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Elian Peña

Week: 6 G, 21 AB, .286/.400/.762, 6 H, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1/3 SB (High-A)

2026 Season: 96 G, 365, .271/.388/.397, 99 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 61 BB, 94 K, 28/37 SB, .343 BABIP (Single-A)

Back at the beginning of August, when we rolled out the prospect report card for July, I mentioned that I was starting to get a little worried about how passive Elian Peña had become. Now, don’t get me wrong, his 105 wRC+ until that point was great for an 18-year-old in his first go-around in full-season ball in his first year in the United States, but the overall profile left a bit to be desired. Yes, he was walking at an excellent 14% rate, but he was also striking out at a 19.7% rate with lower-than-average Swing%, lower-than-average SwStr%, and higher-than-average CStr%; in other words, it seemed to me based on those stats that Peña was taking a lot of pitches, balls or strikes, and that his slightly above-average offensive contributions weren’t thanks to a preternaturally good eye for a teenager, but rather, passivity at the plate. As highlighted by the concept of SEAGER, there is a difference between good aggression, bad aggression, good passivity, and bad passivity.

One of the things I wanted to see more from Peña going forward was his ability to do damage, even if it resulted in his swing-and-miss rates going up, and related stats like batting average or on-base percentage going down. Peña has done that and then some since the calendar flipped to August. Through 12 games in the month, he is hitting .333/.423/.622 with 4 doubles, 3 home runs, and 7 walks to 18 strikeouts, with one of those doubles and all three of those home runs coming this past week.

Peña’s entire professional resume consists of what he’s done this year and 55 games in the Dominican Summer League last year, so it is pretty light all things considered. With that in mind, he has always shown a solid eye, fair pitch recognition, and demonstrated relatively positive swing decisions at the plate. I don’t want to see Peña change that and become a wild hacker swinging at everything because statistically he is bound to run into a ball here and there, but in order to develop into an effective major leaguer, he will need to hit the ball with more authority. Edgardo Alfonzo was a career .284 hitter who got on base at a career .357 rate. Mike Schmidt was a career .267 hitter who got on base at a career .380 rate. Edgardo Alfonzo is a fan favorite while Mike Schmidt is considered one of the best third basemen ever because he also slugged .527 and had a career 147 wRC+ to Alfonzo’s .425 career slugging percentage and 107 wRC+.

Now that he has been promoted to Brooklyn, it will be an interesting final couple of months for the left-hand hitting shortstop. Since Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park opened, it has been a favorable pitcher’s park in general, with flyballs, home runs and left-handed hitters impacted the most by the stadium. As per MLB Rule 2.01, the sight line from home plate to the pitcher’s mound to second base to center field should point due east to avoid the setting sun impacting at-bats. Facing east on Surf Avenue, well, it doesn’t really get more east. The Atlantic Ocean being about 400 feet from center/right field without much obstruction has impacted countless Cyclones home games, with winds swatting down fly balls. Peña has had his most success when pulling and elevating the ball, and his angular bat path is optimized for doing just that.

May the best force win.

Jose Chirinos

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (High-A)

2026 Season: 9 G (7 GS), 42.0 IP, 34 H, 16 R, 11 ER (2.36 ERA), 10 BB, 48 K, .295 BABIP (Single-A) / 12 G (12 GS), 59.1 IP, 54 H, 30 R, 27 ER (4.10 ERA), 27 BB, 61 K, .299 BABIP (High-A)

Brooklyn, which has park favors that skew heavily in the favor of pitching, often has a habit of making pitchers look better than they actually are. Beginning with Ross Peeples and his 1.34 ERA in 2001- though with Peeples, bone spurs and Tommy John surgery certainly contributed to his career as a prospect derailing- Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park has made its fair share of duds look like studs (no offense to any of those player, of course- I just liked the rhyme).

Jose Chirinos, surprisingly, has had the opposite effect occur. Earlier in the year, in St. Lucie, he looked great. Since his promotion to Brooklyn at the beginning of June, he hasn’t looked all that great. Much of the damage done against the right-hander came in his first bunch of starts, and he’s settled down some since then, but with the totality of everything, he has been more hittable, has been walking more batters, has been getting fewer swings-and-misses, and has been showing batted ball metric data trending in the wrong direction.

I was interested in digging into his numbers and maybe trying to figure out why Chirinos hasn’t exactly been helped by a park that has helped so many other pitchers over the last 25 years look better than they actually are/were. One thing I noticed immediately about Chirinos is that the right-hander has pretty huge platoon splits, with right-handed batters hitting .199/.276/.304 against him in 226 total plate appearances but left-handed batters hitting .274/.350/.503 in 200 total plate appearances. Baseball-Reference unfortunately does not further break down these splits by home and road, but looking at the data, he’s thrown more innings at home than he has on the road (36.2 innings in 7 home starts versus 22.2 innings in 5 away games), so basic logic would suggest that he’s had more matchups against left-handed batters at home than he has against left-handed batters on the road. The fact that Maimonides Park hasn’t helped him against left-handed batters as it has so many other New York-Penn League/South Atlantic League pitchers is a weird peculiarity. The park is usually very tough against them, and yet, of the six home runs Chirinos has allowed at home, four were against left-handed batters.

At the end of the day, based simply on stuff, I don’t see Jose Chirinos having Jacob deGrom upside despite the resemblance, or much of a particularly high upside, in general, but based on 25 seasons of Cyclones baseball, he should arguably be looking more a lot more deGromian.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

Week Six (April 30-May 3): A.J. Ewing/Jonah Tong

Week Seven (May 5-May 10): Ryan Clifford/Jonathan Santucci

Week Eight: (May 12-May 17): Jacob Reimer/Zach Thornton

Week Nine: (May 19-May 24): Ryan Clifford/Channing Austin

Week Ten: (May 26-May 31): Ryan Clifford/Jose Chirinos

Week Eleven: (June 2-June 7): Vincent Perozo/Frank Camarillo

Week Twelve: (June 9-June 14): JT Benson/Nick Carreno

Week Thirteen (June 16-June 21): Nick Morabito/Jonathan Santucci

Week Fourteen (June 23-June 28): JT Benson/Daviel Hurtado

Week Fifteen: (June 30-July 5): MJ Melendez/Daviel Hurtado

Week Sixteen: (July 7-July 12): Daiverson Gutierrez/Jonathan Santucci

Week Seventeen (July 13-July 19): MJ Melendez/Noah Hall

Week Eighteen: (July 21-July 26): Ronny Mauricio/Conner Ware

Week Nineteen: (July 28-August 2): Mitch Voit/Jonah Tong

Week Twenty (August 3-August 9): Mitch Voit/Noah Hall

It was a bold move by the front office to acquire Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. From an offensive standpoint, he was more or less exactly what they needed: a contact oriented hitter with an acute allergy to striking out, particularly when runners were on base. It has been something that has plagued the offense for years, so adding in someone (and putting them in a run producing spot) has had good results thus far.

However, the biggest issue was always going to be the defense. Arraez’s stated preference to continue playing second base for any team interested in taking him on meant there would be shuffling around the infield for the Phillies. Bryson Stott was going to have to move positions, Alec Bohm was going to have move positions, Bryce Harper was going to have to move positions. It all became something of a logistical nightmare to try and fit all of those players into spots they hadn’t been accustomed to in years, some in multiple years. The assumption was that the defense was going to be an abysmal nightmare of infield butchery and necessary defensive substitution.

While it’s far too early to have any concrete analysis, one can pretty safely say the defense has been….fine.

The ones that we would have expected to be bad (Bohm at first, Harper in right field) have been just that, but the others are simply average, something that the team is probably happy with. Given that what they were working with, these are numbers that they can likely live with.

As I just mentioned, the two that have been the worst according to FRV are Harper and Bohm. Starting with Harper, it has been a period of readjustment to the outfield. Having not played the position since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, there has been an element of rustiness to his game as he has been out there. Some catches that probably should have been made haven’t been.

There is probably a certain amount of change Harper has to go through, particularly where his knee is concerned. He has spoken of the soreness he is experiencing in the joint right now, comparing it to spring training and the normal aches and pains that come with playing the position for the first time after a certain amount of time off, so maybe there will be some improvement as the season continues moving towards the end. He’s ranked near the bottom of the league in fielding run value (FRV) since the time of the trade, but it’s still a small sample size so maybe some better health will help that number look a little better.

With someone like Bohm, he is just going to be a bad first baseman.

In his career, he has been below average at the position when given the chance to play there, so they’re likely content to simply continue with that kind of defensive production at first. Besides, Harper was no great shakes there this season anyway.

What’s at least mildly surprising is that Bryson Stott has certainly taken to third base like a duck to water, making routine plays look positively routine while also showing some surprising range.

These are plays that the previous third baseman simply wasn’t going to be making, so it’s nice to have at least basic competency at the position. The athleticism that Stott has probably had much to do with their decision to be fine moving him to the hot corner, thinking he’d be able to make plays like this with mild regularity.

Now, it is foolish to declare this experiment a full blown success based on a little over 100 innings of defense. The sample size for most defensive statistics require a lengthy period of stabilization before we can truly put our trust in them. We would need to see this group together for an entire season, maybe two, before we can say this alignment has been a success. Yet this is what we have, 100 innings to show that maybe this will be fine enough to get through this season. Is there still a rough patch in the future? Possibly. Playing out of position all the time means the ball will probably find someone at the worst possible time.

For now, it’s fine. And that’s about all we can ask for.

The Kansas City Royals finally won a road series, and Noah Cameron made sure the finale was memorable with a one-hit complete-game shutout in Anaheim that Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco treat as the centerpiece of this episode. The Royals had not won a road series in more than two months, making the victory over the Los Angeles Angels feel like a moment for this aimless team to relish in.

Cameron’s recent run of starts allowing one hit or fewer over seven-plus innings belongs in historical context, and the hosts dig into why his slider, changeup, and overall pitch-calling approach suggest something sustainable rather than a hot streak. It is the kind of performance that changes how a sophomore pitcher is evaluated.

The roster continues to shift. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino are both back from rehab, triggering a series of corresponding moves involving Josh Rojas, José Cuas, Starling Marte, and Connor Thomas. The bullpen and rotation picture gets a thorough look as well, with Beck Way’s rehab assignment, Carlos Estévez, Nick Mears, Lucas Erceg, and Daniel Lynch IV all factoring into a conversation about why the organization keeps leaning on veteran depth. Tony Gonsolin’s major league signing adds a high-upside but genuinely uncertain wrinkle to the pitching picture, and Jacob and Jeremy temper their expectations given his extensive injury history.

Beyond the current roster, MLB Pipeline’s updated farm system rankings have the Royals sitting 19th, prompting a discussion of whether the system trends up or down as the organization pushes toward 2027. The reported sale of the San Diego Padres becomes a broader conversation about franchise value and why the Royals should not be treated as a small-market afterthought, while the Kansas City ballpark situation remains messy, with the city’s reported six hundred million dollar offer and its financing structure drawing real criticism over the proposed lease terms.

The episode also remembers Tommy John and his lasting impact on the sport, and looks ahead to the Royals’ appearance in next year’s Field of Dreams game.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

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The Colorado Rockies have had a miserable time against teams over .500, posting an abysmal 23-50 record.

The Los Angeles Dodgers predictably flexed their muscles in the series opener, and my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18 are banking on more of the same tonight.

Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies today: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers ran up the score Monday, and I expect them to do so again vs. Ryan Feltner tonight.

He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, ranking in the fourth percentile in Pitcher Run Value. Feltner is in dreadful form, posting a 6.05 xFIP and 1.7 K-BB% over the last month.

He neither misses bats nor limits power, which will make it difficult to get outs against a patient Dodgers lineup.

Eric Lauer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one start with L.A., and that’s all he’ll need to do.

Play to -135.

COVERS INTEL: The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS, and should have a field day against Feltner and his eighth percentile barrel rate.

Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Over 11.5 (-115)

The Dodgers haven’t been themselves of late, but they still rank in the 99th percentile with a .426 xSLG against righties.

They’re set up to score in abundance against Feltner, who owns a seventh percentile ranking in xSLG and will have nowhere to hide at Coors.

Favorable hitting weather is expected, with a projected 25% boost to home runs. Feltner owns a 6.69 ERA over eight starts when there’s been a boost of 20% or more.

Lauer has struggled with the long ball (2.01 HR/9), and the Colorado Rockies rank third in home OPS.

Play to -122.

Dodgers vs Rockies home run prediction: Kyle Tucker (+475)

I like the idea of buying low on Kyle Tucker.

He's been much more productive on the road, and there’s no better environment to hit than Coors Field.

Tucker has left the park in 19% of his away games vs. starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse vs. lefties, and Feltner sits in the 16th percentile.

Tucker has hit for the most power against the fastball, Feltner’s most-used pitch, and Tucker hit a 362-foot flyout just yesterday.

I’d play Tucker down to +450.

Dodgers vs Rockies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s, which should help the ball carry even further for hitters. Boost to the offenses.

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -190 | Rockies +160
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-115) | Under 11.5 (-105)

Dodgers vs Rockies trend

Colorado has hit the Over in 14 of its last 23 (+3.80 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info

Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries

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The Giants and Guardians made an early season trade – now they play a late-season series with the trade pieces likely playing a prominent role for each of these disappointing teams.

The Giants are 51-73 with a -67 run differential, 20th in team wRC+ with 97, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -4.9, 18th in Defense at -20.9, 19th in starting pitcher ERA 4.37 (4.09 FIP), and 24th in bullpen ERA 4.38 (4.32 FIP).

The Guardians are 60-65 with a -32 run differential, 24th in team wRC+ with 94, ninth in baserunning runs above average at 5.2, eighth in Defense at -4.8, 10th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.77 (3.99 FIP), and 12th in bullpen ERA 3.97 (3.90 FIP).

The Giants are pretty bad at just about everything. If ever there is a time for the season to turn around, it should be now.

Matchups:
Tuesday, 6:40PM ET: Whisenhunt, LHP 6.11 ERA (5.40 FIP) vs. Griffin, LHP 3.25 ERA (4.23 FIP)
Wednesday, 6:40PM ET: TBD (Houser, RHP 4.28/4.67 FIP or Tugboat Wilkinson, LHP) vs. Messick, LHP 2.59 ERA (3.23 FIP)
Thursday, 1:10PM ET: Roupp, RHP 4.31 ERA (3.62 FIP) vs. Williams, RHP 3.74 ERA (3.59 FIP)

The Giants are led by Bryce Eldridge 117 wRC+, Rafael Devers 117 wRC+, Casey Schmitt 114 wRC+, Jung Hoo Lee 111 wRC+, and Victor Beritoco 109 wRC+.

The Guardians are led by Nathaniel Lowe 128 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 127 wRC+ (please, be back), Angel Genao 126 wRC+, Austin Hedges 105 wRC+, Steven Kwan 104 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 103 wRC+ and Travis Bazzana 102 wRC+.

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Who will win Marlins vs Phillies today: Marlins (+197)

The Fightin' Fish look pretty delectable this evening after coming off a 6-5 loss last night. They now draw veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has looked off in his last three outings. Wheeler owns a 5.84 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and a 10.34% walk rate during that stretch. With the Miami Marlins' lineup starting to heat up again, this could be an interesting matchup. 

The Marlins own a 119 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .759 OPS in their last six games. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has been great, but they don't boast as many hitters barreling the ball like the Marlins, which is why the latter is an intriguing pick at a near 2/1 price. 

Tyler Phillips seems likely to follow opener Cade Gibson for Miami. He's been struggling, but paying more than two dollars for a team to secure a win on a random Tuesday in August doesn't move any needles. 

COVERS INTEL:Owen Caissie sports a .274 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate, and a 19.4% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

With over half of the Marlins' lineup batting from the left side this evening, runs could be on the horizon. Wheeler has scuffling against left-handed hitters in his last three outings, posting a 6.75 ERA, 5.78 xERA, 6.05 xFIP, and 15.2% walk rate. Phillips has also been lagging on the road, where he owns a near 6.00 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.

Both offenses are hitting extremely well right now, so I expect plenty of runs. After 11 runs were scored last night, we should see a similar offensive explosion this evening.

Marlins vs Phillies home run prediction: Griffin Conine (+474)

It's very hard to ignore a batter who's been producing this much hard contact over his last 10 games, and Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine has been destroying baseballs. He owns a .690 slugging percentage, .345 ISO, 15.8% ground-ball rate, 58% hard-hit rate, and 21.1% barrel rate during that stretch.

Wheeler has taken a step back against left-handed hitters. The last 60 he's faced are making 44% hard contact, and barreling the ball 11% of the time with just a 22% ground-ball rate. Wheeler is also allowing a 2.08 HR/9 during that span.

Conine enters today with the highest matchup rating in this game, according to Batters-Box, where he covers 60% of Wheeler's offerings.

At +474, we're getting a great price for a hitter absolutely killing the baseball. Play this down to +450.

Marlins vs Phillies weather

Marlins vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +197 | Phillies -219
• Run line: Marlins +1.5 (-112) | Phillies -1.5 (-103)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-116)

Marlins vs Phillies trend

The Miami Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last nine games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies.

How to watch Marlins vs Phillies and game info

Marlins vs Phillies latest injuries

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Patrick Sandoval has been playing with fire baserunners all season since returning from Tommy John surgery this year, and it finally blew up on the Red Sox over the weekend. Now we’re hearing that an injury may be playing a role in his performance, even if it’s a small one. Sandoval apparently has been battling a blister on his left foot (the foot he uses to push off the rubber) for most of the year. (Jon Conahan, NESN)

If Sandoval does go on the IL — or if he’s just bumped from the rotation for underperformance — the Sox do have another experienced starter on the roster who could take his rotation spot in Brayan Bello. The problem is that Bello, for whatever reason, is thriving in his long relief role after struggling in the first inning all season long. “Does this mean Brayan can’t start anymore? That’s not the case,” Chad Tracy said. “It’s difficult to ignore how very, very effective he has been coming out of the bullpen in a bulk relief role and taking down innings. So I don’t think that we’ve closed the book on that by any means. It just feels like that’s the way to do it right now.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Bello is pitching so well in his long relief role that it’s hard not to think about what the narrative of his season would be if he was able to perform this way as a conventional starter. He has an ERA of 0.85 in over 50 relief innings, and if he were performing anywhere close to that while starting games, we’d be talking about him having a career year and thrusting himself into the Cy Young conversation. As it stands, Cam Schlittler of the Yankees seems to have that award locked up, though Sonny Gray is currently projected to finish fifth. (Jason Foster, MLB.com)

Sonny Gray is rightly heralded as one of the best offseason acquisitions any big league team has made this year. But, so far, the Red Sox trade deadline acquisitions aren’t faring nearly as well. (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

Bello isn’t the only Red Sox veteran who went missing from this team for most of the middle of the season, of course. Trevor Story has been out since mid-May recovering from sports hernia surgery, after struggling through the first weeks of the season. But he now hopes to return as early as Friday. It’s fair to ask whether he still should get the nod at shortstop given his poor performance before hitting the IL, but Chad Tracy says the goal is for him to be the everyday shortstop again. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

If he does make it back to the big leagues this week, Story won’t be the first one to make the trip East from Worcester. Reliever Wyatt Olds made the drive yesterday, after being called up to make his MLB debut in place of Raymond Burgos. But before he headed to Boston, he got pranked by the Woo Sox coaching staff. (Mac Cerullo, Boston Herald)

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We may be in the dog days of summer, but there is a full slate of baseball waiting for us, so it can't be all bad!

Today's MLB expert picks offer a trio of moneyline predictions, including the underdog Miami Marlins as an upset special over Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.

It's part of our full set of MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TOR ML	+122
Jon Metler: MIA ML	+203
Dustin Saracini: NYM/SD u8.5	+100
Joe Osborne: MIL ML	-150

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket

The Toronto Blue Jays finally had a day off yesterday after a stretch of 17 straight games. Over that stretch, Toronto posted the best team ERA in baseball and went 11-6 straight up against some of MLB's best teams.

THE BAT has the Jays as a 56-cent favorite, but they’re trading at just 45 cents, making this the best +EV play on the board today, according to the projection.

The Jays also have a rested bullpen, while the Tampa Bay Rays could be down two arms, including closer Bryan Baker, who threw 21 pitches yesterday and has pitched in two of the last three days. Their best lefty, Cam Booser, is also unavailable. 

Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the shelf, Toronto can still win this game on pitching alone.

Nick Martinez is coming off a 101-pitch complete game, his season high, which could affect his efficiency today. Jose Soriano has also looked good since coming over from the Halos.

Dustin Saracini has a full preview of the action with his Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Marlins moneyline

Price: 33¢ (+203) at Polymarket

Fading the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound is never an easy sell, but this matchup sets up well for the Miami Marlins.

Wheeler will make it difficult to string together big innings, so Miami needs to find creative ways to manufacture runs. That means working counts, driving up Wheeler's pitch count, forcing an early move to the bullpen, creating pressure on the basepaths, and using contact plays and hit-and-runs.

The good news is that none of this is outside Miami's offensive identity.

The Marlins don't need to rely on big swings or home runs to score. They can manufacture runs in a variety of ways, which is exactly the approach you want against a pitcher like Wheeler.

The Marlins are trading at 33 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 37 cents, which gives us enough of an edge to hit the button.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Marlins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Padres vs. Mets Under 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

We're running with a large sample size of success with Robbie Ray and the hot hand in Zac Thornton tonight.

This New York Mets lineup has 82 at-bats against Ray and owns just a .204 xBA while striking out 30% of the time.

What sold me here is their astronomical 37% whiff rate against the San Diego Padres' prized deadline acquisition — look for him to end New York's four-game winning streak, too.

Thornton has been dealing lately, allowing just three earned runs across his last 11 innings. While the Mets' No. 8 prospect pitches to contact, he's allowed a low 4.5% hard-contact rate this season, which will be enough to suppress the Padres' bats.

With two well-rested bullpens, I'm expecting this game to cruise Under the total. 

I'd play this to 55 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, SNY

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

The Milwaukee Brewers have a major pitching edge tonight as they return home following a seven-game road trip.

Kyle Harrison has been lights out in Milwaukee, posting a 1.38 ERA across 10 home starts. He’s backed by a bullpen in good form, ranking third in ERA over the last two weeks. 

Meanwhile, Bryce Miller has allowed nine earned runs across two August starts and hasn’t been the same pitcher on the road, where his ERA is more than double his mark at home.

The Seattle Mariners’ bullpen has also been a disgrace lately, posting an MLB-worst 7.17 ERA over the past two weeks. Milwaukee is one of MLB's top home teams, going 12-4 at American Family Field since the All-Star break.

For more on this game, Quinn Allen has a full slate of Mariners vs. Brewers predictions on tap.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Mariners.TV, Brewers.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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The Chicago Cubs (-170) are coming off a thrilling extra-innings victory, and they're in a good spot to grab another win tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

They have Kevin Gausman on the mound going up against a steady stream of relievers, making the home team an attractive buy with my White Sox vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

Who will win White Sox vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs (-170)

Kevin Gausman has pitched better than the results indicate over the past month.

He’s held opponents to a 31.1% hard-hit rate — third-lowest among today’s projected starters — and has a 0.68 HR/9, but hasn’t kept runs off the board in part due to an unsustainably high .364 BABIP and a low 61.8% strand rate.

He’s in a good spot to rebound against the Chicago White Sox. They’ve hit .233 against righties in August while striking out 27.4% of the time.

The Chicago Cubs should give him plenty of support against a bullpen sitting 22nd with a 4.70 xFIP this month.

Play to -180.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs rank second in homers and third in HR/FB at home over the last month.

White Sox vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-126)

The White Sox have gotten five innings out of their starter just once over the past five games, putting a lot of strain on their relievers.

That’s far from ideal heading into a designated bullpen game where nine innings are needed from a group in poor form.

The Cubs rank third in wOBA and first in ISO in August, and are certainly capable of making life difficult on this bullpen.

While the White Sox haven’t hit for average, they do have power that should play well at Wrigley with winds blowing out.

Take to -135.

White Sox vs Cubs home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+245)

There are no secrets when facing Gausman. You’re going to see a ton of fastballs, and you’re going to see a ton of splitters.

Munetaka Murakami hasn’t faced many splitters this season, but he has absolutely destroyed the fastball against right-handed pitching.

He owns a ridiculous 27.5% barrel rate, 62.5% hard-hit rate, and .436 ISO. He is likely to sit on the fastball, and it only takes one good swing to do damage – especially with the predicted 15% home run boost with help from the wind at Wrigley.

Back to +230.

White Sox vs Cubs weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with up to 10 mph winds blowing out. While there could be some rain, the bats will see a boost.

White Sox vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +145 | Cubs -170
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-135) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)

White Sox vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have won 33 of their last 50 games (+11.65 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Cubs.

How to watch White Sox vs Cubs and game info

White Sox vs Cubs latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to Tuesday A’s fans!

The club can’t seem to get things right, even against a fellow bottom dweller like the Kansas City Royals. At 49-76 the team is tied with the Angels for the worst record in the sport. We need a win tonight or else we could be all alone at the bottom by the end of the day.

The A’s will be hoping that right-hander Jack Perkins can play stopper and help get the A’s their 50th win. That could be a tall task however, considering the massive struggles Perk has seen this year.

It’s easy to forget but the 26-year-old was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the system just last year. A former 5th round pick, the right-hander looked solid in a 12-game, four-start cup of coffee for his big league debut last year. There weren’t huge expectations for him this season, but there was an expectation he’d be able to hold himself.

That hasn’t really been the case. There have definitely been flashes of brilliance that make us see what he could become but consistency has eluded him in his brief time as a major leaguer. Perhaps some of that has to do with the fact that he began the year in the bullpen before being promoted to the starting rotation. Some pitchers make that transition look easy but those guys are the exception and not the rule. It’s much more common to see guys such as Perkins go through some struggles during their first extended look in the big leagues.

Struggles are putting it mildly for Perkins though. In the 11 starts since being slotted into the starting five the righty has an abysmal 8.17 ERA. Things aren’t exactly trending in the right direction either: he’s gotten shelled in his three August starts, allowing at least five runs in each appearance. That’s a streak that needs to stop tonight.

Many of Perkins’ underlying numbers don’t look as bad as that ERA does, but they’re still not great numbers overall. A lot of this can be chalked up to rookie growing pains. Some can be attributed to the mid-season role switch. Some blame on the ballpark. Some blame on the defense. There’s plenty of blame to go around for his tough season, but most of it has to be on the pitcher himself.

That’s not to say we should consider him a failed pitcher already. The thing we have to begin thinking about now though is what kind of role will he thrive best in? Is that going to be in the rotation, where he’s been among the worst in the sport this year? Or as a longman out of the bullpen who goes in short two, three inning bursts? The club will almost certainly add some starting pitching depth this offseason and push him down the depth chart, but the team would do well to pick a role for Perkins moving forward and sticking with it. What role should Perkins have on the next playoff contending A’s squad?

We don’t know who will be opposing Perkins tonight in Kansas City to stay tuned. First pitch is at 4:40. See you all then, and have a great Tuesday!

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Drop Road Trip Opener 9-5
• A’s Take Series Against Rangers, Win 5-2
• A’s place Soderstrom on 10-day IL with left hip impingement; Hernaiz recalled
• Late Blast Lifts Rangers Over Athletics
• Jeff McNeil Leads A’s to 8-3 Victory Over Rangers
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• 111 games, zero errors: Wilson sets MLB record at shortstop
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• A’s Top Prospect Jamie Arnold Sets Career High in One of His Best Double-A Starts
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season
• Signs Of Hope And Signs Of Hopeless
• Athletics prospect Ryan Lasko says feeling in his legs returning
• Cuban’s investment group purchases minority stake in Athletics
• Chan Ho Park joins A’s group; 1st Korean to buy stake in MLB club
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice

MLB News and Interest:

• D-backs star Marte placed on restricted list after not showing up at Fenway
• Yankees activate Carlos Rodon, place Max Fried on 15-day IL
• Cubs Place Edward Cabrera, Dansby Swanson On Injured List
• PCA 1st since 2010 with leadoff, walk-off home runs
• AL, NL Cy Young races seem all but decided as Schlittler, Miz dominate latest poll
• Two straight runners tested him at home. He fired 99 mph, 103 mph to nail them both!
• Mariners, Andy Ibáñez Agree To Minor League Deal
• Here are the current top prospects at each position
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Some major injury updates:

Prospect promotions:

Maybe a Wink in our future?

Haven’t seen that reported, any sources anyone?

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The Toronto Blue Jays will be well-rested going into Game 1 of their series with the Tampa Bay Rays after a day off, so I'm rocking with the road 'dogs as part of my Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.

With Jose Soriano on the mound and a rested bullpen behind him, plus the Blue Jays owning strong numbers against Rays starter Nick Martinez, I'm seeing a slight edge we can take advantage of.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18, and cash a same-game parlay, shall we?

Blue Jays vs Rays predictions

Blue Jays vs Rays best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+115)

When I say this could be the best spot to bet the Toronto Blue Jays during this three-game set in Tampa, I come with support.

Nick Martinez goes for the Tampa Bay Rays, and on top of not being able to miss any bats this season (14% K rate, 17% whiff rate),the Blue Jays own a .310 xBA and .352 xwOBA against him while striking out at just a 10% clip.

On the other side is Jose Soriano, who's limiting the Rays to a .245 xBA, including shutting down their star Yandy Diaz over 14 at-bats (.212 xBA).

It helps that the Rays have a taxed bullpen, too, using a combined five arms last night after Shane McClanahan got the early hook.

Coming into this game losers of three of their last four after a tough series against the Baltimore Orioles, expect the Jays to come out swinging.

I'd play this to +105.

COVERS INTEL: It could be the George Springer show against Martinez. The veteran is 8-for-19 with two homers with a .401 xBA against the right-hander.

Blue Jays vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)

The Jays are winners of six straight series, and the Rays' pitching has been getting absolutely pummeled, surrendering 26 runs across their last four games.

Martinez is a sinker-ball pitcher, throwing it 30% of the time. It's a pitch Ernie Clement owns a .368 average against, playing right into our hands. Look for the Jays, and Clement, to get to the Rays' right-hander early and take advantage of an extremely tired bullpen.

We're playing it safer in the same-game parlay and rocking with the Blue Jays on the run line, giving us multiple opportunities to cash today.

Blue Jays vs Rays SGP

• Blue Jays +1.5
• Blue Jays team total Over 3.5 runs
• Ernie Clement H/R/RBI

Blue Jays vs Rays home run pick: Ernie Clement (+1200)

Outside of Springer, Clement has the strongest numbers against Martinez, owning a .689 xSLG with a homer against the righty across seven at-bats. I'm staying off Springer for the most part today due to the sore shoulder he's playing through, which could suppress his power.

Clement came off the bench and played in Game 2 against the Yankees (going 2-for-2) and is in a prime spot to hit his first homer since Aug. 5 against a contact pitcher. Lock him in as a long-shot play.

Blue Jays vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (+115) | Tampa Bay (-135)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Rays trend

The Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays' last five games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Rays and game info

Blue Jays vs Rays latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Rays weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.