Mendoza formally declared for the NFL draft Friday and could be headed to the Raiders with the No. 1 pick in April. Mendoza led Indiana to a 16-0 season and its first national championship with a 27-21 victory against Miami on Monday night.
The junior completed 72% of his passes this season for 3,535 yards, with 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for seven scores. He played some of his best football in the College Football Playoff, with eight TD passes and no picks. He ran for a score against the Hurricanes, turning a fourth-and-4 play into a 12-yard scamper that proved to be a pivotal moment in the game. It extended Indiana’s lead to 24-14 in the fourth quarter.
Mendoza’s decision to turn pro was widely considered a mere formality. The Hoosiers seemingly tipped his NFL intentions when they signed TCU quarterback Josh Hoover during the open transfer portal window.
The basic storylines for this game are the Nuggets continued strong play despite a plethora of injuries to key players including perennial MVP Nikola Jokic and the Bucks’ struggles to keep a playoff spot within sight while their perennial MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, continues executing his exit strategy.
Denver has won five straight on the road. They knocked off the Wizards in Washington last night, 107-97. Peyton Watson led the way with a career-high 35 points and Jamal Murray added 24 to pace the attack. Milwaukee has lost four of their last five overall including Wednesday night at home to OKC. Giannis had 19 in the loss.
These teams met almost two weeks ago on January 11 in Denver with the Nuggets prevailing, 108-104. Giannis had 31 points to lead all scorers but Tim Hardaway Jr.’s 25 off the bench for Denver paced a balanced attack for the Nuggets in the win.
Lets take a closer look at the matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content.
Game Details and How to Watch Live: Nuggets at Bucks
Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
Time: 9:30PM EST
Site: Fiserv Forum
City: Milwaukee, WI
Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Game Odds: Nuggets at Bucks
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
This game opened Bucks -4.5 with the Total set at 222.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Nuggets at Bucks
Denver Nuggets
PG Jamal Murray
SG Jalen Pickett
SF Spencer Jones
PF Peyton Watson
C Aaron Gordon
Milwaukee Bucks
PG Ryan Rollins
SG AJ Green
SF Kyle Kuzma
PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
C Myles Turner
Injury Report: Nuggets at Bucks
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game
Christian Braun (ankle) is OUT for tonight’s game
Cam Johnson (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game
Tamar Bates (foot) is OUT for tonight’s game
Milwaukee Bucks
Myles Turner (ankle) is probable for tonight’s game
Taurean Prince (neck) is OUT for tonight’s game
Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique) is OUT for tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Nuggets at Bucks
The Bucks are 9-11 at home this season
The Nuggets lead the NBA with a road record of 18-7 this season
The Bucks are 19-24 ATS this season
The Nuggets are 26-19 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 27 of the Nuggets’ 45 games this season (27-18)
The OVER has cashed in 17 of the Bucks’ 43 games this season (17-26)
Jamal Murray has scored 20 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games and at least 24 in 11 of the 15
Giannis is shooting 66.9% from the field and averaging 26.6PPG in January
Giannis is averaging 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists this season
Rotoworld Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Nuggets at Bucks’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Nuggets +6.5
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total of 217.5
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
The Denver Nuggets have had to get creative with their rotations thanks to all the injuries they’ve dealt with.
For instance, 26-year-old guard Jalen Pickett has now made eight starts in a row. And he’s made the most of it, averaging 8.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.
Let’s focus on his work on the boards because the Milwaukee Bucks rank next-to-last in rebounding rate despite having one of the best rebounders in the NBA.
Pickett has hauled down five or more boards in seven of those eight starts, and we’re still getting plus money on this bet.
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
Pacers vs Thunder best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points (-112)
The absence of Tyrese Haliburton has hurt the struggling Indiana Pacers, but Pascal Siakam has stepped into a top role and absolutely flourished.
The veteran is averaging a career-best 23.8 PPG, and he deserves to earn an All-Star nod in the Eastern Conference.
Siakam is having a solid January, averaging 25 points per night. He’s also cashed the Over in four consecutive appearances, most recently dropping 32 points in a loss to the Celtics on Wednesday evening.
The Cameroonian is playing even better on the road, averaging 25.2 PPG compared to 22.8 PPG at home. He also erupted against the Oklahoma City Thunder earlier in the campaign, scoring 32 points.
Siakam will do his thing here.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.8 PPG this season, but he’s only scoring 16.5 PPG in January, and he’s been struggling lately. The big man has cashed the Under in points in five of his last six outings.
The last time Holmgren faced the Pacers, he played 39 minutes but scored only 15 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another MVP campaign, averaging 32 PPG. He’s also shooting the three well, drainnig 39% of his attempts.
The guard was 2-for-7 from downtown earlier this season against the Pacers.
Pacers vs Thunder SGP
Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points
Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Dort delivers
Lu Dort has cashed the Over in points in back-to-back games, scoring 13 and 18 points.
Pacers vs Thunder SGP
Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points
Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
Lu Dort Over 9.5 points
Pacers vs Thunder odds
Spread: Pacers +750 | Thunder -1200
Moneyline: Pacers +16 | Thunder -16
Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Pacers vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Thunder have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
Location
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date
Friday, January 23, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Former Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Kevin Johnson died from “blunt head trauma and stab wounds” at a homeless encampment, according to the medical examiner.
The Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Johnson, 55, was pronounced dead Wednesday morning after being found unconscious. His death was ruled a homicide and is being investigated.
A fourth-round draft pick by New England in 1993, Johnson spent time with the Patriots, Minnesota and Oakland before landing with the Eagles. He had 43 tackles, including seven sacks, and returned a fumble for a touchdown in two years with Philadelphia. He played 15 games for the Raiders in 1997.
Johnson later played in the Arena Football League for Orlando and Los Angeles. The L.A. native played collegiately at Texas Southern.
Investigators believe Johnson had been living at the encampment at the time of his death. Friends said Johnson had health issues later in life that contributed to his situation.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Patrick Reed moved into the lead at the Dubai Desert Classic on Friday and has a familiar foe trying to chase him down over the weekend.
Rory McIlroy sounds up for the fight, too.
“I came from 10 behind a couple years ago to win,” the No. 2-ranked McIlroy said defiantly. “I think I’m seven back at the minute.”
McIlroy sure will need to improve to reel in Reed, the former Masters champion who kept his card clean and shot 6-under 66 to take a one-stroke lead after the second round at Emirates Golf Club.
Reed, a LIV Golf member who plays frequently on the European tour, made four birdies and a 40-footer for eagle at the par-5 13th. The American was on 9-under 135 for the week.
McIlroy birdied the par-5 18th to shoot 69 and repair some of the damage from a 72 in the first round.
Few know the course better than McIlroy, the record four-time champion — including in 2024 when he was 11 shots back heading onto the 18th hole on the Friday yet still won, and in 2023 when he outlasted Reed in a memorable final-round duel that got personal.
Throw in their loud singles match at the Ryder Cup in 2016, won by Reed, and they certainly have some history.
“If I go out there tomorrow, maybe in slightly better conditions in the morning, and post a low one, then I’ll be right in the mix come Sunday,” said McIlroy, who was tied for 20th.
Reed, who has placed second and 10th in his two other appearances at the Dubai Desert Classic, said he was happy with his game, having started with a round of 69 in much tougher conditions.
“The good thing is today I felt like (I'm) hitting the ball exactly where I need to and I feel like I’m hitting some solid putts,” Reed said.
Andy Sullivan finished birdie-eagle to shoot 65 — the lowest round of the day — and was alone in second place, one stroke ahead of Italian pair Andrea Pavan (68) and first-round leader Francesco Molinari (72).
Johnson misses cut
Dustin Johnson, the longtime former No. 1, was the biggest name to miss the cut after a second straight 74.
The American is becoming an afterthought in golf after moving to the breakaway LIV circuit in 2022, the same year as Reed, and has slid to No. 639 in the world ranking.
Fleetwood languishing
No. 3-ranked Tommy Fleetwood is another headliner in Dubai, where he now lives, but only just made the cut after struggling to a 72 to be 10 shots off the lead.
Better placed was Tyrrell Hatton, the defending champion who shot 69 and was in sixth place, four strokes off the lead.
Hatton, another LIV golfer, chipped in for eagle at the short par-4 No. 17 for his highlight of the day.
After blowing a fourth quarter lead and losing in OT in Philadelphia last night, Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets (26-16) are in the Motor City tonight to face Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons (32-10).
Durant scored 36 and Amen Thompson added 17 in the loss for the Rockets. Joel Embiid had a night for Philly scoring 32, pulling down 15 boards and handing out 10 assists.
The task is no easier tonight for the Rockets. It’s the second half of a back-to-back and the opponent are the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. They lead the conference in rebounding (46.3 per game). Cunningham, who is averaging 25.7 points and 9.8 assists, is the unquestioned leader of the Pistons but his availability is a question mark tonight (illness). Detroit owns a sparkling 17-4 record at home this season.
The Rockets sit fourth in the Western Conference. Following last night’s loss in Philly, Houston has now lost five in a row. Houston is the top rebounding team in the Western Conference (49.0/gm) led by Alperen Sengun (9.2reb/gm).
The Pistons won the first meeting of the season between these teams, 115-111 on October 24. Cunningham had 21 points and 9 assists to pace Detroit. Durant had 37 for Houston in the loss.
Lets take a closer look at the matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including thelatest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content.
Game Details and How to Watch Live: Rockets at Pistons
Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
Time: 7PM EST
Site: Little Caesars Arena
City: Detroit, MI
Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Game Odds: Rockets at Pistons
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Houston Rockets (+140), Detroit Pistons (-166)
Spread: Pistons -3.5
Total: 216.5 points
This game opened Pistons -3.5 with the Total set at 217.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Rockets at Pistons
Houston Rockets
PG Amen Thompson
SG Josh Okogie
SF Kevin Durant
PF Jabari Smith
C Alperen Sengun
Detroit Pistons
PG Cade Cunningham
SG Duncan Robinson
SF Ausar Thompson
PF Tobias Harris
C Jalen Duren
Injury Report: Rockets at Pistons
Houston Rockets
Aaron Holiday (back) is OUT for tonight’s game
Steven Adams (ankle) is OUT for tonight’s game
Fred VanVleet (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game
Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham (illness) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
Duncan Robinson (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
Ronald Holland (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
Caris LeVert (illness) is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Rockets at Pistons
The Pistons are 17-4 at home this season
The Rockets are 11-13 on the road this season
The Pistons are 22-20 ATS this season
The Rockets are 20-22 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 17 of the Pistons’ 42 games this season (17-24-1)
The OVER has cashed in 19 of the Rockets’ 42 games this season (19-21-1)
Reed Shepherd has hit at least three, 3-pointers in each of the Rockets’ last 4 games (15-30)
Tobias Harris has not taken a single free throw in the Pistons’ last 3 games
Rotoworld Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Rockets and Pistons’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pistons on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pistons -3.5
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 216.5
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
In a classic dog days of the NBA season kind of game, the Wizards lost to the Denver Nuggets, 107-97. It was Washington’s eighth straight loss, and it was a slog to watch.
Both teams seemed tired and low energy. The Nuggets had something of an excuse — they played Tuesday in Los Angeles and flew across the country. Washington’s last game was at home on Monday afternoon. Maybe they had some hard practices?
Wizards guard Tre Johnson played a solid game in the team’s loss to the Denver Nuggets.
Despite both teams missing loads of shots, they combined for 17 total transition points — nine for the Wizards, and eight for the the Nuggets. The Nuggets walked the ball up the floor on many possessions. They exhibited relatively disciplined shot selection and won just enough possessions to get the win.
The Wizards, who usually push the ball up the floor quickly after opponent makes or misses, were content to walk it up themselves. Unlike the Nuggets, they were far more likely to take a quick shot. If there was a theme in this game, it was Washington working hard individually to get a difficult shot, and the Nuggets working as a team to get better ones.
This was certainly not a rule. Jamal Murray had a “Murray Flurry” (as dubbed by the Nuggets broadcast) in the third quarter that was heavy on isos. Peyton Watson had a few terrific one-on-one play. In general, though, the Nuggets would run actions and move ball and players until they got an advantage, and then attack.
Watson played great for the Nuggets — a career-high 35 points along with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks. He took a hard fall when he got clotheslined trying to dunk on Khris Middleton after earlier turning his ankle landing after scoring a highlight-reel bucked on Alex Sarr. His emergence as a quality offensive option is a great development for Denver — made possible by Nikola Jokic’s knee injury.
Thoughts & Observations
While transition defense wasn’t much of an issue last night (the Nuggets were apparently too tired to run), one play early in the game exemplified the team’s struggles defending in transition. Denver came up with a steal and Murray started up the floor. Tre Johnson was the only defender back — two Nuggets players were ahead of the ball. Johnson had to choose — match up with his man on the wing or pick up Aaron Gordon in the center of the floor. Correct prioritization would have sent him to Gordon. Johnson went to the wing. That left Gordon alone under the rim for an easy dunk.
I could be wrong on this one, but…there was an offensive fast break I think the Wizards got wrong. They had a three-on-two. Kyshawn George had the ball and was dribbling to the offensive end right-of-center of the court. To his left was Sarr in the middle and Will Riley on the wing. To me, the right play would have been for George to go to the middle and for Sarr to cross over to get on his right — ball in the middle flanked by offensive players. Another option could have been for George to move further right to open more of a lane for Sarr to come down the middle of the lane and force a Denver defender to guard two guys. Instead, George dribbled straight up the floor, Sarr and Riley ran their lanes, and Denver defenders never had to make a real decision. The tight spacing gave George only two real options — drive into two defenders or kick it out to Riley on the wing. The tight spacing meant there was a relatively short closeout. Riley missed the three-point attempt, and the Wizards didn’t score on a three-on-two break.
George was this close to having an impressive game, despite shooting just 6-17 from the floor. He had 12 rebounds, 7 assists, and a steal. The three turnovers were acceptable given the assists and his overall offensive load. He’s gotta stop fouling so much — especially the pointless tantrumy ones.
The spate of “injuries” meant that Anthony Gill got rotation minutes, and he wasn’t bad.
One good thing: unlike their last matchup with the Nuggets, I didn’t see the Wizards helping off Murray. He had to work harder to generate offense.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORS
NUGGETS
WIZARDS
LGAVG
eFG%
50.0%
45.8%
54.4%
OREB%
28.2%
28.6%
26.1%
TOV%
11.8%
15.1%
12.8%
FTM/FGA
0.289
0.238
0.211
PACE
93
99.6
ORTG
115
104
115.7
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
Baseball America just announced their top 100 prospects in baseball heading into the 2026 season. Let’s take a look at which Brewers prospects made the cut:
4. SS Jesus Made
I’ve written about Made a lot over the last year (and this offseason), so there isn’t a lot to say about him that hasn’t already been said. BA considers him a 70-grade (!) prospect with average risk, but nothing he’s shown so far has indicated that he won’t be able to adjust as he continues to rise through the minor league system.
Made is pretty much the complete package at the plate, showing above-average speed, power, and contact throughout three different levels of minor league ball. He may not stick at shortstop long-term, but that’s mainly due to Cooper Pratt’s presence as opposed to any inherent defensive deficiency. He made some errors over the course of the year, but his defense improved significantly — he projects to be, at the very least, a slightly-above-average defender.
After a hot start with Low-A Carolina in 2025, Made earned a mid-season promotion and hit even better (.915 OPS) before being promoted again — just in time for the Double-A playoffs. If he keeps improving (he should), he’ll be knocking on the door of the Brewers’ clubhouse in no time. He’s the best prospect Milwaukee has had since Jackson Chourio and should be very fun to watch in a Brewers uniform someday.
47. SS/2B Luis Peña
Peña has just as high of an offensive ceiling as Made despite questions surrounding his plate discipline and long-term defensive abilities. He’s an “athletic, aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well with excellent hand-eye coordination.” He also doesn’t strike out all that much (8.2% in 2025) despite often swinging at pitches that maybe he shouldn’t. Peña frequently posts high-level exit velocities (up to 106 mph), although his swing is geared toward top-spin line drives — meaning that his home run numbers (1 HR in 2025) are somewhat lacking despite having tons of raw power.
Peña’s ranking, per BA, is honestly quite a bit lower than I thought it would be. Peña got promoted to High-A alongside Made, but while Made improved on his Low-A stats, Peña faltered a bit (.844 OPS with Carolina, .517 over 101 at-bats with Wisconsin). He’ll need to show improvement on his numbers to justify ranking him this high, but if he starts the season off hot, he’ll probably rise significantly up BA’s rankings.
50. SS Cooper Pratt
Out of the three shortstops at the top of the Brewers’ farm system, Pratt is the best defensive prospect. I’ve said it before, but I genuinely think he’d be an above-average shortstop at the major league level in 2026. I absolutely love his defensive game. He gets to balls a lot of other shortstops don’t get to and doesn’t make many mistakes.
The bat is still a work in progress, although Pratt shows traits that hint at his bat developing further. Per BA, swing is simple, balanced and stays short to the ball for a 6-foot-3 hitter. Pratt will expand the strike zone a touch more often than he should, particularly against sliders down and away, but he has a good sense of timing with the hand-eye coordination that leads to a low swing-and-miss rate.“ For what it’s worth, scouts don’t think he’ll develop much power due to his low top-end exit velocities and lack of bat speed. Still, if he develops as hoped, a defensive wizard shortstop who can hit for average is a highly valuable player.
71. SS/2B/OF Jett Williams
Williams and his former teammate in the Mets organization, Brandon Sproat, deserve their own article once I have the time to watch some film. For now:
There was a reason many Mets fans are disappointed that Williams, the No. 14 overall pick back in 2022, was part of the return for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. He could be very good, very soon. His best traits at the plate are his on base ability and swing decisions, both of which sound very Brewers. Unlike most recent Brewers acquisitions, he comes with a ton of accolades. Williams was BA’s No. 1 overall Mets prospect coming into last season. Also according to BA, Williams was the best baserunner and had the strongest infield arm in the Mets organization. After the 2025 season, Williams was named the Eastern League’s top Major League prospect.
Williams also boasts significant power (17 home runs in 130 combined games last year) and should be able to hit for power at the next level, despite his diminutive stature (5’6”). Williams’ final standout trait is his versatility — while he’s mostly played shortstop as a member of the Mets organization, he’s notched at least 33 career starts at both second base and center field.
Williams had an .868 OPS in 96 games for the Mets’ Double-A affiliate last year. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, his OPS dropped a little bit (.718 OPS in 36 games), but I’d bet on his numbers bouncing back up somewhere closer to where they were in Double-A once he spends significant time at that level. It doesn’t hurt that the Brewers front office clearly thinks he could be someone (remember Caleb Durbin…).
81. RHP Brandon Sproat
Sproat, the other player that the Brewers got in return for Peralta and Myers, is going to fit in great with the Brewers’ “pitching lab.” Fun fact about the 25-year-old righty — the Mets actually drafted him twice, selecting him in the third round in 2022 and second round in 2023. He more than lived up to that draft capital through Double-A, but eventually hit a bit of a wall in Triple-A. Through his first 22 starts in Triple-A, Sproat posted an abysmal 6.45 ERA. His last 11 starts, however? A 2.44 ERA and 30% (!!) strikeout rate. He was called up in September and made four starts with the Mets before the end of the season, with varying results.
While he’s not quite as highly ranked of a prospect as Williams, he’s a legitimate talent. Sproat only posted a 4.24 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) at Triple-A Syracuse last season, but the underlying peripherals — 113 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched, .218 opponent batting average — point to a pitcher who could find success in the big leagues. Per BA, his standout traits are his control (“good enough to start” in the majors) and his breaking balls, which “stand out.” Sproat threw his mid-80s sweeper and high-70s curveball about a third of the time in his MLB debut and leaned on them as putaway pitches. He also throws a harder slider. Sproat’s sinker sits 94-96 mph, but despite that velocity, it operates as a groundball or set-up pitch rather than a whiff pitch.
96. RHP Logan Henderson
Most of you saw Henderson in his stint with the Brewers last year, a stint that was cut short due to right elbow inflammation. Despite the injury, the promise that he showed in 25 1/3 IP (1.78 ERA) with Milwaukee was enough to land him on BA’s Top 100. Henderson isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he’s a smart pitcher who gets good movement on his pitches. His standout pitch is his 80-ish mph “Nintendo pitch” changeup, which played off his fastball effectively both in Triple-A and in the majors. It’s fair to wonder whether he’ll have the same level of success once major league teams get a full year of film on him, and he certainly (almost certainly?) won’t post an ERA under 2.00 next year.
Still, Milwaukee trading Peralta and Myers shows that they have confidence in their pitching depth heading into 2026, and Henderson looks to be a significant part of the Brewers’ rotation plans for 2026. He won’t be on this list next year.
The San Antonio Spurs salvaged the rest of their brief road trip with a close call in Utah against the young Jazz. It was one of those rare occasions in which records could be misleading because the Jazz (15-30) have more talent than their record indicates, put up a fight at home and have made lots of internal growth since October. It almost felt like watching a grandmaster at the chessboard sweat it out against a younger prospect who will be a bigger factor in the next few years.
Keyonte George, who should probably be the Most Improved player, and Ace Bailey are the real deal and have lots to do with that. These games will continue to be special, too, since Bailey and Dylan Harper are former teammates at Rutgers who will bring the intensity against each other. Team CEO Danny Ainge should stop holding Lauri Markkanen hostage and trade him for youngsters and assets to bolster the Jazz, since he is a gateway player.
There was good reason to be impressed by the Spurs’ 3-point shooting as well. It was only the 10th time in their regular-season history that three Spurs made at least four in the same game, with De’Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie and Victor Wembanyama combining to hit 15-25.
This is also a good time to point out that Luke Kornet is as good as a backup big man gets, and the team is vulnerable in his absences when Wembanyama sits. He takes up a lot of space, which helps disrupt shot attempts and grab rebounds. On these nights, Wembanyama has had to be close to perfect, and in this case, he was.
Takeaways
It’s incredible how the Jazz and many other teams lose track of Champagnie, especially when he’s wearing the loudest sneakers in the building. Keep in mind that only four players had made more 3-pointers in January heading into the matchup. Nonetheless, it was his seventh time this year making at least five treys in a game. This type of long-range production makes him the perfect “in case of emergency, break glass” type of player. He moves well without the ball and roams the area opposing defenses help off too easily. Consider how 76.5 percent of his 3-point attempts are open to wide-open, per the NBA’s tracking data.
Carter Bryant has sky-high potential as one of the top defenders in the NBA. He’s got a rare combination of hustle and athleticism that will help him guard up. Additionally, it doesn’t matter that he’s only averaging 2.5 points on 8.2 minutes per game. He’s only age 20, and I’m always glued to my seat when he checks in. Rookies, even late lottery picks, deserve a grace period while they figure out offense. He’s starting to look more comfortable on that end, taking what the offense gives him instead of seeking out highlight-real dunks (that don’t always go down).
Considering the team’s recent late-game struggles, closing out the Jazz in the fourth quarter with fireworks from and Wembanyama was big time. It was a 180° turn from the fourth quarter they blew in Houston on Tuesday, in which they combined for 18 percent shooting. It’s been a slight speed bump, but it’s important that the team can look to the stars for direction. When they do things like this, it gives them extra credibility in the locker room when they need to call everyone to attention.
If we are talking about the spirit of the Sixth Man of the Year award, Keldon Johnson should be the leading man. It’s starting to feel like a surprise when he misses because he’s averaging a 62. 4 effective field goal percentage. He led the bench in this one with 21 points, 5 assists, a steal and a block.
Undoubtedly, one of the hardest things for a team to do is run like greyhounds while maintaining a top-shelf defense. The Spurs guarded well and set a new season high of 32 fastbreak points on Thursday. They are a middle-of-the-pack team in pace (100.67) yet effective when flooring it, partly because of Wembanyama‘s rebounding and outlet passing.
Props to Kevin Love, who moves like an old buffalo in his advanced age but maintains a high level of vigor. It’s always great to have pedigree like that in a locker room, which reminds one of how Chris Paul was a good veteran who had a positive effect on the Spurs last year.
Last time, we took a look at starting pitcher projections for ERA. We will do the same here for relief pitchers. Obviously, there is a ton to get into here and before we dive in we need to talk about some issues that come up with all pitchers. Certainly, hitting and pitching is partially reliant on luck. Over the last decade, there have been exciting advancements in data primarily from a company called Statcast. They essentially can pinpoint exit velocities on batted balls and therefore can better predict trends in performance.
Chuck Palahniuk (the author of “Fight Club”) wrote one of my favorite lines in literature: “on a long enough timeline, the survival rate drops to zero.” Generally speaking the more data we receive the more reliable that data is going to be. We can predict outcomes and the underlying data (like Statcast) will match the manifesting data. In other words, pitchers that miss bats and induce weak contact will perform better than pitchers that don’t.
However, when you condense a 200 inning season into a 50 inning season, there are fewer opportunities for the data to normalize itself. This is why we often see wide variations from one season to the next for relief pitchers. They themselves are likely not radically different. They are getting different results because when sample sizes are smaller, there is more variance with luck.
This has two immediate implications for us today. First, the idea of giving a relief pitcher a multiyear contract is a risky proposition because of this variance. That’s why we don’t see them very often and it is much rarer for teams to get consistent bang for their buck. Secondly, the ERA predictions will seem higher for some players than what is likely to happen. When we go with batted ball statistics we tend to see a narrowing in projections across different pitchers because we cannot predict good or bad luck. For starting pitchers, that usually is not as big an issue. For relievers we will see wider variation in these numbers when the season ends.
The Numbers
Steamer
ATC
The Bat
OOPSY
B-Ref
Aggregate
Josh Hader
3.29
3.25
3.39
3.00
3.41
3.27
Bryan Abreu
3.24
3.20
3.65
3.07
3.18
3.27
Bryan King
3.72
3.63
3.65
3.70
3.48
3.64
Bennett Sousa
3.60
3.66
3.96
3.43
3.78
3.69
Steven Okert
3.99
4.01
4.07
3.61
4.02
3.94
AJ Blubaugh
4.35
4.29
4.02
4.36
3.35
4.07
Miguel Ullola
4.18
4.15
3.72
4.45
——-
4.13
Jayden Murray
4.61
4.39
4.22
4.22
3.86
4.26
Enyel de Los Santos
4.27
4.42
4.82
4.26
4.36
4.43
J.P. France
4.38
4.45
4.82
4.91
4.34
4.58
Roddery Munoz
4.48
4.76
4.94
4.39
5.12
4.74
Just like with the starters, we have more relievers than spots. MLB rules dictate that you can only have 13 pitchers on your ML roster. If the Astros go with a six man rotation then that means only spots for seven relievers. Naturally, at least one of those starters would probably double as a long reliever. However, there are eleven names here and all of them have unique situations as it pertains to options and status. For instance, Munoz looks like the worst candidate, but he was a Rule V draft choice, so he would need to remain on the roster or be sent back.
You will also notice that four of the top five relievers are lefties (in bold and italics). That creates some interesting roster construction issues as the Astros will need to prioritize right handed middle relief if they are to make any changes to the staff. Most organizations have only two lefties in their pen, so the Astros appear to be dealing from a position of strength. It is certainly possible for one or more of them to be dealt in a theoretical deal to add to other parts of the roster.
Roster Flexibility
As we noted in the last piece, Nate Pearson was projected as a reliever, but the Astros have labeled him as a candidate for the rotation. Similarly, Miguel Ullola and AJ Blubaugh were starters in the minors, so they could easily serve in that capacity. We also should note that JP France was a prominent start on the 2023 club before arm injuries limited him. He could also return to the rotation in Sugar Land to provide more depth in case of injuries.
As much as we would like to see the very best 26 guys on the final roster, teams often have to make difficult decisions at the end of the rotation and bullpen. As previously mentioned, Munoz has to make the final roster or be sent back. If they feel he is reasonably close in quality to a player with options then those players with options will likely be optioned back to Sugar Land. Teams use err on the side of keeping as many of their guys as they possibly can.
Fans and analysts also often forget the fourth dimension: time. Just because someone starts in AAA doesn’t mean they will end up there. Sometimes players need a little seasoning before coming up or they need to wait for a logjam to clear itself. We saw that with the rotation last season as there were even a couple of rotation arms I left off of the final list. Odds are pretty good that every name above will see some time at the big league level.
Future Considerations
I mentioned the reluctance to sign players to multi-year contracts. That will be put to the test following the season when Bryan Abreu becomes a free agent. Abreu is the only relief pitcher in baseball with 100 or more strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. He has averaged nearly 100 a season for the last four years. Add in a fifth season this year and there will be a ton of pressure to sign him to a Rafael Montero like deal.
However, we should note what happened with Montero. Obviously, Abreu has a longer track record of success than Montero did, but the question remains. How long will he be able to hold up this level of performance? Some team will likely offer him closer money and it is hard to imagine paying two players closer money. So, a large part of the season will be trying to find that guy that can eventually become the 8th inning guy when Abreu walks in free agency.
I hesitate to suggest it because the names above are generally unproven, but the Astros might consider moving him before the deadline. If they do not foresee re-signing him then it makes sense to consider getting something long-term to help your team. However, leaving your team without an effective 8th inning reliever is not conducive to contending, so the Astros will need to either be out of the race or have someone that can immediately take his place.
Happy Friday everyone! We’re light on Tigers news, but there are still some big baseball stories to check in on. The Hall of Fame inductees were announced this week, and Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will be heading to Cooperstown. We also check in on Matt Vierling, plus a big move for the White Sox, and some major trades involving starting pitchers (but thankfully none of them named Tarik Skubal).
Carlos Beltrán is the first player drafted out of Puerto Rico to be elected to the Hall of Fame — the first five Puerto Rican Hall of Famers were all signed as free agents before Puerto Rico was incorporated into MLB's amateur draft in 1989.
When it comes to the starting rotation, the Orioles’ 40-man roster currently includes these names: Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin.
True to GM Mike Elias’s promises, the Orioles have been beefing up the offense with some new bats, notably the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso himself. They even added a new starter in Baz, acquired from Tampa for a hefty passel of prospects. But if 2026 is to go well, the Orioles need to complement their rebooted offense with a return-to-form from one or more of Povich, Kremer, and Young, plus a successful return-from-injury from Baz, Bradish, Wells, and certainly, Zach Eflin.
You may recall that the Orioles acquired Eflin from the Rays in July 2024. He joined a rotation helmed by Corbin Burnes, but suffering from the loss, due to injury, of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was really good down the stretch, exceeding expectations with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA, and 149 ERA+ over nine starts. The Orioles fell flat in the playoffs, but it was hardly his fault.
Eflin’s dominance, paired with the loss of free agent Burnes, made him the clear choice to be Baltimore’s Opening Day starter in 2025. He make that start, but then things quickly went sideways.
Eflin struggled to stay healthy last year (he wasn’t the only one). After just three starts, the righty went down with a right lat strain on April 9. He returned a month later but couldn’t find a groove. By mid-May, this team was in freefall, and a healthy Eflin could have provided a stabilizing presence for the roster. Instead, he hit the IL again on June 30 with lower back discomfort. It’d prove his last start of 2025, as he eventually underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy in August.
All in all, Eflin would do four stints on the IL while pitching to a 5.93 ERA in just fourteen starts.
As a pending free agent, Eflin could have been a trade chip in a season going nowhere. Instead, injuries prevented the Birds from flipping the starter for any value, and he elected free agency at season’s end. Though it wasn’t clear whether a reunion was in the cards, on December 29, the Orioles announced they were bringing him back on a one-year, $10 million deal, with a mutual option for 2027.
In a December Zoom call with the media, Eflin spoke candidly about his back issues. The injury, he explained, dated back roughly a decade, but last year it had progressively worsened, and it was the first time he couldn’t manage it at all. Surgeons discovered a bone spur pressing into a nerve—which explained the shooting pains Eflin had been dealing with. And unlike a Tommy John recovery, which can take fourteen-to-eighteen months, Eflin said he felt immediate relief after the operation, and now says he’s now in the best physical condition of his life. His first bullpen was scheduled for January 6 and his goal is to be ready for Opening Day.
So what to expect from this new-and-improved Zach Eflin?
The pessimist’s version: A guy who’s started more than 25 games only three of ten seasons in his career and who just posted a 5.93 ERA in an injury-shortened season.
The optimist’s version: The guy we saw in 2023 with Tampa Bay, when he went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, led the American League in wins, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. That season, his first in Tampa, Eflin set career highs in starts (31), innings (177.2), and strikeouts (186), while posting career-best marks in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Then he outdid himself the next year!
I think the bet here is reasonable, although a one-year deal certainly suggests caution by the front office. If the back pain really was a substantial part of why Eflin had an ERA near 6 for the 2025 season—his time missed strongly suggests it was—and it was corrected by a reasonably simple surgery, then there’s a plausible story where 2026 looks for him a lot more like 2023.
Plus the Orioles don’t need Eflin to be their ace this time around. Bradish, Rogers, and Baz should occupy the top spots. Guys like Eflin, Wells, and Kremer can fill out the rotation. In that role, the pressure is lower. A healthy Eflin as your No. 4 starter? Teams would kill for that.
This doesn’t mean the Orioles should stop looking for pitching. They shouldn’t. Free agents like Framber Valdez would obviously upgrade the rotation. But a healthy and effective Eflin represents a scenario where the Orioles might not need to make a splashy signing to have a good rotation. If he bounces back, if Bradish returns well from Tommy John, if Baz fulfills his potential—that’s a rotation that can compete in October. The margin for error is thin, but it exists.
Eflin himself seems to understand the stakes. “[I didn’t want] to be the guy they traded for and get hurt and not be the guy that they wanted,” he said. “That really weighed on me.” He wants to prove something. He’s motivated. And for the first time in years, he’s pain-free.
Championship windows don’t stay open indefinitely. “We want to win the World Series,” says Eflin. The Orioles know this; it’s why they signed Alonso, traded for Ward and Baz, brought in Ryan Helsley, and resigned their No. 4 starter. A bounce-back Zach Eflin might be one of the quieter pieces of this puzzle, but he could end up being one of the most important.
We've reached the midpoint of an NBA season that has been filled with surprises — Detroit and Boston lead the East, San Antonio is second in the West — and also far too many injuries to stars. It's also given us jaw-dropping moments, and not just the ones Victor Wembanyama seems to deliver us on a nightly basis.
The midpoint also means it's time to take stock of the NBA postseason awards. All week long, I will make my picks for some of the NBA's top awards at this point in the season, plus get betting angles from NBC Sports experts. Today: Coach of the Year.
NBA Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla (Celtics)
2. J.B. Bickerstaff (Pistons) 3. Jordan Ott (Suns)
Analysis of Coach of the Year race
This is always one of the hardest decisions of the year, in part because there are so many good coaches in the NBA. At different points in the past month, I had each of those top three as the winner. Right now, I am leaning toward Mazzulla.
It was difficult before the season started to find a mention of the Boston Celtics without the words "gap year" attached — Joe Mazzulla was having none of that. He has shown he can do more with less, putting role players in position to thrive and keeping the defense respectable despite not having a great rim protector on the roster. Mazzulla has a ring, but this is his best coaching job.
Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff is almost in a coin flip with Mazzulla for me, although it's two years of work — don't forget that two years ago this was a historically bad 14-win season. It's more than Cade Cunningham, Bickerstaff has helped Jalen Duren develop and put him in positions to succeed. He has coached the Pistons to the second-best defense in the league by understanding the talent he has and working to maximize it. Jordan Ott didn't just help change the culture in Phoenix, he has changed the defensive scheme to fit this roster and thrive, and he completely changed the shot diet for the Suns. Ott has been brilliant.
Mitch Johnson from the Spurs deserves consideration, as he has the Spurs far ahead of schedule. Do not forget about Mark Daigneault and his ability to keep the Thunder focused when most teams coast. David Adelman in Denver has to be mentioned in this conversation, the Nuggets have been hit hard with injuries and just keeps winning. Erik Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for what has gone right in Miami this season.
Betting Coach of the Year Race
We reached out to the NBC Sports betting experts for their thoughts on the Rookie of the Year race and how they might bet it.
Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst
A very strong field this year, but JB Bickerstaff deserves favoritism and should win the award if the Pistons hang onto the #1 seed. A team built in his image, Bickerstaff has taken a 14-68 team to a probable 1-seed in just two years.
The Atlanta Braves snuck this through the transaction wire earlier this week, but the team has brought back utility player/pitcher Luke Williams on a minor league deal. The moved happened the same day the team announced that Ha-Seong Kim will be lost for most of the first half of the regular seasons. The move to bring back Williams – who the Braves listed as a shortstop on their transaction – was speculated in the linked article.
While the Braves signed Jorge Mateo mid-week as a back-up shortstop option behind now presumed starter Mauricio Dubon, that doesn’t mean that Williams doesn’t have a path to a big-league roster spot at some point during the season.
As it stands now, the Braves do have one open position player spot on the 26-man roster. The addition of right-handed power-hitting reserve of some kind – Justin Turner, Gary Sanchez, maybe even Marcell Ozuna – seems like a more valuable addition to the roster than Williams.
Williams is not a good hitter. Full stop. He had a 0 (zero) wRC+ last year and for his career has a 63 wRC+. But, he is a good and versatile defender who can play in the middle infield and outfield. He is also a good base runner, making him an often-used pinch-runner option during his 221 games with Atlanta going back to 2023.
Here’s the punch-line to the joke that isn’t really a joke. Williams is also a useful pitcher. As a position player, he has pitched in 10 career games – including nine over the past two seasons with Atlanta.
In 2025, he made six appearances, tossing six innings and striking out four while allowing only two earned runs. His career WHIP is 1.18 with an xERA of 4.25 against an actual ERA of 3.27. His FIP and xFIP aren’t as good but this is a position player, not an actual full-time pitcher. Last year, if not for his own injury, he likely would have pitched in at least two more games.
Williams is-what-he-is. A player who can be useful as the 26th an on a roster where his positive attributes can be utilized if the other position players are going to see the majority of the playing time during the season. This has been something he has been able to do the last couple of season with Atlanta.
Is there a chance he is nothing more but break-in-case-of-emergency depth at Triple-A this season? Absolutely, and hopefully so. But don’t be surprised if Williams doesn’t appear with Atlanta at some point this season.