
Tarik Skubal was the prize of the trade deadline, and will be a highly sought-after belle of the ball during free agency. He won American League Cy Young Awards in both 2024 and 2025 with the Detroit Tigers, then won a record $30 million decision in salary arbitration last winter.
After a strong season for both the Tigers and Dodgers, Skubal’s next salary will almost certainly exceed that $30 million. But what kind of contract might the left-hander receive this offseason?
Let’s look at some recent starting pitcher contracts at the top end of the market by average annual value (Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a great list of such things, if you’re interested).
| Pitcher | Team | Age | Years | Avg. salary |
| Max Scherzer | Mets | 37 | 2022-24 | $43.3 million |
| Justin Verlander | Mets | 40 | 2023-24 | $43.3 million |
| Zach Wheeler | Phillies | 35 | 2025-27 | $42 million |
| Framber Valdez | Tigers | 32 | 2026-28 | $38.3 million |
Max Scherzer during the last lockout was one of eight executive-board members of the MLB Players Association, and signed his three-year, $130 million with the New York Mets on November 30, 2021, the day before the collective bargaining agreement expired. He took an active public role during the lockout.
Skubal now is one of eight executive-board members of the MLBPA as the alternate pension committee representative, and like Scherzer has Scott Boras as his agent.
The first three players on this list were at the team at least five years older than Skubal, who turns 30 on November 22. Framber Valdez last winter was two years older than Skubal is now but also didn’t have Skubal’s track record or hardware, plus Skubal has never had to fight off allegations that he hit his catcher with a pitch on purpose.
But Skubal is likely looking for a contract longer than three years, so let’s look at a few more recent longer deals on the high end of the market.
| Pitcher | Team | Age | Years | Avg. salary |
| Jacob deGrom | Rangers | 35 | 2023-27 | $37 million |
| Blake Snell | Dodgers | 32 | 2025-29 | $36.4 million |
| Gerrit Cole | Yankees | 29 | 2020-28 | $36 million |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 31 | 2020-26 | $35 million |
| Corbin Burnes | Diamondbacks | 30 | 2025-30 | $35 million |
Two Cy Young Awards were already on the mantel for Jacob deGrom by the time he was a free agent, but injuries cut into his final two years with the Mets before reaching free agency. Skubal missed six weeks this past season after arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, and has pitched six full seasons in the majors. Here are the final six years before free agency for Skubal and deGrom
- deGrom: 133 games, 846 2/3 IP, 2.40 ERA, 2.58 xERA, 1,115 K, 29.4 bWAR, 29.9 fWAR
- Skubal: 155 games, 893 1/3 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 1,038 K, 22.8 bWAR, 24.8 fWAR
It looks like deGrom has the edge in production, though was hurt by making only 26 starts over his final two years with the Mets. Plus, deGrom was five years older than Skubal is now, so it would be reasonable for him to seek a contract larger than the five years, $185 million deGrom got four offseasons ago.
The real question might be how much will Skubal’s 2026 surgery impact his free agency. He missed six weeks but was also quite productive in his 26 starts. He also had flexor tendon surgery that limited him to 36 total starts between 2022-23 with Detroit.
Blake Snell has an extensive injury history, and like deGrom and Skubal, also has two Cy Young Awards to his credit. When he first free agency, after the 2023 season he was coming directly off the second of his Cy Young seasons. Snell then was one year older than Skubal is now, so let’s look at their previous six seasons before free agency, which also includes both Snell Cy Young years (2018, 2023):
- Snell: 148 games, 774 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 1,006 K, 19.6 bWAR, 17.9 fWAR
- Skubal: 155 games, 893 1/3 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 1,038 K, 22.8 bWAR, 24.8 fWAR
Snell still had almost no market to speak of two offseasons ago, and he settled for a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants and opted out after one season in San Francisco.
It’s Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers that is more of a thing for Skubal to shoot for than anything, but a market will have to develop. And the pending lockout adds a layer of uncertainty that at the very least might make Skubal have to wait a while before he finds his next deal.
Today’s question is how many years and guaranteed dollars do you think Tarik Skubal will sign for as a free agent this offseason?












