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I have the sense that this will be a wildly (or perhaps mildly?) unpopular take, but I like the Jake Bauers deal.

I was surprised to hear it happened but that may have had more to do with seeing any extensive activity right now, given the unknowns of the impending lockout. It may also have been disbelief at seeing the Red Sox make a quick move; we all know how they like to watch and wait during the offseason.

Let’s look at the objections to the signing and take them on, one by one.

Objections

Bauers only had one good year

Until recently, he had a pretty unimpressive stat sheet: playing for five teams in eight years, never hitting higher than .235 in any season, or hitting more than 12 home runs, or batting in more than 48 runs prior to 2026. His strikeout rate, always elevated, nearly reached 35% in 2023 and 2024. In fact, he planned to retire, only coming back to the sport due to the need for health insurance.

He started turning things around with a strong September in 2025. His career year, the outlier, was 2026, when his slash line was .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and he was named the MVP of the NLCS. He was a big contributor to the Brewers winning the World Series.

So was 2026 a fluke? Time will tell but we can say, despite his struggles, that he has some solid underlying metrics.

• He’s always been disciplined at the plate, with a career walk rate of 12.64%
• He wasn’t just lucky in 2026—his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .371 is in the 93rd percentile and backs up his production (.389 OBP / .873 OPS)
• Since 2023, he’s had an excellent barrel rate, that beautiful combination of exit velocity and launch angle

The Sox already have a first baseman

They have a first baseman, Willson Contreras, who could use a backup. The Sox have essentially had a fragile ecosystem at first base for several years now. Don’t get me started on poor Triston Casas.

The Sox already have a DH

The hell they do.

Bauers is a poor fielder

Well, he was acquired to be the designated hitter, so his fielding doesn’t bother me too much. He’ll serve as a backup to Contreras at first.

He does play multiple positions (not necessarily well) but that works with the overall philosophy of having players who can slot in and give guys time off, or be available in case of injury.

What about Triston Casas?

God bless him. I love the guy, I’ve written about him many times, and he’ll probably always be The One Who Got Away for me. I wish it had turned out differently. I loved him as a player and an individual but we can’t count on him at this point because of his health. Breslow said he’s “optimistic” Casas will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic but there’s no date for that since he’s still not healthy enough. Breslow did the right thing by not taking him into account as an option for first base, at least for now. We’ll see what happens with him (and I wish him all the best).

Bauer’s age, or the contract’s age…something won’t age well

Can we give up on this argument, please? The very financial structure of the sport is predicated on a time-based model; young players are typically cheaper players, and as players bank more time in their career, the more they can expect to earn (up to a certain point in time). Once players arrive at the point in their career when they can truly cash in on this system with a lucrative multiyear contract, they are typically “in their prime.” That implies they are at or near their peak. Logically, no peak lasts indefinitely. In evaluating the performance of professional athletes, when does “decline” start and how steep will it be? The ageing process is full of unknowns, as is much of life. Multiyear contracts given out to mid-career players are part of doing business in baseball. Trying to sit that one out would mean passing on all the free agents and that’s not a world I want to live in.

This brings me to the main objection.

It’s a risk

Dan said it; others including Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated have said it. I don’t mean to sound flip, but what isn’t a risk? Until we’ve played the games and toted up the stats at the completion of a season, everything is an unknown; nothing is guaranteed. Risk, schmisk.

I would argue that the opposite of taking a risk is doing nothing. Haven’t we had enough of that? I have.

This is the first significant signing of 2026 free agency. It’s also notable that the Red Sox were involved in the very first trade of the 2026 offseason, when they sent Nate Eaton to the Athletics, the day after the World Series (the first eligible day). For several years now, fans have begged the front office to do something.

This is what doing something looks like.

It’s also not a pivot move, à lasigning Ranger Suárez in the wake of the Alex Bregman fiasco late in the 2025 offseason. This time, Breslow moved decisively and early. The Red Sox weren’t beat out by a more competitive bid and won’t be Interest Kings this year. We can confidently say that this is the move Craig Breslow wanted to make.

As with any move, whether in baseball or in life, it may turn out to have been the wrong one. We won’t know that for a long time.

But there’s something to be said for making the first move. I suspect it’s the first hand of several Breslow will play. It may even be the forcing move for finally addressing the no-longer-tenable situation in the outfield, since Bauers can play the corner positions in a pinch. It may also mean moving on from Masataka Yoshida. Breslow probably should have ironed out these sticking points in the roster already but I believe he’s going to do it now. One piece at a time is a good way to begin. Alex Speier has already reported that Duran is being shopped hard and presumably Breslow has lots of other balls currently in the air, a few of which will come to fruition.

As I said when Breslow traded for Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are making significant moves and I’m on board. I find it a breath of fresh air. Let’s go.

We’ve had a relatively busy last few days, with Shohei Ohtani finishing second in National League MVP voting and climbing up the all-time award share leaderboard, Yoshinobu Yamamoto voted fourth place for the NL Cy Young Award, and old friend Evan Phillips joining the Atlanta Braves bullpen for three years, $35 million, outpacing several contract projections.

The Dodgers this week also hired Pedro Guerrero as a hitting coach, replacing the departing Aaron Bates on the major league staff. Guerrero has coached the last nine years in the majors, and before that was a minor league player and coach in the Dodgers system.

Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic talked to Guerrero and others about the new hire, including Miami Marlins manager Clayton McCullough, the Dodgers former first base coach and previous minor league coordinator:

“(He can) meet guys where they are,” McCullough said. “He is a good listener. That’s where he really does his best work. Some of those conversations, either in the cage during the day, with just trying to have a guy be in the best spot mentally that he can be for that given day. Then in the game, not letting some of the anxiety or some of the stress (pile up) for a player, he helps alleviate a lot of that.”

Links

Sam Miller at his Pebble Hunting newsletter wrote about various ways the Dodgers have been beatable, and along the way detailed the various ways baseball is essentially impossible to guarantee a particular outcome.

What has become an annual treat is Davy Andrews at FanGraphs perusing various baseball news items to chronicle various instances of teams saying essentially “we tried” as a way to placate an unfulfilled acquisition. This offseason’s first such instance appeared to come this week.

Today’s Reflections

Good morning, everyone.

I appreciate your reading.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

The 2026 PCA MVP tribute section:

• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): Coronation: Pete Crow-Armstrong Wins 2026 National League MVP Award. “There was no drama here. That doesn’t make the moment less sweet or the honoree less deserving. After one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, Pete Crow-Armstrong was officially crowned the best player in baseball Thursday night.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Pete Crow-Armstrong is the UNANIMOUS 2026 National League Most Valuable Player. “The Most Valuable Player Award is still the capstone. You cannot have a season like Pete Crow-Armstrong had and not receive the MVP award to bring it all together.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Pete Crow-Armstrong Voted Unanimous NL MVP. “This is just the latest accolade for PCA, who had already collected Gold and Platinum Gloves, All-MLB First Team, and the NL Hank Aaron Award as the league’s most outstanding offensive player.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong wins NL MVP to cap all-time season of homers, stolen bases and defensive excellence. “Crow-Armstrong was a unanimous selection, becoming the 12th player to win an MVP award as a Cub.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Pete Crow-Armstrong caps historic season for Chicago Cubs with unanimous NL MVP: ‘I really know there’s more’. “Crow-Armstrong’s setup changes, combined with a sudden commitment in May to make better swing decisions and stop chasing out of the zone, fueled the best offensive performance in the National League and culminated in his being named Most Valuable Player.”

Free Agency/Trade — Pitching

• Doug Schwamb (Chicago Cubs On SI): One Cubs Free Agent Signing That Still Makes Too Much Sense. “The Chicago Cubs might as well pair Craig Counsell with his old friend this winter.”
• Sahadev Sharma (The Athletic {$}): Cubs, focused on pitching this offseason, show interest in free agent Trevor Rogers: Sources. “The Chicago Cubs entered this week’s general managers’ meetings with a clear priority: pitching. As the offseason unfolds, names are starting to emerge.“
• Jason Burgos (Sportsnaut): Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres Can Land Legendary Pitcher For Cheap Following New Trade Report. “A Jacob deGrom trade for a bargain price is there for the taking.”
• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): Carter Hawkins Leaves 3 Key Cubs Pitchers on Rotation Bubble, Clarifying Team’s Winter Plan. “It’s not often that a team executive declining to commit to roles for players creates more certainty about a team’s path through the offseason, rather than less. That’s where things stand for the Cubs now, though.”
• Doug Schwaub (Chicago Cubs On SI): Cubs Have Perfect Trade Chip At Their Disposal as Hunt for Pitching Continues. “The Chicago Cubs have the perfect trade chip to upgrade their pitching. Will they jump at the opportunity?”
• Paul Niemiec (North Side Baseball): If the Cubs Are Out on Tarik Skubal, What Do They Do Next? “How can the Cubs build a brand-new pitching staff without making a bid on Tarik Skubal?”

Free Agency/Trade — Hitting

• Randy Holt (North Side Baseball): Why Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki Leaving Could Be Blessing in Disguise for Cubs. “The Cubs have a clear preference for the style of position player they like to roster. They should look outside that type in pursuit of new corner outfielders.”
• Paul Magno (Yardbarker): Are the Chicago Cubs giving up on the 2027 outfield? “The team can’t afford to let so many key position players go. With so much to do this winter/spring, however, it looks as though Chicago may be deciding to let one of their needs go attended in order to place more attention on rebuilding their pitching staff.
• Micahel Cerami (Bleacher Nation): Is Jarren Duran a Cubs Trade Target? Could They Get Him Another Way? Should They Even Want To? “Duran, 30, has two years of control remaining via arbitration. And because of all those homers and stolen bases and general early-career success, he’s projected to earn some real money this time around.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs still weighing their outfield options — and the catcher puzzle is not yet clear. “The avenue they take to fill those spots will depend on whether Suzuki rejects his qualifying offer, which the Cubs expect to happen, and how his market plays out.”

Assorted Stories:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): 10 memorable moments from Pete Crow-Armstrong’s MVP season for Chicago Cubs. “Over the course of six months, he provided plenty of highlights, most notably these 10 MVP-defining moments.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): PCA, Bregman land more offseason accolades with All-MLB honors. “As for Bregman, the third baseman did not really catch fire at the plate until the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, Crow-Armstrong led the Majors with 4.7 fWAR, but Bregman was tied for second with Tatis with 3.7 fWAR.”
• Jason Ross (North Side Baseball): Carter Hawkins and the State of the Cubs’ Youth Movement. “At the General Manager Meetings in Las Vegas, Carter Hawkins stood amid a swarm of press and discussed many things, including some young players and their potential future.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Business as Usual at the GM Meetings? Legal Battle Coming? And Other Cubs Bullets. “Folks expecting a mad flurry of deals at the very start of the offseason have been disappointed. Those deals will come, but it seems like a big squeeze in the final week of November is more likely than an early rush.”

Food For Thought:

Ruthie Cecelia Foster (born February 10, 1964) is an American singer-songwriter of blues and folk music. She mixes a wide palette of American song forms, from gospel and blues to jazz, folk and soul. She has often been compared to Bonnie Raitt and Aretha Franklin. Foster has been nominated for multiple Grammy Awards for Best Blues Album and Best Contemporary Blues Album, and won her first Grammy on February 2, 2025.

Foster is from Gause, Texas, and comes from a family of gospel singers. At the age of fourteen, Foster was a soloist in her hometown choir and was certain that her future would revolve around music. After high school, she moved to Waco, Texas, and she began fronting a blues band, learning how to command a stage in the bars of Texas. Hoping to travel and gain a wider world perspective, Foster joined the United States Navy, and soon began singing in the naval band Pride which played pop and funk hits at recruitment drives.

Following her tour of duty, Foster headed to New York City where she became a regular performer at various local folk venues. Atlantic Records heard of Foster’s talent and offered her a recording deal with the intent of cultivating her as a budding pop star, but Foster was not interested in a pop career. When her mother fell ill in 1993, Foster left New York and returned to Texas while she cared for her mother who died in 1996.

In 1997, Foster self-released the album Full Circle, the success of which paved the way to a long relationship with the record label Blue Corn Music. Foster’s awards list includes three Grammy nominations (Let It Burn for Best Blues Album, The Truth According to Ruthie Foster for Best Contemporary Blues Album, and Promise of a Brand New Day for Best Blues Album), her numerous wins at the Blues Music Awards, including three awards for Best Female Vocalist and one for DVD of the Year for Live At Antone’s, and Foster’s crown for Best Female Vocalist at the 2013 Austin Music Awards. Foster earned the 2025 Grammy Award for Best Contemporary Blues Album for her album Mileage, her 13th album. She continues to tour and her shows have spanned across the U.S., Italy, Germany, Spain, and Cuba.

The voice sounds like A.I., but the fish isn’t. 🙂

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

As Thanksgiving approaches, Astros fans have plenty to be grateful for.    

A year ago, Josh Hader was in the early stages of completing a throwing program with the intent of being ready for spring training. He’d ultimately return to action on June 3rd in a thrilling 11-9 win over the Pirates, overcoming a 5 run deficit. It would be the first save of Hader’s amazing comeback. Hader would appear in 45 contests and convert all 26 of his save opportunities. Opposing clubs managed to only hit .125 against him. We can be thankful that Hader has two more guaranteed years left on his deal.

Speaking of comebacks, Hayden Wesneski returned after enduring a 15-month rehab stint from Tommy John surgery. His recovery began throwing off a mound in the Florida Complex League before steadily progressing to Double-A. On July 29th, Wesneski was activated from the injured list and earned a win in his season debut verses the Angels. His signature sweeper pitch would notch 6 wins for an Astros staff in dire need of quality starts.   

The head of the table for our tribute is none other than Jose Altuve. Sitting at 2,111 regular season contests, he’ll pass Jeff Bagwell next season for second place in all-time games played. As the face of the franchise, he’s worth every penny of his $30 million dollar contract. A pair of championships, along with seven silver slugger awards along with 9 All-Star appearances. His most recent milestone occurred on September 9th when he notched his 2,500th career hit verses the Phillies.    

Last but not least, there’s Yordan Alvarez. After an injury shortened 2025 season, Alvarez would appear in a career high of 158 games. Everyone points to the massive offensive production but for me, the most remarkable stat was centered around his overall plate discipline, drawing 109 walks against only 120 strikeouts. Yordan is entering the prime of his career, set to turn just 30 years of age next June.   

The Astros gave their fans plenty to be thankful for in 2026 and the table is already being set for more.

Good morning Birdland,

Despite the unknowns of the next CBA, teams are starting to get a little busy this offseason. Emilio Pagán agreed to a deal with the Tigers on Tuesday, Evan Phillips inked a three-year contract with the Braves on Thursday, and then just yesterday World Series champ Jake Bauers joined the Red Sox on a four-year pact.

Bauers was one of the best hitters available in what is an admittedly thin free agent class. He had an outstanding 2026 season, slashing .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs as a 30-year-old. The campaign sticks out like a sore thumb in an MLB career. According to Baseball Reference, Bauers was worth 3.3 bWAR in 2026 alone, bringing his career bWAR up from the red to 2.0. The Red Sox will be betting that he is simply a late bloomer and can largely maintain that performance moving forward.

FanGraphs had projected Bauers, who did have a qualifying offer attached to him, would get a three-year deal worth $51 million ($17 million AAV). Instead, he gets four years at $58 million ($14.5 million) from Boston. Phillips had a projection of one year at $6.8 million. He was able to land a three-year deal worth $35 million ($11.67 AAV) in Atlanta.

The Bauers deal feels fair. He got less AAV but an additional year despite the QO. That’s pretty good. Phillips, a former Oriole that was born in Salisbury, has to be ecstatic about his new contract. He barely pitched between the end of 2024 and this past July due to injuries to his rotator cuff and then Tommy John surgery. But he was great towards the end of this past season and likely factors into high-leverage innings for Atlanta.

What does all of that mean? Honestly, who knows. Public projections often differ from how team’s are evaluating talent internally. But it certainly doesn’t seem like teams are too worried about the talk of a salary cap, at least not for 2027 anyway. MLB Trade Rumors explains that the Red Sox exceeded the 2026 CBT threshold and are on pace to do so again in 2027, if the system is in place. The signing of Phillips will push the Braves close to the line as well.

All that to say that if the Orioles were hoping Trevor Rogers might give them a discount on account of everyone being artificially strapped for cash, they had better think again. There is money to be spent, and it could come sooner than later, regardless of what’s happening behind the scenes.

Links

Mariners Notes: Infield Needs, Trade Candidates, Sloan | MLB Trade Rumors
Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are listed as potential trade candidates that fit what the Mariners are looking for. The O’s and M’s have long seemed like good partners due to the former’s glut of infielders and the latter’s wealth of pitchers. And yet, nothing has happened. Maybe that changes this winter.

This, that and the other | Roch Kubatko
Roch touches on the Orioles closing situation. Ryan Helsley and Félix Bautista are both likely to factor in, but injuries are a concern. Yennier Cano has closing experience, though he has never really been a fit in the ninth inning. The team needs a real backup plan. How much they are willing to pay for it is unclear.

As a lockout looms, MLB teams say it’s ‘business as usual.’ Is it really? | The Baltimore Banner
Obviously not. But what else are they gonna say? MLB will have their next season at some point, and the holes on a team’s roster are not going to fix themselves, so they have to make moves to address them. It won’t all happen overnight, and it’s quite likely that there will be a multi-week/month pause in the middle. But for now, they do what they can.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Freddy Galvis turns 37 today. He spent part of the 2021 seasona s the Orioles everyday shortstop before being dealt to the Phillies for a minor leaguer.
• Curt Schilling is 60 years old. His storied 20-season MLB career began in Baltimore, where he spent parts of three seasons from 1988 through ‘90. The Orioles’ decision to then trade him, along with Steve Finley and Pete Harnisch, to the Astros in exchange for Glenn Davis is widely regarded as the worst trade in team history.

This day in O’s history

1973 – Jim Palmer is named AL Cy Young after winning 22 games and leading the league with a 2.40 ERA. The 28-year-old Palmer is a first-time winner and will go on to earn the award twice more in his Hall of Fame career.

2005 – The Orioles announce that neither Sammy Sosa nor Rafael Palmeiro will be returning to the team next season. Both players claim they wish to keep playing. Sosa will eventually sign back with the Rangers, but not until 2007. Palmeiro never gets another MLB deal.

2023 – Brandon Hyde is named Manager of the Year in the American League. Marlins’ boss Skip Schumaker earns the NL honor.

Good morning, Purple Row!

Here’s what’s going on with the Colorado Rockies and the rest of Major League Baseball.

2026 Rockies Defensive Play of the Year

There were some outstanding defensive plays made by the Colorado Rockies in 2026, but Purple Row readers have spoken. Cole Carrigg and Kyle Karros’ remarkable 8-5 double play against the Chicago Cubs on June 17 has been voted the Rockies’ Defensive Play of the Year.

The Rockies were trailing 8-2 in the bottom of the fifth inning at Wrigley Field when Matt Shaw lifted a 345-foot fly ball into straightaway center field. Carrigg tracked it down, getting behind the baseball and positioning himself to make a throw to third base, where Ian Happ was attempting to advance.

Carrigg made the catch and unleashed a 99.8-mph throw toward third, generating so much momentum that he went tumbling into a barrel roll after releasing the baseball.

But the throw was only half the play.

The ball arrived on the infield side of third base, forcing Karros to reach out to make the catch before lunging back toward the bag. He managed to apply the tag to Happ just before the runner reached third, completing the double play.

It was an outstanding throw by Carrigg and an equally impressive piece of glove work by Karros. And considering the two are best friends, it’s fitting that they combined for one of the most memorable defensive moments of the season.

Carrigg’s arm strength was hardly a secret by the end of 2026. He averaged 96.9 mph on his qualifying outfield throws, ranking fourth among MLB outfielders and second among center fielders, behind only Oneil Cruz. His throw against the Cubs was among the hardest of the season to record an out.

The play didn’t ultimately change the outcome of the game. Colorado chipped away at Chicago’s lead but eventually fell 8-6.

Perhaps the best reaction came from the Cubs broadcast, where the announcer couldn’t help but admire what he’d just witnessed.

“Man, Cole Carrigg can play.”

And Kyle Karros can, too.

Rockies news & links

How Colorado’s depth could help DePodesta make moves this offseason | MLB.com

Thomas Harding spoke with Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta about the team’s positional depth and how it might factor into offseason moves. DePodesta believes Colorado has seven or eight MLB-ready outfielders and acknowledged that there simply isn’t room for everyone. He also confirmed that the team’s surplus has already come up in trade discussions. We’ve spent plenty of time talking about the possibility of moving position players to acquire pitching, and it sounds like the front office is exploring those options as well. The Rockies have some interesting young talent, but figuring out how to turn that depth into pitching could be one of DePodesta’s most important tasks this offseason.

Could trading Hunter Goodman be in play for Rockies? | Denver Sports (Podcast)

Speaking of potential trades, the Shapiro and Piro podcast from Denver Sports discusses whether the Rockies should consider moving All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman. It’s an interesting question. Goodman is one of Colorado’s most productive players and could certainly be part of the team’s future. On the other hand, he’s also one of the few players on the roster who might bring back a substantial pitching return. Trading him would be a difficult decision, but it’s one the Rockies should at least be willing to consider.

Rockies’ Rising Offense May Be Just Getting Started | Sports Illustrated

Maddy Dickens of Sports Illustrated is optimistic about Colorado’s offense heading into 2027. With young players like Cole Carrigg and Charlie Condon entering the picture, Dickens believes the Rockies could reach 80 wins next season if they can add some average pitching. That’s quite a leap for a team coming off 104 losses, but hey, we could all use a little hopium this offseason.

Around MLB

Baseball’s Payroll Disparity Problem Explained. The Case for a Salary Cap and Floor | MLB.com

MLB executive vice president of baseball operations Morgan Sword lays out the league’s argument for a salary cap, salary floor, and expanded revenue sharing ahead of the next round of collective bargaining. The video focuses on the growing payroll disparity between clubs and how MLB believes its proposed changes could improve competitive balance. Of course, the MLBPA sees things differently and has strongly opposed a salary cap. With the possibility of a work stoppage hanging over the next CBA negotiations, it’s worth hearing the league’s position directly, even if you don’t agree with its proposed solution.

New Top 100 MLB Prospect Rankings for 2026-27 Offseason | Bleacher Report

Joel Reuter released his updated Top 100 prospect rankings, and four Rockies made the list. Ethan Holliday checks in at No. 35, followed by Charlie Condon (47), Roldy Brito (55), and Tyler Bell (91). It’s nice to see Colorado represented, but there’s a familiar theme here: all four are position players. The Rockies have assembled some intriguing young offensive talent, but developing pitching remains a significant organizational challenge.

Wheeler, Alvarez earn MLB Comeback Player of the Year awards | Associated Press

Awards season continues with Zack Wheeler and Yordan Alvarez taking home the National League and American League Comeback Player of the Year awards. The Associated Press also provides a rundown of several other honors, including the Hank Aaron Awards for Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong, Relievers of the Year Mason Miller and Bryan Baker, and Executive of the Year Erik Neander. There’s plenty to discuss as baseball continues handing out its 2026 hardware.

2027 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Candidate: Dusty Baker | FanGraphs

Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs takes a deep dive into Dusty Baker’s remarkable life and career as the longtime manager gets another opportunity at the Hall of Fame. Baker’s story goes well beyond the dugout. He fished with Satchel Paige, spent time with Jimi Hendrix, managed five franchises to the postseason, and eventually won a World Series. Jaffe examines the successes, controversies, and disappointments along the way while making the case for Baker’s induction. If you enjoy baseball history, this is a terrific read.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks! 

The 2026 Palm Beach Cardinals had five teenage prospects post a wRC+ above 100 while taking 100+ plate appearances: Miguel Hernandez, Sebastian Dos Santos, Yairo Padilla, Ryan Mitchell, and Alexander Frias. That seems pretty good! There were only 14 players total that met these criteria in the ten-team Florida State League. 

In 2021, the FSL was loaded with prospects. There were 18 teenagers in the Low-A league to accrue at least 100 plate appearances. The wRC+ leaderboard for that season has some names you will recognize.

1. Jordan Walker, 19, 208 wRC+
2. Orelvis Martinez, 19, 149 wRC+
3. Colt Keith, 19, 143 wRC+
4. Masyn Winn, 19, 115 wRC+
5. Jasson Dominguez, 18, 105 wRC+
6. Elly De La Cruz, 19, 105 wRC+
7. Dariel Lopez, 19, 101 wRC+
8. Maikol Escotto, 19, 99 wRC+
9. Victor Mesa Jr., 19, 95 wRC+

Fast-forward to the present day, and the six bolded players have a Steamer-projected wRC+ of 95 or better heading into next year. All except Winn have a projection of 106 or better. From this quick snapshot, I can conclude that the Cardinals should get an MVP candidate and a couple of All-Stars out of their current group of teenage prospects! 

2021 was also the first year that Statcast data was publicly available in the FSL. I thought it would be interesting to compare the underlying metrics of the 2021 class with the Cardinals’ young guns of today. I do want to emphasize that all the numbers we are looking at are super small sample sizes and groups of players. I am not trying to force conclusions by looking at this data, but I do think it is some interesting context to consider. 

Before we get to the comparison with our current Cardinals prospects, let’s see if any metrics jump out as being especially important in predicting future success. I separated the 2021 class into two groups, the Hits (Walker, Keith, Winn, Dominguez, De La Cruz, Mesa Jr.) and the Busts (the 12 teenagers who have not made it yet). Here are the average metrics for each bucket. 

Not surprisingly, the players who ended up being good were better at 18 and 19 than their counterparts. Masyn Winn was the only player from the “Hit” group to post an average exit velocity below 86.6 mph. In this small sample size, max EV was actually even more important with all six Hits posting max EVs of 109.8 mph or higher. Contact% and Zcontact% were fairly good indicators as well. Chase% was actually better for the Busts thanks to some wild early swinging from a trio of future Hits. 

And here is how the Cardinals prospects stacked up. 

A couple of disclaimers when looking at the data for the Cardinals prospects. Padilla, Frias, and Hernandez each had fewer than 130 plate appearances, so take their metrics with a spoonful of salt. The other obvious difference is that the 2021 class of Hits only had one 18-year-old while the Cardinals group included three.

Let’s run through each Cardinals prospect and see how they compare to the 2021 Hits, Busts, and one just-for-fun comp from the Hit group.  

Ryan Mitchell, OF

Mitchell’s metrics aren’t great and fit in comfortably with the Bust cohort. One silver lining is that he was hitting with much more authority earlier in the year before trailing off in July and August (average EV from 87.2 to 81.9). It is reasonable to assume that the grind of his first pro season wore him out in the second half. Hopefully he comes to camp with some added strength. His contact and discipline metrics would look fine for a power hitter, but won’t be playable unless he adds some serious pop. 

Yairo Padilla, SS

Padilla checked in with only 128 plate appearances, but you can see from his Statcast metrics why the Cardinals are so high on him. The concern with Padilla is that he struggles to hit the ball in the air. His FSL groundball rate was a terrifying 64%. For reference, Jordan Walker was at 55% in his FSL stint. Padilla will be a good test for the Cardinals player development group, but this will require him staying on the field. He has played in only 35, 38, and 27 games the last three seasons.

Alexander Frias, OF

Frias only had 110 plate appearances with the Cardinals. The comparison to De La Cruz would look better if we had Frias’ data from his time with the Brewers. He hit a ball 117 mph while in the complex league and carried a 77.7% contact rate at the Brewers’ Low-A affiliate. Frias will, presumably, start 2027 in Palm Beach and hopefully will start bringing more of his prodigious power into game action. 

Miguel Hernandez, SS

Hernandez blitzed the FSL in his 102 plate appearances to the tune of 163 wRC+. His underlying metrics do not jump off the page, but Hernandez is the youngest player in our cohort (turned 18 on June 2). He was listed at 6’0″ and just 145 pounds when he signed, but Brian Walton at The Cardinal Nation now has him up to 165 pounds. Similar to Dos Santos, how he develops physically will go a long way to determining his ultimate ceiling. It is encouraging to see he has already hit a solid 108.8 mph max EV.

Sebastian Dos Santos, SS

Dos Santos had 255 plate appearances in Low-A, so he has a decent sample size. Not captured in this table is the fact that Dos Santos has an elite ability to drive the ball in the air to his pull side. The Cardinal Nation lists Dos Santos at 6’0″ and 173 pounds, up from his weight at signing of 140 pounds. Dos Santos is a switch hitter and had a bit more success, both from a production and underlying metrics perspective, from the left side. 

The Dos Santos/Keith comp is about as close as I am going to get on any of these from a metrics perspective. If Dos Santos can turn into a better defensive version of Keith, that would be a heck of a player. Still, I am holding out hope that Dos Santos can get to another gear in his power as he fills out and matures. 

What next? 

So, what do we need to see next season? All six of the 2021 Hits advanced a level in 2022, and four of the six reached Double-A. Even Dominguez, the lone 18-year-old, repeated Low-A, cleaned up his plate approach, and finished the year in Double-A. The current cadre of Cardinals prospects is young, but to stay on pace with their 2021 forefathers, they will need to advance quickly. I will be watching to see if Mitchell comes to camp with added muscle, if Dos Santos and Hernandez can add a few ticks of EV thump, and if Padilla and Frias can improve their batted-ball quality. 

Both Major League Baseball and the Players Association continue to share offers to put an end to the ongoing dispute. This time, MLB released a statement on X with a few proposed changes. 

The league says its proposal would address two major concerns among fans: competitive balance and local blackouts. The plan includes a 50/50 split of baseball-related revenue between teams and players, a salary cap and floor to regulate team spending, and equal sharing of media revenue among clubs. MLB believes these changes would reduce revenue disparities, increase player compensation and create a more competitive game while helping address blackout issues.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the Players Association will be willing to agree to MLB’s proposal. With both sides continuing to publicly share their ideas, there is still plenty to be worked out before an agreement is reached.

More Braves News:

Evan Phillips spoke with the media on Friday to discuss his return to Atlanta. 

Our 2026 player review series continues with DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

MLB News:

The Boston Red Sox agreed to a four-year, $58M deal with first baseman Jake Bauers. 

For the first time since 2020, the American League MVP was awarded to a man not named Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. Those two have dominated the decade of baseball, becoming the national—and in Ohtani’s case—global face of the sport, and that’s been a successful transition away from the likes of Mike Trout and the Houston Astros. Baseball is hot right now!

And maybe we’re starting to see a little bit of a changing of the guard, again. Pete Crow-Armstrong just ended Ohtani’s run of three consecutive MVPs, putting together one of the finest, top-to-bottom baseball seasons we’ve ever seen. Ohtani’s a month younger than me; players and especially pitchers don’t tend to get better after age 33. Judge will turn 35 in April; Father Time comes for all of us.

All of this brings me to one Robert Andrew Witt, Junior. The Kansas City shortstop put up his third-straight seven-win season in 2026, good for second in all of baseball behind PCA. He was once again a finalist for the league’s top individual honor, finishing third, trailing Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero. In so many was for the man who, if not for PCA, would be the best all-around player in baseball, it’s a rinse and repeat system.

Last year Witt had an 8.0 fWAR season, finishing fourth in MVP voting behind Judge, Cal Raleigh and the previous perennial MVP nominee, José Ramírez. In 2024, Witt had maybe the best single season by a shortstop…ever. Since integration, only two players—Cal Ripken Jr. in 1991 and Lou Boudreau in 1948—have been better than the Royal’s 10.5 fWAR season. Both Cal and Lou won MVPs.

Bobby just had the misfortune to have to once again go up against Aaron Judge, the man with the best prime of any player since Barry Bonds’ head grew three sizes. Witt’s 2025 season ranks 15th on that list by the way.

J-Ram very famously has the most combined MVP shares without having actually won the award, 3.61 in his Hall of Fame-caliber career, one spent chasing down Mike Trout before Ohtani and Judge took over the AL. After receiving votes in each of the last four seasons, though, Witt is starting to move up that all-time list. His 44.76 percent share this year bumps his career MVP share to 1.8, from 202nd all time in the metric to a tie for 136th, with Rod Carew and Robin Yount, who of course both took home the hardware in their careers (Yount twice).

Part of this as touched on above is Witt having to go up against demons, but another part of it is the way he puts up value. Since entering the league in 2022, Witt has the most second-most fWAR (yes, better than Ohtani!) but critically, Dansby Swanson is the only non-catcher to eclipse him in dWAR. As we saw last year with Cal Raleigh in the MVP race, a supreme offensive performance just gets rewarded at a level that supreme defense does not. Outside of pitchers and catchers for obvious reasons, the slugger gets MVP.

And of course playing for mediocre Kansas City teams doesn’t help the case. Aaron Judge has near single-handedly dragged the Yankees into the postseason, the Cubs season is probably a failure without PCA’s effort this year. That Witt’s only stepped foot on the postseason once—perhaps not coincidentally, his runner-up finish in 2024—has affected how voters behave, even if I wonder whether it should.

If Judge is back to being Judge next year, or Kevin McGonigle takes another step forward, or any number of things happen, there odds are forever against Bobby Witt Jr. winning an MVP. If he should never get there, I hope he ends up atop that MVP shares list, passing J-Ram. Then again, Chris Sale never won a Cy Young until that one year it all went right.