The San Antonio Spurs made up substantial ground in NBA Finals prediction markets after the team clawed its first win of the series Monday and cut the deficit to 2-1.
The New York Knicks are still favored to win the series, although they’re down to 63% from as high as 79% at Kalshi.
Key Takeaways
The Spurs gained 16% probability of winning the Finals by stealing Game 3.
Prediction market users like the Knicks to win Game 4.
Jalen Brunson has stayed fairly consistent in Finals MVP markets; Victor Wembanyama and Karl-Anthony Towns have been volatile.
No team in NBA history has lost the first two games of the NBA Finals at home and gone on to win the championship. The Spurs still have a long way to go to rewrite the history books, but they took a crucial step with Monday’s 115-111 win at Madison Square Garden.
Kalshi users gave the Spurs a 64% chance to win the Finals before the series began. They still had a 53% chance even after they lost Game 1, but they plummeted to as low as 21% after going down 0-2.
Support flipped in favor of the Knicks for Game 3, where they were 2.5-point favorites. The apple cart was upset once again, as Victor Wembanyama’s 32 points, eight rebounds, and six assists powered the visitors over the line.
The latest prediction market data from Kalshi suggests the Knicks have a 63% chance of winning the Finals, while the Spurs have a 37%. Nearly $290 million has been traded since the market opened after the conclusion of last year’s Finals.
A win for the Spurs in Game 4 could make them the favorites to win the Finals, seeing as they’d host two of the final three matchups. The Knicks are still favored in Game 4, but only just, at -1.5.
Kalshi’s Game 4 prediction market has the Knicks at a 53% chance of winning the crucial fourth encounter, with very little movement since the final buzzer sounded in last night’s thriller. The Spurs have a 47% chance, which has also virtually not changed during that period..
Finals MVP markets
NBA Finals MVP prediction markets have proved to be fairly volatile through three games.
Wembanyama, who had a 63% chance of winning the award a week ago, is down to 36%. He had fallen as low as 18% when his team was down 0-2.
Jalen Brunson has seen the least movement, settling at 47%, after entering the series at 32%. His probability essentially hasn’t changed since the Knicks won Game 1.
Karl-Anthony Towns has already seen huge peaks and valleys. He surged from 6% to 38% entering Game 3, only to fall back to 14% after the loss.
The only other player with a likelihood of winning the Finals MVP greater than 1% is OG Anunoby, who scored 28 points in Game 3 and has averaged 20.7 points and 4.0 rebounds for the series.
Kalshi users have traded nearly $12.6 million in the Finals MVP prediction market.
Who will win MVP?
As things stand, the Finals MVP is unclear. All three players mentioned above have their selling points and shortcomings.
Wembanyama only shot 28.6% from the floor in Game 1 despite posting a 26-point, 12-rebound double-double. He followed that up by committing the pivotal turnover that led to Brunson’s game-winning free throw with seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, and then missed the game-winning jump shot.
However, Wemby was back to his best in Game 3, with the aforementioned 32-point, eight-rebound, six-assist stat line. He has averaged 29 points, 9.7 boards, 3.3 dimes, and 3.3 blocks for the series.
Brunson has been instrumental in his team’s attack. Much of the Knicks’ offensive success has come from him blowing by his primary defender and getting two feet in the paint, which has triggered a series of rotations by the Spurs’ defenders that has often created open looks for teammates. He also showed up with big buckets in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and the game-winning free throw in Game 2.
That said, the Knicks guard was extremely inefficient and careless with the basketball. His 37% field-goal and 31.8% 3-point shooting are well below his standard, and he logged just as many turnovers as he did assists.
Towns was the Knicks’ best player in Games 1 and 2, although his scoring average (19.5 points) was still 5.5 points behind Brunson’s. He was also a relative no-show for Game 3, putting up 11 points, eight rebounds, and one assist, and only taking 10 shots.
Armed with switch-hitting power, an elite throwing arm, and sky-high expectations, Braden Montgomery makes his long-awaited arrival on the South Side. | (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
The future keeps arriving on the South Side. Prior to Tuesday night’s series opener, before the Braves roll in, the White Sox officially selected the contract of Braden Montgomery from Triple-A Charlotte. One of the most hyped call-ups of this whole rebuild is now, at last, real.
Montgomery, No. 2 in Chicago’s system and No. 21 in all of baseball (MLB Pipeline), has been banging on the door since Opening Day.
He started the year in Birmingham, and it took about five minutes for the 23-year-old switch-hitter to torch the Southern League. Player of the Month in April, up to Charlotte by May 5. The brakes? He never found them.
The numbers across the season: .314/.422/.548, 10 bombs, 41 RBIs, 52 runs, 39 walks in 56 games between Birmingham and Charlotte. And in his last 10 with the Knights, he basically turned into Barry Bonds: .474/.580/.711, on base like it was a birthright.
At that point, there wasn’t much left to prove.
This call-up is another notch for the blockbuster Garrett Crochet trade between Chicago and Boston in December 2024. Montgomery was one of four bodies in that deal — Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, Wikelman González, the others. All four have reached the majors (although González started the season in Charlotte and is currently on the IL), and the trade isn’t even two years old.
For Montgomery, the journey to the majors has been anything but ordinary.
The former No. 12 overall pick entered the 2024 draft as one of the most talented players in college baseball after starring at Texas A&M. His combination of switch-hitting pop, incredible athleticism, and an arm that could knock over a mailbox from the outfield. A broken ankle suffered during the Aggies’ postseason run briefly slowed his ascent, but it did little to diminish the excitement surrounding his long-term potential.
Since turning pro, the hype train has only picked up speed.
Scouts drool over the power, but that’s just the start. The arm is a cannon — 70-grade, no exaggeration — and he can handle center or right. Most see him sticking in right, but the ability to play center is a nice bonus for a team still sorting through its future core.
The best part is that Montgomery isn’t just a slugger. He works counts, draws walks, and owns the strike zone. That patience, plus the pop, is why scouts see him as a real middle-of-the-order threat.
Now the White Sox and their fans will find out how quickly those tools translate in the big leagues.
Montgomery’s call-up came as part of a roster shuffle, with Joe Rock up from Charlotte, Rikuu Nishida and David Sandlin back to Triple-A, and Austin Hays to the 60-day IL.
But let’s be real: Tuesday is all about Montgomery.
For a team still building towards the next competitive window, these call-ups are the measuring stick. Some are just bodies. Some are hope.
Montgomery feels like something more.
The Sox think they landed a cornerstone in the Crochet deal. Starting tonight against Atlanta, fans get their first look at whether he can turn all that promise into something real.
The Braden Montgomery era? It’s here. Get excited.
Hey, at least Jacob Gonzalez had a massive first career home run this past week. | (Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
Last week, we turned the page to a new month. The White Sox hit the road for their sixth road trip of the year. Instead of building off of a 6-1 home stand, they dropped four of six.
June was always going to be a tough month for this South Side squad. The month started with a continuation of the division matchups that ended May, moved on to a trip to Philly, relentlessly pushes into three series against some of the best teams in the league, and ends with three divisional series. Which is why after recently taking three of four from the Twins at home, it seemed like a sure thing the domination of the Minnesota club would continue.
For the bats, much of this trend continued this week. The Pale Hose scored no fewer than four runs in all six games they played.
Miguel Vargas came to play in the opener in Minnesota. Two-run home runs were the name of the game for the third baseman. He hit not one but two in the 9-6 loss:
On Wednesday, the White Sox finally got into the win column, 8-0. Vargas went 1-for-3 with two walks, two runs and his eighth RBI of the week. Had an MVP been named for the series, it would have gone to the 26-year-old.
Randal Grichuk kept his team in the opener on Friday in City of Brotherly Love. The outfielder was brought in specifically to hit against lefty pitching, and hit against lefty pitching he has. This season five of his six home runs and 12 of his 19 RBIs can be credited to facing a left-handed pitchers. Jesús Luzardo was Grichuk’s most recent victim: The DH for the night nabbed two solo shots off the starter and kept the game within striking distance, but the White Sox would ultimately end up losing, 8-6:
The six runs scored on Saturday, however, would be enough to earn the win. Both Colson Montgomery and Jacob Gonzalez homered, and we’ll show you the latter home run because it was the first long ball of J-Gone’s career. The ball traveled 428 feet into the second deck of right field, so it was no cheapie:
There were six lead changes in Sunday’s 9-5 loss. There were no home runs for the White Sox in this effort, but Tristan Peters smacked his 15th double of the year. The brief Banana is now batting .307 on the season. Peters was designated for assignment by the Rays before Chris Getz made a call to trade for him. A trade that cost the club cash and a player to be named later. While Tampa is sure to get a PTBNL upgrade from a system nobody to an actual prospect, for now one team’s loss is another team’s treasure.
The pitching this week was feeling the effects of playing 13 games in a row.
The highlight of this pitching struggle could be summarized best in David Sandlin’s performance. As you might remember, the rookie’s career debut was highlighted by retiring 18 in a row after giving up a solo home run to Byron Buxton to start the game. Last week, Sandlin started a second game against the Twins to open the series in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The result could not have been more different. He only made it through four innings, giving up eight runs on eight hits and four walks.
During the rubber match in Philly on Sunday, Sandlin entered the game after a Tyler Gilbert open. This time he made it through 3 1/3 innings, giving up three runs on three hits and three walks. His home runs allowed has now climbed to four after just 13 1/3 innings of work over three game appearances.
This week was also the week Davis Martin finally stumbled. A bad start was bound to happen, but Buxton and company is not who I anticipated this struggle to happen against. The starter added a second loss to his record after pitching 4 2/3 innings. He surrendered six runs on 10 hits and struck out a season-low two batters.
Relief pitching did not have a great week, either. Tyler Davis and his 12 ERA over the stretch was a perfect example of this. His first of the week, on Monday, was an inconsequential ninth run given up to the Twins in a 9-6 loss. On Friday, Davis had a scoreless outing against the Phillies. What happened on Sunday to finish up the week, you ask? Davis entered the game in the bottom of the fifth inning with a 5-4 lead and a job to hold the score there. Hold the score he did not. After three hits, a walk and one strikeout, the inning ended with the Good Guys in a 7-5 hole. The rubber match would be lost by a final of 9-5. An opportunity for a .500 week and a series win going into playing Atlanta was squandered by one inning of poor pitching.
As if that relief pitching wasn’t ugly enough, Bryan Hudson came out of the week with a 27 ERA in 1 1/3 innings of work. His two appearances in Philadelphia were both two outs apiece, giving up two runs in each. To no one’s surprise, there were no strikeouts involved during these outings.
Hopefully the Monday off-day will prove as a reset for Zach Bove’s pitching staff. The club will need a locked-in rotation and bullpen if they are to squeak out some wins against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Freddy Peralta doesn't give the New York Mets enough of an edge over the visiting St. Louis Cardinals tonight to take the home team to win straight up on the moneyline.
New York is a -117 favorite, and my Cardinals vs. Mets predictions are fading the home team to find value elsewhere, particularly with the Over.
Let's dig in with my MLB picks on Tuesday, June 9.
Who will win Cardinals vs Mets today: Cardinals moneyline (+112)
The New York Mets have played better baseball of late, but I'm not champing at the bit to take them to win straight up at -117 in this spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are the better value proposition at plus money on the road.
This price reflects the pitching matchup more than anything, as Dustin May is pitching opposite Freddy Peralta. However, Peralta has been underwhelming in his first (perhaps last) season in Queens.
Compare his under-the-hood metrics year over year, and you'll see the Mets may have gotten hosed by the Milwaukee Brewers (whomst among us?) in their offseason trade (well, not really, as neither Brandon Sproat nor Jett Williams has looked that good). Last year, Peralta generated whiff and strikeout rates in the 83rd and 84th percentiles, respectively. This year, those have fallen to the 71st and 60th.
His 3.63 ERA isn't terrible, but it's worse by nearly a full run from a season ago, and his expected ERA is 3.79 with an expected batting average of .237 (both in the 57th percentile).
All told, he's getting hit more frequently and harder, and with bat-speed darling Jordan Walker waiting in the wings, I like the value in the visitors because Peralta isn't giving New York the edge implied by the price. I'd play the Cardinals to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Peralta's 14.3 BlastCon% is the highest it's been since it was first measured in 2024, meaning his offerings are getting squared up at top speed more frequently, particularly helping favor the Over 7.5.
Cardinals vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
With Peralta getting squared up frequently, and May similarly struggling to suppress scoring, we've taken our first step toward the Over 7.5.
And while Peralta's fly-ball rate is a reasonable 35.5%, that's so far below his career rate that it's reasonable to expect some normalization.
With wind blowing out toward right-center, per BallparkPal, it's shaping up to be a long day at the office for these hurlers.
Mets outfielder Juan Soto has the best matchup rating on today's slate, according to Batters-Box. If the Mets stack lefty bats like Soto and the red-hot Carson Benge, May will be in trouble, as they've hit .299/.371/.448 against him this season.
I'd take the Over 7.5 as short as -145 or pivot to Over 8.5 at plus money around +120 as an alternative.
Jason Wilson's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 3-0, +2.88 units
Over/Under bets: 2-1, +1.1 units
Cardinals vs Mets odds
Moneyline: Cardinals +113 | Mets -117
Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-178) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+108)
Cardinals vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets.
How to watch Cardinals vs Mets and game info
Location
Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date
Tuesday, June 9, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
Cardinals.TV, SNY
Cardinals starting pitcher
Dustin May (3-6, 4.59 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher
Freddy Peralta (4-4, 3.63 ERA)
Cardinals vs Mets latest injuries
Cardinals vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 4: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch in the second inning during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at PNC Park on September 4, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers haven’t lost two games in a row in four weeks, but that run of success will be put to a tough test in Tuesday night’s series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
Now they try to get the bats back on track against Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
Tuesday marks the fifth time in five series since Skenes debuted in 2024 that the right-hander will face the Dodgers. In his rookie season, the Dodgers and Pirates split those two games, and Skenes looked relatively human, with seven runs allowed in 11 innings, including three home runs.
Last year, Skenes simply fixed the glitch, and did not allow any runs to the Dodgers in 12 1/3 innings over two starts, both Pirates wins, en route to winning the National League Cy Young Award, after finishing third as a rookie. In total, Skenes has 33 strikeouts against only three walks against the Dodgers, with at least eight strikeouts in all four starts to date.
Skenes this year has allowed 15 runs (11 earned) in 20 innings over his last four starts, all Pirates losses. It’s just the second time Skenes has failed to pitch six innings in four consecutive starts, but last year’s four-game stint included a pair of scoreless starts.
The recent skid ballooned Skenes’ ERA to 3.09, which stands out because during his first two major league seasons saw him post a 1.96 and 1.97 ERA. That ERA this year still ranks 11th in the National League, while his 2.29 xERA is second. Skenes’ strikeout rate (29.5 percent) ranks fourth, while his strikeout-minus-walk rate (24.8 percent) is third.
Skenes is third in FanGraphs WAR (2.2) in the National League, tied with Shohei Ohtani, who will start on the mound on Wednesday and be the first batter Skenes faces on Tuesday. Ohtani homered off Skenes in their first meeting, on June 5, 2024, but overall has just two hits in 11 at-bats against him, with six strikeouts and a walk.
Andy Pages has four hits in six at-bats against Skenes, including a home run and two doubles, but only two other Dodgers have multiple hits off the Pirates ace — Kyle Tucker has a home run and double in five career at-bats, while Freddie Freeman has two hits in 12 at-bats, including a double.
ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 03: Grant Holmes #66 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Atlanta Braves on June 3,2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta,GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates where they were able get through without facing Paul Skenes, the Atlanta Braves are headed to Chicago where the Acuña brothers will be facing off.
Grant Holmes will be taking the mound, and as we have seen, he tends to run out of gas after going through the lineup twice. A big question mark is after an off day if Didier Fuentes will be available for long relief if needed. A combo of Holmes and Fuentes in the same game seems to be a solid strategy of it can be done.
So far this season Holmes has an ERA of 3.86 and FIP of 1.317, which are both right on par with the rest of his career. However, his 21.2 percent strikeout rate is the worst of his career, and his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.49 shows he is due for some regression. He has been particularly fortunate with a left on base percentage of 83.3 when his career average is 79.2, and his BABIP against him is .256, which is lower than his career .287.
Oddly, it is the second time a hitter faces him in a game when he struggles, not the third. Hitters are averaging an OPS of .569 the first time they see him, a 1.010 the second time, and a .519 the third. Nine of his twelve HRs that he has given up have been during the second time through the order. It will be interesting to see how Walt Weiss handles him moving forward.
Only two players on the entire White Sox active roster have faced Holmes, and neither have more than two at-bats. Coincidentally it is Ronald Acuña’s brother, Luisangel, who has those two at-bats and he is hitless. Randal Grichuk is hitless in his one at-bat.
Like the Pirates that the Braves just swept, the White Sox are a team that have been surprisingly good on offense. They are fourth in MLB in HRs, and seventh in total runs per game. Good news for the Braves is they are bottom ten in ERA with a 4.38 right behind their crosstown rivals, the Cubs.
Former Braves pitcher Erick Fedde was originally slated to take the mound for the Braves. But then it was announced that Brandon Eisert will be opening. Eisert held Atlanta hitless last season in 1.1 innings and has had a solid year thus far in 14.0 innings. This season he has a 3.21 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and a 1.214 WHIP. He also has fifteen strikeouts to only five walks.
Based on Fedde originally slotted to start, it can be guessed that he will be following Eisert. Fedde’s time with the Braves is probably time that he would like to forget when he had an ERA of 8.10 in 23.1 innings in 2025. Fedde is not exactly doing well this season either. He currently sports an ERA of 4.94 and an xERA of 4.50. His xERA is in the bottom 33.0 percent of MLB. He is only striking out 14.2 hitters which is in the bottom 4.0 percent of MLB and is walking 9.4 percent, which is in the worst 40.0 percent.
On paper, the Braves’ offense should be licking their chops should they get to face Fedde, but we never truly know with the great game of baseball what will happen. Ronald Acuña and Austin Riley have had the best success against Fedde on the team. In nineteen at-bats Acuña has three HRs, a .316 average, and a 1.277 OPS. In twenty- two at-bats Riley has a .982 OPS with one HR. Another player to keep an eye on is Michael Harris. We already know he is on fire this year, but in his nine at-bats against Fedde he has a .667 average and 1.445 OPS. As far as Eisert goes, there is not enough data to really draw any conclusions, but based on his 14.0 innings this year, the Braves need to get him off the mound as fast as they can to move on to the other pitchers on the White Sox roster.
Alek Thomas in the dugout. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Inspiration.
I kept some oat milk in the refrigerator, thinking that when the time was right, it would be much better than regular milk. Eventually the milk went sour. I thought of Alek Thomas.
Doubts appeared before it happened.
“At this point, expecting Thomas to anchor center field for a competitive Diamondbacks club feels optimistic. His tools suggest upside, but four seasons of stasis on offense and regression on defense tell a different story.” — Jeff Irving, December 2025
“On the other end of the age spectrum, this season may be the last chance for Jorge Barrosa and Alek Thomas to have a breakthrough performance.” — Makakilo, February 2026
Ben Seigel asked, “When will the front office start to make some decisions on Alek Thomas?” He made a strong argument:
“And there are multiple high-level prospects currently sitting down in Reno chomping at the bit for an opportunity including Tommy Troy, Ryan Waldschmidt, and eventually A.J. Vukovich when he returns from injury. That’s also not taking into account Jordan Lawlar’s eventual return…” — Ben Seigel, April 2026
My article, Which Outfielder Will Most Exceed Expectations? had a table of FanGraphs 2026 projections of four statistics (wRC+, OBP, HR/PA, and SLG) for each of six possible Diamondbacks outfielders. This season with the Diamondbacks, Thomas fell significantly short of each of his four projections. Also he fell short of the projections of the other possible outfielders except for Barrosa (SLG and HR/PA).
What happened?
This season with the Diamondbacks, Alek Thomas struggled at the plate. He had several career low statistics, such as .222 OBP, .340 SLG, 3.0 BB%. His defense in center field, although above average, had not returned to the level of 2022/2023, when he was twice nominated for a gold glove.
Instead of optioning Thomas to AAA until he was ready to return, the Diamondbacks DFA’d him to remove him from the 40-man roster. That opened a trade window prior to Thomas being available to other teams on waivers. Only if he was not traded, and only if no team claimed him on waivers, would he be available to return to the Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers made a trade offer that the Diamondbacks liked, so Thomas was traded to the Dodgers for Jose Requena, a 17-years-old outfielder.
Mike Hazen’s comments are key to understanding the Diamondbacks’ viewpoint. The bolded italics were added by me.
“I think he made changes this offseason, fundamentally, to target some of those things. I know he worked at all those things. It hasn’t translated.” — Mike Hazen, May 2026
“I feel like if we just optioned him, feeling like he’s buried, sitting down there, biding his time until he gets another opportunity, I wasn’t sure that we were going to get the best version. This is the opportunity we’ll have to get the best version of him if he’s still here.” — Mike Hazen, May 2026
In the minors, had other outfielders developed to the point that keeping Thomas in the Majors would stunt their development? My view is that the desired player mindset is working extraordinarily hard to prepare, not knowing whether an opportunity would happen. I hold up Yilber Diaz as the prime example of the desired player mindset in the following two AZ Snake Pit articles:
Alex Thomas, 1-6 June, AAA (Pacific Coast League) results follow (Data from Baseball Savant):
Alek Thomas did not swing at five waste zone pitches (far from the strike zone). That seems to reflect a very positive change compared to the 2026 season in the Majors, when he swung at 20.6% of waste zone pitches with zero hits.
Recently, Alek Thomas’ OBP was worse in AAA (.176 vs .222), but xOBA was a little better (.327 vs .275). Again, that seems positive.
Recently, Alek Thomas hit a lot more ground balls compared to fly balls (roughly 4:1 vs 1.7:1). This change likely reflects swing changes after being traded to the Dodgers. Recently, his launch angles are rarely in the optimal range. See table for more details.
The following table shows Exit Velocities (EV) , Launch Angles (LA), and Ball-In-Play (BIP) information for Alex Thomas 1-6 June, AAA.
My conclusion is that there are signs that Thomas made positive changes at the plate. The undiscovered Alek Thomas may be emerging.
Summary.
This season was Alek Thomas’ last chance for a breakout season with the Diamondbacks. His defense was above average (albeit less than it was), but he struggled at the plate. His offseason work did not translate to season results. The Diamondbacks DFA’s him. Then they traded him to the Dodgers.
Perhaps Thomas now has a mindset similar to Yilber Diaz : working extraordinarily hard to prepare, not knowing whether another opportunity will happen.
In his first week in AAA, Alek Thomas reduced his swings at waste zone pitches (20.6% to zero), increased his expected on-base-percent, and hit a home run. On the other hand, he hit a lot of grounders, perhaps because his launch angles are rarely in the optimal range. The undiscovered Alek Thomas may be emerging.
The Mets have announced that Kodai Senga will not make his scheduled Tuesday rehab start with Double-A Binghamton due to ulnar nerve irritation.
Tuesday’s start would have been Senga’s fourth rehab outing. In his first three starts, Senga has allowed seven earned runs on 14 hits over 12.0 innings.
Manager Carlos Mendoza previously noted that Senga's velocity was "a little down" in his last start.
Senga has been on the IL since April 28 while dealing with lumbar spine inflammation.
Prior to landing on the IL, Senga had been struggling mightily, pitching to a 9.00 ERA in five starts, making his spot in the rotation questionable at best whenever he is fully healthy.
HOUSTON, TX - JUNE 07: Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) flies out to left in the bottom of the sixth inning during the MLB game between the Athletics and Houston Astros on June 7, 2026 at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The latest news on the Houston Astros!
Another day, another injury: LaMonte Wade Jr. is heading to the IL, and Joey Loperfido is being recalled per Brian McTaggart:
Source: Astros OF Lamonte Wade Jr. will be placed on the 10-day IL today (right hamstring strain) and OF Joey Loperfido will be called up from Triple-A Sugar Land to join the club tonight.
It will be Loperfido's first time with the Astros since he strained his quad April 17.
Astros GM Dana Brown today at Angel Stadium: “I don’t think this team is a team that’s going to be sellers at the deadline. I think we’re good enough … The division is wide open, the postseason is wide open, so I don’t foresee us being sellers.”https://t.co/iiagC36ZS7
In Chandler Rome’s most recent piece, he discusses several topics: The Astros will maintain they are buyers; a LH hitting OF is the team’s biggest need; Doubts Yordan will be dealt; a potential Jeremy Pena trade window; Christian Vazquez impact on staff & what kind of playing time he may get upon the return of Yainer Diaz; the Astros patience with Mike Burrows:
Six thoughts about the Astros, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña as the trade deadline looms – https://t.co/9CEA2739TL
The Astros are promoting pitching prospect Cole Hertzler to Double-A Corpus Christi. Hertzler, a 22-year-old fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft, struck out 64 batters, walked 25 and posted a 2.72 ERA across 43 innings in High-A Fayetteville.
Of note: In Bob Nightengale’s latest column, he mentions teams that are ‘delusional’ in their statements about not being willing to sell despite bad records. The Astros are not one of the teams he mentions.
Things he does mention:
Aroldis Chapman likely to be dealt
Freddy Peralta wants a Max Fried type deal in FA
DBacks and Ketel Marte still at odds
Twins SP Bailey Ober filed a formal complaint about the quality of baseballs, and believes they led to his latest injury. More pitchers are echoing his sentiments
The MLB trade deadline demands bravery. Go get Tarik Skubal like he's CC Sabathia. https://t.co/OS6W9VZdpc
ECB continuing investigation into nightclub incident
Ben Stokes is highly unlikely to be included in England’s squad for the second Test against New Zealand after the 35-year-old asked for space and time to consider his long-term future amid the fallout from a nightclub incident in the early hours of Monday morning.
The England and Wales Cricket Board is determined to bring the latest furore surrounding the culture of the men’s Test team under control before the start of the Women’s World Cup on Friday, with a temporary end to Stokes’s time as captain expected to be confirmed when the squad is announced within the next 48 hours.
Let’s hope the elements don’t interfere with a tape-measuring showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers star-studded lineup and Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes at PNC Park on Tuesday, June 9.
My top Dodgers vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks are calling for Los Angeles to eke out a low-scoring win against Skenes tonight.
Who will win Dodgers vs Pirates today: Dodgers moneyline (+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lineup regulars Brandon Lowe (knee) and Oneil Cruz (hand) day-to-day with minor injuries, and ace Paul Skenes is struggling on the bump with 15 runs allowed across his past four starts.
Obviously, Skenes’ underlying 3.07 xFIP and 3.25 xERA highlight there’s been some tough luck during the skid, but he’s also tasked with facing the best lineup in the majors by wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitchers tonight.
Add the potential for rain delays and/or stoppages due to forecast rain and thundershowers, to Pittsburgh ranking 20th in bullpen ERA over the past 30 days, and the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline is playable to -110.
COVERS INTEL: While it’s a small sample, Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Eric Lauer’s dipped to a 21.7% squared-up contact rate across two starts with his new team after allowing a 34.4% mark through 36 1/3 innings with the Toronto Blue Jays to start the season.
Dodgers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
With the highlighted Pittsburgh injury question marks and overall lack of success against left-handed pitchers, I’m anticipating the Pirates doing limited damage at the dish to keep this total Under the number.
Additionally, even with Skenes’ noted bump in the road, he still paces the majors in xERA since debuting in 2024. So, I fully expect him to pitch well and hold the Los Angeles bats largely in check.
Of course, the Dodgers have also played to the Under in 27 of their past 45 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI), so I like this bet down to -125.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 24-13, +12.73 units
Over/Under bets: 13-10, -2.37 units
Dodgers vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Dodgers +100 | Pirates -120
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+155) | Pirates +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Dodgers vs Pirates trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 32 of their last 45 road games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Pirates.
How to watch Dodgers vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Tuesday, June 9, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
SportsNet LA, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Dodgers starting pitcher
Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.74 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Paul Skenes (6-5, 3.09 ERA)
Dodgers vs Pirates latest injuries
Dodgers vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Phillies (36-30) take the field in Toronto tonight for the second game of their three-game series against the Blue Jays (32-35).
Philadelphia took the opener of this series on Monday night, jumping out early and controlling the game enroute to a 5–2 win. The game followed the typical script each team has followed of late: Philly finding some early offense while getting dominant starting pitching while the Jays continue to struggle stringing together enough hits.
The Phillies did most of their damage in the 2nd and 3rd innings, scoring five runs—including a two-run homer from Adolis García and RBI hits from Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto.
On the mound, Cristopher Sánchez was dominant, striking out 10 over 7 innings while allowing just 2 runs to earn his eighth win of the season.
Toronto’s offense struggled to generate consistent pressure, with only six hits for the game, highlighted by a solo homer from Ernie Clement.
Tonight’s starting pitchers are a couple of aces: Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia against Dylan Cease of the Jays. This is strength vs. strength. Wheeler has been elite, combining low run prevention with consistent strikeouts, while Cease brings similar dominant stuff. Note, however, that Cease is scheduled to start after being sidelined with hamstring woes. That could limit how many pitches the Jays allow their ace to throw.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Date: Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Time: 7:07PM EST
Site: Rogers Centre
City: Toronto, ON
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
The Latest Odds: Phillies vs. Blue Jays
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies (-108), Toronto Blue Jays (-112)
Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+158), Blue Jays +1.5 (-193)
Total: 7.5 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers: Phillies vs. Blue Jays for June 9
Blue Jays: Dylan Cease Season Totals: 62.0 IP, 3-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 92K, 26 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Brandon Marsh – Team-best .333 average
Kyle Schwarber – Team leader with 23 HR and 40 RBI
Bryce Harper – 6-21 (.261) with 1 HR in June
Ernie Clement – Hitting .309, including a HR last night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 4-26 (.154) in June
Kazuma Okamoto – saw his 6-game winning streak snapped last night / is 10-28 (.357) in June
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Phillies and Blue Jays
The Philles are 37-31 on the Run Line this season
The Blue Jays are 31-34 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 33 times in Toronto’s 67 games this season (33-31-3)
The OVER has cashed 28 times in the Phillies’ 66 games this season (28-36-2)
Expert picks & predictions: Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Phillies and the Blue Jays:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Phillies on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Phillies on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total od 7.5
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HOUSTON, TX - JUNE 07: Houston Astros first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. (31) is caught looking in the bottom of the sixth inning during the MLB game between the Athletics and Houston Astros on June 7, 2026 at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
According to a report by Brian McTaggart, the Houston Astros will place OF LaMonte Wade Jr. on the 10-day IL today, and recall OF Joey Loperfido from Triple-A Sugar Land.
Source: Astros OF Lamonte Wade Jr. will be placed on the 10-day IL today (right hamstring strain) and OF Joey Loperfido will be called up from Triple-A Sugar Land to join the club tonight.
It will be Loperfido's first time with the Astros since he strained his quad April 17.
Wade Jr. made an immediate impact with the Astros after being signed by the team June 4, batting .333 with a .385 OBP and 1.135 OPS. He hit two doubles, a HR and drove in 4 in 4 games (12 AB). He was injured while running out a base hit.
Loperfido, who was re-acquired by the Astros in the offseason, hit .276 with a .348 OBP and .711 OPS with 5 doubles and 7 RBI across 58 AB earlier this season before he was injured running out a groundout.
Loperfido, who was optioned to Triple-A after being activated from the IL last Thursday, is batting .297 with a .381 OBP and .732 OPS with 2 doubles and 4 RBI at Sugar Land over 37 AB.
Not surprisingly, a planned public watch party outside Madison Square Garden for Game 3 of the Finals was abruptly canceled for security reasons, depriving fans who couldn't afford the sky-high ticket prices of a chance to get as close as possible to the action.
Several watch parties officially sanctioned by the NBA did take place for Game 3, including ones at Central Park, Bryant Park and the Brooklyn Bowl. However, things did turn violent as fights broke out at the Bryant Park location, resulting in 21 arrests.
Still, with the overwhelming community support for the Knicks, watch parties will likely continue for every Finals game remaining both home and away, including the return of one outside Madison Square Garden.
The NBA has a dedicated web page for Finals watch parties. As of Tuesday morning, the information for Game 3 has all been deleted and replaced with "Check back soon for upcoming information on Game 4 Watch Parties!"
BRONX, NY - MAY 07: Pitcher Brendan Beck #89 of the New York Yankees pitches in his first MLB game during a game between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 7, 2025 in the Bronx, New York. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
In this week on the farm, we saw the first organizational no-hitter of the season in Scranton, several breakout hitting performances in Somerset, some real pitching struggles down in Hudson Valley, and a Tampa squad that’s putting it all together.
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Record: 31-31, 7 GB in the International League East after a 3-4 week against the Syracuse Mets (Mets)
Run differential: +8
Coming up: Home vs. Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies)
The first week of June was pretty meh for the RailRiders, who suffered a losing week due to a Wednesday doubleheader that threw in an extra game. They won the first two games, lost the next two, won on Friday, and then got unceremoniously shut down over the weekend. Despite losing more ground on the week, they had the org’s biggest highlight, which was the first no-hitter of the season on Friday.
Brendan Beck tossed seven no-hit innings in one of his finest starts of the season before Carson Coleman finished it off with a pair of no-hit frames, capping it off with a 6-6-3 double play to end the game. It’s the first RailRiders no-hitter since Sean Boyle’s seven-inning one in 2021 and the first nine-inning no-hitter since Luis Gil, Reggie McClain, and Stephen Ridings combined for one earlier that season:
With Spencer Jones moving back up to the big leagues due to Aaron Judge’s injury, the focus was back solely on George Lombard Jr., who had a okay week at the plate. Jasson Domínguez began a rehab assignment on Friday and went 0-for-7 across two games in left field. Could they give him some work in right field? I’d bet against that… for now. Tyler Hardman had some big hits this week, and the team also welcomed back Marco Luciano from the injured list.
Dom Hamel got the Tuesday and Sunday starts and was passable. Elmer Rodríguez bounced back nicely from a few tough starts in a row with 5.2 two-run innings with six strikeouts on Thursday, while Adam Kloffenstein took the loss on Saturday.
For the rest of the pitching staff, there was a pretty seismic shift with Carlos Lagrange moving to the bullpen. He still threw four innings on Wednesday in some of his best work of the season with seven strikeouts, but you have to think it’s more of a “deload” period, and it could be a few weeks before he’s in the 1-2 inning role.
Yovanny Cruz and Bradley Hanner took losses late in the week in a pair of close losses. Eric Reyzelman, the most MLB-ready relief prospect, was placed on the injured list with a reported back injury mid-week. While better than an arm injury, he had back issues last year that derailed his 2025 season.
Record: 30-27, 1 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 4-2 week against the Harrisburg Senators (Nationals)
Run differential: +27
Coming up: Home vs. Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Mets)
How is it possible to have a winning week, but your run differential goes down by eight runs? Well, that happens when your loss on Friday night was one of the worst in team history, 21-4. Outside of that game, they won four close, medium-scoring games and lost another one by one run in a solid week that saw them inch closer to the division lead.
Somerset’s high-powered offense had one of its worst weeks of the season after Jace Avina was placed on the injured list early in the week. The May Eastern League Player of the Month was en fuego. Garrett Martin hit another three home runs and is up to 19, while DJ Gladney caught fire with four home runs and seven extra-base hits. I’d also like to mention Cole Gabrielson, who was promoted to fill Avina’s spot in the outfield and homered twice in Friday’s blowout loss.
Outside of Jack Cebert’s rough outing on Friday, it was a good week for the starting pitching. Trent Sellers tossed a quality start, Cade Smith finally came around with five solid innings on Wednesday, Xavier Rivas struck out nine in four innings on Thursday, Chase Chaney tossed six shutout innings, and Kyle Carr continued a strong stretch with nine strikeouts in five innings. Ben Hess only pitched one inning on Sunday, getting stuck in a 40-pitch inning.
The bullpen was up-and-down. Guys like Hayden Merda and Kelly Austin traded good and bad outings, while Chris Veach and Ben Grable pitched well in multi-inning efforts on Friday. 2024 UDFA Tony Rossi got a promotion on Friday and tossed a scoreless inning in his Double-A debut after a terrific year and change in Hudson Valley.
Record: 25-31, 11 GB in the South Atlantic League North after a 2-4 week against the Frederick Keys (Orioles)
Run differential: -19
Coming up: Home vs. Jersey Shore BlueClaws (Phillies)
Hudson Valley’s been in a big-time rut over the last few weeks for a variety of reasons. This week? It was a really rough one for the pitching. Outside of a 10-1 win on Thursday, they allowed at least seven runs in every other game, combining to allow 55 runs across six games. The one silver lining was the offense’s late explosion to come back from a 10-3 deficit on Friday, winning 14-13.
Offensively, Core Jackson continued to hit. Since returning from the injured list, he’s raised his OPS by 120 points. Josh Moylan (8-for-23, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 2 2B) caught fire mid-week to help him out, while Roderick Arias showed some life at the plate as well. Wilson Rodriguez and Eric Genther had worse weeks, while Kaeden Kent homered early in the week before getting seven hits in a two-game span.
It was harder to find a good start this week than you’d like. Bryce Cunningham scuffled, Luis Serna, Chase Hampton, Sean Paul Liñan, and Franyer Herrera all got lit up by the Frederick offense, and Rory Fox got brutalized by his defense, allowing seven unearned runs out of 10 in 4.2 innings. The bright spot was Allen Facundo (more on him later) on Thursday.
In a week where you allowed over nine runs a game, you probably could’ve expected a rough week from the bullpen. There was some good, but not many relievers got through the week without allowing a run in some way. Losing Rossi to a promotion continued to batter their depth there, as guys like Thomas Balboni Jr. and Wilmy Sanchez get higher-leverage innings.
Record: 30-27, 6 GB in the Florida State League West after a 5-1 week against the Palm Beach Cardinals (Cardinals)
Run differential: +22
Coming up: Away @ Bradenton Marauders (Pirates)
The Tampa Tarpons are arguably playing the best of any Yankee affiliate. When was the last time you could say that? They had a phenomenal week against Palm Beach, scoring 26 total runs in the first two games and eight on Friday before winning two close games during the weekend. A shutout loss on Thursday was all that stopped them from their first sweep of the season.
It was a quieter week for Jackson Lovich, but the train kept rolling for Hans Montero and Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek. JoJo Jackson had his best week since a strong April, while Willy Montero seems to be finding something over the last few weeks. It also helps that they got a talent infusion when Logan Maxwell (7-for-13, HR, 4 RBI, 2B, 2 BB, 4 SB) returned from the injured list.
Thatcher Hurd (4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 K) had a great bounce-back game on Tuesday after a miserable Single-A debut. Wyatt Parliament struggled on Wednesday, Henry Lalane (5.1 IP, 1 R, 6 K) tossed a third straight strong outing on Friday, and both Tyler Boudreau and Brennan Stuprich continued strong stretches with good starts over the weekend.
The bullpen had a terrific week, with the likes of Jose M. Rodriguez, Pedro Rodriguez, and Jose Martinez pitching well. Justin West seems to have unlocked something moving into a multi-inning relief role, tossing another three scoreless innings on Tuesday. The same can be said for JT Etheridge, who pitched well on Wednesday. Mac Heuer had six strikeouts in 2.2 scoreless innings, but was pulled mid-AB due to an undisclosed injury. He hasn’t been placed on the IL… yet.
Record: 14-13, 6 GB in the FCL North after a 3-2 week.
Run differential: +15
Some good and some bad here. Wilberson De Pena looked human this week, but his down week was made up for in spades by the likes of Richard Matic and a suddenly blisteringly hot Dexters Peralta, who’s now up to seven home runs on the year. The strikeout rate is concerning, but he’s still young. Jose Castro returned from injury late in the week, but the looming dread hanging over the bats is the fact that Dax Kilby hasn’t played in 10 days. Did he re-aggravate the hamstring injury?
Omar Gonzalez continued to be a force for the rotation. He’s been the best pitcher on the team. Blake Gillespie has been so-so, and Sabier Marte has been better of late, but Stanly Alcantara and Manuel Cruz have struggled. 2025 UDFA Austin Breedlove out of Tennessee has been a revelation in the bullpen, allowing just three runs in 13.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and just five walks. He should be in Tampa soon.
Woof. What a rough week for these two. The DSL Yankees have had some abysmal closes to games. They blew a 14-7 lead to DSL Mets Blue, a 6-2 lead to DSL Rangers Red, and a 4-3 lead to DSL Tigers 2 in the ninth. Meanwhile, it’s either been high-scoring losses or blowouts for the Bombers, including being no-hit on Monday.
Isaias Castillo is the standout bat here. The 17-year-old hit for the cycle on Tuesday and carried it through the week to lead the DSL in home runs through six games. Juan Torres, Stiven Marinez, and Alessandro Rodriguez are all hitting well around him.
On the pitching side, it’s a lot of ugly, but there were some impressive performances. Yunior Jerez tossed five no-hit innings with seven strikeouts. Kevin Centeno and Sebastian Rivas also stood out in brief, 2-3 inning spells.
How do you take the Prospect of the Week mantle from a guy who tossed seven no-hit innings? How about tossing six of your own, but being even more dominant?
Facundo’s been a niche prospect for a good bit, often producing in the FCL and Tampa over the last few years while battling injuries that stagnate him. A strong start to 2026 earned him a promotion to High-A Hudson Valley, where he’s traded good starts and bad starts. Last time out, he walked four and hit a batter in a miserable first inning before gritting his way through six.
On Thursday, Facundo was brilliant. He did continue to struggle with command, but he had every pitch working in six brilliant innings. We don’t have Statcast data for High-A, but he kept Frederick hitters off balance all night, which is pretty impressive considering they scored over 10 runs a game in the other five.
COVERS INTEL: Peralta's 
