We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated.

Number one on both Keith Law and Ben Clemens’ list of top free agents is, of course, Tarik Skubal. Skubal turns 30 on the 20th of this month. He won the AL Cy Young in 2024 and 2025 (this year he split time between the AL and NL). He had a terrific 2026 season: a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts, a 12-7 record, 186 strikeouts in 158.2 innings, and just 27 walks.

Career, he is 66-44 with a 3.02 ERA and a 22.7 bWAR.

The only downside is his injury history. Three elbow surgeries since college, one this past season. But then, he’s made 88 starts in the last three seasons.

Keith Law said:

Skubal is the obvious star of this free-agent class, a No. 1 starter on any club when he’s healthy, although we didn’t see that version of Skubal as much in 2026 as we did in 2024 and 2025, when he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and was worth 6+ WAR each season (using either version of WAR). He can show three plus pitches — his upper-90s four-seamer, wipeout changeup with excellent arm speed and some fading action, and a slider that plays above its “shape,” due in part to its velocity, up to 92-93. He’s posted walk rates below 5 percent in four straight seasons, consistently limits hard contact, and doesn’t let hitters pull the ball in the air that much, so his BABIPs have come in better than league average in every year of his career — he’s at .281 overall and has never allowed a BABIP of .300 in any season, which is Clayton Kershaw-level pitching.

Clemens:

There are no bad free agent markets for players as good as Skubal, which made his contract easier to forecast. Teams pursuing his services want Skubal specifically, not Skubal or someone like him. He’s the best free agent in the class by such a wide margin that his market is more or less separate from the rest. If you’re looking for a good pitcher who might turn in an ace-level season, there are a few options. If you’re looking for an ace, it’s just Skubal. Thus, the question is how much he’ll eclipse the old record contract for a pitcher, not whether he will.

Clements figures he will get a 10-year contract at $38 million a year, for a total of $380 million, taking him to his age 39 season.

This is not only a blast from the Cubs past, but the view of bleacher fans shows hairstyles and dress styles for what could be said to be “average” fans in the mid-1980s.

Honestly, the fans you see don’t look that much different from what you’d see in the bleachers today. It is sobering for me, personally, to realize that everyone you see in this photo is at least in their 60s now, possibly older.

Anyway.

The photo is a little bit washed out, so the numbers on the board aren’t that easy to read. I put it through Photoshop, did a little bit of adjustment on the brightness and contrast and got this closeup view of the scoreboard:

It’s 3:45 and we’re in the top of the third inning, so this is a game that likely began at 3:05. There are no NITE GAME indicators on any of the other games, so this would at first glance appear to be a Sunday afternoon, possibly in the Cubs’ NL East title year of 1984.

This is where you go wrong with assumptions. The batter is Garry Templeton, so the Cubs are playing the Padres. (Yes, the city names are still a bit blurry, but Templeton was a Padre from 1982-91, so it’s got to be the Padres. We also know it has to be in the 1983-85 time frame, because that’s when those beer ads were on the board.

But I looked through all the Cubs/Padres 1984 games — including the two NLCS games — and nothing matched the Cubs having a 4-0 lead in the top of the third, having scored two runs in each of the first two innings.

Instead, this game was played Tuesday, July 9, 1985, in front of 33,085 on what’s clearly a gorgeous summer day at Wrigley. The pair of two-run innings were both courtesy of Ryne Sandberg — he hit two-run homers in each of the first two innings. Not an easy thing to do, incidentally! The Cubs got a couple more runners on base in the first after Sandberg homered with Billy Hatcher on base. Then in the second, a groundout was followed by a single by Steve Trout and a fly ball by Hatcher before Sandberg homered again.

In the top of the third, Bruce Bochy, then the Padres catcher, grounded out. That brought up Templeton, which is what we see on the board. There’s one out and one strike on Templeton. He eventually grounded to third base in this at-bat.

The Cubs won the game 7-3. Sandberg went 3-for-5 with three runs scored, including the pair of two-run homers. Hatcher, who later went on to have good years in Houston and Cincinnati after the Cubs ill-advisedly traded him for Jerry Mumphrey, went 3-for-4. Trout threw seven strong innings and got the win.

There were some night games on this day so I’m not sure why NITE GAME was not shown on the board. After this win the Cubs were 43-38, in fourth place but just 5.5 games behind the first-place Cardinals, theoretically still in the NL East race. But pitching injuries killed that team and they went just 34-46 the rest of the way and finished fourth at 77-84, 23.5 games out of first place.

Just another little slice of life from Wrigley Field, more than 40 years ago.

I recently came across this post on X which listed the players the Phillies have signed to one-year contracts over the past few seasons.

There’s a saying that “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract,” but that list seems to work against that belief. To be fair, most of those guys weren’t signed to be major contributors, and they did find some usable bench players (Brad Miller, Johan Camargo) over the years. But there were some players – particularly relievers – who they expected to be at least semi-major contributors. Sadly, the best season out of any of them was Craig Kimbrel. (Kimbrel was actually very good for much of the year before he collapsed late in the season and the playoffs.)

As it turns out, there’s usually a reason why players sign for one-year deals. If there was a lot of optimism regarding how good these players were going to be, they would likely be attracting multi-year offers.

Looking ahead to the 2027 season, the Phillies once again have some holes to fill, and they only have so much money to fill them. Many fans are dreaming of filling one of the outfield spots with a free agent like Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena.

I expect the Phillies to be in the mix for those players, but so will a lot of teams, and it isn’t clear if the Phillies can make the best offer. Unless you’re the Dodgers, teams generally can’t have high priced players at every position. While the pending player lockout might change the financial outlook for the Phillies, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll be able to simply outspend themselves out of their current fringe of contention status.

The Phillies also might not want to lock themselves into yet another multi-year contract for a player’s decline phase. Sometimes those deals work out, but it isn’t hard to imagine one of them turning into Nick Castellanos 2.0.

The best alternative, of course, is to start developing young players to fill those holes. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Phillies could emulate the World Champion Brewers and call up a Cooper Pratt or Jackson Chourio? But based on the state of the minor leagues, the Phillies do not have many players who they can project to be regular contributors next year. (They REALLY need Aidan Miller to hit!)

Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Phillies have to once again turn to a few one-year contracts to fill out their starting lineup, bench, and bullpen. Maybe they get lucky this time around and can find players who actually provide good value. But it seems like more often than not, what they’ll end up with is the next Adolis Garcia or Jordan Romano.

I didn’t move.

Not when Sam Antonacci doubled to open the second game of the American League Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. Not when Kyle Teel singled him home. And certainly not when Andrew Benintendi delivered a two-run single that helped the Chicago White Sox build a four-run lead before the Astros could record their second out.

There I sat, practically frozen in place, convinced that the slightest movement might somehow bring Chicago’s offensive outburst to an abrupt end.

Never mind that I was hundreds of miles from Daikin Park in Houston. Never mind that the White Sox players had absolutely no idea who I was, what I was wearing or whether I had gotten up to use the bathroom. And never mind that my position on the couch had precisely zero influence on a baseball traveling toward home plate at nearly 100 mph.

The White Sox were scoring. I wasn’t moving.

It wasn’t until Tristan Peters singled home Chicago’s fourth run and the inning finally ended that I allowed myself to get comfortable again.

Welcome to the wonderfully irrational world of sports superstitions, where otherwise reasonable adults become convinced that a lucky jersey, a particular snack or the precise arrangement of living room furniture might determine whether their favorite team wins or loses.

And apparently, I’m not alone.

A little luck never hurt anyone

My postseason wardrobe consisted of White Sox jerseys.

Every game. No exceptions.

When football season arrives, the situation becomes considerably more complicated. I pay attention to whether my team (either the Chicago Bears or Jacksonville Jaguars) is playing at home or on the road, choosing my jersey accordingly. I try to eat the same foods, snack at the same times and sit in the same location.

It’s definitely easy for my wife. Honestly, she probably thinks it’s a little obnoxious. 

Sometimes a particular shirt becomes lucky. Other times, a hat gets blamed for a loss.

I understand how ridiculous this sounds.

I also know that if the White Sox had continued scoring every time I remained motionless during the playoffs, there’s a good chance someone would have needed to bring me dinner.

But the impulse to create rituals around sporting events isn’t unusual. A 2018 study published in Sport Management Review examined how superstitions influence the experience of watching sports. Researchers found that these behaviors were associated with fans’ emotional states during games and that more superstitious fans were more likely to attribute outcomes to outside influences such as fate or officiating.

In other words, fans aren’t necessarily trying to control a baseball game. They’re trying to control how helpless they feel while watching one.

A separate study published in Frontiers in Psychology in 2021 interviewed 24 soccer fans in Israel and identified two important elements of their superstitions: timing and location. Some fans performed rituals at specific moments. Others attached significance to where they watched games or sat inside stadiums. Researchers concluded that these behaviors could help fans manage the uncertainty and stress associated with sporting events.

That sounds suspiciously familiar. Especially the part about not moving.

The unwritten rules of being a fan

Superstitions aren’t exclusive to baseball.

Football fans develop routines around kickoff times, lucky clothing and where they sit. Some refuse to watch field-goal attempts. Others avoid speaking during important plays.

Hockey fans have their own rituals, sometimes refusing to celebrate a lead too early or changing where they stand during a power play.

Basketball fans might stay in the same chair during a shooting streak, wear a lucky shirt or refuse to discuss a possible victory before the final buzzer.

The details differ, but the underlying idea is remarkably consistent: Something good happened while I was doing this, therefore, I must keep doing this.

Of course, that logic has one enormous problem: Correlation isn’t causation.

A White Sox home run doesn’t happen because I happen to be wearing a black jersey instead of a white one. A missed field goal isn’t the result of someone opening a bag of potato chips at the wrong moment.

And yet, when the stakes increase, so does the temptation to believe.

In a 2006 study published in the Journal of Applied Social Psychology, researchers found that elite athletes were more committed to their rituals when the importance of the competition and the uncertainty surrounding its outcome increased. The research focused on athletes rather than spectators, but the emotional connection isn’t difficult to recognize.

A meaningless baseball game in May might not require any special preparation.

But Game 7 of the World Series? Suddenly, every article of clothing becomes a potential competitive advantage.

Baseball’s original creatures of habit

If fans are superstitious, baseball players have been perfecting the practice for generations.

Hall-of-Famer Wade Boggs famously followed an elaborate routine that included eating chicken before games, taking batting practice at specific times and following carefully established habits throughout the day. Boggs, who finished his career with 3,010 hits and a .328 batting average, believed luck played a meaningful role in his success.

In an August 2025 interview on MLB’s The Road to Cooperstown podcast, Boggs reflected on the importance of those rituals.

“I’ve always said I’d rather be lucky than good,” Boggs told MLB.com.

That might be one of the most revealing statements ever made about baseball superstition.

Boggs was unquestionably good. He won five batting titles, earned 12 All-Star selections and became one of the greatest contact hitters of his generation. But even with all that ability, he wanted every possible advantage, real or imagined.

Other players have taken their routines to even greater extremes.

Former major league pitcher Turk Wendell became known for brushing his teeth between innings, chewing black licorice and observing a collection of unusual habits throughout his career. Hall-of-Famer Larry Walker was famously attached to the number three, incorporating it into his uniform number and other aspects of his routine. And former Chicago Cubs outfielder Moisés Alou was among the players who openly discussed unconventional habits involving his hands and batting preparation.

Baseball has always been filled with characters whose rituals might seem strange anywhere outside a clubhouse.

But are modern players any different? Not necessarily.

A 2025 study published in the Journal of Sports Sciences examined superstitious rituals among athletes through interviews and focus groups involving 30 participants. Researchers identified connections between rituals, confidence, anxiety and the perceived importance of competition.

A more recent systematic review, examining 27 studies, likewise found that superstitious behavior remains common in sports.

There isn’t sufficient evidence to say today’s major leaguers are more or less superstitious than players from 20 or 50 years ago.

What seems clear is that the desire for routine hasn’t disappeared simply because the game has become more analytical. Baseball now measures everything from spin rate and launch angle to bat speed and the movement of a pitch. But there still isn’t a statistic capable of explaining why a player feels more comfortable wearing the same socks during a winning streak.

October brings out the believers

And that brings us to the final four teams who were in the running for the 2026 World Series.

Every pitch matters. Every baserunner creates anxiety. Every questionable managerial decision threatens to send thousands of people searching for something, anything that they can control.

In Cleveland, fans had endured a championship drought dating to 1948. That’s 78 years of waiting for another World Series title. Milwaukee had never won a World Series, despite reaching the Fall Classic in 1982. Tampa Bay had reached the World Series twice, in 2008 and 2020, without winning a championship. And Los Angeles, with a considerably more recent history of postseason success, entered this year’s championship series attempting to defend its title again and pull off a rare threepeat.

Once the pennants were won, we were guaranteed to have a first-time World Series winner, but the franchise histories weren’t quite parallel.

The city of Milwaukee had experienced a title, albeit under the Braves moniker and nearly 70 years ago. The Brewers fan base hadn’t even seen a pennant for 44 years.

The Rays had been there twice, but couldn’t finish the job.

Can the Rays finish what previous teams couldn’t?

There is no reliable evidence that either fan base is more superstitious than the other. But with a World Series championship on the line, it’s difficult to imagine that every lucky shirt, preferred viewing location and carefully maintained game-day routine didn’t get put to the test.

And if Milwaukee started its run of four wins in five games to win it all while a fan happened to be sitting in an uncomfortable position? I suspect that person remained there for quite some time.

Does any of it really matter?

Here’s where I have to acknowledge something.

I don’t genuinely believe that the White Sox lost to Cleveland in the ALDS because I wore the wrong jersey.

I don’t believe that getting up to refill my drink caused a strikeout.

And I certainly don’t believe that a team of professional athletes needs me to remain motionless on my couch to score runs.

At least, that’s what I tell myself.

The scientific explanation is more compelling than the supernatural one. Superstitions give people a sense of control in situations where they have almost none.

For athletes, rituals may help establish a familiar routine, regulate emotions and improve confidence. For fans, the benefit can be psychological rather than competitive. Research suggests that superstitious behaviors can influence how spectators experience games, even without influencing what happens on the field.

There’s also something wonderfully communal about it: Sports fans recognize these behaviors in one another.

We understand why someone refuses to wash a jersey during a winning streak. We might laugh at a friend who insists on eating the same meal before every game, but we’ll probably ask what was on the menu after the team wins.

We know it doesn’t make sense, but we do it anyway.

Perhaps that’s because being a sports fan has never been entirely rational. We invest enormous amounts of time, money and emotional energy into teams whose success we cannot control. We celebrate victories as though we contributed to them, and mourn defeats as though we personally failed. We develop attachments to players we’ve never met and stadiums we may never visit.

And somewhere along the way, we convince ourselves that a little luck might make the difference.

The White Sox season ended despite my carefully selected jerseys and game-day routines.

I could take that as proof that superstitions don’t work. I could abandon the rituals, sit wherever I want and wear whatever happens to be clean.

But when the White Sox return to the field next spring, I’ll probably reach into the closet for the same jersey. I’ll settle into my usual spot. And if Chicago starts scoring runs?

I’m not moving.

Happy Sunday everybody! Here’s roughly half a tablespoon of links. Not a lot of links, but quite a lot of cayenne powder. Much to think about.

In Mariners news…

• Genuinely grateful to this post by the MLB Instagram account for reminding me of that Lázaro homerun.

Around the league…

• Ty France is hoping that his major bounce back last season will finally net him a big payday in the upcoming free agent scramble.
• New testimony in the case against Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz alleges that the inside information bettors would receive stopped being available in 2024 after the scandal surrounding Ippei Mizuhara prompted heavier scrutiny.
• Billy Beane, the man behind the Moneyball A’s, staunchly defended Yankees GM Brian Cashman in an interview amid Yankees fans continuous calls for his immediate removal.

David Peterson entered 2026 as the longest tenured New York Met. Over the course of the offseason leading up to the 2026 season, so many of Peterson’s former compatriots either were dealt away or signed elsewhere. Thus, David Peterson was the last man standing who went back to the prior ownership group. Peterson was looking to get back on track after a dismal second half of 2025, which came immediately after an All-Star first half of 2025. And with free agency looming at the end of the season, it was imperative that Peterson play well enough to be able to get a nice payday in his first chance at the open market.

Unfortunately for David Peterson and for the New York Mets, he wasn’t able to recapture any past glory, instead falling further from his top form of 2024 and the first half of 2025. His first start was 5.1 innings of scoreless baseball against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and after that everything went downhill. In 16 games with the Mets in 2026 (half of those starts), he had a 6.09 ERA in 68 innings, striking out 63 while walking 30 batters. He had a 1.647 WHIP, with a 10.9 H9 and a 67 ERA+, all career worsts. He was worth -1.0 bWAR, which was also a career worst and was an incredible freefall from the two seasons before.

The Mets didn’t lack for wanting or trying to fix Peterson. They moved him to and from the bullpen, trying to find a role that would suit him and the changes to make that could fix him. And as the team went deeper and deeper into their own free-fall, it felt more and more imperative to find a way to plug as many of the holes as possible, whether that was by fix or by removing.

For Peterson, it ended up being the latter. On June 25th, Peterson was traded to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for minor league first baseman Cole Mathis. Thus went the longest tenured Met, and started what would become a major sell-off for the Mets ahead of the trade deadline. With the Cubs, Peterson was able to recover a little bit, appearing in 16 games with Chicago (15 of them starts) with a 3.70 ERA with a 1.369 WHIP and a 114 ERA+, and rebounding with 0.9 bWAR which brought him back up to just -0.1 bWAR over the course of the whole season.

After just over six seasons with the Mets, Peterson ended with a New York career 4.31 ERA, 677 strikeouts, a 94 ERA+ and 5.9 bWAR. Beyond that, he collected several accolades and big moments with the Mets. He was both an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist in 2025. He was a big part of the Mets 2024 playoff and postseason run, recording a save in Game 3 of the Wild Card series to send the Mets to the NLDS and got a win in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Phillies. He was the first lefty to throw a complete game shutout with the Mets since Steven Matz, throwing one against the Nationals in June 2025. Even with the inconsistencies and the disappointments, there were also some triumphant moments in Peterson’s time with the Mets.

Now, after a somewhat bounceback second half with the Cubs, Peterson enters free agency for the first time in his career. It will be a crazed free agency with most of it probably happening before the inevitable lockout amid CBA negotiations in December. Peterson might end up getting less money or less suitors because of it, and a potential reunion with the Mets seems highly unlikely. So, unfortunately for David Peterson and the Mets, the final memories of David Peterson in a Mets uniform will be marred with the frustration and misery of a failure of a Mets season where David Peterson was one of many not-insignificant problems that plagued the Mets.

Meet the Mets

Reactions continue to pour in regarding the mass layoffs at SNY that were announced on Friday. “The real reason I’m sick to my stomach is because there are a lot of superb people who are great at what they do,” Sal Licata said on a livestream on Friday. “I’ve worked at a lot of places over the years, part-time and things like that, and none of them compare to SNY.” He added that if it were up to him, he would have stayed there his entire career.

“It’s overall AWFUL for the people most-affected but, after nearly 7 years there, I was lucky enough to work with pretty much everybody & am confident the cream will rise to the top,” Michelle Margaux tweeted.

“We all know the unfortunate realities of a changing industry, but that doesn’t make days like yesterday any easier,” wrote Steve Gelbs, also on Twitter. “So many of those affected weren’t just colleagues. They weren’t even just friends. They were family. Incredibly talented, creative people I’ve long admired who made this job feel like anything but work.”

“Hadn’t been here long, but felt right away that SNY was a special place where people cared about their work, prioritized joy in a cynical industry, and loved baseball the way their audience does and deserves. I know those of us left will continue to do that. But I’m heartbroken,” tweeted SNY MLB Insider Chelsea Janes.

Around the National League East

Paul Casella of MLB.com ran down the best and worst case scenarios for each member of the Phillies’ projected 2027 starting rotation.

The Nationals’ extension of Jacob Young potentially muddies the future for Dylan Crews in DC, writes Sam Sallick at Federal Baseball.

Jessica Camerato of MLB.com examined three Nationals pitchers who could be key to the team’s success next season.

Around Major League Baseball

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger were named the Platinum Gold Glove winners in the National League and American League, respectively.

Mike Petriello of MLB.com ranked all 30 MLB rosters as they stand right now heading into free agency. The Mets came in at number 6.

The Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has rebranded itself from the RailRiders to the Highlanders in a nod to the Yankees’ original name when they relocated from Baltimore.

Reliever Jyun-Yue Tseng of Taiwan’s Fubon Guardians is entering Major League Baseball’s posting system and will be available to teams to sign as a free agent until December 22.

Five retired umpires (Joe West, Tom Hallion, Gerry Davis, Larry Vanover and Jerry Layne) are suing over their MLB retirement plan, saying they are owed additional money.

The federal trial of Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz continued on Friday, as a government witness testified that the inside information he used to bet on Clase’s pitches dried up after the gambling scandal involving Shohei Ohtani’s former interpreter, which increased scrutiny on gambling in the sport.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Grace Carbone continued our season review series with Nick Morabito’s debut season.

This Date in Mets History

Happy birthday, Fonzie!