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For the second time in three years and seventh time in my lifetime, the Cleveland Guardians are in the American League Championship series. This time, they face off against fellow, small-market, analytics-darling the Tampa Bay Rays.

During the 2026 season, the Rays were fifth in MLB at 104 wRC+, ninth in baserunning runs above average at +4.7, 13th in Defense at -12.6, third in starting pitcher ERA at 3.51 (3.79 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.99 (4.35 FIP).

During the 2026 season, the Guardians were a different team after the trade deadline offensively, so I want to provide their wRC+ from August 4th on. The rest of the numbers reflect the full season. So, after the MLB trade deadline, the Guardians were sixth in MLB at 106 wRC+, for the full season, eight in baserunning runs above average at +5.1, ninth in Defense at -7.3, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), and sixth in bullpen ERA 3.54 (3.70 FIP).

Looking at the numbers on paper, if you trust the Guardians are more of the offense they have been since making significant trade deadline additions, these teams are fairly evenly matched. The separator is superlative Tampa Bay Rays starting pitching… and, if you have watched these teams throughout the season, you know that the Rays consistently do ALL the little things to win baseball games. The Guardians often do these things… but definitely not as consistently and relentlessly as Tampa Bay has done. With that said, we will see how these dynamics play out in front of us shortly.

Keys to the ALCS for the Guardians

Leverage Your Lefties: The Rays were the 26th best offense against LHP in 2026 with a 90 wRC+ (the Guardians had a 91 wRC+, so… this is a mutual issue). They were fourth best against RHP at 110 wRC+. So, Stephen Vogt will likely need to maximize his left-handed pitchers value by putting them in position to neutralize Tampa’s offensive threats. Expect some heavy doses of Foster Griffin (game one starter), Joey Cantillo, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski whenever they are available. Junior Caminero at 152 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 146 wRC+, Ryan Vilade 126 wRC+, and Yandy Diaz 114 wRC+ are the primary threats on Tampa’s roster, so working around them (whether with walks or pitching changes) will be crucial to making this plan effective.

Manage Martinez: Angel Martinez had a nightmare ALDS going 0 for 15 with 8 strikeouts. Yet, he had a 152 wRC+ from August 1st onwards and led the team in homers. I suspect the Guardians probably are not going to win the ALCS without Martinez figuring something out. Does seeing how his team managed to win a playoff series without him hitting help him take a breath and stop chasing everything? Might manager Stephen Vogt start Petey Halpin vs. RHP from the Rays? Should he? Figuring out the role Martinez should play in the series ahead will likely prove critical to enhancing the team’s chances to shock the world.

Pounce on the Pen: Aside from not being great against left-handed pitching, the Rays’ other weakness is their bullpen aside from closer Bryan Baker. Now, Baker doesn’t strike out a TON of hitters (9 per 9) and his expected numbers don’t back up his 1.44 ERA from the season… but guys just don’t square him up, and, when they do, they seemingly hit it right at someone. Can the Guardians force the excellent Tampa Bay Rays starters to throw a lot of pitches and get into the bullpen earlier? They’ll have to foul off a lot of pitches to do so because the Rays are strike-throwers and unlikely to issue many walks. If Cleveland can find their way to some BABIP-led hits, some opportunistic home run swings, and some lengthy foul-ball led AB’s, they SHOULD be able to capitalize on a less than ideal Rays’ relief corps.

Resist Revenge: The Guardians eliminated the Rays in the 2022 wildcard series, after the Rays eliminated them in the one-game wildcard playoff in 2013, so this is a rubber match, of sorts. However, the revenge factor goes much deeper, as I’m sure we are all aware and as will be absolutely drilled into our heads by national broadcasters looking for narratives. The Guardians traded Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero to the Rays, and Richie Palacios is a prominent former Cleveland ballplayer, also. Shawn Armstrong and Nathaniel Lowe have played for the Rays… but more prominently, Guardians’ skipper Stephen Vogt was drafted and eventually cut by the Rays. I don’t think MLB teams, as a whole, think about this aspect of the game a lot, but individual players certainly do. I am sure Diaz, Caminero and Palacios would like to place an exclamation point on Cleveland’s decision to move on from each of them, and it will be up to the Guardians’ pitching staff to neutralize all narrative attempts in that direction.

Hold on to Hot Hosey: Jose Ramirez ended the ALDS with a 211 wRC+. If he is feeling good and able to sustain something like this as a hitter, that has the potential to upend this series. However, don’t expect the Rays to spend much time pitching to Hosey if he’s still seeing the ball this well. They will begin to pitch around him/intentionally walk him quickly, which will make it so the rest of the Guardians’ hitters need to come through. Speaking of that…

DeLauter Finds De Lift: After being clearly the Guardians’ best hitter in the 2026 season, DeLauter had a suboptimal ALDS with a 53 wRC+, not taking a walk and running a groundball of 60%. I would guarantee the Guardians will need more from Chase to have a good series this time to be able to go to the World Series. He needs to be a little more patient and find a way to lift some balls off of the infield. He’s more than capable of doing it, but a balky wrist issue may be playing a factor at this point. DeLauter is my key player to watch this series for the Guardians.

Messick Meets Moment: Obviously, the Guardians need Gavin Williams and Cade Smith to continue to be great. But, they somehow managed to beat the White Sox with their best pitcher in 2026, Parker Messick, underperforming. Was Messick off because of how well Chicago knew him? Is he tiring after surpassing career highs in innings pitched? We are about to find out the answers to this question, and Messick will have to return to something closer to his regular season top-3 Cy Young-award finisher form for the Guardians to have a good shot at making the seventh World Series in the history of the franchise.

Unstoppable Force Budges Immovable Object: The Guardians’ pitchers strikeout a TON of hitters, third best in MLB at 9.58 batters per 9 innings. The Rays have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB of 7 batters per 9 innings. Something’s gotta give. Even if the Guardians manage to find some strikeouts, they will need to play excellent defense to compensate for the huge reduction in whiffs their pitchers will get this series as compared to the matchups against the free-swinging White Sox.

Likely Pitching Matchups (All subject to change, to openers, to weather in Cleveland, etc):

Game One, Monday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen, RHP 2.67 ERA (2.81 FIP) vs. Foster Griffin, LHP 3.60 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Two, Tuesday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Freddy Peralta, RHP 3.25 ERA (3.93 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP 2.56 ERA (3.07 FIP)
Game Three, Thursday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Gavin Williams, RHP 3.76 ERA (3.47 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez, RHP 3.10 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Four, Friday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.62 ERA (3.98 FIP) vs. Griffin Jax, RHP 3.53 ERA (3.76 FIP)
*Game Five, Saturday, 8PM ET, @Cleveland: Rasmussen vs. Griffin
*Game Six, Monday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Peralta vs. Messick
*Game Seven, Tuesday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Williams vs. Martinez

*if necessary

The Rays in 2026 were led Junior Caminero 142 wRC+, Liam Hicks 130 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 128 wRC+, Yandy Diaz 125 wRC+, and Jonathan Aranda 123 wRC+.

The Guardians in 2026 were led by Chase DeLauter 131 wRC+, Steven Kwan 114 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 110 wRC+, Angel Martinez 108 wRC+ and Nathaniel Lowe 107 wRC+.

The Guardians will need to be incredibly crisp about their execution in pitching, in plate discipline, in defense, and in baserunning to have a shot of hanging with the Rays. Blink in ANY of those areas, and this will be a very quick playoff appearance. It feels amazing to have this opportunity, but you are never guaranteed another shot. It’s crucial for the Guardians to find a way to take advantage of the moment in front of them and fight their way to a shot a title. It is feasible they do so, and that’s all you can ask.

Glossary:
wRC+ is a measure of overall run production where 100 is league average, adjusted for ballpark effects.
Defense measures a team’s overall run value above average in fielding.
FIP looks at ERA independent from a team’s fielding abilities.

Memorable Blue Jays Playoff Moments

11 Years Ago

Eleven years ago, the Blue Jays triumphed in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rangers.

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Jays faced a daunting challenge. Yet, they responded with a decisive 8-4 victory, scoring early and often.

From the recap:

It started perfectly. Ben Revere put down an excellent bunt single, and Josh Donaldson followed with a home run. Then a Chris Colabello home run put us up 3-0 before the Rangers had their first at-bat.

Second inning: Kevin Pillar hits a solo homer.

Third inning: Donaldson walks, Jose Bautista doubled followed by an Edwin Encarnacion ground out (Bautista tried to go second to third, but Elvis Andrus decoyed him and got him at third), scoring Josh. Colabello doubled, bringing home another. A Russell Martin walk and a Pillar single were up 7-1.

One more run in the seventh got us to 8.

A bit of controversy emerged as R.A. Dickey pitched 4.2 innings, surrendering 5 hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts, and just one earned run. Despite a manageable pitch count of 78, manager John Gibbons removed him just one out shy of qualifying for a playoff win. It seemed strange to take the win away from R.A.

Gibbons brought in David Price, despite Price’s postseason struggles—he had allowed 5 runs in 7 innings in Game 1. Price had posted a stellar 9-1 record with a 2.30 ERA since joining the Jays at the trade deadline.

With only Game 5 remaining, and assuming the Jays would win, Gibbons had already chosen Marcus Stroman to start the finale. Perhaps he wanted to avoid any controversy regarding that decision.

Personally, I would have preferred Price to be available in the bullpen for Game 5, in case Stroman struggled. Dickey deserved the chance to earn the win, and it seemed unnecessary to use Price when Dickey could have pitched deeper, keeping the bullpen rested for the deciding game.

The win set up a very interesting game five.

34 Years ago

The Jays clinched Game 6 of the ALCS, advancing to the World Series for the second consecutive year with a 6-3 victory over the White Sox.

Dave Stewart delivered 7.1 strong innings, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. Duane Ward secured the save, surrendering a solo home run over 1.2 innings and striking out three.

On the offensive side:

Devon White went 3-for-5, capping the game with a ninth-inning home run. Paul Molitor contributed by going 1-for-3 with a walk and a triple, driving in two in the ninth—a key three-run inning, especially after Ward allowed a home run in the bottom half. Pat Borders added a 2-for-4 performance with three RBIs, highlighted by a two-run single in the second and an RBI ground out in the fourth.

The Jays would go on to defeat the Phillies in the World Series.

That team featured an outstanding lineup:

The Guardians have announced their roster for the ALCS, making one change from the 26 guys they brought to the ALDS.

The Guardians have swapped right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi on to the roster for the longer ALCS (with more back-to-back games) and left utility man Daniel Schneemann off the roster.

There was some speculation about if Tanner Bibee would make the roster, but he’s still here after a ROUGH end to the season and terrible brief outing in game four of the ALDS. I don’t think there was a clearly better option for Bibee’s spot, but we will see what kind of exposure Stephen Vogt allows Bibee and unused Matt Festa and Cecconi to see for the series ahead.

Again, I would have liked to see the Guardians take a shot at getting some left-handed bench thump for this series (from Kyle Manzardo or Cooper Ingle, given Ralphy Velazquez is probably not an option at this point), but, hey, they just won a playoff series, so I have to trust their plan for the moment. Just feels like it would be nice to have one more home-run threat to help in potential pinch-hitting spots.

It will be important, given the length of this series and the lack of convenient off-days, for Vogt to use almost all of his 14 pitchers. Finding the right spots to let Cecconi, Festa and Bibee have a chance to contribute may become a crucial part of the Guardians’ chance at upsetting the Rays in the days ahead.

The Atlanta Braves are now into the offseason, which means that it’s time for General Manager Alex Anthopoulos to speak with the media and give his thoughts on both the season that was and what’s on the horizon for the team going forward. There’s a lot (and boy, do I mean a lot) to discuss from the time he spent speaking with the local media via Zoom and as you can imagine, things ran the gamut from the usual GM-speak to some general thoughts on the club, all the while giving everybody the slightest chance to do some speculation about the direction that the Braves are going in for the future — whatever the future may hold due to the impending labor war on the horizon.

I did ask AA about what stood out to him about this team relative to the expectations that he had for this ballclub back on Opening Day and his answer kind of ran parallel to what manager Walt Weiss had been saying about his ideal clubhouse.

“I probably started focusing a little bit too much on talent and less on how the pieces would fit. I was pretty determined this offseason to get back to that…We really got back to really focusing on makeup, character, team fit with everybody that we brought in…That’s probably the one thing I’m most proud of.”

“On paper, we obviously have a lot of talented players but I’ve always said that the one thing that you shouldn’t get wrong is the makeup and the character. You do enough work and make enough phone calls, you’re probably not going to make a mistake on that one. Guys might get hurt and may not play well and you’re going to make those mistakes but in terms of knowing who you bring into the room, you should bat 1.000 on that one. Maybe occasionally someone surprises you and they slide under the line [of character expectations].”

“I’m really proud of the fact that when it came to that, we got back to who we were and what we’re about. We’ve talked about the word ‘culture…’ The culture is the players that you put into it….You bring in the right guys, they come together, those 26 each year (because it’s never the same), they set the culture. They set the attitude, they set the vibes. I feel like we were successful in getting back to that and sometimes you have to…continue to evolve and continue to self-reflect. I feel like we got back to that, which was pretty important. It doesn’t mean you’re in a World Series each year but I love what we were about and the way that the group came together.”

AA did mention that he was proud of this Braves club for keeping it close against the Dodgers in the NLDS when he was asked during the press conference about whether or not he had any regrets that he’d take with him to the offseason. “All the games, except for the last one, really through the seventh inning, they were close,” stated AA. “Obviously Game 2 we won, Game 1 we had the tying run at the plate late so they were all close except for the last one. We had some moments (obviously with guys on base) but we were right there. You wanna get the big hit and you wanna score more runs but you also know you’re facing great arms on the other side too. You’re trying to walk the fine line between ‘Should we have done this’ and being able to respect the other side.”

“You can walk through so many things but you also respect the fact that you’re going to face a great team. The series was close and each game (except for the last one where we didn’t really threaten at the end) was close.”

While plenty of the focus in the aftermath of the Postseason has been on the lack of offense near the end, Anthopoulos has chosen to take the long view of things. He repeatedly mentioned that the team finished in the top 10 in batting average (.246, which was tied for 10th with both the Diamondbacks and the Nationals) and slugging (.409, tied for sixth with the Yankees) while also mentioning that some work needed to be done with their on-base percentage, which was certainly below average at .309 and 28th place in all of baseball.

Still, it doesn’t seem like it’s the type of thing where Alex Anthopoulos would be putting pressure on Walt Weiss to potetially make a change at hitting coach. “If we had a good year, I do believe in continuity from a coaching staff,” stated AA when he was asked about his thoughts on Jeremy Hefner and Tim Hyers, specifically. “That’s not to say that you keep everybody for the sake of keeping everybody. If you think you can get better, you need to make adjustments. I haven’t had any conversations with Walt — this will be me and Walt’s first offseason together and there’s no rush on that type of stuff.”

“I think continuity is important for a few reasons. One, new coach comes in, you don’t know them and you don’t get the trust factor immediately,” continued AA. “It takes time. There’s times where you’re willing to do that and wait and obviously we did it this year with a ton of new staff but it takes time,” continued Anthopoulos. “I think there’s upside for guys to continue to get better now that potentially some of them are going into year two. In terms of [Hefner] and [Hyers] again, we were top-3 in the NL in basically everything [pitching-wise]. From an offensive standpoint, we were top-10 in the Majors in a lot of things. Second half of [2025] our on-base was lot better, it’s a lot of the same guys. This past year, on-base was low but we did all these other things well. We obviously have room to get better so I’d say that I think continuity is important…I think eveyrbody did a really good job and I’m pleased with all of them.”

At multiple points during the press conference, AA was grilled about the positions that he’d be going after during the offseason, with one question going as far as to ask Anthopoulos straight-up if they were going into the offseason looking for specifically two starting pitchers and a left fielder. As you would imagine, AA was cagey about it and stayed cagey as other media members continued to push the issue — especially when it came to players who may or may not be available via trade.

“You gotta remember, our players are going to see that stuff. ‘Hey, he only mentioned these 1 or 2 guys. Why didn’t he include me?’ Now I have an agent calling me and a player calling me…There’s zero upside to that. I get the question and I get trying to piece it all together but I will tell you this: We will go into the offseason open-minded about all kinds of stuff,” stated AA. “That’s how you have discussions and that’s how you get creative. THat’s how things go. You never know — I’ve always said that everyone has a price. There’s always a deal even on a player that you’re unlikely or reluctant to ove. At some point, you include guys. I have no idea where those things are going to go but I don’t think we’re in a position to rule anything out. I just don’t believe in doing it.”

AA did go on to mention that the Braves are planning on using their exclusive negotiation rights with both Mauricio Dubón and Tyler Mahle to the best of their ability, so they’re going to give it a good shot when it comes to retaining those two. When it comes to the team options on both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies, AA didn’t commit to a decision for either player but I’d imagine that it’s safe to assume that both of them will be back.

Anthopoulos did also directly address the Jurickson Profar situation and while he did mention that Profar is under contract for 2027, he definitely stopped short of guaranteeing that Profar would indeed be back next season.

“Those are conversations that we’re going to have,” stated AA. “We know it’s coming, clearly. We know he’s under contract for 2027, we knew the suspension was gonna be a year. That’s obviously a topic we’re going to have to address and talk about, we haven’t had that discussion yet.”

“I wouldn’t be prepared to give you a definitive answer one way or another,” continued Anthopoulos. “That’s not to be cryptic or hedge. I know it’s tough because you guys can only work with what I say…There wasn’t anything for us to do or address [when it came to Profar’s suspension], he was out for the season…What I can tell you is that we’re going to have to sit and talk internally across the board about the whole thing. This is now the time to have those discussions.”

Anthopoulos also talked about Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider and while our article from Sunday touched upon those (and other) topics of discussion during the press conference, further detail really illuminated the matter. “Strider was in Florida throwing bullpens and feeling good,” said AA. “Again, you’re still far away from rehab games, innings and things like that. Schwellenbach had surgery. I think from a planning standpoint, I don’t think it’d be responsible to say ‘Okay, those guys are going to start 30 games and throw 180 innings,’ right? That’s something we’re definitely going to have to account for and talk about when it comes to where we’re going to get our innings next season.”

“I remember telling Grant Holmes even last offseason at the beginning that how he progresses was going to tell us what his potential role would be. As we sit here today, I don’t think you’re going to see us come in and say that we expect those guys to be locks in the rotation with Sale,” said AA as he continued to explain the situation. “I don’t think that’d be a responsible thing to say. We know what they can be when they’re healthy and they’re right and the upside is off the charts but right now because of the lost years for basically both…we’ll just see how the offseason progresses at this point. It’s not something going into November that we’ll have any clarity on going into next Spring.”

AA also seemed to confirm the idea that Didier Fuentes would be starting games in the future — with the future being 2027 (or whenever the next season is) if his audition for a starting rotation role goes well during spring training. “We view him as a starter long-term,” confirmed AA. “We’ve been consistent with that. We know he can be a great reliever — we just saw it. On the one hand, you have a bird in the hand that you know you’ve got a really impactful bullpen arm that we believe it’s real and that he can continue to do this — health-permitting, of course.”

“Those are things we have to weigh. We think there’s tremendous upside,” continued AA. “It’s nice to know you’ve got an impact arm out of the ‘pen but you also know that there’s tremendous upside. He can put it together as a starter since he’s still so young. The development of both the changeup and the slider are pretty encouraging.”

“What we don’t know is the workload. Can he handle 25-plus starts, 150 innings. All those things, we’ll have to have those conversations. And then, can you do that in ‘27? Are you going to go from 70-plus innings and jump to [a higher workload] and those are all things that we’ll have to talk about.”

The General Manager was really gracious with his time on Sunday, as he took questions for an hour — something that is definitely out of the ordinary. While Anthopoulos has never been shy about sharing his opinions on the team, we were certainly in uncharted territory when it came to this particular press conference. That just goes to show just how intriguing the Braves are at the moment. The current NL East Champions have plenty of questions surrounding them with an uncertain offseason looming. It’ll truly be interesting to see how things shake out for this team going forward — and whether or not we’ll have to wait out a long lockout in order to get questions to those answers. We’ll see what happens.

Every team needs to have a player that isn’t quite a starter, but plays a lot more than a player considered strictly a backup. The official term is “utility player”, but it does feel like there needs to be something more than just that title.

“Not quite starter”

“Almost starter”

Whatever it is, Edmundo Sosa was the embodiment of that job, gathering over 250 plate appearances in each of the past four seasons.

2026 stats: 250 PA, .247/.283/.429, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 2.8 BB%, 21.6 K%, 89 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR

What went right

As stated previously, each team needs a player that can fill in most anywhere. After adding outfielder to his resume in 2025, he actually started there the most this year, seeing his name on the lineup card in left field 32 times. Is that a good thing? Not really, but that’s more an indictment on the construction of the roster than anything else.

Sosa did more or less what we have expected him to do all these years he has been here. He’s played a good defense, popped a few home runs, stole a few bases, filled in where necessary.

Right?

What went wrong

Listen, we all know what Sosa is going to do when he goes to the plate. He’s going to swing as hard as possible at any baseball thrown in the vicinity of home plate. His walk rate, even in its meager form, is not a career low for him. He had one a mere tenth of a percentage point lower in 2023, so it’s not unprecedented to see him never take a walk.

It just felt like so much this year, his at bats were not truly productive ones. There would always be the occasional hit that won a game or tied a game in the past, but this year, there weren’t that many “B*tches love Sosa” moments that happened during the season. It was though we expected him to come up short and he didn’t disappoint.

There were flashes of it.

There is even plenty of evidence that Sosa might be the most well liked teammate the team has. He’s just about the perfect player for the role he fills, but there was just a feeling of wanting a little bit more from him in 2026. Each time he was exposed to more playing time, his production fell off. His defense was still fine, but it might be time to confine him to one spot and let that glove flourish.

Final grade: C+

He was just fine, hence the tick above average.

He’s probably going to convince someone to give him a starting job and to be honest, he’s earned it. So long as a team realizes that they are going to get someone whose bat will hover in the 85-95 wRC+ range, his glove should bring enough value that he can bat towards the bottom of a lineup and be productive.

Should his market never really form and the team decides to move on from Alec Bohm, there would be worse things for them to do than give Sosa a shot at starting at third base until Aidan Miller is ready to join the club (assuming he gets to the majors as a third baseman first before he becomes a shortstop).

The promise of a low-scoring game was fulfilled in the NLCS opener, as the Brewers needed only a pair of runs to improve on last postseason’s outcome, having been swept by the Dodgers the last time out. There was plenty of frustration to go around for the Dodgers offensively—especially so considering how effective they were in getting Jacob Misiorowski out of the game early, which ties into the glass-half-full outlook they can take from this loss in what always felt like it was going to be a complicated series.

Through nine innings of Game 1 against the Brewers, the Dodgers offense reached base safely more often than it did in any of the three wins against the Braves in the NLCS. Combining walks and hits, the Dodgers got on base 13 times, including seeing at least one hitter reach base in eight of the nine frames.

This traffic amounted to next to nothing because the issues with runners in scoring position carried over. And unlike in the series against the Braves, the Dodgers’ power was nowhere to be found, as all of their seven hits were singles. Nevertheless, the Dodgers could’ve easily had a better scoring output without power if not for timely double plays that the Brewers relied on to end not one, not two, but three separate innings—most notably getting out of a bases-loaded situation in the second.

As frustrating as this performance might have been, to be this threatening so often against the best the Brewers have to offer could easily be seen as an encouraging sign. Focusing specifically on the power or lack thereof, regardless of how phenomenal the Brewers’ pitching is, this lack of thump was most likely a one-off scenario for an offense that has more than nine hitters capable of punishing a mistake. It’s extremely plausible that the Dodgers’ offense will do more with less before this series is over, maybe as early as Game 2.

Moving on to specifics, with Shohei Ohtani getting his occasional hit here and there, Will Smith has been left holding the bag as the core piece most struggling in this current version of the Dodgers’ offense. Smith was one of the few starting hitters in this game who didn’t record a hit, but he did, however, hit the ball hard in all three of his at-bats with nothing to show for it. The Dodgers’ most disappointing hitter of the regular season, Kyle Tucker, looked locked in, and although he also didn’t record a hit, the quality of the at-bats was impressive—including a couple of walks against Jacob Misiorwoski and Trevor Megill.

Dave Roberts’ respect for the Brewers’ relievers was evident in his lineup construction with a righty/lefty approach one through nine. In that spirit, potential impact off the bench might be key, and there was promise in it as well. Josue De Paula was once again asked to take a key at-bat late in a playoff game and delivered his part. The young outfielder pinch-hit for Kiké Hernández in the ninth with Trevor Megill on the mound, and he helped get the tying run in scoring position by working a two-out walk, ultimately stranded on a Mookie Betts flyout. The ability to rely on a patient hitter of his quality off the bench adds a layer of danger to this offense.

The offseason between 2005 and 2006 was one of great transition for the Cincinnati Reds. You’ll be shocked to be reminded of their disappointing 2005 season – Dave Miley got fired near the midpoint and they went just 1-7 over their final 8 games to finish 73-89 and in last place in the NL Central.

That winter, though, they went into overhaul mode. Veteran 1B Sean Casey was dealt to Pittsburgh and Scott Hatteberg was signed to replace him. Slugging outfielder Wily Mo Peña was flipped to Boston for rotation cornerstone Bronson Arroyo. And the first week of the 2006 season saw them swing a deal for mercurial Cleveland infielder Brandon Phillips in a move that helped solidify their later runs to a pair of NL Central titles.

On January 8th, 2006, Cincinnati signed veteran shortstop Rich Aurilia in free agency in a move that turned out to be more than worth it. Just one day before that, the lone obvious piece of the current future of the Reds was born in Miranda, Venezuela.

That last note hasn’t yet helped the current iteration of the Reds begin their latest overhaul, but catching prospect Alfredo Duno is firmly on their radar as they enter this vital offseason. Veteran catcher Tyler Stephenson will become a free agent within a handful of days of the upcoming World Series, and only Will Banfield and career backup Jose Trevino are on the roster as catching options under team control for 2027.

Trevino missed time during 2026 and hit just .217/.221/.336 in 156 PA for the Reds last season. He’s the one likely penciled in as the ‘starter’ at the moment, and remember this is a Reds club that finished a) in last place in the Central in and b) 28 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers club that just won Game 1 of the NLCS last night over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Upgrading over Stephenson is one of just a billion needs on this roster build, and they’re entering the offseason process having already taken a massive step back at catcher on-paper.

That brings us back to Duno, who at 20 years old already has the spotlight on him as the presumptive Next Big Thing to help turn around the fortunes of this stagnant franchise.

For one, he’s big-big. Listed at 6’2” and 210 lbs, he’s pretty clearly a great bit larger than that. That hasn’t yet precluded his advancement defensively behind the plate, though, and he’s got an arm back there that projects to play well going forward. It’s the offensive upside he provides at a position generally reserved for defense-first proclivities that have him atop the Reds prospect lists and near the top of Top 100 lists overall though, and in 2026 he hit .322/.406/.488 in 138 PA after making it up to AA Chattanooga. That’s just the latest part of a minor league career that’s seen him hit .285/.414/.499 across 1262 PA, including a breakout 2025 season with the Daytona Dragons in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League where he slugged .518 with more walks (95) than strikeouts (91) – and famously had a three-homer game in the Arizona Fall League playoffs.

He reached AA this year and acquitted himself rather well in an admittedly small-ish sample there. Had he performed differently anywhere else, you’d be welcome to consider it a potential outlier there, but he hit there the way he’s hit every single place he’s hit before, too. That lends one to assume that if he hit AA pitching in 2026, the Reds are going to give him the chance to hit AAA in 2027, and hitting AAA pitching puts one on the doorstep of Major League Baseball action.

So, it’s hard not to ignore that at the same time Cincinnati’s main catcher reaches free agency, Cincinnati’s top catching prospect sits on the doorstep of an MLB debut.

Catchers used to be the one position where teams notoriously slow-played advancement to the big leagues. Calling games, the defensive responsibilities, and the rigor of squatting all the time made prepping for one’s first 162 game grind more difficult than at any other position. However, with the DH in play in the National League and PitchCom devices to help with relaying signs and signals, there has been a wave of young MLB catchers breaking into the league at ages that once sounded outlandish.

Ethan Salas, six months younger than Duno, made it into 16 games at the tail end of the San Diego Padres season as a 20 year old and featured in their recent playoff run. Samuel Basallo debuted at age 20 for Baltimore during the 2025 season and by his age-21 year they’d already chosen to move on from stalwart Adley Rutschman. Duno will turn 21 in January.

With a dearth of power bats on the farm, a clear need at the position, and the dwindling team control of superstar Elly De La Cruz, it’s easy to want the Reds to push Duno’s advancement. They aren’t going to do that too much, obviously, but if he hits well at AAA to begin 2027 there’s every reason to believe the Reds will factor him into their big league plans at some point later in the summer. That makes finding a complement to Trevino to begin the year a bit perilous as there is little long-term outlook for a backstop not named Duno going forward.

The lone caveat there is one Sal Stewart, Cincinnati’s 2026 Rookie of the Year candidate who settled in at 1B almost daily after Nathaniel Lowe was dealt away at the trade deadline. He spent ample time at 3B and 2B earlier in the season – the positions where he played in the minors coming up – and any move back to being more flexible defensively for him would open up more PA at 1B and DH for any potential catcher. The Reds often used Stephenson at both 1B and DH in his years on the club, for instance, and keeping that door open for any catcher being brought in could be the one way to entice something more than a career backup hoping for an actual big-league deal to be the player they can bring in for 2027.

It’s still early to get your hopes up for where Duno will hit in the Reds lineup, but not too early to dream about where he fits within the current roster. If he continues on the path he’s laid out so far, he’s going to be a big leaguer in 2027 one way or another.

The answer to whether Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be back on the Yankees next season might be found on their lineup card for Game 3 of the ALDS. In a win-or-go-home game against the Rays, with a righty on the mound for Tampa Bay, Chisholm did not start. In the most crucial game of the year, with him having the platoon advantage, someone else was the choice at second base.

That sound like someone who will be back? Nope. 

But Chisholm, who is headed to free agency, is a high-octane talent with power and speed. He can be a strong defender. He’s got some nifty flair, too, and his athleticism can lead to thrilling plays and moments. 

Even if his Yankee tenure was uneven, he seemed to enjoy the pinstripes and said after the Tampa sweep that he’d like to return, though that’s kind of the pat answer in such situations. It’s always good free agency business to mention the Yankees, too. 

So should the Yankees bring Chisholm back? Here’s a look: 

WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP CHISHOLM

His skill set is immense -- when fully activated, anyway. He had 31 homers and 31 steals in 2025 to join Alfonso Soriano (twice) and Bobby Bonds as the only players with a 30-30 season in pinstripes. 

Chisholm was inspired enough by those numbers to muse this spring about joining Shohei Ohtani, the only player ever to have 50 homers and 50 steals in one year. Didn’t happen, obviously. 

His homer output dipped to 19 this season, but Chisholm, who will be 29 years old in February, stole a career-best 41 bags, which was tied for the fourth-most in the majors. In general, he's a quality baserunner and some metrics paint him as a fine defender at second. 

The upcoming free agent class is generally considered to be meh. Chisholm, even coming off a down season in terms of production and optics, is one of the better hitters available. The Yankees, you might recall, were not exactly an offensive juggernaut while they were getting swept by the Rays.

WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO LET CHISHOLM GO

Grab a lollipop and sit down -- this might take awhile. Chisholm lost 102 points on his OPS from 2025 to 2026 and his strikeout rate, already high, went up. He’s a left-handed hitter who, like many, has problems with same-side pitching. 

His defense can be spectacular or spectacularly annoying. He was part of that gross error-fest in Game 2 against the Rays, making an awkward relay throw to try to turn an unlikely double play. Not surprisingly, the throw went awry. 

After the game, Chisholm said he’d make the ill-advised toss again. Maybe read the room? Early in the season, he admitted he didn’t fully grasp a force out rule.

Chisholm plays with a certain élan, something that often feels needed in corporate Yankeeland, but he’s also not great at harnessing that spirit. When he showed up on the field sucking on a lollipop during a game, he needed a talking-to from Aaron Boone, who was not happy. Fans didn’t think Chisholm’s mid-game treat was endearing, either. 

When Chisholm talked of going Ohtani, his 50-50 bid was greeted with derision by some on social media, rather than giddy anticipation. He was booed when he popped up as a pinch-hitter in Game 3 against Tampa Bay. 

Again, he didn’t start the last game of the season, and that was the second time in the postseason he didn’t start. Boone texted him the news the first time, but did not do it before Game 3 -- and Chisholm said he would’ve liked a heads-up. 

There often seemed to be a disconnect with Chisholm and the Yanks. Make no mistake, the Yankees aren’t free of blame, either. Why couldn’t they get more out of Chisholm?

Verdict

Go. 

Chisholm is a terrific talent and could be good elsewhere, but it feels like his time in pinstripes is over. If they don’t want him back, the Yankees should think long and hard about even extending him the $23-plus million qualifying offer. 

After a down season, Chisholm might take it and try to rebuild his value with what should be a contender again next year. What happened with Trent Grisham and the QO last year might be instructive here, but Grisham was also coming off a big season.

The Yankees have in-house solutions at second in Anthony Volpe, who started both times Chisholm didn’t in the postseason, and even José Caballero. Could they get Luis García Jr., a former second baseman who moved to first, ready to shift back?

The free agent market might work, too. Brandon Lowe hit 35 homers for the Pirates last year and might hit more aiming for the Yankee Stadium short porch all year. Luis Arraez seems like the put-the-ball-in-play type of hitter who could really help a pinstriped offense that sagged last season. How about Gleyber Torres redux?

Heading into the season, the bullpen was probably the area of the Orioles that worried me the most. There were not enough proven arms and the one big signing Mike Elias made to address it, Ryan Helsley, was fresh off a horrible final two months of the season. This could have been really bad! At times, it was really bad.

Yet when the dust settled on the 2026 campaign, the Orioles had the 11th-best bullpen ERA of all teams in MLB. It wasn’t smooth the whole way, but on the whole this group was good enough that if the rest of the team had held up its end of the workload, they wouldn’t have been a drag on a contender, especially by the end of the season when several unexpected names had emerged into solid contributors.

In this week’s episode, I work my way down the list of relievers, from two one-gamers all the way up to Rico Garcia, to see who contributed, who was a mess, and who should and will be back next year. Give it a listen here:

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This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.

As I sat down to write about the Rays triumphant return to the ALCS, I was beset by a nagging question.

The Rays have a nasty habit of playing up to some opponents and down to others. Will that tradition rear its ugly head in the American League Championship Series?

I recognize the absurdity of this question. The Guardians pitching is lights out, and they — like the Rays — are a top organization in the sport. This is a meeting of two very qualified franchises, despite the lack of prestige the follows teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers. And yet, if the Rays are their usual selves, this ALCS shouldn’t be a challenge.

That sentiment brings me back to that nagging worry.

I know that’s not rational. The White Sox swung 80 times in an elimination game and made contact nine times. Brain! What are you thinking? Let’s center ourselves on the more important question: Should the Rays be scared of Guardians pitching after that 21-K demolition of the White Sox?

Twenty-one strikeouts. In a winner-take-all Game 5. Against a White Sox lineup that had already set the previous nine-inning postseason record with 19 Ks just a few days earlier.

Cleveland’s pitchers finished the ALDS with 75 strikeouts in five games, a Division Series record and the fourth most in any postseason series ever. Game 4 and 5 hero Gavin Williams punched out 12, tying the franchise postseason mark, and the bullpen piled on the rest while José Ramírez’s two-run homer provided the only offense in a 2-0 win.

The Guardians are rolling into Tropicana Field on Monday with a staff that just made history, and the narrative writes itself: elite miss-bat stuff meeting a Rays lineup that… well, actually, doesn’t miss with the bat very often at all. The Rays led all MLB teams in contact rate. Their 18.8% strikeout rate was the lowest in the majors, and their 20.7% swing-and-miss rate ranked among the best you’ll ever see watching this sport year in and year out. This is a fundamentally different offensive profile.

If the Rays prioritize putting the ball in play, they should have a far better time than the White Sox did.

The Guardians’ ability to generate swings and misses is legitimate, and Williams in particular can overpower just about anyone on a given night. We’ve seen the Rays face a buzzsaw of a pitcher and succumb before (Cliff Lee in particular still haunts me to this day, but most of our current core of hitters were in pre-school when that happened). This is also a seven game series, which helps considerably, and lessens the fear of needing to face Williams too often.

Lower strikeout rates don’t guarantee runs, but they do reduce the chance of a complete offensive blackout driven by the whiff. Put the ball in play enough times against a staff that just threw a ton of pitches in a short series, and the odds of something positive happening improve.

The bigger concerns for the Rays are more prosaic: executing against a group that just found another gear in October, managing the early innings against Griffin/Messick/Williams, and ensuring their own contact approach doesn’t turn into soft contact against elite stuff.

Cleveland’s pitching is good enough to beat anyone if the Guardians’ hitters (led by the impossibly great José Ramírez) keep providing just enough support. But providing just enough run support is exactly the Rays thing. One-run games are often dismissed as coin flips, the realm of luck, bullpen luck, and the occasional walk-off heroics. For most teams that’s roughly true. For the 2026 Tampa Bay Rays, it was a competitive advantage.

The Rays finished the regular season 25-14 in one-run games, a .641 winning percentage that ranked among the best in baseball. That success in the margins helped turn a solid run differential (736 runs scored, 650 allowed, Pythagorean record around 90 wins) into their surprising 98-64 campaign, the AL East title, and the number one seed.

Cleveland arrives at the Trop, where the Rays dominated this season, with practice in tight contests (they had a 27-22 record in one-run games), and the Guardians just rode elite pitching through a dramatic ALDS comeback. But the Rays also sent the Yankees to Aruba on the backs of one-run games in two of the three games where they swept.

Low-scoring, one-run games are very much on the table in this series.

Tampa Bay’s regular-season edge in those situations is encouraging, and enough to say I’m not scared of Cleveland, but postseason baseball amplifies small samples and individual performances in ways that cannot be predicted. Like Williams and Ramírez for the Guardians, the Rays will need their a few players to step up along the way to secure another trip to the World Series.

Given the year we’ve seen from the likes of Rasmussen, Caminero, and the red hot Mesa Jr, I believe.