Another poor second quarter leads Hawks to crushing defeat versus Celtics

The Atlanta Hawks returned home to State Farm Arena on Saturday night but did not return to winning ways as they suffered a 132-106 defeat to the Boston Celtics in their first meeting of four this season. Jaylen Brown ignited for 41 points, while Sam Hauser added 30 points. For the Hawks, Onyeka Okongwu scored a team-high 21 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 18 points.

The Hawks entered the contest without primary defender Dyson Daniels — missing the game due to a right ankle sprain — while Zaccharie Risacher (left knee, bone contusion) and Kristaps Porzingis (left Achilles tendinitis) continue to remain sidelined. In Daniels’ place, CJ McCollum got the nod for his first start in front of the Atlanta-faithful.

The first quarter was defined by an 18-point effort by Jaylen Brown, shooting 7-of-13 in the first quarter (only Luka Doncic has attempted more field goals in a first quarter this season with 14). That said, the Hawks — while briefly falling behind by double-digits — only trailed by seven points at the end of the first quarter, with Okongwu and Alexander-Walker both scoring eight points in the opening frame.

Then came, similar to the recent Lakers game, what turned out to be the decisive second quarter. The Celtics outscored the Hawks 52-28, running the lead not just back to double digits, nor stopping at 20 points, but ran all the way to 31 points heading into the locker room.

While another strong, 11-point quarter from Brown didn’t help the Hawks’ situation (taking Brown’s first half tally to 29 points), Sam Hauser hitting six threes and scoring 18 points in the second quarter alone was more damaging in the quarter. Anfernee Simons scored 11 points off the bench in the second quarter and did a great job of helping the Celtics extend and build their lead while Brown was on the bench — possibly the most impressive element of the Celtics’ run in the second quarter. While the Celtics shot 76% in the second quarter and hit 11 threes (14 in total in the first half), the Hawks shot 36% in the quarter and 37% for the entire game.

Let’s take a look at the many breakdowns that contributed to give the Celtics their game-defining 52-point quarter.

Hauser’s shooting last night was fantastic (even though he got greedy at the end of the game trying to chase a Celtics record, finishing with the highest number of threes attempted by any player in the NBA so far this season with 21) but the Hawks made his life so much easier than it needed to be. It started with Hauser easily shedding Mo Gueye and rising into an open three:

Hawks head coach Quin Snyder was not pleased following this shot, and it’s not hard to understand why — limiting Hauser’s effectiveness from three would be among the top items of any scouting report playing the Celtics. Getting an open three-point shot like this would absolutely be on the Hawks’ margin of error that they cannot afford, and for Gueye to allow this one was only the start.

Gueye would be at fault again for the next three the Celtics hit. On a screen for Simons by Derrick White, Gueye tries to get back to Simons. Corey Kispert is locked onto the switch on the screen and communicates to Gueye that he doesn’t need to get back to Simons and to go with White. It takes far too long for Gueye to get this sorted, and by the time he does Simons has swung the ball to White, Alexander-Walker has to step up, leaving Baylor Scheierman in the corner for an open three:

While the Hawks would probably be OK with Scheierman shooting a three instead of White or Simons, the process is the problem and a breakdown that could have easily been avoided.

After a missed layup by Alexander-Walker (a decent drive, just leaving the ball offline), the Celtics come in transition and the Hawks get themselves matched up just fine — it’s the screen from Hauser and Neemias Queta that causes the issue. The screen from Queta puts Luke Kennard behind Hauser, and Okongwu is apt to the threat of Hauser from three and steps up to prevent any chance of Hauser springing into the three, but at the cost of Queta rolling to the basket. Gueye makes a better read of the play this time, and steps up to White, whose quick pass inside to Queta leads to the make on the Queta flip:

This is liveable if you’re the Hawks: you’ve prevented the Hauser three, met White on the perimeter, and you take your chances with a shot like that from Queta (even from close range). The right reads were made, and Queta made the shot; fair enough — it was well run by the Celtics. It did restore Boston’s double-digit lead, and prompting the Atlanta timeout.

Three free throws from Kispert after the timeout looked to be followed by a stop, as the lob to Queta is offline, and the loose ball falls to Gueye. However, he fails to protect the ball on the rebound, and Queta strips him and dunks:

Gueye’s rough stretch continued immediately, as Kispert does well to find the cutting Gueye, whose reverse layup is missed and ends up on the floor (the reaction from Snyder is worth noting), and as Scheierman explores his options, the Celtics have a man advantage as Gueye tracks back but by the time he does it’s too late. White has received the ball and hit the three-pointer to cap off a very tough sequence for the Hawks:

A missed shot by Jalen Johnson (who didn’t have the jumper on his side last night) followed by a step-back jumper from Simons put the Celtics up 14 points, and Johnson would again find his impact limited as he’s pressured by Hauser, and Scheierman doubles from behind to poke the ball away from Johnson to force the turnover. Simons then pulls up and drains the three over Kispert and the Celtics take a 17-point lead and force another Atlanta timeout:

After those Kispert free throws, the Celtic lead was seven points. Just over a minute later it had ballooned to 17 points — all without Jaylen Brown on the court. Considering Brown’s dominance in the first quarter, this felt like a massively missed opportunity for the Hawks, and now they were really in trouble.

Vit Krejci’s three out of the timeout is cancelled out by another pull-up three from Simons, and the Hawks just aren’t getting the scoring they need from Jalen Johnson, who found opportunities inside the paint limited and his drives limited by some excellent Celtic defense (whose perimeter defense was excellent). On this play, Johnson tries to take it into the chest of White, but with Luka Garza behind White waiting, Johnson tries to flip up a shot instead and it falls short:

Hauser returns for his second three, shooting over McCollum after the screen, and all of a sudden, the Celtics have a 20-point lead. The Hawks hit back with back-to-back threes to cut the lead to 14 points.

CJ McCollum had a very rough first half, shooting 2-of-10 from the field, and got caught with a turnover out of bounds before air-balling a three, off of which he gets his hand in for a strip on Brown…only to see the Celtics recover possession, and now the Hawks are everywhere defensively. Johnson is now guarding nobody, Krejci has to step up and leave his man, Asa Newell doesn’t get the shout that Hauser is now open in the short-corner, and Johnson’s attempts to get over to him are in vain, as Hauser hits another open three:

For his next three, Hauser in the corner guarded by Johnson, who has one eye on the ball and the paint, and it feels as though he’s daydreaming as he’s following Hauser, and is ultimately a step slow as Hauser steps up to the Queta screen, and this Okongwu doesn’t/isn’t able to step up to meet Hauser on the screen and the three is made:

Now, it’s Brown’s time to get going again. After free throws on the Okongwu foul — followed by an Okongwu three — Brown targets his matchup with Krejci and is just too strong for him, taking the ball to the rim and finishing with ease:

I don’t blame Krejci for anything there; Brown is just too strong in this spot. It’s really, really poor from Johnson to offer no help for Krejci when he’s right there in a position to do so. It’s not as though Johnson is looking at anyone else — and his man in transition here is Queta, who is not going to be stretching the floor.

Brown’s strength versus Krejci is reinforced moments later — following a missed McCollum floater and Okongwu three — as he gets to the rim, Krejci tries to hold him back as he goes up, and Brown powers and adjusts to finish, plus the foul:

Again, the action returns to Sam Hauser. Johnson begins the possession guarding Hauser, but when the slip from Queta comes, Johnson switches to the rolling Queta. Okongwu tracks back to Queta but this has all left Hauser open, and he hits another open three:

Krejci gets bumped initially here, and that’s likely why Okongwu stays with White as Queta rolls. Johnson makes the right read to switch — it starts with Okongwu, who doesn’t know until he turns to see Johnson with Queta and it’s too late to get to Hauser.

A miss from McCollum and a mid-range jumper from Brown extends the lead to 31 points to compound a miserable first half for the Atlanta Hawks.

“They were too comfortable” said CJ McCollum of the second quarter. “We’ve got to be more physical at the point of contact…”

The Hawks were recently faced with a similar deficit against the Lakers, and while they were able to make a comeback, of sorts, to cut the lead to 11, there was no such comeback to be had on Saturday. The Celtics quickly extended their lead coming out of the locker room, ran the lead to as high as 43, and consistently kept the lead between 35 and 40 points for the majority of the second half. The lowest the Boston lead dipped in the second half was at the very end, long into garbage time, at its final resting place of 26 points (which is generous for the Hawks as a final margin of defeat).

Postgame, Quin Snyder was left a lot to reflect on when asked about the factors that contribute to the Hawks’ efforts last night. These ranged from the number of games played recently, a lack of urgency and execution, and of course Boston’s 52-point quarter.

“I think there’s a number of factors,” said Snyder. “We’re coming back from a pretty good stretch of games. We talked about it before the game (about) finding some juice. We didn’t have that. When we talk about that, it manifests itself in competitiveness or urgency, whether it be up at the point of the screen, in execution, or someone makes a three, or not running hard enough where we get spacing and can get to the rim. We didn’t run at all offensively. At the beginning of the game we didn’t have good possession, we took contested, mid-range shots without moving the ball. That’s not who we are, that’s not how we play. I think our commitment to some of those things offensively was lacking, especially early. We’ve started finding a little of that. Part of it for us right now is we’re integrating a couple of new guys on the fly. That’s something we need to be aware of. Usually when you do that there are stretches that are like this where you can see those things. Either players collectively don’t quite understand what we’re doing, it’s not habitual, and that interaction, we’ve got to find that on the fly.

“As that’s going on, we can’t give up a 52-point quarter. That may be all I should say. Our competitive focus on the defensive end during that stretch in particular is not where it needs to go. That results in all kinds of breakdowns, executions and they made us pay for that. I think it’s important for us to understand that this is a process, to the extent that we’re really focused on the things that we know when we do make us successful, that happens quicker. You see it happen during the course of the game at various times. It just has to happen more. That wasn’t the case tonight obviously…”

Snyder went on to explain the various difficulties and challenges the Celtics present on the court. We saw some of these unfold in the second quarter: from losing shooters because others had to step up and rotate, dunks from Queta from the threat of the roll man, Brown getting to the rim, Snyder expounded on all of these elements the Celtics bring to the table.

“If there’s three things in a given possession: if they’re running pick-and-roll and you’re not far up, Simons hits a three,” explained Snyder. “If you’re trapping and you don’t trap, Jaylen Brown goes by you and puts you in the rim. If you’re trapping and doing the right thing and there’s a roller going and you don’t rotate, it’s a dunk. If you bung-bung-bung, take away that, don’t rotate to the corner, it’s a three. We had all that in all those situations. The thing that has to happen is when they run a certain play consecutive times, that’s where your level has to go up. We have to deny the ball to take them out of the play. We didn’t have that grit that we needed. Whatever coverages and all those things — nothing is going to work if we don’t have that urgency and focus … we have a small margin. We’re not going to be perfect, but we have to try to be.”

When referencing plays that were ran consecutive times with success, it’s hard not to think of all those threes Hauser made and the rinse-and-repeat nature of them. They were really poorly defended at times, and it’s plays like this I believe Snyder is referring to.

Not having Dyson Daniels available to help guard Brown was difficult for the Hawks. Brown scored 41 points in three quarters, and while his usage and shot volume is high (shooting 14-of-30 from the field), he was still efficient and proficient at getting to the line (11-of-12).

“We weren’t being physical,” said Okongwu when asked about Jaylen Brown. “We were messing up our coverages…”

It’s difficult to say that anyone played well in this spot for the Hawks. Through three quarters — before extended garbage time — only Okongwu shot higher than 50% from the field. Jalen Johnson really struggled in this game, 4-of-14 from the field for 11 points. Johnson had difficulties breaking the Celtics’ defense down off the dribble, and with the Celtics scoring so often the rebounds and transition opportunities Johnson thrives on were limited.

More than anything at the moment, Johnson looked tired and leggy — his jumpers were quite short last night, usually indicative of a player fighting fatigue. McCollum, similarly, shot 4-of-14 from the field, while Alexander-Walker (6-of-16) did not fare much better. The less said about Mo Gueye’s game — particularly his second quarter — the better. Meanwhile, Corey Kispert had a solid 16 points in what was the only positive performance off the bench.

Vit Krecji’s recent struggles have continued: 1-of-6 shooting for Vit in 18 minutes, limited by foul trouble. I’ll hold my hands up: I thought Krejci would fare better than Risacher in the starting lineup. …I was wrong! Krejci has also, somehow, ended up playing the same 18 to 22-minute rotation as Risacher did previously since going to the starting lineup…which was usually less minutes than when Krejci was coming off the bench.

I don’t understand Snyder’s rotation at times. We saw more minutes for Keaton Wallace in the first half in a lineup that fell completely flat, and for some inexplicable reason in a 40-point blowout, Johnson and Okongwu both played half of the fourth quarter, while Alexander-Walker played over four minutes… It is a 40-point blowout and it’s pretty clear the Hawks are tired. Baffling from Snyder there.

I don’t want to take too much away from the Celtics’ performance — they were excellent from start to finish. The Hawks obviously played their part in Sam Hauser igniting just leaving him open/losing track of him, but Hauser hit shots, hit more difficult shots, and completely torched Atlanta.

Brown was excellent and picked his spots really well in the second quarter to drive home the great work that Hauser, Derrick White, and Simons had done while he was on the bench. The Celtics worked hard and moved well defensively; it was difficult for the Hawks to get inside and break down the defense. Boston’s bigs really did a good job of shifting — Queta and Luka Garza I thought was really good in this department too. Jordan Walsh was strong defensively, and Hugo Gonzalez (a player I really liked ahead of the draft for a team exactly like Boston) provided a great spark off the bench.

From the Hawks’ side of things, I’d burn the tape from this game if I knew I’d have to inevitably sit through and analyze this game, because it was a very rough watch in the second quarter. Some of it can be attributed to a lack of practice and opportunity to get the new guys better integrated (this was asked and discussed postgame with Snyder, McCollum, and Kispert), and coming off of a road trip, sure, the first game back can be difficult. But these are not adequate enough excuses to be down 30 points in the first half, concede a 52-point quarter, and fall 40 points behind, and the players would be the first to admit that.

Snyder does see the positives and is taking a more optimistic view of the situation, but reinforces the ‘habitual’ principles that are not always being followed.

“I don’t want to get into ‘the sky is falling,’” said Snyder. “We played well against Golden State and won. We played a Laker team that played one of their best games, we were right there against Portland and had a horrible stretch and lost the game. Tonight, we were bad. This adversity is something we’ve got to use. Formulaically, that’s the good thing. There are things that we know if we do, we’ll be better. That means running, that means playing with the pass, that means getting in the paint and having our eyes out. All those things that when we’re playing well and we’re efficient, offensively, that’s what we’re doing. And the same thing defensively. Those are thing that we all agree on are absolutes that we have to do consistently to be good. We’ve got to commit to that because some of them aren’t habitual right now.”

The Hawks (20-24) are back in action on Monday afternoon for their annual MLK Day game, facing a Milwaukee Bucks team (17-24) who are gunning for the final play-in spot that the Hawks currently possess.

Until next time!

Wolves v Newcastle United: Premier League – live

⚽ Premier League updates from the 2pm GMT kick-off
Live scores | Tables | Follow us on Bluesky | Mail John

1 min: Sandro Tonali takes the ball deep as Newcastle attempt to pass their way through. Harvey Barnes gets an early touch from a Woltemade layoff. Good energy from the home fans. How long will that last?

Here’s Jeff Beck’s Hi Ho Silver Lining, with the Led Zep medley you will always hear in pre-match at Molineux.

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Venus Williams sets Australian Open record at age of 45 but falters with win in sight

  • American becomes oldest singles player at tournament

  • Williams led 0-4 in deciding set before stumbling

Venus Williams set a record just by starting her first-round match at the Australian Open, a testament to her endurance and longevity at the highest level of tennis.

Up two service breaks at 4-0 in the third set on Sunday, she was within sight of victory too. But Olga Danilovic had other ideas, rallying to win six straight games and beat the American 6-7, 6-3, 6-4. Williams served for just shy of 15 minutes in the penultimate game, determined to stay in the match before she finally succumbed to a third break point.

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Magic vs Grizzlies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s NBA Game

The Orlando Magic look to sweep their two-game Euro set with a win over the Memphis Grizzlies this afternoon from O2 Arena in London.

The Grizzlies could have Ja Morant back in the lineup, but my Grizzlies vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks have Orlando finishing off its European excursion with a win.

Magic vs Grizzlies prediction

Magic vs Grizzlies best bet: Magic -3.5 (-115)

This Orlando Magic frontcourt set the tone against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday, crushing Memphis on the boards (+17) and snagging 19 offensive boards, while converting 16 turnovers into 24 points and dominating the paint 50-38.

Memphis, meanwhile, staggered to its seventh loss in the last nine games, and it's having a hard time defending the basket, allowing 122.1 points per game in those losses.

The good news for the Grizz is that star guard Ja Morant (calf) is listed as probable after missing six straight games. His 19 points and 7.6 assist averages would be much welcomed for a team that’s 21st in scoring at 114.8 points per game.

One thing Morant won’t be able to do is handle all that interior heft for the Magic, who rank in basketball’s Top 5 in points in the paint, averaging 54.2 points.

With the win in Berlin, Orlando improved to 4-2 ATS against Memphis in the last six head-to-head matchups. Even with Morant back in the lineup, I don’t see how the star pairing of Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero squanders this opportunity to end their Euro trip with a win.

Magic vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Paolo Banchero has been on fire of late, including dropping 26 on Memphis last time out and scoring 23+ points in five of his last seven games.

Meanwhile, Franz Wagner played great in his return to the lineup. Forget shaking the rust, he’s picking up right where he left off: not including the game where he got hurt, Wagner had scored at least 18 points in 21 of his previous 23 games played.

Magic vs Grizzlies SGP

  • Magic -3.5
  • Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 points
  • Franz Wagner Over 17.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Oh, oh, oh... It's Magic!

If Morant does play, the Grizzlies will be monitoring him closely. I don’t think he’ll get a ton of minutes, which should eat into his production. Also, before getting hurt, Ja had scored 19+ points just three times in his last nine games.

And we’re taking the Under for Wendell Carter’s rebounding line. He's pulled down eight boards just once in his last four games.

Magic vs Grizzlies SGP

  • Magic -3.5
  • Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 points
  • Franz Wagner Over 17.5 points
  • Ja Morant Under 18.5 points
  • Wendell Carter Jr. Under 7.5 rebounds

Magic vs Grizzlies odds

  • Spread: Magic -3.5 | Grizzlies +3.5
  • Moneyline: Magic -165 | Grizzlies +140
  • Over/Under: Over 231 | Under 231

Magic vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Grizzlies have lost 24 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Grizzlies.

How to watch Magic vs Grizzlies

LocationThe O2 Arena, London, England
DateSunday, January 18, 2026
Tip-off12:00 p.m. ET
TVPrime Video

Magic vs Grizzlies latest injuries

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Mets Morning News: Belli, Belli, Bo-Belli

Meet the Mets

With Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette both off the board, Cody Bellinger is still potentially in the cards for both the Mets and Yankees, with the Mets still needing an outfielder and the Yankees needing protection for Aaron Judge in the lineup.

Max Goodman of NJ.com runs down a list of five possible targets for the Mets after the Bo Bichette signing—a list which includes Bellinger.

Travis Sawchik of MLB.com explores the best fit for Framber Valdez between the Mets, Orioles, Giants, and Cubs—all of the teams that have been connected to the top remaining free agent starter—when considering rotation depth, ballpark, and the fact that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Around the National League East

Mike Petriello of MLB.com looks into whether Bryce Harper can be elite again in 2026.

The Nationals signed righty Trevor Gott to a minor league contract yesterday.

Around Major League Baseball

Reds star Elly De La Cruz turned down an extension offer from the Reds last spring that would have been the largest contract offer in franchise history, eclipsing Joey Votto’s ten-year, $225 million deal from 2012.

Speaking of the Reds, they are reportedly receiving trade interest in their starting pitchers.

After 13 seasons as an MLB reliever, Ryan Pressly has announced his retirement.

For The Athletic, Chad Jennings and Stephen J. Nesbitt take a look back through sports history to try to find precedent for the dynasty the Dodgers are currently building.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 2018, the Mets formally announced the signing of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. It ended up being his last major league season.

Shane Lowry chips into water at 72nd hole to blow lead as Elvira wins in Dubai

  • Nacho Elvira takes advantage for Dubai Invitational title

  • Rory McIlroy finishes in tie for third after final-day drama

Shane Lowry blew a one-shot lead on the last hole as Nacho Elvira recovered to claim victory in a dramatic finish to the Dubai Invitational.

Lowry, who had started the final round in a tie for second, two strokes behind the Spaniard, barged into the lead after a birdie on the 15th and appeared to have the title at his mercy. But the Irishman found both bunker and water on the 18th, finishing with a double bogey that shattered his hopes and allowed Elvira, who had struggled early in the round, to duly par the 18th for victory.

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Dodgers unlikely to trade Teoscar Hernández

The Dodgers have been fairly quiet this offseason compared to the last two, but when they have struck, the bounty has been plentiful.

After bringing back Miguel Rojas for the final season of his big league career, the Dodgers shored up their bullpen by bringing in Edwin Díaz to a three-year deal worth $69 million. After a month of wondering where star free agents like Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger or Bo Bichette would sign, the Dodgers stunned the baseball world by agreeing to a four-year, $240 million deal with Tucker, making him the highest paid outfielder per annual average value in baseball history.

Tucker is now slated to be the team’s primary right fielder, sliding Teoscar Hernández back to left field where he primarily played during the 2024 season. Hernández was previously involved in trade rumors during the winter meetings, as the Kansas City Royals expressed interest in him, but the Dodgers are reportedly unlikely to deal him away, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Dodgers are more likely to consider deals for either outfielder Ryan Ward or pitcher Bobby Miller.

Fresh off their stunning signing of free-agent right fielder Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are expected to keep Teoscar Hernández and move him to left field. As reported previously, Hernández’s name has surfaced in trade conversations. The Dodgers, however, are more likely to explore deals for outfielder Ryan Ward, a career minor leaguer who last season was MVP of the Pacific Coast League at 27, or right-hander Bobby Miller, who has been a disappointment.

Links

Alongside the Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Kyle Tucker were the New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets reportedly offered a similar short-term deal for Tucker reported at four years for $220 million that included a $75 million signing bonus with no deferrals, while the Blue Jays were the only team of the three to go for a long-term deal, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeting that the deal was for 10 years for $350 million.

On the surface, Kyle Tucker didn’t have quite the success at home with the Chicago Cubs than he did away from Wrigley Field. In reality, his home and road split divergence was mostly due to a fractured hand that tanked his second half numbers at the plate, but it doesn’t help that Wrigley Field isn’t so friendly to hitters, ranking 26th in park factor. Mike Petriello of MLB.com examines how the move to a more hitter-friendly environment in Dodger Stadium (along with the hopes of him staying healthy) could help Tucker put up similar offensive numbers he had with the Houston Astros.

Chad Jennings and Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic compare the Kyle Tucker signing to other notable moves across sports where a star player joined a defending champion, such as Kevin Durant’s heavily maligned move to join the Golden State Warriors.

The baseball economy has reached a breaking point

On Thursday, news broke that Kyle Tucker, the top free agent in this year’s market, signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tucker’s massive contract — the second-largest by average annual value in MLB history — gets added to a cadre of other gigantic free-agent deals the team is currently paying for:

  • Shohei Ohtani: 10 years, $700m (through 2034)
  • Blake Snell: five years, $182m (2031)
  • Mookie Betts: 12 years, $365m (2032)
  • Tyler Glasnow: five years, $136.5m (2029)
  • Yoshinobu Yamaoto: 12 years, $325m (2035)
  • Freddie Freeman: six years, $162m (2027)
  • Edwin Díaz: three years, $69m (2028)
  • Teoscar Hernández: three years, $66m (2028)
  • Tanner Scott: four years, $72m (2028)
  • Tommy Edman: five years, $74m (2030)
  • Will Smith: 10 years, $140m (2033)

In 2026, the Dodgers will also pay Max Muncy $10 million and the nearly unusable Blake Treinen $13.5 million. Spotrac has the Dodgers’ 2026 payroll at $413,597,413, which will add a luxury tax penalty of just over $160 million, which means that the Dodgers will be paying somewhere in the neighborhood of $575 million for their roster in 2026, at least as far as the bookkeeping goes (Ohtani, for example, will get paid $2 million in 2026 to play for the Dodgers and $68 million sometime after he is retired; for luxury tax purposes, his contract counts as about $46 million in 2026). The total amount of money they have committed is over $2 billion.

Frankly, this is absurd.

The second-most expensive roster in baseball is the New York Mets, who come in with a pre-tax payroll of about $360 million. The Phillies and Blue Jays are at $325 million and $312 million, respectively, and five other teams (the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Braves, and Cubs) fall between $250 and $300 milliion. As of this moment, half the league has a payroll under $200 million, or less than 47% of the Dodgers’ pre-tax payroll. When you factor in the luxury tax, only the Mets are within even 80% of what the Dodgers are spending. And 22 of the league’s 30 teams would be spending less than half of what the Dodgers are.

The Milwaukee Brewers, with a current estimated total payroll via Spotrac of $155.5 million, will barely spend a quarter of what the Dodgers will, and will spend less on their entire team than the Dodgers will pay in luxury tax. These two teams met in the National League Championship Series last season.

I’m not really here to talk about how unfair it is that the Brewers could realistically only afford to pay one or two contracts like the 12 that the Dodgers currently have on their roster — and simply could not afford several of them, no matter the circumstances. I’m not really here to bemoan the fact that the Brewers aren’t stretching their budget a little further; while I might have one or two complaints, what, realistically, should they do? The Tuckers, Alex Bregmans, and Bo Bichettes of the world simply are not going to play in Milwaukee. There are enough teams in “more desirable” cities that would merely need to match the Brewers’ offer — which they could, easily, without stressing their overall payroll in the same way that Milwaukee would have to — that those players would simply go somewhere else, no matter how good the Brewers are. Needless to say, Milwaukee is not going to be a destination for a player like Ohtani, no matter how good they are and how much money they could offer.

I don’t blame the players for this. I don’t really even blame the Dodgers for this: they have the money for Tucker even though they don’t really need him. Why not spend it?

No, I’m writing this because, while there are arguments to be made that certain small-market clubs should be spending more money and some mega-wealthy owners should invest more of their own cash into their teams, the simple fact is that baseball has reached an untenable place.

For what it’s worth, I do not believe the Brewers are cheap. They’ve done an excellent job investing in infrastructure and player development, and while they’re in the league’s smallest market, they have a bigger payroll than 11 other teams at the moment. The numbers are a little tricky to track down, but by net worth, Mark Attanasio — while mega wealthy — ranks near the bottom of the league (27th among 30 by most estimates). Frankly, he’s done an excellent job getting results on the field, given the market he’s working in and the resources available to him.

The problem here is that the wealthiest owners in the sport keep getting wealthier. The Dodgers and Blue Jays, for example, are effectively governed not by “owners” but by conglomerates that are worth tens of billions of dollars. How is a team like the Brewers supposed to compete with that?

This will all come to a head after next season, when baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires. It is almost a guarantee that there will be a lockout; whether that extends into the beginning of the 2027 season will be the biggest storyline of next offseason.

But the first battle that will happen in 2027 is not going to be between the owners and the players, but between the owners like Attanasio and the ownership groups like Guggenheim Baseball Management and Rogers Communications. Essentially, what’s going to happen is that most of the teams in the league are going to argue that baseball needs far more revenue sharing and limits on how much money the wealthiest teams can spend. The wealthiest — and most powerful — owners are going to fight tooth and nail to avoid this outcome. (Interestingly, the teams arguing for more revenue sharing, or at least on salary limitations, will likely include the New York Yankees, the traditional “evil empire.”)

We keep hearing about a salary cap and how ownership is going to push for that as a solution to limiting salaries. If they’re smart, the owners will come up with a slyer way of presenting this option; the term ‘salary cap’ is politically charged in baseball labor history and is thus something that the players will probably absolutely refuse under all circumstances.

Ownership should look to the NBA for inspiration, in more than one way. In 2023, the league snuck what was essentially a hard salary cap by the players in the latest CBA, but instead of calling it a “hard cap,” they called it “tax aprons.” The penalties levied on teams for exceeding these aprons, which include severe restrictions on roster flexibility in addition to financial penalties, function essentially as a hard cap. But they didn’t call it that, so players were more open to it, and it seems like the effectiveness of these tax aprons was perhaps underestimated (probably by both sides).

Personally, I’d like to see baseball go to a flexible cap system more like the NBA used prior to the last labor negotiation — I think this type of system can benefit both the best players, who can still make massive amounts of money, and younger players, who reach a version of free agency more quickly (they become restricted free agents after four years) than their counterparts in baseball (unrestricted after six years). The “max contract” system also naturally limits how many huge contracts a single team can have at a time, and the accompanying salary floor required in this system means that every team in the NBA can — and often does — have max contracts. The Cleveland Cavaliers currently have three players on max contracts, more than the Los Angeles Lakers do.

Beyond that, the league can push for more revenue sharing, but I think the roster restrictions will be the key to creating real change. What if, for example, teams who exceed a certain luxury-tax threshold aren’t allowed to trade more than one prospect at a time, making it harder for them to get in on bidding for players available in trades without giving up their most precious assets?

What’s the downside of sticking with the current system? People can complain all they want about how poorer owners should spend more or sell, but the gap is widening. Many fans already believe that the league is unfair. The Dodgers have won three of the last six World Series and keep adding the best players in the league. The worst case is that fan sentiment turns to the point that fans of smaller teams just lose interest. If fans of the Cleveland Guardians or Miami Marlins figure they have absolutely no shot, what’s to keep them interested?

I’ve felt this way at times this offseason. The Brewers, for example, could really have used Bichette, who is, what, like the 85th best player in the league? But at no point did I think it was remotely plausible that the Brewers would sign him, nor did I think it would’ve been the right move, given how it might’ve caused tough financial decisions down the line. He ended up with a contract worth $42 million a year, 75% more than the Brewers have ever paid a player in a single season.

The other thing that I feel has already started to happen is that MLB will evolve into what we already see in European soccer. Take, for example, the Premier League: there are extremely unpopular and convoluted rules in place about who can spend what — in the most basic sense, it’s ostensibly to prevent teams from spending more than they can afford, but it’s an inequitable system that heavily favors the teams who were already rich when the rules went into place. As a result, the same teams consistently dominate the top European leagues. In some cases, like in England, it’s a group of teams — the “Big Six,” as they’re called there. It’s even worse in the other, slightly less popular leagues — Bayern Munich has won the German Bundesliga in 13 of the last 14 years, and just this week set the league record for points at the halfway mark of the season. The last time a team other than Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Atlético Madrid won the Spanish league championship was in 2004.

While the playoff system will ensure that surprises happen in baseball, this isn’t where MLB is headed — it’s where they already are. The Dodgers might not win the league every year, but they will be right there every year, and the smaller-market teams that are left adrift — the Rockies, the Pirates, the Reds, etc. — will just fall further and further behind, only occasionally making leaps into relevancy, crossing their fingers that the chips fall their way just once. It’s where we are right now as Brewers fans.

Milwaukee has done an excellent job keeping pace thus far, but they cannot pull this off forever. The playing field needs to be leveled, at least a little bit, or the league risks losing huge portions of its fanbase. People like to feel like they have a fair shot.

Baseball has never exactly been a league that thrived on competitive balance; between 1936 and 1962, for example, the Yankees won 16 of 27 World Series, including separate stretches of four and five in a row. And one could argue that there’s nothing more quintessentially American than baseball, jazz music, and a rapidly widening wealth gap in which hyper-capitalists dominate those with fewer resources.

But the league and its players need to understand that the Dodgers being this far ahead of the field is not good for the game. I’m not saying there shouldn’t be a top dog — that can be good for the game in its own way — but in the last three years, the gap between the top of the league and the bottom of the league has grown from what was already a chasm into the Mariana Trench.

I certainly hope that we don’t miss any games in 2027, spring training or otherwise. I’m not optimistic. People at this level of wealth think that they should never have to settle for anything other than exactly what they want, and we live in an adversarial time. Missing games would be another huge mistake. The best thing is for everyone to admit that something needs to change and come up with reasonable, intelligent solutions that make fans of the poorer teams feel like they have a chance.

Should be easy, right?

How AJ Hinch leveraged his roster to propel the Tigers in 2025

One hallmark of the AJ Hinch-era Detroit Tigers, especially with Scott Harris in charge, has been flexibility. On a roster without many stars, Hinch’s job has been to maximize the value of each player. This takes different forms for each facet of the game. On the position player side, it usually means defensive versatility – eight Tigers played at least two positions at some point last season – pinch hitting for any potential edge, and a general trend favoring the platoon advantage.

Today, I’m going to take a look at how Hinch attempted to control the game with his offensive strategies. To do so, I’ll be comparing how often he puts his players in the best position to succeed and how well they do once they get into these advantageous situations. Spoiler alert: he’s very good at it.

Let’s start with pinch-hitting. This is the part of a game the manager can most obviously exert his control. The eye test says Hinch loves to pinch hit, often to our collective outrage. Let Kerry Carpenter hit! What do you mean Trey Sweeney is hitting for Javy Baez against a right-handed reliever? Taking a step back, though, shows Hinch frequently used his weapons at the best time and situations. Here’s a table showing both how often teams used pinch-hitters, and also how well they did, sorted by wRC+.

Team NamePH PAsPH wRC+
WSN85131
MIN104129
BAL92119
SFG97117
ATH117109
TOR156107
DET209106
MIA162102
COL117102
LAA101101
NYY10798
STL7791
ATL10788
LAD12184
CHC11183
LEAGUE AVERAGE12481
NYM10880
PIT10578
TEX16877
SEA16674
ARI12873
PHI9571
KCR13168
SDP14860
CIN11060
MIL13656
HOU12354
CLE16853
BOS11649
TBR10141
CHW15016

Here’s what stands out from that table. Firstly, the Tigers lapped the field in pinch hitting plate appearances. I sorted by success because that’s important too, but Detroit was first in plate appearances for pinch hitters. Their 41-PA lead on Cleveland and Texas is roughly the same as the gap between Cleveland/Texas and Arizona in 12th. Put differently, the Tigers pinch-hit about 80% more than a league average team.

Fortunately, those weren’t wasted plate appearances. Detroit’s collective wRC+ of 106 ranked 7th overall, but that’s not the whole story. Only one of the six teams ahead of them, Toronto, used an above-average amount of pinch hitters. Essentially, the Tigers pinch hit more than any team and got better results than all but one team who came close to matching their frequency. Teams like Washington might have done a bit better, but by using less than half the plate appearances as Detroit, it impacted far fewer games.

Interestingly, there’s pretty limited connection between overall team quality and pinch-hitting frequency. The Phillies and Yankees are the only top 10 offenses with a far below average number of pinch hitters, while Seattle and Toronto are in the top 10 for both team wRC+ and pinch hitting PAs. There isn’t a painstakingly obvious trend that says good teams should or shouldn’t pinch hit; it’s a personnel decision that Detroit has decided to go against the grain to lean into.

Conventional wisdom says pinch-hitting is generally a poor idea. The “pinch-hit penalty” is pretty widely accepted. Last year, the league-average pinch hitter posted an 81 wRC+ last year, about the same as Matt Vierling or Andy Ibanez. Managers know this, and yet Hinch intentionally embraced pinch-hitting in 2025.

Clearly, Detroit thinks they’ve found an advantage here. With both intentional roster building decisions and Hinch’s generally hands-on managing tendencies, Detroit has created an outlier. It seems likely that Hinch is driving this shift for Detroit, since he’s ultimately responsible for deciding who plays when and where and for preparing his players to impact the game. By making this a fundamental part of his team strategy, players know their role and players on the bench anticipate getting into the game rather than just sitting on the bench until their name is called. It’s a small area to have a large advantage in, but consistently timely results from pinch hitting can skew more games than a typical 200-PA sample would suggest.

Another element of offensive optimization is the platoon advantage. There’s a lot of overlap here with pinch hitting, because most pinch hitters will enter to obtain the platoon advantage, but consistently getting the platoon edge goes far beyond pinch hitting. Here again we see Hinch’s Tigers prioritizing this strategy. Let’s check a similar table as before, but with the platoon advantage replacing pinch hitting.

Team NameTotal Platoon PAsPlatoon wRC+
CHC3316122
ATH2773120
NYY3644119
LAD3376118
NYM3605117
MIL3309116
SEA3926116
ARI4115115
DET3630114
PHI3227112
BOS3365112
TOR3256109
LEAGUE AVERAGE3327108
STL2877106
ATL3527104
SDP3039103
WSN3857102
BAL3533101
MIA3503100
TBR3680100
SFG311398
MIN332597
CIN312897
CLE466796
CHW345696
HOU214595
TEX335094
LAA229593
PIT311291
KCR302391
COL263681

As with pinch hitting, the Tigers are one of few teams to be in the top-10 for both platoon-advantage PAs and performance. Using the platoon advantage, though, seems like a better understood strategy than pinch hitting, though. Team performance is clustered pretty tightly around average, unlike for pinch hitting. There also seems to be a much stronger relationship between team success and how well they do with the platoon advantage, which makes sense. An ambitious manager can get the platoon advantage in something like 4000 plate appearances, rather than 200 for pinch hitters. This means Hinch stands out less, but still compare favorably to the rest of the league when it comes to leveraging the platoon advantage for his hitters.

Neither of these stats is the end-all, be-all, of course. Both have some flaws or overall codependency with other, more important, variables. It’s difficult to distinguish which managers get the most plate appearances to batters with the platoon advantage from managers who have lots of switch hitters, for starters, and the best offenses get more plate appearances in basically any situation by way of making outs less frequently. Still, it’s better to be good at these than not, and the way Hinch has separated the Tigers from the rest of the pack is particularly notable. It’s particularly crucial for a team with a deep roster of average or better hitters, but little in the way of true star power on the offensive side.

When considering his success with both pinch-hitting and platoons and with the frequently-covered, highly-aggressive baserunning the Tigers have exhibited lately, it’s clear Hinch is doing his best to maximize every player on his roster. For the Tigers to bounce back from a disappointing second half with a similar roster, he’ll need to continue getting more out of his players than anyone expects. Look for continued aggression with the flexible parts of his roster, and hope for continued success, as Detroit tries to win its first division title of the decade.

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Cubs Convention, Bregman, Cabrera, Hoerner, Shaw.

Matt Shaw says he has spent a good deal of time in the outfield in college and he’s up for the challenge of being a supersub. I’m not going to discourage him. Nico Hoerner opined that it was a good thing to have a quality player as a sub, and that time off isn’t a Bad Thing. Nico is a ballplayer — right now he’s the face of the Cubs, and that’s the attitude fans want to see.

I think, in the end, that it really was Kyle Tucker’s approach that doomed him in Chicago. He wasn’t seen to be giving it his all. Whether that perception is accurate, I don’t know. But it is real. Ian Happ has suffered some from a similar perception despite his propensity for flinging his body about with abandon.

Anyway. ‘King Kyle’ is planning on winning a ring. The Dodgers have already meatloafed — they’re eyeing a threepeat. That would even them up with the Oakland Athletics (1972-74), and the Yankees (1998-2000), who also have skeins of four (1936-39) and five (1949-53) consecutive wins. The Cubs are among the handful of teams that have repeated.

The Phillies, Mets, the Cubs, and possibly the Brewers will have something to say about that. Others could surprise, but then they would have to. The Blue Jays, Mariners, and possibly the Red Sox will have words.

But it would surprise exactly nobody if the Dodgers won.

Saturday, the Cubs convention was in full swing. We’ll have another stacked playlist. Congratulations to Jon Lester, Jody Davis, and the late Vince Lloyd, who talked to me from the radio and TV quite a bit when I was small. And good luck to Da Bears, who play tonight at Soldier Field.

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Today’s playlist.

Food For Thought:

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Elvira pounces on final-hole errors by McIlroy and Lowry to win Dubai Invitational

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Nacho Elvira benefitted from dramatic final-hole mishaps by Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry to win the Dubai Invitational by one shot on Sunday, securing his third title on the European tour.

The 190th-ranked Elvira did what the two Ryder Cup stars couldn’t and kept out of the trouble down No. 18, making a stress-free par and shooting 69 to finish on 10 under in the first tournament of 2026.

A few minutes earlier, Lowry had been on that number heading down the last but found the greenside bunker from his approach, then water from the sand. He made a double-bogey 6 for a round of 69 and wound up two strokes back.

Before that, McIlroy arrived at the 18th tee a shot behind Lowry but pushed his drive way right into the rough, sent his approach into the bunker, and couldn’t get up and down. McIlroy and Lowry were tied for third place.

Daniel Hillier of New Zealand shot 65 and was alone in second place on 9 under.

“It means the world,” said Elvira, whose wife and children ran onto the green to celebrate with the 38-year-old Spaniard. “You tell me on Tuesday I would be winning this, I’d never believe you.

“Anything that happens after this, nothing can compare.”

Elvira started the final round in the lead and held a three-shot advantage on 11 under after making birdie at No. 7. Then came back-to-back bogeys from No. 8 before he saved par at the par-5 No. 10 after hitting into water off his second shot, keeping him in touch with Lowry, McIlroy and a crowd of challengers.

Around an hour before the finish, five players — Hillier, McIlroy, Lowry, Marcus Armitage and Elvira — shared the lead on 9 under before Lowry rolled in a 30-footer for birdie at No. 15 to take the solo lead. He couldn’t hang on.

Lowry was seeking a first European tour title since September 2022 and a first win anywhere since capturing a team victory with close friend McIlroy at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April 2024.

McIlroy has won plenty since then — including the Masters last year to complete the career Grand Slam — and looked like starting 2026 with another victory after making five straight birdies from No. 9 to take a share of the lead.

He played the final five holes in 1 over, however.

“I wasn’t really focused on winning the tournament,” the No. 2-ranked McIlroy said. "I was just trying to piece it together and make some good swings and try to hit a few more fairways, which I did for the most part. Would have been nice to hit the fairway at the last to give myself a chance for birdie there.

“Overall it was a good first week back. I felt like I learned a lot of stuff about my game. I wasn’t very sharp, but hopefully I’m a little bit sharper going into next week than I was going into this week.”

The European tour isn't travelling far for its next event — about a half-hour drive up the coastline to the Dubai Desert Classic at Emirates Golf Club starting Thursday.

___

AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

A needed win at Madison Square Garden steadies the Suns

I would not label any game in mid January as a must-win, especially given what the Suns have already done to put themselves in this position. But in the context of this road trip, part of a six-game stretch that started 0-2, a win in New York at Madison Square Garden was badly needed. Not a must-win. A needed one.

You can start with the bench. They flipped this game. Phoenix outscored New York 39-14 from the bench, and after the Knicks ripped off a 16-0 run in the third quarter, it was the second unit that calmed everything down. When Ryan Dunn, Jordan Goodwin, and Oso Ighodaro checked in, the energy shifted immediately. The game tilted back.

It is also worth noting the context. The Knicks entered the night with the third-best offensive rating in the league at 119.8. The Suns held them to 99 points. New York also came in as one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA, and they kept firing anyway. It caught up with them. They went 1-of-11 from deep in the fourth quarter.

Credit the Suns’ defense. 9 steals. 17 forced turnovers. Relentless pressure. That effort completed the sweep of the Knicks this season, as Phoenix has now beaten them twice. Sometimes you do not need style points. You need a win that reminds you who you are. This one did exactly that.

Bright Side Baller Season Standings

Back-to-back BSB’s for the Gray Suns, Grayson!

Bright Side Baller Nominees

Game 42 against the Knicks. Here are your nominees:

Devin Booker
27 points (7-of-18, 1-of-5 3PT), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers, -3 +/-

Grayson Allen
16 points (4-of-14, 4-of-13 3PT), 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 blocks, 1 turnover, +15 +/-

Jordan Goodwin
13 points (5-of-6, 3-of-4 3PT), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, +18 +/-

Mark Williams
14 points (5-of-8, 0-of-0 3PT), 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 2 turnovers, -12 +/-

Collin Gillespie
11 points (4-of-10, 2-of-5 3PT), 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 0 blocks, 1 turnover, +8 +/-

Ryan Dunn
8 points (3-of-4, 2-of-3 3PT), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 blocks, 1 turnover, +23 +/-


I got a million ways to get it. Choose one.

Open Thread: Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards share mutual respect for one another’s game

After last night’s game, when Clutch Sports Hector Ledesma reporter asked Anthony Edwards what makes the Timberwolves play so hard against the Spurs, the “Ant-Man” responded,

“They got Wemby.”

This was the third meeting of the Spurs and Timberwolves, but only the second to include Victor Wembanyama. Wemby wasn’t available last November. Last Sunday, Minnesota came back form a 19-point deficit to steal a one-point win.

Last night, they threatened to do it again.

The Spurs lost three of the four quarters in last night’s game, but it was their 48-point second quarter —the Spurs highest since 1987 — that kept them just out of the Timberwolves reach.

In fact, the Spurs went into the locker room with a 25-point lead only to lose the third and fourth quarter, the lead and scramble to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Once the Spurs relinquished the lead, it was the back and forth between Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards that kept the fires burning. From hot shooting to the two battling each other one-on-one, their cutthroat style of play on the court and their comments regarding one another reveals mutual respect.

Wemby’s response Edwards candor,

“It’s an honor and it’s the best thing to have the best players go as hard as they can because it makes us better, it makes me better.”

Anthony Edwards scored 55-points, a career high, in their loss. Considering it was the second night of a back-to-back for Minnesota, making it a game down the stretch was impressive, though of little consolation to the team who’s been knocked out of the Western Conference Finals twice over the last two seasons.

Edwards, one of the most adept players of this generation, carried the lion’s share for the Timberwolves. Of ten players who saw time, only six scored. And Edwards, along with Jaden Daniels and Julius Randle, all played over 40 minutes apiece.

For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama led the team with 39 points, trading baskets with Edwards as the final frame was dwindling down. Fortunately, Wemby got support from all angles. From Fox and Castle’s assists to Champagnie’s rebounds, from Barnes’ timely threes to Luke Kornet’s momentum shifting block, there were highlights from all angles. But none rocked the Frost Bank Center more Keldon Johnson’s clutch three that eventually put the game in the win column.

And a game in the win column is what the Spurs will focus on for the moment. There is film left to analyze, there are edges left to smooth, but as Wembanyama stated after giving up a twenty,

“We’ve got to win no matter what.”


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Shaikin: Make starting pitchers great again? MLB isn't. This independent league will try

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, throwing during a spring training game last year, became an anomaly in 2025 with two complete games in the postseason. With so much emphasis on velocity, can starters pitch deep into games anymore? One independent league is trying to find out. (Ashley Landis / Associated Press)

The independent minor leagues are baseball’s laboratories.

Pitch clocks? The robot umpires coming to the major leagues this year? The home run derby used to settle ties, as seen in last year’s All-Star Game? All first tested in an independent league.

Some concepts are hits. Some are flops.

The experiment to watch this year is almost spiritual in nature: Can professional baseball make starting pitching great again?

Read more:Plaschke: Dodgers' ruination of baseball continues with Kyle Tucker, and it’s a beautiful thing

Baseball’s obsession with velocity has dampened the soul of the sport. The marquee pitching matchup is an endangered species. The oohs and aahs over a 100-mph pitch have been replaced by yawns.

The potential solution, or at least a piece of one, is evident in this job description:

The United Shore Professional Baseball League (USPBL), an independent league based in Michigan, is recruiting for the position of “primary starting pitcher.”

The language is intentional. In today’s major leagues, a starting pitcher generally is selected, trained and deployed to throw as hard as he can for as long as he can. Five innings is perfectly acceptable, with a parade of harder-throwing reinforcements in the bullpen.

What the USPBL plans for a primary starting pitcher: “Build the ability to pitch deep into games.”

That used to be self-evident for a starting pitcher, but no longer. Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned into Sandy Koufax last October, with back-to-back complete games during the Dodgers’ championship run.

However, in the regular season, the Dodgers did not throw a complete game, and neither did 12 other teams. The Dodgers’ starters averaged 4.85 innings per game; no team averaged even six innings.

In 2025, three major league pitchers threw 200 innings. In 2010, 45 did.

Read more:Dodgers' scorching offseason continues by landing star outfielder Kyle Tucker

“Being able to get more Mark Buehrles or Cliff Lees back into the fold would be good for the game,” said Justin Orenduff, a 2004 Dodgers first-round draft pick and now the USPBL executive director of baseball strategy and development.

Buehrle, a five-time All-Star, and Lee, a four-time All-Star, each featured precision rather than power.

Lee, twice a Game 1 World Series starter, did not average 92 mph on his fastball but pitched 200 innings eight times. Buerhle, whose average fastball did not top 90 mph, pitched 200 innings for 14 consecutive years.

Neither might be drafted today. Major league teams crave velocity, and young pitchers train to boost it. The number of players throwing at least 95 mph at the Perfect Game national showcase increased sevenfold from 2014 to 2024, according to a report from Major League Baseball.

The average MLB fastball rose from 91 mph in 2008 to 94 mph in 2024, the report said.

“Velocity is the No. 1 predictor of success,” Billy Eppler, then the Angels’ general manager, told me in 2018.

Velocity also is associated with an increased risk of injury. Teams have implemented well-intentioned measures — pitch counts, innings limits, more rest between appearances — that have not mitigated the risks and might well have led to more injuries.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga prepares to pitch in the bullpen
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga prepares to pitch in the bullpen (Ashley Landis / Associated Press)

Kyle Boddy, the founder of Driveline, the seminal program for velocity training, said a hard-throwing pitcher is not going to manage his velocity on an inflexible pitch count.

“If he goes 60 or 70 pitches, he’s going to sit 100,” Boddy told Baseball America. “He’s not stupid. And if we tell him, ‘There’s no limits on you,’ but we keep taking him out after 70 pitches every time, he’s going to realize what’s going on.

“If he can’t control the volume, the one lever he can control is the intensity. I personally think that’s worse for his arm, going max effort for shorter stints.”

That ultimately works against developing starting pitchers capable of delivering six innings, the MLB report said.

“Modern workload management strategies — ostensibly intended to prevent overuse, protect pitcher health, and maximize pitcher effectiveness — may actually increase injury risk by allowing and even incentivizing pitchers to throw with maximum effort on every pitch,” the report said, “rather than requiring pitchers to conserve energy and pace themselves in an effort to pitch through longer outings.”

Not only does throwing harder increase the risk of injury, the MLB report said, but the resulting parade of strikeouts runs “counter to contact-oriented approaches that create more balls in play and result in the type of on-field action that fans want to see.”

In the independent Atlantic League, the league has run several years of testing on a “double hook” rule: when a team removes its starting pitcher, it loses its designated hitter. That would incentivize a major league team to use its starter for six or seven innings instead of four or five, but it would not solve the underlying problem: What if the starting pitcher cannot work six or seven innings?

That is where Orenduff and the USPBL come in.

Every general manager says he would love a rotation of five 200-inning starters, if only he could find them. They cannot offer on-the-job training in the majors, lest their team find itself at a competitive disadvantage.

In an independent league, Orenduff need not worry about that. Tough matchup with the bases loaded in the fourth inning? Third time through the order in the sixth inning? Pitch through it.

“It’s not going to be that quick pull,” he said.

This is not about leaving a starting pitcher out there to get crushed just to pitch through it. This is about shaking off the shackles of those one-size-fits-all limitations.

“You basically want to start by showing fans and the industry, for example, that 100 pitches is just a number,” he said. “It’s completely arbitrary.

“Some guys may be able to go 110, 120. We want to be able to show that the game can still produce players that are successful on the mound, most importantly, but are capable of going beyond the fifth inning and beyond 100 pitches if the expectation and the leadership and the structure are there to support it.”

The USPBL will have pretty much the same technology as major league teams do, to measure spin rates and recovery rates and every other rate. If you can maintain command and velocity, if you can get outs without max effort on every pitch, and if you can bounce back between innings and between starts, you may be able to be that primary starting pitcher.

Frankly, Orenduff says, all the velocity in the world cannot help your team if you cannot pitch.

Read more:Dodgers' scorching offseason continues by landing star outfielder Kyle Tucker

“That has to be a metric too: sustainability and availability,” he said.

He conducted a study evaluating each team’s top three pitching draft picks since 2013. With the caveats that some pitchers were traded and some prospects still are developing, Orenduff found that three in four of those top drafted pitchers never have pitched for the major league team that drafted them, at a combined cost to the 30 MLB teams of $800 million in signing bonuses.

“We just have to have some sort of proof we can help more players have longer careers by being a little more flexible in how we frame things for them,” Orenduff said.

Here’s hoping the USPBL can discover some training methods that major league teams can use. Better that than listening to a major league manager with a 13-man pitching staff say after a game that he ran out of pitchers, as we too often hear. Can you imagine what Tommy Lasorda would have to say about that?

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Phillies news: Bo Bichette, NL East, Justin Verlander

Are y’all done crashing out yet?

No? Ok, let me know what you’re done.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

MLB news: