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This morning, the great folks at Baseball America released an updated top 10 list of Washington Nationals prospects. I really respect the work that BA does, so this list holds a lot of weight to me. While most of the list consisted of familiar names, there were a couple surprises as well.

As you can see, Eli Willits was ranked as the Nats number one prospect, and his tool grades are very impressive. His hitting ability and speed are considered elite tools. Meanwhile, his fielding and arm are above average while his power is seen as average. Willits is a well-rounded player, who also has standout tools.

In the writeup, BA said that his pure bat to ball skills were merely above average instead of elite. However, his plate discipline is so good that it helps boost his hit tool. We saw that in his first full professional season, where Willits walked at a 17.7% clip. Power has always been seen as his weakest tool, but even that was better than expected in 2026.

The 18 year old hit 14 homers, 27 doubles and 8 triples in 114 games this year. Willits posted a 100.4 MPH 90th percentile EV, which is below average, but some of the other numbers are more encouraging. His average exit velocity was 89.2 MPH, which is actually slightly above big league average. Meanwhile, his max exit velocity was over 110 MPH, which is very good for an 18 year old. Power will never be the best part of his game, but this season Willits showed he has plenty of juice.

At the end of his writeup, BA said that Willits is tracking like an All-Star shortstop who could lead the league in stolen bases and runs. With 62 steals on the season, Willits’ base running ability is elite. When I saw him in person, that aggression on the basepaths was one of my main takeaways.

We already know a lot about Eli Willits though. He was the number one overall pick in the draft and is a player Nats fans have been following. However, Samil Serrano is a teenaged prospect fans might not be as aware of. The biggest surprise of this BA list is that Serrano was ranked as the Nats 5th best prospect. He was ahead of bigger names such as Devin Fitz-Gerald and Chris Hacopian.

Serrano is a very young player, having just turned 18 a few days ago. He was the Nats biggest international signing this past year, inking a deal with $1.97 million. His stock only rose in the Dominican Summer League this year. He put up great surface level numbers, but his underlying data was even better.

In 48 DSL games, Serrano hit .310 with a .968 OPS and became a DSL All-Star. Impressively, Serrano walked more than he struck out this season. He might be the best pure hitter to come from the Nats international ranks since Juan Soto. The only competition would be Luis Garcia Jr., but Serrano has better plate discipline and power at this stage.

There was one stat in Baseball America’s writeup that made me pop up in my seat. Serrano ranked in the 90th percentile of DSL hitters in contact rate, chase rate and 90th percentile exit velocity. The only other player to meet that criteria in the statcast era is Jesus Made, who is now the best prospect in baseball. 

We still need to see how he does when he arrives in the US this year, but it is easy to see why BA is so bullish on him. Even at this early stage, it is clear to see that he is a special offensive talent. Serrano has the ability to hit for average and power. While he is not some exceptional athlete, his hitting ability is good enough to carry his profile.

On the defensive side of the ball, Serrano plays center field right now. He is seen as having good instincts in the outfield, but average speed means he is likely to be a corner outfielder. However, he has enough athleticism and arm strength to be a good defender in right field.

The Nats have not had a lot of great international prospects in recent years, but Serrano is one. His stateside debut is something I will be watching very closely. He will probably start the season in rookie ball, but do not be surprised if he is with the Fred-Nats and putting up solid numbers in the summer.

This is the type of prospect who could rise on to top 100 lists before too long. On MLB Pipeline’s rankings, he is the Nats 16th best prospect, but I assume he will rise when that is updated. 

Putting Serrano in the top 5 is an aggressive ranking from BA. There are safer prospects who have a much longer track record that are behind him in the rankings. However, this boldness shows just how high the industry is on Serrano. By this time next year, we could be saying some things about Serrano that sound outlandish right now.

Baseball America is behind a paywall, so I do not want to spoil the entire list. They do great work though and if you are passionate about prospects, I would highly recommend subscribing to them. This list was fascinating. It made me even higher on Willits and made me think about Samil Serrano in a different light.

Maybe the best moment of the 2026 season was Joe Musgrove’s return to the San Diego Padres. He spent two seasons away from the sport rehabilitating his right elbow after Tommy John surgery. Musgrove re-entered at the most important time, pitching in the postseason.

Unfortunately, there was no storybook ending because the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs in the division round. But his season debut was well worth the wait. 

From hometown to the big leagues

His bullpen entrance re-energized Petco Park. The Friar Faithful gave the hometown boy a resounding hero’s welcome. The love affair began when Musgrove came home to play for his childhood team.

He cemented his place in the hearts of the Friar Faithful on April 9, 2021, throwing the franchise’s first-ever no-hitter in just his second start with the Padres. But he elevated his legendary status the following year, delivering a dominant road performance to eliminate the New York Mets in the Wild Card round.

His season debut was a night Musgrove once feared might never come. Other starting pitchers have come back to pitch effectively after Tommy John surgery. However, his rehab struggles were alarming. Every time Musgrove’s return to the mound appeared imminent, an unexpected injury pushed back his return date. 

The physical setbacks were the darkest days of his rehab. 

Rehab setbacks clouded Musgrove’s recovery

The rehab program was one step at a time; sometimes, Musgrove needed to go backward to move forward. For him, the biggest challenge was staying patient and allowing his elbow to heal because the right-hander was tired of sitting on the sidelines.

If you have ever been sidelined with a sports injury, your return to the sport is replayed endlessly in your mind throughout rehab. Rarely do expectations align with reality. 

Musgrove’s road to recovery was a grueling two-year process. It was bumpy with a few detours, but he kept his emotions in check when speaking with the press after every rehabilitation setback. It is hard to remain calm when your career is hanging in the balance.

Unsung hero: San Diego Padres

Hoping for a smooth debut, Padres manager Craig Stammen brought Musgrove in to start a clean inning rather than enter the game with runners on base. However, the appearance did not begin well; Musgrove gave up two hits and a walk before settling down to strike out two batters, preserving an 8-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the National League Wildcard Series. He came back to pitch two innings against the eventual World Series champions, the Milwaukee Brewers, in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. 

In that outing, Musgrove fanned two and hit a batter, which mirrors his style of pitching. The right-hander loves challenging hitters by throwing inside without hesitation.

Yes, Musgrove has some areas that need improvement, including becoming more consistent in repeating his delivery. This will allow him to execute his pitches better. Musgrove is looking forward to the challenge and expects to be better next season. 

The Friar Faithful embraced his return, and the night could not have gone better.

Musgrove’s return to the roster was a proud moment for all.

Padres News:

• He gave the Padres more than what many expected, so what grade did Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball give reliever Yuki Matsui?

• Pitcher Francis Pena is impressing in the Arizona Fall League and is sending a message to the San Diego organization that he wants an opportunity to join the big league club.

• Alex McCoy will compete in the AFL All-Star Game.

• Prospects Jagger Haynes and Tirso Ornelas are a couple of the biggest names leaving the Padres’ organization.

Baseball News:

• Here is a list of free agents who improved their earning potential with their play in 2026.

• According to reports, the Baltimore Orioles are open for business and will listen to offers on Gunnar Henderson.

• This is what teams can expect from Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato when he comes to MLB.

• Albert Pujols is set to get another managerial interview, this time with the Houston Astros.

Major League Baseball on Wednesday announced rosters for the Fall Stars Game, with two Dodgers and the possibility of more for the All-Star Game for the Arizona Fall League.

Third baseman Chase Harlan and pitcher Luke Fox were named to the National League roster for the Fall Stars Game, which will be played on Sunday night at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, a 5 p.m. PT game that will be carried by MLB Network.

There is also a final vote, in which fans will be able to select one more player for both the National League and American League teams. The three choices for the final NL roster spot includes Dodgers prospects Eduardo Quintero and Charles Davalan, plus San Diego Padres infielder Justin DeCriscio. Voting runs on MLB.com through Friday at 5 p.m. PT.

You might recognize most of these names from the Baseball Prospectus top Dodgers prospect list, which was unveiled on Wednesday. Quintero is ranked the third-best prospect in the system, Davalan is seventh, and Harlan is eighth.

Harlan is hitting .276/.403/.586 with 17 RBI in 16 games for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the AFL, with five home runs, two of them coming since the calendar flipped to November. Fox has a 4.09 ERA in five appearances and 11 innings in the AFL, with 14 strikeouts (28.6-percent strikeout rate) and four walks, and no home runs allowed.

Harlan and Quintero did not play on Wednesday for Glendale, but Davalan did, continuing to log innings at second base as the outfielder tries to add to his toolbox. Davalan walked on Wednesday but was otherwise hitless in three at-bats.

Davalan on Wednesday was one of 10 hitting prospects from the Arizona Fall League analyzed by Ian Cundall at Baseball America, specifically with his move to second base in the circuit.

“He has made most of the routine plays, but his lack of range was noticeable, and his reads off the bat were a step slow,” Cundall wrote. “It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers continue to pursue this route with him heading into 2027, as it could slow down his ascension to the big leagues. With his offensive potential, however, it would maximize his value if he can develop into at least a playable second baseman in a part-time role.”

Wednesday scores

Surprise 2, Glendale 0

Thursday schedule

12:30 p.m. PT: Glendale vs. Mesa

AFL live streams

Earlier this week, MLB officially announced the finalists for the major end of season awards. The Phillies have some representation despite the disappointing end to their season, as Cristopher Sánchez, Don Mattingly, and Jhoan Duran all are among the nominees. Here’s the full layout of who is a finalist for what award:

NL MVP

• Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

AL MVP

• Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

NL Cy Young Award

• Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
• Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
• Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

AL Cy Young Award

• Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
• Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
• Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

NL Manager of the Year

• Don Mattingly, Philadelphia Phillies
• Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
• Walt Weiss, Atlanta Braves

AL Manager of the Year

• Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
• Chad Tracy, Boston Red Sox
• Will Venable, Chicago White Sox

NL Rookie of the Year

• Carson Benge, New York Mets
• Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds
• JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals

AL Rookie of the Year

• Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers
• Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
• Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

NL Reliever of the Year

• Jhoan Duran, Philadelphia Phillies
• Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers
• Mason Miller, San Diego Padres

AL Reliever of the Year

• Bryan Baker, Tampa Bay Rays
• Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians
• Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays

So, what are your predictions for the winners? Will the Phillies bring home any individual awards?

May 21, 2022. That’s the day that was supposed to forever change the course of the Orioles’ franchise.

It was the day that Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ wunderkind catcher, made his major league debut. The 24-year-old received a raucous standing ovation from the Camden Yards crowd as he took the field, and few could forget the indelible image of Rutschman doing a 360 to soak in the atmosphere before donning his mask, giving a slight nod as if to say, “Yeah, I belong here.”

Rutschman brought the kind of pedigree that few O’s rookies could ever match. He was a former #1 draft pick, only the second in Orioles history, and was the top-ranked prospect in baseball as he destroyed minor league pitching all the way up the ladder. In an O’s minor league system that had been replenished with young talent since the hiring of Mike Elias in 2018, Rutschman was the leader of the pack, the franchise cornerstone who would usher in an era of perennially contending Orioles teams. The future of Baltimore baseball was incredibly bright.

Now look at us. Four years later, the Orioles still haven’t won a postseason game in the Elias era. And Rutschman, the linchpin of the Birds’ expected renaissance, is gone, traded away to a division rival while he was on the injured list. All that’s left in Birdland is a big old mess.

It’s safe to say that the Adley Rutschman Experience in Baltimore didn’t turn out as anyone expected. Which is not to say he was a bust. In fact, the first three years of his career could hardly have been more successful in terms of his on-field production. Adley racked up 12.9 bWAR from 2022-24, the third-most in Orioles history for a player in his first three seasons (behind Gunnar Henderson’s 15.8 and Nick Markakis’ 14.0). Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, and collected a Silver Slugger award, two All-Star selections, and two top-12 AL MVP finishes in that three-year span.

You could make a legitimate case that Adley was the best catcher in baseball at the time, or at least the one with the brightest career in front of him. And his arrival did, indeed, usher in an era of homegrown O’s prospects who brought postseason baseball back to Baltimore for two years, including a 103-win season and an AL East crown in 2023. But in both seasons, the Birds were swept out of the postseason.

As Orioles fans are all too painfully aware, though, Rutschman’s career — and the Orioles’ fortunes — took a nosedive starting in mid-2024. From June 22 to the end of the season, Rutschman batted a horrendous .192 with a .574 OPS in 77 games as the O’s limped into the playoffs. A prevailing theory among O’s fans is that Adley was battling a secret injury during that time, though Rutschman never admitted as much. Distressingly, his 2025 was even worse: oblique strains in both his legs landed him on the IL twice, and in 90 games he batted just .220/.307/.366 with nine home runs, a major reason why the Orioles collapsed to a last-place finish.

Rutschman entered the 2026 season with something to prove. A few things, actually. He needed to prove he could still hit like the Adley of 2022-23. He needed to prove he was still the Orioles’ go-to catcher even after the O’s committed an eight-year contract to Samuel Basallo in 2025. And he needed to prove he could still be the bedrock of the Birds’ return to contention.

Rutschman was unsuccessful on the last of those points and only somewhat so on the other two. He played the lion’s share behind the plate while he was on the team, starting 49 of the Orioles’ first 98 games. And his bat was the best it’s been in three years. He posted a 116 OPS+ for the Birds, batting .251 with a .764 OPS, sparking gleeful cries of “Adley is so back!” from O’s fans who’d been long awaiting his return to form. His defense, too, was vastly improved over the past couple of years, particularly when throwing out basestealers. Rutschman’s 33.9 CS% was the best mark of his career and far outpaced the MLB average of 22.7. He led all AL catchers with 21 caught stealings.

Adley’s early-season heroics earned him his third career All-Star selection, serving as the Orioles’ lone representative at the Midsummer Classic in Philadelphia on July 14. It turned out to be his third-to-last game in an O’s uniform. During the Birds’ series in Houston to start the second half, Rutschman suffered left wrist inflammation that landed him on the 10-day IL — and, though we didn’t know it at the time, wrapped up his Orioles career.

As the O’s continued to wallow in mediocrity at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Rutschman’s name was bandied about as a trade candidate. Logically it made sense, due to the Orioles’ commitment to Basallo and Adley’s 1.5 years until free agency, but still it came as a shock to much of Birdland when Elias actually pulled the trigger on a deal. Especially shocking is that the O’s traded him to division rival Boston, of all places, for Carlos Narváez and four prospects.

And just like that, it was over. Adley Rutschman, the one-time face of the franchise, was unceremoniously jettisoned by the Birds while on the injured list, leaving so much unfinished business with the team he was supposed to lead to the promised land. He’ll always be remembered fondly by most O’s fans, and his up-and-down five-year Orioles career brought more highlights than lowlights. Ultimately, though, Adley Rutschman never quite lived up to the inordinate hype that accompanied him. And the Orioles’ early success after his arrival in the majors didn’t last.

The return package for Rutschman, which featured top Red Sox pitching prospect Anthony Eyanson and several other highly-regarded youngsters, was widely praised. Still, to see a much-ballyhooed #1 draft pick come and go from Baltimore without the O’s ever winning even one playoff game is a rather damning indictment of Elias’s vision for the organization, and if I were the owner of the team he’d have gotten his pink slip some time ago. But David Rubenstein doesn’t see it that way, and so Elias remains, albeit with a heavily restructured front office. Perhaps someday the Orioles will finally find that cornerstone player who can return to the franchise to championship glory.

As for Rutschman, he’s surely got more years ahead of him to torment the Orioles, as he did in his return to Camden Yards with the Red Sox on Sept. 3 when he smacked two home runs to beat the Birds. He’ll be under contract with Boston for 2027 before reaching free agency at age 30, and I’ll be fascinated to see what kind of contract he gets. How much will teams be willing to pay for an aging catcher whose offense has fluctuated wildly from year to year?

It’s strange to think that the Orioles will open the 2027 season without Rutschman behind the plate for the first time in five years. And it’s frustrating that his tenure with the Birds didn’t pan out like we’d dreamed of. But thanks for the memories all the same, Adley.

Well, Tim Hyers has survived another season presiding over a not-particularly-good Atlanta Braves offense.

His predecessor more or less fired himself. (Or resigned, I guess, you could say.) Other coaching staff turnovers often happen when a team brings on a new manager, but that already happened and Hyers was the one holdover.

So, what will it take? A third not-particularly-inspiring offensive season? A teamwide collapse that takes Walt Weiss and his coaching staff down?

Maybe the answer, the only answer, is “Tim Hyers resigns like Kevin Seitzer did.”

Maybe the Braves are just waiting for the bottom to drop out of the aggregate. Across 2025-2026, the team is still ninth in xwOBA, though they’re 15th in wOBA / 16th in wRC+ due to underhitting their inputs a bit. (The park effect probably isn’t a particularly big deal for two-year teamwide input ranks.) They’re also just inside the top ten across those two years in runs, and nearly dead average in walk and strikeout rates.

I think the issue is the feeling of, “The Braves are fine-ish, but not as good as they could be.” So, I guess things have to get not-fine for there to be a change. If you look at the arc of team batting stats over the past two years combined, it feels amoeba-y in terms of still ranking towards the top in various metrics a la exit velocity, but no longer at pretty much the apex of MLB in all of them.

Anyway, now that the Braves have apparently opted to retain Hyers despite a middling offensive performance in 2026, it’s just interesting to think about what marker would need to change substantially for them to not do so in the future.

Meet the Mets

According to Will Sammon of The Athleticthe Mets are adding former catcher A.J. Ellis to their major league coaching staff as a strategy coordinator.

The Mets have other options for the rotation should they miss out on Tarik Skubal.

The Skubal sweepstakes isn’t the only challenge facing David Stearns when it comes to next year’s rotation.

Around the National League East

The Braves are bringing back their entire coaching staff for the 2027 season.

The Marlins could be one of the teams interested in signing Cubs starter Shota Imanaga this offseason.

There are plenty of options for the Phillies to improve their roster but unfortunately for them the options won’t come cheap.

The Nationals released righty Zak Kent.

Around Major League Baseball

Albert Pujols will reportedly interview for the vacant managerial position in Houston.

Defense attorneys for Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz argued that the two pitchers were victims during their opening statements of the pair’s pitch-rigging trial.

The Athletics hired Brewers’ senior vice president of player development and performance Cam Castro as their new general manager.

The Orioles are reportedly open to trading everyone not named Pete Alonso this offseason.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggled at the plate last season but he could make a few adjustments to recapture the power that alluded him in 2026.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Steve Sypa profiled international free agent Kaima Taira.

Micah Noe discussed A.J Ellis joining the coaching staff.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1990, Darryl Strawberry left New York and signed a five-year deal with the Dodgers.

Recently, there have been reports that the Baltimore Orioles are open to trading just about anyone on their roster with the exception of Pete Alonso. Which is kind of a weird player to say you’re not trading, but realize it has a lot to do with the contract. They wouldn’t get much for him. Specifically mentioned in fact was that Gunnar Henderson is on the table. He’s not on the block, but if they are blown away, they will trade him. But the title of this post does not mention Gunnar Henderson, because he is not the only potential 3B on the Orioles the Cardinals could trade for. I’ll look at every possible option.

Gunnar Henderson

Steamer projects Henderson for 4.8 WAR in 632 PAs, which seems fair to me. Last season was a down season at just 3.6 fWAR, but before that was a 4.8 fWAR season and a 7.6 fWAR season. He will be 26 next season. He is projected for a 125 wRC+. Despite not reaching that mark in the last two seasons, that is his career wRC+. Given his age, and I do feel slightly uncomfortable about doing this, I will project a slight decline in the second season, but not half a win like I normally do. So I will project his 2028 season at 4.5 WAR. He will be a free agent after 2028, so that means the Cardinals will be trading for 9.3 WAR.

What is his salary? MLB Trade Rumors projects $14.1 million in 2027. That is a rock solid estimate. His 2028 season could more accurately be called a guess. An educated one, but a guess. Using the 25/40/62 method calculated by Point of Pittsburgh, that would make his 2028 salary $22 million. I don’t think it would realistically be much lower than that, and has a good chance to be higher. But the lower it is, the more value he holds in a trade, so we’re only hurting what the Cardinals have to give up if we have a low salary. 9.3 WAR for $36.1 million is $56.9 million. Let’s call it an even $60 million in trade value.

I will be using Fangraphs updated prospect valuations, released in the middle of this most recent season. Thank you to Ben Clemens and that group for doing so, because I had been relying on former VEB site manager Craig Edwards’s methods, which predated the pandemic. So now it’s not outdated thankfully.

So right off the bat, we’re giving up Liam Doyle in this trade. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a non-negotiable, but the other option is Rainiel Rodriguez. I am for sure going with the pitcher when faced with that choice. Good news: that’s over half the value in this trade! Other good news: the rest of the value we have to make up is not another top 100 prospect. Doyle is, according to the above article, worth $45 million in trade value.

Then I’ll pick the next most obvious player to include in this trade: if we’re getting a 3B for at least the next two years, it makes sense to trade what everyone assumes is the heir apparent to the position, Jesus Baez. I’m not exactly sure what to label Jesus Baez as far as future value goes. I don’t think he’s a 50 FV guy. I’m not sure if he’s 45+ or 45. It almost doesn’t matter, because 45 is worth $14.5 million. That’s pretty much the trade.

Because we are such a good fit, overpaying for Henderson should be a lot easier than for most teams. Our overpaying will come in the form of a catcher, because their backup catcher had a 33 wRC+ last season – not a typo – and they really don’t have any noteworthy catching prospects. Cardinals need to trade their catchers anyway. This is easy. They can take either Pedro Pages or Jimmy Crooks. I would assume Crooks, because he has offensive potential. But they might prefer Pages’ defense and might prefer a great defender behind offense-first Samuel Basallo. Crooks has to be worth the equivalent of a 45 FV prospect, despite his underwhelming MLB performance. He will be 25 and had a fantastic season in AAA.

So this is, by the numbers, a pretty decent overpay. It doesn’t feel like it because Crooks feels like spare parts and the loss of Baez is easy to take when he doesn’t have anywhere to play, making it feel like Doyle is the only real loss. Imagine if Baez was a surefire SS and Masyn Winn didn’t exist, and the Cardinals had Pedro Pages and Jimmy Crooks and nobody else at catcher. This would feel like too much right? A function of how well these two teams match up is why it feels like a no brainer trade. This if course does not mean the Orioles accept this.

Jesus Baez, Jimmy Crooks, and Liam Doyle for Gunnar Henderson

Jordan Westburg

Oh man do I wish I had ZiPS for Westburg. Westburg missed the entire 2026 season to Tommy John surgery and no he is not a pitcher. I have no idea what to project him for. Steamer has him with 421 PAs, which would be generous in my mind. He missed last year, had 352 PAs in 2025, and 447 PAs in 2024. In those 421 PAs, they project a 116 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR. I would be shocked if ZiPS has this good of a projection personally.

Westburg is 27 though, and to make up for what I feel is an optimistic projection given his injury history, knocking off half a win should even things out. So while Steamer has a 1.8 WAR projection, I expect ZiPS to be lower, but more stable if that makes sense. By the way I’m not even low on Westburg, I’m just looking at his history and Steamer almost pretends he didn’t miss 2026. His projection makes sense if this was for the 2026 season. Anyway, that is 3.9 WAR across three seasons.

Again MLB Trade Rumors provides us with his salary next season. It’s only $1.5 million. Past this upcoming season, that number could vary wildly. Showing health, regardless of how the season goes would be a big deal. If he bounces back, I think his second arbitration season would be about $5 million and his third arbitration year would be worth $10 million. But this is highly variable based on his performance. That’s 3.9 WAR for $16.5 million in three seasons. That would be $22.5 million in trade value.

I have two proposals, one of them is reflected by Westburg being currently somewhat of an unknown due to injury. Come on down Brandon Clarke! I’m not sure if he’s a 45+ FV prospect or a 45 FV prospect at this point. If the Orioles consider him the former, I’m teaming him with… Jimmy Crooks again yes. If the Orioles aren’t interested in a catcher, a trade with them makes much less sense frankly.

Now, if Clarke’s status as a 45+ FV prospect have ended and he is in fact now a 45 FV, I’m switching the pitcher to Daniel Eagen. I feel fairly comfortable saying he’s 45+ FV. Pairing him with Crooks is too much value however. Let’s take advantage of that. Let’s improve the bullpen. 32-year-old Rico Garcia had a good season last year, and has an okay projection. That should roughly make up the difference. Garcia has four years of team control, but is also 32 and a reliever.

Brandon Clarke and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg

OR

Daniel Eagen and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg and Rico Garcia

Coby Mayo

I’m going to cheat on these last few guys. I can calculate prospects. I can calculate arb eligible guys where I have an idea of their future salary. But the pre-arb guys who aren’t really that established? No idea. If you did a strict WAR and then salary, you’d probably end up with more trade value than they actually had. Not to mention the difficult with projections past this season. So I’m going to use a site I’m not actually a big believer in, but they’ve done more research into this than I have, and I trust their number for pre-arb guys more than whatever number I can come up with. I’m using Baseball Trade Values.

Accordingly, Mayo has $15.7 million in trade value according to their site. Great. (If you want to compare it to the previous two guys, they think I way overstepped with just $46.8 million for Henderson, but I came pretty damn close to Westburg, who has $25.3 million)

The future value prospect numbers being really outdated is making this very inconvenient. Also, I’m learning I don’t want really want Mayo. I can’t come up with a pitcher I’m willing to part with. You know what? I got it. You guys won’t like it. I’m cashing my chips on Cooper Hjerpe in this trade. And then the second piece could be either Jimmy Crooks or Pedro Pages, depending on how much value Hjerpe actually has. In theory, Crooks is too much, but I could see Hjerpe not really having much value. Unless it’s Mayo for Crooks straight up, I don’t really want Mayo. If we have to give up anything but a blocked prospect, I’m passing.

Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages (or Jimmy Crooks) for Coby Mayo

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BTV is not a believer in this dude’s season. They value him at just $6.1 million. And to be fair, it is a grand total of 218 PAs following two absolutely dreadful seasons. And though he had a good OAA last season, the scouting for his defense is not positive and he’s been a below average 1B in his career, so to say I don’t trust that 3B defense would be an understatement. But it must be said he was quite good in a small sample (+3 in 411 innings). But all this does explain his low trade value.

I actually think I have a fair trade. CES is not necessarily the safest bet, so in response to that, I will give them a prospect that is not exactly the safest bet. Some of you will not like this. I’m sending Tekoah Roby in this trade. By Fangraphs, CES is worth roughly a 40+ FV pitching prospect. I think that describes Roby with his injury history. If you are not at all a believer in Roby’s health, this might be a good trade.

Tekoah Roby for Christian-Encarnacion Strand

Blaze Alexander

According to BTV, Alexander has $12.8 million in trade value. I’m going to be lazy and do a very similar trade. For Mayo, I suggested Hjerpe and either Crooks or Pages depending on how valuable Hjerpe was. Well, I’m going to do Hjerpe with Pages for this one. Alexander is worth less than Mayo by a few million, which more firmly puts him with what Hjerpe might be worth. Pages isn’t worth a whole lot, but is worth something. I think this is fair.

Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages for Blaze Alexander

Conclusion

The Cardinals and Orioles are great fits, but it is predicated a lot on the Orioles actually being interested in a catcher. They may very well be fine rolling with Basallo and the random backup of the year. That was the Cardinals strategy with Yadier Molina. If they don’t want a catcher, the fit is not quite as clean. There’s also a good argument to be made that there’s not a whole lot of point to making some of these trades if it’s not Henderson and maybe Westburg. But I don’t know why the Orioles would trade Westburg right now, after a missing season, at his lowest value.

Blaze Alexander’s profile is more suggestive of a bench player, which is why he’s already been traded once. Both CES and Mayo have rather significant swing-and-miss in their game. And neither is expected to be all that good defensively, despite CES’ positive numbers in 2026. We kind of already have the unproven version of these players in Blaze Jordan. So I could see the Cardinals being uninterested in giving up value to players who are still kind of unreliable with not a large sample of proven success. They are only marginally more proven than Jordan. I kind of want Westburg, but again if I’m the Orioles, there’s no way I’m trading him after a lost season.

Book Corner

I mentioned I was reading a short book and a long book at the moment. The short book I’m reading is Playing Hard Ball: A Kent County Cricketeer’s Journey into Big League Baseball. The title is almost longer than the book. The author is credited as E.T. Smith, but it’s Ed Smith if you google him. Not real sure why his author name is E.T. when he’s not exactly hiding his identity. I do not remember why I got this book or when I got it, but it very well could have been on the recommendation of a VEB commentator honestly.

This was interesting, but I don’t really think I was the audience for this weirdly. This book feels made for cricket fans more than baseball fans honestly. I didn’t understand anything he was talking about whenever he was talking about cricket. And he would get into detail on specific matches, and I may as well have been attempting to read French.

And the blurbs on the back of the book suggest I am probably right about that. Not what they say, but their source: Sunday Telegraph, Daily Mail, Wisden Cricket Monthly, Daily Telegraph, and The Cricketer. I do believe these are all based in England. It was released in 2002 and he became a Mets fan, so it references the Subway series, 9/11, and the Yankees dominance.

You don’t have to be a cricket fan to like this book, but it probably helped if you were a Mets or Yankees fan or if I actually read this back in 2002, because this is pre-Moneyball, so it’s not like the baseball analysis or stats used are the greatest, not that I would expect them to be. The author clearly fell in love with baseball though and that does come across. He references Ball Four a few times, Ted Williams, has an extended section comparing Babe Ruth to the Babe Ruth of cricket, Sir Donald Bradman.

But whenever he started talking about cricket, I just could not follow what he was talking about. At all. I think you need a rudimentary understanding of cricket for this book. He tries to go through the basics of baseball to help non-baseball readers understand and either this book was really not meant for Americans and he just assumed you knew cricket or he is too ingrained in the game of cricket to realize that he didn’t do all that good a job of describing cricket to non-cricket fans.

Anyway, definitely interesting for time and place, seeing a skeptical cricket fan fall in love with baseball, and a newcomer’s perspective on baseball as a sport. I do think this was written to an audience of people who are not baseball fans more than people who are baseball fans though.

MLB free agency is underway, though you wouldn’t know it by the (lack of) moves being made. It figures to be a month-long period before it goes on holiday while the owners and players bicker and negotiate and draw up a new CBA, and then free agency will return.

It’s a rather uninspiring free agent class this year. Lefty ace Tarik Skubal figures to make about as much money as Elon Musk spent funding losing campaigns this year, but after that? There’s a chance that no one else clears nine figures. But there are some former Giants out there, and while most of them are likely not on the team’s radar for a potential reunion, it’s still fun keeping tabs on them.

So let’s look at where the former Giants rank on two top-50 free agent lists: Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens, and ESPN’s Kile McDaniel.

Second baseman Luis Arráez, who was an All-Star for the Giants in his lone season with the team this year, before being traded for a very nice haul at the deadline, is the highest-ranked former Giant, as he comes in at No. 11 on Clemens’ list and No. 12 on McDaniel’s. Unfortunately for Arráez, his performance really slowed down after the trade, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in nearly 200 plate appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies, after having a 121 mark in more than 450 plate appearances with the Giants. This seems to have hurt his standing around the league, with Fangraphs projecting him for a two-year, $38-million deal, and ESPN for a three-year, $54-million contract.

Next up are a pair of righties: Kevin Gausman and Tyler Mahle. They’re back-to-back on the respective lists, albeit in different orders: Gausman is No. 15 to Mahle’s No. 16 on ESPN’s list, while Fangraphs is a little less amped, with Mahle at No. 26 and Gausman No. 27.

The two publications differ quite a bit on their expectations for Gausman, who is coming off his worst ERA since 2019, though his FIP was still quite solid. Fangraphs thinks Gausman will get a modest one-year, $17-million deal, while ESPN pegs him for three years and $51 million. I’d be pretty happy with the Giants do either of those deals.

While it’s easy to see the Giants targeting Gausman this offseason, they almost certainly won’t be going after Mahle, who struggled mightily on a one-year prove-it deal with San Francisco this year, before taking off after being traded to the Atlanta Braves (who promptly changed his pitch mix). That performance in Atlanta likely earned him a lot of money this winter, and Fangraphs thinks he’ll get paid $30 million over two years, while ESPN projects $49.5 million over three years.

Utility player Mauricio Dubón figures to have his pick from a lot of interested teams, given his defensive brilliance and versatility, and quality bat. It’s hard to imagine a reunion given that the Giants don’t have a pressing need at any one position, and he didn’t exactly depart on the best terms (though it seems his issues were solely with Gabe Kapler). McDaniel, who ranks Dubón as the No. 34 free agent around, projects two years and $16 million for Dubón, while Clemens ranks him No. 45, with a predicted contract of $8 million for one season.

Pitcher Matthew Boyd also made both lists (No. 48 at Fangraphs, projected for one year and $9 million; No. 50 at ESPN, projected for one year and $10 million), if you want to consider him a former Giant.

And those are the former Giants on the top free agents lists, though there are certainly plenty of other former Giants available on the market, including Robbie Ray, Steven Okert, Taylor Rogers, Joc Pederson, Jakob Junis, and Michael Conforto.

I think it is fair to say that the Yankee fanbase (and perhaps the club itself, deep in its heart of hearts) had a certain level of trepidation to go along with excitement as Gerrit Cole’s return from Tommy John surgery approached last season. At what level was Cole going to be able to perform? He was no spring chicken anymore.

Then he stormed out of the gate with 12.2 scoreless innings in his first two starts and all was right with the universe again. Obviously, Cole was never going to pitch to a 0.00 ERA all year. But he averaged a hair under six innings per start for the remainder of the season and provided a much-needed lift to a Yankee rotation that was hit hard by injury to multiple starters.

Grade: B+

2026 Statistics: 22 GS, 10-9, 3.61 ERA (118 ERA+), 127 IP, 131 K, 1.20 WHIP, 25.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 1.56 HR/9, 2.1 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR

2027 Contract Status: Under contract for $36 million

It was actually the second of Cole’s starts that really signaled to everyone that he was back. Facing Kansas City, the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner scattered four hits over 6.2 shoutout innings, issuing nary a free pass and whiffing 10 Royals hitters.

Avoiding the walk ended up being a major theme for Cole. His 1.77 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career and bested his previous highwater mark as a Yankee by .26 BB/9. “Earn your way on” might as well have been the unofficial motto for Cole in 2026.

Unfortunately, his next start highlighted what ended up being Cole’s marquee bugaboo last season. At Yankee Stadium, Cleveland did not play GuardsBall against him. Cole surrendered three long balls in 5.1 frames and that ended up being an all-too-frequent occurrence.

The 1.56 HR/9 Cole allowed was the second-highest mark of his career, surpassed only by the COVID-truncated 2020 campaign. And it was not just home runs. When opposing hitters made contact off Cole this season, they made loud contact.

A quick glance at Cole’s Statcast contact metrics is both illustrative and horrifying. Average exit velocity (4th percentile). Barrel rate (22nd percentile). Hard-hit rate (4th percentile). A veritable house of horrors. Oh, and hitters weren’t clubbing those pitches into the ground. Cole’s ground-ball rate was in the ninth percentile. Getting hit hard in the air seems like a formula to give up a lot of long balls.

Luckily, Cole was still adept at missing bats. Although he’s no longer going to rack up 300+ strikeouts in a season as he did in Houston, Cole can still send opposing hitters back to the pine. His 70th-percentile strikeout rate was comfortably among baseball’s best. If you’re striking guys out and refusing to walk them, a lot of those aforementioned dingers should be of the solo variety.

The result, warts and all, was Cole performing like a top-of-the rotation starter in his return from injury. And for a team that features the presumptive 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler and lefty standout Max Fried, that’s all Cole needs to be moving forward … until the playoffs. Then he needs to throw eight shutout innings every start, for my mental health.

Cole has two seasons left on the contract he signed when Brian Cashman finally landed his “white whale.” Perhaps one of the biggest upsides to Cole’s 2026 is that it inspires optimism that Cole can be, at worst, a No. 3 starter in a rotation for what should be a serious contender over the next couple of years. And then we can deal with his free agency when we get there.

It’s also fascinating to think what those next couple of years could look like for Cole’s legacy. He finally notched the personal hardware he was missing when he won the Cy Young. He’s still bereft of a championship though. One (or more, let’s go back-to-back in 2027 and 2028) of those would really burnish his Cooperstown credentials.

Cole currently sits at 163 career wins. The two men ahead of him are either already retired (Justin Verlander) or likely soon to be (Max Scherzer). The closest hurler to him (Chris Sale) is two years older with an extra season worth of innings on his elbow. The nearest player to Cole who is younger than him (Michael Wacha) is one year younger and trails by 43 wins. On the right side of 30? The 29-year-old Logan Webb has 78 career wins.

With Verlander’s retirement, there are no potential 300-game winners in baseball’s short-to-medium term. Once Scherzer hangs up his spurs, there is a non-zero chance that Cole—if he can get there—could be baseball’s last 200-game winner for the foreseeable future.

That’s all in the future though. For 2027, I’d sign up in a heartbeat if Cole could replicate what he did in 2026 over a full season. The back of the napkin math for me suggests that would be roughly four-win season with innings and strikeout counts around 180-190 each. From my No. 3 starter. Yes, please.

As an aside, I’m just personally glad to have him back. Even an older Cole shows glimpses of the brilliance that made his so incandescent at his peak. Spring training can’t get here soon enough.

See more of the Yankees Roster Report Card series here.

This past season, second baseman Michael Massey finally showed what he can truly do as a Royal.

Michael Massey entered this past Spring Training fighting for a spot on the Royals’ roster after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign, with the possibility of splitting time between second base and left field.

But even with his role uncertain, Massey had made one goal clear: He wanted to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender.

Eight months later, the 28-year-old is coming off one of his strongest Major League seasons to date. His turnaround, which included improved offensive numbers and an American League Gold Glove finalist selection, has given the Royals a different outlook at second base heading into 2027.

In case you missed it, Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP finalist again.

Angeibel Gomez keeps receiving recognition.

As the second-youngest player ever to appear in the AFL, the 17-year-old outfielder has held his own nicely in the jump from the Dominican Summer League with a .306/.390/.444 line over 10 games for Surprise. Gomez has true five-tool potential and has seen time at all three outfield spots this fall, though the bulk of his time has come in right.

Zion Rose and Justin Lamkin also were talked about in the article above.

Where does Carter Jensen rank on long-term value for 2026 rookies?

Brian Burrows of Kings of Kauffman ponders what it would take for the Royals to get Elly De La Cruz.

Former Royal Franmil Reyes has been balling.

Could the Royals make a go at Drew Rasmussen?

Sam Caulder of Royals Keep gives three bullpen arms the Royals could target.

A list of ten free agents who boosted their stock in 2026.

A couple interesting names interviewed for the Astros managerial job.

Jason Kanzler had an interesting path to becoming the Mariners new manager.

Here is your song of the day: That’s the Way Love Is by Marvin Gaye