Good morning everyone! We’ve got much to report on as we get this Wednesday underway, so let’s get to it.

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, Shane Lantz at Baseball America spoke to Mariners farm director Justin Toole about the organization’s excitement for what Jonny Farmelo can do with a healthy season. ($)
• The Mariners announced their full slate of minor league coaches for the 2026 season.

Around the league…

• Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones were named to the 2026 Hall of Fame class, joining Contemporary Baseball Era Committee selection Jeff Kent. Though he was not inducted this cycle, Félix Hernández saw a 20% jump, boding well for his future chances.
• After years of speculation, Luis Robert, Jr. has finally been dealt — sent to the Mets in exchange for infielder Luisangel Acuña and righty Truman Pauley.
• The Marlins acquired right-hander Bradley Blalock in a deal with the Rockies.
• MLB owners are reportedly furious with the Dodgers’ signing of Kyle Tucker and plan to make a huge push for a salary cap next winter. Evan Drellich at The Athletic has the latest. ($)
• Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic explained why the looming danger of a lockout doesn’t seem to be changing how teams are operating this winter. ($)
• The Phillies are not taking Bo Bichette’s signing with the Mets well, with team president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski calling it a “gut punch.”
• Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong and young Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams formed a tight bond in a very modern way — through social media.
• Alden Gonzalez at ESPN provided an offseason check-in for the AL West.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs dug into how pitching stuff numbers have changed over the last several years now that all teams are prioritizing it.

Anders’ pick…

• For all of you film buffs out there, the New York Times unveiled its predictions for the 2026 Oscar Nominees.

It’s been an offseason of shocking, sobering change for the New York Mets. But as the comforting sight of pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training lurks just around the corner, there’s at least one thing fans will find familiar about the revamped team: the Mets’ roster is, once again, overflowing with infielders. 

Despite parting with longtime franchise stalwarts Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, the Mets somehow exit the winter with a more infield-heavy group than the one they sported last season. Trade acquisition Marcus Semien is slated to start at second base, while signings Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette will play new positions in first and third base, respectively. 

The new multi-year acquisitions — especially the signing of Bichette— will leave the Mets’ homegrown infield trio of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio scrounging for playing time once again. It’s becoming a familiar pattern for all three players, who have seen their names smattered across a variety of top prospect lists, mock trades, and minor and major league lineups over the past three years. It seemed 2026 might be a year when all three got the chance to start regularly at the major league level, but now that possibility feels as distant as the 2024 team’s “OMG”-infused energy. And as if it wasn’t clear enough from the Mets’ offseason thus far, their trading of Luisangel Acuña Jr. — a 23-year-old top prospect with six years of service time remaining — re-affirmed the motto of the offseason: no one from the 2025 Mets is a safe bet to remain in Queens.

So with just over two months until Opening Day, it’s time to once again evaluate where each of these promising young players stand as members of the Mets’ projected 2026 roster, as chips on the trade market, and as future big leaguers…

Mark Vientos(Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Among the Mets’ homegrown infield quartet, Mark Vientos has far and away displayed the highest upside at the major league level. In 2024, at just 24 years old, the right-handed hitter posted a .837 OPS in the regular season and a scalding .998 OPS with five homers in the postseason, positioning himself as one of the most exciting young bats in the game. But Vientos was unable to build on his stellar sophomore season, seeing his OPS drop to .702 in 2025.

If Vientos isn’t slugging, he isn’t adding much value via other facets of his game. Vientos recorded a 19th-percentile sprint speed and -7 Outs Above Average while primarily playing third base last season. The result was that he recorded -0.2 bWAR, a dismal mark bound to repeat itself if he bears a below-league-average OPS again. While there’s every chance his bat bounces back — he’s only 26 years old, after all — it’s understandable that the Mets might be hesitant to pin their hopes on a player whose floor is below replacement level. That doesn’t mean, though, that another team won’t be eager to take the risk. 

With the veteran Polanco slated for first base and the star Bichette slated for third base in the Mets’ Opening Day lineup, Vientos would once again have to earn his playing time the hard way, as he did back in early 2024. It’s a tough position to be in, something which Vientos has acknowledged before by calling it “extremely difficult” to improve in a part-time role. Rather than having him languish on their bench, the Mets might be more inclined to trade Vientos to an organization willing to let him play every day. This would afford Vientos the best shot to re-capture his lightning in a bottle success, award another team a hungry and talented young player with four years of team control remaining, and allow the Mets to negotiate the potential acquisition of a starting pitcher. But even if Vientos remains, he can still use that hunger to try and earn himself everyday playing time somehow. He’s done it before. Perhaps he can do it again.

Brett Baty (Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

A first-round draft pick and top prospect, Brett Baty did not have the sizzling start to his career that some anticipated, but he’s improved markedly with each season spent in the majors. In 2023, he recorded -0.7 bWAR with a 66 OPS+ in 108 games. Over 50 games in 2024, his OPS+ rose to 81. In 2025, Baty finally earned everyday playing time, putting up a 111 OPS+ fueled by hot streaks in May and August. Baty saw his time split between third base and second base, recording 2 OAA at third and -1 OAA at second.

It’s hard to envision Baty being a more reliable bat in the lineup than Bichette, who has posted an OPS+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven big-league seasons. But if Baty’s pattern of offensive improvement continues and he rakes off the bench, there are still a few potential paths to increased playing time. One path is if Bichette’s third base defense is worse than or comparable to his middle infield defense, which could compel the Mets to move him to DH and give Baty starts at third. A second path is if Semien repeats his early-season struggles from 2025. The second baseman had an OPS of just .507 through his first 50 games last season, and while Semien still provides high-end defensive value, the Mets may not have as much patience for those offensive struggles given their plethora of infield options. In that case, Baty would be a candidate to get starts (or at least pinch-hit opportunities) in Semien’s place. 

A third path is if Baty sees time in left field, something which Jon Heyman recently reported that the Mets are envisioning, and which David Stearns alluded to as a possibility way back in December 2024. Baty has played exactly one major league inning at left field, but he played 29 games there in the minor leagues. Will Sammon also reported on Sunday that “the Mets want Brett Baty to perform the utility role that they formerly envisioned for Jeff McNeil,” including potentially seeing time at first base. Like Vientos, Baty’s four years of team control and proven upside make him an attractive trade candidate; but the fact that Baty isn’t a fielding liability and that the organization see him as a versatile defensive option means he has a higher chance of providing meaningful value to the 2026 Mets.

Ronny Mauricio (Entering age-25 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Ronny Mauricio currently holds an 84 OPS+ over 292 big league plate appearances, but most Mets fans will tell you that number doesn’t reflect his offensive potential. One reason is because, in contrast with the two players we’ve discussed thus far, Mauricio has never really gotten an earnest shot to be an everyday player at the major league level. After a cup of coffee in September 2023, Mauricio missed all of 2024 and the start of 2025 with a right knee injury. While Mauricio then spent the majority of the 2025 season in the majors, he received sporadic playing time, only starting in 43 games over four months. It’s understandably difficult for a 24-year-old to adjust to major league pitching while only getting a handful of at-bats per week, and so the Mets are yet to see exactly what Mauricio would be capable of if given consistent playing time.

Another reason to believe in Mauricio’s potential is that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. His first major league hit was a double off Logan Gilbert which registered a 117.3-mph exit velocity, making Mauricio one of only 10 players to hit a ball that hard during the 2023 season. In 2025, Mauricio recorded an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which ranked sixth among Mets with 100 plate appearances. Mauricio has also delivered some fairly clutch moments. Of the six homers he hit in 2025, five put the Mets ahead or tied the game, and four of those five came in the sixth inning or later.

But despite his promise, Mauricio has nonetheless struggled to make contact and lay off pitches outside the zone, with a 33.9 Whiff% and 39.9 Chase% last season. It’s difficult to imagine those numbers would keep up if Mauricio was given more consistent playing time, but it’s also difficult to imagine Mauricio getting the opportunity to improve meaningfully on the 2026 Mets’ roster. Second base and third base belong to Semien and Bichette, and if one needs a day off or misses time due to injury, Baty — not Mauricio — would surely be the next man up. Mauricio’s ceiling may very well be the highest of all four of the Mets’ infield trade candidates, but Mauricio’s floor is also the biggest unknown of the bunch. As Amazin’ Avenue’s Lukas Vlahos wrote in Mauricio’s season review, “It is of course easy to dream on the lightning quick bat and gargantuan home runs he pops off every once in a while, but we’ve been talking for a half-decade about the same problems here with little improvement.” A team with belief in Mauricio’s bat and a middle-infield spot open might be a better home for the young slugger than Queens in the coming seasons.

“They wanted to put a right-hander in the lineup and I took advantage of that.” That’s how Andruw Jones described getting the opportunity from then-manager Bobby Cox and then-General Manager John Schuerholz to join that 1996 Atlanta Braves team that went on to win the pennant. Jones famously hit two homers in his first two at-bats during Game 1 of the World Series and became the youngest player in history to hit a homer during the Postseason — and the World Series, at that — at just age-19.

However, if you let Andruw tell it, he’d say that the World Series title would’ve been nice but there was another title that he had his eyes on in 1996. “I was kind of mad that I got moved up to Double-A because I really wanted to win a championship in A-Ball,” said Jones when he was asked about his experience in that season. “You didn’t think about [the World Series]. All of a sudden, you’re in the World Series. All I wanted to do was just learn, get better and win. I always wanted to win and just get the opportunity to play the game that you love […] My dad told me a long time ago, ‘Take advantage of the opportunity’ and that’s what. wanted to do for my whole career.”

Jones took full advantage of the opportunity he got back in ‘96 and that was the start of what is now a Baseball Hall of Fame career for the Curaçao native. The importance of being the first Hall of Famer from the island wasn’t lost upon Jones, who expressed gratitude for his home helping to shape him into the player that he’d eventually become. “Since we grew up, we [in Curaçao] wanted to play baseball,” stated Andruw. “I will say ‘Thank you’ to Hensley Meulens for giving us the opportunity to be the first guy who opened the door for us. Curaçao had so many guys that signed professionally that never made it. I used to work out with them and they taught me so much about what to look forward to in the minor leagues so I can be successful. I took advantage of all those opportunities that those guys gave me, so to be the first guy to make it from Curaçao is a great honor and I know we’re going to have more people coming.”

While Andruw Jones was quick to remember the role that Curaçao played in his path towards Cooperstown, he also made sure to remind everybody that he is still very much in love with the Braves organization. “Big shout-out to Braves Country,” stated Jones when asked about his connection to the city. “I know everybody supported me throughout my whole career. Even when I left, the fans supported me. They knew I was always going to be a Brave and it was just a great time. I went to different teams but I always was a Brave. I was always loyal to the Braves.”

“I still live in Atlanta, my kids grew up in Atlanta. I feel like I live in Atlanta more than Curaçao. I’m basically an Atlantan,” stated Andruw. Jones went on to talk about how he was excited about already being in the Braves Hall of Fame before saying that he was proud to help get another member of the Atlanta Braves into the Hall of Fame. So, if you had any question about what logo is going to be on Andruw’s hat on his plaque, I think it’s safe to assume that there’s going to be “A” logo on that plaque in Cooperstown.

While Andruw Jones is certainly happy to finally receive his day in the sun later on this Summer and also rubbed shoulders with a ton of Hall of Famers (both teammates and mentors alike) on his way to Cooperstown, Jones did admit that he never really saw it as a focus of his career. “I didn’t play this game to be a Hall of Famer,” stated Andruw when asked about how it felt to finally be inducted. “I played this game to help my team win. Obviously we didn’t win a championship but we won our division every single year for fourteen-straight [years].”

He was definitely proud of being part of that divisional dynasty but Jones did eventually admit that it was pretty cool to say that he could be considered in the same class as other baseball legends in the Hall of Fame. “To be honest with you, it’s just a great honor to just be within that class,” admitted Andruw. “As a baseball player, we all know how hard it is to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame. To get that chance is just one of those things you would never forget. To be in a class with all of those greats all of those legends…it’s just a great honor.”

So while Andruw Jones was effusive in his praise and admiration of his fellow Hall of Famers, it was one thing from Chipper that helped keep him motivated while he was patiently waiting for his Hall of Fame chances to improve. “The one thing that Chipper said a long time ago is that ‘I don’t think the Hall of Fame would be complete without [Andruw] being in it. I think his wish came true. I’m so honored and so proud to be part of that big group,” which included Bobby Cox, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and then Chipper Jones as well.

While there’s always an aura of “What if” surrounding those ‘90s Braves teams, it’s clear based on their presence in Cooperstown that that group certainly made a significant impact on the landscape of baseball during their era. Andruw Jones always looked like he fit right in with the rest of those elite names and now he’ll have the plaque and spot in Cooperstown to prove it.

The San Diego Padres have won precisely one World Series game in the history of their franchise. On October 10, 1984, they defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 in Game 2 of that season’s Fall Classic. Their starter, Ed Whitson, gave up more runs (three) than he recorded outs (two). So out of the bullpen came 24-year-old Andy Hawkins, who’d been abysmal for the Padres in ’84 (-1.6 bWAR). All he did was hurl 5.1 frames of shutout ball, earning himself the win.

Several years later, Hawkins found himself on the free agent market and identified the Yankees as a team he thought would be competitive during his tenure. Ultimately, he signed on the dotted line to come to the Bronx. He was, sadly, completely wrong on the Yankees’ timeline to be competitive, so he never came close to the AL pennants he hoped for. Nonetheless, he holds a place in Yankee lore, tossing one of the more infamous no-hitters in baseball history.

Name: Melton Andrew Hawkins
Born: January 21, 1960 (Waco, TX)
Yankees Tenure: 1989-91

Hawkins grew up in Texas, playing baseball. Larger than many of his peers, his father (and eventually his coach) realized he needed to be pushed. The talent was never in question, though. When the 1978 MLB Amateur Draft rolled around, Hawkins did not have to wait long for his name to get called. Picking fifth overall, the San Diego Padres nabbed the 18-year-old.

By 1982, Hawkins found himself in the majors, where he embarked on an inconsistent trajectory. In limited action his rookie season, he struggled. But the next season, far from a sophomore slump, Hawkins put together one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 2.93 ERA (121 ERA+) in 119.2 innings. 1984, however, was the exact opposite as he pitched poorly enough to get demoted to the bullpen before earning his World Series redemption (he ended up pitching in three games that October, allowing one run in 12 innings).

After an excellent 1985, he struggled again the next two seasons. But with his free agency approaching, Hawkins picked an excellent time to have a bounce-back season in 1988. That December, the Yankees showed up to the Winter Meetings, looking to perhaps offload Dave Winfield. When that looked like a losing proposition, General Manager Bob Quinn quickly pivoted.

At the top of their list? The 28-year-old Hawkins, fresh off a 14-win season in San Diego. It did not take long for a deal to come together. A day after the initial reporting on Hawkins emerged in the New York Times, he and the Yanks came to an agreement. Hawkins signed a 3-year, $3.6 million deal, the largest and longest deal he was offered in free agency.

Manager Dallas Green immediately designated Hawkins the “anchor” of the Yanks’ rotation. That raised some eyebrows. Murray Chass, in the Times, remarked that the label “raised instant questions about the talent that will make up the rotation.”

Hawkins was up-and-down in his first half-season as a Yankee. He won 11 of his first 19 starts, going at least seven innings in 10 of them… but… his ERA spent all of May and June bouncing between 5.00+ and 6.00+. It looked like he’d steadied the ship with back-to-back shutouts to move him to 11-8. Then the wheels fell off. He went 4-7 the remainder of the season as the Yanks sunk to a fifth-place finish in the AL East.

1990 was no better. By mid-May, Hawkins was 1-3 with an ERA north of 7.00. Then he took the mound on May 16^th. And he was perfect. Except… the weather did not cooperate. Hawkins faced 13 hitters. He retired 13 hitters. Eventually though, the game was called and later made up as part of a double-header. It’s easy to find in his game logs. Just look for the game where Hawkins is credited for pitching 11.2 innings versus Minnesota. It was not the last time in 1990 that Hawkins crossed paths with baseball immortality.

The game he’s most known for happened that season on July 1^st. Facing the Chicago White Sox, Hawkins opened with 4.2 perfect frames before walking a pair, ensuring there would be no perfect game. He still allowed nary a hit though. Fast forward to the eighth inning. An error put a man on for Chicago then Hawkins again walked a pair of Pale Hose batters to load the bases.

Robin Ventura then lofted a fly ball to left that, in the swirling winds, clanked off Jim Leyritz’s glove. Three runs scored on the error, the second of the inning. A fourth run followed on yet another error, before Hawkins could escape. Still with the no-hitter intact, he and the Yanks now trailed 4-0 and ultimately lost by that margin.

That was the high point as a Yankee for Hawkins, which is strangely fitting in a way. Neither he nor the club found the success each hoped for when he signed his deal. He struggled for the rest of the 1990 season and he was so bad in ’91 that the Yankees released him in early May. He signed with the Athletics nine days later and spent the next four months pitching for them before they released him, ending his major league career as a player.

Several years after his retirement, Hawkins got back into baseball, this time as a coach. He spent 2001-15 (except for one season in Kansas City) with the Rangers staff. After disappearing from baseball for a couple years, Hawkins now coaches with the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League. Happy birthday, Andy.

References

Andy Hawkins. Baseball-Reference.

Chass, Murray.“ Baseball; Yankees Woo Hawkins After Trade Talks Fail.” New York Times. December 8, 1988.

Chass, Murray. “Yanks Sign Hawkins To $3.6 Million Pact.” New York Times. December 9, 1988.

Curry, Jack. “Hawkins is Perfect; Weather is Not.” New York Times. May 17, 1990.

Thornley, Stew. “Andy Hawkins.” SABR.

Thornley, Stew. “July 1, 1990: Andy Hawkins no-hitter is ‘no winner’ for Yankees.” SABR.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The final review of the 2025 season will be looking at each position in the Astros farm system. Next up is the outfield position.

BEST OF THE BUNCH

Alonzo Tredwell

Tredwell was the Astros 2nd round pick back in the 2023 draft and he had a breakout season this year. The right-hander pitched across three different levels and posted a 3.69 ERA with 122 strikeouts over 100 innings. This included a dominant 40 strikeouts over 22.2 innings in Double-A to end the season.

2025 Stats: 26 G, 3.69 ERA, 100.0 IP, 85 H, 41 ER, 45 BB, 122 K, 11.0 K/9

Bryce Mayer

Mayer, a 16th round pick in last year’s draft and looks to be another diamond for the Astros. The right-hander started in Single-A and struck out 30 over 17.2 innings earning a promotion to High-A. In Asheville he posted a 2.85 ERA with 45 K in 41 innings. He finished the season in Double-A striking out 37 over 29 innings. He was the Astros minor league pitcher of the year.

2025 Stats: 21 G, 4.11 ERA, 87.2 IP, 76 H, 40 ER, 27 BB, 112 K, 11.5 K/9

Miguel Ullola

Ullola started the season well and then hit a rough patch but turned it around late. In his first full season in Triple-A, Ullola posted a 3.88 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 113.2 innings. He also allowed just 75 hits, good for a .186 batting average against. When he cuts down on the walks, he is dominant.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.88 ERA, 113.2 IP, 75 H, 49 ER, 78 BB, 131 K, 10.4 K/9

Ethan Pecko

Pecko had some injuries early in the year but after getting healthy, the 2024 minor league pitcher of the year got back to his normal self. He had a 4.40 ERA in Double-A but that included a 1.75 ERA over his final six outings in Double-A. He got a promotion to Triple-A where he finished with a 3.09 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 35 innings. He should be in Houston in 2026.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 3.83 ERA, 80.0 IP, 73 H, 34 ER, 27 BB, 95 K, 10.7 K/9

Trey Dombroski

After a tough season in 2024 for Dombroski, he turned things around this year. The left-hander posted a 3.61 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 112.1 innings. He allowed just 91 hits in Double-A good for a 7.3 H/9, down from 11.1 H/9 last year. He made two starts in Triple-A too and should start there next season.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.95 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

THE REST OF THE PACK

Joan Ogando

Ogando pitched the full season for the Woodpeckers and had some ups and downs. The 21-year-old had a 4.07 ERA overall, but had some really good months posting a 3.24 ERA in April and a 3.18 ERA in June. Overall he finished with 113 strikeouts in 94.2 innings, though he did walk 69.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.09 ERA, 94.2 IP, 55 H, 43 ER, 69 BB, 13 K, 10.7 K/9

Anthony Cruz

Cruz is an undersized right-hander who put together a solid season in 2025. He started the year in Fayetteville and had a 3.75 ERA with 84 strikeouts over 84 innings. He earned a promotion to High-A where he had a 5.12 ERA, though he also had 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. Overall he had a 4.01 ERA.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.01 ERA, 103.1 IP, 87 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 104 K, 9.1 K/9

Jose Fleury

Fleury has been on the radar as a possible top prospect for a couple of seasons now. He started out the season on fire posting a 0.82 ERA with 25 K in 22 innings in April. He missed some time in May but came back in June and was eventually promoted to Triple-A where he had a 6.95 ERA over 45.1 innings.

2025 Stats: 23 G, 4.55 ERA, 85.0 IP, 74 H, 43 ER, 35 BB, 78 K, 8.3 K/9

Jackson Nezuh

Nezuh had a monster first year in the system in 2024 but struggled some in Double-A in 2025. He finished the season strong though posting a 1.67 ERA over his final six games. He would end up finishing the season with a 4.34 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 76.2 innings between Double-A and a couple outings in the FCL.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 4.34 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

2026 OUTLOOK

Pitching is always tricky. As it stands, the Astros will be leaning on Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Cristian Javier and newly acquired Tatsuya Imai. The Astros have some strong arms in Ullola, Pecko and Mayer. Then some other strong options like Tredwell, Forcucci (hasn’t pitched yet) and Dombroski. As we have seen in previous years, we know the Astros will need well more than five starters so plenty of chances for these prospects to shine in 2026.

27. Riley Kelly (79 points, 10 ballots)

Kelly was Colorado’s fourth round pick, 107th overall, in the 2025 draft out of UC-Irvine. The 6’5” 21-year-old righty starter signed for a $700k bonus, just about $15k under the slot value. Like many other high Rockies draftees, Kelly was a high school quarterback with some good athleticism. He was thought of highly enough in high school to be in the top 250 of MLB Pipeline and get drafted in the 20th round in 2022 by Arizona (though he didn’t sign). His standout trait is a high-RPM (3,000+) curveball, combined with low to mid-90s velocity and a decent changeup.

The first couple years of college didn’t go well for Kelly, who threw only 20 1/3 innings with poor results while battling a back injury. In his draft year, Kelly started the season in the bullpen for UC-Irvine before moving back to the rotation in mid-March. In his second start, he outdueled eventual 2025 #2 overall pick Tyler Bremner en route to a season total of 66 2/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 rate, and 4.3 BB/9 rate. Kelly didn’t pitch in an official game in the Rockies’ system after signing.

Here’s a look at Kelly after his sophomore campaign in 2024:

Kelly was ranked 139th overall by MLB Pipeline in the draft (20 spots ahead of Rockies third round pick and fellow PuRP Ethan Hedges) and is now ranked 19th in the system (two spots behind Hedges) as a 40 FV player with 55 grades on his fastball and curveball:

Kelly’s fastball sits around 92-93 mph and he can crank it up to 96 at times. But his best pitch has always been his curve, especially when he can land it for strikes. It’s a nasty 11-to-5 breaker thrown in the upper 70s that routinely registers over 3,000 rpm and flashes plus. He has a low-80s changeup that can be effective as well.

While Kelly’s strike-throwing has been inconsistent, scouts saw better quality strikes with the move to the rotation. He should get every opportunity to start, with the knowledge that the fastball-curve combination could tick up if he had to move back to the ‘pen.

Here’s what Keith Law of the Athletic wrote about Kelly after the 2025 draft:

UC Irvine right-hander Riley Kelly (4) moved from the Anteaters’ bullpen to the rotation this year and blossomed, making 12 starts along with five relief appearances and lowering his ERA by a run and a half. He’s up to 96 but he sits more 91-93, generating a ton of whiffs on his 82-85-mph straight change, although his 11/5 curveball looks like it should be his best pitch. He has 45 control right now, but if that gets to 50, he’s a starter.

If Kelly can command that hammer, generate a bit more velocity on the fastball, and stick in the rotation, he becomes an interesting starter prospect. Pending that evidence, I ranked Kelly as a 35+ FV player with some upside and put him 26th on my list. Kelly will start 2026 at High-A Spokane or Low-A Fresno, probably the latter.

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