Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets on September 1

Following a 9-8, 10-inning win for Boston in the opener last night, the Mariners (64-74) and the Red Sox (75-63) continue their three-game series tonight at Fenway.

 

Seattle appeared poised to steal the opener after battling back and generating offense throughout the night. The Mariners totaled 11 hits receiving contributions up and down the lineup. The Sox got one more hit and ultimately, one more run. They forced extra innings with two runs in the eighth on a Trevor Story double and one in the ninth on a sac fly from Ceddanne Rafaela before Story again picked up a big hit in the tenth, a single to center, driving in Eli White to win it for the Red Sox. Aroldis Chapman picked up the win. Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh went yard for the Mariners, but it was not enough.

 

Seattle closed the month of August with five straight losses and now sit six games behind the Astros in the AL West and 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot. The Red Sox snapped a brief two-game losing streak with the win to pull within three games of the Yankees and the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

 

Seattle looks to snap the skid with right-hander Bryan Woo (9-9, 4.36 ERA) on the bump. Woo's most recent outing came August 26 against Philadelphia, and it was one of his rougher starts of the year. The Phillies tagged him for six earned runs on five hits over four innings, including a pair of home runs. He struck out five but was unable to work deep into the game as Seattle lost 6-0. The righthander fared far better in his previous two starts. He allowed two runs in six innings at Houston on August 16 and threw five scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium on August 11. The Red Sox have yet to announce their starter for tonight. It was Sonny Gray’s (16-4, 2.79 ERA) turn to take the ball but Boston earlier announced they planned to give him an extra day of rest.

 

Lets dive further into today’s game and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Mariners vs. Red Sox

  • Date: Tuesday, September 1, 2026
  • Time: 6:45PM EST
  • Site: Fenway Park
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Mariners.TV, NESN

 

Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.

 

The Latest Odds: Mariners vs. Red Sox

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Seattle Mariners (+111), Boston Red Sox (-119)
  • Spread: Mariners +1.5 (-207), Red Sox -1.5 (+169)
  • Total: 7.0 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers – Mariners vs. Red Sox for September 1

  • Red Sox: TBD
    Season Totals:
  • Mariners: Bryan Woo
    Season Totals: 142.1 IP, 9-9, 4.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 142K, 30 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Mariners vs. Red Sox

  • Adley Rutschman is 4-9 in his career including 1 HR against Bryan Woo
  • Bryan Woo has struck out exactly 5 hitters in each of his last 4 starts and never fewer than five in his last 9 starts
  • Cal Raleigh has hit in 3 straight games (4-11) and homered 7 times in his last 10 GP
  • Josh Naylor is 2-15 over his last 4GP
  • Roman Anthony is 4-8 in 2GP since returning from the disabled list
  • Mickey Gasper was 1-4 last night and finished August hitting .400 (12-30) for the month
  • Julio Rodriguez is 2-20 over his last 5 games

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Mariners vs. Red Sox

  • The Mariners are an MLB-worst 52-86 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 67-71 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 70 times in Seattle’s 138 games this season (70-61-7)
  • The OVER has cashed 65 times in Boston’s 138 games this season (65-69-4)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Mariners vs. Red Sox for September 1

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Mariners and the Red Sox:

 

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Red Sox on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.0

 

 

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This might be the greatest home run robbery in MLB history

There is nothing like a home run robbery to demolish the morale of an opposing team, but what happened on Monday night between the Orioles and Rockies was downright heartbreaking for Colorado.

Jake McCarthy of the Rockies thought he had a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth — heck, the entire stadium thought he did a well. A deep shot to center field with a man on, it appeared as though home fans would be rewarded for sitting through a two-hour rain delay. Unfortunately for them, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser happened.

There are some moments in sports where everything just happens to come together cosmically to allow a moment to happen. Everything about this robbery wasn’t just picture perfect, it was dang near impossible as Cowser went full Air Jordan on the extension to throw his glove behind his head, over the fence, and just pray the ball would somehow find leather.

The announcers couldn’t even believe it at first, and neither could Rockies manager Warren Schaffer, who said the catch was “like a dang knife in the heart” during his post-game interview. Just an absolute stunner, and one of the best catches you will ever see.

Arizona Diamondbacks News 9/1: Boos and Lose

Aug 31, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks designated hitter Ketel Marte reacts in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Game Recaps

Phillies, Stott end blazing August with an all-around win vs. D-backs by Michael Reynolds [MLB]

The Phillies closed July having lost four straight games and four straight series, but they opened August with four straight wins and never looked back. 

With a 2-1 victory over the D-backs in Monday’s series opener, the Phillies closed August at 21-7, tied for the 10th-best month by winning percentage in club history. They’ve swept four of their last five series and are riding a five-game heater.

Bryson Stott hits a solo HR, Phillies beat the Diamondbacks 2-1 to cap 21-win August [ESPN]

Stott crushed a 464-foot homer to right field in the second that gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead. Bryce Harper‘s double off the center field wall in the third scored Garrett Stubbs and pushed the advantage to 2-0.

Nola (6-10) pitched into the sixth inning, giving up one run on five hits and two walks, striking out five. The veteran right-hander has given up two runs or less in five straight starts.

Diamondbacks News

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte & Torey Lovullo full press conferences before the Phillies series [Arizona Sports]

Ketel Marte said he had no message for Diamondbacks fans, but they did by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

Boos from the Chase Field crowd overpowered the cheers when Ketel Marte stepped up to the plate on Monday, his first at-bat since his Boston no-show two weeks ago.

Before the game, Marte faced questions from the media, and when asked whether he had a message for Diamondbacks fans, Marte shook his head. Paying more attention to addressing his teammates, he neglected the fanbase that has been cheering him on for 10 years, essentially declining to swing at a meatball.

Diamondbacks Give New Injury Update on Gurriel, Burnes, Gallen & More by Jack Sommers [SI]

Lovullo could not say exactly when and where Burnes would pitch his next outing. It sounded like there was some concern that the velocity was not there yet (down 2 MPH on his signature cutter).

“Every time he throws a pitch, it’s shown at 90-91. It’s not the 92-94 that we know he can get to. It’s not a top end. So I know there’s some that say yes, and I’m in that camp that you’re building up that overall number. And it’s not the same, but we want that big number,” Lovullo said.

Around the League

Cubs set franchise record with nine homers in rout of Brewers by Jordan Bastian [MLB]

The North Siders welcomed the rival Brewers to Wrigley Field for the opener of a crucial four-game series and flexed their propensity for power en route to a 17-3 routAlex Bregman went deep three times as part of a nine-homer attack that set a single-game record for home runs in the long, storied history of the Cubs.

The nine homers are tied for the second-most in a game in MLB history since at least 1900, trailing only the 10 homers launched by the Blue Jays on Sept. 14, 1987. Chicago’s 62 homers in August set a one-month record for the team, and are second all-time for a calendar month in baseball history. Only the 2019 Yankees (74 in August) have hit more. 

Chisholm Jr., Yankees criticize Red Sox radio voice Flemming by Alden Gonzalez[ESPN]

There was no radio silence from the Yankees on Monday, a day after comments made by Boston Red Sox play-by-play announcer Will Flemming added some fuel to the longtime rivalry.

In fact, several Yankees players went out of their way to openly criticize Flemming, calling him “unprofessional” and questioning why a radio voice would suggest a team throw at an opposing player.

Flemming, who works for Boston radio station WEEI, first called Jazz Chisholm Jr. a “bush league player” after he stole a pair of bases in the eighth inning of Sunday’s series finale in the Bronx with New York ahead 7-1. He then suggested to WEEI color analyst Will Middlebrooks that Red Sox left-hander Jovani Moran retaliate by beaning Yankees catcher Austin Wells, who was batting at the time.

Padres To Promote Ethan Salas by Anthony Franco [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Padres are calling up top catching prospect Ethan Salas, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Salas, who turned 20 in June, will be the youngest player in the big leagues (assuming no one takes that title from him tomorrow).

Yankees Rivalry Roundup: Red Sox win topsy-turvy game against Mariners

BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 31: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after hitting a two run home run in the second inning during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Monday, August 31, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Yankees’ West Coast trip didn’t get off to the best start, opening up their series against the Angels with a 10-1 loss that felt over pretty early. Whether it was a hangover from the blowout win they got on Sunday, the cross-country travel after playing four games in three days, or just a genuine bad night, at the end of the day it counts as an L in the record books all the same. Looking around across the league, there was at least one major rival that didn’t take advantage of their blunder.

Tampa Bay Rays (82-55) 2, New York Mets (62-76) 3

The odds didn’t look great for the Mets upsetting the Rays when they didn’t start Juan Soto for the opener of this series, but as it turned out they still had enough to get the job done. Robert Stock took the ball for the Metropolitans and delivered 5.1 innings without allowing a run, scattering five hits throughout his outing. The only time he came under threat was in the fifth when the first three Rays all got aboard on singles, but Stock managed to induce a weak pop up and a strikeout before Jonathan Aranda lined out to end the frame.

New York had taken the lead an inning earlier, Mark Vientos still managing to bring a run in on a double-play ball, but they remained shut down by Ian Seymour otherwise until the seventh inning. There, Vientos made up for not making the most out of his earlier RBI chance by depositing a ball over the wall in left-center to lead off the inning. Seymour got his 10th strikeout after that, but got hooked after giving up a single to Christopher Morel and had to watch as the Mets stringed a couple more hits together to push the lead to 3-0. Tampa finally got themselves on the scoreboard in the eighth inning against Daniel Duarte, collecting three singles and a walk to generate a pair of runs, but against Kodai Senga in the ninth they wasted a leadoff walk going down in order right after.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (75-63) 9, Seattle Mariners (64-74) 8 (10 innings): Oh Seattle, what a disappointing season you’ve had. The Mariners’ frustrating run continued with an extra-inning loss after they blew a three-run lead late on the road. They scored right away getting a Randy Arozarena leadoff double and a Julio Rodriguez double to follow up, but Mickey Gasper tied it right up with a solo shot in the bottom half of the first (continuing a small sample run that’s nevertheless one of the hottest months a hitter’s ever had). Boston then built their first lead of the night on a Jarren Duran two-run homer in the second, which Seattle immediately cut into with an Arozarena solo shot in the third and tied back up when Arozarena singled in a run in the fifth.

Boston was back at it in the bottom half of the fifth, Ceddanne Rafaela singling in a pair of runs to re-take the lead, but Seattle responded right away with a four-run sixth. Arozarena was again at the center of the offensive push, adding two more runs batted in to lead the way with four overall before Dominic Canzone followed with a two-run double to put the Mariners up 7-5. Cal Raleigh got into the mix in the seventh with a solo shot pushing the lead to three, but Boston was far from dead. Recently reinstated from the IL, Trevor Story doubled in a pair of runs in the eighth to cut the deficit to one before fellow reinforcement Roman Anthony led off the ninth with a triple that ate up Rodriguez out in center. Rafaela brought him home on a sac fly to tie the game and force extras, where the Mariners bunted their Manfred runner over to third before striking out to end their chances. Needing a clean inning, the M’s chose to intentionally walk two batters to get their matchup against Story with the force on everywhere, but Story laced a hit to the wall in center to walk it off.

Chicago White Sox (72-65) 3, Houston Astros (70-68) 6: In a battle of the other two divisions’ leaders, Houston came out on top. Anthony Kay was doing decently for Chicago through three innings, allowing only an unearned run through a couple of groundouts up until that point. In the fourth with a 2-1 lead though, Cam Smith tripled and Nelson Velázquez brought him in with a two-run shot to left to take the lead. Then the fifth inning fully undid him, a trio of singles loading the bases before he walked in a run and got pulled a batter later. Trevor Richards entered to face Smith, but he got his second extra-base hit of the night lining a double to drive in two more runs. Up 6-2, the Astros’ bullpen did a solid job covering 4.1 innings with four pitchers, only allowing a solo shot to Colson Montgomery in the seventh inning.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Texas Rangers (68-70) 8, Athletics (53-85) 1: The Rangers ran this one from the onset, scoring in the second inning and pouring it on over the next three. Elias Díaz and Cody Freeman gave Texas all the offense they’d need when the former grounded a run in and the latter slapped an RBI single in the second, supporting Jacob deGrom as he twirled seven shutout innings and allowed just a single hit all day, a leadoff single in the top of the second that got erased on a double play. The A’s lone run came in the ninth when Jonah Heim ripped a double to put runners on second and third and Darell Hernaiz lifted a sacrifice fly, but they couldn’t scratch any more across as the next two A’s went down without much of a fight.

Baltimore Orioles (69-69) 2, Colorado Rockies (52-86) 1: The Orioles got their lead in the seventh inning when Colton Cowser managed to beat out a double play ball to bring in a run on the force out. Cowser’s contributions didn’t stop there, however: he made the play of the game robbing Jake McCarthy of a potential walk-off home run with two outs in the ninth on a full-extension leap to steal victory out of the jaws of defeat.

Can Astros Find September Magic for Another Postseason Run?

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 06: Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros is congratulated by teammates in his dugout after hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 06, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With the calendar turning to September, the burning question in Astros fans hearts and minds is “if” they’ll be returning to the postseason.      After all, it’s been an agonizing 23 months since the playoff loss to the Tigers.    

September is a magical time.     For this author, nothing compares to Mike Scott’s no-hitter at the Dome on September 25, 1986 against the Giants.     Scott’s 13 K performance, the roar of the crowd, many of which refused to head to the exits long after the contest was etched in stone, is cemented in my sports fandom.     Clinching the division that day for just the second time in franchise history, and to do it at home was extra special.   

Five years earlier, Nolan Ryan’s fifth no hitter also took place at the Dome.    Ironically, Dusty Baker struck out on three straight pitches to end the one-sided affair.     With the win, Ryan passed Sandy Koufax’s record of four no-no’s.    

1999 saw the Killer B’s era culminate with a third straight NL Central title.     That particular September, they’d win 19 games.     

Of course, the 2019 Astros took a back seat to no one.    They’d win 107 games and the final month of the regular season started off with a bang.     After laboring through the first inning, tossing 21 pitches, Justin Verlander would settle in and throw his third career no hitter.    That would propel Houston to a dominant month from start to finish.    

In terms of saving the best for last, Vanessa Williams would be proud.     Jeff Bagwell would wait until September 30th of the 2000 campaign to launch his 47th.     The blast would come off of Brewers pitcher Everett Stull. Fun fact, Stull would win only 2 games in his brief MLB career.    

There have been monumental surprises in September as well.    Who can forget the unthinkable three game sweep in 2023 to the lowly Royals, who would drop a whopping 102 games that year?      There was also forgotten hero Jason Heyward who stepped in for Yordan Alvarez in securing a division title two seasons ago.     Heyward would not only hit a go-ahead homer against Seattle, but he’d also make some stellar defensive plays throughout their run.    

For the current batch of Astros, the road to the playoffs is a variety snack pack in the grocery store aisle.  On one hand, they’ll face some of the elite, such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves.     The Phillies and White Sox are also marching towards the playoffs.      On the flipside, they’ll face the Royals and A’s, who will be hovering around 100 losses by the time they close the books on the regular season.     Then of course are the dreaded Mariners, who on the 22nd and 23rd of this month will host us for a mini two game series.     Seattle has won 9 out of 11 meetings head-to-head thus far.     

Will the magical moment come from Josh Hader on the final day?    Will it come in dramatic fashion from Yordan Alvarez as he continues his chase for baseball’s triple crown?     One thing is for certain, fasten your seatbelts, it’s sure to be a wild ride.    

This Week in the Minors: Hunter Owen wraps up a good month of August

SPRINGDALE, AR - AUGUST 12: Hunter Owen #33 of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals stares in from the mound to pitch during the game between the Arkansas Travelers and the Northwest Arkansas Naturals at Arvest Ballpark on Tuesday, August 12, 2025 in Springdale, Arkansas. (Photo by Ada Pipkins/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)

This Week in the Minors is our weekly look at notable performances from all over the system, from big-name prospects and less-heralded guys alike. The mission is to answer this simple question: “Who had a good week?”

Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (59-70, 20.5 games back)

The Storm Chasers dropped 4 of 6 in their series against the Iowa Cubs. At the plate, Carson Roccaforte, one of the newer members for Omaha, went 9 for 24, smacking a pair of doubles and homers, driving in 6 and scoring 3 runs. He also stole 4 bases. Peyton Wilson went 7 for 14, with two doubles and a homer, driving in three and scoring three. He also stole 4 bases too. Gavin Cross, who just got back from the IL, went 3 for 13 with two homers.

On the mound, Lucas Braun made 2 starts, totaling 10 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 runs, walking 4 and striking out 9. My pick for the September call-up would be Braun on the pitching side. Matt Moore threw 3.2 scoreless innings of relief, over two outings, striking out 6. Tony Gonsolin, who may get some time in KC before the season is over, made his first appearance, going 3 innings, allowing just a walk, while striking out 3. Lucas Erceg pitched twice, totaling 3 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 runs, striking out 3.

The Storm Chasers return home this week, taking on the St. Paul Saints, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (53-71, 24 games back)

The Naturals split their 6-game series against the Frisco RoughRiders. On the mound, Hunter Owen made one start, going 5.2 innings, allowing 6 hits, 1 run, a walk, striking out 10. In the month of August, Owen struck out 45 batters in 27 innings. In his 5 starts, he posted just a 1.33 ERA. He is a 24-year-old lefty that the Royals drafted in the 4th round in 2023 out of Vanderbilt. Augusto Mendieta had two scoreless outings out of the bullpen, totaling 4.2 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks, but striking out 8. Frank Mozzicato had two more scoreless outings from the bullpen, totaling 4 hitless innings, he did walk 3, but struck out 4. Have the Royals found something with him in the pen? In 8 appearances in August, he went 11.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, walking 10, but striking out 17.

At the plate, Spencer Nivens went 8 for 22, with two doubles, three runs batted in, with 5 runs scored. Luke Pelzer went 6 for 18, with a double and triple, scoring five runs and stealing three bases. Javier Vaz went 5 for 15, with 4 doubles. It’s good to see Vaz back and playing. Hyungchan Um, who has quickly moved from Columbia to Quad Cities to Northwest Arkansas in recent weeks, went 2 for 10.

The Naturals hit the road this week, taking on the Arkansas Travelers. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Quad Cities River Bandits (67-54, 4.5 games back)

The River Bandits won 4 of 6 in their series against the Beloit Sky Carp. The Bandits are 37-21 in the second half, holding a two-game lead over the Sky Carp to win the second half. They control their own destiny to get to the playoffs. At the plate, Blake Mitchell went 4 for 18, with a homer and 5 runs batted in. Ramon Ramirez returned from injury and went 3 for 19, with a homer and 4 runs batted in. Austin Charles went 6 for 18, with two homers, driving in 4 runs. Zion Rose went 4 for 14, with a double and two runs batted in.

On the mound, David Shields went 6 innings, allowing 3 hits, 2 runs, striking out 7 in his lone start of the week. Jordan Woods went 4.2 innings, allowing 5 hits, 1 run, striking out 4. Ethan McElvain threw 3 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out 1. McElvain was the Royals 5th round pick out of Arkansas this year. Kamden Edge threw 3.1 scoreless, hitless innings, striking out 5. L.P. Langevin threw 4 innings, allowing an unearned run to score, but struck out 10 batters. John Means, born in Olathe, Kansas, started his rehab assignment from a torn Achillies. He made 2 starts in the week, totaling 3 innings, allowing 5 hits, 3 runs, walking 1 and striking out 1. Kendry Chourio made one start, going 3 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, striking out 4.

The River Bandits are on the road this week, taking on the Peoria Chiefs. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the last regular season series of the year.

Columbia Fireflies (63-62, 14.5 games back)

The Fireflies won 4 of 6 in their series against the Charleston RiverDogs. On the mound, Shane Van Dam went 4 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run, striking out 3 in his lone start of the week. Van Dam is a 22-year-old right hander, who the Royals took in the 9th round of the 2025 draft out of North Carolina State. Adrian Belen threw 3.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out one. Ryan McDonagh went 4 innings, allowing 1 hit, no runs, striking out 2 in his lone start of the week. Overall, it was a solid week on the mound for the Fireflies whole pitching staff.

At the plate, Tyson Moran went 5 for 16 with a double and triple, scoring 3 runs. Moran is a 20-year-old shortstop, who the Royals took in the 13th round last year from Canada. He just got to Columbia from the ACL. Connor Rasmussen went 5 for 16 with two doubles and a triple, with two RBI’s and 3 runs scored. Ricson Gonzalez went 6 for 11, driving in two and scoring two. Gonzalez is a 21-year-old catcher from Venezuela; he just recently got promoted from the ACL. The Royals signed Gonzalez when he was 17. Daniel Lopez went 4 for 10, scoring a run and driving one in. Lopez is a 20-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic. The Royals signed him when he was just 17 years old.

The Fireflies are on the road this week, taking on the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the final series of the year for the Fireflies.

Washington Nationals call up the powerful Yohandy Morales

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 15, 2024: Yohandy Morales #35 of the Washington Nationals runs out a single during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Mets at Clover Park on March 15, 2024 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

The Nats are calling up one of the more intriguing hitters in their system. Yohandy Morales was the Nationals second round pick in the 2023 draft. After grinding his way through minors, the 24 year old is finally going to get his first look at the minor leagues. It is tough to say this call up is not deserved.

Morales was one of the biggest stories in the Nats minor league system to start the season. He looked ready for the big leagues after a red hot start to the season, but the Nats were hesitant to call him up. We will get into some of those reasons later, but first let’s start with the positives.

This year Morales has been highly productive. In 104 games at AAA, Morales is hitting .286 with 25 homers and an .882 OPS. The right handed slugger makes consistent hard contact with an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH and a hard hit rate of 52.4%. All this hard contact, combined with lower launch angles allows Morales to consistently run high BABIP’s. Despite being a high strikeout guy, Morales is a .285 career hitter in the minors.

While he is a high strikeout guy, those numbers have gotten better this season. In AAA, his K% has gone from over 30% to 24.4% this year. He has also been able to turn his plus raw power into more actual home runs this year as well. Over half of his 47 MILB homers have come this season.

Morales has not done this by pulling the ball in the air though. His pull air numbers are very low and instead he uses the whole field to go yard. A lot of his best swings are to right-center field. This is both a blessing and a curse.

The ability to use the whole field and use it with authority is a rare gift. However, I think part of this might be due to him not being on time enough. Morales has had real trouble with high velocity, and will only see more of it up in the big leagues.

Honestly, Morales’ offensive profile reminds me quite a bit of Brady House. We saw how House struggled when he first came up. Morales might face similar growing pains. However, it is tough to tell how much he will even play down the stretch.

As a first baseman and third baseman, there is not an obvious spot in the lineup for him. Andres Chaparro, Abimelec Ortiz, Jorbit Vivas and Brady House are all fighting for reps in those positions. We could see him some at DH, but I think he could be more of a part time player.

I am still very interested to see what Morales can do. His profile feels like it should not work, yet to this point he has been a highly productive hitter. He hits a lot of ground balls, chases, whiffs and doesn’t pull the ball. Yet, he has 25 homers on the season and has made it to the big leagues. 

With the lockout looming, it feels like some prospects are being held back. However, Morales had to be put on the 40-man roster anyways at the end of the season. That likely played a role in his call-up. Yo-Yo is an intriguing and somewhat divisive prospect. I am curious to see how this first exposure to the big leagues goes for him.

Padres blank Reds to get back in win column

CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 31: Manny Machado #13 and Dustin Harris #29 of the San Diego Padres celebrate after Machado scored a run in the fourth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 31, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The San Diego Padres had another big inning. But this time the pitching made the four-run fourth inning stand up and the Padres beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-0 to open their three-game series at Great American Ball Park on Monday.

San Diego was able to get to Cincinnati pitcher Brady Singer in the top of the fourth inning with six consecutive hits, which resulted in four runs. The only troubling part for the Padres was how the inning ended. Another failed bunt attempt that resulted in a pop out to the catcher was the first out of the inning and the inning ended one batter later with a ground ball double play.

The Padres opened the top of the fourth with a singles from Manny Machado and Ty France. With runners on the corners, Jackson Merrill brought home the first run of the game with s single through the right side of the infield. Xander Bogaerts followed with a two-run double and San Diego had a 3-0 lead with a runner in scoring position and still no outs. Dustin Harris brought Bogaerts in with another single and the Padres had a 4-0 advantage. Luis Campusano added the the fifth single of the inning to put runners at first and second. The momentum of the inning seemed to come crashing down when Sung-Mun Song popped a bunt into the air at home plate, which was caught for the first out of the inning. Singer was able to get out of the inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into and inning-ending 5-4-3 double play.

Michael King who had found himself in trouble in the first three innings stranding two runners on base in each frame, locked in with the lead. He worked a scoreless bottom of the fourth, facing just three batters and did the same in the fifth. King returned to the mound in the bottom of the sixth. He found himself in trouble once again and after a hit-by-pitch to put two on with two outs, Padres manager Craig Stammen came out to the mound. King convinced the first-year manager to leave him in the game and he rewarded him for his faith with a first-pitch line drive out to end the frame.

San Diego tacked on an insurance run in the top of the seventh inning after Tatis led off with a double to center field. Machado hit a one-out fly ball to right field, which allowed Tatis to tag up and advance to third. France delivered an RBI-single to give the Padres a 5-0 lead and was followed by Merrill with a single to put two runners on before Bogaerts filed out to end the inning.

King finished with six scoreless innings with just four hits allowed. He also walked three batters and hit two more, but he also recorded six strikeouts. Kyle Hart pitched two scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth innings and Wandy Peralta handled a scoreless ninth to help San Diego snap its three-game losing streak.

The Padres will try to make it two in a row and win the series with he Reds today at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

Baseball News:

Red Sox News & Links: Red Sox, Sonny Gray, start resting up for the playoffs

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - AUGUST 21: Sonny Gray #54 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Fenway Park on August 21, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sonny Gray will not start tonight for the Red Sox. He’s not hurt, he’s just getting a little break. “I feel fine,” Gray said. “I think it’s just taking a few days, getting my body recovered, fully recovered, and that was it. Physically, I feel really good. About a month ago, we just talked about it and said, ‘Let’s re-evaluate when we get to [this point].’ So that’s what we did.” The Red Sox have not yet announced who will take the mound tonight, in what will likely be a bullpen game. Reminder: the owners have made September baseball essentially meaningless now.(Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Willson Contreras seems to be in a similar situation with his hamstring. Nothing has happened to it recently and he hasn’t had anything that’s being labeled a setback. Rather, he’s simply been dealing with the balky hamstring for several weeks and is now taking some time to let it recover before the playoffs. “I don’t want to paint the picture that it’s like something way worse happened. Just a recurrence of the same thing,” Chad Tracy said. “The triple, doubleheader, a hard run there. It creeps up again. And he played [Sunday], and just with some irritation again. It’s just to the point where if we need to give him another few days to let it calm down, we’re getting to a point where it’s tough to be short bodies.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Luckily, Mickey Gasper was able to step right in for Contreras and pick up where he left off. Gasper was disappointed but understanding of the initial decision to send him back to Worcester. “GM is a tough job. Guys are coming back, and decisions had to be made,” he said, “so I understood why I was the man out.” But, in light of the fact that he was literally the best hitter in baseball during his time with the big league club, he did ask Craig Breslow what he needed to do to stay up. (Julian Benbow, Boston Globe)

It’s good that Gray and Contreras are getting some rest before the postseason. But you know what’s really restful? A nice, warm hug. Maybe that’s why Payton Tolle was giving them out on the field last night, even to people he’d never met. “It just kind of happened,” Tolle said about his hug with Dominic Canzone. “I was right there in front of him, like, ‘Bring it in for the big one.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

The opposite of a hug is wishing physical violence on someone, which is what WEEI play-by-play man Will Flemming did during Sunday’s game against the Yankees, when he urged Red Sox players to throw at Jazz Chisholm and fight Austin Wells. Needless to say, Flemming has apologized for being a giant ass. Naturally, though, he couldn’t apologize without also taking other people to task for their behavior: “Since I have been receiving nonstop calls and threats,” he wrote on Twitter, “I felt like it was important to hop back on here and say: My comments during yesterday’s broadcast crossed a line. I’m emotional and a fan at heart and that bled into the broadcast.” (Chad Finn, Boston.com)

Thoughts on an 8-1 Rangers win

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - AUGUST 31: Jacob Degrom #48 of the Texas Rangers throws a pitch during the third inning against the Athletics at Globe Life Field on August 31, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Rangers 8, A’s 1

  • Baseball is fun again.
  • And Jacob deGrom was dominant again.
  • Bouncing back from a disastrous eight run outing where he was knocked out in the fourth inning, deGrom looked like vintage deGrom once again, facing the minimum 21 batters over seven innings while allowing just one baserunner — Lawrence Butler, on a second inning single — who was then erased on a double play.
  • This is the second time in his last three games that deGrom has allowed just one hit.
  • What is interesting is that deGrom is generally either quite good, or not good at all. In 18 starts of his 26 starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
  • He’s allowed three runs in one start, and four runs in another start.
  • In his other six starts he has allowed five runs twice, six runs three times, and eight runs once.
  • The home/road splits are pretty extreme for deGrom this year…he has a 2.42 ERA in 13 starts at home, and a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts on the road. His walk rate is higher on the road, his K rate is lower, and 11 of the 17 homers he has allowed have come on the road.
  • With 8 Ks, deGrom moved up from 93rd to 88th on the all time strikeout list, passing Catfish Hunter, Dan Haren, Orel Hershiser, Rick Reuschel and Lance Lynn. He’s now 15 behind Aaron Nola, 27 behind Dazzy Vance, 35 behind Sonny Gray, and 52 behind Madison Bumgarner.
  • The game was far enough out of reach late that the newly-recalled Robby Ahlstrom and Ben “Power to the” Peoples got to go an inning apiece to finish things out. Ahlstrom faced the minimum, but sadly, Peoples allowed a run on two outs, ending both the shutout and the one hitter.
  • Per Statcast, the A’s had a .132 xBA in the game, so it wasn’t as if they were stinging the ball and just seeing it find gloves. Its the second lowest xBA allowed in a game this season by the Rangers, and the 79th lowest in the majors.
  • The Rangers scored early and often, putting runs on the board in four of the first five innings and taking a comfy 7-0 lead into the sixth inning.
  • Ezequiel Duran, anointed the leadoff man for the first time in his career, was 1 for 4 with a walk, and he is now slashing .273/.331/.448 on the year, which I don’t think any of us were expecting.
  • Duran has also started a game in every spot in the batting order this season, 1 through 9. I’m curious as to how often a player does that.
  • Justin Foscue homered. Way to go, Justin!
  • Cody Freeman had a couple of hits, as he continues to play regularly against lefthanded pitching.
  • It occurred to me when I was doing the lineup yesterday that I hadn’t typed in Nicky Lopez’s name for a while. His last start was on August 19 — since then, he has appeared in just six games, coming in in the middle or late innings. The last two times he has entered the game it was late in a blowout in place of Corey Seager, including in this game.
  • Seager, incidentally, drew a couple of walks, had a barreled fly out to the wall, and had a hard hit groundout. He’s cooled down from that stretch when he was getting two hits in every game it seemed like, but he’s fine.
  • Jacob deGrom touched 98.8 mph with his fastball, averaging 97.6 mph. Robby Ahlstrom’s fastball touched 96.4 mph. Ben Peoples maxed out at 95.3 mph with his fastball.
  • Ezequiel Duran had a 110.9 mph single and a 105.6 mph fly out. Justin Foscue had a 105.7 mph home run. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.6 mph fly out and a 101.5 mph fly out. Jake Burger had a 105.4 mph single amd a 103.2 mph double. Corey Seager had a 105.0 mph fly out. Elias Diaz had a 104.8 mph fly out.
  • That’s two in a row. The wins, they must continue.

'It Was Weird': Calle Jarnkrok Shares Frustration About Playing Under Former Maple Leafs Coach Craig Berube

The SHL's Brynas announced that they signed Calle Jarnkrok to a three-year contract on Monday, ending his 13-year NHL tenure. In the last four seasons of his NHL career, the right winger was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, playing a total of 200 regular-season games for the club from 2022-23 to 2025-26.

The final two years of that stint were particularly challenging for the veteran. He played just 75 games in that final pair of campaigns, scoring six goals and eight points in 56 appearances this past year, while his season prior was shortened due to a groin and sports hernia injury.

"I've had two tough years, and it feels a bit sad not to be able to finish over there the way I wanted," Jarnkrok told hockeysverige.se in Swedish. "That's maybe why the decision took a little longer. But now it feels good to have made up my mind."

One common denominator for those two disappointing seasons for Jarnkrok was that the team was under the guidance of former head coach Craig Berube.

Jarnkrok further opened up about the frustration of those last two seasons with the Maple Leafs in the NHL.

Craig Berube Admits The Crucial Mistake That Cost Him His Job With The Maple LeafsCraig Berube Admits The Crucial Mistake That Cost Him His Job With The Maple Leafs"If I had to do it all over again, I would never have done that.": Inside the final meeting and the tactical concessions that ultimately forced the Maple Leafs to cut ties with Craig Berube.

"Two years ago I couldn't play at all," Jarnkrok recalled. "But last year I came in and felt in really good shape, I scored goals...and then (Berube) put me in the stands. It was a little weird."

The 34-year-old is referencing his hot start to the 2025-26 campaign. In the first three outings of the season, Jarnkrok scored a goal in each game. At that point, he was second on the team in scoring, all while averaging 10:31 of ice time in that span. It was a very short sample size of what was to come, but a great start nonetheless.

After playing another two games for the Leafs and not continuing his scoring streak, he was scratched for game No. 6 of the regular season. He would come in and out of the lineup, but ended up featuring in 18 of Toronto's first 25 games of this past season.

Calle Jarnkrok’s Maple Leafs Tenure Reaches Official End With New Signing.Calle Jarnkrok’s Maple Leafs Tenure Reaches Official End With New Signing.After four seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and 13 in the NHL, Calle Jarnkrok is going back to Sweden to play for the SHL's Brynas.

Regardless, Jarnkrok wasn't pleased with how he was managed after the great start he thought he had and coming over the injury from the season before.

"I was very surprised," he said. "I understand that if I don't get to play when I score in every game like I did in the beginning...then it will be tough. It's the GM and the coach who decide, but it was an uphill battle. I did well but wasn't allowed to play. It was tough to motivate myself and keep going.

"It was a lot of fun playing in Toronto, even though the last year wasn't that fun. The whole city loves hockey, just like here in Gavle, and there's pressure with that. I think everyone who plays wants it that way," he added.

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Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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The high-flying Los Angeles Dodgers are priced as hefty 62% moneyline favorites tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium as they search for their fourth straight home victory. The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. 

My Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions expect L.A. to come out on top here against Michael McGreevy, who is struggling lately. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers (62%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael McGreevy is in a rough spell for the St. Louis Cardinals, giving the Los Angeles Dodgers a clear path tonight. The right-hander has a 5.70 FIP over his last two starts with command and homer issues, plus a 5.02 mark over the last month.

The Dodgers are not in peak offensive form, but their 102 wRC+ at home is enough to attack McGreevy.

Eric Lauer has struggled too, posting a 5.50 xERA over his last two outings, but he rarely works deep, and Los Angeles’ bullpen owns a respectable 4.12 FIP over its previous 18.1 frames.

Against a Cardinals lineup with a 77 wRC+ recently, the Dodgers have the better full-game profile.

Play this pick up to 65%.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Lauerhas been much more consistent at home this season, posting a 4.27 FIP, compared to a 5.96 mark on the road. 

Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (47%)

I’m leaning Under 8.5 here, even with both starters carrying some recent risk.

The Dodgers are not exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now, posting an 88 wRC+ with a poor .084 ISO over the last week. That makes it harder to trust them to fully punish McGreevy, even with his recent command and homer issues.

The Cardinals’ offense is also struggling, and Lauer should not need to be perfect with Los Angeles’ bullpen in decent shape behind him.

The biggest separator is St. Louis’ relief corps, which owns a 2.65 FIP over its last 27 2/3 innings with a 12.04 K/9.

Play this pick up to 55%.

Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 63-72, -17.90 units
  • Over/Under bets: 74-57, +5.50 units

Cardinals vs Dodgers weather

Weather at Dodger Stadium looks clean tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 75 F to 67 F. Winds are light to moderate at 7 to 9 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout. No delay concern, with cooler late-game conditions that could slightly limit carry.

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

  • Moneyline: Cardinals 39% | Dodgers 62%
  • Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (56%) | Dodgers -1.5 (45%)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (54%) | Under 8.5 (47%)

Cardinals vs Dodgers trend

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the game total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Cardinals vs Dodgers and game info

LocationDodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
DateTuesday, Sept. 1, 2026
First pitch10:10 p.m. ET
TVCardinals.TV, SNLA
Cardinals starting pitcherMichael McGreevy
(5-9, 3.86 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcherEric Lauer
(8-6, 4.78 ERA)

Cardinals vs Dodgers latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Tuesday Morning Texas Rangers Update

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - AUGUST 31: Jacob Degrom #48 of the Texas Rangers speaks with umpire Hunter Wendelstedt #21 during the first inning against the Athletics at Globe Life Field on August 31, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning.

The DMN’s Nate Sanchez writes about the Texas Rangers closing out August with an excellent performance from Jacob deGrom.

Kennedi Landry writes about deGrom’s seven innings of one-hit ball, which helped the Rangers enter September with a couple of wins in a row.

Jeff Wilson writes about deGrom rebounding from statistically one of his worst outings last week in Chicago to one of his best outings with Texas last evening.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Rangers will have to hope that a couple of last ditch veteran roster reinforcements can arrive sooner rather than later.

McFarland writes that reliever Robert Garcia could be an impact arm upon his return after missing much of the year.

And, the American League is terrible but Russell Dorsey writes that the Rangers could be a threat in October if they make it there.

Have a nice day!

Can Pete Alonso win the AL MVP?

BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 22: Pete Alonso #25 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on from the on deck circle during the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Saturday, August 22, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

This past offseason, Pete Alonso signed the richest deal in Orioles history, trading Queens for Baltimore and a deal for $155M/five years. Through the 138 games of Alonso’s Orioles career, you could argue the Polar Bear has been underpaid.

Alonso has undoubtedly been the heartbeat of an Orioles team that, after last night’s win in Colorado, sits 0.5 GBof the final AL Wild Card spot. He currently leads the Orioles in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBIs and OPS. He has an outside chance to become the 10th Oriole with 40+ home runs in a season, will undoubtedly top 100 RBIs and should become the first Oriole since Jonathan Villar in 2019 to play all 162 games. If Alonso isn’t voted as the unanimous Most Valuable Oriole at the end of the season, it would be an injustice.

However, his performance during the second half of the season has put him in the conversation for bigger awards. Since July 1st, Alonso is slashing .305/.394/.558 with 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 51 games. After collecting 20 multi-hit games over the first 87 games of the season, Alonso has 17 in those last 51 contests—including his first four-hit game as an Oriole last week in St. Louis. During the last two months, Alonso ranks fifth in the AL in hits, second in home runs, sixth in RBIs and second in OPS.

For most of the season, Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has been the presumptive AL MVP winner. After all, the Astros’ DH is still on pace to complete the American League’s first Triple Crown season since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. However, Alvarez’s grasp on each of those Triple Crown categories has become more and more tenuous of late. Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson (.311) is only five points behind Alvarez (.316) for the AL batting title. After homering twice over the weekend, the Rays’ Junior Caminero tied him with 37 long balls. And after his recent tear, Alonso sits only three RBIs behind Alvarez for the AL RBI lead.

Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the last AL MVP winner from a non-playoff team was Alex Rodriguez on the 2003 Texas Rangers—a fact which could play in Alonso’s favor. The Astros are one of many teams participating in the American League’s musical chair of mediocrity. Though currently leading the AL West, Houston only sits one game above .500 and two games above the second-place Rangers.

MVP awards can be largely narrative-driven. Could Alvarez’s MVP narrative survive both the loss of the Triple Crown and the Astros missing the playoffs? It’s possible, but if both of those came to pass, it’d certainly weaken his presumed stranglehold on this year’s MVP.

The Polar Bear could benefit from the reverse narrative. Should the Orioles complete their turnaround and secure a postseason spot, Alonso will undoubtedly get much of the credit for Baltimore’s unlikely comeback. After all, the Orioles traded away two of their best hitters at the deadline, leaving their prize free-agent acquisition as the only reliable force in their lineup. He’s responded by being a steadying force; one that’s given the other members of this lineup time to rise closer to his level.

Alonso winning the MVP is still probably as likely as when the Orioles had a 13.5% chance to make the playoffs. After all, FanDuel still lists Alvarez as a -20,000 favorite to take home the hardware come season’s end. But Alonso is sitting there with the third-best odds at +4500, just behind Caminero.

The Orioles’ 1B is also fighting against the positional value stigma that comes with playing first. Outside of José Abreu’s MVP from the shortened 2020 season, no 1B has won AL MVP since Justin Morneau twenty years ago. The position’s perceived lack of defensive importance means that 1B often get knocked down a peg in value statistics like WAR. Despite his excellent offensive numbers (and playing the best defense of his career), Alonso currently ranks 15th in bWAR.

In all likelihood, Alonso is on his way to the Orioles’ first top 3 MVP finish since Chris Davis in 2013. The Polar Bear is also likely to become the first 1B since Adrian Gonzalez to win Silver Slugger awards in both the National and American Leagues.

It has already been a debut season to remember for the Polar Bear in Baltimore, one that will hopefully end with an Orioles return to the postseason. And while Alvarez’s advantage in the MVP race is likely too great to overcome, Alonso’s season has been MVP-worthy.

Has the universe had enough of Dylan Lee?

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 31: Atlanta Braves pitcher Dylan Lee (52) delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Possibly one of the weirdest positive things about a member of the 2026 Atlanta Braves is that Dylan Lee is second among the team’s pitchers in fWAR, with 2.0. Among all pitchers, he is 71st with that mark. To be clear: every team has five-plus starters and a gaggle of relievers, and Lee is in the top 75 in production. Among relievers, he’s in the top ten, but really smack dab in a big cluster that runs from third to 20th.

Lee was dominant in terms of both peripherals and results-while-he-was-pitching for much of the season. From the start of the season through August 16, he had a WPA over 2.5 and had recorded 26 shutdowns to just five meltdowns. In fact, the tail end of that stretch was 13 consecutive appearances with positive WPA, which accounted for six of his 26 shutdowns. His pitching line was video game numbers-y: a 46 ERA-, 48 FIP-, and a 69 xFIP-. His HR/FB was 5.0 percent (three homers all year, two in the same series against the Orioles). His strand rate was above league average, his BABIP-against was an absurd 2.05, though he was also managing contact to a supreme degree (2.28 xERA, yet still higher than his actual ERA in that span). Basically, he was dominant, but also aided by stuff he couldn’t control amid that dominance. Thanks, universe!

And then, as they do sometimes but not always, things changed for Lee on a dime. Lee has made seven appearances since August 16. He has been saddled with a meltdown in five of them (and shutdowns in the other two). He hasn’t allowed a homer in any, but…

  • His FIP has been bad in two of the seven;
  • His xFIP has been bad in four of the seven;
  • His BABIP-against has been absurdly high in five of the seven;
  • His xERA/xwOBA-against has been bad in three of the seven (the most recent three); and
  • His aggregate line for these seven outings is 279/64/117.

The lack of homers hasn’t stopped him from accruing value. His pitching has been pretty bad, but it’s really split between his usual dominance in three outings (not in a row) and issues in four. Yes, two of his top four worst outings by xFIP have come in his bad stretch, but nothing else in his top (bottom?) ten. As you can probably tell by the 279 ERA-, this kind of looks like the universe getting back at him for the hubris and good fortune he enjoyed for pretty much the rest of the season. The only thing that hasn’t stung him in these seven outings has been his HR/FB.

Is this an effect of fatigue? It doesn’t quite look like it. His velocity hasn’t really budged, and is actually up slightly over earlier outings. He’s also gotten more chase. The issue has been fewer missed bats, especially on pitches outside the zone.

The reasons for this are fairly obvious once you look at some pitch plots. For the season, Lee has been relatively adept at spotting his slider on the lower glove-side edge. It sometimes drifts lower (below the zone) and sometimes higher (towards the middle of the plate), but he executes the pitcher’s pitch version of it often enough. Since August 19, it’s become more of a grab bag as to whether it ends up over the plate, too far below the zone, or in an intended spot. More minutely, it looks like it’s just missing below the zone. There’s less of a story with the four-seamer — maybe some are drifting below where he usually places them towards the upper part of the zone but nothing blatant. There’s no huge smoking gun as to why batters are making a bunch more contact on pitches outside the zone rather than missing them as they have. Maybe that’s the mechanism for the universe to get back at Lee…

…but honestly, it’s probably as simple as the fact that his first-pitch strike rate has fallen from about two-thirds before this stretch, to 50 percent in this stretch. That seems a more glaring change than anything else in this seven-outing stretch.

I don’t think there’s any real reason for concern, but I still somewhat expect Lee to catch an Injured List stint, even if there’s little suggest any kind of injury woe leading to performance issues. With a slightly-expanded September bullpen, the re-availability of Ray Kerr and the ability to shunt Brent Suter towards higher leverage, and the Braves’ usual foot-not-really-on-the-pedal approach to pitching management, that’s a way to give him a reset, even if that reset is just from the unrelenting pressure of the universe. If they don’t, though, I’d be surprised to see this rough stretch keep up, unless Lee somehow gets it in his head that he needs to do things differently in September after four-and-a-half months of near-unbridled success.