-hitting Dustin Pedroia type, albeit without the same pure hit tool. With an open stance and a leg kick, he thrives on getting the ball in the air to his pull side, with the bulk of his 20 homers a year ago leaving the yard that way. He’s not afraid to work counts or draw walks and can punish fastballs, but while his overall approach is solid, he struggles with breaking stuff (40 percent miss rate in 2025) and didn’t handle lefties well.

While he’s a below-average runner, Riggio likes to move on the basepaths, though he was less successful last year when attempting to steal. He’s likely limited to second base, but he has enough skills to perhaps stick at the keystone as a bat-first regular, with perhaps a floor on the long end of a platoon.

Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs liked Riggio the most of the Rockies’ trade acquisitions (ranking him 10th among players dealt at the deadline and comparing him to Roughned Odor in both skill and demeanor) and grades him as a 45 FV player, seventh in the system with a 60 future grade on fielding to go with 55 grades on power:

Lefty-hitting infielders with this kind of bat speed are uncommon, and the Yankees made changes to Riggio’s swing (he has a much bigger leg kick now) that have made it more athletic and seem to have positively impacted his plate coverage. He’s been more dangerous than vulnerable against pitches out away from him this year, and had a 55% hard-hit rate around the midway point of the summer. Riggio is no slouch as a defender, either, even though he is likely limited to second base. His surface stats are a caricature of his true talent because the hitting environments at Hudson Valley and Somerset are favorable, but this is still an “arrow up” prospect who is starting to look like a potential everyday second baseman.

Riggio has big league-regular potential at second base thanks to his power/patience combo, defensive instincts, and overall baseball IQ. I’m excited about his offensive potential with the Rockies and am inclined to round up his likelihood of reaching that potential, ranking him sixth on my ballot as a 45 FV player. Riggio will be in the upper minors scrum in 2026 but figures to compete for a big-league roster spot with post-prospects Adael Amador and Ryan Ritter before he’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season.

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Baseball is all about probabilities, and that theorem also applies to prospects trying to become big leaguers. All players in professional ball have talent, of course; it’s just that the competition level is so high and the margin for error so thin that there is a chance of failure for just about everyone.

So what makes for a high-probability position player talent? Being able to consistently hit pitches very hard is deeply important. Plate discipline—both in the ability to draw walks and avoid striking out too much—is also important. So, too, is the ability to play competent defense, especially at a premium position. And while good tools are nice, players who utilize their toolsets to dominate competition in the Minor Leagues are more likely to succeed than those who struggle. 

If that previous paragraph sounds like I’m describing Carter Jensen, that’s because it is. The Kansas City Royals selected Jensen with the 78th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Park Hill High School, whose campus is a quick 25-minute drive away from Kauffman Stadium. And while all high schoolers have high risk, Jensen has blossomed into a really promising player and made his MLB debut last September.

Prospect lists aren’t everything, but they give a good sense of how industry professionals who have watched and evaluated more baseball than you or I ever will think of a player—and Jensen is regarded quite well. MLB.com lists Jensen as the 18th best prospect in the game. The Athletic has Jensen at 10th overall. Baseball Prospectus has Jensen at 44th overall. Baseball America lists Jensen as the 11th best prospect.

And yet, man, I think people are still sleeping on Jensen. 

That’s because of the third factor, the secret sauce if you will, in the cauldron of traits that contribute to probability that a minor leaguer will make it: age. We see players hit well all the time in Minor League Baseball, and even do so at the upper levels. Most players who do so, however, are old for the league. Remember deep cut Royals prospect Balbino Fuenmayor? He hit an absurd .358/.384/.589 across Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. But he did so while already playing in his age-25 season. 

Jensen has been excellent throughout the minor leagues, and has consistently done so at very young ages. And in fact, last year’s campaign put Jensen in extremely rarified air. I went and pulled all players who met this qualifications over the last decade:

• In age-21 or younger season
• Minimum 400 plate appearances
• At least 1 PA in Triple-A
• Walk rate above 12%
• Strikeout rate below 25%
• Isolated slugging percentage above .200
• wRC+ of at least 130

Jensen was one such player. But across the thousands of players who have played in the Minors during that time, there are only eight other players who qualify. It’s a good list, featuring three Rookie of the Year winners, a Rookie of the Year top-three finalist, an MVP award winner, a current top prospect, and multiple other productive big leaguers. 

#	Name	Team	Level	Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2025	Jett Williams	NYM	AA,AAA	21	572	13.3%	22.9%	0.261	0.363	0.465	136
2025	Carter Jensen	KCR	AA,AAA	21	492	12.2%	24.8%	0.290	0.377	0.501	136
2024	Roman Anthony	BOS	AA,AAA	20	540	14.6%	23.5%	0.291	0.396	0.498	147
2023	Coby Mayo	BAL	AA,AAA	21	614	15.1%	24.1%	0.290	0.410	0.563	153
2022	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	AA,AAA	21	503	15.7%	23.1%	0.297	0.416	0.531	152
2022	Corbin Carroll	ARI	AA,AAA,CPX	21	442	15.2%	24.2%	0.307	0.425	0.610	144
2022	Francisco Alvarez	NYM	AA,AAA	20	495	14.1%	24.8%	0.260	0.374	0.511	137
2021	Spencer Torkelson	DET	A+,AA,AAA	21	530	14.5%	21.5%	0.267	0.383	0.552	150
2016	Cody Bellinger	LAD	AA,AAA	20	477	12.6%	19.7%	0.271	0.365	0.507	147

But Jensen didn’t stop there: he is one of only four players in the last decade to fit all of those categories and also make his MLB debut the same year. The three players who qualify for that extra category are Gunnar Henderson (2023 AL RoY winner), Corbin Carroll (2023 NL RoY winner), and Francisco Alvarez (career 105 wRC+ and 6.6 fWAR in only 304 career games). 

To quote the indomitable Adam Savage, failure is always an option; Coby Mayo’s big league career to date is a testament to that truth. Jensen could always end up on the Mayo path. And yet, probabilities are what they are, and given the skills that Jensen has already shown—elite exit velocity, excellent plate discipline, solid contact ability, and a knack for adjusting to continually more difficult pitching at a young age—it is very likely that Jensen is very good very quickly. 

Despite a very strong resume, Jensen is viewed mostly as an afterthought in the American League Rookie of the Year prediction circuit. MLB Pipeline recently interviewed 44 front office officials, and only three of them predicted that he’d win. 

Maybe that’s good for Jensen. We all saw what kind of pressure Jac Caglianone was under last year. In any case, Jensen should be getting more buzz. He’s ready. He’s gonna be good. And it’ll be fun to watch.

The people have spoken and left-handed pitcher Josh Hartle is our No. 19 Cleveland Guardians prospect for 2026. Hartle commanded 31.6% of the vote, defeating the likes of the likes of Andrew Walters (21.1%), Austin Peterson (11.6%), Jacob Cozart (8.4%) and Petey Halpin (8.4%).

Hartle was a third round draft pick out of Wake Forest by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024. Supposedly, Cleveland was interested in taking him at the time, but the Pirates got to Hartle first (and the Guardians ended up selecting Joey Oakie later that round, so it was a win-win).

The 6-foot-6 southpaw pitched just 1.2 innings the year he was drafted in one appearance at Single-A. He then was traded to Cleveland in the Spencer Horwitz deal. With Luis Ortiz doing you-know-what, Hartle is now the headliner of that deal.

Cleveland sent Hartle straight to High-A to begin 2025 and he pitched tremendously well there. Over the course of 22 starts, he posted an elite 2.35 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.06 FIP. He struck out 24% of batters and walked 8.9%. He also was named the Midwest League Pitcher of the Year.

Hartle earned a cup of coffee at Double-A, where he made two starts and pitched reasonably well. He’ll likely begin the 2026 campaign there.

Despite his size, Hartle isn’t a burner with elite velocity. He sits in the low 90s and touches about 94 mph with his fastball. His changeup currently is his best pitch and his cutter and slider aren’t too far behind. While he hasn’t flashed elite strikeout stuff, he has done a good job of mitigating hard contact.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 20 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:

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Robert Arias, OF (Age 19)
2025 (ACL) 198 PA, .287/.389/.402, 2 HR, 29 SB, 14.6 BB%, 11.1 K%, 116 wRC+

A top Cleveland international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2024, Arias has easily walked more than striking out and had a strong stateside debut last year in the Complex League.

Jacob Cozart, C (Age 23)
2025 (A+) 308 PA, .229/.344/.364, 7 HR, 0 SB, 13.3 BB%, 21.1K%, 106 wRC+
2025 (AA) 94 PA, .256/.330/.390, 2 HR, 0 SB, 8.5 BB%, 25.5K%, 113 wRC+

Selected as a defense-first catcher with some pop in the second round of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cozart had above-average offensive seasons at both High-A and Double-A in 2025.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Jogly Garcia, RHP (Age 22)
2025 (A): 8 G, 30.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 42.9 K%, 11.1 BB%, 1.04 WHIP
2025 (A+): 3 G, 8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 24.3 K%, 8.1 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Another international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Garcia exploded into relevance with a sensational start to the 2025 season before getting derailed by injury.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
w/ Mets 2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
w/ Mets 2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Petey Halpin, OF (Age 23)
2025 (AAA) 553 PA, .249/.321/.414, 14 HR, 15 SB, 9.2 BB%, 28.2 K%, 95 wRC+
2025 (MLB): 8 PA, .333/.500/.333, 0 HR, 0 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 157 wRC+

Earned a cup of coffee in Cleveland last season after an average year at Triple-A at age 23. Impressed with five runs scored in just six games played with the Guardians.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Andrew Walters, RHP (Age 25)
2025 (AAA): 12 G, 12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 46.0 K%, 18.0 BB%, 1.17 WHIP
2025 (MLB): 2 G, 1.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 9.89 FIP, 33.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Walters maintains his rookie status due to limited MLB appearances because of an injury in 2025. If he returns at 100%, he’ll once again be a factor in the back end of Cleveland’s vaunted bullpen.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF
14. Jace LaViolette, LHH OF
15. Joey Oakie, RHP
16. Alfonsin Rosario, RHH OF
17. Juneiker Caceres, LHH OF
18. Yorman Gomez, RHP
19. Josh Hartle, LHP

In Mariners news…

• ICYMI: The Mariners are sending 16 players to the 2026 World Baseball Classic, the most of any MLB team.
• Daniel Kramer at MLB.com details everything fans need to know about Spring Training this year.
• Shannon Drayer at Seattle Sports 710 AM ponders if the Mariners’ current roster is better now than last October.

Around the league…

• Outfielder MJ Melendez has agreed to a one-year/$1.5 million deal including $500,000 in incentives.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox are among multiple teams interested in Houston Astros infielder Isaac Paredes.
• Recently retired MLB veterans Clayton Kershaw, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Votto will join NBC Sports’ MLB coverage throughout the 2026 season.

Becca’s picks…

• Time to party like it’s 2014: The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions!!!

Pitchers and catchers report to camp tomorrow, and the Washington Nationals roster still feels painfully incomplete. Even for a team that does not have serious playoff aspirations, there are still holes that need to be filled. The team lacks veteran leaders and proven commodities. Hopefully new President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni can do something to fix that as the offseason winds down.

For his part, Toboni has acknowledged that the team needs more additions. In interviews from the past couple of weeks, Toboni said that the team is not set heading to West Palm Beach and that the team is actively looking for pitching help. However, no deals have materialized since then, besides waiver wire action. 

From two weeks ago, a compilation from 2 interviews that Paul Toboni gave:

"By no means do we feel we're set going into West Palm."

"We're actively looking in that [pitching] market, and I think there's a chance we can sign a player here in the next week or two. But we will… pic.twitter.com/OAE86MOtge

— Talk Nats (@TalkNats) February 5, 2026

Hopefully Toboni sticks to his word because he is right that the team is not complete. In fact, they are far from it. The Nats have as many holes as Swiss Cheese right now. There are question marks at first base, DH, the rotation and in the bullpen. You can have internal competitions at some of those spots, but it would be unsettling to do it at all of those positions.

The Nats are not going to be a good team this year, but fans still want to see a respectable product on the field. Right now, it does not seem like there is a serious effort to do that. The only free agent signing Paul Toboni has made is the $5.5 million addition of Foster Griffin, who has spent the last three years in Japan. 

The Nats have not signed a player to a big league contract that actually played in the big leagues last year. Even in a rebuilding year, that is unacceptable. It is something Toboni needs to fix, for the sake of the fans if nothing else.

Most of the high profile free agents are off the board, but that is okay because the Nats were never fishing in that pool. However, there are still some solid free agents available that could be in the Nats price range. Some names to watch could be Rhys Hoskins and former Nats draft pick Lucas Giolito.

Now only eight of the @TheAthleticMLB's top 50 free agents remain unsigned, including none of the top 20.

21. Zac Gallen
30. Lucas Giolito
31. Chris Bassitt
37. Zack Littell
38. Marcell Ozuna
41. Max Scherzer
43. Rhys Hoskins
50. Michael Kopechhttps://t.co/a6wfQyi7RK

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) February 6, 2026

The Nats need reliability at first base and in the rotation. Giolito and Hoskins are veteran presences who can provide that. While the underlying numbers suggest Giolito’s 3.41 ERA from last year is not sustainable, he should still be able to provide league average production which the Nats desperately need in their rotation.

Other starters they could turn to for that include Nick Martinez, Chris Bassitt and Zack Littell. Zac Gallen is also on the market, but Toboni is likely to stay away from him due to his price tag and the qualifying offer attached to him. Toboni does not seem like he is in the business of giving away draft picks.

Another area that could use a boost is the bullpen. The Nats had the worst bullpen in all of baseball last year and it got worse on paper over the offseason. Toboni traded away Jose A. Ferrer, the Nats most promising reliever. It was a deal I liked, but it still weakens the bullpen. The Nats are projected to have the worst bullpen in baseball again in 2026.

Fangraphs RP DC Rankings (Bottom 5)
26th: Athletics (1.3 fWAR)
27th: DBacks (1.2 fWAR)
28th: Rockies (1.1 fWAR)
29th: Giants (1.1 fWAR)
30th: Nats (0.4 fWAR)😬😬😬
Bullpens shouldn’t be the main focus of a rebuilding team, but they cannot go into 2026 without any new additions https://t.co/9TP84FDuFK

— Paul Cubbage (@PaulCubbage23) February 2, 2026

The free agent options are slim, but there are still some names available. Michael Kopech could be an interesting flier to take. He has injury issues, but also possesses huge upside. If the Nats wanted a safer option, veteran lefties Danny Coulombe or Jalen Beeks could be options. 

I am not expecting any massive additions, but are a couple stabilizing additions too much to ask for? With this pitching staff, the Nats are really running the risk of bottoming out and losing 100+ games. Even in a rebuild, that is not something you want to do, especially with a draft lottery in place. 

A few veterans would help the young guys develop and keep the fans engaged. Speaking of the fans, how about an addition of Max Scherzer? I know that would fire me up and he would be such a great leader for this young team. Both the Nats and Scherzer have reasons to not be interested in each other, but it would be a ton of fun.

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow and the Nats roster just feels so unfinished. Can you really roll out there with this rotation, Abimelec Ortiz or Matt Mervis at first base, and this no name bullpen? It just feels like you would be asking for trouble. I guess we are going to find out based on what Paul Toboni does in the coming days and weeks.