Worldwide Sports News

Welcome to our series grading every member of the San Diego Padres’ 40-man roster. The roster being evaluated is current as of Oct. 18, prior to the end of the World Series. Because of that, it will include players who will be free agents once the postseason concludes. Each player will be graded on their performance in the 2026 season, including the playoffs. That performance will be weighted based on how much time the player spent with the team (availability is the best ability). 

The Rule 5 Protectee

The Padres’ No. 30 prospect, Garrett Hawkins, was drafted by San Diego in 2021. In 119 games (237.2 IP) in the minors, the righty has posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 307 strikeouts. After undergoing Tommy John in 2024, Hawkins transitioned into the bullpen in 2025. That transition was seamless, with Hawkins posting a 1.50 ERA and 80 strikeouts across 60 innings of work.

Overall Grade: C+

Because of that production, Hawkins was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft ahead of the 2026 season. He was believed to be a candidate to bolster the Padres’ pitching staff this year but struggled in the minors. His strikeout numbers were still solid with 65 Ks across 54 1/3 innings, but he couldn’t limit runs the same way he had in ‘25 (5.47 ERA).

The 26-year-old righty features an otherworldly fastball and serviceable slider and changeup to go along with it. That pitch mix makes him quite similar to former San Diego closer Robert Suarez. Hawkins’ command struggles in 2026 were the reason for his downfall. He allowed 13 extra walks this season in 5 1/3 less innings pitched.

Still, Hawkins remains a potential contributor for the Friars’ bullpen in 2027. With a solid performance in Spring Training, Hawkins could wind up on the Opening Day roster depending on which relievers the Padres end up retaining this offseason. With the potential departures of Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and Adrian Morejon this offseason, Hawkins could become an important piece for San Diego in the years to come.

The past couple of seasons have not gone as planned for the Arizona Diamondbacks finishing just outside of the playoff picture every season since their magical 2023 World Series run. What we all hoped would be the makings of a powerhouse turned out to be more of a team that struggled to turn a corner from a middling 3rd wild card type to a 90+ win a season powerhouse. Going into the 2026-2027 offseason it is perhaps time for this team to receive a bit of a change of identity if the goal is to turn a corner. That being said, owner Ken Kendrick has already gone on record saying that the payroll is likely to come down from the record highs of 2026. So the question is, does this team have a realistic path to finally turning a corner?

For this plan, I chose 85 projected wins as the benchmark. The 2027 projections I used in this article for the 2027 roster are projections from a Marcel-style WAR model (method by Tom Tango), built on FanGraphs WAR, as of Oct 31, 2026. This is due to the mainstream projections for 2027 not being out just yet. As currently constructed, with no additions, the 2027 D-backs project for about 80 wins (79.9; preseason projections carry roughly ±8 wins of uncertainty). The 85 number comes from me running many many offseason scenarios, and 85 was about the ceiling I could get the projections to with this team with realistic financial resources and realistic trade values. Those I will be outlining in the next section.

The Resources

To help answer that question, I think a good place to start is what resources does this team realistically have going into the offseason. On October 3rd, Jack Sommers did a phenomenal job outlining what the Dbacks financial situation likely looks like heading into the offseason with roughly 162.8M already committed. I suggest you read that article to get the full breakdown of what all that number entails. The 2026 baseline was 192.8M LRD or about 30 million more than what they currently have pledged. It is also likely the team non-tenders Pavin Smith which could save an additional 2 million as well as trimming some money around arbitration contracts, however for the purposes of this article, lets be optimistic and assume Kendrick meant what he said and this team has about 25M to spend this offseason or a small reduction in payroll at just a 2.6% drop.

In addition to money, lets look at what the Dbacks realistically have available to trade:

I will be the first to acknowledge that these trade values are a bit hand wavy as it is really impossible to know how everyone in this organization is valued. However, I attempted a methodology that included future production projections as well as contract and years of control while sprinkling in some prospect status using MLB Pipeline FV. This list is far from perfect, but it passed some of the initial smell tests so I’m going to go with it.

So how much trade value do they realistically have? For some context here, I applied the same methodology to a list of front line starters and this is what I got:

What I gathered from this? The Dbacks are going to have a really hard time acquiring impact front line starting pitching via trade given the resources they have. All four premium chips together (Lawlar, Waldschmidt, Bratt, Fernandez) come to about $45–78M at market.

Next lets try the same table but for left handed impact bats:

So a Pasquantino-level bat (10–18): one premium chip, or two secondary pieces. That’s something like a Troy + Dix package, or maybe a Drake + Groover package. Not really great either especially considering the years of control you would be trading away for a pretty 1 dimensional type player. Do you trade Troy + Morillo for a platoon bat like Colt Kieth or a 28 year old who strikes out at a 30% clip in Kyle Stowers?

So does the trade market really make sense to go out and try and acquire the impact level talent (2-3WAR players) this team needs? Probably not as much as you would think.

How to Get to 85+ Wins?

This is where things really get interesting. In almost every scenario I modeled to get this team to 85+ wins, it involved roughly the same strategy. Essentially completely overhaul the starting rotation. The starting rotation as currently constructed is the teams Achilles heal. The D-backs’ rotation as currently constructed projects in the bottom third of MLB (about 21st-23rd measured by the author’s model), with Merrill Kelly projected at under 1 WAR per 180 innings and Corbin Burnes’s projection limited by his return from Tommy John surgery.

The rotation is the largest weakness on the current roster: it projects about 21st of 28 clubs and roughly 1.7 WAR below an average rotation, across some 870 innings. First base projects even lower relative to the league, but it’s one lineup spot; the rotation’s gap is bigger in total wins and cheaper to close. That’s why most paths to 85 wins start there, with a first-base/left-handed bat and a bullpen floor as the secondary priorities.

Another common theme, was trading away Ketel Marte in order to free up capital. According to my best estimates, trading away Ketel Marte saves this team about 13.75M of LRD payroll flexibility in 2027.

The Moves

Path A: Two free-agent starters + 4 trades (85.3 wins at ~$187.3M)

Path B: One free-agent starter + 4 trades (85.0 wins, $181.9M payroll)

Conclusion

This exercise is limited by my ability to accurately value the players trade value, however I gave it my best effort. Ultimately that value is going to vary from team to team at how they value them based off of their own methods and data that I don’t have access to. One of the biggest variables I found while doing this was what the value of Ketel Marte was going to be. To do that I really focused on the teams that I thought had the biggest need and would be willing to take on the extra baggage he brings along with the most surplus of starting pitching.

The other thing that was interesting to me was all roads apparently go through Trevor Rogers! My models really like him from a starting pitcher projected wins added per dollar amount rate. You could certainly argue for swapping Rogers for Soroka especially because it has been reported Soroka has interest in returning, however my projections only project about 1.8 WAR for Soroka compared to 2.9 WAR for Trevor Rogers even though Rogers also has some durability concerns.

On the offensive side, guys like Colt Keith and Lawrence Butler may not be the names people were hoping for. However Colt Keith I believe could be had given 2nd base being a real weakness in Detroit that Tommy Troy could fill and Keith’s production against righties has been pretty steady .336 regressed xwOBA vs RHP, 77th percentile, steady from 2024–26. 3B is also freed up if Nolan Arenado really is willing to move to first, however Keith is not as good of a 3rd basemen compared to Arenado. Although Keith has played some 1B. My models also really likes Butler in that he is left handed and has been steady against righties xwOBA .347 / .320 / .339 (2024–26) with top end bat speed and exit velocity. He would mostly DH vs righties.

At the end of the day, it is impossible to know the direction the Dbacks will go. Recently there was some reporting the team had interest in young controllable starting pitching, but that is certainly different than tearing this rotation apart. Also the shear volume of trades make both of these scenarios unlikely given how hard it is to make trades and the condensed offseason due to the lockout.

For me, I like both of these scenarios because I was able to keep the big 3 of the bullpen intact while also staying within the financial constraints of the team, while also avoiding completely gutting the farm although it does take a hit. What do you guys think?

I spent the week going over what I felt were the five most important stories of the season. On Monday, I wrote about the pitching and all of the ways that part of the team foiled it. On Tuesday, I tied Bryce Eldridge’s outstanding age-21 season to the team’s overall player development success. Wednesday was all about praising Rafael Devers for sticking it to his haters. Thursday was about saying goodbye to Mike Krukow. And yesterday, I declared that Buster Posey had tainted his legacy with his handling of the anti-Pride Night protest. Here are some others I considered spotlighting this past week.

Tony Vitello

Yes, it was a big deal how much the Giants spent on the manager’s position and the guy they went with to follow in the footsteps of Bruce Bochy, Gabe Kapler, and Bob Melvin. It was a big gamble with a lot of obvious downside and that’s where the play wound up going. It is possible that his “rookie” status caused a lot of the problems he and the team experienced. This is why it didn’t grab Top 5 status for me: we might still be in the prologue. He did not make a positive impression, that much is clear. If it had worked out as intended (the Giants make the playoffs), I might’ve also folded it into the Buster Posey aspect of this season.

The hitting group

For a minute there, the offense was pretty good. You can see the Giants trying to become this year’s Brewers or last year’s Blue Jays. But the injury pileup really does make it difficult to attempt a clean analysis.

But, obviously, Casey Schmitt broke out. Drew Gilbert showed why he has been a prospect able to stay in a team’s plans. Bryce Eldridge stepped into a version of the guy he’s projected to be. Victor Bericoto seems like he might be something — at worst, an immediate replacement for Heliot Ramos. Daniel Susac might be a perfectly fine replacement for Patrick Bailey specifically because of how well his bat plays.

Logan Webb’s partial decline

I’ve said it too many times recently, but it really does seem like Logan Webb has hit the 1,000 MLB innings wall. This is the point when the injuries begin to pileup. Or, he could start to separate himself from his peers and continue pitching on a Hall of Fame-esque track. He wound up having a pretty good season despite the knee injury that caused him to miss around 6 starts and despite the frequency with which he was shelled. From 2023-2025, he was a 4.5-5 fWAR pitcher. This year, his 3.1 fWAR in 27 starts had him on track to being around 3.8 fWAR… or a 4-WAR pitcher. That’s a step down anyway you want to look at it, but there’s always the chance that he does not go the way of Lincecum, Bumgarner and Cain, who all fizzled out at this point in their careers.

The trades

Along the same line as the farm system, I thought it was worth looking at the trades the team has made the past two years which have worked out in this narrow window of around 12 months. Their deadline pickups from this season have also offered flashes of quality that stokes similar hope for the future as the draft component of player development has done. In other words, Anthony Molina looks like a useful major leaguer already. The Giants were able to turn Patrick Bailey into Matt Wilkinson and Carson Bolemon.Henry Lalane, Miguel Mendez, Ramon Marquez, Kaeden Kent, and Marcelo Mayer? All very solid pickups.

Attendance

We heard about attendance for a good chunk of the season as it looked like the franchise was on course to break last year’s mark (2,925,823), but the team’s poor performance likely contributed to the team coming up short (2,856,810). Anecdata-wise, it sure did seem like most nights featured a loud contingent of fans for the visiting team; and, of course, Oracle Park is basically Dodger Stadium North now that the rivalry is dead.

But the team was strutting and the beat writers were dutifully pointing that out wile the team was being picked apart for being so bad. It especially came up when the topic of trading Jung Hoo Lee appeared in conversation, the implication being that the attendance totals are being bolstered by tourists there to see the Grandson of the Wind. But it seems like hanging an attendance figure on a platoon outfielder who can only flirt with being league average is probably not the way to go in the future.

The franchise’s valuation

The San Diego Padres were sold for $3.9 billion and the Los Angeles Angeles sold for $4 billion, but both of those transactions occurred at least a quarter after the Giants had announced an influx of capital thanks to two new investors: private equity firm Thrive and St. Louis Business leader Richard Chaifetz. There’s no official valuation of the Giants floating around out there. Forbes does an estimate each season and had the Giants at $4.05 billion for 2026, but the investors will have had their own figure when buying in. Also, a valuation doesn’t necessarily equal a sale price.

This isn’t to suggest that the Giants are on the verge of being sold, but as team valuations to continue to skyrocket and leadership’s land holdings expand it’s probably worth a thought exercise about a potential sale at some point. But from a story of 2026 standpoint, it’s a simple fact that this money helped the Giants cover a slightly expanded payroll and the other financial commitments the team had made (paying Bob Melvin’s contract and Tony Vitello’s buyout among the line items). The Giants have a large ownership group now.

I didn’t go with any of these for a single story mainly because of the strong injury component of the season — yes, I did consider the injuries as a single story, but I didn’t want to help build a narrative that they were a meaningful part of the season’s overall failure (at the major league level). Plus, I feel like these were all more like the first act of bigger stories that will be expanded upon in 2027 (whenever that season gets underway).

But, what do you think? Were any of these a bigger deal than one (or all) of the five offered over the course of the week? What might you have included in the 5 or on this quasi-Honorable Mention list?