Apr 30, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks players celebrate after game six of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Edmonton Oilers at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Kirby Lee/Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
ANAHEIM, Calif. — Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry and Chris Kreider had a goal and two assists apiece, and the Anaheim Ducks eliminated Connor McDavid and the two-time defending Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers with a 5-2 victory in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series.
Cutter Gauthier had a goal and an assist, Ryan Poehling scored the opening goal and Lukas Dostal made 25 saves in a standout performance for the upstart Ducks, who stormed to their first playoff series victory since 2017 in front of a frenzied sellout crowd.
“It was obviously just an awesome feeling to make the playoffs for all of us,” Terry said. “We knew that this series was there for us if we played the right way. Obviously, they made a push, but I’m just proud of the guys. I thought we played maturely, played hard.”
After ending a seven-year postseason absence by knocking out the powerhouse Oilers, Anaheim will face the winner of the Vegas Golden Knights’ series with the Utah Mammoth. Vegas leads 3-2 heading to Salt Lake City.
Connor Murphy and Vasily Podkolzin scored as Edmonton followed up its worst regular season since 2021 by going out in the first round for the first time since that season.
“We were an average team all year, you know?” said NHL scoring champion McDavid, who was held pointless in three of the series’ six games. “An average team with high expectations, you’re going to be disappointed. ... They played very fast, and we weren’t very fast. We’ve been searching for consistency all year, and obviously we didn’t find it here in the playoffs.”
After winning nine playoff series, playing 81 postseason games and reaching two Stanley Cup Finals in the past four years, McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers finally appeared to run out of energy and health. They had a disastrous defensive performance against the Ducks, who scored three goals in the first period of Game 6.
“They know how to play the right way, and at the end of the day, I think they were just better than us,” Draisaitl said. “We never really found what you need to find at this time of year, especially to go all the way. In my opinion, just not good enough.”
Even with 14 players making their postseason debuts, the Ducks admirably handled the pressure while winning four of the last five games against the seasoned Oilers. Carlsson had an outstanding Game 6 to cap the 21-year-old center’s strong debut playoff series, while emerging star defenseman Jackson LaCombe scored nine points and led the Ducks’ defensive efforts against McDavid and Draisaitl.
“For sure it was our best game of the series,” Ducks coach Joel Quenneville said. “Could have been our best game of the year. A lot of things went well tonight.”
In Game 6, Anaheim also got its best effort of the series from Dostal, who had the NHL’s second-worst save percentage in the postseason after getting pulled from Game 5. The Czech Olympian was sharp all night, highlighted by a breakaway stop on Zach Hyman.
Backed by a raucous crowd that included Angels slugger Mike Trout, the Ducks scored first in Game 6 for the first time in the entire series when John Carlson’s shot hit Poehling and trickled in for his fourth goal of the series.
Carlsson then set up Kreider off the rush, ending the longtime Rangers star’s 17-game goal drought with his first playoff goal for the Ducks — on his 35th birthday, no less.
Murphy answered for Edmonton 1:31 later, but Gauthier got his fourth playoff goal on a power play when his one-timer arced in off Darnell Nurse’s stick.
Late in a tense second period, Carlsson took the puck from Evan Bouchard and fed Terry for a 4-1 lead.
Edmonton scored early in the third when Kasperi Kapanen’s wide shot deflected in off Podkolzin’s leg, but McDavid and Draisaitl couldn’t get it any closer. The Oilers pulled Ingram with 3:57 left, but Carlsson scored into an empty net.
The Lakers are 10-4 SU and ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs, and the Rockets are trading at 61¢ to take this series to the brink.
Our prediction:Lakers to win
"The Rockets have rallied, but Reaves’ return in Game 5 gives L.A. an extra attacker, and he’ll look much sharper in Game 6 after shaking off the rust."
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"The Lakers will clean up their play with sharper shooting and fewer turnovers. Those miscues have gifted Houston 48 total points across the past two outings. The Rockets have capitalized on those mistakes for easy buckets, but they struggle when forced into a half-court game."
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STREAKING: The Cubs have won eight straight home games, the entire last seven-game homestand and the last game of the previous one. The last time a Cubs team won eight straight at home was Sept. 12-30, 2017. That streak was snapped when they lost to the Reds, 3-1, on the final day of the season, and all but one of their starters were lifted after one or two plate appearances. The last time any Cubs team won nine straight home games was Aug. 18-Sept. 2, 2017. The franchise record is 18, set during the team’s overall team record 21-game winning streak in 1935 (the first 18 of those 21 straight wins). (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
SCORING FIRST: The Cubs are 7-0 when they have scored first at home. They are 12-5 in all games in which they scored first. In 14 of the 17 games, they did so in the first three innings: four in the first, seven in the second and three in the third. Last year, the Cubs were 33-8 at home when they scored first and 17-23 when they did not. They won 15 straight when they scored first at home from May 5 through July 19. They had two nine-game winning streaks when they scored first on the road. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
GETTING ON BASE: The Cubs are first among all 30 teams in on-base percentage, at .353. The Diamondbacks are 27th, at .308. The only teams lower are the Phillies, .302; Giants, .293; and Mets, .289. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
HIT PREVENTION: The Cubs are tied for fifth in fewest hits allowed per nine innings, at 7.6. The Diamondbacks are tied with two teams for 25th at 9.1. The only teams worse are the Nationals, 9.2; Orioles, 9.3; and Phillies, 10.1. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Andre Dawson and Hector Villanueva homered off future Cubs broadcaster Jim Deshaies as part of a five-run first inning and the Cubs went on to defeat the Astros 11-8 at Wrigley Field. It happened 35 years ago today, Wednesday, May 1, 1991.
Colin Rea was going along just fine when the Dodgers torched him pretty good over the weekend.
That out of the way, Rea has been solid this year (and was last year, too). I don’t think one bad start erases all the good things Rea has done for the Cubs rotation.
Rea started vs. Arizona April 18, 2025 at Wrigley Field and allowed one run in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, probably on a pitch limit (threw 69 nice pitches). That was the crazy game where the D-backs scored 10 runs in the eighth but the Cubs came back and won anyway.
Ketel Marte is 4-for-6 with two homers off Rea, so it might be good to hold him down today.
Remember when Bob Nightengale said Zac Gallen was going to sign with the Cubs? According to this Awful Announcing article, here’s what happened in the Gallen household after Nightengale made that social media post:
“So I was sitting there at breakfast with my dad,” Gallen told MLBFits. “A family friend of ours came over, and he’s like, ‘Oh nice, you’re going to Chicago,’ and I was like, ‘I don’t know what you’re talking about.’ So there was a hectic kind of 20 minutes or so there. I was getting calls from family, and then from my now-wife, was like ‘We’re going to Chicago?’ I’m like, ‘No, I would let you know if we’re going to Chicago.’”
Gallen and his wife actually got married the weekend after that news broke (and un-broke), which only amplifies how wild that report must have seemed in the moment.
So that must have been fun!
Anyway, as you obviously know, Gallen re-upped with the D-backs and has had a pretty good year so far: 3.14 ERA, 1.360 WHIP in six starts. His K rate is down a bit, but otherwise he’s showing that last year was an aberration in an otherwise fine career.
The last time he faced the Cubs, April 19, 2025 at Wrigley Field, they hit him pretty hard (seven hits, six runs in six innings), including home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch.
Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. If you do go there to interact with D-backs fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.
The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.
You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.
The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.
You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 18: Jordan Walker #18 of the St. Louis Cardinals reacts with teammates after defeating the Houston Astros in the game at Daikin Park on April 18, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Jordan Walker’s first month has contained some of the highest highs any player is ever going to reach, and some familiar lows. How do we rationalize what we’ve seen so far?
We’re about one month into the baseball season for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. In the grand sweep of the season, this is but the opening line. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen thus far. But, if you’re like me and watching essentially every inning, it feels like a lot of baseball has been played. Which brings me to a thought I’ve been wrestling with for the last few games. What’s the rational way to react to Jordan Walker’s start?
Let’s go to caveat land first. He should play the whole season no matter what – this is the year to learn what he’s really got in the tank. It’s still early. We’ve seen two versions of Walker and that will likely normalize as the year goes on. He’s the same age as JJ Wetherholt and has had an odd career track up to this point. (Now, hold these residents of caveat land in your head all the way through – please and thank you!)
Through roughly 30 games, we’ve seen two versions of Jordan Walker. Let’s start with the Thanos version of him first. (Yes, I’m using Thanos positively here as a kind of destroyer-of-worlds-template in favor of the Cardinals.) From the hallowed stretch of April 4th through April 16th, Jordan Walker turned the difficulty level down to Rookie and treated the league like MLB the Show. Let’s just laugh together at some highlights: .370/.408/.848, a .478 ISO, a 246 wRC+, and 7 homers. Try to export those numbers to another country and Walker would be charged with war crimes.
He ran career lows in groundball rates, sprayed the ball all over the field, and ran a miniscule 6.5% weak contact rate. The eye test confirmed this. Every ball off his bat was a scud missile buried somewhere in the side of the wall or doing architectural damage to the stadium beyond the fence. Every single problem we wanted him to solve was solved to a Sherlock Holmes degree in this microdose of games.
It went beyond the numbers, though. Walker seemed in control at the plate. He was jumping on hittable pitches early and was patient on balls out of the zone. He didn’t seem to be lunging like Richard Simmons at every slider low and away. The defense was quite improved (still is!) and he was even stealing bases like Victor Scott II. (Or, not like Victor Scott II – yikes.) In a nutshell, it was everything that everyone who roots for the Cardinals had ever wanted for Jordan Walker. He was a national topic – Eno Sarris was buying in!
Ok, now take a deep breath. Remember, there have been two Jordan Walkers so far. From April 17th through this writing (April 29th), Jordan Walker has looked like Old Jordan Walker. As Ecclesiastes says, there is a time for dancing and a time for mourning. Let us mourn together: .216/.333/.243 (the OBP isn’t bad there!), an .027 ISO, a 78 wRC+, and one extra base hit.
It’s worse than that (do you still have you citizens from caveat land on board?), he struck out 37.8% of the time and doubled his groundball rate from his thermonuclear streak. He’s been lunging at low and away sliders like I lunge at toasted ravioli (just trust me!), and working seemingly every single count to 0-2 immediately. It’s been ugly the last couple of weeks – and it’s been ugly in a recognizable way.
So, let’s step back. What do we make of this first month? It seems to be a matter of perspective. If you told Cardinal fans at the beginning of the year that Walker would have a 151 wRC+ after the first month, they’d probably ask you how someone got ahold of Yadier Molina’s blood for ritual purposes. That’s an unqualified success – no doubt.
However, it’s more complicated than that because of the nature of his performance. He went from Aaron Judge lookalike to Old Jordan Walker all in the same month. This is where opinions are going to vary. If it scares you to see the old habits rear their heads, then you’ve got all the ammunition you need to worry. If you’re thrilled that we’ve seen Peak Jordan Walker, then you’re probably feeling good that we’ve seen what’s possible from a 23 year old.
In short, Jordan Walker is a walking Rorschach test. His ink blot can be read in either direction you’d like to read it. Obviously, as he plays more this season, that ink blot will begin to take a more definite shape that we can use to adjust our expectations.
I can’t and won’t tell you how to fan, but I will share my perspective. I’m worried. We have an enormous amount of data that tells us that Jordan Walker may never figure it out. He turned into an MVP for roughly two weeks and then reverted back. I’m not rooting against him. I’m just concerned that his body of work shows that he’s back to the approach and habits that landed him in an early career tailspin in the first place. I’d like nothing more than for Jordan Walker to develop into the cleanup hitter of the future for the Cardinals. I’m not ruling it out by any stretch. His underlying physical gifts are such that he could flip the switch at any second by refining his approach again. That’s what I want. I just don’t know if the Cardinals inkblot is going to deliver.
Let me know how you’re feeling in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!
BRIDGEWATER, N.J. — New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón struck out eight over 5 1/3 innings in his second minor league rehabilitation outing.
Rodón allowed five hits and walked none, throwing 51 of 75 pitches for strikes with Double-A Somerset against the Portland Sea Dogs, a Boston Red Sox affiliate in the Eastern League.
Miguel Bleis homered leading off the fifth, the only run Rodón permitted in the Patriots’ 9-6 win.
The 33-year-old left-hander opened the season on the 15-day injured list as he recovers from surgery last Oct. 15 to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and shave a bone spur. He had a setback in late March when he felt tightness in his right hamstring while throwing at the Yankees’ complex in Florida.
Rodón tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings for High-A Hudson Valley on April 24, throwing 65 pitches.
He is expected to make at least one more minor league start before rejoining New York’s rotation.
Top prospect George Lombard Jr. played his first game since his promotion from Somerset to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Lombard was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks in the RailRiders’ 5-4, 10-inning win over the Buffalo Bisons, a Toronto Blue Jays farm club. He singled, struck out, flied out and was caught stealing after he was picked off first,
The 20-year-old shortstop, who batted leadoff, is a son of former major leaguer George Lombard.
The younger Lombard hit .312 with eight doubles, four homers and 10 RBIs in 20 games with Somerset.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 20: James Harden #1 talks with Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first quarter of Game Two of the Eastern Conference First Round NBA Playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Arena on April 20, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Despite the Cleveland Cavaliers walking away from Game 5 with a 3-2 series lead, they still haven’t fully instilled confidence as a bona fide contender. In many ways, Cleveland’s wins have felt more tied to Toronto’s limitations and mistakes than the Cavaliers consistently imposing their own identity and style of basketball over extended stretches of play.
The clearest example of Cleveland playing “their brand of basketball” came in the second half of Game 5. But even that performance came with important context: Toronto was without Brandon Ingram and relying on a clearly limited Scottie Barnes.
That makes Game 6 especially important for Cleveland’s postseason outlook. The key question isn’t simply whether the Cavaliers can close out the series, but whether that second-half surge in Game 5 reflected the team discovering a sustainable level of play without Donovan Mitchell, or if it was merely the product of a compromised Toronto roster.
To Cleveland’s credit, the Eastern Conference as a whole has hardly looked dominant in the first round. Detroit has pushed Orlando to the brink, while Boston and Philadelphia are going to Game 7. Because of that, the Cavaliers still have a viable playoff path if they can establish some consistency moving forward.
A familiar frustration for Cavaliers fans is that this roster never truly had the benefit of continuity throughout the regular season. Because of injuries and lineup instability, Cleveland has essentially been forced to troubleshoot in real time during this series, experimenting with combinations deep into the postseason to determine what actually works. The challenge with postseason lineup data is that the sample sizes are so small that it becomes difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from it.
Without a reliable regular-season foundation to lean on, the Cavaliers have been adjusting game by game — and at times quarter by quarter. That’s what made the second half of Game 5 so intriguing. Cleveland leaned more heavily into interior play, trusted offensive movement, and played with a level of freedom that had largely been absent earlier in the series.
When the Cavaliers avoid letting the rigidity of postseason basketball hijack the natural flow of their offense, they look far more dynamic. In previous seasons, there is almost no scenario where Dennis Schröder takes over a pivotal fourth quarter while Donovan Mitchell comfortably plays off the ball as more of a spectator. Likewise, Evan Mobley confidently stepping into no-hesitation threes late in a high-leverage game signals a level of offensive trust and adaptability that Cleveland has not consistently shown in past playoff runs.
There are legitimate signs of evolution and meaningful change within this team. The question now is whether that second-half breakthrough was simply a one-game solution against a depleted Raptors team, or if it can become a legitimate blueprint for how Cleveland wants to play moving forward.
That’s why so much weight falls on Game 6. It’s less about fearing a potential Game 7 against Toronto and more about what another loss would represent: a team that still lacks a clear understanding of itself and remains unable to consistently execute the identity it wants to play with.
CORAL GABLES - APRIL 26: Miami catcher Alex Sosa (13) runs to first base in the third inning as the Miami Hurricanes faced the Cal Golden Bears on April 26, 2026, at Mark Light Field at Alex Rodriguez Park in Coral Gables, FL. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: Miami
Mascot: Embraced Fear | School Location: Dextertown, FL | Conference: ACC
Former Miami pitcher and long-time Hurricanes assistant J.D. Arteaga, now in his third year as the head man of the program, finally seems to be figuring things out. It was a bit of a controversial move firing Gino DiMare, himself another former Hurricanes players and long-time assistant under legendary coach Jim Morris, and handing the reigns to the pitching coach under him. Things certainly didn’t start well, with Miami going from a 42-21 (18-12) record with an RPI of 15 in DiMare’s last season to a 27-30 (11-19) record with an RPI of 81 in Arteaga’s first season. Heck, DiMare won 18+ ACC games in each of his four full seasons at the helm. Arteaga’s going to need a 6-3 finish to the season to reach that mark for the first time.
So, yeah, things haven’t been that great to start with. Last year’s Miami squad got hot in April, but limped to the finish line in May and then was one-and-done in the ACC Tournament. They did make the Hattiesburg Regional and got hot there, eventually making the Louisville Super Regional where they bowed out in a one-run loss in Game 3.
The 2026 Hurricanes started the year on a 10-game winning streak before getting swept at home in a weather-shortened two-game series with Florida. The Canes then lost both of their first two ACC series, vs Boston College and at Duke, putting some heat back on Arteaga. Since the series loss to the Blue Devils, Miami has been on a heater, going 18-6 overall (10-5 in ACC play) and winning all six weekend series.
A combination of a potent offense (.303/.407/.509, 95 2B, 63 HR, 12.7 BB%, 17.9 K%, 52-66 SB) and a pitching staff (32-12, 7 SV, 4.32 ERA, 387.1 IP, 10.0 BB%, 25.9 K%) that features a strong weekend rotation and deep bullpen has allowed for this to be a formidable Hurricanes team. Some late-season injuries are taking their toll, though. Stud JR 3B Daniel Cuvet (.305/.437/.649, 14 2B, 12 HR, 17.4 BB%, 15.8 K%, 3-4 SB), a projected top three round pick in this year’s draft, is out for the remainder of the year with a stress fracture. Friday night starter SR LHP Rob Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury that may cost him his start this weekend, although he should be back for next weekend.
The team did get rSR LF Max Galvin back recently and is expected to return two bullpen arms JR RHP Nick Robert and JR LHP Frank Menendez to regular duty for the closing stretch. That’s going to make this team even stronger in postseason play.
Friday (Game 2): LHP Cooper Consiglio (JR) vs RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO)
Saturday: TBD vs LHP RobEvans (SR)
Key Players:
Offense
RF Derek Williams (rSR) – .386/.474/.752, 14 2B, 14 HR, 11.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 4-8 SB. Former transfer from Wichita State who spent his first two collegiate seasons in the JUCO ranks. Not entirely sure how he’s still eligible considering he played 43+ games in each of his four previous season, but okay. Big time pop from his righty bat, he has 78 career HR across his 244 career collegiate games.
C AlexSosa (JR) – .323/.447/.646, 14 2B, 11 HR, 16.2 BB%, 16.8 K%, 1-2 SB. Needs no introduction for NC State fans. The Florida native and former Wolfpack backstop has put together a really nice season in his draft-eligible turn. Thrown out 7-of-37 (18.9%) of attempted base stealers this year while allowing just two passed balls, both improvements over his numbers last year with the Pack (9.3% and 6, respectively).
2B Jake Ogden (SR) – .311/.389/.486, 11 2B, 5 HR, 9.9 BB%, 13.2 K%, 9-11 SB. Former UNC-Greensboro transfer who started his college ball at the D2 level with Barry University in Miami Shores. Oddly enough, the only game of his college career that he didn’t start was at Barry. Riding a five-game hitting streak during which he’s 10-for-21. Has multiple hits in six of his last nine games.
1B Brylan West (rSR) – .322/.429/.486, 9 2B, 5 HR, 11.9 BB%, 12.4 K%, 4-4 SB. Huge 6’4, 269 lbs right-hander from Tampa who spent two years in the JUCO ranks before spending the last two at Florida International where he was a 2nd Team All-CUSA pick in 2024 and a 1st Team All-CUSA pick in 2025. Hasn’t tapped into that power as much with Miami as he did with FIU (23 HR over two years), but the potential is clearly there.
LF Max Galvin (rSR) – .224/.274/.254, 2 2B, 0 HR, 6.8 BB%, 11.0 K%, 0-0 SB. Local kid who spent two years at Miami-Dade College in JUCO ball before heading to Oklahoma State in 2024 and redshirting with the Cowboys. Started 59 games last year (.310/.369/.491, 18 2B, 8 HR, 7.5 BB%, 10.6K%, 9-10 SB) but missed a month and a half earlier this year due to injury. Returned in early April and it’s been an uphill battle to get back into form, but the lefty can play.
Pitching
RHP Lazaro Collera (SO) – 3-2, 3.58 ERA, 50.1 IP, 8.0 BB%, 23.6 K%. Big 6’5, 225 pound second-year arm who only saw 17.0 innings last year, but has made a huge jump after pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. Has touched 97 with his heater before, but the slider is his real weapon. The improvement in control has allowed him to succeed as a starter. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last five starts, working into or through the 6th inning in four of those starts.
RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO) – 4-3, 3.79 ERA, 59.1 IP, 2.4 BB%, 24.0 K%. A 2025 Freshman All-American, Ciscar has excelled as the Sunday man for Miami this year. Has started all 10 of his appearances this year after making 10 starts last year. Sandwiched around a miserable start at Stanford (2.2 IP, 6 ER) two weeks ago has been a combined 14.2 IP of 1-run ball with 1 BB and 12 K against Wake and Cal. Mid-90’s heat from his 6’4 frame with a two-seam fastball that’s surprisingly tough on lefties. Also has a sweeper and a change, and controls all three pitches exceptionally well.
LHP RobEvans (SR) – 8-2, 3.05 ERA, 59.0 IP, 8.3 BB%, 28.8 K%. Has been the Friday night starter all year for Miami, but is dealing with an ankle injury so will be pushed back to the final game of the series in hopes of giving him some extra rest. There’s a good chance he doesn’t pitch this weekend. The former Georgia State transfer from Harlem, NY, sits in the low-to-mid-90’s and has a pair of breaking balls. Only pitched 15.1 innings in relief for Miami this year, but is having a standout final campaign. Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts.
RHP Lyndon Glidewell (SR) – 3-0, 2 SV, 3.38 ERA, 26.2 IP, 8.0 BB%, 35.7 K%. Former JUCO player who transferred in this year from Austin Peay. Took over the closer role in early April with Ryan Bilka struggling a bit in that capacity. Was a 2nd Team All-ASUN selection last year as a starter (8-0, 3.36 ERA, 77.2 IP, 10.1 BB%, 18.9 K%). Clearly a good move by the Miami staff to move him into a relief role as it’s allowing his stuff to play up. Over his last 8 appearances: 9.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 17 K, 1 HBP.
RHP Ryan Bilka (SR) – 2-0, 4 SV, 4.50 ERA, 26.0 IP, 15.4 BB%, 26.5 K%. Richmond transfer who spent his first two collegiate seasons at Wagner. Was a menace last year for the Spiders (6-2, 3 SV, 2.18 ERA, 62.0 IP, 5.3 BB%, 23.5 K%). Can throw up to five pitches, including a mid-90’s fastball. Started the season as the team’s closer, but struggled through early March. Control has continued to be an issue that pops up, but 10 of his last 13 outings have been scoreless.
RHP T.J. Coats (JR) – 5-2, 3.75 ERA, 36.0 IP, 8.1 BB%, 19.3 K%. Nebraska transfer who started his college ball in the JUCO ranks. After only tossing 11.1 innings for the Cornhuskers last year, he had a breakout summer in the Cape Cod League (32.2 IP, 11 BB, 40 K) and used that to hit the portal and wind up with the Hurricanes. Solid build at 6’2, 212 lbs with a low-90’s fastball, a solid slider, and a curve and change mixed in.
LHP Jake Dorn (rJR) – 5-0, 3.00 ERA, 24.0 IP, 12.6 BB%, 28.2 K%. Former JUCO transfer who is just now finding his footing after mixed results at the JUCO level, missing all of 2024 with TJS, and only tossing 13.2 IP last year for the Hurricanes. The 6’4, 235 lbs southpaw has a three-pitch mix including an upper 80’s fastball that runs in on lefties and a big loopy 12-6 curve.
Quick! Fun Facts!
Ryan Bilka pitched against NC State back in the opening series of the 2023 season, appearing in the second game (1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP). He also faced off against the Wolfpack last season when he was with Richmond, but did not appear in that game.
Jake Ogden played against NC State as a member of UNCG in 2024, going 1-for-5 with a 2B, 2 R, BB, and K in a 18-3 Spartans win.
NC State is just 1-5 in the last six meetings with Miami since the start of the 2023 season.
Alex Sosa leads Miami in WAR with 2.70, while Daniel Cuvet is second at 2.42. Rett Johnson leads NC State with 2.67 WAR, while Ty Head is second at 2.57 and Luke Nixon is a close third at 2.54.
The Key To A Series Win For State
Without Ryan Marohn for a third straight week and facing a Friday doubleheader, the key is simple: get length from starters Heath Andrews and Cooper Consiglio. The Wolfpack can ill-afford for Friday to turn into a pair of bullpen games.
Prediction
The Wolfpack are 21-7 at home this year and coming off a big run-rule win in a midweek home tilt with ECU. This is a tough matchup with a loaded Miami team that is 9-4 on the road this year. Pitching typically wins these types of series, and the Hurricanes have more of that right now.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 28: Jaylen Brown #7, Derrick White #9, and Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics look on during the third quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game Five of the First Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoff at TD Garden on April 28, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Over the last five quarters of this series, I haven’t recognized this version of the Celtics. While there have been flashes, they haven’t consistently looked like the team that got them here.
So far in these playoffs, Boston has the third-highest isolation frequency among playoff teams. For a roster built around depth and decision-making, that feels wrong. When they’re at their best, the offense starts with paint touches, forces rotations, and moves into second and third options. In this series, too many possessions have flattened out. One matchup targeted early, four teammates spaced and stationary.
Against Philadelphia, that simplifies their job defensively. The other four defenders don’t have to rotate. They can stay home, conserve energy, and stay organized. That energy shows up on the other end.
You can see it in the shot profile. The Celtics are taking 53% of their shots from three, the highest rate of any team in the playoffs, and averaging seven more attempts per game than the next closest team, Oklahoma City.
The volume isn’t new. It’s a big reason Banner 18 is hanging in TD Garden. But the way those shots are being created feels different.
Earlier in the year, those looks came after the defense had already shifted. Paint touch, kickout, extra pass. In this series, too many of them are coming earlier in the clock, without forcing that initial rotation. And even when the looks are there, they haven’t consistently fallen. Boston is shooting 41.9% on wide-open shots in the playoffs, defined as no defender within six feet.
That combination puts more heat and pressure on each individual possession.
The defensive activity isn’t there
The defensive numbers tell a similar story.
The Celtics are last among playoff teams in deflections per game, and the gap is significant. They’re averaging roughly six fewer deflections per game than Minnesota, which ranks second to last. That same six-deflection gap exists between Minnesota and Orlando, which ranks second overall in these playoffs.
During the regular season, Boston averaged 15.2 deflections per game. That level of activity disrupted actions early and forced teams into late-clock decisions. That hasn’t carried over. Without consistent pressure, Philadelphia has been able to initiate offense cleanly. Entry passes are easier. Actions start on time. The Celtics aren’t forcing the same level of hesitation.
It shows up on the perimeter as well. Boston is last in the playoffs in contested three-point attempts per game after finishing eighth in the regular season. Philadelphia has flipped that, ranking first after being middle of the pack.
Those numbers match what the possessions look like. The Sixers are closing harder and getting into bodies. The Celtics haven’t created the same level of disruption.
Game 6 showed how small edges add up
Game 6 was a series of small advantages that all leaned the same way.
Philadelphia finished with seven more shot attempts. Boston generated almost no second chances, finishing with one offensive rebound on 20 missed shots. Over the first five games, they had rebounded 37 percent of their misses. In Game 6, that dropped to five percent.
That’s a swing in possessions that’s hard to overcome.
The individual numbers reflect it, too. Derrick White finished as a minus-25. Jaylen Brown was a minus-24. I don’t look at +/- as the be-all and end-all stat, but it does indicate that these subpar stretches added up over the course of the night.
From the Celtics’ perspective, the explanation wasn’t complicated.
Payton Pritchard described the situation simply afterward, saying the momentum doesn’t carry the same weight in a Game 7 setting. “It means nothing. It’s one game,” he said. “It’s like the NCAA Tournament — gotta win one or go home. So it’s the only thing on our mind.”
Jaylen Brown echoed that framing, focusing less on what’s already happened and more on what shows up next. “Game 7 is a game amongst itself,” he said. “The rest of the series doesn’t matter. It’s gonna be who’s gonna show up on that day and be a better performing team.”
There’s also an understanding internally that the issues aren’t hard to identify.
“There’s definitely some stuff I see that I can improve,” Brown said.
Even Joe Mazzulla’s decision late in Game 6, one that drew some outside reaction, reflected the same underlying belief in the group. He pointed back to what the team has been all season. “All year we’ve had 14–15 guys be able to impact winning,” he said. “Just wanted to give the game a different look.”
That idea, that the solutions are already on the roster and already part of their identity, is consistent with what the numbers are showing.
Game 7 is about getting back to Celtics basketball
A win on Saturday won’t require the invention of a new system or a massive adjustment that goes against their true identity.
The version of the Celtics that won all year played through the paint first. They trusted the next pass. They created advantages through movement and patience. Defensively, they were active, getting hands on the ball and forcing teams out of rhythm. That version just hasn’t been consistent enough in this series.
Beautiful Celtics ball movement leads to the Luka Garza bucket, that's 51 bench points for the C's pic.twitter.com/r9xSpjcsr4
Whatever the Denver Nuggets are going to look like next season, they can't just run it back again and expect better results. After winning the NBA title in 2023, the Nuggets have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs, and on Thursday night, a shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves team eliminated them in the first round.
Whatever that team looks like, Nikola Jokic wants to be part of it. Here's his quote, via Anthony Slater of ESPN.
"I still want to be a Nugget forever."
Jokic is extension-eligible this summer. He is under contract for $59 million for next season, with a $62.8 million player option for the season after that. Jokic was directly asked if he would sign an extension this offseason. His response:
"I still want to be a Nugget forever."
Jokic averaged 25.8 points, 13.2 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game against Minnesota, nearly a triple-double. However, his 19.4% shooting from 3-point range and poor defense in the series were issues. That said, he's still a top-three player in the world, still an absolute franchise cornerstone.
Jokic's future is not in question, but a lot of other things are. Denver's moves last offseason — trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, locking up Christian Braun, bringing back Bruce Brown — combined with a healthy Jamal Murray led to the best offense in the league and a 54-win season (that's one more win than their championship season). However, for the third year in a row, regular-season success did not translate into playoff success, and the Nuggets need to address that.
A post by former Nuggets coach George Karl seemed to hit the nail on the head.
Championship windows open and close faster than ever in the NBA.
Denver's list of offseason issues starts with the fact that this team enters the summer already over the tax and first apron, and they are flirting with the second one. This is for an ownership group considered allergic to the tax (although they paid it the three seasons before this one). Along with that, the Nuggets' priorities are:
• A Jokic extension. Expect that to get done, Denver will offer the max and he will sign it. Jokic is not going anywhere.
• Re-sign Peyton Watson. He's a restricted free agent, but one the Lakers, Bulls and other teams are reportedly eyeing as someone they may try to poach. The Nuggets have the right to match any offer. That said, re-signing or matching an offer for Watson is going to be hard to do without moving above the second tax apron. There had been speculation in some circles that the Nuggets would not match a big offer from another team, but after he was clearly missed while out injured in these playoffs, can Denver afford not to match?
• Re-signing free agents. Do the Nuggets bring back Tim Hardaway Jr., who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting and was critical for them this season? Also hitting the free agent market are Bruce Brown and Spencer Jones.
• Cameron Johnson extension? Do the Nuggets want to extend the deal of the two-way wing, set to make $23.1 million next season? If so, at what number?
There are bigger picture questions, too. Aaron Gordon is critical to this team's success. How can they lighten his load to keep him healthy? How do they add depth to the roster? Is David Adelman the right long-term coach? (Note, Jokic stuck up for Addelman after the Nuggets were eliminated.) It's going to be difficult to make trades because Denver has no first-round picks it can move in a deal.
It's going to be an interesting summer in Denver. The one sure thing is that Nikola Jokic isn't going anywhere.
Start your weekend right with some MLB best bets, based on trading prices available at Polymarket (which allows fans coast-to-coast to participate in baseball action).\
Our expert MLB picks for May 1 have found value in the Jays and Cubbies winning, along with a pitcher's duel taking place in Tampa.
UPDATE: Added more best bets from the Covers Staff.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
It might be scary backing a Patrick Corbin start, but the Toronto Blue Jays have already handled Simeon Woods Richardson this year, tagging him for five runs in just 12 outs. The familiarity factor leans toward the hitters in this spot.
Toronto’s lineup is getting healthier and can make up for Corbin, who has actually looked solid, allowing just four runs over his last three starts. If this game is decided late, the edge goes to the visitors — and the league’s best bullpen over the last seven days.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced this afternoon. His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8 hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA — checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.
With the Chicago Cubs on a 12-3 heater, while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Rays Under 7.5
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
Runs should be tough to come by tonight in Tampa with a lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup featuring two lineups that have struggled against southpaws. The San Francisco Giants have been especially bad, ranking 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks.
Tampa Bay Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has been sharp at home, while Robbie Ray is back in top form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in five of his six starts.
More ammo for an Under wager: The Giants' bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last 14 days.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
DUNEDIN, FL - MARCH 02: Boston Red Sox shortstop Franklin Arias (65) walks through the dugout with his helmet and bats during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays on March 2, 2026, at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Franklin Arias went four games without hitting a home run and I was starting to get concerned. That changed in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth on Thursday night, when Arias tied the Sea Dogs game at 6-6 on a two run bomb to center.
My favorite rating on any FanGraphs page at this moment is Arias’ Game Power:
The 20 is for “present” Game Power, with 45 as “future”. This was Arias’ eighth home run of the season, in 20 games. I’d suggest that Fangraphs update that Present rating ASAP.
Unfortunately, the Patriots (NYY) walked it off in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer by Coby Morales off of reliever Cooper Adams. Starter Patrick Halligan struck out six batters, allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings.
On the hitting side, Arias and Nate Baez had two hits, and Brooks Brannon knocked in three runs.
Worcester Red Sox 4, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 1) – BOX
The Woo Sox got solid pitching from starting pitcher Alec Gamboa, who struck out six over 5 ⅔ innings in game one on Thursday, beating the Red Wings (WAS). Jack Anderson, who may be needed again in Boston once his 15-day minors clock is up, gained his first save to close down the seven-inning affair.
Matt Thaiss homered for Worcester, and Kristian Campbell was 1-for-2 with a walk, a run, and an RBI.
Worcester Red Sox 7, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 2) – BOX
The Woo Sox completed the sweep in game two, thanks to home runs from Vinny Capra and Braiden Ward, accounting for the first two runs of the ballgame off of Red Wings starter Riley “The Great” Cornelio. Anthony Seigler knocked in two runs and was on base all four times in this one.
It was more of a bullpen game for Worcester, with Devin Sweet, Angel Bastardo, and Wyatt Olds splitting the work. Bastardo picked up his second win, now throwing five shutout innings on the season.
Hub City Spartanburgers 6, Greenville Drive 2 (BOX)
First round pick a year ago Kyson Witherspoon continued to struggle in his start on Thursday against Hub City (TEX). He walked five batters and hit another in 2 ⅔ innings of work, allowing four runs as his ERA jumped to 7.13 on the season. He struck out six batters but threw just 32 strikes on 66 pitches.
The Drive had five hits on the day, with two of those coming from Justin Gonzales who was on base all five times he stepped to the plate, walking once, and being hit by two pitches. Yoeilin Cespedes continued his heater with two more hits, as well.
Salem trailed the Warbirds (MIL) 5 to 1 after six innings before the game flipped in a hurry. Two home runs from Starlyn Nunez, another from Ty Hodge, and a fourth from Luke Heyman accounted for nine unanswered runs to close the game. Nunez, Heyman, and Hodge all had three RBI on the day. Here’s the second of two bombs from Nunez:
Starlyn Nunez two-run home run.
The Boston Red Sox prospect is 3-for-4 with two homers (3) and three RBI (12) in Single-A tonight. pic.twitter.com/ZyRiRL8hoE
All three runs that starter Madinson Frias allowed were unearned, and Ethan Walker went 5 ⅓ strong innings in relief to get the win, striking out nine.
Finishing the regular season with the No. 1 seed in the East, the Pistons are trading at 61¢ to stave off elimination and force a Game 7 back in the Motor City.
Our prediction:Magic to win
"Orlando entered the 2025-26 season seen by some as a possible Eastern Conference contender. Then injuries and frustrations knocked the Magic into the Play-In Tournament, while the Pistons surged to the top of the East. But perhaps this series represents a return to priors. And if so, Orlando should prevail in Game 6."
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More Pistons vs Magic prediction markets
You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Pistons vs. Magic at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.
You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Pistons -4.5 spread means the Pistons will cover, while "No" means the Magic will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using theCovers odds converter).
Pistons vs Magic spread and total at prediction markets
Outcome
Yes
No
Pistons -4.5
48¢ (+108)
54¢ (-117)
Over 211.5 points
47¢ (+113)
54¢ (-117)
Our predictions:Pistons -4.5 — No
"Orlando is 4-1 against the spread in this series, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.1 points."
Other Pistons vs Magic prediction markets available
Paulo Banchero 25+ points (Yes: 46¢)
Desmond Bane 4+ threes (Yes: 25¢)
Jalen Duren 10+ rebounds (Yes: 45¢)
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Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts," which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Magic win tonight?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
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Three former Kentucky Wildcats have received invites to the NBA Combine.
Malachi Moreno, Otega Oweh, and Jayden Quaintance are among 73 players who have been invited to the combine this year to work out in front of NBA scouts and front-office personnel.
The player most Kentucky fans will be watching closely is Moreno. Moreno has been penciled in as a returning starter and key piece for this Kentucky team next season, but if he impresses NBA personnel in the pre-draft process, those plans may not seem as solid as originally thought.
Moreno could benefit from another year in college as he continues to get stronger and improve his game, but no doubt fans will be keeping an eye on him in the pre-draft process.
The NBA announced 73 players have been invited to the 2026 NBA Draft Combine. Additionally, a select number of standout players from the NBA G League Draft Combine will be invited to participate in the NBA Draft Combine following the event. Below are the current 73 players listed pic.twitter.com/9kB4ChXFeo
There are a couple of other names of interest to Kentucky fans that have been invited to the combine.
Santa Clara forward Allen Graves, Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic, and Baylor forward Tounde Yessoufou were all invited to the combine. Those three players also entered the transfer portal, and are considered possibilities to return to college, although recent reports have indicated Yessoufou plans to remain in the draft.
It’s more likely than not that all three remain in the draft, but if any of those three decide to return to college, they will be highly coveted players in the transfer portal.
When the playoffs started a couple of weeks ago, I thought there was no way we would be looking at the possibility of a Game 7 in Round 1. If you told me it was the Pistons needing to win to force that Game 7, I would have called you crazy. However, that is the reality for the Pistons.
It is no longer a 7-game series, but a single-elimination tournament against the same team. No room for mistakes, no chance to redeem yourself if you have a bad game. Win and you have a chance to bring the series back home and send the Orlando Magic packing. Lose and you become one of the seven number one seeds to lose to the eight seed. You will enter a Summer full of questions and have to face the reality that this may have been your best shot at making the NBA Finals in a weaker East at the top.
The pressure is on the Pistons to perform. The Magic will once again be short-handed without Franz Wagner, but as they proved last game, they can still put up a fight without him.
Let’s get this series back home.
Game Vitals
Where: Kia Center in Orlando, FL When: Friday, May 1 at 7 pm EST Watch: Amazon Prime Odds: Pistons (-3.5)
Analysis
As I mentioned above, the Orlando Magic will once again be without Franz Wagner due to the calf injury he suffered in Game 4. Given what has happened with players recently who have suffered calf injuries, I would suspect we would not see Franz in a potential game 7, but I guess that remains to be seen and ultimately may not matter if the Pistons aren’t ready to play tonight.
The Pistons injury report is not clean either as Tobias Harris is questionable with an ankle injury. I would assume that he plays given the circumstances, but if he does not play the Pistons will be facing an uphill battle offensively, as he has been their number 2 option throughout the series.
Luckily for the Pistons, the Magic had much less success slowing down Cade Cunningham without Franz Wagner’s size and strength. The Magic threw a slew of defenders at Cade in Game 5 and nobody had any success as he went off for a Pistons’ Franchise Record 45 points and did it on high efficiency. He was 13-of-23 from the field, 5-of-8 from beyond the arc, and 14-of-14 from the free throw line.
Cade has been successful scoring the ball throughout the series, but it came on poor 3-point shooting and low efficiency with a mind-numbing amount of turnovers. Cunningham still turned over the ball 6 times in Game 5, but they were not as damaging as the 24 turnovers he had over the previous 3 games since Orlando had less success with scoring off of them.
A noticeable change the Pistons made in Game 5 was allowing Ausar Thompson to play on the ball more while Cade Cunningham played off the ball. This allowed Cade to hunt mismatches, which he obviously had a lot of success with. The most important development from Thompson being on the ball is it allowed him to push the pace on rebounds, which scrambled Orlando’s defense and opened up the offense a bit, they also could not have Thompson’s man roam as much off ball to reek havoc in the passing lanes because they had to guard Thompson. When he is camped out in the corner, he is not a threat to shoot and you can get away with not guarding him since he won’t beat you from deep.
Some of the above is also likely due to the loss of Franz Wagner, who has done a fantastic job defending Cade Cunningham throughout the series. He is pretty much the only defender on Orlando’s roster that has the size, strength, and defensive chops to stay in front of Cade without needing much help.
The main reason why the Magic were able to keep Game 5 close and even almost steal it at the end is because of an out-of-body shooting night from Paolo Banchero. Banchero has a reputation as being a “playoff-riser,” but he rose to a level far beyond even his best playoff performance of his young career. He did absolutely everything for Orlando on offense. It started with drives to the basket that the Pistons could not stop. That lead to the Pistons bringing an extra defender to slow him down which opened up wide open 3s for the other players on the team who actually made them. Finally, in the 4th, Paolo was unconscious from 3 and many of them were pretty contested attempts.
It led to a 45% shooting night for the Magic from beyond the arc, which I don’t expect them to replicate given their 3-point shooting numbers on the season. If the Pistons are unable to find a way to slow down Paolo Banchero, the Magic have a shot at repeating what they did on Wednesday. It is one thing to overcome a shooting night like that when you are on your home floor, but it is another thing to try to do it on the road.
If Tobias Harris is unable to play, the Pistons may want to consider starting Isaiah Stewart at the 4 since he has the size and movement skills on the perimeter to at least slow down Paolo Banchero. It may lead to a disastrous night offensively, but I think that would be the case with anybody you start in place of Tobias Harris.
Game 5 was a thriller between two young superstars trying to will their team to the win and Game 6 likely has to have a similar formula. If the Pistons are forced to play without Tobias Harris, I have a hard time seeing how they can generate enough offense to win.
Jalen Duren probably had his best game of the series on Wednesday, but he still only scored 12 points on 6 shots and grabbed 9 rebounds. In theory, he should be the one to take on Tobias Harris’ scoring load if he cannot play, but he has given no reason to believe he can do that during this series.
Let’s hope Tobias Harris guts out the injury and the Pistons are able to steal a win on the road and bring it home for a Game 7.
Apr 29, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) celebrates with second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) after a walk-off two-run home run against the Detroit Tigers in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
The Braves went 10-3 since we last checked in. No team did better; the Yankees and Cubs matched this pace from April 16 through the end of the month. That’s a 125-win pace over a full season, which is absurd… but that’s what the Braves managed. The division lead increased from three games over the Marlins to 6.5 games (still over the Marlins).
Though the Braves were very successful, they didn’t exactly blow everyone out of the water on paper. Over this 13-game stretch, they finished tenth in MLB in position player value, including ninth in hitting value and inputs, eighth in defensive value, and 19th in pitching value. The defense remained a key aspect of their run prevention, as their pitching line in this span was 86/106/102 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Basically, they didn’t pitch that well, and they actually got a bit stung by HR/FB these two-ish weeks, but the run prevention ended up being on point anyway.
Going game-by-game and looking at pre-game odds, the Braves “should have” gone something like 7-6. They obviously overperformed that by a ton. Their most incredible win was the Matt Olson walkoff-aided victory in a JR Ritchie-Tarik Skubal matchup. They only had three losses, but they were actually pre-game favored in two of them, including the 11-4 walloping they suffered in Washington that snapped a six-game winning streak. Still, they’ve largely been streaking positively — the team now has four different win streaks of three or more games, while it’s had just one period where it lost consecutive games at all (a three-game losing streak at one point).
Over this two-week span, the Braves raised their estimated win total to 93, up by about three wins. Their playoff odds gained ten percentage points and now sit around 95 percent. Only the Cubs, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, and Yankees added more of the former, while only the Yankees, Cubs, Reds, and Athletics added more of the latter.
How are the Braves doing for the season?
Well, they now have MLB’s best record at 22-10. They’re up two in the win column over the next-closest contender, and one in the loss column. They now project to have baseball’s second-best record, have the second-highest odds of winning their division, and the third-highest odds of making the playoffs and winning the championship. Things are going well, basically. It hasn’t been a particularly tough schedule yet, but the Braves are still 22-10 when a game-by-game expectation would be 18-14, so they’re still doing better than probably anyone expected. They have the second-best expected record by both run differential and BaseRuns — and unlike earlier in the month, they’re no longer substantially underplaying both, now just -1 relative to run differential and even with their expected BaseRuns record.
They’re third in position player value and 12th in pitching value; their WAR-wins total through 32 games is 19, so that’s at least one sense in which they’re outplaying their production. But as you’ve borne witness to, this isn’t a lucky team rocketing to the top of the standings, but a team that’s producing and getting largely-commensurate rewards, with a bit of luck thrown in to compensate for the past two years of misfortune and/or misery. In terms of overall rankings:
The Braves are fourth in both wRC+ and xwOBA, and eighth in defensive value. The defense slipped a bit, the hitting didn’t.
They’re 12th in pitching value, but second in ERA- (barely, at that), while being 15th in xFIP-. As noted above, the pitching was notably worse later in April, and, at least right now, this is a team that is going to rely on its position players to both hit and catch the ball.
How are the hitters doing?
I’m continuing the irresponsibility of the grayshaded, per-600 PA column. Hitter-wise, the second half of April was driven by Michael Harris II’s insane, beyond-video-game-numbers line, along with legitimately good performance from Ozzie Albies (along with overperforming said performance by an insane amount), along with Olson and Drake Baldwin. No one else really helped all that much. The struggles of Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski were actively detrimental to the cause.
For the season as a whole, it’s that same quartet driving the proverbial bus, though Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith continue to maintain good lines largely based on what they did earlier in April. Matt Olson has played like an MVP from basically MVP-on; in addition to his actual production, he was fourth in MLB in WPA in April’s second half, and is fourth again for the month as a whole. The timing of Olson’s contributions might overshadow Drake Baldwin’s similar production for some, but not for us, right? That said, Olson is pretty clearly the Braves’ MVP for April — he had a huge game nearly half the time, and if the season ended today, he might very well be the NL MVP, as his 1.7 fWAR is the league’s highest (and fourth in MLB, with two other guys just fractions ahead of him and behind Yordan Alvarez’ 2.2).
The following chart is just for the second half of April. It was a month of justice in this regard. Harris’ insane two weeks made this chart stupid. More broadly — do you find this chart useful? I won’t include it if it doesn’t help relative to the table above.
Here’s the same chart, but for the month as a whole.
The only thing I’ll add to this is that Riley struggling is kinda brutal in and of itself, but when you combine that with his uncanny ability to draw the WPA vortex upon himself, well… not much has gone wrong for the Braves, but that definitely has. Mauricio Dubon is also having a WPA vortex-y month, where he’s come up what feels like an inordinate amount in key spots. He was getting lucky with bloops and such earlier, but his WPA has taken a beating over the last few weeks as they haven’t fallen in those same big spots.
How are the pitchers doing?
The pitching situation continues to be fluid, so sample sizes wreak havoc on the ability to say much of use here every two weeks.
Bryce Elder’s topline looks great because he’s not getting killed by HR/FB. That said, this was not a great two weeks of actual pitching for him, and unless you think he’s suddenly immune to getting blasted into a higher HR/FB again, you should prepare for his numbers to take a tumble. Chris Sale had a much more Sale-like two weeks compared to early April. Grant Holmes did not have a fun time in late April. He probably needs to improve fairly quickly in May before the Braves go in a different direction in the rotation and he fixes the team’s “we have no one we like to pitch longer-stint middle relief” issue that Didier Fuentes has been conscripted into managing for some reason.
I’m loathe to talk about even smaller-sample performances among relievers, but for April as a whole…
Reynaldo Lopez was removed from the rotation after not pitching well. We’ll see what he does with a different role. Jose Suarez is an enigma with a great FIP-, an okay xFIP-, and a horrid WPA. This will probably work itself out, by which I mean, “he will be removed from the roster.” I can see why the Braves were so interested in keeping him around, but I am guessing their patience will run out before he manages to get the consistency to not blow up the game with a spate of walks each time out, even if he’s striking out the side while doing so. Dylan Lee is f’n awesome and is barely outside the top five in reliever fWAR right now. I don’t know if this is in the cards, but with how much the Braves like to spend on relievers, maybe they could give him a modest extension rather than just dumping the same resources into someone else in a later offseason. Tyler Kinley continues to pitch in a weird way that warrants its own post, but it hasn’t hurt the team so far. He’s another thing that could have gone terribly and really ruined this excellent month for the team, but things have worked out for the best so far. Robert Suarez has not been an expensive reliever contract that’s blown up in their faces — he’s basically done what they were hoping for when giving him all that moola. And then there’s Aaron Bummer, who is really delivering on “May you get what you wish for” this year. He’s being used in high leverage! Unfortunately, he’s a complete mess in the early going. Maybe he’s just aged out of effectiveness. Maybe it’s related to him missing time with arm issues last year. Either way, it’s a cruel twist of fate.
See you in two weeks! Again, if you have stuff you do want to see in these, or stuff you don’t, let me know and I’ll think about it.
