Jonathan Lansner

Author's posts

Feb 23

Ignore rising mortgage rates. Job market will show what’s next for housing!

Should real estate watchers — from professionals to homeowners — think rising mortgage rates will kill the housing market?

As a common logic goes, pricier financing translates to fewer qualified buyers … and those folks who can pass a lender’s muster will have less cash to spend thanks to higher mortgage rates. A double-whammy for housing?

Unfortunately, that thinking misses a key ingredient in the real estate math. No, it’s not where inventory levels are headed. Or the size of the crowd shopping for property.

It’s more basic: Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.

Too often we forget it takes solid employment to sanely secure real estate. And what is a main reason interest rates rise? A toasty economy bordering on overheating. When unemployment is scarce and wages are rising.

Yes, higher rates nudge some house hunters out of the market. And I truly feel for those folks. But that same surging economy typically creates numerous work opportunities with salaries that can create house hunters, too. That helps answer the “Who can afford these homes?” question.

To help explain my thesis, I filled my trusty spreadsheet with quarterly data for mortgages, employment, housing and inflation — California and U.S. — collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Starting with 1975 through last year’s third quarter, I looked at periods spanning four quarters and ranked them by the severity of change in the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Next, I compared how employment and real estate prices, as measured by a federal price index, performed when rates rose the most and compared those trends with eras when rates dipped the most.

Just so you know, in these times of fast-rising rates since 1975, mortgage rates rose an average 1.5 percentage points in a year. When they took step dives, rates took an average 1.6 percentage-point decline. And here’s what I found …

Rates up, prices up

At first glance, owners should cheer rising rates.

California homes appreciated 10.5 percent in 12-month periods when rates rose the most vs. 2.2 percent in periods when mortgage rates took their deepest dives.

Nationally, home prices rose 6.7 percent when rates rose the most vs. 3.1 percent when they took their deepest dives.

Those are pretty significant gaps.

Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.

Do not forget this.

California employment grew 2.5 percent annually with rates jumping compared with just a 0.5 percent gain in 12-month periods when mortgage rates tumbled. Similar trends were found across the country: U.S. jobs gained 2 percent when rates rose the most vs. 0.4 percent when mortgages dived.

Watch the job market, please!

Inflation’s bite

Remember, a key role of the Federal Reserve is to watch the cost of living.

The central bank adjusts the rates it controls accordingly to manage inflation. When mortgage rates rose the most — with strong home appreciation and job growth — inflation averaged 6.3 percent annualized growth. When rates fell dramatically, inflation averaged 2.2 percent.

“Real” profits

Inflation bumps up the cost of living and cuts into the theoretical value of housing profits.

Ponder what you find when you subtract the inflation rate from home appreciation, or what economists call the “real” rate of return.

California home gains in times of mortgage rate jumps shrank to 4.2 percent annualized when inflation was subtracted vs. after-inflation gains of 0.1 percent with diving rates.

And nationally, inflation-adjusted home gains were actually better in falling-rate periods: U.S. price averaged 0.5 percent a year when rates rose the most, trailing 0.9 percent gains when rates plummeted.

Hashtag: “#inflationmatters”

Longer-term prism

Rising rates aren’t an instant break on the economy or real estate. So what about, say, two full years after big rate hikes?

Rising-rate periods still win, but by significantly less: In California, 8.8 percent annual gains in home appreciation  two years after rates soared vs. 7.5 percent when they tumbled. Nationally, the ups win, too: 6.4 percent vs. 4.7 percent two years later.

Why? Seems cheaper rates get bosses in the hiring mood … eventually!

California jobs grew 2.1 percent two years after rate hikes vs. 2.2 percent when rates tanked. Nationally, the annualized hiring gain of 1.5 percent after rates skyrockets was actually topped by 2 percent job growth two years after steep dips in rates.

The bottom line

Four decades of economic history strongly suggests pricer mortgages can cool, not kill, a housing market. That’s because of a main reason rates rise: more paychecks.

So when interest rates soar, it’s usually time for most people to be thankful for the forces nudging finance costs higher.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/23/ignore-rising-mortgage-rates-homeowners-please-watch-the-jobs-market/

Feb 23

Irvine housing: How many million-dollar ZIPs in the city?

Homebuying in Irvine in the October-to-December period outpaced countywide sales activity.

Using CoreLogic data, we compared recent sales patterns for all residences vs. results the year-ago period.

Sales in Irvine sales rose as 1,242 residences were purchased in the latest period vs. 1,187 a year earlier. That’s a gain of 4.7 percent vs. a decline of 1.3 percent countywide. Prices were up in five of eight Irvine ZIP codes, including two with million-dollar medians.

Neighborhood trends in Irvine for year-end from CoreLogic’s report …

Irvine ZIP code 92602 — 112 homes sold in the period vs. 153 a year earlier. That’s a sales loss of 26.8 percent. Median selling price of $1,242,000 vs. $1,016,367 a year earlier, a gain of 22.2 percent.

ZIP 92603 — 65 homes sold vs. 54 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 20.4 percent. Median of $1,410,000 vs. $1,063,348 a year earlier, a gain of 32.6 percent.

ZIP 92604 — 62 homes sold, same as a year ago. Median of $700,000 vs. $702,811 a year earlier, a loss of 0.4 percent.

ZIP 92606 — 32 homes sold vs. 45 a year earlier. That’s a sales loss of 28.9 percent. Median of $763,000 vs. $772,267 a year earlier, a loss of 1.2 percent.

ZIP 92612 — 96 homes sold vs. 93 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 3.2 percent. Median of $717,000 vs. $640,179 a year earlier, a gain of 12 percent.

ZIP 92614 — 55 homes sold vs. 57 a year earlier. That’s a sales loss of 3.5 percent. Median of $615,000 vs. $590,211 a year earlier, a gain of 4.2 percent.

ZIP 92618 — 514 homes sold vs. 435 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 18.2 percent. Median of $803,000 vs. $845,263 a year earlier, a loss of 5 percent.

ZIP 92620 — 306 homes sold vs. 288 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 6.3 percent. Median of $945,500 vs. $859,545 a year earlier, a gain of 10 percent.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results by ZIP …

Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year earlier.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year earlier.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year earlier, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/23/irvine-housing-how-many-million-dollar-zips-in-the-city/

Feb 22

Southern California’s priciest hotels are in what 5 towns?

Where’s the most expensive neighborhood to find a hotel room in Southern California?

According to CBRE Hotels’ year-end report, the priciest nights in 2017 were in Beverly Hills with an average room rate of $545. The second priciest was Santa Monica at $364 and third was “other West L.A.” communities at $318. No. 4 was Newport Beach at $289 and fifth was West Hollywood at $282.

For the budget watchers, the cheapest place to sleep in 2017 was in the South Bay communities where an average night cost $94. Second lowest was San Bernardino at $109. The No. 3 bargain was San Diego’s Sports Arena/Old Town neighborhood at $112.

As for overall hotel business conditions, you’re seeing more “vacancy” signs at Southern California hotels. But room rates continue to rise at most hotels from San Diego through the desert and the Los Angeles-Orange County coast up to Ventura County, according to CBRE.

Average room rates last year rose in all six Southern California regions tracked while vacancies rates improved in just four …

Los Angeles County: $208 average room rate last year, up 0.8 percent in a year. Rooms were 82.1 percent full, down from 82.9 percent a year earlier.

Orange County: $188 a night last year, up 2.5 percent in a year as hotels were 80.4 percent full, down from 80.6 percent a year earlier.

Western Inland Empire: $117 a night last year, up 4.5 percent in a year as hotels were 78.1 percent full, up from 77.9 percent a year earlier.

Coachella Valley: $186 a night last year, up 0.4 percent in a year as hotels were 64.5 percent full, up from 64 percent a year earlier.

San Diego County: $187 last year, up 2.7 percent in a year as hotels were 80.9 percent full, up from 80.2 percent a year earlier.

Ventura County: $141 last year, up 0.9 percent in a year as hotels were 79.4 percent full, up from 78.8 percent a year earlier.

At the neighborhood level, CBRE Hotels found room rates last year up in 34 of 44 local markets tracked while vacancies rates improved in 20 markets. 

Biggest price hike? Tops was Palmdale/Lancaster up 10 percent to $122 a night. Second, San Bernardino up 6.6 percent to $109. No. 3, La Jolla was up 5.9 percent to $244.

Biggest price cuts? Largest was around the Magic Mountain theme park in Santa Clarita, down 7.3 percent to $141. Next, San Fernando Valley rates fell 3.7 percent to $178; then came “other West L.A.” down 3.3 percent to $318.

Fewest “vacancy” signs? Cheaper rooms in Santa Clarita also gave it Southern California’s best occupancy rate at 87.5 percent. Next was the LAX neighborhood at 85.3 percent; followed by Marina Del Rey at 85.3 percent.

Most vacancies? It’s seasonal tourist towns. Coachella’s “Down Valley Resorts” had the lowest occupancy at 61.5 percent followed by Palm Springs at 64.1 percent and Huntington Beach at 68.7 percent;

Biggest cash flow improvement? Using the industry’s “RevPar” index, best was Palmdale/Lancaster, up 13.1 percent, thanks to market-leading price hikes. It was followed by Temecula (up 6.9 percent) and Long Beach (up 6.6 percent.)

Worst cash flow performance? Price cutting hurt in Santa Clarita, with RevPar down 8.1 percent. Then came Huntington Beach, down 5.8 percent, and Camarillo, off 4.8 percent.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/22/southern-californias-priciest-hotels-are-in-what-5-towns/

Feb 21

Southern California hotel jobs hit record high, but hiring pace is slowest since 2011

Southern California hotel owners grew their staffs at the slowest rate since the recession but still added 1,225 workers last year to a record 91,850 jobs.

According to job statistics compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the number of workers at lodging facilities in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties rose by 1.4 percent last year, a sharp drop from 2.8 percent in 2016 and an average 2.9 percent annual pace of hiring between 2011 and 2015.

That slowdown in hiring — remember, that’s still growth mode — is on par with an overall cooling of the region’s tourism trade which has been one of the hottest performers in the recovery from the Great Recession.

Since the recession’s end, bosses at hotels, motels and other accommodations businesses in the four-county region covered by the Southern California News Group added 15,550 workers more than restoring the 6,225 positions lost in the dark economic days of 2008 through 2010.

California hotel owners are pruning hiring efforts, too. Statewide, the industry added 2,975 workers last year to a record 225,050 jobs. That 1.3 percent growth rate for 2017 was below the 1.5 percent rise in 2016 and an average 2.2 percent annual pace of hiring in 2011-2015. Since the recession’s end, California hotels added 28,525 workers vs. 13,375 cuts in 2008-2010.

Nationwide, it appears hotel owners are playing catch-up.

The U.S. industry added 43,050 workers last year to a record 2 million jobs. That 2.2 percent growth topped Southern California’s for the first time since 2011; U.S. hiring for 2017 was faster than hotels’ average 1.8 percent annual pace of nationwide hiring in 2011-2015.

It adds up to Southern California — long known for its tourism business — finding lots of competition across the nation.

Please note the hotel staffs through the region equal 4.6 percent of all such workers nationwide and 41 percent of statewide employment in the accommodations industry.

But hoteliers’ hiring in the past quarter-century or so has been brisker elsewhere: Southern California staffs at hotels, motels and other lodges are up 13 percent since 1990; and statewide growth was 15 percent.

In the other 49 states? Hotel jobs increased by 24 percent.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/21/southern-california-hotel-jobs-hit-record-high-but-hiring-pace-is-slowest-since-2011/

Feb 20

Orange County’s Lyon Homes to pay $460 million to enter Texas market

  • RSI is selling the Athens project in Moreno Valley. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

    RSI is selling the Athens project in Moreno Valley. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

  • RSI is selling 51 East in Austin. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

    RSI is selling 51 East in Austin. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

  • RSI is selling these homes in Round Rock, Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

    RSI is selling these homes in Round Rock, Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

  • RSI is selling the Trails at Leander in Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

    RSI is selling the Trails at Leander in Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

  • RSI is selling the Legends Way in Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

    RSI is selling the Legends Way in Texas. (Courtesy: RSI Communities)

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Orange County homebuilder William Lyon Homes will spend $460 million to enter Texas.

Newport Beach-based Lyon announced Tuesday, Feb. 20, that it will buy RSI Communities, a builder selling homes locally in the Inland Empire and in Texas in Austin and San Antonio. Their specialty is a hot niche: entry-level homes.

RSI began as an affordable-housing idea from Newport Beach entrepreneur Ron Simon, whose collection of businesses is best known for making home cabinetry. The homebuilder, founded in 2008, is building locally in Beaumont, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Moreno Valley, Murrieta and San Jacinto. According to RSI’s corporate webpage, pricing starts in the low-$300,000 range. RSO controls 3,173 home lots in the Inland Empire.

But Lyon’s key to the deal, expected to close by the end of March, is exposure to Texas homebuilding. At year-end 2017, RSI controlled 6,895 lots in Austin and 1,060 in San Antonio and is currently selling homes from the high-$100,000 range around San Antonio to a community in Austin where pricing starts in the high $300,000.

“The addition of RSI Communities to the William Lyon Homes family enables us to strengthen our position in the land-constrained Southern California market and gain immediate size and scale in Austin as a foothold in the attractive Texas region, which we view as the first step in a broader Texas strategy,” said Lyon CEO Matthew Zaist.

Lyon’s last major foray out of its home state of California was jumping into the Portland and Seattle regions by buying Polygon Northwest Homes in 2014.

And in 2017, that deal paid off. Lyon delivered 16 percent more homes — 3,239 — than the previous year as homebuilding revenues rose 28 percent to a record $1.8 billion.

Lyon’s top market was California (919 sales, up 27 percent in a year) and followed by Oregon (747 sales, up 4 percent). Washington was the No. 4 market with 516 sales up 79 percent.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/20/orange-countys-lyon-homes-to-pay-460-million-to-enter-texas-market/

Feb 19

California’s livability ranking drops to 4-year low

People have to be in a good frame of mind to spend — whether in corporate life or as a consumer.

And while California’s “well-being” is slipping, according to one measurement, the state’s quality of life continues to rank among the nation’s most desirable.

Pollster Gallup’s annual scoring of the quality of life in each U.S. state ranked California No. 14 for 2017. That was down one notch from No. 13 in 2016 to its lowest level since a 17th place ranking in 2013. In 2015, California was No. 11; in 2014 it ranked 12th.

Gallup’s “Well-Being Index” is built through continuous polling of American adults on five key traits of livability. From 160,498 telephone interviews last year, Gallup placed California’s livability right behind economic arch-rivals Florida and Texas and just ahead of Arizona.

Best quality of life in America, as seen through the eyes of its residents? South Dakota, then Vermont, Hawaii and Minnesota. Worst? West Virginia, Lousiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

For 2017, Gallup says California’s best score came in its “physical” attributes, measuring a state population’s healthiness. That’s what sun can do, I guess. California ranked third in the nation in 2017 after being No. 6 in 2016 and third in 2015. Best state in ’17? Vermont. Worst? West Virginia.

California’s worst quality-of-life showing from this index was not much of a surprise, scoring low for “financial” status, a metric of the population’s sense of economic security.

Still, high-cost California ranked 28th nationally in 2017 — so residents aren’t as bummed by the monetary challenges as you’d think. Still, Gallup’s financial ranking for California was down from No. 20 in 2016 and 21st in 2015. Best state in ’17? North Dakota. Worst? Mississippi.

The biggest improvement by California last year was in “community,” a score of local spirit. California rose eight spots to No. 27 from 35th in 2016, the fourth-biggest jump in the category. The state ranked 29th in ’15. Best state in ’17? Vermont. Worst? Louisiana.

California was roughly stable for two other well-being markers.

For “social,” gauging personal relationships, California ranked No. 12 vs. 14th in 2016 vs. 18th in 2015. Best state in ’17? Florida. Worst? Rhode Island. And “purpose” — tracking the populace’s satisfaction with daily life — found California stationary at No. 13 after falling in 2016 from No. 10 in 2015. Best state in ’17? South Dakota. Worst? Rhode Island.

Look, do you need a survey to tell you this nation is a tad grumpy? Gallup found the American perception of quality of life slipped in 2017. The national livability score took its largest dip in the index’s 10-year history as the well-being index fell in 21 states — including California.

So, what are our big beefs? Less “positive energy” from friends and family. Fewer people enjoying “what they do each day.” And missing “a leader in their life who makes them feel enthusiastic about the future.”

To be fair, life isn’t totally bleak by this math. Gallup found a record share of Americans saying they’re “thriving.”

It’s worth noting this unhappiness uncovered by Gallup — both across the land and in the state — is a contrast to other consumer polling that shows shopper optimism in financial prospects at or near the highest levels this century.

Why the buoyancy gap? Well, the economy is doing pretty well. But perhaps how hard it’s become to earn and keep the paycheck is taking its toll.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/19/californias-livability-ranking-drops-to-4-year-low/

Feb 19

Los Alamitos homebuying dips 5% as sellers don’t budge on prices

Los Alamitos’s housing market looked struggling in the fourth quarter: Prices flat as sales fell.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier, show these five trends for Los Alamitos’s homebuying …

1. 53 homes sold in the latest period vs. 56 a year earlier.

2. That’s a one-year sales decline of 5.4 percent vs. a countywide homebuying loss of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price in the latest period of $890,000, same as 12 months earlier.

4. Flat pricing compares to the countywide median at $698,000, up 5.7 percent in a year.

5. The Los Alamitos 90720 median ranks No. 18 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs vs. No. 13 a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county
From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year earlier.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year earlier.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. a year earlier, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/19/los-alamitos-homebuying-dips-5-as-sellers-dont-budge-on-prices/

Feb 18

Brea homebuying drop 27%: 13 facts to know

Homebuying in Brea in the fourth quarter could not keep pace with countywide sales activity.

Using CoreLogic data, we compared sales patterns for all residences in the October-to-December period vs. a year ago. Sales in Brea fell as 132 residences were purchased this year vs. 181 a year ago. That’s a loss of 27 percent vs. a decline of 1.3 percent countywide.

Here are neighborhood trends in Brea for the 2017’s last three months from CoreLogic’s report:

 Brea ZIP code 92821 — 107 homes sold vs. 129 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 17.1 percent. Median selling price of $675,000 vs. $650,289 last year, a gain of 3.8 percent. That median ranked No. 47 highest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

Brea ZIP 92823 — 25 homes sold vs. 52 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 51.9 percent. Median of $817,500 vs. $706,569 last year, a gain of 15.7 percent. That median ranked No. 24 highest out of 83.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county
From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/18/brea-homebuying-drop-27-13-facts-to-know/

Feb 18

Brea homebuying drop 27%: 13 facts to know

Homebuying in Brea in the fourth quarter could not keep pace with countywide sales activity.

Using CoreLogic data, we compared sales patterns for all residences in the October-to-December period vs. a year ago. Sales in Brea fell as 132 residences were purchased this year vs. 181 a year ago. That’s a loss of 27 percent vs. a decline of 1.3 percent countywide.

Here are neighborhood trends in Brea for the 2017’s last three months from CoreLogic’s report:

 Brea ZIP code 92821 — 107 homes sold vs. 129 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 17.1 percent. Median selling price of $675,000 vs. $650,289 last year, a gain of 3.8 percent. That median ranked No. 47 highest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

Brea ZIP 92823 — 25 homes sold vs. 52 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 51.9 percent. Median of $817,500 vs. $706,569 last year, a gain of 15.7 percent. That median ranked No. 24 highest out of 83.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county
From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/18/brea-homebuying-drop-27-13-facts-to-know/

Feb 18

Renters become the majority in Anaheim, Santa Ana, San Bernardino

Attention landlords: Your ability to grow your businesses means that three more big Southern California cities — Anaheim, Santa Ana and San Bernardino — have more renters than homeowners.

That trio was among 22 big U.S. cities that became renter-majority in the past decade, according to a new report from online rent-search firm RentCafe. Using U.S. Census Bureau data from 2016 and 2006, RentCafe found stunning growth in renters nationwide.

The U.S. population living in rentals grew 23 million in the 10-year period vs. 700,000 more people living in homes they owned. That surge of renters translated to 42 of the 100 most-populous U.S. cities having more renters than owners in 2016 vs. 20 in 2006. Renter’s share grew in 97 of the 100 big cities tracked over the decade.

The growing renter population could translate to political muscle, nudging some cities to enact pro-tenant initiatives — from building more “affordable” apartments and first-time buyer homes to rent-control policies.

Renting soared after the Great Recession after numerous owners lost their homes to foreclosure and potential buyers had borrowing abilities hit by financial woes. It didn’t help that in the economic recovery purchase prices soared faster than incomes. In addition, developers have chosen to concentrate on building more apartment complexes than new-home communities as rents soared due to growing need for apartments.

For example, Anaheim’s soaring renter count can be tied to new rental projects in the Platinum Triangle neighborhood near Angel Stadium.

RentCafe says the city had 200,424 renters in 2016, the 43rd largest count among the 100 most-populous towns. That represented 57.9 percent of Anaheim’s population — the 15th highest share nationally — vs. 46 percent in 2006. That jump of 11.6 percentage points was the fourth largest percentage-point gain among the nation’s big cities.

In Santa Ana, its 186,433 renters (No. 49 nationally) was 56.6 percent of the city’s population in 2016, 17th highest share, and up from 26 percent in 2006. That 8.4 percentage-point jump was the 23rd biggest.

San Bernardino’s 110,871 renters make up 54 percent of its population, No. 27 nationally. The city joined the renter-majority club with its renter share growing by 5.9 percentage points since 2006, the 56th biggest jump.

Anaheim, Santa Ana and San Bernardino joined three big Southern California cities that had renter-majority locales in 2006, according to RentCafe …

Los Angeles: 2.37 million, second largest count among the top 100, or 60.8 percent of the population. That’s the No. 8 share nationally. Since 2006, renter’s share has risen by 3.5 percentage points — a relatively small (No. 83) increase. (FYI: New York City is America’s top tenant city with 5.44 million renters or 65.1 percent of its population.)

Long Beach: 283,183 renters, 29th largest, or 61.4 percent of the population and No. 7 share nationally. Since 2006, the renter share has risen by 5.5 percentage points, the No. 57 increase.

Additionally, the gap between folks living in homes they own and renters narrowed in two other big Southern California cities …

Riverside: 141,022 renters or 45.3 percent the of population, No. 62 nationally. Since 2006, renter’s share has risen by 6 percentage points, the No. 49 increase.

Irvine: The city just missed becoming a renter majority with 128,547 renters or 49.7 percent of population, No. 43 nationally. Since 2006, its renter share has risen by 9.4 percentage points, 18th largest jump.

RentCafe’s report doesn’t think this growth in the renter population means ownership is on the way out.

“Undoubtedly, the recession had a great impact on homeownership, and it’s hard not to agree if you look at the data from the last decade or so. However, it looks like it takes more to discourage Americans from buying a house than that,” the report said. “As the years go by, it seems more and more certain that the fact that renting has seen a sudden gain in popularity is more a reaction to the economic crisis than a paradigm shift in the Americans’ attitude toward housing.”

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/18/renters-become-the-majority-in-anaheim-santa-ana-san-bernardino/

Feb 18

Costa Mesa homebuying up 5% as 2017 ends

Homebuying growth in Costa Mesa in the fourth quarter outpaced countywide sales activity.

Using CoreLogic data, we compared sales patterns for all residences in the October-to-December period vs. a year earlier. Sales in Costa Mesa rose as 250 residences were purchased last quarter vs. 238 a year earlier. That’s a gain of 5 percent vs. a decline of 1.3 percent countywide.

Here are neighborhood trends in Costa Mesa for the 2017’s last three months from CoreLogic’s report:

Costa Mesa ZIP code 92626 — 97 homes sold vs. 92 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 5.4 percent. Median selling price of $750,000 vs. $710,227 last year, a gain of 5.6 percent. That median ranked No. 32 highest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

Costa Mesa ZIP 92627 — 153 homes sold vs. 146 a year earlier. That’s a sales gain of 4.8 percent. Median of $861,500 vs. $757,696 a year earlier, a gain of 13.7 percent. That median ranked No. 20 highest out of 83.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year earlier.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year earlier.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year earlier, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/18/costa-mesa-homebuying-up-5-as-2017-ends/

Feb 17

Fountain Valley homebuying drops 23%: 13 facts to know

Fountain Valley’s housing market looked mixed in the fourth quarter with prices warming but sales fell.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier, show these five trends for Fountain Valley’s homebuying …

1. 94 homes sold this year vs. 122 a year ago.

2. That’s a one-year sales decline of 23 percent vs. a countywide homebuying loss of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price this year of $738,500 vs. $707,375 12 months earlier.

4. That’s a price gain of 4.4 percent. The countywide median was $698,000, up 5.7 percent vs. the year-ago period.

5. The Fountain Valley 92708 median ranks No. 34 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs vs. No. 30 a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/17/fountain-valley-homebuying-drops-23-13-facts-to-know/

Feb 17

California’s home to 13 of nation’s most-profitable housing markets

Another reason California living is so pricey: The state’s home to 13 of the most-profitable housing markets in the nation.

I filled my trusty spreadsheet with Attom Data Solutions’ calculations of profits made by the typical house seller in 155 major metropolitan areas. I learned that 2017’s average gains — sales price minus purchase cost — were dominated by Bay Area markets.

Tops was Silicon Valley where a seller’s average profit was $426,488, according to Attom’s math. Then came San Francisco-Oakland, No. 2 at $318,000; Santa Cruz-Watsonville, No. 3 at $250,188; Napa, No. 4 at $209,375 and Santa Rosa, No. 5 at $207,813.

Not that more southernly California sellers did poorly. The Los Angeles-Orange County market was No. 6 nationally at $202,875; San Luis Obispo, No. 8 at $168,063; Ventura County, No. 9 at $166,938; Salinas, No. 11 at $162,050; San Diego, No. 12 at $161,063; Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, No. 13 at $157,188; Truckee, No. 15 at $139,938 and Vallejo-Fairfield, No. 18 at $129,438. And the Inland Empire? No. 24 at $101,000.

Let’s be honest. Rising prices paid by buyers create financial pressures for house hunters. But that same appreciation also creates wealth for sellers, which can create discord between the haves (owners) and the have-nots (wannabe owners).

Not only does the shot at riches make many owners naturally protective of their neighborhoods — the so-called “NIMBY” (not-in-my-backyard) complex — big-dollar sale proceeds can further juice real estate markets when that cash goes toward future purchases of other properties.

Profitably speaking, California is in good company. The seven other U.S. markets cracking this Top 20 list are among some of the most desirable places to live: No. 7 nationally was Maui with average 2017 seller profits of $174,470; No. 10 Honolulu at $162,888; No. 14 Seattle at $154,379; No. 16 Boston at $137,375; No. 17 Key West at $130,438; No. 19 Portland at $122,900 and No. 20 Denver at $122,756.

 California dominance of these profitability rankings in 2017 was not simply due to the state’s high-priced market. California also had 12 metro areas in the top 20 when Attom calculated a theoretical return of investment for these sellers.

And fat profits for California sellers wasn’t a one-time event: The state also had 13 metros in the top 20 largest house-selling gains when looking at average profits from 2013 through 2016. But please don’t forget that ownership comes with no financial guarantees.

For example, in Los Angeles and Orange counties, that average profit of 202,875 in 2017 was up from $139,688 in 2013-16. But the typical L.A.-O.C. seller after housing’s bubble burst was taking an average $9,193 loss in 2008-12. That was the 65th worst performance in the nation.

Or more bleakly, look what happened in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Last year’s average profit of $101,000 was up from $62,734 in 2013-16. That’s a fair rebound from astounding average losses of $87,314 taken by the typical seller in 2008-12.

Yes, losing $87,314 — fifth worst in the nation.

Or let me put the California real estate rollercoaster through another prism. In those five years of housing hell, the state did dominate these profitability rankings in a far different way.

For the 2018-12 debacle, 12 California markets were among the biggest money-losers in the nation.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/17/californias-home-to-13-of-nations-most-profitable-housing-markets/

Feb 17

Homebuyers pay 9.9% less in San Juan Capistrano: 13 trends to ponder

San Juan Capistrano’s housing market looked mixed in the fourth quarter: Prices cooled as sales rose.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier, show these five trends for San Juan Capistrano’s homebuying …

1. 147 homes sold this year vs. 144 a year ago.

2. That’s a one-year sales gain of 2.1 percent vs. a countywide homebuying loss of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price this year of $755,000 vs. $837,958 12 months earlier.

4. That’s a price decline of 9.9 percent. The countywide median was $698,000, up 5.7 percent vs. the year-ago period.

5. The San Juan Capistrano 92675 median ranks No. 30 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs vs. No. 20 a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/17/homebuyers-pay-9-9-less-in-san-juan-capistrano-13-trends-to-ponder/

Feb 16

Anaheim homebuying falls 9%. What ZIP had the biggest drop?

Homebuying in Anaheim in the October-to-December period lost more ground than the cooled countywide sales pace.

Using CoreLogic data, we compared recent sales patterns for all residences vs. results the year-ago period. Sales in Anaheim sales fell as 627 residences were purchased this year vs. 690 a year ago. That’s a loss of 9.1 percent vs. a decline of 1.3 percent countywide.

Sales fell in five of seven ZIP codes. Here are neighborhood trends in Anaheim for year-end from CoreLogic’s report …

Anaheim ZIP code 92801 — 83 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 106 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 21.7 percent. Median selling price of $495,000 — ranked No. 78 of 83 ZIPs countywide — vs. $478,261 last year, a gain of 3.5 percent.

ZIP 92802 — 60 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 55 a year ago. That’s a sales gain of 9.1 percent. Median of $518,500 — No. 74 — vs. $495,224 last year, a gain of 4.7 percent.

ZIP 92804 — 131 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 133 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 1.5 percent. Median of $536,000 — No. 69 — vs. $517,375 last year, a gain of 3.6 percent.

ZIP 92805 — 103 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 141 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 27 percent, Anaheim’s biggest. Median of $516,000 — No. 75 — vs. $484,962 last year, a gain of 6.4 percent.

ZIP 92806 — 54 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 41 a year ago. That’s a sales gain of 31.7 percent. Median of $590,000 — No. 61 — vs. $551,402 last year, a gain of 7.0 percent.

ZIP 92807 — 128 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 132 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 3 percent. Median of $685,000 — No. 44 — vs. $633,087 last year, a gain of 8.2 percent.

ZIP 92808 — 68 homes sold in the most-recent period vs. 82 a year ago. That’s a sales loss of 17.1 percent. Median of $633,000 — No. 53 — vs. $640,040 last year, a loss of 1.1 percent.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the cheapest third of the county’s market — the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/16/anaheim-homebuying-falls-9-what-zip-had-the-biggest-drop/

Feb 16

Disneyland’s soaring ticket prices make sense. And cents.

How much should one day at Disneyland cost?

Seemingly every year, the Anaheim resort ups its admission prices. And as tradition has it, there’s the post-hike debate: Are Disneyland tickets worth that much?

This time around, Disneyland raised the cost of most of its entrance options with the highest one-day, one-park ticket going up $11 to $135. That jump is only slightly more than the 7 percent average annual growth in this price point since 2000 when admission was $43.

Seventeen years ago, theme park owner Walt Disney Co. embarked on a big-dollar string of investments in Anaheim, adding a second gate — California Adventure — and overhauling much of the original Disneyland. And visitors have paid for those upgrades.

But is Disney guilty of hiking fees too much? I loaded some pricing data into my trusty spreadsheet to see what the direct competition is getting and where overall consumer prices and spending is headed. I discovered that a few benchmarks — those reflecting high local costs and a growing thirst for entertainment — suggest Disneyland’s more in the pricing ballpark than many people think.

But let’s start with basic inflation. Imagine if Disneyland only upped admission at the same pace as increases in the Consumer Price Index. Remember, the most widely-watched benchmark for the cost of living does create a pricing mindset for executives, too.

If that 2000 ticket inflated simply by the CPI it would cost $62 today. Yes, Disneyland increased ticket prices by triple the CPI’s average 2.3 percent gain over 17 tears. Considering the huge investment Disney has made in Anaheim, above-inflation price hikes aren’t unexpected.

But CPI is a broad measure of how inflation hits the common household budget. Here is how nine other pricing trends would push up Disneyland admission from 2000 …

Movie tickets: If Disneyland only hiked pricing by what Hollywood studios got, admission would be $72 today. Two hours of entertainment vs. a day’s worth is a tricky comparison. But the limited rise of movie pricing is noteworthy. Why? Movies have plenty of competition, from your TV to growing online alternatives. That explains the 3 percent average annual hikes at the box office. Disneyland’s a fairly unique experience.

Gasoline: If pump prices are your go-to consumer cost barometer, a day at Disneyland should cost $77 in 2018. Gasoline prices have been a wild ride the past two decades. But overall, they’ve risen only a 3.6 percent annual rate in 17 years. We’ll note that by this driving metric, Disneyland admission would have cost $139 in 2008 as the price of gas peaked!

Broadway: Shouldn’t pricing of two of the world’s great entertainment options move in step? But if Disneyland upped pricing by what New York theaters got since 2000, getting into the theme park would cost $88 today. Apparently, Anaheim has more price glitz than the 4.3 percent average annual increase in tickets to the Big Apple’s top shows.

Modest competitors: Knott’s and Six Flags are positioned to be the lower-cost alternatives to Disneyland. And their pricing logic shows. If the Anaheim resort had only got the price hikes that these two local theme parks got over 17 years, today’s Disneyland ticket would run between $89 and $94.

Industry pay: Yes, the leisure industry jobs aren’t typically big paycheck gigs. But look at one measure of California earnings in the industry: Workers have enjoyed pay hikes twice overall inflation, averaging 5 percent since 2000. If tickets rose like paychecks in the amusement business, today’s Disneyland ticket would run $97.

Home prices: California living is expensive and that probably helps explains the amusement industry’s pay increases. By one federal index, California homes have appreciated at a 5.3 percent annual rate since ’00. If Disneyland admission rose like your home’s value, a ticket would cost $101 today.

Super Bowl ad: Nothing says brash and pricey in the entertainment world like buying 30 seconds of advertising during pro football’s championship game. Yes, this year’s game cost advertisers $5.2 million per half-minute but that’s up only an average 5.2 percent annually since 2000. At that rate, a Disneyland ticket would cost $102 today.

Main competitor: Universal Studios plays the high-end theme park game like Disneyland, even in ticket prices. The L.A. attraction has upped their standard ticket at nearly the Disneyland pace: a 6.6 percent annual rate since ’00. So if Disneyland only got what its biggest foe got, its priciest ticket would go for $128.

Entertainment spending: It’s an era of fun. By one federal measure, dollars spent on entertainment tickets, minus sports, has soared at a 7.9 percent annual rate in 17 years. Be thankful: This metric would make a Disneyland ticket $156 today. This upswing helps explain the “Who can afford what Disneyland charges?” question: Look, Americans are growing their budgets for “fun” at 3.5 times the pace of inflation.

So, complain all you want about the fattened tab at Disneyland. Anyone who’s waited in long lines at both Anaheim parks — regardless of whether it’s high tourism season or off-peak — knows there’s a huge flock of folks who buy into the pricey magic.

And, imagine how extra jammed Disneyland would be if admission was significantly cheaper!

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/16/disneylands-soaring-ticket-prices-make-sense-and-cents/

Feb 16

Laguna Beach home sales jump 32%: 13 facts to know

House hunters apparently liked Laguna Beach in the fourth quarter.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier, show these five trends for Laguna Beach’s homebuying …

1. 123 homes sold this year vs. 93 a year earlier.

2. That’s a one-year sales gain of 32.3 percent vs. a countywide homebuying loss of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price of $1,800,000 vs. $1,849,949 12 months earlier.

4. That’s a price decline of 2.7 percent. The countywide median was $698,000, up 5.7 percent vs. a year earlier.

5. The Laguna Beach 92651 median ranks No. 5 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs, same as a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

4. In the county’s cheapest third, the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year earlier.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year earlier.

8. As for relative bargains, there were six ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year earlier, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/16/laguna-beach-home-sales-jump-32-13-facts-to-know/

Feb 16

Cypress home prices dip 3%: 13 facts to know

Cypress’s housing market looked mixed in the fourth quarter.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier, show these five trends for Cypress homebuying …

1. 146 homes sold this year vs. 132 a year ago.

2. That’s a one-year sales gain of 10.6 percent vs. a countywide homebuying loss of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price this year of $622,500 vs. $641,753 12 months earlier.

4. That’s a price decline of 3 percent. The countywide median was $698,000, up 5.7 percent vs. the year-ago period.

5. The Cypress 90630 median ranks No. 57 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs vs. No. 44 a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

From 2017’s fourth quarter, eight countywide trends to ponder:

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544 — up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median selling price was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. In the county’s cheapest third, the 27 least expensive ZIPs, median of $622,500 and below — 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs — median of $789,050 and higher — 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down (0.60) percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were 6 ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/15/cypress-home-prices-dip-3-13-facts-to-know/

Feb 15

Orange County missing 1-in-10 home sellers

Orange County house hunters have 10 percent fewer options as the homebuying season begins.

ReportsOnHousing tracks homebuying patterns found in real estate broker networks: supply (active listings); demand (new escrows in past 30 days); and “market time” (a measure of selling speed of days it takes a typical listing to enter escrow).

The “spring” home shopping season quasi-starts right after the Super Bowl. As of Feb. 8, ReportsOnHousing found 3,981 listings in Orange County, down 10 percent in a year and down 15 percent vs. the 2013-17 average. Demand was 2,286 new escrows, down 5 percent in a year and down 10 percent vs. 2013-17 average.That adds up to a market time of 52 days vs. 56 a year earlier vs. an average 57 days in 2013-2017.

ReportsOnHousing found similar patterns in the four-county region — Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties: 25,199 listings, down 9 percent in a year and down 14 percent vs. 2013-17 average;. 11,790 new escrows — was down 3 percent in a year and down 5 percent vs. ’13-17 average; market time of 64 days vs. 68 a year earlier and an average 71 days in 2013-2017.

Elsewhere in the region …

In Los Angeles County …

Supply: 9,182 listings, down 8 percent in a year and down 14 percent vs. 2013-17 average.

Demand: 4,932 new escrows, down -4 percent in a year and down 7 percent vs. ’13-17.

Market time: 56 days vs. 58 a year earlier and an average 61 days vs. ’13-17.

In Riverside County …

Supply: 7,951 listings, down 12 percent in a year, and down 14 percent vs. ’13-17.

Demand: 2,626 new escrows, down 4 percent in a year, and down 6 percent vs. ’13-17.

Market time: 91 days vs. 100 a year earlier and an average 101 days in ’13-17.

In San Bernardino County …

Supply: 4,085 listings, down 4 percent in a year and down 10 percent vs. ’13-17.

Demand: 1,946 new escrows, up 3 percent in a year and up 6 percent vs. ’13-17.

Market time: 63 days vs. 67 a year earlier and an average 75 days in ’13-17.

In case you missed it …

Los Angeles-Orange County homeownership at 9-year high, but 4th lowest in U.S.

California migration: Come for jobs, leave to retire

Southern California’s job growth only boosts its unaffordability

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/15/orange-county-missing-1-in-10-home-sellers/

Feb 14

Aliso Viejo year-end homebuying: Prices warmed; sales up

Aliso Viejo’s housing market finished 2017 on an up note.

CoreLogic statistics for the October-to-December period compared with the same period a year earlier show these five trends for Aliso Viejo’s homebuying …

1. 208 homes sold this year vs. 201 a year ago.

2. That’s a one-year sales gain of 3.5 percent vs. a countywide homebuying decline of 1.3 percent.

3. Median selling price this year of $522,500 vs. $500,000 12 months earlier.

4. That’s a price gain of 4.5 percent. The countywide median was $698,000, up 5.7 percent vs. the year-ago period.

5. The Aliso Viejo 92656 median ranks No. 72 priciest out of 83 Orange County ZIPs vs. No. 69 a year earlier.

See full-year 2017 CoreLogic results …
Beach ZIPs | North O.C. | South O.C. | Mid-county

Eight countywide trends from 2017’s fourth quarter vs. 2016 …

1. At the neighborhood level, prices were up in 66 of 83 Orange County ZIP codes compared to the previous year.

2. Sales rose in 38 of 83 Orange County ZIPs.

3. Builder sales were 1,544, up 4.2 percent from a year ago. Median for new homes was $869,000 — up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

4. Price matters: In the county’s cheapest third, the 27 least expensive ZIPs (median of $622,500 and below), 2,540 homes sold. That’s down 0.9 percent compared to a year ago.

5. In the 27 priciest ZIPs (median of $789,050 and higher) 3,236 homes sold. That’s down 0.2 percent.

6. In the 11 Orange County ZIPs with medians above $1 million, sales totaled 720 homes, down 1.9 percent in a year. There were 10 seven-figure ZIPs a year ago.

7. In the county’s 16 beach-close ZIPs, 1,484 homes sold in the latest period, down 0.6 percent vs. a year ago.

8. As for relative bargains, there were 6 ZIPs with medians under $500,000 with total sales of 440 homes. A year ago, 14 ZIPs had medians under $500,000 with 1,039 sales, or a drop of 58 percent in a year.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/14/aliso-viejo-year-end-homebuying-prices-warmed-sales-up/