Early in the baseball season, it's easy to get caught up in the allure of the numbers. Whose bat speed is up? Whose Statcast page is "blood red"? Whose exit velocities are way up? While I understand the fun in that and think it can still be an interesting endeavor, we have to realize that we're dealing with extremely small sample sizes, and a lot of that can be misleading. However, if you ignore it totally, you could miss a breakout season. So what should we do?
In my opinion, the best thing to do early in the season is to tie tangible changes in a hitter's approach or swing mechanics to their success. If we see a hitter off to a stronger-than-usual start, and we also know that they made a conscious decision to change their swing path or their approach, then we can have more confidence in backing the early gains. So that's what I'm attempting to do in this article.
I looked at a few hitters who are off to really strong starts, and then I cross-checked that with hitters who meaningfully changed their swing path, batting stance, or approach at contact. The goal is to find hitters who may truly be breaking out based on these changes, and players we can trade for or grab on the wire before everybody else is keyed into these results being at least somewhat real.
RELATED: Check out this week’s MLB Power Rankings!
Breakout Hitters for Fantasy Baseball 2026
Colt Keith - 1B/2B/3B, Detroit Tigers
When you look at the biggest bat speed risers so far in 2026, you'll see Colt Keith's name. The 24-year-old has had the biggest jump in bat speed, up 2.8 mph from 70.7 mph to 73.5 mph. However, Keith has also made some changes to his batting stance. According to Statcast, Keith's stance is now one degree open, which is a clear change from nine degrees open last season. That means his front foot has closed towards home plate more. He's also standing slightly further away from the plate, but the biggest change could be that his Ideal Attack Angle Rate is up to 60.4% from 48.8%.
Statcast measures Attack Angle, which is "the vertical direction that the sweet spot of the bat is traveling at the moment of contact with the baseball (or the point where the bat and ball cross paths, in the case of a swing-and-miss)." Essentially, it measures the direction of the barrel of the bat at the contact point. Contacting the ball with an Attack Angle between 5 and 20 degrees is considered ideal because those swings are statistically much more likely to produce line drives and fly balls, resulting in significantly higher slugging percentage and more extra-base hits. So far this season, Keith has seen his line drive rate improve by almost 3%, and his hard-hit rate is up from 43.7% to 56.5%. These are small sample sizes, but we're trying to connect real, tangible changes to small sample size results, and we can do that here. Keith has changed his stance. He's shifted his attack angle towards the ball, and he's getting his barrel into an ideal angle far more often than he has in the past. That has led to a quicker bat and much harder contact. Will it last? It's hard to say, but this is a former top prospect who is showing clear signs of improvement, so now is the time to buy in.
Javier Sanoja - 2B/3B/SS/OF, Miami Marlins
Sanoja was not a top prospect, but the injury to Christopher Morel has freed up a lot more third base reps for Sanoja, who is hitting .375/.375/.500 in 24 plate appearances with five RBI. I was also surprised to see that he has the fifth-biggest jump in Ideal Attack Angle rate, up to 53.1% from 32.3%, and his overall Attack Angle is up to 5 degrees from 2 degrees. We just covered above that an Ideal Attack Angle is between 5 and 20 degrees, so Sanoja is now in that range far more often, which is beneficial for him.
Javier Sanoja's stance is also now five degrees more open, and his feet are wider apart. That could be giving him a strong foundation and allowing him to turn on the ball quicker, which might be why he is intercepting the ball out in front of the plate almost four inches more this season, leading to a 62% pull rate, which is up from 39% last year. Sanoja has a 92.6% zone contact rate in his career, so if he is going to make more pulled contact and be more aggressive, his first pitch swing rate is up 12.8%, and he could get close to the .286 average he put up in the minors in 2024. Considering Miami likes to run, and Sanoja stole 37 bases in the minors in 2023, perhaps that could lead to some deep-league value.
Jordan Walker - OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Everybody is talking about whether or not Jordan Walker is "breaking out," and I even recorded a video on it this week, but since there's an argument that his results are tied to a clear approach change, and not just impressive bat speed, he's worth including in this article. We know Walker has elite bat speed, and we also know that he is recording "fast swings" (those over 75 mph) far more often this year. However, a more important change may be that his swing path tilt has become steeper.
As measured by Statcast, Swing Path Tilt measures the angle "of the plane of the swing, as compared to the ground," so a higher angle is a "steeper" swing (less horizontal), and a lower angle is a "flatter" swing. While attack angle measures the direction that the barrel of the bat is moving at the point of contact, swing path "measures the overall plane the bat follows over the course of the swing." A "steeper" or "flatter" swing is not "good" or "bad," but a steeper swing does often lead to more power production, so it's interesting to note that Walker has a slightly steeper swing this year, with the attack angle of the barrel also changing significantly. In fact, Walker also has the eighth-biggest jump in ideal attack angle, up to 66.7% from 47.7%. The 23-year-old is also chasing out of the zone less and swinging in the zone almost 10% more often. That's great because there will always be some swing-and-miss in Walker's game, so we want him to be more aggressive in the strike zone so that he gets more chances to do damage on pitches over the plate. We know he's spent plenty of time in the offseason retooling his swing, so if he can maintain his new mechanics over the duration of the season, the breakout might be real.
Cam Smith - OF, Houston Astros
Another former top prospect who is experiencing a bit of a breakout after a down 2025 season is Cam Smith. The second-year outfielder was featured in my second-year hitter breakout column and was my runner-up to Jac Caglianone, who I chose as my "pick to click." If you know my history with that column, that should have made it a given that Smith would have a huge season. In that article, I mentioned that Smith played around with his launch angle during the season, hitting the ball more on the ground to ensure that he was making contact. I speculated that Smith, with another year under his belt, could slowly look to get some lift back into this swing. That may be happening this season.
Much like Walker, Smith has a new swing path and new attack angle this season. Unlike Walker, his overall swing path is two degrees flatter, but his attack angle is five degrees larger. What that means is that while Smith's overall swing path is slightly flatter, his bat comes through the point of contact with a bit more tilt than last season. That could be creating more backspin, which is why his fly ball rate and hard-hit rate are both up. Smith is also standing nearly eight inches deeper in the box, which means, even though his attack direction is more for pull, he's making contact less far out in front of the plate. So far, his pull rate is down 11%, and he's driving the ball into the gaps far more often. That could be really good news for his batting average. Like Walker, Smith has also closed off his stance more, going from 10 degrees open to neutral. That's potentially allowing him to be more coiled in his load and then create more torque on his swing. It could be part of the reason his bat speed is up three mph right now, which is the third-biggest jump in baseball. Again, all of this is a small sample, but we have a young hitter with a change in his stance and a new bat path who also happens to be hitting the ball way harder than before. That could be something to buy into.
Cole Young - 2B, Seattle Mariners
Another player I covered in that same article on second-year hitters was Cole Young, who went on to have an awesome spring training, where he hit .281/.349/.667 with six home runs and three steals in 19 games. So could a new stance be part of the reason for that success? This season, his stance is now 35 degrees open, up from 8 degrees in 2025. He also narrowed his stance by over 10 inches, so his stance is narrower but more open. When you watch him swing, you can see that he kind of curls his front knee in a bit on his load, and then drives it into the ground when he plants and turns. That is conceivably allowing him to shift a bit more weight to his back leg when he loads and then explodes forward, creating more torque. He's also now making contact three inches further out in front of the plate but over six inches further out in front of the center of his mass, because he's standing nearly four inches farther back in the box. That's led to a 14% jump in pull rate and also has Young in the top 10 in Pull Air rate early in the season.
Young's exit velocities aren't off the charts, and his bat speed is solid but not elite, so the fact that he is making a more concerted effort in his approach to attack the ball and lift it to the pull side is great for his power potential. It will still make him around a 15 home run hitter, and it does create some swing-and-miss that may keep his average around .240, but when you pair that with an everyday player and the type of speed that has stolen 20+ bases in multiple minor league seasons, you have an interesting player as an MIF in fantasy formats.
Andrés Giménez - 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Another second baseman off to a pretty good start is Andrés Giménez, who's slashing .268/.318/.463 in 11 games with two home runs, eight RBI, and two steals. His exit velocity is up slightly, and his zone contact rate has shot up from an 85.2% last year to a 98.1% mark this year. His overall contact rates are only up modestly because he is swinging and missing too much outside of the zone, but considering Giménez's opposite field batted balls are also up, it's fair to wonder if his zone contact gains are connected to a new approach this season.
When we check in on Giménez's stance, we can also see that he's two degrees closed off this season after being 10 degrees open last year. That's a 12-degree difference in his stance, and the more closed-off stance may allow him to keep his front shoulder closed for longer and drive the ball to right field. We're also seeing him spread his feet a little wider and stand almost three inches further off the plate. That is another good way to make it easier to drive the ball the other way and avoid being jammed. Lastly, he's making contact with the ball over two inches closer to his center mass, which means he's letting the ball travel farther. All of this points to an opposite field approach, and then we can also add in that his bat speed is down 2.5 mph to 66.9 mph overall. While that may seem like a bad thing, remember that many elite contact hitters (Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Chandler Simpson) all have bat speeds under 64 mph. It allows them to square the ball up a little bit more. In fact, Giménez's Squared-Up Rate, which measures how often a batter makes contact on the sweet spot of the bat to maximize exit velocity on his swing type, is up 11% from last year. He is now 27th-best in baseball, right next to Chandler Simpson, Jacob Wilson, and Maikel Garcia. This is an approach that could lead to Giménez hitting .270 or higher with 20+ stolen-base upside while hitting in a good lineup. If he can also get back to 10 home runs, that's a pretty usable season overall.
Liam Hicks - C/1B, Miami Marlins
There was no bigger surprise in the first month of the season than Liam Hicks, who had a big spike in bat speed and hit three home runs in the first week of the season. His bat speed gains have since lessened, and the hot streak has calmed down, but Hicks is slashing .296/.375/.667 in 10 games with three home runs and 12 RBI. He is also currently sporting the ninth-biggest jump in ideal attack angle, up to 65% from 48.7%. So even if the bat speed gains are not astronomical, we can say that Hick's swing path is better than last year. He has also opened his stance 18 degrees, which is almost double what he was doing last year. That has clearly factored into a more pull-centric approach, as Hick's attack direction is five degrees more to the pull side and his pull rate has gone from 39% last year to 48% this year.
He's also getting the ball in the air way more, currently ranking 9th in all of baseball in Pull Air rate. We know that balls that are pulled in the air tend to do the most damage, so this approach change is something we like to see from Hicks. It's also important to note, as I covered this offseason, that Hicks has proven to be an elite contact hitter who makes strong swing decisions at the plate. So, he has taken that elite approach and started to swing more in the zone (zone swing rate is up 9.5%) and looks to do damage on those swings. He literally has a 100% zone contact rate, so it's rare that he is going to swing and miss when he decides to offer, and now he's offering with more intent to do damage. I think that makes so much of this real. I'm still not sure he has the power to hit 20 home runs, but I think the batting average should certainly go above .270 this year, and I think we're going to see him at least double the six home runs he hit last year in Miami. That's great for two-catcher leagues.
Mark Vientos - 3B, New York Mets
With Juan Soto on the IL with a calf injury, Vientos is getting another shot in the Mets lineup and making the most of it, slashing .417/.462/.625 in 26 plate appearances with one home run and a 4/2 K/BB ratio. His pull rate is also up 6%, but we've seen his flyball rate plummeter 11.4%, so is this tied to an approach change? Well, for starters, Vientos has the sixth-biggest jump in bat speed, up 2.1 mph from 71.2 mph to 73.3 mph. That's entering a range of elite bat speed. He's also had a three-degree shift in attack angle, flattening his bat more at the point of contact, which could be why he is seeing his groundball rate skyrocket. However, his ideal attack angle rate has also dropped 10%, while his hard-hit rate and exit velocities have also dropped. Now, Vientos has the power to drive the ball out of any park, even if he's not swinging for it, and this approach is working for his contact since his zone contact is up 11% to 90.6%, and his overall contact rate is up almost 6%. His swinging strike rate is also down to 11.4% from 15.6%. All of this seems to tell me that the new attack angle and shorter swing (down to 7.4 feet from 7.6) indicate that Vientos' primary goal is to make contact, and he's trusting his raw power to do the rest. I don't love a 10% Pull Air rate from a player like Vientos, and while I acknowledge that this may be a good chance for his batting average, I'm just not sure he's going to do enough damage on his swings to really make a big impact.
Jake Burger - 1B, Texas Rangers
This may be less of a breakout and more of a reversion to previous norms. Burger is hitting .295/.326/.523 with two home runs and seven RBI in 11 games to start the season. His pull rate is also up over 20%, and his fly ball rate is down 20%, so there may be some real approach changes happening here. When I spoke to Burger in the spring, he mentioned that he felt like his pull side swing was "off" last season and that he was flying open too much. Now he's come into this season with a stance that's 10 degrees more closed off, which, to me, is a clear sign that he's working to not fly open and to be able to keep his shoulders closed through his pull-side swings. He's also now making contact five inches further out in front of his center mass, which is a big reason why his pull rate is up. His Pull Air rate is also up to 30.8% from just 13.5% last year. That should be tremendous for power production.
So why isn't he lifting the ball as much overall? Well, part of it could be adjusting to a new swing path. Burger has changed his swing tilt to make his swing a bit steeper and also has a three-degree shift in his attack angle, with the bat less horizontal at the point of contact. That's led to a 9% increase in Ideal Attack Angle rate, but perhaps Burger is still struggling to find the ideal contact point for his steeper swing and is either rolling over too much or getting on top of the ball. It would need to be something we see regularly to get a clear sense of, but I believe that his steeper bat path and more pull-centric approach will lead to plenty of power production this year.
Joey Wiemer - OF, Washington Nationals
Wiemer is such an interesting case. He's hitting .440/.533/.760 in eight games with two home runs and eight runs scored. He's also walking far more than he ever has. However, his launch angle is -1.6 degrees, and his hard-hit rate is down 14.7% from last year, so what is actually going on? Well, for starters, Wiemer closed his stance by 13 degrees. He still has a pretty open stance, but not nearly as extreme as it was before. He's also standing farther up in the batter's box and making contact seven inches closer to his center mass, which means he's letting the ball travel significantly deeper. That's why his attack direction has shifted from a 12-degree pull angle to a 1-degree oppo angle, and his opposite field rate is up to 29.4% from 14.7% last year. Wiemer is also swinging far less than last year, so he's making more contact and shooting the ball to the opposite field more often. He has also flattened his swing by two degrees, cut his attack angle in half, and shortened his swing from 7.6 feet to 7.3 feet. All of that makes sense for a higher batting average. However, his Ideal Attack Angle rate is down from 71.8% to 48.8%, and you're simply not going to do much damage with a negative launch angle. I like that Wiemer is making adjustments to improve his contact, but he's not a full-time player on the Nationals, and this approach doesn't make me feel like he's going to make much authoritative contact unless we can start seeing that launch angle rise back up a bit. If he does do that, I might become a bit more interested, so he's a name to keep an eye on.
Xavier Edwards - 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
We end with one more Marlins hitter. Edwards is slashing .390/.419/.537 in 11 games with one home run, nine runs scored, and two steals. His hard-hit rate is up from 29.4% to 44.7%, and his average exit velocity is up almost 4 mph in the early going. It's possible that this is small sample size nonsense, but we also have a clear swing change for Edwards. His Swing Path Tilt is three degrees flatter, but his attack angle is up two degrees. What this means is that his overall swing is flatter through the zone, but the angle of his bat is a touch steeper as it passes through the contact point. That's actually a solid combination for a contact hitter because it will keep him short to the ball but give him a better chance to get under the ball, create some backspin, and drive the ball into the gaps. So far, Edwards has also seen his Ideal Attack Angle rate rise from from 34.2% to 47.3%. He's also making contact two inches farther out in front, which has led to a 5% increase in his pull rate. His Squared-Up rate has also jumped from 35.7% to 54.8%, which supports the rise in hard-hit rate.
I don't think this is going to make Xavier Edwards a vastly different hitter. I would still be shocked if he hit many more than five home runs. However, I think you're going to see far more doubles, and I think the added authority on his contact is going to lead to more ground balls getting through the infield and a higher batting average. Considering he has good speed and the Marlins like to run, there's a world where Edwards pushed a .290-.300 batting average with 30 steals again. Because he also hits second in the order against right-handed pitchers and plays every day, he could also give you a solid contribution in runs as well. That makes him a great MIF target in most formats.
Ozzie Albies
Jo Adell
Christian Walker
COVERS INTEL: Sonny Gray had a 3.29 SIERA and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 2025 — both numbers ranking sixth in the majors among qualifying starters.
