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The Cubs might be facing the Cardinals at exactly the right time. While St. Louis has been in free fall over the last three weeks, the Cubs are 10-6 since they lost to the Cardinals on the Fourth of July.

For more on the Cardinals, here’s Doc Holliday, manager of our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos.

The team is in a tailspin with almost zero offensive production. The Cardinals are 3-7 since the All-Star break and 6-13 since they defeated the Cubs at Wrigley Field in that foggy game July 4.

There are some bright spots on the pitching staff. Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy and Michael McGreevy (minus his last outing) have all been strong. Hunter Dobbins had a stellar outing against the Angels right after the break. Matthew Liberatore either needs to go to the bullpen or Memphis. Much of our community would pick the second option. Dustin May just completed a strong start that the Cardinals gave no run support to, so he’ll almost certainly be gone before the trade deadline.

The trade deadline is likely to be the big focus for the Cardinals as it’s likely that Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Dustin May and maybe even some other regulars get moved by President of Baseball Operations, Chaim Bloom. There are potential stars lurking in Memphis and I expect Bloom to make room for many of them while also stockpiling future talent.

The Cardinals are still technically in the Wild Card hunt, but it’s not real. As much as it pains me to say it, the Cubs will be playing St. Louis at the perfect time (for the Cubs).

Fun facts

The Cubs played 102 games between visits to St. Louis from their second trip last season and the first this year from May 29-31. The Cubs lost, 6-5; won, 6-1; and lost, 5-1, in that May series.

Since then, the Cubs have played 53 games, three of them vs. the Cards on July 3-5 at home, where they lost, 17-1 and 3-0, before winning, 5-4.

Last year, the Cubs were 3-4 at Busch Stadium, splitting a four-game series and losing two of three. They were 1-1 and 2-2 in 2024. They last won a series, 3-1, July 27-30, 2023.

The Cubs have not swept a series at St. Louis since Sept. 13-15, 2010. This is their 41st series there since then. They have been swept in 10 of the previous 40, most recently Sept. 2-4, 2022. One of the sweeps was four games and another was two.

The Cubs’ 2,532 total games vs. the Cardinals are their second most against any opponent, after 2,631 vs. the Pirates. In all those games, the Cubs have outscored the Cards by exactly two runs, 11,064 to 11,062. They lead the rivalry, 1,283 wins to 1,230, but are 567-677 at St. Louis. The 677 losses are their second most on the road, after 715 at Pittsburgh.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Monday: David Peterson, LHP (2-1, 5.57 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 5.06 FIP in four starts with Cubs; 5-7, 5.97 ERA, 1.562 WHIP, 4.14 FIP overall) vs. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (5-7, 5.18 ERA, 1.515 WHIP, 4.83 FIP)

Tuesday: Colin Rea, RHP (7-7, 4.85 ERA, 1.420 WHIP, 4.94 FIP) vs. Michael McGreevy, RHP (4-8, 3.07 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 4.23 FIP)

Wednesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (6-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 3.63 FIP) vs. Dustin May, RHP (5-7, 4.59 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 3.16 FIP)

Thursday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (7-8, 3.72 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 4.40 FIP) vs. Andre Pallante, RHP (11-6, 3.77 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 3.81 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Monday: 6:45 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Tuesday: 6:45 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, TBS (outside the Cubs and Cardinals market territories)

Wednesday: 6:45 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, Peacock (streaming, outside the Cubs and Cardinals market territories)

Thursday: 1:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb here. The Cubs are (relatively) hot and the Cardinals are not. The Cubs could really use a series where they take three of four, so I’m going to predict that.

Up next

The Cubs return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the New York Yankees beginning Friday afternoon.

The Wild Card Race

The following table shows my view of the Wild Card Race, updated Sunday morning. It shows the Diamondbacks are on track to win the third Wild Card in the NL. Another positive is that they have chances to overtake the Phillies for the second Wild Card in the NL. Most importantly, the table shows that if the Diamondbacks win this series, it will positively impact making the playoffs.

The Pirates have not reached the playoffs since 2015, when they lost a wild card game to the Cubs. Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta threw a complete-game four-hit shutout. Last season, their playoff chances were ended on 16 September per Grokipedia.

The Pirates are very motivated to add at the trade deadline so they can reach the playoffs. It is fortunate that the Diamondbacks play them now, before they add at the deadline.

UPDATE on Monday morning. The Nationals have moved into contention. The Diamondbacks lost on Sunday, but they are still on-track to reach the playoffs. Updated table follows:

Moved on From Santana.

The Diamondbacks moved on from Carlos Santana, while the Pirates moved on from Dennis Santana. 

Carlos Santana.  This season for the Diamondbacks, he played eight games at first base.  “Finally, Carlos Santana never made it back off the injured list, the team opting to DFA him rather than require a 40-man roster move to make room for him.” — Jim McLennan, SB Nation

Dennis Santana.  This season for the Pirates, his ERA was 6.05.  He earned 2 saves in 4 opportunities.  “2026 proved to be Santana’s worst year in the majors and [he] derailed multiple close games the Pirates had chances of winning.” — Austin Bechtold, SB Nation

Let’s compare the teams.

Offense. The Pirates offense made a big step upward from last season’s 3.60 runs scored per game.  This season through 24 July, the Pirates averaged more runs scored per game (5.24 vs 4.51 runs per game). 

Runners Left On Base. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.63 vs 7.46).

Defense. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks had much better defense (36 vs negative 11 OAA, 22 vs 4 DRS)

Bullpens. The Pirates bullpen is below average. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks bullpen had a better ERA (4.04 vs 4.40) and had more shutdown performances (101 vs 98).

Starting Pitcher Matchups.  In this series, the starter matchups are either equal or advantage Diamondbacks. Of the Pirates’ six starting pitchers, the Diamondbacks are fortunate this series to face the two with the lowest ERA+’s (Chandler and Keller).  

Pirates Player to Watch.

In case a starting pitcher injured, Khristian Curtis could be recalled to the Majors.  In his MLB debut, 18 July, he entered in the second inning, then pitched 5 scoreless innings!  Curtis is a nice-to-have pitcher waiting in AAA.

“Curtis did not simply survive his first major-league appearance. He controlled it. The 24-year-old attacked with a five-pitch mix, landed his cutter for strikes and used his slider to finish hitters. After allowing consecutive hits during his second inning of work, he escaped the threat and struck out the side in the next frame. His ability to adjust and continue working deep into the game looked more like a starter’s outing than a short-relief audition.”  — Colin Witte

Pitching Matchups.

Monday, 3:40 PM MST.

Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller.This season, Chandler had a slightly better ERA (4.43 vs 5.12), but more importantly, Kelly had more quality starts (7 vs 2).

This matchup is very slight advantage Diamondbacks.

Tuesday, 3:40 PM MST.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler.  This season, their ERAs were nearly the same (4.43 vs 4.47).  Although Chandler had more quality starts (3 out of 19 starts vs 2 out of 8 starts), Pfaadt had a higher percentage of quality starts.

This matchup is equal.

Wednesday, 9:35 AM MST.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones.  This season, Rodriguez had a much better ERA (2.64 vs 3.72) and many more quality starts (13 vs 2).

This matchup is big advantage Diamondbacks.

In the most recent edition of Rangers Reacts, we asked how you thought the Texas Rangers’ 2026 regular season would end — winning the division, missing the playoffs, or one of the Wild Card berths.

The voting was close for the top spot…

…but there were slightly more folks who think the Rangers will win the division than think the Rangers will miss out on the playoffs altogether. When including those who think the Rangers will claim one of the Wild Card spots, 59% of respondents think the Rangers will make the playoffs, which is pretty close to the Rangers’ actual playoff odds right now (57.4% before Monday’s game, per Fangraphs).

On the national voting, 85% of fans think Justin Verlander is a first ballot Hall of Famer, and I would like to think the other 15% mis-read the question or are trolling. Verlander is about as clear a first ballot Hall of Famer as you’re going to see for a starting pitcher in the 21st century.

Despite Verlander’s longevity and his playing primarily for very good teams in his career, he currently has “just” 266 career wins. The last pitcher notch his 300th win was Randy Johnson, who won his 303rd career game in 2009, his final season in the majors.

The only other active pitcher, besides Verlander, with at least 200 wins is Max Scherzer, with 222. And while Scherzer hasn’t announced he is retiring at season’s end, like Verlander has, getting another 78 wins seems pretty much out of reach for him.

The only other pitchers with at least 150 wins are Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale. They each have 156 career victories, and just getting to 200 will probably be difficult for either of them. Then there’s 36 year old Sonny Gray, at 137 wins, 36 year old Zach Wheeler, at 123 wins, and Kevin Gausman (35) and Michael Wacha (34), who are tied at 116 wins.

The highest win total for a pitcher who is under the age of 30 is 75, for the 29 year old Logan Webb. Tarik Skubal, born two days after Webb, is next, at 61. Logan Gilbert (who turned 29 in April) notched his 55th career win yesterday against the Rangers, tying him with Brady Singer, who turns 30 next week.

As the greatest musician to ever walk this earth, Prince Rogers Nelson, once said, “forever…that’s a mighty long time,” and so I hesitate to ever say never. That said, with the way the game is currently played, I don’t see there being a 300 game winner again unless the rules (either on-field or scoring) change significantly.

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There is distance growing between the first-place White Sox and those pesky Cleveland Guardians. A series victory in Arlington mixed with a singule win against the Astros created a 2 1/2-game division lead for the Good Guys. This, helped by the fact that Cleveland has now lost five in a row, created some much-needed breathing room as the club stares down the Yankees and the Rays this upcoming week.

After taking two of three in Arlington against the Rangers, I can confidently say the White Sox have figured out how to win on the road. They have not dropped an away series since they were swept in Detroit in June. The club landed in Texas and immediately made a statement.

For the majority of the series opener, it was tight. The White Sox came up to bat in the top of the ninth inning and flipped the script, scoring five runs and doubling the night’s total. There was not a single home run hit to get to the double-digit scoring output. Instead, it was a night full of four doubles. Miguel Vargas led the way with two RBI doubles, the first getting the White Sox on the scoreboard and the second starting the ninth-inning rally.

The game was made even sweeter because Jacob deGrom was on the mound, and even though he may be ancient for a MLB pitcher, he still is throwing 97 mph. The Texas starter kept Chicago in check for four innings but did not make it out of the fifth, pulled with two outs after giving up a bases-clearing double to Andrew Benintendi. It was a bullpen day of sorts for the White Sox: Erick Fedde made it through four innings, giving up two runs, walking none and striking out six. The only blemish for the bullpen was a solo home run given up by Seranthony Domínguez to old friend Jake Burger.

Wins are sweet, but there was a bitter side to this one: Kyle Teel sprained his ankle and is going to be out for 6-12 weeks. It appears the front office might now need to be on the lookout for a veteran catcher on the trade market. It was being talked about this week that the solution for many catcher-needy teams could be Shea Langeliers, but he is now out for what looks like the remainder of the season with a torn meniscus. It is time for Chris Getz to get creative.

Tuesday was a completely different story for the pitching staff. It was like the clubs switched roles for the evening. Noah Schultz’s ERA continues to balloon, making its way past six after giving up five runs on 11 hits. The lefty was pulled after only 3 2/3 innings, and the bullpen could not keep the game within reach. Trevor Richards gave up two runs in his two-thirds of an inning and Tyler Schweitzer couldn’t keep his hot streak going, giving up three earned runs over 2 2/3 innings. The only pitcher in the entire game not to give up a run? Luisangel Acuña.

All was forgiven on Wednesday, when the team bounced back and took the series with a 4-2 win. The Rangers had a planned bullpen day, starting with former friend Tyler Alexander and ending with Jacob Latz. The left-handed opener gave up an RBI single to Chase Meidroth for the first run of the game and his only run given up in two innings of work.

Cal Quantrill, who you might remember from his few seasons with Cleveland, took the bulk innings and the loss, giving up two runs on a pair of RBI singles to Meidroth and Benintendi. The fourth and final run for Chicago was surrendered by Jakob Junis. There was a theme for this game, and that was singles. Benintendi picked up his second RBI of the day to give the pitching more room to work with. It was room they needed after Anthony Kay gave up two runs over five innings. The elite portion of the bullpen (Jordan Hicks!) was deployed to keep the game where it was. Hicks, along with Grant Taylor and Bryan Hudson, kept the Rangers quiet and secured the victory.

Everything is bigger in Texas, but they do say if you go big you have to go home. That is exactly where the White Sox headed to take on the weaker of the two teams from the Lone Star State. I say weaker, but as you will quickly discover, looks can be deceiving. In what should have been at least two victories, the team dropped both Friday and Saturday’s matchups to the Astros.

Friday’s game was very much in reach. The squad scored three runs in the first inning to take an early lead and give Davis Martin some run support. They scored their runs the old fashioned way: a sacrifice fly, RBI single, and hit-by-pitch. In the fifth inning, Chicago tacked on two more thanks to a wild pitch and a Meidroth double. Then the wheels fell off.

Martin entered the fifth inning with the best intentions, but rather than be well on his way to his 10th win of the season, he loaded the bases and allowed a run on a LaMonte Wade Jr. single to right field. Will Venable saw enough after 88 pitches, and brought in Hudson to get a handle on things. He did not. The lefty let things get out of control in his two-thirds of an inning pitched, giving up a bases-clearing double to score the runners Martin was responsible for. Before he turned over the bases loaded with two outs to Domínguez, Hudson gave up a two-run shot to Cam Smith. This homer officially blew the lead for the White Sox and earned Hudson the loss. Dominguez Domínguez gave up no runs in his outing, but he allowed the hits that scored the last two runs of the inning. This was a game best forgotten.

Sean Burke had an incredible outing on Saturday, the type of outing that warrants a win. The righthander threw a quality start, going six innings, giving up three runs, and striking out 10. It was an unfortunate error in right field that put the Astros well on the scoreboard: Issac Paredes singled to Braden Montgomery but instead of fielding it cleanly and only allowing one run, Braden didn’t have his body in front of the ball and it took a hop over his glove. This allowed Houston to clear the bases and take a 3-0 lead.

Paredes singled again in the eighth inning, Braden fielding it cleanly this time, to pick up his third RBI of the game and Houston’s fourth run. The lone run for Chicago was scored in the bottom of the ninth, when Colson Montgomery helped his team avoid being shut out for the second time in the week by driving in Vargas on a single to right.

The good news is, the Guardians lost every night as well, so no lead was lost in the division race. And Sunday was yet another opportunity to take advantage of the Cleveland skid. It was Munetaka Murakami bobblehead day at the ballpark, and Mune’s parents were in town (they even threw out the first pitch). Thankfully, the first baseman put on a show for his parents.

The Pale Hose scored a massive 12 runs in the series finale, and Murakami was responsible for driving in half of them. There were five home runs hit by the ballclub this week — all hit on Sunday. Meidroth, Vargas, and Junior Perez each homered in the game, but Mune had to be special and hit two dingers. His shot in the bottom of the first inning was his first home run since returning from the IL:

It also gave the team its first lead of the day. The second traveled nearly 400 feet and made it a dozen in the scorecard. As if two home runs weren’t enough, he also knocked in a run on a ground out in the third and a pair of runs on a single in the bottom of the seventh. His total of six RBIs were the most he’s had in his young major league career. Fingers crossed that this got the rust off the home run machine:

When all is said and done, the White Sox had a .500 week and grew their lead in the AL Central. When you put it like that, it doesn’t seem terrible, but when you dig a little deeper the club has some clear weaknesses. Chicago has a need for pitching, starters and relief alike. The pitching staff ranks 11th in the league in team ERA so far this season. Three of those teams are still worse than .500. The bullpen has also been presented with 48 save opportunities and only converted 28 of those. There is a lack of consistency, and an arm or two might help to mend the cracks that have shown.

The trade deadline is coming up, and how teams perform in the next week is going to say a lot about who is buying and who is selling. It is also going to say a lot about what kind of talent Chicago is going to go after. And the games heading into the deadline will be a challenge, as the Yankees are in town for a four-game set followed by a trip to Florida to play the AL-leading Rays.

The latest SB Nation reacts poll response warmed my heart. It shows a wisdom that sometimes eludes fans.

Admittedly, the poll question is asking for a prediction rather than an opinion, but most people tend to conflate the two; because, “Do you think the Giants should sign Bryce Eldridge to an extension this year?“ means something radically different.

You can bet that respondents considered the Giants’ history in engaging in such behavior along with the upcoming lockout that has been planned by the owners since (probably) signing the last CBA. And then there’s the simple matter of whether or not an extension is warranted at this time.

Yes, this year is sort of an outlier in the frequency with which teams have extended their pre-arbitration players or even players before they’ve made their MLB debut — some other recent examples: the Brewers with Luis Lara, Cooper Pratt, and Jackson Chourio; the Mariners with Colt Emerson, the Tigers with Colt Keith, etc. — because it’s also not as though there is talented that has necessarily warranted such financial commitments.

With Eldridge, we’re talking about a slugging first baseman/designated hitter, the sort of hitter that is far more common than the ones who’ve been getting extended lately. No, Eldridge isn’t likely to be demoted anytime soon, and a 21-year old slashing .259/.359/.459 in 256 plate appearances is impressive enough, but his importance to the Giants is simply in having an impact hitter come up through their farm system and provide “surplus value” (performance vs. pay). He’s not (yet) hitting like 21-year old Juan Soto (.351/.490/.695) — which, yeah, by the time he does start hitting like that he’ll be less likely to want to sign an extension.

Thing is, Eldridge’s ceiling is unclear. Again, he’s a revelation for the Giants. He’s the type of hitter the Giants have been searching for and he’s likely to be a significant figure going forward, but is he a generational talent within the context of the sport itself? It’s really tough to compare him to these recent extensions and not come off like a critique to the point of insult. Let’s see if we can find a pattern here:

• Jacob Wilson, A’s: 7 years, $70 million — shortstop
• JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals: 8 years, $112.5 million — shortstop
• Cooper Pratt, Brewers: 8 years, $50.75 million — shortstop
• Colt Emerson, Mariners: 8 years, $95 million — shortstop (and some third base)
• Konnor Griffin, Pirates: 9 years, $140 million — shortstop
• Kevin McGonigle, Tigers: 8 years, $150 million — shortstop (and third base)

So, that should be definitive. There’s a very good reason why front offices opened up the pocket book. These up the middle defenders with above average hit and power tools are extremely valuable.

I can only think of a few recent extensions for non-shortstops, and while they don’t reflect the opposite end of the spectrum, they do present as cases that would give Zack & Buster pause.

• Lawrence Butler, A’s: 7 years, $65.5 million — outfield
• Jackson Chourio, Brewers: 8 years, $82 million — outfield
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta: 8 years, $100 million — outfield

Butler was 23 when he signed his deal and coming off of .262/.317/.490 in 451 plate appearances with some fantastic defense in right field. The Athletics were probably motivated more by their financial restraints than by “look at this generational talent blossoming before us,” but that’s more or less where Bryce Eldridge falls on the player performance scale. Butler was sub-average last year and one of the worst players in the sport this year (age-25).

Chourio has been good. Around 20% better than the league average as a hitter and a good defender in a corner outfield position. Another not-generational talent, but who is playing well enough that the Brewers have locked in a quality contributor for below the market rates for similar performance.

Acuna Jr. was on a Hall of Fame track as recently as 2023, but in the years since the extension, he’s been injured a lot and his power has diminished quite a lot. In his first 4 seasons, ages 20-23: a .268 ISO or .549 slug. In the subsequent 5 seasons, ages 24-28: a .200 ISO or .492 slug.

Yes, Atlanta is absolutely doing that deal 12 times out of 10, but would 2019 Alex Anthopoulos consider a similar deal for 2026 Bryce Eldridge? Probably not.

Finally, there’s this example that the Giants are probably thinking about, if they even pondered an Eldridge extension at all:

• Jonathan Singleton, Astros: 5 years, $10 million (with club options that could increase it to $35 million) — first baseman

That’s about $49 million in today’s dollars through simple dollar inflation, but it doesn’t factor in MLB’s market inflation over the past 12 years. Still, you can imagine senior advisor Bobby Evans remembering that 2014 deal and relaying to Posey the massive negative reaction it got from Evans & Sabean & then-Giants ownership at the time. Eldridge and Singleton’s profiles aren’t remotely comparable beyond left-handed hitting first baseman, but Singleton was more of an on base guy with doubles power. Still, because a bunch of oldheads are advising the Giants, I’m sure the fact that he hit just .171/.290/.331 in the first two seasons of the deal before the Astros moved on from him is a data point in the cost-benefit analysis.

And I think Giants fans know their organization enough to recognize that they’re less likely to take financial risks on younger players — for better or worse — so, that might be some of the wisdom behind the response here. But after the season? I wonder if the question was interpreted as “in-season” versus “off-season.” How many fans might wager on a November extension?

My personal opinion is that they should’ve signed him to an extension if he’d hit 20 home runs by now. But it was pretty clear to me early on that he was going to need at least this season to figure out major league pitching. So, given that, he looks like he’s on a pretty typical career trajectory, and for a tall power hitter who will either play first base or DH, the long-term value of a player like that is tricky to calculate and the team is better off going year to year to see if he can hit his way into forcing them to make a big commitment. I don’t think Juan Soto’s $31 million arbitration number could be a comp just given the defensive differences, and by the time Eldridge reaches his final year of arbitration, who even knows what arbitration will look like or what $31 million means.

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A fresh week is in front of us as we look to back a few players and fade another on this nearly full Monday slate.

Here are my three favorite MLB player props for July 27.

Best MLB player props today

Max Scherzer Over 2.5 earned runs (-114)

I'm fading old man Max Scherzer this evening in my MLB picks as he draws one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball.

The Toronto Blue Jays veteran righty owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box for today's slate and will face a lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters and one additional strong-rated bat.

The Washington Nationals have been on an absolute tear over their last 21 games, posting a 151 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .244 ISO, and .889 OPS.

Meanwhile, Scherzer has looked nothing like himself over his last five starts, posting a 13.50 ERA, 5.82 xERA, and 2.06 WHIP.

As difficult as it is to fade a future Hall of Famer, this is the spot to do it. The Nationals lead all of baseball in first five-inning scoring, averaging 3.13 runs over that span.

I'd play this prop down to -125.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NATS, Sportnet

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-111)

It is a great day to fade St. Louis Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore. The southpaw enters Monday with the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box, where he grades poorly in matchup ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground ball rate.

Two Chicago Cubs stood out to me in this matchup, starting with leadoff hitter Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is coming off a strong performance on Sunday. He also carries an elite rating tonight while covering nearly 100% of Liberatore's arsenal.

Over his last 60 at-bats against southpaws, Crow-Armstrong owns a .543 SLG, .993 OPS, .434 wOBA, and .260 ISO.

Liberatore has also struggled against left-handed hitters, especially at home, where they are batting .321 with a .509 SLG and .357 wOBA against him.

With temperatures expected to climb into the triple digits tonight, the conditions should heavily favor the hitters. I think there will be plenty of offense, with the ball carrying well in St. Louis.

I'd play this to -125.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, CARD

Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (-109)

The other bat I want to back in this matchup is Seiya Suzuki, who has been crushing left-handed pitching all season.

Over his last 60 at-bats against southpaws, the Cubs slugger owns a 46.1% hard hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and 74.4% elevation rate. He has also posted a 26.3% HR/FB rate, .680 SLG, and 1.097 OPS.

Against right-handed hitters, Liberatore has allowed a 42.5% hard hit rate and 72.5% elevation rate over the last 60 hitters he has faced. Those righties have also produced a .337 xBA, .501 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA during that span.

With the heat expected in St. Louis and the way both Suzuki and PCA have been swinging the bat, I think at least one of them has a big night at the plate.

I'd play this down to -125 as well.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, CARD

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Cincinnati Reds infielder/outfielder Spencer Steer has seen his name fly all over trade rumor boards so far this July, and for good reason. He’s incredibly versatile defensively, he’s hit over 20 homers for three straight seasons, he once swiped 25 bags in a year, and he’s mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.062 OPS so far in 2026, all while playing for a club in last place that’s barreling towards the deadline with intentions of selling off pieces.

Teams like the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Yankees were all rumored to be interested in Steer’s services, which would come with a bonus of two additional years of team control. And when those big names (with big urgency) come circling, the idea of striking while the iron is hot in regards to Steer had become one of Cincinnati’s biggest trade deadline decisions in years.

Steer helped the Reds make that decision a lot easier on Sunday in St. Louis, unfortunately. He fouled off a pitch with an awkward swing and immediately left the game with wrist pain. On Monday, Cincinnati placed him on the 10-day IL with ESPN’s Buster Olney concurrently reporting that Steer ‘will miss signficant time’ with it.

Spencer Steer, one of the coveted right-handed hitters in this year's trade market, is going on the injured list today after suffering a hand/wrist injury yesterday, and will miss significant time.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 27, 2026

The Reds, to their credit, noted that it’s a ‘wrist sprain’ and not a hamate break (or one of the litany of other ‘breaks’ that could happen when a wrist hurts), but that still muddies the timeframe for how long he’ll be out. Cincinnati also noted that Ivan Johnson has been recalled to the active roster in Steer’s stead.

The #Reds today recalled from Triple-A Louisville IF/OF Ivan Johnson and placed on the 10-day injured list IF/OF Spencer Steer (right wrist sprain). pic.twitter.com/anqkeemt1w

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 27, 2026

It has truly seemed as if the 2026 season was destined to be undone by something, anything any time the Reds managed to cobble together momentum. Ace Hunter Greene was shut down for three months in spring training as he needed cleanup surgery in his elbow. Blisters befell first Brady Singer and then Nick Lodolo, twice. Elly De La Cruz hit the shelf for nearly a month, closer Emilio Pagan missed two, and even the indominable Eugenio Suarez was sent to the shelf for a month with an oblique strain. That’s before we mention the decimation to the bullpen that still has Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft claimed after hitting pause on the seasons of Caleb Ferguson and Pierce Johnson first.

Every team deals with injuries, yes. This Reds club, though, has been simply smashed with them, so much so that I failed to originally recall Jose Trevino, Matt McLain, and even Ke’Bryan Hayes being out for extended absences.

Now, it’s Steer’s turn, and how the Reds recover remains to be seen. We don’t know if they were ever truly going to consider trading him, first, and we also don’t know how their 6-3 start to the season’s second half changed their tune on trading away anyone else. What they do get to see now, though, is how much different Terry Francona’s in-game decisions will be without Steer around, as the latter’s versatility unlocked pretty much any decision Tito wanted to make heretofore.

Coming off a 15-game winning streak, an 8-2 home stand, 6 series victories in a row, and a 2-1 series win against the Blue Jays to finish that homestand, the Red Sox are riding high. The Sacramento Athletics, one of the teams the Sox needed to pass a few weeks ago, are now 9.0 games back in the Wild Card chase. The Sox hold the second of three AL Wild Cards right now. Their FanGraphs playoff odds are up to nearly 70%.

It’s time for Late Night Baseball, with all four games against the A’s set for 9:40 starts. Don’t worry, next Sunday against the Dodgers the Sox return to a 7:20 first pitch.

The Sox start things off Payton Tolle. Mass Pike wasn’t at his best the last time out, yielding 4 runs in 5.2 innings, but his offense picked him up in a 6-5 victory. 9 Ks and 1 walk is nothing to sneeze at either. He’ll miss his friend. But you can still revel in these two being best buds:

The A’s send Jack Perkins in the first game. A righty form Kokomo, Indiana, where they take it slow, he has a career ERA of 5.77 and a season mark of 6.75. Perkins started the season in the bullpen, was moved to the rotation in June, and the A’s have lost all but one of his starts. The win against the Brewers was a 4.0 inning, 3-run affair which wasn’t exactly sharp. He hasn’t gone more than 5.0 innings or tossed more than 90 pitches this season. It’s a good time to have a strong night for the bats.

Jake Bennett is looking to extend his team (and personal) winning streak to 7. An out away from a quality start, Bennett held the O’s to just 3 runs last time. He’ll face one of two Gages in the majors. Gage Jump is a 23-year-old southpaw who is 11 starts into his MLB career. The A’s have lost his last 6 starts and it’s not hard to see why with runs allowed of 0,5,6,1,4, and 6 and just one start longer than 4.2 innings. Over that time his ERA/FIP has been 8.31/6.57. Over his first 5 starts things looked better: 2.04 ERA, 2.14 FIP.

Patrick Sandoval held the Blue Jays scoreless for 4.2 innings. Since he was activated he’s struck out 13 in 14 innings with 4 walks and 5 hits. He was pushed to 84 pitches the last time out which might be about all the Sox expect from him given the long layoff. The A’s have scored more runs than the Red Sox but are still a below-average offense. Toronto is dead last in runs but his other starts against the White Sox and Rays were against above-average run scoring teams. Jacob Lopez is a lefty who has really struggles this season. While his most recent start against the Twins was solid – 5.0 innings, 0 runs – he’s allowed runs is all but two outings of his 16 games this year (one in relief).

The final game is Sonny Gray’s chance to bounce back. And it comes against an old team! Gray has been solid as can be for Boston this season but had an off day on Saturday against Toronto. The Jays hit him (relatively) hard by his own standards in June as well. The A’s still haven’t announced who will pitch on Thursday. Allowing the second most runs per game, above only the Rockies, it probably won’t be a new ace.

New second baseman (we assume) Curtis Mead will be suited up for the Red Sox!

Catcher Shea Langeliers is out with a torn meniscus, probably for the season, which is a break facing the A’s.

Nick Kurtz is hitting .263/.401/.491 with 20 homers.

The Jeff McNeil bounce-back didn’t happen.

Tyler Soderstrom has been good: .248/.346/.470.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, July 27: Payton Tolle (3.31 ERA / 3.24 FIP) vs. Jack Perkins (6.75 ERA /4.45 FIP)

Tuesday, July 28: Jake Bennett (2.58 ERA / 3.12 FIP) vs. Gage Jump (4.42 ERA / 3.83 FIP)

Wednesday, July 29: Patrick Sandoval (3.21 ERA / 3.04 FIP) vs. Jacob Lopez (6.12 ERA / 5.67 FIP)

Thursday, July 30: Sonny Gray (2.78 ERA / 3.70FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA / — FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday, July 27: 9:40 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday, July 28: 9:40 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, July 29: 9:40 PM ET on NESN

Thursday, July 30: 9:40 PM ET on NESN

Two years ago, Brenton Doyle was playing out of his mind.

Outside of being in the middle of his second straight Golden Glove campaign, the Rockies center fielder was about to win National League Player of the Month honors for July. He hit .333/.394/.800 with an OPS of 1.194 with 11 home runs, 27 RBI, 15 runs scored, seven doubles, two stolen bases and one triple in 25 games.

He hasn’t had a month like that since.

This season, Doyle has only played in 43 games due to oblique and groin injuries. He went from the dream center fielder with power to a player in an offensive drought in 2025 to an absent player in 2026.

In the 128 games he’s played from Aug. 1 to May 20, Doyle has combined to hit 21 homers. The year-to-year difference has been rough to witness. In 2024, Doyle, the Rockies fourth-round draft pick from 2019, hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 homers and 72 RBIs with 30 stolen bases in 149 games. Last season, Doyle hit.233/.274/.376 with 15 homers and 57 RBIs with 18 stolen bases in 138 games thanks to a surge at the end of the season.

This season, instead of picking up where he left off in 2025, the downward trend has persisted. In 43 games, Doyle hit .207/.279/.270 with one homer and four RBIs with nine stolen bases. His speed and potential, in the field and at the plate, are undeniable. He remains a valuable player who still could benefit from more time with a new coaching staff and could regain his 2024 form if healthy.

First put on the IL with an oblique strain, Doyle then suffered a groin injury while rehabbing. Doyle is now in his second rehab stint with Triple-A Albuquerque and looking good. It’s a small sample size, but Doyle has gone 2-for-7 with two walks, one RBI and one strikeout in two games (July 23 and 25).

So far, he’s only slotted in the lineup as a DH, so he’ll need more time to test out his body in the outfield before he can rejoin the Rockies. But what happens when Doyle’s rehab assignment is complete and he’s ready to play in the big leagues?

He’ll rejoin a crowded outfield — one that’s been the subject of lots of trade speculation — but one that is also now home to promising rookie Cole Carrigg. The 24-year-old has proven to be a spark at the plate and a solid fielder with range and a powerful arm. He’s also versatile, able to play the rest of the outfield, as well as most of the infield.

Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy has also filled in nicely in the outfield with a knack for making diving plays and the ability to get on base — sometimes all the way around — as seen by his two inside-the-park home runs. With Mickey Moniak, Troy Johnson and Tyler Freeman also in the outfield — where Willi Castro can also play — there are too many outfielders and not enough spaces.

This is not a new problem. It’s just multiplied with offseason acquisitions while prospects, from Jordan Beck to Zac Veen, remain in farm system purgatory with a depth chart that can’t be infiltrated unless someone is traded or the Rockies can expand their roster on Sept. 1.

Doyle still has more to prove in his rehab assignment, but if he continues to play well, the Rockies will have to start making some choices, especially since he could return around the time of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

July has nearly all but come and gone, and the Major League Baseball Trade Deadline sits exactly one week away. It’s still a little odd to me personally to see it land on August 3rd, but that’s what the league decided before the beginning of 2026, so that’s just how it is.

Honestly, in a muddled season like 2026 to date, it’s probably for the best to give teams as much time as possible to determine if they think they’re true contenders or pretenders. The league’s respective Wild Card races are flush with mediocrity and even some division leaders are barely above .500. Do not take this for throwing stones in a glass house, however; the Yankees are certainly lacking in certain areas of their team and most desperately need captain Aaron Judge to return to health by September 1st at the absolute earliest.

In the meantime, the Yankees at least have another week to consider the best possible external options to improve their roster. It’s a tricky game, and as always, it takes two to tango. Even if you want your team to get Player X and they put forth the public’s consensus best offer, they’re not a lock to land him. The selling club is well within its rights to decline if their own internal valuations have a different opinion.

The Yankees will look to make a move, but what position should be their greatest priority? This was the topic of last week’s Reacts survey. The results are below.*

*Keep in mind that this poll ran before news broke of rumored catching addition Shea Langeliers’ possible season-ending injury and Cody Bellinger’s hamstring strain.

Yankees fans are fairly at the limit with the current catching plans. Despite a homer over the weekend, Austin Wells has been a colossal disappointment this year. Yankees catchers have combined for a .185/.268/.283 triple slash in 2026, which FanGraphs rates as a 56 wrC+, the third-worst mark in baseball. There desperately needs to be some improvement there, hence the overwhelming 74-percent majority voting for “catcher” in this survey. Colorado’s Hunter Goodman, Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers, and Cincinnati’s Tyler Stephenson are all possible options who we’ve profiled as possible trade targets.

Of course, it’s not as though fans are solely focused on the men behind the plate. A common response to the Feed poll was that there were numerous areas to improve.

One possible counterpoint was raised by ConorGallogly, who noted that there was reason to be optimistic about some degree of a Wells rebound. Through his first three seasons in the majors (937 plate appearances), he was a 100 wRC+ hitter. Could he really be a true-talent 55 wRC+ now? Some uncertainty about that is understandable. And the Yankees’ left side of the infield has been a weakness with Anthony Volpe, José Caballero, Ryan McMahon, and Amed Rosario all leaving plenty to be desired at shortstop and third base.

The last sentence of the comment, however? That is also true. Wells undoubtedly has “just been so bad.”

Another point raised was that general manager Brian Cashman could try to improve a relative strength and add a starting pitcher. At the very least, it’s hard not to at least consider a package for two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, who would be the best name on the market if the disappointing Tigers made him available.

Imagine Skubal with Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, and Max Fried in a playoff rotation? Holy moly. Again, it’s probably a pipe dream, but why not dream big?

Another pitcher who might be out of reach but still fascinating is elite Padres closer Mason Miller, who could be on the market for the second year in a row. David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, Brett Headrick, and even Paul Blackburn have provided some great innings of late relief, but there’s certainly a sentiment that the Yankees could use at least one more reliable reliever to make the middle relief more palatable. And it doesn’t have to be an addition who slots in there; instead, it could be a jewel like Miller, who pushes everyone down the pecking order.

Someone like Miller’s teammate Adrian Morejon might be more likely, though.

We’ll see what the Yankees end up doing. And stay tuned for the next Reacts survey, when we’ll delve into the Yankees’ catching options on the market! I agree that some move there is most likely (and the greatest need).

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These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.

The Braves are having fun. Mostly. Probably. They have a top five-ish record in the league both after the All-Star Break, and in July as a whole. No team has scored more runs in July, even though the Braves are just 15th in xwOBA for the month. They haven’t lost a series since the All-Star Break, including exorcising a very specific demon by beating the Padres in a series at home — something they hadn’t achieved since 2018. Now, fresh off a series win after a trio of close, wacky games in Baltimore, they’re off to New York in search of more Ws.

And, as fate has inevitably contorted itself, I have coverage of another Martin Perez start. To be very clear: this was not my original assignment; I switched from tomorrow to today to help scheduling stuff. No, I did not check who was pitching for the Braves. But I think I already knew. Much like Perez’ style of pitching, we are all just marionettes on the erratically-rattled strings of the universe.

Anyway, Martin Perez! He’s had his ups and his downs. He was in the middle of a rough stretch when he was hit on the forearm by a comebacker, and had to miss some time on the Injured List. He came back last week and had a very strange outing against the Padres: four innings, four walks, three strikeouts, and a 1-0 lead when he departed. (The Braves eventually won, 7-6.) It was his fourth start in a row with very poor peripherals, but the defense and the vagaries of his own pitching style and the universe at large bailed him out from suffering any damage in the runs ledger.

On the season, Perez has a 79 ERA-, 107 FIP-, and 101 xFIP- in 85 2/3 innings, which… yeah. Sometimes not everything is undeservedly bad. Sometimes, things are undeservedly good. Hurrah.

As for the Mets, well, they’re kind of just depressing. At 44-62, they have MLB’s third-worst record. They’re 8-12 in July, and recently announced that nearly everyone on their roster is available in trade, though they haven’t actually started moving guys yet. It’s been a tough season in Queens for many reasons, though a big one is a huge offensive xwOBA underperformance that’s made a decent set of inputs translate into some of the league’s worst outputs. In addition, the Mets’ lack of defensive prowess has made their run prevention more of a problem than it’s needed to be.

On the flip side, 24-year-old Zac Thornton, tonight’s scheduled starter, has been a nice story so far in four starts. He wasn’t pitching all that well in the minors before being called up, and had a rough landing in his MLB debut, but then dominated the Phillies in his second try… though the Mets still lost that game, 2-1. He’s then had a couple of weirder outings — zero runs tallied to him (hi, Martin Perez!), but just a 7/3 K/BB ratio in 13 innings. He hasn’t allowed a homer since his debut, so that’s why his line is 47/71/99 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). The Mets could use some undeservedly good stuff, too, after how their season has gone.

As a pitcher, Thornton is definitely an odd duck. He’s a cutter-slider-thing-first lefty who generates good “rise” with his not-thrown-that-hard fastballs. He also throws a sweeper that’s much slower than his cutter thing. His command’s been kind of rough, but it’s an in-the-zone rough, so he’s not walking the world, and the ability to use his four-seamer and sweeper as a change-of-pace has helped him survive.

Ronald Acuña Jr. will apparently be back for this game, so that might be more exciting than everything else put together.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Monday, July 27, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY

TV/Streaming: BravesVision

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

Monday, July 27, 2026, 1:35 PM CDT (105.3 The Fan / Rangers Sports Network)

The Shed

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Kumar Rocker

Go Rangers!

On Sunday the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame were inducted in Cooperstown, New York. It’s a celebration of a baseball career that made its mark well beyond the impact a player had on an individual team. There are 354 members of the Hall of Fame, including just 281 players. This year’s class of players included Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent.

Kent spent most of his career in the National League, playing for the Mets, Giants, Dodgers and the Houston Astros (back when they were in the Cubs’ division). He had 264 plate appearances against the Cubs, slashing .267/.330/.446 with 10 home runs against Chicago’s NL team. It’s a solid, if unremarkable line. His wRC+ of 101 against the Cubs is almost exactly league average. A worthy adversary, for sure, but not the bod

But yesterday, as Kent was inducted into the Hall of Fame, he invoked Ryne Sandberg, one of the greatest Cubs of all time, as a key influence on him as a second baseman:

"I never had a chance to meet Ryne, but I watched him play every day because I wanted to be like him."

Jeff Kent credits the late Ryne Sandberg for setting the standard for generations of second basemen 💙 pic.twitter.com/E4cZOs6pPw

— MLB (@MLB) July 26, 2026

Kent was choked up as he mentioned the Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman who passed away last year. I was choked up as he noted that Ryne Sandberg not only set the standard for a generation of second basemen, but played with “respect, toughness and a quiet fire.” It made me flash back to Sandberg’s Hall of Fame induction speech, which revolves around the theme of what it means to respect the game.

It was a beautiful day to celebrate the long legacy of baseball, and the newest members of baseball’s most exclusive fraternity. Kent’s remarks were a fitting tribute to the man who set the standard for Cubs fans as well.