COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — The mass confusion was supposed to be gone by now.
The decisions to sell, buy or stand pat should have been finalized with everyone having a clear direction.
And yet, with just six shopping days left before the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline, we have less clarity now than at the All-Star break.
The Miami Marlins produced their greatest June (20-6) in franchise history, lost a franchise-record 12 games in a row, staged a dramatic comeback against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and are smack-dab in the NL wild-card race.
The Boston Red Sox, who had the American League’s worst record (32-46) a month ago, are cruising now at 55-50, and could be the AL favorites to reach the World Series.
The Seattle Mariners, who looked they were on the verge of taking off and leaving everyone in the dust in the AL West, suddenly are watching reruns of a living nightmare in what could become the most exasperating season in franchise history.
And there are the Detroit Tigers, who have been putting everyone on hold for weeks, but now may be forced to pick up the phone and face reality.
There are still 24 teams who are either sitting in first place or within five games of a wild-card berth.
Even the teams that have full intentions to sell, like the Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays, realize they’re only a five-game winning streak away from believing once again.
This is what happens when there are seven National League teams who are no better than three games above .500, or no worse than six games below .500, and all in the race.
The are six teams in the American League who have losing records but are within five games of a playoff berth.
The Chicago White Sox have a losing record (10-11) this month, but have not lost any ground in the standings, and still lead the AL Central by two games.
Please, make it make sense.
While teams are telling one another they still have no idea what they’ll do, and promise to get back to them this weekend, here are the top nine questions entering the final days of the trade deadline:
1. Will the Detroit Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?
The Tigers really don’t want to trade him, knowing the anger and frustration it will create among their players and fanbase, but the decision really is becoming clear. The Tigers, who just dropped three games in a row to sub-.500 teams, and are now seven games below .500 themselves, have no choice but to trade Skubal.
They will try to sell the trade as building for the future, while still not giving up the present. After all, they did it a couple years ago when they dumped starter Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and received shortstop prospect Trey Sweeney and catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo. The Tigers still made the postseason, and the Dodgers won the World Series.
Then again, it can backfire, too. Just ask the Milwaukee Brewers who traded All-Star closer Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres in 2022 for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz. It ripped the soul out of the Brewers clubhouse, and they never recovered, missing the postseason.
The decision: They trade him, and likely No. 2 starter Casey Mize, too, while trying to convince their fans it’s really the right thing to do.
2. Will the San Diego Padres trade All-Star closer Mason Miller?
The Padres are holding onto Miller one day, and trading him the next. They plan to trade starter Michael King one day and keep Miller, only to flip-flop the next. No one has any idea what A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations, will do.
The Padres, who bought Juan Soto one trade deadline, and dumped him 1½ years later, are in the same predicament. They’d love to keep Miller, who’s under control through 2029, but his value is closing out games for a championship contender. This is why the Athletics traded him originally, knowing that he’d be rotting in the bullpen if there were no leads to hold down. Now, the Padres have to face reality and ask themselves if they’re a legitimate playoff team.
The decision: They decide to keep Miller for now, but then trade him during the winter, creating a fierce bidding war. They instead trade setup man, Adrian Morejon, who’s a free agent after the season.
3. Will the Milwaukee Brewers go for it and land biggest fish, Tarik Skubal?
The ownership and front office would love to let their fans and clubhouse know that they’re all in. They certainly have the prospects, and the financial flexibility to get it done. They also realize that unless they get another prized starter to go along with stud Jacob Misiorowski, they have no real chance to knock off the Dodgers and get to their first World Series since 1982. It will be the same ol’ story, get into the playoffs, and bow our early. So will they finally step out of their comfort zone?
The decision: Nope. They simply don’t believe that Skubal will be the magic elixir for all of their needs. They still need a power bat. They could use another late-inning reliever. They could use someone to step up and be that solid No. 3 starter. Simply, there’s too much risk for the Brewers to take on Skubal when they know they’re going to be in the postseason, anyway.
4. Will teams act differently at the deadline with the uncertainty of 2027?
General managers will tell you that they’re not even thinking about the upcoming lockout, saying it’s completely out of their control. They want to win now, and will worry about the future later. But their bosses may have more of a desire to remain cautious than trade prospects. If there’s a salary cap one day, the young prospects making minimum salary will be more valuable than ever.
The decision: Teams may actually be more aggressive because owners are now telling them to prepare for the possibility of a prolonged work stoppage, even canceling all of next season. If there’s not going to a season, why not go for the gusto, knowing you can be the defending champions for two years without playing a game next season?
5. Will the Chicago White Sox go all-in?
Can the White Sox lose a record 121 games two years ago, and 102 last season, and really pull this off and be in the postseason?
Sure, the White Sox can do it. The division completely stinks. If no one wants to take it, why not the White Sox? But they desperately need a veteran starter or two to stick around until October.
Decision: They’d love to be in the playoffs, but no, they are not going to be aggressive. They are not going to trade away top prospects and find themselves in the same situation they were in when they had to start another rebuild in 2022.
If a pitcher with team control like Reid Detmers falls into their laps, sure. If teams are wary about Robbie Ray’s $25 million contract, they’ll put their chips in. But they are not going to mortgage the future. They’re quite content to ride it out, believing this team will be built for sustained success.
6. Will the Mets trade Francisco Lindor?
He makes a ton of money with half of his 10-year, $341 million contract still remaining.
He is having a lousy season, just like the rest of his New York Mets teammates.
When David Stearns, president of baseball operations, reeled off his untouchable players at the trade deadline, he did not include Lindor.
Certainly, he showed off his talent to the rest of the world Monday night with his two homers, triple and six RBIs.
So why not trade him now, clearing payroll and building for the future?
The decision: The Mets will ultimately trade him, believing it’s best for the organization, but just not now. Teams need to get creative with their finances, and besides, if there is a lengthy lockout, teams may be hesitant to take on his massive contract.
7. Will the Yankees be able to fill all of their needs at the deadline?
The New York Yankees have the second-best record in the American League, 60-46, and perhaps the fiercest rotation in the game, but they have holes everywhere.
They have $120 million worth of stars currently sidelined with outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger on the injured list.
They have the worst-producing catcher in baseball with Austin Wells slashing .165/.267/.277.
They don’t have any reliable late-inning relievers.
And, truthfully, they have no idea when or if Judge is even coming back.
The answer: Yankees don’t have enough prospects to fill all of their needs, but they will get a catcher and perhaps another outfielder, too. Yet, they won’t go too crazy, knowing that if Judge isn’t able to make it back in time, the season will be a lost cause, anyway.
8. Will the Dodgers really make a bold move for Tarik Skubal?
The Dodgers are making their big second-half moves in the next few days when they activate two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, All-Star closer Edwin Díaz and playoff hero Kiké Hernández.
So, they really don’t have to have Skubal.
They’ll still win 100 games and run away with the division and be well-rested for October.
The decision: The Dodgers are so loaded with prized minor-league outfielders they could hand them out for Halloween, and still be fine.
Yes, they may not need Skubal, they’d love just to keep him away from everyone else.
And once they have him, well, they might as well keep him.
9. Will Phillies boss Dave Dombrowski work his magic and come away with help?
The Phillies have been desperately looking for a right-handed bat. They badly need a veteran setup man. And they certainly could use another starter, going 5-21 in games not started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola.
Certainly, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski never has been shy trading away prospects to acquire stars. He did that with Miguel Cabrera when he was with the Tigers. He did that with Chris Sale when he was with the Boston Red Sox. And with age catching up to his stars, will he want to keep his prospects or go for the jugular?
The decision: Dombrowski will go all in and do what it takes no matter how many top prospects are needed. He badly wants another chance to return to the World Series.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Make it make sense: 9 questions to unlock MLB trade deadline uncertainty
COVERS INTEL:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
Detroit Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees
