Fantasy baseball draft season is kicking into high gear, which means we’re all on the hunt for value. In this article, I’m going to look at some post-hype starting pitchers who I think could provide major value based on where they’re going in drafts. I wrote a similar article last year;you can click here to check it out. That article mentioned Shane Baz, Gavin Williams, Brayan Bello, and Luis L. Ortiz, among others, so there was some value uncovered despite having a few misses as well.
Post-hype, for me, means somebody who was either a top prospect or had considerable buzz in previous seasons but failed to live up to it. They need to have languished in the minors for longer than expected or struggled in an extended major league attempt. Since they’re no longer hyped, they also need to be going outside of the top 200 in current drafts, which means none of these are slam dunks to outproduce their draft value, but they’re guys who I think have a good chance to do so.
NOTE: All ADP data is taken from NFBC Rotowire Online Championship drafts from January 12th to February 9th (16 drafts)
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FANTASY BASEBALL POST-HYPE STARTING PITCHERS
For me, when I'm identifying a player like this, who I think can out-produce their perceived value, I'm looking for a few specific things.
- A path to playing time (this seems obvious, but is perhaps the most crucial part to finding late value)
- Some present skills that are above-average MLB skills (also obvious, but I'm chasing upside, not a safe floor)
- A clear roadmap to improvement (I don't want the hypothetical "What if he's better?" I need a clear, realistic way for him to be better
Bryce Miller - SP, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 234)
Bryce Miller may seem like an odd inclusion on this list because he's a well-known starting pitcher who recorded a 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 180.1 innings in 2024. However, there was a belief at the time that his underlying skills were not as dominant as the stats appeared, and then Miller was hurt last season and pitched to a 5.68 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and just an 18.7% strikeout rate in 90.1 innings. As you can see from his ADP, drafters are not as enamored with him as they were heading into last season.
Obviously, the injury plays a part in that. Miller pitched through a bone spur in his elbow this past season and, last we heard, had no intention of getting surgery this offseason. It's right to be concerned about that; however, we also know that his elbow is structurally sound, and he's only managing the bone spur, which is something he and renowned elbow specialist Dr. Keith Meister plan to address through gel cortisone injections (not PRP injections). Considering Miller allowed just four runs in 14 1/3 playoff innings in 2025, and looked relatively healthy while doing so, there's enough evidence here to suggest that Miller could head into the 2026 season healthy.
That would be a big boost to his case for re-capturing his old level, but another would be the improvement of his secondary pitches. We know Miller has a tremendous fastball. It has been the foundational piece of his success in his 402 MLB innings. The pitch sits 95 mph with elite Induced Vertical Break (iVB), which, given his release point, gives him an incredibly flat fastball that misses tons of bats at the top of the strike zone. He also commands the pitch well. It's a true weapon. The issue has been finding another weapon.
His splitter is a solid pitch, but it's really more of a changeup. He locates it in the zone way more often than a normal splitter and has just league-average swinging strike rates (SwStr%) on it. He does use it often in two-strike counts, but the PutAway Rate on it is below league-average, so it's not really a pitch he gets punchouts on. He has also tinkered with a curve, slider, and sweeper to go along with his sinker. None of those pitches has really popped as an above-average secondary, so this is where the path to improvement lies with Miller. We've seen his teammates, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, also struggle to land on consistent secondary pitches. It's part of the natural growth for many pitchers. Miller has an elite fastball and a primary secondary that he can command for strikes and get league-average swings and misses on. If he can take a step forward with just one of his other breaking balls, we could see him get back to the levels he showcased in 2024 on one of the better teams in the AL.
Joey Cantillo - SP, Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 275)
I've been a fan of Cantillo's for a little bit, and I spoke with him in August of last season about how his time in the bullpen shaped his ability as a starting pitcher. While he may not seem like a post-hype prospect to many, Cantillo was a fast-emerging pitching prospect back in 2019, when he posted a 2.26 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 144/34 K/BB ratio in 111.2 innings in the Padres organization. He was then a key part of the trade that sent Mike Clevinger from the Guardians to the Padres. He then settled in as a top 10 prospect in the Guardians organization but never quite matched the success of 2019.
However, we started to see glimpses of it at the end of last season. Cantillo rejoined the rotation at the end of the year and, in his final 10 starts of the season, posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 54/22 K/BB ratio in 54.1 innings. He had a really strong 32.5% CSW and 13% SwStr% over that stretch as well.
Much of that success is led by his changeup, which is a legitimately dominant pitch. While he uses it more against righties, where it boasts a 26.1% SwStr%, Cantillo will throw it to all hitters and, as he told me in August, he's seen real strides with the offering once he started throwing it for strikes and trusting that its elite movement would lead to success. Much Like Bryce Miller's fastball, it's a real foundational weapon.
The next step forward for Cantillo, which we started to see down the stretch, is to regain some of the lost velocity on his four-seam fastball and also get more comfortable with his curve to give him a third pitch he can trust. His four-seam fastball has elite 7.4 feet of extension, so it gets on hitters fast and can make 92 mph seem like 95 mph. He locates it well, which is crucial for him to help set up that changeup. Cantillo also got more comfortable with his curve at the end of the season, locating it in the zone far more often, which led to a 17% SwStr% against lefties and well above-average overall strike rate. All of that gives Cantillo a path to success that I can believe in, and he now comes into the season with a rotation spot he can feel confident in. That could lead to a breakout season for the 26-year-old.
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Zebby Matthews - SP, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 292)
Yes, I'm still in on Zebby Matthews. He was one of the "deep sleepers" that I was highest on heading into the 2025 season, and then he posted a 5.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate in 79.1 innings. Now, some of that had to do with battling injuries during the season, but the truth is that Zebby never quite put it together, and a lot of people are turning the page. This is where the post hype part comes in.
In his final start of the season, Zebby was sitting just under 96 mph with his four-seam fastball. That's still up one mph from 2024. It's a flat fastball with mediocre extension that he commands well in the zone, which leads to above-average swinging strike rates against both righties and lefties. I understand that it's not an elite fastball, and it did get hit hard this year, but I think he can miss bats with it, especially if he starts to use the cutter and sinker more often to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer.
Zebby's slider is also a plus pitch. It had a 22% SwStr% last year, and it's effective to both righties and lefties because it's a hard, gyro slider. He throws it often in two-strike counts to all hitters, and it has plus PutAway Rates to both, with an elite 28% rate to lefties. Having a platoon neutral secondary like that is an awesome foundation.
Now, the rest of the arsenal is where we need to see a step forward. He has a cutter, which gets swings and misses versus lefties, but he uses it low in the zone 51% of the time, and it gets hit hard. I'd like to see him jam lefties inside with it more and at least use it up and down the zone because I know he likes to use it to set up the slider against lefties because it can be hard to tell the difference. His changeup is just average, but it doesn't get hit hard, and his curveball actually grades out as a decent pitch, but one that he struggles to command as well as we'd like.
One of these pitches needs to take a step forward. Having three fastball variations and an elite secondary is a good foundation for success, and some improvement in cutter location or some tweak to the changeup or curve could unlock another level for Zebby. He's just 25 years old and has had consistent success at all levels of the minor leagues, so I would bet on him making the necessary adjustments to reclaim some value.
Ian Seymour - SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 298)
On one of our late-season "On the Corner" podcast episodes, Nick Pollock of Pitcher List and I were discussing just how many lefties without elite velocity had tremendous success in 2025 (Trevor Rogers, Andrew Abbott, Matthew Boyd, Noah Cameron, Kris Bubic, and many others). We decided that the key element all of those pitchers shared is elite control and a plus changeup. Considering left-handed pitchers are going to face primarily right-handed hitters, having a wicked changeup is oftentimes more than enough to establish a baseline of success. From that discussion, Nick coined the term SWATCH: Southpaw With a Tremendous Changeup.
Ian Seymour is a SWATCH. He used his changeup 32% of the time last year and threw it to both righties and lefties. To lefties, he keeps it in the zone often, locating it well in the lower third of the zone but not always inside. It still boasts an above-average SwStr% and plus PutAway Rate, but it's more of a strike pitch because he also has a sweeper that he uses 43% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties. Against righties, Seymour keeps his changeup in the zone far less often, but it gets a tremendous 20% SwStr% because of all the chases he gets by keeping the pitch low and away. He uses it almost 40% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and has an 84th percentile PutAway Rate on it. It's a great offering.
So we established that Seymour has a great changeup, which gives us a good foundation for success. His four-seam fastball is a good pitch against lefties and a mediocre pitch against righties. However, he keeps it up in the zone well to righties, which is important because that's also where he throws a cutter that he uses 27% of the time to righties. That fastball pairing is really just about limiting damage and then setting him up to use the changeup. He also has a sinker that he'll mix in to lefties, so he has a deep enough arsenal to get ahead in counts and then set up his lethal weapon. All of that is enticing.
The value here comes from the fact that some sites don't project Seymour to make the rotation. Instead, they have Tampa Bay starting Shane McClanahan, Steven Matz, and Joe Boyle over Seymour. I'm sorry, but I don't see that being how it plays out. I love McClanahan, but it's hard to trust his health right now. We also have yet to see Matz have extended success as a starter, and even if they promised him he'd get a shot to start in spring training, he was far better as a reliever. Similarly, Joe Boyle has no track record of MLB success as a starter, and I have major doubts about his command. Meanwhile, Seymour has always been one of the top prospects in Tampa Bay's farm system as a starter and led all qualified minor leaguers in ERA in 2024 when he posted a 2.35 mark. He was a good starting pitching prospect before they used him as a reliever so they could expedite his path to the majors. I think he's in for a breakout season as a starter in 2026.
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D.J. Short
Andrew Painter - SP, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 310)
Andrew Painter is currently the 16th-ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline's mid-season rankings, and is only 22 years old, so you may be asking how he's post hype. In my view, his level of hype has fallen considerably since he posted a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 38.7% strikeout rate in 103.2 innings split across three levels in 2022. Since that time, he had Tommy John surgery that kept him from throwing any innings in both 2023 and 2024, and then returned in 2025 but had a 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 23.4% strikeout rate in 106.2 innings at Triple-A.
Not being on the mound for two years and then pitching poorly when he did return has a lot of people questioning just what kind of upside Painter has.
To some extent, we should have expected him to be rusty. Two years off while rehabbing from injury will force any pitcher to have to re-learn some things that used to come naturally to them, whether it's grips or mechanics, etc. There is also the fact that Triple-A teams use a different baseball and have a different type of Automated Strike Zone than Double-A teams. That's a lot of adjustments that Painter had to make on the fly, and he struggled with it.
However, he did still show off that big fastball that can touch triple digits while pairing that with a plus changeup, a hard slider, and a slower curve. The command of everything was a little off in 2025, but the movement profiles were similar enough to what we saw before the surgery, and his arm held up to over 100 innings of professional baseball again. Those are all positive signs.
The Phillies currently have a spot in their rotation open with Ranger Suarez signing with the Red Sox, so there is a chance Painter claims that start right from the outset of the season. There will likely be some ups and downs, as there are with every rookie's MLB debut, but Painter still has the raw tools to be a good MLB arm and now might have the opportunity to show it off.
Reid Detmers - SP, Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 334)
In my article with Cantillo that I linked to above, he spoke to me about how pitching out of the bullpen can help you become more effective and intentional about your arsenal. Could we see the same thing happen with Reid Detmers now that we know Detmers is coming into Spring Training as a starter?
The 10th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Detmers had been the Angels' top prospect for a while and was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball, according to Baseball America, heading into the 2022 season. He was promoted to the big leagues in 2022 after just 68 total minor league innings, and many believed that he had the makings of an ace. He was solid enough as a 22-year-old in 2022, but every year after that seemed like a step backwards, and the Angels made him a reliever last season after he didn't win a rotation spot in spring training.
As a reliever for the Angels last season, Detmers posted a 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate. He was even better when you factor in a brief adjustment period to his new role. From June 1st on, Detmers posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate.
In that stretch, we saw him use his four-seam fastball nearly 43% of the time while throwing his slider 35% of the time and curve 19%. He seemed to get rid of his changeup altogether and added back in a sinker that he used only to lefties. Against lefties, he also threw his slider 57% and his four-seam fastball just 25%. As a starter in 2024, he used his slider 32% of the time to lefties and his four-seamer 53% of the time. Cantillo told me that, as a reliever, you realize that you don't have time to mess around and learn to simply rely on your best pitch. For Detmers, that is his slider, and it eats up lefties with a 24% SwStr%. Maybe the split won't be that stark as a starter, but I expect him to lean on that slider more often.
Another change was that Detmers went to his curve more often against righties as a reliever. He threw it 15% of the time to righties as a starter in 2024, but 25% of the time in 2025. The pitch doesn't really miss bats, but he threw it 76% of the time early in counts, where he was able to pound the strike zone and produced a 93rd-percentile called strike rate. That would help take pressure off of the four-seam fastball and set up his slider, which had a 75th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties. His four-seam fastball also had a 90th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties as Detmers got it up in the zone far more often.
At the end of the day, Detmers has always had talent, but he was potentially pushed too soon, and the infrastructure around him didn't allow him to develop as many hoped. A year spent in the bullpen may have taught him how to harness his arsenal and attack hitters more effectively. He now has two fastballs for lefties and a wipeout slider, and pitching backwards to righties more often has set up his slider and a better-located four-seam fastball for more success. He's only 26 years old, and we may be about to get his best season ever as a pro.
Robert Gasser - Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 458)
On an early January episode of "On the Corner," Nick and I discussed our favorite “Super Sleepers” at their current cost, and I ended with Gasser. Even on that show, I admitted that I wasn't entirely convinced in the call, but he did check a lot of the boxes that I was looking for. In 2024, Gasser ranked as the 6th-best prospect in Milwaukee's system. He was coming off a 2023 season where he led all of Triple-A in strikeouts with 166 in 135.1 innings. That came with a 3.79 ERA and seemed to announce him as a legitimate prospect. He struggled to start the 2024 season, still got a call-up to the big leagues, and posted a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings across five starts, but the strikeouts didn't carry over, and then he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.
However, Gasser did return for 43.2 innings in 2025, including a 2.37 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate in 38 Triple-A innings. The fact that we saw him on the mound last season and pitching healthily is key to projecting his health for the 2026 season. His four-seam fastball velocity was right around 93 mph last year, so it was only slightly below what we're used to seeing, and he still had that big sweeping breaking ball. Generally speaking, that sweeper is his best weapon. It's a big, slow, breaking ball that eats up lefties but actually performs better to righties than you'd think. The reason for that is that Gasser, when he was healthy, also used a sinker 24% of the time to righties. His sinker has aggressive horizontal movement away from righties, while the sweeper has the mirror opposite type of movement down and in on righties. The two pitches that tunnel well together to create some deception. That's how he got plenty of strikeouts in the minors, but it didn't immediately carry over to the big leagues.
I believe he can get that combination to work better in the big leagues, but aside from that, his 93 mph four-seamer has good extension and a flat height-adjusted attack angle, so it works well upstairs, which is where he throws it. He also has a changeup that grades out well, and he commands it well in the zone. I think that could become a bigger part of his arsenal against MLB hitters.
Overall, there are a lot of things to like about Gasser, even if his MLB strikeout numbers haven't been great, albeit in a small sample. As of now, he is not projected to make the Brewers' rotation; however, I see a few paths that he could. For one, after the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, that opened up a spot. They still have no lefties in their rotation, and it's not like Chad Patrick is a lock to hold down the fifth spot. Yes, he had a good year last year, but he has never been that good in the big leagues, and he has minor league options remaining. Remember how good Tobias Myers was in 2024, and then the Brewers shipped him to the minors really quickly in 2025? That could be Chad Patrick. Gasser is three years older than Logan Henderson, so I think he'd get the chance before Henderson, even if he wasn't a lefty, but he is, and they need one.
I'm not saying Gasser is going to carry your fantasy team, but I think he could be a good value at his current cost and remind people why he was such a well-regarded prospect.
UPDATE: After the Caleb Durbin trade this morning, Robert Gasser is no longer the only LHP option for the rotation. Everything written above is still true, and I believe he would get a chance before Kyle Harrison, but obviously, Gasser now has more competition for a role.
Kyle Harrison - SP, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: Undrafted)
Kyle Harrison was just traded to the Brewers this morning, which takes away one of my main arguments that the Red Sox would like nothing more than to show that they got back something in value from the Rafael Devers trade, rather than the deal just being a salary dump. But, yeah, that trade was just a salary dump. Still, there is also plenty of pedigree for the Brewers to bank on here since Harrison was the 18th-ranked prospect in all of baseball in 2023 and was the Giants' top pitching prospect heading into 2024.
Yet, all of that has amounted to just a 4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate in 194.2 MLB innings. That's not going to cut it.
The reasons for optimism in Harrison are that the Red Sox clearly saw something they liked in him, and the organization under Craig Breslow has been tremendous at developing minor league pitching talent. Remember that the Red Sox acquired Quinn Priester from the Pirates, tweaked his arsenal, and then wound up trading him to the Brewers. Could Kyle Harrison be next?
After Boston acquired Harrison from San Francisco, the Red Sox changed his changeup grip and then added a cutter to his arsenal in the hopes of giving him another fastball offering for right-handed hitters and also allowing his four-seam fastball to play up more. Neither of those pitches looked particularly impressive in his three appearances to the end of the season, but it's important to note how hard it is to learn new pitches in the middle of the season. Most pitchers will use countless sessions over an entire offseason to fine-tune a new pitch, so Harrison's inability to immediately change two pitches and make them plus pitches shouldn't be a sign that he won't be able to improve those pitches in the future.
He's just 25 years old and will now have an entire offseason to continue working on the changes that the development team was making without also having to worry about his results in the middle of a game. Even without those pitching clicking, Harrison allowed four runs in 12 innings for the Red Sox in September while striking out 13 and walking five. That's not a bad stretch. Now, he did also allow 14 hits and posted just a 10.5% SwStr%, so it wasn't an elite performance, but he was once a top prospect and now has a full offseason to incorporate new pitches into his arsenal. Given what I said above about Gasser, there is a case for Harrison to get a shot to make the rotation; however, I think the Brewers will want more time to work with him, and he's younger than Gasser and Logan Henderson, who feel likely to get chances before him.
Matthew Pouliot
